What if Switch 2 launches in a downturn?

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  • เผยแพร่เมื่อ 25 ต.ค. 2024

ความคิดเห็น • 117

  • @metroidjones122
    @metroidjones122 2 หลายเดือนก่อน +46

    You have such a unique and interesting Nintendo content channel. I’m enjoying your insights.
    I hope more and more people find this channel.

    • @nintendoforecast
      @nintendoforecast  2 หลายเดือนก่อน +5

      Thank you so much!

    • @Mewsashi-cz9fo
      @Mewsashi-cz9fo 2 หลายเดือนก่อน

      no they have bobby lolita epstein ring kotick with infinite money behind them, they will be fine as long as there are underage people enjoyers in this world.

  • @ranchman693
    @ranchman693 2 หลายเดือนก่อน +34

    I feel bad because I want to support new games that are coming out but I'm saving up now for a Switch 2. Probably going to be a $500 investment ($400 for console $70 for new game). Moneys hard to come by so I'm setting aside $30 a month starting last month lol

    • @nintendoforecast
      @nintendoforecast  2 หลายเดือนก่อน +15

      Excellent planning. Good luck!

    • @luckyrockmore2796
      @luckyrockmore2796 2 หลายเดือนก่อน +2

      You'll enjoy all of it that much more because of the sacrifice

    • @AlrickCollinsJr
      @AlrickCollinsJr 2 หลายเดือนก่อน

      Nice!!! My advice: keep those savings in a High Yield Savings account while interest rates are still relatively high. Also, I'd start buying up 1 share a month of Nintendo (Ticker NTDOY). One share currently costs less than $20

    • @DoctorMeh
      @DoctorMeh 2 หลายเดือนก่อน +1

      Good on you!

  • @metroidprime3863
    @metroidprime3863 2 หลายเดือนก่อน +35

    Nothing the Wii and DS were are that their high during the 2007 recession. In fact the recession might of help Nintendo increase their sales as people tend to stay in more during a recession.

    • @smashmonkey6304
      @smashmonkey6304 2 หลายเดือนก่อน +4

      The recession didn’t start till Dec 2007. Nintendo’s revenue fell in 2009 and didn’t recover for 9 years.

    • @kcidd12
      @kcidd12 2 หลายเดือนก่อน

      @@smashmonkey6304lol he probably thought recession started in 04”

    • @rei1556
      @rei1556 2 หลายเดือนก่อน

      technically nintendo has launched their consoles in a recession, japan has been in recession ever since their bubble crashed and they haven't gotten out of it even till now

    • @ghudbob8613
      @ghudbob8613 หลายเดือนก่อน

      @@smashmonkey6304 Part of that lack of recovery was from how hard of a flop the wii u was to begin with.. it only sold 13 million units compared to the wii with 100 million. That's not 100% a recession problem more so just not having a console and being beat by their rivals.

  • @itsasecrettoeverybody
    @itsasecrettoeverybody 2 หลายเดือนก่อน +81

    My worse nightmare is a Nintendo digital only console.

    • @hododod246
      @hododod246 2 หลายเดือนก่อน +14

      That is not happening any time soon. For Nintendo split is 50-50 and Furukawa clearly stated that they are committed to distribute games physically.

    • @dinar8749
      @dinar8749 2 หลายเดือนก่อน +8

      Physical games should be made more convenient. How about installing a digital version anyways as soon as the physical cartridge is inserted, so you can still play it whenever you want. Unless some change like this happens newer generations will inevitably replace all physical media.

    • @itsasecrettoeverybody
      @itsasecrettoeverybody 2 หลายเดือนก่อน +10

      @@dinar8749 what are you proposing is to have a physical thing that installs a digital game. NO. and I don't care about what the newer generation wants. Digital games are not property.

    • @andrew8168
      @andrew8168 2 หลายเดือนก่อน +1

      ​@dinar8749 Digital is better for the company in every way. They would go digital only if they calculated that they would make more money, regardless of the impact on their customers.

    • @sboinkthelegday3892
      @sboinkthelegday3892 2 หลายเดือนก่อน +3

      ​@@itsasecrettoeverybody Consumer goods are not property. They're "personal property, not private property" like your toothbrush in socialism. Property maintains its value, but consumerism directly demands value to diminish,. be consumed.
      Because Japan is a capitalism and not consumerism, resale stores of games maintain a healthy low, slight increase, in price while US retro games are scalped and bootlegged, as a response to consumer "right" to flood the market with their own "used" games. Getting that $20 back instead of $50 breaks the capitalist promise of supply and demand, and acts the same as Unfair Competition practices where Walmart floods the market with cheap goods.
      If you want to own private property, you can be like MS and buy out Rareware, and host all its retro games as a service digitally that the OWNER owns, and customers ogle at. That's what property means. Your lemonade stand ALLOWED to trade for pocket money on corporate property is NOT your property, but that is what "game preservation" has come to mean, and that's why there's no sustainable used games stores in USA.

