the audio may be a bit rougher this week as it was recorded on the move, but hopefully it doesnt take away from the episode and it should be back to normal next week. Thanks to all those who voted for this topic - I hope you're happy with the result.
@MyName-lq7rv and with those golf carts they are still able to push Ukraine back. Russias has another 140k men ready to go on the offensive split into 2 different groups each targeting 1 of the objectives. At best Ukraine will be able to supply and man 1 of those areas enough to halt the offensive there. Underestimating Russia makes no sense to me and I don't get why people blind themselves with jokes about golf carts
Listening to that quote from the US general about drones not changing the strategic situation reminded me of the pre WWII “gun club” talking down air power in the navy.
He sounds like someone who wants his retirement gig at Raytheon or Boeing, and they want to sell multimillion dollar systems in multi-billion dollar contracts, not a bunch of much cheaper drones.
@@joby10095You’ve heard one quote and you think you know the person? Did you read the paper? I think you’re drawing conclusions well beyond Perun’s conclusions and I further think your conclusions are not in evidence. Prove me wrong.
Hi Perun, a Dad here. I greatly appreciated your Dad frequency joke. It was spot on. Please do not feel pressure from non-Dads and keep the Dad jokes coming!
On a super silly note, Perun, if you haven't yet seen, that Russian tank with the pallet of anti-drone EW was NOT knocked out by drones. It was the last survivor, and ended up ramming another knocked out tank. The crew panicked and ran. It was still operational. Because Ukraine posted videos of their guys sneaking to it at night and just driving off with it. (And pictures of the guys posing next to it after they had it safely stashed somewhere)
Sounds like those Russian's maybee had the only sensible goal - survive! And if their tank was the last survivor, they could hardly be blamed for running away. (Maybee even ramming another tank suited their plan.)
@MicMc539 Nobody should be impartial in this war. Perhaps its not as black and white as WW2 where people who would be comically evil if they didnt have a 50 million+ kill count and (mostly) democracies with freedoms and such were at war. But this is still a rather expansionist effort from an authoritarian regime onto a free and democratic country. If you are impartial to this you are a fool. Even supporting russia is better than being impartial to this. Then at least people can tell you are a fool and you dont have the excuse of some sort of moral high ground that doesnt even exist against ukraine.
@@hudsonflores5478 Quite the rant there. It seems you're not impartial either, hooray for you. Typical Gamer comment defending a another childish Gamer. Children should be seen not heard. Peace.
In the late 1800s, the rise of the battleship-killer torpedo led to the creation of the new warship type, the torpedo boat. In response, navies created a newer class of warship, the torpedo boat destroyer, to counter them. In time, the "torpedo boat" part got dropped, and the new small warships were simply called "destoyers." They have grown in size and replaced the battleship as the principal surface warship. How will the Rise of Drones change measures and countermeasures? It's an exciting time.
As someone who works in computing who has seen the Slaughterbots video... I can tell you, I don't call it exciting, because you've probably seen nothing yet. 😞
@inquisitorbenediktanders3142 yeah ship classification makes no sense. You've got Cruisers, Frigets, Destroyers all with overlapping capabilities and tonnages nothing is consistent and it is all seemingly arbitrary.
@@Tewhill357 Yet another Kiwiland invention stolen by Emutopia. Lord Lamington's chef simply copied the Wellington cake, which has been the subject of a false flag conspiracy intended to delegitimatize Kiwiland's claim. See also pavlova, and Phar Lap.......
"I don't understand how this might be used, so I'm going to pretend it's useless because I'm scared of what will happen to my job when I'm forced to learn how it works" is a disturbingly common sentiment throughout the upper echelons of many industries, but it's remarkable to hear that kind of thinking come from a general of all things.
It is just as common throughout military high commands, because they are all trained on what won the previous war. Not at all unique to our times either, when you start unwrapping military history you quickly notice a pattern that the people you learn of as geniuses of their time weren't quite that genius, the rest of the commanders they encountered just happened to mostly be idiots. Hannibal was famously completely countered by Fabius who just had the idea of "we lost 5 times but Hannibal can't actually take Rome so let's just ignore him"... a strategy which most Roman commanders disagreed with, therefore the army was given co-command by another general who ran the army into Hannibals army as 6th times the charm. Cannae is famously not the battle where the Romans finally defeated Hannibal and won the 2nd punic war.
I would hesitate to go that far. The US military has been going all in on counter drone technology for years now. US forces worldwide have been harassed by FPV drones for years now and when it first started the only tool most commanders had to deal with them was Military Police with Mossberg 500 shotguns and birdshot. The DOD responded to this by dumping billions into next generation SHORAD capabilities and anti-drone EW weapons. They were discussing things like reactivating M6 Linebackers and M167s to cover gaps at first but then industry responded with electronic anti-drone guns and a Stryker with an Apache cannon and stinger pods that rolled out quick, followed by lasers out the ass. That general was probably saying what he said because the US Army and Navy already have a robust counter drone capability already and are already developing it further. The main laggard in the anti-drone system category is clearly the US Air Force, which has recently had a high profile incident with FPV camera drones overflying Langley Air Force Base in Maryland.
This is carriers vs battleships before Midway talk. Drones are going to be integral to military operations in a few years because noone will want to go without.
Drones arent a revolutionary change, they are an evolution of capability. They put airborne reconnaisance and light close air support in the hands of frontline infantry companies rather than integrated by the squadron at corps or division level. We saw the same with the machinegun being devolved to sectipn level and artillery devolved to companies in the form of light mortars. RPGs did the same with AT capability, and mechanization the same with armour and heavy transport capacity. It is going to give smaller units more firepower, thus further enhancing defenders advantage, and reinforce the paradigm of positional warfare that has developed in ukraine.
He is describing weapons that cost peanuts and make no profit, but are highly effective on a real battlefield. This is the worst nightmare of USA military companies.
Which is why the US companies will produce hundreds of thousands of them at twice the price and ten times the capability. Munitions only turn a profit in numbers. And no one has ever refused more ammo. A 155mm shell clocks in at what, 3000 dollars? A highly advanced single-use attack drone mass-produced by e.g. Lockheed-Martin, will probably cost less than half, with all the capabilities described in the video.
@@SpookyEng1they are incredibly easy to make. You can even just buy a sponge cake, cut it into cubes, then dunk it in chocolate and coconut. When I was about 12, I was living in Copenhagen (my parents worked there) and I made lamingtons to take to school for a ‘bring something from your homeland’ event (I went to an international school).
And do note that part of the shambolic French performance in the early war stemmed from overconfidence in the superiority of their new rapid-fire artillery system... resulting in insufficient investment in other parts of the firepower equation. ;)
As someone who had to deploy object tracking on live feed in the earlier years of neural net, my guess for what's happening in 24:08 (bounding box attaching to the thing that the vehicle is hiding behind rather than the vehicle itself) is that the bounding box is being updated based on target image in the previous frame. In this case, when you get partial occlusion of your actual object by something else, you frequently end up with a situation where the bounding box includes that other object in one frame, and then in the next frame decides that other object that got included in the bounding box in the previous frame is actually the target of interest.
My guess is that they run a small Yolo model. I work at a company doing something similar, and the biggest issue is the training data. There is tons of false positives.
Reminds me AI generated videos, where created images in the frame constantly shift and change into other ones. Has no real working memory or physical understanding, just filling in bits.
Love the channel perun. The reason an artillery shell is 70-80% metal to charge ratio isn't because of the violent nature of artillery guns firing. An artillery shell with a 3mm wall will still fire perfectly fine. The ratio of explosive to steel casing has been chosen to maximise fragmentation pattern in a 360 degree arc.
It's odd how we still forge the projectile instead of casting them out of ductile iron. The US Air Force has apparently decided to follow the example of Ordtech in Switzerland and cast the bodies of Mk-82 out of ductile iron instead of forging them. This produces a much improved fragmentation pattern.
Have a buddy working a Raytheon cryptically tell me in 2019 that he was a delivery man. He said the push was to close the hypersonic gap and develop a drone-mother architecture. Cool to see what he was talking about.
There is a war going on in Ukraine, and they are using drones. And you are in the comments talking about your friends developing weapons, and drones, etc. when russia loses 90% of their tanks and trucks to drones. you are just casually talking about it in the comments. For the love of god stfu and tell perun to take this video down.
