Just to add another idea in Jon Arryn’s favor, it could just be that being the only sane voice in a council full of enablers and leaches, he lost his influence? Sure he could persuade Robert in his youth, but now he was king. Combine that with a small council who were enables or bent on swindling him, he might just have lost the ability to influence him. Just a thought. The part about Dorne though is a big X factor in his motives though, I agree.
@@Kai555100 When did Ned try to stop Robert? All we know is he doesn't want it, but Ned being a proper highborn, he must know this is a basic courtesy?
My thoughts as well. Kinda like how Ned was when he first arrived in KL. One of the very few honorable men trying to work against a sea of slime and self serving vipers
This video is great. It made me think of something. Arryn raised both Robert and Ned as great warriors and generals (because they needed to win the rebellion) but also they (conviently for Jon Arryn) also ended up being mediocre in policitcs at best. This isn't a coincidence he fostered them so he was responsible for their education.
@Alpha Wolf absolutely. Brandon was really similar to Robert, and you don’t need two guys running in like a chicken with their head cut off. Better to have one Commander and one soldier
plus its arguable that ned wasnt that great militaristically , and his political career was so short and he literally stepped into a mess on the unstoppable verge of sure fubarness . its hard to say how he actually woulda faired politically , itd be like if someone became president in 2008 a week before the great recession , and then got decapitated 6 months later . and militaristically , he commanded a horde of northmen enraged by the unjust murder of their warden and his heir in short succession , many of whom obviously had some degree of hope of restoring the king in the north (and if it wasnt ned , who grew up with robert , its very possible their leader would have fought for independence - i mean, many of those same people rose for robb 14 years later like they were e40 waitin for someone to tell me wen to go), so he had a nearly undeterable fighting force, and at least in the show, he was actually saved from arthur dayne by howland (in the book the level of help is more ambiguous but in the show he prolly woulda got that butt whooped if dayne didnt take a howland to the knee (bacc))
Roberts council was probably the worst one anyone could have with how many schemers were there with their own plans and this is honestly the back bone of many issues in the story. Jon arryn being the kings hand seems so simple to connect
Absolutely true Grand Maester Pycelle is plotting with the Lannisters to put a Lannisters on the Throne, Varys is plotting to put a Targaryen on the Throne, LittleFinger is plotting choas. Even if Robert wasn't wasting his time drinking & whoring his life still would be in trouble.
@@Rahim.ali80 it's basically like a army general being put in command of the entire kingdom. He had no chance and it's not his fault. He win and people don't like him. Rhegar was a loser and people think he was amazing. George is brilliant in how he can make people feel for the wiring things. Also barristan was on the cousel and would have tried to kill Robert if he saw him smile at the dead kids(which was also rhegars fault)
@@ivanbluecool Add to that Barristan being a dishonourable lout, who is likely scheming to assist with the Targs, given how the dude did nothing to stop Aerys from trying to wipe out King's Landing, or raping his wife or burning folks. Selmy's skeevy as heck.
@@thebrotherskrynn slemy did worse than that. HE SAVES THE KING. Jaime is hates for killing the mad king and saving everyone. Swlmy is loved for saving him and causing all this chaos.
Seems to me that Jon Arryn's deal with the Martells was this: the crown borrows money from Lannisters, Littlefinger steals it (and hands some of it to Jon Arryn and/or Martells?), and then the Martells murder the Lannisters so that the crown doesn't need to pay back.
The Vail and Dorne don't produce anything and yet seem to have an unlimited supply of money to buy marble and lavish gowns for the noble ladies. You might be onto something.
You guys, once again, brought up a great point. It's well known that Robert's small council was a pit of vipers. Either Jon Arryn was a huge idiot, or he had some skin in that game. Arryn was traveling with the whole circus but nobody ever considered if he was a clown.
I dunno, he gets cuckolded by LF. It's funny since you have to wonder if he figured it out in addition to what Cersei did. Lysa/LF did kill him, after all, and we are never definitively given the reason other than Lysa saying a few things before she loses a fight with gravity.
I believe Arryn is deffo a sketchy dude. I find it fascinating how George write his characters and that the perception of alot of them is completely opposed to how they actually are. I like the subtleness of it
After subcribing to this channel. I found a lot more sketchy stuff the community ignores as a whole because George is a genius just not bringing it up so people forget or the community ignore it over thier theories or what is told to be fact. Jon arryn is quite interesting as a whole since he dealt with dorne and they are some of the biggest problems in the realm so something big must have happened and I doubt he would have cared for the Lannisters.
You make some good points. I do have some clarifications. Jon planned to foster his son with Stannis before he died. (It's literally why Lysa poisons him). Robert made the arrangement with Tywin after Jon died. Every Targaryan king since Aegon III has been of Arryn descent and Aerys II had more Dornish blood than Valyrian. Littlefinger was cooking the books. Eg. The Red Keep only had half of the staff it required for the dungeons but was paying a full payroll. Renly can afford to be well dressed because he is the Lord Paramount of the Stormlands.
One thing never mentioned is Jon arryns relationship with Varys (makes sense because only Varys would know about that) and even the fact that the two are never brought up together is really suspicious to me because they must have worked sooooo closely with each other for a decade and a half
Your also forgetting one thing about the Tourneys. While they do spend thousands on the entire thing they are also making a lot of money as well from all the merchants and others coming in to make a profit.
I think Jon Arryn offered Doran & Oberyn a HUGE SUM for the deaths of Ellia, her kids and Llewyn Martell. The Martells took the deal because Dorne was impoverished and because they had slim chances of defeating Robert. However, the Martells also began plotting their revenge. The missing gold from the treasury was going to Dorne, yearly, in secret, sent by Jon and Littlefinger. That's why the Martells are so rich but the Dornish commoners aren't. Jon was not investigating Cersei to expose her, but to blackmail her for gold, or to blackmail Tywin to forgive the crown's debts to him. That's why he didn't tell Robert the truth even on his deathbed. Jon had problems reproducing so I think little Robbin is Littlefinger's. Jon's first 2 wives also had miscarriages and stillbirths, just like Lyssa, later on. Moon-tea was a common abortificient, most women that used it had no problems in subsequent pregnancies, like Cersei. Jon wed Lyssa because, besides bringing her father's troops, she was a high lord's daughter, young, pretty and proven fertile, and nobody knew she had been sullied besides a few people that would remain silent. Lyssa's miscarriages and stillbirths were not because of moon-tea but because of Jon's defective and now old sperm. Her only surviving child is sickly like Littlefinger was in his childhood, Robbin doesn't resemble Jon or Lyssa or their Tully and Arryn relatives. I wonder if Jon knew or suspected Robbin's true father...
That does make sense. I've been wondering why Cersei and Jaime didn't actually try to kill Jon Arryn. They are happy and relieved that he's dead, for sure, but I would have expected them to have been the ones to off him for real, like the Starks initially thought. I'm pretty sure Cersei wouldn't have hesitated to kill the man who would have exposed her secret.
I think the more logical explanation here is that Littlefinger caused this whole mess, not Jon Arryn. He had the motive and the means and it doesnt overcomplicate the storyline.
Agreed. I think Aryn may have been somewhat complicit, but not to hurt or undermine Robert. He was investigating the parentage of his children after all. He was working to undermine the Lannisters. He goes to the Martells to cultivate a long haul strategy against the Lannisters. Maybe he threw in with Littlefinger because of their shared Martell connection, and Petyr simply uses the Aryn/Martell plan to serve his own ends. Aryn knows about at least some of Littlefinger's corruption, because how could he not, and might even be party to the amount he knows about so that when he finally finds that silver bullet and enough hard evidence to back it up, Aryn can then frame the Lannisters for the kingdom's woes and use the true parentage of Robert's children to get him to agree with cutting off the Lannisters. Littlefinger's corruption was a means to an end. This ostracization would weaken the wealth, power, and influence of the Lannisters, leaving them vulnerable to attack by the Martells who could then take their revenge more easily without the crown making a fuss over killing the royal in-laws, thereby removing the threat of the Lannisters. With those who worked to subvert Robert's rule in favor of their own dynasty out of the way, Jon Aryn could then go about the business of setting the kingdom's affairs in order. Jon Aryn has already proven that he's willing to break the law in order to do what he thinks is right when he sided with Robert's Rebellion, so it doesn't seem a stretch to think that breaking the law or at least allowing others to break the law would be justified in the end if it meant protecting the realm and Robert's rule from another threat, the Lannisters, in the long run. Aryn just doesn't get to follow through on this plan because Littlefinger no longer had any further use of him and could expand the plan beyond Aryn's intention to hurt the Lannisters by instead instigating the war of five kings. Maybe the only reason Aryn didn't end the Lannisters then and there on his deathbed was because of either the deceptive advice or the interference of Littlefinger? It would certainly be in Littlefinger's interest to somehow dissuade or otherwise prevent Aryn from revealing the truth because he needed mystery and confusion in order to then mislead the Starks about the Lannisters in order to foment the war he wanted.
@@JamesDeBall Its certainly possible, but I dont see how that kind of reveal even becomes possible narratively. All the people who knew Jon Arryn (Ned, Robert, Lysa, etc) are dead so who would this even be revealed to? Maybe Varys and LF meet face to face later on? Idk I just dont see it.
Agree. People so want George to be this super conspiracy theory genius. In reality, sometimes his pantsing world building doesn't really add up. Some people look way too far into this.
This is purely speculative, but I've had suspicions about another sketchy situation potentially involving Jon Arryn- Quentyn's fostering. I know the story is it was brokered by Doran and Lord Ormond to settle Oberyn's blood debt, but that seems odd on several fronts. First, the timing. Oberyn's duel occurred 10 years prior to Quent's fostering. Second, that Quent was the child chosen to foster. Quent wasn't Doran's heir; Arianne was. Shouldn't she, the more valuable child, have been chosen? Ormond's decision to take Quent would be like Ned taking Asha instead of Theon to quell Baelon Greyjoy. In any case, are we to believe that Lord Ormond waited 10 years to settle the blood feud w/House Martell by accepting the spare instead of the heir? That just seems incredibly odd. Furthermore, we know Quent was fostered at an unusually young age per Westerosi fostering standards. While we don't know Quent's exact age at the time of his "fostering", there are some clues that allow us to make reasonable inferences. According to Arys Oakheart, Quent was fostered at a "tender" age and also served as Lord Ormond's page. The customary age for boys to serve as pages is from 6-7 onwards. We also know Quent's mother Lady Mellario fiercely opposed this; specifically because he was too young. Tender age, too young...I'd say he was sent away between the time he stopped nursing and age 6. Quent was born in 281AC, so it was likely between the years 282AC-287AC. You know what took place during those years? Jon Arryn's trip to Dorne in 284AC. What if, for reasons unknown, Quentyn's "fostering" was just one more thing Jon Arryn brokered during that trip? Quent would've been 3yrs old. That would explain Mellario's fury and Arys describing him as "tender aged". It also makes sense of an otherwise nonsensical explanation...the blood debt settlement was just a cover story which makes enough sense to most people who don't give a fiddle about Dorne and thus wouldn't question it too closely. I'd even argue that if true Doran probably lied to his wife about it because the fewer people who know the truth, the easier it is to maintain the lie. I could be reading too much into it, but nevertheless Quentyn's unusual fostering arrangement has always stood out to me, and I've often wondered if Jon Arryn was somehow involved.
Maybe Jon Arryn was used as a power broker to help settle the deal with Quent, as like Ashley of Naath stated, why would Lord Ormond want anything less than the heir, unless he was a very forgiving man or somehow knew that Doran was going to make Quentyn the heir to Dorne. Either way Jon Arryn would have the "political power" being hand of the king to help Doran finesse this deal with Quent, despite being in Dorne & Jon Arryn might not having as much political influence down there, he still could have very easily made it much much harder on specific areas of Dorne, by cutting off trade to certain areas (there's numerous ways he could have threatened/influenced Lord Ormond.) Also furthering their plans together as if the 3 of them were scheming together I'm sure they would have had specific intentions for doing so.
Its an interesting observation but Ashley of Naath why would the Hand of the King care to concern the Crown in such an intra-Dornish dispute? What is in it for King's Landing or Sunspear? U still lose your wife if you're Doran because U still lose physical custody of either Princess Mellario's son or daughter through no fault of their parents?
@@ssa3101 I have no idea. Like I said, I could just be reading too much into it. It just seems that there's more to Quent's fostering than meets the eye, and almost nothing about it makes sense. Given that there's overlap between it and Jon Arryn's visit, and given the secret arrangements broached in this video, just seems like there could be something there.
@@cliffordrose4335 Thanks. I have a tinfoil theory about it, so keep that in mind. The timing doesn't exactly work, but here goes. I think that after he fled Dragonstone w/Viserys, baby Dany, and his few good men, Willem Darry split the Targaryen heirs to protect the line of succession like we saw happen with Bran and Rickon in ACOK. Viserys was taken to Essos to put the most distance between he and Robert, and Dany was taken to Dorne. I think Jon Arryn found out during his trip and quietly negotiated the "fostering", in truth hostage holding, of Quent to ensure Dorne's future cooperation with the new Baratheon regime. I think he kept the arrangement quiet to save Westeros from another civil war so soon after the rebellion. Or, if you believe Jon Arryn was a more sinister person like the Greenhands do, perhaps it was an opportunity to extort Prince Doran and force his participation in whatever machinations JA was orchestrating. Or maybe a tool to ensure Doran didn't stray from the plans, ensure his silence, etc. Again it's enormously tinfoil but I do think Dany lived a portion of her early life in Dorne.
