This week, I wanted to look at the ongoing peace efforts between Armenia and Azerbaijan. While this hasn't been in the international news lately, there's a lot of hope that the sides can reach an agreement. But what do you think? Is a final settlement really possible? Or will Azerbaijan back out? Aliyev already talking about an interim deal rather than a final agreement. And what about opposition in Armenia and amongst the diaspora? How do they feel about an agreement, and about Pashinyan? Finally, will any settlement last? As always, I look forward to your thoughts and comments below.
Considering Armenia bought half a bilion dollars of drones and missiles from Iran, I sincerely doubt it. Its France and Iran that supplies Armenia and Serbia and Israel that supplies Azerbaijan. I think they are gearing up for round 3.
Armenia didn’t buy half a billion of Iranian weapons that is false news. The article even claimed that Iran was going to open up military bases in Armenia. Anyone with a gram of knowledge can see that it is disinformation as the article surfaced on the final day of US-Armenian military exercises and after the US pledged millions in support to Armenia.
Thanks for having Azerbaycan problem sir. How about you think for Can The Azerbaycan join The Economic corridor project? i curiously wait your video sir.
Once again an interesting video James. However, regime change in Armenia may spark another conflict again. I think Russia will be one of the most important players in the region once the conflict in Ukraine ends
Prof if I'm not mistaken, Baku still has an open offer for Nagorno-Karabakh residents to return with Azeri citizenship. A key difference between this conflict and that other one. You know which one. Perhaps you can do a video on international law regarding refugees and how they apply in these conflicts.
Peace was talked about, and it was almost reached with a land swap Deal with US mediation in 2001, but other powers had other ideas. In the period since then, Armenia was unwilling to return the land without compensation in the enshrining of armenian rights which Azerbaijan wasn’t willing to accept which is why we got war.
@@strpet27 Armenia itself was inside the borders of Azerbaijani atabegates, and later khanates, which were annexed by Russia with the treaty of Turkmenchay. When suddenly an outsider force takes over your land and divides it as they like, you get a little bit mad. That's what's happened with Azerbaijan.
@@ultrahigher6739 Who did Russia annex them from? The answer is Iran as Azerbaijan didn’t exist as a country 200 years ago. And if the ethnic composition of the region 200 years ago should somehow decide the modern day borders, we might as well go back 1000 years or more before the turks moved into the caucasus.
@@strpet27 go back 70 years to decide on borders and then suddenly Crimean Tatars own Crimea and Russia has no claim on it, there are as much Azerbaijani as Armenians in Yerevan. if Azerbaijan takes over Karabakh, I only wish for Artsakhians safe return to Armenia.
The problem is that people studying this topic from the outside see this conflict as a territorial dispute, while it is about the right of people to self-determination, as was the case with Kosovo, Taiwan and Palestine.
Thanks. The problem is that you are mixing up several different forms of self-determination - a very common mistake. Under international law, the concept has two different meanings. First there is what we call external self-determination. This applies in overseas colonial contexts and allows for territories to become independent. This is relevant for Palestine. In cases of established states, we have what’s called internal self-determination. This is understood as meaningful self-rule within an established state. It doesn’t mean a right to independence, as many often mistakenly believe. This applies to secessionist conflicts. Taiwan is neither. It is a unique case in international relations based on a dispute over who should have the right to be recognised as the legitimate government of China. It isn’t a secessionist issue (although it has increasingly moved in that way). Kosovo is a separate issue too in that an exception was made that went against established international principles. This has caused a lot of international division and this is why Kosovo is still not a UN member 15 years are unilaterally declaring independence. So, while you would argue that Nagorbo-Karabakh is a self-determination dispute and not a territorial one, presumably arguing that it should have a right to independence or union with Armenia, international law would see it rather differently. It was about self-rule within Azerbaijan. When looking at these sorts of issues, it is important to be precise. Unfortunately, people often use the term self-determination without realising the two distinct forms that have emerged under international law.
You are totally right. It's a conflict between Artsakh-USSR, which became an Armenia-Azerbaijan conflict. According to the constitution of the USSR, in case of a union republic voting on leaving the Soviet Union, autonomous republics, autonomous oblasts and autonomous okrugs had the right, by means of a referendum, to independently resolve whether they will stay in the USSR or leave with the seceding union republic, as well as to raise the issue of their state-legal status.
@@user-yb4xo2vj9m I am sure their justification is that Azerbaijan has oil & gas and the British Petroleum (BP) is heavily invested in the Caspian energy exploration, transit and infrastructure. This has become even more important these days as a result of Russian invasion of Ukraine which is aided by the entire Western World, aka NATO lead by the United States, by sanctioning Russian oil & gas exports to energy-hungry Europe and increasing Azerbaijani oil & gas export to Europe. The West siding with the Armenians on people's right to self-determination in this case, like they did with Kosovo violating Serbia's territorial integrity, would have been nothing short of going against Western energy interests in the region. After all, to them securing the energy needs of Europe by supporting the dictatorship of Azerbaijan was much more important than recognizing the right of the indigenous Armenians to this piece of land on which they had lived since time immemorial.
Professor please also do a video on recent iran elections in which a reformist leader was the winner. What are implications of this election and will it lead to peace from recent conflicts happening due to iran vs israel/usa
Thanks a lot. Good suggestion. I will certainly be keeping an eye on the situation. I’m just not sure we’ve seen anything monumental yet. Foreign policy decision making in Iran is a complex business, also involving the Supreme Leader. Let’s give it a little time and see where it seems to be going. (As you may remember, I did a video last year on Iranian-Israeli relations.)
Great video. Glad to see you have the facts correct on Azerbaijans tyrant dictatorship and how Armenians were stripped of their land they lived on for centuries.
In hindsight it's incredible that Karabakh held out as long as it did. It was a relic of an entirely different geopolitical environment where newly independent, incredibly weak states were trying to find their place on the world stage. But with the rise and entrenchment of Erdogan coupled with the desire for Azeri natural gas & LNG meant that Karabakhi autonomy was just no longer sustainable as Baku kept arming itself, thereby further strengthening its military posture vis-a-vis Stepanakert.
It’s incredible when you look at it in its entire context. Artsakh/Karabakh has been inhabited predominantly by Armenians for roughly 2,700 years, despite being conquered by countless foreign empires. This nearly three millennia of Armenian settlement only ended in 2023.
Thanks. Great point. In retrospect, a military solution became inevitable as Azerbaijan used its energy wealth to build up its military. I do wonder if Armenia will at some point look back at some point and wonder if it overplayed its hand and should have taken a solution when it was in the stronger position. The question is what happens now.
@@g1u2y345 Armenians in Karabakh and Armenia itself were brought in by Russia from Turkey and Iran. The churches in the area are not Armenian but Albanian, Also, historical center of Erevan, the capital of Armenia, is Azerbaijani.
As an Azeri I wants to say thanks for Pashiniyan because he is the only armenian PM which really wants to bring peace for us. Former PMs like Sarkisyan and Kocharyan they always try to provocate us.
What are the chances a permanent peace deal will be made? It seems like the "president" of Azerbaijan doesn't really want peace and wants to take sovereign un recognized Armenian land
no question in the comments? One always hopes for peace. Listening to this gives me the feeling that Armenia is negotiating in good faith, I don't get that same confidence from Azerbaijan. feelings however are only useful about half the time. Peace 🕊🕊🕊
Thanks, Todd. Sorry. It's coming. This was a special early preview for the members. (I want you to get a first view when I can from now on.) I am just working on it! :-)
Armenia has acted in good faith unlike Azerbaijan which continues to occupy 200 square kilometers of Armenian land, holds Armenian pows and political prisoners and constantly makes provocative statements regarding Armenia’s sovereign right to buy weapons. Meanwhile they spend billions on pakistani jets and israeli drones
Warum haben Sie diesen Eindruck? Immerhin hat Aserbaijan, den Krieg gewonnen. Warum werden von Aserbaijan Konzessionen erwartet? Wenn es nicht bald eine Friedensvereinbarung geben sollte, gehe ich von einem weiteren Krieg aus. Wenn ich Aserbaijan wäre, w+rde ich diesen krieg führen solange die Russen mit der Ukraine beschäftigt sind! Außerdem hat sich Armenien von Rußland gelöst und geht mit dem Westen, deshalb wird Rußland Armenien nicht unterstützen
I remember when the war over Nagorno-Karabakh broke out, as the old USS was disintegrating. At the time, the Armenians were able to achieve the conquest of the area due to better organization, equipment, and experience (many Armenian personnel having been veterans of the USSR's invasion of Afghanistan). All these years later, it's been impressive how Azerbaijan has been able to train and equip a force large enough to achieve its strategic objective.
@@KonradAdenauerJr The Turkish drones really hurt the Armenian military they had no answer for it but look at Russia they basically neutralized the Turkish drones you don't hear of them anymore on the Ukrainian battlefield.
@@KonradAdenauerJr this is simple called oil momey, azerbaijan has been dictator ship passing throne 2 generations from dad to son, even the very last presidential election ilham aliev was introduced as the winner 1 day before the elections took place😂😂 this is similar to sadams or libyas ruller’s story. Armenia only defended its people, this areas were never Azerbajani, even during USSR Nagorni Kharabagh had its Autonomy,
@@mkryann1587 Even if you criticize Azerbaijan's leadership, it doesn't justify Armenia's occupation of Azerbaijani territories. The facts remain: Karabakh is internationally recognized as part of Azerbaijan, and Armenia's actions violated international law and numerous UN resolutions. Deflecting to internal politics doesn't change these facts.
@@tensx373 Armenia did not occopy anything, you cannot ocopy land from azerbaijan that azerbaijan never had, even during USSR Nagorno Karanagh had Autonomy, this are Armenian Lands and will always be you are the ocupant of Nagorno Kharabagh, Occupant of Naxijevan, and partial Armenian Lands you are occupant
Well, those so called "autonomous lands" were still internarionally recognized integral part of Azerbaijan, similar to Abkhazia and Osetia autonomous lands are integral part of Georgia. Armenian population left Karabakh voluntarily. I do not think they will ever return back to Karabakh. However if such return ever happens, then Armenia must be ready to accept the return of Azeri population forceably evicted from their historical lands back in eighties.
In my opinion, Azerbaijan is acting and will continue to act in bad faith. You can really see it in the comments here, say one thing (peace, intl law, regional friendship, cites 4 UN resolutions), do another (ignore irredentist claims or claims of their state media, justify AZ occupations of AM territory w prior Armenian occupation of NK, no self reflection/complete righteousness of their position (hypernationalistic), and complete gaslighting and 'talking down' to Armenians). I'm from Southeast Asia and I see this all the time in our region. It's only natural since the power imbalance is so great with the big China next door, but in my opinion Armenians, just like ASEAN, only stands to lose to their bigger neighbors, but I understand Pashinyan kind of has no choice unlike us. Sad. To my point, not to say Armenia hasn't itself been egregious in the past (i.e. their own pseudo-religious hypernationalism post 1st Karabakh War), but for all the talk of the four UN resolutions in favor of AZ and territorial integrity, AZ is taking full advantage of their victory to achieve borderline egregious demands from AM. Most obvious is the 73 sq km AZ occupies beyond the intl border, at some points 7+ km into Armenia that cannot be justified with "ambiguous" Soviet-era borders. The AZ anger over the Zangezur corridor seems exaggerated by state media as they have no issue accessing Nakhchivan from Iran, and they broke their tentative agreement to not cut off access via the Lachin corridor to NKR, let alone completely dismantle it, which the ARM argue voids the corridor agreement. The corridor would also cut the ARM border with Iran which would be s significant economic loss. In my view, what has Armenia gained so far? They've withdrawn from parts of the disputed border in Tavush in good faith, only for Azerbaijan to delay their own withdrawal from parts that were supposed to go to Armenia. They've returned it seems most AZ POWs vs AZ continually keeping (and based on leaked videos) torturing AM POWs. They've ceased claiming NK in any capacity and have dissolved the 'Artsakh' polity and have even given landmine maps among other concessions I may have forgotten post-2020 war. After that, AZ troops continue to open fire on AM positions, or when AM fires first its because AZ troops are trying to set up new positions further West based on maps I've seen. I see no reason to believe AZ media claims that ARM opens fire in aggression or is "planning another war". The Armenian military is impotent, and the nation is weak. It it may be AZ preparing the public for war again and false flagging. ARM is doing all this for at best a tentative peace. The most I see them gaining is maaaaybe normalization with Turkey but their govt seems to have more fun continually teasing it. Of course AZ can respond that it is justified after the 30 year occupation of NK, but the worst part is that they have elevated irredentist claims on Armenia proper, and are now espousing taking the southern portion of Armenia if the Zangezur/Syunik corridor to Nakhichevan is not opened. That makes no sense. They have also suggested they would take parts of Armenia to have a border on Lake Sevan.
Thanks. (I wrote a reply but your post was then missing. I was really worried that TH-cam had deleted it. Sadly, it happens. The attempt to weed out abuse sometimes goes too far.) I really appreciate the long and well considered reply. I agree. I do worry that Azerbaijan is not prepared to reach a deal as it has other plans. This seems to be a genuine fear amongst many observers and even policy makers. The fact that Azerbaijani media is perpetuating division and hatred is a very worrying sign. It doesn’t give much reason for hope that things are really and truly changing.
@@JamesKerLindsay My apologies the missing reply was my fault. I deleted my first response probably mid-way as you responded because I really dislike the open-endedness of (edited) responses and I wanted to add to my OP. I really agree. In regards to the conflict, have to heard of Jirair Libaridian and his white paper on Armenia's mistakes and loss? To add to that, I understand that some Turkish and Azerbaijanis may see my OP comment and perceive me to be completely biased and apathetic to what Azerbaijanis went through. I do not intend that, rather the pendulum has swung and I cannot help but list what egregious behavior is currently ongoing/projected and what I fear will be crimes of the future. To them I say I am not oblivious to events prior to 2020. The ethnic cleansing of the 7 districts, the failed peace attempts of 1998-2002 that were stopped by the AM diasporan/ultranationalist/terror groups ARF and Karabakhi-origin presidents that wanted no compromise and dragged the more "neutral" Armenian mainland public into Karabakhi absolutism, the religious nationalism i.e. "against all odds we won, we are a blessed people", the culmination of that with Pashinyan breaking all prior "status quo"/tentative peace with "Artsakh is Azerbaijan!", the dropping of a grenade from a drone on AZ soldiers that caused the September dissolution of NKR.
Time will tell, Aliyev probably won't risk inciting any larger scale conflict with Armenia over Syunik or elsewhere with the COP 29 summit coming up, Azerbaijan has been building up its PR however it can. That being said, alot of people also thought that Putin wouldn't attack Ukraine, and look how that turned out.
you are biased and apathetic,and that’s ok,you don’t have to pretend)You probably live in the west,where armenian diaspora not only dictates the narrative to the government via pocket senators(menendez,pallone etc.),but are also your neighbours,friends,people you know,even celebrities you heard of. Azerbaijanis virtually don’t exists anywhere in the west,that’s why there are 11 millions of us in Azerbaijan,while there are more armenians in California than in Armenia. However,regardless of the reasons for your objective unawareness in those matters,I have to argue with the points you’ve made,just because I am azerbaijani and pro-justice,you are proarmenian,and I presume justice in your understanding could only be applied to the people you know vs people you’ve heard bad things about. To begin with if official Armenia HAVEN’T SAID ANYTHING about some Armenia proper land that Azerbaijan allegedly occupies,how could you?)You can,because you heard ANCA or some armenian friends of yours say that,right?The reality is that until the DELIMITATION and DEMARCATION of the borders haven’t happened,a discussion about 73sq km(what a fing joke),can’t happen.That’s not big enough area to be able to say on which side it is-just by looking at it,and you probably understand that very well-but your dear armenians,pro-western also(currently UNLIKE Azerbaijan-members of ruSSian csto and eurasian economic union,and biggest antisanction hub for ruzzia). So please,pretty please-PRAISE ARMENIA all you want,give them shelter in your country,actually give them about 20000 sq km of land(number which they took from us and held hostage for 30f’ing years)- but don’t talk about Azerbaijan. Even when you decide to say something good about Azerbaijan,please don’t. Thank you,and have a good one.
Armenia was there for thousands of years. If you study history of that area you will see that even 700 years ago there was no Turkey nor Azerbaijan, which was Armenian lands with millions of Armenians.
Not anymore. Otherwise, there were Hazars and Sycthian in that area before Armenians and then Turks as grandchildren of them can demand the lands too :) So, your way of thinking is not logical.
@@antifirizemre Using your twisted logic we can also say Palestinian lands are no longer theirs today because Israel took them over using its power by ethnically cleansing them of Palestinians. And if we accept this as the norm, as you are suggesting, then why is the entire Muslim World up in arms threatening to wipe Israel off the map? You make no sense!
As a side note, this most recent shooting war literally touched the other side of the world. I was driving home from work along the 134 Freeway, just north of Los Angeles when the traffic suddenly came to a halt in Glendale, which has a strong Armenian-American community. Apparently, some protestors had blocked off the freeway to draw attention to what was happening in Karabakh.
@@douglassun8456 Yes, this is what they do, beg for sanctions on Azerbaijan. Despite the fact that Armenia actually occupied 20% of Azerbaijan for 30 years.
@@objectdefiance4027 No, no, no! "Stan" is Hayastan - the correct name of your so called ancient county "armenia". Don't you forget this! Arminia and Hayastan are two completely different things.
@@objectdefiance4027 ❗️30 years of occupation of 20% of Azerbaijan's territory ❗️750 000 of Azerbaijanis displaced in Azerbaijan itself ❗️250 000 expelled from Armenia ❗️7 towns & 900 villages razed to the ground ❗️Genocide of Khojaly on February 26, 1992. All committed by "peaceful", "civilized", "ancient" armenians. Got it?
We want to live in peace with all our neighbors. We want to see peace in the Caucasus, and develop together faster like the old times. Peace from Azerbaijan. ✌️
Very good video James! I believe that even if the agreement is reached, it will only last if Armenian army is strong enough so that Azerbaijan has a lot to lose. Loss of Nagorno Karabah is Armenian fault. While Azerbaijan used its oil money to build military, Armenian politicians were busy stealing. The only guarantee for peace is a strong military, always was and always will be. International law is only present on paper and is being applied to weak contries.