  • @nikifallen93
    @nikifallen93 2 หลายเดือนก่อน +7

    I always love your videos. It’s such a breath of fresh air to hear someone just reasoning thoughtfully about Nintendo-related economics. And without a constant undertone of politics. Sometimes I just retread your vids instead of watching something new. I’m not keen on written errata, since I generally don’t watch the screen, but I’m rarely going to notice those details anyway, I guess. Today, one especially interesting part of your essay was considering whether people actually purchase less video-game related stuff in times of hardship. It was sound reasoning, but I do wonder whether some non-trivial part of the Western population actually consider gaming as something other than a luxury-or, more accurately, if enough are so affluent that it’s never a question of living without luxuries, but instead, how much. As long as there is a roof over the head and food in the belly, then there is gaming to be had. No idea if it’s true, but interesting.
    Keep up the great work!

    • @nintendoforecast
      @nintendoforecast  2 หลายเดือนก่อน +1

      Thank you for the lovely comment and you make a thought-provoking point.

  • @RainbowLove487
    @RainbowLove487 2 หลายเดือนก่อน +17

    People are still discussing botw and even older Zelda games. I imagine it expand beyond Zelda. But it's a beautiful thing I think.

    • @pattersong6637
      @pattersong6637 2 หลายเดือนก่อน +1

      If the Switch 2 is backwards compatible (which, let's face it, it is) and there's serious economic pressure, I could totally see a revival of Nintendo Selects with a variety of older Switch 1 titles that aren't selling as well anymore rereleased at $30. It'd be solidly in "if you didn't buy it the first time it's new to you" territory and it wouldn't be hard to imagine something like Pikmin 3 Deluxe or Captain Toad or whatever finding a new market at a lower price point.

  • @GabePlaysYT
    @GabePlaysYT 2 หลายเดือนก่อน +11

    COVID-19 was one of the best things to happen to Nintendo. The Switch was already as successful as the Wii by 2019, but once everyone was stuck at home and Animal Crossing: New Horizons came out, they DOUBLED and became silly successful. There was nothing for people to do but buy video-games and chill on their island with Isabelle and friends. A bad economic situation can actually end up helping Nintendo.

    • @therealjaystone2344
      @therealjaystone2344 2 หลายเดือนก่อน +1

      They were prepared for the short shortage that they stored way too many of them in their warehouses

    • @Shinjiduo
      @Shinjiduo 2 หลายเดือนก่อน +5

      Double is a bit strong the Switch has already sold just over 21 million the year prior to COVID and "only" sold just under 29 million on the COVID year. The Switch was projected to sell 25 million anyway that year COVID just provided a little boost to console sales. Every little bit helps though when it comes to sales.

  • @Smexbi
    @Smexbi 2 หลายเดือนก่อน +10

    9:10 I strongly believe Nintendo will release a "Switch 2 Lite" by the end of 2026 at the latest.
    The main reason is the new EU removeable battery legislation.
    The rule stats that ALL new electronic devices with a battery, needs the ability to remove it easily for customers.
    Old devices that were originaly release 2026 or before are fine, but anything new starting 2027 needs to have a removeable battery.
    I think Nintendo would want to avoid it if possible, as long as possible.

    • @QnjtGWonQNqVsbYyzjx4
      @QnjtGWonQNqVsbYyzjx4 2 หลายเดือนก่อน +2

      It’s gonna be fine. Smartphone tech have to be cutting edge and many component have to stacked and crammed. They also have obsession on making them as light as possible. With the cheaper hardware of the switch successor, they are not gonna be as packed. There are some space for removable batteries.

    • @nintendoforecast
      @nintendoforecast  2 หลายเดือนก่อน +2

      Interesting point.

  • @travisbplank
    @travisbplank 2 หลายเดือนก่อน +3

    Just started watching the channel and I'm loving it. Reminds me of the old days reading EGM where I'd get equal parts videogame talk and industry talk.

    • @nintendoforecast
      @nintendoforecast  2 หลายเดือนก่อน +4

      Thank you and welcome aboard! I loved the old games mags in the 90s which had great people like Rich Leadbetter (now of Digital Foundry fame) so I'm sure there's a big influence on my content.

