The Worst Fielder Of All Time?
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- เผยแพร่เมื่อ 8 มิ.ย. 2024
- Dante Bichette's 1999 season is the stuff of legend. He was a good hitter in a great ballpark - and yet wound up with a negative WAR for his efforts that season.
Was Bichette's defense in left field really that bad?
More here: baseballreplayjournal.substac...
Games featured in this video:
7/30/1999 Giants at Rockies
4/4/1999 Rockies at Padres
4/9/1999 Rockies at Dodgers
4/17/1999 Braves at Rockies
4/19/1999 Expos at Rockies
6/9/1999 Mariners at Rockies
7/28/1999 Rockies at Padres
7/6/1999 Dodgers at Rockies
7/31/1999 Rockies at Cardinals
9/13/1999 Mets at Rockies
6/17/2000 Reds at Padres
#baseball #mlb #baseballhistory - กีฬา
Great video. Hopefully someday someone will do a full video analysis of Derek Jeter’s defense to help explain the difference between his defensive statistics and the perception of his defense.
Coming up soon
The Rockies started the season with 34-year-old Darryl Hamilton in CF, which should be a giant red flag regardless of how good he might have been earlier in his career. At the end of July he was sent to the Mets; part of the return was Brian McRae. After less than two weeks, McRae was off to Toronto and the job was shared by Jeff Barry and Edgard Clemente the rest of the way.
Meanwhile, right field was of course manned by 7-time Gold Glove winner Larry Walker. You would think that your centerfielder would need to help left field more than right field in this situation if you want to optimize your defense.
I forgot that Brian McRae was still playing in 1999. Wow.
I find these type of videos very interesting. I'm not a stat geek, not going to claim to be but it is weird how Retrosheet, a place that is known for collecting stat data can be so wrong with their pbp data and location. There is actual video of these games from 1999.. in fact, a stat site like these should have access to all the video. I know MLB has it in archives. This isn't a 1960s comparison is all. Do they really count singles through the infield as part of Bichette's metric? That's weird.. also, one thing that you didn't mention is that Coors field has a large outfield, with huge gaps. This is to limit HRs obviously but if you don't have good outfielders, it will be a even worse disaster.. that's part why I think Bichette's numbers don't look so bad the next year.
Yeah - the Retrosheet errors are huge and are really telling. My guess is that there are more if anybody bothers to look.
I've got no idea if the singles up the middle are counted or not. Sean Smith has never explained how Rfield and dWAR is calculated for these seasons, other than assuring people that he has a complicated system. I know that estimation is part of the system based on what is written on his website (baseballprojection.com).
You're right about the large outfield as well. That's one reason why I really don't understand why they would play Bichette shallow. The Rockies should have focused on getting a fast center fielder instead of getting another power hitter.
Retrosheet's data from seasons after 1983 comes from a variety of sources, all of varying quality. The basic stats get checked (all the counting stats for offense and pitching on a day-by-day basis) but the put-outs (fielding credits) for all positions are not verified because of the countless discrepancies in that category, regardless of the season. The 1999 season is one of the most suspect, however, due to the data source's history. If you find errors, please submit them to Retrosheet directly and they will correct everything reported.
Enjoyed the video. Retrosheet is subjective on the field location of an outfield hit, but is very accurate on who touches the ball first to start a play. For example, if the leftfielder first touches the single in leftfield or left centerfield the leftfielder gets credit for a Fplay7 as the first fielder of the baseball. Of course, we must beware of discrepancies. However; keep in mind, the play by play data at baseball reference"?" may have been incorrectly entered as well or was using subjective location of the baseball versus registering the play by who first fielded the baseball.
Retrosheet is not as accurate as you think. I've demonstrated numerous errors in its database here, including one that is glaring.
I also didn't mention this, but there's at least one at bat during these games where the pitch count in the database is incorrect - the person keeping score missed a ball.
I suspect that there wasn't much of an emphasis on verifying the results back in 1999, or for any of the Project Scoresheet years.
