Seminario Junior UC3M - Sticking to one's guns: Mass shootings and the political economy of [...]

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HASIN YOUSAF (UC3M)
Mass shootings are unfortunately frequent events which keep drawing public attention towards gun policy. The divide on gun policy among Republicans and Democrats has increased both among voters and politicians. However, we know very little about mass shootings and its effects. In this talk I analyze their impact on electoral outcomes, voter preferences, and gun policy. Using a Difference-in-Difference strategy, I find that Republicans lose significant votes in all federal elections after mass shootings. Variations of identification strategy, placebo and falsification exercises suggest that this decline reflects a causal impact of mass shootings. Moreover, mass shootings do not change the average preferred gun policy among the electorate, but rather impact the electoral outcomes through an increase in the importance of gun policy among voters. The lack of change in the average preferred policy masks the increase in the polarization between Republicans and Democrats. Mass shootings lead to an even greater disagreement on gun policy among voters. Likewise, politicians from both parties shift to more diverging stances on gun policy.