Subscribed today. I have been informed greatly and pleasantly by your videos in the past, and now see I have simply forgotten to do the minimum 'thank you' beyond simply 'liking' your content. You RAWK!
TH-cam ads are getting out of control. I’m not sure if you have any control over that or not. Have you every considered moving to another platform such as Rumble?
Cern is by far my favorite guest. He has the most analytical mind and builds the best models towards understanding potential for Tesla’s furure business.
True. There is lots of redundancy but not everyone listens every day or to every video. Herbert is still the most comprehensive in Tesla coverage and deserves lots of credit for his efforts.
Every time Cern comes on the show, I get real excited......these are conservative numbers!!!.....MIND IS OFFICIALLY BLOWN (AGAIN)!!!.......thanks Cern for all of your hard work.
Cern is an absolute G! This is WILD! Love the presentation as always with the charts and graphs from Cern. every time Cern and Herbert drop a video like this it’s even easier to justify buying Tesla at what ever price it is today. Don’t care if it’s $400 today because it’s going to be worth a lot more in 5-10 years time
I have just saved this interview to watch again and again. It was fantastic, thank you Cern for the most considered and precise breakdown of Tesla I have seen. I will also share it with friends to show them what to expect in the coming years. Epic!😃
Well, I feel investors should be focusing on under-the-radar stocks, and considering the current rollercoaster nature of the stock market, Because 35% of my $270k portfolio comprises plummeting stocks that were once revered and I don't know where to go here out of devastation.
The safest approach I feel to tackle it is to diversify investments. By spreading investments across different asset classes, like bonds, real estate, and international stocks, they can reduce the impact of a market meltdown.
@@RodericksCurrys I totally agree. A financial advisor can provide valuable insights and help ensure that our investment portfolios are aligned with our long-term financial goals. They have the expertise to navigate through market fluctuations and make informed decisions.
@@SloansHagers The beauty of MARGARET MOLLI ALVEY approach is her dual focus: while aggressively pursuing profit opportunities, she's equally tenacious about shielding investors from potential pitfalls. It's a balance few can achieve.
I've been an investor in Nvidia for the past six years now because I strongly believe in the company and in the stock, but now I've been thinking of redistributing my portfolio of about $560k and buy other stocks. and asset classes. Maybe buy Tesla? They are also doing great things in the AI space. Some digital currencies too. What do you think?
A lot of folks downplay the role of advlsors until being burnt by their own emotions. I remember couple summers back, after my lengthy divorce, I needed a good boost to help my business stay afloat, hence I researched for licensed advisors and came across someone of utmost qualifications. She's helped grow my reserve notwithstanding inflation, from $275k to $850k.
This is definitely considerable! think you could suggest any professional/advisors i can get on the phone with? i'm in dire need of proper portfoIlo allocation
*''TRUDY ELIZABETH STOUFFER’'* a highly respected figure in her field. I suggest delving deeper into her credentials, as she possesses extensive experience and serves as a valuable resource for individuals seeking guidance in navigating the financial market
Thanks Cern, and Herbert. I watch this video twice and value how you made a projection. Nobody does it like you and there are other analysis with also valuable graphs that are possible. Cern is on a league of his own, I am sure Elon Musk is following your projections. Nice Job
@@michaelnurse9089 Okay, maybe I'm wrong but just the fact a company is so close to government and people expect it will be good for business and their stock, is something I didn't see coming, and it makes me sad.
Cern, this is incredible! No other analyst has brought the opportunity to light this clearly. We're looking in the future. Elon has laid out the plan in plain English. If you could see in the future, take advantage of this opportunity... Just awesome. Even if you're half correct. I think you're likely right on.
