Thanks for the great feedback on the first episode of my new Nebula Original series. Episode 2 is out now and I think it's even better. This one is about why China is still pursuing Zero-COVID after 900 days and with no end in sight. I've had theories about this for years but feel like it's starting to really crystalize, and the answer is not a pleasant one. If you've been holding off on signing up for Nebula, now is the time to pull the trigger, with the CS + Nebula bundle on sale for less than $1/month right now: curiositystream.com/polymatter
Why is Trump omitted from the list of presidents? Why did you joke about Russia's GDP being "formerly" 9.5x that of Ukraine? Unless you're under the assumption that Western sanctions will affect Russia's GDP more proportionally than Ukraine's current destruction, then I really can't see how you made that claim. You also falsely claimed that Ukrainian civilian resistance causes slowdown for Russia. This is false. It's Western aid that causes slowdown for Russia. You also falsely claimed that tractors were an obstacle to Russia. Again, it's a joke based on a false premise. You can make that joke on your circle jerk platform, but don't make it in a video where you're (seemingly) trying to gain trust and educate others. You then continue by claiming Russia's position on the world stage is similar to that of North Korea. I didn't know being part of the G20, part of OPEC+, and a major oil exporter (doesn't matter where they're exporting to) is a North Korean-esque world power. I have a feeling you unironically use Twitter, as these jokes based on false premises seem to originate and stay on that toxic platform (where 65% of all information is considered false). Why are these weird inaccuracies showing up in your video? This was the first PolyMatter video I've seen where there is explicit bias, and flat out omissions of information (as cryptic as they are).
The things China is doing over there should give people in America Perception, yet it doesn't. Most Fascinating. So many people not really Paying Attention.
I think you should be more precise here and tell people that the basic CS + Nebula bundle won't give them access to your China videos. Since they're Nebula Originals, a subscription upgrade for additional 5 bucks a month is needed.
16:54 "WHY" Of course, you can't see why? Because you don't have all the moving pieces. Now if China's Central Bank is in the Control of the Cabal, The Israel Banking Cartel. That owns All of them!!! Literally!!! Of course, that question is not proven, however, all the evidence still lines up in Israel Tho. How interesting. China can only be seen as an Enemy if they are not doing what Israel tells them to do the way they control every other Country. In every country is a different system, in America is A.I.P.A.C in the UK it's something else. As long as China is bending the Knee everything is Good. Like Putin, that is all part of the Plan. Not to mention prior to the War, the Israeli Prime Minister visited Ukraine a lot leading up to the War. We already know they funded both sides of the world Wars. all just to get Israel and control of all the WOrld's Central Banks. Period. Now, they shrinking the Population of the world. they have a web around the world that has taken Centuries to execute. the world's longest Rally race for Power the world has seen. They control all the Media in almost every Country. In Britain is was Ms.Maxwell's Father Mossad's agent. Media MOgul? The deeper you get, the crazier it gets. the more like a crazy person you sound like. Edwin Snowden is not crazy by a long shot. Its heavily layered. at almost every high level in the Military, in the C.I.A an American with dual Citizenship to America and Israel. How are in fact Mossad agents? there is "Americans" that are in fact Mossad agents, controlling our people In COngress, Most agencies. Chuck Schumer is one of them.
"Taiwanese are less concerned." Reminds me of what I noticed when I worked in Seoul .The South Korean public is way less worried about a North Korean attack than us North Americans. After living there for a few months, I settled into that pattern too and learned it was mostly empty threats, since it makes no strategic or economic sense to attack, not to mention they could lose the support of China (their only ally and lifeline) if they do so, since China does a lot of trade with South Korea. Not to mention the South Koreans and US being a good boogeyman to maintain fear and power over the North Koreans.
The Ukrainians thought the exact same right until Russia finally pulled the trigger and attacked. Complacency is very dangerous. Especially Since unlike Ukraine, Taiwan will not be getting armed once China launches the attack.
Taiwan has lived with Chinese claims over it for over half a century. The public there isn't even mostly for rash independence declarations - their own surveys show only about 10% of the population favors that (half the population favors it eventually, but they're in no hurry). Even the Chinese were mostly content to maintain the status quo - China is even Taiwans' largest trade partner, by far (contrast that with the US and Cuba, an island in a similar position that actually HAS been invaded by the US before, and been sanctioned to oblivion ever since). The current tensions started in 2017 - nothing changed in China then (Xi came to power in 2012), it changed in the US. Specifically Trump came to power and launched an anti-China crusade, which his successor has just continued. Taiwan isn't about Taiwan, it's about the US (which already has bases close to China, and already allied with Taiwan) versus China.
@@ArawnOfAnnwn If believe that China with it's current rhetoric isn't planning on one day invading Tiawan if they don't agree to a union then you're either very delusional/ignorant or just a CCP shill spouting disinformation.
As a South Korean, I completely agree with your analysis. Still, like the video says, nobody really knows what is going through these madmen's heads, so we should still be vigilant.
11:36 Why didn't they include Trump in this timeline? I'm no fan of Trump personally, but Trump was an official president of the US so he shouldn't be removed from the timeline imo
@@Average-mi6ih Same, I know it doesn't do much but I disliked the video. I don't support censorship by either side and am very disappointed in PolyMatter right now
It's a shame that Polymatter fell for the orange man bad narrative. Trump was infinitely better than Biden, who is causing record inflation, handed Afghanistan to the Taliban along with 80 BILLION in military equipment and now the war in Ukraine.
5:39 Not completely true. You omit that Ukraine is very muddy in the seasons of spring and autumn leaving winter and summer the best time for invasions. That's the reason the Russians were mostly on the roads where they could get droned, because they would get bogged up everywhere else.
shhh, this is an amatuer channel, who's purpose is to talk about hot button issues, so the guy can make a living, he's not an academic that needs to have academic integrity.
@@BandytaCzasu Uhh no I think if China even tried invading Russia the war would end with China being broken up into 5 or 6 small countries and several cities being nuked. Also Russia would finally have warm sea ports.
Taiwan has a far better economy than Ukraine and is far more competitive, as well as having greater international influence despite not being internationally recognised as a state by almost everybody. Not to mention: semiconductor weapons. Taiwan also realises this and is diversifying its investment in the United States and the West to serve as plan B in case of a Chinese invasion. Though I will cast a big "if" when China also needs economic benefits from Taiwan.
But Taiwan is much older and wealthier/educated/urban which might be hinder a resistance in comparison to Ukraine. My parents is from there and many relatives still live there. I wish Taiwan well but there is both positives & negatives in comparison to Ukraine in resistance to war.
Economy isn't a very useful indicator. More importantly, what allies do you have. How strong is your military and most important of all how is your geography. Ukraine is flat as a pancake and very easy to walk across on foot. That's bad news or anyone living there. On the other hand Taiwan is an island. That is an advantage to anybody trying to get there
China would take Taiwan in the 2030s, by then, China and the US would monopolize semiconductor manufacturing, both are pouring money and resources, Taiwan's advantage won't last to the end of this decade.
I had my doubts that an island off the coast of China was the same as a country on the North of the Black Sea and sandwiched between Russia and the west but thank you for confirming it
I think it is also important to mention that Taiwan produces 90% of the world's advanced chips. Without them straight up every single industry will collapse. There are two reasons why this is important. One it will literally force the US to defend Taiwan whether they want to or not, plus the US also already has national security reasons for defending Taiwan. The second is that China straight up buys their chips from Taiwan too, it would be self-sabotage to invade Taiwan.
@@sunahamanagai9039 that is the wettest dream out of all of china's wet dreams, but unfortunately all of taiwan's factories,universities, libraries, research centers , and data banks are all designed to self destruct when a hypothetical chinese invasion has overwhelmed all lines of defence.
@@sunahamanagai9039 yep, taiwanese strategy has long concluded that they would never be able to repel a full scale chinese invasion, so their military strategy had always been to delay the invasion until the allied reinforcements arrive or until all facilities have been destroyed
Apart from mistakes other people outlined, I think that you overlooked one major element, urban warfare. Taiwan has a density of 652/km2, Ukraine 73/km2. During the first phase of the Russian invasion, we have seen Russia bypass major cities without trying to take them (apart from cities impossible to bypass). And there is a good reason for this, urban warfare (i.e. fighting in town or cities) is a real pain for modern armoured forces, especially when attacking. You are exposed to small groups of fighters, booby traps and snipers. So usually, attacking in urban environment you are left with two possibilities, clear building after building which takes times and men or obliterate the city. While the russian army bypassed every urban environment they could, they went for the destruction of other urban environment. But as I said, Ukraine is far less densely populated than Taiwan. Thus, when you factor in urban warfare, amphibious warfare and mountain warfare, you are left with a clusterfuck that takes time, men and logistic to take. While the alternative means the total destruction of Taiwan.
This is exactly why the PRC has considered using the PAP during the hypothetical invasion, the People's Armed Police is much more prepared for urban combat compared to the PLA or Russian military. It would be foolish to think that China isn't learning from Russia's mistakes.
@@thelieutenant7732 I totally agree that every army is currently learning from what is happening. I just wanted to outline the overlook urban warfare component of invasion of Taiwan
@@magnem1043 Go read up on Iwo Jima and Okinawa in WWII. The US bombarded both with battleships and aircraft for weeks before the invasion and reduced them to barren wastelands. But they barely killed any of the defenders because they were hiding in tunnels dug into the mountains. Taiwan has these tunnels too (many actually dug by Japan in WWII), and has far more of them defending a far larger area. China can’t just bomb out the defenders. It would be a bloody cave-by-cave struggle that would last for months if not years. And that’s assuming the US didn’t get involved.
@@bluemarlin8138 go read up on japanese invasion of taiwan 1895. an amphibious operation by japan that took less than 5 months with japanese losses fraction of taiwanese. and china is a lot closer to taiwan than mainland japan was.
It seems that way, difficult to invade and easy to defend, but in early last century, the Europeans invaded and occupied Taiwan. They renamed Taiwan to Formosa (beautiful in Spanish), the Chinese sailed across the strait and kicked the Europeans out to the ocean and the Chinese renamed Formosa back to Taiwan.
@@monk786 because no in that time was able to stop them, but if china want to invade Taiwan then china will have to fight the usa and it's allies in Asia
@@monk786 It was easy for Taiwan to be invaded 300 years ago because only the indigenous people were protecting Taiwan. After World War II, Chiang Kai-shek led 600,000 troops to defend Taiwan, making it difficult for Taiwan to be invaded. The Chinese People's Liberation Army has failed to attack Taiwan twice. Because of the shadow of failure, the Chinese People's Liberation Army has not dared to attack Taiwan again for decades.
Interesting point about the US WWII invasion plan, and the conclusion that the island is such an extremely difficult target. That was based on a depth of practical experience of amphibious landings that no modern military can match.
Amphibious landing craft is the easy part. The hard part is driving from surf to shore. See Andrew Hills book Wading Ashore for the development leading up to D-Day…
Words to key on when looking for signs of bad information: Interesting...the opposite of boring and says just as much about the vanilla person behind it. Extremely...Trying too hard to make a point out of a detail. We finish with a Superiority Statement that relies on 80 year old info and attempts to apply it to current situations. Was it an advantage that educated men used Intelligence info on weather and geography to keep their man safer? The alternative was a Supreme Leader being infallible. That's what our adversaries had to overcome. Strict adherence to the Lunatic at the Top. This video plays like the Farmers Almanac reads. I think you should reconsider the military objectives of both China and Russia. Everyone keeps assuming that they want to occupy Tiawan and Ukraine. I think that they would be nearly as happy with them GONE. For some one who wants to use Math for War, I suggest you recalculate using Subtraction from Earth instead of Addition to a Nation. Military always have problems setting up their Word Problems.
Yeah that was definitely a miscommunication between writer and editor there lol, that was dumb. It's probably not all him. Otherwise it would've been right probably
"Conscript armies are more apathetic and less effective" except when it's their home on the line. I think we have seen in Ukraine just how hard it is to break someone's morale when A: you're trampling their stuff and B: they hated your even before that
Home on the line means not only means motivation, but knowledge of terrain. Some Russian forces allegedly used outdated paper maps since commercial GPS does not have level of detail needed for military use.
unfortunately, only the ruling elite and those vested interest would tell you how the people love them and hate their enemy. come to think of it, who you would hate more, some 1 on the other side of the sea, and bunch of cronies suxking your blood. Ukraine is virtually in a civil war for years, while taiwan, if you follow their news, are debating if soldiers should trained under hot sun, or should rest when its too hot.
A well trained soldier will have no problem dealing with a mad civilian in 10 out of 10 cases. The only reason Ukraine has appeared so valiantly tough is because Russia has been sending in essentially untrained teenagers up until a couple weeks ago. Now that special forces are on the ground, you see nothing of mad civilians taking on soldiers.
@@yzy8638 I would hate the one saying my nation has no right to exist, destroys my home, kills my children and rapes my wife. Yes there are a few in Ukraine who would rather live under Putin. The majority don't.
When people say Taiwan is similar to Ukraine they speak in the sense that US and the rest of the world will not be involved militarily not referring to the difficulty to invade. It's been made pretty clear before that invasion is not going to be walk in the park and most likely very brutal.
@@markcoleman7246 I think being the right thing to do is a good reason, also Ukraine exports 12% of world's food supply and 6th largest steel exporter. I think it also ties into politics, I think realistically speaking US hold so much military power even China takes Taiwan, it would not dare to pick a fight with the US, so I don't think it would be preferred by the US voters to defend Taiwan against China or Russia, that could potentially strike US soil, true Taiwan supplies a large percentage of advanced chips are made in Taiwan, but I think US most likely already have the technology and skills to supply, just not the plants, it will just take time to catch up again and probably raise prices on many goods in the process, and TSMC has already begun construction of factories in the US I think partially reimbursed by the US government to prepare for this type of situation. But don't get me wrong It would be nice if US can back us up, but just saying we are not and should not be counting on it.
It depends on who you are talking about. Many Chinese nationalists saying this don't think it'll be a big deal invading Taiwan. The latest I've heard from a retired PLA general was they can take over Taiwan in 3 days. Even about what you said is not the same. Ukraine has very little value to US interest, while Taiwan does due to their high tech industry does. The US is also more focused on China while Russia has become a sideshow
@Nathan 556 but would the American people risk a nuclear escalation with an unpredictable dictatorship? As of now US can intercept 225 icbms (according to estimation by infograpgics channel) and China according to the US now has over 450 so in the event nuclear escalation happens earth might be looking at a total nuclear fallout. Worse than having no chips, and I feel like even if China ends up unable to take the island they would destroy the factories, as we have seen in Ukraine, them dictators have no problem striking civilian buildings, so if a war breaks out, we are petty much guaranteed to have no high end chips from Taiwan. But if Taiwan can be defended at least trade routes through Taiwan straits won't be sanctioned. I am not from the US so I can't speak for them but if you are, would you be in support of US getting involved with actual US troops?
6:33 Going from a 3:1 attacker to defender ratio to a 24:8 ratio isn't actually changing anything, that isn't how force multipliers work in this context. You wanted to leave the defender number unchanged.
@@Tanky98 So, ratios, like fractions, are always equal to their lowest common forms. When an attacker receives a "Force Multiplier" from something like "advanced armor" that reduces enemy effectiveness, or "longer range weapon systems" that allows them to kill the defender from out of range, the Defender Required Troops (the 1 in 3:1) is increased, leading to a different fractional ratio, like 3:2, or something more fancy like 3:1.5 (which becomes 6:3, which becomes 2:1), or 3:1.4 (which becomes 15:7, because ratios and fractions don't like decimals jelly in their peanut butter) and so on. When the defender receives the advantage, as is discussed in the video, the Attacker Required Troops number (the 3) increases. If both sides receive advantages that literally and directly offset each other, nothing has actually changed about the situation. Going from 3:1 -> 24:8 is saying "The defenders are eight times as effective, and the attackers are eight times as effective, meaning they have the same odds as winning as before the changes." It reduces right back down to 3:1. These ratios tell you roughly how many times bigger one army needs to be compared to the other to have a roughly equal chance of winning. US Infantry military doctrine is literally to avoid combat whenever possible unless you outnumber the enemy 3 men to 1 man. Could be 30 men in a platoon vs 10 men in a field, could be literally 3 to 1, could be 30,000 vs 10,000, doesn't matter. As you add trenches and bunkers and indirect fire supports to the defending side, those 10 men become more able to hold back increasingly more troops. Might actually need a company to take the spot, which is 120 vs 10, or 12:1. Helpful?
