The United Kingdom, After America || Peter Zeihan
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- เผยแพร่เมื่อ 14 ก.พ. 2024
- For those with daddy issues, today's installment in the 'Post American' series might be a bit triggering. If you're still reading, we'll be looking at the UK's economic and security dilemmas as the global order falls.
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The key phrase here is 'bit of a pickle' which is British terminology for 'serious trouble'
If things keep going the way they are we might end up in 'a spot of bother'.
Couldn't have put it better myself old chap
Just so long as it doesn't end up causing a "kerfuffle".
:))
I’d say that we’re in a bit of a jolly old mess old boy.
The phrase that popped in to my head was: "lie back and think of England."
Option 3 for the UK: piracy on the high seas. We’ve been there and got the striped shirt already.
Laffed out loud.
Health and safety and stupidly will get in the way first. "Come me lads lets board their ship" Did he just assume my gender?
Excuse me it's called privateering. Piracy is when you attack all ships and steal their loot and murder their crew. Privateering is when you attack all non-British ships and steal their loot and murder their crew, under licence from the King.
Yeah it's called Empire
aye captain
I've spend some of my best years in England. All the best from Poland 🇬🇧🇵🇱
The polish are great people
I visited Poland last year gorgeous country too 🇬🇧 🇵🇱
Brexit was a big mistake because the Brits lost our close economic and cultural links with countries such as Poland, Denmark. Netherlands..
Travelled in Poland and worked with Polish in the UK for years. Always got along really well with the Polish. Great sense of humour, straight talking people, and know how to enjoy life. Polish power! 🇵🇱 ❤🥃
@@morris9337 they are great because they remain white ! Something the rest of Europe should be envious of! Goddamn rest of them let the enemy through the gates willingly smfh
As an American who worked an expat assignment, over 24 months in 2006-2008, in London and Bournemouth, for what is now the premier I bank and bank holding firm, I enjoyed working w/ the British and being considered as the “brash yank” that the NYC home office sent over… Cheers!
Fortunately not all Americans are brash, abrasive and obnoxious. Many are polite, respectful, kind and gracious class acts.
Think you’ve missed some self deprecating humour from a well adjusted brash yank who spent some time here mate
Hi from Bournemouth!
When I come across Americans I find them quite extroverted, polite and friendly. Makes them very easy to talk to.
As an American, i have never met a brit i didn't like. I hope whatever path they choose they enjoy prosperity and health for all of their days.
As an American, I never met a brit who was truly competent. They talk from both sides of their mouth (management type) and lack any real value added skills. Very soon they will have no one to manage and they are doomed. Plus they let in too many radicals in their country.
Britain is like a rose - it can be beautiful, charming and attractive, but if you look closer the underside is full of pricks
Thanks, Were not too bad really.:-) We'd love to be closer to the US on trade but sometimes getting the right deal takes time when you are the B side....I think a trade deal may emerge when the US administration desire a closer relationship in multiple areas such as defence However I think we are going to need an uplift in the defence budget to around 4% for a while bearing in mind the current global situation
I've met plenty. Except Liverpool rest of em are weirdos.
Lol. There's plenty of them
That's a why lot of us paint Warhammer figurines as a coping mechanism.
Ok Carl
I was literally painting my Ork Trukk while watching this 😂😂
One of our great successes is selling Warhammer figurines to the Americans.
"The Emperor protects" the man says shedding a tear into figurine paint
Is that you, Henry Cavill?
As a 58 year old Brit, I have gone through the mental gymnastics of once thinking of our nation as a world leader to the realisation that we are not in that old sense. We have stuff to offer but should forge international relationships that serve us in meaningful ways and not just massage our collective ego. We need leaders who are not hell bent on Churchillian retoric in place of hard facts. This is why I like listening to your posts. You don't pander to sensibilities. Time for a national reset I think.
How about this then...and it pre-dates you and I: Churchill and FDR had the "talk" should the Germans have invaded the UK; both men were in agreement.
If that would have happened, the UK would now be a US state.
#truestory
although churchill dealt in hard facts
I’m glad you went through that and came out the other side. Hopefully you see what a terrible decision Brexit was for it. It was based on 200 year old thinking that simply doesnt exist any more.
To add to your mental gymnastics @andrewnorris7153 - As a murderous, psychotic, colonialist occupying force, Britain has a slightly questionable history, however, since the United States is fundamentally an unruly, bastard child of the now senile, psychopathic parent state; The US took the lying, cheating and dishonorable behaviour to a whole new level, with pillaging colonialism on a path of total global domination...
The stature that Britain once enjoyed may now be a distant memory for the majority of the domestic population, but the wealthy groups and families that benefited from British rule now equally benefit from whichever entity is crowned 'global leader' as they effortlessly navigate wherever they wish, plundering the resources and wealth from any and every country they decide to interfere with.
So, worry not that Britain is no longer capable of forging meaningful international relationships because the general population will be unlikely to benefit from them anyway! - we can take comfort in the knowledge that we are globally united in being the slaves to a power hungry, parasitic group of self interested bi/trillionaires!🤣🤣
if you are 58 then you would have grown up through the 70's which was arguably the most tumultuous time in Britains fall from grace on the international stage. Its been a slow slide into obsolescence ever since. Totally agree with you, its time for a reset, for our country to carve out a new future and identity.
“Hanging on in quiet desperation is the English way”
As a Brit I can tell you the country has never been so collectively depressed and I see no end to it….but it’s because of leadership
The mood is lower than ever but I don't see a leader who can change that. We had brexit, it didn't satisfy anyone especially the brexiteers. I'm just sitting here waiting for my Dad to die fast so I can get a bit more money under Sunak thank I would under Starmer.
No, your island has become overly leftist on orientation. Everything leftists touch, turns to shit.
That's because most Brits are quite leftist in orientation 😂. It's a depressing ideology.
We need to Federalise. I see it as the only way forward.
@@welshed We dont
UK can forge stronger ties with the Scandinavian countries
This is what I think might happen
Definitely for energy consumption, they have no choice. But that isn't all bad, having to rely on Norway & the United States as a back-up ain't too bad. Definitely more expensive, but you could have worse friends. Who else are you going to go to? I won't be surprised if they take an active interest in Guyana as well with all the cheap oil/gas to be found there provides them a nice portfolio of gas & oil to choose from but that fact remains is it will all be imported energy.