@@SocratesWasRightAnybody who is willing to do a few minutes of research on the public internet could ascertain the same. The US military is anything but opaque.
@@jonathanpfeffer3716 could be. Some secrets are more secret than others. Still, it is good practise not to share secrets and if a friend is foolish enough to reveal something: do not tell it forwards.
Was not expecting Helldivers here, but if that game taught me anything it's that that forest is, indeed, a valid military target in need of some 500kg bombs.
What's interesting to me about the drone war is this: 1) None of these concepts is new or novel. Whether it's RAND or some random fiction writer, lots of people have talked about this type of warfare and indeed have talked about MUCH more sophisticated variations. 2) The technology needed to operate at the current level has been around for awhile now (all of this has been in the civilian toy domain for a decade or more) 3) Yet until the Ukraine war no one was really using this stuff or even stockpiling this stuff in the quantities you'd expect given its extreme cost-effectiveness. it seems like military planners were content to move at a glacial pace in order to avoid taking a wrong step. 4) I wonder how much budget is going into developing drone swarm and counter-technologies in the US or China, who have the resources to litter the earth with these drones if they decide to.
Well, as somebody who works in the field, I can tell you that both those areas are seeing increasing funding and have been over the last 5 years, but especially the last 2-3. But, as Perun states, it's a chicken-egg problem - do you develop a counter-drone solution and field it NOW, knowing that the drone tech is evolving rapidly and anything you come up with to counter today's drones will be outdated rapidly? Or do you keep working on tech-demo like solutions, continuously evolving and improving the concepts, and then commit to production when a conflict arises and be reactive? Also, a BIG problem is that most of the parts are made in China. The motors are almost exclusively made in China. Getting "Blue UAS" (ie, parts all made in the USA) is like 5-10x the price for every component. The various open-source drone autopilot firmwares (especially Ardupilot and PX4) allow you to do a LOT right out of the box, and they're becoming increasingly integrated with "offboard" (misnomer, it just means a computer other than the AP's computer, but can be on the vehicle or off the vehicle providing additional computing capabilities like automatic target recognition) through tools like Robot Operating System (ROS) and various machine learning/AI solution are becoming more and more commonplace and making it very easy to add highly capable complex autonomy solutions. And as he stated, the biggest problems right now are all the EW jamming limiting direct FPV control and GPS , but they have been finding solutions to both of these - either via using all the networks (USA's GPS, EU's Galileo, Russia's Glonast or China's Beidu) so they would have to jam all of them to totally lose a fix, and/or using optical flow or terrain matching solutions. Some of these can be VERY VERY accurate. But the short answer is, yes lots of new funding, LOTS of research and development taking place here in the USA (and likely in China).
To really really oversimplify it, the Ukrainians have with their Queen Drone, done what Lockheed and Boeing has spent Billions on designing platforms, over a decade, that will cost hundreds of millions per unit, which yes may be able to make a cup of coffee, two plates of Lamington Cakes, all with a 0.002M rating on the stealth scale while sending data to F -22 and F 35's. So even the US could afford ohhh perhaps 10 of them if they short the chocolate on the Lamington Cakes. Give Ukraine 5 years and a lab, and 2 Billion, I would bet that they could develop a deployable system that could basically make Taiwan uninvadable, render North Koreas massive artillery stocks worthless, and have the 82nd Airborne dropping into Minsk to ASK the Ukrainians and Poles to stop heading to Moscow. Say 10 -20 Billion in production costs, and you would see 10's of millions of drones led by 100's of thousands of "Queens" deployable by freaking WWII Liberty Ships - in the HUNDREDS. End of Story. And a lesson for the US, remember better is the enemy of good enough.
Indeed looking at the civilian drone light shows that seem popular, it's not hard to imagine a loitering mother controlling a lot of cheap drones a long way from the front line.
@@mikekopack6441 Interesting that you confirm a lot that I would expect. If one can add all tose diffrent GPS-style systems in parallell, how about the feasability of a drone beeing able to use a very wide frequency spectrum for remote control? Then one can also use frequency hopping, making it pretty darn difficult to interfere with? Just an amateur thought though.
"the costs imposed on an enemy can be holistic, they don't have to take the form of burning equipment" This is why I and so many others enjoy Perun. He's just good at thinking.
I'm surprised there wasn't any mention of "Home on Jam" technology being used in drones. It does not take much technical complexity or extra mass to build RF direction finding equipment to follow a jamming signal back to its source, and ram into it with a HEAT warhead strap-on. Any HAM radio operator could easily build that kind of add-on from spare radio parts. Mix a couple Home on Jam drones into each wave, programmed to un-jam the other drones by slamming into the brightest RF source if they lose signal, and otherwise target the nearest fire control radar signal. Then you would have hard-kill ECCM & SEAD capability organic to your drone corps.
It's probably an economy of force thing. You can probably get evade the jammers, either physically or electronically, and the drone is attritable anyway. At the same time, it's not the jammer that's gonna blow up you and yours if you don't hit them Right Now
This is called FREE MARKET INCENTIVES A youtuber has a lot more incentives to make a very good presentation with lots of research because Quality directly correlates to Money. In the other hand, a government or university researcher care a lot less with quality and speed, they get the paycheck regardless. . I have seen some crazy shit on youtube, like growing a meat tree... dude genetically modifies bacteria and cultivate on his garage using leafs as containers... I trust a lot more youtubers than any "specialists" featured on TV, because a lot of the people i follow have extensive experience on the area, many have PHDs or straight up do a single video that worth more than a PHD thesis... Like NileRed making Purple Gold. . Not only these youtubers have my respect, but i also disdain mainstream "news, science and analysis".
Good reconnaissance which leads to better situational awareness ,at least at battalion or brigade level ,is essential for success. It allows you to deploy forces in a manoeuvre or defensive effort on time and target. That's why the major role of special forces is recon.
In a boxing match if you are not light on your feet and have the ability to jump back against an incoming blow, and/or quickly see an opening to counter punch, you will lose. I get the impression that the Ukrainians have this agility and the Russsians are just like an heavyweight with a powerful punch but is slow to move forward and definitely does not move back.
How 2 Armies fought each other before and after drone update on milsim game are also changing. And those who utilize drone better will ultimately won the match Be it Arma, Squad, or Battlefield
I always knew that a new conflic would make drones like these the focus, but Ukraine made the world see the amazing advantages in making multi-purpose drones incredibly economical and tactically important.
"amazing advantages in making multi-purpose drones incredibly economical" You are aware that "economical" just means that everyone and his mother gets to play a bit of modern warfare?
@ 43:23 For those of us old enough to actually remember when people used to carry their “Boomboxes” or “Ghettoblasters” as we called them, full volume on their shoulders for the world to hear, thank you Perun!
a mass produced, man portable, cheap(500-1000$), guided munition like the small fpv/drop drones is rather frightening to think about. the modern battlefield was already a highly lethal environment. but most weapons were either targeting high value targets like armored vehicles or material, or areas of troop concentration. I'm not saying that a classical guided muntion couldn't or wouldn't target an individual soldier, but that might not be a very efficient use of expensive munitions. but these smaller drones can and have been used to target a few as a single soldier, and theres a certain menace to the idea that a drone is targeting YOU specifically. I can't help but wonder what the morale affect is of something that the average trooper cannot truly retaliate against.
if your fighting for a wealthy enough country, the countermeasures will keep you safe, and really, the enemy always wnated you dead and might be spying on you specifically, so its not really anything new.
A bit better analogy would be that of the aircraft during the first half of the 20th century. The advent of aircraft DURING WWI was huge. But over the next 25 years, you go from canvas and sputtering engines to pressurized high altitude bombers that can drop thousands of pounds of bombs over thousands of miles. There will be a drone arm race regarding drones that can do amazing things that a human or human controller just can't.
Excellent timing, I was just wondering if I should do the laundry. I love listening to your videos doing chores, so I guess it's time to start folding 😊
That FAB-3000 really deserves a rename to FMS-3000 - "Fragile Masculinity Special-3000", courtesy of Perun at 33:26. You said you are here to pair good analysis with bad jokes, and nailing both. :)
FAB-3000 is far less relevant, than apparent Russian confidence in their ability to mass produce UMPK kits to stick them even to 250 and 500 kg bombs or Tornado-S rockets. Another supposed "game changer".