This invasion, if it happens, could possibly do more damage to the global economy than the Russia-Ukraine war, mainly because TSMC have partnerships US based tech and consumer electronics companies like Apple & Intel (about 25% of TSMC's revenue comes from Apple which is about US$17b). Due to Taiwan's importance in the semiconductor industry and partnerships with companies in the West, if the invasion happens, you can almost guarantee the US will get involved. But outside of the semiconductor and tech talk, the geography of Taiwan makes this geopolitical tension a double-edged sword as it means that China could struggle with invading Taiwan since they are an island, and have irregular coastlines. However, they can easily declare a naval blockade as they do not border any countries in SE Asia. If China do go ahead with this invasion, I'd imagine it would be done with a somewhat similar approach to how Russia invaded Ukraine.
You can only declare a naval blockade if you are willing to sink any ship coming to the destination. Taiwan is not like current Russia and Ukraine, where the Black Sea and Azov sea only have 1 route to go through, that Turkey and Russia, respectively, can easily block it. For Taiwan they sit right in Pacific Ocean, there is no clear gate that China can block incoming ships from coming, but rather only Taiwanese can block the beaches. So China have to resort to sinking ships as warning, if they are willing to make any kind of blockade. Yeah, sinking US, Japan or Australia ships, good luck doing that without declaring war on them.
@@anhkhoanguyen8562 they can sink all our ships easily with the new weapons. It is obviously a huge risk but they have the power to enforce a blockade with OTH hypersonic missiles
“In reality, the war was never meant to be won, but to be continuous. The war isn’t waged by one nation against another, but by the ruling classes against their own population.” Got that from my reading of 1984.
Personally I find the book “Brave New World” to be more inline with the modern era since it goes on about consumption of entertainment and dumbing down the population as a way of control but they both talk about brainwashing and absolute power as they aren’t too different both have the citizen seeing the whole as a body and them as it’s cells in a sense.
Just found your site PM. Straight question: if you cancel Trump at 11:30 because you dislike his politics, are you really that different from the CCP which has always done the same to nationalist Taiwan? If you have any sense you'll correct your video very quickly.
LOL, it wasn't a mistake. It was a joke. Why is it always on the left to take the high road and avoid being petty and childish, when pettiness and childnishness are the entire GOP playbook? The left should kee doing childish things like this. If "liberal tears" is a political platform, then trolling republicans should be as well.
I agree he should have included Trump, but an individual freely expressing their biased view this way is completely different from a country forcing their biased view on the population.
To be fair, Russia and Ukraine parted ways. China (PRC) and Taiwan (RoC) have not parted ways, the division is a result of a civil war and they both claim each other's territory and consider themselves the sole legitimate government of China.
exactly, but those TH-camr for propaganda doesn't care about facts. In their constitution, both Mainland China (PRC) and Taiwan China (ROC) write "the country(China) must achieve reunification". Also, most countries in the world do recognise Taiwan as a part of China.
Guess China would be better with the Taiwan Gov. But we rly want a China that strong? Modern armed 2 the teeth and western unfriendly? Naaaaa thats why we keep the Red guys in Power cause they stupid
@@raro344 Ukraine broke with Russia by way of a Russo-phobic coup that led to civil war. Something Russia secretly warned might happen back in 2008 (wikileaks ukraine).
Sorry but this video doesn't capture the PRIMARY points very well at all. Allow me to point them out: 1) For the past decades, China was poor and its military was simply not strong enough. A single US carrier group could take on the entire Chinese air force. Its only in recent years their military has become much stronger along with their economy. That is one of the reasons why they haven't attacked. 2) They also haven't attacked because its written in their law that they MUST use force ONLY if there is zero possibility of a peaceful resolution. 3) Finally, and most importantly, this has nothing to do with CCP or not. No matter which party controls China, Taiwan has always been a part of China as a whole. In Taiwan's law, they also consider Taiwan as part of the whole China. If the military power of Taiwan and mainland China switched places, Taiwan would also seek to reunify with the rest of China. End of the day, its a civil war that never ended, plain and simple. Those are the core points and the rest of the points mentioned in the video simply isn't that relevant in the grand scheme of things.
What point were you trying to make at 6:20 about defender's advantage? It starts at 1 defender per 3 atackers ratio and then climbs to 8-24, which is the same thing.
The point being made is that the ratio of defender to attacker is 1:3, and when it is scaled to the level of entire active military of Taiwan (scaling up means multiplying), it becomes 200000 Taiwanese soldiers to 600000 Chinese soldiers. China will have to ferry 600000 Troops just in order to encroach and get a hold of the coast of Taiwan. That's like 30% of the entire military in one amphibian invasion
The elephant in the room is either Taiwan or "the Republic of China" is recognised as a sovereign state by countries leaning on her, not like Ukraine. Don't underestimate this difference. It means many International laws do not apply to Taiwan by default. And it also means Taiwan will have to declare itself as a sovereign state if China attacks. It will put the whole world in an either-Taiwan-or-China situation, which is completely different from the Ukriane scenario. It will be much more dangerous.
Uh, I'm pretty sure a ratio of 24:8 still simplifies to 3:1. I get what you meant, it could be 4.2 attackers to 1 defender, but the fractions are funny.
@@PolyMatter Why is Trump omitted from the list of presidents? Why did you joke about Russia's GDP being "formerly" 9.5x that of Ukraine? Unless you're under the assumption that Western sanctions will affect Russia's GDP more proportionally than Ukraine's current destruction, then I really can't see how you made that claim. You also falsely claimed that Ukrainian civilian resistance causes slowdown for Russia. This is false. It's Western aid that causes slowdown for Russia. You also falsely claimed that tractors were an obstacle to Russia. Again, it's a joke based on a false premise. You can make that joke on your circle jerk platform, but don't make it in a video where you're (seemingly) trying to gain trust and educate others. You then continue by claiming Russia's position on the world stage is similar to that of North Korea. I didn't know being part of the G20, part of OPEC+, and a major oil exporter (doesn't matter where they're exporting to) is a North Korean-esque world power. I have a feeling you unironically use Twitter, as these jokes based on false premises seem to originate and stay on that toxic platform (where 65% of all information is considered false). Why are these weird inaccuracies showing up in your video? This was the first PolyMatter video I've seen where there is explicit bias, and flat out omissions of information (as cryptic as they are).
@@PeterNjeim it's quite sad to see what he's doing now. The world is literally starving and the entire world economy is imploding because Russia is the biggest energy and food exporter and the western world decided to say "okay we're gonna starve ourselves".
I had not heard the concept of China using Taiwan as a convenient "nationalist enthusiasm button" before. Now that you pointed it out, it seems so very obvious. I have lived and worked in both Taiwan and Shanghai so I would like to compliment you on how well you have researched, understood and characterized each side. Well done!
However it is the other way around. Very little about Taiwan is mentioned in mainland China media. Let alone in textbooks. Nothing negative at all. While Anti-China became the mainstream propaganda of ruling DPP to attract “nationalism” and votes in Taiwan. And to please the puppet master
- "I had not heard the concept of China using Taiwan as a convenient "nationalist enthusiasm button" before." Are you sure you haven't heard before that governments are using external threats - real or made-up ones - to raise nationalism? The only new thing here is the word "button" (which is just a colourful way to refer to repetition). The maker of this video seems to like to make it sound like he is personally bringing something new to the subject when he is just presenting ideas already well established by others.
@11:30 why is 2018 empty on the chart of US presidents/administrations? The administration that was conveniently left off this chart was one of the most staunch critics on many of China's policies in the last several decades. I am assuming this may be due to certain bias's relating to US politics, and I really hate to assume. Would be nice when people are trying to lay out certain facts, they do so with integrity, not allowing personal bias to interfere.
To the person that wrote the factually correct comment that he was the first to not kowtow to CCPhina . The social media overlords do not like the truth, therefore they have hidden your comment from other users to view.
I noticed it, too. The omission was, of course, politically motivated. When I see things like this, I just question the reliability of any information provided by the channel.
@@prabuddhad Absolutely the same for me. To blatantly omit certain information _for any reason,_ will lead me to question one's integrity and credibility with all that they do.
Which does not sound like much but take a look at it on google streets/ satellite images and compare with live map etc. and you realize that this ”steppe” is filled with rows of trees which can conceal units and make a clear view of the terrain hard for ground forces without good reconnaissance. It’s a lot less steppe than people may assume and flat can include small hills that make advancing difficult. There are also many small villages which, for obvious reasons, are ideal to set up ambushes etc.
It's all US propaganda, false information, hyping up the Taiwan issue without talking about historical reasons. War is now a war of information, electronics, drones. And there is no need for China to attack Taiwan militarily. Just beat the US and Taiwan will naturally return to China.
Here's another perspective : The reason why China wants Taiwan is exactly the reason that it establishes the legitimacy of the CCP, instead of using Taiwan to bolster its waning popular support. Historically if you look in the past, China had always depended on a "mandate of heaven" to claim legitimacy of ruling the Chinese mainland, that is if someone can reunite all Chinese lands, they can claim themselves to be the emperor and ruler. There is also a name for time between the mid 1800s to the early 1900s in Chinese when China fought the opium wars : "百年耻辱" (A hundred years of disgrace). China had been fractured and split up between western colonial powers, Japanese imperialism, warlordism, and banditry during the 19th century, and even during the civil war both the nationalist and the communist knew that they would never repeat something like this ever again. Which can also explain why China intervened in the Korean War when the US closed in on its borders not knowing whether they would stop there. It a social and historical problem, the only reason Taiwan had not declared independence is not because of the CCP threatening it, but rather they both have agreed to play the legitimacy game, which independence would destroy this game altogether. Strategically Taiwan is part of the 1st Island chain, blockading China from ever reaching the Pacific ocean, and even if they do, they would be closely monitored by US and US allied navies. 70% of China's economically productive areas are located on the Eastern coastline, where the US has hundred of air force bases, naval bases, and open to attack from the US or even Taiwan. This poses a strategic problem to China, just as Ukraine to Russia. That being said, Taiwan is not a made up issue by the CCP to claim the island, and in strategic terms, even if it would cost millions of men taking the island, if it would improve Chinese strategic standing in the Pacific, an invasion would be likely.
China had a much bigger piece of land in what is now eastern Russia - but they focused on invading Taiwan and not eastern Russia because it’s manufactured for nationalism support. Also, China had Mongolia but they aren’t threatening to invade Mongolia.
There is an old Ilocan proverb. When your ass itches, they are fighting in China. The Chinese are always fighting each other, even before the Spanish. 😃😃😃😃😃
That's assuming China survives intact once the Taiwanese insurrection gets quelled, which could take years if not generations. The Mainland depends on imports for food and fuel, and sanctions or not civilian ships will be scared off and China's global customers are going to more aggressively seek permanent alternatives. More likely unrest at home over food prices and quality (think Shanghai except everywhere and more defiant) will flare up and only grow as rations get taken from periphery security forces to keep more core functions fed -- the PLA is not nearly big enough to do battle with the rest of China.
In the end though, the PRC prefers peaceful reunification. War would take a heavy toll on both the PRC and the island of Taiwan, drastically lowering the cost-reward ratio. China isn't lying when it says it prefers peaceful reunification.
The reason there's more searches about an invasion in the US now than in the past can be easily explained by the simple fact that the internet makes people outside the region more aware of international events than in years and decades past. We now hear about things around the world more, and have the ability to look it up far easier and more frequently.
No war is needed to conquer Taiwan. When 150 warships around the island, it remains isolated and without resources. It will be the inhabitants of Taiwan who will raise the white flag, without having to fire a cannon shot. Passive siege. 3 months? 6 months? 2 years? patience, the weapon to win is patience.
@@Chan-Lin-Tao yup, and the USA will close all 3,500 Wal Marts as a result of such actions, no Chinese goods will enter or be sold in the country, and China will suffer the greatest economic collapse in its history. Joking of course, but we see in Russia today, China's future, a pariah state, which eventually no Westen nation will trade with.
@@ronschlorff7089 the United States is close to default. 30% of the government bonds are owned by the Bank of China. Just one click and down ... ----------------------------------------- this is the real reason they want to destroy China, they can always use the 11,000 nuclear warheads. They have already shown the world how the evil Empire thinks. Hiroshima and Nagasaki are still a witness. ---------------------------------------------- In the future you will have some surprises, when you realize that walmart is just a chain of shops and nothing more. We have lived 150,000 years without walmart. :D
@@Chan-Lin-Tao Japan's fate was only a warning to the world, "DO NOT fuck with us"! China knows that well; they are not suicidal! You have a much longer history; "Peking man" is at least a million years old. He had no markets! LOL ;D
6:38 thats not how ratios work... 24 : 8 is literally the same as 3 : 1. if you want to express how the number of troops china would need to invade multiplies, you only need to multiply their side of the ratio: 24:1.
Doesn't matter. When dealing with Taiwan I got the feeling the true ratio would be 1:0. Taiwan has no reliable force of any kind, and more specifically no reliable soldiers, which is an even bigger issue than their decade old equipments.
@@B3Band he didn`t say 24/8 is not "valid". That tells me you're bad at reading comprehesion PolyMatter even acknowledged the mistake in an earlier thread.
@@B3Band fun project for you… lets simplify 24:8. and when you have done that tell me how much that differs from 3:1. i never said 24 : 8 is not a ratio. i said multiplying both sides of the ratio is not how you express the ratio getting heavier in favor of one side. in this example 24 : 8 is the exact same as 3 : 1. but i regret pointing this mistake out since according to @A\zzor polymatter already communicated this mistake
even if there was any basis to you claims, literally every military analyst and even the chinese military themselves disagree with you , but, go off i guess
Looking at the timeline of American presidents at 11:31, does anyone else find it odd that the name Donald Trump was conspicuously left out? What gives, polymatter?
5:24 Putting just the US for the normandy landing is a proper "fuck you" to the rest of allies that landed their. especially since youre willing to put "U.S. & U.K." for the failed Anzio landing
It's all US propaganda, false information, hyping up the Taiwan issue without talking about historical reasons. War is now a war of information, electronics, drones. And there is no need for China to attack Taiwan militarily. Just beat the US and Taiwan will naturally return to China.
5:06 Normandy a 'US invasion'? UK and Canada provided more troops, ships and equipment though... 11:32 just because you didn't like Trump, doesn't mean he wasn't president. Sorry.
What people often neglect is that the Allies managed to land 160,000 troops on D-Day on a coastline which is much more suitable than Taiwan's. Taiwan won't be fighting a 2 million man army, they'll be fighting as many as China are able to successfully land. This is a fundamental math problem that is not easily solved by technology or military spending.
I think it's a huge gamble for China. If the U.S. decides to step in, they might not have a chance to land anything. The U.S. has like 6 less nuclear submarines than it considers adequate to completely stop a maritime invasion. That's only 69 subs compared to 75 which it considers enough. If the U.S. doesn't step in, then they have to worry about landing enough troops. Also, China doesn't have enough of the purpose built military landing craft that the U.S. had on D-Day. If they did try to take Taiwan, I don't think it will be like D-Day.
Yes, because China will definitely use D-day strategy to invade Taiwan... Also, by that logic, imperial Japan would also be repelled in invading Taiwan.
China will probably just bomb taiwan back to the stone ages and force people to leave the cities. The whole video assumes China wants to take Taiwan and hold it. It really does not. China just need to depopulate the island.
The Ukrainian conflict has made me look at these 'intimidating' military parades very differently, considering the hardware is so easily defeated by modern anti-armour weapons.
If Chinese claims about their hypersonic weapons are true, do not underestimate their capabilities. You know, T-72 tanks are not the same as a Dongfeng 17 glide vehicle traveling at 7,000 mph.
I never saw those military parade anything special, if you are powerful why do you need to show off your military's with parades makes no sense. US don't even waste time doing that expect to appreciate the men and women in service which is Veteran's day, we don't show weapons cause its the men and women that makes a difference.
@@HTV-2_Hypersonic_Glide_Vehicle Well it never seen combat to know what works and what doesn't therefore compare to the notable MBTs Abrams, Challenger, Leopard, Lereyic, and Merkava so I'm treating it them same as a T72. US overestimated Russia cause they thought they was still Soviet Union powerful.
