Full podcast episode: th-cam.com/video/r4wLXNydzeY/w-d-xo.html Lex Fridman podcast channel: th-cam.com/users/lexfridman Guest bio: John Mearsheimer is an international relations scholar at University of Chicago. He is one of the most influential and controversial thinkers in the world on the topics of war and power.
Look Mr. John Mearsheimer and Lex Friedman - Taiwan was returned to China by Japan in 1945 via the Yalta & Potsdam Agreements, and the Cairo & Tehran Declaration of 1943 and 1944 by POTUS Franklin D Roosevelt & USSR's leader Joseph Stalin, with the UK's PM Churchill looking on the floor during these conferences. Also, Japan ruled Taiwan for 55 years from 1890 thru the end of WW2 in 1945. Also, China will NOT attack Taiwan, but can blockade it instead.
@HoLeeFook68 Do you happen to know about Chinese “Sun Tzu's Art of War”? One of its main tricks is “Win the game without fighting”. As long as China keeps rising, Taiwan will return its motherland automatically without any war. Now Taiwanese have already had no more superiority in front of Chinese in almost all aspects. In addition, getting ride of occupation and returning its sovereignty are Japanese later on real destinations, instead of fighting against China. China rising is Japan’s big opportunity to be away from American colonization in Japan since WWII, same to Germany.
@HoLeeFook68 Yes, without Chinese 3 great inventions, same as Americans, you could still live in cold and chilly caves like monkey, knowing nothing about outside and how to write.
I’m so glad that John told the truth that US care about Taiwan because Taiwan is an important US assets and not because of the political bs about democracy or people in Taiwan. 😂
Totally predictable. It’s foreign policy and Dr. M is a foreign policy realist. We supported Taiwan when it was a one party state. Where you born 15 years ago?
Taiwan have low IQ they are easy to brainwashed, they are dead set fighting for democracy but democracy is not the same as freedom, Taiwan will never be Europe The white man see the world in black and white, except George Washington but he is dead long ago so we can't really be good anymore The America today is not different from the colonialism Europe
Im blown away how honest and to the point this guy is. None of this "democracy must protect other democracy" bullcrap I see on the internet all the time.
That's because most of the west's spoilt population are so privileged they have become idealistic unfortunately the world isnt as nice as people like to think and all that idealism promote aggression against us
IR should be a lot more than offensive realism, Mearshiemer is known for getting many things wrong. He's just good at presenting an defending his ideas, doesn't mean they're correct. For example he thought that after the collapse of the soviet union the power vacuum would bring in an era of European nuclear proliferation and an increased chance in war in-between NATO allies. This of course could not be further from the case. @@lovecontemplation8607
I’m retired Navy and I agree 100% with John. Having real world experience in blue water AND amphibious operations … it is indescribably difficult to land, in force, on a heavily defended island. Your losses would be incredible even if you could make it ashore. It would require the entire destruction of the island and everything on it ….. and at that point, what have you accomplished?
I don't think people really understand that's not what they want to do. Chinas main plan is to blockade Taiwan. Taiwan imports nearly everything it needs. China is developing missiles and a navy to strike the u.s navy and blockade Taiwan. They don't need to invade a fully strengthened Taiwan to win. I think the estimate is 3 weeks until Taiwan runs out of fuel for electricity and military which would make the task significantly easier. Also the lack of food and basic necessities would be a major issue if the u.s navy couldn't operate close enough to taiwan to stop a blockade.
There is only one evil country in the world who thrives on more wars feeding their military industrial complex no matter who the president is talk about freedom democracy BS
@@malkeir9781I think it that’s easier said than done. US likely won’t be able to produce them at nearly the same efficiency. Also it’s not just able us being able to produce them, it’s also about not letting China get their hands on that technology
@@gupeter2922 China will get their hands on it. They are making progress on chip upgrades. This economic war is only going a single direction. USA is continuing to isolate itself and it is in the process of destroying its own currency. Hyper inflation within 10 years. At best high inflation 6-7% for a long time but unlikely. Will end in a global war. Winner gets to decide what happens after that.
That's more of interest to the Chinese. The newest Huawei phone uses a chip from 2019. Japan would be next if Taiwan was invaded. It'd be a malignant expansion.
Long time US-Taiwan expat here. The western media hypes an imminent 'conflict' much more than Taiwanese people here. Most are fine with keeping the "status quo' here.
Agreed. He is not even offering anything new or different from dozens of other Western-centric analysts (I understand that his specialty is Russia-Europe geopolitics, not East Asia, and here he is just mechanistically applying his model developed to explain Russia-Europe to China-Taiwan).
If Lex is going to do that, he needs to bring on two or three Taiwanese with different viewpoints. Just like westerners, Taiwanese can not agree on how to deal with threat from China.
A few counter point to this: 1. China wants to take Taiwan not because it has TSMC. Even if the island does not have TSMC China wants to unite with it because it is part of China. If it really comes down to a hot war, you cannot count on China will "tread lightly" because of TSMC. In fact, if China actually manages to take TW with TSMC intact, the engineers that actually matters will already been moved out and someone on our side will blow that infrastructure up like a certain pipeline. 2. Comparing this to Normandy is a mistake, sure they're both amphibious assaults that requires huge landing force, but the similarities stops there. Normandy stand in front of a whole continent. Aside from the stockpile that's already built up, they can manufacture their own weapons, ammunition, oil, coal, steel. TW is an island the size of Maryland, it isn't even self sufficient in food let alone anything else you might need to fight a war. We're talking about a few weeks supply for energy to keep the lights on and the trucks running. 3. China has MLRS that can hit the island directly from the mainland, a fraction the cost of what it is taking Russia to hit Ukrainian targets. Not to mention perhaps the largest and most advanced drone fleet. If by the time Chinese ground forces decides to land, and there are still a formidable defense force on the beachfront, then the air force, navy and rocket force didn't do their jobs. So if the US does not step in directly, the only thing TW has going for itself is that the Chinese military is really as incompetent as we hoped.
@@bobjacobson858How old are you kid? The CCP and the KMT were part of the same government after the abdication of the Qing government after 1911. The infighting cause the civil war splitting them into two parties. The KMT didn't control the island of Taiwan pre October 1945 too. But the Qing government that handed the island to the Japanese in 1895 did. The CCP is claiming to be the successor to the KMT that controls the island of Taiwan AND finish the civil war the KMT started in 1923. You might need to learn a bit of history about this island.
@@rusticbox9908 Hmm, 1985? Maybe YOU need to study history a bit, too! In any case, saying that "the CCP is claiming to be the successor to the KMT..." doesn't make it so, at least not for Taiwan. The KMT LEFT the mainland when the CCP took over, so what the CCP did on the mainland is IRRELEVANT to the situation in Taiwan, regardless of how much BS Xi the Pooh serves his audience. (BTW, statistically I'm likely to be older than you!)
@@bobjacobson858 1895* Typo. The KMT left the mainland? That's to put it lightly, they attacked the CCP members in 1923 starting a civil war to date is technically still fighting. Because they left the mainland and it's all rosy and the CCP should leave them alone? The KMT/DPP need to find another island, only a matter if time till they get ejected or sign a peace agreement. It's the legitimacy successor issue they're claiming. Since only 5 of 195 countries on this planet recognize taiwan as an independent country, there's no recognition there either.
Really impressed with Lex's relevant mention of geopolitical and military expert Elon Musk, who also thinks that tanks are now outdated due to the introduction of anti tank weapons. Wait until Elon finds out that bullets can kill infantrymen.
Post-WW2 tank doctrine that posited quick movements of massed tank 'fists' and prioritized tank-vs-tank combat *is* clearly outdated. In particular, the 'Western' school of tank design that derives from this is obviously broken. In a world where kamikaze FPV drones exist, concentrating all of your armour on the frontal projection of your MBT is suicide. Adding weight and complexity to out-distance an opposing MBT is as well. This isn't a theory - it's the primary lesson from the war in the former Soviet republic of Ukraine. You simply don't have the sorts of engagements MBTs are designed for. The sorts of uses they actually do have, they are poorly suited for. In addition, without close infantry support they're dead against a near-peer adversary and urban engagements require a new type of vehicle that, albeit it derives from a tank, is an entirely different beast. So Elon Musk happens to be right to a degree - the concept of large tank formations as the motive force of a large combined-arms high-intensity conflict against a capable adversary is dead. The fact that when he's right it's often the same reason a broken clock is right twice a day is beside the point.
@@paulie-g Adequate air support can overcome most of the challenges you raised. In addition, adequate smokescreen equipment can block drones from spotting massed movements of tanks, which of course to be the most effective still need sufficient infantry support.
@@ddzg-pp3jz if you talking occupation and conquest it defiantly plays factor. Logistics reeniforcwmwnts. Only certain times of the year you can traverse the Taiwan straite
Taiwanese here, there's literally zero tension in our daily lives. I'm more worried about fixing the stuttering issue on my copy of Half-Life 1 than literally anything else going on.
Why is he considered the go-to authority on everything? He has his fields of expertise like anyone, but there are a lot of smart people in their own fields.
Points that made Chinese assault on Taiwan difficult (non exhaustive): >There are only about 14 beaches suitable for an amphibious assault. Other locations are either too narrow or straight up cliffs. >>These 14 beaches are known to the Taiwanese army so they are heavily fortified. >Seas in general are really rough to sail through, and Taiwan Strait only has 2 calmer windows which is April and October. Other times are having waves that are too big to send troops through or covered in heavy fogs. >Most of TSMC factories are close to the above mentioned beaches while next to military bases. So as long as China still want the chips, it is hard to do saturation bombing to control air and sea dominance. >Modern satellites made it easy to predict if China is gathering its forces and resources near the coast. This gives Taiwan a much more time to prepare e.g. put sea mines across the Taiwan Strait, deploy tanks to guard the beaches, and coordinate with allies for preparation. >Amphibious warfare is very hard mainly due to the fact that you can't just send all the ships at once. >>First, any of the beaches aren't even that big to hold that many ships, so ships has to send troops in waves. >>Second, what do you do with the sank ships that block other ships? Sank ships just make Chinese troops have to travel further from the sea to the beach >>>Mind you, this is the troops, after going through hours of rough sea condition, risking getting bomb tf out by Taiwan navy/air force/sea mines, then in full gear, having to swim through the shallow sea, then face barrage of machine guns and tanks with nothing but guns. >>Third, the sea/air dominance would be very hard to achieve with the density of missiles available in Taiwan. One of the highest in the world. It is simply a cost problem: (assuming 0 value in human life because China) training a pilot + building jet > missiles Even going strictly by values and viability, the assault is still very hard to pull off. Let alone that US is doing more and more training for Taiwanese military and supplying with better weapons to effective deter China.
I would also suspect that Taiwan has significantly increased the amount of mobile missiles (nlaw etc) that can be operated by small units near the coast
What medicine did you take? 😂😂😂 Do you even know Taiwan economy depends so much with China? All military strategy you have will not work when there's no money support.