Yep. Only Ukraine needs the US. The rest of Europe will do fine without the US fraudsters.
All those Scandinavian countries are inside the EU
@@Bayard1503 The EU still does trade. $ talks.
American here. I admire Britain. Most of my ancestry is from there. I hope things get better for you guys. If you do end up signing a trade deal with the USA, I hope it helps propel you towards a brighter future. Please don’t forget us when we need your help one day.
America makes a point they can do it on there own they literally said that during the first gulf war. We ie brittian is doomed our demagrafics are not OK because it's all imagration and not the ex empire Jamaica ect so they can not or will not speak English hate the culture and very rapey
Epstein Island 🏝️🏖️🏝️
We would never forget you Americans. We just worry that America may forget us. They've grown way past us now and we constantly look east towards Russians and their possible conquest of Europe. We don't want Russians just a few Kms across the channel
As a Brit, this is a fair assessment of where we’re at, no one can articulate a sensible future for our land. It doesn’t really matter what the vision is, it would be good if we had one.
When he talked about the very vague possibility of Britain being a trade mode of sorts, I just thought there’s no way anyone in Westminster or Whitehall remotely has the competence or vision to deliver that.
the vision is being a subsidiary to US as the guy puts it just noone willing to articulate it
my vision is tomorrow
We had one … as a leading player in the EU .. but we stupidly threw it away.
I think a certain group in our country have a vision for it and not one the majority would agree with
As a Brit I have been looking forward/dreading this one. 😱
same
Me too
Same
Don't worry, there is a black swan event in America that is going to affect the entire world and it's going to blow up by the end of this year. The only thing America is going to OWN, is itself.
Totally! lol!
The UK should do what's it does best and return to focusing on being a maritime nation. It should redevelop its smaller ports for coastal trade and use the shallow seas for wind farms and some form of tidal power.
It's actually already doing this.
The Muslim hoards they imported to conquer that island won't give a damn about any of that. Britain is finished, along with most of Europe.
You can not support 50 million people with wind farms.
@@davidthompson4383Britain still needs to get serious about other nations fishing British waters. Spain and France depend massively on British fishing waters.
Byt do they still produce enough goods to trade as much?
This guys grasp on Geopolitics is hilarious! delivered with great confidence though, love it! 😄
TH-cam comments that think they’re geopolitical strategists because they disagree are also hilarious!
As an American, I've always thought that the British Isles have the most fascinating history in the entire world. I hope that they can pull together and emerge victorious from the coming world crisis.
They do , but Italy has a very rich history as well as France.
Don't worry about us,we'll be fine and we don't give a bugger !
Dubious, devious, treacherous..fascinating what people get upto on an island..
no they are not good at pulling from a crisis, they just good a misinformation and getting others to do things for them with arrogance
@stanleywoodison8699 of course. Poorer, weaker but fine
I’m waiting for the America, post America video. I enjoy Peter’s guess work and that would possibly be his greatest.
Read his book. Can get from library probably. "The End of the World, is only the beginning ". 😊
Definitely should be next. Discuss AI influence. Show your work!
I’ve absolutely nothing against him I’d just like to see his working that’s all. Economists struggle to predict even the closest of futures yet Zeihan is giving wholesale continental predictions.
Guess work? He was 99% correct on China. That aside, he's not pretending to have a crystal ball. Peter is fairly clear that he is making a strategic predictions. I don't know how you could have ascertained that there was going to be a high degree of accuracy. It is however extremely interesting and he is clearly extremely knowledgeable.
Is in his books. USA= milk and honey.
"Get rid of the metric system if we're in a bad mood." That should not have been as hilarious 😆
There's only 1 other obscure country that uses the Imperial system like the US. Ironic.
Don't take it seriously. We (the U.S.) are moving slowly but surely toward a more metric future.
Oh no, go back to the system we invented 😂 He thinks every country except usa is finished.
I'd like to see USA switch over to driving on the correct side of the road....
We drive on the correct side of the road, and rightly so.@@BMrider75
I just started my spring semester of college and win my POLI SCI class, we just wrote a paper on the condition of the "special relationship" between the US and UK. Timing couldn't be more perfect!
Peter Zeihan is a geopolitical strategist in the same way that I am an Olympic pole vaulter
So you're an Olympic pole vaulter.
Peter's a generalist. Specific trends or events are beyond his control to predict with precise accuracy.
LOL - some Olympic pole vaulters are KNOWN to say and spew the IDIOTIC NON-SENSE ...
( I hope you will have some BETTER success in the Olympics :-)
Your friendly CIA GEOPolitical ANALYST.
For more evidence look at his ridiculous commentary on ireland
I am no scholar, just a regular person speaking naively from the heart. The emotional bond the PEOPLE have with our British cousins is enormous and forever. I don't have the answers, but I hope we stay united in partnership with each other. Stay strong in your love for your country you have much to be proud of and to build on.
😂
You are Europeans.
If they can be Irish after 5 generations of living in the US it really MUST be a special bond@@ClannCholmain
Thankyou for the sentiment, both US and UK have a lot of house cleaning to do not just with our politicians but the system itself.
Best of luck XD
As a white American, I have no British ancestry or ties to Britain. I have never once seen them as a forebear to anything I identify with other than the founding fathers.
@@ClannCholmain”We have a SPECIAL BOND with the UK!!”. Lol I’m German, Dutch, and Polish, and live in a region dominated by Germans, Irish, and Mexicans. I don’t see a lot of Anglicans either
Peter has seen the light of Detroit. Hallelujah!
Mo Town is no place for a Whyte boi with a man bun. I suggest you run away before sundown.
Troy - white man's flight to the burbs. The home of Delphi until it imploded.
Well, there's a good side of the city, and there's a bad side of the city, where the factories closed down and moved to China.
The SJs in Detroit are my favorite people. Boston has some good ones too! @@big1boston
Can't wait for the "America after America" episode ^^
I can give you that now. All perfect sunshine all the way. It’s in Peter’s books. But he left out the US DEBT Mountain
we we're just at St. John's a couple days ago and I'm wishing I coulda randomly run into you lol. Cool to see you here and hope you enjoyed your time!
