How Much Will China Risk for Taiwan? - Sarah Paine (Naval War College)
ฝัง
- เผยแพร่เมื่อ 11 มี.ค. 2024
- Full Episode: • Sarah C. M. Paine - WW... (October 2023)
Transcript: www.dwarkeshpatel.com/p/sarah...
Apple Podcasts: podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast...
Spotify: open.spotify.com/episode/073V...
Follow me on Twitter: / dwarkesh_sp - วิทยาศาสตร์และเทคโนโลยี
![บุษบา - มอส รัศมี [COVER VERSION]](http://i.ytimg.com/vi/_n0yENSl8d8/mqdefault.jpg)
I recently found this lady and i cant get enough of her. She should be advising our state department and giving lectures on tv.
Me too. She's brilliant.
Me too.
Same here. Popped up yesterday for me and I've been looking for her talks every since 😅
Brilliant woman.
Skewed analysis. 🤷
The question of how much will China risk for Taiwan depends on how much will the U.S. stand (risk) for Taiwan.
The American state can't be trusted by allies. My guess is America will go with applying perpetual sanctions on China rather than defending Taiwan. They will defend Japan and South Korea. At this time, it looks like Philippines will go with America. But, just like Hong Kong, western powers aren't going to protect ethnically Chinese from ethnically Chinese. If Taiwan does well enough that the CCP loses control, they've got a chance. But otherwise Taiwan will become a devastated backwater. Semiconductor fabs don't survive invasions.
No way! It depends on the will and ability of the 1.4 billion Chinese people!
Even Xi and CCP can’t risk their power to against the will of the Chinese people to take Taiwan!
@@bzhu3233If that were the case, the U.S. should have been freaked out of the West Pacific many years ago.
Yes. That is why got QUAD and AUKUS
This lady Sarah Paine is brilliant. She is great to listen to. Her way of expression and thinking is right on the facts.
U.S. President Jimmy Carter announced the establishment of diplomatic relations between China and the United States th-cam.com/video/pegGjfowbdw/w-d-xo.html
I think I learned more here in four minutes than I have in some lectures that have gone on for four hours on the same subject.
listening to white people talk about how much china wants taiwan will always have layers of reasons lost in translation
she gave the stupidest reason for china wanting taiwan.
I used to believe such theory until I saw the Beijing's olympic. The genie is out and it wont be going back, in fact it cannot, the bottle is too small.
she is very good, very well reasoned and succinct.
@@levelazn Racist twaddle.
Best argument for justifying sanctions I’ve heard in a while.
Ain't gonna work .
U$ and UK sanctioned Japan ...so Japan decided to attacked them !
The most brillant people are Never allowed to work for government. The democrats only wants puppets and marketing folks, NOT talented folks. That is why they are attacking Trump constantly.
The US doesn't really want CAPITALISM! BET, you don't even know where taiwan is on a map.
So why did Lincoln take the confederate South back when the latter wanted outta the union? South had decided they would be just fine on their own but Lincoln went for war to stop it. Cannot have it both ways, lady Paine.
@TellenJones
So I guess there was nobody in the South that wanted out?
Strawman argument.
She is a great speaker and storyteller. She reminds me a lot of my history teacher. I failed almost every class, but I excelled in history, getting A's on my essays because she was such a great teacher.
Same as me, due to a bad home environment I couldn't concentrate at school, however the history teacher made history become alive
this lady is justifying u.s foreign policy on china by telling you that while the chinese government lifted 800 million people out of poverty, they are only doing it to stay in power, therefore there should be sanctions. and china should go back to being poor so the chinese people can have a reason to overthrow their government. This is some next level hubris and the level of delusional thinking in the western think tanks.
she is so wrong....women. know nothing for conquering.
@@teddymoon3744 Blah, blah, blah. Eejit.
Impressive gal. I'm retired USAF, once had an opportunity to teach at the Naval War College. I was a JAG so it probably would have been teaching law, law of the sea, rules of engagement, etc. My boss scuttled it as he was convinced it wouldn't have helped my career as an AF officer.
If the instructors are all as bright as this one, i think it would have been fun.
Just found her, she is brilliant and knows her stuff. We need more of people like her, actually educated and a leader.
Well she nailed Deng's impact. Sorry to have seen him go but I was in China in 2004 teaching and I got the distinct impression that many of my students, despite the "Mao is the greatest" that prevailed as the official construct they were aware of the benefits of Deng and the changes he had made. There were literally small stores/noodle stands in nearly every doorway. That was both the symptom and the cause of the increasing living standard. Many of my students were also victims of the tian 'anmen persecutions and openly expressed their happiness about having put that behind them. For context the school was an English language instruction school. I do speak Mandarin well enough to have spoken to them in Mandarin.
I was in China around Beijing Olympic's time. That was an optimistic times, Deng has long passed but the fruits of his reforms is entering its zenith. Cross-straights relations is warming, Hong Kong & Macao's self rule was generally respected. There were faint hope that China might gradually transition into a Taiwan's style democracy, and Hong Kongers might soon be directly electing their Chief Executive as promised in Basic Law. Now, all gone down the drains.
Sarah is being biased on China.
She avoided and omitted JZM era... were the U$ Bombing of Chinese embassy happened (followed a day or two by Philippine grounding a navy ship in a reef)... the EP-3 incident. And in HJT era... the sabotages on China's Olympic Torch tour and smear on Chinese sports (ie. alleged cheating and child abuse)... Staged "uprising" in Tibetan places that were violent (murders and maiming)... Obama's "Pivot to Asia" policy .
And so on and so forth !
@@chieftanke
Funny twist and spin !