So, at the beginnings of the series Robert gives the impression that Jon Arryn was healthy one minute and sick the next. Like suddenly a healthy man is not healthy. Is it possible Jon Arryn made the same mistake that Ned makes in trusting Little Finger on the word of a Tully wife only to be betrayed and killed. Perhaps, Jon Arryn trusted Baelish; after all Baelish's whole social climbing method is chaos.
Remember Jon Arryn was also in his seventies him dying of some illness over the course of some months wouldn't even be suspicious, so why poison him with a quick poison when you can gave him something that's less suspicious. My theory was that after he discovered that Robert legitimate children are actually the Bastard's of Jaime and Cersei, he told that either to Littlefinger or Lysa and they murdered him because of fear that he figures out that Robin is not his.
Littlefinger had Jon killed so he could finish Jon's plan...he and Jon were probably the only two who knew where the $$$ was going,and Petyr Baelish silenced Jon before he could bring up his news about Cersei and Jaime(maybe Jon planned to blackmail Tywin with it). Like when Petyr killed off Dontos to keep him silenced forever. He wanted Jon to shut up like he wabted Ned to shut up. Jon thought he was a player,but was really a pawn.
10:52 To be fair, The Vale and Dorne are two of the most isolated of the 7 Kingdoms, and it is noted that they took precautions. Geography plus the fact that they closed their roads may have been enough to save them. Not saying you're wrong, but this isn't necessarily evidence of a plague conspiracy.
ya but there are very few people in asoiaf who full on betray their nature as presented to the reader . in fire and blood its much more ambiguous where character lies , as it is in any of the histories within the narrative of asoiaf proper , but i just see nothin but conjecture to support the idea that jon arryn was anything but a dope fella
It's impossible he didn't know about the Littlefinger creative accounting, tyrion looks at the receipts and he knows something is up. If Jon arryn paid any attention to what was happening around him during 16 years he would have known
It's been a while since I read the books - and I doubt the books go into explicit detail anyway - but the picture I got was that Robert threw way more than two feasts / tourneys a year. It sounded more like anytime he had an excuse to have an escape from his miserable marriage to Cersei.
Littlefinger was embezzling money by hiring ghost employees in the city watch, royal dungeons, etc. He's now got large amounts of capital, and an engineered debt crisis w/the Iron Bank
@@praetorxyn True. I do think that Lysa, once she gave birth to Sweetrobin, had Jon Arryn wrapped around her little finger, and could get him to go along with all of the schemes Littlefinger (see what I did there) fed through her. Which is especially ironic, since Sweet Bobby A is almost certainly Baelish's kid. He was born like what, a year after Lysa brought Petyr to King's Landing?
@@alexandergangaware429 I think he's Baelish's kid too. I'm not really aware of when he was born etc, but: 1. He has Lirrlefinfer's hair color rather than Lysa or Jon's 2. I'd he was Jon's I don't think Lysa would dote on him nearly as much, nor would he be as sickly Sweet Robin is interesting as everyone's always talking about how he's going to die any time now, and George R R Martin logic makes that mean he's practically invincible like Bran is.
@@praetorxyn Sweetrobin has psychic (greenseer) powers, which he inherited from his father Petyr, who met the Three-Eyed Crow in his dreams while recovering from his wounds taken dueling Brandon Stark. And who knows what lineage House Baelish really has, given that a) the founder was Braavosi, who are a "mongrel people," and b) we have no information on Littlefinger's maternal descent
As Robert being more and more reticent and cynical about governing the realm the less he listened to Jon Arryn, especially in matters relating to "counting coppers." So I don't really think there was anything weird or sketchy about the Realm being in massive debt despite Jon's advice and him being the "only person Robert listened to." During most of his reign, Robert couldn't care less and wouldn't listen anyway. That was just one of his many personality flaws....
I disagree on "many personalities flaws". We were reading about a man who would have either killed himself or willingly choosing exile if Joffrey wasn't his heir. Enough said. People in this fandom always sell Robert short.
Yes, I just don't see anything that would make me think Arryn was "sketchy." What more can he do to prove this than to challenge the Targaryen dynasty for the sake of his foster children? And then marrying *Lysa* ? Now that is a sacrifice. So he returns some bones to Dorne and talks sense to them: "You can't win. You can make the realm bleed but you will only lose more Dornishmen and Martells in the end." Also, the revenge the Martells want is against Tywin and Gregor, not the entire Baratheon/Arryn/Tully/Stark alliance and now Lannisters (not to mention the Tyrells who will just choose the winning side). It's futile, and we don't need Jon Arryn to tell Oberyn that; Doran will. Patience is the way to go and there's no need for Arryn to be in on it. Hell, the only thing that could motivate such a thing is the murder of Elia and her children. And again, that's on Tywin and his henchmen. *Ned* has more reason to side with Dorne over this than Jon Arryn, as Ned loathes the killing of children. Let's not forget who raised Ned from age 8 to adulthood too. Could Ned really become the man he did without a like father figure to guide him in his formative years? I think we have to assume that some men are pretty much what they appear to be. Otherwise we end up thinking anyone without a perspective chapter is a schemer or without honor (and some who do have perspective chapters). There must be some honorable men in the realm.
@Lord Alaric Stark I never said he was without personality flaws. I wrote something else entirely and I invite you to read my comment again. Don't you dare put in my keyboard things I never wrote.You presume too much. I never put emotions in my logical process. Unlike many others apparantely I simply notice that the Robert we see were the final embers of a depressed and alone man that hated his life. A life he never wanted. Regarding Sansa and Joffrey what was Robert supposed to do? He was obviously trying to fix his son a little bit. It was his last ditch effort. If the Starks cannot fix him then he is truly a lost cause. As a father he coulnd't give up on him, particularly since Joffrey was the crown prince and future king and he needed to be somewhat fixed. Of couse WE know what happened next but he didnt. All in all yes he had some understandable flaws,so what? He was a man like everyone else, a man in soo much pain that he had to drink as he did to keep it all down to survive day by day. Because for him his life was torment. With all the horrible charachters in this series, people constantly attack Robert without any mercy. Why?Its like they don't understand that this was a man self destructing.He was a tragic charachter.
@@ravenstrategist1325 not to be that person, nut really robert doesn't get nearly as much hate as sansa and cat though. And sansa is just a naive young girl so its understandable that she makes mistakes...
The Rebellion was in the works before Duskendale, and Jon A/Hoster/Rickard were the architects. Hoster had also tried to marry into the Lannisters and Redwynes. If you do the math, it's blatantly obvious and I don't understand how no one brings this up.
I found your channel because we agreed on so much. But this one went right over my head. Now that you mention it OF COURSE! I feel ridiculous for not even noticing. If Arryn were even adequate at his job LF wouldn't have been able to bury the realm in debt. Also Ned and Robert have a history of trusting bad people. I know you love them, but they constantly put faith in the faithless. Lyanna and Cat to name two.
You guys are great at pointing out where we are just believing things because we were told. But really shouldn't. You make great points for how Jon Arryn is sketchy. I buy that. What was the goal though? Just independence from central rule? Each kingdom for themselves again? As far as his last words. Who says he didn't say or try to do anything else? We only have grand maester Pycelle tell us his words. He was taking care of him. Could have kept him from speaking to anyone other than him. And who trusts Pycelle?
It was indeed very likely that Jon Arryn left a cryptic clue in hopes that Pycelle would pass it along but not figure out what it meant? Stannis would seem to have already known, the truth of Cersei's children, so why say anything at all? To provide his voice posthumously for when Stannis returned?
I would imagine the vale and Dorner didnt get the sickness for two separate real world reasons. The vale is very easy to shut off to the rest of the seven kingdoms. They did it during the war of the 5 kings afterall. Dorne was a) a foreign country at the time that was also difficult to enter and b) a very hot climate, look at hot countries and their covid numbers vs colder countries and their numbers...
These highlords treated the war of the nine penny kings like a high school cafeteria. You had Tywin and Areys and their friends on one side as the preps and the Starks, Aryns, Tully’s and Baratheon's on the other side as the losers that banned together incase the preps tried to pick on them lol just really noticed that
As for the part that Dorne and the Vale has always been the most active realms trying to break free, I agree with Dorne but the Vale is more complicated because it was more about family rivalry after Aegon the conquerers death than it was a unilateral decision, and also during the Blackfyre rebellion the knights of the Vale and house Arryn specifically paid a heavy price on the red grass field
I think Jon was worse than shady, he was just a bad hand. He's got this whole appeasement vibe. He makes peace with Drone but I'd wager Doran just.said what Jon wanted to hear and no concessions needs made, he kept Jaime in the Kingsguard thinking it appeased Tyson in addition to arranging a marriage to Cersei, the man doesn't push. Even the Small Council is jmostly ust either establishment positions or.nepotism. he doesn't seem to actually investigate anything except the incest. There's no attempt at getting unity from Jon.
Tbf the cersei marrige may have come from a lack of suitable women, remember Lyana is dead, Jon Arryn doesn't have a daughter and I think his sister was Long dead, Hoster Tullys two daughters were also gone, their weren't any Greyjoy women arround we know of and the Tyrells and Martells were his enemies That kinda leaves cersei as the best match among the great Houses
Nice catch. This kind of thinking outside the box is why I still watch this channel long after I've stopped watching most of the others. I think Jon Arryn might have been one of those individuals who just enjoy secretly sowing discord, like Doran. People just didn't see it in his case because they assumed he was honorable.
No amount of gold could possibly placate Oberyn for THAT long when it is essentially a bribe to prevent him from avenging his sister and her children. It had to be more, otherwise not even Doran could've controlled him.
I only saw the title and my answer is ABSOLUTELY. Everything hinges on what the generation before Ned & Robert & Brandon's. They were doing the bidding of their fathers and/or guardians, just like they are the "grown ups" in the story now. Sketchy as F
Couple of points to nitpick. On the topic of tournaments, I would imagine the purses are a minority of the cost. Think of the World Cup or the Olympics, those usually end up being a huge financial burden for the hosts and it’s not because of the prize money. Granted the average tourney outside of maybe something like Harrenhall isn’t on that scale, but they could be very expensive, just hosting and feasting all that nobility. Now we know that it wasn’t just tournies that beggared the realm. We know Littlefinger was embezzling a lot of money for instance. Nor does it necessarily excuse Jon Arryn. Just saying you are probably underestimating the financial burden of hosting all those tournaments. On the subject of why he didn’t just tell the king, I got the sense Arryn had just put it all together and feared the schemers and got out of dodge. To play devils advocate, we know Robert is a rash and violent person, Jon Arryn might have feared that just dropping the truth bomb on him would have even worse consequences than what ended up happening. I figured he died before he figured out what to do with it and left it in Stanis and Ned’s hands to figure it out after his death. Great content, got me thinking about a character I had never given much thought to and you bring up plenty of other things that do seem shady. Keep up the great content!
Wait..Dont the Olympics and these big international events bring money IN to the host country? Is that not the whole point of nations competing for hosting rights? Even in Westeros, wasn't there some passing comment about the Hand's Tourney and how every winesink/brothel/pot shop would be FULL from all the additional people in the area?
While I agree the cost of a tourneys is going to be more than just the purse, it's usually the building of mass infrastructure which costs. I doubt tourneys were held in new locations each time, so where people competed and inned wouldn't be a problem. The cost of the feasts would be pretty massive though.
Personally I don’t think the prize purses are the expensive part of the tourneys. Like gold medals aren’t the expensive part of the olympics, it’s all the other bullshit you have to do that’s costs a host country billions.
Your dedication to this story is amazing. A lot of good points are brought up here. Any chance you can cover more of this topic? Like, if Jon had many bases possibly covered, could he have been sending the crown's funds to Dorne? With Sweet Robin as his heir, how would he cover his home court? Unless he's sure his bannermen are totally loyal to him.
Tourneys have other expenses than prizes. You have to arrange seating, supplies for the fights (lances are more expensive than you think) accommodation etc. Even so you're right it shouldn't cost more than 1 million [EDIT: in total over Robert's reign]. Also why aren't they recouping at least some of the expense by selling concessions? It's specifically mentioned by LIttlefinger that lots of people make money from the Tourneys. Can't they at least make the pie-sellers and various stall-holders pay something?
At the end of Robert's Rebellion the Lansiter's were too powerful, so Jon told Dorne that if they wait... they can take out all of the Lanister's in one fell swoop
Aryyn knew that House Martell were slavers and could probably get all the other Kingdoms and most of the other Dornish Houses against them if they wanted to keep starting shit, far better to just make peace for the time being and delay. If Arryn didn't tell Robert it's because he didn't want House Lannister to be immediately wiped off the map, which would make a war against the Starks impossible, Arryn's goals seem to align with LF in that instance. Also, perhaps Arryn isn't so much of a player but may fancy himself a player, if LF is smarter we could see actions by Arryn really be orchestrated, or at least influenced by LF for this goals.
Tyrian promised away all the gold in Casterly Rock. I think that’s a set up for irony to play out, it’s going to turn out there’s no gold there. Or the guy he promised it to will die. Either way there’s going to be a twist with that.
@@AwakeAtTheWheel Yeah I'm actually not sure now. I just remember Tywin said it, and his life and death in the show were pretty straightforward from the books. That doesn't mean they didn't write extra lines for show Tywin though.