@@baseballreplayjournal Of course, if the AL and NL weren't so careless and destroyed so many official scoresheets, we'd have much better data.
Good video. To hammer home your point on how the corner OF can be much better with a solid CF, check out the 2003 season of the Cardinals. There was a long stretch where Pujols was ordered to not throw the ball, because of an elbow injury. Every time the ball was hit to left, Jim Edmonds would run to left field to catch an underhanded toss from Pujols. Well, after a while Edmonds just realized it was sometimes easier for him to catch anything he could possibly get to in order to avoid the transfer in the first place. And shockingly, I think there was maybe only 1 or 2 times where the opposition took advantage of the situation. Edmonds truly was one of the smartes center fielders ever, because he was sprinting to left field many times before the ball was even hit.
I'm going to have to look into that! Sounds fascinating.
One of the worst outfielders in Mets history was Pepe Mangual. Mets announcer Ralph Kiner said it best, "Pepe Mangual will drop everything he can get to".
One of my “favorite” Rfield values is for Manny Mota for seasons 1975 and 1976 where as a 37/38 year old in under 50 total innings he was able to receive a +4 for his LF work. If recall correctly his S-O-M LF rating for those years was a “4”. Sure back then we would pinch-hit his card but never use as a defensive replacement upgrade.
Ha! Yeah, that's a ridiculous rating - and really should be enough to call the entire stat in question.
@@baseballreplayjournal The WAR folks really need to separate the kinda-accurate batting values from the guesstimate defense values.
We loved watching Dante in his prime, but one of our friends had a favorite chant she deployed in '99: "Dante, Honey, the ball is over there."
Maybe we were a bit harsh, and in retrospect, we didn't really know how bad his knee was.
Love the video. Looking forward to more vids 🧡🔥
Thanks!
Someone needs to adjust their tracking on the braves footage lol. This video and Griffey’s impact on bichettes defense really make you appreciate how valuable him and other cf with great range and defense are to teams. That is something that cannot be quantified in stats and I really don’t think ever will be and can just be seen by watching the games.
Absolutely right.
I gained a lot of appreciation for good defense after watching these plays. There's no question that Bichette was immobile out there, and he did make a big mistake when he threw behind the runner. However, he had a good arm, and I feel like he was maligned for things that weren't entirely his fault.
And it really stinks that the tracking wasn't better on that Braves game. I suspect that the static might have come from the original broadcast, though. I wonder if the person recording it wasn't vacuuming at the same time.
@@baseballreplayjournal Yeah kids today will never know the joys of household appliances messing with reception or knowing a thunderstorm was coming by the static. As much as modern broadcasts can annoy us I’ll take the high definition and multiple angles over the good old days.
Completely agree. The problem the stat geeks have is that they assume any contrarions are like Wins/Batting Average guys from 20 years ago. So they assume they're all-knowing and don't realize that if Bichette was so awful at fielding that it negated his offense (and then some) that either 1. He wouldn't have been playing LF. And 2. The manager would've been fired for continuing to run him out there. Pitchers & Fans would have very clear evidence that he's hurting the team.
I enjoyed this video although I am ignorant of WAR and other modern stats. I have a few observations.
At the outset, I will admit that I remembered little about Bichette coming into this video. As a Phillies fan, my team didn’t face Colorado often. Also, I didn’t follow MLB for several after the 1994 strike.
First, the proverbial “elephant in the room” is that Bichette was chubbier than I knew. Not sure if he always played so heavy or if his knee injury limited his workouts. Aside from Kirby Puckett, not many chubby outfielders hold their own.
Second, you cited a poor stat season for Gary Mathews, Sr. with the Cubs. Phillies fans had no complaints about his defense before the trade to the Cubs. We were used to worse defense from chubby Greg Luzinski and Lonnie “Skates” Smith in LF before Mathews took over LF. Also, much like Griffey, centerfielder
Garry Maddox covered much of the
Phillies outfield back then.
You mean other than me?
First thing any Yankee fan thinks is, was Jeter really so bad, or was it something else about the team?
