Stocks Likely To Be On A "Choppy Road To Nowhere" Until Election | Lance Roberts & Adam Taggart

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  • เผยแพร่เมื่อ 29 ต.ค. 2024
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    Now that Jerome Powell has gone "full pivot", will stocks shoot higher?
    Not necessarily, says portfolio manager Michael Lebowitz, who steps in this week while Lance Roberts moves into his new house.
    He thinks stocks will be on a "choppy road to nowhere" between now and the election. We discuss why, as well as his rosy outlook for long-duration bonds on this week's Market Recap.
    #bonds #fedpivot #interestrates
    _____________________________________________
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ความคิดเห็น • 287

  • @adam.taggart
    @adam.taggart  2 หลายเดือนก่อน +8

    WORRIED ABOUT THE MARKET? SCHEDULE YOUR FREE PORTFOLIO REVIEW with Thoughtful Money's endorsed financial advisors at www.thoughtfulmoney.com

    • @LDP..
      @LDP.. 2 หลายเดือนก่อน

      great video ! you should do a collab with Gary Stevenson ! you guys have a complementary style of presenting !

    • @Why-How-WhatIF
      @Why-How-WhatIF 2 หลายเดือนก่อน +3

      THIS IS MY 2nd REQUEST. Hello Adam & Lance, you are both proponents of hiring a financial advisor. Can you show us the 5/10/20/30 year RETURNS and DRAWDOWNS for the (60-40 RIA) portfolio which charges a 1% ANNUAL fee versus the average investor's (60% VTI & 40% VGIT buy-hold-rebalance-monthly) portfolio that has a 0.03% fee for someone in their retirement years drawing 4% each year? What does the 1% annual fee buy me apart from the psychological therapy when the markets fall?. You call this channel thoughtful money, so please come clean and answer this question for your viewers. Also, don't forget that it takes a long time to get 100K viewers and build trust however it can take less than a month to erode that trust if people realize that you are trying to brainwash (repeat something multiple times so that people start believing in your narrative) them into spending 1% of their portfolio each year with active money managers. I hope you will take this criticism constructively. best regards!

    • @Jalleur14325
      @Jalleur14325 2 หลายเดือนก่อน +1

      Hi Adam - in your next interviews can you discuss the falling dollar. Inflation came down because of the strong dollar. But the dollar is now a lot lower, so will that mean that we get inflation flaring up (even further) again. Cutting rates is likely to weaken the dollar further.

    • @Jalleur14325
      @Jalleur14325 2 หลายเดือนก่อน +1

      ​@@Why-How-WhatIFI looked into the case for a financial advisor and my aunt has one and has done extremely well. She's up 30-40 in 2-3 years. But none of them actually stock pick and just seem to charge to put your money in funds and ETFs. So I feel like that is the skill I would pay someone for (stock picking), not just shovelling money into funds!

    • @Why-How-WhatIF
      @Why-How-WhatIF 2 หลายเดือนก่อน

      @@Jalleur14325 you didn't understand my question. What is the difference in return between an active (etf) vs active (stock picking) vs passive (etf) approach is what I would like to understand.

  • @HODIUSDUDE
    @HODIUSDUDE 2 หลายเดือนก่อน +34

    I enjoy these full shows with Michael Leibowitz. He doesn't get enough time on the RIA channel. I hope you bring him back more frequently.

    • @Why-How-WhatIF
      @Why-How-WhatIF 2 หลายเดือนก่อน

      he is an awesome speaker ...very composed, pragmatic, and humble!

  • @Adambarking
    @Adambarking 2 หลายเดือนก่อน +61

    I dont even know where the stock market is headed to right now. my portfolio of around 200k is not increasing more than 5% and people are predicting a crash .

    • @Benedictrud
      @Benedictrud 2 หลายเดือนก่อน +3

      i'd advise you redistribute assets in your portfolio with the help of a pro so you don't get burnt in the market

    • @MickyGlover
      @MickyGlover 2 หลายเดือนก่อน +2

      The truth is that this is really not as difficult as many people presume it to be. It requires a certain level of diligence, no doubt, which is something ordinary investors lack, and so a financial advisor often comes in very handy. My friend just pulled in more than $84k last month alone from his investment with his advisor. That is how people are able to make such huge profits in the market

    • @donovantobs
      @donovantobs 2 หลายเดือนก่อน +2

      nice! once you hit a big milestone, the next comes easier.. who is your advisor please, if you don't mind me asking?

    • @MickyGlover
      @MickyGlover 2 หลายเดือนก่อน +2

      Her name is. MARY TERESE SINGH . Just research the name. You’d find necessary details to work with a correspondence to set up an appointment.

    • @donovantobs
      @donovantobs 2 หลายเดือนก่อน

      I just curiously searched her up, and I have sent her an email. I hope she gets back to me soon. Thank you

  • @marcfd3756
    @marcfd3756 2 หลายเดือนก่อน +17

    More Mike, please (but not less Lance)! Great, thoughtful interview! Thanks! Keep up the great work. Your content is actionable and balanced. Exactly what is needed!

  • @HSADevelopers
    @HSADevelopers 2 หลายเดือนก่อน +31

    Adam, you need a Mike photo for the thumbnail so we don't get the no Lance fakeout in the future 😅

  • @bhe8336
    @bhe8336 2 หลายเดือนก่อน +8

    Michael is very insightful. Bring him on more.