Irishman living in the UK for 3 decades. Wild sweeping generalisations here. 1. I know I'm Irish, but the UK honestly got over "empire" a hell of a long time ago. 2. Brexit regret runs deep here - just nobody wants to say it. The next government will have us align with the EU in everything but name. 3. Always amused by Peter's comments on demographic decline - according to him, that's pretty much most countries :-). 4. He talks about pre-eminence - but surprisingly never touches on Commonwealth. 5. "It will become a subsidiary of the American system for better or worse" - honestly man, it's been like that since the second world war. Britain just dresses it up as "the special relationship." 6. "Center of a global trade node" - not once have I heard any political party here talking of that kind of dream. Sure, Britain needs to work its s..t out post-Brexit, but the UK has no pretence about being at the centre. I kind of gave up after 4 minutes - I listen to Peter a lot, but his generalisations can be tiresome sometimes when compared to Ian Bremmer.
Sensible points all. Especially we need to get our sh*t together. Covers a lot.
1/ correct. only remainiacs go on & on about it.. as an insult. 2/ brexit was squandered, and now the rejoin bid by those in power starts.. but it will never happen. 3/ you can tell Peter is a fully signed up progressive liberal and his type have informed Ireland & GB that they will disappear unless they import 300,000 Africans every month. 4/ correct or TPP-12. 5. correct. 6. once i heard about it.. called Singapore on Thames. The remainiacs quickly killed it. Cheers. and good luck with Ireland.. you'll need it with Leo in charge.
Where do you live in the UK?
I dont see Brexit regret, I see people wishing that our leaders had done a better job of it, but I don't know anyone who would like to go back.
And if you did listen to him all the time you would know that he believes France has a solid demographic structure for the next couple decades.
My concern is that you either live in the city or spend way too much time on reddit, the online home of urbanites who don't know what colour grass is.
Also, clearly the population have a conservative and nativist view by and large, as the only thing driving the coming Labour victory is voter apathy.
What a strange comment. We, my friends and family, all British, and not one of us regret the opportunity Brexit has and will always present itself. The LEADERSHIP has failed, but the opportunity is massive. The two aren’t the same.
@@adamlee2550 What "leaders" are you talking of? I don't hear Brexiteers shouting from the rooftops claiming the whole thing was a success. Re: demographics, read carefully, I said "most countries" - I agree with you on France. Your comments are also generalistic: I don't live in a big city and or spend too much time on Reddit.
UK, as 51st state, would be like letting your ailing mother move into the guest house. Nobody's gonna be mean to mom.
Unlike Puerto Rico, who we would have to totally feed and clothe, mom brings a pension with her, plus she's always been there for us when we needed her.
If the uk was to be admitted into the republic, it would have to ditch the monarchy (gasp), then it wouldn’t be a united kingdom, would it be 3 or 4 new us states?
@@youngwt1 That question is definitely over my head sir. Maybe let the relevant parties decide if they want to go it alone or not. That said, the monarchy looks like a JOKE to this unwashed yank. Should have been ditched ages ago.
@@fredfox3851 as a clean shaven Englishman, amen bro
@@fredfox3851the monarchy in Britain is like the second amendment in the US, it is core to our national identity and it is never going to go.
Lol
As a Brit, i can confirm we have been in the NetherWorld for quite some time !
What percentage of your countrymen believe that the sun never set on the empire and that Brits still rule the world? I'm hesitant to make a guess, but I do know it is much higher than most people would ever imagine.
@@ascendant95 120%
@@nonono4347 Is that right? I saw interviews on the street in London and one of your blokes or mates or whatever you would call him said with a grim angry face that he thinks Royal England could beat the United States in a war. I'm not kidding. So don't act all high fallutin (or British if you will) with me.
@@wolfgangpreier9160 I think you're overstating it lol. It's probably more in the 30-50% range. Our British friend in the thread would say "bollocks".................but I think that's likely an accurate assessment.
@@pjl8119 That's interesting. I would have figured the old and wealthy Brits would be the least of the Brits to believe that. Peter mentions financial services often when talking about this situation. I don't want to put words in his mouth, but he basically implies that everything will move to New York and be absorbed by the U.S. I don't gloat about this. I don't particularly think it's good. I've soured on the British though based on their unbelievable arrogance and nastiness. I read a comment in another video where a Brit boasted about how he abused some poor girl at a McDonalds in California making minimum wage because she told him he has a cool accent. How dare she. Americans like the British, you might even say we love the British. It's just like with the stupid Canooks. All we get is hatred in return for our good will and desire to be friends. When what Peter described happens I won't be gloating. I'll just be hoping all of you stay there.
The problem with Brexit was those in charge of sorting it out were never in favour of it and so never sorted it out. Politicians these days don't care about democracy.
It could never be sorted out. Others (much more powerful than the UK) get a say. They do what is in their interest. Not yours. You toe their line because you have no better options.
There are 3 centres of global commerce and geopolitical power. The US, the EU and China. The UK is a little fish in a pond where they dominate and set the rules. You don't get much wiggle room to do what you want without suffering negative consequences.
No. The problem with Brexit is that it only makes sense as an emotional declaration. It made zero sense given our economic and social integration with European nations and markets. Lots of ludicrous promises, seemingly based on Empire-era memories, and absolutely no insight into the inputs our economy needs. Brexit was only ever chest beating and hand waving, no matter that it was democratically approved.
The horrendous Remoaner, Teresa May and her odious Chancellor, now both consigned to the political waste bin.
100%
Brit here. Peter is correct in that our history of empire and industrial revolution created a specific mindset in our elites that they have had a difficult time to adjust to in a changed world. This really lies at the heart of most of the problems the UK is currently facing, from the disastrous Brexit to our current relationship with the world's biggest powers, ally or foe.
I'm not sure in truth if we can escape the traps of our past, and maybe in general in a world spiraling downwards and out of control it might not matter? We are all going to be 'levelled' globally, by climate change and economic turmoil, and possibly WW3, that we will end up facing the same challenges as everyone else. So stiff upper lip and see you all on the other side of the collapse?