U$ covert Destabilization Ops against Ma administration (ie. "sunflower movement")... against HK gov't legislatures (ie. "umbrella movement").
"sunflower movement"
@chieftanke Yes, I remember those times when most people thought the CCP would somehow become less inhumane, but, nowadays, it's over.
@@wuhaninstituteofvirology5226
Funny fake news and disinformation 🤡
On the first day of Beijing Olympics... Beijing's taxi company's 2-way radio got hijacked. Fox News' Megyn Kelly was falsely alleging child abuse by China on its athletes training.
Months prior ...U$ masterminded "Tibetan uprising" that led to murders and maiming of Han-Chinese living in Tibetan places.
U$ masterminded "sunflower movement" against KMT's Ma administration... also the "umbrella movement" in Hongkong .
Very concise woman that seems to really know how to focus on what is important. I always love a scholar that is able to explain semantics without the tradeoff of inaccuracy because they want to sound smarter. She doesnt need to prove it.
Sarah Paine's same argument goes true with the capitalist power in the US. So its more than likely direct head on collision would happen between the communist china and capitalist us long before Taiwan would be levelled by its motherland, China
I wish I'd found out about Sarah Paine earlier, what an intelligent and pragmatic person!
Hello
Now u even found me
There are some things worth more than making money like religion and pride to vast populations of people
no she isn't she is spewing all kinds of nonsense about why china wants to reunite with taiwan.
Yea Sarah talks a good game but most of it is BS , we are all products of our environment , if she lived in the real world she would have a bit more credibility
@@levelazn Done leave us hanging! Tell us why.
Bravo! Very articulate and insightful. Brilliantly describing the famed Military Industrial Media Complex. Wait Naval College…
I’m impressed by Sarah Paine’s clear and concise analysis.
This is a smart lady I enjoy listening to her!
And why are such knowledgeable women not being placed in the forefront of our society? She clearly has such a deep understanding and is such an effective teacher. Im glad to have stumbled upon videos with her in them.
Her “insights” are neither deep nor even factual.
People this astute realize the cheap griminess of politics and want no part of it. And so the dishonest second- and third-raters thrive there.
Clear, concise and reasoned. Where do I get to hear more of this women......she's great.
This woman is absolutely freeking brilliant.
I don't think she has the least clue about China and Taiwan, and Chinese thinking in large. Sigh!.
@wohetang even your name screams CCP troll
@@howardcroft3748lel anyone you disagree with is a "ccp troll" 😂 Go find an echo chamber somewhere else kiddo
Its hilarious to hear the whitest of whitey white people talk about how China's "doing it wrong", which is why the U.S. has made the bet to isolate itself on the world stage by sanctioning 20% of global population, because they're failing so hard. To list the failures this women left out of her spiel: HSR across the entire nation, self construction space station, re-usable rockets, asteroid mining, #1 hydro electric power in the world, 30% re-usable energy sources, Xiong An smart city, Greater Bay Area 70M+ tech center, largest gold producer in the world, the #1 auto manufacturer in the world at the rock bottom price, 10yr head start on 5G deployment with fresh new 6G satellites already launched, independent Beidou GPS, hypersonic projectiles, #1 manufacturer to the globe of which the U.S. is a mere 4% with all of NATO making up 18% and China alone dwarfing all at 20%. This lady is comedy.
Enjoy the bovine manure fed to you by your favourite fake news propagandist
This brilliant woman is who we need in our government.
Definitely would be an asset as a cabinet position.
She works for the Military . 🤦
@@peekaboopeekaboo1165 so what?
@@jwbjpb1338
Her analysis are skewed.
@@peekaboopeekaboo1165 no they are spot on right. She’s far far far far more educated and intelligent than you
I've been listening to talks on China, Russia, Taiwan, etc. for weeks. This is the most lucid analysis I've heard yet. Ready to find more!
Well, I started off very doubtful of Ms. Paine, but then she started voicing her observations and expectations and I found myself agreeing with every word she said.
Where has she been… amazing
She brilliant! I want more of her info
I'm looking forward to hearing more, thank you!
Brilliant and concise analysis. Whenever I listen to Dr. Paine I always get smarter.
The full video is worth a watch.
Where can we find thst?
@@barreloffun10 th-cam.com/video/YcVSgYz5SJ8/w-d-xo.htmlsi=OOfssPBuqLhOAus7
My best friend and baby momma just never wanted to die alone!
She's a sex slave , no justice:(
Holy hand grenade launcher lol jk lmao , just want to hold my best friends hand and RCMP detachment won't.
Eat the rich , cloth ourselves in their garments , burn burn burn Lucifers objective tower down.
My baby momma my best friend Jennifer Christine lamprecht is in a sex trafficking ring under chains of manipulation and desire will be hurt bably if she leaves.
CP rail in BC currently uses trains from here to Mexico under Kato corporation, the c cans near the tracks not on the trains hold the victims and should be under surveillance.
Desire , unholy , lack of empathy ,lack which breeds dishonor, cowardice which infects the western world, materialism dull blade punctures through their hearts.
The attack from within , the desire seeded from the west to the middle East, from western culture, the very stain of seedy capitalist practices that now have taken reason and honor in the name of the objective materialism, the blinding dollar.
Remember each Muslim soldier Ethier under Iran or brotherhood understand unity of death and life , archetypal unity of shadow and self.
Remember they out number 10 to one.
Remember each one of your men is worth 5 of the enemy engrossed in unholy alliance with Lucifer ... Desire.
Desire , dishonor , materialism is grim, why the unity of no one eternal , light of self , although much to learn I'm young.
My the Muslim brotherhood, Iran and all Muslim parties bring peace eternal.