15:10 lol what? Russia was put on level of North Korea because of the sanctions and pays an enormous price? Not a propaganda at all. For a half of year Russian economy shrinked by 0.5% while the US and especially Europe experiencing huge decrease of industrial output and inflation. The 2008 crisis was much more devastating for Russia when economy lost about 8%.
I just wanted to point out two minor corrections in your video. The first that you kind of also addressed was basically that because the Taiwanese people aren't worried, the West shouldn't get worried either. we saw a similar thing happen in Ukraine because Russia was threatening an invasion several times in the past and it never happened. Even as troops were amassing the Ukrainian people denied that they thought Russia would actually invade. The second point is that China is simply beating a drum of war constantly with no real threat to Taiwan. on the contrary, China has been making slow steady progress towards an army that is capable of doing an amphibious landing. this comes in the form of a lot of spending, completely revamping their main small arms, the development of specialized marine divisions as part of the army that as far as I know no other military has an equivalent for, etc. these are all long-term investments that are very well measured and don't fall into the model of beating the drum of war, this is more of a stealth buildup behind a facade of simply beating a drum of war.
2nd one is not true, chinese military isn't good, they have poor quality equipments, their fighter jet is knock of version of American jets, and taiwan has purchased billions of dollars worth of military equipment from USA and other nations too, besides taiwan's geography is just too hard to attack, they can easily defend the only costs where the attack comes from
Yeah, one frustratingly lax thing I've encountered with some people is that when I try to highlight the sharp turn in hostility and nationalism that coincides with the term of jinping, a lot of people are fast to handwave it away with platitudes like "china has always been crazy, they never changed"
Very good points, both. China has invested a lot into amphibious technologies, and does yearly amphibious exercises, so it's not all just empty threats.
China would likely first annex some of Taiwan's smaller islands that lie closer to the Chinese mainland. We likely would not see a full-on amphibious assault of the main island until after they secure all the outlying islands.
If China breaks the status quo and invade smaller islands Kinmen and Matsu, Taiwan can then break the status quo , updates its constitution to change its official name to Taiwan and establish official relations with other democratic countries.
They would never, this is the most foolish analysis. Firstly, Kinmen and the Matsu islands are already the most "Pro-China" subdivisions of Taiwan, and always vote blue, and can be considered "deep blue". China would never throw forces at them. Secondly, if China had to launch an invasion, it would mean the status quo has been broken, either by Taiwan's declaration of formal independence, or their own doing. Wasting time on those islands whose weaponry has little shelter (not very mountainous islands) and can be easily avoided and suppressed by air would only give Taiwan time to mobilize an effective response making any main-island Taiwan invasion magnitudes more difficult. I suggest you read up more on the nuances of the situation.
@@sw36jl they need too because it's within spitting distance of the Chinese mainland and they've been embarrassed there twice now. China would have to do something about them with their current propaganda
As you point out, China has been saber-rattling for seven decades. But that means Taiwan had seven decades to come up with a plan to defend themselves. And we can see what a difference eight years of preparation have made for Ukraine
China’s military has no combat experience in comparison to Russia who is always at war somewhere, I say this to say the first sign of china engaging in a military pursuit may not go well for it
Panic is a double edged sword for China, in the short term it makes them seem tougher and get more influence, but in the long term it makes other countries over prepare for the perceived Chinese giant, despite it being mostly hot air
Most people also forget that Ukraine is mostly landlocked (except for her Southern portion in the Black Sea) but Taiwan is surrounded by a big ocean - the Pacific Ocean. The reason why Ukraine is able to keep fighting and NATO & the US don't have to fight Russia directly is because of the land routes - they can easily send supplies and military equipment directly into Ukraine to support their fight with Russia. But, when it comes to Taiwan, things get pretty tough. Supplying Taiwan in a middle of a hypothetical war with China would be nearly impossible. China has the largest navy in the world (in terms of the number of ships) and has a formidable air force - one that is enough to subdue entire airforces in East Asia. With only an air and sea route into Taiwan, the US and the Allies (namely Japan and most possibly Australia) would have to fight their way to get to Taiwan. They can't sit back and supply Taiwan with lots of military and humanitarian aid without the Chinese attacking or blocking the passage of neutral ships and aircraft attempting to enter Taiwan during a hypothetical war scenario. I think this is one area that is often overlooked - the geographical differences of both countries: Taiwan and Ukraine. So I will leave my comment here! :D
Luckily the US navy is the strongest in the world. While its air force is also the steongest in the world not to mention that the second strongest airforce in the world is the US navy's. Also Japan also has a significant navy while japanese, korean and filipino naval bases can be used as springboards by the US warmachine.
@@jamescawl6904 The US military is the strongest in the world, yes, but they are quite spread thin all around the globe. The US does have significant forces in Japan and Korea but those aren't sufficient to counter China. China, however, is able to concentrate most of its military in Asia, which makes it much more difficult for the US to defend Taiwan if China decides to invade. As for Japan, yes they have a pretty formidable navy which will add on to the headaches for the Chinese. So military wise, it will be a very big gamble for the Chinese to invade. But the US cannot afford to underestimate China. Whenever China sees the opportunity, they'll seize it quickly and sometimes, maybe too quickly.
@@captainbroady True. But if china ever tries to invade taiwan their economy built on export manufacturing will come crumbling down while all imports will be blocked. china is at a food deficit while not having the natural resources to sustain their manufacturing capacity. The result will be that china most likely will overwhelm the taiwanese with naval invasions and airborne assaults within a short amount of time but then china will not only starve they will also be unable to sustain their warmachine after the embargoes.
Video said that there could be atleast a month to predict the invasion, so in my uneducated guess, they could be supplied within that period for as much as needed. Would that be enough, idk......
8:39 To be fair, the Allies expected Germany to attack through Belgium, were prepping for it, and still got shit on. That said, while all these statistics may provide indications of the possibilities, it’s all unfortunately on paper. Many initial analyses expected Ukraine to fall relatively quickly but it’s clearly not the case. If any country truly has any will to resist, any invasion’s success will likely require the genocide of the population or an extended period of undisturbed occupation, both of which are impractical. That said, the fate of Taiwan rests on the Taiwanese themselves; no one can help one who can’t help themselves. If they are putting up any meaningful resistance, they have a likelihood of remaining free.
That's apples and oranges though. They expected Germany to concentrate in Belgium, but didn't expect Germany to send the bulk of its armoured and motorised forces through southern Belgium and Northern France to cut them off, they expected Germany to essentially copy its 1914 plan. They were totally unprepared for the plan Germany used. That said being prepared on paper isn't the same as being able to implement that plan, I agree with you.
@@DmitriPolkovnik while you’re not necessarily wrong, one must recognize that hindsight is 20/20. If the enemy does everything you expected, what’s the point of fighting? The results are known before anything even happens. Why do you think there is so much emphasis on intelligence and deception? As another comparison, we can look at physics taught in classrooms vs physics in practical applications: the former is all assuming ideal conditions with anything not ideal generally being explicitly given while the latter must consider everything that could happen. The reason classroom physics is structured this way is so that elementary learners can grasp difficult concepts with known answers. The difference between those that win and those that don’t between fairly matched opponents is the ability to adapt. The Mechelen Incident already gave the Allies the opportunity to recognize what the Germans actually did. That said, they were not totally unprepared; they simply chose not to see everything.
I think a big factor to consider why China wouldn't invade Taiwan, is how invested China is in the global economy. They'd lose more influence and power through war with Taiwan than they are gaining by being a economical superpower.
China being heavily export driven and deeply connected with the global economy both means sanctions would be devastating against China and that sanctions would have a hugely negative impact on every country in the world, much more so that Russia that has an economy smaller than Italy.
@Anderson, R fake. anglo propaganda. only country with concentration camps is america. despite bring only 4% of the worlds population it has 20% of total prisoners in the world. anything anglos accuse others of doing, they are actually projecting and are doing it themselves.
@Anderson, R They have had those camps since the Cultural Revolution in the 1970s, yet they still were accepted into the global economy. An invasion of the only place on earth that has most of the world's cutting edge semiconductor production however, is different.
Just wondering PolyMatter, in the list of presidents that you showed in this video, Why is former President Donald J. Trump left out of your list, but every other president is shown. What is your reason for leaving him out, because he was the president.
I noticed that too. It throws his information into question if he's being that childish. I'm not even a fan of DJT but cmon PolyMatter, it makes your video look questionable.
@@RhodiumMoviesMC I would assume it's an editing mistake - otherwise why leave a conspicuous blank space? Just put Obama and Biden next to each other and don't draw attention to it. Ockham's razor says it's a mistake and not a revisionist conspiracy lol Plus tbh it's a bit of a crap graphic - with mistakes on Carter's lack of party symbol, inconsistency with naming schemes, weird gradient layering between JFK and Nixon, etc
As a Taiwanese I just wanna say thank you to PolyMatter for providing Information. I’ve seriously become so numb to this topic and videos like this really helps summarize quality information and raise awareness regarding this concerning topic.
Don’t worry it’s not gonna happen, btw secure a pathway away from Taiwan in case anything happens, and secure a pathway from your destination, always have 2 backup places to go to in case your country goes bad, no place is safe.
@@orneryokinawan4529 China uses diplomatic pressure and economics to annex territories, they never use military because their military is weak, they probably would lose a war against Mongolia alone.
resume* The civil war was put on hold when ROC moved to Taiwan, at the time it was impossible for PRC to invade. It's literally just going to be part 2.
really bro? 11:34 still pushing some sort of narrative? last i remember donald trump was president after obama, and you just left him out? i would ask why but im sure i wouldnt care for the answer. really makes the viewer ask what else you left out.
Great video. I think though, it’s too optimistic (which is to say, I think China is a lot more likely to invade and a lot more likely to succeed than the video does) - China has been beating the drums of war for a long time, but only recently actually acquired the sort of strength they have now, and they’ve become much more aggressive internationally as well.
I disagree with your synopsis on Britain not having air superiority in the Falklands. Britain may have had less planes but the quality of equipment and training gave Britain that superiority over Argentina
From a strictly technical point of view, Britain never really achieved the textbook definition of air superiority, which is the ability to severely restrict the enemy air forces' ability to conduct air operations over the theatre of conflict (with air supremacy being the ability to more or less totally deny any air ops). As it happens, the Argentinian air force chose themselves to conduct fewer operations over time, as losses and the relative futility of continuing to try became apparent, but should they have had a sudden rush of shit to the brain, they could have kept trying
@@talltroll7092 yeah I was about to say like Britain was using harriers to Argentina’s A4s sure, but when you have air superiority a plane doesn’t shoot exorcet missiles and sink ships then strafe your landing party and get away with it 😂 Britain did good but air superiority wasn’t really fully achieved. That was such a strange but interesting war.
@@talltroll7092 The UK wiped the floor with the Argentine air force. They were so easily beaten that the UK could fly sorties over the Falkland Islands which it had not military right to do.
Britain didn't achieves air superiority, the skies over the Falklands were still very much contested between the two. Sure the brits had the tech and skill on their side, but the argies had the numerical superiority, and not that relevant tech gap, and were pretty much operating from home, refueling from C-130 tanker planes along the way. The argentineans were also able to perform night bombing raids over british positions with Camberra bombers, soemthing they wouldn't be able to if the brits had full air superiority.
“No matter your political affiliations, you can’t say China hasn’t had the full range of American administrations to choose from” Polymatter list all the presidents and associated party from the 1900’s until present day. Meanwhile 2018 = blank space 😂
Still scratching my head on why he did that. Seems very out of character even if he hates the orange man. Maybe YT algorithm related or something? If he is being petty that will just make people lose respect towards him.
I too noticed this and was enjoying the piece up to this point. Any information after the fact became suspect by such a glaring omission. History is history whether you like it or not.
I find it funny 2 commenters get offended by the Orange Man missing :D So serious & stern ^^ News flash: Trump acted like a joke (often) & you are surprised the world treats his presidency as a joke? :D Some people...
@@elektrotehnik94 this is not about offended or not. If you can censor such a well-known objective fact. How can your opinion worth considering to sane people with common sense. Like other comments said China is building an army specifically capable of conquering Taiwan, and most of Chinese won’t consider the “might be” military action an invasion. They consider it “taking back” Taiwan. You can easily ask any Chinese from mainland “Is Taiwan part of China” 99% you will get an answer “yes, Taiwan is part of China.” What if Chinese won’t invade Taiwan? Well, all the skyrocketing spending on aircraft carriers,planes, submarines will become sink capital that served for no purpose waiting for becoming depreciation. Who want a propaganda that Chinese government is harmless? I guess that would definitely not be Donald Trump, the well known orange man. How can you put up a biased glass to omit apparent fact and still believe you conclusions are solid?Btw the land comparison argument made by the video is nonsense, in WW2 Japan invaded China, Germany invaded the entire Europe and the Soviet, why put a pseudo scientific argument to misguide people? Overall this video is of low effort and low quality, I guess even you submit it as an essay to your high school project it would get a C.
He was showing all of the possible presidencies that China could've invaded Taiwan in and Trump was pretty anti-china so that might have been what he was suggesting, though it's still weird
Timemark 11:34, and Polymatters shows me it as revisionist as some of the Dictators it decries. Makes me wonder what else you choose to elide. Unsubscribed
As a Taiwanese who happens to live in Linkou, this video is pretty accurate. Also we do worry about the war more recently, but life goes on and we're used to China's threat. Like they basically send aircrafts to our shoreline everyday and it's not even a news anymore. 🙏🏻peace
If you noticed your comment you questioned yourself and answered yourself, threat is not threat anymore it's become existential matter both for you. Problem is you both don't want peace hard and harsh way. Just being so proud, ignorant to trying to look down each others head. Statements getting sharper everyday, equipment and troops gathering to borders from both sides. If you both don't want peace deeply then war is inevitable, it's just matter of time then. I am just trying to be realistic here.
First of all, Taiwan is a part of China. This is universally acknowledged. In fact, there is no armistice agreement in the civil war between Taiwan and Chinese Mainland. The threats are mutual. Taiwan is not an innocent victim
Chanana I have studied the subject a lot and Taiwan is really hard to invade, China does not have a strong lift or navy, their technology is and equipment, and personnel are untested and they have to attack an island far out in the sea, with a very turbulent waters . And then the CCP is not big gamblers like Putin. CCP have over 50% to lose the war and lose power i China, almost all exports and imports to China can be shut down because it is with ships, just that there is a risk of it happening is a risk it is unlikely CCP will run. Peace :)
Well, taiwan defence is 100% oriented at negating the landings, this year alone after what happened to the cruiser moskva I bet china is somehow concerned about the 200 new harpoon anti ship misiles taiwan has aquired and is polishing in their arsenals. Taiwan is not on permanent "oh my god" mode, but not neglecting defence.
I came into this knowing most of the challenges with invading Taiwain (thankfully) but I hadn't heard about Operation Causeway before. It was a time of desperation and when desperate, people come up with some crazy plans. The fact that Taiwan was considered so costly at a time when America was out for blood really drives home the impossibility of an invasion which I am thankful for. Taiwan is not Ukraine and has been preparing for this fight since the end of WW2. All Taiwan would have to do is hold the line long enough for the Pacific Fleet to get involved and at that point, I'd consider it game over for an invasion.
That is actually the official plan. To hold out long enough for help to arrive. Personally I think that western allies might be unreliable and that Taiwan really needs to be capable of it's own defense without assistance.
I guess you tell the same words to Ukraine last year. Tell me, when Taiwan boombed China mainland and kill ppl in 1950s , when they sealed off the entire coastline of mainland in 1970s, when they took all mainland ppls' tax money and run into that island, where are you?
You are too new at geopolitics, do some simple math. Taiwan is 100 miles from mainland China. It’s 10000 miles from the us mainland. China isn’t going anywhere. Let’s say us successfully prevents China from taking Taiwan. There will be a rearm and 2nd attempt, and a 3rd. And a 4th. It will never fucking end. Taiwan reuniting with China is all but an inevitability. 20 million people even with the help of 320 million. Cannnot defeat 1.5 billion people. Get that into your head
if that invasion happens, this is going to really affect the semiconductor industry for a very long time as taiwan holds at least 80 to 90 percent of that industry...as well as it home to several big companies like asus, gigabyte and msi.