@@hiskandar I don't need medicine, but you should take some red pills and wake up. Currently, majority of Taiwan's exports are electronic components sent to China to manufacture into consumer product. Since all the manufacturer factories are shifting away from China, Taiwan can simply sell the components to those countries with factories instead. It is happening already. Taiwan isn't relying on China, Taiwan relies on where factories are. Case and point, Taiwan hasn't suffer any economical loss from foreign companies pulling out of China. Any war on Taiwan Strait will not work because 50% of the global commercial container traffic passes through Taiwan Strait daily. Going around Taiwan will severely disrupt supply chain cost. No countries will allow to see their businesses suffer like that.
Not to mention china has a tofu military. They can't even use their new aircraft carrier. They are afraid to sail it because it isn't sea worthy. Paper tiger is all china is.
@@hiskandar it's not all the reasons given here it's that taiwan is too small to war what is happening god/abraham's 3religions christian uk usa - muslim jew mideast r the only colonist criminals on earth they'll return all stolen lands natives tribal aborigine redindians in the americas australia newzealand n all islands r from china so all these/whole pacific n half atlantic belongs to china so return all with reparation n without a shot - like british hongkng n portuguese macau - the 2 omens of things to come n all racist greedy evil thieves 600mil total immigrate back home to origin - europe india africa spain mideast ...
During WW2 the United States actually did a study on invading Taiwan. ( Operation Causeway) Although it was only defended by about thirty thousand Japanese troops, the study revealed that Tawian would require a larger invasion force than Operation overlord to be successful, due to sea state and local geography, thus they decided to fight elsewhere. Now of course technology has changed in the interim, however that can be said for both sides. Like your guest I don't think it will come to violence in this matter. The CCP will seek other ways.
right now the issue impeding reunification isnt the defenses in the province of taiwan. it's the usakistani military and its lackeys. withtout their inerference i would venture guess china could be reunified in less than 2 weeks.
Personally I think that Taiwan should flip the script, declare independence, announce they are the legitimate government of China and demand the CCP surrender. What is the CCP going to do about it? Cry to the U.N.?
@@Chadmeleonwhy you confident about it, i think it will because china is pretty serious about it and a big country like this one, won't waste time on something not happening!
@@Oussamazonic war between Taiwan and China won't happen, because its no contest. What could happen is war between China a the whole alliance as a consequence.
@xonicso2275 It is in America's geopolitical interests for war in Asia where Chinese, Filipinos, Japanese, South Koreans, AND Indians to take big losses. Especially China since China is actually big enough to challenge American dominance. But China is extremely patient, and they will wait to the point where taking Taiwan even by force is not so costly. Their power in the region grows much faster than America, so they're not rushing it. Also given time, Taiwanese will be less resistant of the idea of One Country. That is their natural progression given geopolitics and history
@@Rosaslav No, the North Korea will strike when China Attacks. The EU can't support. India will likely attack Pakistan. India won't attack China, they're not stupid. They're fighting over mountains (fyi).
This level of honesty is much needed for both sides to fully understand the situation thus not to do anything stupid. I’m really curious to know what he thinks would happen or would mean to the US if China dominates Asia? And what does he mean by “ dominate” , is it like how US dominates both north and Latin America?
LOL "Both Sides". Anyone who uses this term is an idiot. It's hilarious and embarrassing you still think like a child. You're a Bush War voter who ran away for sure.
US is the leader behind the current world order. Part of the reason why is because since WW2 they have blocked the communism by the first island chain : Taiwan , Philippines, Japan and South Korea. If China were to take Taiwan, they have the ability to break through the blockade and challenge the USA with their navy over the control of global order!! US won’t let it happen for sure though
I was in the Marines and I conducted actual amphibious landings in the pacific as training and it's extremely difficult to pull off. I can't imagine doing it in a real life combat situation.
@@vytaskereisis3200 Congratulations you can't count. That doesn't change the fact of the matter that amphibious landings aren't extremely difficult to pull off even in a perfect scenario
@@cecarter10 Recall the success-rate of european warmongers in Asia? It is abysmal! Atomic bombs were used for one foolish 'victory'. Now, you 'can count'; but still miss the implication of passage of time, and 'advancement in technology and strategy': With satellites to assist targeting and with enough missiles to completely blanket Taiwan, why bother with "amphibious landing of 70+ years ago"? Why? lol Chinese can 'see' and hit ANY target in Taiwan! So why endanger Chinese soldiers with 'amphibious landing'? European warmongers can't even match Russian production and logistics NEXT-DOOR in Ukraine; you think they will be able to contend with Chinese massive production capabilities and the Long Distance need to be covered to supply Taiwan?
I like the idea China will not attack Taiwan. The catch is that Mearsheimer said Putin would not attack Ukraine and we can see how that prediction turned out.
@@lukey08 That is both a lie and an excuse. Putin recently gave a speech saying Ukrainians, Belarusians, and Russians are all supposedly 1 people thus should be in 1 nation. Except he doesn't want want to accept the idea Ukrainians are allowed to disagree. Also early into the current war Putin started the dictator of Belarus announced and displayed on a map the notion Poland would be attacked after Ukraine. He probably was not expecting Ukraine to prove Putin wrong like it did-Putin claimed Ukraine would fall in three weeks.. and it still has not happened.
@@lukey08not only was Russia provoked, they were provoked into a good decision. Russia is going to win this war, and will be in a better and safer position from further nato threats.
Of course China wouldn’t just send surface vessels across the sea against Taiwan defenses. They would first attempt to neutralize defenses with air forces. Air power is incomparably more complex now than Normandy invasion. And China puts a heavy emphasis on their Air Force for a reason.
@@johnnykrauze without international intervention, China could certainly capture Taiwan. Saying that the 2nd greatest military in the world can’t project its power to an island off its coast isn’t serious.
@@yuriy5376 I wouldn't have ever said Russia has a stronger military than China. China has like 4x the military budget, many times the economy size, and many many more people.
Air force? Are you living in WW2 era? Air force is a relic of the past... China has supersonic missiles and drone fleet that can hit across the Straits.
D-Day was incredibly difficult with misdirection and the element of surprise. There's no way that the Chinese wouldn't telegraph their intentions across the Taiwan Strait.
the point is land is super easy to cross. Water much more difficult. If the goal was only to sned missles that'd be one thing but it isn't. The goal is to send troops and loyal satraps who will proxy govern for the mainland.
@@ewilson0223 But why Russian can't easily move ahead into the land? You only need to have enough missiles (rocket) to clean up some 3 km land to let the troop landing. However, if China really needs to use force, just remove the power, the electricity, the water, the gas, the internet, the TV, how long do you think those people in the island can hang on, 3 weeks? try to live without electricity, water, gas, internet, TV, ..., just like in the stone age 3 days, and let me know what's your feeling.
@@edwardzhou6936 well the people in Palestine have been hanging on for months so you’re clearly underestimating how long people can hold on if they have the motivation
Missiles can also shoot down satellites, which means space observation and missile guidance can be obliterated in an instant. China, Russia and the US are all capable of knocking out all the satellites over a particular battle area close to home. The reason Russia hasn't done this is that it would escalate a war they don't yet need to escalate in such a way.
@@yuriy5376 If Mearsheimer told me the sky was blue, I'd walk to the window, look outside and verify it for myself. Because he is wrong about literally everything. He either has tenure, or the University of Chicago keeps the old man around for entertainment value.
@@benfowler1134 well, somebody has to publish useless "scientific" papers on political theories that don't work. That's what he seems to be good at anyway. That's how these IR departments get their funding.
The last successful contested amphibious landing depending on how you define it was either Okinawa in 1945 or Inchon in 1950. Nobody has dared try it since then. Including us in both Gulf Wars
Why the fixation on the asinine "amphibious landing" in the more 'advance' Age of Blockade & Satellites & Mass-production & hyper-sonic-MISSILES? lol Bet Chinese by now have a catalogue of ALL vulnerable points on Taiwan, and can hit them copiously from a few kilometers across the strait? Then if landing has to take place, it would be to bring Humanitarian Aid to Taiwan.
That’s not how this works. Armies either dropped in my an Air Force or taken there in Navy ships need to seize land. No country has ever submitted to a non-nuclear aerial assault, not the Nirth Cietnamese, not the Germans and not the Japanese. The Res Chinese won’t have any better luck vs Taiwan than any of the others if they can’t land their troops. And doing that is really hard/impossible in 2024.
@@nirbijaif it were soo simple no one would be chatting about about it. China knows they would be ruined in every sense possible. This is why they haven’t done anything, still.
@@Btujwnai6782 The beach landings weren't contested. The Argentinians didn't attack until the Brits has already established a bridgehead. But that is the closest thing since Inchon that anyone has tried that.
100% biased, who gave the USA the mandate to be world police? I see nowhere here where anyone is saying, lets see how we can work together to ensure we all feel safe... Heads up guys. Taiwan IS China, just like Texas is America going to war over Taiwan is interfering in China's domestic affairs. This control and contain the world strategy is what's gonna have America becoming a third world country in the next 100 years.
he adressed China's point of view to the extent we need: don't question the One China Policy oficially, because then it's an obvious chicken game scenario. But everything else we don't have to consider.
I love how china simps constantly get angry at people for not considering china's point of view so as not to hurt their fee fees when china doesn't give the first shit about anybody elses.
Lex, US was not the source of the so called "Century of Humiliation", it was mostly European powers including Russia at first, and later on Japan. US is deemed as enemy of POC by Mao because he needed support from Stalin to grab and stay in power, and Stalin wanted Mao to antagonize US to relieve pressure in Europe. The only time when US had a military action in mainland China was during the Boxer Rebellion when US participated a global coalition to rescue the diplomatic community in Peking. US donated all its share of the proceeds from that war's reparation to China by building the first university in China currently known as Beijing University, hospitals across the country which are still ranked in the top within the country, paying for Chinese students to study and live in US. During WWII, US policy of sanctioning Japan economically was the primary reason why Japan decided to go to war with US. The Flying Tiger, an US privately organized air combat unit helped the KMT to fight against Japanese airforce. After Nixon's visit to China, US was the first country which supplied capital, manufacturing knowhow to China in her initial phase of opening the country.
'Needed Stalin's support' is to be misguided. He sought Stalin because they were geographical and politically similar while China could exploit that grossly to their advantage
Mao tried to make friend with US. US refuse to recognise PRC. that is why Mao move against US. it was US that refuse to accept him, not he who refuse to accept US.
Exactly. Not to mention the US allowing China into the WTO which former PM of Australia and Chinese expert Kevin Rudd has said did more than anything to turbocharge the Chinese economy.
As a Chinese, when we talk about Century of Humiliation, it's referring to the fact that China is weak and other nations took advantage, and that "other nations" is a very large set of countries including countries in the Eight-Nation Alliance, which includes the United States. Some more recent "humiliation" includes the Yinhe incident and the bombing of the Chinese embassy in Belgrade. Of course, Americans have had their honey moon period with China and are not even close to the level of the Japanese, but it's a source of the humiliation nonetheless. If you're not familiar with this part of history, maybe try not to educate someone else i.e. Lex who's clearly better versed in this area than you.
