Overall impact of China's potential chip ban won't be that big, says Bernstein's Stacy Rasgon
ฝัง
- เผยแพร่เมื่อ 20 ก.ย. 2024
- Stacy Rasgon, Bernstein semiconductor analyst, joins 'Power Lunch' to discuss why Rasgon has kept his forecasts the same for Intel and AMD, whether the potential chip ban could escalate trade tensions, and more.
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When US ban & block these and that is national security. When China ban a little piece of US product, US media call escalation trade war 😂😂😂
Not small pieces, all social media banned
@@kenyup7936China didn’t ban any US social media. They refuse to keep the data in China -china data protection law and decided to leave china. TikTok is also required to keep US data in US - in Oracle according to US data protection law.
@@whatyousaid1375if it wasn’t ban why we can’t access them without VPN?
@@kenyup7936 do you consider overseas content on Netflix banned, since we can't access them without a VPN?
Lol, as a Chinese, I laugh at the governement propaganda you are pushing. Of course China bans most western social media and news, every Chinese knows this fact.
For years, China relied on buying chips from the US, using money from selling cheap goods to Americans. But now, with US politicians ban chip exports, China is rethinking its strategy. This pressure is driving China to boost its own technology. China may soon appreciate the US for catalyzing this shift, as it's prompting China to enhance its tech and upgrade production-a move it hadn't deemed necessary in its staunch belief in the "free market".
For years, US relied on buying cheap comodaties from China,using moeny from s
arming taiwan....
i find your sense of misplaced optimism extremely comical
@@Kevin-fq3zhHe just stated a fact; it's not about optimism. If we're talking about optimism, I think you will spend the rest of your life trapped in fear and hatred of China, unable to extricate yourself.
@@edwardchen9920 facts? he just expressed an opinion which anyone is free to disagree with. China’s biggest fear is decoupling because China still relies on the West for high end technologies like MRI machines, precision instruments & industrial software. And this is something your own industry leaders said so as reported in Caixin & Yicai…. 醒醒吧
@@Kevin-fq3zh I don’t know what to say about you; as long as you are happy, that’s OK. Among thousands and thousands of reports, you can choose only what you like to read, but of course, your understanding will stay there and cannot improve. Living in one's own imagination is also a way of survival.
US Ambassador to China said “we will not live in a world in which China is the dominant power”. 😢
Chinese spokesman:
Countries, big or small, rich or poor, are all equal members of the international community. China will not dominate the world, nor does it believe that the world should be dominated by anyone.
China has no intention to surpass the United States, but to be a better version of itself so that the Chinese people can live a better life.
First World Country with Third World mindset. He must be dreaming.
China is a dictatorship, plus China wants to destroy the West and bully its neighbors.
yeah, keep telling yourself that. China’s actions prove otherwise
@@Kevin-fq3zhHe is enlightening you; otherwise, why would you respond? Fool.
the point is
wests want to dominate the world
china want balance
The last breath of a dying empire.
I'm actually confused because I sincerely can't tell who you are referring to.
@@mniay why the US of course
The USA had to borrow 2 trillion a year to prop up its economy
China trade surplus with the world is over 820 billion a year
@@amunra5330 Ok, you've clearly revealed your anti-American bias.
@@loremasteringwion9930 the world is already blessed if the american are not anti-this anti-that and apply sanction to whoever not with them
It is very obviously that the Chinese is looking for a way to stop reliance on American chips. No one should doubt the intention. It might take a while for the government agencies to use the Chinese chips and iron out the obvious issues. Then the general public would probably follow suit soon, given the clear cost advantage of home-grown chips. There isn't much consumer market for high-performance, blooding-edge processors anyway. Home-grown chips will do fine for 95% of the use cases. Make no mistake, Intel and AMD need to think about how their CPU businesses survive without the Chinese market. Since the American public has already reached this consensus of inhibiting the Chinese tech development, American high-tech companies should prepare for operating without the Chinese market. Somehow, the world gets into this confrontational and hostile situation, that is a clear trend in the foreseeable future. There is an old Chinese saying, "Harmony creates and grows wealth." I think there is quite a bit wisdom in it. So Americans don't care about harmony, and are very sure of winning this trade war, then at least for the short-term, they should prepare for losing quite a bit of wealth.