Not just. Taiwan also supplies China and the United States with chips intended for Military use (drones, planes, missile control & guidance systems, etc.), thus crippling armed forces. Plus, replacing such specialized infrastructure would take decades due to how darn specialized such equipment really is. Big multi-trillion dollar companies rely solely on Taiwan's TSMC for production, a company (i.e. TSMC) that dwarves others in terms of efficiency like Samsung and Intel. From a logical standpoint, invading Taiwan is a terrible, terrible idea. But as history has made it painfully clear time and time again, Wars _aren't_ logical. Let's just hope that Xi Jin Ping, is.
@MajorRenegade if china decides to attack taiwan now....everything goes down to drain...so they better hope the finish it and go full operation by then....
Of the high value semiconductors it is the US economy that creates the most. Medium to lower level is dominated by China. If such a shutdown of the Taiwanese economy was to occur US desktop and micro scale processors would make laptops very popular again and other variations of that.
Russia signed a huge deal with China before war started. China is the only Reason why Russia can ressist sansactions these days. Zelensky insulted every leader in this world without Xi. I don't think Russia can affort to get a warning from China now.
One correction: following the Chinese media, they have never claimed that it is 'easy' to take over Taiwan, it's only some Chinese people online who expresses this sentiment.
Actually, many Chinese "experts", whether it's military experts or economic experts have all claimed that it's so "easy" to take over Taiwan. They are saying that they don't care if they have to bomb the island flat, kill every Taiwanese if Taiwan resists. And it will be like a day trip on the beach. They will start the invasion in the morning, and have dinner in Taipei in the evening.
The PRC government wants to invade Taiwan is mostly at the standpoint of CHINESE(Taiwan also called ROC right? And ROC used to rule the whole China, and Ciang Kai-shek was wanting to elimilate CCP, that's just the same situation but the two sides changed), instead of CCP.
"Here is a larger, more powerful, authoritharian and revisionist bully attacking its' democratic neighbour for nothing more than historical proximity" And this channel is like unbiased or something like that?
@@DommTom Democracy and Authoritarianism are just simply a western propaganda. If they really care about humanity then why they didn't punish Mohammed Bin Salman for killing kashoggi.
There is a huge difference between having military power and projecting military power. And attacking a well fortified island with few possible landing sites requires a massive projection of power. One of the huge problems with Soviet style military doctrine is the lack of sustainable power projection as shown by Russia's inability to supply its own troops over land routes. This task gets much more complicated when you have to cross a body of water (even if it is a mere wide river), and much more so an ocean or sea or strait.
It's especially difficult when there are very few place for landing and very few good times for an amphibious invasion. D-day was still difficult despite the German army literally being shattered with dispersed armored forces An invasion of Taiwan will be far far harder
Another thing since the US actually has replacement fertility lower than Russia, 1 million people moved to the US last year. Less than 4k moved to China or Russia. Thats how the US is going to stay afloat and why its population continues to increase.
@@Matteus2109 Except that's not true. All projections show that by 2050 China will have lost hundreds of millions of people while the USA will gain tens of millions.
@@Matteus2109 Nope, the US only needs a 0.3 increase to stay afloat, the US population has never come close to going down year on year. Chinas decreased by 14k last year and will half by 2070. The US can expect immigrants from very fertile areas of the world, south America and Mexico. As well ad from the middle east, who will never go to China due to genocide. You are correct that much of western Europe bar France is going to have a population shrink but its not like whats happening to China. This would happen to China anyway but then you have to factor the damage of the one child policey and the fact that its uneconomical for Chinese people to have more than 1 kid nowadays. Even if its bad for the west, its a slaughter for China.
@@Matteus2109 Put simply, the US will see a 5-10% reduction. The UK, at worst 25%. China? Absolute slaughter, 50%+ population reduction. And remember, the US has India which is a reliable and growing deterence to China. They're commited to help, four Indian warships joined an American battle group in the south China Sea recently.
@Zach Arb They are only a master at reducing population growth. They removed the one Child policy years ago and child birth rates have continued to go down. Every year there are few women who can give birth and the culture that the Chinese government has pushed for decades mean women now only want one child or often none at all. Their population decline is unavoidable now.
Thank you for this incredibly well done piece. One must not under calculate the certain economic consequences to China should they attempt to invade Taiwan. This alone is the most probable deterrent (factor).
Agreed. Russia is an oil based economy and they always knew they could find a market for their oil (outside a complete blockade, which would be impossible to enforce as Russia could always just use trucks to ship its oil to Kazakhstan and China). Meanwhile China needs NATO and its allies to buy its manufactured goods, which can be built by other countries, albeit at a relatively large cost, for roughly the same price. Russia was set up to be an Autarky apart from its oil exports and doesn't really need imports to satisfy the average Russian citizen. Meanwhile China depends on trade with the outside world to maintain its social contract with its citizens. Lastly China has not been at war since the late 1970s, when it was finishing up a conflict with Vietnam that started under Mao. China has not been in a single war or major armed conflict since it started its economic transformation. That means that China has no real military experience with modern logistics or how its people will handle external conflict.
Actually, in 9:11 there isn't called Linkou beach in Taiwan, we usually say there is ''Taipei Port'' or ''Bali'' in the leftside of river, and the other side there is ''Tamsui''
yep, so I guess the main difference is China and Russia. Russia is a declining power, its GDP is like 10% of the China, less than 10% of the US, while china is still developing quite fast,once China get a problem in its economy, then war might be possible.
Good video. Even if it appears that China could or would never invade Taiwan, there's no way to be certain. History is full of military surprises. The French thought they were safe behind their Maginot Line. The U.S. believed the Japanese would never attack Pearl Harbor. A Chinese invasion may seem very impractical, but the Chinese have had decades to consider every last detail, and plan accordingly. Conventional thinking might say an invasion was impossible, but all it takes is one military genius or "out of the box" thinker to make the impossible, possible. France thought the Maginot Line would keep them safe; making a German attack unlikely because it was certain to fail. Instead, all it took was one Erich von Manstein, a relatively minor General, to suggest a different plan for the German attack, and France was defeated and forced to surrender in two months.
Also, I really how political science and foreign policy always emphasizes that humans and by extension states are completely rational and in their self interest. Foreign policy decisions aren't always rational. Instead of marching on Rome and capturing the senate, Hannibal of Carthage ravaged the countryside and lost the war. When Germany invaded the USSR, Stalin told his men not to shoot, hoping irrationally that they were misguided soldiers. Instead of continuing martial law, the US established elections, which ironically got anti-US politicians elected into power(who were usually backed by Iranian-backed Shia militia).The next leader who takes Taiwan will be celebrated in Chinese history as the leader who finished what Mao started. President Xi is looking to make his mark on China and maybe Taiwan will be his "mark"(hopefully he has better judgement and doesn't destabilize the world)
@@BeaverChainsaw Exactly. Misguided or irrational leaders made bad decisions all the time, thinking they can get away with something, or not fully thinking through the consequences. There are plenty of examples: North Korea invaded South Korea in 1950, because a mistaken communication made it seem that the U.S. wasn't committed to defending it. Saddam Hussein invaded Kuwait, because he thought he could get away with it; never believing an international coalition would come together to drive him out. The Argentina government invaded the Falkland Islands, because they didn't believe that England, with it's defense spending severely cut back and Navy weakened, had either the means or willpower to launch a campaign to retake the Islands some 8,000 miles away.
it probably won't be an invasion but a blitz to force a political surrender. If taiwan is faced with the prospect of being reduced to the next yemen it might cave.
The French weren't stupid - they knew that the Germans were going to attack via Belgium. In fact, that was the main purpose of the Maginot Line - to force the Germans to attack via Belgium. There were 2 main reasons for this: 1) Belgium is unlikely to allow the Germans free passage, and a German invasion would get other countries involved. 2) It allowed France to concentrate most of its manpower on the France/Belgium border. But apparently even the France/Belgium border is quite large, because they focused on the wrong part of it, and got steamrolled.
Dissing conscript-heavy militaries is pretty short-sighted. It's basically impossible to field large armies or sustain attrition without conscription, because conscription allows you to build up generations of reservists in waiting.
I love that a US navy admiral that was posted between China and Taiwan reported the tension between two countries heating up. And then proceeded to immediately retire. What a mad lad.
That's the best time to retire. Then when things go pear-shaped you can lament to everyone that holds still for five minutes that if only you'd been in charge everything would be great.
the similarity I found in almost every millitary channel talking about Taiwan is that they all somehow claimed that "Chinese citizens are regularly told their country could easily take Twaiwan in a day". I was wondering how did you all get the same information without any surveys or reference?
@@agentmilton6585 True, Western propaganda is extremely effective. No other population has been so thoroughly brainwashed by their rulers. Propaganda exists everywhere, but only in the West do most people believe everything their government tells them about other countries. That's the reason why Western youtube channels make these kinds of sweeping unbased assertions, it's literally been programmed into their brain.
Thanks for the great feedback on the first episode of my new Nebula Original series. Episode 2 is out now and I think it's even better. This one is about why China is still pursuing Zero-COVID after 900 days and with no end in sight. I've had theories about this for years but feel like it's starting to really crystalize, and the answer is not a pleasant one. If you've been holding off on signing up for Nebula, now is the time to pull the trigger, with the CS + Nebula bundle on sale for less than $1/month right now: curiositystream.com/polymatter
Why is Trump omitted from the list of presidents? Why did you joke about Russia's GDP being "formerly" 9.5x that of Ukraine? Unless you're under the assumption that Western sanctions will affect Russia's GDP more proportionally than Ukraine's current destruction, then I really can't see how you made that claim.
You also falsely claimed that Ukrainian civilian resistance causes slowdown for Russia. This is false. It's Western aid that causes slowdown for Russia.
You also falsely claimed that tractors were an obstacle to Russia. Again, it's a joke based on a false premise. You can make that joke on your circle jerk platform, but don't make it in a video where you're (seemingly) trying to gain trust and educate others.
You then continue by claiming Russia's position on the world stage is similar to that of North Korea. I didn't know being part of the G20, part of OPEC+, and a major oil exporter (doesn't matter where they're exporting to) is a North Korean-esque world power.
I have a feeling you unironically use Twitter, as these jokes based on false premises seem to originate and stay on that toxic platform (where 65% of all information is considered false).
Why are these weird inaccuracies showing up in your video? This was the first PolyMatter video I've seen where there is explicit bias, and flat out omissions of information (as cryptic as they are).
The things China is doing over there should give people in America Perception, yet it doesn't. Most Fascinating. So many people not really Paying Attention.
China just started easing travel restrictions into the country...
I think you should be more precise here and tell people that the basic CS + Nebula bundle won't give them access to your China videos. Since they're Nebula Originals, a subscription upgrade for additional 5 bucks a month is needed.
16:54 "WHY" Of course, you can't see why? Because you don't have all the moving pieces. Now if China's Central Bank is in the Control of the Cabal, The Israel Banking Cartel. That owns All of them!!! Literally!!! Of course, that question is not proven, however, all the evidence still lines up in Israel Tho. How interesting. China can only be seen as an Enemy if they are not doing what Israel tells them to do the way they control every other Country. In every country is a different system, in America is A.I.P.A.C in the UK it's something else. As long as China is bending the Knee everything is Good. Like Putin, that is all part of the Plan. Not to mention prior to the War, the Israeli Prime Minister visited Ukraine a lot leading up to the War. We already know they funded both sides of the world Wars. all just to get Israel and control of all the WOrld's Central Banks. Period. Now, they shrinking the Population of the world. they have a web around the world that has taken Centuries to execute. the world's longest Rally race for Power the world has seen. They control all the Media in almost every Country. In Britain is was Ms.Maxwell's Father Mossad's agent. Media MOgul? The deeper you get, the crazier it gets. the more like a crazy person you sound like. Edwin Snowden is not crazy by a long shot. Its heavily layered. at almost every high level in the Military, in the C.I.A an American with dual Citizenship to America and Israel. How are in fact Mossad agents? there is "Americans" that are in fact Mossad agents, controlling our people In COngress, Most agencies. Chuck Schumer is one of them.
I'll admit, I had my suspicions that Taiwan wasn't Ukraine, and this video just confirms it.
im still not sure... to me, they're the same
just as once i was going to visit italy and ended up in senegal... I still don't know how that happened
Dunno, all eurasians look the same tome :/
@@omargerardolopez3294 ur last name is eurasan
@@GAMER123GAMING I don't think you get the joke
"Taiwanese are less concerned." Reminds me of what I noticed when I worked in Seoul .The South Korean public is way less worried about a North Korean attack than us North Americans. After living there for a few months, I settled into that pattern too and learned it was mostly empty threats, since it makes no strategic or economic sense to attack, not to mention they could lose the support of China (their only ally and lifeline) if they do so, since China does a lot of trade with South Korea. Not to mention the South Koreans and US being a good boogeyman to maintain fear and power over the North Koreans.
The Ukrainians thought the exact same right until Russia finally pulled the trigger and attacked. Complacency is very dangerous. Especially Since unlike Ukraine, Taiwan will not be getting armed once China launches the attack.
Taiwan has lived with Chinese claims over it for over half a century. The public there isn't even mostly for rash independence declarations - their own surveys show only about 10% of the population favors that (half the population favors it eventually, but they're in no hurry). Even the Chinese were mostly content to maintain the status quo - China is even Taiwans' largest trade partner, by far (contrast that with the US and Cuba, an island in a similar position that actually HAS been invaded by the US before, and been sanctioned to oblivion ever since). The current tensions started in 2017 - nothing changed in China then (Xi came to power in 2012), it changed in the US. Specifically Trump came to power and launched an anti-China crusade, which his successor has just continued.
Taiwan isn't about Taiwan, it's about the US (which already has bases close to China, and already allied with Taiwan) versus China.
@@ArawnOfAnnwn If believe that China with it's current rhetoric isn't planning on one day invading Tiawan if they don't agree to a union then you're either very delusional/ignorant or just a CCP shill spouting disinformation.
As a South Korean, I completely agree with your analysis. Still, like the video says, nobody really knows what is going through these madmen's heads, so we should still be vigilant.
- Soviet Union gives weapons to Cuba
USA: Soviet Union bad
- USA: gives weapons to Taiwan
USA: its democracy
11:36 Why didn't they include Trump in this timeline? I'm no fan of Trump personally, but Trump was an official president of the US so he shouldn't be removed from the timeline imo
Ye I don’t get why? Is it out of protest? The names of the presidents that destabilized the Middle East for oil were included so I’m confused
Thanks for pointing out this bit of censorship... very disappointed with PolyMatter!
@@Average-mi6ih Same, I know it doesn't do much but I disliked the video. I don't support censorship by either side and am very disappointed in PolyMatter right now
I noticed that too, you don’t need to like him for him to still have been a former potus
It's a shame that Polymatter fell for the orange man bad narrative. Trump was infinitely better than Biden, who is causing record inflation, handed Afghanistan to the Taliban along with 80 BILLION in military equipment and now the war in Ukraine.
man i wanted to go to ukraine but i booked my flight to taiwan thank god this video saved me and showed me they arent the same
Best comment on the video
why you wanna fly to ukraine 💀
@@astrokatzs its a joke
I am Taiwanese😊
welcome to taiwan🇹🇼
god bless ukraine🇺🇦✝️🙏
5:39 Not completely true. You omit that Ukraine is very muddy in the seasons of spring and autumn leaving winter and summer the best time for invasions. That's the reason the Russians were mostly on the roads where they could get droned, because they would get bogged up everywhere else.
On that graph of u.s. administration's. Why wasn't there a president in 2018?
shhh, this is an amatuer channel, who's purpose is to talk about hot button issues, so the guy can make a living, he's not an academic that needs to have academic integrity.
@@brianwestberry9117
Because in practice there wasn't one.
Rasputitsa is the exception that he mentioned, and it's indeed a big factor, but it's neither predictable nor permanent.
Also crossing a river is remarkable challenging apparently.
Well, this explains why I was having trouble getting by speaking Ukrainian while in Taiwan. Taiwan really isn't Ukraine at all.
Same thing with speaking Russian in China.
@@hilljackzack7284 But soon, all Russia will be speaking Chinese.
@@BandytaCzasu no they won’t
@@hilljackzack7284 So you think Ukaine will take Russia before China?
@@BandytaCzasu Uhh no I think if China even tried invading Russia the war would end with China being broken up into 5 or 6 small countries and several cities being nuked. Also Russia would finally have warm sea ports.
Taiwan has a far better economy than Ukraine and is far more competitive, as well as having greater international influence despite not being internationally recognised as a state by almost everybody. Not to mention: semiconductor weapons. Taiwan also realises this and is diversifying its investment in the United States and the West to serve as plan B in case of a Chinese invasion. Though I will cast a big "if" when China also needs economic benefits from Taiwan.