@@RandomGuy-ghs Oh please, I would hardly characterize the accidental bombing of your embassy a national humiliation. The United States has apologized for the incident and paid compensation to the victims of the bombing and their families. Time to move on from a grievance mentality and adopt a more mature outlook toward international relations.
@mdzaid5925 Why haven't they? I don't know the answer. It makes no sense to me that 1 little island of the coast of China supplies over 90% of the world's microchips. Why wouldn't each country have their own manufacturing facilities in country? Just to avoid being this vulnerable...
@@evansmoak7182 It's simply because China played clever card. They became self sufficient (more or less) and pushed their currency to go down, which made production & manufacturing (of almost everything) alot more cheaper than anywhere else. Businessmen only care about their profits, so it made most sense to them to invest and manufactur in China. Now, Taiwan is located close to China & has somewhat democracy. This made them a perfect candidate for high-tech chip production as this tech does not get's in hands of China.... but at the same time, Taiwan is easily able to access markets of China. Now the world is catching up. US invested heavily in Chip industry under Biden, India is also investing in the same. Not sure about other countries.
@@evansmoak7182 because of taiwan's politics, economy and geographic location in asia, its the perfect place for manufacturing. The labour is skilled and cheap enough to supply 90% of the world's microchips. If you manufacture elsewhere, it becomes expensive or you receive sub-par fabrication.
Would it be cheaper to defend taiwan, or start building domestic manufacturing plants in your own country? Intel is building a very large chip plant in ohio; it started last year. iPhones are now being made in India. Nobody knows what will happen, but we can all make a guess.
Interesting quote from last month's Business Insider magazine: _'The three largest employers in China are the oil and gas industry, the Aerospace industry and the Mining industry. The three largest employers in the United States are Walmart, McDonalds and Home Depot.'_
Yeah, let's just ignore the massive labor cost difference between the two countries in favor of some buzzwords to get people clicking. Lmfao. Paying people 5 dollars a day vs. 50 dollars an hour makes the question of automation an easy one. Also, having 10x more people then you need who are more then willing to work for that 5 a day makes the decision to exploit people an easy one.
Both the PRC and the RoC are dominated by the Han Chinese, who mostly see this as a Chinese issue. This will be settled by the Chinese, between the Chinese. The issue is how to make sure all the factions are served and we are reaching a point where that can happen.
Two things I could be utterly wrong on: 1) Eversince WW2, Pentagon has maintained capacity to fight 2 superpowers at once 2) China seems more interested in posturing than engaging Taiwan/America, given likely decades' consequences
Erm... Ukraine has exposed the lack of military manufacturing capacity to maintain a long high intensity war. US can make an impressive initial strike but if that isn't decisive (which it won't be against a peer enemy) then they are in trouble. Russian is out manufacturing arms vs the whole West, what capacity does China have?
@@Durnyful How did you arrive at Russia being more than at best near-peer, and then to whom? Also parts of Europe now considering boots on ground aside the necessary comittment to aid flow. The only way I see American aid changing is if POTUS changes this cycle, in which European powers increase supply and potentially introduce presence.
@@ryvyr Europe is nothing militarily without the US. I doubt even European politicians would risk ww3 for Ukraine & the US certainly won't as their focus is moving on to China
Most third world countries are jointly confronting the United States economically, politically, and militarily, and the collapse of the United States' global hegemony is not far away.
@@火箭翻墙 There appears much truth to that in parts, and Congress mucking about with aid where crucial as well selective inaction are not helping with perception of long held status, for better or worse. The US does wield plenty massive soft sticks and is by far the wealthiest nation in history insofar aware, though especially China looks poised to possibly overtake in maybe 10ish years~ New paradigms seem inevitable in long run, of course. LLMs and such could change all of this, as well.
I think he relies too much on a thought that actors are rational and ignores the fact they can be irrational or have completely deranged picture of reality. There is tons of evidence showing that Russia-Ukraine war was thought to last a month or two. If it was successful Putin would become a hero for Russians, he would be cheered, his regime, his security and security for his friends and children would be guaranteed, the West would be shocked by the power of Russian army. This is a pretty rational thing to do if you know you will win. But something went wrong (if you are a dictator you always hear what you want to hear not what the reality is). The same thing (relying on rationality) leads mr John to the conclusion about the reasons for the war - and his reasoning goes against the consensus from the Russian intelligencia. Pretty interesting that Russians studying Russian regime and living inside Russia have a completely different thoughts on that, right? Unfortunately what they say does not correlate with a wide spread anti-americanism and they are not heard neither listened. Unfortunately the war is the thing which promotes nationalism and makes other things go away, so in my point of view the war is inevitable because it's the best way to hide away from an internal problems. But Taiwan maybe not the first - China can invade Vietnam or Philippines or whatever. War is a tool to make an average citizen of a country happy (at least he is a citizen of a country that is badass).
He explicitly said that Russia will do what they have said to do which is to invade Ukraine if the US tries to expand NATO territory/ the US sphere of influence further east thus infiltrating their sphere of influence right before their borders. Obama didn‘t take the warning seriously and so the Russias dis what they said they‘d do all along. It’s power politics, nothing has ever changed.
@@andrewzhukov304 No, Putin decision to invade Ukraine wasnt irrational, just very poorly informed about the horrible state of the Russian army and how much the European countries were completely through with his bullying over the last decade. Instead of a hardened, NATO-trained and armed Ukraine army, backed by the most extensive economic sanctions ever, Putin thought he could just have a quick repeat of the first invasion of Ukraine or even Georgia. Like before, present NATO a fait accompli and leaving them only the option of economic sanctions that would hurt themselves too (which meant before these had always been just a mere slap on the wrist). And this is why most experts didn't predict the invasion. They fully recognized how foolish and self-destructive it would be as the situation had completely shifted over the last decade. But nobody had realized how isolated and poorly informed Putin had become in his ivory tower.
China's Air Superiority could be a game changer tho. They have hundreds of warplanes that can fly at any moment around Taiwan...Unless Taiwan have been really serious with its security upgrades recently, only then they can defend the country.
When the western media talk about Taiwan as an important asset… critical link in the first island chain… to contain China strategically… before you go all technical and cold about this Taiwan and china issue, think about the people live on either side of the Taiwan stream, they are essentially the same people who speak the same language, listen to the same Jay Chaw song, watched the same movies, learn the same history lesson in schools, many have families on the other side of the water… so let’s hope there will never be a war between them… ever😢
It's not just a top priority for China, it is the conclusion to a civil war. As the famous prelude to Romance of the Three Kingdoms reads 天下大勢．分久必合，合久必分。
@@allenliu70I think it will happen. That's why China has been China for 3000 years. The unity is what makes it strong. That's why the West is so scared. The West would like China to disintegrate like Europe so it can be controlled one by one.
@@adamkallin5160Nope. He specifically said Russia was done during Bush. Then it was 2010. Then 2014 was the end. Mearsheimer's motivations are his political party losing Vietnam so badly. They've never gotten over it and it warps their brains.
@@Go4Broke247 Is there a NATO in the room with us right now, comrade? (You DO realise that when Putin launched his fascist, illegal and criminal war against Ukraine, Ukraine had already agreed not to join NATO.)
It's very simple how this will start: 1. China Naval blockades Taiwan 2. They'll use a "golf of tonkin" incident to start their war. 3. Outcome unknown
I would like to see what happens in terms of US action if the Taiwanese elect a govt that moves to reconcile and reunite with China. Would that democratic choice be respected or would 'regime change' be pursued?
At present, this possibility is very low. The United States has deep control over Taiwan, and most young people have a very low understanding of China, and they have long lost their sense of belonging to the country.
@@owenchen-nv4ze also most young people in China have a low understanding of other country so the possibility of war where the populace is easily riled up is very readily available. The Great Firewall has its uses in terms of population control more than any mass media has outside China.
@@owenchen-nv4zewhat in the fuck is this stupid fucking answer? Chinese history is covered extensively in Taiwanese schools along with Taiwanese history, Japanese, Korean, etc. I’m willing to bet any kid aged 15 - 55 will know more about China than you AND they’ll be bright enough to know this while also knowing Taiwan isn’t part of China and that they are not Chinese.
Yes, water is a huge body of stopping power... For both sides. Which distance is longer between Taiwan Strait and Pacific Ocean？ When you choose to contain China, it has already been determined that China will have no choice but seeing a breakthrough from getting Taiwan back. And the allies will also know that they are totally different from Taiwan, whether in terms of sovereignty problems or geographical conditions.
Lol the US has bases all over the pacific ocean, not to mention allies like the Philippines and Japan which can probably host US warships. The allied navies would get there way easier than the probably hundreds of troop transports required for the invasion across the straight.
@@java4653 idk about him, I just get sick of him and Rogan and the podcast crowd all being in the billionaire simp army. Amazon is getting sued for anti-competitive business practices by the gov’t. Thats the only reason Bezos is on here and Lex is just throat deep on him sucking it up.
This makes me think of all those people in the lead up to WW2 that thought the Maginot Line would hold the Germans back. 'Its so well fortified, the losses would be tremendous'
Different situation. That was a war of movement when the Germans blitzkrieged their way through Europe in 1939-40. A war between Taiwan and China would be a war of attrition if there. is indeed an amphibious invasion where landing forces try to establish a beach head and push inland and attack all the mountains in Taiwan. Even if you look at Ukriane and Russia now, you realise how much more destructive modern warfare is. Modern precision weaponry has made peer to peer conflict a bloodbath that is unseen since WWII but its even worse because precision = lethality.
The 'American' invasion of Normandy?!! There was me thinking it was an allied endeavour, with British, Canadians, Australian, Poles - and Americans. As a Brit I totally recognise the resources both in manpower and materiel that the US contributed. But it was a joint effort Mr Mearsheimer. I'd be grateful if you'd have the decency to acknowledge that.
@@Carolina-gz8ug It's nothing to do with 'insecurity'. Having just returned from the commemorations in Normandy and seeing the cemeteries full of allied war dead, I just think if a commentator is describing the actions taken 80 years ago they should recognise the sacrifice and input of all those taking part. Not just those from the country from which he comes from.
Modern weaponry have made it very difficult to do large scale offensive operations. Normandie was done with full air superiority, full naval superiority and they faced no anti ship missiles, no submarines and no drones.
If you want to guarantee that China will invade Taiwan, then all you have to do is declare that Taiwan will be part of NATO in the foreseeable future. Worked in Ukraine.
That's a good point. These nations are constantly visiting each other for vacation and visiting family. Yes of course there will be a war. Look at the history. uSA only a dozen wars since 1981. China zero. And I hate the Communist Party. I just hate Westerners banging on war drums for no good reason even more.
john is one of my favorite scholars who is still alive but unfortunately he is wrong, we are talking about China, a nation willing to go head to head with US in Korea, fighting most modernized army of the time, when they can barely build any cars and can’t even build an airplane, and guess what, they were able to push US back to 38th parallel, do u think attacking Taiwan is more difficult then that?
For America Taiwan is to contain China but for the Chinese it is for their national security purpose. Which side has the determination at most if war broke out ?