Peters view on everything : America is great, everywhere else will collapse
He is bullish on India becoming a regional power
Watching the EU and China implode in real time convinces me that he is mostly right. But that's pretty reductive, he has pretty positive visions for some EU members like France and other Asian powers like India and Vietnam.
American veteran here, time for reality to sink in. The free ride on the backs of the American tax payer is coming to a close 😂
He is fast to point out that America will undergo some major shifts, but at least the have the energy and human resources
@@warfarenotwarfair5655"free ride on the back of the american tax payer" is a fun way of saying you finally found out that maintaining an empire is costly
I was dreading this one! Thanks pal.
The other main issue with the UK is low productivity. We have not had meaningful economic growth for a long time.
We haven’t. The Tories have driven us into the ground, while passing the money out the back door.
Everyone is scared and fear is a productivity killer.
The uk is being extremely competent at destroying itself at the moment it doesn't need any more help on this issue
Give out more passports to colonies and see what happens.
All bets are off, what with climate change, AI and automation rapidly turning the tables. This is just the crystallis phase. The UK has a lengthy head start thanks to the industrial revolution. Nobody would have predicted the British Empire, but it still happened.
The UK is coming to terms with what the video is about. Germans running the show with Brit help the UK could tolerate. France running the show with no-thank-you-we-dont-need-your-help is too big a nightmare to face.
You are of course right, dear Ailouranthrope. Sober voice of reason if ever there was one. (In the past I would have shrugged, thinking "Mnmh... well nothing wrong with becoming the 51st state: there's plenty worse." That situation can now never return: USA is in a bigger permanent plickle than UK. Atchwally.)
What do you mean, Anglestan will be a perfectly functioning theocracy. It'll all work out.
They will find their own way somehow. They always have before. Brittish creativity & inventiveness are legendary. They are also a major hub in the global monetary system.
Modern brits have very different names than they did during Empire.
If you are suggesting the national spirit, the zeitgeist, has continued then you need to go outside and look around mate.
The ethnic and cultural group that did the things you hold in high regard are gone.
We are making a new path now.
@@adamlee2550 ..be careful when you go outside ..some other culture from the old colony might mug you.
Black Hub?
lol, old brits maybe, but new generation of brit are not anymore
not after brexit , the uk is in recession now
He literally said the only two outcomes for a country to be successful in this world is for it to dominate other countries and be a central power, or be completely subservient to a singular large power. This isn't the 1800s anymore. There are many countries like Norway, Switzerland, Australia, and Singapore that have highly functioning economies, not because they are a dominating power or subservient to another power, but because they produce things that are in high demand. Also you can be in a loose union with other countries where no one is truly dominant and it benefits everyone, it doesn't need to be dominate or be dominated. As much as people want the UK to fail, it is a highly stable, highly skilled economy with lots of options. The best option is probably to join a canzuk union with the five eyes minus america. Though even without this, the UK won't fail. It won't likely be a reigning economy of the world, but that's not the goal anyway.
Epstein Island 🏝️
Thanks for this information.
UK government is so bureaucratic, short termist and conflict avoidant, I can see them just accepting decline and not completing on any major trade deals.
Only a crisis like a critical debt situation would drive them to make a big decision like that, I feel.
hardly conflict avoidant. I wish we weren't so happy to jump into conflict
No vision or action from British leadership. Well said
@@samdunn717
he means internal policies not foreign military ventures.
The UK is no more bureaucratic than most other countries and a good deal less than many.
A government, especially in a democracy, is a reflection of its people!
There is no 'great British public' anymore just many sheep that go looking for shepherds among their numbers!
Labour shepherds or Tori shepherds...take your pick from the great illusion!
Europe has far more resilience than Peter imagines. I just cannot see Britain becoming a chillier version of Puerto Rico.
Europe, yes. Britain on its own in a world moving towards economic and military unions to gain and/or maintain leverage over their competitors? Not so much.
the problem with Peter is everything is exploding in the next 5 years and only has a on/off view of everything.
Zeihans view on Europe is completely delusional. To Zeihan everything is demographics, but that completely ignores advances in healthcare, technology such as robotics, automation and AI and the impact of mobility and immigration.
Zeihan makes the most absurd absolutist claims, like when he says that China is technologically backward even though the country is dominating digital banking with products like Alipay and WeChat, dominates network technology like 5g, dominates the electric car industry and is on its way to wipe out every company that isnt tesla, dominates in software development, from videogames (tencent, netease) to social media (tiktok). Furthermore it manages to completely electrify its grid in its major cities in ways the west can only dream about. You stand in a busy trafic jam in Beijing and you hear nothing because all its vehicles sre running electric.
He also has all these weird theories, including that Russia wanted to conquer Ukraine because it would make the heartland more defendible from a geographic standpoint, wtf? Russia has nukes, why would it need to capture some mountain spot just in the era of drones, just to defend itself against an army of knights on horses? Anyone that follows serious Russia experts like Vlad Vexler understands that Russia attacked Ukraine because their youths didn't support his rule and a succesful Ukraine more then anything undermines and threathens the existing power structure in the country.
There are tons of other examples, but in general, Zeihan is an entertainer, view him as such, be ause he is good at that. He knows nothing about geopolitics.
@@MyAnalyser GREAT TAKE
@@MyAnalyser Demographics is destiny. Have you never heard this phrase.
"Stiff upper lip" you're awesome! lol
Living in the US bubble you are missing the mentality change younger gens went through, they are not American they are very European and they will be pushing for closer UK - EU integration so I don't see how UK can get closer to the US
I think Europe will be alright, we've been at this game for a few thousand years.
Thousands of years ago you had marriage and families, now you are mostly watching porn in the same bedroom your baby crib was in.
Truth. He may live to regret these words.
Don't bet on it. Schools in Germany and Austria are 60% muslem in bigger cities
It’s also been a bloodbath over there for the past few thousand years so have fun going back to normal!
