When Will China Invade Taiwan?
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- เผยแพร่เมื่อ 10 ส.ค. 2023
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Ahh so that's why the intro felt familiar.
so it's outdated lol
Taiwan is part of China. Imagine Azores not being part of Portugal as they are all ethnic Portuguese much like Taiwan are ethnic Han Chinese. I'll never understand the people of Taiwan who'd rather side with a genocidal nation known as the U.S versus their brothers. Just rightist logic I guess, a little bit like Ukraine.
Hawaii should be independent, not Taiwan.
@@danielcaldwell1110 ok "Daniel" "Caldwell" sounds super legit
I've been living in Taiwan all summer and the sharp increase in videos on Taiwan in the last 3 months has been noticeable at the very least
Propaganda financed by amurikens coming in nicely. Prepare for another war. Here in Europe we're fed with ameriken policy in our soil and I wish we became closer to the Chinese who have a proven record of being honorable.
As a South african I picked up the same tone over the last 2 years but the global lenses where kinda already on Taiwan before
It provides masturbation material for the anti-China brigade, and an easy way to gain views and likes.
🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣
You think Bidens weakness and compromise will not be exploited? I think pre 2024 election they kick it off... why was purchase of China's 2 first aircraft carriers purchased from Ukraine? Any U.S. involvement? Talking politicians or children of? I would be curious.
As a Taiwanese, I thank videos like these to raise awareness about our situation. I hope we never go to war.
Too easy for people without anything at stake to talk whatever shit they want just to sound smart. It's way more tougher to stay alive and prosperous while surrounded by a hostile "neighbor", along with an ambiguous, opportunist "friend".
If you want to see what Taiwanese people are up against, just go through the comment thread under this post. I hope yall have a good day, good life, and never need to face the possibilities of war.
Wish you peace and prosperity from Czech Republic
The only way to avert war is for the ccp to collapse... unfortunately or fortunately.
I believe in the One china Policy, But the "one China" should be Republic of China. Not Peoples Republic of China.
Don’t worry your fine China an amphibious assault in the modern day with cruise missiles and artillery would be suicide also they lack landing craft and if they tried to press their super tankers into service they would be sitting ducks.
@bruh_rick Do you think that they really cared about us Taiwanese?
Seeing how it goes, China has been threatening invasion and throwing red lines all over the place for decades now and they didn't invade.
But if the CCP says "We'll never invade we love Taiwan Taiwan is a country :)" that's when people should get real worried
If the people of Taiwan dare to declare an independent country, no one can stop it when it perishes, because it is too close to China and too far away from the United States, so it can be blocked and attacked at will.😂
台湾不是一个国家，甚至因为中国共产党他们被踢出联合国
This topic has been on my mind a lot and this channel has a really special perspective! Thanks from Utah for staying vigilant. :)
I don't think people realize how difficult Taiwan is to take.
do people realize how ez it would be to send Taiwan into the stone age?
Do you realize a salvo of missiles fired from China can make 2021 supply chain issue a trivial problem compared to chip shortage with Taiwan attacked?
China doesn't need to invade and conquer to hold the world hostage.
As difficult as it would be to suppress and pacify South-East Asia in order to enforce a blockade of the Malacca Straight
@@hwong1776For what benefit? The US and Taiwan both have contingency plans to destroy semiconductor plants and make them unusable when China invades.
If the Ukraine is anything to go by, the west will simply cut off banking in China like they did with Russia, and what happens next? War is lost.
@@hwong1776 You mean its easy to make Taiwan into like the current China?
That fake building for military exercises is the state equivalent of a woodoo doll
your channel n videos help me learned more about history thanks for your researched.
There's a well-known saying ' attacking Taiwan is less wiser than buying Taiwan, buying Taiwan is less wiser than deceiving Taiwanese and deceiving Taiwanese is less wiser than intimidating Taiwanese ' that is widely circulates in Chinese communities. It has been regarded as the best guiding principle by Chinese communists that subduing the enemy without real fighting and now they are committed to launching the cognitive battles and develop the nets of the collaborators in Taiwan.
Well, Chinese communist dictatorship has to be destroyed one way or another.
Smart. Took the US 60 years of outright aggression before they learned that one
China basically has nothing Taiwan wants in the context of becoming a new sate of China. How do you sell no democracy and censorship along with a fascist king? You don't at best you can try to undermine it but even then.
事实上作为一个中国人从来没有听过这句话 As a Chinese,I swear I had never heard of that😶
How's that been working for China? Taiwanese aren't intimidated by the Chinese...
A small correction about the party control timeline. While the DPP did win the presidential election (for the first time), the Kuomintang still had control over the legislature, heavily limiting the power of the DPP. You can see the difference in 2016 when they won both the presidency and the legislature and started doing actions they have been talking about for a long time.
At this point DPP are basically like KMT. DPP are too afraid to declare independence.
@@eruno_ So true. DPP kind of ditched Taiwan independence and went to take the ROC flag kind of becoming KMT under Chiang Chin-Kuo's days.
Where as KMT essentially devolved into CCP and are helping them spread propaganda everyday.
Sooner or later, the KMT will lose its control over the legislature too. Just mark my words.
@@willyang4487 The DDP has had the legislature since 2016. The gap closed a bit in 2020, but the DDP still has majority
This is just factually false. DPP has maintained control of the legislature (and all three branches of the central government) since 2016.
Super insightive video
This is an excellent video. Actual nuance in a TH-cam story.
It is an excellent video on China/Taiwan relationship, better than any other videos on youtube on this topic. But it is sitll missing an important part(likely intentionally): the role of US in this relationship.
It is quite clear China does not want a war, Taiwan does not want a war, but anyone with some intelligence can see the US is really wanting a war in the taiwan strait. US will not fight for Taiwan, it will give up Taiwan but will sanction China and isolate it from the world economy, like it did to Russia. it sees this as an opportunity to deter China from overtaking it as the most powerful country.
This is the reason you see all those war predictions, they really want it.
This is a really good video that offers a lot of valuable context and coolheaded analysis. A key factor it didn't discuss, however, was Hong Kong. Hong Kong was held up for a while as a model of how Taiwan could peacefully integrate without losing its democratic freedoms. One country two systems could easily become one country three systems, however, the brutal repression of Hong Kong has done a lot to deter Taiwanese interest in integration and put China on a path to either war or defeat.
Exactly this; NEVER trust communist countries.