Cern is the greatest of all time 😅... Really appreciate the way you present the variables in your model. Your assumptions are also reasonable and clear. Everytime you present it's worth paying attention. Thank you, Cern, Herbert. If you could team up with Adam Dorr, Jordon (the limiting factor) - i.e., Cern, Adam, Jordan, Herbert to have a discussion on battery and energy requirements into a 4th industrial revolution - it would be special to hear. The more energy produced (especially if without negative externalities) the more energy consumed. I assume the total world energy requirements will not simply go (near) full electric - it will grow more than we've assumed thus far. The denominator on global energy demand - demand itself (i.e., TAM) will expand - I assume - since history seems to suggest. E.g., imagine Tesla as a "mech' wear" (i.e., biosynthetic - Neuralink'esque) company also - that would likely rival bots in value 😅 Tesla cyberpunk lol - prosthetic arms, legs, eyes, etc., probably no BCIs. Then there's the general AI initiatives. Christ❗ Thus, in the longer term, we're still being conservative, perhaps 😅? 🙏🏾❗ Thank you
I wish this was all happening ten years ago….I’ll be in my 70’s when Tesla moves me from comfortably off to rich….😐 Good to see that there are more analysts with brains out there who are willing and able to look a decade ahead instead of the dolts on Wall Street who can’t see past the next quarter! Cernbasher, Ark Invest and Solving the Money Problem all give me confidence that my money is on the right horse!
This is probably the best overall analysis I’ve ever seen for Tesla’s potential. It’s crazy that a $3500 per share valuation in 2035 comes from extremely conservative assumptions (10% Robotaxi probability and 10% Optimus probability)
I'm sorry fellow subscribers but you guys are so lazy with that like button. The amount of value that comes out of these videos he should atleast get the standard 10% view/like ratio. Thanks Herbert and Cern, amazing show. The future is indeed bright!
Great channel Herbert and thank you Cern for taking the time to share with us your analysis. I'm 58yrs and jumped on board about two months ago going All In buying 383 shares. I'm looking forward to paying off my house $150,000 and buying a new vehicle in five years give or take and still have shares.
Once again, Cern's analysis and calculations encourage me to stay with Tesla for several more years. Heck, my money doesn't have anything better to do than grow.
Dunno. When nobody needs needs to work to survive then we will all focus on our diet so much more. Ostrich burgers will be in demand. Make sure you use bots for labour though...
Tesla will either do a share buyback or pay a great dividend in the next 5 years as they start printing money. It’s so exciting to see how this plays out!
There’s a lot more to build before dividends. Once a company starts they shouldn’t stop. Buyback potentially if factories are already covered in budget and credits/laws are known. Exciting
@ if they can be productive with the money continued growth sounds great. At some point (I am thinking 5ish years), they will have to do something with all their money.
The discount rate is the method used to bring future stock prices back to the present day. So a 14% discount rate is the annual return that an investor might require to invest in the stock. Said another way, future dollars are worth less than today's dollars.
Could you please consider removing the price value from the title? It sounds so ridiculous, that many my friends will reject that even without looking, because this sounds too good. And I want them to watch this whole video!
Take over an entire abandoned mall. Have major charging, sales, service and off-road course for CT, let people drive the Semi, rent out to a supermarket chain and a movie theater chain, do a Tesla laundromat there and then rent space on the outskirts to third parties who want to sell to Tesla customers and EV owners in general. People can experience Optimus and see the robotaxi fleet being cleaned and charged and sent out again. It’d be part amusement park tbh 😊 Cover most of it in solar and have a BESS and it’ll be a good sized power plant too. These could become new malls with a purpose and a sustainable ethos from the start. These could be a large source of revenue. But they should make one asap and really go for it somewhere in Austin area.
Even with a p/e of 100, that would require $100/share earnings. Next year, they're estimated to make $3.24. From $3.24 to $100 would require earnings to double every year.
@@darylfoster7944 It is not coming from existing earnings. It will come from new earnings from Robotaxi/Optimus. Revenue growth will be nothing for a dozen or so quarters and then suddenly take off in just a couple - think Apple with the iPhone.