The analysis that invading Taiwan would be extremely costly and difficult for China does not equate to their not doing it anyway. If the Ukraine War, and other wars, has taught us anything, it's that government and countries don't always act in perfectly rational way.
Because we are one people. Both Taiwanese and Chinese are ethnically Han Chinese. Taiwan has been under Chinese control since Qing Empire. Its the western nations/Japan that split us apart. Just a few decades ago, Taiwan was singing the same tune for reunification its only in recent times that they dropped this cause its not realistic for them. Why Did England have to fight US in war of independence? Same reason. Maybe Falkland Islands should declare independence and Britain shouild just sit there. How about that?@@roganroberts8789
It’s a bit simplistic. China wouldn’t risk losing its entire country over an island as once that can of worms is opened there are no rules restricting Taiwan and any ally of Taiwan from attacking the Chinese mainland for multiple reasons including to pull forces and resources off of Taiwan.
Anyone who thinks you can't invade and conquer islands because they're surrounded by water... has never heard of the Empire of Japan's invasion and occupation of Indonesia and the Philippines
I don't think people even know the British took it. They don't actually know anything about the Asian countries besides a little bit about Japan maybe. It's all ignorance and misinformation
Hong Kong, a democratic government sense, 1992. I wonder what the British was doing the other 145 years. Maybe you should read a bit of the British colonisation history of Hong Kong. this political game blaming on China, it become funny when you see the whole truth.
I take dictators by word. Hitler said exactly what he wants to do and he did it. Mussolini said exactly what he wants to do and he did it. Putin said exactly what he wants to do and he did it. Xi said exactly what he wants to do and …… It would be naive to think this list won’t continue.
I fought in the ring for years. I was 165 lbs. a 240 wannabe fighter challenged me to bare knuckles. I knew I couldn’t win. When we fought I played dirty. I had a broken nose and 16 stitches. He won. But he spent 2 days in the hospital and had to have his jaw pinned and still walks with a limp. I have not been challenged since. I am always scared to fight but their fear is greater. There is to much to lose.
"You have to have smart policies and you have to make sure you don't do anything provocative" and he says that with that ironic smile... this guy knows US is going to screw up big time in this regard:D Just like with expanding NATO and provoking Russians to invade Ukraine. Oh boy, poor Asian states have a lot coming in the near future.
Picture you are being treated as an "asset" and being use as a pawn to keep China in the island chain. And now picture one day, when the pawn realize the king really don't care about you and want to be more than just a pawn... After hearing this point of view, I hope the pawn realize they are just a pawn
@@swank8508 do you know what a proxy of war is? US does not care about Taiwan, it only cares about finding battlegrounds far from its own borders. It has China in its sights and Taiwan is the battleground.
2:22 “it looks like inevitably Taiwan will have to be a part of China.” That’s news to Taiwan. Why are you internalizing the arguments of the CCP? Just because they say it’s a top priority doesn’t make it inevitable. For starters it’s obviously not the top priority. The top priority of the CCP is to stay in power. Second they want to become rich. Third they want China to be dominant. All three of those priorities will be jeopardized if Taiwan becomes a hot issue. China’s export economy relies on trade. Even a partial embargo would be the biggest economic crisis since the Great Depression. China won’t risk the disruption. China’s invasion of Taiwan won’t look like D-Day. It will look like an unscheduled cargo flight landing in the middle of the night and taking the biggest airport. It will look like a million drones destroying infrastructure and communications. It will come by air, not sea, and will be over before we have much to say about it. The question is how much will the US respond. Your answer above shows exactly the wrong sort of thinking for that crisis. It’s by no means inevitable, and if it does happen we can’t let it happen quietly.
The containment strategy is very dangerous imo. Like a mechanically closed system is building up pressure it will inevitably end up exploding if the pressure is not released in time. If you want examples, look no further than Ukraine, Nato was doing the same thing in eastern Europe prior to the war...
interesting, Taiwan is in a very similar situation as North Korea. North Korea could stay the only totalitarian, old-fashioned, modernist (and not postmodernist) dictatorship in the world. why? because this country is among all the super powers (Russia, China and USA and its allies like South-Korea and Japan). and it happened at the beginning of the Cold War, when these super powers already had nuclear weapons. so North Korea became an island of extreme instability which then, ironically, caused an extreme stability in geopolitics. nobody dared to go in war with North Korea after the Korean War. because it is just in the middle of the region surrounded by super powers. not to mention that they already have nuclear weapons too. Taiwan is in a similar position, but they brought out the most and the best they could, while the North Koreans did the opposite. Taiwan produced an amazing development socially, technologically and economically as well. and for this, too, the situation described by the "stability arising from instability" principle was needed there.
Can you imagine a US Marines led D-Day assault on Honshu if the A-bomb had not been dropped, the USSR had not entered the war and above all, had Japan had not surrendered? It would have made the D-Day in Normandy seem like just another day at the beach.
The most revealing statement at 03:00 "it's a top priority not to let them take Taiwan...many people will say it's because Taiwan is a democracy, but that doesn't matter that much"
Full podcast episode: th-cam.com/video/r4wLXNydzeY/w-d-xo.html
Lex Fridman podcast channel: th-cam.com/users/lexfridman
Guest bio: John Mearsheimer is an international relations scholar at University of Chicago. He is one of the most influential and controversial thinkers in the world on the topics of war and power.
Common sense, if China really wants to land and occupy Taiwan, it is just pierce of cake, according to nowadays Chinese army’s capabilities.
China taiwan is chinese problem not a anglo sax problem. Look at middle east and ukraine problem??
Look Mr. John Mearsheimer and Lex Friedman - Taiwan was returned to China by Japan in 1945 via the Yalta & Potsdam Agreements, and the Cairo & Tehran Declaration of 1943 and 1944 by POTUS Franklin D Roosevelt & USSR's leader Joseph Stalin, with the UK's PM Churchill looking on the floor during these conferences. Also, Japan ruled Taiwan for 55 years from 1890 thru the end of WW2 in 1945. Also, China will NOT attack Taiwan, but can blockade it instead.
@HoLeeFook68 Do you happen to know about Chinese “Sun Tzu's Art of War”? One of its main tricks is “Win the game without fighting”. As long as China keeps rising, Taiwan will return its motherland automatically without any war. Now Taiwanese have already had no more superiority in front of Chinese in almost all aspects. In addition, getting ride of occupation and returning its sovereignty are Japanese later on real destinations, instead of fighting against China. China rising is Japan’s big opportunity to be away from American colonization in Japan since WWII, same to Germany.
@HoLeeFook68 Yes, without Chinese 3 great inventions, same as Americans, you could still live in cold and chilly caves like monkey, knowing nothing about outside and how to write.
I’m so glad that John told the truth that US care about Taiwan because Taiwan is an important US assets and not because of the political bs about democracy or people in Taiwan. 😂
Okay? And? China cares about Taiwan because it wants to enslave them. US saying nice things while having pragmatic reasons is still better.
Yeah. They say very similar thing to Ukraine aa well.
😂
Totally predictable. It’s foreign policy and Dr. M is a foreign policy realist. We supported Taiwan when it was a one party state. Where you born 15 years ago?
Taiwan have low IQ they are easy to brainwashed, they are dead set fighting for democracy but democracy is not the same as freedom, Taiwan will never be Europe
The white man see the world in black and white, except George Washington but he is dead long ago so we can't really be good anymore
The America today is not different from the colonialism Europe
Im blown away how honest and to the point this guy is. None of this "democracy must protect other democracy" bullcrap I see on the internet all the time.
That's because most of the west's spoilt population are so privileged they have become idealistic unfortunately the world isnt as nice as people like to think and all that idealism promote aggression against us
the united states isn't even a democracy
its because hes not a politician, he doesnt have to hide behind that bullshit and he is known for being a realist
Welcome to International Relations and Warfare studies 😅
IR should be a lot more than offensive realism, Mearshiemer is known for getting many things wrong. He's just good at presenting an defending his ideas, doesn't mean they're correct. For example he thought that after the collapse of the soviet union the power vacuum would bring in an era of European nuclear proliferation and an increased chance in war in-between NATO allies. This of course could not be further from the case. @@lovecontemplation8607
I’m retired Navy and I agree 100% with John. Having real world experience in blue water AND amphibious operations … it is indescribably difficult to land, in force, on a heavily defended island. Your losses would be incredible even if you could make it ashore. It would require the entire destruction of the island and everything on it ….. and at that point, what have you accomplished?
I don't think people really understand that's not what they want to do. Chinas main plan is to blockade Taiwan. Taiwan imports nearly everything it needs. China is developing missiles and a navy to strike the u.s navy and blockade Taiwan. They don't need to invade a fully strengthened Taiwan to win. I think the estimate is 3 weeks until Taiwan runs out of fuel for electricity and military which would make the task significantly easier. Also the lack of food and basic necessities would be a major issue if the u.s navy couldn't operate close enough to taiwan to stop a blockade.
Tell more friend.
This gives me happiness, that China cannot take Taiwan (I'm not Taiwanese btw, just someone who dislikes China)
@@Peter-jo6yustop using made in china phone then. And don't get our moon rocks that your NASA begged
Unification, Chinese can rebuild everything
I love how simple and direct he is. People dance around things so they don’t have to say the thing out loud.
He just says it.
Tenure is a beautiful thing
Well, this is John "Putin will have to be stupid to invade Ukraine" Mearsheimer.
There is only one evil country in the world who thrives on more wars feeding their military industrial complex no matter who the president is talk about freedom democracy BS
I listen to Mearsheimer a lot but he is often wrong and often admits it.
Oh yeah. And the king is naked.
It’s wild that Taiwan semiconductor wasn’t mentioned as to why the U.S. is interested in protecting Taiwan
Factory opens in USA 2025, there are issues but general principal they will make chips locally soon.
@@malkeir9781I think it that’s easier said than done. US likely won’t be able to produce them at nearly the same efficiency. Also it’s not just able us being able to produce them, it’s also about not letting China get their hands on that technology
@@gupeter2922 China will get their hands on it. They are making progress on chip upgrades. This economic war is only going a single direction. USA is continuing to isolate itself and it is in the process of destroying its own currency. Hyper inflation within 10 years. At best high inflation 6-7% for a long time but unlikely. Will end in a global war. Winner gets to decide what happens after that.
That's more of interest to the Chinese. The newest Huawei phone uses a chip from 2019. Japan would be next if Taiwan was invaded. It'd be a malignant expansion.
@@sirgooogenthat’s not true
Lex you should bring a Taiwanese to talk about Taiwan and its state affairs. This guy is giving his view but with a western-centric lens.
Long time US-Taiwan expat here. The western media hypes an imminent 'conflict' much more than Taiwanese people here. Most are fine with keeping the "status quo' here.
Agreed. He is not even offering anything new or different from dozens of other Western-centric analysts (I understand that his specialty is Russia-Europe geopolitics, not East Asia, and here he is just mechanistically applying his model developed to explain Russia-Europe to China-Taiwan).
He does that purposely
Mearsheimer had a debate with Kevin Rudd (china expert) and got destroyed
If Lex is going to do that, he needs to bring on two or three Taiwanese with different viewpoints. Just like westerners, Taiwanese can not agree on how to deal with threat from China.