Maybe, Littlefinger is secretly working with Dorne and Jon Arryn. Littlefinger might be arranging to wed Sansa to Aegon, that would unite Dorne, The Vale, and The North against the Lannisters. This could be the second best option since Jon Connington was not able to present Aegon to Daenerys. This channel keeps changing my perspective on the story, cannot wait for the next theory.
I don't think LF knows aboit Aegon. If he did he'd already have Sansa at the pole boat. He's gonna be pissed that Varys pulled off this. Remember Varys had no idea LF was framing Tyrion for Bran or Joffrey. LF and Varys don't tell each other anything.
Okay, this was great. Right up there with the Ser Criston Cole video in terms exposing this kind of thing George does. It's very easy to forget that we really have no reliable narrators in this story. Robert and Ned were with John Arryn at an impressionable age and he was good to them so of course they're looking at him through rose-tinted glasses. I think the "where did the money go?" Is really important because seriously where did all that money go??? Unless he was hoarding it, it would have popped up somewhere in someone's expenses. I know you guys have pointed out that the Dornish economy is a blackhole. They have very little to trade but the highborn are still looking good in silks and lace. Could John have offered them a pension as part of his appeasement? Also, if he and Littlefinger were working together then I'm immediately looking at those brothels as money laundering centers.
As a certain Finnish Formula 1 driver would say, "F**king finally!!" I always wanted to hear why you thought Jon Arryn to be sketchy and you've finally released the podcast. But yeah, we probably aren't ever getting what Jon Arryn offered the Martells which squashed the budding rebellion. Edit: So let me get this straight. You're suggesting that all the things that led to the rebellion were all part of the Masterplan? But how? Dorne won't rise against the Targaryens, not when their princess is married to the Crown Prince. STAB alliance is usually attributed to the Maester's conspiring to remove the Targs. They got the Lannisters to go against the Targs, Steffon's death puts the 'B' part of the alliance into place as Robert is more likely to side with Arryns and others instead of Targaryens who his father was loyal to. The Martells got on the Targaryen's side due to marriage and had nothing against the Lannisters until Elia's death. So what was the Endgame? Killing Rickard & Brandon can't possibly be influenced by Jon Arryn or Doran as they were nowhere close to the KL to influence Aerys 2. LF wasn't a courtier back then he's influencing nobody while recuperating. How do they kickstart the rebellion if what lead to it (Stark deaths) wasn't even influenced by Jon Arryn and Doran? Jon Arryn, if he was in Team Martell then why would LF kill him when he is Doran's creature as you suggest? Doran is currently planning Lannister destruction but what was his plan before that? Too many questions for me but I still understand why Jon Arryn was sketchy, to a considerable extent.
the thing that sold me is littlefinger hired the assassin for bran. jon arryn was trying to exterminate all the magic bloodlines. stark have north magic, baratheons have targ blood, easily could have conspired with the dornish. andal-roynar alliance
Love your videos, this podcast was awesome! BTW, playing 'devil's advocate', so-to-speak, is there another possible theory? What if Arryn couldn't call for anyone on his death bed because of the effect of the drugs killing him? Or, what if his advanced age caused him to have some form of dementia? I love the idea of him being more of a player, but what if that wasn't the case? What if he traveled to Dorn and the Dornish were surprised that their plans were so obvious and decided to go more sneaky and simply just let Arryn think he did a good job of convincing them? Just throwing ideas out, please don't hate. Love you guys!!!!
What about Littlefinger’s family coming from Braavos. Connection to Iron Bank. Also the marriage pact between Arianne and Viserys took place in Braavos.
People keep saying that the Cersei-Robert marriage was a good idea, why? It doesn't ensure Lannister loyalty to Robert, Tywin and Jaime's actions did that. The Lannisters are in the weakest position if the Targaryens come back. Other houses rose in rebellion and could expect to be punished, but the Lannisters literally stabbed their King in the back and murdered members of the Royal family. Unlike other Houses that at least have solidarity with each other, nobody likes the Lannisters. The Houses that were loyal don't like them because they were treacherous. The houses that rebelled remember the Lannisters sitting back and doing nothing while they bled and died. They even sacked King's landing, which was totally unnecessary and alienated the smallfolk. Tywin could simply have said "OK, when we enter the city, only attack enemy soldiers, no raping, no theft, or you hang.". It's not impossible to take a city without sacking it. Brutality towards the occupants usually only happened when the troops were angry at unreasonable resistance, which KL didn't provide. Now obviously some crime will occur, there are thousands of soldiers and some of them are just nasty pieces of work to stupid to realize Tywin means it. But hanging even a few of these makes a valuable point, that the people of KL weren't the enemy, the Targaryens were. So Tywin the "genius" made another enemy for no reason. So the Lannisters options are a) ensure that the Baratheon line continues to rule and likes them, b) ensure the Baratheon line continues and don't bother getting them to like you and c) die in a fire. If the Targaryens come back they die in fire, there's no debate, there's no question, you stabbed daddy, eat Dragonfire. But surely even if they're committed (for their own interests) to maintaining Baratheon rule, Robert still needs them to be onside with his policies right? No. Again, the Lannisters have alienated lots of people and acting against them will please those people, while the Lannisters will sit there and take it. Why? Because they have no other option. It's a strong Baratheon dynasty or the fire. Tywin understands this which is why he keeps "lending" the Crown money even though he despairs of getting it back. The Lannisters have power only because Jon Arryn was stupid enough to give it to them.
I always found that MF weird. Cause you would think the man Ned held in high regard would say something about Roberts behavior regarding how he handled the babies.
I'm not sure about this one. Whatever might've been up with him Jon Arryn he had a reputation as an honorable man to an extent that is rivaled only by Ned. Ned was also pretty much raised by Jon Arryn. Stannis even trusted him and we know he doesn't trust easily. As for not telling Robert about Cersei and the kids. It could very well be that like Ned he wanted to find a way to handle the situation that would spare the children perhaps even giving them to Tywin to placate him over what's about to befall Cersei and Jamie. Also I can't see a situation in which almost all his immediate family is imprisoned and under threat of execution and Tywin just meekly accepts this state of affairs. To quote a point Littlefinger made to Ned, "Do you really expect Lord Tywin to sit idly by while his children and grandchildren's heads are fitted for spikes?"
I'm not sure Jon Arryn knew about Lysa's pregnancy. I got the impression from Hoster Tully's delirium that it was a secret; if not then there was no reason for the moon tea to be drunk. If he knew and accepted the fact he would have agreed to keep the child and raise it... instead Lysa was forced to drink a concoction that probably made it harder to bear a living child. Jon Arryn was taking no risk because a High Lord would not under most circumstances marry a woman considered soiled.
do we ever hear how jon arryn reacted to hearing about the dead targyen childern in kings landing? is it possiblie that he had the same comapssion about dany and viserys that ned did?
Unless he was just the only sane and non-corrupt voice that just got ignored and was trying and failing to hold everything together by a thread (which is so much less interesting), perhaps he was doing potentially shady stuff for what he thought were good reasons, just like how he committed treason to the Targaryans? Just spitballing, but perhaps he encouraged the marriage to Cersei just to keep the realm together out of immediate political convenience, to take advantage of Lannister wealth and to establish a hard-won peace, but then proceeded to try to undermine the kingdom to keep Tywin and his brood away from power so Robert's dynasty wouldn't be subverted in the long run. Perhaps after seeing what they did in the sacking of King's Landing, he knew the Lannisters were ambitious and ruthless and would try to undermine Robert's new kingdom for their own dynasty. I don't see him trying to do whatever he may have been doing with the goal to hurt Robert, someone who was like one of his own sons. If he really had so little regard for Robert and was willing to leave him out to dry, he wouldn't have fostered him, raised him well, or participated in the rebellion. Perhaps he was trying to create a scenario that would allow Robert to peace out like he kinda always wanted anyway, or maybe it was to get him less back-stabby/shady inlaws once the Lannisters served their purpose. The realm needed the Lannisters at the time, and to save face, they needed to be compensated for their role in the victory defeating the Mad King, but they weren't going to be good for the realm in the long run as I think the story as it happens clearly shows. Get the Martells to hold off on taking revenge in order to end the mass bloodshed and eatablish some level of stability, and tell them to prepare for the opportune moment down the line, which Oberyn does by gathering his children. Aryn could then bring in Littlefinger, knowing he was corrupt, ambitious, and friendly with his partner, the Martells allowing his mischief to a certain extent in order to serve the greater plan. Perhaps Aryn knew everybody on the council were foxes in the hen house, but he would allow it to a certain extent only for a time to serve his goal of getting rid of the Lannisters. Let's hypothosize that he knew that Robert's children weren't his own much either since that's something the Hand should have known, or at least that he was digging for dirt since day one and only recently found the hard evidence he was seeking. Regardless, he was always scheming against the Lannisters from the beginning and just needed the silver bullet with enough hard evidence to sell Robert on the idea that the in-laws were the liability and were responsible for the kingdom's woes. With enough emotional incentive to get rid of the Lannister lot, why would Robert care to investigate the truth of the Kingdom's finances when he never cared to bother with the details before anyway? As things gradually deteriorated, this weakening of the realm would be extra fuel to the fire that he could use to lay blame on the Lannisters to get Robert to believe that getting rid of them wasn't just satisfying for his own ego, but that it would be in the best interest of the realm as well. If Jon Aryn found out Cercei was having Jaime's kids earlier than we think, he could have even used this tidbit of juicy info to entice Littlefinger onto his side or to keep him there, or at least so he thinks. With the Lannisters on the out with the crown, this would weaken the Lannisters' wealth, power and influence which would present an easier and greater window of opportunity for Oberyn Martell to finally take his revenge without causing too much of a fuss for killing the royal in-laws. In short, Jon Aryn and the Martells conspire to frame and get rid of the Lannisters, the Martells as payback for King's Landing, Jon Aryn to get rid of a dangerous partnership that would try to take power for themsleves. Littlefinger is enlisted by Aryn because of their shared connection with the Martells to stir up trouble in the realm. Aryn would frame everything on the Lannisters which he would sell to Robert by exposing the true nature of his children's parentage. Robert would ostracize the Lannisters from the realm, and the Martells could get their satisfaction against a weakened and exposed Lannister House without interference from the crown in an easy clean up, the Lannisters no longer threatening Robert's rule. Aryn can then go about the business of Hand to set the kingdom's affairs in order again without internal threats. What undermines the whole plan, however, is that Littlefinger isn't to be trusted, and Jon Aryn gets stabbed in the back by Littlefinger and Lysa before the trigger can be pulled because Littlefinger wants to turn the Aryn plan on its head for his own benefit. Do we know that Jon Aryn deliberately didn't summon Robert to tell him the truth? How do we know that Littlefinger either advised against revealing it so soon or that he interfered with an attempt to do so? Littlefinger could sell the idea to the Starks that it was the Lannisters who killed Jon Aryn because he knew Aryn's plan, so in classic manipulative form, Littlefinger used a grain of truth to spin a web of lies that would decimate more than just the Lannisters as perhaps Jon Aryn originally intended. This would kind of provide a narrative symmetry in that Aryn meets his demise for the same reason Ned does, because they trust the wrong man with secret plans to combat the Lannisters. Mqybe even the corruption was worse than Jon Aryn was lead to believe by Littlefinger because the extent of the corruption was hidden in plain sight? Maybe Aryn didn't intend to cause as much harm as he and Littlefinger did, and Petyr used Jon's knowledge of and complicity in some of his corruption in order to hide the rest of it in plain sight, again, twisting Jon Aryn's plan for his own personal goals and enruchment while feigning loyalty until Jon Aryn was no longer of use. Oberyn eventually comes up to King's Landing when he does to finally do what he always intended because his partner in crime, the reason he waited so long and stood down when he did, had been removed from the chess board prematurely. He arrives impatient and eager to finally get answers and take his revenge even though he is the one who waited so long in the first place because the original Aryn/Martell conspiracy fell apart, so now it was just back to plan A. Alternatively, perhaps Jon Aryn was more ideologically driven and was working against Robert's rule, not to hurt him personally, but so that somebody who had no distant Targ relations would ascend the Iron Throne instead, thereby affording Robert the freedom he desired, perhaps. They fought a rebellion to overthrow the Targs only to put Robert on the throne because he had distant Targ family in his bloodline and therefore had the best claim to rule? I get it, but I could see more partisan individuals asking themselves why anyone should care about the closest claim in the line of Targaryan succession after everything they went through to erase the Targs or the need to have any consideration for the line of succession in the first place. Perhaps the goal was to correct a perceived error by establishing a clean break from the former dynasty. I'm still kinda new to ASOIAF, and certainly don't know the lore or Jon Aryn, as much as anyone on this channel, and I certainly don't think I have a firm memory of the timeline of events, but does any of this sound remotely plaisible? It was the best idea I came up with that could harmonize both views of Jon Aryn as both a good man with honorable intentions and someone worthy of suspicion for playing dirty under the table for his own aims.
