What if the Russian Military Rebels Against the Kremlin?
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- เผยแพร่เมื่อ 23 ก.ค. 2024
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A #Russia without #Putin is the West's greatest dream. But it does not seem that his regime is close to collapse even if the war in #Ukraine is not developing as the Kremlin would like it to. However, something similar already happened in Russia a century ago. So today we ask: What do Tsarist Russia and Putin's Russia have in common? Could the war in Ukraine provoke a regime collapse like the one that led to the revolution of 1917?
![รวมเพลงลูกทุ่ง 6 หนุ่มไทบ้าน ฮิตติดกระแส ชุดที่ 1 l มนต์แคน ไมค์ ไผ่ เสถียร ไหมไทย พี [Longplay]](http://i.ytimg.com/vi/GD2v1OjMw5I/mqdefault.jpg)
In 1939 the population of the Soviet Union was 170.6 million. When the Soviet Union collapsed the population was 290 million. Today's Russia only has 144 million. The loss of the satellite states and declining birth rates have caused the population to shrink. Now, with so many young people leaving, the demographic decline of Russia is inevitable (unless something major changes). The future of Russia is not a positive one if autocrats like Putin stay in power. Regardless, I don't see anyone in the Russian military having the courage or drive to oppose Putin. Someone in the military might appear to oppose Putin if the war drags on for years.
"Now, with so many young people leaving, the demographic decline of Russia is inevitable " not that different from Ukraine or whole Europe.
@@ligametis That's true. But theoretically, there is an opportunity here. When the war is over, many fled Russians will not have much to return to. Russia wil be in ruins, and it is unlikely that someone better is ruling Russia. Europe should make it possible to integrate them in the EU, what should not be difficult if the notion that they are young professionals is true. Europe will get a boost in the demographics, and Russia will stay down for the next generation to come. Win-win imo.
@@ligametis
Europe has positive net migration in the hundreds of thousands every year. You can't even basic facts straight.
@Joe Campbell Most of the west is also very old and have even lower natality rate than that of Russia, this also include other american allies such as Japan and South Korea who have the oldest people with lowest natality rate in the world.
@@ligametis European demographics actually benefits from immigration. Russia and Ukraine don't benefit from this, but things can change if Ukraine gets closer to Europe. After the war is over, it will need to import cheap labor for the massive reconstruction effort.
China and Japan are two other countries with ageing populations and shrinking demographics. Their policy is to close themselves off from immigration to maintenir a homogeneous population.
The first rule is you can not predict a total revolution but you can see when the chances for one are rising.
The second rule is not to talk about the revolution.
@@blueshorecreative3146 xD
Another big difference between 1917 and today is that the state security apparatus is many, many orders of magnitude larger and more omnipotent today than it was in the Czar's time.... and it was pretty big then too.
The problem with Putin is that he has such a vast and varied array of rich and powerful people whose fortunes are tied to him so if Putin falls, they fall so they will do whatever it takes to keep him in power. These are what you could call his multiple and overlapping layers of defense.
If you can somehow get to them and drive a wedge between them and Putin.... by starting to seize their fortunes held in foreign banks, let's say, as opposed to just freezing them.... they may turn on him to save themselves. Even that wouldn't be without risk as there's no way to predict who or what would replace him.
There is no problem with Putin. Your wanton theft of Russian assets has revealed your true face.
@@andreimoutchkine5163 Good. Deal with it.... troll!
@@hughjass1044 Thief
@@THEROOT1111 Relax, monkey! Nobody is seizing fortunes "right and left." It's a thing that would be done to very specific people/entities for very specific reasons and would require legislation and approval from the courts to do. All you'd need to do is show that it was tied to criminal activity and there's mountains of evidence that it has been.
It's also a pretty common tactic to fight criminal activity from persons both in and out of a country so there's lots of precedent for it.
As far as that red herring of "trust" goes, seizing the assets of criminal activity would actually increase trust from reputable people so the only ones you'd be driving away would be the undesirables. Britain has learned this already... the hard way.
@@THEROOT1111 I've been saying the same thing. The West has already severely undermined the trust into its financial system / very concept of "first class" FX reserve.
Unfortunately, I don't think this will happen in the near future. The problem is that as soon as any opposition is detected, the people will be placed in jail.
Yea government control is stronger than it ever has been and Russians I think don’t want drama either.
have you seen the recent protests in China?