Lex never misses a chance to name drop Elon lmao
Why not Elon is one of one
@@BeitBridga communist twit that wants to give Taiwan to China.
What’s the problem? Elon is a person. He knows Elon.
@@kavish_dj interviewers mention everyone they know no matter how irrelevant to the conversation?
I want take away food
A few counter point to this:
1. China wants to take Taiwan not because it has TSMC. Even if the island does not have TSMC China wants to unite with it because it is part of China. If it really comes down to a hot war, you cannot count on China will "tread lightly" because of TSMC. In fact, if China actually manages to take TW with TSMC intact, the engineers that actually matters will already been moved out and someone on our side will blow that infrastructure up like a certain pipeline.
2. Comparing this to Normandy is a mistake, sure they're both amphibious assaults that requires huge landing force, but the similarities stops there. Normandy stand in front of a whole continent. Aside from the stockpile that's already built up, they can manufacture their own weapons, ammunition, oil, coal, steel. TW is an island the size of Maryland, it isn't even self sufficient in food let alone anything else you might need to fight a war. We're talking about a few weeks supply for energy to keep the lights on and the trucks running.
3. China has MLRS that can hit the island directly from the mainland, a fraction the cost of what it is taking Russia to hit Ukrainian targets. Not to mention perhaps the largest and most advanced drone fleet. If by the time Chinese ground forces decides to land, and there are still a formidable defense force on the beachfront, then the air force, navy and rocket force didn't do their jobs. So if the US does not step in directly, the only thing TW has going for itself is that the Chinese military is really as incompetent as we hoped.
Of course we should keep in mind that Taiwan was NEVER under the CPC, so the CPC can't legitimately claim Taiwan.
@@bobjacobson858learn some history. Taiwan was and is part of China according to UN. Otherwise, let Taiwan join UN.
@@bobjacobson858How old are you kid? The CCP and the KMT were part of the same government after the abdication of the Qing government after 1911. The infighting cause the civil war splitting them into two parties. The KMT didn't control the island of Taiwan pre October 1945 too. But the Qing government that handed the island to the Japanese in 1895 did. The CCP is claiming to be the successor to the KMT that controls the island of Taiwan AND finish the civil war the KMT started in 1923.
You might need to learn a bit of history about this island.
@@rusticbox9908 Hmm, 1985? Maybe YOU need to study history a bit, too! In any case, saying that "the CCP is claiming to be the successor to the KMT..." doesn't make it so, at least not for Taiwan. The KMT LEFT the mainland when the CCP took over, so what the CCP did on the mainland is IRRELEVANT to the situation in Taiwan, regardless of how much BS Xi the Pooh serves his audience. (BTW, statistically I'm likely to be older than you!)
@@bobjacobson858 1895* Typo.
The KMT left the mainland? That's to put it lightly, they attacked the CCP members in 1923 starting a civil war to date is technically still fighting.
Because they left the mainland and it's all rosy and the CCP should leave them alone? The KMT/DPP need to find another island, only a matter if time till they get ejected or sign a peace agreement.
It's the legitimacy successor issue they're claiming. Since only 5 of 195 countries on this planet recognize taiwan as an independent country, there's no recognition there either.
Really impressed with Lex's relevant mention of geopolitical and military expert Elon Musk, who also thinks that tanks are now outdated due to the introduction of anti tank weapons. Wait until Elon finds out that bullets can kill infantrymen.
Post-WW2 tank doctrine that posited quick movements of massed tank 'fists' and prioritized tank-vs-tank combat *is* clearly outdated. In particular, the 'Western' school of tank design that derives from this is obviously broken. In a world where kamikaze FPV drones exist, concentrating all of your armour on the frontal projection of your MBT is suicide. Adding weight and complexity to out-distance an opposing MBT is as well. This isn't a theory - it's the primary lesson from the war in the former Soviet republic of Ukraine. You simply don't have the sorts of engagements MBTs are designed for. The sorts of uses they actually do have, they are poorly suited for. In addition, without close infantry support they're dead against a near-peer adversary and urban engagements require a new type of vehicle that, albeit it derives from a tank, is an entirely different beast. So Elon Musk happens to be right to a degree - the concept of large tank formations as the motive force of a large combined-arms high-intensity conflict against a capable adversary is dead. The fact that when he's right it's often the same reason a broken clock is right twice a day is beside the point.
@@paulie-g Adequate air support can overcome most of the challenges you raised. In addition, adequate smokescreen equipment can block drones from spotting massed movements of tanks, which of course to be the most effective still need sufficient infantry support.
@@guydreamrsmoke doesn’t help you with fpv drones.
@@dakotareid1566 Yes, smoke is effective with FPV drones.
Smoke can’t hide the heat bloom like for instance a US Abrams tank jet engine gives off so well, and that’s what the drone can see so well.
I’ve been through the Taiwan straits. Craziest rough seas I’ve ever sailed on.
I’ve never been through those straits, but if you want ornery and rapidly changeable water you must visit the North Sea.
@@c.philipmckenzie yeah I heard about that
In the face of modern weapons, this matter is nothing. The difficulty lies in anti-intervention.
@@ddzg-pp3jz if you talking occupation and conquest it defiantly plays factor. Logistics reeniforcwmwnts. Only certain times of the year you can traverse the Taiwan straite
@@DrewbattleTheGreat not to mention besides the natural advantage of the Taiwan strait we have high density of anti vessel missile waiting for them 😅
Taiwanese here, there's literally zero tension in our daily lives. I'm more worried about fixing the stuttering issue on my copy of Half-Life 1 than literally anything else going on.
Just get a copy of Black Mesa man. HL1 is gonna have a host of compatibility issues in this day and age.
Its more that the 5 eyes worrying about their grip on world order (which is slipping day by day).
Thats the same what the young people in Odessa and Kiev said in February 2022
Ty Jake
That’s because you got mighty USA behind you from their military bases in Japan, Philippines and Guam.
"Elon musk said" is the new "my dad said"
Why is he considered the go-to authority on everything? He has his fields of expertise like anyone, but there are a lot of smart people in their own fields.
@@Squatle Lex is a bit of a weirdo who fancies himself a bit too much.
That's because in the US, Rich = Genius.
Points that made Chinese assault on Taiwan difficult (non exhaustive):
>There are only about 14 beaches suitable for an amphibious assault. Other locations are either too narrow or straight up cliffs.
>>These 14 beaches are known to the Taiwanese army so they are heavily fortified.
>Seas in general are really rough to sail through, and Taiwan Strait only has 2 calmer windows which is April and October. Other times are having waves that are too big to send troops through or covered in heavy fogs.
>Most of TSMC factories are close to the above mentioned beaches while next to military bases. So as long as China still want the chips, it is hard to do saturation bombing to control air and sea dominance.
>Modern satellites made it easy to predict if China is gathering its forces and resources near the coast. This gives Taiwan a much more time to prepare e.g. put sea mines across the Taiwan Strait, deploy tanks to guard the beaches, and coordinate with allies for preparation.
>Amphibious warfare is very hard mainly due to the fact that you can't just send all the ships at once.
>>First, any of the beaches aren't even that big to hold that many ships, so ships has to send troops in waves.
>>Second, what do you do with the sank ships that block other ships? Sank ships just make Chinese troops have to travel further from the sea to the beach
>>>Mind you, this is the troops, after going through hours of rough sea condition, risking getting bomb tf out by Taiwan navy/air force/sea mines, then in full gear, having to swim through the shallow sea, then face barrage of machine guns and tanks with nothing but guns.
>>Third, the sea/air dominance would be very hard to achieve with the density of missiles available in Taiwan. One of the highest in the world. It is simply a cost problem: (assuming 0 value in human life because China) training a pilot + building jet > missiles
Even going strictly by values and viability, the assault is still very hard to pull off. Let alone that US is doing more and more training for Taiwanese military and supplying with better weapons to effective deter China.
I would also suspect that Taiwan has significantly increased the amount of mobile missiles (nlaw etc) that can be operated by small units near the coast
What medicine did you take? 😂😂😂 Do you even know Taiwan economy depends so much with China? All military strategy you have will not work when there's no money support.
@@hiskandar I don't need medicine, but you should take some red pills and wake up.
Currently, majority of Taiwan's exports are electronic components sent to China to manufacture into consumer product. Since all the manufacturer factories are shifting away from China, Taiwan can simply sell the components to those countries with factories instead. It is happening already. Taiwan isn't relying on China, Taiwan relies on where factories are. Case and point, Taiwan hasn't suffer any economical loss from foreign companies pulling out of China.
Any war on Taiwan Strait will not work because 50% of the global commercial container traffic passes through Taiwan Strait daily. Going around Taiwan will severely disrupt supply chain cost. No countries will allow to see their businesses suffer like that.
Not to mention china has a tofu military. They can't even use their new aircraft carrier. They are afraid to sail it because it isn't sea worthy. Paper tiger is all china is.
@@hiskandar
it's not all the reasons given here
it's that taiwan is too small to war
what is happening
god/abraham's 3religions christian uk usa - muslim jew mideast r the only colonist criminals on earth
they'll return all stolen lands
natives tribal aborigine redindians in the americas australia newzealand n all islands r from china so all these/whole pacific n half atlantic belongs to china so return all with reparation n without a shot -
like british hongkng n portuguese macau -
the 2 omens of things to come n
all racist greedy evil thieves 600mil total immigrate back home to origin - europe india africa spain mideast ...
During WW2 the United States actually did a study on invading Taiwan. ( Operation Causeway) Although it was only defended by about thirty thousand Japanese troops, the study revealed that Tawian would require a larger invasion force than Operation overlord to be successful, due to sea state and local geography, thus they decided to fight elsewhere. Now of course technology has changed in the interim, however that can be said for both sides. Like your guest I don't think it will come to violence in this matter. The CCP will seek other ways.
right now the issue impeding reunification isnt the defenses in the province of taiwan. it's the usakistani military and its lackeys.
withtout their inerference i would venture guess china could be reunified in less than 2 weeks.
@@sabin97yeah, there is no "Taiwan province", keep dreaming commie.
Personally I think that Taiwan should flip the script, declare independence, announce they are the legitimate government of China and demand the CCP surrender. What is the CCP going to do about it? Cry to the U.N.?
democracy also means rule of law, capitalism, good for business, not just the ideal which is important and real.
@@sabin97 little pinky so sad.
I hope war doesn’t happen between Taiwan 🇹🇼 and China 🇨🇳
It won't.
@@Chadmeleonwhy you confident about it, i think it will because china is pretty serious about it and a big country like this one, won't waste time on something not happening!
@@Oussamazonic war between Taiwan and China won't happen, because its no contest. What could happen is war between China a the whole alliance as a consequence.
@xonicso2275 It is in America's geopolitical interests for war in Asia where Chinese, Filipinos, Japanese, South Koreans, AND Indians to take big losses. Especially China since China is actually big enough to challenge American dominance. But China is extremely patient, and they will wait to the point where taking Taiwan even by force is not so costly. Their power in the region grows much faster than America, so they're not rushing it. Also given time, Taiwanese will be less resistant of the idea of One Country. That is their natural progression given geopolitics and history
@@Rosaslav No, the North Korea will strike when China Attacks. The EU can't support. India will likely attack Pakistan. India won't attack China, they're not stupid. They're fighting over mountains (fyi).