Thanks Nikola. I agree that the seeds of this loss were sown a long time ago. Even a decade ago it was becoming clear that Azerbaijan was spending huge sums to build up its military. I’m just not sure that Armenia would be best served by building up its armed forces. This risks triggering an arms race that it can barely afford. A lot rests on Aliyev. Does he really want peace, or does he need conflict to survive?
@@JamesKerLindsayI’m sorry but you contradict yourself. If the prospect of war as you yourself state depends on the whims of Aliev, than Armenia would best serve its interests by arming itself to the best of its abilities to withstand a possible future invasion.
@@JamesKerLindsay I kinda have to disagree here. Azerbaijan is a dictatorship while having an exclave separated by enemy state. Armenia does not need to have very strong offensive army, but enough arms to strike Baku and inflict significant damage if being attacked. I don't think that there is a doubt if Azerbaijan is going to attack again, but when. Every single dictator in the history needed a conflict to survive, I do not see why would Aliyev be any different.
@@JamesKerLindsay Islamic imperialism demands him to occupy ALL of Armenia and make it "dar al-Islam" (under Islamic rule according to Quran). If Armenia won't form an alliance with a strong country, they are done for
@@NikolaHD tragically, I’m afraid objective observation of history tends to support your conclusion. Hoping for peace in the presence of dictatorship is gross negligence.
thanks for the video professor as an Azerbaijani I can say that the agreement is not yet the peak of success. We must understand how the peoples will get along with each other and this is a big question. Because both peoples have a dislike for each other and this makes you wonder if there will really be REAL peace
Thank you so much. You make a really important point. An agreement is not the end of things. It marks the start of a vital new phase: reconciliation. This will indeed be crucial for ensuring that any settlement not only lasts, but can be the basis for constructive positive relations in the future.
@@liilu8 welcome to real world. Where were you when 800 thousand Azerbaijani people from Karabakh and surrounding regions were forced to run for their lives and many thousands died? Now you will understand Azerbaijani people's hatred. Many of those soldiers who fought in 2020 war grew up with that hatred since they were from the families who were killed or forced to leave their homes.
As an Azerbaijani, no, we don’t want war again. We don’t have a desire of occupying Armenia’s lands. We just wanted to take back which was already ours. And we did it.
I have been multiple times to both countries. I am a 3rd national (Italian). I have friends on both sides. Mind that while in Baku I was asking "can I say the A word" (meaning at Armenia) and viceversa in Yerevan (meaning at Azerbaijan) and nobody cared that much, because it's the main topic in both countries and everyone at least once, talked about it. One factor that probably most of you won't understand is that how entrenched is this war in regular people. These are relatively small countries. Everyone knows at least someone who got displaced (I know people who left Stepanakert last year personally, I have an Azerbaijani friend who originally was displaced in the 90s as result of the occupation of NK), someone who was at the front, maybe someone who died and it will take 50 years of peaceful coexistence to fix these issues. At least. Not to mention the fact in a hostel in Tbilisi once I was in a room with people from both countries, and they kinda started yelling each other, rather than comprehending. It's so incredibly sad that two people - aside from religion - that shares so much in so many things, hates so much. And once abroad, these things tend to disappear. With some - as aforementioned - exceptions. I don't know if the wounds will be healed or if the scars will slowly disappear. There's just hope for the stop of the hostilities, once and for all. This implies also Turkey, starting to finally recognize the Armenian Border, and working / cooperating better on the huge armenian heritage which is in the country (E.G. Akdamar Island, Ani, and much more), and possibly, move on with the genocide (finding a compromize between recognition that it happened from Turkish side vs Armenia dropping clauses to ask for Compensations which might arise once got the recognition) The region deserves peace, stability, prosperity and cooperation. We all deserve to move on.
Welcome to Islam sir. This is how they work. The Azeris backed by the Turks want to take ALL of Armenia, the "palestinians" want to take over all of Israel, the Pakistanis want to take lands from India, and the list goes on...
I believe that both nations, the Turks and the Armenians, are willing to coexist in a peaceful state. However, the memories of the recent war are still very fresh, and many people have lost loved ones, which requires time to heal. Despite this, I am very optimistic that peace will eventually prevail.
Akdamar island is known as rape island. During rebellion of Van at 1915 thousands of Turkish women abducted and raped by Armenians. That was one of the leading events to temporarily relocation of Armenians near front. Btw Turkey recognizing Armenian border, Armenia is the one who never mention Kars and Moskow Agreements which are only agreements relating mutual border. Because as former president of Armenia said "we invaded Karabakh, our children will invade east Turkey." To this day Armenia don't respect border agreement with Turkey and claim half of Turkey. Yeah its really funny that 3m country claims half of 85m country but racism(tseghakronism) in Armenian society is deep rooted that they just ignore any logical and realist thoughts. Tomorrow Armenian fm will met with Turkish counterpart at border. I hope Armenians and Armenia will finally left childish territorial claims on Turkey and Azerbaijan.
@@SAta-vl6fi and the real instigators of both wars- between Turks and Armenians as well as Armenians and Azerbaijanis - namely, Russia is just standing aside watching who to devour.
Have a lot of respect for Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan and his pragmatic approach to end the conflicts in the region. After decades of being a Russian protectorate, it is time for Arminia to join the free world. Arminian people are innovative hardworking individuals, and soon Arminia will become the financial center of the region.
Thanks. I agree. I also have a tremendous amount of respect for him and what he is doing. It is incredibly difficult politically. It is also very painful for ordinary people. But instead of wallowing in defeat and victimisation and promising them that Nagorno-Karabakh will be retaken, he is being honest with them. It is rare that a political leader is able to do this. I can think of many other situations that would be drastically improved if political leaders elsewhere did the same.
Pashinyan handles war defeat well, he is pragmatic. On the other hand, like his predecessors, he is also to blame for the fact that Armenia got into a war with Azerbaijan and they lost. It would have been much wiser if he had sought a compromise solution instead of war, and if Armenia had been willing to withdraw from the occupied territories, to demilitarize, in return for Nagorno-Karabakh's autonomy and the arrival of UN peacekeepers in the region. The Armenians could have achieved much better peace terms in peace negotiations than in the war, if they had the will to compromise.
😅 It's funny, right? 🇦🇲 Armenia occupied for 27 years, 20% of 🇦🇿 Azerbaijan, and caused 800K/1M refugees (and nobody cared about them), and now Azerbaijan is being blamed for not wanting a peace deal? 😂 Why wasn't there a peace deal for 27 years? Why Armenia did not initiate a peace deal for so long? The bias in people and politics is amazing (not you professor, just reading through the comments)
Armenia did not occupy any Azerbaijani land because Azerbaijan was an artificial creation of the Turks and the Soviets in the first place. Armenian territories were taken away and placed under Azerbaijan-SSR control once the Soviets took over Azerbaijan. You don't know history and you don't know what you are talking about. How can a piece of land be Azerbaijani yet its population be almost exclusively Armenian? Because the land is not Azerbaijani land and the boundaries of Azerbaijan-SSR were extended to include this piece of Armenian territory and that's why the population of this land, even though inside enemy boundaries illegally, was nearly all Armenian. Azerbaijanis throughout history have been desecrating and destroying anything and everything Armenian that would bear witness to Armenian existence in territories under their control. Why would they spare this land and allow it to be exclusively Armenian if it was theirs? It was not and never was theirs. That's why!
@@AraratArmenia-hi4xw I hope you realize that your "artificial" armenian history sounds ridiculous. If you really believe in what you wrote, then you have some problems. Go and check with the doctor.
It should have been Armenian territory from the beginning. They have a right to self determination. Azerbaijan was going to oppress and remove the Armenians living in their historical land
@@JackDSquat What is "the beginning" ? All armenian claims and "arguments'" are based on cucked-up fantasies created by russian imperial secret police prior to occupation of lands from Qajar Iran. This is why you may not find any building in Yerevan (used to Iravan) more than 200 years old. All of them were leveled to ground to sweep up history of the former turk descent rulers of the Iravan Khanate.
Based on the population it was mainly Armenian from what I know. I’m not from either country but based on history this looks to be the case. I’m all about reading the facts and not creating a false narrative.
Thanks. Yes, it was mainly inhabited by Armenians. But the territory officially belonged to Azerbaijan. The hope was that a peaceful settlement could be found.
@@JamesKerLindsay so I did some more information digging and actually found that Stalin had handed over the land to Azerbaijani. Now since a dictator had handed this land over does this still have meaning.
Okay at 7:22 there's a mistake. There are no "Azeri-inhabited villages" in Armenia just as there are no Armenian villages in Azerbaijan. The ethnic cleansing that finalized in 1991 had seen both populations (Azeris in Armenia/Armenians in Azerbaijan) completely leave the respective countries. What you meant is that those villages de jure belong to Azerbaijan as they are within former Azerbaijan SSR borders.
Surprised to hear phrases like: “Armenia will probably learn to accept that nagorno karabakh is lost forever” .. “nations that loose historic territory at some point move on” .. you always seemed to be more diplomatic and refrained from taking sides so far, I wonder what has changed to make you deviate from your norm
I've been following Prof. for a while. Generally, he tries to be more diplomatic and unbiased. But, still one can notice his sympathy on the Armenian side which is the aggressor and occupier particularly in this conflict.
After over a century, Armenians have not forgotten Western Armenia which was lost in the Armenian Genocide. After 4 centuries, we have not forgotten Nakhichevan, and after a millenia we have not forgotten our Cilicia. Ancient races of people have ancient memory, Artsakh will never be forgotten.
@@Diegos7771 All the wars in the region, as well as violence and pogroms before that, were started by Azerbaijan. It's an indisputable and easily verifiable fact. You can master wikipedia, can't you? And neither of the UNSC resolutions on this subject ever mentioned Armenia as an occupier, only a side that can influence "local forces". Try to explore sources other than azeri propaganda.
@augustazoe2844 : Actually, I'm well aware of the current conflict. You seem to be very biased on blaming solely the Azerbaijan side. Both sides have responsibility for the conflict. You ignore the major factor that there is an occupier side and a victim. It was Azerbaijan whose territory was under occupation for 30 years and displaced people over 800 000. So, who is responsible for the destroyed lands and homes to nearly millions of lives? You cannot treat the same occupier(aggressor) with the victim side. What Armenia did is the same as Russia does to Ukraine. Occupy the territory of sovereign country and justify by historical claims. Exact same narrative.
@@Diegos7771 Please do not accuse me of a bias while clearly showing one yourself. In any conflict, the side that is responsible for ALL the bloodshed and ALL the destruction is the one that started the violence and war. And it was Azerbaijan. Azerbaijan was always the aggressor. So don't "bothside" here. Fancy Hitler complaining about the bombing of Berlin. As for displaced persons, a similar number of Armenians were displaced from Azerbaijan.Their lives do not matter to the likes of you very much, obviously.
Armenia risks representing a dangerous precedent for India here. The fact that Russia threw Armenia, its 200 years old ally, to the bus, said a lot about Russia's behaviour. Armenia, in fact, was the first to receive some of the best Russian weapons, something India has not equalled with the same opportunity despite being far more powerful. With Russia is secretly backing China and Pakistan against India in Himalaya and Kashmir, why did Modi still think that Russia is reliable... is even more dangerous than leaving Russia's sphere of influence.
Not only that it threw it under the bus, but members of the CSTO were selling weapons to Azerbaijan (more specifically, Belarus) in the middle of their 2022 war. You can't make this shit up. Armenia was and still is as of yet a CSTO member. And a CSTO allied country sold weapons to the country that attacked it. No wonder Pashinyan wants out of CSTO.
I am sure the Indians know their geopolitical situation and aim to be fully independent from foreign actors, which is something Armenia couldn't hope to achieve.
The analogy is wrong. Armenia was an ally of Russia, India was a neutral, non-aligned country. Russian soldiers were stationed in Armenia and Nagorno-Karabakh, but the Russian army is not there in India and Kashmir. Armenia is a small, weak country, India is a great power, a nuclear power. India's situation is more similar to Algeria and Vietnam, due to historical reasons they bought and are buying most of their weapons from Russia, but they are increasingly seeking diversification due to geopolitical risks.
Ahhhhhhhh, somebody is trying to play that colonial game of divide and rule again. Indians (no a Modi bhakt here) are smart enough to understand the ulterior zwestern motive .... to use them as canon fodders against China!
1. Armenians were brought to South Caucasus by Russian Empire after russians occupied Azerbaijani Irevan and Karabakh khannates. 2. Karabakh did not always had a majority Armenian population. The demographics were forcibly changed by Russian ls in early XX century. 3. Before the attack of the Armenian army on Azerbaijan 28% of Karabakh's population were Azerbaijanis. 4. The autonomy of armenians within Azerbaijan was artificially created by Lenin and Stalin despite protests of Azerbaijan.
Sorry, but we really need to get beyond this sort of propaganda. The idea that Armenians were implanted into the Caucasus by Russia is frankly insulting. I know that there is little love lost between Armenians and Azerbaijanis, but making up things like this reduces all credibility on the Azerbaijani side. Let’s have a serious conversation based on serious points.
@@JamesKerLindsay Thanks for your response, James. We aren't making this up. This is not like the so-called "Great Armenia" debate that mostly is a myth. This is the official documents of Russian Empire and the Soviet Union that I'm talking about. It's pity you don't speak Russian. But you can google documents about the exchange of the population between Russian Empire and Persia signed in 1829. Russians deported Turkic speaking population from Karabakh and Irəvan and brought in Armenians in exchange. Then famous Russian poet Griboedov was the ambassador who signed that treaty. It's a FACT that you can check. Another's FACT is a demographic policy of Soviet Union, in 1948 Stalin ordered 100000 Azerbaijanis to be deported from Armenian SSR to Azerbaijan SSR. This document is available on the internet. There were several other "waves" if deportation. Just look for it, read it. I am not saying you have to dislike Armenians, just learn some FACTS as long as you're trying to tell people about this conflict.
Thanks goodness nations learn history not from the Azerbaijan propaganda but from their own sources. Starting from ancientGreeks, Persians, Romans, medieval Europeans, Arabs, Mongols Armenians and Armenia are recognized. All nations read and find out about Armenia and Armenians from their own history books, chronologies and maps... how hard Azerbaijan tries, will always fail, as the world knows from their own sources (all kept in archives, museums, cathedrsls) that Armenians are indigenous in the region,while there is no hint, no mention of anything associated with Azerbaijan.
Great analysis as always professor. I fear that unless the E.U puts pressure on baku( not likely because they need them as a bridge for central Asian oil and natural gas), aliyev will have no incentive to accept a reasonable peace deal. Do you think the September 2023 offensive was the last straw in the Russia armenia relationship? I think that Russia will not let Armenia leave its sphere of influence so easily. I also think that Russia has too much leverage over Armenia’s economy for Armenia to move westward so suddenly.
I don't think it's worth breaking with Russia completely for Armenia either. The connections are close. And the West offers no alternative. Armenia is in a particularly difficult situation, as it does not geographically border either the European Union or the Eurasian Economic Union. It is clear that it is in his interest to have a good relationship with both. In the new Cold War, however, it will be difficult to balance.
well, i beg your pardon, move your ass and help Armenia. I am just agitated by seeing how slow US is in helping Armenia to protect itself from the Bear. Help Ukraine first of all. You promised to be Ukraine's protector when demanded that Ukraine destroy its nuclear arsenal. hopefully after Ukraine's successful ending of the war, Armenia and my Azerbaijan will change the course towards the stronger side. Aliyev is temporary and putin's puppet
@@memmedbaku4606 U.S won't help Armenia that much. It will give it some help, but they need good relations with Baku to unlock central asian energy sources.
*Azerbaijan must insist and involve Russia and Turkiye as guarantee before signing any agreement with Armenia. Learn from Russia. Never trust any agreement sign that involve the West.*
How are the Armenians living under Azerbaijani rule faring?? No mention of them? Is there ethnic cleansing? Is there oppression? Arrests. Executions This seems to me to be vital importance on whether there should be peace or not
@@TheJalipa It shouldn’t be… but it’s been ignored and celebrated as “resolving a 35 year old conflict” which in itself invalidates international law and ignores the longer history of the conflict going back to the 18th century when the Turkic tribes (precursors of Azerbaijanis) invaded the highlands of Eastern Armenia (Nagorno Karabakh/Artsakh and Syunik).
Both countries are getting mature enough to stop the conflict and give a positive example to other conflicting nations. We have much more serious enemies like climate change ahead and we need solidarity in all regions for that. Regards from Azerbaijan.🇦🇿
I think the demand for change of Armenia's constitution is quite straightforward and not a delay tool. What nation in sound mind would make a peace agreement with another one that openly endorses its hostility on paper? As an interim solution Azerbaijan offered to sign the "neighborhood principles". What else can Azerbaijan do? So the best for friends of Armenia is to either explain to it that no part of any neighbor can be listed in constitution as a co-founder. Or to step aside and see what happens...
As a victor, I don't think AZ would agree to any deal without the removal of the "land claim" in the AM constitution. Also, the corridor might actually be economically beneficial to AM as well...
The history of this region is almost impossibly complex to understand. The conflict has religious overtones which ought to have been referred to. Armenian Christianity is not only ancient, but also holds to a different theology which sets them at odds with the Russian Orthodox. I don't know the details but but it seems to matter.
I don't believe there will be a peace, simply because Aliyev doesn't want it. He relies on the having Armenians as an enemy to survive. Not only it's his only selling point to its own people, but also he is under the strong influence of Russia who benefits from this conflict. Unfortunately, having a strong military to a point where an aggression is too costly for Azerbaijan is the only way to peace. Armenia and Azerbaijan are not Switzerland and Austria. The only language Aliyev understands is that of body bags.
I applaud both sides. They are choosing progress and moving forward instead of the endless war of Karabakh. Now Armenia seems to have accepted the facts on the ground leading the way to peace and hopefully economic development for Armenia and the wider region.
Dear professor Lindsay, allow me to thank you for accurately and without bias describing situation between Azerbaijan and Armenia. As an Azerbaijani citizen. I hope peace will come. But i must admit, that skepticism is unfortunately strong at least among my people. My grandparents are all for the peace and hope they can reconnect with some of their Armenian friends . But my parents in contrast are much more vitriol towards peace and fear that war might happen again
Thank you very much indeed. I really do hope that the two countries can find a way to reach a full and lasting settlement. But it will certainly take a little of work to build a better relationship. Let’s hope it can be done.