Technology United For Ukraine, comprised of volunteer engineers and scientists, is dedicated to advancing drone technologies for the benefit of Ukraine. Collaborating directly with the Ukrainian Armed Forces, we contribute to various defense projects without seeking profit or patents for the technologies we provide to the Ukrainian Government.
This is the only channel I know where pretty much every subscriber watches pretty much every single video. For every single hour long PPp have 4-500k views.
One application of drones I am surprised not to have read about is in a mine detecting/clearing role. Like a low flying drone that has some sort of metal detector strapped to it that can map a battlefield prior to an assault. Nullifying the defensive impact of mines would be incredibly disrupting in a war like this.
The biggest contribution of drones in Ukraine is first and foremost providing a level of situational awareness that makes covertly concentrating forces impossible.
The first thing I thought when CNN showed the most recent deep strike into Russia was : "Wow, that sure looks like a Cessna ..." Apparently Ukraine makes an indigenous 2 person Cessna like aircraft
@@squireson Yes, it's a well known tried and tested popular "hobby" aviation airplane. Ukraine has an aviation industry, and likely quite a few hobby pilots as well, so there are likely quite a few people who can assist with building etc of flying drones. I think Ukraine's poptential is more than likely a lot greater than most countries. (That's why I hope they get to domestically build Swedish Gripen fighters in the future.)
Thank you 💛 so much Perun for covering this topic. Only you could cover this so well! I look forward to hearing what you are going to cover next week. You did a fantastic job. Thanks again! Have a great week.
Naval drones are like return of PT boats... but the boats in question are also a torpedo. cheap, can swarm target, and they can actively aim for existing holes to deepen them. the last point is most terrifying for potential rescue and repair parties on the attacked ship. There might be a gaping hole in the side and there are people literally bleeding out there, but now that hole is also a target for more drones.
Don't forget the video recieved is training data. Add some tags "mission accomplished", "high-value target", "skip low value target" and if you have enough. That stuff can be - for the price of a ai-ready phone become autonomous.
This is absolutely brilliant analysis. Incredibly insightful both in terms of the evolving technology itself and in its evolving and growing role on the battlefield. No serious future army will ever be effective without them.
Agree with your conclusions. Ukrainian population is still very good with tools, trades, craftmanship and at the same time known for their software developers. It's a perfect fit. Drone construction and modification on a smaller scale empowers them in ways that bigger weapons systems cannot. Plus people think drones are cool so it's easier to crowdfund them.
Your insights at 1 hr mark comparing artillery systems in ww1 and its significance to battle outcome and compared with drones is the reason why I subscribe to this channel. Thanks for your research, insight and presentation.
100% agree with your comment on the article of the professor at 59:30. Before even I have listened to your comments, when I heard the quote I thought he’d have said the same in WWI about aircrafts not being strategically significant.
What drones enable you to do is allow you to pull larger pool of manpower into Military service. Drone operator doesn't need to be particularly fit if they drive on cars and deploy from long range. They just need to know how to maintain their kit and guide it with a controller.
Agreed. When you look at the combat wounded alone that still want to fight, this sounds like a job for them as well. Everything from the maintenance, flying, and being the director in charge of a drone group.
90% of russian equipment losses are due to ukrainian drones. and perun drops a video on Ukraines number 1 killer DURING WARTIME!!! FFS use your god damned brain and tell perun to take this video down. Is there anything he could say here that would help the Ukrainian cause with Russian generals learning about drones on TH-cam???
Dear Perun I'm an admirer of your products and have great respect for you and your team. A "decent" air force can carry out at least 2,400 sorties in 24 hours. That is 100 combat sorties every hour! Each fighter carrying 2-4 tons of munitions! Even if you allow for only 10% of target kills we're talking about a loss of at least 300 Enemy targets every day (and maybe multipoles of that)! Can any army tolerate the loss of 300 real targets a day? Every day? I'm Skeptical. Tiny drones are useful to "peek over the next hill" but they are more a nuisance than A real "game changer". A serious air force can deliver 10,000 tons of ordinance a day, more than all the Tiny mosquitos of the Ukraine and or Russia combined in the course of the war. May the force be with you With respect an admiration.
The Naval drones are seriously impressive to me. They would make excellent recon for waterways that are difficult to image with satellites, and they go boom too.
I'd say that most attack drones in Ukraine are essentially slower and cheaper dynamically guided missiles (i.e. can search and chase targets, do not rely on a fixed designation) or cruise missiles (if set onto a fixed target). And since the designation of "missile" does not depend on jet propulsion, this is a fair term to use.
Given they've used Shahed drones with jet propulsion, there's actually no line that could be drawn between missiles and drones. And if you had to draw a line based on means of propulsion, then the jet vs. rocket divide is a better line to draw. There's a huge difference in terms of engineering and capability between the two, whereas propeller vs. jet is a gradient with many intermediate designs.
I’d assume what they mean by “drones are strategically inconsequential” is that there’s no huge sweeping changes in how sides are operating that came from them. When over the horizon attacks started being used on planes, it essentially grounded the entire enemy airforce because their planes were just randomly blowing up with no way to counter or even detect the enemy that was attacking them. Drones haven’t had insane effects like that, they’ve mostly caused people to strap jamming equipment to tanks or other vehicles, and made the punishment for being out of position more frequent. Whether that’s true or not, idk, but I’d assume that’s what meant and there’s at least some merit to the idea that, ultimately, it wasn’t like one side wheeled out the drones and the other side completely lost significantly in a strategic sense, but I think personally that’s because both sides have been aware and adapting to the drones much better than militaries in the past to new techs (probably in no small part due to the internet) so neither of them have been completely caught out by the other’s capabilities. Basically, it’s been more gradual, so they’ve adapted as it’s gone on, so while you can’t point to a specific point where they were strategically decisive, overall they certainly have had consequential impacts on the war, and which side can develop them better will be of strategic interest long term
I am fascinated that a "sci-fi" technology like smart missiles with deployable wings and lowpowered jet-engines as a 'stealth mode' for loitering, like in the expeditionary force book series, is something that we could see in a few years... I am not sure if that should frighten or inspire us...
I get a feeling that Perun got really mad at the guy who said that drones weren't strategically significant and thus dedicated around a fifth of this video to thoroughly demolishing the guy who made that argument.
Been waiting for this one. The Drone War we are watching is both fascinating and terrifying. By the end of this year or next, we'll be talking about "autonomous kill-bots" as easily as we talk about FPVs today.
The pace of change in drone technology is extreme, one or two months and you are so last year. The aerial robot battlefield is here, as is the eye of Sauron. Does this mean mass armoured/infantry attacks are a a thing of the past. Agreed, tactical innovations can have a strategic effect. Another excellent video.
I worked for a drone company that has products in Ukraine. We even had Ukrainian army guys come visit campus. It was so fun to learn that the production line for headline making drones was right in my hometown. Looking forward to see if the switchblade makes an appearance in this video.
Battlefields have always been hell, but we're looking at a near-future scenario where cost effective, autonomous drones can saturate the battlefield to the point that each soldier needs personal EW countermeasures just to survive at all on the front line, lest they be immediately attacked. I can't even imagine the intensity of the PTSD.
I wasn't as interested in this topic before this video, but there is alot of good food for thought here, so bravo sir! What I got out of it is that essentially we'll have to rethink SHORAD and point defense systems/tactics in light of the use of UAV's in Ukraine. This is pretty big, I wouldn't doubt there is a 1915 moment in any future war where new tech like this just throws out everyone's playbooks and it takes years to sort it all out.