It's not at all obvious what the actual situation in Hong Kong even is. Is your countries news able to give you a clear indication of what's going on in your own country? But then we trust western news to deliver accurate reporting on what's going on in a country that reportedly has a complete lockdown on information.
Care to elaborate on repression in HK? I'll like to know what media you learnt that from
By democratic freedom are you talking about the freedom to do as the U.S tells them to? Is that the democratic freedom, as archived and known thoroughly of what the foreign ameriken policy is?
Wow the China shills in the replies of a thoughtful comment I feel bad for you
let's hope this never happens
Sadly it's just a matter of when 💀 (We are so fucked.)
It would be funny tho!!
Don’t worry it won’t happen under my watch
@@josef7731we aren’t “f_cked 💀” there’s a difference in their hardware looking tough vs actually tough. Russia is a great example of that. Plus Chinas navy, Air Force, army, and rocket force, all work individually for some reason and not with each other. Use Ukraine as example, China would probably be worse too as they have no combat experience
hopefully Taiwan will surrender and there won’t be a damned war
I’m sick of seeing these charts showing Chinese vs US Navy fleet vessel counts. It’s not about numbers with ships it’s about tonnage and armaments😂
The biggest gap between China and the United States is the submarine, followed by aircraft carriers, destroyers such as combat ships, but the gap is the smallest, and even in the technical level is still ahead.
One issue tho is that military hardware and ammunition don't have an infinite shelf-life. If China is going to commit to such high levels of war material production they have to have a plan to use it, if not for just the sake of internal or regional defense which I find to be unlikely. Power projection on a worldwide level is not a cheap thing to undertake, neither is expending all branches of a countries armed forces simultaneously while investing in a space program, stealth fighter programs, propulsion research and drone warfare. One might say it's to increase foreign export sales but we all know the Chinese don't have a lot of customers lining up to buy their stuff.
One might also point out that China is pumping out unproven military hardware at an unsustainable rate, and without a solid plan to put any of it to real-world use would be a very bad investment. Yes, large militaries make a country look strong. It also makes a huge difference when it comes to who the military higher-ups want to be in charge of their nations economy and foreign policy. However no nation can print money from nothing, and no nation...not even one as dishonest towards outsiders as China...can just keep producing more and more military hardware that then ends up largely out of commission from a focus on production over maintainence because numbers are what gets the bonuses and praise. It's something that played a large role in the eventual downfall of the soviet union and if China doesn't backtrack it to some degree they're going to be in a similar boat sooner or later...assuming they don't invade Taiwan before all those shiny new tanks and destroyers rust away 1st.
身为中国人感觉你的担心很可笑，你根本不了解中国，更不了解中国军事，你的认知仅限于西方媒体告诉你的
U wrote too much. Less is more.
Excellent presentation with insight to the what ifs!
Taiwan is best used within China as a talking point to get people riled up with nationalism. It distracts from many domestic issues (housing, youth unemployment, 3 years of lockdowns, poverty, human trafficking, corruption/gangs affiliated with gov/police, etc.). Bringing up Taiwan and doing military drills shows the people the full might, resolve, and invincibility of the Chinese government, so people continue to have confidence in their rule. Yet each of those domestic systematic issues and the goal of Taiwan unification remain unsolved.
Do not get it wrong where I mentioned poverty and unemployment, China is the 2nd largest economy for a reason. However the CPC only needs its current between 3-500 million of its 1.4 billion population to be middle class or above and thus complacent in their rule. 500 million being well off is enough for some foreigners to be convinced poverty isn’t a thing there, yet 900 million remain. Another means for CPC to continue governing in perpetuity.
Actually starting this war changes everything as it will hurt the 500 million middle class, and induces unneeded risk to the CPC maybe not looking invincible on the battle field and consequently in public opinion. This is what’s most dangerous to CPC rule, public confidence.
Therefore, most likely status quo until (if) CPC is so in danger domestically that it must start this war to get back some patriotism and support. Until then when CPC and DPP are both in power: strong sounding yet non-action vague threats against Taiwan separatists and American imperialists, continued military drills, and sending money to every foreign diplomat for preaching “One China”. That’s all that’s needed by China on the Taiwan issue.
For Taiwanese political parties, two sides to preserve status quo:
1. KMT (Blue; same party that got kicked off the mainland, then brainwashed Taiwanese for decades to hate the communists, and promised to retake the mainland): Yell "long live the ROC", "Oppose Taiwan Independence", swear by 1992 Consensus where they get to say "ROC is real China" within Taiwan, yet no longer pursue retaking the mainland or eliminating the PRC. They promote zero "ROC" when they're out on international trips, and are complacent in the PRC being the one internationally recognized China that still pursues eradicating the ROC. KMT can frame this as peaceful, while they're nowhere close to equal footing with the PRC when talking "One China". Many voters interpret this as spineless, in no man's land, and have abandoned the old soldiers and brainwashed Taiwanese that believed they'd retake the mainland; yet they still have a significant voter base. PRC prefers this of course. Trade, tourism, and official dialogue opens; less military drills. Peaceful in the sense no one dies, as well as with optics.
2. DPP (Green; known for its extremist faction that would declare independence and likely cause PRC to launch the war immediately; though the majority faction (in power today) still believes in peace with their own terms): Push internationally for understanding and acknowledgement of the very existance of ROC, which rules over Taiwan/Kinmen/Penghu/Matsu. Sure it is not compatible with "One China", yet it reflects the fact that there really still are Two Chinas, that have each done fine on their own for 70+ years, and the ROC does not actively destabilize regional peace by threatening to eliminate PRC (i.e. civilized). Push for ROC to have equal footing with PRC when resolving differences diplomatically. Of course it's a non-starter for PRC to engage/legitimize ROC on equal footing, but it's not outright independence declaration. PRC can't start a full war but will make for minimal/no diplomatic channels or tourism, less trade, more military drills and antagonization. Still peaceful in the sense no one dies, not so much with optics.
Lol china is faring much better than most EU nation and the US domestically, sure they had some problems but claiming they need nationalism to distract people it's pretty American propaganda. The EU has seen nazionalism rise, as well as the american politics. Russia is the common enemy in the EU now, while china is US scapegoat
i can imagine the youth unemployment these days in china and taiwan will mean many will instead join the army maybe
its CCP....not CPC
@@gerardojereza7076 pollute both.