Very informative Cern. I would love to spend 2-3 hours with you pouring over these numbers and questions I have in more detail. Good work though. Thanks so much for sharing!! 🚀🚀
It is no longer business as usual. At the point Tesla is worth 20% of World GDP. That's what happens when you make a machine that replaces the human body, which has inside of it a machine that replaces the human mind.
IMHO I think ultimately the auto business of Tesla will be the Robotaxi business but that will take several years…beyond 2030-2035. The robotaxi ramp up will take several years and the expansion worldwide. People still would like to drive their Teslas as they are so much fun and Tesla could still sell them the FSD package meanwhile. The regulators could also play a big role how fast will they allow them (worldwide) to operate. Great show Cern is 👌🏽🙏🏼👏🏽👏🏽👏🏽
About the "Potential Share Price" charts, I think it would be much more straightforward to show a chart of the "Estimated Fair Price by Year". I guess this is what the blue chart shows, but the way it's presented is confusing.
Cern has revealed what many 'Tesla Opimist' are inviting people to pay for (a long term evaluation- both Bull, moderate and Bear case) in a simple to understand method. Admittedly, I have not 'subscribed' to said evaluations, but am convinced that those whom have required compensation for such info would largely agree that this module is at least close to their own evaluation. Thank you, Cern, for divulging your module freely, and giving investors something tangible to consider, which is largely optimistic. I know you will receive a lot of pushback on this by those who deem any real 'value' in Tesla, and I trust you are prepared to 'produce the reciepts'. True, we do not know what the future holds, but anyone investing in any company should, at very least, look at past performance (not time lines) to make a sound decision.
The reason Tesla is so undervalued is that 90% of the industry believe the ONLY, ONLY, ONLY thing that matters is past results, and based on that one or two quarters projected forward. That is why Wall Street consensus says Tesla is worth 200 or something like that. There are lots of other videos analysing Tesla's results - normally just past release of the results. This video is all about projecting forward the value of businesses that have not yet earned any revenue.
Just found the channel def subbed, thank you for the great information! 10k beginner investor here, is it too late to enter this cycle? or would i see more gain at a lower entry point? if so when you do think the next dip will occur speculatively?
I would like to know how Cern came to his daily revenue model for Optimus. He’s estimating $27 per day of revenue per bot. That’s a low cost for a business and a high cost for an individual. Elon says everyone will have one or more in their house. That makes me think the monthly cost will be much lower than Cern’s projection. Not to mention that other companies are already selling a low cost bot. I’m not aware of their monthly charge if any, but I bet it’s significantly lower than Cern’s estimate for Optimus
Herbert and I have done a few videos on bots where we've discussed this. In the early years the profit on a bot will be much higher than $27/day. In the later years the profit could be lower, but on billions of bots the total profit would be gigantic.
This is why nobody wanted to say the real value out loud people throw rocks at things they can’t wrap their head around you’re messing up their world view
What are the best strategies to protect my portfolio? I've heard that a downturn will devastate the financial market, so I'm concerned about my $200k stock portfolio.
Some strategies could be put in place for solid gains regardless of the economic situation, but such execution is usually carried out by an investment specialist.
@@AdlenGrassi I've been in touch with a financial analyst ever since I started investing. Knowing today's culture The challenge is knowing when to purchase or sell when investing in trending stocks, which is pretty simple. On my portfolio, which has grown over $900k in a little over a year, my adviser chooses entry and exit orders.
@@QumarsNou MARGARET MOLLI ALVEY is a highly respected figure in her field. I suggest delving deeper into her credentials, as she possesses extensive experience and is a valuable resource for individuals seeking guidance in navigating the financial market.
@@LovisaJawadi I copied her whole name and pasted it into my browser; her website appeared immediately, and her qualifications are excellent; thank you for sharing.
Pls consider subscribing to help me to get to 100k subs?
It's a simple act but goes a long way to help me and the channel.
