It might be worth mentioning that the only place that AGI has ever existed is in the minds of science fiction writers. All we have is Narrow AI, and even that is being generous since it isn't "intelligent" at all.
Huawei sales revenue increase of 34.3% . On August 29 2024, Huawei announced its results for the first half of 2024. In the first half of the year, Huawei achieved a total sales revenue of 417.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 34.3%, and a net profit margin of 13.2%. Based on this calculation, Huawei’s net profit in the first half of the year was 55.11 billion yuan.
Whenever the Chinese enters an industry, prices drop by 90%. That is disastrous for incumbent players but wonderful for customers and consumers. The US literally shot itself in the foot but pushing Chinese semiconductor industry over the hump. Western media keeps saying ... "oh it doesn't matter. they can't produce the high end chips". When Chinese start proving them wrong, they change their narrative to "but their yields are horrible. They can't make any money." Take a look at Huawei's latest financials. They are making record levels of profits. I don't believe for a moment that all the losses are absorbed by SMIC. That is impossible. If the yields are terrible, Huawei will have to pay much higher prices for their chips and hence will eat into their profits. We don't see any evidence of that.
I remember 10 or 15 years ago, when western countries were laughing at China's inability to produce serious cars... Look at today... And guess how it will be in 10 years. So many Chinese cars everywhere (except USA). In China: it looked like 50% if the cars where Chinese brands, and there are so many different brands. A really boiling market. No doubt Chips will follow the Car route.
See this is the problem. We took away the chips that we were exporting and forced the Chinese to produce their own. The Chinese are an absolute manufacturing powerhouse with more engineers graduating college every year than the total amount of engineers in the U.S. What do you think would happen? Our excellence would last forever?
Can't wait till they start mass producing. 50 million graduates are delivering food at the moment. When do you think China will launch their chips?.... When 500 million graduates are delivering food?... What's your estimate?
They are making their own and closing the gap on the most advanced chips. It's going to hurt US companies in the end, Intel in particular, but Nvidia as well.
@@Quagma-b2i They are not closing in on TSMC. TSMC is already developing 2N with a clear roadmap to 16A while SMiC is still stuck debugging their 7N process.
@@vitamin168 lol. Perhaps you think this is still the 1990s or 2000s? If you don't know, they lead in 37 out of 44 NEW & CRITICAL TEchnology. They are not like the west who likes to announce what they plan to do, the chinese just keep things to themselves. The west is always minimizing chinese progress in chips and they don't say anything, prefering the west to think that way until they stun the west when they finally comes out with the final product, ex. huawei phone with 7nm chips.
that is a very common mistake in the west. people have a tendency to underestimate China, even those who should know better. They have problems, but also the capacity and will to overcome them.
Having left the nano fabrication sector more than 8 years ago you video always fill me with a sense of sweet nostalgia for a work I was really passionate about. Ciao from Italy :D
I was a yield engineer in the 1980s semiconductor industry at Texas Instruments. I moved yield from 30% to 80%, depending on the complexity of the chip. China's business is supported by the country at this stage of development. So, a lower yield will be OK for survival than private companies like TI in the US when they face the Japanese challenge in the 80s. China is moving its vast capital from real estate to higher-tech, like green tech and semi. China used to spend more money on chips in the West than she paid for imported oil. Western chip money can't replace the missed business from China, especially in the long run.
Super interesting: Such extraordinary developments, so clearly & excitingly described & chronicled & under pinning all of this is your love for the flora & fauna on our little blue dot in the cold darkness of space. Sometimes I despair of humanity, but you always make me feel that with people like you there is hope for our sinful species. Thank you for sharing!
I do too, but I do understand why one might see AI as a critical military technology. But I hate all the random tariffs. And I still believe that the more economic development China sees the less authoritarian they become -- even if it's not as quick as many people want or a speedbump free road.
@@petergerdes1094the brevity in you comment is just beautiful. Only those that know exactly what to follow will agree with your point of view. And here's what is being completely ignored. The global majority. Fort example. Embowale from Nigeria finished his degree. He wants to use AI cheaply to help his community. Does he buy a super expensive solution front Nvidia/Google? Or does he turn to a cheap and only slightly less powerful solution from China? The next 10 years is going to be revolutionary
They are getting left behind. Still stuck debugging 7N to improve yields while TSMC is already working with 2N and has technology plans for 16A. That is 3 full process generations behind.