Nikol Pashinyan is doing a great work and he should continue it. Here in Pakistan, instead of, making peace with India, our governments ignited jingoism. I agree Indian establishment was and is always against us but they have greater threat of China. Pakistan should resolve the issue, and let the part of Indian occupied Kshmir be a part of India, and only keep its part of Gilgit Baltistan and Azad Kashmir safeguarded from India Then focus on economy and other sectors instead of competiting india in arm race. India is seven times larger than us but our stock pile of arms is, approximately, equal to that of India. This caused a huge blow to our economy. Even our political system is hegemonic against democratic and civil rule because of powerful army. Armenian Nation should learn from our miserable situation and help their PM in his pragmatic and realistic approach. If Armenian Nation backs their PM then surely he can deal better with Azarbaijan. After strucking a deal with Azarbaijan, like Oman's Shah Qaboos did when he got a accord with UAE on weak terms, the Armenian Nation should focus economy and other things.
Thank you so much. I agree. Far too often it is easier for political leaders to stoke nationalism than try to solve issues. It is a rare leader who can level with their people and present and clear vision for a better future, even if it requires painful decisions now.
Prof Ker-Lindsay, could you do a video on why some central European countries, viz Austria, Hungary and Slovakia, seem more friendly to Russia than their neighbours? Is it just due to the preferences of their current political leaders, or is there some geo-political history behind it?
It’s a shame that world leader only act in their own interests and never do the morally right thing. The people of Artsakh deserve their right of self-determination just as much as the Kosovars and Palestinians.
almost like the Soviets purposefully deported Azerbaijanis in Armenia to Azerbaijan and did not bother about Karabakh in order to cause border disputes, like they did to Central Asian Turks and Tajiks.
Pashinyan reminds me of Neville Chamberlain who appeased the tyrant Hitler (Aliyev) and thought he’d done enough avoid further conflict.I hope history does not repeat itself
@@aahmadov I do not posses superior knowledge, nor did I ever say anything you pulled against me. My point stands, literally no one in the world says the stupid crap azeris say about Armenia, makes one really think, how do y'all come up with these? I'll never portray anyone incorrectly, Aliyev is a dictator, that's all I know and it's all I will say, have a great day.
@@Bemaye Yes Aliyev is a Dictator and this somehow makes 10 million Azerbaijanies somehow inferior to others? The reality is that no matter what or who say, Azerbaijan will do everything necessary to further its interest and funny enough it actually works for Armenia in the long run
@@Fididesp2 Of course Armenia wants peace, it has no choice but Aliyev keeps asking for more and eventually it will fire back. The constitution of any country must be changed by the people, not the government, the same applies to Armenia.
What i have noticed is Armenia govt has finally accepted they're outmatched by their neighbours thus they're embarking on journey to establish relations with all big countries. They're establishing relations with eu and even expressing to join them. Second they recognised Palestine which was showered with praise this will only lead to more relations with middle East countries. Armenia has accepted isolation was a bad mistake for them
why do you think only about Palestine? Armenia buys weapons from India, which has killed much more Muslims than Israel. Why Arabs do not condemn Armenia for cooperating with India? Did Palestine condemned Armenia for the Khojaly and Kelbajar massacres and ethnically cleaning 1 million Azerbaijanis from the occupied territories? Did Palestine and Arabs condemned Russia for the massacres in Ukraine?
@@user-xs8vr5yr4z you seem like a Azerbaijan nationalist. All countries have killed people. Condemn Armenia for what? No countries you mentioned are currently in conflict except russia so condemn for what? I'm not talking about Azerbaijan being condemned so what's the point of bringing this different thing?
No, because the next prime minister will undo it all and Azerbaijan has no issue launching another invasion. I was living in Armenia until the end of June. On the ground, the PM is very unpopular and a lot of people call for war basically.
Mr. Ker-Lindsay: Do all those pictures depicting negotiations between Armenia and Azerbaijan with Antony Blinkin in the middle bother you? They should. Mr. Blinkin’s performance as US Secretary of State over the past 3.5 years has been nothing more than abysmal: He helped foment the wars in Ukraine and Gaza and has been stoking enmity with China over Taiwan. He has zero diplomatic credibility. This leads one to ask: What is Mr. Blinkin doing “mediating” between Armenia and Azerbaijan? How is this in the interest of the United States? A study of a map of the region will tell you what Mr. Blinkin is up to. Having lost the proxy war with Russia in Ukraine, the US is looking to open another front from which to project power against Russia. The US wants to resolve the Armenia/Azerbaijan conflict so that Armenia can join NATO and the US can establish a military base on Armenian territory. From there, the US can and would install missiles that can attack not only Russia, but Iran as well. Since the Chinese “Belt and Road” initiative runs through Azerbaijan, the US can use a NATO base in Armenia to interdict Chinese shipping lanes that run through Azerbaijan and the Caspian Sea. THAT is what Mr. Blinkin is up to in Armenia. You can rest assured that Vladimir Putin, Xi Jinping and Iran’s Supreme Leader have something significant to say about Mr. Blinkin’s machinations in the region. You need to address that issue in any discussion of “peace” negotiations in the South Caucuses.
I wonder what would be the role in any peace negotiations of the Karabakh Armenians who have left the region since Azerbaijan retook it. My understanding is that there are hardly any Armenians left. I was travelling in the region back in 2008, and the place definitely had an intensely Armenian feel to it at the time, partly a result of the war in the 1990s. I understand that the region was ethnically more mixed during Soviet times. What will happen now? Is the return of the Armenian civilians to their homes a realistic perspective, or will the towns and villages be repopulated with Azerbaijanis?
The refugees generally say that they want to go back, but they also say that they wouldn't go back under Baku's control. This is simply an impossible request. Considering that there are no strong leaders for the Karabakh Armenians--the final government was pushed into power by Moscow just to sign a document marking the end of the Republic of Artsakh, it's most likely that the refugees will be sidelined in any future agreements.
@@user-nk5qf4nm5p that number keeps going up by the day it seems. 700k Azeris were expelled from Armenia and Artsakh, 500K Armenians were expelled from Azerbaijan. Between 200 and 600 were killed in khojaly, while it is a tragedy for sure, it could have easily been avoided had the azeris stopped using Khojaly to Shell Stepanakert. Go spread your misinformation elsewhere.
@@Harut4 Very similar to your 1,5M number isnt it? You dont even open your state sources, dont accept other countries records and dont wanna hear what the Turkish records say either. Now after a century stuck between two Turkic states and all you do is crying.
I've been very impressed with the leadership of Armenia now that they are less reliant on Russia. Pashinyan seemed like a lacking leader for foreign affairs for a good while, but has taken this resolution seriously. We may see permanent peace and genuine rapprochement. And this is only because Pashinyan and Yerevan are willing to compromise with Baku, because Aliyev wasn't coming to that level of the table.
Thanks. I completely agree. It takes an incredibly brave leader to take the steps that he has. But I think that many ordinary Armenians, as much as they feel the pain of losing Nagorno-Karabakh, want to move on. It will be interesting to see how this plays out. Will Azerbaijan go for it? (But the way, I am trying out a new policy of giving members the first view of new videos. What do you think?)
what gives you to think so? Nothing has changed institutionally in Armenia: Armenia is a member of the Russian-led CSTO and EEU.. Armenia actively helps Russia to bypass sanctions. Armenia refused to meet with Aliyev in the latest meeting in Oxford. Dont full yourself! Yerevan's rhetoric is nothing else than smoke screen to help Russia to bypass sanctions, and to take advantage from the Russian-Ukrainian war and Russian-West conflict to get as much financial support from the West as possible. At the same time, wait and see what is the outcome of the conflict for Russia, because Putin proposed to Pashinyan to not hurry and leave the signing the peace treaty for the next generations. That is what Pashinyan tries to do.... Armenia will not change Russia for the EU, because it is economy 90% depends on Russia's finance. Russia owns the most of the Armenian economy.
@@JamesKerLindsayinteresting... I am sure Putin also "feels pain" when thinking of returning Crimea to Ukraine. Shall he keep it? Your false "sympathy" to an agressor is terrifying. I'd expect of a professional to think of concequences of such emotionality towards occupants of a soveregn territories of neighbors.
@@user-xs8vr5yr4z You can institutionally be part of something but change your policies just like Hungary is part of the EU and NATO but actively goes against collective interests. Also Armenia isn’t actively helping Russia bypass sanctions, there might be a few companies trying to do this but the government has actually taken active steps to prevent this. The same cannot be said about Azerbaijan which send tons of Russian gas via Turkey and helps Russia bypass sanctions and gain billions in revenue. Armenia’s largest trading partner is Russia and they receive a lot of their gas from Russia also but they are diversifying both their economy and gas supplies just like they reduced their defense dependence on Russia. And finally it is Azerbaijan which refuses to sign a deal, Armenia has said let’s sign a deal based on territorial integrity and opening borders but obviously the dictatorship in Baku wants no peace.
"Historically inhabited by Armenians" and 10 million Azerbaijanis where ethnically cleansed from Karabakh. The Armenian population of Karabakh was 120k so who can tell me the the ratio of 1milloon: 120k
Entire population of Azerbaijan today is 10 mln. And you state that there were another 10 mln of Azeris in a small NK region in late 80-s? What do you smoke? Azeris are so eager to spread lies that they don't even bother to make them look believable...
@@taartog It’s a fact that Armenians have historically inhabited Karabakh. There’s several evidence showing 1000s of years worth of presence. It only became Azeri territory due to Russia readjusting the borders which this video also confirms. Also 10 million is not an accurate number is it. 700k Azeris lived around districts around Karabakh that fled. Get your facts straight
Which is fewer than 100,000 Armenians. So now we feel sorry for the 100,000 Armenians who left in their cars of their own free will, while 700,000 Azerbaijanis were brutally displaced, walking on foot under the guns. While people speak nonsense, Baku did everything that was on their agenda. Now, cry 😢
Also, the displaced Azeris mostly came from the surrounding regions around Artsakh that Armenia seized when it won the first war in the 90s, and from Armenia proper. Very, very few came from the then Autonomous Oblast of Nagorno Karabakh.
Professor, I was told that when Cyprus' turn came in the parade of Nations of the Opening Ceremony, BBC commentator commented about Kulichenko's father and his business interests 😂😂
Tx Prof. for a reasoned & balanced narrative of another convoluted historical dispute. Hopefully a long term peaceful outcome will prevail 🙏🏻 I visited Armenia last month so found this quite timely. Hope to revisit soon & include the wider region (daily flights Larnaca/Yerevan 😊).
That's what happens if you illegally occupy another's land for 30 years. When he gets strong enough he comes for revenge. Armenia is a failed state and boogeyman of caucasus, they should start building up relations with their neighbours. They still have territorial claims over Turkey for example which generates nothing but anger.
This "peace" is exactly like the peace that Russia wants with Ukraine but since the West doesn't really give a damn about Armenia, on the contrary, they support Azerbaijan because of cheap gas, peace is a good thing here. Absolutely love the double standard. Also, the people in the comments claiming Pashinyan is a good leader are incredibly naive and I'm being very, very nice when using that word. Pashinyan is a disaster, just like Saakashvili was for Georgia, Armenians lost territory, lost their sovereignty, their dignity, lost everything under him.
This was inevitable because of the corrupt Armenian leadership previously running the country. They did nothing to improve the economy or armed forces and relied on Russia for too heavily. Pashinyan is now trying to pivot towards the west and salvage the disaster that was created by the previous presidents. Although he has made significant mistakes, there haven’t been any better alternatives so far.
@@MMerlyn91 I am not an Azeri, but I will give you my 2 cents. 1. Armenia has had 30 years time to bring a peace settlement while being able to dictate the terms. It failed to do so because the leadership back then (which was almost entirely composed of individuals from Artsakh) saw no reason to settle the dispute and wanted to keep all the captured territories. Unfortunately they misjudged the whole picture, as Azerbaijan was able to gain the edge eventually due to its natural resources. Armenia has been warned years before their losses that Azerbaijan will eventually tip the scales in their favor. 2. The West has its own issues right now, and one of the main issues, especially in Europe, is energy dependency on Russia. Everyone is now seeking alternative energy providers and Azerbaijan is one of them, whether we like it or not. Also, technically speaking Armenia is still a CSTO member, so an enemy of the West. Now I know the Armenian position in relation to Ukraine is far more nuanced, but at the end of the day we are at war with Russia and as of right now, you are a Russian ally. 3. Pashinyan at the beginning tried to maintain the poisoned apple left by Kocharyan/Sargsyan but that eventually became untennable and now he is adopting the only way out of this. A peace settlement, even on unfavorable terms, that would prevent Azerbaijan to invade Armenia in the future. Artsakh is lost. Forever. You will need to come to terms with this and make do with what you have. Because if you don't, you might risk losing far more than just Artsakh. The Azeri military right now is capable of conducting deep military offensives and is able to take and control more land. And unfortunately, in the neighborhood where you are in, you don't really have allies willing to go to war for you. Russia didn't give a damn and it will not give a damn anymore once you are out of CSTO. Who will you count on? Iran? There is no guarantee the Ayatollah will come to your aid.
@@Kalimdor199Menegroth First of all, "we" are not in war with Russia. Ukraine is. It's an important distinction that many warmongers or naive people don't make. We support Ukraine, but we're not at war with Russia. Two, Azeris can and will still invade Southern Armenia regardless of whatever "peace" they may sign, unless Armenia somehow gets into NATO.
Armenia did not lose territory, but if u keep continuing believe the idea that Armenia should not stick the peace of whatever you call then they will lose territory and then teardrop and roaring doesn’t bring back anything but sadness for Armenia
It is really interesting to see that some assume Azerbaijan is not interested in the durable peace, while it was Azerbaijan who proposed the comprehensive peace agreement in the first place (in 2021). Moreover, how does a successful border delimitation as a result of negotations (!) not count towards a great achievement for the sake of peace?
I think that if the connection between Nahcivan and Azebajcan is provided properly (maybe with mutual land exchange), the permanent peace could be posssible. This region should be normalized and these neighbour countries should be able to trade freely between each other. Thus, Armenia can get a good economy with the region. And this can also help for Turkey's and Azerbajcan's economy too.
Karabakh was NEVER Armenian! “Nagorno” was created by Russians in early USSR - that is a Russian word! It was artificially carved out of the larger Karabakh region to grant compactly living Armenians (who were settled here by Russians in 1828!) an autonomy in order to control Azerbaijan! All this BS scheme is now ruined and Russia is out of Azerbaijan. Bye 👋
When Azerbaijan and Armenia approached peace, the European Peace Fund intervened and the American military began military exercises in Armenia. In April 2022, Russia and Ukraine signed a peace treaty, but then B. Johnson arrived and sent Ukraine to war. (video ) - Армения не хочет воевать, но Запад толкает страну в пропасть
Thanks Prof for the material. This video mainly is good, but still mainly reflects Armenian centric views. You mentioned Pashinyan's efforts on peace settlement, but it was him who ignited tension early in his presidency by his statement "Karabagh is Armenia and dot ". Azerbaijan had no choice but to retake it lands back by force. Regarding the Azerbaijan demand on Constitutional change is quite a fair point. What I'm surprised about is that you are generally supporting Armenian sided comments under your video, while strongly disagreeing with opposite views.
Thanks. The comments I tend to agree with are in fact the ones that accept that Armenia needs to make peace. What’s really interesting here is that there aren’t that many saying otherwise! That’s why you’re not seeing me disagree much with Armenians. This should tell you a lot about the mood in Armenia. Likewise, I am very supportive of Azerbaijani comments calling for peace. But what I am also seeing is a lot of those comments taking a tough position, hence my disagreement. Overall, this rather confirms the point I am making. To many outsiders, Armenia now seems more willing to pursue peace than Azerbaijan. This is merely an observation. But I would be delighted to be proved wrong. Let’s see if President Aliyev can deliver.
@@JamesKerLindsay: Thanks for the comment Prof. There are latest developments which show strong doubts in the fairness of Armenia towards peace talks. First, Pashinyan rejected the meeting with Aliyev planned in London during the European political Summit by some vague excuses. Secondly, Aliyev has officially invited Pashinyan to Azerbaijan for COP29 which is going to take place in Baku in November. But, no reaction from the Armenia side yet. These moments also should be considered while evaluating peace intentions of both sides.
To me the situation really feels like Azerbaijan will be the one not honoring any peace agreements. The prospect of controlling the Zangezur Corridor seems to be very tempting to them, and there are frequently conferences attended by cabinet officials and members of the ruling party calling for a Republic of Western Azerbaijan/Irevan... And given the need that Armenia is currently only in the beginning stages of connecting closer to France militarily and no longer cooperate with Russia, they're lacking security guarantees. Meanwhile Azerbaijan is also flexing a lot of soft power and is antagonizing France, likely BECAUSE it started supporting Armenia. I'm worried.
@Vaati1992 Your concerns seem one-sided. Azerbaijan has consistently honored peace agreements and seeks regional stability. The Zangezur Corridor is about restoring regional connectivity and cooperation, not about territorial ambitions. Conferences discussing historical and cultural topics should not be conflated with official policy. As for Armenia's alliances, it's their sovereign choice, but it doesn't justify neglecting peace processes or international norms. Azerbaijan's diplomatic efforts, including interactions with France, aim to balance regional interests and should not be misinterpreted as antagonism. Let's focus on facts and genuine efforts for peace.
Because of a complex process at the UN, the next global climate change meeting, COP29, will be held in Azerbaijan. Perhaps, with the world's attention focused on a country that most people have never heard of, the climate meeting can be a stimulus to encourage the U.S. to provide the outside pressure that Professor James is calling for.
As an Iranian Azeri, I consider Azerbaijan as a major danger in the region. If Azerbaijan goes too far, Iran won't tolerate. Azerbaijan has tried to instigate rebellions in Azerbaijan Province for several years now. Iran isn't Russia when it comes to Armenia.
Thank you for your video, you're one of a few who speak on Armenia and Azerbaijan. I was saddened to see that Israel is a blindspot for you (it was obvious in the videos you posted about Israel). I wish I could provide you with a better understanding on that conflict.
It would be helpful to mention ethnic cleansing and that Azerbaijan, in violation of agreements, is still holding Armenian POWs and other illegally detained/kidnapped persons. And they are subjected to torture and most degrading treatment. No "peace" (I don't believe any agreement will be signed) is possible until those people are released.