Thank you! 🙏
I would if I could subscribe twice! Great channel
Subscribed today. I have been informed greatly and pleasantly by your videos in the past, and now see I have simply forgotten to do the minimum 'thank you' beyond simply 'liking' your content.
You RAWK!
TH-cam ads are getting out of control. I’m not sure if you have any control over that or not. Have you every considered moving to another platform such as Rumble?
Cern is by far my favorite guest. He has the most analytical mind and builds the best models towards understanding potential for Tesla’s furure business.
I hate to be too harsh, as this is all free content, but a lot of this channel has become redundant lately. Cern is great.
True. There is lots of redundancy but not everyone listens every day or to every video. Herbert is still the most comprehensive in Tesla coverage and deserves lots of credit for his efforts.
Do my own research? That's what we have Cern for 😅😍
Thanks! Cern Basher my favorite!!
Thanks Keith!
Every time Cern comes on the show, I get real excited......these are conservative numbers!!!.....MIND IS OFFICIALLY BLOWN (AGAIN)!!!.......thanks Cern for all of your hard work.
Between Cern and Jeff I feel like I have a crystal ball and am making all the right decisions (long hold TSLA).
Amazing Cern. And especially since Elon has made the announcement on our latest vid we will be expecting a very interesting ride ahead.
Eventually things like this will beat BTC and ETH because they have AI tech which scales by itself and needs less power consumption
I’ve been following Elon for years, and I trust his vision. xAI is going to change the game!
I really can't wait for the xAI smart contracts. I want to build something!
Good that they got it working in time! Let's go! Trump 2024!
I'm excited to see how xAI unfolds. Self interest meets good outcome.. indeed..
It's always delightful listening to Cern unpack his latest analysis and how he builds on the previous picture. Well done Cern
This is the only guests I enjoyed watching all throughout your video. Thanks for the great graphs/charts/visuals and explanations.
Thanks!
Thank you Rex!
I’m in Connecticut and will be buying a Tesla in early 2025.
Don't know if you care, but you may not get the $7500 if you wait until next year.
@@darylfoster7944 just buy the stock!
@ I don’t qualify for the $7500 deduction.
Do not buy a Tesla, buy the shares
@ I already have the shares. Somebody has to buy the cars and I need another car.
Cern is an absolute G! This is WILD! Love the presentation as always with the charts and graphs from Cern. every time Cern and Herbert drop a video like this it’s even easier to justify buying Tesla at what ever price it is today. Don’t care if it’s $400 today because it’s going to be worth a lot more in 5-10 years time
An extremely thorough, exciting and rational examination of Tesla's future potential.Exellent work.
I have just saved this interview to watch again and again. It was fantastic, thank you Cern for the most considered and precise breakdown of Tesla I have seen. I will also share it with friends to show them what to expect in the coming years. Epic!😃
I predict Cern will go down in history for this. I have not seen an opportunity like this with the clarity of vision.
Well, I feel investors should be focusing on under-the-radar stocks, and considering the current rollercoaster nature of the stock market, Because 35% of my $270k portfolio comprises plummeting stocks that were once revered and I don't know where to go here out of devastation.
The safest approach I feel to tackle it is to diversify investments. By spreading investments across different asset classes, like bonds, real estate, and international stocks, they can reduce the impact of a market meltdown.
@@RodericksCurrys I totally agree. A financial advisor can provide valuable insights and help ensure that our investment portfolios are aligned with our long-term financial goals. They have the expertise to navigate through market fluctuations and make informed decisions.
@@RobisonsWades I’ve been down a ton, I’m only holding on so I can recoup, I need help, who is this investment adviser that guides you?
@@SloansHagers The beauty of MARGARET MOLLI ALVEY approach is her dual focus: while aggressively pursuing profit opportunities, she's equally tenacious about shielding investors from potential pitfalls. It's a balance few can achieve.