@@dsw86 No
The shift to using "CPC" rather than the correct "CCP" is a deliberate strategy the CCP makes in order to obfuscate its past. If every news article and piece of information online pre 2020 used the "CCP", and everything written after uses "CPC". Then anyone searching for information on the "CPC" after 2020, will find it more difficult to find the crimes of the CCP.
Google: CPC human rights = Party propaganda as first search result.
Google: CCP human rights = Accusations of forced labor, arbitrary detention, internment camps, torture, sexual abuse, mass surveillance and separation of families.
It IS the Chinese Communist Party, CCP.
Just wanted to note that the sponsor Nebula is fantastic, even if it's a bit slow at times. Lots of interesting content that is well made.
Interesting how over youtube's life the titles go from "Could China ever invade Taiwan"
To
"WHEN will China invade Taiwan" 👀
Lol the amount of "when will China invite Taiwan" videos I've seen the last few months from various TH-camrs
Is there some type of state department grant to produce content like this, or is this just part of the propaganda wing of the US government passing itself off as if it were independent creators? Honestly, hard to say. The intense level of anti-china propaganda lately has been insane, and it's rapidly racing towards cold-war level anti-soviet propaganda..
Along with the "30 days for Chinese Collapse" ones
Yeah and imo, I say only polymatters Videos about China are the most informative and non biased ones, real life lore is awesome but his videos about China aren't really correctly informative.
Doom and gloom gets the most attention
Exactly as we've been seeing constant videos and news about Russia invading Ukraine... and nobody believed that... and it was to no end, and it was always next week ... until it actually happened, and then none of us was laughting anymore. Do not underestimate irrational dictatorships.
Great video but I really wish you'd do more of a conclusion rather than just go straight into the nebula promo but I get why you do it. Videos always feel like they end so abruptly, I get whiplash
I think this is actually the best part of this channel, presenting numbers quote and facts, doing less comentary. At the end of each video you will have a conclusion yourself.
Watching this situation play out is an endless source of frustration.
This was an amazing video.
I feel like not enough emphasis is put on the abject failure of “one country, two systems” and the breaking of the Sino-British treaty, big reasons why the idea of peaceful unification went out the window. It’s basically impossible for Beijing to convince Taiwan of anything unless the government changes trajectory rapidly.
there was no treaty for the handover. HK has to be return to China because the lease expired. the one country 2 system is a domestic law of China, China as a soverighty country has the right to change it law. in fact the national security law was already written before 1997. China simply choose not to enforce it. yet the western narrative lied to create a false impression that Beijing change it promise to HK. that was never the case, both because China didn't promise anything, it was just recieving a territory at the end of it legal lease, and the creation of these law were all made well before the handover.
Correct mistakes: this is a civil war between Chinese Mainland and Taiwan, China. So there is no claim of invasion. Both sides are separatist regimes, and whoever wins will inherit the Chinese orthodoxy.
@notri... can you explain the failure? as far as I know: because of the violent protest, china introduce security law which is softer than what UK & US have.
True , the “one country two system “was made as a compromise to show Taiwan that China can coexist with Taiwan as long as they accept One China policy. But times has changed now
@@lagrangewei Why lie about basic things that can be easily Googled? There was of course a treaty outlining the handover and subsequent regime that Hong Kong would enjoy. It was the Sino-British Joint Declaration of 1984. It was ratified by both countries on 27 May 1985 and was registered at the United Nations by both governments on 12 June 1985. And it was in that document that had the PRC promise to uphold and keep Hong Kong Basic Law unchanged for at least 50 years after 1997 and establish the One-China-two-systems policy.
It seems unjust that these events are often presented as isolated incidents without any explanation of their underlying causes. I'm genuinely curious about the motivations behind the positive and negative actions taken during the KMT and DPP timelines. After all, there's almost always a cause driving every effect, and it's unreasonable to make evluations of intent without expanding on the topic even if its brief.
this video seems to imply that whenever Taiwanese vote for DPP they are brought closer to war. That's literally CCP (and to a similar degree KMT) propaganda talking point.
The Capital doesn't like to explain, that's why it spends millions if not billions in keeping it's population below average IQ. The moment we start to rationalize, we'd immediately drop Capitalism for Socialism,
@@danielcaldwell1110
Yes Chinese population is very dumb, they believe that Taiwan belongs to them even though they never controlled it.
@@danielcaldwell1110agreed. So many people being exploited by corporations and the ultra wealthy, while voting for parties and policies that perpetuate this exploitation because "socialism bad, capitalism good". As if the only two options are extreme economic inequality under capitalism, or fuckin North Korea/China.
Socialism doesnt work and I say this as someone from a country in crisos because of it.
if you prepare for a sprint and end up in a marathon, I am not sure if you will get to last to the end
i'd walk. why anybody actually runs a marathon in the first place is beyond me.
Very good and informative video as usally. Only these imperial units are super confusing.
It's funny to see "deterrence" used in this context
Why?
@@user-xp5id1kh4r in geopoliticis, the term "deterrence" is usually used by the more vulnerable party to... "deter" conflict initiation from the dominant party. In this case, the dominant party is citing "deterrence" to "deter" the vulnerable party from... ???
@@ulamss5 I don't agree with "usually used by the more vulnerable party" part of your definition of deterrence. For example, the US's number one name in the game for the past half century has been "deterrence". Every nation can practice deterrence no matter how small or how large (in terms of power disparity). Or do you mean the irony of it? ie, the fact that a small nation is standing up to a big nation?
Is it just me or does this feel like the 500th video produced on this topic, in the past year?
After China threw a tantrum over Pelosi's visit last year, the whole world has been on notice. It's not just you, and it's only the start.
US propaganda machine go brrrr
@@verycherrybombr This isn't propaganda for the U.S. It critiques the US media's hyperbolic and exaggerated response to US military statements, which are targeted towards internal stakeholders. At the same time it compels listeners to see China's possible approach from their perspective, while not supporting its aims.
I was referring to the many other videos about this topic that I have watched not specifically this video because I haven't watched it fully yet. @@mena88
Its not US propaganda though. Propaganda is specifically from the government. Not random youtube makers who post a video every few weeks. I hate how americans have fallen into the poor practice of giving specific words new meanings that have nothing to do with the word. @@verycherrybombr
Learn more about the Taiwanese perspective on this matter:
th-cam.com/video/XbobiiglwD4/w-d-xo.html
I hope the war never happens.