One thing to also mention is the impact drone warfare will have long term on poorer countries. Not every country can afford awesome electronic warfare or anti drone technology in general. However buying cheap drones and sticking bombs on them, everyone can afford that. We have already seen first instances of thier impact in the syrian civil war, the current sudan civil war, the gaza war and even the Huthi ship attacks. We are know in an age were basially everyone with a big enough bomb and a drone to carry it can attack a civilian commerical ship in reach of any costline. To give an example: Iran could close the sea lane of Hormus traditionally by missles, now they can also do so by cheap drones. Any fleet that tries to coross that area now has to deal with the problem of potentially getting swarmed by hundreds or thousands of cheap drones while high tech missles are in between them. Also drones, as the civil war in Myanmar shows, are also perfect for any insurgency movemeant to attack isolated outpost or troops with while minimizing the risk to themselfs. On the other hand cheap drones allow the state actors to fight insurgencies from safety by simply mass survailing the enemys operational area and then attacking any identified insurgend forces with cheap drones. For the same reason insurgence usually use drones they will hardly have proper drone defense. Drones are cheap, drone defense is expensive. In short, whilein Afghansitan NATO could identify and drone strike the Taliban regulary, with the current developemeants in drone technology the Taliban would be enabled to do the same with NATO troops on a smaller scale. Every NATO partol could, instead of getting attacked by small arms fire, IEDs and rpgs, face attack by drones on thier vehicle. I imagine a lot of Afghanistan missions would have been much more deadly for NATO troops with the Taliban posessing a drone force of even a few hundred drones withRPG heads attached. Drones are a big force equalizer between wealthy and poorer forces as long as anti drone weapons are not prevelent enough to rebalance this. And on the strategic side of drone warfare, we alreadyhave one war that was solely decided by one countries massive advantage in drones: Azerbaijan vs. Armenia Traditionally, Armenia had the stronger conventional military, but do to Azerbaijans massive investmeant in modern, but ciomparably cheap turkish drones against which the armenians had no defense, they decided the war for their side so compleatly, that during the first skirmish in 2020 armenia suffered heavy losses that they, during the final assault, didnt even put up any resistance anymore and simpyl surrendered without any heavy combat. A conflict that could not be "solved" for 20+ years do to military stalemate ended with one country, do to their investmeant into drones, winning the war in a single day.
Thx Perun! Yeah. Sitting under Shaheds every day is scary. But every war ends eventually. What will ppl do with all of this stuff very scary too... I miss to be a careless kid..
Love the breakdown, it really does make it much clearer how these tools are having an impact and what we might see going forward. No one knows the future but it is really interesting to see the developments as they are being made. I hope to never find myself on a battlefield and much less on a front line but if I do I will keep in mind that the enemy is watching and fog of war is a thing of the past. And that I will count myself lucky if I could get a job far enough away from the front line.
the audio may be a bit rougher this week as it was recorded on the move, but hopefully it doesnt take away from the episode and it should be back to normal next week.
Thanks to all those who voted for this topic - I hope you're happy with the result.
It never would
Is it O.K. to be _horrified_ by the result ?
It didn't till I read this comment.
Gotta ask, do you have a recommended Lamington recipe?
Thank you for all your work in educating us!
"the goal of equipping every drone with a mechanical equivalent of the eye of Sauron for less than the cost of a Happy Meal" -Perun
Russia is a total joke at this point lol
@@dpelpalah yes. Keep thinking like that and ukraine will lose.
Russia is gaining ground every day
@@VividFlashAnd having to downgrade their equipment more every day, golf carts ring a bell?
@@MyName-lq7rv Russia gonna take "Kyiv in THREE DAYS!" 🤣🤣🤣
@MyName-lq7rv and with those golf carts they are still able to push Ukraine back.
Russias has another 140k men ready to go on the offensive split into 2 different groups each targeting 1 of the objectives. At best Ukraine will be able to supply and man 1 of those areas enough to halt the offensive there.
Underestimating Russia makes no sense to me and I don't get why people blind themselves with jokes about golf carts
Listening to that quote from the US general about drones not changing the strategic situation reminded me of the pre WWII “gun club” talking down air power in the navy.
Generals always fighting the last war.
He sounds like someone who wants his retirement gig at Raytheon or Boeing, and they want to sell multimillion dollar systems in multi-billion dollar contracts, not a bunch of much cheaper drones.
@@joby10095 that is how i read it...
they have not changed any thing,
whilst sat in his office, no where near the front line.
Did you read his paper?
@@joby10095You’ve heard one quote and you think you know the person? Did you read the paper?
I think you’re drawing conclusions well beyond Perun’s conclusions and I further think your conclusions are not in evidence. Prove me wrong.
Hi Perun, a Dad here. I greatly appreciated your Dad frequency joke. It was spot on. Please do not feel pressure from non-Dads and keep the Dad jokes coming!
So you'd say it... resonated?
@@sonicgoo1121 Only with some people, dad jokes can be pretty polarizing.
I don't know. the joke kinda made me drone...
Dad?
@@davagevorriose8046Clearly this was such a deep Dad joke that people just filtered it out :-)
39:32 Drone Optimized Payload Effector - Army Future (DOPE AF) 😂💀
I completely missed that! Thanks!
And Perun has named a new Pentagon Program. He scored on the acronym.
🇺🇸🇺🇸🇺🇸
Surely DOPE-AF M1?
This absolutely killed me
On a super silly note, Perun, if you haven't yet seen, that Russian tank with the pallet of anti-drone EW was NOT knocked out by drones. It was the last survivor, and ended up ramming another knocked out tank. The crew panicked and ran.
It was still operational.
Because Ukraine posted videos of their guys sneaking to it at night and just driving off with it. (And pictures of the guys posing next to it after they had it safely stashed somewhere)
Yay, that tech's gonna get disassembled and everything learned from it before it makes a difference.
Sounds like those Russian's maybee had the only sensible goal - survive! And if their tank was the last survivor, they could hardly be blamed for running away. (Maybee even ramming another tank suited their plan.)
Perun is not impartial.
Peace.
@MicMc539 Nobody should be impartial in this war. Perhaps its not as black and white as WW2 where people who would be comically evil if they didnt have a 50 million+ kill count and (mostly) democracies with freedoms and such were at war. But this is still a rather expansionist effort from an authoritarian regime onto a free and democratic country. If you are impartial to this you are a fool. Even supporting russia is better than being impartial to this. Then at least people can tell you are a fool and you dont have the excuse of some sort of moral high ground that doesnt even exist against ukraine.
@@hudsonflores5478 Quite the rant there.
It seems you're not impartial either, hooray for you.
Typical Gamer comment defending a another childish Gamer.
Children should be seen not heard.
Peace.
In the late 1800s, the rise of the battleship-killer torpedo led to the creation of the new warship type, the torpedo boat. In response, navies created a newer class of warship, the torpedo boat destroyer, to counter them.
In time, the "torpedo boat" part got dropped, and the new small warships were simply called "destoyers." They have grown in size and replaced the battleship as the principal surface warship.
How will the Rise of Drones change measures and countermeasures? It's an exciting time.
Kettering bug
You forgot the important fact that they also put torpedos on the torpedoboatdestroyers, which made things even more convoluted.
As someone who works in computing who has seen the Slaughterbots video... I can tell you, I don't call it exciting, because you've probably seen nothing yet. 😞
@inquisitorbenediktanders3142 yeah ship classification makes no sense.
You've got Cruisers, Frigets, Destroyers all with overlapping capabilities and tonnages nothing is consistent and it is all seemingly arbitrary.
@@ieuanhunt552 See: Japan and their 20,000-ton totally-not-a-light-carrier "helicopter destroyers." For the very famous F-35B naval helicopter. 🤣
Lethality Lamington - this is a solid powerpoint level up
🤣
See, I never fail to learn something new from Perun. I had never heard of Lamingtons. I looked them up. And they sound delicious.
@@Tewhill357 Yet another Kiwiland invention stolen by Emutopia. Lord Lamington's chef simply copied the Wellington cake, which has been the subject of a false flag conspiracy intended to delegitimatize Kiwiland's claim. See also pavlova, and Phar Lap.......
This needs to get into common parlance. It’s even alteration, with adds appeal.
@@Tewhill357Very common in NZ and Aussie. Yum yum
@@Tewhill357 Yes, one of my favourite cakes.
"I don't understand how this might be used, so I'm going to pretend it's useless because I'm scared of what will happen to my job when I'm forced to learn how it works" is a disturbingly common sentiment throughout the upper echelons of many industries, but it's remarkable to hear that kind of thinking come from a general of all things.
It is just as common throughout military high commands, because they are all trained on what won the previous war.
Not at all unique to our times either, when you start unwrapping military history you quickly notice a pattern that the people you learn of as geniuses of their time weren't quite that genius, the rest of the commanders they encountered just happened to mostly be idiots.