Thanks. There was a lot to tackle. I did mention the Armenian POWs. On the ethnic cleansing, I covered this in another video. th-cam.com/video/qd7ezvCtIYg/w-d-xo.htmlsi=jQemQeC39M8W6gle
@@JamesKerLindsay Thank you very much for your reply and for the link. There is a statement of yours I find very difficult to accept, Professor. You say that just because NK was inernationally recognised as the art of AZ it could pretty much whatever it wanted. Why wasn't Miloshevich allowed to do the same in Kosovo then? It basically means that int'l law is just a charade that is applied only when it suits powerful players to further their interests or to weaken their opponents. Just because AZ, at this moment in time was useful to European energy needs and to Israeli plans against Iran and whatever else, it was allowed to get away with so many crimes absolutely scot free.Not nice.
@@augustazoe2844 Thanks. In fact, I touched on this in my recent video on Serbia and Russia. Many Serbs argue the same. Why can Ukraine retake its territory, but Serbia couldn’t. th-cam.com/video/PdiSU9-Fge4/w-d-xo.html My only answer is that it was tied up in the context of the era. International patience had run out with Milošević after the wars of the early 1990s, when it’s worth remembering that he paid little attention to the territorial integrity of Croatia and Bosnia. However, more generally, I was actually opposed to Kosovo’s unilateral declaration of independnce because I felt that it did raise very serious legal problems that others would exploit, as we are seeing now.
@@JamesKerLindsay Thank you. It's obvious that international community has a lot of patience when it comes to Aliyev, simply because it suits their current interests. All the talk about "rules based order", "values" etc is nothing but talk. R2P was ignored in this case as well. Which, I'm afraid proves my point that int'l law is only applied when it suits interests of poweful players. Thus it stops being a law and is only an instrument to be used arbitrarily whenever it's beneficial to those who have means of enforcing it.
As a pacifist all my adult life this comes as fantastic news . I've never been more hopeful of a final peace agreement as this . Aliyev has pledged major investments in Armenia and considering the dire economic state of Armenia pashinyan is all too willing to listen . My understanding is that the offices of both leaders have had countless meetings since the end of hostilities . I think these meetings have been brokered by Russia which has a vested interest in both countries . In the 21 century no neighboring countries should be at war with each other , have we not learned from history . The benefits are just too great to ignore and both leaders understand it's a win win for both sides . PS professor you may want to take a look at the tensions on the Congo Rwanda border , Congo accuses Rwanda of siding with the m23 rebels who are causing havoc in the country .
Yes Prof should make a video on the Congo Rwanda conflict. I am especially disturbed why Rwanda is espousing a conflict on its border, although Rwanda is progressing in peace. But I am fearful this mentality of interfering in neighboring countries will lash back. Please, Professor tells us why Rwanda is being so reckless??
@thought605 Thanks. I did a video on Rwanda and Congo last year: th-cam.com/video/B5v2QiIFhmA/w-d-xo.htmlsi=jqhosdSrB1SoxUsG But I will certainly keep an eye on things.
Thanks, Roddy. I agree. I would like to think this could open a new era in relations. It would be especially beneficial for Armenia. However, I do worry that Aliyev is pushing things too far. He can afford to show a little magnanimity in victory.
@@JamesKerLindsay: Prof, can you be more specific by saying Aliyev pushing things too far? Do you think asking for constitutional change for removing territorial claims to a neighboring country is too much?
Also - what is the position of Iran with regard to maintaining its border with Armenia? And what are the broader implications shld that border disappear?
Because peace has been mysteriously sabotaged on multiple occasions in the 1990s, I wonder if a comprehenisve peace deal will be sealed , or if something will go wrong at the last moment. A lasting peace deal isn't really in Russia's or Iran's interest, because their leverage and influence over Armenia weakens. It would however be a great outcome.
Armenia indeed is in a difficult situation! 1- they don’t have natural resources Azerbaijan does. 2- they don’t have external backers as Azerbaijan get from Turkey and Israel. 3-Azerbaijan exports oil to Israel, allows Israel agents to operate in side Azerbaijan against Iran. 4- Turkey assist easing the effect of sanctions on Russia, in return Russia abandoned Armenia.
Pashinyan should never give away land in Armenia. Azerbaijan needs to respect the territory of proper Armenia and provide reparation for the 120,000 that were forced out by Aliyev.
@@albertbradley7820 Armenians want to live in peace. That is propaganda from the AZ government. Have you seen any Armenians in AZ. that live openly? Also, please read about the Baku pogrom, also known as the Baku massacres, that was a state-sponsored attack on the Armenian population of Baku, Azerbaijan SSR from January 12-19, 1990. We know Armenians are not safe in Baku, which started the adversarial stance.
So far, Azerbaijan's demand is to change constitution for peace and I believe it is understandable. With such constituion, even the peace agreement is not constitutional in Armenia.
Azerbaijani here. In Azerbaijan there is strong passion and believe in peace agreement. Most people here back the agreement if it is permanent and really works. We have two main problems not to sign the agreement. One is Armenian constitution which says Karabakh is part of Armenia, which should be changed. And Zəngəzur corridor which is very hard and controversial topic. I guess and hope Armenia will change the constitution for peace, and about corridor I think both countries should go compromise to each other. Finally, both countries’ population should demand peace, bc I think it is enough for both to kill each other for artificial Russian-made problem
As an Azerbaijani let me ask you, have you read the Armenian constitution? The Armenian constitution refers to the declaration of independence in 1991, which itself tacitly refers to Nagorno-Karabakh. Do you know your own constitution specifically states that Azerbaijan is the legal successor to the Azerbaijan of 1918-1920. This implies that Azerbaijan has territorial claims against Armenia, because the Azerbaijan of 1918-1920 claimed much of Armenian land. As for a corridor, would you agree to giving Armenia a corridor to the Caspian sea for example? Are you also aware that Azerbaijan currently occupies 200 square kilometers of Armenian land and refuses to return the land, that the government destroys Armenian graveyards and converts old churches to mosques? That you still hold Armenian pows from 2020, I’m not even talking about the political prisoners. It amazes me how easily people can be fooled by their governments. Both populations were fooled up to 2023. But now only Azeris are being fooled by their government.
@@strpet27 nope I did not read your constitution but I know there is a statement about Karabakh which should be changed. Because internationally it doesn’t belong to you and legally as well. Second about our constitution, there are a lot of things need to be changed in our constitution. But 1918-1920 Azerbaijan government did not claim any territory against Armenia, vice versa they declared that Yerevan could be given Armenia and we should recognize each other’s territory at that time. About destroying your graveyard and church, well u did the same things to us as well. How does that feel, I am not supporting it, but Karabakh Armenians should have thought before turning our mosque into pig farm or destroying our grave yards, so it is reciprocal. About Corridor, I guess you are not aware that we already agree Armenia can use our territory to connect to Russia and Iran, even Central Asian countries, as long as they treat like human being and not destroy or harm local people. finally let’s agree that we both ( Armenian and Azerbaijanis) were fooled by Russian, and they make us enemy. We need to get rid of. I believe creating mutual enemy like Russia will keep us more together and force us to solve the problem.
@@nihadasgerli3947 While I agree that there should not be animosity between us I have knowledge on this matter which I must share. I already mentioned how the Armenian constitution refers to the declaration of independence dependence which indirectly refers to Nagorno-Karabakh and if you think this is an issue then your constitution is also an issue because Azerbaijan in 1920 claimed Syunik and Gegharkunik just as Armenia in 1920 claimed Nakhijevan and Nagorno-Karabakh. Our government stated many times and signed agreements that we recognize Azerbaijan’s territorial integrity and handed over 4 villages in April this year. But your government refuses to hand over occupied Armenian villages and heights. Also Armenians didn’t destroy mosques, they invaded and took over but never destroyed mosques. Yet the first thing your government does after taking back the region is destroy buildings with Armenian heritage and convert churches to mosques. As for the corridor Armenia says you can use my land to transit but it is Armenian land but your government want’s it to be controlled by Russians. And finally there are still Armenian pows from 2020 in prisons yet Armenia returned all Azeri pows. So we can both say nice stuff like how good it will be if we make peace and remove Russian influence from the region but the truth is our country has a Russian military base and your country is improving relations with Russia every year. The fact is if your government accepted mutual constitutional change and opening of borders without corridor logic we could have a peace agreement signed tomorrow.
Reflecting on the actions of the Armenian leadership 30 years ago, it’s evident that initiating a conflict with an oil-rich neighbor like Azerbaijan has had significant long-term consequences. The plight of 700,000 Azerbaijani refugees, forced to leave their homes under dire conditions, remains a humanitarian crisis, in some places even genicide, that the international community cannot ignore. In contrast, the departure of 100,000 Armenians, who left relatively safely, highlights the differing experiences of displaced populations in this conflict. Over the past three decades, the choices made by some within the Armenian community have been controversial, including the mismanagement of cultural heritage sites. Allegations of war crimes and the current detentions in Baku are stark reminders of the ongoing repercussions of the conflict. The situation underscores the need for a comprehensive and fair resolution that acknowledges the suffering of all affected communities and promotes lasting peace in the region.
It was a pure genocide what Azerbeidjan did, and nobody gave as much as peep. And what will be next? Make peace, which will be violated once Azerbeidjan wants more, or wants it all.
Armenian minority in Karabakh not only committed genocides and ethnic cleansing against Azerbaijanis, they also took the Armenian state in Yerevan hostage and killed the prime minister who wanted make peace with Azerbaijan in 1998, in return for passage of Azerbaijan gas and oil pipelines from Armenia . They installed two presidents backed by Russia , and that regime finally ended with Pashinian’s revolution. In any case, west supported Armenian aggression and terror against Azerbaijan
I'm tired of this talking point from the pro Armenian side. Both people's hands are coated in blood and have perpetrated ethnic cleansing. It's time for Turkey, Azerbaijan, and Armenia to all admit their mutual sins and move on.
Armenia has a direct territorial claim to Azerbaijan in their constitution, citing annexing Karabakh to Armenia proper as a national goal. Until that removed, there would be no peace deal
Professor, being not sure in which field you are being specialized (you claim quite a wide area of your interests), but when coming to details, and although your story looks much more neutral comparing to what corrupt politicians release (Trump's diagnosis), still the excursions to history and descriptions of events are hugely distorted. Firstly, the first war was with participation of Russian troops backing Armenia. Russia was interested to have this ever glowing conflict assuming keeping the region under its control. Secondly, the war in 2020 was initiated by Armenia under the slogan 'new wars, new territories'. Yes, Azerbaijan was prepared, but it does not correspond to your statements reflecting events. Still, all the way during the war, the weapons were supplied to Armenia by Russia via Iran. If you would care to read Russian and Armenian sources, you would reveal an opposite to your stories picture. Or, if you would scroll Google earth to the timing before 2020, as an intelligent man you would be shocked to see the degree of devastation of the territories. Particularly, if you compare these events with what is going in Gaza, Azerbaijan was struggling with occupants (unlike events in Gaza). Azerbaijan does not want another attempt to occupy its territories which are actively being promoted in Armenia. Anyway, will have to leave it to your conscience.
I have covered this conflict in many other videos. This was a brief summary of the conflict to explain why the peace talks are in the position they are. It wasn’t meant to go into all the specifics.
@@JamesKerLindsay Why then you do not call the USA 'a historical American Indians' territory' or California 'a historical Mexican territory'? or maybe you do it in all your speeches? I refer to many distorted things in this your presentation. I just call you to be correct and immaculate in your presentation as an intelligent man, not to render this to the state of being void.
I tend to agree with many other commenters that Armenia or at least Pash (at his own detriment) is acting in good faith hoping to just end it (or at least shut the Aliyevs up finally), this obviously is not and will not go down great in Armenia for him but he obvipuzly knows that and we'll have to see if any agreement is kept in place in Yerevan. However, i think on the Turk side (both Ankara and Baku) it is quite clear that there is no such faith, good or bad, just opportunistic maxiamalist calculations, which objectively is good for them short term and in land long term, but in terms of lasting peace i do not beleive they want it really, peace means finality and finality means no further gains can be made. Am i being cynical? Yes, but humans are mostly calculating greedy machines collectively and in this case the ongoing nature of this conflict coupled with both nationalist and relious elements gives me no hope if im being honest. I want to be optimistic for both sides but i just dont see it happening long term. Great video as always, a nice watch with a morning coffee from the Big durian
Thanks so much! I agree. But I think that Azerbaijan is missing the bigger picture here. This is a really good opportunity to show magnanimity and generosity - if only to appeal to an international audience in Europe and the US. Anyway, I hope all is well at your end. I have a strange love-hate thing with durian. It is truly awful, but it’s so disgusting that I have grown to rather like it! 😀
Azerbaijan just today threatend all out war against Armenia. Important to note Azerbaijan has been getting a unprecedented amount of military shipments from Isreal the past few months.
Just like their common neighbour 🇬🇪Georgia (an EU candidate), I really feel that it would be GREAT for both 🇦🇲Armenia & 🇦🇿Azerbaijan if they can apply for 🇪🇺EU (& possibly NATO) membership as they’re Western oriented secular democracies, will really be focused into development & mutual cooperation 🤝 rather than fighting between themselves over Artsakh/ Nagorno Karabakh as they're already in EU's 'Eastern Partnership' - just like their neighbour 🇬🇪Georgia has been applying recently & has even gained Candidate status. As an example, 🇬🇷Greece has had tensions with its neighbours like 🇦🇱Albania, 🇲🇰North Macedonia & 🇹🇷Turkïye - but because they’re in the EU/ NATO, they have never become full conflicts in recent history. (Unlike post-Soviet 🇷🇺Russia-🇧🇾Belarus-🇺🇦Ukraine-🇲🇩Moldova-🇬🇪Georgia which are currently members of neither and have been in conflict in recent times).*
You talk nonsense and only what suits you. Example according to declassified Russian archives, the Armenians were forced to come to this region after the Treaty of Turkmanchai. Which proves that Armenians are not originally from this region
This week, I wanted to look at the ongoing peace efforts between Armenia and Azerbaijan. While this hasn't been in the international news lately, there's a lot of hope that the sides can reach an agreement. But what do you think? Is a final settlement really possible? Or will Azerbaijan back out? Aliyev already talking about an interim deal rather than a final agreement. And what about opposition in Armenia and amongst the diaspora? How do they feel about an agreement, and about Pashinyan? Finally, will any settlement last? As always, I look forward to your thoughts and comments below.
Considering Armenia bought half a bilion dollars of drones and missiles from Iran, I sincerely doubt it. Its France and Iran that supplies Armenia and Serbia and Israel that supplies Azerbaijan. I think they are gearing up for round 3.
Armenia didn’t buy half a billion of Iranian weapons that is false news. The article even claimed that Iran was going to open up military bases in Armenia. Anyone with a gram of knowledge can see that it is disinformation as the article surfaced on the final day of US-Armenian military exercises and after the US pledged millions in support to Armenia.
Thanks for having Azerbaycan problem sir. How about you think for Can The Azerbaycan join The Economic corridor project? i curiously wait your video sir.
Once again an interesting video James. However, regime change in Armenia may spark another conflict again. I think Russia will be one of the most important players in the region once the conflict in Ukraine ends
Prof if I'm not mistaken, Baku still has an open offer for Nagorno-Karabakh residents to return with Azeri citizenship. A key difference between this conflict and that other one. You know which one.
Perhaps you can do a video on international law regarding refugees and how they apply in these conflicts.
No one talked about peace for 30 years, when the Azeris were successful in the war, peace suddenly came to someone's mind
Peace was talked about, and it was almost reached with a land swap Deal with US mediation in 2001, but other powers had other ideas. In the period since then, Armenia was unwilling to return the land without compensation in the enshrining of armenian rights which Azerbaijan wasn’t willing to accept which is why we got war.
@@strpet27 Armenia itself was inside the borders of Azerbaijani atabegates, and later khanates, which were annexed by Russia with the treaty of Turkmenchay. When suddenly an outsider force takes over your land and divides it as they like, you get a little bit mad. That's what's happened with Azerbaijan.
@@ultrahigher6739 Who did Russia annex them from? The answer is Iran as Azerbaijan didn’t exist as a country 200 years ago. And if the ethnic composition of the region 200 years ago should somehow decide the modern day borders, we might as well go back 1000 years or more before the turks moved into the caucasus.
@@strpet27 which ethnicity were in charge of Iran for 600 years? who took charge of liberating Iran in WWI and WWII? Azerbaijani and Qashqai.
@@strpet27 go back 70 years to decide on borders and then suddenly Crimean Tatars own Crimea and Russia has no claim on it, there are as much Azerbaijani as Armenians in Yerevan. if Azerbaijan takes over Karabakh, I only wish for Artsakhians safe return to Armenia.
The problem is that people studying this topic from the outside see this conflict as a territorial dispute, while it is about the right of people to self-determination, as was the case with Kosovo, Taiwan and Palestine.
Thanks. The problem is that you are mixing up several different forms of self-determination - a very common mistake.
Under international law, the concept has two different meanings. First there is what we call external self-determination. This applies in overseas colonial contexts and allows for territories to become independent. This is relevant for Palestine. In cases of established states, we have what’s called internal self-determination. This is understood as meaningful self-rule within an established state. It doesn’t mean a right to independence, as many often mistakenly believe. This applies to secessionist conflicts.
Taiwan is neither. It is a unique case in international relations based on a dispute over who should have the right to be recognised as the legitimate government of China. It isn’t a secessionist issue (although it has increasingly moved in that way). Kosovo is a separate issue too in that an exception was made that went against established international principles. This has caused a lot of international division and this is why Kosovo is still not a UN member 15 years are unilaterally declaring independence.
So, while you would argue that Nagorbo-Karabakh is a self-determination dispute and not a territorial one, presumably arguing that it should have a right to independence or union with Armenia, international law would see it rather differently. It was about self-rule within Azerbaijan.
When looking at these sorts of issues, it is important to be precise. Unfortunately, people often use the term self-determination without realising the two distinct forms that have emerged under international law.
You are totally right. It's a conflict between Artsakh-USSR, which became an Armenia-Azerbaijan conflict. According to the constitution of the USSR, in case of a union republic voting on leaving the Soviet Union, autonomous republics, autonomous oblasts and autonomous okrugs had the right, by means of a referendum, to independently resolve whether they will stay in the USSR or leave with the seceding union republic, as well as to raise the issue of their state-legal status.
@@JamesKerLindsay how can you justify this in Kosovo but not artsahk?