TSMC founder Zhang Yimou was born in Zhejiang, China, and is now an American immigrant. And TSMC's main shareholder is Wall Street. TSMC is an American company.
Chiplet and packaging may be the direction China is working on to advance performance (by allowing more flexibility in design). Regarding the yield, it costs more (the waffer), but the government can support by reducing e.g. tax for Huawei. Chinese engineers are also cheaper, compared to western engineers. On quantum computer, the world is at the beginning stage, so no one really has "first-mover advantage". Tsinghua University researches on particle accelerator to achieve what EUV can do. It may take years to come to market, but China's speed is knowingly an unbeatable advantage (read more: china two bombs one satellite). As backup solution, they can smuggle whatever western chips they like. Shell companies may be set up in 3rd countries to purchase US chips in bunch legally. PyTorch/Tensorflow can be more or less replaced with Mindspore (Huawei) or Paddlepaddle (Alibaba). The models, especially LLM, can be tailored toward specific purposes, such as LLM for healthcare, for education; thus, limiting the data demand needed to train; thus, no need for advanced chips. Doctors never care about relative theory, why should the LLM be fed with physic theory data? 😉 State-owned companies can be instructed to buy chips from Huawei to create revenues for Huawei... All those measures help buy time for China, until they can remove this chock point. Once for all. Another rarely known strategy is that China may put a lot resources on a specific corner, making it market competitive (cost, performance-wise); thus, convincing tech companies to use Chinese stuff in their supply chain. At some point, when this corner is dominated, China can use it to leverage against the US if the US escalates the war. (like: "any tech inheriting from this Chinese tech is not to be used in the US").
it is NOT a competition when only one side(U$A) can change rules. Just like your classmate(U$A) use his family power coercing the stationary shop(ASML,Japan,..) NOT to sell stationary to you.
Yes, but TSMC will make it and at volume. Good luck in Huawei making any volume in this AI chip, it probably will need CCP financial backing to even be viable.
In what way has China been ahead of the rest of the world in the last one hundred years? First to fly? First to the moon? First to develop computers? First to develop reusable rockets?
China is a resilient nation. Despite all the international sanctions aimed at slowing its development, China is showing much faster progress than ever before.
Like how all the banks are filing bankruptcies and the house market is collapsing, graduates delivering food, and fighting in Putin's war. How successful do you have to be to die for Putin... 😂
@@danhtran6401 I heard that story every year and never becomes reality, sounds more as a wishful thinking. But the reality told the opposite, is not Rusia, neither China who has economy problems here.
@@danhtran6401 how come one bank failing in China is like "omg all the banks in China are collapsing!" .. Meanwhile, 3 banks in ŰȘ collapsed but it's no big deal right?! Lol man get some ÎQ. Oh and BTW, the biggest bank in the world is a Chinese bank, ICBC😂
To be honest people will always gladly choose 7nm over 4nm when it comes to patriotism, cost and Chinese name brand Huawei. Even for the international market it's a matter of marketing strategy at this point. The whole world wants China to succeed and over take US monopoly/hegemony. It's a moral dilemma rather than a technical one.
How much do you think that Ampere's story resembles the dilemma that the company Analog Devices faced back in the 1990's, when they started out as a prime mover of building Analog Integrated Circuits (along with Texas Instruments and many others), but early Digital tech was beginning to take over, putting them in an odd market squeeze? 🤔
Wonderful video as always Anastasi. ^^ Just a little catch @6:50 it is Emerald Rapids on display. Clearwater Forest has reached the fabs, but didn't made a public appearance yet to this day.
TSMC uses Multi-patterning EUV as well as DUV. If SMIC is planning to go to 5nm, I wonder if they are planning to go to OctoMP. I would expect that SMIC will have serious yield issues. Earlier this year, I watched a video on performance testing of the latest and greatest Huawei cell phone with their most advanced mobile CPU. The video indicated that these phones had issues. These were atributed to SMIC's yield issues.
China is rapidly catching up with its advances in AI processors! As Intel continues to push the envelope in AI hardware, it's important to keep a watch on their advancements.
Yes. I would like to see a vid about why Nvidia order for tsmc is struggling for tsmc. Why Blackwell is so hard to develop? Bad question or good question
I always REALLY enjoy your videos, I have a tech background but never having paid much attention to chip vendors/capability you deliver and do so in a very sexy way :)
Considering that all the power consumption from AI/crypto/rendering/web data centers ultimately ends up turning into heat, it's not as wasteful as it may seem. All that heat can be used to replace water and room heaters in homes and businesses, effectively resulting in no energy waste. With the current centralized approach it does require building the data centers in the middle of cities and connecting pipes to circulate the heat, but a better option it to replace the data centers with distributed computing nodes in each building and connect these to the existing water/heating system so that no new pipes are needed, just a good fiber optics link which is much cheaper to install and is going to be installed anyway sooner or later.
