Is the Dollar Doomed?
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- เผยแพร่เมื่อ 19 ก.ย. 2024
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Thomas Sowell suggested in an interview to get rid of the fed reserve. The interviewer asked what he would replace it with. Sowell's response was "When someone removes a cancer, what do you replace it with?"
Unfortunately, that cancer was your lungs, liver, and kidneys, so you die. The Fed and our legal system serve as our vital organs. Removing the Fed is how you get corpo wars, chaos, and corruption. Not to say the Fed is perfect, but it's a much better alternative.
The dollar won’t be the world’s reserve currency forever. But the biggest challenge to those wanting to dethrone it is that there are no viable alternatives to the dollar. The euro is the closest thing to a competitor, but it has its own issues and the eurozone debt crisis undermined its appeal. The Yuan is too tightly controlled by the CCP and is starting off at a very low floor anyways.
The US is actively backing the euro. I`m Bulgarian and the US government owns basically 60% - 70% of Bulgarian media either directly or through useful idiots that they directly sponsor with millions of dollars. The US also creates and sponsors its own political parties here. This week internal party leaks came out where we hear the party leadership discuss how the evil Americans want to get us to join the eurozone even though 70% of the population is against it due to national pride and fear of inflation.
The US embassy has also bombarded the media with official statements how they want us to join the euro.
Personally I don`t care much about the entire world but my country could easily trade with Singapore dollar, Swiss frank and gold which we probably should given how disgustingly you`ve treated our Russian cousins.
Gold and Silver is the Alternative
question is. how will the dollar system fall. the united states has it tied to many of the "developed" countries
@@sinoroman The dollar system fails when people choose to not store there wealth in dollars. It's not countries... It's individuals like you and me that make the change.
@@TheBastyPastyShow AFAIK the problem with gold and silver is, there is not enough gold and silver.
That means gold standard would lead to deflation, which would trigger recession or even depression.
The issue with replacing the U.S. Dollar is that you actually need a currency that’s better. The USD doesn’t need to be perfect, it just needs to be better than the alternatives.
Where!? 👀
Healthiest man in the cancer ward.
True Statement 💯
THIS.
It's called gold backed currency.
@1:27 Correction: nothing like it has been seen EVER, including The Roman Empire. Roman cultural influence was only extraordinary within the borders of Rome and slightly beyond it: Asia had about as much influence in Rome as Rome had in Asia, and it was relatively little either way, simply because there was no capability to generate much influence thousands of miles from your border. It was entirely limited to Silk Road style trade which almost exclusively affected the lives of elites and the class of people willing to do trade throughout The Silk Road. That's why it was called "The Silk Road", only silk and similarly high value per weight commodities were even worth transporting such massive distances. If America lost its cultural hegemony today, in 200 years, it would be regarded as having a profoundly unique influence over global culture because there simply was no technological means by which any society could achieve such a level of global memetic dominance before it.
It would not be regarded as having a "profoundly unique" anything because that would be 200 years of it's Enemies writing about it.
Parts of the Roman Empire were in Asia and Africa.
@@Rensune The barbarians wrote about Rome after it fell, and yet the West, the literal descendants of those barbarians, know so much about and idolize Rome. Give it some time and history transcends political borders
@@ante5544 The germanic barbarians came and destroyed western Rome, because the knew of it. Wiking warriors went to eastern rome - because they knew of it.
It will be seen as another, albeit one of the most powerful empires of the past if it declines today, like how Britain is now coming off of their British Empire.
I worked at mcdonald's in Canada from 2015 to 2017. When i started, the chicken sandwich on the "dollar menu' was priced at 1,39 +tax. When i quit, the price had gotten up to 1,69+ tax. Two days ago i bought one for 3,19+ tax.
2% inflation.
Eh don’t buy that poison, make your own food.
@@bradleypeterson2208 problem is the price of most grocery in Canada is insanely expensive these days , damned if you do damned if you dont
Mc donalds to increase prices to increase wages
The point is: price has increased 229% since 2015
Part of the finance nerd gang. The US dollar (and all currencies) aren't only backed by fauth but also... by taxes. You may have little "faith" but if you don't want to go to jail you need to have dollars to give to government (which suddenly become valuable to you for continuing your life). You can't pay taxes in gold, bitcoin, homes, shares or whatever. The necessity for us dollars also keeps the currency valuable.
The real reserve to the US dollar is the fact that our military will come kill you if you don't want to use it.
people dont understand valuation fundamentally
As long as you have compliance….
The USD is backed by trust in its future.
Trust that America is the most secure nation in the world and its wealth won't be harmed
Trust that the U.S. can forcefully confiscate assets its owed in times of disagreements or conflict
Trust that the U.S. won't confiscate your assets as long as you abide by its standards
Trust that the U.S. is a free market that allows businesses to have healthy competition by protecting intellectual rights and discourage monopolies so that they can continuously innovate
Trust that the U.S. economy will continuously grow and innovate
Trust that the U.S. can and will continuously pay back its debts
Trust that the U.S. central bank is a semi-independent agency, not controlled by the government so one reckless president doesn't run the currency into the ground
Trust in its sheer economic size so that the USD cannot be manipulated easily even when multiple entities try to attack it
Despite all it's flaws, the USD is still the most trustworthy currency in the world and no other currency comes even close to its stability. The U.S. does not force countries to use its currency. It's just the best standard the world has for trade.
The most ridiculous statements I hear about China is that they're holding U.S. bonds as a favor to the U.S.. It holds U.S. bonds because there is not a lot of great investment opportunities for that amount of money and because their own currency is dogcrap which the USD helps sustain. The Chinese have discussed weaponizing their U.S. bond holdings by flooding the market with bonds but that will only make the market pick up the cheap bonds. Also, the U.S. has threatened that if the Chinese do such acts out of hostility they will cancel their holdings with the Qing dynasty railroad bonds since China claims that it has inherited its authority.
If the USD was such a bad currency, the Saudis would not be holding a trillion of it despite it continuously losing value ever since the U.S. went off the gold standard. There's just not a lot of ways you can invest that much money.
Other countries don’t pay taxes in USD. We are talking about world wide usage here. You discuss domestic usage.