Now, pls, make a video how Russia won't attack Ukraine.
If he does, pls, comment on how people should always be informed.
Just like you.
exactly.
"Not to let them evolve" - the essence of US democracy
That’s been the essence of powerful countries for millennia so your statement doesn’t really mean anything
@@theflanman1986 Nobody wants to put up with this, including Russia. That's the point.
@@АндрейИванов-ц3к2л japan can
@@theflanman1986rome gave civillisation to europe
This level of honesty is much needed for both sides to fully understand the situation thus not to do anything stupid. I’m really curious to know what he thinks would happen or would mean to the US if China dominates Asia? And what does he mean by “ dominate” , is it like how US dominates both north and Latin America?
wtf r u on about? China can't even dominate China, or keeps it's capital from getting flooded LOL
LOL "Both Sides". Anyone who uses this term is an idiot. It's hilarious and embarrassing you still think like a child. You're a Bush War voter who ran away for sure.
US is the leader behind the current world order. Part of the reason why is because since WW2 they have blocked the communism by the first island chain : Taiwan , Philippines, Japan and South Korea. If China were to take Taiwan, they have the ability to break through the blockade and challenge the USA with their navy over the control of global order!! US won’t let it happen for sure though
Everyone relevant on both sides fully understand the situation already. It's only the plebs who are caught up with the theatrics of imperial media.
Really enjoy listening to a guy explain that you can’t drive tanks across an ocean lol
lmfao
Peak brain in this video.
>amphibious tanks have entered the chat
American can do nothing to Chinese neither!
@@tinaz1818ableok china bot
People has 90 average IQ level talk about those who has 120 average IQ level 😂😂
I was in the Marines and I conducted actual amphibious landings in the pacific as training and it's extremely difficult to pull off. I can't imagine doing it in a real life combat situation.
D-day? And that was 70+ years ago
@@vytaskereisis3200 Congratulations you can't count. That doesn't change the fact of the matter that amphibious landings aren't extremely difficult to pull off even in a perfect scenario
@@cecarter10
Recall the success-rate of european warmongers in Asia? It is abysmal!
Atomic bombs were used for one foolish 'victory'.
Now, you 'can count'; but still miss the implication of passage of time, and 'advancement in technology and strategy':
With satellites to assist targeting and with enough missiles to completely blanket Taiwan, why bother with "amphibious landing of 70+ years ago"? Why? lol
Chinese can 'see' and hit ANY target in Taiwan!
So why endanger Chinese soldiers with 'amphibious landing'?
European warmongers can't even match Russian production and logistics NEXT-DOOR in Ukraine; you think they will be able to contend with Chinese massive production capabilities and the Long Distance need to be covered to supply Taiwan?
You guys definitely have no idea what China is capable of these days...
@@rashedprime
I’ll bet you do not either
I like the idea China will not attack Taiwan. The catch is that Mearsheimer said Putin would not attack Ukraine and we can see how that prediction turned out.
Well Putin would have not attacked Ukraine if NATO did not provoke him
@@lukey08 That is both a lie and an excuse. Putin recently gave a speech saying Ukrainians, Belarusians, and Russians are all supposedly 1 people thus should be in 1 nation. Except he doesn't want want to accept the idea Ukrainians are allowed to disagree. Also early into the current war Putin started the dictator of Belarus announced and displayed on a map the notion Poland would be attacked after Ukraine. He probably was not expecting Ukraine to prove Putin wrong like it did-Putin claimed Ukraine would fall in three weeks.. and it still has not happened.
Slava Ukraini.💙💛💙💛💙💛💙💛💙💛💙💛@@pplr1
@@lukey08xi would probably say the same thing lol.
@@lukey08not only was Russia provoked, they were provoked into a good decision. Russia is going to win this war, and will be in a better and safer position from further nato threats.
Of course China wouldn’t just send surface vessels across the sea against Taiwan defenses. They would first attempt to neutralize defenses with air forces. Air power is incomparably more complex now than Normandy invasion. And China puts a heavy emphasis on their Air Force for a reason.
Ok, but they still do not have the ability to capture Taiwan. Providing that the USA does not will it.
@@johnnykrauze without international intervention, China could certainly capture Taiwan. Saying that the 2nd greatest military in the world can’t project its power to an island off its coast isn’t serious.
@jonathangardner41what happened to russia being the second military in the world? 😂
@@yuriy5376 I wouldn't have ever said Russia has a stronger military than China. China has like 4x the military budget, many times the economy size, and many many more people.
Air force? Are you living in WW2 era? Air force is a relic of the past... China has supersonic missiles and drone fleet that can hit across the Straits.
D-Day was incredibly difficult with misdirection and the element of surprise. There's no way that the Chinese wouldn't telegraph their intentions across the Taiwan Strait.
Normandy has nothing to do with today's war, there were no missiles in Normandy time.
the point is land is super easy to cross. Water much more difficult. If the goal was only to sned missles that'd be one thing but it isn't. The goal is to send troops and loyal satraps who will proxy govern for the mainland.
@@ewilson0223 But why Russian can't easily move ahead into the land? You only need to have enough missiles (rocket) to clean up some 3 km land to let the troop landing. However, if China really needs to use force, just remove the power, the electricity, the water, the gas, the internet, the TV, how long do you think those people in the island can hang on, 3 weeks? try to live without electricity, water, gas, internet, TV, ..., just like in the stone age 3 days, and let me know what's your feeling.
@@edwardzhou6936 well the people in Palestine have been hanging on for months so you’re clearly underestimating how long people can hold on if they have the motivation
Missiles can also shoot down satellites, which means space observation and missile guidance can be obliterated in an instant.
China, Russia and the US are all capable of knocking out all the satellites over a particular battle area close to home.
The reason Russia hasn't done this is that it would escalate a war they don't yet need to escalate in such a way.
@@ryanc5997 There is an old Chinese saying that it is difficult to move from luxury to frugality.
I get a sense that this won't age well
Just as everything else this old fool "predicted" 😂
@@yuriy5376 If Mearsheimer told me the sky was blue, I'd walk to the window, look outside and verify it for myself. Because he is wrong about literally everything. He either has tenure, or the University of Chicago keeps the old man around for entertainment value.
@@benfowler1134 well, somebody has to publish useless "scientific" papers on political theories that don't work. That's what he seems to be good at anyway. That's how these IR departments get their funding.
The last successful contested amphibious landing depending on how you define it was either Okinawa in 1945 or Inchon in 1950. Nobody has dared try it since then. Including us in both Gulf Wars
Why the fixation on the asinine "amphibious landing" in the more 'advance' Age of Blockade & Satellites & Mass-production & hyper-sonic-MISSILES? lol
Bet Chinese by now have a catalogue of ALL vulnerable points on Taiwan, and can hit them copiously from a few kilometers across the strait?
Then if landing has to take place, it would be to bring Humanitarian Aid to Taiwan.
That’s not how this works. Armies either dropped in my an Air Force or taken there in Navy ships need to seize land. No country has ever submitted to a non-nuclear aerial assault, not the Nirth Cietnamese, not the Germans and not the Japanese. The Res Chinese won’t have any better luck vs Taiwan than any of the others if they can’t land their troops. And doing that is really hard/impossible in 2024.
@@nirbijaif it were soo simple no one would be chatting about about it. China knows they would be ruined in every sense possible. This is why they haven’t done anything, still.
Falklands War was a thing mate.
@@Btujwnai6782 The beach landings weren't contested. The Argentinians didn't attack until the Brits has already established a bridgehead. But that is the closest thing since Inchon that anyone has tried that.
I could listen to John Measheimer all day long, so much insight and explained simply and clearly. A short video and I've learned things
Yes, so much insight. Like when he said there was no way Russia would invade Ukraine. His predictive capabilities are legendary
4:50: I appreciate Lex saying to consider China's point-of-view. To that Mearsheimer didn't want to answer or to expand on. He is biased.
100% biased, who gave the USA the mandate to be world police? I see nowhere here where anyone is saying, lets see how we can work together to ensure we all feel safe... Heads up guys. Taiwan IS China, just like Texas is America going to war over Taiwan is interfering in China's domestic affairs. This control and contain the world strategy is what's gonna have America becoming a third world country in the next 100 years.
He is. The Republic of China. Why care about the communist party of China?
he adressed China's point of view to the extent we need: don't question the One China Policy oficially, because then it's an obvious chicken game scenario. But everything else we don't have to consider.
@@nunterz Denying one China will result in severing diplomatic relations.
I love how china simps constantly get angry at people for not considering china's point of view so as not to hurt their fee fees when china doesn't give the first shit about anybody elses.
Lex, US was not the source of the so called "Century of Humiliation", it was mostly European powers including Russia at first, and later on Japan. US is deemed as enemy of POC by Mao because he needed support from Stalin to grab and stay in power, and Stalin wanted Mao to antagonize US to relieve pressure in Europe. The only time when US had a military action in mainland China was during the Boxer Rebellion when US participated a global coalition to rescue the diplomatic community in Peking. US donated all its share of the proceeds from that war's reparation to China by building the first university in China currently known as Beijing University, hospitals across the country which are still ranked in the top within the country, paying for Chinese students to study and live in US. During WWII, US policy of sanctioning Japan economically was the primary reason why Japan decided to go to war with US. The Flying Tiger, an US privately organized air combat unit helped the KMT to fight against Japanese airforce. After Nixon's visit to China, US was the first country which supplied capital, manufacturing knowhow to China in her initial phase of opening the country.
'Needed Stalin's support' is to be misguided. He sought Stalin because they were geographical and politically similar while China could exploit that grossly to their advantage
Mao tried to make friend with US. US refuse to recognise PRC. that is why Mao move against US. it was US that refuse to accept him, not he who refuse to accept US.
Exactly. Not to mention the US allowing China into the WTO which former PM of Australia and Chinese expert Kevin Rudd has said did more than anything to turbocharge the Chinese economy.
As a Chinese, when we talk about Century of Humiliation, it's referring to the fact that China is weak and other nations took advantage, and that "other nations" is a very large set of countries including countries in the Eight-Nation Alliance, which includes the United States. Some more recent "humiliation" includes the Yinhe incident and the bombing of the Chinese embassy in Belgrade. Of course, Americans have had their honey moon period with China and are not even close to the level of the Japanese, but it's a source of the humiliation nonetheless. If you're not familiar with this part of history, maybe try not to educate someone else i.e. Lex who's clearly better versed in this area than you.
@@RandomGuy-ghs Oh please, I would hardly characterize the accidental bombing of your embassy a national humiliation. The United States has apologized for the incident and paid compensation to the victims of the bombing and their families. Time to move on from a grievance mentality and adopt a more mature outlook toward international relations.
He didn't even mention the semiconductors that are primarily made in Taiwan in his top 2 reasons to defend them?
Those can be shifted elsewhere.