@@TheMinipasila no
@@TheMinipasila The protests in China can still be crushed by the army. The army is still loyal to the regime. Remember what happened in Tiananmen Square in 1989?
You mean like they do in Germany and the Baltics? Nope. Russia is still a relatively free country.
To make a change in today’s Russia, is like to make a successful uprising in prison.
russian prison
STEP 1: SECURE THE KEYS
@@jxfwliz5ldnheeg Yes, the future is uncertain.
Prison uprisings DO happen. Just very difficult.
Ah yes VisualPolitik
The only channel who's video's you have to watch at 0.75 speed
Well with casualties mounting, especially when Russian soldiers dying of cold, diseases and hunger. I think Putin will lose more and more support. Question is how long can he hold out
Alas I do not think, putin has a tight grip on the army the government and society , prefers people loyal to him than capable ones ( one of the many reasons they are terrible in Ukraine) and thus he has no problem just throwing more warm bodies to the problem , no matter how many soldiers die society will not revolt, the generals leading his army are loyal to putin
@@Heretus I am not talking about general's
@@jantschierschky3461Nor was I referring to generals only , seems that the entire Russia society across all levels and aspects are under firm control of Putin loyalist , time will tell
@@Heretus we will see
Putin can hold out for as long as he can keep sending boys to die in Ukraine.
I live in Israel, it's real, a few weeks ago, I met an actual Russian 23 year old young man that took the opportunity to move here to escape draft.
I am one of that men. There is 60k new repatriats from Russia in Israel. Absorbation centers are overcrowded.
Ironic: I bought tickets to Israel, 18 hours later I arrived to closed jewish town in Palestine (Samaria/Judea), surrounded by arab villages, and my first thought was - "finnaly, I am safe now".
@@chatnoir1224 afraid to die, not afraid to kill.
@@rutgerb half of my family are ukrianians. Some of them are fighing in territoral defence units. There is no way I would accept mobilization and fight my blood. So it was either jail or Israel.
@@chatnoir1224 Good for you. Glad that you made a great decision to not help a horrific regime destroy another country and to help them killing theirs and yours. All for their need for more power for themselves. Stay safe and please help Spread the word to stop the senseless war.
Slava Ukraine, 💪🇺🇦💙🇺🇸
it's funny someone go a country that has mandatory military service for every man and women to escape draft
There’s almost no Russian army left to rebel. 😂😅
Super podcast. Thank you. Douglas
Most of the comments seem to be missing the point entirely. If the army simply refuses to fight any more, then there's literally *nothing* that Putin's government can do about. The security services can suppress civilian protests but they can't suppress thousands of armed soldiers. The power of the government in Russia (in fact of any state) is entirely contingent on the loyalty and obedience of the armed forces. It's precisely for this reason that Stalin purged the army. If this breaks down, then some kind of power shift is inevitable, and it *will* happen eventually if the war continues. Morale is dangerously low among the Russian forces in Ukraine already and Putin's ability to prevent it getting lower is extremely limited.
Yeah not a good situation. Being in a cold muddy trench while hypothermia sets in will surely do wonders for moral.
Don't count on it. Putin's army still has punishments and families at home that can be used for blackmail. The FSB will be bolstered too, terror is what he knows !
In wartime, nothing is impossible. War is inherently chaotic and chaos almost by definition is impossible to predict. At some point, the populace will reach a tipping point and Putin will find it difficult to govern. Or I should say 'may' and 'may' when I said 'will'?
Yeah. "May". I agree, schtuff happens, especially in war. It's anybody's guess when the soldiers who round up protesters decide they've had enough.
I keep thinking, if one of these Яepublics wanted to secede, now would be a good time, cuz the army is occupied, demoralized, and weak. Or, if China or Mongolia, or even Kazakstan, wanted to seize some Яepublics, now would be a good time. Or, if some large superpower wanted to invade Vladivostok, russia's main port on the pacific, now would be a good time - the army is now 9 timezones away.
They'd probably need guns and ammo for that. Lol
You think that’s hard to come by in Russia?
>army is poorly prepared and coordinated
>army starts a mutinity and turns on putin
>army can't fight because it's poorly prepared and coordinated
5D chess
Nice work !
"History doesn't repeat itself. But it does rhyme."
Samuel Langhorn Clemens
Mark Twain.
I think military and Putin are together. They will go down together.
I don't who did the intro flipbook animation but I honestly watched 10 times. Thank you, I almost forgot the world was ending.