@@RobisonsWades Thank you for this amazing tip. I just looked the name up and wrote her explaining my financial market goals.
I've been an investor in Nvidia for the past six years now because I strongly believe in the company and in the stock, but now I've been thinking of redistributing my portfolio of about $560k and buy other stocks. and asset classes. Maybe buy Tesla? They are also doing great things in the AI space. Some digital currencies too. What do you think?
investors like you should be cautious of the bull run, its best you connect with a well-qualified adviser to meet your growth goals and avoid blunder.
A lot of folks downplay the role of advlsors until being burnt by their own emotions. I remember couple summers back, after my lengthy divorce, I needed a good boost to help my business stay afloat, hence I researched for licensed advisors and came across someone of utmost qualifications. She's helped grow my reserve notwithstanding inflation, from $275k to $850k.
This is definitely considerable! think you could suggest any professional/advisors i can get on the phone with? i'm in dire need of proper portfoIlo allocation
*''TRUDY ELIZABETH STOUFFER’'* a highly respected figure in her field. I suggest delving deeper into her credentials, as she possesses extensive experience and serves as a valuable resource for individuals seeking guidance in navigating the financial market
Thank you for the lead. I searched her up, and I have sent her an email. I hope she gets back to me soon.
Superb analysis, thank you Cern and Herb.
Thanks a lot, you just made it impossible for me to get a Cybertruck. NO way I can sell TSLA now to fund a Cybertruck purchase.
Sorry
Short term pain for long term gain, worth it 😁
Why buy when you can lease..and still keep your growing stock
hang in there for 5 years and buy 5 Flying Cybertrucks
What a gift!! Thank you Cern. Your hard work and diligence is very comforting. All we need now is Tesla to deliver 😃
Thanks Cern, and Herbert. I watch this video twice and value how you made a projection. Nobody does it like you and there are other analysis with also valuable graphs that are possible. Cern is on a league of his own, I am sure Elon Musk is following your projections. Nice Job
Great video Herbert. I love hearing from Cern. Super feasable and articulate modelling breakdowns.
I'm listening again to this video. My fsd v12.5.4.2 is driving A to B without intervention. Smoother and safer than human.
I've been talking to my friends and family about Tesla subs since 2019. I've never met someone who can wrap their head around it.
Same, i got them to buy some shares tho
@@Tjmalloy2Me too. Some don’t have a lot, but even a little should set them up for a good retirement.
If you tell them corruption is a good thing nowadays; they will understand.
@@crazyloopster That does not make sense.
@@michaelnurse9089 Okay, maybe I'm wrong but just the fact a company is so close to government and people expect it will be good for business and their stock, is something I didn't see coming, and it makes me sad.
Love a bit of Cern Basher on a Saturday night!
Might be the best Cern video I've seen and I watch a lot!
Herbert, you are the goat in what you doing. Thanks a lot for bringing such an amazing content!!!!
Very relevant analysis by Cern. Thanks!🙏
Hello from Germany and thx for you information from Tesla 🙌🏽💪🏼
Wow. Thanks for sharing this excellent work. 🙏
Love these presentations by Cern. Offers so much insight and awareness into Tesla's potential. Thank you both!
I’ve been dreaming about 20 million auto sales by 2030 and this is just the entree to the Robotaxis and Optimus possibilities. Holy Moly.
Future is bright! Those forecasts are off the charts!
Thank you CERN!
This is such an amazing video love the analysis! Cern is awesome ! Love when he’s on the show! So much Alpha !
I can relate to Herbert in regards to 3 year projections. This makes more sense for 3-5 year retirement portfolios.
Cern, this is incredible! No other analyst has brought the opportunity to light this clearly. We're looking in the future. Elon has laid out the plan in plain English. If you could see in the future, take advantage of this opportunity... Just awesome. Even if you're half correct. I think you're likely right on.
Cern is the greatest of all time 😅... Really appreciate the way you present the variables in your model. Your assumptions are also reasonable and clear.
