Almost 1000 of my shares are in my IRA, so no selling puts in there for me. The wild swings the past few weeks has me sticking to only way out of the money covered calls.
I've been selling out of money TSLA calls on my Roth IRA for small gains. Recently sold Jan 17 $700 calls for a couple dollars, now it's worth .20s cents. I'm pretty sure it will expire worthless. It's practically free money every months.
@@jobhakdi Yeah, going against the advice of the fund manager in 2019 by moving $15k from index funds into 60 TSLA shares has worked out well.🙂 I've moved it to a self directed account since then.
Thanks for your video- super interesting strategy. How do you manage the ITM options you have sold-- if you let it go to expiration- they will geet exercised. Do you close them out before then and if so, when is ideal time? Happy New Near Jo!
I agree that Tesla will very likely do extremely well over the next 5 years as you say but to go all in like that is pure insanity. Crazy things happen that you can't predict...there's no need for greed.
I'm confused, You're selling a 480 put so that's $60 in the money, so if Tesla doesn't go over 480 you won't get the whole premium is that correct? If the stock goes up you'll make money on the short puts but not the whole premium unless it goes over the strike price, so what am I missing? And you're slightly in the money on the calls with a 410 if I remember correctly so if the stock doesn't move at all won't you Have to buy them back or be assigned?
Think of it like this: 480 short out + 410 short call. The call gives you a $10 premium , the short $2. So in total, you get $12 more than it’s worth. Then, as long as the stock stays between the two strike prices, any movement will just get offset between the two positions and the combined premium is yours. Only if the stock moves beyond either strike does the losses of one not get offset by the gains of the other (aka, then I am in trouble).
I think the most likely outcome is that numbers come in between 505 and 515, which will not do much (maybe lead to a small run up). My main risk would be bad numbers - sub 500k, which could lead to a breakout to the downside
Bro, you can’t buy in base on momentum or fomo. Should’ve loaded up in the 160s. Nothing changed fundamentally in the company at 160’s or 450’s. it moon base on hype and fomo, nothing fundamentally.
A very insightful video once again. As you know, I also try to generate alpha over a 100% $TSLA. Which is not easy. So far, I mostly sell OTM puts of 6 months or so, basically I do that on points where I think $TSLA at a resistance point. I am a little more sceptical about the share price and I think the bears will attack the 414 old ATH and I participate that they might succeed, I give that a 60% probability. So, I will wait a little longer to see what happens. Thx again and talk to you on X.
My bets are that it's popping up going into new year, but may miss numbers thursday by a tiny bit and follow the rest of the market down first few days of the new year, probably lots of people selling big winners with capital gains pushed to the next year -- tech is too high. I'm also mostly in tsla and have been, but liquidated increasingly to cash and played calls/puts during Nov/Dec to maximize..... banking on a dip with expected market slow and rocky january, with the big 2025 beginning a ramp after q4 earnings end of Jan. Can't wait to be all back in, but too high too fast needs a retest at some levels below 420..
I bought in fomo, at $425. It was just going up then suddenly came down, and at the moment,it sits at $401. I'm debating selling some to buy some amd, and nividia. Possibly Uber.
With your statement, you do not understand the point. The guy is trying to anticipate market moves for the coming 4 days. He defines a position on Monday based on his analysis. He chooses a bullish, bearish, or neutral scenario and engages in puts/calls sized for the scenario. That's his Monday position. He says multiple times that the second the scenario changes, he changes positions. Hence, you must understand the whole mechanism and follow up daily in real time to make it work. Now, if you use the price range he defines as your targets but do not follow up every trading day, you will have the wrong results. Having said that, it would be interesting to see a quick recap of the past week (start position, evolution, end position, and results) at the beginning of those weekly videos.
Really good content. I think it would be instructive to go over a few scenarios where this goes off the rails. If Tesla jumps you lose some upside but the house doesn't burn down. If it goes way down you are forced to close out those puts which hopefully you have a way to resolve that. Even though you have those 'guard' puts at 370 that won't really help you even if it soothes the margin algorithms. I would be inclined to have a stop loss order in to sell shares below some level to cover the puts if needed. There are non taxable accounts that have no margin available : is this kind of strategy even allowed? I have to admit buying leaps feels like a way safer way to get a little leveraged action in a non margin account.