May the fire betwixt in twain join amongst the moon.
Sun , moon , Christianity, Muslim parties stand in unity , shadow and self , must join with god speed , before the fire joins the flame and Christ is crucified.
May the prophets stand in the name of wholeness, holy faith under God eternal, loves empty grail.
My queen , my best friend, Jennifer Christine lamprecht, Isabelle, Christina , her only friend James , and rumored killer Kyle , whom may take Jennifer Christine lamprecht, Isabelle whomever she is life.
She is currently in a ring , she held against her will or engrossed by her own chains, her life at a thread.
She was once a smart , respectful, faithful maid , a working girl whom even if we are not romantically involved is and will always be my Queen.
She never kept me Waiting ;) my only friend, god bless amen.
236 887 4781 my Joshua Miller
Jd_miller@hotmail.com
Jennifer luxmeows her old FB
Email address queenvegas@hotmail.com
Pray for my my best friend and baby momma ❣️
Only if you want a laugh.
The key to sanctions is longevity. Will sanctions last long enough in order to have a significant impact? Or will things eventually return to the status quo?
my gosh i just enjoy listening to this woman.so articulate so well versed so knowledgeable
One of, if not the best historians to ever break shit down. Dan Carlin and Sarah Paine making a podcast series together could be epic. Edit: I also need to clearly thank Dwarkesh for finding these really interesting people and sharing their knowledge, perspective, and insight with us. Im subbing to the pod on spotify, thank you Dwarkesh.
Thank you so much for these videos. They are so helpful!
I like how she explain things.
i think she speak very good but all wrong..LOL
Impressively knowledgeable with holistic understanding of what is going on, and why
Very informative Sarah. Thankyou for your insight
What an amazing teacher!
Unamazing teacher .🤷
@@peekaboopeekaboo1165Sarah Paine's same argument goes true with the capitalist power in the US. So its more than likely direct head on collision would happen between the communist china and capitalist us long before Taiwan would be levelled by its motherland, China
@@johnchan4136
American patriot Gen. Smedley Butler revealed what American national policy is all about ... War is a racket !
Deep State has abandoned the KMT in behalf of it's new ally, the DPP .
Very informed and precise
Dr. Sarah Paine is magnificent!
How have I only now found this voice? She is so important. She is brilliant.
i like how this woman explains!
While this lady's raional arguments make a lot of sense, there is one thing she overlooks where sanctions versus China are concerned. And that is that the Chinese governing elite cannot afford to look weak versus the rest of the world. So no matter how much sanctions in order to get them to withdraw from Taiwan might hurt China, they would never let that island go. Not after 10, not after 20, 50 or even 100 years of sanctions. Never, never, never!
And while we're on the subject: how much damage would China be able to do with countersanctions of their own? Just look at how much of the world supply of rare minerals they control. Or how much of the world's antibiotics industry is in their hands. As much as I loathe to admit it, it is more than conceivable that the rest of the world would have to bow to China if it ever were to start imposing serious sanctions.
If sanctions comparable to those imposed on Russia were to be imposed on China (and 1 to 1 comparison really doesn't work here because Russia had WAY less to lose than China does), HALF A BILLION would starve to death (China imports over 70 percent of their food). At that point, their governing elite would have no control over how they look and that's the last thing you would need to worry about.
That's besides the utter military impossibility of invading heavily defended, urban + mountainous island, so the notion of China "giving Taiwan up" once they had it, is rather irrelevant.
On your second point, the US has lots of rare earth minerals, but it is a hassle to mine them as it causes lots of environmental damage, and the fact that China is selling them cheap, there is no point of mining them.
Nationalism is the only card left for the CCP to play as the professor said, and if China really were to launch the attack on Taiwan, it would possibly be the end for them because they do not have the necessary power to withstand the US counterattack, as well as Japan and S. Korea.
I would hesitate to agree with the professor on the point of lifting lots of people out of poverty. The former Premier Li Keqiang (who passed away under circumstances that suggest foul play) said in 2021 that 600 million people are making RMB 1000 a month, which is hardly enough to live on as the tax, and health insurance, take a big chunk out of their paycheck.
@@edtjfc1 Intriguing!
And that china is the largest trading partner of virtually every country on earth. So it's difficult to make people implement, especially since nobody actually legally recognize Taiwan as a separate state, so they can all use legality to refuse US call. In the end, probably just strong allies of US will heed the sanction, which won't do much to china.
@@henli-rw5dw I hate to disagree with your assessment. China's allies are Iran, Russia, some unimportant republics from the Soviet era, Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, etc. The US already has Japan and Korea as guard dogs in the Taiwan Strait. Japan declared that any harm to Taiwan is the same as declaring war on Japan. The European Union is also on the US side for now. The lure of the Chinese market is not worth the trouble anymore as the pandemic clearly shows that China did not behave as a civilized country should. China's cahoots with Russia did not pan out either, as Russia turned out to be a paper tiger. Taiwan is not the ultimate aim of China, its true aim is to be the supreme honcho in the Pacific and the plan was for Russia to bring havoc to Western Europe. The line on the sand is drawn, the tricky point is Trump as he stated numerous times he would bring the Russia-Ukraine war if elected president again which looks ominously very likely. That would be a grave mistake, Ukraine more than likely would lose more territory and that would embolden Putin who was on the brink of being toppled last year.