Hannibal was famously completely countered by Fabius who just had the idea of "we lost 5 times but Hannibal can't actually take Rome so let's just ignore him"... a strategy which most Roman commanders disagreed with, therefore the army was given co-command by another general who ran the army into Hannibals army as 6th times the charm.
Cannae is famously not the battle where the Romans finally defeated Hannibal and won the 2nd punic war.
I would hesitate to go that far. The US military has been going all in on counter drone technology for years now. US forces worldwide have been harassed by FPV drones for years now and when it first started the only tool most commanders had to deal with them was Military Police with Mossberg 500 shotguns and birdshot. The DOD responded to this by dumping billions into next generation SHORAD capabilities and anti-drone EW weapons. They were discussing things like reactivating M6 Linebackers and M167s to cover gaps at first but then industry responded with electronic anti-drone guns and a Stryker with an Apache cannon and stinger pods that rolled out quick, followed by lasers out the ass. That general was probably saying what he said because the US Army and Navy already have a robust counter drone capability already and are already developing it further. The main laggard in the anti-drone system category is clearly the US Air Force, which has recently had a high profile incident with FPV camera drones overflying Langley Air Force Base in Maryland.
This is carriers vs battleships before Midway talk. Drones are going to be integral to military operations in a few years because noone will want to go without.
Drones arent a revolutionary change, they are an evolution of capability. They put airborne reconnaisance and light close air support in the hands of frontline infantry companies rather than integrated by the squadron at corps or division level.
We saw the same with the machinegun being devolved to sectipn level and artillery devolved to companies in the form of light mortars. RPGs did the same with AT capability, and mechanization the same with armour and heavy transport capacity.
It is going to give smaller units more firepower, thus further enhancing defenders advantage, and reinforce the paradigm of positional warfare that has developed in ukraine.
"Back in my day, we used rocks and clubs to pound the Japs into scrap! None of this here, fancy schmancy drone technologies!"
- Retired General
The last thing I expected to come back weekly for was a power point presentation on the intricacies of defence economics.
Don't forget to laugh at the russian army, 'cause that's all I seem to do when I watch Perun lol
Yeah what a weird ritual to have developed in the last 2 years huh?
you life mush be shit
True story
In a world where so few can draw clocks....
“DOPE-AF”
Somebody get this man a DoD contract.
If the acronym is good enough, the USDF will find a system to fit it
He is describing weapons that cost peanuts and make no profit, but are highly effective on a real battlefield. This is the worst nightmare of USA military companies.
Which is why the US companies will produce hundreds of thousands of them at twice the price and ten times the capability. Munitions only turn a profit in numbers. And no one has ever refused more ammo. A 155mm shell clocks in at what, 3000 dollars? A highly advanced single-use attack drone mass-produced by e.g. Lockheed-Martin, will probably cost less than half, with all the capabilities described in the video.
The most important thing is a good codename. The system itself is a more minor factor in getting the program funded
Best military backronym ever.
Lamingtons are cubes of sponge cake dipped in chocolate and coated with shredded coconut. 😋 Thanks for this weeks' video, Perun. 😊
Dammit, now I have to source Lamingtons in the U.S,!
Thank you
Really easy to make too...
Originated from left over sponge cake that had started to go stale. The ones with a layer of jam in the middle are *chefs kiss*
@@SpookyEng1they are incredibly easy to make. You can even just buy a sponge cake, cut it into cubes, then dunk it in chocolate and coconut. When I was about 12, I was living in Copenhagen (my parents worked there) and I made lamingtons to take to school for a ‘bring something from your homeland’ event (I went to an international school).
Oh, look, Perun has made a full hour+ long carefully researched video, while holding down a full-time analysis job.
What have I done this week?
took a dump?
do not start with me. I spend all day every day getting stoned laying on my hand-me-down couch from my grandmother waiting for war to begin.
@@TreCayUltimateLife
better start taking up running then. you gotta be fit to fight in a war
@@kyle18934 I think that's his strategy. When you're looking for soldiers you don't go looking for the lazy stoner.
Do you think at this point, they pay him to do exactly the same stuff for them and give us just a snippet of his info?
Does anyone else hear ominous music whenever you think about cheap, autonomous, precise, explosive death drones?
It sounds like, "Walking on sunshine" to me
We are already adding image recognition to them
Oh yes 😮! Tocatta and Fugue in D Minor.
Automated target selection is such a /brilliant/ idea that we'll definitely not regret. (And no, getting it wrong does NOT make it better.)
Go look up an American defence company named Anduril.
Why on earth did the Russians call their superbomb "Father of all bombs" when "Bombushka" was right there...
“Father of all bombs” implies that all smaller bombs should be called Bombiches or Bombiviches. Or Bombushkaviches.
It was named to spite American MOAB.
@@vos2693 or maybe they were just flirting ^,^
@@diazinth this is extremely gay, so... likely.
@@vos2693 literally not gay at all, there's one father and one mother of all bombs, just perfectly heteronormative.
The comparison with artillery in 1916 and drones today was beautiful.
And do note that part of the shambolic French performance in the early war stemmed from overconfidence in the superiority of their new rapid-fire artillery system... resulting in insufficient investment in other parts of the firepower equation. ;)
"throwing a bike at a battleship" might be my new favourite metaphor for futility. Very nice!
But what if the bike is loaded with high-explosive material? :D
As someone who had to deploy object tracking on live feed in the earlier years of neural net, my guess for what's happening in 24:08 (bounding box attaching to the thing that the vehicle is hiding behind rather than the vehicle itself) is that the bounding box is being updated based on target image in the previous frame. In this case, when you get partial occlusion of your actual object by something else, you frequently end up with a situation where the bounding box includes that other object in one frame, and then in the next frame decides that other object that got included in the bounding box in the previous frame is actually the target of interest.
My guess is that they run a small Yolo model. I work at a company doing something similar, and the biggest issue is the training data. There is tons of false positives.
Reminds me AI generated videos, where created images in the frame constantly shift and change into other ones. Has no real working memory or physical understanding, just filling in bits.
the downsides of using codecs designed for movies and tv, they're not meant for machines
Love the channel perun.
The reason an artillery shell is 70-80% metal to charge ratio isn't because of the violent nature of artillery guns firing. An artillery shell with a 3mm wall will still fire perfectly fine.
The ratio of explosive to steel casing has been chosen to maximise fragmentation pattern in a 360 degree arc.
I believe he was thinking of the shell casing that is ejected from the breech block after the shot has been fired. But I could be wrong.
It's odd how we still forge the projectile instead of casting them out of ductile iron. The US Air Force has apparently decided to follow the example of Ordtech in Switzerland and cast the bodies of Mk-82 out of ductile iron instead of forging them. This produces a much improved fragmentation pattern.
I thought it was to maximize the penetration ability of the shell so it can breach a ships belt than blow up inside.
Compare an artillery shell to a mortar shell of comparable calibre.
@MarcosElMalo2 You are wrong modern artillery is caseless.
DOPEAF may be the best acronym joke I've heard, well done Perun, the Pentagon needs to consult you sir
Have a buddy working a Raytheon cryptically tell me in 2019 that he was a delivery man. He said the push was to close the hypersonic gap and develop a drone-mother architecture.
Cool to see what he was talking about.
Ask him about drone mesh technology.
There is a war going on in Ukraine, and they are using drones. And you are in the comments talking about your friends developing weapons, and drones, etc. when russia loses 90% of their tanks and trucks to drones. you are just casually talking about it in the comments. For the love of god stfu and tell perun to take this video down.
Ah, your ex-buddy, a former employee of Raytheon, but subsequently sacked and sued for revealing R&D secrets.
@@SocratesWasRightAnybody who is willing to do a few minutes of research on the public internet could ascertain the same. The US military is anything but opaque.
@@jonathanpfeffer3716 could be. Some secrets are more secret than others. Still, it is good practise not to share secrets and if a friend is foolish enough to reveal something: do not tell it forwards.
Was not expecting Helldivers here, but if that game taught me anything it's that that forest is, indeed, a valid military target in need of some 500kg bombs.
You are completely right. Thats why RuAF planes are now using glide bombs in hundreds every day.
o7 Fellow Democracy lover
Me when the trees start speaking binary.