  • @solskengroupllp2758
    @solskengroupllp2758 2 หลายเดือนก่อน +16

    WAGES ARE NOT HIGHER FOR MOST PEOPLE! So sick of hearing this. Oil service jobs, energy, all office and administration jobs, etc haven't given raises in years. In fact, all the above are farming out to overseas huge swaths of their company departments: payroll, HR, benefits, etc to be done cheaper in Columbia, Costa Rica, Bulgaria. 130K jobs lost in tech so far this year. Lance is here to sell his services and has to talk it up like great times are around the corner.

    • @SomeUserNameBlahBlah
      @SomeUserNameBlahBlah 2 หลายเดือนก่อน +6

      Wages on the lower end are up, but inflation blows past the pay increase.

    • @tactileslut
      @tactileslut 2 หลายเดือนก่อน

      @SomeUserNameBlahBlah They're up in some states, but far from all, and as the other guy said a lot of jobs are outsourced. There's a reason the girl on the customer support line has a phillipina accent.

    • @rosaoddin4338
      @rosaoddin4338 2 หลายเดือนก่อน +3

      Agreed, the wage increases even over Covid period, at my company average 1 to 1.5 percent. To achieve 2 is unusual. I work for a large firm, we’ve also been cutting employees, even departments and outsourcing to third-party entities in Bangladesh, Mexico, etc. the average worker (middle, lower class ie working class) is in a pickle in USA. Manufacturing jobs, entire segments of economy overseas, etc.

  • @993C2S
    @993C2S 2 หลายเดือนก่อน +10

    Please make Michael a regular Saturday morning guest at least once a month.

  • @JimBadal
    @JimBadal 2 หลายเดือนก่อน +7

    I signed up with RIA Advisors, the models and how they shape your portfolio to your needs/risk levels works for me. Where else could I find a firm with a daily radio show/you tube show that keeps you informed and they have weekly newsletters/daily blogs. my point is this firm is so connected to their clients and non clients more than a quarterly/bi annual meeting with your planner. great job guys!

    • @Why-How-WhatIF
      @Why-How-WhatIF 2 หลายเดือนก่อน +1

      you are absolutely correct, there no doubt about that. however, my question still holds. What is the real rate of return difference between RIA vs a (60%VTI-40%VGIT buy-hold-monthly-rebalance) strategy which has a fee of 0.03% instead of the 1% that RIA and other in the industry charge. The cost of this 1% over 30 years is more than 30% given the compounding. I am just trying to make an educated decision on the benefits of using a money management firm if you will

    • @JRRob3wn
      @JRRob3wn 2 หลายเดือนก่อน

      What is their 1 / 3 / 5 / 10 rate of return vs the benchmark, net of fees and taxes? When I asked them that question they refused to answer and ghosted me.

  • @jerrysteffy7900
    @jerrysteffy7900 2 หลายเดือนก่อน +2

    One of the most crucial parts of this discussion occurs between Adam and Mike starting about the 34 th minute. There are millions of American investors that placed a LOAD of savings in short term treasuries and money markets the past two years.
    The upcoming changing conditions with Fed cuts between September and early next year will have a massive impact on these investors. If the drop in money market yields and short term treasury yields is simultaneous with a large NASDAQ sell-off , it will be extremely difficult.

  • @HoldenMcCash
    @HoldenMcCash 2 หลายเดือนก่อน +4

    Thank you, Adam Taggart, for bringing these RIA experts. They often provide great macro insights as well as timely hints on trades.

  • @BrainGraze
    @BrainGraze 2 หลายเดือนก่อน +1

    Nice discussion with Mike. Okay from Team Taggart to bring him back :) There is something calm about him (low personal volatility) 😊

  • @bananaskin7527
    @bananaskin7527 2 หลายเดือนก่อน +1

    I enjoy Michael Leibowitz's views too. Dear Adam, sometimes as you respond, and converse, and go to your next question/point, I forget where your discussion was last. I have no constructive idea/alternative to suggest. Thank you Adam Taggart. I followed you here from Wealthion - if that matters.

  • @quixomega
    @quixomega 2 หลายเดือนก่อน +3

    Michael Libowitz is a very interesting interview, you don't need to label these videos as being with Lance to get use to watch.

  • @PeteGordonUSA
    @PeteGordonUSA 2 หลายเดือนก่อน +2

    Really enjoy the wisdom at the end to support local neighborhood sports and local musicians. Our attention and our time is our most valuable asset.

  • @kevinvandevelde9699
    @kevinvandevelde9699 2 หลายเดือนก่อน +5

    That restaurant comparison was excellent as an illustration.

  • @nadruik9890
    @nadruik9890 2 หลายเดือนก่อน +1

    You can tell this guy is top of a company, only c suite salaries are up 20-100%, if you just kept the same job your salary is up 3-5% a year unless you made minimum wage

  • @MarionBlair
    @MarionBlair 2 หลายเดือนก่อน

    Michael Leibowitz's views on bonds is very helpful. Very common-sense approach to investing. Very good guest, bring him back.

  • @mattanderson6672
    @mattanderson6672 2 หลายเดือนก่อน +2

    Thank you so much guys!!
    Always love listening to Mike
    Who needs Lance anyway! 🤣🤣🤣🤣

  • @robertharrelson5024
    @robertharrelson5024 2 หลายเดือนก่อน +2

    Micheal is one of my favorite guests you have on this channel.