@mdzaid5925 Why haven't they? I don't know the answer. It makes no sense to me that 1 little island of the coast of China supplies over 90% of the world's microchips. Why wouldn't each country have their own manufacturing facilities in country? Just to avoid being this vulnerable...
@@evansmoak7182 It's simply because China played clever card. They became self sufficient (more or less) and pushed their currency to go down, which made production & manufacturing (of almost everything) alot more cheaper than anywhere else. Businessmen only care about their profits, so it made most sense to them to invest and manufactur in China.
Now, Taiwan is located close to China & has somewhat democracy. This made them a perfect candidate for high-tech chip production as this tech does not get's in hands of China.... but at the same time, Taiwan is easily able to access markets of China.
Now the world is catching up. US invested heavily in Chip industry under Biden, India is also investing in the same. Not sure about other countries.
@@evansmoak7182 because of taiwan's politics, economy and geographic location in asia, its the perfect place for manufacturing. The labour is skilled and cheap enough to supply 90% of the world's microchips. If you manufacture elsewhere, it becomes expensive or you receive sub-par fabrication.
Would it be cheaper to defend taiwan, or start building domestic manufacturing plants in your own country? Intel is building a very large chip plant in ohio; it started last year. iPhones are now being made in India. Nobody knows what will happen, but we can all make a guess.
Interesting quote from last month's Business Insider magazine: _'The three largest employers in China are the oil and gas industry, the Aerospace industry and the Mining industry. The three largest employers in the United States are Walmart, McDonalds and Home Depot.'_
Can you send a link to the article? I cannot find it.
Those are individual companies. Not industries lol
How about the Chinese construction companies?
@@yuriy5376lmao 😂
Yeah, let's just ignore the massive labor cost difference between the two countries in favor of some buzzwords to get people clicking. Lmfao.
Paying people 5 dollars a day vs. 50 dollars an hour makes the question of automation an easy one. Also, having 10x more people then you need who are more then willing to work for that 5 a day makes the decision to exploit people an easy one.
Lex, you and your guests provide great insight. Thank you
@@markright6759 how? You mean slander by the israel lobby?
Both the PRC and the RoC are dominated by the Han Chinese, who mostly see this as a Chinese issue. This will be settled by the Chinese, between the Chinese. The issue is how to make sure all the factions are served and we are reaching a point where that can happen.
this is a false narrative. US, Uk are dominanted by English. If US didn't get the help from France, it wouldn't gain independence from UK.
I definitely understand the risk assessment as a component of deterrence. Unfortunately this assumes the CCP cares about cost or risk.
Chinese prefer to save rather than repay loans，These costs have already been paid
You folks haven't discussed option 5 M.A.D.
8:00 Typical imperialist/colonialist mindset: win-win scenarios never cross these schemers' mind.
Fun use of buzz words.
Two things I could be utterly wrong on:
1) Eversince WW2, Pentagon has maintained capacity to fight 2 superpowers at once
2) China seems more interested in posturing than engaging Taiwan/America, given likely decades' consequences
Erm... Ukraine has exposed the lack of military manufacturing capacity to maintain a long high intensity war. US can make an impressive initial strike but if that isn't decisive (which it won't be against a peer enemy) then they are in trouble. Russian is out manufacturing arms vs the whole West, what capacity does China have?
@@Durnyful How did you arrive at Russia being more than at best near-peer, and then to whom? Also parts of Europe now considering boots on ground aside the necessary comittment to aid flow. The only way I see American aid changing is if POTUS changes this cycle, in which European powers increase supply and potentially introduce presence.
@@ryvyr Europe is nothing militarily without the US. I doubt even European politicians would risk ww3 for Ukraine & the US certainly won't as their focus is moving on to China
Most third world countries are jointly confronting the United States economically, politically, and militarily, and the collapse of the United States' global hegemony is not far away.
@@火箭翻墙 There appears much truth to that in parts, and Congress mucking about with aid where crucial as well selective inaction are not helping with perception of long held status, for better or worse. The US does wield plenty massive soft sticks and is by far the wealthiest nation in history insofar aware, though especially China looks poised to possibly overtake in maybe 10ish years~ New paradigms seem inevitable in long run, of course. LLMs and such could change all of this, as well.
In another video John said Russia won’t attack Ukraine😂😂😂😂
I think he relies too much on a thought that actors are rational and ignores the fact they can be irrational or have completely deranged picture of reality. There is tons of evidence showing that Russia-Ukraine war was thought to last a month or two. If it was successful Putin would become a hero for Russians, he would be cheered, his regime, his security and security for his friends and children would be guaranteed, the West would be shocked by the power of Russian army. This is a pretty rational thing to do if you know you will win. But something went wrong (if you are a dictator you always hear what you want to hear not what the reality is).
The same thing (relying on rationality) leads mr John to the conclusion about the reasons for the war - and his reasoning goes against the consensus from the Russian intelligencia. Pretty interesting that Russians studying Russian regime and living inside Russia have a completely different thoughts on that, right? Unfortunately what they say does not correlate with a wide spread anti-americanism and they are not heard neither listened.
Unfortunately the war is the thing which promotes nationalism and makes other things go away, so in my point of view the war is inevitable because it's the best way to hide away from an internal problems. But Taiwan maybe not the first - China can invade Vietnam or Philippines or whatever. War is a tool to make an average citizen of a country happy (at least he is a citizen of a country that is badass).
He explicitly said that Russia will do what they have said to do which is to invade Ukraine if the US tries to expand NATO territory/ the US sphere of influence further east thus infiltrating their sphere of influence right before their borders. Obama didn‘t take the warning seriously and so the Russias dis what they said they‘d do all along. It’s power politics, nothing has ever changed.
Because he could not persuade some interest groups in power
@@andrewzhukov304 No, Putin decision to invade Ukraine wasnt irrational, just very poorly informed about the horrible state of the Russian army and how much the European countries were completely through with his bullying over the last decade. Instead of a hardened, NATO-trained and armed Ukraine army, backed by the most extensive economic sanctions ever, Putin thought he could just have a quick repeat of the first invasion of Ukraine or even Georgia. Like before, present NATO a fait accompli and leaving them only the option of economic sanctions that would hurt themselves too (which meant before these had always been just a mere slap on the wrist).
And this is why most experts didn't predict the invasion. They fully recognized how foolish and self-destructive it would be as the situation had completely shifted over the last decade. But nobody had realized how isolated and poorly informed Putin had become in his ivory tower.
@@andrewzhukov304 China did try to invade Vietnam in 1979, got their ass kicked in 9 days and had to run back to the border.
China's Air Superiority could be a game changer tho. They have hundreds of warplanes that can fly at any moment around Taiwan...Unless Taiwan have been really serious with its security upgrades recently, only then they can defend the country.
When the western media talk about Taiwan as an important asset… critical link in the first island chain… to contain China strategically… before you go all technical and cold about this Taiwan and china issue, think about the people live on either side of the Taiwan stream, they are essentially the same people who speak the same language, listen to the same Jay Chaw song, watched the same movies, learn the same history lesson in schools, many have families on the other side of the water… so let’s hope there will never be a war between them… ever😢
It's not just a top priority for China, it is the conclusion to a civil war. As the famous prelude to Romance of the Three Kingdoms reads 天下大勢．分久必合，合久必分。
未必 (not necessarily)
@@allenliu70I think it will happen. That's why China has been China for 3000 years. The unity is what makes it strong. That's why the West is so scared. The West would like China to disintegrate like Europe so it can be controlled one by one.
@@nsebast you know nothing about China, which had already disintegrated numerous times in history.
@@allenliu70 With people like you for sure.
@@nsebast I'm definitely not a fan of imperialism & expansionism, which is the biggest threat to world peace in our time.
In another video he will tell us why Russia won't attack Ukraine.
You mean Nato?
But he’s warned against just that happening?
LOL
@@adamkallin5160Nope. He specifically said Russia was done during Bush. Then it was 2010. Then 2014 was the end. Mearsheimer's motivations are his political party losing Vietnam so badly. They've never gotten over it and it warps their brains.
@@Go4Broke247 Is there a NATO in the room with us right now, comrade? (You DO realise that when Putin launched his fascist, illegal and criminal war against Ukraine, Ukraine had already agreed not to join NATO.)
It's very simple how this will start:
1. China Naval blockades Taiwan
2. They'll use a "golf of tonkin" incident to start their war.
3. Outcome unknown
I would like to see what happens in terms of US action if the Taiwanese elect a govt that moves to reconcile and reunite with China. Would that democratic choice be respected or would 'regime change' be pursued?
that would never happen. elections in Taiwan are rigged by the US. The US needs to approve their candidates in order to offer "protection"
At present, this possibility is very low. The United States has deep control over Taiwan, and most young people have a very low understanding of China, and they have long lost their sense of belonging to the country.
@@owenchen-nv4ze also most young people in China have a low understanding of other country so the possibility of war where the populace is easily riled up is very readily available.
The Great Firewall has its uses in terms of population control more than any mass media has outside China.
as chinese we don't allow speak anything againest the chinese communist patry,i don't think taiwan want live the same life as we do
@@owenchen-nv4zewhat in the fuck is this stupid fucking answer? Chinese history is covered extensively in Taiwanese schools along with Taiwanese history, Japanese, Korean, etc. I’m willing to bet any kid aged 15 - 55 will know more about China than you AND they’ll be bright enough to know this while also knowing Taiwan isn’t part of China and that they are not Chinese.
Yes, water is a huge body of stopping power... For both sides. Which distance is longer between Taiwan Strait and Pacific Ocean？
When you choose to contain China, it has already been determined that China will have no choice but seeing a breakthrough from getting Taiwan back.
And the allies will also know that they are totally different from Taiwan, whether in terms of sovereignty problems or geographical conditions.
Lol the US has bases all over the pacific ocean, not to mention allies like the Philippines and Japan which can probably host US warships. The allied navies would get there way easier than the probably hundreds of troop transports required for the invasion across the straight.
@@cherny9756XD Your geopolitical and military knowledge is really falling far behind.
@@df140 well atleast explain lol, here to learn to not argue
This not gonna age well!
What about alliance structure in Europe?
Lex devalues himself every time he references Elon Musk but especially when it’s something that musk has no idea what he’s talking about
Lex lies about his credentials, he's not a solid person. He has no valid life experience at all..
@@java4653 idk about him, I just get sick of him and Rogan and the podcast crowd all being in the billionaire simp army. Amazon is getting sued for anti-competitive business practices by the gov’t. Thats the only reason Bezos is on here and Lex is just throat deep on him sucking it up.
This makes me think of all those people in the lead up to WW2 that thought the Maginot Line would hold the Germans back. 'Its so well fortified, the losses would be tremendous'
Different situation. That was a war of movement when the Germans blitzkrieged their way through Europe in 1939-40. A war between Taiwan and China would be a war of attrition if there. is indeed an amphibious invasion where landing forces try to establish a beach head and push inland and attack all the mountains in Taiwan. Even if you look at Ukriane and Russia now, you realise how much more destructive modern warfare is. Modern precision weaponry has made peer to peer conflict a bloodbath that is unseen since WWII but its even worse because precision = lethality.