But the problem is which are the replacements, our govt did this before back then some years ago, it didn’t work, it just their aggressive rhetorical, it ended up with failed, we still using intel and AMD as well, big enterprise companies still use oracle database so on
@@kenyup7936Time is different now that the Chinese can make 7nm chips and better. The Chinese has the x86 and Arm alternatives, and the desktop OS from Huawei as well. There will be initial transition issues, but once those government agencies work out some flows, the momentum will get going to a bigger scale. It is the same story with database. All the big Chinese companies, Alibaba, Tencent, Huawei have good in-house alternatives. Given the right moment, which could be now, I don't see why the Chinese government wouldn't start to phase out the foreign databases, using national security as an excuse, just like Americans do.
@@greatdancerI don’t think our ppl accept that kinda things , 😂 let me prepare the popcorn 😂
Might be a global national issue. Who's to say America won't try to make other countries reliant and then suddenly block exports
I should have liked it but saying Americans are winning? No, you are losing. China and its allies can benefit high-tech products at low prices than offered in the West.
Dude, you banned advanced chips export to China, now you complain? 😂
China has been banning companies like youtube and google from operating in China. Now they complain about tiktok being banned in the US. 😂 😂
China has been banning companies like youtube and google from operating in China. Now they complain about tiktok being banned in the US. 😂 😂
@@nntflow7058 where is the law in China that says it bans Google? Cite me that law please ❤
@@darthvadeth6290 😂 I love delusional people who forgot that people could use google outside of China.
@@nntflow7058 I love lying people who make claims like "Google is banned in China" that they cannot prove 😂😂
The sanction will force the Chinese to create their own chips as always.
if your rhetorical for politics yes, but if its for economy and for practical usage I dont think our country is able to build a competitive CPU. no way
@@kenyup7936😂😂😂
China's Lenovo is the number 1 PC maker in the world. Are you even Chinese?
Already did, it's about ecosystem, and this is how you create ecosystem.
Nobody said China can’t make their own chips. But It will take china atleast 20-30 years to even catch up to today’s chips. By the time they catch up we will have even better chips. Having advanced chips is literally what is keeping Taiwan alive. Because the US wants to have advanced chips. And will go to war to have them
@@vegamoonlightso you didn’t answer my question, what are the replacement? Lenovo don’t production CPUs itself
My prediction is that come 2028 the world will have tired and moved on past this ruckus ….china will be having and probably using their own chips and the US will be still trying to stop them from growing but when the world has allowed that china will grow bigger and bigger for the betterment of the world
no way, in 2028 the prediction will be our tech obsolete with days in China
China better stop being assholes in the South China Sea first
Embarrassing take as China leads the world in 37 of 44 critical technologies of the future
But let’s focus on 1 sector which the Chinese are behind but fast catching up
Research experts at Canalys report that Dell was the biggest loser in last year's Chinese PC hardware sales with a 44% fall
2024, mark the first year of Apple’s decline?
iPhone shipments in China fell 33% year-on-year last month.
iPhone shipments in the Chinese market have declined for the second consecutive month.
Total iPhone shipments in January were approximately 5.5 million units, a decrease of approximately 39% from the same period last year.
China need to de-risk from Iphone(with C"1""A backdoor) also
We shall see. Other countries will follow China using computers and servers without American chips. When China announces something, there is always a plan. Quantum chip, and etc could be coming soon. lol
When pigs fly and cat talk
@@LanNguyen-vd4ztwhen viets can fly and talk like pigs and cats instead of an uncle tom. 😂😂😂
China is the biggest chip importer in the world as they advance in a chip manufacturing that mean less that countries are exporting to China
When that expert failed to regard Huawei saying China does not have a leader. But SMIC exists and also Huawei that NVidia considers a serious competition.😂😂😂
Good for consumers too, phone and computer prices will fall. Also in the near future they might get computers without Microsoft or intel.
AMD will never break $200 and most likely drop back to about $125.
Americans only know the words 'winning competition'. They don't want to know the words 'losing competition'.
When they lose they immediately become the referee. For them sportmanship is nonsense.