Well, there happens to be much more spending then Robert’s tourneys... and I believe there are more then 2 annual: -King‘s Landing and the Red Keep had to be repaired after the Rebellion -The entire Royal Fleet had to get rebuilt -Expensives to defeat the Greyjoy Rebellion -Robert was very generous, so donations to loyal Lords and his court is also constantly filled with applicants -I‘d say at least 6-7 tourneys a year in KL; 1 to each of their 5 family name days, several to the victory, coronation, marriage etc. and of course jubilees -I‘d guess Cersei‘s lifestyle isn‘t cheap and Tywin won‘t pay for it anymore 😂 -Armour and horses for him, Joffrey and Tommen... and i guess getting more and more fat creates the need of several newer armour and other clothes -Prostitutes & Hunting will also create its bills over 1.5 decades, especially as often Robert does both Of course this is all just as hypothetical as the next theory 😅
Question has George confirmed that it was arys that called for rob and neds heads? Could it be possible that either the maesters, or Jon Arryn himself, could have forged/made up the order to spark a rebellion, as without the north or the storm lands on his side the crown would only have the reach, and an iffy west and an iffier dorn.
As cool as all these little connections to other theories are... Jon Arryn just seems to be that Richard Neville Count of Warwick figure in a Song of Ice and Fire... the talented politician and general that just isn‘t A tier material when it comes hinter throne, but good enough to influence/control said material (Robert) and seized the opportunity... but ultimately, fails doing so cause his protégée, as soon as sitting on the throne, just doesn‘t listen and follow as he did before... Jon & Robert resembling very much Warwick and Edward IV. in that way, just without fighting each other in the end
As for Dorne, I think it was clear that they stood alone against Robert’s rebellion and that rising for Viserys would just get more Martells killed, so Doran began plotting his revenge. I think that the problem here is that you’re viewing Jon Arryn through his “sons’” eyes, many people view their fathers as these hyper-competent founts of honour and wisdom, we mainly know Jon through Ned who was basically his son and so we know him this way. What’s likely is not that he was malicious or “sketchy” but that he wasn’t as competent as Ned and Robert thought he was, so he was manipulated by Littlefinger and Varys.
This video made me wonder what really Arryn's words "the seed is strong" mean. Maybe he was talking about seeds of coming war and chaos, if that was really his plan.
Does it say that Jon even talked to Oberyn on the subject? I feel it most likely that Doran was the one talking Oberyn down. It just doesn't make sense that he would begin and play a major role in a rebellion and then immediately plan to get the people he overthrew back on the throne. I can follow, maybe he was with the faith and maesters to overthrow Targs... But to what end would you then plan to get them back?
As far as the spring sickness not affecting those two places: my thoughts are that they are more isolated communities and may have had significantly less contact with the infectious particle. Maybe.
Okay, I’m trying not to gush like an elderly fan-boy, but I really like your work. I’ve listened to you on your channels and as a guest on other people’s programs. As an Army veteran, I especially appreciated your takes on the battle strategies.
Got me thinking that Jon Arryn got Robert to borrow the money without the intent of paying it back. He had the plot rolling to look into the Lannister’s and his meeting with drone like “ yeah we will deal with them soon.”. I think they were intentionally taking money from the Lannister’s and when shit hits the fan with them you just disarmed one of the Lannister’s biggest weapons, mooooney.
Hello orderofthegreenhand, I have done the due diligence and can earnestly submit to Mary Ellen's point (Did Prince Doran just let the Targaryen kids beg around the Free Cities?) that the Prince of Dorne likely had a secret deal to care for them at the really reclusive residence with a red door & lemon tree in High Hermitage. I'm talking about his Dragonstone decoy deal with her Grace ~ Queen Rhaella & Ser Willem
A more plausible theory seems to be that Robert “came of age” and into what he truly considered maturity when he became king, thus his refusal to listen to Jon, a man he once seen as a father figure. Sometimes, immediate adulthood comes with a need to prove to know better than your parental figures. Jon was good advisor, yet the person he listened to least because he had the fatherly image. Parental rebellion is a common trait amongst humans, even when a child has a good role model.
Also the news of Cersei, Jamie and the kids being seized is going to be explosive. Word of these events will reach Casterly Rock long before any summons especially thanks to Pycelle. Ravens will fly, a Faceless Man will contracted to do away with Robert. The Golden Company, The Second Sons and of course the Brave Companions will all be sent receive a golden invitation to come carve as much you can from the hide of the Seven Kingdoms and earn a King's ransom from the Lannisters for this escapade of self enrichment. While those storms are gathering a raiding force under The Mountain will be sent to burn as much of The Reach as possible. So yeah Tywin could do a lot of damage and I think he would if the situation was that drastic. He could probably martial enough of his forces to make a beeline for the capitoll with a force that could take the city Especially if the Reach is having to scramble its forces while there lands burn and mercenaries come pouring in. With Robert dead and Stannis Dragonstone I like Tywin's chances.
Hmm, i agree with every thing else, but are you insinuating that tywin could get stannis to go against his brother and not get back at him just because stannis would be the next in line? Completely unlike stannis.
Okay... you are right... coming up with some theory that would explain Jon Arryn's actions is not easy... but there are some pieces. We learn that Jon agreed with Ned about NOT killing the Targaryens who got away - Viserys and Daenerys. He likely had a similar grudge against the Lannisters. One thing that strikes me is all the Lannister occupation of the Red Keep and Kings Landing. Is there any chance the Martel's had lots of Martel guards in Kings Landing or the Red Keep who might have been implicated in the Lyanna "abduction"... OR in the original discussions on overthrowing the Mad King and replacing him with Rhaegar? I can't see how it would all work together... other than Dorne had their OWN reasons for not wanting to bring everything out into the light...
If Jon Arryn told the Martells that part of the plan if to bankrupt the Lannisters first, might be a reason Dorian waited as long as he did. Also the fact that Casterly Rock has mined zero gold means it was working. Just took a while.
Jon Arryn, probably wanted to get his only son out of Kings Landing before telling Robert. Got his son set up to be fostered with Stannis rather than Tywin (so not to be a hostage). Once his son was out of Kings Landing then got to Robert and let chaos start with Lannisters going to war with the crown. I don't blame the guy for helping his family first before going to the king... As he is not certain how he would react.
It might just be me, but for several reasons it makes NO sense for Aerys to demand that Jon Arryn just kill his 2 wards, no matter who they are. Aerys would have sent people to get those kids if he actually wanted them-no warning in advance. It's way too much to type here, but there's good reason for Jon Arryn to pretend that he was ordered to murder his 2 teenage wards or at least be fooled into thinking he was being ordered by the mad king. Whether he knew or was fooled, the end results are the same.
I think the issue with Jon Arryn is that we hear most of his praises from Ned, who is biased, sentimental and hasn't seen him as long as Robert. Jon controlled Robert as a youth and Robert forever had a sort of reverence for his father figure BUT Robert was King. It is clear later that Robert is not used to being disobeyed or challenged, Ned just didn't see that evolution. Also, the Dorne thing is way overthought. Jon Arryn brought Prince Lewyn's bones as peace offering and Doran played the tune he wanted to hear. Doran knew that Dorne was not in a position to take on 6 Kingdoms right then, after losing thousands of men at thr Trident. Doran let himself be appeased. And Oberyn is a hot head but he still listens to his brother- his Lord. So Oberyn leaves Doran to his plots and goes off to Essos to let off some steam. Doran also knew that Viserys and Daenerys were safe with the Sealord of Bravos (he signed the betrothal agreement for Arianne and Viserys, so makes sense that he was housing the children). Then Willem Darry died, and there was new Sealord, not interested in Targaryen restoration, and the power changeover was chaotic and violent and quick... the children was gone before the news reached Doran. And then Vis and Dany were hiding on the streets or being short term guests before having to run and hide again. It wasn't until Illirio found them that they had a level of permanence in their lives. But by then, Illirio and Varys had their own plans for them, and Viserys was unhinged and clearly with the same lack of reverence for Dornish as Aerys.
Renly was ALWAYS like that, though, because Donal Noye mentions it to Jon at the Wall in the first book. He WASHINGTON Rd paramount of the Stormlands so, I don't think he was stealing. JA DID buy that really nice suit of armor for his squire RIGHT before he died..although, I think Lysa bought the armor.
Iv always assumed Varys played a major role in negotiations with Dorne we know very little about his activities during that period and he’s from Lys where the martell family has extremely deep connections! The way Varys had a hand in the death of both Tywin and Kevin Lannister and especially the way he stood and delivered to Kevin during his assassination
Back in 2023. I've been thinking about this lately: Robert's Rebellion should really have been called Jon's Rebellion. Robert got the train rolling with his initial victories but it was Jon that denied the Mad King and raised his banners first. Which makes me wonder.... Did Jon Arryn not want to sit the iron throne? What if Jon is of the kind that Westeros is better off without them iron throne (a central king)?
@TheOrderoftheGreenhand So I've tried putting myself in Job Arryn's shoe's, considering what he had and hasn't done, I think his thought process comes down to this: 1. Robert is a great warrior, but I don't think he wants to sit the iron throne, although it seems everyone Else thinks he should take since he defeated Rhaegar. Hell clearly need my help. 2. F**k! Tywin Lannister, who sat out most of the war and has the healthiest army, who basically joined in when he saw who was gonna win, is pushing his daughter on Robert. For real? Ok, not the time for another war, but that slimy prick is gonna pay. 3. Hey Doran, Oberyn, I know you guys are pissed, but you should know Robert was no where near Kings landing when Elia died, and here are the facts. Tywin, the mountain, Amory Lorch. If you can wait, we'll bleed Tywin Lannister dry first. Being father in law to the king will cost him dearly. 4. Heeey Little finger, you're good with numbers...I'm gonna need your service in kings landing, me and some friends down South need to fill some coffers off the books. Cut yourself, but make things seem legit for the rest of the council. Robert doesn't have a head for numbers, but I don't need anyone else running to him either. 5. Robert is having waaaaay too many bastards. His seed is strong, some look just like him, unlike his legitimate kids.... Wait..... STANNIS!
I'm here to submit that Ser Willem Darry did not originate the secret marriage deal for King Viserys & Princess Arianne as he lacked the social standing to even gain an audience with the Prince of Dorne or Sealord of Braavos. It was her Grace who originated the deal & Ser Willem was her proxy post mortum. We know that Dragonstone & Sunspear were corresponding so was there also a deal between them to hide Viserys in a false identity if a suitable one could be selected & trained from the seeds of Dragonstone village? Means, motive & opportunity right? Her Grace had months to plan and Prince Doran was the eldest child of her former Lady-in-Waiting so she must have been familiar with him right? The false Baratheon Princess Myrcella had a royal decoy so why not the genuine Prince Viserys . . . last legacy to House Targaryen?
You also should not forget yearly taxation and that Cersei probably got the biggest dowry out of any bride in the realm. They probably spent around 10 Million dragons. Imagine some bureaucrats telling the president that his predecessor spent 10 trillion dollars on parties and wine.
Note that it takes Tyrion 10 minutes to figure out LF was ripping off the crown.
Just to add another idea in Jon Arryn’s favor, it could just be that being the only sane voice in a council full of enablers and leaches, he lost his influence? Sure he could persuade Robert in his youth, but now he was king. Combine that with a small council who were enables or bent on swindling him, he might just have lost the ability to influence him. Just a thought. The part about Dorne though is a big X factor in his motives though, I agree.
Yeah like Ned tried to stop Robert from holding the Hands tourney but that also didn't work
This. Calling someone sketchy with zero evidence isn’t fair and pretty judgmental.
@@Kai555100 When did Ned try to stop Robert? All we know is he doesn't want it, but Ned being a proper highborn, he must know this is a basic courtesy?
@@hypatiakovalevskayasklodow9195 because he looked at the numbers and said "bitch we can not afford"
My thoughts as well. Kinda like how Ned was when he first arrived in KL. One of the very few honorable men trying to work against a sea of slime and self serving vipers
This video is great. It made me think of something. Arryn raised both Robert and Ned as great warriors and generals (because they needed to win the rebellion) but also they (conviently for Jon Arryn) also ended up being mediocre in policitcs at best. This isn't a coincidence he fostered them so he was responsible for their education.
As the 2nd son, Ned would've needed the military education more than the political education. Brandon would've been the politically inclined one.
@@Richard_Nickerson Which is ironic because Brandon was a fucking badass, way better than Ned and and more comparable to Robert with a sword.
@Alpha Wolf absolutely. Brandon was really similar to Robert, and you don’t need two guys running in like a chicken with their head cut off. Better to have one Commander and one soldier
plus its arguable that ned wasnt that great militaristically , and his political career was so short and he literally stepped into a mess on the unstoppable verge of sure fubarness . its hard to say how he actually woulda faired politically , itd be like if someone became president in 2008 a week before the great recession , and then got decapitated 6 months later . and militaristically , he commanded a horde of northmen enraged by the unjust murder of their warden and his heir in short succession , many of whom obviously had some degree of hope of restoring the king in the north (and if it wasnt ned , who grew up with robert , its very possible their leader would have fought for independence - i mean, many of those same people rose for robb 14 years later like they were e40 waitin for someone to tell me wen to go), so he had a nearly undeterable fighting force, and at least in the show, he was actually saved from arthur dayne by howland (in the book the level of help is more ambiguous but in the show he prolly woulda got that butt whooped if dayne didnt take a howland to the knee (bacc))
@@abejohnson1590he was also a massive idiot.
Roberts council was probably the worst one anyone could have with how many schemers were there with their own plans and this is honestly the back bone of many issues in the story. Jon arryn being the kings hand seems so simple to connect
Absolutely true Grand Maester Pycelle is plotting with the Lannisters to put a Lannisters on the Throne, Varys is plotting to put a Targaryen on the Throne, LittleFinger is plotting choas. Even if Robert wasn't wasting his time drinking & whoring his life still would be in trouble.
