THIS Tesla Share Price Model PREDICTS the Future

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  • เผยแพร่เมื่อ 31 ธ.ค. 2024

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  • @Flyingbadger13
    @Flyingbadger13 หลายเดือนก่อน +23

    You are a quant legend. You accurately predicted the electoral seat numbers. Very well done on the risk adjusted fair value. Beautifully done sir.

    • @jobhakdi
      @jobhakdi  29 วันที่ผ่านมา

      @@Flyingbadger13 thank you for your kind words! More coming this week :)

  • @ramon2786
    @ramon2786 หลายเดือนก่อน +29

    Yes - Jo is a perfect candidate addition to the cyberbull team

    • @gioelestendardo2819
      @gioelestendardo2819 หลายเดือนก่อน

      hyperbull I would say

    • @RealRadNek
      @RealRadNek หลายเดือนก่อน +1

      ​ @gioelestendardo2819 You ain't kiddin' on that. I'm a bull, and will be thrilled with a Cathy Wood base case or even her bear case by 2029 but $10,000 by 2030? I would definitely be a happy camper but I just can't see that. That kind of meteoric rise would have to shatter all known records in heaven and on earth from all eternity.

  • @Harmsyx
    @Harmsyx หลายเดือนก่อน +11

    I love these kinds of videos, so glad to hear you will try to do weekly 😀

    • @jobhakdi
      @jobhakdi  หลายเดือนก่อน +1

      Thank you that’s great to hear! Yes I will get to a weekly cadence in December :)

  • @johnmajewski1065
    @johnmajewski1065 หลายเดือนก่อน +7

    Excellent forecasting format thanks- perfect is very difficult objective however what else is there to aim for? Thanks

  • @chuckbulot6603
    @chuckbulot6603 หลายเดือนก่อน +2

    Excellent presentation with full explanation of the origin of the final numbers.

  • @maybesomething555
    @maybesomething555 หลายเดือนก่อน +1

    JO, thank you so much for this content! This exactly what was missing in the community- going into details of these models. Can't wait for another episode!

    • @jobhakdi
      @jobhakdi  29 วันที่ผ่านมา

      Thank you for this great feedback! I think more precise and quantitative content is key, we have a lot qualitative discussions from the other channels (which I like and use), but my job is to translate all of this noise and signal into numbers, timelines and thresholds so we can take effective action.

  • @mipaco01
    @mipaco01 หลายเดือนก่อน +7

    Thanks! I like the no emotion fact-based approach. Keep up the good work!

    • @jobhakdi
      @jobhakdi  หลายเดือนก่อน +1

      I am all for emotions but for predictions and modeling the future they have to stay in the waiting room ;)

  • @jaylinn416
    @jaylinn416 หลายเดือนก่อน +2

    Very helpful analysis. Thank you!

  • @mickeymcintire7621
    @mickeymcintire7621 หลายเดือนก่อน +1

    Great content. Glad I found it. Matching the technicals as well.

  • @m5dragontechsavvy399
    @m5dragontechsavvy399 หลายเดือนก่อน +1

    Awesome analysis and explanation on future $ targets. Thank You for sharing !

  • @newby_tradr2883
    @newby_tradr2883 หลายเดือนก่อน +6

    Great breakdown. Thank you for sharing. Any thoughts on revenues generated from licensing the FSD technology to other manufacturers?

    • @jobhakdi
      @jobhakdi  หลายเดือนก่อน +2

      I can cover this in a future video - short version: it’s only a marginal addition (in Tesla terms) but a very nice source of additional cash flow.

    • @newby_tradr2883
      @newby_tradr2883 หลายเดือนก่อน

      @@jobhakdi I see, thank you for that. Are the legacy auto manufacturers days numbered? Also, that was a great conversation you had with Pejjy. You're insights are mind blowing; especially the impact that Optimus will have in our society, industry & economy. Thank you again.

  • @Pcorrea908
    @Pcorrea908 หลายเดือนก่อน +1

    Looks great, Thanks Jo for your modeling

  • @MrSportsandmore
    @MrSportsandmore หลายเดือนก่อน +4

    Vielen Dank für dieses tolle Video! Lg aus der Schweiz....

    • @jobhakdi
      @jobhakdi  หลายเดือนก่อน +1

      Oh wie schön, Zuschauer aus dr Schweiz! Liebe Gruesse aus Texas :)

  • @salcipres8556
    @salcipres8556 หลายเดือนก่อน +2

    No - Very glad to find your content. You’re pragmatic and data driven risk based analytics are a breath of fresh air in what can be a sea of snake and mirrors. I love the living and learning model approach your are taking along with the non financial big picture perspective you offer for contemplation. Well done. Enjoy Austin and Lakeway. I lived in Cedar Park for 20 years. It’s evolved a lot and is still a very nice place to live. It’s a bit land locked for me now, but I visit family and enjoy the culture. Hook’m Horns!

    • @jobhakdi
      @jobhakdi  29 วันที่ผ่านมา

      Thanks Sal, and great to meet you! Stay tuned for more :)

  •  28 วันที่ผ่านมา +1

    I am really looking forward to an update and some sensitivity analysis. Thanks for the great work, Jo!

    • @jobhakdi
      @jobhakdi  28 วันที่ผ่านมา

      My pleasure!

  • @benashenden-g4j
    @benashenden-g4j หลายเดือนก่อน +3

    great analysis as always Jo, thanks mate

    • @jobhakdi
      @jobhakdi  หลายเดือนก่อน +1

      Very welcome

  •  หลายเดือนก่อน +16

    Good conclusion! In the future you need to be a capitalist. If you have a high status, high paid occupation now doesn't matter, if you only spend your money. Investors will rule the future.

  • @franksfortnitegamingchanne4229
    @franksfortnitegamingchanne4229 หลายเดือนก่อน +1

    Very enjoyable video Jo, have subscribed

    • @jobhakdi
      @jobhakdi  29 วันที่ผ่านมา

      Thank you and welcome on board!

  • @CLGR369
    @CLGR369 26 วันที่ผ่านมา

    Extremely useful. Thank you for your videos. I learn a lot from you!

  • @johnomalley3795
    @johnomalley3795 หลายเดือนก่อน +4

    Yes, I hear you

  • @kingjtjt
    @kingjtjt หลายเดือนก่อน +5

    Great Video Jo, you are really really good at forcasting and working with data and probabilities. What I am wondering is, you did not put in macro for risks I believe. However isn’t it realistic that some bigger Macro Crash will happen in the coming years or do you think that’s not likely or it will not impact Tesla or the stock price to much at least not for optimus or robotaxi, other risks I would have in mind would be war and maybe issues developing between musk and trump which is unlikely imo but possible

  • @Elizabeth-vl5lb
    @Elizabeth-vl5lb หลายเดือนก่อน +3

    why only 1,000 thumbs up. Mr. Bhakdi is a spot on genius.