Except you had marriage and kids back then. Now you are childless and living with your parents 😂
England, once the seat of a strong union and a mighty empire, has been on a long slow bumpy downward spiral since WW1. During this period the country was handed two olive branches - North Sea oil and the EU. Both opportunities were squandered. I'd say that England has a ways to go yet but, by all accounts, there is no reverse gear and the nation appears to be heading inextricably towards a rather rocky bottom. There is no empire left, and soon no union.
Zeihan is the only guy with a man-bun that I will sit and listen to.
i really think CANZUK is britains future. although I never really understood why it always seemed like we had to choose to either get close with europe or get close with the US. why not both. but canzuk is a natural union between english speaking countries. i think the commonwealth is still pretty valuable though our government mostly ignores it which is a shame
Yeh the problem is we need a political leader with the gravitas to deliver that and I can't see one can you? Maybe you could do it!
Britain, for literally its entire historical presence, has been one of a rebel. Easily the most rebellious Roman province, then their eternal stance against Continental integration that was only solidified after the Hundred Years' War and losing their (quite legitimate) claim on the French throne, along with their Angevin and Bordeaux lands. Calais was the last to go in the 1500s. I do not blame them for looking at the EU like the horror it is, and for reacting similarly to an unfair deal with the US; they did rule a quarter of the planet at one point. Hard high to come down from.
They will find a way to muddle through; they always have.
The richest empires in the world were in Asia & Africa at some point. If those guys could swallow their pride and deal with their current realities, I'm sure the Brits will manage.
And Britain's trade and military relationship with Australia , Canada, South Africa, Singapore, Japan, UAE, Bahrain, Kuwait Saudi Arabia .?...didn't get mentioned.
Also Britain's substantial worldwide presence in the future for financial and legal services i.e. Banking, insurance and kaw firms......not mebtioned.
Mainly because in terms of trade there isn't really one Australia's trading value with the UK is at about 1.35% of total trade Canada is at about 1.59%. Trade with Spain is about double that, with France about 4 times. In terms of finance, yes the UK does have a bank in the top 10 of market capitalisation at #8 with HSBC. The UK does not have an insurance firm in the worlds top 20 by market cap so I am not sure how they are going to claim a large stake in the future.
Future Uk trade with Australia due to increase eg. Joint venture to develop Australia's nuclear submarine fleet
Worst case scenario always with Peter. He is a binary kinda guy.
To say nothing of the UK's future economic and military relationship with Ukraine which for a variety of reasons some obvious some not doesn't want to be too reliant on the US, France or Germany for its development and reconstruction after the war is over.
@@AndrewinAus But they have 3 insurance groups in the top 20 and if you follow PZ's reasoning you can discount the Chinese/HK companies in there. Similar story with the banks. Please don't pick and choose your Zeihanisms.
Nice setting. They have a concours there every now and then. Hope you get a chance to visit again when they finish remodeling the golf course Peter. Cheers bud!
FYI. St. John’s is not, and never was, a cathedral. It was a Catholic seminary from 1949 until it closed in 1988. (The Catholic seminary is now in the heart of Detroit at Sacred Heart seminary.) St. John’s was dormant from 1988 until 1995. In 1996, St. John's Center for Youth & Family was opened as a resource for diocesan youth and families. After 1998 it was redeveloped into St. John’s Golf and Conference Center, which opened in 2000. And since then a privately owned hotel called “The Inn at St. John’s“ opened on the property in 2006. So it was never a Catholic cathedral as Peter mentioned, and hasn’t been a Catholic seminary since 1988.
Thanks for the information. Zeihan tends to be selective in facts sharing
Thanks for the informative reply. Now I don't have to write one.
Gosh, born and bread..
4:44 The Brits recently walked away from free trade talks with Canada as well.
Now that’s interesting. That should have been easy.
Canada wanted us to lower our food standards on beef. It was a hard line for Canada so we walked.
@@aconlinThe irony, we had to lower our food standards to the Americans, letting in their dairy products etc.
@@aconlin But the uk gave in with Australia, brexit made the uk weak now in recession too, australia trade deal in not good for the uk even people that did the deal admitted it, the very minister that signed it
@@apb2081 Europe in recession, guessing they are weak as well eh? The Australian deal worked on mutual recognition of standards. The Canadian standard for their beef was just inferior to what the Australians offered.
I don’t think our politicians accept a reality where they have to sign a trade deal with the US. That would suggest a level of competence and self awareness that is seriously lacking
It’s not that we don’t want to. It’s just we’d have to accept the American terms of the deal because they’re bringing the money and we don’t like it. Our leaders will bargain for the best deal they can get.
The EU put us off bad deals, we can just be island state, it's hard to invade us and we can, if push comes to shove, feed ourselves, our only indigenous vegetable is a turnip so we are already in front!?!
4:35 the metric system joke
lmaoooooo😂😂😂😂
Interesting view point.😊
UK is like elderly parents asking to move into their adult children large home. But the kids have a family and other priorities. They'll allow it, but grandma and grandpa have to live in guest house or something.
As a Brit I am more than happy with that argument, better that than what Germany is gonna have to go through after the fall of the globalised system.
@@blacklighthologram5339as another Brit I’m laughing at your delusion and europhobia
I think it's more like that movie "Meet the Fockers"
at least Germany will have agency in that world.. while the UK picks up the scraps from whatever power they choose to serve... LOL, to think that the whole Brexit campaign was sold on Free Agency, you can't make this stuff up @@blacklighthologram5339
Please can I move in? Europe might be over if US pulls back support.
One thing you can count on. The British will come through this as they always have. With hard work and dependably.
Mindsets like that will guarantee nothing actually happens
Your videos are awesome!
Indeed…. Thank you, sir…
I shall go and make a fresh pot of tea and go and have a listen!
Pot?
@@chumleyk Teapot!
@@chumleykThey know how to make real tea in England. We just need to drink our coffee and keep our mouths shut about tea.
The royal family buys tea from an American tea producer. LOL read more@@jhrusa8125
Welcome to Airstrip One. We are at war with Eastasia, we were always at war with Eastasia.
Ironically enough, the UK really looks like an airstrip of sorts. 😅😅
Oh this comment deserves at least one thousand, nine hundred and eighty four upvotes.
This just in:
We are at war with Eurasia. We were always at war with Eurasia.
Winston, get to work.
