Why Tesla LEADS the Robot Revolution (Ep. 739)
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- เผยแพร่เมื่อ 8 พ.ย. 2023
- The most local inference + real world AI foundation model + data pipeline + humanoid robots designed for manufacturing at scale.
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After a long dry period without Dave, it’s so nice to have him back!!!
Glad to see you again Dave. Hope all is going well for you and your family.
Always happy to see your videos Dave! Always wise and spot on with your analysis! Thank you.
Really strong analysis, a proper deep dive. One of my favourite TH-camrs
Welcome back Dave. You were really missed!
Great to see you back. You've been missed. Hope all is well.
I always like the fact that Dave focuses on stuff that many other youtubers don't
Its hard to believe that we are now at a point where we see a future of humanoid robots in my lifetime.
It's Irobot bought to life after almost 2 decades, even the self driving evs so we can stop burning gas. That movie was prescient. 👍🏻😎
Are you two years old?
@@tatata1543 I'm old
@@salty_berserker_channel In that case, forget it, it ain’t happening.
@@tatata1543 5-10 years. Ill be alive. Even 15
I hope your wife is doing alright. My partner has almost finished her chemotherapy, and the diagnosis was 3 days before your video. Give us an update on how that’s going🙂
Let’s goooooo Dave is back!!!!!!!!
glad to see u back! we all miss you Dave. Hope family is ok
Great to see your posting. As always, informative interesting and to the point. Our best to you and your family.
Thankks for your insightful comments regarding the importance of local inference and pointing out that Tesla is in the right place and right time! So good to see you and praying for your family!
Good to hear from you Dave. Take care
Dave Lee. The man, the myth, the LEGEND! So good to see you. Best wishes.
Humanoid robots will also be the ultimate first mover advantage prize in human history. First mover ramps production and gets scale of production advantage, but also uses the robots to make robots, and those robots learn how to make robots faster and more efficiently, and then robots sold to the public also learn from experience, so having the first 50,000 robots in the hands of the public means your robots are simply way better at doing most things than the robots of anyone trying to follow you into the market. Data is king.
Lots of companies trying to compete with Optimus, but none with the finances, manufacturing expertise, compute power, data, or existing neural net programming of Tesla.
Hope things are going well for your family Dave.
Hey Dave. Hope all is well. Keeping you and your family in my thoughts.
Dave is Le back.
Spot on Dave! And Tesla has Elon who can and will make those difficult billion dollar decisions that are so important to move quickly, ie Grok. He understands the bottlenecks ( silicon then transformers) and moves incredibly fast, both capitol and talent. He promotes missions we all believe in and employees stand behind. Elon triumphs over hate every day and yet he still thrives. He’s not crazy but 10 steps ahead! Truth is with him and synergy is compounding.
You are spot on Dave. I’m praying for you and your family!🙏
Well, first, Elon IS crazy as well….”but that isn’t important right now…”. It’s not just that Elon makes quick, major decisions; but that he doesn’t buy into the Sunk Cost Fallacy. If a major course correction on his previous decision needs to be made, he makes that just as quickly. That’s the real , almost in-human difference.
Dave, I hope your wife is doing well and thanks for the great, on the important subject video.
Glad to see you again! Always well worth insight and thoughts.
hope everything is well with you and the family, Dave!
Thank you Dave
Dave, thanks so much for sharing your wisdom with us.
Hang in there Dave we are pulling for your family…
Love these breakdowns Dave!
You're a great observer. Thanks 👍
I agree with you that miniaturization of the inference hardware is going to be hugely valuable. I would love to see hardware 5B in a handheld configuration merge with a starlink cell phone so that we could put FSD onto any mobile platform.
Hey DAVE😀 missed you, glad to have you back❤
Outstanding, Dave. Big picture view. Watched it twice! Thank you, SoCalFreddy
Dave
Love your presentation.
Welcome back, Dave. Nice to see you posting again :)
Yes. Take the concept of local inference to the roleplaying game environment. Put all the Dungeons and Dragons rules and creatures and monsters and plants and novels and player experiences available into a 'massive' collection of linked databases. On the one hand, what a great resource for writing new stories and adventure modules. On the other hand, can AI actually replace the Gamemaster? Should be all sorts of fun exploring the possibilities.
Dave you are the Goat
DAVE YOU NEED TO PUT ON SOME SUNCREEEN!!! PROECT YOUR SKIN!!! YOUR HEALTH IS PRIOIRTY :)
Good to see you Dave. Hope the family is doing well.
You’re the man, Dave
Sending goodvibes to u and ur family Dave. (Left a like)
It appears that Optimus is being built from the ground up. The only thing they are “reusing” is the FSD system. Although, some modifications are required with it.