@@sidb9540 Likely won't get assigned until expiration but I have no experience with puts so I could be wrong. Worst case scenario is a bigger drop where he fails to get out of his positions in time. Selling short term puts feels like working around big machinery with loose clothing. I can live with covered calls and leaps but puts with a limited time frame are hard to swallow. It is good of Jo to explain his strategy and lay it all out. The thing with trading is sometimes you get burned.
I’m holding out to buy back in if they get back down to 341….or less…based on technical analysis and support levels. Your Alpha strategy on increasing the number of TSLA stock is far more nuanced I admit.
Not sure about the derivatives route. For the average person, I think making more money from your day job/ business is the best way to create more 'alpha' that you can then put into a simple DCA strategy. Zero stress. Becoming a part time trader of derivatives makes you glued to the quote screen 24/7 and is very stressful.
You are definitely right about this. It depends on how much you make in your job and how much money you have , and how inclined you are personality wise to engage in more involved strategies. I am contemplating creating an IRL community in Austin to make this a real job (discussing and meeting others) , I do think at 500+ shares there is an inflection point where it is hard to make more money working than trading Tesla
I'm all in on Tesla but also new to the market, can someone explain to me how it will get to the 10 thousand dollar per share price target when they're bound to do more stock splits along the way.
That it's not a split adjusted that value. So if a split were to happen, You need to multiply by the split ratio in order to get the unsplit value. For example, if the share price gets to $500 and Tesla announces a 5 to 1 split... Sure, price goes down to $100 per share. Restock split the share price would have had to go up 20x to get to $10,000 from $500. The post split equivalent of 20x on 100 is 2000 per share. Or 10,000/5 (the split multiplier).
Do not watch Tesla TH-camrs they are biased and blind. Tesla has a forward PE of over 200. But these Tesla bulls will tell you that's fine. Whe. It is way to overvalued. Don't bag hold Tesla stock. Wait till it goes to $280.
@ only downside risk no upside risk. We have a year end sell off and it won’t get above 435 until at least Jan 2 where most of the premium would have eroded and one can cover at a heafty profit if one needs to.
Great stuff Jo. Very educational. I’ve read that 80+% of market activity is driven by HFT owned by hedge funds which is to say a professional guy on the other side of the trade. So if you knew what the algorithms were after (I presume the algorithms are tools of that guy to amplify the effects of perceived trends so he can harvest the changes in direction?) is there any public observation of HFT activity that you look at as early warning? Or so that you can ride their induced waves?
Thanks Jo brillaint analysis - I really should look at options as a risk management tool, would be good to hear your thoughts on other tools that might be used to mitigate the short side like TSLA Short ETFs or similar
I am not a fan of short etfs, you need to be really good in technical timing and these things lose a lot in time value . My short options strategy put me on the right side of time decay (if nothing happens I win), so I just need to make sure to not get crushed by short term volatility. In the long term , I tend to win on this side of time decay
Well, now (January 2, 2025 - market closed) it’s at 379.28 USD … I last time bought around 144 … let’s see what happens next days … under all circumstances this (to me) is a bottom drawer share = buy, “forget about it” and look again in a couple of years … 🤷🏼♂️ Risky business with TESLA share also IMO being still Elon himself and his connection to the POTUS plus DOGE (and maybe dependency on a continued good relationship with POTUS) …
No but if it did I'd be buying it more the more it fell. The whole idea that the share price is still in the 400s right now is a gift from the gods... If it goes under that level again? Party time!! For that to happen mere 6 months before robo taxi service is revealed? Would be one of the shortest time periods between an investment and a 2 or 3x multiple on that investment like ever.
@jobhakdi Haha. I'm totally kidding. I have enough shares of tsla that if it hits 2500 by 2030 I'll be stepping away from full time employment. Hey, great analysis by the way. I appreciate you keeping is up to date.
If you really think TSLA can realistically (not to mention CONSERVATIVELY) grow at a 80% CAGR thru 2030 (and at double digits beyond) it makes no sense to try to take much risks. Instead just borrow some money and buy more shares.