As a Brit I feel we have more in common with our friends across the Pond than our near neighbours. It does however feel a bit weird when we hear mention of a colonial past, this was really a construct of the ruling class here in the UK.
It's the way it's seen from abroad by a non-Brit. He's basically got his biases and assumptions too.
I am a Brit, and you sir are on the money. We do have no choice. Though I would argue we would add several strings to the American bow also.
3) rejoin the uk as a more wounded version of ourselves after a silly and costly mistake
When you are down, the only way is up, the Brits have a half full glass not a half empty
Hey, if you are a true Brit, you don’t worry about your glass being half full or half empty. It’s about “hey! I got a glass! Watch what I can do now!” Harrow and alack ... how many True Brits are left in the British Isles. Within ten years they will be a minority. I wish, with all my might, it were not so ...
Yeah, pushing facebook-level motivation mantras will sure help.
I think it's half empty at the moment
We've just officially gone into recession
Hard times = good times , we will bounce back
At last a view point on the UK ❤❤❤ thank you Peter xxxxxxx better get my stiff upper lip really 😢😢😢😢 x
We do have the capacity to get close to self sufficiency in food & also energy via renewables. We do also have a small tech sector, with Arm & Palantir being 2 successful examples of British tech companies now trading on the NASDAQ in the US. The raw ingredients are there for us to move forward. It just needs strong government leadership to chart the course, which has been and is lacking due to various vested interests.
I do fear that the potential won't be realised and we'll fall back on our old established businesses that have been around for hundreds of years, rather than look to develop new industries and growth.
The class system is a real problem in the UK and it sees us fighting amongst ourselves for the most part. Until we have a vision of what we want the country to look like, greater opportunities, investing in growth, infrastructure for the poorer areas of the country, this will always be a drag on our progress.
Dude! Always in my town after I find out!😢
As a person from 🏴 I totally agree.Just like Rome did after their collapse, our empire turned into the British crown , relinquished all our military , relied on the US and Europe and now we are left in limbo. We lost our triple A rating, as did the US and slowly we are seeing other countries take our model and apply it better to their economy. We import everything and have sold most of our infrastructure and business to the highest bidder.......scary times to come
It won't fix all their problems but I think they should seriously consider CANZUK
None of the countries in the proposed CANZUK alliance really trade with each other though. Well except Australia and NZ
@@AndrewinAus It's not like trade with the EU is going to stop though. It's gone up. Furthermore, trade with the CPTPP nations will only increase substantially in the next 30 years. CANZUK is the right move for all the Anglosphere countries.
True but under CANZUK they would. How much it would increase is hard to tell. Even if it wasn't that much, which without market manipulation it probably wouldn't be, it would still be a step in the right direction by boosting the economy with trustworthy allies.
@@AndrewinAus Canadian and Australian students seem to trade places in both countries all the time. 😂 In all seriousness, yeah, they don't trade much with each other. If only the Canadian federal government could get its act together and get an LNG pipeline from Alberta to the east coast of Canada built to service the UK (and Germany).
@@BasePuma4007 many years and tens of billions of dollars for a pipeline to export an increasingly irrelevant commodity doesn't make sense. There are many considerations to take into account and you don't want stranded assets that destroy the environment in the process. Turns out that Canada is very big and has many people along the way who must be consulted and compensated. Meanwhile, check the price of natural gas, it has come down a lot since the 2022 shortage and all of the projects that will be completed much sooner than a pipeline across most of the 2nd largest country in the world would have been, and that will drive the price down even more. Increasing use of heat pumps and alternate sources of electricity mean that the price won't rebound. LNG is too expensive and there's no point to the UK investing in it for the future.
It's not just the American system the Brits need to embrace. It's Canada, Australia, and New Zealand too. Diplomatically we are the easiest to deal with and we all have common values and of course a shared history. When have the Five Eyes achieved the most? When we have acted together.
100%
What are the benefits that the UK can expect from such a deal?..and do they out way the costs politically and economically?..
Quite the day to release this 😅 right as the UK enters technical recession
For those unaware, ‘technical recession’ means recession
britain goes through many ups and downs, and yet our economy is still here, leaving the eu was not easy, neither was 2008, or what we lose as a result of buyouts, sellouts, and restructuring, and lost investments, but the towers go up, so do stocks re: arm
Aw you were in Detroit! Hope you liked our city!
As a Brit, I have no problem with any of Peter’s analysis or predictions, except - you can’t say Brexit happened seven years ago. We voted for it seven years ago, and we still haven’t got it (or “gotten” it, if you prefer!)
I love it when families reunite, the child grows up becoming rebellious and independent then resentful of any interference from the parent. The parent ages and mellows, finally accepting it can’t influence the child anymore. Then the parent grows old and becomes dependent on the child.
Except that some parents never depend on their children. That's one of the goals, right? Might not apply to the UK, but it is a thing.
America is not going to like the progress of the Islamification and Antisemiticifcation of the UK. And it is happening on a huge scale.
@@darthkek1953all the more reason for a closer union, such that the Americans can force their liberal agenda
huh?
Bollocks.
4:35 😂
Hell, may as well get em to start calling soccer soccer again while we’re at it! We did get the term from them after all.
Welcome. to Detroit! Interested to hear your views on the city's recovery prospects -- not sure that's your aperture of focus.
As a Brit I was worried where this would go but so far so good. Brexit to me was about leaving the ship before it sinks and regaining border control. Not ending migration but controlling it so it serves us. The issue is that despite having a "Conservative" government for over a decade, they have done none of the things we wanted with these new freedoms. Migration is higher than ever, less controlled, more chaotic and less joined up than ever. We've just replace European migrants with Muslim and African ones as if anyone voting for Brexit wanted that!
So far so good lol :D You lost the benefits of the free EU trade and that's it :D What an epic win for the UK brexit has been :D
The Brexit outcome was not expected by the UK establishment. They fought tooth and nail to frustrate it, including the deployment of some some extremely dubious parliamentary procedures. It remains work in progress.
your a fool to right off Europe
The problem is, nobody knows what the people voting for brexit wanted! From interviews and speeches during the vote leave campaign I assume, that most of the leading politicians wanted to stay in the single market. Even Farage had his "norway ++" deal where the UK keeps almost unlimited access to the EU with less obligations. What they got was Turkey-- though.