    • @jobhakdi
      @jobhakdi  29 วันที่ผ่านมา

      Thank you :) I really appreciate it

  • @robbstewart921
    @robbstewart921 หลายเดือนก่อน +2

    Great video and love the call out on Adam Jonas.

    • @jobhakdi
      @jobhakdi  หลายเดือนก่อน +1

      Haha yes that was fun. To his defense, he is the first to stick his Wall Street neck out for Optimus, which is laudable. But saying 485 and then discounting to zero makes literally no sense

  • @kingfish806
    @kingfish806 หลายเดือนก่อน +2

    Spot on including risk into the model. I model and revise constantly. I do it because my largest fear is selling too early. Good stuff young man✊

    • @jobhakdi
      @jobhakdi  29 วันที่ผ่านมา

      I am not selling this thing any time soon - I think I am actually being conservative and especially FSD will be likely be de-risked significantly in the next 6 months. If Optimus Risk goes down to 20% and FSD to 30% over the next 12 months, all these numbers effectively double. But I am disciplined about taking off risk, it needs to be clearly proven and visible improvements.

  • @mrmarkyrichards
    @mrmarkyrichards หลายเดือนก่อน +1

    Exceptional work - truly exceptional
    Work 🙏

    • @jobhakdi
      @jobhakdi  29 วันที่ผ่านมา

      Thank you, I appreciate that!

  • @julianrobinsonespino
    @julianrobinsonespino หลายเดือนก่อน +1

    Thank you Jo for simplifying complex subject like price modeling for a long term Tesla bull like myself who’s conviction is based mostly if not all on fundamentals and belief in the vision. This further consolidates that conviction.

  • @composer7325
    @composer7325 หลายเดือนก่อน +1

    Excellent , thank you.

  • @mrapp8918
    @mrapp8918 หลายเดือนก่อน +3

    Vielen Dank, Herr Bhakdi. Sehr nützlich! 💪🧠💰🤖🏎️

    • @jobhakdi
      @jobhakdi  หลายเดือนก่อน +1

      Sehr gerne !

  • @randynkonoki4909
    @randynkonoki4909 24 วันที่ผ่านมา

    I appreciate what you’re doing, thank you!

  • @maybesomething555
    @maybesomething555 หลายเดือนก่อน +1

    It's been a week already. Can't waint for another video!

    • @jobhakdi
      @jobhakdi  29 วันที่ผ่านมา

      This week is FIRE, I will be live every day for the first time - I started with the new "Tesla Trading Monday" video today to kick off the $TSLA week. Tmw comes another trading video, and then we are going more strategic about Robots, Civilization and Babies (on Friday!)

  • @MatchaCocoaDog
    @MatchaCocoaDog หลายเดือนก่อน +1

    I sure hope so! Fingers crossed!

  • @gustavodiaz4689
    @gustavodiaz4689 หลายเดือนก่อน +2

    Been looking forward to this

  • @lukasfoo
    @lukasfoo หลายเดือนก่อน +4

    I like your thinking. I hope your projection are right for FSD and Optimus.

  • @trent_carter
    @trent_carter หลายเดือนก่อน +1

    I really love the way you model DCF. And yes, without a time for both price target and the DCF timeline the numbers aren’t relevant so good job.

  • @marythetallone02
    @marythetallone02 หลายเดือนก่อน +1

    Great video! Great idea! I think the key man risk is much higher and the competition is lower, but I love the idea of assigning a risk factor to help estimate the future price. There's probably also a 1% catastrophe risk, but we aren't due for another one of those til next decade.

    • @jobhakdi
      @jobhakdi  29 วันที่ผ่านมา

      The key man risk seems high, but when you look historically which great entrepreneurs died, there are basically no examples. Steve Jobs doesn't count, because it wasn't sudden and there was half a decade of preparation for the transition. That's (in a macabre) way a best case scenario, because the founder becomes aware that transition needs to be very well and urgently organized.

  • @jasiaci1
    @jasiaci1 หลายเดือนก่อน +2

    Brillant video, well done!

    • @jobhakdi
      @jobhakdi  หลายเดือนก่อน +1

      Glad you enjoyed it and thanks for watching !

  • @dmontaigne5643
    @dmontaigne5643 18 วันที่ผ่านมา

    Have you done a similar analysis for MSTR?

  • @StewartRoatan
    @StewartRoatan หลายเดือนก่อน +1

    Thank you for this video. Good work.

  • @jkimo11
    @jkimo11 หลายเดือนก่อน +3

    Jo, great content. You need more exposure. Perhaps you can get on with "Brighter with Herbert" and the Cyberbulls as a guest. Also, a conversations between Cern Basher and yourself would be highly informative. Have him on as a guest.

    • @jobhakdi
      @jobhakdi  หลายเดือนก่อน

      That’s a great idea - I have an interview I did with Herbert and the cyber bulls come out next week what yes I will work on getting together with Herbert. Cern would also be great, and Adam Jonas and Dan Ives

    • @jkimo11
      @jkimo11 หลายเดือนก่อน

      @@jobhakdi Oh great.... I also emailed Dillon Loomis from Electrified. I think you'd be good on his channel as well. Sure hope you are correct about the future stock price -- I have quite a few shares.

  • @kundic4647
    @kundic4647 หลายเดือนก่อน +2

    Just wondering which past modeling works that you;ve done, so we can compare with this work on Tesla? Say, did you do AMZN, SHOP, TTD, PLTR etc etc.
    to see if your modeling really works. THANKS MUCH!

    • @jobhakdi
      @jobhakdi  29 วันที่ผ่านมา

      @@kundic4647 I am very focused on Tesla since that’s (by far) the best return/risk ratio in the market I can find. I will have every Monday a weekly trading strategy coming up and also mention my performance (alpha over a Tesla core position) for transparency

  • @MrKatanaSan
    @MrKatanaSan หลายเดือนก่อน +1

    Jo - You need to be invited in the Cyberbull team! Nicely done, very clearly explained - Thank you sir!!

    • @jobhakdi
      @jobhakdi  29 วันที่ผ่านมา +1

      Tell them! I am happy to come on. I have some interviews with multiple cyberbulls (Herbert, Brian, Xander, Jeff ) coming out hopefully this weekend, I met them at the Tesla event in San Louis Obispo earlier this year.