Only Pootin's world !
A major defeat like in Karkiv with the casualties far too high to be able to truly hide from the public is they only way at the moment to see a military mutiny. At least from the conscripts who would survive such a defeat and turn their anger on the idiots running their section of the front.
You talked like you're being chased by KGB, slow down my man.
Thats how videos are done in this channel. You must talk fast otherwise people see like you are wasting time
Just set video speed to 0.75. then he speaks perfectly normal. Pretty sure they speed up the original Video intentionally
The Russian system is too confusing to predict where a revolutionary or evolutionary tipping point will emerge.
When he said brilliant in a sentence ithought an ad was coming lol!
For what happened this year such a shame
I wanted to visit Russia 🇷🇺 as a tourist
It has such a rich and colourful history 🤦🏻♂️😔
you can always visit Ukraine that have even older and more interesting but sad history
@@bouilu7519 Быть туристом в Украине прямо во время войны не самая лучшая идея в твоей жизни.
"History doesn't repeat itself, but it often rhymes." - Mark Twain
the teeth whitening is working, a price of being one of the best video guides. The history is excellent, the visuals are good. Sorry, just beer-assisted honesty
Can't unsee the teeth
Alas, the odds of that happening are painfully small.
It's hard to focus on the video because all I see is the YEEEELLLLLOOOOOOOOOOOOWWW.
7:44 Can anyone tell me where this music is from or what it’s called?
Anyone know where you can get a t-shirt for VisualPolitik?
As with any nation, revolution is never impossible. It is merely improbable. In Putin's case, conscripting the able-bodied fighting men of the peripheral republics ensures that he retains a monopoly on the use of force. If the periphery started to rebel, Putin would have to send troops far from the front lines to enforce order. Obviously, his offensive in Ukraine cannot afford such distractions. But an army overrepresented by these regions risk losing control over the army should such a distraction arise. So the horrific solution is to put these men on the front lines ill-trained and ill-equipped as cannonfodder. It's the kind of brutal calculus that only an authoritarian regime like Putin's would contemplate.
What Putin has not accounted for is the extreme vulnerability of his oil and gas exports to rural discontent. The Russian economy is on the ropes and the only reason it hasn't collapsed already is the steady sale of oil and gas. But pipelines, railroads, wells, and refineries are seldom found in urban areas. If the peripheral peoples choose to rebel, the best solution they have is to sabotage unarmed equipment for vital export infrastructure. Putin cannot afford the manpower to fight an insurgency in these remote corners of Russia, so imagine the challenge of trying to secure thousands of miles of pipelines, thousands of well sites, etc from rogue citizens whether or not they are organized. Such actions would cripple the Russian economy and under those circumstances an urban revolt could become possible. In short, with or without men of fighting age, the peripheral republics have more power over Putin than he has over him. All that stands between Putin and revolution is for these people to realize this fact and for enough of them to act on that realization. 21st century Russia doesn't need a rural revolution to end Putin. They just need a few rural lone wolves poking holes in his economic armor to bring him down.
@Han Boetes I would be skeptical of anyone who claims to know how that would end. It does strike me as unlikely that it would lead to a free and open democracy, but that doesn't guarantee that it will be another dictator. Given the current state of affairs, it might not even remain one nation. In which case the whole spectrum of possible outcomes may be realized. The story of Russia is far from over and I suspect there are more than few plot twists waiting for us in the years ahead.
Everything is improbable, very few few things are actually impossible. The fact that we are all living in someone's dream is only improbable and not impossible.
I have often pointed out that the US Government was very smart to take our weapons away from us when we returned from Vietnam.
Just destroying all of those pipes and extraction equipment will be enough to put ruzzia back to stone age. Why? Because their economy literally relies on selling those natural resources. They don't produce anything else that any other country would like to buy from them.
@@Tespri I wouldn't say that. It would cause their economy to collapse though, and few regimes survive that.
01:57: Oh, nooo! I thought our today sponsor.
That would be a great start
why is this video so sped up.. feels so fkn weird (and no i have checked the settings)
How did you get these information
I don't think revaluation will happen. However as Russia struggles and losses to Ukraine Putin make more escalations if this continues a red line will be crossed that the people of Russia can't accept.
Can you please dial back the jump cuts and edits?
Your providing excellent information, but the edits are quite distracting.
Looking at your subscribers number, maybe it is just me, but I wish you would slow down your narrative delivery. Very intense to keep up with you, mate.