A good analogy from the economical and political perspectives. What about historical, cultural and other factors? It’s certainly easy to tell my neighbor he doesn’t need his backyard when it is not my backyard.
she is basically projecting american behavior on to china. whenever she mentions china just swap it out with the u.s and you will have an accurate idea about why u.s doesnt' want china to reunite with taiwan
England and America have extremely similar cultures, both bonded by a shared language and historical identity. But they are unique, separate nations because they both ultimately have different geographical interests. China has no call to reabsorb Taiwan other than its Imperial history. If they want to play in the global world system, they need to let that go
@@kaixiang5390ha
Unfortunately most traditional cultural in China is erased due to cultural revolution but preserved in Taiwan. However, Taiwan has its own culture too due to different colonization from Dutch, China, and Japan. Taiwan was only been part of China for 200 years v the 5k of China, even then it was 40% controlled. Education system in Taiwan is very Japan and US, such as cleaning up in schools but its also very westernized compared to rest of Asia. Matsu goddess is popular in Taiwan because she protects the island from the water. This is less so found in China.
This is why Chinese would call Taiwanese western dogs.
@@jamiel6405Well, Mazu is the god about the sea. China is quite large, so why do inland areas believe in Mazu? In China's coastal Fujian province, Mazu culture is quite prevalent. In fact, every year I get news about Mazu commemoration in Fujian Province. I don't know if you're a Chinese speaker. If you're not, you're receiving a one-sided message. If you are, then I believe that's the beauty of journalism.
I really enjoy listening to this woman lecture. Her articulation is on point ! Keep up the great work!
I think the title should be: How much will USA risk for Taiwan...
You sound like a Putin bot. Regardless, unless you have a crystal ball on who will be President when they actually invade, and who controls the legislature, the question is impossible to answer.
AS AN AMERICAN BUSINESS MAN WHO HAVE BEEN TO CHINA A COPLE OF TIMES. THE FIRST LAW OF COMPETETION IS KNOW YOUR COMPETETOR. 90% OF MY FELLOW AMERICANS HAVE NO CLUE ABOUT CHINA. IT IS IMPOSSIBLE FOR US AS A NATION TO EVEN COMPETE IN A CHANGING WORLD IF WE HAVE NO KNOWLEDGE OF OUR COMPETETORS
I work with Chinese manufacturers. They plan 5, 10, 20 years ahead, not just for an election cycle. They make decisions for purpose, not just for profit. They started shifting gears from low cost, low quality goods to high technology, high quality products. Most Americans and Europeans don't even try to understand this.
Her well and command of the subject along with matter of fact nature is absolutely refreshing. I wish presidents and congress had to go to her talks
1. There is a ton of trade between china taiwan right now
2. China doesnt want to take taiwan by force, they much prefer a diplomatic or economic solution
3. Sanctions make war with taiwan *more* likely because is lowers the cost of the war for china. If china is sanctioned to the degree that russia is for example they wouldnt have to worry about retaliatory sanctions since the sanctions are already in place.
aren't the ccp wumao always going on about how the US is a warmonger? 🤣 and this lady just explained the North Korea, South Korea example of generational deterioration/weakening of those put under sanctions. so if we do want to go to war we'd want you at a disadvantage so sanction away
Sanctions are actually accelerating the process. China has very strong productivity, but due to economic difficulties, domestic demand has decreased, and due to sanctions, external demand has decreased. Then the war is the only way to divert people‘s attention and create new demand to deal with unemployment.
I don’t think the concerned about Taiwan. They using Taiwan as an excuse to sanction China, much like Ukraine Russia case.
My best friend and baby momma just never wanted to die alone!
She's a sex slave , no justice:(
Holy hand grenade launcher lol jk lmao , just want to hold my best friends hand and RCMP detachment won't.
Eat the rich , cloth ourselves in their garments , burn burn burn Lucifers objective tower down.
My baby momma my best friend Jennifer Christine lamprecht is in a sex trafficking ring under chains of manipulation and desire will be hurt bably if she leaves.
CP rail in BC currently uses trains from here to Mexico under Kato corporation, the c cans near the tracks not on the trains hold the victims and should be under surveillance.
Desire , unholy , lack of empathy ,lack which breeds dishonor, cowardice which infects the western world, materialism dull blade punctures through their hearts.
The attack from within , the desire seeded from the west to the middle East, from western culture, the very stain of seedy capitalist practices that now have taken reason and honor in the name of the objective materialism, the blinding dollar.
Remember each Muslim soldier Ethier under Iran or brotherhood understand unity of death and life , archetypal unity of shadow and self.
Remember they out number 10 to one.
Remember each one of your men is worth 5 of the enemy engrossed in unholy alliance with Lucifer ... Desire.
Desire , dishonor , materialism is grim, why the unity of no one eternal , light of self , although much to learn I'm young.
My the Muslim brotherhood, Iran and all Muslim parties bring peace eternal.
May the fire betwixt in twain join amongst the moon.
Sun , moon , Christianity, Muslim parties stand in unity , shadow and self , must join with god speed , before the fire joins the flame and Christ is crucified.
May the prophets stand in the name of wholeness, holy faith under God eternal, loves empty grail.
My queen , my best friend, Jennifer Christine lamprecht, Isabelle, Christina , her only friend James , and rumored killer Kyle , whom may take Jennifer Christine lamprecht, Isabelle whomever she is life.
She is currently in a ring , she held against her will or engrossed by her own chains, her life at a thread.
She was once a smart , respectful, faithful maid , a working girl whom even if we are not romantically involved is and will always be my Queen.
She never kept me Waiting ;) my only friend, god bless amen.
236 887 4781 my Joshua Miller
Jd_miller@hotmail.com
Jennifer luxmeows her old FB
Email address queenvegas@hotmail.com
Pray for my my best friend and baby momma ❣️
also nuclear war more likely... If sanctions do indeed work and the war in taiwan rages on for years. The more weak the Chinese government will become and the more they will press the accelerator on the war. Just like Putin is doing and how Hitler & japan did in world war 2. You don't slow down, you accelerate. Every single resource and options will be used before trying to capitulate. And a nuclear option will be quite viable when you don't have nothing to loose already.