  • @JasonPrice37
    @JasonPrice37 8 วันที่ผ่านมา +1

    Hi Jo How can we Access the spreadsheet? do you have a Patreon?

    • @jobhakdi
      @jobhakdi  5 วันที่ผ่านมา +1

      Hey Jason - no Patreon yet, but good to know there is interest - maybe I make them available soon!

    • @JasonPrice37
      @JasonPrice37 5 วันที่ผ่านมา

      @ absolutely Jo, I find your methodology most refreshing and was extremely impressed with your previous models predictions on the elections etc. I’d be very interested to view your models if you make them available

  • @ellapario6315
    @ellapario6315 หลายเดือนก่อน +1

    Thanks much for so generously sharing this interesting approach. I wonder if it makes sense to time weight the risk. So the risk of certain events like tech failure is higher in the early years and decreases as time goes on. Just a thought !

    • @jobhakdi
      @jobhakdi  29 วันที่ผ่านมา +1

      That's certainly correct - at the same time, keeping models simple makes them sometimes more effective. I rather wait until we have a de-risking event, then adjust the numbers and they all go up - makes it more obvious how powerful these events are.

    • @ellapario6315
      @ellapario6315 24 วันที่ผ่านมา

      @ Thanks! That is such a sensible approach!

  • @chorianopoulos2002
    @chorianopoulos2002 หลายเดือนก่อน +2

    Fantastic job. Thank you so much!

    • @chorianopoulos2002
      @chorianopoulos2002 หลายเดือนก่อน

      Jo, you mentioned a TSLA trading strategy that you were going to implement on Monday. Any further info on that?

    • @jobhakdi
      @jobhakdi  หลายเดือนก่อน +1

      You're very welcome!

  • @notefromone2925
    @notefromone2925 15 วันที่ผ่านมา +1

    Does the discount rate consist of just risk free rate and market risk premium?(capm)

    • @jobhakdi
      @jobhakdi  15 วันที่ผ่านมา

      No, the point of my risk model is that it’s not related to the discount rate , which I factor in separately. My risk model prices in fundamental business risks , aka probability of delays or lower scale, so we can recognize future revenue stream DCFs. It’s a game changer in terms of making stock prices more realistic through a future fair value assessment

    • @notefromone2925
      @notefromone2925 15 วันที่ผ่านมา

      @@jobhakdi traditional finance dictates that the discount rate should be the opportunity cost of investing into something with similar risk. Now this discount rate consists of risk free rate, market risk rate, and idiosyncratic risk. Now you are trying to strip risk away from your model by only looking at risk SPECIFIC to Tesla and do not account for market risk which does not accurately account for opportunity cost. For any investment you should be at least awarded for at the level of investing in the market in general such as the S&P 500. Something is off here. You are apparently doing an alternative model of scenario analysis but not taking into consideration of opportunity cost accurately here

  • @LanceWhite
    @LanceWhite หลายเดือนก่อน +1

    Following closely Jo! You mention the biggest thing for short term divergence from your model I think and that is sentiment driven buying and selling pressures. Agree there should be a magnetic pull back to the model overall. Ideally a second set of numbers would be following this with a real time data feed from something like X and the say the options market or other sources that fed a Neural Net or ML model to forecast this divergence factor. Having said that. I think what you are doing is the most important forward price data of the two. Thanks again Jo!

    • @jobhakdi
      @jobhakdi  29 วันที่ผ่านมา

      @@LanceWhite you are welcome! I am thinking about posting deltas between current stock price and my trajectory in X

  • @notefromone2925
    @notefromone2925 15 วันที่ผ่านมา +1

    The risk adjustment only involves idiosyncratic risk adjustment which you should rightfully do so since you are 100% tesla
    But what about the market risk? Is this part of the discount rate?

    • @jobhakdi
      @jobhakdi  15 วันที่ผ่านมา

      No, my risk discount is specific to Tesla. Macro risks I factor in only tactically (checking every week what the risk levels are in the market for the next few weeks).

  • @danbrownlie
    @danbrownlie หลายเดือนก่อน +4

    Regarding the apparent contradiction between Adam Jonas’ optimus net present value and price target: there is no contradiction. One is what he thinks that part of the business is worth, and one is his guess about the price at a point in time.
    He’s not alone in thinking the market is underpricing Tesla.

    • @dhui777
      @dhui777 หลายเดือนก่อน

      Tesla is at PE about 100. I don’t think Wall Street is undervaluing Tesla.

    • @jobhakdi
      @jobhakdi  หลายเดือนก่อน

      My criticism is this: he says Optimus has a 485 NPV but then completely ignores that revenue stream in his PT. I know why: Wall Street analysts currently don’t price in future revenue streams (that don’t currently exist) into their models. I am calling that practice out because it’s creating the WRONG price targets

    • @danbrownlie
      @danbrownlie หลายเดือนก่อน

      @ But the price target is what he thinks the price WILL be, not what he thinks it SHOULD be. If he doesn’t think the market *will* recognise the value of robots, it should not be in his price target.

  • @robinblaauw8104
    @robinblaauw8104 หลายเดือนก่อน +2

    Its funny how just now we are trying to model in Optimus. Knowing elon once we finally realy understand the impact of optimus he discovers a new businessmodel 😂 Like going into passanger carying flying drones as an example or something else creazy.

  • @Swizzenator
    @Swizzenator หลายเดือนก่อน +3

    Well done Jo. What happens when the stock splits?

    • @jobhakdi
      @jobhakdi  หลายเดือนก่อน +1

      There will be many stock splits along the way - my price target assumes of course no split, but splits are easy to calculate. If the stock splits 2:1 and then 5:1 again, a 10,000 PT becomes a 1,000 PT for the stock after the split. Technically, splits tend to lead to short term rallies but that’s just a side note and doesn’t matter long term

    • @Swizzenator
      @Swizzenator หลายเดือนก่อน

      @@jobhakdi Thank you. Is there a formula when stocks split or random to each individual business?

    • @jsprowse
      @jsprowse หลายเดือนก่อน

      @@Swizzenator Stock splits are done by the company at their own discretion, there is not formula or requirement. It is usually done to encourage retail participation and keep the price under a few hundred dollars so the average joe can buy some shares, but this is less of an issue now that you can buy partial shares for any amount of cash. More critical is a reverse split, where the stock price drops so violently that the company has to combine multiple shares into one share in order to keep the stock price high enough to stay listed on a given exchange (see: Nikola).

