Poker Vlogger LexO Makes SUICIDAL Bluff
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- เผยแพร่เมื่อ 23 มิ.ย. 2022
- Poker vlogger LexO and Bart discuss a massive river bluff jam against an opponent with a strong line.
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You can really simplify this in the end: You can't justify a turn call by saying he'll call a shove even when an obvious draw comes in and then justify a bluff shove by saying you think he'll fold to a shove when the obvious draw misses. That defies all internal logic.
Great point
nice catch. I think it's a terrible fold by villain here.
100% correct. And with both trains of thought only true part of the time for part of villain's range, the turn is a fold and the river is a free showdown.
Really great point
@@shadowwarsshadypeople6299 I think the problem is that villain's flop raise is too thin. top two seems like a really good hand here but if you can't barrel off on this runout, why are you raising flop for value?
but yeah, check/folding on a river brick after raising flop and betting turn for value is bad
"without looking like a nit" 😄 we know you lexo
This was a great hand and discussion across all streets. Big river bluffs as an exploit here can make sense. But from Lex description of this player this doesn’t seem like a good spot to make a purely exploit bluff. So that leaves us with math and I just don’t see how you can come up with enough value jams here to make the bluff jam profitable. Either way a great hand and discussion. Really enjoyed this one!
Your stuff is always great but the level you go into this hand is next level. Extremely high level. Awesome work.
Two pair in this hand is exactly the same as a set for the villain…crazy hand!!! I don’t think I could lay that down to anyone under 50!
I don’t even put Lex on 66, since he just called the bet on the turn. I could see Lex having TT or JJ, but only TT makes sense to shove on the river. The fact that the villain folded is insane, especially heads up. Villains hand beats so much and isn’t vulnerable to really any hands that makes sense, except for TT.
Lex got extremely lucky that the villain over folded and gifted his chips over.
Arguably 45 is better than a set of 4s in some ways since LexO is never shoving worse than 55.
@@qazzaqstan I agree! Nice input
@@qazzaqstan he did shove worse than 55, a busted flush draw. If Lex flopped a set I don’t think he would play that passive on the flop or the turn. Now the river shove to me would be TT or air mostly, as I think Lex would try to get more value on the turn with a min raise or 3x. So 33 and 66 is out.
Villain with 2 pair is either winning big or losing big on that river card, which makes the shove difficult for the villain to call.
I think I would close my eyes and call there with 54 and expect to run into TT sometimes there.
@@williamr4053 I meant shoving for value. Also I don't think I'd ever expect to run into TT just because flop action was so strong.
As for action of the turn I can definitely see being split between shove and call with 55 and 66. First off straddler will have some straights in that spot which shouldn't entirely mean you can't get it in but it is something to think about. Secondly calling leaves you in position with a SPR < 1 so it isn't like you are likely leaving money on the table against lower sets anyway.
LexO honestly does not have much he should be shoving for value here (which as why I really don't like the bluff or fold), so most of that will be slow played premium hands.
I've watched most of your videos and I must say I have evolved my hand reading and understanding of tough spots tremendously thank you
How much did it cost you? 😂
@@happywednesday6741 -Alot of time!
It seems weird but I don't think we can have flop 3bets here because of the presence in the raiser's range of 63s. He should be so polarized to sets, straights and bluffs that when we raise even with a hand as strong as 55 or A3 no spade we are actually not very far ahead of his continue range, if at all (this is because when we have A3 and he has 63, although this is rare, it is so bad that it kills the equity of our range.)
So IMO it is much simpler and probably more fundamentally correct to play our entire continue range as a call in this flop spot. Maybe monker would have some occasional 3bets but I doubt it would be more than a couple %. Flop 3bet in position without nut advantage is not usually a correct play.
On the turn both players can have 8s7s but otherwise not much has changed; villain's abililty to have 6s3s ties hero's hands somewhat. In any case once he bets this size, there is little reason to raise as we can easily get the money in on the river if we want to.