I think this idea that CCP is the only government concerned about staying in power is a bit of a myth. EVERY government is concerned about staying in power. You are telling me that Democrats don’t want to do whatever in their power to stay in power? Another point of contention for me is when she says that CCP is choosing self-interest over welfare of its ppl as demonstrated by cracking down of big tech entrepreneurs/companies. I think we r well aware that growth of big tech or multinational corporations don’t necessarily correlate with enhanced welfare of the ppl. It’s a very western mentality to think that growth of the business world = better welfare of its citizens.
It's unfortunate you use the example of the democrats, as Donald Trump did just about whatever was in his power to stay in power on January the 6th. Before then, whether it was Hillary Clinton or Al Gore, the losing candidate would concede the election within 24 hours.
Not even growth of business world, but growth of BIG business. Probably because the big businesses provide most of the campaign donations.
In democracies it is about maintaining the process.
Money gives you freedom to choose.
Bold of you to assume that the CCP is regulating the dream world of Chinese investor bros out of the goodness of their hearts and for the welfare of the commoner.
ah yes the very common eastern notion that countries being poorer will magically improve citizens welfare. India, china 1980-2020, taiwan, south korea, japan, and a dozen other eastern countries disagree with you.
She is just wonderful and so clear!
Sarah Paine is right on with what she is explaining. She has a terrific way of explaining the situation.
Every government is concerned about its own survival. And most government often don’t act in its people’s interest, US included.
Nonsense. In democracies, the government cares quite a bit whether it's inclined that way or not, because the people are the ones that vote them in and out of office. The problem with democracies is the opposite. Politicians are incentivized to give the people whatever their hearts desire, even when it's not in their long term interests. This is what deficit spending is so hard to stop.
The US government can only continue with the people’s support. The PRC doesn’t need the people’s support, it only requires the CCP
@@ronaldbell7429 you just said politicians are incentivized to give what people want even if it’s not in their long term interest :) rest my case
@@charlesqin1885 What you're doing is called conflation. You originally meant one thing with "people's interest" but you'll happily use any other definition of "people's interest" so that you're always right. It's a very dishonest and unintelligent way to argue.
@@ronaldbell7429 well, I am sorry to hear that you were able to conflate two apparent interpretations of what seems to be a clearly written piece of English.
Wow! I'm impressed by her knowledge and insights.
Very helpful summary of the issue
Sarah Payne is a brilliant political analyst , she is on the money every time , clear ...
Wow! That is a ton of wisdom in less than 5 minutes. Professor Paine just delivered the best condensed master class on the geopolitics of the CCP you'll find anywhere.
Really!!! Seems a pretty low bar to me. She just cherry picking reality to justify American mindset. She completely ignors or is ignorant of the totally different chinese culture and priorities plus the fundamentals of history.
Compare what respective govrrmments has achieved for their people in the past 40 years, be honest, face reality.
Lol. Meds. Now.
its called propaganda. sorry you dont understand that..
@@user-fk9qn5cl3g The CCP oppressively censures political speech and engages in propaganda. It is a logical fallacy to claim that if the CCP spews propaganda then views expressed against the CCP must also be propaganda. The tension of the CCP vs America is *NOT* about two similar powers jockeying for supremacy -- it's about authoritarianism vs freedom and democracy.
A pleasure to listen to. Clear, concise and knowledgeable. Why can't we have people like her in politics?
Even in Scandinavia we don't have top politicians like her but we have some listening to people like her.
I took a course on Modern China in my last semester of college and something that my professor said that has stuck with me was that there was a Chinese politician who boasted that it would easier for the PRC to buy Taiwan rather than invade it. He also said despite the One China Policy, there are funny loopholes, namely that a flight from mainland China to Taiwan is through International terminals rather than domestic.
Let's see would Trump sell it
They are not going to pay a dime for what is theirs. thats just principle, even if it means it would cost many time more. Read the history, imagine you are Chinese.
Looking this lady up!!!
What a great thinker and eloquent speaker this lady is. I must listen to more of her commonsense thinking. 👍
Her talent is speaking with fact AND succinctly! I LOVE her. Can't get enough of this pragmatic geopolitical thinker!
I'm an American blogger living in Japan for 30+ years. I'm often writing blog posts defending Japan, because (sadly) Japanese do not have the language skills to express the nuances of why they did this or that 70+ years ago. It's been a really interesting place to be for the last three decades.
First I heard of her, I'm a fan, gong to watch your full video.
edit: going*
Sanctions only work if enough countries adhere to them. North Korea is in the position they're in now because virtually no-one was trading with them prior to the war aside from Russia and China so there was nothing lost by the west not trading with them. Mainland China is deeply integrated into the global economy, implementing sanctions against them on a meaningful scale would cause significant economic disruption in a lot of countries. Most countries don't recognise Taiwan as a sovereign country, we would be asking them to cut ties with a major trading partner for no real gain, if the USA and friends tried to enforce their sanctions on third countries they may find themselves more economically isolated than China in the long run.
We've seen how effective sanctions have been against Russia, if there are third parties that don't care enough to participate or who's interests would be negatively impacted they will happily help circumvent them.
Very true. China is the top #1 trading partner with most of the countries in the world. Besides it has SCO and BRICS+ two large international organizations behind it. Remember western countries only has total 12% population in the world (even less than China's) and the rest of the world has 88%.