    • @Swizzenator
      @Swizzenator หลายเดือนก่อน

      @@jsprowse Big thanks for educating us new folks.

  • @johndoughty7438
    @johndoughty7438 17 วันที่ผ่านมา +1

    I keep hearing these high numbers and I don’t hear anything about the stock splitting. I would assume it would split multiple times before it got to that point.

    • @jobhakdi
      @jobhakdi  15 วันที่ผ่านมา

      Stock splitting doesn’t matter economically. If my target is 10k and stock gets split 1:10, divide my target by ten

  • @bnjiodyn
    @bnjiodyn หลายเดือนก่อน +3

    Love it! I founded and ran a robotics startup years ago within a big tech skunkworks -- it would have been awesome if the corporation had any vision and courage but instead decided to focus R&D on their core (legacy) business.
    I also have strong conviction that bots will start scaling long before robotaxi. Bots can make a lot of mistakes while still forcing adoption. They can be inferior to humans in every way as long as their COGS ratio is better -- which isn't hard to do in America (especially if we reduce immigration).

    • @bnjiodyn
      @bnjiodyn หลายเดือนก่อน

      I have a much lower the risk from competition though, it's highly unlikely foreign bots (esp Chinese) will be allowed at scale in the US -- because of national security, it's like having a draft army on call.

  • @OptimusPrime.
    @OptimusPrime. หลายเดือนก่อน +1

    Fantastic models. Would it be possible to know how you projected revenue from Robotaxi and Optimus bots? Another analyst has assumed that Tesla will "lease" these and manage fleets. I have not heard Elon mention this apart from only selling what they make. This means a vast difference in revenue. Maybe its worth doing 2 price projection models, one if Tesla lease Robotaxi/ bots and another if they only sell them. Thanks for all your work.

    • @jobhakdi
      @jobhakdi  29 วันที่ผ่านมา +1

      Yes, I will go deeper into the model and each revenue stream, starting this Thursday for FSD when I discuss a HARD CATALYST that was just unlocked by Tesla that is overlooked!

    • @OptimusPrime.
      @OptimusPrime. 29 วันที่ผ่านมา

      @ legend, thank you. I just subbed so I don’t miss it :)

  • @Joe-lb8qn
    @Joe-lb8qn 13 วันที่ผ่านมา

    I think since many corporates will hold back until a risk goes to zero (eg they see Optimus or Robotaxi actually working) so Wall Street will tend to hang back until its in production, which tends towards a plateau based on cars and energy etc until about 2027 and then other massive increase mirroring previous abrupt jumps. So, for those with spare cash, still plenty of time to buy.

  • @andych82tube
    @andych82tube หลายเดือนก่อน +1

    Thanks for sharing your model, would love to hear how you trade the stock, options, leverage, etc. Obviously, not financial advice

    • @jobhakdi
      @jobhakdi  29 วันที่ผ่านมา

      @@andych82tube tune in this week, just published a video on tactical options and another coming tmw. Then one weekly just on trading and options

  • @patricksikora4789
    @patricksikora4789 หลายเดือนก่อน +1

    Hello Jo,
    Zuerst einmal, Grüße aus Frankfurt!
    Kurze Frage, wie erklärst die die 255 B DCF Core für 2024? Hier fehlt mir der Link zu den aktuellen Quartahlszahlen/Jahreszahlen, selbst wenn wir etwas für Q4 unterstellen.
    Sonst ein sehr starkes Model!!!
    Ich würde es super finden, wenn Du verschiedene Risikostufen einbauen könntest, bspw. sehe konservativ (hohes Risiko) bis sehr niedriges Risiko, einfach, damit man verschiedene Szenarien hat.
    Danke Dir!
    Viele liebe Grüße!

    • @jobhakdi
      @jobhakdi  29 วันที่ผ่านมา

      Thank you for the great feedback! Different cases for projections are certainly possible, but at the same time I like to stick to a central predictive trajectory for demand and margin, and then adjust that single trajectory if something happens (otherwise it gets too complex and it loses power). The Core DCF model uses 2024 revenue + margin numbers and then makes some basic assumptions, including 20% annual growth long term, 8% opex and 20% gross margin. Very simple. Fundamentally, I am factoring in energy growth and improving auto positioning with OEMs going out of business, but CHina rising (kept in check by US and European tariffs)

  • @cybergigafactory
    @cybergigafactory หลายเดือนก่อน +3

    You are the Warren Buffet of the future 😂
    Hopefully not as dead 😎
    Thanks for your model, great assumptions.

    • @jobhakdi
      @jobhakdi  29 วันที่ผ่านมา +1

      Since I am the Warren Buffet of the future, I still have some time left to live ;) Thank you for your great feedback

  • @nigelsmith186
    @nigelsmith186 หลายเดือนก่อน +2

    Looks good to me - I'll take it any day.

  • @kellquist2210
    @kellquist2210 หลายเดือนก่อน +1

    Regarding Perfect Robotaxi. I do not think that you need perfect. In rail you work with SIL levels that basically tells how safe a system must be. in Rail often SIL4 for the most critical systems .

    • @jobhakdi
      @jobhakdi  29 วันที่ผ่านมา +1

      You solve the problem with remote operating teams who take over - Check back on Thursday for an in-depth video on this.

  • @alfredspijkerman
    @alfredspijkerman 9 วันที่ผ่านมา +1

    Refreshing how you rationally approach this. I fully agree about your methodology. Imo you are right about your caution on robocab: you can’t kill people’s with robotaxi. However, I think 10x safer is sufficient of a step change. The other argument also holds true. When you can prove you are 10x safer, as a regulator you can not ignore or abandon that, because that technology safes 90% fatalities and 90% injuries. Ignoring that or prohibiting such a technology which PROVES to be 10x safer would also mean you actively send people to die unnecessary in traffic. The government can be transparent about the risks and inform people honestly, let people decide. You couldn’t know but Trump/Musk already came out with rough plans to make it happen, i think we will see it in 2025 on a very small scale.
    That said, I still think you are right about being cautious in this.
    Your positive take on Optimus is spot on imo. People don’t realize how fast AI and technology is evolving, everything will change. Keep up the good work: I love it

  • @brakmaster
    @brakmaster หลายเดือนก่อน +1

    Great video and a quick peek into your thought process. The only way FSD produces zero deaths is if there are no more human drivers on the road and that won't happen for at least another 20 years. FSD will ultimately need to prove that it is a better driver than 99.999% of all human drivers. When it inevitably does get in an accident the priority needs to be on occupant safety rather than the vehicle structure. I think Tesla has already made strides towards this direction and that's why it is the best when it comes to safety and crash tests. A $10.000 share price is way out there for me right now. I would be very happy if it hit $3000 though as that's when I become a millionaire based on the shares I hold today. I am still accumulating though...