Great to see you Dave! I hope all is going well for you and your wife first, and the kids too!
Nice analysis, love you Dave.
Thank you for your light and kindness from Spain!!
Thank you Dave for love and beautiful vi❤de🌏o🫠
Great analysis Dave! To that I would add that Elon has a world-wide satellite communications network (Starlink) to provide the ability to cost-effectively connect the IE-driven robots for management and control purposes. Also I would add Elon may be one of the top 5 most intelligent people on the planet. And he can see the future better than almost anyone - just look at his EV foresight over the past 10 years. Finally, he is unmatched in his creative ability, problem-solving skills and instincts for building ultra-high performance organizations. Tesla is already years ahead of everyone in development of humanoid AI-driven robots. Clearly this lead is only going to expand.
Welcome back, I think when tesla come out with a video where Optimus bake a cake successfully, Tesla stock would be at the moon!
Thanks! Great to see you.
Fantastic presentation, so informative. When do you think factory level Optimus bots will start being mass produced?
Thanks Dave ...we missed you
Thank you for the incisive, yet simple breakdown of the future of AI around us.
Take care Dave and best wishes from my family.
Great and insightful update....I wonder if there will be a future update of the Tesla bot , where upon a request, the bot turns and says "I'm sorry Dave, I'm afraid I cannot do that...."? Hehe, a reference to Hal in 2001: A space Odyssey
Thank you!
Thanks Dave
Hey Dave great video thanks! I hope your wife is doing good 🙏
Good to see you. Thx. ❤
Great to see you again. Best wishes!
I need a FSD equivalent inference engine in my desktop, laptop, tablet, and cellphone, or maybe I will just use grok.
Oh i missed you Dave!
Thanks for the amazing video, David, as always.
6:37 You don't necessarily need it to run locally. Let's consider an environment inside the enterprise's headquarters. Equipped with the most advanced Wi-Fi speeds, a sleek humanoid robot can utilize thousands of GPUs in the cloud. It can also integrate basic processes on the go. By feeding a real-time camera to GPT-5 and providing some instructions, it becomes autonomous and capable of exploring the world around it. This is essentially AGI, and it's already happening today in these corporations. Imagine what next year will bring.
You mean Tesla can lose the Robotics race?
Sounds like Musk is stitching together synergies of all these companies which will be linked and able to communicate.
It’s amazingly perfect when you think about it
@@steviesdc-tv9013 there is a binding brilliance within the symmetry of it.
A very overlooked point. Energy conservation is an after thought for most of the robotics companies.
Please give your estimated time-line for Optimus completing meaningful, cost effective, complex tasks, like installing solar roofs....or even something like putting together an IKEA computer desk from just the instruction provided in the box.
Thanks David. How many bots can Tesla build in a yr. and in a smaller footprint. It will be exciting to see!
By 2035
100M/yr
Optimus robots at scale is worth more than the EV car business
Hey Dave, are you sure the local inference chip is the fundamental differentiator? From what I understand, a GPU off the shelf can do the same thing. Yes, the power consumption and cost might be higher, but if your model is better, or your manufacturing is cheaper, I think the chip doesn’t matter as much, especially if the cost of energy drops dramatically
Would still love to see you interview Elon
Thanks Dave! I’m sure you caught the Boston Dynamics CEO on Yahoo finance a few days ago… Let’s just say that there’s room for improvement…
do have a nice day…. dave…. 🎉
What about Apple Silicon?
Man, fsd hardware it’s not that hard to replicate, the other points are somewhat true, but you are missing the big one: even if it will play out like you predict, expect the first real humanoid robot with proper interaction with reality to be at least 15 years from now. Before we will have robots doing some specific task in factories similar to what it’s already out there.
Compute per Watt is a metric most people aren't looking at. It is crucial for robots.
Boston Dynamics is so far ahead of Tesla in robot technology they will never catch them. Elon also doesn't understand AI at all.
It makes me wonder if DOJO is soon(ish) to be obsolete?!?!
Imo don't sleep on Apple's M3, A16 etc. They can run hundreds of token per second of LLM.
Could they put a Dojo chip in a bot? Or a mini version. Would that be useful?
Am new to Dave Lee’s channel. I’d like to know the best way to invest in Elon’s Ai Robots. Am very excited at the prospect! Is it by investing in Tesla directly? Or in another company he has or uses? Am not sure how to even word it. Any help would be appreciated! I will check back to see responses and thank you in advance!
Last Tesla Q call - how many robots will be deployed in the Tesla factories in 2024 - answer - it will do balet or something similar
Dave great to see you back!!! we missed you so much!!