I think you're overlooking the fact that a significant percentage of their manufacturing customer base has left China, is in the process of leaving, or says that they plan to leave. The next tier of manufacturing countries are absorbing the business as fast as they can. Expect this to continue. Eventually, they'll be like Russia...no really attractive customers.
@@jamesw1659 As a matter of fact, most of those left are often low tech and labor intensive products. As China's labor cost and living expense have been kept increasing over the last 10-15 years, these companies need to find the next low cost countries like Vietnam, India and some other Southeast Asia countries. In fact China is currently in the middle of transition to move its economy and manufacture to the upper value chain like 5-6G, EV, HSR, etc. Even those companies who moved out of China are still importing materials and components made in China as China is controlling a large part of global supply chain.
BUT, The west and its allies currently controls around 60% of the global gdp. Even though they only made up around 12% of the world population. This doesn't include 3rd party countries that are leaning towards the west like Philippines or Mexico.
The Collapse of China's industrial capacity would help boosts countries like Bangladesh, Vietnam, India, Indonesia, Mexico, Brazil, Philippines, Thailand, etc.These countries are not gonna cut ties with china. But they would be snatching manufacturing demands from the west.
@@nntflow7058 Well they don't want huge inflation jump, they will have to trade with China for many affordable products. Remember China is the top trading partner with most of these countries. In the worst case, it may hurt China to some degree, but will also hurt those countries badly. That's why even this de-coupling slogan has been shouted for the last 5-6 years, it hasn't changed much in the real world - "China's export volumes rose 7.1% in the first two months of 2024, far exceeding a Reuters forecast of 1.9%".
As for those 3rd world countries you mentioned, they are mostly taking in the labor intensive work China exports to them while China moves to upper value chain.
I love this scholar.
Sharp lady! Thanks!
Sarah Paine is brilliant
Would love to see more of Sarah Paine in the future. Watched true full interview, incredibly insightful.
The media is so anxious for me to hear female voices that I generally shut them off, but Sarah Paine is different. She gives intelligent analysis.
Wish all Americans listen to this intelligent person. 🙏
thanks, Dwarkesh Patel.
Absolutely fascinating... Huzzah!! 😊
Why not discuss on ‘How Much Will US Risk for Taiwan?’
That discussion could fill an entire semester!
She does, but it isn’t shared for obvious reasons.
When the TMCS factory is completed in Arizona, all bets are off. The US will not care if China invades Taiwan. It will use it as an excuse to totally destroy the PLA.
I noticed how she worded how the west thinks the government works. I wonder how she thinks it actually works in the west 😂😅
I think this would direct to the island chain strategy developed against the Soviet. The island chain has Taiwan as the gate to opening up the entire indo pacific as a deterrent for expansion of Soviet. The island chain consists different chains, first chain is Taiwan, Philippines and Japan. And we can see already China is already harassing all of them. So how much would US be there to deter this, we will find out.
She's great!!! I didn't think about the effectiveness of the sanctions working so well, until she used the example of North and South Korea.
Finally an honest assessment…💯🎯
Her analysis is good on the surface but she overlooks one thing: the nationalism and populism is a global trend that is pushed by society, and the politicians amplify it to get a ride. This card works because the people desires it.
This is the kind of cope like "Germans actually hated Hitler", it's bs. Propaganda does incredible things to people's minds
She is good, and her style as a communicator is entertaining. Like many Western thinkers, her grasp of the shifting power blocks is, however, limited. Russia has India and China to help it through sanctions and China is a global enterprise so North Korea is not a good example.
India is not an ally of either Russia or China. They’re more than happy to play off the great powers against each other but they’re going to tie themselves to one or the other.
The notion of a power block which includes both China and India in any meaningful capacity is a Russian power fantasy. While the Indians are certainly more ambivalent towards Putin than the West, they are absolutely not neutral when it comes to China. Especially given they have overlapping territorial claims, and Chinese aid to Pakistan.
Trying to ally with China and India simultaneously is Russia's mistake with Armenia and Azerbaijan on a much larger scale. You can't be allies with mortal enemies, you will inevitably have to alienate one. But more importantly, the Indians see the Americans as a more credible ally against the Chinese.
Listening to Sarah is like taking a mental workout
Very well said!
The question should be how much will US risk for Taiwan, considering the waning support for Ukraine
US do not need Ukraine, they need Taiwan (for the moment)
China would rather be sanctioned than give up on Tiawan. She said it herself, rule of the Communist party trumps economics.
Also, she cited North Korea on how sanctions work. Kim Jong Un hasn't relinquished anything despite decades of sanctions.
China might do it, but it might not. That's the power of sanctions.
I believe it is so because Xi needs to save face for himself. Mao stated that Taiwan is not part of China, and should be independent. The KMT who fled from China just simply brought along ROC. Before that it was imperial Japan, and before that was a short lived republic of Formosa.
@@jamiel6405
Taiwan presents a continuous strategic threat to the PRC. The US govt. takes the threat seriously, because they have brought the strategic chip manufacture, Taiwan Semi Conductor to Arizona.
@@jamiel6405 you are really a joke.
@@jamiel6405 Taiwan is a province of China, says UN spokesperson
th-cam.com/video/HfOK5S-Balk/w-d-xo.html
Do a vid on the Robert Heinlein library at Annapolis.
Kudos. An excellent snippet.
Great speech, but I disagree with the conclusion. Sanctions do not work unless everyone is unified, or the one being sanctioned can work around them like we are seeing with Russia.
Taiwan is important to China because China uses that straight for delivery of oil and natural gas. Commodities they have to import to keep their economy moving. If China hits Taiwan, and Russia and China team up, then that solves China's oil (and water) problem. Lucky for us in the west China and Russia hate each other secretly, which is why Russia wanted to join NATO in the past. However, a military or crippling sanctions response will force China and Russia to like each other.