  • @adolfocano8690
    @adolfocano8690 หลายเดือนก่อน +2

    I am not an expert but it looks pretty good to me, good job! 👍

  • @zegoflorida
    @zegoflorida หลายเดือนก่อน +2

    TSLA, TSLY and a Model 3 Performance with FSD (for future robo-taxi)… multiple IRONS in this 🔥

    • @jwlafferty
      @jwlafferty หลายเดือนก่อน

      I was a TSLY shareholde and then I started selling TSLL covered calls. Way more option premium and growth.

    • @zegoflorida
      @zegoflorida หลายเดือนก่อน

      @ guess I should look into that as well - so many plays to be had when one has confidence in the underlying’s momentum…
      Bought some MSTY last month after studying what was potentially happening at MSTR. Company has been on fire since… lucky I didn’t sit that one out another month… CONY has made a nice rebound as of late as well… Guess you could say the compounding of all these eft’s (dripping the divi’s) has me fired up. Sure was a dark year up till recently - but my thesis seems to be working better now…

  • @garygarnett1
    @garygarnett1 15 วันที่ผ่านมา +1

    Sorry I'm late to see this fantastic model and breakdown. I'm no expert but I don't think fsd needs to be perfect. There are countless technologies that were adopted while not being perfectly safe. Electricity, motor cars, aircraft, gas, factory machinery, the list goes on. Fsd has been imperfect even now and it isn't banned. I don't see the logic behind your position but would love to hear your reasoning. Respectfully

  • @mariocorrea5848
    @mariocorrea5848 หลายเดือนก่อน +3

    You are excellent

    • @jobhakdi
      @jobhakdi  29 วันที่ผ่านมา

      @@mariocorrea5848 haha that’s very nice to hear, thank you for your kind words

  • @TonyaPenelope
    @TonyaPenelope หลายเดือนก่อน +1

    I literally had to pull over while driving to let this sink in.

    • @jobhakdi
      @jobhakdi  29 วันที่ผ่านมา +1

      You mean you don't have autopilot ;) glad you liked it!

    • @andre1987eph
      @andre1987eph 24 วันที่ผ่านมา

      Tonya, It's TOTALLY unrealistic. I'm a Tesla bull with 900 shares myself. However these TH-cam Charlatans are making THEIR money off views. His analysis totally ignores market cap realities and limitations. What this guy is saying is almost economically impossible and even during the great Dutch East Indies Global domination in the 1600s, they didn't even come close to this guy's wild analysis. See my comment in the thread. Follow legit Tesla Bulls like Cathy Woods and Ron Barron and then go somewhere in between.

  • @quaterman1270
    @quaterman1270 หลายเดือนก่อน +1

    I don't know if you are doing this, but you have to adjust the risk for later years on the price. I would for example assume that by 2028 the regulation and technology risk should be removed. I would actually thinkg 2026 but just as an example.

    • @jobhakdi
      @jobhakdi  หลายเดือนก่อน

      You are correct - this is the first iteration of the model and there is much more to do - but everything I need to add will just further increase the future share price. So this is the first take version with a conservative bias

  • @peterdeuschle78
    @peterdeuschle78 หลายเดือนก่อน +1

    Guten Tag Herr Bhakdi,
    habe Ihren Kanal leider erst kürzlich entdeckt und gleich abonniert - vielen Dank für Ihre super Arbeit.
    2 Punkte habe ich.
    1. Es gibt im deutschprachigen Raum leider kaum etwas auf dem qualitativen Niveau Ihres Kanals und vieler weiterer tollen Kanäle in Englisch (die in den Kommentaren auch schon erwähnt wurden). Wäre es auch dnekbar, dass Sie eine deutschprachige Version der Videos publizieren?
    2. I disagree with you disagreeing! Es gibt nichts "perfektes" mit 0 % Sicherheitsrisiko in der Technik. Es kann nur möglichst viel getan werden, um die Wahrscheinlichkeit eines (schweren) Unfalls so weit wie möglich zu reduzieren. "0" wird diese Wahrscheinlichkeit nicht erreichen. So gesehen, wäre FSD nach Ihrem Ansatz nicht möglich. Ich sehen den Ansatz "FSD muss x-mal sicherer sein" für den korrekteren Ansatz. Ob das jetzt Ihren Risikoansatz von 44 % ändert oder nicht, sei dahingestellt.
    PS. bin trotzdem sehr dankbar für das Video und Ihre tolle Arbeit!

    • @jobhakdi
      @jobhakdi  29 วันที่ผ่านมา

      Vielen Dank! Deutschsprachig unfortunately isn't feasible (too much work to do a separate channel, and mixing content is bad for performance), but I am happy to come on as a guest with a German speaking channel - there are some cool investing ones. I am thinking about adding more commentary about geostrategic impact of the robots on Germany and Europe - there is a lot to come! Regarding 2) - perfection is important in this specific case, because the PR downside of a Robotaxi death is horrendous. There are ways to compensate the risk, mainly through remote operating teams and warning systems that make them takeover, which is what Tesla will launch mid of next year (is my bet). I observed an important signal about this and will do a video on Thursday about it

  • @goukux5908
    @goukux5908 หลายเดือนก่อน +2

    Bhakdi in my limited experience has been right more than he's been wrong so it wouldn't surprise me if this happens. He should publish a tracking sheet of predictions he's made and actual outcomes. I think it would shine him in a very good light.

    • @jobhakdi
      @jobhakdi  หลายเดือนก่อน

      Thank you that’s very kind. My X account is a good ledger and I am trying to document it there publicly.

