Eric does a fantastic job of detailing how certain economic models explain the past. However, as he implies here the by-products of COVID are disrupting his curves to the extent he can no longer project how they will overlap in the future. In five years he'll do a great job explaining how he was wrong.😊
As an investment enthusiast, I often wonder how top level investors are able to become millionaires off investing. I do have a significant amount of capital that is required to start up but I have no idea what strategies and direction I need to approach to help me make over $400k like some people are this season.
I think it's not always about fear, Sometimes realistic factors discourage people from reaching their goals in life. For instance, I've tried investing in the stock market several times but always got discouraged by fluctuations of stock value
The best course of action if you lack market knowledge is to ask a consultant or investing coach for guidance or assistance. Speaking with a consultant helped me stay afloat in the market and grow my portfolio to about 65% since January, even though I know it sounds obvious or generic. I believe that is the most effective way to enter the business at the moment.
'Carol Vivian Constable, a highly respected figure in her field. I suggest delving deeper into her credentials, as she possesses extensive experience and serves as a valuable resource for individuals seeking guidance in navigating the financial market.
Our economy struggling with uncertainties, housing issues, foreclosures, global fluctuations, and pandemic aftermath, causing instability. Rising inflation, sluggish growth, and trade disruptions need urgent attention from all sectors to restore stability and stimulate growth.
In particular, amid inflation, investors should exercise caution when it comes to their exposure and new purchases. It is only feasible to get such high yields during a recession with the guidance of a qualified specialist or reliable counsel.
True, initially I wasn't quite impressed with my gains, opposed to my previous performances, I was doing so badly, figured I needed to diverssify into better assets, I touched base with a portfolio-advisor and that same year, I pulled a net gain of $250k...that's like 7times more than I average on my own.
Annette Marie Holt is the licensed fiduciary I use. Just research the name. You’d find necessary details to work with a correspondence to set up an appointment..
Good methodology of breaking down numbers to the four different sets that roll through for completion of an economic cycle. Forecasts are always error prone but seems like a good framework for isolating where we are currently are in the cycle.
I listened to way too many bears through the years and missed it all. Now I invested 50% of my money and 50% in cash. Whatever happens is the best strategy now.
The whole video is about the fact that the recession should have started in 2022, but was postponed because of the back-order situation. The exceptional nature of the situation doesn't mean he's wrong or that there won't be a recession, just that it's been postponed. It is definitely coming. In my region, new construction projects are down 30% on the previous year.
Dude also said a recession is imminent last June. Almost 17 months ago. You will notice that their previous inaccurate calls, emphasis on the plural there, are rarely brought up in these interviews with plenty of time to do such.
Please inform your guest to use a BOLD font on his presentations next time. I couldn't even read some things on my phone at 1080p. Loved hearing his thoughts on cyclical markets though. Thank you for another great show!
This is a very interesting model for analysing the economic cycle. Straight forward and well thought out. What it tells me is the lag between leading and coincident/aggregate indicators is unusually wide and thus it's worth exploring why. My assumption is that fiscal largesse is propping it all up. If I'm right then the next stage is to understand the likely short and long term consequences to this. Can a government really get away with it or has this typically only prolonged, and even exaggerated, the inevitable.
“What the Fed is doing now is probably best described as a “wait and hope” strategy. The Fed is refusing to allow interest rates to rise, but the Fed isn’t lowering the target rate either. Rather, it appears the Fed is holding the target rate steady just hoping that something will happen to bring Treasury yields back down without the Fed having to print more money to buy more Treasuries and risking a new, politically damaging surge in price inflation. “Hoping” is not much of a strategy, however, and the likely outcome is that the Fed will err on the side of keeping interest rates low so the regime can borrow more money. This will mean more price inflation for ordinary people.”
“In spite of last year’s sizable drops in total money supply, the trend in money-supply remains well above what existed during the twenty-year period from 1989 to 2009. To return to this trend, the money supply would have to drop another $3 trillion or so-or 15 percent-down to a total below $15 trillion. Moreover, as of March, total money supply was still up more than 30 percent (or about $4.5 trillion) since January 2020.”