  • @Why-How-WhatIF
    @Why-How-WhatIF 2 หลายเดือนก่อน +4

    This is my second request :) Hello Adam & Lance, you talk about hiring a financial advisor at least 3 times in each video. Can you show us the 5/10/15/20 year RETURNS and DRAWDOWNS for the (60-40 RIA) portfolio which charges a 1% annual fee versus the average investor's (60% VTI & 40% VGIT buy-hold-rebalance-monthly) portfolio that has a 0.03% fee for someone in their retirement years drawing 4% each year? I am looking for a quantitative case instead of a qualitative one.

    • @richardpeterson6911
      @richardpeterson6911 2 หลายเดือนก่อน

      This is one of the key questions an investor should ask when interviewing a financial advisor: your returns vs. your benchmark(?) As part of my profession at Schwab, I used to go to client interviews w/ the investor and ask this question along with a number of others, such as: what is your sell discipline?

    • @JRRob3wn
      @JRRob3wn 2 หลายเดือนก่อน +1

      I talked to RIA and asked similar questions. They outright refused to answer my questions and then ghosted me. I had over 7 figures to invest. AVOID at all costs. Follow the Bogle method.

  • @timothymcclung2256
    @timothymcclung2256 2 หลายเดือนก่อน +1

    As an engineer living in the Midwest I can tell you the 'oh salaries have nearly kept up with inflation' is the most, inaccurate, elitist bull. My bills have nearly doubled in the last five years. I can confirm my salary has not.

  • @umph-h-hgolfer3494
    @umph-h-hgolfer3494 2 หลายเดือนก่อน +1

    What about ongoing inflation? What about runaway government deficit spending? What about asset bubbles, in housing and equities, and maybe also bonds, since inflation is not yet under control? The play book could be different this time.

  • @stevencanal4178
    @stevencanal4178 2 หลายเดือนก่อน +6

    I appreciate the fact that Michael makes investing comprehensible for the average retail investor.

  • @bhaskartripathi8758
    @bhaskartripathi8758 2 หลายเดือนก่อน +3

    I usually don't eat out a lot, may once a week max. But in the last few years, the inflation in restaurants has become so ridiculous, I have stopped doing even that.

  • @SilverCpa
    @SilverCpa 2 หลายเดือนก่อน +1

    Echo the sentiments I'm seeing here-Mike is a fantastic guest and we need more of him.

  • @slipkid68
    @slipkid68 2 หลายเดือนก่อน +2

    My wages have gone up 6% in the last 2 years, almost everything has doubled. I am sorry but stop telling people how much wages have gone up, they have not for 99% of average folks.

  • @411faithhopelove
    @411faithhopelove 2 หลายเดือนก่อน +1

    Michael has a very well balanced view and is quite pragmatic. I loved the restaurant analogy as it makes perfect sense.

  • @carltannehill8307
    @carltannehill8307 2 หลายเดือนก่อน +2

    He is full of it. My pay is up 7%

  • @jandejong2430
    @jandejong2430 2 หลายเดือนก่อน +3

    Wolf Richter is not happy if you "correct" goods sales for CPI. It is mostly influenced by services, not goods.

  • @4000angels
    @4000angels 2 หลายเดือนก่อน +4

    Excellent interview as always

  • @jeremymarkle7459
    @jeremymarkle7459 2 หลายเดือนก่อน +4

    I’m curious to know what Michael Leibowitz sees in terms of an upcoming resilient economy. There’s plenty of indicators (rising unemployment, diminishing consumer sentiment, diminishing ‘real’ non-seasonally adjusted retail numbers, rising credit delinquencies) to suggest economic numbers will slow down. Not to mention more companies will have their debt re-rated next year at higher interest rate levels, most likely leading to more layoffs, and further diminished earnings etc. It’s difficult to see the future economic resiliency, but as I said just curious to see that perception.

    • @Jalleur14325
      @Jalleur14325 2 หลายเดือนก่อน

      I wonder whether it's just purely looking at markets he is interpreting resilience? Or maybe just mega caps?

    • @bhe8336
      @bhe8336 2 หลายเดือนก่อน

      If these concerns come to fruition in a negative enough way to induce recession, the government will take drastic action through its fed proxy to juice sentiment and liquidity levels. The government itself will give people money again This will lead to greater confidence and increased prices/inflation expectations which will crash the long bond trade and juice small caps

    • @richardpeterson6911
      @richardpeterson6911 2 หลายเดือนก่อน

      Ted Oakley at Oxbow Advisors says his firm follows approximate 30 economic indicators, and nearly all of them are negative. I would also refer you to Danielle DeMartino Booth--whom Adam has interviewed several times--who says that we are on a downward path now which is being covered up by the government. Hey, let's get elected/re-elected! How naive indeed are the American public.

    • @jeremymarkle7459
      @jeremymarkle7459 2 หลายเดือนก่อน

      @@bhe8336​​⁠​⁠​⁠but what you’re describing still wouldn’t avoid our economic system moving towards a downward, and most likely, painful path first. We know the government will continue the fiscal spending/stimulus but most of that ends up being “unproductive” debt not helping to organically boost economic growth. With imploding economic numbers most likely ahead, the Fed will have to aggressively cut to try and catch a falling knife. If/when that leads to another inflation cycle, I don’t see how the diminished, average consumer (majority of the nation) can maintain.

  • @crystalitsasecrete917
    @crystalitsasecrete917 2 หลายเดือนก่อน

    It would be so nice if you could persuade Michael to be interviewed more often (maybe once a month).