  • @johannel8104
    @johannel8104 หลายเดือนก่อน +2

    Thanks Jo. You have a good track record on major predictions and although I find some of your statements and the values here ludicrous, I hope you are somewhat right!
    FSD is not as risky as you think. People have died in many semi-autonomous vehicles already and many other accidents and inconveniences have been caused by these vehicles.
    You expect FSD to be perfect. Define perfect. Something that never breaks, never fails, always does exactly what it should, requires no maintenance, cannot be improved ever and lasts forever? Name me ONE perfect product that existed in all of history or today? Perfect is a fantasy. People said the same about automobiles when horses where the status quo - it was called 'a menace' because of the dangers it posed.
    Also, I find the notion that Optimus will be for sale within a year ridiculous. Optimus cannot even walk properly. It cannot match a human in general dexterity, strength, finesse and speed in basic actions, not to mention the actual understanding and skill to do anything useful. Tele-operations use is the only way for at least another 3 years. The physical mechanics of the bot are still lacking and won't catch up for another few years.
    IMO you underestimate FSD and over-estimate Optimus. I have been using FSD v12.5.6.3 since last Wednesday and the E2E highway stack is TRANSFORMATIONAL! City driving is much smoother too but functionally not better on this version because the focus was on getting the first iteration of E2E highway into users hands. V13 will do for city driving what v12.5.6.3 did for highway driving IMO. And within 3 months I think it will approach 10k disengagement free miles in all but the most trying conditions.
    Reducing 3k global auto deaths per day and reducing the 10k people daily getting permanent disabilities from auto accidents is more important than perfection. Don't let perfect be the enemy of the good. NO technology is perfect. Not even close. Sorry, but it's an absurd notion.
    I still hope you are correct on the finances, but your takes on FSD needing to be perfect and Optimus being in production and for sale within a year is just not sensible to me. Of course I am not as smart as you (I really respect your intelligence) and I am a bit more of a pessimist, but I cannot buy these two horses.

    • @jobhakdi
      @jobhakdi  หลายเดือนก่อน +1

      Great points! My concern with FSD is public perception - I know nothing can be perfect, and I am aware FSD made amazing progress. I am just simulating what happens once the first major accident with human damage occurs - it’s going to be very bad and potentially set back regulatory approval . Optimus, on the other hand, faces much less of that risk. When it comes to projected progress for Optimus, I am factoring in an exponential progress trajectory because of what I see in AI. It seems far fetched that Optimus is ready to sell (as a pilot) end of 2025 , but I do think I will be roughly right about it (maybe early 2026). There are too many reasons , both carrots and sticks , why Tesla has to move fast; and the technology is on a massively exponential trajectory

    • @johannel8104
      @johannel8104 หลายเดือนก่อน

      @@jobhakdi Thanks Joe.
      Optimus has its dangers too. What if it falls on a (frail) person and injures it? Worse, what if it accidentally drops and kills a baby? That will be waaaaaaaaay worse than FSD causing a lethal accident.
      I agree. Public outrage against FSD after a fatal accident will be bad and amplified by the fraudulent media. But regulators and sober minds and powerful people who want to make money from this will push through this if FSD is quantifiably safer than human driving. And. When people use it they will WANT it to be legal. Right now v12.5.6.3 is BONKERS on the highway specifically. City street driving will get there soon too AND CONTINUE TO IMPROVE RAPIDLY. TSLA will hit $1000 next year. People have already died using FSD and AP or when Teslas have caught on fire. The media has done their utmost to spin every occurrence of these events as devastating and 'Tesla bad'. Unsupervised FSD killing humans is unavoidable (all technologies kill people or get used to kill people in some way shape or form). Luddites will Luddite and human psychology doesn't change.
      As for Optimus. Even if AI is improving fast enough to enable rapid and effective training by late next year, the mechanics of Optimus will not be good enough by then. Optimus is still way too slow and fragile and the hardware part of it won't be reasonably solved for 24+ months IMO.
      But. I hope you are right. Optimus is worth 5x to 10x FSD and Robotaxis.

  • @dmontaigne5643
    @dmontaigne5643 18 วันที่ผ่านมา

    Your risk probability factor is Buffet’s margin of safety.

  • @LightStylePro
    @LightStylePro หลายเดือนก่อน +1

    Thanks for sharing. I have a slight disagreement with your assumption about people. Customers who use Uber assume the driver is above average, but still not in the upper 0.001% of all drivers. I am certainly witness to this. They seem to be “above average”, maybe by one standard deviation. That’s being generous. And yet, people choose Uber under the probability of one fatality per every 600,000 miles traveled.

    • @jobhakdi
      @jobhakdi  29 วันที่ผ่านมา

      @@LightStylePro my concern is that an accident with death or injury with no driver present will create horrendous headlines and they basically need to avoid this even at scale for the first few years. That’s very very difficult and requires to be thousands of times safer than human drivers

  • @keithgilbert835
    @keithgilbert835 หลายเดือนก่อน +7

    So I should keep holding my 4000 shares? Ha😊

    • @jobhakdi
      @jobhakdi  หลายเดือนก่อน +2

      Wow 4,000 is pretty good! No investment advice on this channel, but …. Congrats

  • @karltownsend7838
    @karltownsend7838 หลายเดือนก่อน +2

    Next 5-10 year market cap
    Vehicles $1T
    Energy $1T
    FSD/Autonomy/Robotaxi $5T
    Optimus $25T
    Total $36T

    • @fernandoalcoverde399
      @fernandoalcoverde399 หลายเดือนก่อน

      Do you think buying Tesla right now at 344 is too expensive? Do you think the stock price will drop down to 200-250 again?

    • @oggyoggy1299
      @oggyoggy1299 หลายเดือนก่อน

      @@fernandoalcoverde399
      It won’t go under $300 again.

  • @josephchan2050
    @josephchan2050 หลายเดือนก่อน +1

    This is great .How about recession ? it can cot down he price 50% easy.

    • @jobhakdi
      @jobhakdi  หลายเดือนก่อน

      Depending on how severe it is, a recession doesn’t impact my model too much on a strategic level. But you are right in the short term (

    • @josephchan2050
      @josephchan2050 หลายเดือนก่อน

      @@jobhakdi ; Thanks , So, roughly when will recession next year and will this also occur in year 2026 ?

  • @michaelbone6894
    @michaelbone6894 หลายเดือนก่อน +1

    Don't know why everyone doesn't model like this. It's logical and quite simple. It's just the basic statistical concept of expected value applied to company value.

    • @jobhakdi
      @jobhakdi  หลายเดือนก่อน

      Exactly - what I found is that great modeling doesn’t use complex components, but becomes complex because of the multiple layers of components (which each one being simple as a standalone). Another challenge for WS analysts is that my models use a certain discretion (for example, the risk in each dimension: that number is a bit of a gut feeling exercise), which makes my models much more accurate, but also harder to defend for institutions. Banks want highly defensible models that are mostly wrong, rather than discretionary models that are correct

  • @RealRadNek
    @RealRadNek หลายเดือนก่อน +2

    I sure hope your model is right but I do have reservations as you model far exceeds the Cathy Wood model.