Everytime you present it's worth paying attention.
Thank you, Cern, Herbert.
If you could team up with Adam Dorr, Jordon (the limiting factor) - i.e., Cern, Adam, Jordan, Herbert to have a discussion on battery and energy requirements into a 4th industrial revolution - it would be special to hear.
The more energy produced (especially if without negative externalities) the more energy consumed. I assume the total world energy requirements will not simply go (near) full electric - it will grow more than we've assumed thus far. The denominator on global energy demand - demand itself (i.e., TAM) will expand - I assume - since history seems to suggest. E.g., imagine Tesla as a "mech' wear" (i.e., biosynthetic - Neuralink'esque) company also - that would likely rival bots in value 😅 Tesla cyberpunk lol - prosthetic arms, legs, eyes, etc., probably no BCIs. Then there's the general AI initiatives. Christ❗
Thus, in the longer term, we're still being conservative, perhaps 😅?
🙏🏾❗ Thank you
Optimus isn't creating one business, it's creating 1000s of businesses.
Wonderful analysis and considering contributing factors. Appreciate your both!
Thank you Cern and Herbert, appreciate you research 🎉
Thank you so much 🎉🎉
Im 67 and pray I get my Bot before I’m 70, the Bot will dramatically improve quality of life for the aging and ALL RETIREES. 🔥💕🌎😊
Agreed! Tesla seems to focus on factory use for now, but home use will be critical to many.
Doubly so if one's body starts to give in.
Best breakdown ever!
Bam. So well laid out. I finally understand why different people view present day value with such variety. How far willing to peer into future.😮
I wish this was all happening ten years ago….I’ll be in my 70’s when Tesla moves me from comfortably off to rich….😐
Good to see that there are more analysts with brains out there who are willing and able to look a decade ahead instead of the dolts on Wall Street who can’t see past the next quarter! Cernbasher, Ark Invest and Solving the Money Problem all give me confidence that my money is on the right horse!
This is excellent. Cern is my new favorite. Herbert is obviously my all time favorite!!
Amazing video. Thank you so much!!!
Thanks a lot trillion$ information and the best analyzing ever….
This is probably the best overall analysis I’ve ever seen for Tesla’s potential. It’s crazy that a $3500 per share valuation in 2035 comes from extremely conservative assumptions (10% Robotaxi probability and 10% Optimus probability)
Great info Cern
I'm sorry fellow subscribers but you guys are so lazy with that like button. The amount of value that comes out of these videos he should atleast get the standard 10% view/like ratio. Thanks Herbert and Cern, amazing show. The future is indeed bright!
This guy analysis is outstanding.
Really appreciate all of this great value. TSLA is a smaller part of my portfolio but I’m holding for 10 years plus
thanks Cern!
Cern is awesome. He actually help me plug my car in on the way to Florida a month ago super nice guy!
Thank You Cern !!!!
Optimus can be sent to Mars to create a human-friendly environment
Thanks Herbert and Cern, monumental work, Thanks. This kills for sure the last shorty is he Mark Kuban?
They say that shorting Tesla will one day make Bill Gates a millionaire.
Is there some way one can get these spread sheets? They are fantastic.
Great channel Herbert and thank you Cern for taking the time to share with us your analysis. I'm 58yrs and jumped on board about two months ago going All In buying 383 shares. I'm looking forward to paying off my house $150,000 and buying a new vehicle in five years give or take and still have shares.
Once again, Cern's analysis and calculations encourage me to stay with Tesla for several more years. Heck, my money doesn't have anything better to do than grow.
Thats S curve chart is bananas! We are going to be very rich!
I'm long and conviction buy but this analysis has got me excited again.
Great analysis Herbert of Tesla future PV and business template. Do you have one of PLTR ?
Excellent projection and very encouraging analysis, very much appreciated!