@@Rahim.ali80 it's basically like a army general being put in command of the entire kingdom. He had no chance and it's not his fault. He win and people don't like him. Rhegar was a loser and people think he was amazing. George is brilliant in how he can make people feel for the wiring things.
Also barristan was on the cousel and would have tried to kill Robert if he saw him smile at the dead kids(which was also rhegars fault)
@@ivanbluecool Add to that Barristan being a dishonourable lout, who is likely scheming to assist with the Targs, given how the dude did nothing to stop Aerys from trying to wipe out King's Landing, or raping his wife or burning folks. Selmy's skeevy as heck.
@@thebrotherskrynn slemy did worse than that. HE SAVES THE KING.
Jaime is hates for killing the mad king and saving everyone. Swlmy is loved for saving him and causing all this chaos.
Seems to me that Jon Arryn's deal with the Martells was this: the crown borrows money from Lannisters, Littlefinger steals it (and hands some of it to Jon Arryn and/or Martells?), and then the Martells murder the Lannisters so that the crown doesn't need to pay back.
The Vail and Dorne don't produce anything and yet seem to have an unlimited supply of money to buy marble and lavish gowns for the noble ladies. You might be onto something.
U just might be up to something :o
@@sleekoduck wine and lemons though?
You guys, once again, brought up a great point. It's well known that Robert's small council was a pit of vipers. Either Jon Arryn was a huge idiot, or he had some skin in that game. Arryn was traveling with the whole circus but nobody ever considered if he was a clown.
I dunno, he gets cuckolded by LF. It's funny since you have to wonder if he figured it out in addition to what Cersei did. Lysa/LF did kill him, after all, and we are never definitively given the reason other than Lysa saying a few things before she loses a fight with gravity.
I believe Arryn is deffo a sketchy dude.
I find it fascinating how George write his characters and that the perception of alot of them is completely opposed to how they actually are. I like the subtleness of it
After subcribing to this channel. I found a lot more sketchy stuff the community ignores as a whole because George is a genius just not bringing it up so people forget or the community ignore it over thier theories or what is told to be fact.
Jon arryn is quite interesting as a whole since he dealt with dorne and they are some of the biggest problems in the realm so something big must have happened and I doubt he would have cared for the Lannisters.
I think Arryn's goal was was seven independant kingdoms, which is why he weakened the iron throne so much and perhaps why dorne was on board.
Seven independent kingdoms is a bad idea at this point, and most would last less than a year before being invaded by someone else.
@@jacobenke7936 who lol? Essos doesn't have the power to try.
@@moumitaghosh8052 One kingdom against another.
You make some good points.
I do have some clarifications.
Jon planned to foster his son with Stannis before he died. (It's literally why Lysa poisons him). Robert made the arrangement with Tywin after Jon died.
Every Targaryan king since Aegon III has been of Arryn descent and Aerys II had more Dornish blood than Valyrian.
Littlefinger was cooking the books. Eg. The Red Keep only had half of the staff it required for the dungeons but was paying a full payroll.
Renly can afford to be well dressed because he is the Lord Paramount of the Stormlands.
One thing never mentioned is Jon arryns relationship with Varys (makes sense because only Varys would know about that) and even the fact that the two are never brought up together is really suspicious to me because they must have worked sooooo closely with each other for a decade and a half
BINGO😳😳😳nobody brings it up
Your also forgetting one thing about the Tourneys. While they do spend thousands on the entire thing they are also making a lot of money as well from all the merchants and others coming in to make a profit.
I think Jon Arryn offered Doran & Oberyn a HUGE SUM for the deaths of Ellia, her kids and Llewyn Martell. The Martells took the deal because Dorne was impoverished and because they had slim chances of defeating Robert. However, the Martells also began plotting their revenge. The missing gold from the treasury was going to Dorne, yearly, in secret, sent by Jon and Littlefinger. That's why the Martells are so rich but the Dornish commoners aren't. Jon was not investigating Cersei to expose her, but to blackmail her for gold, or to blackmail Tywin to forgive the crown's debts to him. That's why he didn't tell Robert the truth even on his deathbed. Jon had problems reproducing so I think little Robbin is Littlefinger's. Jon's first 2 wives also had miscarriages and stillbirths, just like Lyssa, later on. Moon-tea was a common abortificient, most women that used it had no problems in subsequent pregnancies, like Cersei. Jon wed Lyssa because, besides bringing her father's troops, she was a high lord's daughter, young, pretty and proven fertile, and nobody knew she had been sullied besides a few people that would remain silent. Lyssa's miscarriages and stillbirths were not because of moon-tea but because of Jon's defective and now old sperm. Her only surviving child is sickly like Littlefinger was in his childhood, Robbin doesn't resemble Jon or Lyssa or their Tully and Arryn relatives. I wonder if Jon knew or suspected Robbin's true father...
Great observation & analysis!!
@@cliffordrose4335 Thank you!
That does make sense. I've been wondering why Cersei and Jaime didn't actually try to kill Jon Arryn. They are happy and relieved that he's dead, for sure, but I would have expected them to have been the ones to off him for real, like the Starks initially thought. I'm pretty sure Cersei wouldn't have hesitated to kill the man who would have exposed her secret.
wow this is fucking fantastic, top notch eh!
I think the more logical explanation here is that Littlefinger caused this whole mess, not Jon Arryn. He had the motive and the means and it doesnt overcomplicate the storyline.
I definitely agree.
Agreed. I think Aryn may have been somewhat complicit, but not to hurt or undermine Robert. He was investigating the parentage of his children after all. He was working to undermine the Lannisters. He goes to the Martells to cultivate a long haul strategy against the Lannisters. Maybe he threw in with Littlefinger because of their shared Martell connection, and Petyr simply uses the Aryn/Martell plan to serve his own ends. Aryn knows about at least some of Littlefinger's corruption, because how could he not, and might even be party to the amount he knows about so that when he finally finds that silver bullet and enough hard evidence to back it up, Aryn can then frame the Lannisters for the kingdom's woes and use the true parentage of Robert's children to get him to agree with cutting off the Lannisters. Littlefinger's corruption was a means to an end. This ostracization would weaken the wealth, power, and influence of the Lannisters, leaving them vulnerable to attack by the Martells who could then take their revenge more easily without the crown making a fuss over killing the royal in-laws, thereby removing the threat of the Lannisters. With those who worked to subvert Robert's rule in favor of their own dynasty out of the way, Jon Aryn could then go about the business of setting the kingdom's affairs in order. Jon Aryn has already proven that he's willing to break the law in order to do what he thinks is right when he sided with Robert's Rebellion, so it doesn't seem a stretch to think that breaking the law or at least allowing others to break the law would be justified in the end if it meant protecting the realm and Robert's rule from another threat, the Lannisters, in the long run. Aryn just doesn't get to follow through on this plan because Littlefinger no longer had any further use of him and could expand the plan beyond Aryn's intention to hurt the Lannisters by instead instigating the war of five kings. Maybe the only reason Aryn didn't end the Lannisters then and there on his deathbed was because of either the deceptive advice or the interference of Littlefinger? It would certainly be in Littlefinger's interest to somehow dissuade or otherwise prevent Aryn from revealing the truth because he needed mystery and confusion in order to then mislead the Starks about the Lannisters in order to foment the war he wanted.
Littlefinger caused it and Jon Arryn added Littlefinger to the small council. Because his crazy Tully wife told him to.
@@JamesDeBall Its certainly possible, but I dont see how that kind of reveal even becomes possible narratively. All the people who knew Jon Arryn (Ned, Robert, Lysa, etc) are dead so who would this even be revealed to? Maybe Varys and LF meet face to face later on? Idk I just dont see it.
Agree. People so want George to be this super conspiracy theory genius. In reality, sometimes his pantsing world building doesn't really add up. Some people look way too far into this.
This is purely speculative, but I've had suspicions about another sketchy situation potentially involving Jon Arryn- Quentyn's fostering. I know the story is it was brokered by Doran and Lord Ormond to settle Oberyn's blood debt, but that seems odd on several fronts. First, the timing. Oberyn's duel occurred 10 years prior to Quent's fostering. Second, that Quent was the child chosen to foster. Quent wasn't Doran's heir; Arianne was. Shouldn't she, the more valuable child, have been chosen? Ormond's decision to take Quent would be like Ned taking Asha instead of Theon to quell Baelon Greyjoy. In any case, are we to believe that Lord Ormond waited 10 years to settle the blood feud w/House Martell by accepting the spare instead of the heir? That just seems incredibly odd.
Furthermore, we know Quent was fostered at an unusually young age per Westerosi fostering standards. While we don't know Quent's exact age at the time of his "fostering", there are some clues that allow us to make reasonable inferences. According to Arys Oakheart, Quent was fostered at a "tender" age and also served as Lord Ormond's page. The customary age for boys to serve as pages is from 6-7 onwards. We also know Quent's mother Lady Mellario fiercely opposed this; specifically because he was too young. Tender age, too young...I'd say he was sent away between the time he stopped nursing and age 6. Quent was born in 281AC, so it was likely between the years 282AC-287AC. You know what took place during those years? Jon Arryn's trip to Dorne in 284AC. What if, for reasons unknown, Quentyn's "fostering" was just one more thing Jon Arryn brokered during that trip? Quent would've been 3yrs old. That would explain Mellario's fury and Arys describing him as "tender aged". It also makes sense of an otherwise nonsensical explanation...the blood debt settlement was just a cover story which makes enough sense to most people who don't give a fiddle about Dorne and thus wouldn't question it too closely. I'd even argue that if true Doran probably lied to his wife about it because the fewer people who know the truth, the easier it is to maintain the lie. I could be reading too much into it, but nevertheless Quentyn's unusual fostering arrangement has always stood out to me, and I've often wondered if Jon Arryn was somehow involved.
Interesting. But what would jon arryn gain from this maneuver though?
Maybe Jon Arryn was used as a power broker to help settle the deal with Quent, as like Ashley of Naath stated, why would Lord Ormond want anything less than the heir, unless he was a very forgiving man or somehow knew that Doran was going to make Quentyn the heir to Dorne. Either way Jon Arryn would have the "political power" being hand of the king to help Doran finesse this deal with Quent, despite being in Dorne & Jon Arryn might not having as much political influence down there, he still could have very easily made it much much harder on specific areas of Dorne, by cutting off trade to certain areas (there's numerous ways he could have threatened/influenced Lord Ormond.) Also furthering their plans together as if the 3 of them were scheming together I'm sure they would have had specific intentions for doing so.
Its an interesting observation but Ashley of Naath why would the Hand of the King care to concern the Crown in such an intra-Dornish dispute? What is in it for King's Landing or Sunspear? U still lose your wife if you're Doran because U still lose physical custody of either Princess Mellario's son or daughter through no fault of their parents?
@@ssa3101 I have no idea. Like I said, I could just be reading too much into it. It just seems that there's more to Quent's fostering than meets the eye, and almost nothing about it makes sense. Given that there's overlap between it and Jon Arryn's visit, and given the secret arrangements broached in this video, just seems like there could be something there.
@@cliffordrose4335 Thanks. I have a tinfoil theory about it, so keep that in mind. The timing doesn't exactly work, but here goes. I think that after he fled Dragonstone w/Viserys, baby Dany, and his few good men, Willem Darry split the Targaryen heirs to protect the line of succession like we saw happen with Bran and Rickon in ACOK. Viserys was taken to Essos to put the most distance between he and Robert, and Dany was taken to Dorne. I think Jon Arryn found out during his trip and quietly negotiated the "fostering", in truth hostage holding, of Quent to ensure Dorne's future cooperation with the new Baratheon regime. I think he kept the arrangement quiet to save Westeros from another civil war so soon after the rebellion. Or, if you believe Jon Arryn was a more sinister person like the Greenhands do, perhaps it was an opportunity to extort Prince Doran and force his participation in whatever machinations JA was orchestrating. Or maybe a tool to ensure Doran didn't stray from the plans, ensure his silence, etc. Again it's enormously tinfoil but I do think Dany lived a portion of her early life in Dorne.
So, at the beginnings of the series Robert gives the impression that Jon Arryn was healthy one minute and sick the next. Like suddenly a healthy man is not healthy. Is it possible Jon Arryn made the same mistake that Ned makes in trusting Little Finger on the word of a Tully wife only to be betrayed and killed. Perhaps, Jon Arryn trusted Baelish; after all Baelish's whole social climbing method is chaos.
Remember Jon Arryn was also in his seventies him dying of some illness over the course of some months wouldn't even be suspicious, so why poison him with a quick poison when you can gave him something that's less suspicious.
My theory was that after he discovered that Robert legitimate children are actually the Bastard's of Jaime and Cersei, he told that either to Littlefinger or Lysa and they murdered him because of fear that he figures out that Robin is not his.
@@HD-mp6yy This has been my assertion from the beginning.
Littlefinger had Jon killed so he could finish Jon's plan...he and Jon were probably the only two who knew where the $$$ was going,and Petyr Baelish silenced Jon before he could bring up his news about Cersei and Jaime(maybe Jon planned to blackmail Tywin with it). Like when Petyr killed off Dontos to keep him silenced forever. He wanted Jon to shut up like he wabted Ned to shut up. Jon thought he was a player,but was really a pawn.
10:52 To be fair, The Vale and Dorne are two of the most isolated of the 7 Kingdoms, and it is noted that they took precautions. Geography plus the fact that they closed their roads may have been enough to save them. Not saying you're wrong, but this isn't necessarily evidence of a plague conspiracy.