    • @jasiaci1
      @jasiaci1 หลายเดือนก่อน +2

      Cathy Wood doesn't model Optimus just Core and FSD

    • @RealRadNek
      @RealRadNek หลายเดือนก่อน +2

      @@jasiaci1yes, I knew that but Cern Basher does and they discount heavily because it is unknown what it will ultimately be, share price that is. Company valuation Cern does but price prediction he does not because the share price is unpredictable. Just stick with Tesla as they continue to execute and even buying at $350 today, you will have at least a 5 bagger by 2030. Just saying, let’s not get to carried away. There are always unknowns.

    • @jasiaci1
      @jasiaci1 หลายเดือนก่อน +3

      @@RealRadNek Agreed, a bagger for 5X by 2030. I'm confident 5X to 30X band by 2030 is not completely absurd. I hope so, I have 19,590 reasons (shares) to believe in it 😀. Also, the world will be a more prosperous, safer and hopefully happier place should Elon/Tesla execute flawlessly!

    • @RealRadNek
      @RealRadNek หลายเดือนก่อน +2

      @ that’s a boatload of shares. I thought I had a boatload. At $1000/share I will retire with much more than I thought possible. Needless to say, my wife and I are talking about starting a foundation to give a lot of it away. Trying to figure out how to leverage the lion’s share for Jesus. It will be fun giving it away to make an eternal impact in people’s lives across the world.

    • @jobhakdi
      @jobhakdi  หลายเดือนก่อน +1

      CERN does a great job, but his discounting model is a bit crude - he mixes cost of capital with actual risk which makes it more vague and confusing, and uses a 10-14% discount rate. It’s cleaner imo to separate the different dimensions of discounting (risk vs cost of capital) out. Company valuation and share price are pretty much interchangeable btw - I am trying to be as clean and clear as possible and always strive to get to a clear share price target on a time line

  • @LarryH49
    @LarryH49 หลายเดือนก่อน +1

    It is not possible to have no deaths be FSD. If it is 1000 or 2000 killed per year but motor vehicle deaths of the rest decrease from 40,000 per year to 22,000 per year then it would be worthwhile.

    • @jobhakdi
      @jobhakdi  หลายเดือนก่อน

      I agree that is will be very very difficult to get to zero. But think about it: a single death by robotaxi will be a giant PR disaster. Just imagine the headlines. The numbers are one thing, but public perception is another. I think it’s a problem we have to think through as Tesla shareholders

  • @4jgh
    @4jgh หลายเดือนก่อน +1

    Wow, wow, wow, yippee yo yippee yay🎉

  • @karlschleifenbaum5793
    @karlschleifenbaum5793 หลายเดือนก่อน +4

    This was a good model with a level-headed approach. I think the political involvement of Elon might raise the key man risk, though.

  • @Michael-il5wd
    @Michael-il5wd หลายเดือนก่อน +3

    You're the best. Please like and comment to help grow the channel

  • @simonmeade6611
    @simonmeade6611 หลายเดือนก่อน +1

    Jo you are incorrect saying Robotaxis need to be thousands of times better and basically zero chance of fatalities. If you can reduce the chance of death or injury by say 50% you would do it. On your logic we would not have seat belts or airbags as people still die.

    • @jobhakdi
      @jobhakdi  หลายเดือนก่อน +1

      I disagree - the reason being that I am thinking about PR risk. Imagine there is a robotaxi fatality (one). It’s going to be horrible and escalate right to the regulators. In politics, it’s not about statistics, it’s about emotions, votes and media

  • @jochemjellema2663
    @jochemjellema2663 หลายเดือนก่อน

    Governments that want to limit the number of robots to protect human jobs should certainly be taken into account!!!
    I think that is the biggest risk

    • @jobhakdi
      @jobhakdi  29 วันที่ผ่านมา

      I have two videos coming that discuss the geostrategic impact of humanoids. Bottom line: governments will be forced to embrace maximum implementation and rollout speed of robots!

  • @Fearinator
    @Fearinator หลายเดือนก่อน +2

    Hi mate, great model!
    Iv had similar predictions on much more simple math, and I’m IN. 1/3 of my assets and 1/3 of my retirement.
    Here what concerns me, and would be great for someone to cover. Tesla is going to be the biggest company ever, but how big can it get when it starts to absorb all the investment cash. Even if the share price only gets to 10k that’s a 40t market cap. 33 Apples or almost as big as the entire current US stock market. That means new money needs to come into the market, right now there is about 6t on the sidelines… mayyybe if the whole world starts allocating to Tesla (and they will) there is probably enough liquidity to grow to here.
    But even a conservative 30k in the 2030s share price is a MC of 120t, that’s bigger than all the world’s stock markets.
    I was looking for some basic measures to put this into perspective next to. There is only 200t “money” in the world. All investments at 0.5 - 1t …?
    Yes, especially bots in the long term will vastly expand productivity, but in the shorts term it’s going to replace more jobs than we invent new ones and put large pressure on government services who’s tax revenue from people labour diminishes while their burden like a UBI / social security will increase.
    If you have any thoughts around this or have modelled anything I would be very interested in them.

    • @jasiaci1
      @jasiaci1 หลายเดือนก่อน +3

      You make some great points, I have Jo reads them

    • @jobhakdi
      @jobhakdi  หลายเดือนก่อน

      I do ! Response above

    • @jobhakdi
      @jobhakdi  หลายเดือนก่อน +1

      Good points. 1) the market cap of a company is not the money that has to go into it. Technically, you could get to 100T with just you paying me 100$ for a Tesla stock I sell you for $100, assuming a lot of stock splits , if no one else trades. In other words, all these market caps are not really needing that amount of money in the market. It’s just a consensus of buyers and sellers at any given point. This consensus over time approximates a 10 year DCF value. In order to get to let’s say 100T, all Tesla has to do is to convince everyone that it will generate 100T in discounted cash flow over the next ten years.

  • @marks3453
    @marks3453 หลายเดือนก่อน

    God forbid it happens but what is the share worth if something bad does happen to Elon? Is there a contingency plan for him? Does someone else take over the future plan of Tesla?Always wise to prepare. Thoughts??

  • @GaminHasard
    @GaminHasard หลายเดือนก่อน

    Technology risk would be an ai that can understand driving without the need to train on billion of miles of data.