Doesn’t diverting the semiconductor make it more vulnerable? because after such action it is no longer the only one who hold such strategic interest?
Ukraine conflict explained: th-cam.com/video/O326BZFTIw4/w-d-xo.html
But Taiwan is much older and wealthier/educated/urban which might be hinder a resistance in comparison to Ukraine. My parents is from there and many relatives still live there. I wish Taiwan well but there is both positives & negatives in comparison to Ukraine in resistance to war.
Economy isn't a very useful indicator. More importantly, what allies do you have. How strong is your military and most important of all how is your geography. Ukraine is flat as a pancake and very easy to walk across on foot. That's bad news or anyone living there. On the other hand Taiwan is an island. That is an advantage to anybody trying to get there
China would take Taiwan in the 2030s, by then, China and the US would monopolize semiconductor manufacturing, both are pouring money and resources, Taiwan's advantage won't last to the end of this decade.
I had my doubts that an island off the coast of China was the same as a country on the North of the Black Sea and sandwiched between Russia and the west but thank you for confirming it
☠️
Some Americans really can't tell which is which. This video is not without value.
I think it is also important to mention that Taiwan produces 90% of the world's advanced chips. Without them straight up every single industry will collapse. There are two reasons why this is important. One it will literally force the US to defend Taiwan whether they want to or not, plus the US also already has national security reasons for defending Taiwan. The second is that China straight up buys their chips from Taiwan too, it would be self-sabotage to invade Taiwan.
But wouldn't that be an additional incentive for China to take Taiwan? To have the chip industry for themselves.
@@sunahamanagai9039 that is the wettest dream out of all of china's wet dreams, but unfortunately all of taiwan's factories,universities, libraries, research centers , and data banks are all designed to self destruct when a hypothetical chinese invasion has overwhelmed all lines of defence.
@@kyleterry5190 Se, Seriously???
@@sunahamanagai9039 yep, taiwanese strategy has long concluded that they would never be able to repel a full scale chinese invasion, so their military strategy had always been to delay the invasion until the allied reinforcements arrive or until all facilities have been destroyed
@@sunahamanagai9039 China has its eyes on those chips. Everyone needs it, and China would be in control of them
Apart from mistakes other people outlined, I think that you overlooked one major element, urban warfare. Taiwan has a density of 652/km2, Ukraine 73/km2. During the first phase of the Russian invasion, we have seen Russia bypass major cities without trying to take them (apart from cities impossible to bypass). And there is a good reason for this, urban warfare (i.e. fighting in town or cities) is a real pain for modern armoured forces, especially when attacking. You are exposed to small groups of fighters, booby traps and snipers. So usually, attacking in urban environment you are left with two possibilities, clear building after building which takes times and men or obliterate the city. While the russian army bypassed every urban environment they could, they went for the destruction of other urban environment. But as I said, Ukraine is far less densely populated than Taiwan. Thus, when you factor in urban warfare, amphibious warfare and mountain warfare, you are left with a clusterfuck that takes time, men and logistic to take. While the alternative means the total destruction of Taiwan.
This is exactly why the PRC has considered using the PAP during the hypothetical invasion, the People's Armed Police is much more prepared for urban combat compared to the PLA or Russian military. It would be foolish to think that China isn't learning from Russia's mistakes.
@@thelieutenant7732 I totally agree that every army is currently learning from what is happening. I just wanted to outline the overlook urban warfare component of invasion of Taiwan
They could just carpet smoke bomb and bring them in as paratroopers lmao, also Taiwan morale is different then Ukraines
@@magnem1043 Go read up on Iwo Jima and Okinawa in WWII. The US bombarded both with battleships and aircraft for weeks before the invasion and reduced them to barren wastelands. But they barely killed any of the defenders because they were hiding in tunnels dug into the mountains. Taiwan has these tunnels too (many actually dug by Japan in WWII), and has far more of them defending a far larger area. China can’t just bomb out the defenders. It would be a bloody cave-by-cave struggle that would last for months if not years. And that’s assuming the US didn’t get involved.
@@bluemarlin8138 go read up on japanese invasion of taiwan 1895. an amphibious operation by japan that took less than 5 months with japanese losses fraction of taiwanese. and china is a lot closer to taiwan than mainland japan was.
Taiwan: Is an island
Ukraine: Isn't an island
Therefore Taiwan is NOT Ukraine
Who would've thought
Taiwan is part of China, Ukraine is not part of China, therefore Taiwan is not Ukraine
@@pettypractice7872 Tiananmen Square
First thing I looked for in this video.
@@OkachaWasTaken Best thing that happened to China.
Unlike Ukraine, the island of Taiwan is more difficult to invade but also near impossible to get any support from outside.
It seems that way, difficult to invade and easy to defend, but in early last century, the Europeans invaded and occupied Taiwan. They renamed Taiwan to Formosa (beautiful in Spanish), the Chinese sailed across the strait and kicked the Europeans out to the ocean and the Chinese renamed Formosa back to Taiwan.
@@monk786 because no in that time was able to stop them, but if china want to invade Taiwan then china will have to fight the usa and it's allies in Asia
@@monk786 It was easy for Taiwan to be invaded 300 years ago because only the indigenous people were protecting Taiwan. After World War II, Chiang Kai-shek led 600,000 troops to defend Taiwan, making it difficult for Taiwan to be invaded. The Chinese People's Liberation Army has failed to attack Taiwan twice. Because of the shadow of failure, the Chinese People's Liberation Army has not dared to attack Taiwan again for decades.
@@劉兆崴-h7c 现在直接远程导弹把蛙军事力量摧毁殆尽再去比较好，解放军的生命很宝贵
Interesting point about the US WWII invasion plan, and the conclusion that the island is such an extremely difficult target. That was based on a depth of practical experience of amphibious landings that no modern military can match.
Afghanistan has never been successfully taken. Despite it being
|
V
@@SocietyKilledTheUnicorn Afghanistan is landlocked
Amphibious landing craft is the easy part. The hard part is driving from surf to shore.
See Andrew Hills book Wading Ashore for the development leading up to D-Day…
@@captiannemo1587 Amphibious landings when not facing modern Anti Ship misslies may be easy.
Words to key on when looking for signs of bad information:
Interesting...the opposite of boring and says just as much about the vanilla person behind it.
Extremely...Trying too hard to make a point out of a detail.
We finish with a Superiority Statement that relies on 80 year old info and attempts to apply it to current situations.
Was it an advantage that educated men used Intelligence info on weather and geography to keep their man safer?
The alternative was a Supreme Leader being infallible. That's what our adversaries had to overcome. Strict adherence to the Lunatic at the Top.
This video plays like the Farmers Almanac reads.
I think you should reconsider the military objectives of both China and Russia.
Everyone keeps assuming that they want to occupy Tiawan and Ukraine.
I think that they would be nearly as happy with them GONE.
For some one who wants to use Math for War, I suggest you recalculate using Subtraction from Earth instead of Addition to a Nation.
Military always have problems setting up their Word Problems.
24:8 is the same thing as 3:1 when you multiplied the defender's advantage it should have gone to something like 24:1 instead of what you did.
Yeah that was definitely a miscommunication between writer and editor there lol, that was dumb. It's probably not all him. Otherwise it would've been right probably
Who cares they were nonsensical numbers to most of us
So his video editor doesn't know how to do 4th grade math; multiplying fractions.
He probably meant 24:1 and made a mistake
@@youtubehatestruthtellers8065 fair enough, but some of us have experience in the field, and those numbers do mean something
"Conscript armies are more apathetic and less effective" except when it's their home on the line. I think we have seen in Ukraine just how hard it is to break someone's morale when A: you're trampling their stuff and B: they hated your even before that
Home on the line means not only means motivation, but knowledge of terrain. Some Russian forces allegedly used outdated paper maps since commercial GPS does not have level of detail needed for military use.
unfortunately, only the ruling elite and those vested interest would tell you how the people love them and hate their enemy. come to think of it, who you would hate more, some 1 on the other side of the sea, and bunch of cronies suxking your blood.
Ukraine is virtually in a civil war for years, while taiwan, if you follow their news, are debating if soldiers should trained under hot sun, or should rest when its too hot.
A well trained soldier will have no problem dealing with a mad civilian in 10 out of 10 cases. The only reason Ukraine has appeared so valiantly tough is because Russia has been sending in essentially untrained teenagers up until a couple weeks ago. Now that special forces are on the ground, you see nothing of mad civilians taking on soldiers.
@@yzy8638 I would hate the one saying my nation has no right to exist, destroys my home, kills my children and rapes my wife. Yes there are a few in Ukraine who would rather live under Putin. The majority don't.
@@idkbruhimhigh Indeed. The Russians will have shot all the civilians.
When people say Taiwan is similar to Ukraine they speak in the sense that US and the rest of the world will not be involved militarily not referring to the difficulty to invade. It's been made pretty clear before that invasion is not going to be walk in the park and most likely very brutal.
Well the US will actually have reason to defend Taiwan, it has zero reason to defend Ukraine.
@@markcoleman7246 I think being the right thing to do is a good reason, also Ukraine exports 12% of world's food supply and 6th largest steel exporter. I think it also ties into politics, I think realistically speaking US hold so much military power even China takes Taiwan, it would not dare to pick a fight with the US, so I don't think it would be preferred by the US voters to defend Taiwan against China or Russia, that could potentially strike US soil, true Taiwan supplies a large percentage of advanced chips are made in Taiwan, but I think US most likely already have the technology and skills to supply, just not the plants, it will just take time to catch up again and probably raise prices on many goods in the process, and TSMC has already begun construction of factories in the US I think partially reimbursed by the US government to prepare for this type of situation.
But don't get me wrong It would be nice if US can back us up, but just saying we are not and should not be counting on it.
It depends on who you are talking about. Many Chinese nationalists saying this don't think it'll be a big deal invading Taiwan. The latest I've heard from a retired PLA general was they can take over Taiwan in 3 days.
Even about what you said is not the same. Ukraine has very little value to US interest, while Taiwan does due to their high tech industry does.
The US is also more focused on China while Russia has become a sideshow
@Nathan 556 but would the American people risk a nuclear escalation with an unpredictable dictatorship? As of now US can intercept 225 icbms (according to estimation by infograpgics channel) and China according to the US now has over 450 so in the event nuclear escalation happens earth might be looking at a total nuclear fallout. Worse than having no chips, and I feel like even if China ends up unable to take the island they would destroy the factories, as we have seen in Ukraine, them dictators have no problem striking civilian buildings, so if a war breaks out, we are petty much guaranteed to have no high end chips from Taiwan. But if Taiwan can be defended at least trade routes through Taiwan straits won't be sanctioned.
I am not from the US so I can't speak for them but if you are, would you be in support of US getting involved with actual US troops?
It's made clear by what? By Biden said 4 times that US will engaging the war when China launched ii against Taiwan?
Just on a side note: 24:8 is the same as 3:1.
Multiply the number of attackers not defenders.
Thank you! I noticed this too haha
Yeah I wasn’t sure what he was going for there and I just assumed I was missing the point.
6:33 Going from a 3:1 attacker to defender ratio to a 24:8 ratio isn't actually changing anything, that isn't how force multipliers work in this context. You wanted to leave the defender number unchanged.
made me laugh
Haha I saw this, stopped the video and went straight to the comments
Wait I’m confused, how does this work?
@@Tanky98 So, ratios, like fractions, are always equal to their lowest common forms.
When an attacker receives a "Force Multiplier" from something like "advanced armor" that reduces enemy effectiveness, or "longer range weapon systems" that allows them to kill the defender from out of range, the Defender Required Troops (the 1 in 3:1) is increased, leading to a different fractional ratio, like 3:2, or something more fancy like 3:1.5 (which becomes 6:3, which becomes 2:1), or 3:1.4 (which becomes 15:7, because ratios and fractions don't like decimals jelly in their peanut butter) and so on.
When the defender receives the advantage, as is discussed in the video, the Attacker Required Troops number (the 3) increases.
If both sides receive advantages that literally and directly offset each other, nothing has actually changed about the situation. Going from 3:1 -> 24:8 is saying "The defenders are eight times as effective, and the attackers are eight times as effective, meaning they have the same odds as winning as before the changes." It reduces right back down to 3:1.
These ratios tell you roughly how many times bigger one army needs to be compared to the other to have a roughly equal chance of winning. US Infantry military doctrine is literally to avoid combat whenever possible unless you outnumber the enemy 3 men to 1 man. Could be 30 men in a platoon vs 10 men in a field, could be literally 3 to 1, could be 30,000 vs 10,000, doesn't matter. As you add trenches and bunkers and indirect fire supports to the defending side, those 10 men become more able to hold back increasingly more troops. Might actually need a company to take the spot, which is 120 vs 10, or 12:1.
Helpful?
@@demonzabrak that makes sense
This invasion, if it happens, could possibly do more damage to the global economy than the Russia-Ukraine war, mainly because TSMC have partnerships US based tech and consumer electronics companies like Apple & Intel (about 25% of TSMC's revenue comes from Apple which is about US$17b). Due to Taiwan's importance in the semiconductor industry and partnerships with companies in the West, if the invasion happens, you can almost guarantee the US will get involved.
But outside of the semiconductor and tech talk, the geography of Taiwan makes this geopolitical tension a double-edged sword as it means that China could struggle with invading Taiwan since they are an island, and have irregular coastlines. However, they can easily declare a naval blockade as they do not border any countries in SE Asia. If China do go ahead with this invasion, I'd imagine it would be done with a somewhat similar approach to how Russia invaded Ukraine.
I disagree.
Then the US would blockade China......
i genuinely believe it would definitely start the third world war, considering how important TSMC is to every superpower in the world
You can only declare a naval blockade if you are willing to sink any ship coming to the destination. Taiwan is not like current Russia and Ukraine, where the Black Sea and Azov sea only have 1 route to go through, that Turkey and Russia, respectively, can easily block it. For Taiwan they sit right in Pacific Ocean, there is no clear gate that China can block incoming ships from coming, but rather only Taiwanese can block the beaches. So China have to resort to sinking ships as warning, if they are willing to make any kind of blockade. Yeah, sinking US, Japan or Australia ships, good luck doing that without declaring war on them.
@@anhkhoanguyen8562 they can sink all our ships easily with the new weapons. It is obviously a huge risk but they have the power to enforce a blockade with OTH hypersonic missiles
2 minute version: Geography forbids that two countries on opposite sides of the globe from being the same place
👍👍👍👍30s is enough
“In reality, the war was never meant to be won, but to be continuous. The war isn’t waged by one nation against another, but by the ruling classes against their own population.”
Got that from my reading of 1984.
Personally I find the book “Brave New World” to be more inline with the modern era since it goes on about consumption of entertainment and dumbing down the population as a way of control but they both talk about brainwashing and absolute power as they aren’t too different both have the citizen seeing the whole as a body and them as it’s cells in a sense.
@@RoflcopterLamo
Read that one too, and I agree.
For China taking Taiwan? Eh, not really.
Brave New World by Aldous Huxley is great too! If you like 1984. It was written by George Orwell’s High school French teacher.
10/10 book would recommend.
Just found your site PM. Straight question: if you cancel Trump at 11:30 because you dislike his politics, are you really that different from the CCP which has always done the same to nationalist Taiwan? If you have any sense you'll correct your video very quickly.
LOL, it wasn't a mistake. It was a joke. Why is it always on the left to take the high road and avoid being petty and childish, when pettiness and childnishness are the entire GOP playbook? The left should kee doing childish things like this. If "liberal tears" is a political platform, then trolling republicans should be as well.
agree
This video is a B.S. propaganda. China won't do anything they said in this video.
I agree he should have included Trump, but an individual freely expressing their biased view this way is completely different from a country forcing their biased view on the population.
Unfortunately it's very likely TH-cam demonetises mention of the name. That is the real evil CCP censorship bootlickers you should be worried about.
To be fair, Russia and Ukraine parted ways. China (PRC) and Taiwan (RoC) have not parted ways, the division is a result of a civil war and they both claim each other's territory and consider themselves the sole legitimate government of China.
exactly, but those TH-camr for propaganda doesn't care about facts. In their constitution, both Mainland China (PRC) and Taiwan China (ROC) write "the country(China) must achieve reunification". Also, most countries in the world do recognise Taiwan as a part of China.