So arriving at the river here, we definitely have some hands that want to go for value, thus we have to have a couple of bluffs and what we have to choose from is basically nut flush draws. This isn't so bad as it's not the same situation as when triple-barreling where you block scads of call/call/fold hands that you want opponent to have. In this case it's good that we block opponent from having spade give-ups - if he has those hands, we would want to check back and take our showdown value.
The good news is we can really have any nut flush draw here, so we can pick the absolute best ones. I think the absolute best bluff candidate might be As2s, blocking bottom set which would likely always take this line and call river. Having a pair of ducks really doesn't give us much more SDV than having ace high. So As2s is a hand we would bluff with.
After that, though... I'm not sure. As6s probably has too much SDV. As7s blocks 7s6s, a better hand villain could arrive here with and then fold. Ditto As8s blocking 8s6s. AsTs obviously is way out.
So that leaves As9s, AsJs, AsQs, and AsKs. I can't really see any obvious reason to prefer one of these hands over the other. Picking AsJs can't be that bad, and bluffing with all these hands probably isn't overdoing it by that much (if we have all our 33 and A3s then we can bluff quite a bit here since that's 10 value combos plus 8s7s.)
I think the only hand I’m worried about as the villain is that somehow Lex was holding on with TT and backed into a set. But with so few combos of TT, I’m going to call in that situation.
Interesting hand and great analysis
Villains prime bluffs at AsXs on the flop and we have the As in our hand! This heavily leans villain towards value imho and this is crazy ripping river here
yup..horrible shove, though it worked, villain made an awful fold
I didn’t hear the end yet if I had a set I would check this river 100% lol and snap it off
I think you can justify a call on the flop with implied odds of hitting your nut flush. Plus, If you just call flop, and SB just calls, your call then becomes that much more profitable, and implied odds go even higher. I think folding turn is the more reasonable action though, the price is not the worst, but not the greatest either, and you may have a lot of tainted outs, and can be in a reverse implied odds situation too. In the end awful fold by villain imho.
This is wild. Single pair hands almost don’t exist in their range. Hard to imagine a 2 pair+ hand folding.
If the Straddle is raising draws and 5x in this spot, shouldn't we have a flop 3betting range that includes this hand?
Good call because if the conversation. Hand and decision s seems to be going along fine through the turn. Turn is a very tough decision, probably close either way. River is bad, thinking is bad and inconsistent, shove is bad. Lexo knew it too, even live, he knew it was bad. Still a good conversation!
The problem with the turn call is your hand is just super transparent as spades. Easy fold OTT. Also-I would 100% check river with 3x to induce this exact bluff.
IMO, hero's value range on the river is As3s and 66 and 66 is probably iffy too. I just think that the rest of his straights get it in on the turn. So that's 4 value combos. Since this is 4 value hands, he really just needs two hands as a bluff. If the only non value hands he reaches the river with are A high flush draws, which are like 9 or 10 combos.
Then the question is which combos has the best blockers. I definitely wouldn't want do be bluffing with A7ss, A8ss, A9ss since those block hands we want villain to have I think ATss has some showdown value. I guess it's between one of the high flush draws AK-AJss and A2ss and A6ss. The high flush draws block some of the hands we want villain to have.
I guess A2ss is the best bluff candidate since it blocks 22 while making stuff like 67ss and 68ss fold. Other than that, I am between AKss and AJss. AJss blocks less flush draws than AKss so maybe that's a good bluff after all.
Here Lex-O benefits from his Nitty reputation. The Lex-O from nine months ago would NEVER make this bluff. So good for him!
I'd get snap call there 95% of the time in that situation in my 2/5 , 5/5 games
this video shows why im so at bad at poker if i had either hand i lose the way i play
funny that i played with the guy who banned lexo from magic city yesterday who also happens to be a white guy himself
I have a question regarding a hand. Very interesting spot....
How can I get a response???
m just a nit unless i pick up on some timing tell or sth im folding river in villain shoes as well
Wasn’t fully sure I understood - was Bart saying on the flop to raise again if you have A3 off but flat if you have A3 spades?
I think you need to get it all in on the turn
I think your image and friendly knowledge of each other is the only reason Lex got a fold here.