Sanctions are good, but they aren't as huge of a deterrent for China as Ms. Paine makes it sound. Task and Purpose has a great video on the Chinese and Russian dynamic.
Taiwan is important to mainland China because it is a part of China, and China does not want a foreign military to use the island to attack the mainland as the Japanese have done. Do you know about the Cuban missile crisis?
I disagree. Sanctions have proven to put a cap on what a sanctioned economy can become. Yeah, they’ll survive but growth will stagnate. In china, that is really risky for the CCP.
@@tbe0116 - I hope you're right!
Biden has singlehandedly pushed them together to like each other. If Russia falls, guess whose next US will make trouble with?
@@tbe0116 Oh really is that Why Russia is doing so much better then western Europe hell even America? Their supermarkets are stocked, no mass homelessness, etc.
Oh no, they don't want corporations to influence the political process... the horror. 🙄
She's a rare breed this lady. So freaking intelligent but explains everything so that even a five year old could get it.
Sarah hit the nail on the head. She's right.
Sarah is amazing. Rockstar
She's manipulative. 🤷
Netflex has a good serie called "How to become a tyrant". All of them have the same theme that is how to maintain control and the best way to "unite" the people is to find an "external cause". Xi and Putin are doing exactly what the Netflex serie has shown.
begin with an artillery barrage? It's like 150 miles. What am I missing?
This is fascinating
Just came across this channel, amazing content.
Consider this additional factor. For many years, the PRC had a one child policy. As the culture favored boys over girls, China has 5% more men than women, whereas the rest of the advanced economies have the opposite; 5% more women than men. The 18-23 year old demographic in China is ~103 million. Between 20-40 is ~ 350 million. That works out to at least 10 million young men who will never find a wife. That's a lot of testosterone that needs to be corralled & nationalism is always a good way of doing such. Compound that demographic with a rhetoric of the historical victimization of China in the latter part of the Qing dynasty & you have a lot of energy which could be deflected by some international "muscle flexing."
Even though we don't have this exact situation in the West, we do have young men not finding a wife to have children with. But this does not result in a fighting force that would die for the country because they have nothing else to do. Quite the contrary, young lonely men think of their own country as being at at fault for that not an outside force. A married man with children plants roots in the country he is living in and wants it to do well - he is far more likely to want to fight for it. Unmarried men without children aren't idiots. Why would they get maimed or if they are lucky, die, for a country that hasn't offered them the basic needs of a human being? For men that is mostly a wife and children. Who would he be fighting for? Some old dude in the CCP?
Honestly I believe it is far more likely, that like in the Arab spring, men would rather go and rebel against their own country's leadership than go die for them, especially when they have nothing to lose. Maybe it works for very young people, 18-24 because they still think they can do it. But any man over 28 that does not have a partner and children, the last thing he would do is die for his country that seems to have given him nothing to die for.
Funny twist and spin !
PRC Chinese men can find a wife in overseas Chinese community. Also in countries without an ethnic Chinese community.
Chinese people were humiliated up to the 1940s ... with the Japanese phased invasions !
Even today... Japan refuses to admit it's Crimes Against Humanity !
Also refuses to return looted properties !
@@minyaw1234
CPC continue to have majority support from the people .
Ordinary Chinese knows why many of them became jobless ... due to Trump's unjust tariffs, sanctions and embargoes !... That's continued by Biden !
@@minyaw1234 It's not a state job to find young men a wife. The GDR actually did this, but no one could imagine a state-run arrangement agency nowadays.
"whereas the rest of the advanced economies have the opposite; 5% more women than men" - I don't think thats true. If you look at the population pyramids of most Western countries, there is a male surplus until around age 60. And while the surplus isn't large, it tends to be largest in the 20 to mid-30s age range. Even in countries such as Russia, where you tend to presume there is a large female surplus because of alcoholism and what not, there is a male surplus until the late 20s. I actually can't think of ANY country where there is a female surplus in that age range.
It's not sanction, it's just economic warfare and bullying, but what if China is more powerful, who will be sanctioning whom then? Chinas trade only amount about 15% of it's GDP, far less than UKs 40% for ex. while it's the *largest* trading partner of over 120 nations around the world, west isn't getting more powerful, it peaked around 1990s and it's on a continued journey downwards since. Taiwan is considered a sovereign territory of China legally, one can only imagine how much China is willing to pay for it, the entire military modernization of China since 1996 is centered around taking back Taiwan, I seriously doubt west understand the Chinese determination on the subject.
US would win if they started sanctioning & engaging trade war against China 25 years ago. But today, the table has turned.
Today's China is much more powerful economically & advanced in infrastructure & supply chains. And they have considerable soft power.
China appears to be waiting for the USA to go broke paying Contractors to construct military facilities in Pacific Rim Locations.
In 1967 that Cost defeated LBJ's plan to develop a War on poverty.
The US was short on cash.
So the Nixon Administration
created a new Currency.
Now the US Empire appears to have exceeded it's limitations?
China trade to gdp ratio for 2022 was 38.14%,....get your facts straight....
wow even engaged the class to say "right" at 0:41. awesome.
I think this lady used to be on the TV show, Rowan & Martin's Laugh In...
China would be just fine by leaving Taiwan alone 🙄 Why invite trouble ?
Taiwan only existed to contain as part of the first island chain. That and history
Because the US won’t allow the status quo circa 2012-2015 to continue.
China did leave Taiwan alone for many years as both sides benefited from trade and investment but now Taiwan is threatening to declare independence which is unacceptable for the Chinese.