@@user-yb4xo2vj9m
I am sure their justification is that Azerbaijan has oil & gas and the British Petroleum (BP) is heavily invested in the Caspian energy exploration, transit and infrastructure. This has become even more important these days as a result of Russian invasion of Ukraine which is aided by the entire Western World, aka NATO lead by the United States, by sanctioning Russian oil & gas exports to energy-hungry Europe and increasing Azerbaijani oil & gas export to Europe. The West siding with the Armenians on people's right to self-determination in this case, like they did with Kosovo violating Serbia's territorial integrity, would have been nothing short of going against Western energy interests in the region. After all, to them securing the energy needs of Europe by supporting the dictatorship of Azerbaijan was much more important than recognizing the right of the indigenous Armenians to this piece of land on which they had lived since time immemorial.
I agree. Azerbaijan needs to be able to determine what happens with its people inside its land.
Professor please also do a video on recent iran elections in which a reformist leader was the winner. What are implications of this election and will it lead to peace from recent conflicts happening due to iran vs israel/usa
Thanks a lot. Good suggestion. I will certainly be keeping an eye on the situation. I’m just not sure we’ve seen anything monumental yet. Foreign policy decision making in Iran is a complex business, also involving the Supreme Leader. Let’s give it a little time and see where it seems to be going. (As you may remember, I did a video last year on Iranian-Israeli relations.)
Great video. Glad to see you have the facts correct on Azerbaijans tyrant dictatorship and how Armenians were stripped of their land they lived on for centuries.
I am a diaspran Armenian and I feel that the professor has described the situation and its prospects very well.
Thank you.
Don’t forget to mention that Armenia 🇦🇲 is a democratic country and Azerbaijan 🇦🇿 is a autocracy
In hindsight it's incredible that Karabakh held out as long as it did. It was a relic of an entirely different geopolitical environment where newly independent, incredibly weak states were trying to find their place on the world stage. But with the rise and entrenchment of Erdogan coupled with the desire for Azeri natural gas & LNG meant that Karabakhi autonomy was just no longer sustainable as Baku kept arming itself, thereby further strengthening its military posture vis-a-vis Stepanakert.
It’s incredible when you look at it in its entire context. Artsakh/Karabakh has been inhabited predominantly by Armenians for roughly 2,700 years, despite being conquered by countless foreign empires. This nearly three millennia of Armenian settlement only ended in 2023.
Thanks. Great point. In retrospect, a military solution became inevitable as Azerbaijan used its energy wealth to build up its military. I do wonder if Armenia will at some point look back at some point and wonder if it overplayed its hand and should have taken a solution when it was in the stronger position. The question is what happens now.
Just from looking at the map, it was hard to see how Armenia would defend Karabakh if the Azeris were determined to take it by force.
@@g1u2y345 Armenians in Karabakh and Armenia itself were brought in by Russia from Turkey and Iran. The churches in the area are not Armenian but Albanian, Also, historical center of Erevan, the capital of Armenia, is Azerbaijani.
@@g1u2y345The perpetrators of Khojaly genocide against Azerbaijanis in Karabakh are Armenians the world is silent
By the way Türkiye and Armenia border will open soon some high officers of both Side had meeting at the border to make arragment
As an Azeri I wants to say thanks for Pashiniyan because he is the only armenian PM which really wants to bring peace for us. Former PMs like Sarkisyan and Kocharyan they always try to provocate us.
What are the chances a permanent peace deal will be made? It seems like the "president" of Azerbaijan doesn't really want peace and wants to take sovereign un recognized Armenian land
@@bnbcraft6666Why does Armenia not change its constitution? "country of peace" LOL
@Fididesp2 why doesn't Azerbaijan leave all 31 Armenian villages they occupy while Armenia left the meager 4
Azerbaijan freed its lands from occupation. Armenians committed genocide in Karabakh and seized Karabakh
@@Fididesp2 kind of like what the azeris did to the Armenians in shusha in 1920 and coutless other pograms?
no question in the comments? One always hopes for peace. Listening to this gives me the feeling that Armenia is negotiating in good faith, I don't get that same confidence from Azerbaijan. feelings however are only useful about half the time. Peace 🕊🕊🕊
Thanks, Todd. Sorry. It's coming. This was a special early preview for the members. (I want you to get a first view when I can from now on.) I am just working on it! :-)
@@JamesKerLindsay thx, I'll check back later on today.
Armenia has acted in good faith unlike Azerbaijan which continues to occupy 200 square kilometers of Armenian land, holds Armenian pows and political prisoners and constantly makes provocative statements regarding Armenia’s sovereign right to buy weapons. Meanwhile they spend billions on pakistani jets and israeli drones
Warum haben Sie diesen Eindruck? Immerhin hat Aserbaijan, den Krieg gewonnen. Warum werden von Aserbaijan Konzessionen erwartet?
Wenn es nicht bald eine Friedensvereinbarung geben sollte, gehe ich von einem weiteren Krieg aus. Wenn ich Aserbaijan wäre, w+rde ich diesen krieg führen solange die Russen mit der Ukraine beschäftigt sind! Außerdem hat sich Armenien von Rußland gelöst und geht mit dem Westen, deshalb wird Rußland Armenien nicht unterstützen
Azerbaijan wants to take ALL Armenia to themselves. It's very obvious
I remember when the war over Nagorno-Karabakh broke out, as the old USS was disintegrating. At the time, the Armenians were able to achieve the conquest of the area due to better organization, equipment, and experience (many Armenian personnel having been veterans of the USSR's invasion of Afghanistan).
All these years later, it's been impressive how Azerbaijan has been able to train and equip a force large enough to achieve its strategic objective.
@@KonradAdenauerJr The Turkish drones really hurt the Armenian military they had no answer for it but look at Russia they basically neutralized the Turkish drones you don't hear of them anymore on the Ukrainian battlefield.
@@KonradAdenauerJr this is simple called oil momey, azerbaijan has been dictator ship passing throne 2 generations from dad to son, even the very last presidential election ilham aliev was introduced as the winner 1 day before the elections took place😂😂 this is similar to sadams or libyas ruller’s story. Armenia only defended its people, this areas were never Azerbajani, even during USSR Nagorni Kharabagh had its Autonomy,
@@mkryann1587 Even if you criticize Azerbaijan's leadership, it doesn't justify Armenia's occupation of Azerbaijani territories. The facts remain: Karabakh is internationally recognized as part of Azerbaijan, and Armenia's actions violated international law and numerous UN resolutions. Deflecting to internal politics doesn't change these facts.
@@tensx373 Armenia did not occopy anything, you cannot ocopy land from azerbaijan that azerbaijan never had, even during USSR Nagorno Karanagh had Autonomy, this are Armenian Lands and will always be you are the ocupant of Nagorno Kharabagh, Occupant of Naxijevan, and partial Armenian Lands you are occupant
Well, those so called "autonomous lands" were still internarionally recognized integral part of Azerbaijan, similar to Abkhazia and Osetia autonomous lands are integral part of Georgia.
Armenian population left Karabakh voluntarily. I do not think they will ever return back to Karabakh. However if such return ever happens, then Armenia must be ready to accept the return of Azeri population forceably evicted from their historical lands back in eighties.
In my opinion, Azerbaijan is acting and will continue to act in bad faith. You can really see it in the comments here, say one thing (peace, intl law, regional friendship, cites 4 UN resolutions), do another (ignore irredentist claims or claims of their state media, justify AZ occupations of AM territory w prior Armenian occupation of NK, no self reflection/complete righteousness of their position (hypernationalistic), and complete gaslighting and 'talking down' to Armenians). I'm from Southeast Asia and I see this all the time in our region. It's only natural since the power imbalance is so great with the big China next door, but in my opinion Armenians, just like ASEAN, only stands to lose to their bigger neighbors, but I understand Pashinyan kind of has no choice unlike us. Sad.
To my point, not to say Armenia hasn't itself been egregious in the past (i.e. their own pseudo-religious hypernationalism post 1st Karabakh War), but for all the talk of the four UN resolutions in favor of AZ and territorial integrity, AZ is taking full advantage of their victory to achieve borderline egregious demands from AM. Most obvious is the 73 sq km AZ occupies beyond the intl border, at some points 7+ km into Armenia that cannot be justified with "ambiguous" Soviet-era borders. The AZ anger over the Zangezur corridor seems exaggerated by state media as they have no issue accessing Nakhchivan from Iran, and they broke their tentative agreement to not cut off access via the Lachin corridor to NKR, let alone completely dismantle it, which the ARM argue voids the corridor agreement. The corridor would also cut the ARM border with Iran which would be s significant economic loss.
In my view, what has Armenia gained so far? They've withdrawn from parts of the disputed border in Tavush in good faith, only for Azerbaijan to delay their own withdrawal from parts that were supposed to go to Armenia. They've returned it seems most AZ POWs vs AZ continually keeping (and based on leaked videos) torturing AM POWs. They've ceased claiming NK in any capacity and have dissolved the 'Artsakh' polity and have even given landmine maps among other concessions I may have forgotten post-2020 war.
After that, AZ troops continue to open fire on AM positions, or when AM fires first its because AZ troops are trying to set up new positions further West based on maps I've seen. I see no reason to believe AZ media claims that ARM opens fire in aggression or is "planning another war". The Armenian military is impotent, and the nation is weak. It it may be AZ preparing the public for war again and false flagging. ARM is doing all this for at best a tentative peace. The most I see them gaining is maaaaybe normalization with Turkey but their govt seems to have more fun continually teasing it.
Of course AZ can respond that it is justified after the 30 year occupation of NK, but the worst part is that they have elevated irredentist claims on Armenia proper, and are now espousing taking the southern portion of Armenia if the Zangezur/Syunik corridor to Nakhichevan is not opened. That makes no sense. They have also suggested they would take parts of Armenia to have a border on Lake Sevan.
Fair analysis
Thanks. (I wrote a reply but your post was then missing. I was really worried that TH-cam had deleted it. Sadly, it happens. The attempt to weed out abuse sometimes goes too far.) I really appreciate the long and well considered reply. I agree. I do worry that Azerbaijan is not prepared to reach a deal as it has other plans. This seems to be a genuine fear amongst many observers and even policy makers. The fact that Azerbaijani media is perpetuating division and hatred is a very worrying sign. It doesn’t give much reason for hope that things are really and truly changing.
@@JamesKerLindsay My apologies the missing reply was my fault. I deleted my first response probably mid-way as you responded because I really dislike the open-endedness of (edited) responses and I wanted to add to my OP.
I really agree. In regards to the conflict, have to heard of Jirair Libaridian and his white paper on Armenia's mistakes and loss? To add to that, I understand that some Turkish and Azerbaijanis may see my OP comment and perceive me to be completely biased and apathetic to what Azerbaijanis went through. I do not intend that, rather the pendulum has swung and I cannot help but list what egregious behavior is currently ongoing/projected and what I fear will be crimes of the future.
To them I say I am not oblivious to events prior to 2020. The ethnic cleansing of the 7 districts, the failed peace attempts of 1998-2002 that were stopped by the AM diasporan/ultranationalist/terror groups ARF and Karabakhi-origin presidents that wanted no compromise and dragged the more "neutral" Armenian mainland public into Karabakhi absolutism, the religious nationalism i.e. "against all odds we won, we are a blessed people", the culmination of that with Pashinyan breaking all prior "status quo"/tentative peace with "Artsakh is Azerbaijan!", the dropping of a grenade from a drone on AZ soldiers that caused the September dissolution of NKR.
Time will tell, Aliyev probably won't risk inciting any larger scale conflict with Armenia over Syunik or elsewhere with the COP 29 summit coming up, Azerbaijan has been building up its PR however it can.
That being said, alot of people also thought that Putin wouldn't attack Ukraine, and look how that turned out.
you are biased and apathetic,and that’s ok,you don’t have to pretend)You probably live in the west,where armenian diaspora not only dictates the narrative to the government via pocket senators(menendez,pallone etc.),but are also your neighbours,friends,people you know,even celebrities you heard of. Azerbaijanis virtually don’t exists anywhere in the west,that’s why there are 11 millions of us in Azerbaijan,while there are more armenians in California than in Armenia. However,regardless of the reasons for your objective unawareness in those matters,I have to argue with the points you’ve made,just because I am azerbaijani and pro-justice,you are proarmenian,and I presume justice in your understanding could only be applied to the people you know vs people you’ve heard bad things about. To begin with if official Armenia HAVEN’T SAID ANYTHING about some Armenia proper land that Azerbaijan allegedly occupies,how could you?)You can,because you heard ANCA or some armenian friends of yours say that,right?The reality is that until the DELIMITATION and DEMARCATION of the borders haven’t happened,a discussion about 73sq km(what a fing joke),can’t happen.That’s not big enough area to be able to say on which side it is-just by looking at it,and you probably understand that very well-but your dear armenians,pro-western also(currently UNLIKE Azerbaijan-members of ruSSian csto and eurasian economic union,and biggest antisanction hub for ruzzia). So please,pretty please-PRAISE ARMENIA all you want,give them shelter in your country,actually give them about 20000 sq km of land(number which they took from us and held hostage for 30f’ing years)- but don’t talk about Azerbaijan. Even when you decide to say something good about Azerbaijan,please don’t. Thank you,and have a good one.
Long awaited analysis. Thank you, professor.
Thanks.
Armenia was there for thousands of years. If you study history of that area you will see that even 700 years ago there was no Turkey nor Azerbaijan, which was Armenian lands with millions of Armenians.
Not anymore. Otherwise, there were Hazars and Sycthian in that area before Armenians and then Turks as grandchildren of them can demand the lands too :) So, your way of thinking is not logical.
Armenians are also moon and mars inhabitant. They are an million years old people
@@antifirizemre
Using your twisted logic we can also say Palestinian lands are no longer theirs today because Israel took them over using its power by ethnically cleansing them of Palestinians. And if we accept this as the norm, as you are suggesting, then why is the entire Muslim World up in arms threatening to wipe Israel off the map? You make no sense!
@@Ghjkoplokkp The first human is also Armenian :)
@@antifirizemrepropaganda b ...it
As a side note, this most recent shooting war literally touched the other side of the world. I was driving home from work along the 134 Freeway, just north of Los Angeles when the traffic suddenly came to a halt in Glendale, which has a strong Armenian-American community. Apparently, some protestors had blocked off the freeway to draw attention to what was happening in Karabakh.
@@douglassun8456 Yes, this is what they do, beg for sanctions on Azerbaijan. Despite the fact that Armenia actually occupied 20% of Azerbaijan for 30 years.
@@Bekir_Pasha Typical Azeri Stan.
@@objectdefiance4027 No, no, no! "Stan" is Hayastan - the correct name of your so called ancient county "armenia". Don't you forget this! Arminia and Hayastan are two completely different things.
@@Bekir_Pasha Why are Fascists so weird man. I'm calling you a mega weirdo fan of Azerbaijan just to be clear.
@@objectdefiance4027
❗️30 years of occupation of 20% of Azerbaijan's territory
❗️750 000 of Azerbaijanis displaced in Azerbaijan itself
❗️250 000 expelled from Armenia
❗️7 towns & 900 villages razed to the ground
❗️Genocide of Khojaly on February 26, 1992.
All committed by "peaceful", "civilized", "ancient" armenians.
Got it?
We want to live in peace with all our neighbors. We want to see peace in the Caucasus, and develop together faster like the old times. Peace from Azerbaijan. ✌️
Very good video James! I believe that even if the agreement is reached, it will only last if Armenian army is strong enough so that Azerbaijan has a lot to lose. Loss of Nagorno Karabah is Armenian fault. While Azerbaijan used its oil money to build military, Armenian politicians were busy stealing. The only guarantee for peace is a strong military, always was and always will be. International law is only present on paper and is being applied to weak contries.
Thanks Nikola. I agree that the seeds of this loss were sown a long time ago. Even a decade ago it was becoming clear that Azerbaijan was spending huge sums to build up its military. I’m just not sure that Armenia would be best served by building up its armed forces. This risks triggering an arms race that it can barely afford. A lot rests on Aliyev. Does he really want peace, or does he need conflict to survive?
@@JamesKerLindsayI’m sorry but you contradict yourself. If the prospect of war as you yourself state depends on the whims of Aliev, than Armenia would best serve its interests by arming itself to the best of its abilities to withstand a possible future invasion.
@@JamesKerLindsay I kinda have to disagree here. Azerbaijan is a dictatorship while having an exclave separated by enemy state. Armenia does not need to have very strong offensive army, but enough arms to strike Baku and inflict significant damage if being attacked. I don't think that there is a doubt if Azerbaijan is going to attack again, but when. Every single dictator in the history needed a conflict to survive, I do not see why would Aliyev be any different.
@@JamesKerLindsay Islamic imperialism demands him to occupy ALL of Armenia and make it "dar al-Islam" (under Islamic rule according to Quran). If Armenia won't form an alliance with a strong country, they are done for
@@NikolaHD tragically, I’m afraid objective observation of history tends to support your conclusion.
Hoping for peace in the presence of dictatorship is gross negligence.
thanks for the video professor as an Azerbaijani I can say that the agreement is not yet the peak of success. We must understand how the peoples will get along with each other and this is a big question. Because both peoples have a dislike for each other and this makes you wonder if there will really be REAL peace
Thank you so much. You make a really important point. An agreement is not the end of things. It marks the start of a vital new phase: reconciliation. This will indeed be crucial for ensuring that any settlement not only lasts, but can be the basis for constructive positive relations in the future.
I know very well as an Armenian, my hatred has just begun...not just foe azeris for all turks anywhere
@@liilu8 Поумерьте свой пыл, а то можете захлебнуться в своей ненависти.
@@liilu8 welcome to real world. Where were you when 800 thousand Azerbaijani people from Karabakh and surrounding regions were forced to run for their lives and many thousands died? Now you will understand Azerbaijani people's hatred. Many of those soldiers who fought in 2020 war grew up with that hatred since they were from the families who were killed or forced to leave their homes.
@@liilu8 çok korktuk biz de , nefretin yeni başlamadı , hep nefret ettin , aşağılık kompleksi , kendinden nefret ediyorsun aslında
As an Azerbaijani, no, we don’t want war again. We don’t have a desire of occupying Armenia’s lands. We just wanted to take back which was already ours. And we did it.
@@lowriderbs your government thinks differently
@@Rag_ab putin thinks differently and tells Ilham to execute his instructions. And we hate that/
@memmedbaku4606 well I'm surprised to hear that because all I see is the Azerbaijani population following everything he says blindly like he's a god
He is not god. Putin is the god @@Rag_ab
@@memmedbaku4606 bro better be careful next time when azerişıq comes, I mean, iykyk
Perhaps Armenians can learn a thing a or two from Palestinians. Just because your enemy is stronger it does not mean you should just give up.