If TMS growth since 2009 is annualized it is 12%. That is twice the growth rate necessary to create 2% inflation according to the Quantity Theory of Money.
Given the current economic difficulties that the country is experiencing in 2024, how can we enhance our earnings during this period of adjustment? I cannot let my $680,000 savings vanish after putting in so much effort to accumulate them.
Keeping some gold is usually a wise decision. You would be better off keeping away from equities for a bit or, even better, seeking advice from an expert given the current market conditions and everything that is at risk with the current economy.
You have a very valid point, I started investing on my own and for a long time, the market was really ripping me off. I decided to hire a CFA, even though I was skeptical at first, and I beat the market by more than 9%. I thought it was a fluke until it happened two years in a row, and so I’ve been sticking to investing via an analyst
M2 contracted between 2022 and now. M2 still remains below January 2022 and barely growing. “Some say that there is a close relationship between the timing of business cycle peaks and significant monetary decelerations. This means that when the money supply falls below its maximum 24-month growth trend by 3 to 4 percent, a recession may occur.” Increased money supply results in increased inflation, while interest rates follow inflation.
Basmajian is yet another guy who has been calling for a severe correction or even a recession, since early 2022. This presentation is little more than reading bones like a fortune teller
“Since 2009, the TMS money supply is now up by more than 185 percent. (M2 has grown by 145 percent in that period.) Out of the current money supply of $19 trillion, $4.6 trillion-or 24 percent-of that has been created since January 2020. Since 2009, more than $12 trillion of the current money supply has been created. In other words, nearly two-thirds of the total existing money supply have been created just in the past thirteen years.”
If his analysis of auto sales staying very low for a while will add to the negative sentiment for new and used auto sales revenue driven stocks as consumer defaults on auto loans / repossessions keep rising. I expect overhyped / overpriced stocks like CVNA to take a big hit soon.
Very nice job covering the basics. I am sharing this not to brag but to show what’s possible. I’m retired and I have 2 separate portfolios. One is a long term growth dividend portfolio of stocks where i sell covered calls strategically and my 2nd portfolio is the Crypto trading strategy where its all about income. This year I am on pace to make $120K in realized options profits and around $730K in crypto profit... What is great is that my long-term portfolio is still up significantly as well. As such, it’s possible to generate excellent income but still have a total return perspective. ...Amidst this, the insights of a knowledgeable guide like that of Sandy Barclays can be crucial. Her expertise in navigating the nuances of trading has been the key for Me understanding and making the most of these emerging financial trends.
Over the years, I've been a part of numerous trading programs, sifting through a barrage of information. Yet, nothing has come close to the sheer clarity, depth, and precision of Sandy insights. It's akin to finding a diamond in a coal mine.
Same here., I strongly agree that the Bitcoin ETFs approval will be greatly life opportunity for us, with my current portfolio of $102,500 from my investments with my personal financial advisor Steve Miley I totally agree with you😊
YES!!! That's exactly his name (Steve Miley) so many people have recommended highly about him and am just starting with him from Brisbane Australia...🇦🇺
I have a family member that by the skin of her teeth, bought a home. A few months later she bought a new Toyota. Highest interest rate and longest loan time possible. She can't afford to eat and the family is helping out. Car sales aren't a good indicator when they are funded with risky loans. At some point she may have to decide to live in the car or live in the house.
Just for context, Eric has been calling the recession for 2 years, always using the same reasons: "slowing aggregate demand", "end of business cycle", "lagging effects of interest rates", etc. The market has proven him wrong time and time again, yet he wouldnt adapt his analysis. Why the stubborn perman-bearness?
!!I recently sold some of my long-term position and currently sitting on about 250k, do you think Nvidia is a good buy right now or I have I missed out on a crucial buy period, any good stock recommendation on great performing stocks or Crypto will be appreciated.
As a beginner investor, it’s essential for you to have a mentor to keep you accountable. Ruth Ann Tsakonas is my trade analyst, she has guided me to identify key market trends, pinpointed strategic entry points, and provided risk assessments, ensuring my trades decisions align with market dynamics for optimal returns.
