So basically my job is to make a model to predict goals. In my model I should try to put many parameters to be more precise in predicting. (I think too many parameters isn't always good because it can be confusing). After we got the data we use Poisson. The better the model, the more precise the odds. Or I can use Soccer mystic and it can do the job for me.
Hi Peter I'm from South Africa been following your videos and I have gotten better at making accurate predictions I want to thank you first. But my question with using the poisson distribution is how come the percentage of 1 goal is higher for a team that scores 0.74 goals whereas the team that scores 1.80 goals has a lower percentage.... I'm slightly confused there
The more I'm using this formula the more I realise its more about predicting nil nil and correct scores but I can see from having the correct score, you can play different markets
This is because the calculation describes the discrete value of each goal, not the cumulative. You can add them together to work out the cumulative or use that function within the formula in Excel.
Curiously the markets are a bit more 'wobbly' in recent years, less certain about what the price should be. But that fact aside, don't forget you can create the market on the exchange, as I mentioned in the video.
Hi Peter. Is the Zero inflated model a better choice than this poisson model you are showing in the video? If not, which model do you recommend? Best regards Andreas
Yes, it’s better. There are so many variations on what to do and how that you have quite a wide choice. But don’t forget that the inputs to these models are critically important as well.
I'm giving you insight as to how the odds are created so you can use that how you wish. You can can do as little or as much research and prep as you feel appropriate. But I price each match I bet or trade on.
Hi sir. I like to play the overs Market (+2.5) I typically look at the last 5 games for both teams (home/away form) and look at the goals scored by both. It has served me well, so far. I'm always looking for ways to improve my system. Do you think last 5 is enough. Or maybe I should go to 10? (Excluding friendly games) Thank you.
Hello, Mr. Peter, although I repeated the video several times to understand how to do it... I couldn't..Can you put together a new demo video from scratch...Thank you very much
Can I start using last seasons data? Or should I just wait for the first 6 games of this season? Also how do I calculate the poisson and the draw together? is there an equation I've missed in the video? Thanks again
So basically my job is to make a model to predict goals. In my model I should try to put many parameters to be more precise in predicting. (I think too many parameters isn't always good because it can be confusing). After we got the data we use Poisson. The better the model, the more precise the odds. Or I can use Soccer mystic and it can do the job for me.
The best help, would be to show us which bet you would place after gather all that data.
I'm trying to show you here how to do it yourself and make your own judgement on value and what bet you would place.
Poisson will understate the draw, especially a goalless draw. An adjusted Poisson (e.g. zero-inflated) can help to be more accurate
I was going to talk about ZIP in the video, but I think alternatives can be discussed in another video.
Hi Peter I'm from South Africa been following your videos and I have gotten better at making accurate predictions I want to thank you first. But my question with using the poisson distribution is how come the percentage of 1 goal is higher for a team that scores 0.74 goals whereas the team that scores 1.80 goals has a lower percentage.... I'm slightly confused there
The more I'm using this formula the more I realise its more about predicting nil nil and correct scores but I can see from having the correct score, you can play different markets
This is because the calculation describes the discrete value of each goal, not the cumulative. You can add them together to work out the cumulative or use that function within the formula in Excel.
How do you get the value though. The market is very efficient and all this data is factored in to the SP isnt it?
Curiously the markets are a bit more 'wobbly' in recent years, less certain about what the price should be.
But that fact aside, don't forget you can create the market on the exchange, as I mentioned in the video.
Hi Peter. Is the Zero inflated model a better choice than this poisson model you are showing in the video? If not, which model do you recommend?
Best regards
Andreas
Yes, it’s better. There are so many variations on what to do and how that you have quite a wide choice.
But don’t forget that the inputs to these models are critically important as well.
Helpful video . On macbook which trading app suitable to trade . Thanks
I use a Mac Book and either Parallels or a VPS to run Bet Angel on.
most stats website got all this percentage possibilities and the rest
do you really think every trader should go trough this to be successful trader?
I'm giving you insight as to how the odds are created so you can use that how you wish. You can can do as little or as much research and prep as you feel appropriate. But I price each match I bet or trade on.
Hi sir.
I like to play the overs Market (+2.5)
I typically look at the last 5 games for both teams (home/away form) and look at the goals scored by both.
It has served me well, so far.
I'm always looking for ways to improve my system.
Do you think last 5 is enough. Or maybe I should go to 10? (Excluding friendly games)
Thank you.
What you typically need is a blend of the two. Judging who those games were against and weighting to that is more important than just numbers.
Hello, Mr. Peter, although I repeated the video several times to understand how to do it... I couldn't..Can you put together a new demo video from scratch...Thank you very much
Maybe when the new season starts as we will have features in Bet Angel then to help you.
Can I start using last seasons data? Or should I just wait for the first 6 games of this season? Also how do I calculate the poisson and the draw together? is there an equation I've missed in the video?
Thanks again
Last season's data will give you a clue to relative ability. But doesn't include the summer signings, so you would need to adjust to account for that.
Hi sire! Can your share with spreadsheet from 12.37 time on video
You can find a number and more helpful advice here: -
forum.betangel.com/viewforum.php?f=6
The problem is, the bookies have access to all this data too, and much more. So what's the advantage?
On a betting exchange you can be the bookmaker, so you can make the odds.
but this is all done by experts ,why would we do this when all that information is in Betfair allready
So you can understand how it was reached and either exploit errors, new information or anticipate it.
If only my maths teacher used this method to teach me in elementary school 😅
Maybe a different career path would have followed.
@@betangeltv for sure 😅