  • @VuNguyen-fv5jl
    @VuNguyen-fv5jl 2 หลายเดือนก่อน +5

    Even Bobby Kotick analyzed that video games had great value for entertainment per hour basis. But he made this during Modern Warfare 2 and Guitar Hero era, and video game economics have evolved I’m sure

  • @malo932
    @malo932 2 หลายเดือนก่อน +3

    Your channel is growing so fast, keep it up!

  • @ZepMarioBros
    @ZepMarioBros 2 หลายเดือนก่อน +14

    Great! Thanks for sharing such insight!

  • @EnGageImations
    @EnGageImations 2 หลายเดือนก่อน +4

    10:42
    Of course you cut to this when you bring up inflation LMFAO

  • @aminparker01
    @aminparker01 2 หลายเดือนก่อน +10

    不況が起これば、
    任天堂だけでなく、競合他社すべてに影響を及ぼすだろう。任天堂ゲーム機本体は弱く、安価なので、任天堂は競合他社ほど痛みを感じないだろう。
    不況を避けることはできない企業ですが、これらの企業は全力を尽くして嵐を乗り切らなければならない。

  • @EnigmaticGentleman
    @EnigmaticGentleman 2 หลายเดือนก่อน +3

    Honestly a recession wouldn't be THAT bad for them profit wise, just heavily discount the Switch and Lite, and drop all Switch 1 games to 40$ or less (which they'll probably do anyways, though as of right now my money is Switch 1 games only getting dropped to 50$)

  • @silentbilly7971
    @silentbilly7971 2 หลายเดือนก่อน +4

    Nintendo is the only one that consistently puts out games I want to play so their console is always my first choice, xbox and sony haven't really put out any games that interest me since 7th gen and the ones I am interested in were in development way before they bought the devs that made the games so when it comes to the others I only own my xbox for backwards compatibility and to play a select few games not avaliable on switch like the ascent, ghost wire tokyo, wwe2k24, undisputed wbc, and sparking zero if all of these were available on nintendo I probably wouldn't even have an Xbox only other use it has is to play my movie collection

  • @Shinjiduo
    @Shinjiduo 2 หลายเดือนก่อน +1

    If all the black swan events regarding supply and production happen then yes, Nintendo will have a hard time. If you cannot get the new console built, you cannot sell them, let alone in high number. However, given Nintendo's sublime financial situation and the Pokemon fan base being sure to snatch up the new console since it will be the only place to play the next mainline game in the series I doubt a recession will have any adverse impacts on the Switch successor's business. Switch 2 should have the new Mario Kart ready day one just in case though...

  • @captainthunderbolt7541
    @captainthunderbolt7541 2 หลายเดือนก่อน

    There is so much pent-up demand that I don't think a recession would hurt console sales at all. A recession would probably hurt software sales though.

  • @4shadow100
    @4shadow100 2 หลายเดือนก่อน +2

    I think Nintendo is recession resistant but definitely not recession proof. In theory if all the planets align with bad decision making, the japanese baking system collapse, their foreign assets go under, and they have all flops on market then nintendo would surely go under. However Nintendo seems to be in a really good spot and have saved a lot of cash to weather instanced even worse than the wii u era

  • @minecrafter3448
    @minecrafter3448 2 หลายเดือนก่อน +1

    I have another video request, do you think that the release date update was because of the strengthening of the yen? The timing is uncanny if it isn’t. Barely a week passes and Nintendo tells developers a new date, similar to the one they gave before, altered slightly. I’m willing to bet they projected when they would have the console ready very recently.

    • @nintendoforecast
      @nintendoforecast  2 หลายเดือนก่อน +2

      I had the same thought. We'll never know for sure and it's only rumours talking that there has been an update at all. But it's definitely... interesting!