If it drops below 400, I'm loading the truck again.
Can you share a link to your spreadsheet?
Almost 1000 of my shares are in my IRA, so no selling puts in there for me.
The wild swings the past few weeks has me sticking to only way out of the money covered calls.
Congrats to the IRA! Yeah just buying and holding with no leverage will also make you happy in the end imo
I've been selling out of money TSLA calls on my Roth IRA for small gains. Recently sold Jan 17 $700 calls for a couple dollars, now it's worth .20s cents. I'm pretty sure it will expire worthless. It's practically free money every months.
@@JHJones-nq5we I'm too chicken to go longer than 1 week at a time!
@@jobhakdi Yeah, going against the advice of the fund manager in 2019 by moving $15k from index funds into 60 TSLA shares has worked out well.🙂
I've moved it to a self directed account since then.
Just hit my tesla bag target. Im not brave enough to risk it. Love the channel
I know this is what we dont want to hear, but we need it.
Big fan of you Jo, I’m all in but follow a DCA strategy. Not brave enough for Alpha. Just buying and holding at any price under $2000
That’s not a bad strategy imo!
Will there be class action suits against FSD or the not so towering infernos.
Thanks for sharing your trading thoughts!
I W looked through your videos. Which one is the “reality engineering” video?
Sorry - it’s out on X, it comes out here on YT tmw 9 am CT!
Thanks for your video- super interesting strategy. How do you manage the ITM options you have sold-- if you let it go to expiration- they will geet exercised. Do you close them out before then and if so, when is ideal time? Happy New Near Jo!
I agree that Tesla will very likely do extremely well over the next 5 years as you say but to go all in like that is pure insanity. Crazy things happen that you can't predict...there's no need for greed.
Retailers constantly make the whales rich
How about this year 2025, rise next month or fall?
Anyone think 450 is too high ? Should hold or sell ?
I'm confused, You're selling a 480 put so that's $60 in the money, so if Tesla doesn't go over 480 you won't get the whole premium is that correct? If the stock goes up you'll make money on the short puts but not the whole premium unless it goes over the strike price, so what am I missing? And you're slightly in the money on the calls with a 410 if I remember correctly so if the stock doesn't move at all won't you Have to buy them back or be assigned?
Think of it like this: 480 short out + 410 short call. The call gives you a $10 premium , the short $2. So in total, you get $12 more than it’s worth. Then, as long as the stock stays between the two strike prices, any movement will just get offset between the two positions and the combined premium is yours. Only if the stock moves beyond either strike does the losses of one not get offset by the gains of the other (aka, then I am in trouble).
If the numbers on Thursday are ok, 420 should be solid. If the numbers are good, a new all time high is not very unlikely I would say....
I think the most likely outcome is that numbers come in between 505 and 515, which will not do much (maybe lead to a small run up). My main risk would be bad numbers - sub 500k, which could lead to a breakout to the downside
@jobhakdi yes indeed, but I don't think we will be below 500.... hopefully
Everything is priced in. You don’t go on crazy runs like that out of thin air
@JoseGarcia-q1f7t that's what Chanos thought too....4-5 years ago...happy new year
If I bought at 439. Would you sell now and buy lower?
Dollar cost average bro!!!!
No buy and hold or you will get screwed.
I never sell anything from my core position
@@jobhakdi but was 439 too high to get into Tesla ? Should I sell and wait for a lower entry price ?
Bro, you can’t buy in base on momentum or fomo. Should’ve loaded up in the 160s. Nothing changed fundamentally in the company at 160’s or 450’s. it moon base on hype and fomo, nothing fundamentally.
Awesome video .. thanks
This guy said it will go to $10,000 a share.. now it's PLUMMETING back to earth!
A very insightful video once again. As you know, I also try to generate alpha over a 100% $TSLA. Which is not easy. So far, I mostly sell OTM puts of 6 months or so, basically I do that on points where I think $TSLA at a resistance point. I am a little more sceptical about the share price and I think the bears will attack the 414 old ATH and I participate that they might succeed, I give that a 60% probability. So, I will wait a little longer to see what happens. Thx again and talk to you on X.