"Brazil is close to civil war while having just commited what may have been the biggest corruption case in history" as a brazilian, i wish brazilians had the gaul to actually do something. May you make a video on countries close to civil war soon?
what is the corruption case he’s referring to, the recent election? What’s it like down there?
What was this corruption case? And is it confirmed true?
@@darklung3441 It was something that happened in the during president Dilma's second term. Even the current president went to jail because of it. The country is now divided between left and right and many can't see a peaceful way out of it
That's what happens when you elect a convicted criminal as president
@@jakinboaz8558 No, it is right-wing bullshit.
This is what happens when you get irresponsible with the money printer.
Argentina's facts
test
As if china is handling things any better
@@verrico7536 The difference is that their rate of inflation is trying to catch up with the rate of economic growth, not the other way around:)
@@disketa25 I think China owes far more compared to their GDP then America same with Japan.
My favorite think about your channel is no matter what, you don't forgot to add some sort of advice or inspiration at the end of the video. Even if the topic is a blue, you make sure to give someone hope and I feel that is the best thing you can give someone with outlooks like these. Awesome videos!
Yeah, I understand why people call him doomer, but I feel like he has done a lot better with this from 6 months ago
@@mrbarkingdilly2236 People call him doomer? Where? Discord?
i feel like he does fall into the trap of focusing too much on the bad, partially out of human nature to see the bad more, but also maybe to keep views. you know how much bad news sells. i mean yes things will get bad, but the united states still has a lot going for it. geography is perfect, it has multiple international ally chains if even some members break away, stable birthrate, high agriculture production. even with the dollar maybe falling off its not as if the world will end. things will not be great, but there won't realistically be any starvation, simply just a reduction of luxuries that we really didn't need anyway. i don't need the random candy i buy, nor do some people need that new car, new clothes or other random things. in some ways perhaps this collaspe is what finally helps america be a more humble nation and more frugal, rather than the excesses of the 1950s that have really continued through the 80s and onward today.
The opinions on this channel are bias and basically US propaganda. It literally ignores >50% of the world which is where growth is coming from. This was not so 10 years ago… The world is changing.
like when he said the world would run out of food starve last winter and it didn't happen? He makes up doomsday scenarios for clicks
I was an AP student, top of the class, when I understood fiat money and the federal reserve. It blew my mind, especially in relation to how women select, not totally, but largely based on money and money isn't entirely allocated by merit in a fiat system. I dropped out of high school and began to travel and read widely. I don't recommend the path I took. I'm just saying that if Americans and people broadly understood the fiat central bank system then a real revolution would be inevitable and justified.
Math is admittedly not my strong suit, I however understand enough Math to know that the Federal Reserve is a glorified cartel that is robbing us blind through a de facto inflation tax.
Barter will become king
"Money" isn't allocated by merit in fixed currency or in a barter system either.
Not really in fact 99% would be glad it's there because it's mutually beneficial for everyone.
I mean not the women I know
“80% of the US currency in circulation has been printed since the beginning of COVID” - this is not correct, I think you’re looking at the M1 money supply, which had a definition change during this period of time so you’re not comparing apples to apples. Saving accounts were not included in this measure prior to COVID and are now included. M2 is a more accurate measure of money supply and shows about 25% of existing currency printed since the beginning of 2020 (still insane).
Wow!
You were correct in stating a decline in the USD would benefit lower classes, as most people aren't invested in the stock market, and inflation causes rich people to put money elsewhere. It would make those markets more meritocratic as well. This means that businesses would actually have to deliver useful products at more competitive prices. The price of that company's stock would be less based on speculation, which means less bubbles. Banks in turn could actually have more liquidity outside of yield bonds. This means less bank runs. The problem is the Federal Reserve.
Completly wrong, inflation is a tax on those that have NO debt that gets paid to people that HAVE Debt... Like Governments and businesses with leverage. Poor people have only little leverage and wage isn´t tied to inflation unlike company profits that per definition will have to go up in nominal terms even if the markup is the same
If you want to know if the dollar is doomed ask this question, "Would I rather use the any other currency over the dollar?"
Exactly. When everyone is blind, the one-eyed guy is king.
Ask Russia after they had their dollar reserves stolen. The whole world saw that and concluded the US can no longer be trusted. It's also a fiat currency backed by nothing other than the threat of violence.
Gold is the alternative, not a new master.
Precious metals are a universally-accepted and fundamentally useful currency with a naturally-imposed printing rate. I can see it making a comeback.
CBDC backed by WEF/UN
You missed a major reason that inflation helps the rich, when the government (or Fed...same thing) prints money the money isn't distributed fairly but rather goes to banks. The banks, with this liquidity, are like mountains which are capable of creating their own weather. A mountain is so large that even surrounded by desert the mountain can have some rain. Banks and the money press create economic mountains. The banks are able to pick the winners and they can pick the losers. Further, inflation also causes banks to fail as investors pull their money out of banks and into investments like bonds. These bank failures increase the consolidation of banks thus creating bigger mountains which are able really pick winners and pick losers. If there is only one bank left then all businesses will depend on that one institution to give them loans to make payroll, expand, etc. For many businesses, no short term loans means they can't compete against the competition that does have access to capital or it can mean they go out of business immediately.
When banking gets to be this powerful you start to see silly things like ESG scores and other nonsense become part of doing business.
ESG isn't just silly it's social engineering to bully everyone into line for their woke agenda designed to decay the fabric of western civilisation and cause further divide amongst the masses, divide and conquer.. the bosses of ESG need a Nuremberg trial
"Trustworthy Court systems" got a laugh out of me in the first 5 minutes, kudos.
china better
I’m putting all my spare money into silver coins/bars and firearms. I’m not gonna let all my wealth depreciate because the Feds have to print worthless money to pay bills.
Cringe. Buy productive assets not silver
Anything is valuable as long as you can buy things with it
You’re so American 🤣🤣
@@benchoflemons398 such as? most assets depreciate. gold is pretty solid investment.
*to pay woke agenda.
Unironically think this is one of the best whatifalthist videos this topic needs to be addressed alot more because 1 not alot of people know or understand it and 2 it drives a significant portion of the economy and thus the world. Especially in americas case i think the long term survival of our republic is gonna in part be decided how we deal with undemocratic institutions like the federal reserve (central bank) which have grown extremely powerful.