I managed to grow a nest egg of around 120k to over a Million. I'm especially grateful to Adviser Ruth Ann Tsakonas, for her expertise and exposure to different areas of the market.
I don't really blame people who panic. Lack of information can be a big hurdle. I've been making more than $100k passively by just investing through an advisor, and I don't have to do much work.. Inflation or no inflation, my finances remain secure. So I really don't blame people who panic.
Without a doubt! Ruth Ann Tsakonas is a trader who goes above and beyond. she has an exceptional skill for analyzing market movements and spotting profitable opportunities. Her strategies are meticulously crafted based on thorough research and years of practical experience.
Eric does a fantastic job of detailing how certain economic models explain the past. However, as he implies here the by-products of COVID are disrupting his curves to the extent he can no longer project how they will overlap in the future. In five years he'll do a great job explaining how he was wrong.😊
As an investment enthusiast, I often wonder how top level investors are able to become millionaires off investing. I do have a significant amount of capital that is required to start up but I have no idea what strategies and direction I need to approach to help me make over $400k like some people are this season.
I think it's not always about fear, Sometimes realistic factors discourage people from reaching their goals in life. For instance, I've tried investing in the stock market several times but always got discouraged by fluctuations of stock value
The best course of action if you lack market knowledge is to ask a consultant or investing coach for guidance or assistance. Speaking with a consultant helped me stay afloat in the market and grow my portfolio to about 65% since January, even though I know it sounds obvious or generic. I believe that is the most effective way to enter the business at the moment.
please who is the consultant that assist you with your investment and if you don't mind, how do I get in touch with them?
'Carol Vivian Constable, a highly respected figure in her field. I suggest delving deeper into her credentials, as she possesses extensive experience and serves as a valuable resource for individuals seeking guidance in navigating the financial market.
She appears to be well-educated and well-read. I ran an online search on her name and came across her website; thank you for sharing.
Am I the only person who's going to bring up that shirt choice? #MoireEffect
Our economy struggling with uncertainties, housing issues, foreclosures, global fluctuations, and pandemic aftermath, causing instability. Rising inflation, sluggish growth, and trade disruptions need urgent attention from all sectors to restore stability and stimulate growth.
In particular, amid inflation, investors should exercise caution when it comes to their exposure and new purchases. It is only feasible to get such high yields during a recession with the guidance of a qualified specialist or reliable counsel.
True, initially I wasn't quite impressed with my gains, opposed to my previous performances, I was doing so badly, figured I needed to diverssify into better assets, I touched base with a portfolio-advisor and that same year, I pulled a net gain of $250k...that's like 7times more than I average on my own.
@@hasede-lg9hj This aligns perfectly with my desire to organize my finances prior to retirement. Could you provide me with access to your advisor?
This aligns perfectly with my desire to organize my finances prior to retirement. Could you provide me with access to your advisor?
Annette Marie Holt is the licensed fiduciary I use. Just research the name. You’d find necessary details to work with a correspondence to set up an appointment..
Eric is fantastic. Please have him on show with regular updates.
Good methodology of breaking down numbers to the four different sets that roll through for completion of an economic cycle.
Forecasts are always error prone but seems like a good framework for isolating where we are currently are in the cycle.
I listened to way too many bears through the years and missed it all.
Now I invested 50% of my money and 50% in cash. Whatever happens is the best strategy now.
50% cash? You're still a BEAR
Excellent discussion.
What a bear. Been preaching this since 2022
Grrrrr 🐻
Uhh who hasn't been since even 2018??? Smh
The whole video is about the fact that the recession should have started in 2022, but was postponed because of the back-order situation. The exceptional nature of the situation doesn't mean he's wrong or that there won't be a recession, just that it's been postponed. It is definitely coming. In my region, new construction projects are down 30% on the previous year.
Great job, guys. Thanks again
Dude also said a recession is imminent last June. Almost 17 months ago.