I have been multiple times to both countries. I am a 3rd national (Italian). I have friends on both sides.
Mind that while in Baku I was asking "can I say the A word" (meaning at Armenia) and viceversa in Yerevan (meaning at Azerbaijan) and nobody cared that much, because it's the main topic in both countries and everyone at least once, talked about it.
One factor that probably most of you won't understand is that how entrenched is this war in regular people.
These are relatively small countries.
Everyone knows at least someone who got displaced (I know people who left Stepanakert last year personally, I have an Azerbaijani friend who originally was displaced in the 90s as result of the occupation of NK), someone who was at the front, maybe someone who died and it will take 50 years of peaceful coexistence to fix these issues. At least.
Not to mention the fact in a hostel in Tbilisi once I was in a room with people from both countries, and they kinda started yelling each other, rather than comprehending.
It's so incredibly sad that two people - aside from religion - that shares so much in so many things, hates so much.
And once abroad, these things tend to disappear. With some - as aforementioned - exceptions.
I don't know if the wounds will be healed or if the scars will slowly disappear.
There's just hope for the stop of the hostilities, once and for all.
This implies also Turkey, starting to finally recognize the Armenian Border, and working / cooperating better on the huge armenian heritage which is in the country (E.G. Akdamar Island, Ani, and much more), and possibly, move on with the genocide (finding a compromize between recognition that it happened from Turkish side vs Armenia dropping clauses to ask for Compensations which might arise once got the recognition)
The region deserves peace, stability, prosperity and cooperation. We all deserve to move on.
Welcome to Islam sir. This is how they work. The Azeris backed by the Turks want to take ALL of Armenia, the "palestinians" want to take over all of Israel, the Pakistanis want to take lands from India, and the list goes on...
I believe that both nations, the Turks and the Armenians, are willing to coexist in a peaceful state. However, the memories of the recent war are still very fresh, and many people have lost loved ones, which requires time to heal. Despite this, I am very optimistic that peace will eventually prevail.
You are right. There will be no peace until Turkey recognizes the Armenian (and Assyrian) genocide and returns the lands, even symbolically.
Akdamar island is known as rape island. During rebellion of Van at 1915 thousands of Turkish women abducted and raped by Armenians. That was one of the leading events to temporarily relocation of Armenians near front. Btw Turkey recognizing Armenian border, Armenia is the one who never mention Kars and Moskow Agreements which are only agreements relating mutual border. Because as former president of Armenia said "we invaded Karabakh, our children will invade east Turkey." To this day Armenia don't respect border agreement with Turkey and claim half of Turkey. Yeah its really funny that 3m country claims half of 85m country but racism(tseghakronism) in Armenian society is deep rooted that they just ignore any logical and realist thoughts. Tomorrow Armenian fm will met with Turkish counterpart at border. I hope Armenians and Armenia will finally left childish territorial claims on Turkey and Azerbaijan.
@@SAta-vl6fi and the real instigators of both wars- between Turks and Armenians as well as Armenians and Azerbaijanis - namely, Russia is just standing aside watching who to devour.
Have a lot of respect for Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan and his pragmatic approach to end the conflicts in the region. After decades of being a Russian protectorate, it is time for Arminia to join the free world. Arminian people are innovative hardworking individuals, and soon Arminia will become the financial center of the region.
Thanks. I agree. I also have a tremendous amount of respect for him and what he is doing. It is incredibly difficult politically. It is also very painful for ordinary people. But instead of wallowing in defeat and victimisation and promising them that Nagorno-Karabakh will be retaken, he is being honest with them. It is rare that a political leader is able to do this. I can think of many other situations that would be drastically improved if political leaders elsewhere did the same.
If only Ukraine could learn from it@@JamesKerLindsay
Pashinyan handles war defeat well, he is pragmatic. On the other hand, like his predecessors, he is also to blame for the fact that Armenia got into a war with Azerbaijan and they lost. It would have been much wiser if he had sought a compromise solution instead of war, and if Armenia had been willing to withdraw from the occupied territories, to demilitarize, in return for Nagorno-Karabakh's autonomy and the arrival of UN peacekeepers in the region. The Armenians could have achieved much better peace terms in peace negotiations than in the war, if they had the will to compromise.
You are out of context @@ferencdeak8784
@@JamesKerLindsayif and when a peace settlement is reached Nikol Pashinyan deserves to get a Nobel Peace prize for all of his efforts.
😅 It's funny, right?
🇦🇲 Armenia occupied for 27 years, 20% of 🇦🇿 Azerbaijan, and caused 800K/1M refugees (and nobody cared about them), and now Azerbaijan is being blamed for not wanting a peace deal? 😂
Why wasn't there a peace deal for 27 years? Why Armenia did not initiate a peace deal for so long?
The bias in people and politics is amazing (not you professor, just reading through the comments)
Armenia did not occupy any Azerbaijani land because Azerbaijan was an artificial creation of the Turks and the Soviets in the first place. Armenian territories were taken away and placed under Azerbaijan-SSR control once the Soviets took over Azerbaijan. You don't know history and you don't know what you are talking about. How can a piece of land be Azerbaijani yet its population be almost exclusively Armenian? Because the land is not Azerbaijani land and the boundaries of Azerbaijan-SSR were extended to include this piece of Armenian territory and that's why the population of this land, even though inside enemy boundaries illegally, was nearly all Armenian. Azerbaijanis throughout history have been desecrating and destroying anything and everything Armenian that would bear witness to Armenian existence in territories under their control. Why would they spare this land and allow it to be exclusively Armenian if it was theirs? It was not and never was theirs. That's why!
@@AraratArmenia-hi4xw I hope you realize that your "artificial" armenian history sounds ridiculous.
If you really believe in what you wrote, then you have some problems. Go and check with the doctor.
Professor, Armenia did not lose territory, it just could not occupy it forever.
@@MehraliyevFuad well said!
Except that it lost it under the Soviets.
It should have been Armenian territory from the beginning. They have a right to self determination. Azerbaijan was going to oppress and remove the Armenians living in their historical land
@@EdMcF1 Republic of Armenia did not have any territory before Soviets at all. It was established on the lands of the former Azerbaijani khanates.
@@JackDSquat What is "the beginning" ? All armenian claims and "arguments'" are based on cucked-up fantasies created by russian imperial secret police prior to occupation of lands from Qajar Iran. This is why you may not find any building in Yerevan (used to Iravan) more than 200 years old. All of them were leveled to ground to sweep up history of the former turk descent rulers of the Iravan Khanate.
Based on the population it was mainly Armenian from what I know. I’m not from either country but based on history this looks to be the case. I’m all about reading the facts and not creating a false narrative.
Thanks. Yes, it was mainly inhabited by Armenians. But the territory officially belonged to Azerbaijan. The hope was that a peaceful settlement could be found.
Yep the territory belongs to Azerbaijan, Armenians were later transferred to our territory and created a fake country😊 @@JamesKerLindsay
@@JamesKerLindsay so I did some more information digging and actually found that Stalin had handed over the land to Azerbaijani. Now since a dictator had handed this land over does this still have meaning.
Okay at 7:22 there's a mistake. There are no "Azeri-inhabited villages" in Armenia just as there are no Armenian villages in Azerbaijan. The ethnic cleansing that finalized in 1991 had seen both populations (Azeris in Armenia/Armenians in Azerbaijan) completely leave the respective countries.
What you meant is that those villages de jure belong to Azerbaijan as they are within former Azerbaijan SSR borders.
Surprised to hear phrases like: “Armenia will probably learn to accept that nagorno karabakh is lost forever” .. “nations that loose historic territory at some point move on” .. you always seemed to be more diplomatic and refrained from taking sides so far, I wonder what has changed to make you deviate from your norm
I've been following Prof. for a while. Generally, he tries to be more diplomatic and unbiased. But, still one can notice his sympathy on the Armenian side which is the aggressor and occupier particularly in this conflict.
After over a century, Armenians have not forgotten Western Armenia which was lost in the Armenian Genocide. After 4 centuries, we have not forgotten Nakhichevan, and after a millenia we have not forgotten our Cilicia. Ancient races of people have ancient memory, Artsakh will never be forgotten.
@@Diegos7771 All the wars in the region, as well as violence and pogroms before that, were started by Azerbaijan. It's an indisputable and easily verifiable fact. You can master wikipedia, can't you? And neither of the UNSC resolutions on this subject ever mentioned Armenia as an occupier, only a side that can influence "local forces". Try to explore sources other than azeri propaganda.
@augustazoe2844 : Actually, I'm well aware of the current conflict. You seem to be very biased on blaming solely the Azerbaijan side. Both sides have responsibility for the conflict. You ignore the major factor that there is an occupier side and a victim. It was Azerbaijan whose territory was under occupation for 30 years and displaced people over 800 000. So, who is responsible for the destroyed lands and homes to nearly millions of lives? You cannot treat the same occupier(aggressor) with the victim side. What Armenia did is the same as Russia does to Ukraine. Occupy the territory of sovereign country and justify by historical claims. Exact same narrative.
@@Diegos7771 Please do not accuse me of a bias while clearly showing one yourself. In any conflict, the side that is responsible for ALL the bloodshed and ALL the destruction is the one that started the violence and war. And it was Azerbaijan. Azerbaijan was always the aggressor. So don't "bothside" here. Fancy Hitler complaining about the bombing of Berlin. As for displaced persons, a similar number of Armenians were displaced from Azerbaijan.Their lives do not matter to the likes of you very much, obviously.
Armenia risks representing a dangerous precedent for India here. The fact that Russia threw Armenia, its 200 years old ally, to the bus, said a lot about Russia's behaviour. Armenia, in fact, was the first to receive some of the best Russian weapons, something India has not equalled with the same opportunity despite being far more powerful. With Russia is secretly backing China and Pakistan against India in Himalaya and Kashmir, why did Modi still think that Russia is reliable... is even more dangerous than leaving Russia's sphere of influence.
Not only that it threw it under the bus, but members of the CSTO were selling weapons to Azerbaijan (more specifically, Belarus) in the middle of their 2022 war. You can't make this shit up. Armenia was and still is as of yet a CSTO member. And a CSTO allied country sold weapons to the country that attacked it. No wonder Pashinyan wants out of CSTO.
@@Kalimdor199Menegroth Insanity. Painful treason
I am sure the Indians know their geopolitical situation and aim to be fully independent from foreign actors, which is something Armenia couldn't hope to achieve.
The analogy is wrong. Armenia was an ally of Russia, India was a neutral, non-aligned country. Russian soldiers were stationed in Armenia and Nagorno-Karabakh, but the Russian army is not there in India and Kashmir. Armenia is a small, weak country, India is a great power, a nuclear power.
India's situation is more similar to Algeria and Vietnam, due to historical reasons they bought and are buying most of their weapons from Russia, but they are increasingly seeking diversification due to geopolitical risks.
Ahhhhhhhh, somebody is trying to play that colonial game of divide and rule again. Indians (no a Modi bhakt here) are smart enough to understand the ulterior zwestern motive .... to use them as canon fodders against China!
1. Armenians were brought to South Caucasus by Russian Empire after russians occupied Azerbaijani Irevan and Karabakh khannates.
2. Karabakh did not always had a majority Armenian population. The demographics were forcibly changed by Russian ls in early XX century.
3. Before the attack of the Armenian army on Azerbaijan 28% of Karabakh's population were Azerbaijanis.
4. The autonomy of armenians within Azerbaijan was artificially created by Lenin and Stalin despite protests of Azerbaijan.
Sorry, but we really need to get beyond this sort of propaganda. The idea that Armenians were implanted into the Caucasus by Russia is frankly insulting. I know that there is little love lost between Armenians and Azerbaijanis, but making up things like this reduces all credibility on the Azerbaijani side. Let’s have a serious conversation based on serious points.
@@JamesKerLindsay don't deny history
@@JamesKerLindsay Thanks for your response, James. We aren't making this up. This is not like the so-called "Great Armenia" debate that mostly is a myth.
This is the official documents of Russian Empire and the Soviet Union that I'm talking about. It's pity you don't speak Russian. But you can google documents about the exchange of the population between Russian Empire and Persia signed in 1829. Russians deported Turkic speaking population from Karabakh and Irəvan and brought in Armenians in exchange. Then famous Russian poet Griboedov was the ambassador who signed that treaty. It's a FACT that you can check. Another's FACT is a demographic policy of Soviet Union, in 1948 Stalin ordered 100000 Azerbaijanis to be deported from Armenian SSR to Azerbaijan SSR. This document is available on the internet. There were several other "waves" if deportation. Just look for it, read it. I am not saying you have to dislike Armenians, just learn some FACTS as long as you're trying to tell people about this conflict.
@@JamesKerLindsay Thank you James! These people just continue to spread misinformation.
Thanks goodness nations learn history not from the Azerbaijan propaganda but from their own sources. Starting from ancientGreeks, Persians, Romans, medieval Europeans, Arabs, Mongols Armenians and Armenia are recognized. All nations read and find out about Armenia and Armenians from their own history books, chronologies and maps... how hard Azerbaijan tries, will always fail, as the world knows from their own sources (all kept in archives, museums, cathedrsls) that Armenians are indigenous in the region,while there is no hint, no mention of anything associated with Azerbaijan.
Great analysis as always professor. I fear that unless the E.U puts pressure on baku( not likely because they need them as a bridge for central Asian oil and natural gas), aliyev will have no incentive to accept a reasonable peace deal. Do you think the September 2023 offensive was the last straw in the Russia armenia relationship? I think that Russia will not let Armenia leave its sphere of influence so easily. I also think that Russia has too much leverage over Armenia’s economy for Armenia to move westward so suddenly.
I don't think it's worth breaking with Russia completely for Armenia either. The connections are close. And the West offers no alternative. Armenia is in a particularly difficult situation, as it does not geographically border either the European Union or the Eurasian Economic Union. It is clear that it is in his interest to have a good relationship with both. In the new Cold War, however, it will be difficult to balance.
well, i beg your pardon, move your ass and help Armenia. I am just agitated by seeing how slow US is in helping Armenia to protect itself from the Bear. Help Ukraine first of all. You promised to be Ukraine's protector when demanded that Ukraine destroy its nuclear arsenal. hopefully after Ukraine's successful ending of the war, Armenia and my Azerbaijan will change the course towards the stronger side. Aliyev is temporary and putin's puppet
@@memmedbaku4606 U.S won't help Armenia that much. It will give it some help, but they need good relations with Baku to unlock central asian energy sources.
I hope for good and peace. Thank you for the article. Very interesting.
Thank you so much.
As always, an excellent video - well-informed, informative and balanced.
Thank you very much indeed!
Azerbaijani military is well within Armenia’s border and has no interest in peace. Dictators need enemies to be able to stay in power.
I find this very useful, James. Thank you for an enlightening exposition on the current state of affairs in the region.
*Azerbaijan must insist and involve Russia and Turkiye as guarantee before signing any agreement with Armenia. Learn from Russia. Never trust any agreement sign that involve the West.*
How are the Armenians living under Azerbaijani rule faring??
No mention of them?
Is there ethnic cleansing? Is there oppression? Arrests. Executions
This seems to me to be vital importance on whether there should be peace or not
We already know, they got forced out of their homes. It was a genocide but no one cared because of Israel.
Are there any left? Didn't they all leave Nagorno Karabakh?
@@TheJalipa There are 8 seniors left who couldn’t leave.
So Azerbaijan carried out Ethnic Cleansing…..
Is that acceptable now under international law?
@@TheJalipa It shouldn’t be… but it’s been ignored and celebrated as “resolving a 35 year old conflict” which in itself invalidates international law and ignores the longer history of the conflict going back to the 18th century when the Turkic tribes (precursors of Azerbaijanis) invaded the highlands of Eastern Armenia (Nagorno Karabakh/Artsakh and Syunik).
Both countries are getting mature enough to stop the conflict and give a positive example to other conflicting nations. We have much more serious enemies like climate change ahead and we need solidarity in all regions for that. Regards from Azerbaijan.🇦🇿
OMG GTFO with that climate change BS.
It’s easy to make peace when you surrender everything what other side demands without even trying to negotiate balanced agreement
I think the demand for change of Armenia's constitution is quite straightforward and not a delay tool. What nation in sound mind would make a peace agreement with another one that openly endorses its hostility on paper? As an interim solution Azerbaijan offered to sign the "neighborhood principles". What else can Azerbaijan do? So the best for friends of Armenia is to either explain to it that no part of any neighbor can be listed in constitution as a co-founder. Or to step aside and see what happens...
Brilliantly concise examination of a complex conflict of territorial claims, as always! Thank you. R (Australia)
Thank you very much!
As a victor, I don't think AZ would agree to any deal without the removal of the "land claim" in the AM constitution. Also, the corridor might actually be economically beneficial to AM as well...
Ümid edirəm daha bir-birlərini öldürməzlər
How is it economically beneficial when Az wants it under Russian control and free passage lmao?
@@ThomasBenson-dt2mt bir-birini öldürməmək üçün ağıl lazımdır. putlerdən uzağ durmaq lazımdır
The history of this region is almost impossibly complex to understand. The conflict has religious overtones which ought to have been referred to. Armenian Christianity is not only ancient, but also holds to a different theology which sets them at odds with the Russian Orthodox. I don't know the details but but it seems to matter.
I don't believe there will be a peace, simply because Aliyev doesn't want it. He relies on the having Armenians as an enemy to survive. Not only it's his only selling point to its own people, but also he is under the strong influence of Russia who benefits from this conflict. Unfortunately, having a strong military to a point where an aggression is too costly for Azerbaijan is the only way to peace. Armenia and Azerbaijan are not Switzerland and Austria. The only language Aliyev understands is that of body bags.
Thanks as always Professor, appreciate the analysis.
Thank you so much! Always appreciated.
I applaud both sides. They are choosing progress and moving forward instead of the endless war of Karabakh. Now Armenia seems to have accepted the facts on the ground leading the way to peace and hopefully economic development for Armenia and the wider region.
Dear professor Lindsay, allow me to thank you for accurately and without bias describing situation between Azerbaijan and Armenia. As an Azerbaijani citizen. I hope peace will come. But i must admit, that skepticism is unfortunately strong at least among my people. My grandparents are all for the peace and hope they can reconnect with some of their Armenian friends . But my parents in contrast are much more vitriol towards peace and fear that war might happen again
Thank you very much indeed. I really do hope that the two countries can find a way to reach a full and lasting settlement. But it will certainly take a little of work to build a better relationship. Let’s hope it can be done.