  • @markphillips2648
    @markphillips2648 2 หลายเดือนก่อน +13

    Interestingly enough I was in Marin County Costco last night and as my wife and I were entering the front door the greater was holding a “Gold bars for sale sign.” I inquired as to the particulars and he said, “We only have seven left and there is a line for them.”
    Perhaps I should include this in my fear metrics along with commuter traffic flows and restaurants traffic!

  • @barnyjones5024
    @barnyjones5024 2 หลายเดือนก่อน

    It's disturbing how flippantly this guy admits the fed knew the jobs numbers were a lie.

  • @AB-ml9fm
    @AB-ml9fm 2 หลายเดือนก่อน +1

    I love Adam's use of analogies and metaphors - no better way to help people visualize complex topics.

    • @Jalleur14325
      @Jalleur14325 2 หลายเดือนก่อน

      Yes. Except when they are gory!

  • @jeffasti8625
    @jeffasti8625 2 หลายเดือนก่อน +1

    Great commentary on the bond trade which I entered 18 months ago and it is working very well.

  • @k.dermer2168
    @k.dermer2168 2 หลายเดือนก่อน +4

    My food budget is irrelevant to me, but I stopped buying some items at the grocery store because the prices are ludicrously beyond the value of the item to me. I also have stopped going to restaurants that have absurd prices with lousy food but apparently are sufficiently trendy that people still rave about them. I did notice a drop-off in difficulty of getting reservations when a family member has a birthday, etc, so, either other people are now admitting that home made pasta tastes really bad (emperor has no clothes effect) or the 30ish-40ish crowd that has trouble paying their rent has decided they should go back to Barilla's whole wheat pasta for $5 a serving vs. $100 / serving questionable gritty home-made stuff served in a sketchy, "upscale" remodeled downtown warehouse by people who resent the people paying their salaries. Has truthiness reared its head among the overpaid masses in Los Angeles at last?? One thing about recessions--the òverpriced lifestyles goingbinto it grnerally are not the same lifestyles that emerge from it. Maybe some day I can enjoy eating out again. For now, I cook at home, regardless of my financial situation. I think the overblown restaurant scrne in LA will shrink 80% in the next recession. Maybe Lowes can sell some of those 5 jillion barbecue grills outside their front doors.😂

  • @robbro3589
    @robbro3589 2 หลายเดือนก่อน +1

    Have wages caught up with inflation of the last few years? I know mine didn't.

  • @Silvangreen
    @Silvangreen 2 หลายเดือนก่อน +1

    Things are absolutely different this time. We are running WW2 era deficits providing a level of fiscal stimulus that makes it difficult to have a recession. That’s why we haven’t had one. Is anyone is predicting an end to the fiscal gravy train? Sectors of the economy are doing poorly and you can point to them and say “we are usually in a recession when we see these numbers” (See D.D. Booth over and over), but the fiscal situation isn’t usual. If and when a shock causes a bear market in equities that is when a recession is probable, when Fed stimulus returns, and when betting on long-term Treasuries could turn ugly once again. I’m not going to the US government for LT yield.

  • @MichaelHarrington17
    @MichaelHarrington17 2 หลายเดือนก่อน +1

    I would question 2% inflation normalized unless we’re facing a global deflation. Deglobalization, tariffs, nationalization, commodity constraints, and govts’ desire to depreciate sovereign debt makes me think the desired norm will be more around 3% and possibly tolerated up to 4%. This is the risk to LT bonds.

  • @patrickmcgoohan115
    @patrickmcgoohan115 2 หลายเดือนก่อน

    The Inflation or deflation delima? After reading the August 2019 black rock release, I've come to the conclusion "where there's a will, there's a way" given enough time. The August report, among many things, mentioned Fiscal policy.

  • @pauliusmatiusovas4102
    @pauliusmatiusovas4102 2 หลายเดือนก่อน +1

    You can't eliminate the business cycle, but you can make it worse - Fed and Central planners

  • @sharibuckler8529
    @sharibuckler8529 2 หลายเดือนก่อน +2

    Its not the settings. It is you tube. I get alerts from food channels, tiny houses, etc. All my notifications from financial channels, homesteading, etc have stopped. I have to look for you.

  • @johnmerlino7011
    @johnmerlino7011 2 หลายเดือนก่อน +1

    Mag 7 valuations are crazy high. Nvidia valuation is $3.2 Trillion for ~22.6b in DC GPU qtrly sales with six companies making ~45% of those purchases. Are they going to repeat those sales this quarter reporting on Wednesday (28th)?

  • @charlesdidonato5478
    @charlesdidonato5478 2 หลายเดือนก่อน +6

    What about all the people that have lost there jobs and are now struggling to make ends meet? What about the worldwide debt bubble?

    • @bpb5541
      @bpb5541 2 หลายเดือนก่อน

      Well in order to get inflation to come down unemployment must go up. It's the way it works. Pick one. You can have low unemployment and prices just keep going up until they get so expesive that no one can afford anything anyways. We are in a bad position.

  • @petergozinya6122
    @petergozinya6122 2 หลายเดือนก่อน +1

    Thank you Adam and Michael.
    Have a great weekend.

  • @rjdebruyn
    @rjdebruyn 2 หลายเดือนก่อน +1

    Why is he saying the US is not in recession? The US us in recession. Take out government spending and that fact is crystal clear.

  • @George-d9l
    @George-d9l 2 หลายเดือนก่อน

    What happens to an economy if a governments decides to keep base rates at near zero for 12 years and prints trillions of dollars and dumps it into that economy. Massive speculation, masssive consumer spending and massive inflation and then financial collapse.