Jon Arryn didn't tell Robert anything because there would be no ASOIAF if he had lol
It's by Arryn's word that we think Aerys ordered the heads of Ned and Robert.
great point !!
But it's something Aerys would do
Yoo thats tue and maesters help craft all the history written too can twist things
ya but there are very few people in asoiaf who full on betray their nature as presented to the reader . in fire and blood its much more ambiguous where character lies , as it is in any of the histories within the narrative of asoiaf proper , but i just see nothin but conjecture to support the idea that jon arryn was anything but a dope fella
It's impossible he didn't know about the Littlefinger creative accounting, tyrion looks at the receipts and he knows something is up. If Jon arryn paid any attention to what was happening around him during 16 years he would have known
It's been a while since I read the books - and I doubt the books go into explicit detail anyway - but the picture I got was that Robert threw way more than two feasts / tourneys a year. It sounded more like anytime he had an excuse to have an escape from his miserable marriage to Cersei.
Littlefinger was embezzling money by hiring ghost employees in the city watch, royal dungeons, etc. He's now got large amounts of capital, and an engineered debt crisis w/the Iron Bank
@@alexandergangaware429 Of course he was. But in the video they acted like having two tourneys a year would be crazy.
@@praetorxyn True. I do think that Lysa, once she gave birth to Sweetrobin, had Jon Arryn wrapped around her little finger, and could get him to go along with all of the schemes Littlefinger (see what I did there) fed through her. Which is especially ironic, since Sweet Bobby A is almost certainly Baelish's kid. He was born like what, a year after Lysa brought Petyr to King's Landing?
@@alexandergangaware429 I think he's Baelish's kid too. I'm not really aware of when he was born etc, but:
1. He has Lirrlefinfer's hair color rather than Lysa or Jon's
2. I'd he was Jon's I don't think Lysa would dote on him nearly as much, nor would he be as sickly
Sweet Robin is interesting as everyone's always talking about how he's going to die any time now, and George R R Martin logic makes that mean he's practically invincible like Bran is.
@@praetorxyn Sweetrobin has psychic (greenseer) powers, which he inherited from his father Petyr, who met the Three-Eyed Crow in his dreams while recovering from his wounds taken dueling Brandon Stark. And who knows what lineage House Baelish really has, given that a) the founder was Braavosi, who are a "mongrel people," and b) we have no information on Littlefinger's maternal descent
As Robert being more and more reticent and cynical about governing the realm the less he listened to Jon Arryn, especially in matters relating to "counting coppers." So I don't really think there was anything weird or sketchy about the Realm being in massive debt despite Jon's advice and him being the "only person Robert listened to." During most of his reign, Robert couldn't care less and wouldn't listen anyway. That was just one of his many personality flaws....
I disagree on "many personalities flaws". We were reading about a man who would have either killed himself or willingly choosing exile if Joffrey wasn't his heir. Enough said. People in this fandom always sell Robert short.
Yes, I just don't see anything that would make me think Arryn was "sketchy." What more can he do to prove this than to challenge the Targaryen dynasty for the sake of his foster children? And then marrying *Lysa* ? Now that is a sacrifice. So he returns some bones to Dorne and talks sense to them: "You can't win. You can make the realm bleed but you will only lose more Dornishmen and Martells in the end." Also, the revenge the Martells want is against Tywin and Gregor, not the entire Baratheon/Arryn/Tully/Stark alliance and now Lannisters (not to mention the Tyrells who will just choose the winning side). It's futile, and we don't need Jon Arryn to tell Oberyn that; Doran will. Patience is the way to go and there's no need for Arryn to be in on it. Hell, the only thing that could motivate such a thing is the murder of Elia and her children. And again, that's on Tywin and his henchmen. *Ned* has more reason to side with Dorne over this than Jon Arryn, as Ned loathes the killing of children. Let's not forget who raised Ned from age 8 to adulthood too. Could Ned really become the man he did without a like father figure to guide him in his formative years?
I think we have to assume that some men are pretty much what they appear to be. Otherwise we end up thinking anyone without a perspective chapter is a schemer or without honor (and some who do have perspective chapters). There must be some honorable men in the realm.
@Lord Alaric Stark I never said he was without personality flaws. I wrote something else entirely and I invite you to read my comment again. Don't you dare put in my keyboard things I never wrote.You presume too much. I never put emotions in my logical process. Unlike many others apparantely I simply notice that the Robert we see were the final embers of a depressed and alone man that hated his life. A life he never wanted. Regarding Sansa and Joffrey what was Robert supposed to do? He was obviously trying to fix his son a little bit. It was his last ditch effort. If the Starks cannot fix him then he is truly a lost cause. As a father he coulnd't give up on him, particularly since Joffrey was the crown prince and future king and he needed to be somewhat fixed. Of couse WE know what happened next but he didnt. All in all yes he had some understandable flaws,so what? He was a man like everyone else, a man in soo much pain that he had to drink as he did to keep it all down to survive day by day. Because for him his life was torment. With all the horrible charachters in this series, people constantly attack Robert without any mercy. Why?Its like they don't understand that this was a man self destructing.He was a tragic charachter.
@@ravenstrategist1325 not to be that person, nut really robert doesn't get nearly as much hate as sansa and cat though. And sansa is just a naive young girl so its understandable that she makes mistakes...
The Rebellion was in the works before Duskendale, and Jon A/Hoster/Rickard were the architects. Hoster had also tried to marry into the Lannisters and Redwynes. If you do the math, it's blatantly obvious and I don't understand how no one brings this up.
I found your channel because we agreed on so much. But this one went right over my head. Now that you mention it OF COURSE! I feel ridiculous for not even noticing. If Arryn were even adequate at his job LF wouldn't have been able to bury the realm in debt.
Also Ned and Robert have a history of trusting bad people. I know you love them, but they constantly put faith in the faithless. Lyanna and Cat to name two.
The way Robert and Ned went on about Jon Arryn, made him way too good to be true.
You guys are great at pointing out where we are just believing things because we were told. But really shouldn't. You make great points for how Jon Arryn is sketchy. I buy that. What was the goal though? Just independence from central rule? Each kingdom for themselves again? As far as his last words. Who says he didn't say or try to do anything else? We only have grand maester Pycelle tell us his words. He was taking care of him. Could have kept him from speaking to anyone other than him. And who trusts Pycelle?
We’re not sure. Which is why it’s only a podcast and not a theory video
It was indeed very likely that Jon Arryn left a cryptic clue in hopes that Pycelle would pass it along but not figure out what it meant? Stannis would seem to have already known, the truth of Cersei's children, so why say anything at all? To provide his voice posthumously for when Stannis returned?
40k gold per tourney x 2 tourneys per year x 17 years of rule = 1.36 million gold total.
Otherwise known as not even close to enough to account for the massive debt
@@TheOrderoftheGreenhand
100%
And that's only show math. It's even less with the book's timeline since it's only 15 years instead of 17.
What do you guys think of the fandom idea that Dorne is the third richest kingdom, via trade with the southern Free Cities?
You should watch their playlist on Doran Martell and you`ll know, also it`s really good
@@hypatiakovalevskayasklodow9195
I’ll do that, thank you!
@Lord Alaric Stark
Aren’t there supposed to be rubies, or other gemstones in the Red Mountains? Or is that fannon?
@@17JosephLC Not in TWOIAF that I could find
I would imagine the vale and Dorner didnt get the sickness for two separate real world reasons. The vale is very easy to shut off to the rest of the seven kingdoms. They did it during the war of the 5 kings afterall. Dorne was a) a foreign country at the time that was also difficult to enter and b) a very hot climate, look at hot countries and their covid numbers vs colder countries and their numbers...
These highlords treated the war of the nine penny kings like a high school cafeteria. You had Tywin and Areys and their friends on one side as the preps and the Starks, Aryns, Tully’s and Baratheon's on the other side as the losers that banned together incase the preps tried to pick on them lol just really noticed that
As for the part that Dorne and the Vale has always been the most active realms trying to break free, I agree with Dorne but the Vale is more complicated because it was more about family rivalry after Aegon the conquerers death than it was a unilateral decision, and also during the Blackfyre rebellion the knights of the Vale and house Arryn specifically paid a heavy price on the red grass field
Remember when Jonos Arryn declared him King it were Vale loyalists who have beaten them back to the Eyrie
I don’t remember which lord Arryn it was but ik that the vale loyalist in the blackfyre rebellion paid a heavy price to keep Daeron on the throne
@@billychops1280 donnel Arryn I think
I think Jon was worse than shady, he was just a bad hand. He's got this whole appeasement vibe. He makes peace with Drone but I'd wager Doran just.said what Jon wanted to hear and no concessions needs made, he kept Jaime in the Kingsguard thinking it appeased Tyson in addition to arranging a marriage to Cersei, the man doesn't push. Even the Small Council is jmostly ust either establishment positions or.nepotism. he doesn't seem to actually investigate anything except the incest. There's no attempt at getting unity from Jon.
Tbf the cersei marrige may have come from a lack of suitable women, remember Lyana is dead, Jon Arryn doesn't have a daughter and I think his sister was Long dead, Hoster Tullys two daughters were also gone, their weren't any Greyjoy women arround we know of and the Tyrells and Martells were his enemies
That kinda leaves cersei as the best match among the great Houses
Nice catch. This kind of thinking outside the box is why I still watch this channel long after I've stopped watching most of the others. I think Jon Arryn might have been one of those individuals who just enjoy secretly sowing discord, like Doran. People just didn't see it in his case because they assumed he was honorable.
Maybe the coin was being funneled to Dorne....a payment for peace?
No amount of gold could possibly placate Oberyn for THAT long when it is essentially a bribe to prevent him from avenging his sister and her children. It had to be more, otherwise not even Doran could've controlled him.
I only saw the title and my answer is ABSOLUTELY. Everything hinges on what the generation before Ned & Robert & Brandon's. They were doing the bidding of their fathers and/or guardians, just like they are the "grown ups" in the story now.
Sketchy as F
These podcasts are great! I miss your content but I can’t listen to 4 hour Q and A’s 😭. Good job and much love
Couple of points to nitpick. On the topic of tournaments, I would imagine the purses are a minority of the cost. Think of the World Cup or the Olympics, those usually end up being a huge financial burden for the hosts and it’s not because of the prize money. Granted the average tourney outside of maybe something like Harrenhall isn’t on that scale, but they could be very expensive, just hosting and feasting all that nobility. Now we know that it wasn’t just tournies that beggared the realm. We know Littlefinger was embezzling a lot of money for instance. Nor does it necessarily excuse Jon Arryn. Just saying you are probably underestimating the financial burden of hosting all those tournaments.
On the subject of why he didn’t just tell the king, I got the sense Arryn had just put it all together and feared the schemers and got out of dodge. To play devils advocate, we know Robert is a rash and violent person, Jon Arryn might have feared that just dropping the truth bomb on him would have even worse consequences than what ended up happening. I figured he died before he figured out what to do with it and left it in Stanis and Ned’s hands to figure it out after his death.
Great content, got me thinking about a character I had never given much thought to and you bring up plenty of other things that do seem shady. Keep up the great content!
Wait..Dont the Olympics and these big international events bring money IN to the host country? Is that not the whole point of nations competing for hosting rights?
Even in Westeros, wasn't there some passing comment about the Hand's Tourney and how every winesink/brothel/pot shop would be FULL from all the additional people in the area?
@@jschoma11 in your example the revenue goes to the brothel keeper not the crown, no?
While I agree the cost of a tourneys is going to be more than just the purse, it's usually the building of mass infrastructure which costs. I doubt tourneys were held in new locations each time, so where people competed and inned wouldn't be a problem. The cost of the feasts would be pretty massive though.
@@realBatman-89 On the smallest scale, yes, but there are taxes paid to the crown by said business owners, gate fees to enter King's Landing, etc.
@@jschoma11 100%. Just what I was thinking . . . good tournaments will bring revenue which the Crown can tax!
Personally I don’t think the prize purses are the expensive part of the tourneys. Like gold medals aren’t the expensive part of the olympics, it’s all the other bullshit you have to do that’s costs a host country billions.
Your dedication to this story is amazing. A lot of good points are brought up here. Any chance you can cover more of this topic? Like, if Jon had many bases possibly covered, could he have been sending the crown's funds to Dorne? With Sweet Robin as his heir, how would he cover his home court? Unless he's sure his bannermen are totally loyal to him.
Tourneys have other expenses than prizes. You have to arrange seating, supplies for the fights (lances are more expensive than you think) accommodation etc. Even so you're right it shouldn't cost more than 1 million [EDIT: in total over Robert's reign]. Also why aren't they recouping at least some of the expense by selling concessions? It's specifically mentioned by LIttlefinger that lots of people make money from the Tourneys. Can't they at least make the pie-sellers and various stall-holders pay something?
At the end of Robert's Rebellion the Lansiter's were too powerful, so Jon told Dorne that if they wait... they can take out all of the Lanister's in one fell swoop
Aryyn knew that House Martell were slavers and could probably get all the other Kingdoms and most of the other Dornish Houses against them if they wanted to keep starting shit, far better to just make peace for the time being and delay. If Arryn didn't tell Robert it's because he didn't want House Lannister to be immediately wiped off the map, which would make a war against the Starks impossible, Arryn's goals seem to align with LF in that instance. Also, perhaps Arryn isn't so much of a player but may fancy himself a player, if LF is smarter we could see actions by Arryn really be orchestrated, or at least influenced by LF for this goals.