When counting outs, you gotta count the 3s (at 50% ish)
What about a much smaller bet? In this case you'll get snapped off but ur 6xes ect will probably fold to a 300 to 600$ bet. Because of ur img this has the added benefit of looking like your asking for a cry call. And if u do get called u lose less.
Doesn’t Bart know all the action ahead of time? It’s weird to me how he always acts surprised
what in the world is that fold????
i dont think anyone knows lol
Lex's line is super strong and isn't really bluffed that often by good/tighter players. If you assume that most or all FDs fold the turn then Lex's range mostly consists of straights and sets. Aside from FDs, where are the bluffs coming from? 76s? Are you turning pocket pairs into bluffs and if so, which ones?
@@patjablonski9739 oh man super disagree, I think its pretty hard for good/tighter players who aren't extremely disciplined (just calling w/ nutted hands on earlier streets) to have a lot of value hands. No real 3's in that range.
@@nathanmills3539 In general the IP player really doesn't have to raise very often vs. OOP aggression. The difference with this scenario is that it's 3 way with a donk and a raise in front of him. As mentioned small FDs are likely folding on the flop and several pocket pairs are too. Part of the reason to fold these is that when you do get to the turn and river, your range can still be pretty strong. I agree that it's hard to determine what Lex's value range is since many players will just raise with the nuts or a set here, but I believe A3ss was mentioned as a possible trap and that makes sense. You're also not thrilled about getting 22 or even 44 in on the flop here so those hands might play similarly. But my overall point is that raising nutted hands IP on the flop is something that bad players do too much whereas good players will find way more calls and still get to the river here with some sets and straights while having few bluffs/misses if some pocket pairs and flush draws are folded on the flop
I think your range here looks so much like busted flush draws that getting a bluff through would be hard. Obviously villian doesn’t have A of spades making it much easier to bluff catch.
Everyone saying this is a terrible fold by villain. I probably call the river in his spot because I’m a bit of a station sometimes, but I swear 95% of the time I do, hero shows up with a 3. I can’t fault villain that much for folding.
This is a regular hand in Los Angeles at the low stakes. No surprise out here.
Never been this early to a vid before
Samee
If you have all 33(which you shouldn't EP), A3s and 87♤ you have 11 value combos so you should have 4-5 bluffs. If you get here with K high FD's then you would use them to be balanced if you're folding K high flush draws then A7♤-AJ♤ would be bottom of your range and these are your bluffs but do you really need to be "balanced" here? I might choose to never bluff this spot having such a huge range disadvantage knowing sets will still pay me off and not "exploit" me
Lol, I wanna see what % of guys saying "wtf is that fold easy call lol" would actually have the balls to call irl
I think if you have the balls for aggressive action on flop and turn, you have to hold on to them to call on a clean river.
Bet 3betting the river as a bluff is my favourite suicidal bluff, it's the best suicidal bluff because nobody thinks anyone is capable of it
Villain probably put him on A3. I wouldn't have folded if I was villain.
So uh, I woulda folded flop. Am I a nit??
not really, but I think you can justify a call on the flop with implied odds of hitting your nut flush. Plus, If you just call flop, and SB just calls, your call then becomes that much more profitable, and implied odds go even higher. I think folding turn is the more reasonable action though, the price is not the worst, but not the greatest either, and you may have a lot of tainted outs and can become a reverse implied odds situation.
Folding the flop is the most reasonable because you do not have the direct 4:1 pot odds to call on the flop or on the turn.
@all
Hi guys, iam searching for a hand here on this CLP channel. Played by a woman, AK she have had i think, things going crazy on the river, or lets say she played extremly strong good bluff in the end, i think most of you did not expected this from her.
There are too many videos, sry i dont find this alone. thx
Hero can have A3 33 or 78. He can’t be over valuing a big pair so that only leaves busted draws for bluffs. I think I’d fold too…..
Only 78 spades and maybe clubs, surely with raise reraise on flop?
What a bad fold lmao
Bart, I'm afraid you missed a point with the math. If we are assuming a couple outs are dirty we cannot simply discount our flush outs to 7. We have to assume we also go broke on the 2 dirty outs further decreasing our odds needed to call.