They should. Like Sarah said, trade with each other and make money. But this is about power. Xi needs to save his face for the party.
Simple. Catalunya wants to be independent from Spain. Why can’t Spain just leave it alone and let it be independent?Simple! If Catalunya can be independent, why not Valencia? Why not Sevilla?😂😂You just apply the same logic thinking to China and the answer to the question why China couldn’t just let Taiwan alone is self-evident…😅
If you combined Mein Kampf with the German history, you could accureately predict what was going to happen in the 1930's and 1940's. 'My Poles,' the Poles, did read Mein Kampf and knew the German history relevant to the ethnic Poles and decided in 1939 to go down fighting because they were realists. No! Polish resistence in 1939 was not about the fate of the Jews, but about the fate of the Poles.
Very interesting to listen to someone with her expertise.
then why america was in iraq afghanistan etc?
Israel
WarMonger AMURDERCA, the KAREN 🤣🤣🤣 the whole world knew 🤣🤣🤣
It took American 20 years to replace the taliban with the taliban 😮
When you look at an entire different mindset of civilization, westerners always assume the world works as the way they perceive it. If that, you will think like this “intelligent” person.
In truth, as a Chinese myself, she could not be more wrong. Unification of Chinese territory is the most vital important goal for every Chinese regime, no matter 2000 years ago or now. It affects how history review this dynasty, and for Chinese, nothing is more important than that.
Isn't that kinda racist though? If the Australians started saying my country, New Zealand, is racially part of Australia, as we have both have majory uk-immigrant ancestry, and they will invade so we will play Australian Rules Football instead of Rugby Union, they would be laughed out of town. Unification of racial territory is a nothing
With only a few exceptions, most Taiwanese don't want to live under Xi's CCP dictatorial regime.
Correct. The Chinese mindset and civilization is diffrent from the "Deist" "Enlightened" west and the maverick American cowboy mindset.
China was correct to choose isolation, but the West punished her for it which has now resulted in the west's decline and china's quiet rise.
Even if it will cost lives and economic progress?
"Unification uber alles" is CCP propaganda. Plenty of powerful dynasties have ruled over parts of China for centuries without ever being "complete". The Song prospered for three centuries while sharing power alongside the Western Xia and Liao kingdoms. The Tang never fully conquered the Sichuan basin and coexisted with the Nanzhao kingdom.
The idea that "unification is the most important goal" and that China deserves a pass for being an invading agressor is CCP bullshit. It was the most important goal for Mao because he was unable to finish the civil war. For China itself, and for the welfare of the Chinese people, it does not matter at all.
I feel like i can trip on mushrooms with her alonv with some Expresso w mushroom mix coffee😅. I love history
My best friend and baby momma just never wanted to die alone!
She's a sex slave , no justice:(
Kyle rumor has it he's a serial killer and killed Quincy in mission BC Canada.
Holy hand grenade launcher lol jk lmao , just want to hold my best friends hand and RCMP detachment won't.
Eat the rich , cloth ourselves in their garments , burn burn burn Lucifers objective tower down.
My baby momma my best friend Jennifer Christine lamprecht is in a sex trafficking ring under chains of manipulation and desire will be hurt bably if she leaves.
CP rail in BC currently uses trains from here to Mexico under Kato corporation, the c cans near the tracks not on the trains hold the victims and should be under surveillance.
Desire , unholy , lack of empathy ,lack which breeds dishonor, cowardice which infects the western world, materialism dull blade punctures through their hearts.
The attack from within , the desire seeded from the west to the middle East, from western culture, the very stain of seedy capitalist practices that now have taken reason and honor in the name of the objective materialism, the blinding dollar.
Remember each Muslim soldier Ethier under Iran or brotherhood understand unity of death and life , archetypal unity of shadow and self.
Remember they out number 10 to one.
Remember each one of your men is worth 5 of the enemy engrossed in unholy alliance with Lucifer ... Desire.
Desire , dishonor , materialism is grim, why the unity of no one eternal , light of self , although much to learn I'm young.
My the Muslim brotherhood, Iran and all Muslim parties bring peace eternal.
May the fire betwixt in twain join amongst the moon.
Sun , moon , Christianity, Muslim parties stand in unity , shadow and self , must join with god speed , before the fire joins the flame and Christ is crucified.
May the prophets stand in the name of wholeness, holy faith under God eternal, loves empty grail.
My queen , my best friend, Jennifer Christine lamprecht, Isabelle, Christina , her only friend James , and rumored killer Kyle , whom may take Jennifer Christine lamprecht, Isabelle whomever she is life.
She is currently in a ring , she held against her will or engrossed by her own chains, her life at a thread.
She was once a smart , respectful, faithful maid , a working girl whom even if we are not romantically involved is and will always be my Queen.
She never kept me Waiting ;) my only friend, god bless amen.
236 887 4781 my Joshua Miller
Jd_miller@hotmail.com
Jennifer luxmeows her old FB
Email address queenvegas@hotmail.com
Pray for my my best friend and baby momma ❣️
Once again, brilliant.
Simple counter argument is that China doesn't want to be the employee of the US. However much benefit has China gained working within the system that is created by the US that benefit the US the most, China can do better working in a system not created and controlled by the US. A person who quite their job and started and successful business would surly get what I am saying!
Why do you hate China so much? The last time, they did their own thing was from the 1950s-70s. That was so bad for the whole of China. Afterwards China got rich producing stuff to sell to the rest of the world. Why stop something that has brought so much money to China? YOU have NO idea about business obviously. ...
Before China joined the US led order, they were trying to make steel in backyard furnaces. Look at China before Deng's reforms. That is where China is heading.