For real. Dave is the man, really miss his videos. I hope more podcasts come soon!
Great talk and very interesting talk, really makes you think. but it seems like your leaving a few players out when you say "no has a robot like Tesla, one example is Boston Dynamics. They are even selling one robot (named stretch) that seams quicker when handling 50Lb boxes then Tesla bot and learns from its environment. Yes Tesla bot looks and interacts human like, but Boston Dynamics is quicker and is for sale to companies right now. HOW long will it take for Tesla bot be for sale to any big companies? and will it take as long as cyber truck because we are all still waiting on that truck...
Boston robots are programmed. Tesla bots are not.
It's nice to see you Dave! Wish you and your family the best 🥰
One of Tesla's superpowers is its willingness to abandon one path to move to better one as soon as it makes sense. It threw out its coded FSD in favor of neural nets, it adapted in its manufacturing processes, it got rid of radar. Almost all other companies fall into the sunk cost fallacy and get stuck trying to make a poorly adapted technology work. I keep hearing about new and improved battery technologies that will be a Tesla killers. Nonsense. When an improved technology is ready for prime time, Tesla will be a first mover.
Hope all is well.
hey dave
Check out Nvidia Orin chips they are competing on specs.
Although I agree Teslas vertical integration will give them an incredible advantage
Dave, I haven't seen your videos in a while, for some reason TH-cam is not showing them to me. Just letting you know 🤷♂
You really can’t be sure of that.
NVIDIA's ORIN is the current Tesla mini AI computer equivalent which is already used in some Chinese electric cars (until Biden ban the sale on this too) however it would be great if Tesla would sell its mini AI computer separately too. NVIDIA is monopoly and world needs competition. Such mini low power AI computer would have so many use cases!!! Tesla could be the "new" NVIDIA, if they brave enough to make this step.
Good to hear and see you back Dave. Hope everything is ok w you and your family. Always appreciate your content
🎯🎯🎯
great Dave's back to talk nonsense, I missed this guys absurd crazy rants
I think Tesla will end up having 4 type of robots with 4 level of brain capacity. The first generation that they will market in 2025 will be used in their Gigafactories performing tasks that are routine and somewhat dangerous . The second generation will be able to do 10X more tasks than the first generation robots with more advanced hardware . The third generation robots will be able to perform in tasks in the real world outside of Gigafactories starting in fast food restaurants , hotels and security industries. The 4th generation of these robots will come in to homes and perform daily chores for people that the own them some time by the end of this decade a couple of years after tesla reaches FSD and start of their Robotaxi fleets in at least 5 states in the US. IMO
Wait, will it be Apple?
The winner for low cost NN hardware is Nvidia. It's either cuda cores or nothing at all
I've read that China is projecting humanoid robots by 2025 and is investing for same. Looks like just as with EV's its going to be a two player race.
Chinese companies are copycat
Great video, extremely informative. Thanks
Good to see you again, Dave. Great analysis. I hope your wife is doing better/well.
Welcome back David, we all missed you. You are looking better, but when you entered the core of your video you lighted up like a Christmas tree, and made me concentrate not to lose a single word of your very precious presentation, so well construed as to even make understand the extremely complex subject, to someone like me who has a problem in operating even his cell phone. I became a very strong God believer after a serious health problem, someone told me to have faith in God and do the very best I could with anyone that for any reason I came in contact with in my daily life. I took his advise and started to really believe in God supernatural power. Today after I went through every single page of the Holy Bible, and refreshing the reading in some of the most touching passages, as if by magic, my health problems have slowly simply totally disappeared without conventional medical help.( I am not suggesting to avoid conventional medicine) I can only assure you that God is real, powerful beyond your possible belief. He knows you as he knows every single soul on the planet, He has been aware of your health problem , He is willing to help you but you have to accept and believe in him. Do it and good luck. You are an exceptional very intelligent teacher. Thank you.
Agree 100% Blessings
Great analysis and presentation Dave
The post-mortem on Musks businesses will likely say that he failed financially by choosing to pursue technologies with enormous market potential but that required far more development costs than most people expected. Two notable examples are self-driving cars and AI-assisted personal robots. These are both technologies sure to be accepted in the mainstream at some future point, but both are proving to have many mare safety challenges than expected. The 'last mile' in these technologies is becoming the last 500 miles. Unless Musk can find some source of revenue (possibly from the profitable companies he owns?), we'll probably see a string of bankruptcies beginning with "X" which will fail for reasons other than excessive technology development time frames.
After You die, Your Optimus Robot will be You.
But the stock keeps tanking.