You will notice that their previous inaccurate calls, emphasis on the plural there, are rarely brought up in these interviews with plenty of time to do such.
Listeners should really familiarize themselves with the story of the boy who cried wolf.
@mikesmevog7146 The wolf showed up at the end of the story
Please inform your guest to use a BOLD font on his presentations next time. I couldn't even read some things on my phone at 1080p.
Loved hearing his thoughts on cyclical markets though. Thank you for another great show!
This is a very interesting model for analysing the economic cycle. Straight forward and well thought out.
What it tells me is the lag between leading and coincident/aggregate indicators is unusually wide and thus it's worth exploring why. My assumption is that fiscal largesse is propping it all up. If I'm right then the next stage is to understand the likely short and long term consequences to this. Can a government really get away with it or has this typically only prolonged, and even exaggerated, the inevitable.
Amazing
Gud thumbnail
Smart guy, interesting info about the economy, but not sure how to action this info. What the heck is he long/short?
You definitely need to go full screen when charts are displayed.
“What the Fed is doing now is probably best described as a “wait and hope” strategy. The Fed is refusing to allow interest rates to rise, but the Fed isn’t lowering the target rate either. Rather, it appears the Fed is holding the target rate steady just hoping that something will happen to bring Treasury yields back down without the Fed having to print more money to buy more Treasuries and risking a new, politically damaging surge in price inflation. “Hoping” is not much of a strategy, however, and the likely outcome is that the Fed will err on the side of keeping interest rates low so the regime can borrow more money. This will mean more price inflation for ordinary people.”
“In spite of last year’s sizable drops in total money supply, the trend in money-supply remains well above what existed during the twenty-year period from 1989 to 2009. To return to this trend, the money supply would have to drop another $3 trillion or so-or 15 percent-down to a total below $15 trillion. Moreover, as of March, total money supply was still up more than 30 percent (or about $4.5 trillion) since January 2020.”
If TMS growth since 2009 is annualized it is 12%. That is twice the growth rate necessary to create 2% inflation according to the Quantity Theory of Money.
Given the current economic difficulties that the country is experiencing in 2024, how can we enhance our earnings during this period of adjustment? I cannot let my $680,000 savings vanish after putting in so much effort to accumulate them.
Keeping some gold is usually a wise decision. You would be better off keeping away from equities for a bit or, even better, seeking advice from an expert given the current market conditions and everything that is at risk with the current economy.
You have a very valid point, I started investing on my own and for a long time, the market was really ripping me off. I decided to hire a CFA, even though I was skeptical at first, and I beat the market by more than 9%. I thought it was a fluke until it happened two years in a row, and so I’ve been sticking to investing via an analyst
Can you share details of your advisor? I want to invest my increased cash flow in stocks and alternative assets to achieve financial goals.
Her name is. SHARON CRUMP CLINE. Just research the name. You’d find necessary details to work with a correspondence to set up an appointment.
I just curiously searched her up, and I have sent her an email. I hope she gets back to me soon. Thank you
M2 contracted between 2022 and now. M2 still remains below January 2022 and barely growing. “Some say that there is a close relationship between the timing of business cycle peaks and significant monetary decelerations. This means that when the money supply falls below its maximum 24-month growth trend by 3 to 4 percent, a recession may occur.” Increased money supply results in increased inflation, while interest rates follow inflation.
Basmajian is yet another guy who has been calling for a severe correction or even a recession, since early 2022. This presentation is little more than reading bones like a fortune teller
“Since 2009, the TMS money supply is now up by more than 185 percent. (M2 has grown by 145 percent in that period.) Out of the current money supply of $19 trillion, $4.6 trillion-or 24 percent-of that has been created since January 2020. Since 2009, more than $12 trillion of the current money supply has been created. In other words, nearly two-thirds of the total existing money supply have been created just in the past thirteen years.”
Excellent guest and great questions/interview. Thank you
Great guest pick. EPB is the real deal.
People who are fully invested in the stock market lose a lot, if not all, of their money during downturns. The cyclical indicators are the key.