My bets are that it's popping up going into new year, but may miss numbers thursday by a tiny bit and follow the rest of the market down first few days of the new year, probably lots of people selling big winners with capital gains pushed to the next year -- tech is too high. I'm also mostly in tsla and have been, but liquidated increasingly to cash and played calls/puts during Nov/Dec to maximize..... banking on a dip with expected market slow and rocky january, with the big 2025 beginning a ramp after q4 earnings end of Jan. Can't wait to be all back in, but too high too fast needs a retest at some levels below 420..
I just buy and hold, I dont know anything about options
B&H is likely to be one of the best strategies
I bought in fomo, at $425. It was just going up then suddenly came down, and at the moment,it sits at $401. I'm debating selling some to buy some amd, and nividia. Possibly Uber.
Last 2 weeks been absolutely wrong !! Done watching
With your statement, you do not understand the point. The guy is trying to anticipate market moves for the coming 4 days. He defines a position on Monday based on his analysis. He chooses a bullish, bearish, or neutral scenario and engages in puts/calls sized for the scenario.
That's his Monday position. He says multiple times that the second the scenario changes, he changes positions. Hence, you must understand the whole mechanism and follow up daily in real time to make it work.
Now, if you use the price range he defines as your targets but do not follow up every trading day, you will have the wrong results.
Having said that, it would be interesting to see a quick recap of the past week (start position, evolution, end position, and results) at the beginning of those weekly videos.
Really good content. I think it would be instructive to go over a few scenarios where this goes off the rails. If Tesla jumps you lose some upside but the house doesn't burn down. If it goes way down you are forced to close out those puts which hopefully you have a way to resolve that. Even though you have those 'guard' puts at 370 that won't really help you even if it soothes the margin algorithms. I would be inclined to have a stop loss order in to sell shares below some level to cover the puts if needed. There are non taxable accounts that have no margin available : is this kind of strategy even allowed? I have to admit buying leaps feels like a way safer way to get a little leveraged action in a non margin account.
TSLA went to 401 today... he lost by the worst case scenerio
@@sidb9540 Likely won't get assigned until expiration but I have no experience with puts so I could be wrong. Worst case scenario is a bigger drop where he fails to get out of his positions in time. Selling short term puts feels like working around big machinery with loose clothing. I can live with covered calls and leaps but puts with a limited time frame are hard to swallow. It is good of Jo to explain his strategy and lay it all out. The thing with trading is sometimes you get burned.
I’m holding out to buy back in if they get back down to 341….or less…based on technical analysis and support levels. Your Alpha strategy on increasing the number of TSLA stock is far more nuanced I admit.
😱 $410. It can move that in an hour.
I play with thousands of options. H NO I’d ever play around those levels. You gots ballz. 😂
I really appreciate you taking the time to make these videos
Not sure about the derivatives route. For the average person, I think making more money from your day job/ business is the best way to create more 'alpha' that you can then put into a simple DCA strategy. Zero stress. Becoming a part time trader of derivatives makes you glued to the quote screen 24/7 and is very stressful.
You are definitely right about this. It depends on how much you make in your job and how much money you have , and how inclined you are personality wise to engage in more involved strategies. I am contemplating creating an IRL community in Austin to make this a real job (discussing and meeting others) , I do think at 500+ shares there is an inflection point where it is hard to make more money working than trading Tesla
We are close boys 407 rn I fucked up at getting at 420
The 2beta volatility in this stock is realizing itself this week. Just riding the rollercoaster.
I'm all in on Tesla but also new to the market, can someone explain to me how it will get to the 10 thousand dollar per share price target when they're bound to do more stock splits along the way.
That it's not a split adjusted that value. So if a split were to happen, You need to multiply by the split ratio in order to get the unsplit value. For example, if the share price gets to $500 and Tesla announces a 5 to 1 split... Sure, price goes down to $100 per share. Restock split the share price would have had to go up 20x to get to $10,000 from $500. The post split equivalent of 20x on 100 is 2000 per share. Or 10,000/5 (the split multiplier).