When he said “sponsored by China Actually” I was like 😳😳😳😳😳
TLDW: The best approach for Taiwan and the US is to keep calm and carry on.
The US doesn’t want calm it wants to sell weapons
@@singpoopthroawaydid you even watch the video?
@@singpoopthroaway tell pelosi to stop traveling to taiwan to get insider news to trade on
Correct mistakes: The civil war between Chinese Mainland and Taiwan, China has not ended, so there is no talk of invasion. Both sides are separatist regimes, and whoever wins will inherit the Chinese orthodoxy. For national unity, chips are of no value.
taiwan will likely try to calm down, but US will try very hard to make taiwan the ukraine 2.0.
Tremendous insights
Wow, incredibly level-headed. Great job!
I love your content. Keep the great work 💪🆙
When he said sponsored by china I was so flustered, like it can't be a joke am I on the right channel 😆.
It make me cringe
I was expecting to be really frustrated by this video but it was actually done well. Nice
"敢于斗争" means "dare to fight" in English. "斗争" implies fighting or conflict. A term like "奋斗" is more commonly used for "struggle" in the sense of overcoming adversity or some internal force; the most (in)famous example being the Chinese translation of "Mein Kampf."
Why not emphasis love, peace and cooperation? Must the "dare to fight" be injected in the blood of Chinese people ~ the peace loving people.
@@johnyan836 The peace-loving people who support a government who routinely threatens war against the almost 24 million people who live on Taiwan?
This is in the video 13:04
@@johnyan836 because it's pep talk to the military. what kind of military in the world talks about love and peace? grow up
IF more than When.
As a American, I believe in the One China Policy, BUT only in under one condition… One China should be the People’s Republic of China NOT Republic of China.
Realistically just say they are both two different countries. Though I wouldn’t oppose the only China to be Taiwan.
I think maybe you have that backwards? Lol
Or you’re a CCP fanboy…
@@Dnttou0497he's American alright, like those 2 "Americans" with indigenous Chinese names who joined our military and were recently caught spying for the CCP.😂
Republic just means Government that not monarchy. Are people don't know this?
I believe in the One China Policy, where there's just China ruled by the CCP, and then there's also Taiwan which is totally unrelated
Nebula looks great!
I think the only timeline China has is when they are 100% sure that they can invade Taiwan successfully, they will invade; however, the timeline is not 100% set and China definitely does not want to send money and troops to the battlefield. This is the worst investment to China's POV. Peaceful unification with spending the least amount of bucks is what China's aiming for.
They will invade if Biden gets reelected. Biden has no shady deals in Taiwan and America is already exhausted sending aid to Ukraine. Biden has every reason not to protect Taiwan and every other country in the world will not send aid to Taiwan if the US refuses to do so.
Do you think that CCP was even 10% sure before they pushed the UN force back to 38 degree line when then?
It is " liberating Taiwan" , not a invasion, a civil war to liberate Taiwan.
an independent and prosperous taiwan will outlast the corruption and idiocy of the mainland communist party
Cope
I saw a documentary which explained Taiwan's extremely vital role in the world's computer microchip production, (China is being removed from benefitting) America could never give up Taiwan to China at this point
not to mention Taiwan is a massive strategic ally because of its placement and its other technological exports
It's even wider than that, denying Taiwan to Beijing is the easiest way to check Beijing's expansion of influence into the Pacific. Chinese coast often lacks deep waters for submarines to slip in and out easily (without being detected), obtaining Taiwan would change that as their east coast is very suitable for basing submarines with deep waters.
Not having Taiwan forces Beijing to have a much weaker trade link to the rest of the world in case of war, having it would seriously empower their position.
It goes on and on.
I think Taiwan is more the representation of the current statue-quo that the US (and many others like Japan, SK, and EU) can not let violently change. So yes, they can't and wouldn't give up on Taiwan anytime soon no matter whether microchip production is or isn't focused on Taiwan.
That is until they grow their own semiconductor business. Once they're not dependent anymore, they wouldn't give two shit about taiwan.
@@chinguunerdenebadrakh7022I came to say this. As important as computer chips are, we can invest government money to improve TSMC production in the US or prop up Intel, it's not something we can't overcome in a few years. However maintaining the first island chain is far more vital.
Love your vids! Keep them coming!!
Can't you make the long story short? When???
Another excellent product of quality research and presentation.
Learn more about the Taiwanese perspective on this matter:
th-cam.com/video/XbobiiglwD4/w-d-xo.html
13:28 "Having a larger, stronger military is useful whether or not it fights" Is also very true for Taiwan.
A couple of things that Former President Ma did during his presidency were
1. Reduce conscription from 1 year to 4 months. On the surface, it just seemed like an easy policy to win young people over. However, the more insidious intent could be to make Taiwanese army, on average, less experienced and less ready to fight.
2. Uproot *ALL* intelligence services undercover in China. This is more obviously a stupid policy and want to weaken Taiwan. Even if China isn't aggressive, it would be necessary to have eyes on neighboring countries, especially if it is stronger. That's just how small countries can survive.
16:57 Also very true that Taiwan is under psychological warfare. Every so often I see disinformation and fact-check/clarification statements from the government flying around in social media. A lot of those misinformation and disinformation are most likely originated from China. The main idea is always to create distrust between the civilians and the government. This is to make civilians unwilling to cooperate once if China decide to invade. Nothing is harder to work with than a disobedient general public.
your comments should be getting more upvotes! Indeed this is exactly what's going on over there on that island.
How was that ex president NOT charged with treason?
Edit: Added "NOT"
@@nunyabiznes33 you mean, how was that ex-president (Ma Ing-Jeou) *NOT* charged with treason?
Good point and great question. I wondered that myself, too.
@@willywonka4340 forgot the NOT. YT's interface keep getting worse with each update. Sometimes I'd only notice something missing after I post if or if someone pointed it out.
And when editing it just so tiny. 😅
@@nunyabiznes33 same here, that's why I have to go back and proofread every time. As careful as I've been lately, I'd still end up editing my comments anyway lol.
The more I learn about Taiwan, the place it has found in the world economy and global politics as well as the simple realities of a invasion the more I understand that 'when' is putting the cart before the horse and the key question is 'if'.
Because even in ideal conditions, a Chinese invasion would be hard to pull of with a high chance of total military failure, but realistically a invasion would be extremely hard with a immense chance of national disaster.