The problem with Brexit in terms of reducing immigration is that neither the Conservatives nor Labour wanted Brexit or to reduce immigration. The incredibly powerful civil service didn't want Brexit or to reduce immigration. The UK electorate has no real means of reducing immigration despite the people repeatedly voting for it - in Brexit or the Conservative record win where it was one of their biggest campaign promises.
Don’t hold your breath on that deal Peter
Oh, we all understand this will take quite a while. Try convincing Grandpa that it’s time to sell the old homestead and move in with his kids!
It will take half of forever, and a whole lot of talking. But the UK has burned just about every other bridge, and y’all are only just now realizing that. But the US, Canada, Australia and NZ connection is still there! The problem is that connection only goes through one place, now: Washington. And when an economy the size of the UK needs something from an economy the size of US+ Can/Aus/NZ (and Mexico, Japan and Korea in the mix as well), the smaller economy will have to give up some things. This is going to hurt!
It sucks having to move back in with your kids. But sometimes, you look around and realize it’s all you’ve got left. Britain can only work as part of a team. Without a wide range of suppliers, it’s basic agriculture, again.
@@nobeardthepirate8569 I think it’s best to keep treading water than climb aboard a sinking ship
@@bombardierboerboels there's sharks. get on
@@nobeardthepirate8569 Mostly agree, thanks for the analogy XD
CANZUK alliance is oft quoted as Canada, Australia, New Zealand and UK have so much in common culturally and historically.
It 'could' work imo, and then draw heavily on the Pacific trade partnership and go from there. We might even get a preferential trade deal from the US simply by them joining the CPTPP one day?
Frankly, I wonder if the affection many people have for the people of the UK is more than we deserve? But the love is much appreciated if only our politicians would use it to focus on doing a better job.
But Grandpa is Westminster, the family is the rest of the country telling them to pull themselves together and LEAD the nation into the future - something not done since Churchill's days. Careerists whose only goal is re-election and gaining power.
Our cousins in Canada are in bed with Castro, or was it Trudeau's mother?
Australia is ever the sensible pragmatist, when they aren't taking land from one Ozzie and giving it to another based on skin colour, and frankly have bigger fish to fry than the UK.
NZ made a lot of deals with China, let's hope it doesn't blow up in their faces.
USA is lead by - someone who can't walk UP a flight of stairs, but he's transient and Peters assessment of US resources and economic potential is true, whatever tomorrows global economy looks like.
I've never met an American that wasn't warm and hospitable, yet they elected a hair-sniffer that hid in his basement with his illegal documents? Strange?
@@bombardierboerboelsEurope (UK included) will be sinking far sooner than America. The UK can accept the American life raft or go down with the European ship. What other alternative do they have?
Hi Peter- Care to do an update on Bitcoin thoughts since your previous thoughts were so wrong to date? Thank you!
Peter, what are you doing in my hometown of Plymouth, Michigan? I used to work at St. John's in college. Did you give a talk there?
Britain went from being an empire to being a member of the EU. Britain is flailing around at random because it has NO experience being simply a nation state among others - it is a new, uncharted territory for them.
Bit like not having a partner after having one for years n years.
It's tough.
Your claim is unfounded. Britain has had a rich history as a nation-state long before the EU was created. Centuries of wars (both military and trade) within the UK's constituent countries demonstrate ample experience as 'states among others' and everything that means. Of course, in the last century, there was friction and problems of transitioning from being a global superpower to being a smaller and undoubtedly a more ethical nation. We can cry all we want about imperialism (as is very fashionable these days, as if it changes a dam thing) and the sins of the father, but ultimately, the USA took over as the global superpower post-WW2 and put a stop to imperialism (with the exception to the Soviet Union) The fact is, the US post-WW2 was and is a force that is opposed to imperialism.
There have also been decades since WW2, where Britain has made its own decisions about policy both pre-EU, during its time as a member state in the EU, and now post-EU.
The UK in many ways is in quite a unique position, there haven't been many truly Global superpowers in world history and yet we have moved to being a modern country and preserved many of our traditions throughout the UK. One of those traditions is very much what Peter mentioned in this clip, the waryness of our neighbors, sometimes to our detriment.
What I can say for absolute certainty is this, We Brits do not hate Europeans and to suggest so is frankly stupid, the EU referendum was extremely close with a massive majority of young people voting to remain. However, regardless of how anyone voted, the pressures that largely caused Brexit are now cropping up in the EU and as such, the EU is starting to actually take migration somewhat seriously.
Ultimately, we all need to stop pretending that the world order is anything other than the language of power, that has been Europe's (and I include the UK in this ) grand mistake with Russia. We need now to make decisive and positive steps moving forward and secure our allies and strengthen our collective position.
I may not love everything about the UK but I admire our history and traditions. We are largely both polite and practical people and whilst the UK has been suffering the effects of popularism, so is the EU now and I personally take no joy in any of it, tribalism is foolish and stupid, nuance exists and the world is not black and white. I want to see the dream of post WW2 live but It will take strength and determination to make that happen.
What are you talking about? The EU was created in 1993 with the signing of the Maastricht treaty, decades after the empire was dissolved.
The US is very much an imperial power. Among the few others still in the world. The US simply doesn't do much of the old imperialism of take and hold physically. Rather take and hold economically, politically, or militarily.
@@sirgalahad2 They don't have an empire or hold land, but sure I'll take your word for it eh? Look if you have a problem with the US that's fine but please articulate that point instead of lazily repeating a bunch of nonsense, also rather ironically, North Korea loves to call the US imperialistic, not a great look.
In a post Peter Zeihan type of world without mirror sun glasses and Colorado mountain scenery together with unrelenting cordiality and dated cliches .......where will we get our wildly sweeping dose of daily analytics.
The Anglosphere countries (US, Canada, UK, Australia, NZ) really need to stick together. Hopefully more as partners rather than as subsidiaries.
You forgot Ireland. And the USA is rapidly becoming part of the Hispanosphere.
What you mean is the US needs to prop these countries up and be hated for it in return. No thanks.