Tyrian promised away all the gold in Casterly Rock. I think that’s a set up for irony to play out, it’s going to turn out there’s no gold there. Or the guy he promised it to will die. Either way there’s going to be a twist with that.
Don't we already know Casterly Rock is out of gold?
@@jschoma11 wasn't that just in the show?
I do believe was show only, but maybe George said something to D&D.
@@AwakeAtTheWheel Yeah I'm actually not sure now. I just remember Tywin said it, and his life and death in the show were pretty straightforward from the books. That doesn't mean they didn't write extra lines for show Tywin though.
@@jschoma11 Agreed
I’m almost positive that he would’ve offered independence through the bankruptcy of the realm
For years I thought Jon Arryn was an idiot. Thanks for opening my eyes.
Maybe, Littlefinger is secretly working with Dorne and Jon Arryn. Littlefinger might be arranging to wed Sansa to Aegon, that would unite Dorne, The Vale, and The North against the Lannisters. This could be the second best option since Jon Connington was not able to present Aegon to Daenerys. This channel keeps changing my perspective on the story, cannot wait for the next theory.
I don't think LF knows aboit Aegon. If he did he'd already have Sansa at the pole boat. He's gonna be pissed that Varys pulled off this. Remember Varys had no idea LF was framing Tyrion for Bran or Joffrey. LF and Varys don't tell each other anything.
@@BurkeanMama That is very true. The only way my half baked theory works is if Dorian of Dorne is orchestring the backup marriage.
Okay, this was great. Right up there with the Ser Criston Cole video in terms exposing this kind of thing George does. It's very easy to forget that we really have no reliable narrators in this story. Robert and Ned were with John Arryn at an impressionable age and he was good to them so of course they're looking at him through rose-tinted glasses.
I think the "where did the money go?" Is really important because seriously where did all that money go??? Unless he was hoarding it, it would have popped up somewhere in someone's expenses. I know you guys have pointed out that the Dornish economy is a blackhole. They have very little to trade but the highborn are still looking good in silks and lace. Could John have offered them a pension as part of his appeasement?
Also, if he and Littlefinger were working together then I'm immediately looking at those brothels as money laundering centers.
As a certain Finnish Formula 1 driver would say, "F**king finally!!" I always wanted to hear why you thought Jon Arryn to be sketchy and you've finally released the podcast.
But yeah, we probably aren't ever getting what Jon Arryn offered the Martells which squashed the budding rebellion.
Edit: So let me get this straight. You're suggesting that all the things that led to the rebellion were all part of the Masterplan? But how? Dorne won't rise against the Targaryens, not when their princess is married to the Crown Prince. STAB alliance is usually attributed to the Maester's conspiring to remove the Targs. They got the Lannisters to go against the Targs, Steffon's death puts the 'B' part of the alliance into place as Robert is more likely to side with Arryns and others instead of Targaryens who his father was loyal to. The Martells got on the Targaryen's side due to marriage and had nothing against the Lannisters until Elia's death. So what was the Endgame? Killing Rickard & Brandon can't possibly be influenced by Jon Arryn or Doran as they were nowhere close to the KL to influence Aerys 2. LF wasn't a courtier back then he's influencing nobody while recuperating. How do they kickstart the rebellion if what lead to it (Stark deaths) wasn't even influenced by Jon Arryn and Doran? Jon Arryn, if he was in Team Martell then why would LF kill him when he is Doran's creature as you suggest? Doran is currently planning Lannister destruction but what was his plan before that?
Too many questions for me but I still understand why Jon Arryn was sketchy, to a considerable extent.
Love chilling in the Wolf's Den..
Pretty sure it was Littlefinger, not Jon Arryn, who bankrupted the realm.
the thing that sold me is littlefinger hired the assassin for bran.
jon arryn was trying to exterminate all the magic bloodlines. stark have north magic, baratheons have targ blood, easily could have conspired with the dornish. andal-roynar alliance
Love your videos, this podcast was awesome! BTW, playing 'devil's advocate', so-to-speak, is there another possible theory? What if Arryn couldn't call for anyone on his death bed because of the effect of the drugs killing him? Or, what if his advanced age caused him to have some form of dementia? I love the idea of him being more of a player, but what if that wasn't the case? What if he traveled to Dorn and the Dornish were surprised that their plans were so obvious and decided to go more sneaky and simply just let Arryn think he did a good job of convincing them? Just throwing ideas out, please don't hate. Love you guys!!!!
What about Littlefinger’s family coming from Braavos. Connection to Iron Bank. Also the marriage pact between Arianne and Viserys took place in Braavos.
Favourite most mind blowing theory!
People keep saying that the Cersei-Robert marriage was a good idea, why? It doesn't ensure Lannister loyalty to Robert, Tywin and Jaime's actions did that. The Lannisters are in the weakest position if the Targaryens come back. Other houses rose in rebellion and could expect to be punished, but the Lannisters literally stabbed their King in the back and murdered members of the Royal family. Unlike other Houses that at least have solidarity with each other, nobody likes the Lannisters. The Houses that were loyal don't like them because they were treacherous. The houses that rebelled remember the Lannisters sitting back and doing nothing while they bled and died.
They even sacked King's landing, which was totally unnecessary and alienated the smallfolk. Tywin could simply have said "OK, when we enter the city, only attack enemy soldiers, no raping, no theft, or you hang.". It's not impossible to take a city without sacking it. Brutality towards the occupants usually only happened when the troops were angry at unreasonable resistance, which KL didn't provide. Now obviously some crime will occur, there are thousands of soldiers and some of them are just nasty pieces of work to stupid to realize Tywin means it. But hanging even a few of these makes a valuable point, that the people of KL weren't the enemy, the Targaryens were. So Tywin the "genius" made another enemy for no reason.
So the Lannisters options are a) ensure that the Baratheon line continues to rule and likes them, b) ensure the Baratheon line continues and don't bother getting them to like you and c) die in a fire. If the Targaryens come back they die in fire, there's no debate, there's no question, you stabbed daddy, eat Dragonfire. But surely even if they're committed (for their own interests) to maintaining Baratheon rule, Robert still needs them to be onside with his policies right? No. Again, the Lannisters have alienated lots of people and acting against them will please those people, while the Lannisters will sit there and take it. Why? Because they have no other option. It's a strong Baratheon dynasty or the fire. Tywin understands this which is why he keeps "lending" the Crown money even though he despairs of getting it back. The Lannisters have power only because Jon Arryn was stupid enough to give it to them.
I always found that MF weird. Cause you would think the man Ned held in high regard would say something about Roberts behavior regarding how he handled the babies.
Or George forgot how much he said they were in debt and the writing was bad at some point lol
I'm glad you're doing video about Jon Arryn. What a weirdo. 💙
I'm not sure about this one. Whatever might've been up with him Jon Arryn he had a reputation as an honorable man to an extent that is rivaled only by Ned. Ned was also pretty much raised by Jon Arryn. Stannis even trusted him and we know he doesn't trust easily. As for not telling Robert about Cersei and the kids. It could very well be that like Ned he wanted to find a way to handle the situation that would spare the children perhaps even giving them to Tywin to placate him over what's about to befall Cersei and Jamie. Also I can't see a situation in which almost all his immediate family is imprisoned and under threat of execution and Tywin just meekly accepts this state of affairs. To quote a point Littlefinger made to Ned, "Do you really expect Lord Tywin to sit idly by while his children and grandchildren's heads are fitted for spikes?"
I'm not sure Jon Arryn knew about Lysa's pregnancy. I got the impression from Hoster Tully's delirium that it was a secret; if not then there was no reason for the moon tea to be drunk. If he knew and accepted the fact he would have agreed to keep the child and raise it... instead Lysa was forced to drink a concoction that probably made it harder to bear a living child. Jon Arryn was taking no risk because a High Lord would not under most circumstances marry a woman considered soiled.
do we ever hear how jon arryn reacted to hearing about the dead targyen childern in kings landing? is it possiblie that he had the same comapssion about dany and viserys that ned did?
Unless he was just the only sane and non-corrupt voice that just got ignored and was trying and failing to hold everything together by a thread (which is so much less interesting), perhaps he was doing potentially shady stuff for what he thought were good reasons, just like how he committed treason to the Targaryans? Just spitballing, but perhaps he encouraged the marriage to Cersei just to keep the realm together out of immediate political convenience, to take advantage of Lannister wealth and to establish a hard-won peace, but then proceeded to try to undermine the kingdom to keep Tywin and his brood away from power so Robert's dynasty wouldn't be subverted in the long run. Perhaps after seeing what they did in the sacking of King's Landing, he knew the Lannisters were ambitious and ruthless and would try to undermine Robert's new kingdom for their own dynasty. I don't see him trying to do whatever he may have been doing with the goal to hurt Robert, someone who was like one of his own sons. If he really had so little regard for Robert and was willing to leave him out to dry, he wouldn't have fostered him, raised him well, or participated in the rebellion. Perhaps he was trying to create a scenario that would allow Robert to peace out like he kinda always wanted anyway, or maybe it was to get him less back-stabby/shady inlaws once the Lannisters served their purpose. The realm needed the Lannisters at the time, and to save face, they needed to be compensated for their role in the victory defeating the Mad King, but they weren't going to be good for the realm in the long run as I think the story as it happens clearly shows. Get the Martells to hold off on taking revenge in order to end the mass bloodshed and eatablish some level of stability, and tell them to prepare for the opportune moment down the line, which Oberyn does by gathering his children. Aryn could then bring in Littlefinger, knowing he was corrupt, ambitious, and friendly with his partner, the Martells allowing his mischief to a certain extent in order to serve the greater plan. Perhaps Aryn knew everybody on the council were foxes in the hen house, but he would allow it to a certain extent only for a time to serve his goal of getting rid of the Lannisters. Let's hypothosize that he knew that Robert's children weren't his own much either since that's something the Hand should have known, or at least that he was digging for dirt since day one and only recently found the hard evidence he was seeking. Regardless, he was always scheming against the Lannisters from the beginning and just needed the silver bullet with enough hard evidence to sell Robert on the idea that the in-laws were the liability and were responsible for the kingdom's woes. With enough emotional incentive to get rid of the Lannister lot, why would Robert care to investigate the truth of the Kingdom's finances when he never cared to bother with the details before anyway? As things gradually deteriorated, this weakening of the realm would be extra fuel to the fire that he could use to lay blame on the Lannisters to get Robert to believe that getting rid of them wasn't just satisfying for his own ego, but that it would be in the best interest of the realm as well. If Jon Aryn found out Cercei was having Jaime's kids earlier than we think, he could have even used this tidbit of juicy info to entice Littlefinger onto his side or to keep him there, or at least so he thinks. With the Lannisters on the out with the crown, this would weaken the Lannisters' wealth, power and influence which would present an easier and greater window of opportunity for Oberyn Martell to finally take his revenge without causing too much of a fuss for killing the royal in-laws. In short, Jon Aryn and the Martells conspire to frame and get rid of the Lannisters, the Martells as payback for King's Landing, Jon Aryn to get rid of a dangerous partnership that would try to take power for themsleves. Littlefinger is enlisted by Aryn because of their shared connection with the Martells to stir up trouble in the realm. Aryn would frame everything on the Lannisters which he would sell to Robert by exposing the true nature of his children's parentage. Robert would ostracize the Lannisters from the realm, and the Martells could get their satisfaction against a weakened and exposed Lannister House without interference from the crown in an easy clean up, the Lannisters no longer threatening Robert's rule. Aryn can then go about the business of Hand to set the kingdom's affairs in order again without internal threats. What undermines the whole plan, however, is that Littlefinger isn't to be trusted, and Jon Aryn gets stabbed in the back by Littlefinger and Lysa before the trigger can be pulled because Littlefinger wants to turn the Aryn plan on its head for his own benefit. Do we know that Jon Aryn deliberately didn't summon Robert to tell him the truth? How do we know that Littlefinger either advised against revealing it so soon or that he interfered with an attempt to do so? Littlefinger could sell the idea to the Starks that it was the Lannisters who killed Jon Aryn because he knew Aryn's plan, so in classic manipulative form, Littlefinger used a grain of truth to spin a web of lies that would decimate more than just the Lannisters as perhaps Jon Aryn originally intended. This would kind of provide a narrative symmetry in that Aryn meets his demise for the same reason Ned does, because they trust the wrong man with secret plans to combat the Lannisters. Mqybe even the corruption was worse than Jon Aryn was lead to believe by Littlefinger because the extent of the corruption was hidden in plain sight? Maybe Aryn didn't intend to cause as much harm as he and Littlefinger did, and Petyr used Jon's knowledge of and complicity in some of his corruption in order to hide the rest of it in plain sight, again, twisting Jon Aryn's plan for his own personal goals and enruchment while feigning loyalty until Jon Aryn was no longer of use. Oberyn eventually comes up to King's Landing when he does to finally do what he always intended because his partner in crime, the reason he waited so long and stood down when he did, had been removed from the chess board prematurely. He arrives impatient and eager to finally get answers and take his revenge even though he is the one who waited so long in the first place because the original Aryn/Martell conspiracy fell apart, so now it was just back to plan A.