  • @anandaweliwita404
    @anandaweliwita404 หลายเดือนก่อน +2

    👍👍👍

  • @natsidruk86
    @natsidruk86 หลายเดือนก่อน

    2500 is more than enough for me. 10 000, then i have to burn the money to spend it all LOL

  • @gioelestendardo2819
    @gioelestendardo2819 หลายเดือนก่อน +1

    man, I really hope you're right but I'm very sure you'll be wrong (I'm a shareholder too)

    • @jobhakdi
      @jobhakdi  หลายเดือนก่อน

      In very sure I am right - I will keep covering this weekly and adjust the risk model accordingly

  • @dhui777
    @dhui777 หลายเดือนก่อน +2

    You seem way too optimistic on Optimus. Tesla is not the only company making and selling robots. Tesla does not have a clear lead in robotics like it has in EVs

    • @dougm659
      @dougm659 หลายเดือนก่อน +4

      Oh but it does…Tesla has the biggest data set on Earth which it feed to its robots so that they understand the world around them and they are adding to that data on a massive scale every day! No one is within a light year of them! Who else can manufacture robots at gigantic scale as quickly as Tesla? No one!

    • @gandyo
      @gandyo หลายเดือนก่อน +1

      ​​@@dougm659not only a data lead. Tesla has a manufacturing lead too. Nobody can scale up and mass manufacture like Tesla can.

    • @jobhakdi
      @jobhakdi  หลายเดือนก่อน +2

      I will do more videos on this - robots are not just hardware , and not just hardware with AI , but three layers : hardware, AI and the application layer. The latter is very poorly understood and described, but will be the central value driver. In this application game , NOONE will use Chinese robots for security reasons. And the only true competition Tesla has in china. Therefore, Tesla will get close to a quasi monopoly in Europe, US and India

    • @dhui777
      @dhui777 หลายเดือนก่อน +1

      @@dougm659 Tesla certainly has more data than anyone on driving. But it’s no longer true for robotics. Similarly, Tesla has lead in mass manufacturing vehicles but not robots, though some experience can carry over. However, I do agree tgst Tesla has lead on computational power to train AI over other robotic companies.

    • @dougm659
      @dougm659 หลายเดือนก่อน

      @@dhui777 each robot that Boston dynamics make costs them over $250k and they’ve been making robots for over fifteen years….Tesla will be making robots for under $20k each within a year and they only started making them a little over two years ago….it’s not a contest!

  • @MeditationMindless
    @MeditationMindless หลายเดือนก่อน

    So based on this my goal is 50 shares then retire 2030 :D

  • @mikekeithr
    @mikekeithr หลายเดือนก่อน +1

    There is not even close to that much $ in the world.

    • @jobhakdi
      @jobhakdi  หลายเดือนก่อน

      Not yet. Money is a function of economic value, and economic value is a function of value creation, which is a function of labor and technology. With a massive explosion of qualified labor , we will see a massive expansion of value

  • @ARNOLD5698
    @ARNOLD5698 หลายเดือนก่อน +1

    Steve Jobs died…

  • @ssing7113
    @ssing7113 หลายเดือนก่อน

    I agree with FSD being longer and harder then people think.
    I think the same with robotics. In a fantasy we’d have one bot in reality we have hundreds of different robot designs for task specific. We haven’t found a good solution for an all in one design. And I don’t think that includes Optimus.
    Also I think Elon risk needs to be far higher. The guy doesn’t test healthy. Overworks. Over stresses. And now with republican more death threats should occur. . He passes we all know no one can replace him in intelligence. We just hope they get a Tim cookie that can print 💰 💰 💰
    I cannot agree with pricing as well. The multiples and P/E would be way way too high for comfort given FSD is far out. We have only 4 gigafactories.
    I’d say cut everything in half… that’s its true values. As Tesla is far from a money printer.
    Also the transition to no one owning cars which all the rich will have their rolls Royce chauffeurs. That rollout would take a minimum of 60 years. As some keep cars for 10-15 years. Gas is not going away anytime ever soon . .
    I don’t see it. I have millions in with one stock ( Tesla ) but it’s hype train right now like peak $420 pricing.
    We’re having to buy down credits and give free FSD. Far from a mega P/E valuation

  • @organic3132
    @organic3132 หลายเดือนก่อน

    Do you even know how many trillions of dollars is that? 😅 that’s simply impossible

    • @jobhakdi
      @jobhakdi  29 วันที่ผ่านมา

      It's 30x from here, meaning $30T. Imagine telling someone in the 1950ies the earth would have 8B humans, US GDP would be $30T 70 years later - they would not have believed it. What we are seeing now is a 10x acceleration (at least) of these timelines. Wait and see....

    • @organic3132
      @organic3132 29 วันที่ผ่านมา

      @ I agree, but from 1950s until today we have 70 years. And you are predicting that price for next 6-7 years.

  • @omarkraidie
    @omarkraidie หลายเดือนก่อน

    Tesla was $180 literally a few months ago AND nothing has fundamentally changed with the business :D. So buy at $180-200 else better opportunities LMAO.

    • @Wynzi
      @Wynzi หลายเดือนก่อน

      some risk factors has changed like regulatory/politics.

  • @sruyle
    @sruyle 24 วันที่ผ่านมา

    I think your political and regulatory risk need to be higher for both. I'm thinking 25-30%. You ware coming for people's jobs with Optimus and Robotaxi has the potential to kill people so in my mind there is a much higher likelihood that the technology is held back or is less profitable when you factor in how much they will be held liable in accidents or that people will want job taking robots regulated.

  • @loweryjk
    @loweryjk หลายเดือนก่อน

    Need a link to your x account

    • @jobhakdi
      @jobhakdi  หลายเดือนก่อน

      X.com/jobhakdi

  • @chris.foreal
    @chris.foreal หลายเดือนก่อน +2

    My model predicts TESLA @ $50k/share Two Days Before the Day After Tomorrow

    • @jasiaci1
      @jasiaci1 หลายเดือนก่อน +1

      Very Witty!

  • @andre1987eph
    @andre1987eph 24 วันที่ผ่านมา

    I think a more sensible prediction involves an historical market cap evaluation.Assume Tesla will be the number one company, then predict total Global GDP and Tesla's % of Global Market cap, based on historical data. Anything else is HOPIUM, and wishful thinking. For example your price target in 5 years )$10,422) would put Tesla at an unheard of 33% of global GDP when the highest historical is Apple at 3%. See calculations: To calculate Tesla's market capitalization and its percentage of global GDP:
    1. Tesla's outstanding shares: 3.17 billion.
    2. Global GDP (2024 estimate): $105 trillion.
    Market capitalization = Share price × Number of outstanding shares
    = 10,422 × 3.17 billion
    = $33.05 trillion.
    Market cap as a percentage of global GDP = (Market cap / Global GDP) × 100
    = (33.05 trillion / 105 trillion) × 100
    = 31.48%.
    Final answer:
    Market cap: $33.05 trillion
    Market cap as a percentage of global GDP: 31.48%