🇦🇲🙏👍💪💪☝️🇦🇲
Nikol Pashinyan is doing a great work and he should continue it. Here in Pakistan, instead of, making peace with India, our governments ignited jingoism. I agree Indian establishment was and is always against us but they have greater threat of China. Pakistan should resolve the issue, and let the part of Indian occupied Kshmir be a part of India, and only keep its part of Gilgit Baltistan and Azad Kashmir safeguarded from India Then focus on economy and other sectors instead of competiting india in arm race. India is seven times larger than us but our stock pile of arms is, approximately, equal to that of India. This caused a huge blow to our economy. Even our political system is hegemonic against democratic and civil rule because of powerful army.
Armenian Nation should learn from our miserable situation and help their PM in his pragmatic and realistic approach. If Armenian Nation backs their PM then surely he can deal better with Azarbaijan. After strucking a deal with Azarbaijan, like Oman's Shah Qaboos did when he got a accord with UAE on weak terms, the Armenian Nation should focus economy and other things.
Thank you so much. I agree. Far too often it is easier for political leaders to stoke nationalism than try to solve issues. It is a rare leader who can level with their people and present and clear vision for a better future, even if it requires painful decisions now.
Other thing like apologizing to Azerbaijan and paying reparations for the great damage to and occupation of Qarabag.
@@gusarov_ruslan you are wrong. Before 1918 there was no Azerbaijan. These are all Armenia’s , belong to Armenia, they should get out
Prof Ker-Lindsay, could you do a video on why some central European countries, viz Austria, Hungary and Slovakia, seem more friendly to Russia than their neighbours? Is it just due to the preferences of their current political leaders, or is there some geo-political history behind it?
It’s a shame that world leader only act in their own interests and never do the morally right thing. The people of Artsakh deserve their right of self-determination just as much as the Kosovars and Palestinians.
almost like the Soviets purposefully deported Azerbaijanis in Armenia to Azerbaijan and did not bother about Karabakh in order to cause border disputes, like they did to Central Asian Turks and Tajiks.
Pashinyan reminds me of Neville Chamberlain who appeased the tyrant Hitler (Aliyev) and thought he’d done enough avoid further conflict.I hope history does not repeat itself
Most of Armenian Leaders remind me the no one . Because all they did create a war and hide behind the russian solider
@@aahmadov average azeri, is this what propaganda they feed you over there?
@@Bemaye instead of being "smart@ss"
Write something tangible, enlighten us with your "superior" knowledge of the region
@@aahmadov I do not posses superior knowledge, nor did I ever say anything you pulled against me. My point stands, literally no one in the world says the stupid crap azeris say about Armenia, makes one really think, how do y'all come up with these? I'll never portray anyone incorrectly, Aliyev is a dictator, that's all I know and it's all I will say, have a great day.
@@Bemaye Yes Aliyev is a Dictator and this somehow makes 10 million Azerbaijanies somehow inferior to others?
The reality is that no matter what or who say,
Azerbaijan will do everything necessary to further its interest and funny enough it actually works for Armenia in the long run
I think Azerbaijan does not want peace, they keep bringing new demands to the negotiating table, that will for sure fire back)
ofc they will, they want revenge
In the constitution of Armenia, there are territorial claims against Azerbaijan and Turkey, that is, Armenia does not want peace, please be honest
@@Fididesp2 that’s a lie, read their constitution!
@@Fididesp2 Of course Armenia wants peace, it has no choice but Aliyev keeps asking for more and eventually it will fire back. The constitution of any country must be changed by the people, not the government, the same applies to Armenia.
What i have noticed is Armenia govt has finally accepted they're outmatched by their neighbours thus they're embarking on journey to establish relations with all big countries. They're establishing relations with eu and even expressing to join them. Second they recognised Palestine which was showered with praise this will only lead to more relations with middle East countries. Armenia has accepted isolation was a bad mistake for them
Israel is a big weapons supplier to Azerbaijan so no reason for Armenia not to recognise Palestine.
why do you think only about Palestine? Armenia buys weapons from India, which has killed much more Muslims than Israel. Why Arabs do not condemn Armenia for cooperating with India? Did Palestine condemned Armenia for the Khojaly and Kelbajar massacres and ethnically cleaning 1 million Azerbaijanis from the occupied territories? Did Palestine and Arabs condemned Russia for the massacres in Ukraine?
@@user-xs8vr5yr4z lol, you don't want to start comparing numbers when it comes to people killed throughout history between Armenia and Turks.
@@user-xs8vr5yr4z you seem like a Azerbaijan nationalist. All countries have killed people. Condemn Armenia for what? No countries you mentioned are currently in conflict except russia so condemn for what? I'm not talking about Azerbaijan being condemned so what's the point of bringing this different thing?
@@EdMcF1 correct
No, because the next prime minister will undo it all and Azerbaijan has no issue launching another invasion. I was living in Armenia until the end of June. On the ground, the PM is very unpopular and a lot of people call for war basically.
that your hope, isnt it İvan?
Mr. Ker-Lindsay:
Do all those pictures depicting negotiations between Armenia and Azerbaijan with Antony Blinkin in the middle bother you? They should.
Mr. Blinkin’s performance as US Secretary of State over the past 3.5 years has been nothing more than abysmal: He helped foment the wars in Ukraine and Gaza and has been stoking enmity with China over Taiwan. He has zero diplomatic credibility. This leads one to ask: What is Mr. Blinkin doing “mediating” between Armenia and Azerbaijan? How is this in the interest of the United States?
A study of a map of the region will tell you what Mr. Blinkin is up to. Having lost the proxy war with Russia in Ukraine, the US is looking to open another front from which to project power against Russia. The US wants to resolve the Armenia/Azerbaijan conflict so that Armenia can join NATO and the US can establish a military base on Armenian territory. From there, the US can and would install missiles that can attack not only Russia, but Iran as well. Since the Chinese “Belt and Road” initiative runs through Azerbaijan, the US can use a NATO base in Armenia to interdict Chinese shipping lanes that run through Azerbaijan and the Caspian Sea.
THAT is what Mr. Blinkin is up to in Armenia. You can rest assured that Vladimir Putin, Xi Jinping and Iran’s Supreme Leader have something significant to say about Mr. Blinkin’s machinations in the region.
You need to address that issue in any discussion of “peace” negotiations in the South Caucuses.
Peace is not enough. They must love and help each other.
and you need to help with that
I wonder what would be the role in any peace negotiations of the Karabakh Armenians who have left the region since Azerbaijan retook it. My understanding is that there are hardly any Armenians left. I was travelling in the region back in 2008, and the place definitely had an intensely Armenian feel to it at the time, partly a result of the war in the 1990s. I understand that the region was ethnically more mixed during Soviet times. What will happen now? Is the return of the Armenian civilians to their homes a realistic perspective, or will the towns and villages be repopulated with Azerbaijanis?
The refugees generally say that they want to go back, but they also say that they wouldn't go back under Baku's control. This is simply an impossible request. Considering that there are no strong leaders for the Karabakh Armenians--the final government was pushed into power by Moscow just to sign a document marking the end of the Republic of Artsakh, it's most likely that the refugees will be sidelined in any future agreements.
Nagorno-Kharabakh was always overwhelmingly Armenian, the surrounding regions were mixed.
Did you get worried about 1.5M Azeris when they were forced out from their houses in 92 by Armenians? or kil##ed in Hocali Massacre?
@@user-nk5qf4nm5p that number keeps going up by the day it seems.
700k Azeris were expelled from Armenia and Artsakh,
500K Armenians were expelled from Azerbaijan.
Between 200 and 600 were killed in khojaly, while it is a tragedy for sure, it could have easily been avoided had the azeris stopped using Khojaly to Shell Stepanakert.
Go spread your misinformation elsewhere.
@@Harut4 Very similar to your 1,5M number isnt it? You dont even open your state sources, dont accept other countries records and dont wanna hear what the Turkish records say either. Now after a century stuck between two Turkic states and all you do is crying.
I've been very impressed with the leadership of Armenia now that they are less reliant on Russia. Pashinyan seemed like a lacking leader for foreign affairs for a good while, but has taken this resolution seriously.
We may see permanent peace and genuine rapprochement. And this is only because Pashinyan and Yerevan are willing to compromise with Baku, because Aliyev wasn't coming to that level of the table.
Thanks. I completely agree. It takes an incredibly brave leader to take the steps that he has. But I think that many ordinary Armenians, as much as they feel the pain of losing Nagorno-Karabakh, want to move on. It will be interesting to see how this plays out. Will Azerbaijan go for it?
(But the way, I am trying out a new policy of giving members the first view of new videos. What do you think?)
what gives you to think so? Nothing has changed institutionally in Armenia: Armenia is a member of the Russian-led CSTO and EEU.. Armenia actively helps Russia to bypass sanctions. Armenia refused to meet with Aliyev in the latest meeting in Oxford. Dont full yourself! Yerevan's rhetoric is nothing else than smoke screen to help Russia to bypass sanctions, and to take advantage from the Russian-Ukrainian war and Russian-West conflict to get as much financial support from the West as possible. At the same time, wait and see what is the outcome of the conflict for Russia, because Putin proposed to Pashinyan to not hurry and leave the signing the peace treaty for the next generations. That is what Pashinyan tries to do.... Armenia will not change Russia for the EU, because it is economy 90% depends on Russia's finance. Russia owns the most of the Armenian economy.
@@JamesKerLindsayinteresting... I am sure Putin also "feels pain" when thinking of returning Crimea to Ukraine. Shall he keep it? Your false "sympathy" to an agressor is terrifying. I'd expect of a professional to think of concequences of such emotionality towards occupants of a soveregn territories of neighbors.
@@user-xs8vr5yr4z You can institutionally be part of something but change your policies just like Hungary is part of the EU and NATO but actively goes against collective interests.
Also Armenia isn’t actively helping Russia bypass sanctions, there might be a few companies trying to do this but the government has actually taken active steps to prevent this.
The same cannot be said about Azerbaijan which send tons of Russian gas via Turkey and helps Russia bypass sanctions and gain billions in revenue.
Armenia’s largest trading partner is Russia and they receive a lot of their gas from Russia also but they are diversifying both their economy and gas supplies just like they reduced their defense dependence on Russia.
And finally it is Azerbaijan which refuses to sign a deal, Armenia has said let’s sign a deal based on territorial integrity and opening borders but obviously the dictatorship in Baku wants no peace.
@@skyisthelimit4554 cry my boy
"Historically inhabited by Armenians" and 10 million Azerbaijanis where ethnically cleansed from Karabakh. The Armenian population of Karabakh was 120k so who can tell me the the ratio of 1milloon: 120k
Entire population of Azerbaijan today is 10 mln. And you state that there were another 10 mln of Azeris in a small NK region in late 80-s? What do you smoke? Azeris are so eager to spread lies that they don't even bother to make them look believable...
@@taartog It’s a fact that Armenians have historically inhabited Karabakh. There’s several evidence showing 1000s of years worth of presence. It only became Azeri territory due to Russia readjusting the borders which this video also confirms. Also 10 million is not an accurate number is it. 700k Azeris lived around districts around Karabakh that fled. Get your facts straight
Which is fewer than 100,000 Armenians. So now we feel sorry for the 100,000 Armenians who left in their cars of their own free will, while 700,000 Azerbaijanis were brutally displaced, walking on foot under the guns. While people speak nonsense, Baku did everything that was on their agenda. Now, cry 😢
Ten million? 😂 dude there aren’t even 10 million people in your whole country. What in God’s name are you talking about?
Also, the displaced Azeris mostly came from the surrounding regions around Artsakh that Armenia seized when it won the first war in the 90s, and from Armenia proper. Very, very few came from the then Autonomous Oblast of Nagorno Karabakh.
Professor, I was told that when Cyprus' turn came in the parade of Nations of the Opening Ceremony, BBC commentator commented about Kulichenko's father and his business interests 😂😂
Tx Prof. for a reasoned & balanced narrative of another convoluted historical dispute. Hopefully a long term peaceful outcome will prevail 🙏🏻 I visited Armenia last month so found this quite timely. Hope to revisit soon & include the wider region (daily flights Larnaca/Yerevan 😊).
One side keeps giving and one side keeps asking for more.
That's what happens if you illegally occupy another's land for 30 years. When he gets strong enough he comes for revenge. Armenia is a failed state and boogeyman of caucasus, they should start building up relations with their neighbours. They still have territorial claims over Turkey for example which generates nothing but anger.
This "peace" is exactly like the peace that Russia wants with Ukraine but since the West doesn't really give a damn about Armenia, on the contrary, they support Azerbaijan because of cheap gas, peace is a good thing here. Absolutely love the double standard. Also, the people in the comments claiming Pashinyan is a good leader are incredibly naive and I'm being very, very nice when using that word. Pashinyan is a disaster, just like Saakashvili was for Georgia, Armenians lost territory, lost their sovereignty, their dignity, lost everything under him.
This was inevitable because of the corrupt Armenian leadership previously running the country. They did nothing to improve the economy or armed forces and relied on Russia for too heavily. Pashinyan is now trying to pivot towards the west and salvage the disaster that was created by the previous presidents. Although he has made significant mistakes, there haven’t been any better alternatives so far.
@@xunqianbaidu6917 Yes, I will definitely listen on this topic to an Azeri who has no problem wiyh ethnic cleansing.
@@MMerlyn91 I am not an Azeri, but I will give you my 2 cents.
1. Armenia has had 30 years time to bring a peace settlement while being able to dictate the terms. It failed to do so because the leadership back then (which was almost entirely composed of individuals from Artsakh) saw no reason to settle the dispute and wanted to keep all the captured territories. Unfortunately they misjudged the whole picture, as Azerbaijan was able to gain the edge eventually due to its natural resources. Armenia has been warned years before their losses that Azerbaijan will eventually tip the scales in their favor.
2. The West has its own issues right now, and one of the main issues, especially in Europe, is energy dependency on Russia. Everyone is now seeking alternative energy providers and Azerbaijan is one of them, whether we like it or not. Also, technically speaking Armenia is still a CSTO member, so an enemy of the West. Now I know the Armenian position in relation to Ukraine is far more nuanced, but at the end of the day we are at war with Russia and as of right now, you are a Russian ally.
3. Pashinyan at the beginning tried to maintain the poisoned apple left by Kocharyan/Sargsyan but that eventually became untennable and now he is adopting the only way out of this. A peace settlement, even on unfavorable terms, that would prevent Azerbaijan to invade Armenia in the future. Artsakh is lost. Forever. You will need to come to terms with this and make do with what you have. Because if you don't, you might risk losing far more than just Artsakh. The Azeri military right now is capable of conducting deep military offensives and is able to take and control more land. And unfortunately, in the neighborhood where you are in, you don't really have allies willing to go to war for you. Russia didn't give a damn and it will not give a damn anymore once you are out of CSTO. Who will you count on? Iran? There is no guarantee the Ayatollah will come to your aid.
@@Kalimdor199Menegroth First of all, "we" are not in war with Russia. Ukraine is. It's an important distinction that many warmongers or naive people don't make. We support Ukraine, but we're not at war with Russia. Two, Azeris can and will still invade Southern Armenia regardless of whatever "peace" they may sign, unless Armenia somehow gets into NATO.
Armenia did not lose territory, but if u keep continuing believe the idea that Armenia should not stick the peace of whatever you call then they will lose territory and then teardrop and roaring doesn’t bring back anything but sadness for Armenia
It is really interesting to see that some assume Azerbaijan is not interested in the durable peace, while it was Azerbaijan who proposed the comprehensive peace agreement in the first place (in 2021). Moreover, how does a successful border delimitation as a result of negotations (!) not count towards a great achievement for the sake of peace?
I think that if the connection between Nahcivan and Azebajcan is provided properly (maybe with mutual land exchange), the permanent peace could be posssible. This region should be normalized and these neighbour countries should be able to trade freely between each other. Thus, Armenia can get a good economy with the region. And this can also help for Turkey's and Azerbajcan's economy too.
Karabakh was NEVER Armenian! “Nagorno” was created by Russians in early USSR - that is a Russian word! It was artificially carved out of the larger Karabakh region to grant compactly living Armenians (who were settled here by Russians in 1828!) an autonomy in order to control Azerbaijan! All this BS scheme is now ruined and Russia is out of Azerbaijan. Bye 👋
Karabagh was ALWAYS ARMENIAN.
When Azerbaijan and Armenia approached peace, the European Peace Fund intervened and the American military began military exercises in Armenia. In April 2022, Russia and Ukraine signed a peace treaty, but then B. Johnson arrived and sent Ukraine to war. (video ) - Армения не хочет воевать, но Запад толкает страну в пропасть
Thanks Prof for the material. This video mainly is good, but still mainly reflects Armenian centric views. You mentioned Pashinyan's efforts on peace settlement, but it was him who ignited tension early in his presidency by his statement "Karabagh is Armenia and dot ". Azerbaijan had no choice but to retake it lands back by force. Regarding the Azerbaijan demand on Constitutional change is quite a fair point. What I'm surprised about is that you are generally supporting Armenian sided comments under your video, while strongly disagreeing with opposite views.
Thanks. The comments I tend to agree with are in fact the ones that accept that Armenia needs to make peace. What’s really interesting here is that there aren’t that many saying otherwise! That’s why you’re not seeing me disagree much with Armenians. This should tell you a lot about the mood in Armenia. Likewise, I am very supportive of Azerbaijani comments calling for peace. But what I am also seeing is a lot of those comments taking a tough position, hence my disagreement. Overall, this rather confirms the point I am making. To many outsiders, Armenia now seems more willing to pursue peace than Azerbaijan. This is merely an observation. But I would be delighted to be proved wrong. Let’s see if President Aliyev can deliver.
@@JamesKerLindsay: Thanks for the comment Prof. There are latest developments which show strong doubts in the fairness of Armenia towards peace talks.
First, Pashinyan rejected the meeting with Aliyev planned in London during the European political Summit by some vague excuses.
Secondly, Aliyev has officially invited Pashinyan to Azerbaijan for COP29 which is going to take place in Baku in November. But, no reaction from the Armenia side yet.
These moments also should be considered while evaluating peace intentions of both sides.