  • @lisaknudsonlcsw3730
    @lisaknudsonlcsw3730 2 หลายเดือนก่อน +2

    I'm self employed and my income has gone down 50%. It's been a steady decline since Oct 2023. This is the first time I've experienced this since 2013 when I opened my practice.

    • @GaltsG
      @GaltsG 2 หลายเดือนก่อน +1

      You’re not alone. I have had a small business for 30 years and sales are down below 2008 levels.

  • @Gabber44906
    @Gabber44906 2 หลายเดือนก่อน +9

    The Gov lies!

    • @MrTigerStarX
      @MrTigerStarX 2 หลายเดือนก่อน

      Everyone lies unfortunately

    • @douglash.8862
      @douglash.8862 2 หลายเดือนก่อน

      THIS, CURRENT,. Gov'ment,. LIES !!
      I'm Voting FOR a Better,.. LIFE and,. Economy, with,. T and, V !
      Powell's gonna "Do",. a "Soft Landing",. so,. I'm HOLDING for, Now !
      Recession, in Rear view mirror for,. A WHILE !

  • @InfinityIsland2203
    @InfinityIsland2203 2 หลายเดือนก่อน +1

    Noones wages went up 20%, except for politicians.

  • @johnmerlino7011
    @johnmerlino7011 2 หลายเดือนก่อน

    Adam, I expect stagflation, no matter who wins the election. Higher taxes, higher tariffs, deportations, wars, higher government and corporate interest expenses, failing businesses, consumer credit cards are at all-time highs, US manufacturing is a focus, higher container costs, railway strikes in Canada, debt defaults, etc etc. all can drive more inflation. This last quarter's corporate earnings are showing degradation of sales growth and margins. I'm with Jim Bianco on thinking the long-end of the curve will remain high (4%-5%) even if the short duration bond yields get cuts by the Fed. An escalation of Israel/Iran war could pop energy up greatly and would drive inflation tomorrow! Stock market manipulation is all what the Fed is all about, but the Mag 7 are big targets now with anti-trust, GenAI issues, Stock index weighting changes, and buyback taxes etc. Adam, you are so right, I started migrating out to 3 year treasuries from 3mth-2yr. (longer duration).

  • @jdel2151
    @jdel2151 2 หลายเดือนก่อน +4

    Love when Mike comes on

  • @FreeSpeech4All
    @FreeSpeech4All 2 หลายเดือนก่อน

    After 3 straight years of "Rates can only go down because the government can't afford these rates" and condescendingly mocking anyone and everyone who suggested otherwise...
    Mike now comes out and says, "Well, rates could go higher if we print a bunch of money and start handing it out again"... without an apology, a mea culpa or even an acknowledgement that RIA is flip-flopping.
    Find a financial advisor with the integrity, humility and strength of character to say, "Hey, what we overlooked is that the government can actually afford ANY rate of interest if they just print enough money to pay it".
    RIA is NOT that financial advisor... and Lance is always absent when they are proven most wrong or need to flip-flop.
    It should be embarrassing for them.

    • @JRRob3wn
      @JRRob3wn 2 หลายเดือนก่อน +1

      RIA is a shady outfit.

  • @DrewbyOneKenubi
    @DrewbyOneKenubi 2 หลายเดือนก่อน +2

    Wages are now going down

  • @karlbork6039
    @karlbork6039 2 หลายเดือนก่อน +2

    Lower interest rates will hurt the top 20%.

  • @Rubenbox409
    @Rubenbox409 2 หลายเดือนก่อน

    I don’t think there needs to be rate cuts. Its been years since you could get 4.5% in savings accounts, and 5.25% in t-bills. Lowering rates will cause rampant speculating and housing prices to soar again

  • @MaddieBr
    @MaddieBr 2 หลายเดือนก่อน +1

    Adam didn't bring up the "maturity wall". If rates go down a little, but recession lowers revenues, seems rolling over corporate/CRE debt will still be problematic

  • @RobWilliams007
    @RobWilliams007 2 หลายเดือนก่อน +1

    Cause and effect - we don’t enter a recession because we cut rates - they cut rates to stimulate because we are already in trouble.

  • @pwatom22
    @pwatom22 2 หลายเดือนก่อน +1

    I think the Wolf perspective is correct. The last 10 year patterns will prevail with the edge to a more bullish trend overall. Financial results will dictate the peaks and troughs. Buy the dip Mack.

  • @jeffersonblackmon
    @jeffersonblackmon 2 หลายเดือนก่อน +1

    "They" said the Fed was going to cut rates 6 or 7 times at the end of 2023 and beginning of 2024.

  • @dale5710
    @dale5710 2 หลายเดือนก่อน +1

    Adam's background best part of the show.

  • @MarkFeragamo-iw3sm
    @MarkFeragamo-iw3sm 2 หลายเดือนก่อน

    Inflation is stuck because government kept printing money. Shelter is high because of high interest rates.

  • @sivi9741
    @sivi9741 2 หลายเดือนก่อน

    Did the fed finish QT or they will keep doing it while lowering rates ?

  • @RobWilliams007
    @RobWilliams007 2 หลายเดือนก่อน

    How do you sell your government bonds on the open market?