25:05 Brazilian here, no we are not "close of having a civil war", the population doesn't any guns nor the will to do so, the military is conformist with the status quo and we have no political group great or armed enought to change it
There were (rare) exceptions but in Brazil things are usually hopeless but never serious enought for people to do anything -, sadly
It's the same problem we have here in America; even after the blatant corruption and injustice, and all the humiliations, everyone is still too afraid to lose the little comfort they have left. We may talk big with our guns, but no one is willing to use them.
Brazil is a look into the future for the West.
Os EUA teve invasão no capitólio, além de divisão racial bem pior que o Brasil. Tst
Basta vê vídeos do Wallmart lá...caos
@@chico9805 I believe it is india
Nothing is forever, not even the dollar.
These videos do not make me dread the future, but hopeful for what awaits us on the other side. God bless.
I’m quite excited for this. Maybe we can finally get our manufacturing base back because we will need it. Plus it will end the liberal economic world order and hopefully stop the consolidation of power.
No it won't, sorry.
@@alloutlife88 why wouldn’t it? If we need to keep our economy up, we would have to produce things people need. Thus it is a necessity to bring it back.
@@theredknight9314 because of cost.
@@rizkyadiyanto7922 well maybe. Probably not though because it would become yo expensive to ship across the sea. If the US dollar is no longer the reserve currency then it would cost more to make it over seas then make it in the US.
@@theredknight9314 We'll probably see a boost in manufacture if value of us dollar continues to go to shit as you said, what it won't do is stop the liberal order and consolidation of power because it's in the government's interest to keep things as they are and thus remain in power. They have no incentive to change things because the only ones who are gonna feel the consequences are as always, the working class, not them.
What impressed me the most was learning that he is only 21, I always assumed he was in his mid 30s.
I always knew. He has childish points. “Non-western world doesn’t hate conflict”. This white ass is still living in 2002. >90% of wars are started by west in last 100 years. And the west hates conflict?
“America won’t steal your money so you can put your money there”. USA is literally the only country to confiscate other country’s wealth in the last 50 years. See Russia recently. So many other BS points in this video. You low iq bums found your “analyst”
Very impressive for a 21 year old
Great vid. I would just add that the US' confiscation of Russia's capital has really displayed to other countries what will happen if they don't toe western monetary lines. Countries like Japan are already having to abandon buying US Treasuries so they can save their currencies, so slowly but surely, countries will be forced to at least diversify away from the dollar. No country wants to be squeezed by the Fed's overcorrection in interest rates anymore.
Japan is definitely within the American sphere of influence, so how far removed is Japan from securing US strategic interests?
Yes Russian capital was a poisoned bullet, USA confiscated 300billions (less than a year of Russian gas revenue) but inflicted a lot more damage on themselves - non western countries started to dump dollars, US assets, and leave US systems
@@sinoroman Well considering Japan conducted an intervention buying program for a record 63 billion last fall to defend the yen without having to raise rates (first time since '98), I'd say their currency is more important to them than perpetuating the US' monetary Ponzi.
" the US' confiscation of Russia's capital has really displayed to other countries what will happen if they don't toe western monetary lines." If totalitarianism and country-gobbling spread, they'll be worse off than any inconveniences of toeing Western monetary lines.
@@sluggo206 lol enjoy eating bugs and changing gender in your "free 😂 county"
All fiat currencies eventually self destruct
11:45 I actually can understand where MMT’s coming from. The idea is that the inflation caused by printing - assuming you invest the new money well - will be less that the return on the investments you made with the money.
This makes a lot of sense when you look at the obvious wins like the Hoover Dam, but in the modern era, the low hanging fruit is all gone. Now what’s left is pretty low ROI, and honestly it’s questionable what % even makes it to the investments vs. Graft.
I think the biggest issue with MMT is how no government actually follows it. Everyone seems to remember the printing part, but no government ever remembers you’re only supposed to print *during stagnation & recessions*
And most importantly; *tighten the money supply back up via taxing those dollars back from the economy during booms and growth*
Well there isthe theory and then what Governments actually do. If policy needs to be tightened according to MMT, would any government do that before an election? - especially given how much interest rates have gone up, and not even followed inflation to its fullest extent.
It's like Keynesianism. Borrow in bad times and repay in good. Sounds good in theory. Except what governments do is borrow, and then borrow even more.
You cant correct a system based on a lie. It wont ever be sane. Paper Money Is a lie. Usury Is a rigged system, therefore banks printing Money as intrest loan Is deeply flawed and rigged. Therefore there Is no way to make It work
Exactly! So many seem to misinterpret what MMT means. The author of this theory (Kelton) mentioned numerous times that money printing only works when inflation is low. Although one flaw I think with MMT is that inflation was kept abnormally low over the past decades because of good demographics and globalisation. Now the gravy train is ending, and I think inflation is going to become particularly sticky as poor demographics push up wages and deglobalisation increases the costs of production as well, alongside the consequent worsening in geopolitical stability worldwide. MMT would've been a perfectly good solution had it been properly applied a few decades prior.
I remember when I first learned what MMT first meant/what it entailed I was like “Wow, what a spectacular idea that will never be implemented” lmao. It DOES have merit, but in a country where the two political parties are largely only concerned with fighting a culture war for votes while silently extracting as much wealth into their own pockets as possible, where one side has LITERALLY been holding the global economy hostage for political leverage, the assumption that Congress could ever agree on when to remove/add money to the economy at any time EVER is truly laughable.
Printing doesn't cause inflation. That's just a liberal myth. What causes inflation are crisis (which are cyclical in capitalism) and the resultant lack of commodities and increase in labour costs. The result is an increase in costs. If the commodities in the market start to increase via optimizations in the line of production the inflation goes away, and these optimizations can be done by currency emitting.
You should make a video on how best to prepare for all of these inevitable events. Even historically, how people survived these periods the best in the past
Learn real skills. Understand food. Know your neighbors. Have kids.
@@nickgarnero9843 I'm not sure about the last one. With dark age looming in the future, kids should be the last thing on your mind. Having no kids will allow you to be more flexible.
@@MrSandro141 Educating your kids properly would allow us to evade this mess that we live in currently in the future.