The slightest gap in delivery and people will switch channels. Same thing as in good all fashioned TV.
These are great exposés but spoken very quickly. It is slightly speeded up, isn’t it? . Not all your audience are native speakers so that might be hard to follow.
youtube does have the option to reduce speed of replay
Where can i buy your tshirts?
Slow it down a bit. Not everyone is wired for fast-forward.
You guys make such outstanding content!! Hope this channel gets more subscribers and views for their videos!!
They make sooo many mistakes that i just don't know how can it be good
As much as I would love to see a change of government in Russia (maybe even a democratic one, for a change), I dont think it will happen. The Russian opposition and the spirit of the people to change their fortune are too weak at this point, no one trusts anyone anymore and everyone who has the means to do so wants just to get out.
That is good. Flee.
History doesn’t repeat it rhymes.
I hope you make another one about Iran
If I were Putin I would closely monitor my generals, they're the ones who could overthrow the regime, especially if most russian men are under military leadership.
He would be.
No revolution is impossible. You just need the right amount of anger.
Russia is used to losing wars, why change the habit of a lifetime......
The mothers of dead and wounded soldiers can become a political force to be reckoned with. I remember the influence of "Madres de Plaza de Mayo" in Argentina in mobilizing public opinion against the military dictatorship. I also see the effect of women rebelling against the theocracy in Iran. Beware when women start to get angry. All societies have taboos against violence towards women, especially mothers, it becomes more difficult to justify repression against them to the rest of society.
Let's hope so. Putin-Russia is already responsible for 80,000 death Russian men. Plus all the death people in Ukraine who protect their country.
It’s a real thing. That’s why in every country know matter what regime/gov they have they are always Denying and repressing women’s rights in every way possible, because they know just how powerful we are. 😡
Some of us remember the members of Another Mother For Peace with love and respect.
How did you predict?
why is the speed of the video so fast. I think it is like 1.15
Did you speed this up by 10 percent? Slow it down a little.
Is this slightly sped up?
Which is why Putin called for partial mobilization. He cannot bear the political consequences of a full mobilization.
For real, do you guys speed the soundtrack up? This dude is talking way to fast and if I slow the video down to 0.75 he sounds like this is his natural talking speed.
That thing that leaves his mouth @5:38😮
I am enjoying this video so far.
Lets hope that more people will realise that there were 2 Russian revolutions, as you say In February and in October.
Oh wait, don't forget ...
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1905_Russian_Revolution
The Russian Revolution of 1905,[a] also known as the First Russian Revolution,[b] occurred on 22 January 1905, and was a wave of mass political and social unrest that spread through vast areas of the Russian Empire. ...
The 1905 revolution was primarily spurred by the international humiliation as a result of the Russian defeat in the Russo-Japanese War, which ended in the same year. ...
Truth to tell, the Bolshevik revolution began on 7th November 17. A later calendar change placed it, retrospectively, in October.
Didn't realize this was sped up
Absolute subscription.
What happen?
How crazy would it be if someone busted Navalny out of prison? Just a fun thought.
Dude got a teeth tan, but it's probably a spray on and they said something mildly sarcastic
This guy always feels like he is slightly sped up lol.
NO SHOT THIS HAPPENS LMAOO
So it was Lennon, not Lenin leading the revolution (as subtitles say so). LMFAO xD
Damn he talk fast!!!
The same was said for Assad, Castro, Maduro, the Kim dynasty etc. Putin brought stability to Russia and the military is loyal to him. This conflict will die down in the next 3 to 5 years time with Russia slowly integrated back into the world.
What about Ukraine?
That might happen if Russia gets out of Ukraine. I can see them taking back Crimea and the Donbas in the next 3 to 5 years.
Ah yes, in your wishful thinking
"with Russia slowly integrated back into the world."
Yeah. No. The European hydrocarbon-market is gone, and it won't come back. Sure, Russia can - after enormous investment - sell to India and China, but both of them know full well Russia has no choice but to sell to them. That has a huge impact on prices.
And that's just one area. Where Russia is insanely fcked is everything regarding modern (read, smaller than 60-90nm) silicon.
@@cy-one The point is that sanctions in all other areas are not monolith. They require efforts to support them and there are always some business which wants to trade with someone. So with the time sanction will erode and Russia will slowly come back, now without role of oil and gas supplier (because as you said EU carbon market is dead) but with some less important position.