  • @sboinkthelegday3892
    @sboinkthelegday3892 2 หลายเดือนก่อน +3

    There is a chance that, after preparing for it, Nintendo could pursue a recessive market on purpose by pivoting to BRICS countries, and take it as a chance for growth rather than a risk of stagnation or for the preparation to go to waste.
    It's not necessarily a huge problem for supply limitations in USA, even if Switch 2 is underpriced to match Brazilian market at its high, middle-high end of somewhat luxury goods, like Ayn Loki/Tectoy Zeenix. As a matter of lost potential revenue, this might be a calculated move to cushion the risk of Americans not having the income to buy into Nintendo's new generation ecosystem at all, which would round up as even greater losses.
    Economic tourism to Central America however to buy unscalpered Switch 2 might not be that much of a damage to Nintendo's brand, and would likely benefit Japanese companies in general with increased growth in the area, if a more general investment does focus there. Nintendo would also benefit from hostile economic policy by the US, that would make it costly for Americans to buy units earmarked for BRICS without just offloading that benefit into the import tax, allowing Nintendo to keep up a steep price in the north.
    There are signs of production of Switch 2 possibly having begun it's component process for quite a long while now. Also it stands to reason that Nintendo might refurbish old parts such as well-kept cartridge slots to be reused in the supply chain. These possibilities might align with part of the manufacturing of later SKUs to be set up very modularly, with a capacity to adjust to component shortages and uneven supply security. This requires very cheap manufacturing costs and risk of downtime at the factories. Nintendo might clamp down on refurbishing like Apple does, and facilitate their own reassambly lines closer to Western countries. With the risk of embargoes, such as Trump's history of anti-trade policies with Mexican competition.

    • @oo--7714
      @oo--7714 2 หลายเดือนก่อน

      @@sboinkthelegday3892 they aren’t really going to do that. The brics countries consoles aren’t that popular and Nintendo would have to do a lot of investment in order to try and get a stranglehold

    • @oo--7714
      @oo--7714 2 หลายเดือนก่อน

      Nintendo aren’t really going to do anything similar to the china and India hero project Sony is doing,

    • @nintendoforecast
      @nintendoforecast  2 หลายเดือนก่อน +2

      They scaled back manufacturing in China (where selling their systems has always proved horrendously difficult as I covered in a video a while back) and basically closed down in Russia last year so I don't see those as options compared to an established market where they already have a huge presence. I think you're onto something with them keeping components from the OG Switch although then again, how expensive would it really be to adapt something like this.

    • @4shadow100
      @4shadow100 2 หลายเดือนก่อน

      That would be pointless if those countries don't have strong copyright and IP protections. If they don't strongly enforce those then Nintendo is better off not even bothering with those markets since I'd cause them more problems than potential sale benefits on those markets.

  • @dreamgood130
    @dreamgood130 2 หลายเดือนก่อน

    This was one of ur best videos yet !!! Can’t wait for switch 2 and your content with it

  • @Mofaxx
    @Mofaxx 2 หลายเดือนก่อน

    This is, by far, one of the best Nintendo analysis/speculation channels on this platform! Thanks for all that you do

  • @dilaraprincessname1223
    @dilaraprincessname1223 2 หลายเดือนก่อน

    So what I'm most interested in is what the successor will be called next year. It could have a completely different name like super Nintendo Switch or just Switch 2 but we'll find out next year at the presentation

  • @RainbowLove487
    @RainbowLove487 2 หลายเดือนก่อน +1

    Love your content. Thanks for all the info!

  • @MrSRArter
    @MrSRArter 2 หลายเดือนก่อน

    2009 was the Wii's best selling year

  • @saidul02
    @saidul02 2 หลายเดือนก่อน +4

    need to be really switch 2 not switch 1.5

    • @QnjtGWonQNqVsbYyzjx4
      @QnjtGWonQNqVsbYyzjx4 2 หลายเดือนก่อน +1

      Yeah, they have to make every big launch after launch to be exclusive. No half-commitment like PS5 and XSX

    • @oo--7714
      @oo--7714 2 หลายเดือนก่อน +1

      @@QnjtGWonQNqVsbYyzjx4 they will end up doing the sane sooner or later, people said the same thing about Nintendo and dlc.

  • @Goolix_Aero
    @Goolix_Aero 2 หลายเดือนก่อน

    Fantastic video as always

  • @griswo3272
    @griswo3272 2 หลายเดือนก่อน

    I had a question for you since nintendo switch 2 will come soonish, do you think they will use this to overhaul the e-shop on the new console?
    I heard from everyone online how the eshop is poorly received.
    Would be interesting to hear your take on it

    • @nintendoforecast
      @nintendoforecast  2 หลายเดือนก่อน +2

      It's a good question. Not really sure. Feels like eventually they'll revise it and this is a good a time as any. But they've kept it this long so perhaps they feel the structure is working for them and they'll make small iterative changes rather than anything too drastic. (Personally, I agree it needs a big overhaul).

  • @caseypenk
    @caseypenk 2 หลายเดือนก่อน

    i disagree about video games being a leisure service. they are leisure goods and much less impacted by recessions.