@@MrSandro141 there is no future without having children. Fear not!
@@MrSandro141 And, also allows you to die alone and with regret. Not to mention, that children are the only retirement plan in times of crisis.
Housing prices won't drop like you described at the end because the inflation of housing prices has been driven almost entirely by a combination of zoning overregulation, construction overregulation and immigration, meaning it won't be solved with that change and frankly could be solved right now without it.
Yeah, but in such a financial crisis, where everything is upside down, that is one thing that the government could do to win back approval.
@@shorewall Well, I for one would not mind the government taking an axe to that overregulation and reducing immigration.
@@shorewall Government winning back approval by stopping immigration entirely and starting mass deportations...
Only in my wildest dreams. They'll probably just keep catering to minorities forever instead.
Also market manipulations of hedge fonds does not help too.
@@heyhoe168 true but the three sources I listed are literally 90% of the source of the problem in repeated studies.
Unlike Rudyard Lynch, I am old enough to remember Nixon and Carter. Stagflation and the Misery Index and gas lines. We did recover from that, so I still have some hope Biden’s crew will be remembered with the same contempt as Carter.
Oh don't worry he will, in fact this seems to be a repeat of the 70s it feels, crazy politician (Nixon/Trump) and one lame duck president (Carter/Biden).
@Quinn Johnson only Trump doesn't have a real scandal they can sink him with, so he won't be set aside like Nixon.
@@quinnjohnson9750 I think you are misevaluating Nixon. He was a Rockefeller Republican, and quite willing to go quasi-socialist on domestic economics. He was quite bad on civil liberties, so as a near libertarian, I think he had the worst features of both parties.
Trump is too much of an active issue for anyone to be reasonable, but he has been strawmanned a bit much.
@@tomhalla426 I wonder how many people know Nixon created the EPA.
We didn't learn anything from the carter years look what got back in .. Biden and the socialist democratic party. And now the economy and the moral fiber of the country is spinning down the toilet again.
It's not "doomed" in the sense of it's gonna fail, but it's certainly being challenged. I don't think China and Russia (the main backers of BRICS) have the capabilities to fund themselves, muchtheless an economic union, in the same way that the West does. Like even right now in a recession with rampant inflation, we're still very comfortable from a financial standpoint. But our rivals are so much worse. Even assuming the Russian Federation and People's Republic of China will exist in another 20 years, they will still have to trade with the USD because the Yen and the Rubble are completely worthless outside of their countries and respective trading partner. Hell, people would rather have the Euro or Pound be the new standard instead of what China and Russia have to offer.
BRICCS is a joke
People criticize how the dollar was weaponized against Russia for invading Ukraine. Do these same people not think China would do this to the nth degree of the yuan was king?
Dollar won’t be falling in our lifetimes
Yeah, barring a black swan event, I don't see the international system the US built falling anytime soon.
Cool it with the hot takes but yea even if the dollar won't be the reserve currency forever it's not like there are other alternatives, maybe we'll see a return to mercantilism and bilateral trade
If the dollar is no longer the world's reserve currency expect America to be similar to Germany in the 1920s cause those dollars will come home. Nixon taking the dollar off the gold standard was the worst mistake you could make.
Don’t forget that if the dollar loses value bc of ‘dedollarization’ many of these countries will no longer be able to sell there excess production to the USA. That leaves them with fewer customers n less income. Mike Pettis makes this point very well in recent Blockworks interview.
For real. Like this video said, every country is manipulating their currency to lower its value, so they can export and make money and have jobs. The US dollar being strong does not help Americans, except in buying cheap crap from China.
Our Industry left, our jobs left, and we are struggling to make ends meet. If the Dollar goes down, it becomes cheaper to have industry in the US, more jobs, and more exports.
@@shorewall Absolutely, and since the US (really all of NA) already has a lot of the natural resources (with a few missing) it needs for a modern economy, it would become an export powerhouse.
So few Americans actually benefit from the current system. It seems only large banks, executives, n the defense industry benefit.
Peter zeihan, love him or hate him, points out just how royally screwed the world is without the united states, the us polices the shipping lanes keeping state sponsored piracy down, the usd's strength let's other countries avoid the worst case scenario and mass famine, the usd being the world currency also allows nations to take on debt to fund projects, if the us or the usd fell, the world would fall into chaos overnight.
Of course this is not even getting into the fact that the us has essentially prevented far more wars than it's started, without the us around, china and russia would have been on a expansion spree decades ago.
On the other hand it forces them to sell commodities internally thus helping the general population.
4:41 NO DONT CITE THAT WEBSITE LMAO. They use the dreaded “productivity vs wages” graph which is taken from 2 seperate sources, in 2 seperate time frames and smashed them together. Not to mention a few things, 1. Most of the graphs have a inflection point earlier or later than 71. 2. The Bretton woods system as well as the gold standard as a whole was doomed to fail at that point. They had no choice but to float the dollar.
Are you implying that both Bretton Woods and the Gold standard were flawed global systems?
FYI, 80% of all dollars were not printed since the pandemic. There was a change to how M1 money supply was calculated in 2020 to make it include savings accounts. Previously it only included checking accounts. It's insane how much this misinformation has gotten around on this front. One has to wonder if this has contributed to inflation, as psychology plays a big role.
The real increase was 20-25%. We've seen roughly 20% cumulative inflation since 2020 and it's continuing to cool off as dollars are removed from circulation.
@johner more than you'll ever have in your life
@johner enough to pay for an education you clearly didn't receive
If I had a teacher like you during my schooling years I wouldn't have ended up writing this comment. Keep up the great work
This guy is a 20 year old college drop out "historian", take everything with a hint of salt
@@SisckoImper well who says that you need university/college to be educated and successful
@@ZakSword_TxS I never said you can't be educated or successful, but you shouldn't trust most people that aren't historians to actually give you a complex history lesson.
@@SisckoImper well you just proved my point. Educated = having a university degree on the subject
@@ZakSword_TxS Restate your sentence, you made no sense.
China is the most indebted country on the planet, not the US when including ALL debt, not just "national". And when you understand that the RMB is those manipulated currency in the world, one can understand all debt in China is essentially national.
Oh and all that money the US "printed" in 2020? Yes, China has done that every few months for the last decade.