Great, it helps me a lot
So much for my "Ostrich-Burger" business 😊
Dunno. When nobody needs needs to work to survive then we will all focus on our diet so much more. Ostrich burgers will be in demand. Make sure you use bots for labour though...
@@michaelnurse9089 👍
Tesla will either do a share buyback or pay a great dividend in the next 5 years as they start printing money. It’s so exciting to see how this plays out!
There’s a lot more to build before dividends. Once a company starts they shouldn’t stop.
Buyback potentially if factories are already covered in budget and credits/laws are known. Exciting
@ if they can be productive with the money continued growth sounds great. At some point (I am thinking 5ish years), they will have to do something with all their money.
No chance. If they do that it means they have no better use for the money and that implies it is time to sell.
@@michaelnurse9089 We shall see.
Exactly!
Amazing Cern! Thank you Herbert, we benefit so much from that channel!
What did the final slide mean by ‘14% discount rate’? Great video, thankyou.
The discount rate is the method used to bring future stock prices back to the present day. So a 14% discount rate is the annual return that an investor might require to invest in the stock. Said another way, future dollars are worth less than today's dollars.
Is there a link to Cern‘s spreadsheets?
Thank you CERN💪❤️ for making the best week in 4 years of my life even better ❗️ Providing us an even BETTER Saturday morning 🙏
Could you please consider removing the price value from the title? It sounds so ridiculous, that many my friends will reject that even without looking, because this sounds too good. And I want them to watch this whole video!
Take over an entire abandoned mall. Have major charging, sales, service and off-road course for CT, let people drive the Semi, rent out to a supermarket chain and a movie theater chain, do a Tesla laundromat there and then rent space on the outskirts to third parties who want to sell to Tesla customers and EV owners in general.
People can experience Optimus and see the robotaxi fleet being cleaned and charged and sent out again. It’d be part amusement park tbh 😊
Cover most of it in solar and have a BESS and it’ll be a good sized power plant too.
These could become new malls with a purpose and a sustainable ethos from the start.
These could be a large source of revenue. But they should make one asap and really go for it somewhere in Austin area.
CERN is the best
Absolutely outstanding presentation! Thank you Herbert, thank you Cern!
Thanks for sharing this. A completely rational and sensible analysis. This is a valuable presentation for anyone who is forward looking, THANK YOU !
Herbert and Cern thank you so much for an amazing presentation! I guess I will keep my stocks a little while longer than 2025 haha :)
In my personal valuation model I have Tesla @ around 10k$/stock in 2030. Nice to see that we're on the same ballpark.
Even with a p/e of 100, that would require $100/share earnings. Next year, they're estimated to make $3.24. From $3.24 to $100 would require earnings to double every year.
I would be ecstatic if TSLA only goes up to 20% of your valuation model @ $2,000 per share!!!
@@darylfoster7944how much is the labor of 10,000 humans worth a year? Double that 10 times.
@davidbeppler3032 that absolutely will not happen in five years. Maybe 20 years, possibly longer.
@@darylfoster7944 It is not coming from existing earnings. It will come from new earnings from Robotaxi/Optimus. Revenue growth will be nothing for a dozen or so quarters and then suddenly take off in just a couple - think Apple with the iPhone.
Very informative Cern. I would love to spend 2-3 hours with you pouring over these numbers and questions I have in more detail. Good work though. Thanks so much for sharing!! 🚀🚀
Thank you CERN ! Epic analysis & thank you Herbert for being part of this wonderful Tesla community
30,000 shares price "that's a big number"😂
It is no longer business as usual. At the point Tesla is worth 20% of World GDP. That's what happens when you make a machine that replaces the human body, which has inside of it a machine that replaces the human mind.