Essentially we can cancel one of our clean outs for each of our dirty ones to get back of the envelope math.
I called 4-5, ST, Blind suited cons
5:46 Too much information
Villan folded a pure bluffcatcher. What is so insane about that?
J-10 of spades is a fold
This guy is solid but is a nit...no ifs or buts about it lol
Uhm solid...So you mean a solid nit...New poker term ASN...A solid nit... 😆 or YMC .. Young man coffee ☕
🐟
I subscribe to Lex O and generally like his content. Yet I always feel like he's a disaster waiting to happen, poker-wise. At any moment, he can be like Rampage on a bad day, just without nearly the same safety net of other assets and income as Rampage has. Glad to see that Lex headed back home to soft FL games for the most part.
I think that playing Hustler live streams would be a mistake. Even if he catches a soft table, or just gets lucky in the short term, putting sessions out there with 100% of his cards and actions known, will be -EV for him regardless of where he later plays. As a vlogger, some hands are already out there, but (because the vlogger chooses what hands are shown) that's far different from knowing what someone did every single hand of a session.
To me, the only reason to play live streams is to (pay to) build your brand. Or to play with an advantage if you've studied the play of most of your opponents on streams, before you have enough history for them to do the same to you.
If villain had 63 of spades (unlikely) hero would only have 5 outs.
Same with 76ss, which certainly seems like a credible hand for villain.
And if villain has 76ss and river is 3s or 8s, hero loses his entire stack.
@@JohnSmith-nx7zj nah 76ss then hero has A and J outs
@@JohnSmith-nx7zj u are right about it being even more in his range tho
@@z17seattle d’oh, yeah of course he does. Being slow there.
I’ve washed all your stuff for a long time, and I love it. But I just have to say, the analysis of that hand gave me a headache
Lol
Using solver means you are playing against solver. Never happens. Playing like solver makes you a worse player.
Imagine having LexO call you a not so great player... It would be like Michael Jordan saying you suck at baseball, minus being the best at something else..
You're a fish
Came here to hate watch couldn’t get passed the inteo
Trolling
Anyone who watches lex’s vlog knows he is a nit.
Dude makes money in the process so hard to be mad at him.
But his attitude in videos where he loses is hilarious. Dude gets mad people aren’t playing loose.
Watches video of player bluffing all in with ace high for $1,500..
Also “that player is a nit”
Lol
@@lexopoker sound logic eh. Don’t fret these fools man. Solid player and vlog. Keep it up dude.
@@lexopoker nit the entirely of his vlog, subtlety refers to making more bluffs in his vlog because his reputation is shit, goes on a call in show to advertise a "wild bluff" that should have never worked.
You're getting fucking omc levels of respect and somehow acting like you're loose. Never change lmao
@@lexopoker bruhhh u are a nit explain to me how some old man folded jacks to you in rainbow board with low cards .. YOURE A NIT THATS WHY U DONT GET INVITED IN LA TO LIVE GAMES ANYMORE
@@lexopoker Here's the problem lex you're a calling station and the only reason you bluffed was because he checked... Bart thought it was horrible and you admitted it was horrible so now you wanna be proud about your horrible play...Because people think you're a tight player... You think this 1 hand proves otherwise..Don't worry you're not really a nit..More a tight starting range and a calling station.. You have trouble waving the white flag and folding...Uhm kinda like that last vlog where you called with KQ on ace high flop etc etc etc..
TODAY ON THINGS THAT NEVER HAPPEND 🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣 NIT O POKER shoving all in pot size bluff gtfo 🤣🤣 if u have ever seen this guy play live it’s tideerrrrrrr than my grandmas ass.. guys be folding pocket jacks to him on rainbow board with low cards … true story look it up it’s here on TH-cam
Table 42 Wednesday June 1st against Ulkraine player Denys
I’d like Lex’s take on Roe v Wade. He was so concerned with PokerBunny’s outfits, I figure he’ll have dumb shit to say about her reproductive rights too.
he took his foot off the gas on river...and, no wonder, the opponent steps it up! When you show any weakness, they try to exploit it. I would checked river only and only if I wanted to set up a trap. They both played terribly...V did just more terrible.