@@lexingtonbrython1897it's only the bugs left now, galaxy is ours
@@lexingtonbrython1897 leave that to the SCP organization
What's interesting to me about the drone war is this:
1) None of these concepts is new or novel. Whether it's RAND or some random fiction writer, lots of people have talked about this type of warfare and indeed have talked about MUCH more sophisticated variations.
2) The technology needed to operate at the current level has been around for awhile now (all of this has been in the civilian toy domain for a decade or more)
3) Yet until the Ukraine war no one was really using this stuff or even stockpiling this stuff in the quantities you'd expect given its extreme cost-effectiveness. it seems like military planners were content to move at a glacial pace in order to avoid taking a wrong step.
4) I wonder how much budget is going into developing drone swarm and counter-technologies in the US or China, who have the resources to litter the earth with these drones if they decide to.
Well, as somebody who works in the field, I can tell you that both those areas are seeing increasing funding and have been over the last 5 years, but especially the last 2-3. But, as Perun states, it's a chicken-egg problem - do you develop a counter-drone solution and field it NOW, knowing that the drone tech is evolving rapidly and anything you come up with to counter today's drones will be outdated rapidly? Or do you keep working on tech-demo like solutions, continuously evolving and improving the concepts, and then commit to production when a conflict arises and be reactive?
Also, a BIG problem is that most of the parts are made in China. The motors are almost exclusively made in China. Getting "Blue UAS" (ie, parts all made in the USA) is like 5-10x the price for every component. The various open-source drone autopilot firmwares (especially Ardupilot and PX4) allow you to do a LOT right out of the box, and they're becoming increasingly integrated with "offboard" (misnomer, it just means a computer other than the AP's computer, but can be on the vehicle or off the vehicle providing additional computing capabilities like automatic target recognition) through tools like Robot Operating System (ROS) and various machine learning/AI solution are becoming more and more commonplace and making it very easy to add highly capable complex autonomy solutions.
And as he stated, the biggest problems right now are all the EW jamming limiting direct FPV control and GPS , but they have been finding solutions to both of these - either via using all the networks (USA's GPS, EU's Galileo, Russia's Glonast or China's Beidu) so they would have to jam all of them to totally lose a fix, and/or using optical flow or terrain matching solutions. Some of these can be VERY VERY accurate.
But the short answer is, yes lots of new funding, LOTS of research and development taking place here in the USA (and likely in China).
To really really oversimplify it, the Ukrainians have with their Queen Drone, done what Lockheed and Boeing has spent Billions on designing platforms, over a decade, that will cost hundreds of millions per unit, which yes may be able to make a cup of coffee, two plates of Lamington Cakes, all with a 0.002M rating on the stealth scale while sending data to F -22 and F 35's. So even the US could afford ohhh perhaps 10 of them if they short the chocolate on the Lamington Cakes. Give Ukraine 5 years and a lab, and 2 Billion, I would bet that they could develop a deployable system that could basically make Taiwan uninvadable, render North Koreas massive artillery stocks worthless, and have the 82nd Airborne dropping into Minsk to ASK the Ukrainians and Poles to stop heading to Moscow. Say 10 -20 Billion in production costs, and you would see 10's of millions of drones led by 100's of thousands of "Queens" deployable by freaking WWII Liberty Ships - in the HUNDREDS. End of Story. And a lesson for the US, remember better is the enemy of good enough.
3) the Second Nagorno-Karabakh War (2020) showed a devastating impact from drones. most ignored this.
Indeed looking at the civilian drone light shows that seem popular, it's not hard to imagine a loitering mother controlling a lot of cheap drones a long way from the front line.
@@mikekopack6441 Interesting that you confirm a lot that I would expect. If one can add all tose diffrent GPS-style systems in parallell, how about the feasability of a drone beeing able to use a very wide frequency spectrum for remote control? Then one can also use frequency hopping, making it pretty darn difficult to interfere with? Just an amateur thought though.
"the costs imposed on an enemy can be holistic, they don't have to take the form of burning equipment"
This is why I and so many others enjoy Perun. He's just good at thinking.
I'm surprised there wasn't any mention of "Home on Jam" technology being used in drones. It does not take much technical complexity or extra mass to build RF direction finding equipment to follow a jamming signal back to its source, and ram into it with a HEAT warhead strap-on. Any HAM radio operator could easily build that kind of add-on from spare radio parts. Mix a couple Home on Jam drones into each wave, programmed to un-jam the other drones by slamming into the brightest RF source if they lose signal, and otherwise target the nearest fire control radar signal. Then you would have hard-kill ECCM & SEAD capability organic to your drone corps.
It's probably an economy of force thing. You can probably get evade the jammers, either physically or electronically, and the drone is attritable anyway. At the same time, it's not the jammer that's gonna blow up you and yours if you don't hit them Right Now
I believe this is why both sides are trying so hard with ai targeting. What signal are you going to jam when everything is run in house?
It is truly scary that the best insights you can get on such pressing matters are coming from a youtuber...my respects
This is called FREE MARKET INCENTIVES
A youtuber has a lot more incentives to make a very good presentation with lots of research because Quality directly correlates to Money.
In the other hand, a government or university researcher care a lot less with quality and speed, they get the paycheck regardless.
.
I have seen some crazy shit on youtube, like growing a meat tree... dude genetically modifies bacteria and cultivate on his garage using leafs as containers...
I trust a lot more youtubers than any "specialists" featured on TV, because a lot of the people i follow have extensive experience on the area, many have PHDs or straight up do a single video that worth more than a PHD thesis... Like NileRed making Purple Gold.
.
Not only these youtubers have my respect, but i also disdain mainstream "news, science and analysis".
He’s not a TH-camr. He’s a defence economics analyst that makes TH-cam videos on the side.
@@luipaardprint then he is both...
@@brianfhunter well that sounds like an unhealthy amount of one-sided positions
That's only the best Insight we can get from our sofas, from the Ukrainian Conflict lots of troops have a bit more experience than a video on TH-cam.
I had to look up Lamington Cake. Thanks to Perun I’m now hungry as well as better informed.
They’re excellent - much better than an onion.
@@jimtalbott9535😂😂
@@jimtalbott9535 I took your advice and now my Kofta tastes truly weird....
"Out for delivery" must be one of my favorite phrases ever.
Good luck with the new PC and thanks for another highly worthwhile episode.
Looking forward to the Artichoke of Annoyance model of nonlethal systems.
The real reason Perun changes his Upload time, is to mess with all the people who keep claiming 1st in comments.
Bot farms must be mad
@@richardarriaga6271scheduled to coincide with their meal breaks. 😂
Good reconnaissance which leads to better situational awareness ,at least at battalion or brigade level ,is essential for success. It allows you to deploy forces in a manoeuvre or defensive effort on time and target. That's why the major role of special forces is recon.
In a boxing match if you are not light on your feet and have the ability to jump back against an incoming blow, and/or quickly see an opening to counter punch, you will lose. I get the impression that the Ukrainians have this agility and the Russsians are just like an heavyweight with a powerful punch but is slow to move forward and definitely does not move back.
How 2 Armies fought each other before and after drone update on milsim game are also changing.
And those who utilize drone better will ultimately won the match
Be it Arma, Squad, or Battlefield
Great comparison between artillery and drones in 1916. Keep up the great work Aussie. #StandWithKiwiland #StopEmuAggression
LOL 🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣 LOVE the Hashtags!
44:20 Hahahahaha man Perun thank you for both the information and entertainment as always. That comparison got me off-guard
I always knew that a new conflic would make drones like these the focus, but Ukraine made the world see the amazing advantages in making multi-purpose drones incredibly economical and tactically important.
Not to mention they turned the russian army into a complete joke lol
Yeah and it's terrifying. Everyone is watching and learning.
I don't like it, I know the result will move closer to the Slaughterbots future predicted some 6 years ago.
"amazing advantages in making multi-purpose drones incredibly economical" You are aware that "economical" just means that everyone and his mother gets to play a bit of modern warfare?
@@u_u4640 including non-military groups.
Even as a Kiwi it took me a sec to realise the Lamington part at 6min came from the boxy powerpoint blobs! Amazing video, thanks Perun!
@ 43:23 For those of us old enough to actually remember when people used to carry their “Boomboxes” or “Ghettoblasters” as we called them, full volume on their shoulders for the world to hear, thank you Perun!