  • @friarnewborg9213
    @friarnewborg9213 2 หลายเดือนก่อน +1

    Hmm. David Hunter thinks this "NOwhere" may be a Melt up. Let's see

  • @markhow4266
    @markhow4266 2 หลายเดือนก่อน +1

    Great show

  • @RobWilliams007
    @RobWilliams007 2 หลายเดือนก่อน +1

    Michael, you may get that boost because people have so much credit card debt that they may either take out HELOCS or refi to pay those and 10% car loans. But I get what you’re saying.

  • @jeffc6745
    @jeffc6745 2 หลายเดือนก่อน

    9 days ago it was stocks are headed higher, now you’re saying it’s a choppy road to nowhere. You guys are the same firm aren’t you?

    • @JRRob3wn
      @JRRob3wn 2 หลายเดือนก่อน

      They are shady and don’t know what they are doing when it comes to investing, stay away.

  • @EverythingMy360
    @EverythingMy360 2 หลายเดือนก่อน +7

    Adam, not sure you recognized, but you have been talking 60% of the show.

  • @HML-it7te
    @HML-it7te 2 หลายเดือนก่อน +1

    Adam, you should look into the reasons why the lid is kept on the price of Silver, how it’s done, what could force this “planned pressure” to no longer be effective.
    This is much more than just the yearly deficit in physical silver.
    I don’t trust the official figures anyway, because there is a very large need to keep the lid on the pot.

  • @pwatom22
    @pwatom22 2 หลายเดือนก่อน +1

    In a lot of cases wages have not gone up.

  • @grc7231
    @grc7231 2 หลายเดือนก่อน +3

    Lance and Michael are the only guests on this channel who are not doomers.

    • @mkan38
      @mkan38 2 หลายเดือนก่อน

      Although both are sounding more bearish lately.

    • @JRRob3wn
      @JRRob3wn 2 หลายเดือนก่อน

      They were doomers for years, now they’re hedging their bets. Very shady outfit.

  • @Bob-l9d
    @Bob-l9d 2 หลายเดือนก่อน +1

    Not sure are this real numbers or just a crap. Everything you go shop almost double price what I remember.

  • @dunerider450f
    @dunerider450f 2 หลายเดือนก่อน +3

    Bonds are great for people with “government Stockholm syndrome.” No thank you!

  • @RobWilliams007
    @RobWilliams007 2 หลายเดือนก่อน +1

    Almost everything is transitory depending on the timeline!

  • @mooselodge3881
    @mooselodge3881 2 หลายเดือนก่อน +1

    Prices still going up. And people are losing jobs

  • @detectiveofmoneypolitics
    @detectiveofmoneypolitics 2 หลายเดือนก่อน

    Detective of Money Politics is following this informative content and cheers from VK3GFS and 73s from Frank

  • @greghall4560
    @greghall4560 2 หลายเดือนก่อน +1

    Michael sharing his screen for SimpleVisor was much better than Lance’s Morning Update because the scale was more legible and it showed the dates as Michael moved around on the screen. Correction on Weinstein: he was an excellent producer; unfortunately not a good person. Buffalo Herd analogy might be useful - very few buffalo (less than 2%) in the herd hear the den of rattlesnakes sounding the alert. But when the herd sees their buddies running, they start running as well, although they have no idea why they are stampeding. Very scary if you are on the road with hundreds of these beasts coming in your direction.

  • @jonEmontana
    @jonEmontana 2 หลายเดือนก่อน

    Sentiment - I'd say if the bottom 1/2 either loses their job or is worried about it and cuts spending 5-10% .....that would get the top of 1/2 (wealth effecters) to slow their spending some too thus accelerating the slow down.

  • @lorilacour7816
    @lorilacour7816 2 หลายเดือนก่อน

    Great, love when you have him on with you.

  • @guptaajay
    @guptaajay 2 หลายเดือนก่อน +2

    I dont think people know how bad is unemployment, recession is already here and will get worse with months. Even govt project are getting slash (first hand experience)

  • @babaali7050
    @babaali7050 2 หลายเดือนก่อน

    I am a scalper. I follow your channel. It has been a year, I have aligned my trading strategies with insight of the experts that you invite on your channel. My success rate has increased dramatically. I am from a third world country. On youtube only your channel offers the insight of the market the way traders always need. Thank you so much. I wish you good health and prosperity.

  • @dilligaf2403
    @dilligaf2403 2 หลายเดือนก่อน +2

    last fall I bought a sh!t ton of 20yr treasuries and I'm amazed how many people think you have to hold them till maturity....I thought so too if it wasn't for this channel! plan to sell them as soon a the fed stops lowering rates and then will by discounted stocks🤞

    • @dilligaf2403
      @dilligaf2403 2 หลายเดือนก่อน

      @@alliedmastercomputer5407 dood I bought them KNOWING I would sell in a couple of years, ever heard of convexity?

    • @FreeSpeech4All
      @FreeSpeech4All 2 หลายเดือนก่อน

      Don't wait that long. When the Fed cuts the overnight rate this time, the bond vigilantes will know the inflation fight is over and take the long end much, MUCH higher.
      I continue to load up on 2025 TLT puts through the election.

  • @k.dermer2168
    @k.dermer2168 2 หลายเดือนก่อน

    I did not hear the conf call myself, because I do not own WMT stock, but allegedly the CEO said they had replaced many ("hundreds") workers in their planning, logistics, fulfillment, etc by AI, saving tons of money. I have done special orders at WMT that were incredibly botched in the past, so I think this is true, and AI wiĺ make things better. It cannot make them worse. .In LA, where minimally skilled workers now paid $20/hour wait on you at fast food joints, you can bet that there will be NO humans working in 2-4 years. Since housing is so expensive that $20 /hr is still not enough, this means we won't have so many people living in cars on our residential streets. I hope all the low skilled workers can move and find jobs in the South.