The 'American' invasion of Normandy?!! There was me thinking it was an allied endeavour, with British, Canadians, Australian, Poles - and Americans. As a Brit I totally recognise the resources both in manpower and materiel that the US contributed. But it was a joint effort Mr Mearsheimer. I'd be grateful if you'd have the decency to acknowledge that.
American Ignora.....I mean exceptionalism. He probably just misspoke but it is all too common and frustrating hearing stuff like that.
American boats, American guns and American strategy. I would say it is at least an “American led” effort
Are you that insecure?
@@Carolina-gz8ug It's nothing to do with 'insecurity'. Having just returned from the commemorations in Normandy and seeing the cemeteries full of allied war dead, I just think if a commentator is describing the actions taken 80 years ago they should recognise the sacrifice and input of all those taking part. Not just those from the country from which he comes from.
Ten years later: Berlin was conquered by the Americans;
A century later: The WWII was initiated by the Soviet and China.
Modern weaponry have made it very difficult to do large scale offensive operations. Normandie was done with full air superiority, full naval superiority and they faced no anti ship missiles, no submarines and no drones.
If you want to guarantee that China will invade Taiwan, then all you have to do is declare that Taiwan will be part of NATO in the foreseeable future. Worked in Ukraine.
Lol.
So true
😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂😂
Funny how all the countries in NATO are protected From Russia. Mistake was not inviting Ukraine, mistake was not admitting them at time.
Wont happen because TW is not an recognised Country , so cant join NATO.
They already skip using the word invasion.
They claimed that they will have underwater subway to go directly to Taiwan.
It's a civil war within one country, so there is only unification between them, not invasion
That's a good point. These nations are constantly visiting each other for vacation and visiting family. Yes of course there will be a war. Look at the history. uSA only a dozen wars since 1981. China zero. And I hate the Communist Party. I just hate Westerners banging on war drums for no good reason even more.
They are brothers and sisters of the same country and race.
lol dumbest comment here.
John Mearsheimer, my favourite Geopolitics guru I can listen all day
Interviewer: You said that "A" won't happen because of 'B". Why "A" won't happen?
Guest: Because of B.
Amazing interaction!!
john is one of my favorite scholars who is still alive but unfortunately he is wrong, we are talking about China, a nation willing to go head to head with US in Korea, fighting most modernized army of the time, when they can barely build any cars and can’t even build an airplane, and guess what, they were able to push US back to 38th parallel, do u think attacking Taiwan is more difficult then that?
What is truly terrifying is that it is now possible to produce almost all industrial products
For America Taiwan is to contain China but for the Chinese it is for their national security purpose.
Which side has the determination at most if war broke out ?
The analysis that invading Taiwan would be extremely costly and difficult for China does not equate to their not doing it anyway. If the Ukraine War, and other wars, has taught us anything, it's that government and countries don't always act in perfectly rational way.
Given his previous predictions, that means they're invading within a year.
Over 90 percent of Taiwan is Han Chinese so China doesn't want war on their own kind.
I don't believe this - If history has taught us anything it's that China thinks nothing of killing it's own.
But if it has to happen it has to happen. We need to be reunited.
@@jacobl5488 Why?
Because we are one people. Both Taiwanese and Chinese are ethnically Han Chinese. Taiwan has been under Chinese control since Qing Empire. Its the western nations/Japan that split us apart. Just a few decades ago, Taiwan was singing the same tune for reunification its only in recent times that they dropped this cause its not realistic for them. Why Did England have to fight US in war of independence? Same reason. Maybe Falkland Islands should declare independence and Britain shouild just sit there. How about that?@@roganroberts8789
@@jacobl5488reunification will happen only under the Republic of China. Rule by a single political party is too ridiculous to accept.
It’s a bit simplistic. China wouldn’t risk losing its entire country over an island as once that can of worms is opened there are no rules restricting Taiwan and any ally of Taiwan from attacking the Chinese mainland for multiple reasons including to pull forces and resources off of Taiwan.
There is no real risk to the mainland. No one is interested in invading the mainland. They are interested in just defending Taiwan.
You should learn sth about military.
Taiwan is not even recognise by Japan and US... what "allies"?
Lol
Anyone who thinks you can't invade and conquer islands because they're surrounded by water... has never heard of the Empire of Japan's invasion and occupation of Indonesia and the Philippines
How is Hong Kong going under China no one mention it for ages....✌️❤️🙏
I don't think people even know the British took it. They don't actually know anything about the Asian countries besides a little bit about Japan maybe. It's all ignorance and misinformation
That one was british ruled, then the brit gave it back to China... So, it's Chinese.
Do you support British colonial rule? Why talk about Hong Kong?😅
Hong Kong, a democratic government sense, 1992. I wonder what the British was doing the other 145 years. Maybe you should read a bit of the British colonisation history of Hong Kong. this political game blaming on China, it become funny when you see the whole truth.
That’s what I said@@richardparker1338
"Why Russia won't invade Ukraine"
"Why Germany won't invade Russia"
"Why Japan won't attack the USA"
How did it go for them?
美国还是站在帝国主义的角度看待台湾问题, 但世界政治多极化是趋势
Alternative title: "Why water isn't wet. -John Mearsheimer"
I take dictators by word.
Hitler said exactly what he wants to do and he did it.
Mussolini said exactly what he wants to do and he did it.
Putin said exactly what he wants to do and he did it.
Xi said exactly what he wants to do and ……
It would be naive to think this list won’t continue.
United States said exactly what he wants to do and he did it
Israel said exactly what he wants to do and he did it
@@kunby this isn't as clever as you think it is, wumao
Supporting Taiwan's "democracy" is one of the US jokes of the century.
First 2 minutes is explaining how oceans work then his advise to avoid WW3 is give the military more money. Hard hitting stuff here.
It's Mearsheimer. He has no credibility left after helping Putin's PR campaign
But what if they tunneling like ants...?
In 1996 they announced a plan for high speed rail via a tunnel to Taiwan below the straits to Taipei...
I fought in the ring for years. I was 165 lbs. a 240 wannabe fighter challenged me to bare knuckles. I knew I couldn’t win. When we fought I played dirty. I had a broken nose and 16 stitches. He won. But he spent 2 days in the hospital and had to have his jaw pinned and still walks with a limp. I have not been challenged since. I am always scared to fight but their fear is greater. There is to much to lose.
"You have to have smart policies and you have to make sure you don't do anything provocative" and he says that with that ironic smile... this guy knows US is going to screw up big time in this regard:D Just like with expanding NATO and provoking Russians to invade Ukraine. Oh boy, poor Asian states have a lot coming in the near future.
Don't know if that's true the ccp and the chinese army are not all that when did they last see combat
"She had it coming. She was wearing a miniskirt. She provoked me. I have needs, you know."
China says Taiwan is a top priority.
USA: fuck your priorities and your kilometers
This is the same guy who was adamant that Putin would not invade Ukraine btw
Mearsheimer said Russia wouldn't invade Ukraine.
Fool me once, shame on you.
Fool me twice, shame on me!
This guy has not spent a lot of time doing military analysis. He seems more like a historian.
Agreed, I didn't find anything useful in the exchange.
Nah, he's just some old fool with tenure.
The problem is, a great offense beats a great defense. China has the advantage of being offense.
How about we just mind our own f’n business?
What? People all over the world have received the greatest gift.
Congratulations. You are now a world politics expert.
yes like the US did during the second world war
Picture you are being treated as an "asset" and being use as a pawn to keep China in the island chain. And now picture one day, when the pawn realize the king really don't care about you and want to be more than just a pawn... After hearing this point of view, I hope the pawn realize they are just a pawn
China will get Taiwan back. The question is at what price.
Whatever it takes, it is an integral part of China.
ccp is scared they would have to win if they don't
The American landing in Normandy? There were a few other folks there too.
Eventually Taiwan will understand they are better off with reunification.
why
@@swank8508 do you know what a proxy of war is? US does not care about Taiwan, it only cares about finding battlegrounds far from its own borders. It has China in its sights and Taiwan is the battleground.
@@swank8508Vietnam, Afghanistan and Ukrain who were and are US’s lapdogs have entered the chat
This is the guy who said Russia wouldn't invade Ukraine. Why anyone takes this clown seriously at this point is completely beyond me.
Great guest. Excellent host. Thank you
RS. Canada
2:22 “it looks like inevitably Taiwan will have to be a part of China.”
That’s news to Taiwan. Why are you internalizing the arguments of the CCP? Just because they say it’s a top priority doesn’t make it inevitable. For starters it’s obviously not the top priority. The top priority of the CCP is to stay in power. Second they want to become rich. Third they want China to be dominant. All three of those priorities will be jeopardized if Taiwan becomes a hot issue.
China’s export economy relies on trade. Even a partial embargo would be the biggest economic crisis since the Great Depression. China won’t risk the disruption.
China’s invasion of Taiwan won’t look like D-Day. It will look like an unscheduled cargo flight landing in the middle of the night and taking the biggest airport. It will look like a million drones destroying infrastructure and communications. It will come by air, not sea, and will be over before we have much to say about it. The question is how much will the US respond.
Your answer above shows exactly the wrong sort of thinking for that crisis. It’s by no means inevitable, and if it does happen we can’t let it happen quietly.
Hard to get across? The Spanish the English the Dutch should I go on?
Next thing you know Mearsheimer will argue Taiwan is provoking China.
The foreign media been talking about China going to liberate Taiwan for more than 70 years never get tired.😃😃🤫🤔
Great analysis!
The containment strategy is very dangerous imo. Like a mechanically closed system is building up pressure it will inevitably end up exploding if the pressure is not released in time. If you want examples, look no further than Ukraine, Nato was doing the same thing in eastern Europe prior to the war...
The strait of Taiwan is however not 6k miles, but 117 miles wide.
How are you going to contain them when everyone is driving tienr EVs?
interesting, Taiwan is in a very similar situation as North Korea. North Korea could stay the only totalitarian, old-fashioned, modernist (and not postmodernist) dictatorship in the world. why? because this country is among all the super powers (Russia, China and USA and its allies like South-Korea and Japan). and it happened at the beginning of the Cold War, when these super powers already had nuclear weapons. so North Korea became an island of extreme instability which then, ironically, caused an extreme stability in geopolitics. nobody dared to go in war with North Korea after the Korean War. because it is just in the middle of the region surrounded by super powers. not to mention that they already have nuclear weapons too.
Taiwan is in a similar position, but they brought out the most and the best they could, while the North Koreans did the opposite. Taiwan produced an amazing development socially, technologically and economically as well. and for this, too, the situation described by the "stability arising from instability" principle was needed there.
i hope this ages well
Can you imagine a US Marines led D-Day assault on Honshu if the A-bomb had not been dropped, the USSR had not entered the war and above all, had Japan had not surrendered?
It would have made the D-Day in Normandy seem like just another day at the beach.
I enjoyed the video,it is pure commentary❤
The most revealing statement at 03:00 "it's a top priority not to let them take Taiwan...many people will say it's because Taiwan is a democracy, but that doesn't matter that much"