Most content creators have some short intro that one has to sit through, but when one clicks on a Perun video, one best be ready to listen!
Lol...
a mass produced, man portable, cheap(500-1000$), guided munition like the small fpv/drop drones is rather frightening to think about.
the modern battlefield was already a highly lethal environment. but most weapons were either targeting high value targets like armored vehicles or material, or areas of troop concentration. I'm not saying that a classical guided muntion couldn't or wouldn't target an individual soldier, but that might not be a very efficient use of expensive munitions.
but these smaller drones can and have been used to target a few as a single soldier, and theres a certain menace to the idea that a drone is targeting YOU specifically. I can't help but wonder what the morale affect is of something that the average trooper cannot truly retaliate against.
It would suck to be running around a field like Wylie Coyote with a drone hot on your heals.
Drones carrying the equivalent of Claymore anti personnel mines are out there, and terrifying for exposed troops.
Can confirm, it's fucking terrifying.
if your fighting for a wealthy enough country, the countermeasures will keep you safe, and really, the enemy always wnated you dead and might be spying on you specifically, so its not really anything new.
These videos are as always, very impressive, especially considering the fact that he makes them upside down
Counter-clockwise
Hold your phone the other way.
A bit better analogy would be that of the aircraft during the first half of the 20th century. The advent of aircraft DURING WWI was huge. But over the next 25 years, you go from canvas and sputtering engines to pressurized high altitude bombers that can drop thousands of pounds of bombs over thousands of miles. There will be a drone arm race regarding drones that can do amazing things that a human or human controller just can't.
Look at Swordfish. It was canvas covered and sputtering engine plane before and after the war - but ended up as as almost modern ASW aircraft.
Excellent timing, I was just wondering if I should do the laundry. I love listening to your videos doing chores, so I guess it's time to start folding 😊
I also love doing chores with Perun on😊
I'm cooking dinner.
Taking care of dishes or cooking is my favorite with Perun.
Dishes and laundry gets done on Sunday when I can listen to Perun. It's a tradition now
Coffee. With my version of a spicy hot omelette. And my dog. Life doesn’t get simpler or better. My heart, though, hurts for my Ukrainian friends
Once again the Prince of Powerpoint carpet bombs us with knowledge, Thank you for some of the most educational videos on this horrific war.
That FAB-3000 really deserves a rename to FMS-3000 - "Fragile Masculinity Special-3000", courtesy of Perun at 33:26.
You said you are here to pair good analysis with bad jokes, and nailing both. :)
FAB-3000 is far less relevant, than apparent Russian confidence in their ability to mass produce UMPK kits to stick them even to 250 and 500 kg bombs or Tornado-S rockets. Another supposed "game changer".
Nice work again Mr Peron. Particularly agree with your comments regarding 'Does This Matter?'. My thoughts exactly. Good clear thinking there OM.
Technology United For Ukraine, comprised of volunteer engineers and scientists, is dedicated to advancing drone technologies for the benefit of Ukraine. Collaborating directly with the Ukrainian Armed Forces, we contribute to various defense projects without seeking profit or patents for the technologies we provide to the Ukrainian Government.
These guys are the real deal. 👌 👍 Check their page out.
We need more folks working together to stop Putin.
Nice to see regular people coming together to help a democratic country being assaulted.
Thank you for helping Europe. 🤗
One doesn't have to be a helldiver to contribute for Democracy
24:20 Gotta love the helldiver in the bottom left :D
This is the only channel I know where pretty much every subscriber watches pretty much every single video. For every single hour long PPp have 4-500k views.
Every single one is of such quality and relevance as to merit that attention. Perun is simply amazing.
Thank Perun for making Sundays more interesting
Go to church that’ll be exciting
The Sunday sermon in the church of Perun.
@@Tesserae Nonprofit?
Just wanted to say that I very much look forward to seeing these videos each week. Thanks for all you do Perun
I learnt *so much* from you in this one. That was exceptionally good, especially the but-for section. What a masterclass! Thank you very much. 🙂
One application of drones I am surprised not to have read about is in a mine detecting/clearing role. Like a low flying drone that has some sort of metal detector strapped to it that can map a battlefield prior to an assault. Nullifying the defensive impact of mines would be incredibly disrupting in a war like this.
The biggest contribution of drones in Ukraine is first and foremost providing a level of situational awareness that makes covertly concentrating forces impossible.
Thx. Your little brother Suchomimus also posted about using a cessna-like drone. Will share reverse. Also on Quora
Cheers
Shillomimus couldn't hold a candle to this. He is an emotional war propagandist at best.
The first thing I thought when CNN showed the most recent deep strike into Russia was :
"Wow, that sure looks like a Cessna ..." Apparently Ukraine makes an indigenous 2 person Cessna like aircraft
what about Chelsea
@@squireson Yes, it's a well known tried and tested popular "hobby" aviation airplane. Ukraine has an aviation industry, and likely quite a few hobby pilots as well, so there are likely quite a few people who can assist with building etc of flying drones. I think Ukraine's poptential is more than likely a lot greater than most countries. (That's why I hope they get to domestically build Swedish Gripen fighters in the future.)
Thanks Perun. A superb blog as always. You absolutely destroyed the arguments of the armchair expert, Paul Lushenko, thank you.
"Lethality Lamington" 🤣🤣
Thank you 💛 so much Perun for covering this topic. Only you could cover this so well! I look forward to hearing what you are going to cover next week. You did a fantastic job. Thanks again! Have a great week.
Your drone videos are always excellent and generally terrifying. Thanks for making this content.
Naval drones are like return of PT boats... but the boats in question are also a torpedo.
cheap, can swarm target, and they can actively aim for existing holes to deepen them.
the last point is most terrifying for potential rescue and repair parties on the attacked ship. There might be a gaping hole in the side and there are people literally bleeding out there, but now that hole is also a target for more drones.
Don't forget the video recieved is training data. Add some tags "mission accomplished", "high-value target", "skip low value target" and if you have enough. That stuff can be - for the price of a ai-ready phone become autonomous.
This is absolutely brilliant analysis. Incredibly insightful both in terms of the evolving technology itself and in its evolving and growing role on the battlefield. No serious future army will ever be effective without them.
Agree with your conclusions. Ukrainian population is still very good with tools, trades, craftmanship and at the same time known for their software developers. It's a perfect fit. Drone construction and modification on a smaller scale empowers them in ways that bigger weapons systems cannot. Plus people think drones are cool so it's easier to crowdfund them.
Lol, no xD sizable portion of Polish economy is based on fixing, what was previously worked on by Ukrainian "brothers" xD
Your insights at 1 hr mark comparing artillery systems in ww1 and its significance to battle outcome and compared with drones is the reason why I subscribe to this channel. Thanks for your research, insight and presentation.
Mustard gas. The supermarket AI recommended making mustard gas.
100% agree with your comment on the article of the professor at 59:30.
Before even I have listened to your comments, when I heard the quote I thought he’d have said the same in WWI about aircrafts not being strategically significant.
What drones enable you to do is allow you to pull larger pool of manpower into Military service. Drone operator doesn't need to be particularly fit if they drive on cars and deploy from long range. They just need to know how to maintain their kit and guide it with a controller.
Agreed. When you look at the combat wounded alone that still want to fight, this sounds like a job for them as well. Everything from the maintenance, flying, and being the director in charge of a drone group.
Yup. I saw a comment that said "overweight gamers with asthma" can do it.
There needs to be a perun out of context video. I love your sense of humour.
Lets gooo!
Brilliant topic yet again! Thanks again @PerunAU for the hard work and cloud clearing content.
This particular topic is moving crazy fast, having worked in a technical field for decades I don't think I've seen anything evolve like them
Perun hits the hot topic.. again. Thanks so much for the brilliant insight. Never felt this way about PowerPoint before 🇬🇧
I know right! I feel like I learned so much today.
Anything to avoid his failed predictions, as Ukraine nears collapse.
@@Oldsmobility455 Ivan, Perun has never predicted how the war will end.
@@Oldsmobility455How many years it has been now already after Russia predicted Ukrainian collapse in a few weeks?
90% of russian equipment losses are due to ukrainian drones. and perun drops a video on Ukraines number 1 killer DURING WARTIME!!! FFS use your god damned brain and tell perun to take this video down. Is there anything he could say here that would help the Ukrainian cause with Russian generals learning about drones on TH-cam???