@DavidSaintloth ahh gotcha! Thank you sir.
Do not watch Tesla TH-camrs they are biased and blind. Tesla has a forward PE of over 200. But these Tesla bulls will tell you that's fine. Whe. It is way to overvalued. Don't bag hold Tesla stock. Wait till it goes to $280.
@deltaechomusicnh555 I bought my shares in the low 300s
He is blowing smoke up your ass . .nobody can make that call 😂
Sorry, but doubling your money in 6 months is too good to pass up. Taxes are not an issue in the 401k. Will re-evaluate in January.
Mine are in a self directed Roth account, that’s even better ;)
lets face it- you do not have a clue....after advising everyone to sell pre rally
God I hope it does. Lol. I wanna load up.
Sell 435 Jan 3 calls for 30 contracts
Too risky for me
@ only downside risk no upside risk. We have a year end sell off and it won’t get above 435 until at least Jan 2 where most of the premium would have eroded and one can cover at a heafty profit if one needs to.
Great stuff Jo. Very educational.
I’ve read that 80+% of market activity is driven by HFT owned by hedge funds which is to say a professional guy on the other side of the trade. So if you knew what the algorithms were after (I presume the algorithms are tools of that guy to amplify the effects of perceived trends so he can harvest the changes in direction?) is there any public observation of HFT activity that you look at as early warning? Or so that you can ride their induced waves?
“I don’t see a black swan coming…” by Definition are “black swans” unpredictable ?
380 is coming
Could be . Or not.
Thanks Jo brillaint analysis - I really should look at options as a risk management tool, would be good to hear your thoughts on other tools that might be used to mitigate the short side like TSLA Short ETFs or similar
I am not a fan of short etfs, you need to be really good in technical timing and these things lose a lot in time value . My short options strategy put me on the right side of time decay (if nothing happens I win), so I just need to make sure to not get crushed by short term volatility. In the long term , I tend to win on this side of time decay
Well, now (January 2, 2025 - market closed) it’s at 379.28 USD … I last time bought around 144 … let’s see what happens next days … under all circumstances this (to me) is a bottom drawer share = buy, “forget about it” and look again in a couple of years … 🤷🏼♂️
Risky business with TESLA share also IMO being still Elon himself and his connection to the POTUS plus DOGE (and maybe dependency on a continued good relationship with POTUS) …
Yes, yes it will. Probably back down to $100 soon after all Elon's political nonsense
I'm not buying more until Trump is inaugurated.
🎉😂yada yada yada . . Better nonsense than biden ever spewed. . . What a slithering idiot. . . Dumbocrats voted for that shlt
$100 soon. .well you better short it . .hahaha
@@ocjon1965 i am 1000 shares and not closing it till 270 the least .
Another dumb comment
No but if it did I'd be buying it more the more it fell. The whole idea that the share price is still in the 400s right now is a gift from the gods... If it goes under that level again? Party time!!
For that to happen mere 6 months before robo taxi service is revealed? Would be one of the shortest time periods between an investment and a 2 or 3x multiple on that investment like ever.
Te respondo en español , coincido 100 x 100 compañero !!! Saludos desde argentina.
Well, in 2020 it was a similar situation.
Im getting a home equity line of credit. Going all in!!! Hahhaa.
lol be cautious ! Always make sure you don’t need to pull out that money inbetween , this will remain volatile
@jobhakdi Haha. I'm totally kidding. I have enough shares of tsla that if it hits 2500 by 2030 I'll be stepping away from full time employment. Hey, great analysis by the way. I appreciate you keeping is up to date.
Yup going back down to 380s
Just keeping buying and don't worry about it. Tesla is a great investment for longer term.
❤❤❤
If you really think TSLA can realistically (not to mention CONSERVATIVELY) grow at a 80% CAGR thru 2030 (and at double digits beyond) it makes no sense to try to take much risks. Instead just borrow some money and buy more shares.
Borrowing money means leverage, and leverage means you have to watch out tactically because you can’t afford to be fully exposed in a major pullback
DOGE FEAR
Probably
a pull back would behealthy for the market, crypto inc....
This rollercoaster 🎢 is crazy.😅