Yes, but do not underestimate the suicidal irrationality of dictators like Xi, Putin and Kim. You can have 10 logical arguments why it would be a complete disaster for China... and Xi Jinping will still do it.
🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣
Correct mistakes: this is a civil war between Chinese Mainland and Taiwan, China. So there is no claim of invasion. Both sides are separatist regimes, and whoever wins will inherit the Chinese orthodoxy.
@blitz... let's not pretend to be military expert, so I ignore your last paragraph. basically PRC and ROC is like Union and Confederate during US civil war.
the mre you learn Taiwan from Western and pro-indepence Taiwanese media, the less you know their real military capacity,
Okay but its an insane shame that the phrase "dare to fight" has such a negative association to it because holy hell thats a raw line
Could you do a video on the Venezuela and Guyana dispute?
RealLifeLore, Wendover and now you in a span of 15 minutes
same for me 😊
Almost like those videos where all the news networks talk about the same thing.
@@randomdude8877 To be fair, RLL and Wendover are made by the same guys.
@@vincenttt8289 Not really, they're friends but different people.
Bro, in two weeks I’m moving to Taiwan.
Don’t scare me like that. XD
They see Taiwan as its own. Probably won't use more force than necessary to re-unify with them, so you're probably safe.
That's great until it becomes a protracted war.
How can you afford it? Most young people in Taiwan can barely afford a "shoebox" apartment. Same story in places like Hong Kong and Korea.
@@J_X999在其他城市买房子很便宜
@@Li.Meng.aren't you a Chinese how did you bypass the firewall.
I teach English to students in China and there's an aspect of this that Evan has mentioned before, but didn't come up in this video and bears repeating: Much of what Xi says about foreign policy is the equivalent of campaigning, if he had to stand for election. He's better at some things than others, but one thing he is absolute Jedi-level master at, is bundling his own agenda with national patriotism. With this in mind, a case could be made that neither the construction of the model in the desert, nor the release of the video showing how it was attacked, were intended for non-domestic consumption.
Taiwan is not a country, Taiwan's real name is Republic of China. Taiwan is only a province of it. Do not fooled by this propaganda.PRC and ROC are at civil war. There is no peace agreement from both side.
This makes a lot of sense. I noticed long ago that the Taiwanese issue is central for the CCP and hence for China as we know it today. I think some party officials are not as willing to reunify with Taiwan by force, but they must constantly bring up the topic to have internal order in China, and they will ultimately need to actually go for it if they feel like they need to.
0:54 I was about to say that it reminded me of Kijong-dong...
I always find the comment about how one can't know how good the PRC military is because it hasn't fought a major war since 1979 a bit disingenuous, because it is never applied to everyone else in East or South East Asia, for whom the same claim is also true. The South Korean military hasn't fought in major war since Vietnam. Japan hasn't fought anything since 1945. ROC forces haven't also fought any major engagements since the 1950's, really. And yet their ability to fight is never questioned in the same manner.
Because the PRC is the presumed aggressor, and invading is almost always harder than defending.
US training vs commie man meat wave...all our allies are part of the greatest military doctrine in the world. Ukraine had our help and incorporated our doctrine and training methods after 2014. Equal arms and no nukes...Russia would be part of ukraine rt now.
and how taiwan is an impenetrable fortress because look at afhagnistan.
@@clivestaples244 US military training doesn't mean combat experience. Watch and listen to his video.
@clivestaples244 the sad part is you are probably stupid enough to believe your own crap.
I am Taiwanese, just here to say that we hear all kinds of rumors pretty often, we are sore of those discussions, and we all know it's not happening too soon unless the Chinese lose their minds. Other problems are still present in mainland China, so it's not a good timing. Also, Taiwan is too crucial in the chip industry for them to afford, because they will also be affected once our chip manufacturing halts. Since the US is already banning chip manufacturing equipment from exporting to China, if we stop making chips, China will likely be the one affected the most.
Also, the most effective way to make Taiwan surrender might be announcing our nearby seas as missile test sites. Since our energy relies heavily on coal imports and our economy on chip exports, with no ships willing to take the risk to enter our sea, we will probably surrender because we can't survive on our own.
Plus why would China want to invade itself
Its just american propaganda
If that were the case we (the US) would probably just park a few DDGs in the immediate area packed to the gills with intercept missiles. Fucking with international trade is a pretty surefire way to get the USN involved.
The same was said for Ukraine but Russia still went ahead and invaded. Stay vigilant and do your part!
If you know, in general how do the people of Taiwan feel about the EU, particularly france and their recent controversy vis a vis Taiwan and their moves to block a NATO office in Japan.
In general it seems France views china as a hedge to American hegemony and as a result has been subtly undermining Americas position in the region including with Taiwan.
Whereas Eastern Europe views America as their security guarantor so follow americas lead on geopolitical issues. Which is why they have taken such an pro Taiwan, anti-China approach.
I’ve been trying to find about the euro-Taiwan relationship particularly France-Taiwan but it is always only presented through the European pov.
There are more mentions in this video of Nebula than the China / Taiwan topic...
This certainly sounds good too, but I think its still worth considering more reliable options like traditional businesses such as cannafarm ltd, for example.
If this continues, i might have to get involved.
What will you do?? 😨
Watch out China
Oh shit
Say your prayers, everyone. The world as we know it may end
Oh no. We are doomed if this happens.
While I understand what you’re saying - I lived in China from 2004-2006. China in its current and economic and social circumstance, with Xi as it’s leader is not the same as prior administrations. That said, I don’t feel this is imminent - but the likelihood increases with decoupling and deepening social/economic/political troubles/crises.
😂😂As a Chinese, I just want to say that it's a good thing for you idiots to go abroad, and it's better for the country if the garbage goes away.
1:14 nauru mentioned!
Watched this on Nebula but still wanted to leave a comment for the algorithm 👍
We may not know when and if China will invade Taiwan, but there is a lot of semiconductor investment taking place outside the island now !
The ending of the semiconductor monoploy while great news for so many of us, is a serious risk for Taiwan as the huge economic motiive to preserve itself with other’s help will be gone. Hopefully morals, the statragitic limiting of the CCP, and the rise of economic ties in other areas will be enough to maintain and grow Taiwan’s ties with others.
Not all investment is going outside Taiwan. The bulk of TSMC investment is still in Taiwan and TSMC is by far the leading edge manufacturer of semiconductor, especially high end ones (like 90% of the market).