Guess China would be better with the Taiwan Gov.
But we rly want a China that strong?
Modern armed 2 the teeth and western unfriendly?
Naaaaa thats why we keep the Red guys in Power cause they stupid
Ukraine part ways, it seen russia never truly did and we are see the problem with that.
@@raro344 Ukraine broke with Russia by way of a Russo-phobic coup that led to civil war. Something Russia secretly warned might happen back in 2008 (wikileaks ukraine).
Sorry but this video doesn't capture the PRIMARY points very well at all. Allow me to point them out:
1) For the past decades, China was poor and its military was simply not strong enough. A single US carrier group could take on the entire Chinese air force. Its only in recent years their military has become much stronger along with their economy. That is one of the reasons why they haven't attacked.
2) They also haven't attacked because its written in their law that they MUST use force ONLY if there is zero possibility of a peaceful resolution.
3) Finally, and most importantly, this has nothing to do with CCP or not. No matter which party controls China, Taiwan has always been a part of China as a whole. In Taiwan's law, they also consider Taiwan as part of the whole China. If the military power of Taiwan and mainland China switched places, Taiwan would also seek to reunify with the rest of China. End of the day, its a civil war that never ended, plain and simple. Those are the core points and the rest of the points mentioned in the video simply isn't that relevant in the grand scheme of things.
"Ukraine is not Taiwan, and Taiwan is not Ukraine"
Learn something new everyday
What point were you trying to make at 6:20 about defender's advantage? It starts at 1 defender per 3 atackers ratio and then climbs to 8-24, which is the same thing.
Right lol
but but, what about 7-21
It to show how fast the scale would be as 1-3 would quickly become 1000-3000 which is a enormous difference between the two
@@uncoolbob9653 Yeah but 1:3=1000:3000
The point being made is that the ratio of defender to attacker is 1:3, and when it is scaled to the level of entire active military of Taiwan (scaling up means multiplying), it becomes 200000 Taiwanese soldiers to 600000 Chinese soldiers. China will have to ferry 600000 Troops just in order to encroach and get a hold of the coast of Taiwan. That's like 30% of the entire military in one amphibian invasion
The elephant in the room is either Taiwan or "the Republic of China" is recognised as a sovereign state by countries leaning on her, not like Ukraine. Don't underestimate this difference. It means many International laws do not apply to Taiwan by default. And it also means Taiwan will have to declare itself as a sovereign state if China attacks. It will put the whole world in an either-Taiwan-or-China situation, which is completely different from the Ukriane scenario. It will be much more dangerous.
A very Bing Chilling moment.
Technically and legally, the two sides are still in a ongoing civil war
@@ThisNoName No we are not
@@小刀瑞士 只是休战，不是停战
China haters don't care about facts as long as things are anti-china.
11:29 lmaoooo, bruh, did you seriously left Trump as a blank box :D
I thought these educational channels were better than this petty political BS
That box was probably left blank since an invasion while Trump was in office wasn’t a choice China would be willing to make😂
@@TheCrimsonSpork 😂
This channel lost all credibility for being this petty
In 11:30 why you didnt write the name of the president?
Ah, tractors, the greatest impediment to land invasions
Tractors > Russian tanks
John Deere. The TOP USA weapons company.
@@monsterboomer8051 Gotta pull those abandon Russian tanks to rearm the Ukrainian army😃
Russian soldier: "I fear no man but that....(points to Ukrainian tractor)....that scares me."
You laugh now but get your million dollars tank towed away by Bubba and you'll quickly change your mind
Uh, I'm pretty sure a ratio of 24:8 still simplifies to 3:1.
I get what you meant, it could be 4.2 attackers to 1 defender, but the fractions are funny.
I'm glad someone else said this because I was confused haha. Me I my head "it's the same no?"
I realized this approximately 5 minutes after this video went life. Ugh.
@@PolyMatter Why is Trump omitted from the list of presidents? Why did you joke about Russia's GDP being "formerly" 9.5x that of Ukraine? Unless you're under the assumption that Western sanctions will affect Russia's GDP more proportionally than Ukraine's current destruction, then I really can't see how you made that claim.
You also falsely claimed that Ukrainian civilian resistance causes slowdown for Russia. This is false. It's Western aid that causes slowdown for Russia.
You also falsely claimed that tractors were an obstacle to Russia. Again, it's a joke based on a false premise. You can make that joke on your circle jerk platform, but don't make it in a video where you're (seemingly) trying to gain trust and educate others.
You then continue by claiming Russia's position on the world stage is similar to that of North Korea. I didn't know being part of the G20, part of OPEC+, and a major oil exporter (doesn't matter where they're exporting to) is a North Korean-esque world power.
I have a feeling you unironically use Twitter, as these jokes based on false premises seem to originate and stay on that toxic platform (where 65% of all information is considered false).
Why are these weird inaccuracies showing up in your video? This was the first PolyMatter video I've seen where there is explicit bias, and flat out omissions of information (as cryptic as they are).
@@PeterNjeim it's quite sad to see what he's doing now. The world is literally starving and the entire world economy is imploding because Russia is the biggest energy and food exporter and the western world decided to say "okay we're gonna starve ourselves".
@@PeterNjeim I mean really, he says it was larger than Ukraines but he doesn't say why it changed, it could be because we don't know what will happen.
I had not heard the concept of China using Taiwan as a convenient "nationalist enthusiasm button" before. Now that you pointed it out, it seems so very obvious. I have lived and worked in both Taiwan and Shanghai so I would like to compliment you on how well you have researched, understood and characterized each side. Well done!
When a part of your territory became a puppet of someone who wants you dead, maybe a little nationalism isn’t so bad
However it is the other way around. Very little about Taiwan is mentioned in mainland China media. Let alone in textbooks. Nothing negative at all. While Anti-China became the mainstream propaganda of ruling DPP to attract “nationalism” and votes in Taiwan. And to please the puppet master
Yeah but Xi may want to completely eliminate the button if he wants to cement his legacy as better than Mao.
@@WellBattle6 yeah a big if
- "I had not heard the concept of China using Taiwan as a convenient "nationalist enthusiasm button" before."
Are you sure you haven't heard before that governments are using external threats - real or made-up ones - to raise nationalism? The only new thing here is the word "button" (which is just a colourful way to refer to repetition). The maker of this video seems to like to make it sound like he is personally bringing something new to the subject when he is just presenting ideas already well established by others.
oh boy, are you insane?
you're risking to summon both russian and chinese bots here lol
@11:30 why is 2018 empty on the chart of US presidents/administrations?
The administration that was conveniently left off this chart was one of the most staunch critics on many of China's policies in the last several decades.
I am assuming this may be due to certain bias's relating to US politics, and I really hate to assume.
Would be nice when people are trying to lay out certain facts, they do so with integrity, not allowing personal bias to interfere.
The Trump admin was the one that finally ended the kowtow to china
To the person that wrote the factually correct comment that he was the first to not kowtow to CCPhina . The social media overlords do not like the truth, therefore they have hidden your comment from other users to view.
I noticed it, too. The omission was, of course, politically motivated. When I see things like this, I just question the reliability of any information provided by the channel.
@@prabuddhad Absolutely the same for me. To blatantly omit certain information _for any reason,_ will lead me to question one's integrity and credibility with all that they do.
On Ukraine: "The biggest natural impediments are trees, grass, and tractors." 😂
Which does not sound like much but take a look at it on google streets/ satellite images and compare with live map etc. and you realize that this ”steppe” is filled with rows of trees which can conceal units and make a clear view of the terrain hard for ground forces without good reconnaissance. It’s a lot less steppe than people may assume and flat can include small hills that make advancing difficult. There are also many small villages which, for obvious reasons, are ideal to set up ambushes etc.
tractors are indeed the apex predators in ukrainian steppes
It's all US propaganda, false information, hyping up the Taiwan issue without talking about historical reasons. War is now a war of information, electronics, drones. And there is no need for China to attack Taiwan militarily. Just beat the US and Taiwan will naturally return to China.
@@taipeistp5660 actual bot
@@peequod1647 more like a fifty center
Here's another perspective : The reason why China wants Taiwan is exactly the reason that it establishes the legitimacy of the CCP, instead of using Taiwan to bolster its waning popular support. Historically if you look in the past, China had always depended on a "mandate of heaven" to claim legitimacy of ruling the Chinese mainland, that is if someone can reunite all Chinese lands, they can claim themselves to be the emperor and ruler. There is also a name for time between the mid 1800s to the early 1900s in Chinese when China fought the opium wars : "百年耻辱" (A hundred years of disgrace). China had been fractured and split up between western colonial powers, Japanese imperialism, warlordism, and banditry during the 19th century, and even during the civil war both the nationalist and the communist knew that they would never repeat something like this ever again. Which can also explain why China intervened in the Korean War when the US closed in on its borders not knowing whether they would stop there. It a social and historical problem, the only reason Taiwan had not declared independence is not because of the CCP threatening it, but rather they both have agreed to play the legitimacy game, which independence would destroy this game altogether.
Strategically Taiwan is part of the 1st Island chain, blockading China from ever reaching the Pacific ocean, and even if they do, they would be closely monitored by US and US allied navies. 70% of China's economically productive areas are located on the Eastern coastline, where the US has hundred of air force bases, naval bases, and open to attack from the US or even Taiwan. This poses a strategic problem to China, just as Ukraine to Russia. That being said, Taiwan is not a made up issue by the CCP to claim the island, and in strategic terms, even if it would cost millions of men taking the island, if it would improve Chinese strategic standing in the Pacific, an invasion would be likely.
China had a much bigger piece of land in what is now eastern Russia - but they focused on invading Taiwan and not eastern Russia because it’s manufactured for nationalism support. Also, China had Mongolia but they aren’t threatening to invade Mongolia.
There is an old Ilocan proverb. When your ass itches, they are fighting in China. The Chinese are always fighting each other, even before the Spanish. 😃😃😃😃😃
That's assuming China survives intact once the Taiwanese insurrection gets quelled, which could take years if not generations. The Mainland depends on imports for food and fuel, and sanctions or not civilian ships will be scared off and China's global customers are going to more aggressively seek permanent alternatives. More likely unrest at home over food prices and quality (think Shanghai except everywhere and more defiant) will flare up and only grow as rations get taken from periphery security forces to keep more core functions fed -- the PLA is not nearly big enough to do battle with the rest of China.
In the end though, the PRC prefers peaceful reunification. War would take a heavy toll on both the PRC and the island of Taiwan, drastically lowering the cost-reward ratio. China isn't lying when it says it prefers peaceful reunification.
@@awwee34 war would wreck the Chinese economy and the West as well .
It would start the Third World War.
This is an excellent presentation which provides reasonable ideas to explain the situation in a non sensationalist way.
The reason there's more searches about an invasion in the US now than in the past can be easily explained by the simple fact that the internet makes people outside the region more aware of international events than in years and decades past. We now hear about things around the world more, and have the ability to look it up far easier and more frequently.
No war is needed to conquer Taiwan. When 150 warships around the island, it remains isolated and without resources. It will be the inhabitants of Taiwan who will raise the white flag, without having to fire a cannon shot. Passive siege.
3 months? 6 months? 2 years? patience, the weapon to win is patience.
@@Chan-Lin-Tao yup, and the USA will close all 3,500 Wal Marts as a result of such actions, no Chinese goods will enter or be sold in the country, and China will suffer the greatest economic collapse in its history. Joking of course, but we see in Russia today, China's future, a pariah state, which eventually no Westen nation will trade with.
@@ronschlorff7089 the United States is close to default. 30% of the government bonds are owned by the Bank of China. Just one click and down ...
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this is the real reason they want to destroy China, they can always use the 11,000 nuclear warheads. They have already shown the world how the evil Empire thinks. Hiroshima and Nagasaki are still a witness.
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In the future you will have some surprises, when you realize that walmart is just a chain of shops and nothing more.
We have lived 150,000 years without walmart. :D
@@Chan-Lin-Tao Japan's fate was only a warning to the world, "DO NOT fuck with us"! China knows that well; they are not suicidal! You have a much longer history; "Peking man" is at least a million years old. He had no markets! LOL ;D
@@ronschlorff7089 It is interesting to confirm that the planet is doomed to extinction due to a criminal population.
"Why Taiwan is NOT Ukraine" - Me: Well, that's pretty obvious, just like Japan isn't France....
6:38 thats not how ratios work... 24 : 8 is literally the same as 3 : 1. if you want to express how the number of troops china would need to invade multiplies, you only need to multiply their side of the ratio: 24:1.
Doesn't matter. When dealing with Taiwan I got the feeling the true ratio would be 1:0. Taiwan has no reliable force of any kind, and more specifically no reliable soldiers, which is an even bigger issue than their decade old equipments.
It is, in fact, how ratios work. He just didn't simplify it. To say that 24:8 isn't a valid ratio tells me that you don't actually understand ratios.
@@B3Band he didn`t say 24/8 is not "valid". That tells me you're bad at reading comprehesion
PolyMatter even acknowledged the mistake in an earlier thread.
@@B3Band fun project for you… lets simplify 24:8. and when you have done that tell me how much that differs from 3:1. i never said 24 : 8 is not a ratio. i said multiplying both sides of the ratio is not how you express the ratio getting heavier in favor of one side. in this example 24 : 8 is the exact same as 3 : 1. but i regret pointing this mistake out since according to @A\zzor polymatter already communicated this mistake
even if there was any basis to you claims, literally every military analyst and even the chinese military themselves disagree with you , but, go off i guess
China flying aircrafts on Taiwan
Taiwanese: That's normal, nothing to worry about
American: O my my God, they attacked Taiwan
Looking at the timeline of American presidents at 11:31, does anyone else find it odd that the name Donald Trump was conspicuously left out? What gives, polymatter?
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Yes, why was President Trump's name left out?
@@deepstar3796 we all know why Trump was omitted, Trump is evil. I have seen enough of this video to know their political bias to Trump.
Cowardice? Political ideology?
LOL
5:24 Putting just the US for the normandy landing is a proper "fuck you" to the rest of allies that landed their. especially since youre willing to put "U.S. & U.K." for the failed Anzio landing
While the US took the brunt of the fighting with 2/3 of the losses from the US, it was a team effort that mostly included US, UK and Canada
What I thought! UK and Canada had 80k troops in total and USA had 70k and so to say it was just the USA is unfair.
what do you expect? he's an proud American
It's all US propaganda, false information, hyping up the Taiwan issue without talking about historical reasons. War is now a war of information, electronics, drones. And there is no need for China to attack Taiwan militarily. Just beat the US and Taiwan will naturally return to China.
Because America did most of the work and bankrolled the allies
5:06
Normandy a 'US invasion'? UK and Canada provided more troops, ships and equipment though...
11:32 just because you didn't like Trump, doesn't mean he wasn't president. Sorry.
This guy has lost a lot of credibility
11:30 Why is the 2018 block blank? lol
What people often neglect is that the Allies managed to land 160,000 troops on D-Day on a coastline which is much more suitable than Taiwan's. Taiwan won't be fighting a 2 million man army, they'll be fighting as many as China are able to successfully land. This is a fundamental math problem that is not easily solved by technology or military spending.
War region Nanjing has about 200,000 troops, I assume at least half are support/construction.
So the landing forces are maybe 100,000 men.
@@roadbone1941 They would have to bring 10 times that in order to account for losses, resupply and logistics. It's a very difficult task.
I think it's a huge gamble for China. If the U.S. decides to step in, they might not have a chance to land anything. The U.S. has like 6 less nuclear submarines than it considers adequate to completely stop a maritime invasion. That's only 69 subs compared to 75 which it considers enough. If the U.S. doesn't step in, then they have to worry about landing enough troops. Also, China doesn't have enough of the purpose built military landing craft that the U.S. had on D-Day. If they did try to take Taiwan, I don't think it will be like D-Day.
Yes, because China will definitely use D-day strategy to invade Taiwan...
Also, by that logic, imperial Japan would also be repelled in invading Taiwan.
China will probably just bomb taiwan back to the stone ages and force people to leave the cities. The whole video assumes China wants to take Taiwan and hold it. It really does not. China just need to depopulate the island.
The Ukrainian conflict has made me look at these 'intimidating' military parades very differently, considering the hardware is so easily defeated by modern anti-armour weapons.
Looking back, all of those Russia vs America videos about gow much more badass and cool Russia is hits very different.
@@richyhu2042 There's been lots of milk ageing on TH-cam in the past few weeks.