Exactly! And don't forget that the yuan is more or less pegged to the dollar (the exchange rate barely changes), so it's not even an independent currency.
I find it funny how poorly this video has actually aged ngl
Finally, my dose of pessimistic optimism has arrived
Been a fan of yours for a long time. I wish I could have a conversation between you Krout and JJ Mcollough tbh. Dinner and drinks would be on me.
The meat riding is CRAZY
JJ is a fed boy lmao
24:32 if you forgot USA and Europe stole russian money, so it's no longer the case. That's actually the reason why everyone is trying to switch.
You really called the usa more religious than russia. Please tell me which country has all this lgbt and feminism and liberalism. Maybe a larger percent of americans identify as christian on the census, but in practice traditional and religious values are much more alive in russia. As for China, Chinese "atheism" is nothing like western atheism, is has nothing to do with the enlightenment or western secularism. Chinese have never had a formally organized religion like christianity, but they have always been spiritual. Chinese today are way more nationalistic and and proud of their traditions and history than americans, and would more likely to see having kids as a duty.
Also, you saying how China abuses it allies but America doesn't is really not correct. China is actually remarkably forgiving about its loans, way more than western countries.
@@insectilluminatigetshrekt5574 You are right but China is like USA, They are the bullies against asian countries... They have ZERO respect towards others and think everything is theirs...
I'm not so sure I've been particularly enjoying what's been going on behind the scenes as a whole. Sure I got bailed out from COVID, largely from being in an industry that was heavily impacted by it - so that one wasn't my fault. Still wondering if I should take what I have and peace out before the whole meta gets flushed down the toilet.
Peace out where? The US is more or less the least bad place you can be in the event of an economic collapse.
Get trade skills, get education, get letters of recommendation. The ability to do work will ALWAYS be valuable, even if the past things you worked for (like money or benefits) won't maintain their full value.
What industry are you in, if you don't mind me asking?
@johner3364 Barring nuclear war? He's 100% correct.
The next team up is the Euro-Dollar
Or Eddies i suppose you can call it
Sounds like a nova idea
Already exists and is just as vulnerable
Sounds like an Ed Ed n Eddy episode.
dear god, here comes the corp wars.
11:40 If that is roughly what MMT thinks, then you should know MMT has been pretty popular among Economists in Argentina for at least half a century. It's results, not so much.
Considering the current debate for dollarization, let us hope nothing happens with the US dollar within the foreseeable future.
Love your content man!😊😊
If the dollar fails my 10,000 rounds of ammunition I have stored up will deff come in handy
Great video whatifalthist!
at 2:50, i call absolute bullshit. how many countries have china and russia invaded in the 21st century at all? sure, russia invaded ukraine, but the us invaded iraq and libya for years for no cause whatsoever, and we have military bases in every continent in the world, yet freak out when china opens up a single foreign base, and on top of that, the reason why the western european countries of britain, france, and germany were evil was because they were simply able to colonzie africa and south asia before the us, and don't act like the us wasn't doing harm when it took over cuba and the philippines, and hawaii. also, it's not even true that much of those countries you mentioned "need" our protection, since countries like canada have good geography, and germany would only have to raise its defense budget somewhat to match countries like switzerland and finland, which have strong militaries yet spend less on defense than the us, and can thus actually spend money on stuff that helps them
Canada has good geography because of the US. It will probably be part of the US in 50 years anyway.
One thing that I'd like to add is almost all of the worlds debit is in us dollars. If somehow the world decided to step back from the dollar, All countries would still need dollars for 30 years as they pay back there bonds.
a) It's not true that almost all debt is in dollars. b) a dollar collapse would make it worthless and therby the real value of the remaining debt would be very low c) It's a stretch to assume that in such a case, bonds would still be paid back.
Surely at that point everyone would default? What would the USA do, invade the entire world?
Find it, fuck it, forget it. We're doomed
I'm not much of an economist, but this did seem like a sensible look at the state of the dollar globally. Thank you for this.
God be with you out there everybody. ✝️ :)
Me over here who just wants to pass my exams and graduate and then realizing the dollar might collapse
Same bro same.
That's what they said 100 years ago
Same, about to graduate college by the end of this year and I see how we are about to enter Great Depression 2.0 and also a 2nd American Civil War along with it. it makes me fearful and hateful that I was born around this time and how fucked over I am and how only in the end it will be the next generation who will have a good future and not me. it pisses me the fuck off.
@James Lopez ugh ahhhhueuue they said it at another time so it's never true uughhhhuuuu
@@quinnjohnson9750 You'll get through, it just means your middle ages will be the best and not your twenties and thirties, which isn't as sexy (especially if you're a woman) but its better than living a life of pure misery.
A quick correction, as someone who works within the Australian Tax Office, we also tax our citizens for overseas income, usually to ensure that their HECS debts are paid
Correction about the Bulgarian and Romanian Lion (Lev and Lei respectively). It it is derived from the Dutch daalders (dollars) which had an emblem of a lion and were in wide circulation in the Ottoman Empire in the 19th century.
Honestly, as someone looking at the markets don’t underestimate the ability for politicians to kick the can down the road, I’m predicting we get another 22-29 (rough time frame) bull market similar to how the banking system was bailed out in 1907 by JP Morgan (or 08 by the government).
The simplest reason why BRICS cannot displace the Western world order is that no one actually wants to live in BRICS nations. All the best and brightest engineers, doctors, businessmen, lawyers,programmers etc that live in BRICS dream of moving to Western nations and do so at the first chance they get. There is no equivalent demographic movement from the West to BRICS in anwy way because its a downgrade in living standard in almost every way.
How long before things changed though? more and more bad news coming out of USA, The UK isolated themselves even from their neighbours, France? Unless youre african descendants nobody wants to move there. Germany's economy prospect is grim.
@@harukrentz435 Dude, Iran and Afghanistan don't like each other, Russia is a wartime economy, China central bank controls its currency, Brazil is culturally western, South Africa is unstable and India is in a perpetual Muslim vs Hindu conflict. The only solution to the NATO/5 Eyes dominance, is if all emergent economies ban the dollar.