  • @bostonfrank6739
    @bostonfrank6739 2 หลายเดือนก่อน +1

    your video says you are interviewing Lance Roberts , & you keep calling this guy Michael. What is his last name?

    • @k.dermer2168
      @k.dermer2168 2 หลายเดือนก่อน

      liebowitz. a partner of lance

  • @jmcmob608
    @jmcmob608 2 หลายเดือนก่อน +1

    Thank you very much...

  • @AuntPeggy1019
    @AuntPeggy1019 2 หลายเดือนก่อน +1

    Key statement here is that inflation makes things look better.

  • @realpropertymangement7640
    @realpropertymangement7640 2 หลายเดือนก่อน

    Wishful thinking that the inflation rate continues to decrease after rate cuts are implemented. And who in their right mind would invest in long bonds of an insolvent entity (USG). But I guess if you already have, you're desperate to express a justification for having done so.

  • @GhostofJohnDaly
    @GhostofJohnDaly 2 หลายเดือนก่อน +1

    KUDOS on the background Adam!

    • @LocoCocoJorge
      @LocoCocoJorge 2 หลายเดือนก่อน +1

      You're kidding, right?

    • @BIgBass255
      @BIgBass255 2 หลายเดือนก่อน

      I'm afraid to ask what that is. Does anyone know.

  • @jonEmontana
    @jonEmontana 2 หลายเดือนก่อน +2

    On the middle class doing well ....there a ton of fairly new post college graduates still being subsidized at fairly high levels by their parents or GP's also creating a K shaped economy for this demographic feeling the most hopeless id say. I was around a siblings kid last wkend that's been out of school for a couple yrs and still being subsidized snd traveling a ton....she has no idea what reality is and what Bidenomics has done to her .....and I say that even though she just moved back from a subsidized condo in aurora, co and in with her parents in KC. I was sitting listening to her complain about Denver and crime and traffic and even the 3 apt complexes that Venezuelan gangs have taken over in aurora ....and acting bummed that TRump might win. I was like ...seriously ....Kamala imported tons of cartel and gangs to your suburb and you're bummed about Trump?! Wtf? Subsidized kids are the dumbest amongst us. This is someone that graduated from a state college that's very biased in 3 yrs with a damn good science degree, landed a great job with U of Colo and then quit it without another job like 60 days in and has worked at lululemon for 19 months.

    • @greghall4560
      @greghall4560 2 หลายเดือนก่อน

      Father and brother live in Denver. Invaded by people from California who don’t like what has happened in CA; but they bring their politics to CO. Go figure…. And these are not the 20 year olds. Stupidity is alive in all age groups.

  • @GaltsG
    @GaltsG 2 หลายเดือนก่อน

    In what universe are wages up 20%?

  • @gabrielw7773
    @gabrielw7773 2 หลายเดือนก่อน +4

    At least the stock market isn't reliant on the economy. The stock market has a money printer the economy doesn't.

    • @solskengroupllp2758
      @solskengroupllp2758 2 หลายเดือนก่อน +2

      The stock market in no way reflects reality. Lance is so wrong about "wages have gone up". My spouses energy company hasn't given raises in years, despite record profits and excellent reviews.

    • @bpb5541
      @bpb5541 2 หลายเดือนก่อน +1

      The stock market going up... day after day after day ... is an indication of inflation. When inflation is going up... assets go up. It means there is still too much money in the system. Too few (pick somthing stocks, bonds, houses) goods being chased by too much money. While recently the stock market and economy (macro to be specific) have diverged, the economy always wins in the end. This cycle is just taking much longer because of the trillions and trillions of money that has been and is still be injected into the system. Which means as it keeps going up the bubble keeps getting bigger. At some point the bubble pops, when that day comes I feel bad for folks that have no idea what risk / money managment and stop loss order are. I think that is right around the corner.

    • @gabrielw7773
      @gabrielw7773 2 หลายเดือนก่อน

      @@bpb5541 Inflation only occurs when printed money is accessed by main street which creates a growing, hot economy, not just when the stock market is going up. Inflation was fine until they printed money, gave it to main street and shut down the economy at the same time. Before the stock market was going up with no inflation. So a stock market going up doesn't create inflation. The inflation was created when they gave free money to the public while shutting off production. QE was non inflationary because it wasn't productive to growing the economy.