If Chinese claims about their hypersonic weapons are true, do not underestimate their capabilities. You know, T-72 tanks are not the same as a Dongfeng 17 glide vehicle traveling at 7,000 mph.
I never saw those military parade anything special, if you are powerful why do you need to show off your military's with parades makes no sense. US don't even waste time doing that expect to appreciate the men and women in service which is Veteran's day, we don't show weapons cause its the men and women that makes a difference.
@@HTV-2_Hypersonic_Glide_Vehicle Well it never seen combat to know what works and what doesn't therefore compare to the notable MBTs Abrams, Challenger, Leopard, Lereyic, and Merkava so I'm treating it them same as a T72. US overestimated Russia cause they thought they was still Soviet Union powerful.
This might explain why I had a hard time finding train tickets to Poland while I was in Taiwan
15:10 lol what? Russia was put on level of North Korea because of the sanctions and pays an enormous price? Not a propaganda at all. For a half of year Russian economy shrinked by 0.5% while the US and especially Europe experiencing huge decrease of industrial output and inflation. The 2008 crisis was much more devastating for Russia when economy lost about 8%.
@@Evrastrim I mean, Russians can't afford basic things. And they lost a lot of products from import. So you are delusional
😂😂😂
11:29 love it that He Who Shall Not Be Names is indeed NOT NAMED. yeah, voldemort.
I just wanted to point out two minor corrections in your video. The first that you kind of also addressed was basically that because the Taiwanese people aren't worried, the West shouldn't get worried either. we saw a similar thing happen in Ukraine because Russia was threatening an invasion several times in the past and it never happened. Even as troops were amassing the Ukrainian people denied that they thought Russia would actually invade.
The second point is that China is simply beating a drum of war constantly with no real threat to Taiwan. on the contrary, China has been making slow steady progress towards an army that is capable of doing an amphibious landing. this comes in the form of a lot of spending, completely revamping their main small arms, the development of specialized marine divisions as part of the army that as far as I know no other military has an equivalent for, etc. these are all long-term investments that are very well measured and don't fall into the model of beating the drum of war, this is more of a stealth buildup behind a facade of simply beating a drum of war.
2nd one is not true, chinese military isn't good, they have poor quality equipments, their fighter jet is knock of version of American jets, and taiwan has purchased billions of dollars worth of military equipment from USA and other nations too, besides taiwan's geography is just too hard to attack, they can easily defend the only costs where the attack comes from
This is how we should understand these gestures, we need a global effort to burn down these tyrants and their entire cabinets
Yeah, one frustratingly lax thing I've encountered with some people is that when I try to highlight the sharp turn in hostility and nationalism that coincides with the term of jinping, a lot of people are fast to handwave it away with platitudes like "china has always been crazy, they never changed"
Thank Western media for fear mongering ppl in the West about this situation
Very good points, both. China has invested a lot into amphibious technologies, and does yearly amphibious exercises, so it's not all just empty threats.
China would likely first annex some of Taiwan's smaller islands that lie closer to the Chinese mainland. We likely would not see a full-on amphibious assault of the main island until after they secure all the outlying islands.
You really can’t mount an invasion from those tiny islands. They would be sitting ducks for drones
They would also have to take the Pescadore islands that are closer to Taiwan as well
If China breaks the status quo and invade smaller islands Kinmen and Matsu, Taiwan can then break the status quo , updates its constitution to change its official name to Taiwan and establish official relations with other democratic countries.
They would never, this is the most foolish analysis. Firstly, Kinmen and the Matsu islands are already the most "Pro-China" subdivisions of Taiwan, and always vote blue, and can be considered "deep blue". China would never throw forces at them.
Secondly, if China had to launch an invasion, it would mean the status quo has been broken, either by Taiwan's declaration of formal independence, or their own doing. Wasting time on those islands whose weaponry has little shelter (not very mountainous islands) and can be easily avoided and suppressed by air would only give Taiwan time to mobilize an effective response making any main-island Taiwan invasion magnitudes more difficult. I suggest you read up more on the nuances of the situation.
@@sw36jl they need too because it's within spitting distance of the Chinese mainland and they've been embarrassed there twice now. China would have to do something about them with their current propaganda
As you point out, China has been saber-rattling for seven decades. But that means Taiwan had seven decades to come up with a plan to defend themselves. And we can see what a difference eight years of preparation have made for Ukraine
have not done to well. Taiwan should have nuclear war heads by now
China’s military has no combat experience in comparison to Russia who is always at war somewhere, I say this to say the first sign of china engaging in a military pursuit may not go well for it
70year? Taiwan used to infiltrate and bomb the mainland with the support of the United States.
@@dongren8620 we’re just saying things now
🥹
Panic is a double edged sword for China, in the short term it makes them seem tougher and get more influence, but in the long term it makes other countries over prepare for the perceived Chinese giant, despite it being mostly hot air
Most people also forget that Ukraine is mostly landlocked (except for her Southern portion in the Black Sea) but Taiwan is surrounded by a big ocean - the Pacific Ocean. The reason why Ukraine is able to keep fighting and NATO & the US don't have to fight Russia directly is because of the land routes - they can easily send supplies and military equipment directly into Ukraine to support their fight with Russia.
But, when it comes to Taiwan, things get pretty tough. Supplying Taiwan in a middle of a hypothetical war with China would be nearly impossible. China has the largest navy in the world (in terms of the number of ships) and has a formidable air force - one that is enough to subdue entire airforces in East Asia. With only an air and sea route into Taiwan, the US and the Allies (namely Japan and most possibly Australia) would have to fight their way to get to Taiwan. They can't sit back and supply Taiwan with lots of military and humanitarian aid without the Chinese attacking or blocking the passage of neutral ships and aircraft attempting to enter Taiwan during a hypothetical war scenario.
I think this is one area that is often overlooked - the geographical differences of both countries: Taiwan and Ukraine. So I will leave my comment here! :D
Good analysis
Luckily the US navy is the strongest in the world. While its air force is also the steongest in the world not to mention that the second strongest airforce in the world is the US navy's.
Also Japan also has a significant navy while japanese, korean and filipino naval bases can be used as springboards by the US warmachine.
@@jamescawl6904 The US military is the strongest in the world, yes, but they are quite spread thin all around the globe. The US does have significant forces in Japan and Korea but those aren't sufficient to counter China. China, however, is able to concentrate most of its military in Asia, which makes it much more difficult for the US to defend Taiwan if China decides to invade. As for Japan, yes they have a pretty formidable navy which will add on to the headaches for the Chinese.
So military wise, it will be a very big gamble for the Chinese to invade. But the US cannot afford to underestimate China. Whenever China sees the opportunity, they'll seize it quickly and sometimes, maybe too quickly.
@@captainbroady True. But if china ever tries to invade taiwan their economy built on export manufacturing will come crumbling down while all imports will be blocked.
china is at a food deficit while not having the natural resources to sustain their manufacturing capacity.
The result will be that china most likely will overwhelm the taiwanese with naval invasions and airborne assaults within a short amount of time but then china will not only starve they will also be unable to sustain their warmachine after the embargoes.
Video said that there could be atleast a month to predict the invasion, so in my uneducated guess, they could be supplied within that period for as much as needed.
Would that be enough, idk......
8:39 To be fair, the Allies expected Germany to attack through Belgium, were prepping for it, and still got shit on. That said, while all these statistics may provide indications of the possibilities, it’s all unfortunately on paper. Many initial analyses expected Ukraine to fall relatively quickly but it’s clearly not the case.
If any country truly has any will to resist, any invasion’s success will likely require the genocide of the population or an extended period of undisturbed occupation, both of which are impractical. That said, the fate of Taiwan rests on the Taiwanese themselves; no one can help one who can’t help themselves. If they are putting up any meaningful resistance, they have a likelihood of remaining free.
Belgium waffled and screwed up the French plan.
That's apples and oranges though. They expected Germany to concentrate in Belgium, but didn't expect Germany to send the bulk of its armoured and motorised forces through southern Belgium and Northern France to cut them off, they expected Germany to essentially copy its 1914 plan. They were totally unprepared for the plan Germany used. That said being prepared on paper isn't the same as being able to implement that plan, I agree with you.
@@DmitriPolkovnik while you’re not necessarily wrong, one must recognize that hindsight is 20/20. If the enemy does everything you expected, what’s the point of fighting? The results are known before anything even happens. Why do you think there is so much emphasis on intelligence and deception? As another comparison, we can look at physics taught in classrooms vs physics in practical applications: the former is all assuming ideal conditions with anything not ideal generally being explicitly given while the latter must consider everything that could happen. The reason classroom physics is structured this way is so that elementary learners can grasp difficult concepts with known answers.
The difference between those that win and those that don’t between fairly matched opponents is the ability to adapt. The Mechelen Incident already gave the Allies the opportunity to recognize what the Germans actually did. That said, they were not totally unprepared; they simply chose not to see everything.
They went through cheslovakia
A Strategic plan through Eastern Europe above the Balkans I suppose
I think a big factor to consider why China wouldn't invade Taiwan, is how invested China is in the global economy. They'd lose more influence and power through war with Taiwan than they are gaining by being a economical superpower.
China being heavily export driven and deeply connected with the global economy both means sanctions would be devastating against China and that sanctions would have a hugely negative impact on every country in the world, much more so that Russia that has an economy smaller than Italy.
that's only if the world is willing to sanction China. I think the world is less willing to do that to China than with Russia
@Anderson, R fake. anglo propaganda. only country with concentration camps is america. despite bring only 4% of the worlds population it has 20% of total prisoners in the world.
anything anglos accuse others of doing, they are actually projecting and are doing it themselves.
@Anderson, R They have had those camps since the Cultural Revolution in the 1970s, yet they still were accepted into the global economy.
An invasion of the only place on earth that has most of the world's cutting edge semiconductor production however, is different.
Also China already thinks they own Taiwan.
As HOI4 player, I can confirm that naval invading mountainous islands are a pain in the ass, especially if the enemy has advanced tech and weapons
Just wondering PolyMatter, in the list of presidents that you showed in this video, Why is former President Donald J. Trump left out of your list, but every other president is shown. What is your reason for leaving him out, because he was the president.
He was a terrible president, but president nonetheless. He should have been included in this video.
Yeah must be a Whinne the Pooh production.
I noticed that too. It throws his information into question if he's being that childish. I'm not even a fan of DJT but cmon PolyMatter, it makes your video look questionable.
Surely he can't be this childish... or can he? I don't like Trump at all but that is pathetic
so we know Mr. PolyMatter is extremely petty.
At 11:30, why did you not list Trump in your 100 year list of US presidents?
the same reason he calls China's debt trap fake, he's a paid shill
exactly what I asked
Just pathetic whether you like him or not.
@@RhodiumMoviesMC 100%
@@RhodiumMoviesMC I would assume it's an editing mistake - otherwise why leave a conspicuous blank space? Just put Obama and Biden next to each other and don't draw attention to it. Ockham's razor says it's a mistake and not a revisionist conspiracy lol
Plus tbh it's a bit of a crap graphic - with mistakes on Carter's lack of party symbol, inconsistency with naming schemes, weird gradient layering between JFK and Nixon, etc
As a Taiwanese I just wanna say thank you to PolyMatter for providing Information. I’ve seriously become so numb to this topic and videos like this really helps summarize quality information and raise awareness regarding this concerning topic.
I'm in Okinawa. So we're neighbors and definitely on edge out here.
Maybe you can clean up your country from the Nazi regime....before China does.
Don't worry guys. China will come for you and liberate you from US troops who have been occupying and raping your lands.
Don’t worry it’s not gonna happen, btw secure a pathway away from Taiwan in case anything happens, and secure a pathway from your destination, always have 2 backup places to go to in case your country goes bad, no place is safe.
@@orneryokinawan4529 China uses diplomatic pressure and economics to annex territories, they never use military because their military is weak, they probably would lose a war against Mongolia alone.
my 4 year of useless college education tells me that 24:8 and 3:1 might be equivalent
11:34 I know Trump wasnt anybody's favourite but this is either an honest mistake or just straight up petty
This guy has lost a lot of credibility
Yep. I was a subscriber for roughly 12 minutes. Even if you don't like Trump, its completely childish. GWB was waaaaay worse ha
I am not a fan of Trump but it throws his video into disrepute by omitting him so.
@@guptabhishek yeah, so petty and unprofessional. Lost my subscription
I don't think Taiwanese people would search for "Taiwan War" or "Taiwan unification" but instead search for "will China begin the war"
That's true
True
这还用搜，台独分子没几日了。
resume* The civil war was put on hold when ROC moved to Taiwan, at the time it was impossible for PRC to invade. It's literally just going to be part 2.
really bro? 11:34 still pushing some sort of narrative? last i remember donald trump was president after obama, and you just left him out? i would ask why but im sure i wouldnt care for the answer. really makes the viewer ask what else you left out.
For real! I was thinking the exact same thing.
Great video. I think though, it’s too optimistic (which is to say, I think China is a lot more likely to invade and a lot more likely to succeed than the video does) - China has been beating the drums of war for a long time, but only recently actually acquired the sort of strength they have now, and they’ve become much more aggressive internationally as well.
有意思的是，一个中国政策是中国与各国建交的常态，这是此前建交时各国都同意的，现在开始认为这是咄咄逼人的。我会问：为什么你认为它是一个国家，但现在感觉像是入侵？
@@menghu6683 没必要和他们交谈。他们欧美入侵阿富汗伊拉克南斯拉夫，甚至是南美洲小国时会说是入侵吗？他们就是故意的，而且很虚伪。
@11:32 why is Donald Trump missing in the list?
to prevent demonetization, I guess
Your graphic at 11:35 of American Presidents and their party affiliation omitted Donald Trump.
Why is that?
I disagree with your synopsis on Britain not having air superiority in the Falklands. Britain may have had less planes but the quality of equipment and training gave Britain that superiority over Argentina
From a strictly technical point of view, Britain never really achieved the textbook definition of air superiority, which is the ability to severely restrict the enemy air forces' ability to conduct air operations over the theatre of conflict (with air supremacy being the ability to more or less totally deny any air ops). As it happens, the Argentinian air force chose themselves to conduct fewer operations over time, as losses and the relative futility of continuing to try became apparent, but should they have had a sudden rush of shit to the brain, they could have kept trying
@@talltroll7092 yeah I was about to say like Britain was using harriers to Argentina’s A4s sure, but when you have air superiority a plane doesn’t shoot exorcet missiles and sink ships then strafe your landing party and get away with it 😂 Britain did good but air superiority wasn’t really fully achieved. That was such a strange but interesting war.
@@talltroll7092
The UK wiped the floor with the Argentine air force. They were so easily beaten that the UK could fly sorties over the Falkland Islands which it had not military right to do.
Britain didn't achieves air superiority, the skies over the Falklands were still very much contested between the two.
Sure the brits had the tech and skill on their side, but the argies had the numerical superiority, and not that relevant tech gap, and were pretty much operating from home, refueling from C-130 tanker planes along the way.
The argentineans were also able to perform night bombing raids over british positions with Camberra bombers, soemthing they wouldn't be able to if the brits had full air superiority.
@@LoboalphaMASTER
Britain was using inferior aircraft to the Argentines in the Falklands war.
24:8 is the same as 3:1, what was the point of this?
Nah it's 48:16 now
“No matter your political affiliations, you can’t say China hasn’t had the full range of American administrations to choose from”
Polymatter list all the presidents and associated party from the 1900’s until present day. Meanwhile 2018 = blank space 😂
Still scratching my head on why he did that. Seems very out of character even if he hates the orange man. Maybe YT algorithm related or something? If he is being petty that will just make people lose respect towards him.
I too noticed this and was enjoying the piece up to this point. Any information after the fact became suspect by such a glaring omission. History is history whether you like it or not.
I find it funny 2 commenters get offended by the Orange Man missing :D
So serious & stern ^^
News flash: Trump acted like a joke (often) & you are surprised the world treats his presidency as a joke? :D
Some people...
@@elektrotehnik94 He was still the president so get over it.
@@elektrotehnik94 this is not about offended or not. If you can censor such a well-known objective fact. How can your opinion worth considering to sane people with common sense.