Alternatively, perhaps Jon Aryn was more ideologically driven and was working against Robert's rule, not to hurt him personally, but so that somebody who had no distant Targ relations would ascend the Iron Throne instead, thereby affording Robert the freedom he desired, perhaps. They fought a rebellion to overthrow the Targs only to put Robert on the throne because he had distant Targ family in his bloodline and therefore had the best claim to rule? I get it, but I could see more partisan individuals asking themselves why anyone should care about the closest claim in the line of Targaryan succession after everything they went through to erase the Targs or the need to have any consideration for the line of succession in the first place. Perhaps the goal was to correct a perceived error by establishing a clean break from the former dynasty.
I'm still kinda new to ASOIAF, and certainly don't know the lore or Jon Aryn, as much as anyone on this channel, and I certainly don't think I have a firm memory of the timeline of events, but does any of this sound remotely plaisible? It was the best idea I came up with that could harmonize both views of Jon Aryn as both a good man with honorable intentions and someone worthy of suspicion for playing dirty under the table for his own aims.
Tells why Jon arryn is sketchy while showing a sketch of Jon arryn
that’s actually really interesting and i didn’t even know i did that ! lol
Imo he had to be offering the Martells the Lannisters. It's the only thing they wanted
Well, there happens to be much more spending then Robert’s tourneys... and I believe there are more then 2 annual:
-King‘s Landing and the Red Keep had to be repaired after the Rebellion
-The entire Royal Fleet had to get rebuilt
-Expensives to defeat the Greyjoy Rebellion
-Robert was very generous, so donations to loyal Lords and his court is also constantly filled with applicants
-I‘d say at least 6-7 tourneys a year in KL; 1 to each of their 5 family name days, several to the victory, coronation, marriage etc. and of course jubilees
-I‘d guess Cersei‘s lifestyle isn‘t cheap and Tywin won‘t pay for it anymore 😂
-Armour and horses for him, Joffrey and Tommen... and i guess getting more and more fat creates the need of several newer armour and other clothes
-Prostitutes & Hunting will also create its bills over 1.5 decades, especially as often Robert does both
Of course this is all just as hypothetical as the next theory 😅
Question has George confirmed that it was arys that called for rob and neds heads? Could it be possible that either the maesters, or Jon Arryn himself, could have forged/made up the order to spark a rebellion, as without the north or the storm lands on his side the crown would only have the reach, and an iffy west and an iffier dorn.
But wasnt the court including jaime, around when arys called for ned after killing brandon?
As cool as all these little connections to other theories are... Jon Arryn just seems to be that Richard Neville Count of Warwick figure in a Song of Ice and Fire... the talented politician and general that just isn‘t A tier material when it comes hinter throne, but good enough to influence/control said material (Robert) and seized the opportunity... but ultimately, fails doing so cause his protégée, as soon as sitting on the throne, just doesn‘t listen and follow as he did before... Jon & Robert resembling very much Warwick and Edward IV. in that way, just without fighting each other in the end
As for Dorne, I think it was clear that they stood alone against Robert’s rebellion and that rising for Viserys would just get more Martells killed, so Doran began plotting his revenge.
I think that the problem here is that you’re viewing Jon Arryn through his “sons’” eyes, many people view their fathers as these hyper-competent founts of honour and wisdom, we mainly know Jon through Ned who was basically his son and so we know him this way. What’s likely is not that he was malicious or “sketchy” but that he wasn’t as competent as Ned and Robert thought he was, so he was manipulated by Littlefinger and Varys.
So glad to see the return of theories
Been waiting for this one.
This video made me wonder what really Arryn's words "the seed is strong" mean. Maybe he was talking about seeds of coming war and chaos, if that was really his plan.
Does it say that Jon even talked to Oberyn on the subject? I feel it most likely that Doran was the one talking Oberyn down. It just doesn't make sense that he would begin and play a major role in a rebellion and then immediately plan to get the people he overthrew back on the throne. I can follow, maybe he was with the faith and maesters to overthrow Targs... But to what end would you then plan to get them back?
Maybe because he realized robert was a lousy kind anyway? Thats the only thing i can think of.
As far as the spring sickness not affecting those two places: my thoughts are that they are more isolated communities and may have had significantly less contact with the infectious particle. Maybe.
he took a Nortman's son and raised him to be an Andal.
I truly appreciated this podcast. I listened to it several times.
I never saw Jon Arryn in that light, and it makes so much sense!
Okay, I’m trying not to gush like an elderly fan-boy, but I really like your work. I’ve listened to you on your channels and as a guest on other people’s programs. As an Army veteran, I especially appreciated your takes on the battle strategies.
Got me thinking that Jon Arryn got Robert to borrow the money without the intent of paying it back. He had the plot rolling to look into the Lannister’s and his meeting with drone like “ yeah we will deal with them soon.”. I think they were intentionally taking money from the Lannister’s and when shit hits the fan with them you just disarmed one of the Lannister’s biggest weapons, mooooney.
Hello orderofthegreenhand, I have done the due diligence and can earnestly submit to Mary Ellen's point (Did Prince Doran just let the Targaryen kids beg around the Free Cities?) that the Prince of Dorne likely had a secret deal to care for them at the really reclusive residence with a red door & lemon tree in High Hermitage. I'm talking about his Dragonstone decoy deal with her Grace ~ Queen Rhaella & Ser Willem
He “finds out” about Cersei and he tells the man that would benefit the most from that: Stannis.
A more plausible theory seems to be that Robert “came of age” and into what he truly considered maturity when he became king, thus his refusal to listen to Jon, a man he once seen as a father figure. Sometimes, immediate adulthood comes with a need to prove to know better than your parental figures. Jon was good advisor, yet the person he listened to least because he had the fatherly image. Parental rebellion is a common trait amongst humans, even when a child has a good role model.
Makes a LOT of sense! There's no way if Jon Arryn was the man Ned and Robert thought he was that he'd let Robert's reign turn to sh**
Also the news of Cersei, Jamie and the kids being seized is going to be explosive. Word of these events will reach Casterly Rock long before any summons especially thanks to Pycelle. Ravens will fly, a Faceless Man will contracted to do away with Robert. The Golden Company, The Second Sons and of course the Brave Companions will all be sent receive a golden invitation to come carve as much you can from the hide of the Seven Kingdoms and earn a King's ransom from the Lannisters for this escapade of self enrichment. While those storms are gathering a raiding force under The Mountain will be sent to burn as much of The Reach as possible. So yeah Tywin could do a lot of damage and I think he would if the situation was that drastic. He could probably martial enough of his forces to make a beeline for the capitoll with a force that could take the city Especially if the Reach is having to scramble its forces while there lands burn and mercenaries come pouring in. With Robert dead and Stannis Dragonstone I like Tywin's chances.
Hmm, i agree with every thing else, but are you insinuating that tywin could get stannis to go against his brother and not get back at him just because stannis would be the next in line? Completely unlike stannis.
Okay... you are right... coming up with some theory that would explain Jon Arryn's actions is not easy... but there are some pieces. We learn that Jon agreed with Ned about NOT killing the Targaryens who got away - Viserys and Daenerys. He likely had a similar grudge against the Lannisters. One thing that strikes me is all the Lannister occupation of the Red Keep and Kings Landing. Is there any chance the Martel's had lots of Martel guards in Kings Landing or the Red Keep who might have been implicated in the Lyanna "abduction"... OR in the original discussions on overthrowing the Mad King and replacing him with Rhaegar? I can't see how it would all work together... other than Dorne had their OWN reasons for not wanting to bring everything out into the light...
If Jon Arryn told the Martells that part of the plan if to bankrupt the Lannisters first, might be a reason Dorian waited as long as he did. Also the fact that Casterly Rock has mined zero gold means it was working. Just took a while.
Jon Arryn, probably wanted to get his only son out of Kings Landing before telling Robert. Got his son set up to be fostered with Stannis rather than Tywin (so not to be a hostage). Once his son was out of Kings Landing then got to Robert and let chaos start with Lannisters going to war with the crown. I don't blame the guy for helping his family first before going to the king... As he is not certain how he would react.
What if Jon Arryn was poisoning The Mad King, driving him mad? The only true heir is Viserys Targaryen. I smell Tywin Lannister all over this.
If Jon Arryn were sketchy, Stannis would have sensed it. Stannis seemingly trusted Arryn, so that is a huge vouch for his character.
Why wouldn't Barristan tell Ned if the council just lied to his face about Arryn giving unheeded advice to Robert?
My only problem is why didn't Stannis take Jon to task? They were actually working together until Arryn's demise.
It might just be me, but for several reasons it makes NO sense for Aerys to demand that Jon Arryn just kill his 2 wards, no matter who they are. Aerys would have sent people to get those kids if he actually wanted them-no warning in advance. It's way too much to type here, but there's good reason for Jon Arryn to pretend that he was ordered to murder his 2 teenage wards or at least be fooled into thinking he was being ordered by the mad king. Whether he knew or was fooled, the end results are the same.
My question is what did Stanis? He and Ranley were both on the council.
Never tought about this but makes much sens.
I think the issue with Jon Arryn is that we hear most of his praises from Ned, who is biased, sentimental and hasn't seen him as long as Robert. Jon controlled Robert as a youth and Robert forever had a sort of reverence for his father figure BUT Robert was King. It is clear later that Robert is not used to being disobeyed or challenged, Ned just didn't see that evolution.
Also, the Dorne thing is way overthought. Jon Arryn brought Prince Lewyn's bones as peace offering and Doran played the tune he wanted to hear. Doran knew that Dorne was not in a position to take on 6 Kingdoms right then, after losing thousands of men at thr Trident. Doran let himself be appeased. And Oberyn is a hot head but he still listens to his brother- his Lord. So Oberyn leaves Doran to his plots and goes off to Essos to let off some steam. Doran also knew that Viserys and Daenerys were safe with the Sealord of Bravos (he signed the betrothal agreement for Arianne and Viserys, so makes sense that he was housing the children). Then Willem Darry died, and there was new Sealord, not interested in Targaryen restoration, and the power changeover was chaotic and violent and quick... the children was gone before the news reached Doran. And then Vis and Dany were hiding on the streets or being short term guests before having to run and hide again. It wasn't until Illirio found them that they had a level of permanence in their lives. But by then, Illirio and Varys had their own plans for them, and Viserys was unhinged and clearly with the same lack of reverence for Dornish as Aerys.
LML and Gray brought me here. This dude sounds like Dan Carlin. I like it.
Renly was ALWAYS like that, though, because Donal Noye mentions it to Jon at the Wall in the first book. He WASHINGTON Rd paramount of the Stormlands so, I don't think he was stealing. JA DID buy that really nice suit of armor for his squire RIGHT before he died..although, I think Lysa bought the armor.
Never thought about it because he died at the start of story always saw him as a throw away character guess I should of know better
Iv always assumed Varys played a major role in negotiations with Dorne we know very little about his activities during that period and he’s from Lys where the martell family has extremely deep connections! The way Varys had a hand in the death of both Tywin and Kevin Lannister and especially the way he stood and delivered to Kevin during his assassination
@orderofthegreenhand
Back in 2023. I've been thinking about this lately:
Robert's Rebellion should really have been called Jon's Rebellion.
Robert got the train rolling with his initial victories but it was Jon that denied the Mad King and raised his banners first.
Which makes me wonder.... Did Jon Arryn not want to sit the iron throne? What if Jon is of the kind that Westeros is better off without them iron throne (a central king)?
@TheOrderoftheGreenhand
So I've tried putting myself in Job Arryn's shoe's, considering what he had and hasn't done, I think his thought process comes down to this:
1. Robert is a great warrior, but I don't think he wants to sit the iron throne, although it seems everyone Else thinks he should take since he defeated Rhaegar. Hell clearly need my help.
2. F**k! Tywin Lannister, who sat out most of the war and has the healthiest army, who basically joined in when he saw who was gonna win, is pushing his daughter on Robert. For real? Ok, not the time for another war, but that slimy prick is gonna pay.
3. Hey Doran, Oberyn, I know you guys are pissed, but you should know Robert was no where near Kings landing when Elia died, and here are the facts. Tywin, the mountain, Amory Lorch. If you can wait, we'll bleed Tywin Lannister dry first. Being father in law to the king will cost him dearly.
4. Heeey Little finger, you're good with numbers...I'm gonna need your service in kings landing, me and some friends down South need to fill some coffers off the books. Cut yourself, but make things seem legit for the rest of the council. Robert doesn't have a head for numbers, but I don't need anyone else running to him either.
5. Robert is having waaaaay too many bastards. His seed is strong, some look just like him, unlike his legitimate kids.... Wait..... STANNIS!
I'm here to submit that Ser Willem Darry did not originate the secret marriage deal for King Viserys & Princess Arianne as he lacked the social standing to even gain an audience with the Prince of Dorne or Sealord of Braavos. It was her Grace who originated the deal & Ser Willem was her proxy post mortum. We know that Dragonstone & Sunspear were corresponding so was there also a deal between them to hide Viserys in a false identity if a suitable one could be selected & trained from the seeds of Dragonstone village? Means, motive & opportunity right? Her Grace had months to plan and Prince Doran was the eldest child of her former Lady-in-Waiting so she must have been familiar with him right? The false Baratheon Princess Myrcella had a royal decoy so why not the genuine Prince Viserys . . . last legacy to House Targaryen?
You also should not forget yearly taxation and that Cersei probably got the biggest dowry out of any bride in the realm. They probably spent around 10 Million dragons. Imagine some bureaucrats telling the president that his predecessor spent 10 trillion dollars on parties and wine.
I find it funny that John Arryn didn't communicate with The North the entire time he was in KL. And his wife is the Lady of the North.