You miss a HUGE factor in the "aging population problem" - automation and AI. Huge populations will simply no longer need a huge work force to maintain them. This is already true - but is being hidden by "makework" jobs that simply don't need doing and just add extra layers of needless middlemen to society.
The problem with the AI argument is just that it’s a big “what if” we don’t really have any tangible evidence that this shift to AI is coming, that if it comes it will be as revolutionary as many say and the if it comes how it will affect the global society. I see a lot of engineering nerds acting like AI is some kind of silver bullet that will replace all jobs from being a factory to teaching all of which I am skeptical of at best.
@@thedukeofchutney468 you shouldn't dismiss that what if too quickly. It's only been 3 years and many new technologies have been introduced to the market. It's only a matter of time before manufacturing becomes fully automated and the future population no longer need to work as much as we do.
@subliminalfalllenangel2108 Introduced to the market in our current “stable” (relatively speaking) globalized, American lead state. We can’t rely on that in the future. Plus while you can’t completely ignore hypotheticals they really aren’t all that valuable when comparing it to hard facts. The amount of advancement in ai we would need to completely smooth out these problems is far greater then anything we will likely create, let alone implement. Furthermore, even if we can implement ai to this degree we would likely over corse correct and have there be far too few jobs for people to have. Either way it is HIGHLY unlikely that ai will exist in that capacity and even if it does it will almost certainly spell doom and not salvation.
The US is more Carthage or Athens than it is Rome in my honest opinion, they've been really bad at empire building
Culturally British
Spiritually Roman
Geographically Chinese
Europe and Japan are part of our Empire. Hell, for a long time, the whole world was part of our empire. It's just not like any empire you've seen before.
@@shorewall I think you stretch the definition of empire. Projecting power somewhere doesn't make it part of your empire.
@@blartversenwaldiii if America barks, they jump. It's an Empire.
@@algorithmgeneratedanimegir1286 one can say the same about Russia and China who you have to share global power with. Rome didn't have to share it's power with anyone
I wouldn't be surprised that AI arrives right at the last moment to give a huge new boost to productivity, delaying / preventing a collapse
AI is probably just gonna automate the few low skill jobs left in this country more than anything, putting millions out of work while the rich reap the rewards.
Who cares if it does. Our founding fathers never cared if we have the reserve currency. I have skills to pay the bills. We could just go back to a gold standard and quit these ridiculous regulations and shrink the bureaucracy. 👍🏽
Metallica and Sabaton ran the economies back then, hell yeah!
Finance bro, here. The kind with a degree, and CFA, and CPA, and who has worked in investment banking on Wall Street.
I’m going to go ahead and suggest you take this video down, because you have so many fundamental mistakes as to make it worthless.
I stopped watching at about 8:30 where you had just finished saying that over 80% of the currency has been printed since COVID and threw up an very misleading graph that doesn’t even say what you think it says.
Plenty of good data does exist, I was able to find good discussions from both the various Federal Reserves themselves, as well as Big 4 analysis with a few quick google searches, but I also happen to be aware of some other information that’s out there, and may be of use to you to know.
First - that graph - the money supply starts at $15, not zero, and goes up to $20. Second, that graph is a graph of M1. There are four M measures, each once containing all of the previous. That is, M3 contains M2, which contains M1, which contains M0. In May of 2020, the definitions of M1 and M2 were changed, making M1 larger without changing anything in the real world, at all. No money printing required. As for where you got the idea that 80% of the money in circulation has been “printed” since COVID, I have no idea where you got that idea, but I will tell you that it’s WILDLY incorrect.
This graph has been thrown around on Fox News and other idiot media to scare rubes who know nothing about anything. And you fell for it and made a video about it.
I’m not saying that money supply didn’t increase during COVID; it did. But it’s also been decreasing steadily now for a while. Don’t believe everything you see in the media. It’s half truths and misdirection in most cases, meant to make the rubes angry at people who vote for the other side and live in places unlike their own. And everybody falls for it. Be better than that.
But seriously, stick to what you can reasonably learn and understand. Financial economics doesn’t look to be one of those things.
Holy shit get boosted imagine writing this essay defending the federal reserve and the banking cartels lmao.
At 3:09 the presenter of this video claims that other countries like China and Russia would use "their currencies as a sword to further their national interests". I wonder if he is aware of the fact that America uses its dollar to sanction other countries into submission and that it steals the sovereign assets of countries? The presenter is really being disingenuous to a remarkable extent that makes it difficult for one to take his opinions seriously.
Short answer: Yes
Long answer: Yeeeeeeeeeees
I believe regional currencies will make a difference in how things play out. For example, many countries will still use the dollar and others will start to use the Yuan or Ruble. But I could see the Thai Bhat or Singaporean Dollar gaining power in their region. As well as the Mexican Peso being a more prominent alternative to the U.S. dollar in our region. Dollarized economies might have dual currencies implemented. Such as dollars and yuan being used interchangeably.
At 24:40 the world buisness freedom map having Greenland Sweden and Finland then somalia as the top 4 most buisness freedom countries had me laughing a little.
I appreciate this man's content and I almost didn't want to comment this but I had to.
The first 3 make sense, Somalia idk tho. Somalia is probably included on the list from the sheer fact there’s no government to regulate the minuscule amount of businesses located there.
@@FunkiyI actually can say Somalia is one of the most free capital markets; little laws and regulations, notable ones being religious laws such as producing alcohol, pork and environmental damage.
I actually have a couple businesses in Somalia one being a farm and I’m expanding yearly into different agricultural markets.
The reason is Somalia’s history in trading with the Chinese.
anarchy is total freedom
@CCLUCI Does somalia have any of those predatory loans with China? Not saying american Gov. Isn't predatory either but I'm just curious. And it sounds interesting man. How is it there and the government in Somalia lately. Have they felt the impact of the Ukraine war with good yet?
@@alfoster09 To my knowledge Somalia doesn’t have a big outstanding debt to China at the moment.
There is a rich cultural history between Somalia and China since the Silk Road.
It is good in Somalia a lot of opportunities that are not appreciated enough, such as our position the Horn of Africa.
There are developments being made to the ports and roads and logistical sector.
It has been good the government is corrupt at times but not overreaching its judiciary as we Somali people are, free and don’t like meddling from government in our day to day life.