What TSMC is building in Arizona will manufacture 3nm which is currently the bleeding edge. But it is a factory being built to manufacture today's top of the line chips, so it ain't gonna be bleeding edge when it comes online in like 2024. Factories in Taiwan are slated for 1nm.
In total, TSMC makes about 2.7 million wafers per month (wafers which then go on to be "cut" into smaller parts that then are the heart of the product). Arizona will make about 100k of that. Tho that 2.7 million likely does include a lot of the lower end chips as well, the us production is still not mammoth.
The most advanced ones will still be made in Taiwan. Korea is closest to catching up there but still need to figure how to mass produce them at Taiwan’s capacity.
On Arizona, Americans need to realize the amount of Taiwanese experts they need just to build, maintain, and operate the factory because America outsourced all that know-how and experience to Asia decades ago. Then we talk about work ethic and culture, it’s a huge gap before you’ll be able to supersede Taiwan in mass production. You don’t just work a comfy 9-5 and sitting there watching the ASML machine do everything.
会不会是美国和中国合作一起抽空台湾呢
This is a very interesting and thought-provoking video about the possible scenarios of a Chinese invasion of Taiwan. I appreciate the analysis and insights from the experts and commentators, as well as the historical and geopolitical context provided by the video. I think this is a very important and complex issue that affects not only the people of Taiwan and China, but also the regional and global stability and security. I hope that the tensions can be resolved peacefully and diplomatically, and that the rights and interests of all parties can be respected and protected. I also hope that the international community can play a constructive role in supporting dialogue and cooperation, and preventing conflict and violence. Thank you for making this video and sharing it with us. 👍🏻😊
no international can decide China's boarder and land
@@lxue5518 Lol you're replying to a banal and probably AI-generated comment. He's just advertising his channel.
Did You Tie One On ?
David Montagne on substack said it would occur on April 12th 2024. We will see
As a Chinese mainlander, I hope there’ll be no war between the two sides. However, sometimes certain things are very difficult to prevent and can be quite inevitable.
It's easy to avoid.
All the barbarians in Beijing need to do is accept that people in a country that owes them nothing don't want anything to do with them.
@@bobs_toys that’s pretty “easy” for you to say lol
@@willyang4487 you'd be surprised at how little effort it takes to do nothing.
And that's all the barbarians in Beijing need to do to avoid a war.
Nothing.
@@bobs_toys We'll unify soon or later. Anglo schizos can complain and speculate all you want, but unity is inevitable. Violence is not necessary, the status quo will be preserved until they're fully integrated economy and then the walls come down. Taiwanese aren't stupid and will concede once the benefits outweigh the negatives.. This is ultimately just a political dispute. It's not a race war like how the Anglos despise the Chinese.
@@bobs_toys With the mainland Chinese doing nothing, I see the US increasing its influence and presence in Taiwan more and more, to the point that it becomes a real threat to China's security and stability. In other words, we will have a Russia-Ukraine 2.0.
Whether or not the CCP is genuinely planning an invasion, the US needs to continue supplying Taiwan with deterrence capabilities, making conflict even less appeasing than it already is. There are three main strategic fields that Taiwan must prioritize: The readiness and capabilities of ground forces; The needed equipment to counter the initial PRC air dominance in the early days of the war (delaying long enough for US forces to engage); And finally, countering PRC naval capabilities, making it so Taiwan can deter any attempted naval landings (utilizing anti-ship missiles and other equipment). If the PRC fails to gain aerial superiority, it is practically impossible to create a beachhead without heavy casualties. However, if the US fails to act, Taiwan will fall.
Nukes...we've prolly have that set to go.
the reason why US always has doubt about arming Taiwan is because the Taiwan army is pro China. most of the PLA were defected from the ROC army. just recently an ROC soldier swim to the mainland and defected. the army don't support independence, they want to live.
美国也有敌人
我们也可以武装美国的敌人
@@clivestaples244 Lol, that'd be suicide. 😅😂🤣
None of these vaunted 'strategic fields' make much difference to the most likely form of attack - a blockade. China isn't preparing to fight Taiwan - they already assume the US will intervene and are preparing to fight them. For Taiwan all they need do is wait.
Isn't this military exercise called Zhu Rihe held every year?
I’d like to check the nebula contents. It is the first time I ever see someone else say they think China’s censorship becomes both more and less strict. This actually happened for a while. 😂
"We will have Taiwan!"
"When will we have Taiwan?"
"To gulag with you!"
Somewhere in ccp politburo, probably
If you can’t be vague like us, then you’re a fake and fraud to the Chinese cause
Chinese politicians know what's going on. I doubt they'd need to ask at this point.
That would be funny ha ha.
It would be difficult to invade Taiwan. Much more difficult for China to invade Taiwan than for Russia to invade Ukraine.
Since Taiwan is an island, this means that China’s ground forces are limited to whatever air and sea transport are available. Both of which would be vulnerable to either GBAD or anti-ship missiles/submarines respectively.
Chinese combat aviation also has to have the numbers to confront Taiwan, the USA, and possibly Japan. While also being powerful and numerous enough to deter Indian and Vietnamese forces from taking advantage of the situation.
Many Chinese commenters have high confidence in the accuracy of their cruise missiles to hit and disable Taiwanese airfields. However, even if their confidence is well placed, there are questions about Chinese stockpiles of those expensive missiles . As demonstrated in Ukraine, simply hitting an airfield is not enough to prevent combat sorties. You need to hit the airfield repeatedly until you take the airfield or destroy all the combat aviation.
If you know how weak and untrained the Taiwanese military is, it's almost certain that the Chinese military could finish the invasion pretty quickly if they are on a 1 on 1 fight. That's exactly the reason the US and other allies of Taiwan are preparing and building bases. The major issue though is China is too close to Taiwan and the US is too far from it, so for China they may bet on occupying Taiwan before the others arrive.
@@qiang2884 they’re not that weak. The Taiwanese military is as large as Ukraine’s was prewar. They got more aviation, armored vehicles, and naval vessels than Ukraine did. It is also highly unlikely that China could finish the war quickly since the Chinese military, despite its size, has logistical constraints far beyond what Russia had to deal with in Ukraine.
@@kurousagi8155 and they are as corrupt and under trained as Russians. A lot of the soldiers are conscripts with extremely low morale. In the meantime, China has the 2nd largest military, no conscripts(currently), and tons of missiles pointed at Taiwan. The soldiers are also basically brainwashed so they don't mind sacrifice. If the Chinese are half as good as on paper, Taiwan would lose easily.