Like other comments said China is building an army specifically capable of conquering Taiwan, and most of Chinese won’t consider the “might be” military action an invasion. They consider it “taking back” Taiwan. You can easily ask any Chinese from mainland “Is Taiwan part of China” 99% you will get an answer “yes, Taiwan is part of China.” What if Chinese won’t invade Taiwan? Well, all the skyrocketing spending on aircraft carriers,planes, submarines will become sink capital that served for no purpose waiting for becoming depreciation. Who want a propaganda that Chinese government is harmless? I guess that would definitely not be Donald Trump, the well known orange man. How can you put up a biased glass to omit apparent fact and still believe you conclusions are solid?Btw the land comparison argument made by the video is nonsense, in WW2 Japan invaded China, Germany invaded the entire Europe and the Soviet, why put a pseudo scientific argument to misguide people?
Overall this video is of low effort and low quality, I guess even you submit it as an essay to your high school project it would get a C.
I love how this "unbiased" analyst erased Trump from history.
you wish.
Best president
God if only we all could
He was showing all of the possible presidencies that China could've invaded Taiwan in and Trump was pretty anti-china so that might have been what he was suggesting, though it's still weird
Super weird Trump didn't show up in that chart though.
Timemark 11:34, and Polymatters shows me it as revisionist as some of the Dictators it decries. Makes me wonder what else you choose to elide.
Unsubscribed
I’m still waiting on the video “Why the USA is not Trinidad & Tobago”, these two are still confusing.
As a Taiwanese who happens to live in Linkou, this video is pretty accurate. Also we do worry about the war more recently, but life goes on and we're used to China's threat. Like they basically send aircrafts to our shoreline everyday and it's not even a news anymore. 🙏🏻peace
If you noticed your comment you questioned yourself and answered yourself, threat is not threat anymore it's become existential matter both for you. Problem is you both don't want peace hard and harsh way.
Just being so proud, ignorant to trying to look down each others head.
Statements getting sharper everyday, equipment and troops gathering to borders from both sides. If you both don't want peace deeply then war is inevitable, it's just matter of time then.
I am just trying to be realistic here.
First of all, Taiwan is a part of China. This is universally acknowledged. In fact, there is no armistice agreement in the civil war between Taiwan and Chinese Mainland. The threats are mutual. Taiwan is not an innocent victim
Chanana I have studied the subject a lot and Taiwan is really hard to invade, China does not have a strong lift or navy, their technology is and equipment, and personnel are untested and they have to attack an island far out in the sea, with a very turbulent waters . And then the CCP is not big gamblers like Putin. CCP have over 50% to lose the war and lose power i China, almost all exports and imports to China can be shut down because it is with ships, just that there is a risk of it happening is a risk it is unlikely CCP will run.
Peace :)
台湾岛上已经没有同胞，有的只是占领华夏民族土地的敌人。
Well, taiwan defence is 100% oriented at negating the landings, this year alone after what happened to the cruiser moskva I bet china is somehow concerned about the 200 new harpoon anti ship misiles taiwan has aquired and is polishing in their arsenals.
Taiwan is not on permanent "oh my god" mode, but not neglecting defence.
I came into this knowing most of the challenges with invading Taiwain (thankfully) but I hadn't heard about Operation Causeway before. It was a time of desperation and when desperate, people come up with some crazy plans. The fact that Taiwan was considered so costly at a time when America was out for blood really drives home the impossibility of an invasion which I am thankful for. Taiwan is not Ukraine and has been preparing for this fight since the end of WW2. All Taiwan would have to do is hold the line long enough for the Pacific Fleet to get involved and at that point, I'd consider it game over for an invasion.
Superpowers would never be involved in direct war. The time for defending Taiwan has long passed .
That is actually the official plan. To hold out long enough for help to arrive. Personally I think that western allies might be unreliable and that Taiwan really needs to be capable of it's own defense without assistance.
I guess you tell the same words to Ukraine last year.
Tell me, when Taiwan boombed China mainland and kill ppl in 1950s , when they sealed off the entire coastline of mainland in 1970s, when they took all mainland ppls' tax money and run into that island, where are you?
@@inception727 cope
You are too new at geopolitics, do some simple math. Taiwan is 100 miles from mainland China. It’s 10000 miles from the us mainland. China isn’t going anywhere. Let’s say us successfully prevents China from taking Taiwan. There will be a rearm and 2nd attempt, and a 3rd. And a 4th. It will never fucking end. Taiwan reuniting with China is all but an inevitability. 20 million people even with the help of 320 million. Cannnot defeat 1.5 billion people. Get that into your head
if that invasion happens, this is going to really affect the semiconductor industry for a very long time as taiwan holds at least 80 to 90 percent of that industry...as well as it home to several big companies like asus, gigabyte and msi.
Not just. Taiwan also supplies China and the United States with chips intended for Military use (drones, planes, missile control & guidance systems, etc.), thus crippling armed forces. Plus, replacing such specialized infrastructure would take decades due to how darn specialized such equipment really is. Big multi-trillion dollar companies rely solely on Taiwan's TSMC for production, a company (i.e. TSMC) that dwarves others in terms of efficiency like Samsung and Intel.
From a logical standpoint, invading Taiwan is a terrible, terrible idea. But as history has made it painfully clear time and time again, Wars _aren't_ logical.
Let's just hope that Xi Jin Ping, is.
That’s why I invest in Intel INTC
@MajorRenegade if china decides to attack taiwan now....everything goes down to drain...so they better hope the finish it and go full operation by then....
@@watema3381 Your imagination about TSMC isn't logical to begin with, and you're still crying despite it.
Of the high value semiconductors it is the US economy that creates the most. Medium to lower level is dominated by China.
If such a shutdown of the Taiwanese economy was to occur US desktop and micro scale processors would make laptops very popular again and other variations of that.
Very informative, thank you！
China's Final Warning (Russian: Последнее китайское предупреждение) is a Russian proverb meaning a warning that carries no real consequences.
Reagan was right: The Russians have a great sense of humor!
without any consequences? While MacArthur scoffed at China's warning, China's entry into North Korea surprised them
But you're the one too scared to try your separatist wars. Even token Russia isn't always scared of your warnings.
Russia signed a huge deal with China before war started. China is the only Reason why Russia can ressist sansactions these days. Zelensky insulted every leader in this world without Xi. I don't think Russia can affort to get a warning from China now.
@@xiyun688 How's North korea working out for you?
For one. You can walk from Moscow to Kyiv. But your not swimming from Southern China to Taipei.
nether can western arms shipments. Especially if the mainland decides to bomb all the runways and ports.
One correction: following the Chinese media, they have never claimed that it is 'easy' to take over Taiwan, it's only some Chinese people online who expresses this sentiment.
Actually, many Chinese "experts", whether it's military experts or economic experts have all claimed that it's so "easy" to take over Taiwan. They are saying that they don't care if they have to bomb the island flat, kill every Taiwanese if Taiwan resists. And it will be like a day trip on the beach. They will start the invasion in the morning, and have dinner in Taipei in the evening.
They do, at least indirectly for sure by mentioning their sheer size.
They DO it ALL The TIME.
The PRC government wants to invade Taiwan is mostly at the standpoint of CHINESE(Taiwan also called ROC right? And ROC used to rule the whole China, and Ciang Kai-shek was wanting to elimilate CCP, that's just the same situation but the two sides changed), instead of CCP.
6:40 isnt 24:8 the same as 3:1? If they have a bigger advantage shouldn't it be more like 24:1?
Thanks for finding that mistake!
No problem, Math is my eternal enemy.
"Here is a larger, more powerful, authoritharian and revisionist bully attacking its' democratic neighbour for nothing more than historical proximity"
And this channel is like unbiased or something like that?
That’s exactly what it is lmfao, imagine being pro war.
@@PigeonFlare imagine thinking that if I oppose your opinion, I am aligned with the opinion on the opposite side of the spectrum
Why biased? The CCP only has 9/100 on Freedom Houese while Taiwan has 94/100.
@@DommTom true, yet creating a parallel like that considering Ukraine and Russia, nope
@@DommTom Democracy and Authoritarianism are just simply a western propaganda. If they really care about humanity then why they didn't punish Mohammed Bin Salman for killing kashoggi.
There is a huge difference between having military power and projecting military power. And attacking a well fortified island with few possible landing sites requires a massive projection of power. One of the huge problems with Soviet style military doctrine is the lack of sustainable power projection as shown by Russia's inability to supply its own troops over land routes. This task gets much more complicated when you have to cross a body of water (even if it is a mere wide river), and much more so an ocean or sea or strait.
It's especially difficult when there are very few place for landing and very few good times for an amphibious invasion.
D-day was still difficult despite the German army literally being shattered with dispersed armored forces
An invasion of Taiwan will be far far harder
Another thing since the US actually has replacement fertility lower than Russia, 1 million people moved to the US last year. Less than 4k moved to China or Russia. Thats how the US is going to stay afloat and why its population continues to increase.
EVERY Western country is going to be declining but, even with immigration. That includes the US.
@@Matteus2109 Except that's not true. All projections show that by 2050 China will have lost hundreds of millions of people while the USA will gain tens of millions.
@@Matteus2109 Nope, the US only needs a 0.3 increase to stay afloat, the US population has never come close to going down year on year. Chinas decreased by 14k last year and will half by 2070. The US can expect immigrants from very fertile areas of the world, south America and Mexico. As well ad from the middle east, who will never go to China due to genocide.
You are correct that much of western Europe bar France is going to have a population shrink but its not like whats happening to China. This would happen to China anyway but then you have to factor the damage of the one child policey and the fact that its uneconomical for Chinese people to have more than 1 kid nowadays.
Even if its bad for the west, its a slaughter for China.
@@Matteus2109 Put simply, the US will see a 5-10% reduction.
The UK, at worst 25%.
China? Absolute slaughter, 50%+ population reduction. And remember, the US has India which is a reliable and growing deterence to China.
They're commited to help, four Indian warships joined an American battle group in the south China Sea recently.
@Zach Arb They are only a master at reducing population growth. They removed the one Child policy years ago and child birth rates have continued to go down.
Every year there are few women who can give birth and the culture that the Chinese government has pushed for decades mean women now only want one child or often none at all. Their population decline is unavoidable now.
There is an old saying in India 🇮🇳 it goes in this way :
" A war for life is always greater than a war for pride "
Ye konsi Saying hai bhai, maine toh aaj tak nhi suni😅
@@rajatsinghbhandari9549 it's popular in south of India and in Bali..
11:31 Did he avoid putting Donald Trumps name as one of the presidents? Its blank compared to every other slot.
Thank you for this incredibly well done piece.
One must not under calculate the certain economic consequences to China should they attempt to invade Taiwan. This alone is the most probable deterrent (factor).
但是，丢失台湾是任何中国政府都不能承受的损失，中国阻止台湾独立是不惜一切代价的，哪怕让台湾变成人间地狱。
Agreed. Russia is an oil based economy and they always knew they could find a market for their oil (outside a complete blockade, which would be impossible to enforce as Russia could always just use trucks to ship its oil to Kazakhstan and China). Meanwhile China needs NATO and its allies to buy its manufactured goods, which can be built by other countries, albeit at a relatively large cost, for roughly the same price. Russia was set up to be an Autarky apart from its oil exports and doesn't really need imports to satisfy the average Russian citizen. Meanwhile China depends on trade with the outside world to maintain its social contract with its citizens.
Lastly China has not been at war since the late 1970s, when it was finishing up a conflict with Vietnam that started under Mao. China has not been in a single war or major armed conflict since it started its economic transformation. That means that China has no real military experience with modern logistics or how its people will handle external conflict.
tl;dr: Taiwan has 6 letters, Ukraine has 7 letters => 6 =/= 7 because 6 < 7 => Taiwan =/= Ukraine.
That is why Taiwan is not Ukraine
Why did you not include Trump in your presidents list @11:35?
I guess someones bias is showing and maybe you're not neutral in your videos?
for the lulz. cry harder
Actually, in 9:11 there isn't called Linkou beach in Taiwan, we usually say there is ''Taipei Port'' or ''Bali'' in the leftside of river, and the other side there is ''Tamsui''
Wow. Very educational, thanks for this vid. Subbed
5:13 Air superiority wasn't a relevant thing in Gallipoli because the technology to achieve it for either side was simply not advanced enough.
It's ironic, how similar this video is to almost all videos about Ukraine and Russia before the start of the war
yep, so I guess the main difference is China and Russia. Russia is a declining power, its GDP is like 10% of the China, less than 10% of the US, while china is still developing quite fast,once China get a problem in its economy, then war might be possible.
Umm..
No its not similar at all, all videos and the USA predict Russia would take Ukarine
Good video. Even if it appears that China could or would never invade Taiwan, there's no way to be certain. History is full of military surprises. The French thought they were safe behind their Maginot Line. The U.S. believed the Japanese would never attack Pearl Harbor.
A Chinese invasion may seem very impractical, but the Chinese have had decades to consider every last detail, and plan accordingly. Conventional thinking might say an invasion was impossible, but all it takes is one military genius or "out of the box" thinker to make the impossible, possible.
France thought the Maginot Line would keep them safe; making a German attack unlikely because it was certain to fail. Instead, all it took was one Erich von Manstein, a relatively minor General, to suggest a different plan for the German attack, and France was defeated and forced to surrender in two months.
Also, I really how political science and foreign policy always emphasizes that humans and by extension states are completely rational and in their self interest. Foreign policy decisions aren't always rational. Instead of marching on Rome and capturing the senate, Hannibal of Carthage ravaged the countryside and lost the war. When Germany invaded the USSR, Stalin told his men not to shoot, hoping irrationally that they were misguided soldiers. Instead of continuing martial law, the US established elections, which ironically got anti-US politicians elected into power(who were usually backed by Iranian-backed Shia militia).The next leader who takes Taiwan will be celebrated in Chinese history as the leader who finished what Mao started. President Xi is looking to make his mark on China and maybe Taiwan will be his "mark"(hopefully he has better judgement and doesn't destabilize the world)
@@BeaverChainsaw Exactly. Misguided or irrational leaders made bad decisions all the time, thinking they can get away with something, or not fully thinking through the consequences. There are plenty of examples:
North Korea invaded South Korea in 1950, because a mistaken communication made it seem that the U.S. wasn't committed to defending it.
Saddam Hussein invaded Kuwait, because he thought he could get away with it; never believing an international coalition would come together to drive him out.
The Argentina government invaded the Falkland Islands, because they didn't believe that England, with it's defense spending severely cut back and Navy weakened, had either the means or willpower to launch a campaign to retake the Islands some 8,000 miles away.
All thinking that Russia😆 defeat Ukraine😋 in three days 🤗!
it probably won't be an invasion but a blitz to force a political surrender. If taiwan is faced with the prospect of being reduced to the next yemen it might cave.
The French weren't stupid - they knew that the Germans were going to attack via Belgium. In fact, that was the main purpose of the Maginot Line - to force the Germans to attack via Belgium. There were 2 main reasons for this: 1) Belgium is unlikely to allow the Germans free passage, and a German invasion would get other countries involved. 2) It allowed France to concentrate most of its manpower on the France/Belgium border. But apparently even the France/Belgium border is quite large, because they focused on the wrong part of it, and got steamrolled.
Dissing conscript-heavy militaries is pretty short-sighted. It's basically impossible to field large armies or sustain attrition without conscription, because conscription allows you to build up generations of reservists in waiting.
With motivation I think conscripted forces can be pretty formidable in a defensive war
I love that a US navy admiral that was posted between China and Taiwan reported the tension between two countries heating up. And then proceeded to immediately retire. What a mad lad.
Bro didn't want that smoke.😂
That's the best time to retire. Then when things go pear-shaped you can lament to everyone that holds still for five minutes that if only you'd been in charge everything would be great.
Maybe Zero needs to take charge of the situation then.
Ominous...
Also, couldn't help but notice a certain blank space between Obama and Biden at 11:29
I wonder how to take that...
"So why isn't Taiwan Ukraine?"
"Because they're two different countries."
*(outro plays)*
uh-oh! You upset the Party by calling Taiwan a county. -100500 social credit
the similarity I found in almost every millitary channel talking about Taiwan is that they all somehow claimed that "Chinese citizens are regularly told their country could easily take Twaiwan in a day". I was wondering how did you all get the same information without any surveys or reference?
It's easy, it's due to propaganda
@@agentmilton6585 True, Western propaganda is extremely effective. No other population has been so thoroughly brainwashed by their rulers. Propaganda exists everywhere, but only in the West do most people believe everything their government tells them about other countries. That's the reason why Western youtube channels make these kinds of sweeping unbased assertions, it's literally been programmed into their brain.