There has been a shortage of grains since we import close to a 100% of our grain from both Ukraine and Russia, the people have received humanitarian aid from China and more is being sent.
before people say gold and silver just know that Europe and Use have most of the gold reserves in the world, which doesn't really change the status of the dollar
There is no national currency , for the forseeable future, that can even challenge the dollar, let alone dislodge it. Because they're all fiat currencies too. In an utopian scenario, only an energy-based currency could replace it. Bitcoin was an attempt, but state power won't allow it, as we've seen in Nigeria and China. So the dollar it is.
Yeah, I believed in Bitcoin for a bit, but the powers that be have no incentive to allow it to replace their fiat system.
And yet the Bitcoin hash rate just keeps rising. China is getting ready to start promoting Bitcoin and cryptocurrency again in Hong Kong in June. What we discovered from the China Bitcoin mining "ban" is that it didn't work. Bitcoin's doing just fine and is here to stay.
@@randyjones3050 What i took from it , was that state power will never give up it's hold willingly. China is pushing cbdc's really hard. Most of Crypto is already captured, the proof of stake thing. So, Bitcoin will keep going, but only as a store of value.
The dollar is a terrible currency. The only redeeming quality is that it’s better than any other currency right now.
The defeat of ukraine wont help one bit
Define defeat
@@peterroberts4415 not retaining it's territorial integrity
@@ivanlozano2019 Then what is victory for Russia? They wanted Regime change, to get rid of the Nazis and Gay Marriage. How do they define victory? I guess beggars can't be choosers.
So productivity growth trajectory remained the same while compensation barely moved. Ok I believe this totally although, to gain a clearer picture I suggest adding another metric. For instance, if you look at the cost of, let's say a car before the assembly line method of production, the average American couldn't afford it. After production exploded thanks to innovation, the cost plummeted.
I would argue that compensation for building said car didnt change much.
Therefore if you were to only analyze production and compensation metrics, it would appear like the employees were banging out way more cars while receiving the same salary. But when you realize that those same workers are now driving to work in a car the couldn't dream of affording prior, the it becomes clearer what actually happened.
A country worth watching is Georgia. Check their birth profile - in terms of demographic change, they're probably best-placed out of any European nation. Diverse manufacturing economy and agriculture too. Well-situated to take advantage of Turkey/Azerbaijan trade (plus access to oil and gas, although they have extensive hydropower).
Russia is probably their biggest problem.
A very interesting look and I guess it's proof that honesty really is the best policy
Almost everything ive gotten from the grocery story has gone up massively over the past few years like before to make a comparison i would have to think to my childhood were most candy bars were around 50p when i grew up it was 75p (2017) now in less that 4 years its around 1 pound
Sup dude, love your work, really getting into the Common Ground series. I'd be really interested in seeing a Common Ground episode with Pilgrims Pass. Hope this gets noticed!
Super good video. One thing I’ve noticed is that you refer to Saudi Arabia as a close US ally that would fight on the US side in a hypothetical war. I’ve seen this point in a couple other videos too. I don’t think Saudi Arabia would fight with us. I think they would be at best, neutral. We see now with the recent peace deals with iran, new friendship between them and China, as well as the fact that they are a dictatorship, Saudi Arabia doesn’t align with the US very much. Peace with Iran now makes it so Saudi Arabia and the US no longer share an enemy. I think Saudi Arabia will get closer and closer with China over the next couple years
I'm not sure. The Saudis have a trillion of USD in holdings. The only reason they took Yuan for payment is because the U.S. is pulling out and the Chinese offered military protection and peace deals with Iran in place of the U.S.. As you probably know, the Saudis don't trust their population to run the military so they're always outsourcing the most important aspects of it. The Saudis would much rather have the U.S. stand instead of it go down. Yes, they have a complicated relationship with the U.S. but that's the price you pay for hoarding all the wealth of a country.
One analyst described Saudi Arabia more or less working with the USA and using the dollar as a means to gain protection and sort of swear fealty. I think that if you put a gun to their head the Saudis would side with the Americans, but since they are are relatively small nation with almost ZERO natural resources they will try to placate everyone as best they can.
@@thedukeofchutney468 Saudi Arabia would be the best kind of ally you can get, after pointing a gun at someones head. ;) "Zero" natural resources .. probably not the right description for saudi arabia. They have at least one - and a lot of it.
Saudis still need to attract Western capital and talent in order to build their useless vanity projects, not to mention the need for Western tourists to diversity their economy. Like others mentioned, they have invested a lot of their export money into Western assets so they actually have the ability to exercise leverage against the West, however, they have little leverage against China who can shop around for oil from Russia and Iran. So in the long term it doesn't seem that the Saudis would prefer the Chinese over the Americans, whose allies still need the Saudis.
This is before we even consider that the yuan is broadly linked to the dollar, thanks to capital controls, so Saudi Arabia doesn't have to do much guesswork here - it's still the same currency.
@TylerDurden-pk5km They have Oil, but that is far from stable. Plus money means very little when you have no farmland or water. Plus getting their oil to other markets like China also kind of assumes that the Americans are going to keep all the seas relatively safe for trade, which looks unlikely. Furthermore, if they want to transport it over land not only is this insanely expensive but unlike Russia there are well over a dozen fractured and putt right hostile nations between China and Arabia, plus massive natural barriers including the Tibetan plateau and the tallest mountain range on earth (the Himalayas) as well as vast desserts. So all in all oil alone won’t solve much of the Saudis problems.
Actually, no. Inflation can be VERY GOOD for poor people with high fixed-rate debt at low interest, like a big home loan taken out a couple years ago - it depends a LOT on circumstances. It most harms people with fixed-rate investments, especially retirement accounts, for example, with the worst effects being on the upper middle class.
The middle and working classes are always the ones hit hardest by inflation. The very poor don't have money anyway, and often have debt that gets erased by inflation, and the rich have assets that grow proportional to inflation. But the middle and working classes require income, which is what gets destroyed.
Ah yes, we can live in our houses without fear of repossession. We will fear starvation instead.
Good for staying poor I suppose.
What concerns me is that we keep regulating and sanctioning and boycotting other areas. We're quickly approaching a situation where our financial powers and going to be that strong and the reply from these countries will be "fine, bro, we'll just ignore you".