To me the situation really feels like Azerbaijan will be the one not honoring any peace agreements. The prospect of controlling the Zangezur Corridor seems to be very tempting to them, and there are frequently conferences attended by cabinet officials and members of the ruling party calling for a Republic of Western Azerbaijan/Irevan... And given the need that Armenia is currently only in the beginning stages of connecting closer to France militarily and no longer cooperate with Russia, they're lacking security guarantees.
Meanwhile Azerbaijan is also flexing a lot of soft power and is antagonizing France, likely BECAUSE it started supporting Armenia. I'm worried.
Now imagine the situation of Armenia-much smaller territory, no resources, no oil, smaller population....
@Vaati1992 Your concerns seem one-sided. Azerbaijan has consistently honored peace agreements and seeks regional stability. The Zangezur Corridor is about restoring regional connectivity and cooperation, not about territorial ambitions. Conferences discussing historical and cultural topics should not be conflated with official policy.
As for Armenia's alliances, it's their sovereign choice, but it doesn't justify neglecting peace processes or international norms. Azerbaijan's diplomatic efforts, including interactions with France, aim to balance regional interests and should not be misinterpreted as antagonism. Let's focus on facts and genuine efforts for peace.
@@tensx373 You sound like a Azeri government shill. How much do they pay you?
Why were you not worried for 30 years while Armenia was keeping 20% of Azerbaijan's territory under its bloody occupation?
@Bekir_Pasha because Artsakh was exercising its right of self-determination
I hope there will be peace for all. The past must be the past
Because of a complex process at the UN, the next global climate change meeting, COP29, will be held in Azerbaijan. Perhaps, with the world's attention focused on a country that most people have never heard of, the climate meeting can be a stimulus to encourage the U.S. to provide the outside pressure that Professor James is calling for.
As an Iranian Azeri, I consider Azerbaijan as a major danger in the region. If Azerbaijan goes too far, Iran won't tolerate. Azerbaijan has tried to instigate rebellions in Azerbaijan Province for several years now. Iran isn't Russia when it comes to Armenia.
said the Iranian agent
Iranian bot spotted
Perfectly normal comment yet people calling you a bot. It’s obvious where they are from
Dont call yourself Azeri you are Persian or Armenian
Well i have many azeri/iranian friends from there. Never heard such a statement 😮
Thank you for your video, you're one of a few who speak on Armenia and Azerbaijan. I was saddened to see that Israel is a blindspot for you (it was obvious in the videos you posted about Israel). I wish I could provide you with a better understanding on that conflict.
It would be helpful to mention ethnic cleansing and that Azerbaijan, in violation of agreements, is still holding Armenian POWs and other illegally detained/kidnapped persons. And they are subjected to torture and most degrading treatment. No "peace" (I don't believe any agreement will be signed) is possible until those people are released.
Thanks. There was a lot to tackle. I did mention the Armenian POWs. On the ethnic cleansing, I covered this in another video. th-cam.com/video/qd7ezvCtIYg/w-d-xo.htmlsi=jQemQeC39M8W6gle
@@JamesKerLindsay Thank you very much for your reply and for the link. There is a statement of yours I find very difficult to accept, Professor. You say that just because NK was inernationally recognised as the art of AZ it could pretty much whatever it wanted. Why wasn't Miloshevich allowed to do the same in Kosovo then? It basically means that int'l law is just a charade that is applied only when it suits powerful players to further their interests or to weaken their opponents. Just because AZ, at this moment in time was useful to European energy needs and to Israeli plans against Iran and whatever else, it was allowed to get away with so many crimes absolutely scot free.Not nice.
*apologies for typos*
@@augustazoe2844 Thanks. In fact, I touched on this in my recent video on Serbia and Russia. Many Serbs argue the same. Why can Ukraine retake its territory, but Serbia couldn’t.
th-cam.com/video/PdiSU9-Fge4/w-d-xo.html My only answer is that it was tied up in the context of the era. International patience had run out with Milošević after the wars of the early 1990s, when it’s worth remembering that he paid little attention to the territorial integrity of Croatia and Bosnia. However, more generally, I was actually opposed to Kosovo’s unilateral declaration of independnce because I felt that it did raise very serious legal problems that others would exploit, as we are seeing now.
@@JamesKerLindsay Thank you. It's obvious that international community has a lot of patience when it comes to Aliyev, simply because it suits their current interests. All the talk about "rules based order", "values" etc is nothing but talk. R2P was ignored in this case as well. Which, I'm afraid proves my point that int'l law is only applied when it suits interests of poweful players. Thus it stops being a law and is only an instrument to be used arbitrarily whenever it's beneficial to those who have means of enforcing it.
As a pacifist all my adult life this comes as fantastic news .
I've never been more hopeful of a final peace agreement as this .
Aliyev has pledged major investments in Armenia and considering the dire economic state of Armenia pashinyan is all too willing to listen .
My understanding is that the offices of both leaders have had countless meetings since the end of hostilities .
I think these meetings have been brokered by Russia which has a vested interest in both countries .
In the 21 century no neighboring countries should be at war with each other , have we not learned from history .
The benefits are just too great to ignore and both leaders understand it's a win win for both sides .
PS professor you may want to take a look at the tensions on the Congo Rwanda border , Congo accuses Rwanda of siding with the m23 rebels who are causing havoc in the country .
Yes Prof should make a video on the Congo Rwanda conflict. I am especially disturbed why Rwanda is espousing a conflict on its border, although Rwanda is progressing in peace. But I am fearful this mentality of interfering in neighboring countries will lash back. Please, Professor tells us why Rwanda is being so reckless??
@thought605 Thanks. I did a video on Rwanda and Congo last year: th-cam.com/video/B5v2QiIFhmA/w-d-xo.htmlsi=jqhosdSrB1SoxUsG But I will certainly keep an eye on things.
Thanks, Roddy. I agree. I would like to think this could open a new era in relations. It would be especially beneficial for Armenia. However, I do worry that Aliyev is pushing things too far. He can afford to show a little magnanimity in victory.
@@JamesKerLindsayThanks a lit Professor
Since I joined your channel, I never miss any of your videos ❤
@@JamesKerLindsay: Prof, can you be more specific by saying Aliyev pushing things too far? Do you think asking for constitutional change for removing territorial claims to a neighboring country is too much?
Mount Ararat originally belonged to Armenia, not Iran or Turkey. "Ararat" is also a common and uniquely Armenian boys' name.
Also - what is the position of Iran with regard to maintaining its border with Armenia? And what are the broader implications shld that border disappear?
Because peace has been mysteriously sabotaged on multiple occasions in the 1990s, I wonder if a comprehenisve peace deal will be sealed , or if something will go wrong at the last moment. A lasting peace deal isn't really in Russia's or Iran's interest, because their leverage and influence over Armenia weakens. It would however be a great outcome.
Armenia indeed is in a difficult situation!
1- they don’t have natural resources Azerbaijan does.
2- they don’t have external backers as Azerbaijan get from Turkey and Israel.
3-Azerbaijan exports oil to Israel, allows Israel agents to operate in side Azerbaijan against Iran.
4- Turkey assist easing the effect of sanctions on Russia, in return Russia abandoned Armenia.
Pashinyan should never give away land in Armenia. Azerbaijan needs to respect the territory of proper Armenia and provide reparation for the 120,000 that were forced out by Aliyev.
history learn armenians fired 1.5 million azerbaijani-there is armenian in azerbaijan, but there is no single azerbaijani in armenia
@@albertbradley7820 Armenians want to live in peace. That is propaganda from the AZ government. Have you seen any Armenians in AZ. that live openly? Also, please read about the Baku pogrom, also known as the Baku massacres, that was a state-sponsored attack on the Armenian population of Baku, Azerbaijan SSR from January 12-19, 1990. We know Armenians are not safe in Baku, which started the adversarial stance.
Armenia WILL pay reparations for millions of displaced azerbaijanis, and 30 years of occupying int-lly recognized land via Hague.
@@teachcare888 I demand compensation for Azerbaijanis forcibly removed from Yerevan
@@Fididesp2 So aggressive, outright lies and yet so typical!
So far, Azerbaijan's demand is to change constitution for peace and I believe it is understandable. With such constituion, even the peace agreement is not constitutional in Armenia.
Azerbaijani here. In Azerbaijan there is strong passion and believe in peace agreement. Most people here back the agreement if it is permanent and really works. We have two main problems not to sign the agreement. One is Armenian constitution which says Karabakh is part of Armenia, which should be changed. And Zəngəzur corridor which is very hard and controversial topic. I guess and hope Armenia will change the constitution for peace, and about corridor I think both countries should go compromise to each other. Finally, both countries’ population should demand peace, bc I think it is enough for both to kill each other for artificial Russian-made problem
As an Azerbaijani let me ask you, have you read the Armenian constitution? The Armenian constitution refers to the declaration of independence in 1991, which itself tacitly refers to Nagorno-Karabakh.
Do you know your own constitution specifically states that Azerbaijan is the legal successor to the Azerbaijan of 1918-1920. This implies that Azerbaijan has territorial claims against Armenia, because the Azerbaijan of 1918-1920 claimed much of Armenian land.
As for a corridor, would you agree to giving Armenia a corridor to the Caspian sea for example?
Are you also aware that Azerbaijan currently occupies 200 square kilometers of Armenian land and refuses to return the land, that the government destroys Armenian graveyards and converts old churches to mosques? That you still hold Armenian pows from 2020, I’m not even talking about the political prisoners.
It amazes me how easily people can be fooled by their governments. Both populations were fooled up to 2023. But now only Azeris are being fooled by their government.
@@strpet27 nope I did not read your constitution but I know there is a statement about Karabakh which should be changed. Because internationally it doesn’t belong to you and legally as well. Second about our constitution, there are a lot of things need to be changed in our constitution. But 1918-1920 Azerbaijan government did not claim any territory against Armenia, vice versa they declared that Yerevan could be given Armenia and we should recognize each other’s territory at that time. About destroying your graveyard and church, well u did the same things to us as well. How does that feel, I am not supporting it, but Karabakh Armenians should have thought before turning our mosque into pig farm or destroying our grave yards, so it is reciprocal. About Corridor, I guess you are not aware that we already agree Armenia can use our territory to connect to Russia and Iran, even Central Asian countries, as long as they treat like human being and not destroy or harm local people. finally let’s agree that we both ( Armenian and Azerbaijanis) were fooled by Russian, and they make us enemy. We need to get rid of. I believe creating mutual enemy like Russia will keep us more together and force us to solve the problem.
@@nihadasgerli3947 While I agree that there should not be animosity between us I have knowledge on this matter which I must share.
I already mentioned how the Armenian constitution refers to the declaration of independence dependence which indirectly refers to Nagorno-Karabakh and if you think this is an issue then your constitution is also an issue because Azerbaijan in 1920 claimed Syunik and Gegharkunik just as Armenia in 1920 claimed Nakhijevan and Nagorno-Karabakh.
Our government stated many times and signed agreements that we recognize Azerbaijan’s territorial integrity and handed over 4 villages in April this year. But your government refuses to hand over occupied Armenian villages and heights.
Also Armenians didn’t destroy mosques, they invaded and took over but never destroyed mosques. Yet the first thing your government does after taking back the region is destroy buildings with Armenian heritage and convert churches to mosques.
As for the corridor Armenia says you can use my land to transit but it is Armenian land but your government want’s it to be controlled by Russians.
And finally there are still Armenian pows from 2020 in prisons yet Armenia returned all Azeri pows.
So we can both say nice stuff like how good it will be if we make peace and remove Russian influence from the region but the truth is our country has a Russian military base and your country is improving relations with Russia every year.
The fact is if your government accepted mutual constitutional change and opening of borders without corridor logic we could have a peace agreement signed tomorrow.
Reflecting on the actions of the Armenian leadership 30 years ago, it’s evident that initiating a conflict with an oil-rich neighbor like Azerbaijan has had significant long-term consequences. The plight of 700,000 Azerbaijani refugees, forced to leave their homes under dire conditions, remains a humanitarian crisis, in some places even genicide, that the international community cannot ignore.
In contrast, the departure of 100,000 Armenians, who left relatively safely, highlights the differing experiences of displaced populations in this conflict. Over the past three decades, the choices made by some within the Armenian community have been controversial, including the mismanagement of cultural heritage sites. Allegations of war crimes and the current detentions in Baku are stark reminders of the ongoing repercussions of the conflict.
The situation underscores the need for a comprehensive and fair resolution that acknowledges the suffering of all affected communities and promotes lasting peace in the region.
Just a guess but.... yes they can reach peace once Azerbaijan finishes taking whatever they want from Armenia.
It was a pure genocide what Azerbeidjan did, and nobody gave as much as peep. And what will be next? Make peace, which will be violated once Azerbeidjan wants more, or wants it all.
It would help Armenia opening borders on both sides and economy boost
Armenian is plotting to get them back, nobody just forgets this.
Armenian minority in Karabakh not only committed genocides and ethnic cleansing against Azerbaijanis, they also took the Armenian state in Yerevan hostage and killed the prime minister who wanted make peace with Azerbaijan in 1998, in return for passage of Azerbaijan gas and oil pipelines from Armenia . They installed two presidents backed by Russia , and that regime finally ended with Pashinian’s revolution. In any case, west supported Armenian aggression and terror against Azerbaijan
Եվրոպացիների , ռուսների համար հայի արյունը դարեր շարունակ առք ու վաճառքի առարկա է ։ Այսօր նույնը շարունակվում է ։
Azerbaijan is an authoritarian state influenced by its larger sibling Turkish state to its eastern flank. It wants to complete the Armenian Genocide.
And... What stops Azerbaijan from, you know, seeing that peace is more materially beneficial for them?
Your xenophobia stinks.
if thats true do something about it thn
I'm tired of this talking point from the pro Armenian side. Both people's hands are coated in blood and have perpetrated ethnic cleansing. It's time for Turkey, Azerbaijan, and Armenia to all admit their mutual sins and move on.
repeating lies makes them not become facts, your hate on turks stinks
Правильно уже устали от бегства наши армияански салдати мы бежим Ани нас не могут догнать чуть ми адахнем не будет больше вай вай вай вай
Armenia has a direct territorial claim to Azerbaijan in their constitution, citing annexing Karabakh to Armenia proper as a national goal.
Until that removed, there would be no peace deal
Professor, being not sure in which field you are being specialized (you claim quite a wide area of your interests), but when coming to details, and although your story looks much more neutral comparing to what corrupt politicians release (Trump's diagnosis), still the excursions to history and descriptions of events are hugely distorted. Firstly, the first war was with participation of Russian troops backing Armenia. Russia was interested to have this ever glowing conflict assuming keeping the region under its control. Secondly, the war in 2020 was initiated by Armenia under the slogan 'new wars, new territories'. Yes, Azerbaijan was prepared, but it does not correspond to your statements reflecting events. Still, all the way during the war, the weapons were supplied to Armenia by Russia via Iran. If you would care to read Russian and Armenian sources, you would reveal an opposite to your stories picture. Or, if you would scroll Google earth to the timing before 2020, as an intelligent man you would be shocked to see the degree of devastation of the territories. Particularly, if you compare these events with what is going in Gaza, Azerbaijan was struggling with occupants (unlike events in Gaza). Azerbaijan does not want another attempt to occupy its territories which are actively being promoted in Armenia. Anyway, will have to leave it to your conscience.
I have covered this conflict in many other videos. This was a brief summary of the conflict to explain why the peace talks are in the position they are. It wasn’t meant to go into all the specifics.
@@JamesKerLindsay Why then you do not call the USA 'a historical American Indians' territory' or California 'a historical Mexican territory'? or maybe you do it in all your speeches? I refer to many distorted things in this your presentation. I just call you to be correct and immaculate in your presentation as an intelligent man, not to render this to the state of being void.
Ukraine should learn the lesson from Armenia
I tend to agree with many other commenters that Armenia or at least Pash (at his own detriment) is acting in good faith hoping to just end it (or at least shut the Aliyevs up finally), this obviously is not and will not go down great in Armenia for him but he obvipuzly knows that and we'll have to see if any agreement is kept in place in Yerevan. However, i think on the Turk side (both Ankara and Baku) it is quite clear that there is no such faith, good or bad, just opportunistic maxiamalist calculations, which objectively is good for them short term and in land long term, but in terms of lasting peace i do not beleive they want it really, peace means finality and finality means no further gains can be made. Am i being cynical? Yes, but humans are mostly calculating greedy machines collectively and in this case the ongoing nature of this conflict coupled with both nationalist and relious elements gives me no hope if im being honest. I want to be optimistic for both sides but i just dont see it happening long term. Great video as always, a nice watch with a morning coffee from the Big durian
Thanks so much! I agree. But I think that Azerbaijan is missing the bigger picture here. This is a really good opportunity to show magnanimity and generosity - if only to appeal to an international audience in Europe and the US.
Anyway, I hope all is well at your end. I have a strange love-hate thing with durian. It is truly awful, but it’s so disgusting that I have grown to rather like it! 😀
Azerbaijan just today threatend all out war against Armenia. Important to note Azerbaijan has been getting a unprecedented amount of military shipments from Isreal the past few months.
Just like their common neighbour 🇬🇪Georgia (an EU candidate), I really feel that it would be GREAT for both 🇦🇲Armenia & 🇦🇿Azerbaijan if they can apply for 🇪🇺EU (& possibly NATO) membership as they’re Western oriented secular democracies, will really be focused into development & mutual cooperation 🤝 rather than fighting between themselves over Artsakh/ Nagorno Karabakh as they're already in EU's 'Eastern Partnership' - just like their neighbour 🇬🇪Georgia has been applying recently & has even gained Candidate status.
As an example, 🇬🇷Greece has had tensions with its neighbours like 🇦🇱Albania, 🇲🇰North Macedonia & 🇹🇷Turkïye - but because they’re in the EU/ NATO, they have never become full conflicts in recent history. (Unlike post-Soviet 🇷🇺Russia-🇧🇾Belarus-🇺🇦Ukraine-🇲🇩Moldova-🇬🇪Georgia which are currently members of neither and have been in conflict in recent times).*
There is no place neither for Azerbaijan nor for Turkey in EU. We have enough problems with Turks in NATO
@@imcbocian Hold on there, mate, NATO needs the Bosporus.
To call Azerbaijan a "Western oriented secular democracy" is not really accurate.
You talk nonsense and only what suits you. Example according to declassified Russian archives, the Armenians were forced to come to this region after the Treaty of Turkmanchai. Which proves that Armenians are not originally from this region
Indigenous people were evicted from their ancestral land by an oil-rich dictator, while the almighty US just watched it happen.😢