    • @bpb5541
      @bpb5541 2 หลายเดือนก่อน

      @@gabrielw7773 May I recommend you read the book "broken money". You are only seeing one thing... there are lots of things that can cause inflation. Such as supply disruptions, manufacturing disruptions, transport prices, energy prices, money flows, etc etc etc. To say that inflation just went up because money flowed to Main Street is not the whole story. I agree it contributed, to that there is no doubt but there were lots more reasons. Regardless, folks love a good stock market rally and their bias keep them beleiving it can go on forever. And while the market has shown to steadily go up over long periods of time, there are periods where we get massive corrections. This is fine if you are 20 or 30 years old. If you are 40 or 50 you will not have enough time to make this up and could have to work until the day you die. My comment on the stock market just going up and up and up is an indication that there is too much money in they system... regardless of how has it. It don't matter if it retail traders, or hedge funds. The reality of it is there is a crap ton of money chasing yields. This has caused a massive bubble. The bubble of all bubbles in all things. Bubble pop. I think we stay long until we signal to get flat and then to possibly short. FYI I use a 4 hour chart with a 20 and 40 simple moving average. How price is acting in relation to those .. with a few other things .. tell me what to do. I could care less of why or what or any of that. I follow price and while price is important Macro (the economy) always wins always. IMHO it is a bit overheated with debt crazy high and interest rates still too low. We are still dealing with inflation. It is still going up, just not as fast. What we really need is a deflationary period. Folks, especially folks with money and assets do not want to hear this. In deflationary times assets depreciate. For those without a lot of assets this is exactly what they want with the caveat that unemployment must go way up. To your point, get the economy to cool off. I think we are in a very bad place right here, and I also think that there is no go way out of this, and when the biggest bubble in all things pops a whole bunch of people get wiped out. Folks have no idea what risk / money managment is, they have no idea what a stop loss order is or what got them in or gets them out. The are set it and forget it ... long term just keep buying folks. That scares me. Not for me, I am ready whichever way the market wants to go... but a crash is when I can make money 3 times as fast ... as fear is the greater emotion over greed. I would say without a doubt folks are crazy greedy right now. And if I can steal from Buffet... sell when folks are greedy and buy when they are fearful. Last thing. Most high fliers are showing negative divergances. Meaning price is going higher but RSI and MACD are both making lower lows. The shows that the steam is running out. Please be careful. It is just as important to know when to sell as it is when you buy. Folks are complacent ... and this is one of the main indicators that we are close to a top.

  • @dabarkster
    @dabarkster 2 หลายเดือนก่อน +2

    Mahalo Adam and Mike! I enjoy both Mike and Lance.

    • @Jalleur14325
      @Jalleur14325 2 หลายเดือนก่อน

      Yes. I love Lance. He has good energy,but Michael is good too n

  • @icecoldporksoda3461
    @icecoldporksoda3461 2 หลายเดือนก่อน +4

    Five guys is literally the most expensive fast food chain

    • @tactileslut
      @tactileslut 2 หลายเดือนก่อน

      Raising Cane's is pretty high too.

    • @kenr0966
      @kenr0966 2 หลายเดือนก่อน

      five guys 10.75 for a double bacon burger 7.00 for large fries. 5.50. milkshake

  • @joycekoch5746
    @joycekoch5746 2 หลายเดือนก่อน +3

    But, but,but,but....but.but...however, but...on the other hand.

  • @CowPokeCash
    @CowPokeCash 2 หลายเดือนก่อน +2

    No one talks about the Canadian railroad system being shutdown.
    Nothing is moving with no solution, about a 1 billion a day in losses.
    I would think that could shut down the ports and affect the economy.

    • @DaLem-q7w
      @DaLem-q7w 2 หลายเดือนก่อน +1

      I think the gov force arbitrage.

    • @SomeUserNameBlahBlah
      @SomeUserNameBlahBlah 2 หลายเดือนก่อน

      Government took care of that already.

    • @bpb5541
      @bpb5541 2 หลายเดือนก่อน

      As an American ... I feel for our Northern neighbors. Two things that matter a whole lot is energy (oil / nat gas) and transports. If you don't have those two things nothing is moving. Nothing moving means less to be had... scarcity, which of course is inflationary. This is true textbook of supply disruption caused by infaltion ... its a self licking ice cream cone.

  • @RenfieldJones
    @RenfieldJones 2 หลายเดือนก่อน +42

    Whoever thought this market will continue upwards and beyond has their head in their rear. There is a correction coming since the Russell and the Dow are showing signs of weakness. Depending on the correction may determine if the market rallies once more in the summer for a final blow off top and slightly newer high. After that, watch out. Cycle Analysis predicts a hard drop in the late summer early Fall. Also, we are now 190% Market Cap to GDP ratio. That is very extreme......currently I've been engaged in active trading, which is generally safer, allowing investors to weather market volatility and also managed to grow a nest egg of around 2.3Bitcoin to a decent 24Bitcoin....I'm especially grateful to Adriana Jensen, whose deep expertise and traditional trading acumen have been invaluable in this challenging, ever-evolving financial landscape.

    • @ErikaOrenday-k4d
      @ErikaOrenday-k4d 2 หลายเดือนก่อน

      Access to good information is what we investors needs to progress financially and generally in life. this is a good one and I appreciate

    • @BenHardyy
      @BenHardyy 2 หลายเดือนก่อน

      This is why it is advisable to connect with a true market strategist in order to avoid missing such opportunity and maintain steady gains.

    • @ScottHerzog-S.r
      @ScottHerzog-S.r 2 หลายเดือนก่อน

      The internet is filled. with so many useful information. about Adriana Jensen.

    • @RobertoArienzo-b6e
      @RobertoArienzo-b6e 2 หลายเดือนก่อน

      She appears to be well-educated and well-read. I ran a Google search on her name and came across her website; thank you for sharing...

    • @ChrisBickley528
      @ChrisBickley528 2 หลายเดือนก่อน

      It really helped trading with Adriana Jensen analysis and info, even with the market in a downward trend. Definitely riding the market wave is a good perspective..

  • @gussoldtimeradioshows4902
    @gussoldtimeradioshows4902 2 หลายเดือนก่อน

    Whos wages went up 20%. My grocery bill, home owners insurance, car insurance, health insurance, energy.....I'm paying 40%more across the board. Approximately, $1850 a month more. Your pants are on fire