Working on a video on this subject as we speak. Stay tuned! :-D
There seems to be three major components of fielding for outfielders: range, errors and arm. One of the worst outfielders that I personally saw was Greg Luzinski. One year he made no errrors. Perfect outfield fielding percentage but he was a statue out there. His arm was average on a good day. You can't make an error on a ball you don't reach. So sorry Greg, you get my vote. He was much better at first base, and even better ultimately as a full-time DH.
As you said, fielding data is pretty reliable from 2003 on. But prior to 2003, the estimates can lead to some big question marks. Was Dave Winfield really as bad as WAR says he was? What about Dave Parker? Did Mike Schmidt make Larry Bowa looks less impressive?
What Sean Smith did to estimate hit location when the Retrosheet data for a particular hit was unclear was he looked at all the outs the batter in that situation made during his entire career. He then assigned blame to the hit in question on a percentage basis. If the batter had made 10% of his career out to shortstop, then the shortstop in that situation got 10% of the blame for the hit.
"Total Zone Rating" can lead to some real head-scratchers. Such as was Jay Johnstone really the best fielding right fielder in all of major league baseball in 1976? Better than Dwight Evans, Dave Parker, Dave Winfield, Al Cowens and Reggie Smith? For anyone who thinks JJ really was #1, I not only have a stunning bridge in Brooklyn for sale but wait until you see incredible deals I can get you for the oil fields on Daedalia Planum.
In Smith's defense, what he came up with is the best we've got for better fielding metrics than fielding average, range, etc. He really should be applauded for coming up with such a sophisticated approach. But when every hit is going to be blamed on a fielder, that simply leads to more questions. Was the reason a ball fell into RF in front of Winfield really his fault or because the Padres coaches had him play deep because of his strong arm? Was it really the fault of Jerry Royster if a ball rocketed over his head and down the LF line? Or because his manager pulled the infield in (something that teams which frequently lose might do)?
I also would have liked to have seen 2003 numbers using TZR to compare against Baseball Info Solutions Defensive Runs Saved, which is what BBref uses for seasons since 2003. Being able to compare the two systems for the same season could help validate TZR or at least enable an analysis that could come up with a "margin for error" (no pun intended).
There's a very good article on SABR's website, "Measuring Defense: Entering the Zones of Fielding Statistics," that explains the various attempts at valuing defense.
U have to thrown in: Rockies horrible pitching too. What was the Rockies Strike out rate for their staff? I know this doesn't really mean anything, since they're off of %, but Less K's more flyouts.
This is a good point, actually.
They had 6.5 strikeouts per 9 innings against 4.6 walks. The National League average was 6.7 Ks per 9 and 3.7 walks. They were basically right about average in terms of strikeouts, but had awful control.
You can see this in the boxscores, by the way. The Rockies were walking guys left and right, and it really contributed to their problems.
We don't usually analyze things to this level, but the truth is that the Rockies pitchers probably had to throw more pitches over the plate and in the zone after shooting themselves in the feet with all those walks. Add on the poor fielding and it's just a recipe for disaster.
If you check out those clips in the home game against the Dodgers, you can tell that the Dodgers bats were getting a lot of baseball. A good percentage of that has to be on the pitcher.
16:51 Leftfielder first to field the baseball 1999
Leftfielder BABIP (b1+b2+b3)/(b1+b2+b3+fpo7)
No inside the park homers fielded by leftfield in 1999 NL
League average .546
Dante Bichette .602
The subjective, how many singles or even doubles got through the leftside of the infield that gave the FPLAY7 stat as first fielder.
Do baseball sims that use DIP's break it down by can the hit get through the infield first in several cases?
Yes, defense matters, but can get very subjective and dealing with some statistical minutiae.
Fplay first by position in a game both leagues rounded 1969-1992
Fplay is a ball in play fielded by a fielder including bunts, beginning of play error on play, hit, and/or etc.