😂😂😂😂 I am a 60 year old African woman with no skin in anybodys game. I merely observe the world and make my own conclusions. let me understand this argument. The decision by the Chinese Government means nothing to Intel and AMD because Chinese Government usage is minimal and China has "no leadership" in this area. Also to paraphrase "Huawei is using tech that isn't so great let's see where they can get " 😂😂😂
Does nobody in the USA remember the Chinese proverb which states " A journey of a thousand miles begins with a single step " ? China reformed it's economy in 1978 and built it's economy based on export relations ie becoming the factory of the world based on cheap labour. In the 1990's Foreign Direct Investment surged in special economic zones and cities as Western companies divested from their own economies due to high labour costs and labour regulation among other issues. They were driven by philosphies and successes of the likes of Jack Welch and others. Along with this came technology and management skills as well as uplifting the population out of poverty. If I remember well western industry welcomed the ability to produce goods in a market where they were being welcomed. Labour was cheap and labour laws less stringent. At the time the world was also increasingly opening up to free and fair economic activity ( where everyone has free access to resources of production and free access to markets as demonstrated by the development of economic blocs like the EU. However in economics while and export led strategy has its positive points it also comes with its own risks that a country cannot control. Fast forward China has successfully pivoted to growing domestic demand order to deal with thise risks. This is on the back of its huge population that they managed to lift from poverty to middle income consumers in a matter of decades using an export strategy. Western giants of industry jumped into the Chinese market for production to minimise their costs. They also obviously banked on the presumption that they could sell their products to the growing Chinese market based on the idea of the strength of their brands and perceived technological advantage. Unfortunately they are wrong. Just look at what is happening with electric cars. China is the clear leader and yet they sell mainly in China. Their electric cars cost a fraction of the likes of Tesler and are performing comparably if not better. The ASEAN region is now buying from them. China is getting better and becoming a leader. On another note just check youtube videos about Huawei products. They arent perfect but they deliver despite the sanction. Back to our discussion. Let's accept the facts. Sanctioning China and denying them access to technology will not stop their progress. Doing that is about a short term vision means a journey of a thousand steps. China is on a journey of a thousand miles not a journey of a thousand steps History is proving that not only will they rebound and catch up, they will become leaders. The rest of is watching...
China is only the beginning
So what exactly is your position? Do you want to gain access, OR block the supply to China’s market??
Can you do both at the SAME time?
They also scream their government doesn't help them at the same time calling everything they are offered socialist and veto it! :P
We China didn't ban chips, just ban them in devices of goverment owned, even not in all devices.
For us, we will still use Intem and AMD
This guy is trying so hard to say banning AMD and Intel dont matter to America, but his argument is so weak, almost tantamount to sweeping under the rug and pretending all is well and dandy. Haha, go on and hope everything is rosy. He's rattling on desperation.
That is typical American .. don't want to admit they're losing the battle and keep bad-mouthing China. America is supposed to work together with China instead of hating China. What a Loser !
One more that will bring hell to them is when China start to compete them in international market.
This is where the US is a clear winner and a forerunner as well. USA has decoupled (or de-risked) from China for quite some time now. Now China is doing exactly the same on American products and services. So, please don't complain.
relax American , we Chinese are de-risking for national security as well. Its just 1.4B market you are losing , relax , you can go find India to replace us , hahahah
Actually we are planning to do the same when they sanction Russia.
Arm chip can replace intel
Intel stocks falling by almost 30% today. Sales and earnings missed Wall Street's expectations. At the same time, slashing 15,000 jobs globally. Yes, chip ban is that BIG.
Why the West worried for China when they told you they only want to use calculators, not PCs. Let them use calculators.
😂😂😂😂
But China's Lenovo is the #1 PC maker in the world.
Because China is the only country using computers, said analysts 😂
most of the computer work can be done with a Chromebook. Which is basically a dressed-up calculator.
Welldone
Right, just like what Micron said when it got banned in China.
He is downplaying things quite a bit. Maybe he is correct, but the implications could be large especially if other Chinese companies start to feel that they should align their purchases in a similar way.
Though China is innovating more strongly than the US and faster moving generally, I think the US will hold out for longer than some think. Long term - yes, China will be technologically a lot stronger than the US, however I still think the US will hold out for a few more years, before they significantly fall behind.
these analysts are quite funny, making one bad call after another, yet kept on chugging along 😂😂😂. China is an ecosystem. If they ban intel, there will be ramifications in the whole supply chain.
Government computers only or all of China? And if so, what type of CPU do you want to install?
Absolutely only the govt , our govt tried to replace American tech companies before some years ago, but ended up with failed, ppl still use intel and AMD as well, big companies still use oracle database so on
Chinese companies have X86 licenses. Also Loongsan cpu.
For servers they have RISV chips.
One obstacle is chip mfg where SMIC is restricted.
Govt can later forced Chinese ppl to use non Intel, AMD systems to do govt online services.