IMHO I think ultimately the auto business of Tesla will be the Robotaxi business but that will take several years…beyond 2030-2035. The robotaxi ramp up will take several years and the expansion worldwide. People still would like to drive their Teslas as they are so much fun and Tesla could still sell them the FSD package meanwhile. The regulators could also play a big role how fast will they allow them (worldwide) to operate. Great show Cern is 👌🏽🙏🏼👏🏽👏🏽👏🏽
Elon "I see a pathway for TESLA to become the biggest company..." "Numbers are nutty"
About the "Potential Share Price" charts, I think it would be much more straightforward to show a chart of the "Estimated Fair Price by Year". I guess this is what the blue chart shows, but the way it's presented is confusing.
Thanks for the feedback
Are all these companies under the tesla stock?
Cern has revealed what many 'Tesla Opimist' are inviting people to pay for (a long term evaluation- both Bull, moderate and Bear case) in a simple to understand method.
Admittedly, I have not 'subscribed' to said evaluations, but am convinced that those whom have required compensation for such info would largely agree that this module is at least close to their own evaluation.
Thank you, Cern, for divulging your module freely, and giving investors something tangible to consider, which is largely optimistic.
I know you will receive a lot of pushback on this by those who deem any real 'value' in Tesla, and I trust you are prepared to 'produce the reciepts'. True, we do not know what the future holds, but anyone investing in any company should, at very least, look at past performance (not time lines) to make a sound decision.
Yes, I’m happy to discuss my modeling approach with all whom wish to challenge it.
The reason Tesla is so undervalued is that 90% of the industry believe the ONLY, ONLY, ONLY thing that matters is past results, and based on that one or two quarters projected forward. That is why Wall Street consensus says Tesla is worth 200 or something like that. There are lots of other videos analysing Tesla's results - normally just past release of the results. This video is all about projecting forward the value of businesses that have not yet earned any revenue.
@@michaelnurse9089 Yes, it takes a little courage to see things that have never existed before.
Just found the channel def subbed, thank you for the great information! 10k beginner investor here, is it too late to enter this cycle? or would i see more gain at a lower entry point? if so when you do think the next dip will occur speculatively?
I am deeply believed that Tesla is marching towards Cern’s vision, thank you both!
Thanks - fantastic model and great visualisations as well. Exciting times ahead.
I would like to know how Cern came to his daily revenue model for Optimus. He’s estimating $27 per day of revenue per bot. That’s a low cost for a business and a high cost for an individual. Elon says everyone will have one or more in their house. That makes me think the monthly cost will be much lower than Cern’s projection.
Not to mention that other companies are already selling a low cost bot. I’m not aware of their monthly charge if any, but I bet it’s significantly lower than Cern’s estimate for Optimus
Herbert and I have done a few videos on bots where we've discussed this. In the early years the profit on a bot will be much higher than $27/day. In the later years the profit could be lower, but on billions of bots the total profit would be gigantic.
This is why nobody wanted to say the real value out loud people throw rocks at things they can’t wrap their head around you’re messing up their world view
Awesome analysis!
What are the best strategies to protect my portfolio? I've heard that a downturn will devastate the financial market, so I'm concerned about my $200k stock portfolio.
Some strategies could be put in place for solid gains regardless of the economic situation, but such execution is usually carried out by an investment specialist.
@@AdlenGrassi I've been in touch with a financial analyst ever since I started investing. Knowing today's culture The challenge is knowing when to purchase or sell when investing in trending stocks, which is pretty simple. On my portfolio, which has grown over $900k in a little over a year, my adviser chooses entry and exit orders.
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Awesome content, thanks so much for providing such a great spectrum with which to consider TSLA’s evaluation!
Go CERN💪❤️
What about the Chinese taking most of that robot market share?
Could you do similar projection for NVDIA?
Cern does this consider annual subscription for each Optimus? I would assume at least $500/mo - $1000/mo
Yes. I’ve modeled Optimus several ways. The subscription model is very attractive and very profitable for Tesla.
This is one of the best vedio on Tesla. The future projected stock price blows my mind. Great work Cern and thank you. Love every minutes of it.
I want a robo dog to play with and clean up after my real dog.