Rounded up
Fplays per game 54
Fplay1 - 3
Fplay2 - 1
Fplay3 - 4
Fplay4 - 7
Fplay5 - 6
Fplay6 - 8
Fplay7 - 8
Fplay8 - 9
Fplay9 - 8
Take out bunts and a pitcher fielding plays per game drops by 1 to Fplay1 - 2 rounded up
Note the number of plays to the right side infield to left side infield 14 - 11 plays
Note - due to a lot of hits to the outfield Fplays to outfield 25/54 = 46% of all Fplays.
I hope everyone finds this interesting.
FPLAY hits per game 14
14/54 Fplay total are 26% of first fielder of hits.
Fplay - 14 hits
Some small rounding
Fplay1 - .20
Fplay2 - .02
Fplay3 - .20
Fplay4 - .40
Fplay5 - .05
Fplay6 - .06
Fplay7 - 5.00
Fplay8 - 4.00
Fplay9 - 4.00
Shortstops in NL field a few extra hits than in the AL, thus the difference in hits fielded in left.
AL
Fplay6 - .05
Fplay7 - 5.00
NL
Fplay6 - .07
Fplay7 - 4.00
The problem with looking at stuff like BABIP against certain defensive players is your sample size.
Bichette had 260 chances or so in all of 1999. He had a grand total of 2 chances in that 2000 Reds game, and had only 2 chances in that Padres - Rockies opening day game (the third one listed on Retrosheet was fielded by the center fielder). You're talking about making a distinction so minute that you're not able to tell the statistical signal from all the noise.
Fortunately, we're a lot better at doing this nowadays with all the fX stats and all that stuff. When you try to go back and estimate this, you're dealing with inaccurate raw data as well as assumptions that are not necessarily correct.
What I really wish is that Sean Smith would tell us exactly how he calculated TZR for the 1953-2003 seasons. if we knew how it was calculated, we could see what assumptions he used - and we could then test them against what actual video survives from that era (and the truth is that there are a lot of games out there). When the stat is proprietary and a black box, however, there is unfortunately nothing we can really do about it. Our discussions turn into throwing complicated statistics that we don't fully understand at each other.
@baseballreplayjournal Actually Bichette had 239 fielded flyouts, but also fielded 361 hits for 600 touches. Near 70% of all outfielder fielding errors are on throws after fielding hits or getting fielding assist after fielding hits. In the Bichette case he had fa7 - 15 and fe7 - 11. Remember, comparing baseball reference play by play is using outfeld location in some or many cases that is different than registering who first fields or touches a basebsll on a given play in the field. A first play registered in the field is always on a batted ball this excludes K's, BB's, pick offs, wild pitches, and etc.
What isn't fair about the old method of getting fielding percentage for the outfield is the problem with so many outfield errors and outfield assist, are included with figuring it off the given hit chances were a throw was attempted and the off the hit play isn't included as a registered play chance in the traditional sense.
Regarding BABIP in the case of Bichette or any fielder. No retrosheet play recording line is going to say Bichette should have prevented that hit or that hit is on the centerfielder, that is just a cat chasing his tail. But, we can get a average for fielded hits versus fielding put outs. Does that tell us much, well some. Retrosheet is very accurate according to what is acceptable levels in most cases 95-99%. Your point about the weakness of his 3b and SS shows in Bichette fielding 361 hits, but again how to with the use of recorded data isn't going to give a very good way to discern the fault of a given play beyond just counting stats.
Does retrosheet have enough data for all these single formulated numbers for fielding, I'm skeptical. It's like where is the beef. Who fields a ball first is a counting stat like counting homers and etc. they're there. However: ball location in the outfield is a very subjective stat.
Please provide the date of the game video that had the wrong fielder designated in the baseball reference play by play. If available the inning of the play by play. I can actually extract the data from retrosheet to see if this was an actual text input error by baseball reference or a retrosheet error.
Note: If Bichette fa and fe numbers are off a bit that his data after being first fielder, he may have fa and fe as the second or third or etc. fielder.
That was the saddest "highlight reel" I've ever seen.
I do feel kind of bad for Bichette, who was clearly having a hard time running. But, yeah, this gives you a good idea of what he was like.
Moral of the story. Everyone plays worse when they play for the Rockies.