Dear Perun
I'm an admirer of your products and have great respect for you and your team.
A "decent" air force can carry out at least 2,400 sorties in 24 hours.
That is 100 combat sorties every hour! Each fighter carrying 2-4 tons of munitions!
Even if you allow for only 10% of target kills we're talking about a loss of at least 300
Enemy targets every day (and maybe multipoles of that)!
Can any army tolerate the loss of 300 real targets a day? Every day? I'm Skeptical.
Tiny drones are useful to "peek over the next hill" but they are more a nuisance than
A real "game changer".
A serious air force can deliver 10,000 tons of ordinance a day, more than all the
Tiny mosquitos of the Ukraine and or Russia combined in the course of the war.
May the force be with you
With respect an admiration.
The Naval drones are seriously impressive to me. They would make excellent recon for waterways that are difficult to image with satellites, and they go boom too.
I'd say that most attack drones in Ukraine are essentially slower and cheaper dynamically guided missiles (i.e. can search and chase targets, do not rely on a fixed designation) or cruise missiles (if set onto a fixed target).
And since the designation of "missile" does not depend on jet propulsion, this is a fair term to use.
Given they've used Shahed drones with jet propulsion, there's actually no line that could be drawn between missiles and drones.
And if you had to draw a line based on means of propulsion, then the jet vs. rocket divide is a better line to draw. There's a huge difference in terms of engineering and capability between the two, whereas propeller vs. jet is a gradient with many intermediate designs.
I’d assume what they mean by “drones are strategically inconsequential” is that there’s no huge sweeping changes in how sides are operating that came from them. When over the horizon attacks started being used on planes, it essentially grounded the entire enemy airforce because their planes were just randomly blowing up with no way to counter or even detect the enemy that was attacking them. Drones haven’t had insane effects like that, they’ve mostly caused people to strap jamming equipment to tanks or other vehicles, and made the punishment for being out of position more frequent. Whether that’s true or not, idk, but I’d assume that’s what meant and there’s at least some merit to the idea that, ultimately, it wasn’t like one side wheeled out the drones and the other side completely lost significantly in a strategic sense, but I think personally that’s because both sides have been aware and adapting to the drones much better than militaries in the past to new techs (probably in no small part due to the internet) so neither of them have been completely caught out by the other’s capabilities. Basically, it’s been more gradual, so they’ve adapted as it’s gone on, so while you can’t point to a specific point where they were strategically decisive, overall they certainly have had consequential impacts on the war, and which side can develop them better will be of strategic interest long term
Wow...a lot more complicated than just saying 'drone warfare'!
Once more, you've prepared an excellent and informative posting.
Thank you!
I am fascinated that a "sci-fi" technology like smart missiles with deployable wings and lowpowered jet-engines as a 'stealth mode' for loitering, like in the expeditionary force book series, is something that we could see in a few years...
I am not sure if that should frighten or inspire us...
Yessss, new Perun video! ❤
I get a feeling that Perun got really mad at the guy who said that drones weren't strategically significant and thus dedicated around a fifth of this video to thoroughly demolishing the guy who made that argument.
Been waiting for this one. The Drone War we are watching is both fascinating and terrifying. By the end of this year or next, we'll be talking about "autonomous kill-bots" as easily as we talk about FPVs today.
As someone in the aerospace business, I am going to do my part to spread the terminology of the Lamington. Much tastier than the onion.
We're all very proud of you back at home Perun.
Asked $1 million bogan that question
The pace of change in drone technology is extreme, one or two months and you are so last year. The aerial robot battlefield is here, as is the eye of Sauron. Does this mean mass armoured/infantry attacks are a a thing of the past. Agreed, tactical innovations can have a strategic effect. Another excellent video.
I am impressed with Perun
I worked for a drone company that has products in Ukraine. We even had Ukrainian army guys come visit campus. It was so fun to learn that the production line for headline making drones was right in my hometown. Looking forward to see if the switchblade makes an appearance in this video.
I for one am looking forward to the dazzle camo making a comeback to mess with AI targeting.
Battlefields have always been hell, but we're looking at a near-future scenario where cost effective, autonomous drones can saturate the battlefield to the point that each soldier needs personal EW countermeasures just to survive at all on the front line, lest they be immediately attacked. I can't even imagine the intensity of the PTSD.
If it was not peppered with perun jokes, I might not be sleeping well after watching this...
Great as usual. Thanks.
I wasn't as interested in this topic before this video, but there is alot of good food for thought here, so bravo sir! What I got out of it is that essentially we'll have to rethink SHORAD and point defense systems/tactics in light of the use of UAV's in Ukraine. This is pretty big, I wouldn't doubt there is a 1915 moment in any future war where new tech like this just throws out everyone's playbooks and it takes years to sort it all out.
Another cracking good episode, Perun! Thank you.
Drones are the modern versions of the machine guns from 1914-18.
You finally did it! Wooooo I've been waiting for this video for months!
So I see Perun is into Helldivers 2 now as well.
The detail in Perun’s videos is amazing
One thing to also mention is the impact drone warfare will have long term on poorer countries.
Not every country can afford awesome electronic warfare or anti drone technology in general. However buying cheap drones and sticking bombs on them, everyone can afford that. We have already seen first instances of thier impact in the syrian civil war, the current sudan civil war, the gaza war and even the Huthi ship attacks.
We are know in an age were basially everyone with a big enough bomb and a drone to carry it can attack a civilian commerical ship in reach of any costline.
To give an example: Iran could close the sea lane of Hormus traditionally by missles, now they can also do so by cheap drones. Any fleet that tries to coross that area now has to deal with the problem of potentially getting swarmed by hundreds or thousands of cheap drones while high tech missles are in between them. Also drones, as the civil war in Myanmar shows, are also perfect for any insurgency movemeant to attack isolated outpost or troops with while minimizing the risk to themselfs.
On the other hand cheap drones allow the state actors to fight insurgencies from safety by simply mass survailing the enemys operational area and then attacking any identified insurgend forces with cheap drones. For the same reason insurgence usually use drones they will hardly have proper drone defense. Drones are cheap, drone defense is expensive. In short, whilein Afghansitan NATO could identify and drone strike the Taliban regulary, with the current developemeants in drone technology the Taliban would be enabled to do the same with NATO troops on a smaller scale. Every NATO partol could, instead of getting attacked by small arms fire, IEDs and rpgs, face attack by drones on thier vehicle. I imagine a lot of Afghanistan missions would have been much more deadly for NATO troops with the Taliban posessing a drone force of even a few hundred drones withRPG heads attached. Drones are a big force equalizer between wealthy and poorer forces as long as anti drone weapons are not prevelent enough to rebalance this.
And on the strategic side of drone warfare, we alreadyhave one war that was solely decided by one countries massive advantage in drones: Azerbaijan vs. Armenia
Traditionally, Armenia had the stronger conventional military, but do to Azerbaijans massive investmeant in modern, but ciomparably cheap turkish drones against which the armenians had no defense, they decided the war for their side so compleatly, that during the first skirmish in 2020 armenia suffered heavy losses that they, during the final assault, didnt even put up any resistance anymore and simpyl surrendered without any heavy combat.
A conflict that could not be "solved" for 20+ years do to military stalemate ended with one country, do to their investmeant into drones, winning the war in a single day.
If Russia hadn't abandoned them, those drones would have been destroyed by Russian electronic warfare. Politics dictated Armenia's date.
Incredible summary of the situation. Well done!
yay 💯 what i look forward to each week 😊
Thx Perun! Yeah. Sitting under Shaheds every day is scary. But every war ends eventually. What will ppl do with all of this stuff very scary too...
I miss to be a careless kid..
DOPE-AF. Absolutely perfect
This is an outstanding report on the topic. I'm sure the research for this was exhausting I really appreciate that you did it!
Never heard of Lamingtons. Damn they look good.
Love the breakdown, it really does make it much clearer how these tools are having an impact and what we might see going forward. No one knows the future but it is really interesting to see the developments as they are being made.
I hope to never find myself on a battlefield and much less on a front line but if I do I will keep in mind that the enemy is watching and fog of war is a thing of the past. And that I will count myself lucky if I could get a job far enough away from the front line.