  • @WhiteInk47
    @WhiteInk47 2 หลายเดือนก่อน

    If it did they’d be absolutely fine

  • @t3mp3k-o9m
    @t3mp3k-o9m 2 หลายเดือนก่อน +18

    Dude, Nintendo almost died during WiiU era. Even reggie fill aime said Switch was make or brake system for Nintendo. If the Switch was a flop like WiiU, Nintendo would have ceased to exist. I'm glad it didn't happen, so no Nintendo is more vulnerable to recession than ms or sony or other gaming companies and their next console need to repeat the Switch success and seel 100m. Otherwise, the writing is on the wall for Nintendo.

    • @Shinjiduo
      @Shinjiduo 2 หลายเดือนก่อน +5

      Nintendo did not even lose 20% of their cash reserves during the WiiU era. Nintendo had 9 billion US Dollars in cash going into the WiiU generation and lost 1.2 billion US Dollars during that period. How could Nintendo go out of business before going into debt? Bloomberg back then even admitted Nintendo would have to undergo a WiiU style failure at least another two times in a row before real financial issues would arise from them.
      What you said makes no sense. Nintendo has nearly double the cash reserves today as they did in 2012 and is the richest company is Japan. Nintendo has more than enough slack to fail with the Switch 2. Nintendo Forecast literally had a video discussing Nintendo's Keynesian finance policy that forgoes growth for long term financial security a few months back.

    • @ravenebony2267
      @ravenebony2267 2 หลายเดือนก่อน +3

      Honestly, if Nintendo and Playstation were to operate at a loss for 5 years, i think Nintendo would be the one most likely to remain in business.

    • @Shinjiduo
      @Shinjiduo 2 หลายเดือนก่อน +4

      @@ravenebony2267 Not likely, definitely. Sony is carrying 100's of billions of dollars in debt. Which is fine because the Interest rate in Japan is 0.25%. However, it means Sony cannot afford to not make money. This is why Sony has had so many layoffs and Studio Closures this year. Nintendo has over $15 Billion US in cash, no debt, not to mention other quickly flippable assets that make their financial suitability medium term assured.

    • @t3mp3k-o9m
      @t3mp3k-o9m 2 หลายเดือนก่อน

      @Shinjiduo you can google reggie fills aime interview about Switch make or break system for Nintendo. He admits Nintendo almost died during WiiU and he also said they can't afford another WiiU situation

    • @t3mp3k-o9m
      @t3mp3k-o9m 2 หลายเดือนก่อน

      @Shinjiduo but how? sony is bigger than Nintendo. They are more profitable than Nintendo. They also have other business besides gaming than Nintendo. Heck Nintendo gave up Zelda IP to sony for the upcoming Zelda movie. Not to mention ps5 is destroying xbox and Nintendo right now with all their games especially AAA third party exclusives games. There's no way sony is in more trouble than Nintendo. You're not making any sense my dude.

  • @dinar8749
    @dinar8749 2 หลายเดือนก่อน

    If technology ever got to a point where AI and robots could replace all human work, what do you think would happen? Hopefully human extinction/enslavement could be avoided.

    • @nintendoforecast
      @nintendoforecast  2 หลายเดือนก่อน +3

      I don't think it's likely anytime soon.

    • @dinar8749
      @dinar8749 2 หลายเดือนก่อน

      @@nintendoforecast Haha fair enough

  • @jandkaskim2760
    @jandkaskim2760 2 หลายเดือนก่อน

    Nintendo about to announce Covid-25 for the Switch 2

  • @andrew8168
    @andrew8168 2 หลายเดือนก่อน

    They played the currency market and could lose (they could also win).

  • @dr.wolfstar1765
    @dr.wolfstar1765 2 หลายเดือนก่อน

    The Wii U proves that isnt true

    • @pattersong6637
      @pattersong6637 2 หลายเดือนก่อน

      Nintendo was more diversified in that era. It could weather the Wii U tanking because the 3DS also existed. Nintendo going one device at a time in the Switch Era has forced it to basically have a success every time or else. Nintendo's backup things like its movies and theme parks are heavily reliant on Nintendo franchises being popular. If the games are doing poorly, the theme parks and movies will suffer too. Nintendo can't afford an unsuccessful console. They don't all have to be ridiculous smash hits like the Switch (the Switch 2 could probably sell half as much as the Switch did and still be fine) but they can't be flops either.

    • @andrew8168
      @andrew8168 2 หลายเดือนก่อน

      ​@@pattersong6637 This is why they need to get Pokémon back on track and keep them out of politics without saying that they're keeping them out of politics.

    • @qrowthebird7496
      @qrowthebird7496 2 หลายเดือนก่อน

      ​@@andrew8168 that's The Pokémon Company making those decisions not Nintendo.

    • @PeridotEX
      @PeridotEX หลายเดือนก่อน

      @@andrew8168 what is political about pokemon