The thing that used to block mainland China from invading is the sea, and now they are spending a lot of money on building navy so logistics would no longer be a problem soon.
@@kurousagi8155 I just looked at the numbers again, and the Chinese army are at least 5 times and at most 20 times stronger on every aspect of military forces.
I think the main issue for China would not be attacking Taiwan, but to transport its army to Fujian in a short time. If the US sees this kind of behavior, they will know what will happen and start reacting, but still the main US force is very far from Taiwan.
@@qiang2884you don't need tons of soldiers when you're sinking the ships transporting them.
Can you make a video on the border crisis between India and china???
6:31 Isn't that the rabbit from *Cat Sh1t One* ?
The main rationale in I've read in most discussions about an invasion hinges on how committed China is to annexing Taiwan. If they really do have it as their highest level goal then that leads to a question of timing. And the window for invasion will never be more open then in the next few years.
If the 3 gorges dam is broken, it will flood 33% of China's economy, including Shanghai. Taiwan can do this on their own basically, so basically they will never invade anyone who can do that
Realistically in the 2030s they'll be ready to actually do an invasion. They'll have economically isolated themselves and brought their military up to a standard to go toe to toe with the US and allies. Currently they couldn't do that.
🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣
Correct mistakes: this is a civil war between Chinese Mainland and Taiwan, China. So there is no claim of invasion. Both sides are separatist regimes, and whoever wins will inherit the Chinese orthodoxy.
china wil never invade if no red lines ever crossed. basically taiwan set the time, by their own will or by US' command.
This is a text-book prisoners' dilemma. Both China and US prefer peace, but they are more afraid of losing a war. Neither can trust the other to not prepare for war. Therefore, both will prepare for war. As both side building up militariy capabilties, hostilities escalate and the prospect of war become a self-fulfilling prophecy. Mutual destruction will be the most likely outcome.
It Is not. China does not want to fight with America. It Is America who wants hegemony and wants to contain China. The situation benifits US weapon industry.
but why will one side even go to war iff the costs arre too high?
@@AanandBajajBecause the one that initiate the war enjoy the benefit of surprise, which increase its chance of winning. It might also expect the other to back off because the high costs of war.
@@chi-jenyang9752 This is only true if you disregard cooperation as a posibility. Something both poo countries share.
At what time in history has the US preferred peace? 84 coups in 70 years...that's across approximately 64 countries. Now the game is proxy wars...have some dupe and paid for shill die for you so you gain the financial reward from resources theft and financialisation. Check Ukraine for a great example of this model.
2:57 This video is sponsored by China, actually... is what I heard and I got really confused for a good second
If the general’s memo is for internal, then he probably views it as true. The argument that the fear mongering is for funding would mean they would take a tougher tone externally than internally.
Even though "90% of the world's largest ships transit through the Taiwan Strait" the alternative route does not necessarily involve taking the longer route through Indonesia. After all, having passed through the true chokepoint of the Strait of Malacca, northbound ships could sail to the east of Taiwan. Or are you assuming that closing the Taiwan Strait would necessarily involve blockade of the Strait of Malacca?
China must think twice the consequences of blockade Taiwan Strait. If no Middle East crude oil can reach the shore of China, what would be the outcome?
@@johnyan836 Yup. That's why they are stockpiling Russian oil. The Hudson Institute recently uploaded a video called "China Prepares for War: A Timeline". War would be folly, but we should never underestimate what authoritarians will attempt in order to cling to undeserved power.
@@johnyan836 The result would be that China would destroy all refineries on American soil with intercontinental missiles
@@johnyan836 There are overland routes. China isn't an island, Taiwan is. And btw, so is Japan...Also closing the Strait of Malacca necessarily involves either getting the approval of half a dozen countries in the region - who would be voting against their own interests as it would hurt their economies more - or forcing them to comply, thereby involving half a dozen neutral countries in your war. Also looks incredibly cowardly to do that just to avoid entering the lion's den and fighting them yourself.
@@ArawnOfAnnwn
Why vote when there are aircraft carrierS.
The Normandy invasion was the most difficult military undertaking done by the world's most powerful alliance at that time. Now imagine doing it crossing a larger body of water, with lesser warships, without air superiority, against the greatest Navy in the worlr, against highly trained, motivated and well-equipped defenders, against a hostile population and govt backed by the greatest military power the world has ever seen who is equally backed by the most powerful set of all allies around the world, with your population shrinking and most of your economic needs imported, all these challenges and you do it ALONE. Mind you, this is just invasion. Occupation is far far more difficult. No, China is never invading.
atlantic ocean is smaller than taiwan strait? ok
@@etm3398English Channel genius
Do you compare German with Taiwan lol?and USA is not going to put all its navy for the Taiwan
😂😂😂 as always, the u.s will abandon Taiwan when it suits them.
🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣
awww man nebula grrrrr 😭😭😭 ill guess i have to sub eventually lmao
You are obsessed with china I don’t know any other TH-cam channel with this much obsession 😅 btw your content is amazing ❤❤
does polymatter actually speak/read chinese? just curious
I highly doubt that
Why does that matter? Did he get something factually incorrect that could have been caught otherwise?
@@user-xp5id1kh4r just curious as to how he conducts his research
just cia talking points
@@user-xp5id1kh4r Guess which side the English sources are heavily biased towards?
It's kinda like a guy glaring at another guy and putting both of his fists up to roll them around like a boxer
And the saddest thing is the vast majority of America literally won't care because our politics are only concerned with the most impossibly vain unimportant dribble baby shit possible.
Gotta keep them blabbering about skin color and sexual preferences.
blessing to those stuck between the big powers
War….. war never changes.
The problem for the PRC is that if they invaded, they would have to bare the full risks of a war with the United States. US friendly nations and allies (most of which who would cease business with China), account for approximately 50% - 60% of Chinese exports, and give or take 30% - 35% of Chinese imports. Such an economic blow would be impossible to recover from. The US and the West would take a significant financial hit, but will fair far better than China will. They will lose a lot of business in the short term, but with the right maneuvering, they will be able to relocate a lot of their business to such nations as India. Not to mention the deaths of millions, excluding the use of nuclear weapons. I think that all this points towards political rallying, creating a distraction from the failures China has suffered in recent years, which would make any leader in the CCP's position question if they have as strong of a hold on the country as they thought, given the ongoing cases of civil unrest in the nation.