@@pohmoh3590 did you see our PCs and our servers use Loogsan CPU? lol
@@kenyup7936You forgot Obama banned Intel chips for Chinese supercomputers, and China switched to domestic RISC-V chips and now still holds the lead in supercomputing.
The government and state-owned enterprises are promoting de-Americanization. You can take a look at the recent bidding content of state-owned enterprises and governments. For example, China Mobile. Only 1/3 of the servers recently purchased are American CPUs, while the PCs used for office use are all going to the United States. However, if the Communist Party is confident in saying it, it will definitely be done.
Very silly for this man to view phasing out of US chip in chinese telco operator as retaliation of trade war. This is a strategic move!
This is what US wish for so don't be surprised
Overall sanctions are failed.
The soon-to-be released Huawei Mate X6 is expected to feature a new Kirin 10K chip, made at Huawei’s own facilities using the 5nm technology.
If everything turns out this way, it means that Huawei has mastered the serial 5nm in less than a year (a mass mobile phone on a 7nm chip was released last fall).
Ah how nice! So China is strengthening domestic industry at little cost to US companies. Nice positive story. No chance this gets blown out of proportion.
Such a small ban could drive US crazy?
Chinese companies have X86 licenses. Also Loongsan cpu.
For servers they have RISV chips.
One obstacle is chip mfg where SMIC is restricted.
Govt can later forced Chinese ppl to use non Intel, AMD systems to do govt online services.
our chips are joke actually, i DIDN'T SEE ANY case for our chips usage scenarios in China yet
Just stop buying from each other... DAMN IT!! 😆
Good, China just used the Uno reverse card
Yes, take it easy,no big deal,relaxed.
NOTHING IS BEARISH, scream it out loud baby!
Only the future will reveal who is the winner: China or USA.
Place all your bets!
You can't be serious. That race is over, China won. We're playing catch up in most fields and this chip bs is out last bastion. Even our planes will be rejected..our EVs too. Capitalism can't compete without capitalists and capital.
Today brought me here…
Tell them to Intel and AMD.
Please Mr Xi, ban Intel but not AMD chips.
Not that big . china population 1.4Bn US 300 Million
Completely agree
Intel now is weapon manufacturing vendor
yeah, everything is not that big in US, even it is collapsing
Are PC chips becoming obsolete? High powered mobile chips can do more now than in the past.
They said exactly the same thing when China basically banned Boeing.
China “banned Boeing”? I didn’t know that but they should be concerned with the quality of their aircrafts
@@billinsf88 Last year, China ordered 175 Airbus, 0 Boeing. The year before last year, 300 Airbus, 0 Boeing. Its ypical Chinese style, we won't tell you that we have banned you, so if you want to talk, maybe I will continue purchases. But right now, they aren't really talking to each other. If this continues for 10 years, 20 years, how much money will it cost? There will be more and more defects in Boeing, like doors flying away in the air. because when they earn less, they cut corners. You will be concerned.
@@billinsf88 Its typical Chinese style, we won't tell you that we banned you, so if you want to talk, maybe I will continue purchases. But right now they aren't really talked to each other.
@@billinsf88There's a company called airbus you know?
@@RangKlos and?
Jai Hinduja. Why don't just ban Intel and AMD chips for Chinese military?
An arrogant bully and a clever thief
stacey's PT on AMD is like $145....
Your level of fear increases as you bark louder. 🤣🤣🤣
lies as always
The devil rebukes sin······
it just warning related to tick-tock.
Has This Market Changed. What Future Market Is Forwarding ! That Has Been Important Than Any Thing Else. In Such Instance , As An Investor , You Must Ask YourSelf This Realistic Question : Where Are We Hitting On Chips 💚💚💚And What Are The Important Chips As U.S. 🇺🇸 Economy Forwards. Welcome To 2024 , A Different Look At Future Market Where Innovation Structure And Market Leading Takes Place Once Again. Sincerely❤️❤️❤️, KNT.
Now that is 😂😂😂😂😂🎉
Don’t worry, I believe it’s really small portions of products , and I don’t think we have a better replacement, we dont have something else option actually, can you figure out what products can replace intel and AMD as well?
A Chromebook based on ARM cpu for the usual office tasks?
@@FengChengNanEr-o7qChromebook actually unavailable in china
the purpose is actually to de-risk,, who knows when the us gov stops supplying suddenly in the future?
g😊
Chinese horse and carriage beats an automobile any day…
lol
@CNBC Television
World is USA? game just started....makes my day when ANYTHING US of A banned
美債產能過剩!?
Best decision