"Food, fuel and sex dolls, the basics for human life". Dude, just hypothesising here a little and looking out for a homie but im thinking, maybe just maybe, you need to get out a little more. Great video btw.
Whatifalthist: there is a light at the end of the tunnel
Me as an intellectual: and it comes with a mushroom cloud
This isn't the video we've been waiting for!
civil war in Brazil? Meh I'd not go that far
The reason for the covid stimulus was so that poor and laid-off people wouldn't lose necessities. Yes, that's because Congress won't solve the real issues and it's avoiding hard decisions, but throwing more people into homelessness and death is unacceptable and not what other industrialized countries would do. Having 2-8% inflation is not the end of the world, and is better than some alternatives. The cause of the current US inflation is disruptions in supply lines, sudden swings in the types of demand, climate/virus events that killed egg-laying hens and crops, etc. None of that is due the Fed printing too much money. A lot of the debt is because of Republican tax cuts for the rich, and not allowing the IRS to go after tax cheats. The US debt -to-GDP is still less than in WWII or than many other large countries.
Someone's been watching Peter Zeihan videos again...🙄🙄🙄
I've been really successful in the stock market and am teaching it at my local college. People need to stop hating on America for their own shortcomings
I just want to say that there are a few things I disagree with am glad that you just tell it how it is rather than what your party wants to believe which is hard to find nowadays. You keep it up man
The price increases during covid werent because of inflation, they were price gouging by corporations to retain profit margins.
Only one thing I found in your video that is possibly wrong about the US NAVY protecting global trade. you must research more about the Chinese Navy and their rapid growth over 10 years.
Is the Chinese Navy protecting Global trade?
no. The Chinese Navy can barely project to their own coastline, it may be "blue water capable" but not by much.
This is the first video I watched of yours where I was malding through half of it.
Agree with the international finance part...
The inflation part was junk because you treated inflation like everybody else does, like it's one soul metric and it's just not. Rule number one, never trust the CPI for crap, it doesn't make any sense and it doesn't factor for the different forms of inflation.
The four major types of inflation which we do separate out for very good reasons are: asset inflation (homes, college degrees, stocks, ect), commodities inflation (oil, gasoline, bread, your haircut, child care, ect), labor inflation (wages, compensation , bonuses, and benefits), and monetary deflation (The value of your currency versus the value of other currencies)
The problem for the West is that we have had a shitload of asset inflation, keeping millennials from being able to afford homes. Low commodity and labor inflation until covid (buying a high quality TV is cheaper than ever but keeping up with the new bills like cell phone and internet payments is putting behind our parents.) And stagnant monetary deflation until COVID which it actually went positive which is why the US dollar is now more valuable than the euro.
If you ever want times of true prosperity, you want labor inflation around 4 to 5%, asset inflation of two to three percent, commodities inflation of 0 to 1%, and you only have to worry about monetary inflation if you are a major trading nation.
Also, while we printed a lot of money during covid, we've already taken a significant portion of that back out of the economy. Please look at m0 reports given out by the Fed.
Have you considered creating transcriptions of your video with the sources attached? This is stuff I want to study. thanks for the great videos.
Without watching the video. I personally think the dollar is doomed. due to not having a gold standard. But let's see if the video can change my mind.
Gold standard is a stupidity if you're the most powerful country in the world... Imagine having the gold standard and letting other countries control your currency by dumping gold intro the market and thus devaluing your coin...
@@raduf.3873 Not to mention how disastrous it would be for the tech industry. If gold becomes the new standard it will make gold worth so much you can practically not use it on a industrial scale anymore.
I think the taxpayer and citizen-investor will get forked, but the donor class will just consolidate more property and IP
@@raduf.3873 America does a great job of devaluing its own 'coin' right now.
@@chico9805 comparing with other currencies the dollar is not devaluing at all
im fed up with people shilling graeber's ideological book as an objective historical text
Is the Dollar Doomed?
Short answer: Yes
Long answer:
YEEEEESSSSSSSSSSS
A dollar collapse would be a long term good thing for Americans.
I’ve not heard such clear intelligence good takes it’s nothing but hysteria on social media but you seem very smart would like to see more videos on more subjects also like hear your take on stock and all this sort of stuff also think it will bring in views
When using a GDP please, for God's sake, don't use nominal GDP, use PPP. Countries play with their exchange rates in any direction, you can't trust nominals
You're 21? Are your first video's made when you where 13?
Yeah, if you listen to his old videos he sounds pre pubescent
Correction inflation is not when the government prints money. Inflation is when the price of goods and services goes up. The government can print money but if that money is used to produce more goods and services there will be no inflation.
Before Video:
Sorry man, I have to side with Peter on this one I don't think the dollar is going to fail, hurt yes, but fall from the reserve currency, no.
After Video:
I forget how much Peter has had an effect on you, I agree with 90% of your points and the other 10% it's not that I disagree, but instead, I see them as more pessimistic than you. I truly think if we can get the dollar to force rest it would help ALOT, but the downside of that is I personally will get screwed over bc I chose to give up a chance to go into high-paying fields off someone else's penny (I'm 20) to help the next generation learn, off my own penny and student loans, and a reset now will screw me over harder then anything I can possibly think of bc that means the debt I have from being in school will get much MUCH harder to pay (I say this as the school district is trying to cut my pay again and the union is struggling to help) and they will come after me and the family I still live with.
If we go through this financial crisis, I don't think they are gonna be going after student loans. More like the stock market crashes, debts are vaporized, prices go down and wages go up.
@Shorewall my student loans are federal so they don't vanish but I'm looking at it from the market hasn't even crashed yet and the district is trying to cut my income hard and the only place I can think of where the 4 year degree that I will have could be transferred outside education is the military officer core, and I dont expect teacher wages to go up, in fact I expect them to crash bc alot of people (mostly conservatives sadly) have become convinced that schools are worthless and we are no better then babysitters and deserve to live in poverty for being unable to "get a real job"
Aren't you quoting M1 figures ("dollars in existence")? This is false . USA printed a lot of money but it amounts to less that 20% during covid. Some of the money from M1 transfered to M2 making it look that big.
It’s why Jesus in the Bible beat the money changers in the temple with a whip.