Yup. That's why China has been moving to become economically self reliant. Really it'll be in the 30s or 40s.
@@TheMysteryDriver Economic self reliance is extremely difficult for any country, let alone China. According to the World Bank, Chinese exports account for about 20% of its GDP. Without Western nations outsourcing labor to China, the country will collapse, or at least the standard of living. People in China are struggling to find jobs as it is, and if all those factories shut down for good, people from all economic backgrounds in China will suffer financially.
@@turtlenecksarepoggers that's why it isn't happening tomorrow and instead in 10-20 years
US gave all its missiles to ukraine non left for taiwan
US is delusional if it think most of the world will sanction China when we refuse to even sanction Russia. just because we are friendly with US doesn't mean we are US slaves.
I do feel like Americans are a little bit too certain about war after Ukraine. It’s important to understand war would be economically disastrous for China. Not to say it’s impossible, but as of now China can’t win easily and war would be against china’s interests.
Ukraine was against Russia's interests too.
Putin...fafo.
China's extended covid lockdowns were also economically disastrous. It's very unwise to make predictions based on rational behavior out of a government who unanimously broke tradition and reelected xi for an unprecedented third term. Unanimous being the key word here.
如果中国战败
中国以后会做什么？
我相信中国会全力以赴的报复美国！
By many accounts, not even the Russian military believed they were invading Ukraine - they assumed they were gathering as a show of force, and a reminder, not a full invasion. Then the orders came down to move in, and things quickly fell apart.
With everyone taken so far by surprise, it's no wonder everyone's wondering if Xi is going to make a similarly unexpected - and inadvisable - decision.
PolyMatter videos are always fire.
i'm lovin the 60 fps
Ambiguity has to be exploited either way. More weapons to Taiwan, more focus on the South China Sea. It works in reverse too, and is just as required. Then again everyone thought Russia invading Ukraine would never happen and was crazy... except for the USA which go it right.
所以你支持乌克兰人屠杀俄罗斯人
Considering the US has got plenty wrong before, and is the other major party held responsible for the war in Ukraine in the first place, saying they 'got it right' is disingenuous. Like an insider trader getting the movement of a particular stock right.
@@ArawnOfAnnwn saying "America bad" is far easier than actually thinking about it isn't it? Because that and actual research would reveal that this is not about America, it's about Russia and it desperately trying to prove itself as still a great power that rightfully controls eastern europe, according to their official channels they show actual Russians, instead of the ones for retarded or fascist westerners
Why is everyone making videos about Taiwan?
The Deep State wants war
It's essentially cold-war 2 propaganda. This type of stuff was being fed to the public constantly about the soviets before the 90s.
If only we had a detailed an analysis of the Ukraine-Russia situation. This is helpful to have in the files in regards to the situation around China.
thats like saying analysis of the America-Iraq situation would have been helpful in regards to the Russia situation
The Ukraine-Russia situation was simple, Ukraine entering NATO was Russia's red line and all indications were that they were going to cross it in 2022.
@@hughmungus2760 Well, yeah. Part of their country had been occupied since 2014, and more was being fought over along the border for years. Why wouldn't a country in that position look for allies?
@@watchm4ker if there was no US backed coup in 2014. there wouldn't have been an annexation.
I like turtles. @@watchm4ker
Do you seriously need to mid-roll ad every 3 minutes?
Well let's just hope that the failure of the Ukraine War has put off China from invading Taiwan, especially considering that amphibious landings are one of the most difficult operations to execute.
Especially when you consider that it is highly likely that the US will get directly involved due to strategic interests. (microchips)
The fact that the US is persuing a generational leap in both ground and ship based fighters, and deploying a palletised system for deploying ASMs in bulk should tell you what our projected level of involvement will be.
@@bohba13 Lol I suppose that the Taiwanese threat to destroy their own microchip facilities in invasion is not only a deterrent against China but also a chain to pull in the US as well haha
@@MemoryofSouthVietnam when you have a military as tech-heavy as the US that's probably the case.
@@MemoryofSouthVietnam it's a given that if a war starts those factories are basically done. Those things are not coming out of the war in one piece not matter who wins.
You put too much faith in Xi Jinping's intelligence and rationality.
This discussion always gravitates towards geopolitical chess between Beijing and DC. "What do the actual humans of Taiwan want for themselves?" never seems to come up. I'm curious about what the answer to that actually is. Given the 3x disparity in per capita GDP I have a guess...
Their problem lies in their claim to the entirety of mainland China, without arguing the grounds or validity to such. While China entirely lays claim to the island as under its own lands, the hostility lies not on that island, but in the claims of mainland China. If Taiwan ceased to lay claim to mainland China, and focused strictly on sovereignty and independence as an entirely seperate nation, they'd be much farther away from this aggression ramping.
@@Optable
This is a solid point. The idea of the Nationalist Party wresting back their "rightful" control of China from the CCP is fairly ludicrous and laughable at this late date. It's like thinking the Confederate States of America is ever going to take over the Union. I don't generally like "both sides-ism" but it does seem both sides are afflicted with nationalist brainrot that precludes more rational thought.
What about the fact that China has enacted racist policies and would nationalize the businesses of Taiwan?
Pretty sure What-Taiwan-Wants *has* played a major part in this conversation. It's only unfortunate that What-America-Wants has to be a deciding factor in what happens: The question being whether America cares enough to take on a re-enactment of the Korean War just to protect the non-Chinese population of East Asia from being fed into Xinjiang internment camps. (Don't think for a moment Beijing would stop with Taiwan - they have stronger historical claims on Mongolia and Vietnam, before even considering the South China Sea.)
As Afghanistan demonstrated, if Taiwan won't stand up, America won't do it for them. As Ukraine demonstrated, if Taiwan does stand up, much of the world may at least take notice. As Rojava demonstrated, who gets elected in America can unfortunately matter more than what an ally actually does, in determining which allies America will help.
@@Optable Actually that is historically incorrect: The irony here is that Taiwan would love to give up any claim to any part of China, even since before martial law ended. However China directly threatens that if Taiwan STOPS claiming to be China, that will be their cue to declare immediate war. This may seem counter intuitive, but what @Optable is saying is completely counterfactual.
Hopefully soon
Finally, right title. Not if, but when unfortunately:(