If his analysis of auto sales staying very low for a while will add to the negative sentiment for new and used auto sales revenue driven stocks as consumer defaults on auto loans / repossessions keep rising. I expect overhyped / overpriced stocks like CVNA to take a big hit soon.
Very nice job covering the basics. I am sharing this not to brag but to show what’s possible. I’m retired and I have 2 separate portfolios. One is a long term growth dividend portfolio of stocks where i sell covered calls strategically and my 2nd portfolio is the Crypto trading strategy where its all about income. This year I am on pace to make $120K in realized options profits and around $730K in crypto profit... What is great is that my long-term portfolio is still up significantly as well. As such, it’s possible to generate excellent income but still have a total return perspective. ...Amidst this, the insights of a knowledgeable guide like that of Sandy Barclays can be crucial. Her expertise in navigating the nuances of trading has been the key for Me understanding and making the most of these emerging financial trends.
She mostly interacts on Telegrams, using the user-name.
@SandyBarclays .
Over the years, I've been a part of numerous trading programs, sifting through a barrage of information. Yet, nothing has come close to the sheer clarity, depth, and precision of Sandy insights. It's akin to finding a diamond in a coal mine.
I appreciate the professionalism and dedication of the team behind Sandy’s trade signal service.
The current market gives opportunities to maximize returns, but in order to execute such strategy, you must be a skilled practitioner.
I'm favoured financially with Bitcoin ETFs approval, Thank you buddy.$28,600 weekly profit regardless of how bad it gets on the economy.
Same here., I strongly agree that the Bitcoin ETFs approval will be greatly life opportunity for us, with my current portfolio of $102,500 from my investments with my personal financial advisor Steve Miley I totally agree with you😊
YES!!! That's exactly his name (Steve Miley) so many people have recommended highly about him and am just starting with him from Brisbane Australia...🇦🇺
Steve Miley has really set the standard for others to follow, we love him in Canada🇨🇦as he has been really helpful and changed lots of life's
This sounds so good and i would like to be a party to this, is there any way i can speak with him?
He's mostly on Telegrams, using the user name.
Dude can talk 3 hours none stop with out saying anything 😁🤪
Thanks
I have a family member that by the skin of her teeth, bought a home. A few months later she bought a new Toyota. Highest interest rate and longest loan time possible. She can't afford to eat and the family is helping out. Car sales aren't a good indicator when they are funded with risky loans. At some point she may have to decide to live in the car or live in the house.
I have known this foe 30 years. But it is impossible to get the average person to.
how do they keep up with printing money in banks? sick reality
I wondered what happened to him. Hes still wrong.
Just for context, Eric has been calling the recession for 2 years, always using the same reasons: "slowing aggregate demand", "end of business cycle", "lagging effects of interest rates", etc. The market has proven him wrong time and time again, yet he wouldnt adapt his analysis. Why the stubborn perman-bearness?
!!I recently sold some of my long-term position and currently sitting on about 250k, do you think Nvidia is a good buy right now or I have I missed out on a crucial buy period, any good stock recommendation on great performing stocks or Crypto will be appreciated.
As a beginner investor, it’s essential for you to have a mentor to keep you accountable.
Ruth Ann Tsakonas is my trade analyst, she has guided me to identify key market trends, pinpointed strategic entry points, and provided risk assessments, ensuring my trades decisions align with market dynamics for optimal returns.
I managed to grow a nest egg of around 120k to over a Million. I'm especially grateful to Adviser Ruth Ann Tsakonas, for her expertise and exposure to different areas of the market.
I don't really blame people who panic. Lack of
information can be a big hurdle. I've been
making more than $100k passively by just
investing through an advisor, and I don't have
to do much work.. Inflation or no inflation, my
finances remain secure. So I really don't blame
people who panic.
Without a doubt! Ruth Ann Tsakonas is a trader who goes above and beyond. she has an exceptional skill for analyzing market movements and spotting profitable opportunities. Her strategies are meticulously crafted based on thorough research and years of practical experience.
nice! once you hit a big milestone, the next comes easier. How can i reach her, if you don't mind me asking?
Thanks