Slow down. Fantastic content. Slow down please!
There is button for that. I like the fast way.
Why is the video sped up?
Dagestan is having none of this.
Why is this so sped up 🤣
Does this guy have gold teeth, or just very yellow ones? I honestly can't tell the difference
Word on the street is that Lavrov gave Putin crab lice and now the entire Kremlin is riddled with crab lice! 😱
Listening at 3/4 speed, and I think it's more effective.
Close your eyes, click your heels together three times and say over and over and over again "Mutiny On The Bolshoi . . .Mutiny OnThe Bolshoi . . .
Visual politik be like russia would collapse. Russia after annexing ukraine be like r u ok my dear 😂
“Rebels” should use a lowercase “r” in the title, optionally make “Against” all capitalised too. The capitalisation of “Rebels” implies it’s a noun, not a verb.
For a second I thought he had gold teeth.
While unlikely, i have my fingers crossed for the Russian Revolution 2.0, this time with democracy instead of Communism, i hope that Alexi Navalny would be the new leader of Russia (or at least a key figure, but that is just my ideal outcome)
I have not met a single person in Russia Who would follow Alexei Nawalny. Even at meetings against his imprisonment most of People were there agains the unjustice, not for him
Democracy will not work in Russia...given the current borders. Should the nation disintegrate, however, some of the then former Russian republics could actually turn into real republics. Some of them might even join their former motherlands, prior to being absorbed into the federation.
Navalny though is very much an advocate for the Russian Empire.
Remember guys. Democracy means the people get to choose their leaders. Not us. We don't get to choose. Us foreigners don't get to impose leaders we like on other people. That isn't democracy.
@@mikitz disintegration of Russia happened in 1991, most of its former state are not democracies today. Also desintegration of big empire always leads to wars between its former parts.
its pretty well known, that the next man in line after Putin probably would be far far worse. so no count me out of the " we want putin out" line. let them lose with him in power
Enemies of human kind should not be protested against; they should be brought to justice !!!!
"What if"
Special millitary operation doesn't change regime.
You have to wait till next election in Russia.
Is he wearing a grill ? Or does he never whiten his teeth. Great info as always tho
Just as one cannot rule out the possibility of a revolution, one cannot rule out the possibility of assassination-- or suicide, for that matter.
Or a 38-caliber aortic aneurism.
jeezus..your videos give me an anxiety attack
I don’t see that happening at least at this time as seems most people are mostly ignoring the double talk and lies. As long as it doesn’t effect the everyday people then it’s easy to close your eyes and mumble.
Most likely Wagner group will use its power to take over
Is the video spead up when he talks???
Whatever replaces him will be more oppressive. I wish I were wrong.
Revolutions may not spread from the peripheries of an empire, but separatist movements definitely do.
Oh it's coming. Adolf Putin made a massive geopolitical blunder haha
The control is probably too strong for that. I could see bombings and sabatogue though.
Here man just stumbled on and subscribed yo your channel, but please slow down!(editing etc) Any faster would border on head wreckage🙊🙉🙈👍
Well called guys
Alexander Kerensky was (what I understand) a traitor in Finland. There is a diss song against Kerensky: "Ai Ai Kerenski".
Homemade vegetable soup it's relatively cheap and highly nutritious
I hope I’m wrong but I don’t think that Putin can be toppled at this time
Who would have thought 🤔?
Of course it's possible. Russian governments getting overthrown or at least rebelled against after losing a war is the rule in Russian history, not the exception.
Nr. of successful revolutions in Russia: 1
Nr. of wars Russia has been involved: around 200 (see en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_wars_involving_Russia)
You call that a rule?
@@TheSandkastenverbot Well, at least you don't hide the fact that you're a Russian bot. But that's OK, I'll play with you, comrade...
The 1905 Revolution after losing the Russo-Japanese War, the 1917 Revolution after losing WWI, the 1991 collapse of the government following losing the war in Afghanistan, and I know that Yeltsin's fall from favor and surrender to Putin had a lot to do with his inability to control the situation in Chechnya. And that's just what I can remember off the top of my head. Imagine what I could come up with if I actually did a little research...
Is it just me or are there way more ads than usual, had like 5 interruptions. Do love your content, but it felt a bit extreme
This scenario is looking ever more likely with the rise of prominence of the Wagner group
Kind a fun viewing this after russian Belgorod rebellion.
Wish you speak more slowly, like
Not 75rpm! Interesting but too fast.