That bed/kids metaphor wasn’t the best I’ll be honest lmao
I am curious to what was in the trade deal that failed. Whatever concessions UK is an ally. And in this growing unstable world we need to keep our friends close.
The UK wanted a digital trade tax and the US found that to be a bridge to far
@@mossing234wtf is a digital trade tax already???
Never do a handshake deal with Don the Con. Magic 8-ball says ask again now..
@@Youve_GotABeard It can be a lot of things from monthly services like Netflix to if you order something online from amazon you get an additional tax. That second one is supposed to local business more competitive.
@@mossing234 “That second one is supposed to… what???”
Been waiting for this one to find out where I stand as a Brit ever since you trotted your new bestie, Australia. 😉
I mean, the fact that we all play Warhammer at least once a week should be a pretty good clue.
Haha no way you were here in the Detroit area, hope you had a great time. Can tell this was a bit ago as we haven't had any snow on the ground until today for weeks.
I didn’t se episode about Republic of Ireland in post US world - can’t wait to see what Pater have to say about Paddy’s 🤪
Wait for March.
You did not mention the Commonwealth. The Commonwealth is the second largest organization outside of the United Nations. The British lead the Commonwealth and this allows them to exert influence all over the World. The shared values and laws make it a very useful club to be apart of. Even Nelson Mandele pushed for South Africa to rejoin the Commonwealth after it was expelled for its aparteid policies. What value the Commonwealth adds to the future of the UK.....only time will tell.
The Commonwealth is purely symbolic and pretty low down on the food chain as far as symbolism goes really. As far as exerting influence all over the world it has not had that capacity in any meaningful way in at least 40 years.
Yes and especially in Australia where we do everything to deny its existance , but it has massive potential and we really should be doing more with it ...with or without the UK @@AndrewinAus
I think you need to stop thinking that the UK "leads" the Commonwealth , it doesn't work that way and its that thinking that pisses off the other members.
I'm from the UK and would argue that the UK are already significantly under the US's thumb and part of the US Empire. Not saying it is a good or a bad things....it's just an observation.
It doesn't matter how many times you say the USA is an empire -- it isn't and never was. It just means you don't know what an empire is or have a skewed view of history.
@SureSure-LitnUp I agree on this. The U.S. doesn't have colonies, doesn't waltz into other countries and establish U.S. rule forever. We're what a post-age of empires empire might look like, if that makes any sense.
@r.s.4672 what about the overseas territories. We almost made the Phillipines a permanent territory.(They revolted)
US empire isn't geographic, its financial.
@@crescent4996 Success in a free market is distinct from military coercion. Of course when dealing with ideas in someone's head, all concepts are sort of fungible if accuracy is not a concern.
Super interesting!
When is the Peter Zeihan travel vlog channel coming ?
6:50: "... it is the best game in town from both an economic and a security point of view, and, in time, I have no doubt that that is where the Brits will end up." Sounds like an argument against Brexit from 8 years ago. Like 2016, expect the unexpected.
Hi Peter, Loved and agreed with what you said about the eu. The UK created the biggest empire due to two things, the Industrial Revolution and Napoleon tying down everyone else in Europe.
We have never had a trade deal with the US but have had massive trade with each other. We are now the only genuine fully democratic sovereign country in the whole of Western Europe, even Norway and Switzerland are eu rule takers. That in itself carries influence with eu citizens that cannot reach democratically their eu decision makers.
The UK has problems but with the right politics they can be sorted. There is a lot of fat on the bone so massive savings can be made cutting quangos , reforming NHS , getting rid of woke expense within business and public sector etc.
we need to think beyond the eu and what groupings will form in its wake.
I forget to mention in my post that UK, Sweden and Italy are developing their own super fighter. Since the F35 rarely works
and Japan
It's very unsettling the way Peter enjoys other people's suffering.
maybe not unique to the British, but expect the usual of response of nothing (inaction is an option), until things get even worse, which looking back over time is usually what happens here..
Canada and the UK couldn't agree to a free trade deal. I think that says a lot. The UK and it's government still has an outsized view of itself IMO and it's hard to negotiate with a country like that. If the UK and Canada can't agree to a deal what hope is there for any other major power to agree with them?
Er the UK and Canada have a free trade deal. They were unable to extend it because of agricultural concerns mostly in Canada. They have basically the same FTA that Canada has with the EU.
@@mikeanson2902 certain chapters of that trade deal have expired and (afaik) other chapters may expire unless there is a new agreement. I think the UK Canada deal was a placeholder til a new deal was reached.
The UK's economy is over a Trillion $US larger than Canada's, it's also got a much larger population and is less reliant on non-value add industries like agri and raw materials. I think you need to recalibrate who's got an outsized view of who. The UK isnt in as good as state as it could or should be, but it's by no means a lost cause without anything to offer trade partners.
Why is the onus on UK to agree a deal? Why didn’t Canada agree terms. It took years for Canada to agree terms with the EU
@@warwickbartlett9930 Because the UK needs the deal more than Canada does. Canadians could care less.
I am 51 years old today and spent my whole life in the UK and let me tell you we been in "a bit of a pickle" every minute of my life!!
What about the talk of the UK, Australia, New Zealand, and Canada creating a trade pact that would allow the free movement between these countries of people, trade, and goods?
The CPTPP to which we are about to join has those countries and more: Australia, Brunei, Chile, Japan, Malaysia, Mexico, New Zealand, Peru, Singapore, Vietnam and Canada
@@tonygoode2702 As an Australian I admit its a weird bunch but those combined countries will soon be the UK's biggest trading partner, and you won't even notice it happening.
Been waiting for this one
me too 😧
Ah, we love you guys. Like the Canadians, you're our besties whether you like it or not!
I'm American and the UK does kinda feel like family, but it seems to me like a trade deal with the US would be tougher than rejoining the EU. Was the EU really that bad?
Germany was really high and mighty on itself and the French, well, they were themselves. Can't have been easy to wake up to smoke being blown in your face and Merkel lecturing you about how you should be more like the industrious Germans that are nothing but success and wants you to go with her to hang out with her guy that she just got engaged to be engaged with, Vlad, every Friday night.