@@JorgetePanete You still need warm water for the kitchen, bathroom, laundry, and possibly even cooking (if there is a practical way to concentrate the heat, maybe using a special lens or reflector to focus the IR light radiating from a large heated surface?)
Discreet GPUs should be phased out because APUs are now capable enough. This could bring a lot of savings on power and would be great for the environment. But of course it's a different story for the AI chips, no matter how many environment we "save" it would still have an impact somewhere.
Yes, it would be interesting to hear about NVIDIA's struggles with their latest chip. This should help explain where the state of the art is. Presumably it's because of large die sizes, complex interposers, poor yield for the smallest process node or something. Cerebris patented ways to get around different thermal expansion rates in different materials; I wonder if NVIDIA will need something like this. Of course I'd rather wait for your next video than look up the real answer....
nvidia design is too close to thermal limit, it difficult to go higher with the same architectural. rather than pursuit way to stablised the thermal problem which may relief the problem fora generation, they should just change their architectural for better long term solution.
The presenter suggested to simplify the layout design to solve the low yield problem in China. But that will increase the chip size. May be that is okay, if it increases the yield.
the main reason U$A will never able to compete in Chip manufacturing. All the country that do well in chip manufacturing , has Confucianism culture. For chip manufacturing, a high level of discipline is the key, and most Americans today don't possess it. They call it “forced labour" Taiwanese media reported on August 2 that TSMC claimed the production holdup at its Arizona facility was caused by a shortage of trained American labour and that they had sent staff from Taiwan to assist with the factory's development. Labour union officials in Arizona, on the other hand, criticised TSMC for exploiting this as a justification to bring in "low-wage foreign labour."
"Labour union officials in Arizona, on the other hand, criticised TSMC for exploiting this...." Tell me you've never been to the US, without telling me you've never been to the US
why you think the US has a twenty two trillion gdp. everything is hyperinflated.my cousin drives a garbbage truch in san jose,ca he makes 124k/year and he is a high scool drop out. my sister in law makes 88$/ hr at stanford .fine me another country that gives that amont of obscene wages!
I'm a huge fan of your work! Your videos are always packed with valuable insights, and your clear, easy-to-follow explanations make complex topics so accessible. It would be great to see you cover more companies from your portfolio or those you believe have strong growth potential in the semiconductor space. With your unique technical background, your insights would be incredibly valuable to your subscribers. Also, I'd love to hear your thoughts on NVIDIA’s future-where do you see the company heading in the next few years?
Ampere and other companies have a tricky problem when their biggest customers are making their own hardware. I wonder if in- house design at hyper scalers will continue? Usually big companies outsource everything they can.
What I'm really interested is not whether China has solved their yields or EUV progress since those 2 will be eventually resolved over time with enough R&D resources thrown at it as China begins to create the missing supply chains. What I think is something that hasn't been spoken much about or at least on both the Media and Topic Specific Channels is whether China has started on an alternative to CUDA. CUDA is the reason why Nvidia has 90% market share and almost every single major or high perf LLM/AI effort is written around CUDA using Python/Pytorch/etc. Without an ecosystem built around a CUDA alternative, the Huawei or any other "AI" chip that China may produce will most probably fail or have lots of interoperability issues when trying to interface with other platforms. This is the same thing with HarmonyOS, although Huawei did an excellent job promoting and building the HMS ecosystem, it is still missing interoperability either due to sanctions or the reluctance of non-Chinese apps to compile HMS versions so HMS really isn't a factor yet in the grand scheme of things even inside China.
My greatest concern is water. At the moment we are pumping billions of gallons of fresh water into chip manufacture.When/Where is the tipping point at which we decide that people having fresh water is less important than computer chips?
It's still possible to get abundance of fresh water by converting sea water using the reverse osmosis filtration system. The real question is cost as the process uses a lot of electricity and leaves a lot of by products such as sludge.
this is not a problem for countries that get hit by typhoons and has virtually no desert, rainwater is plenty and abundant.. the reality here is that people still die in floods, in 2024
Yield problems affect just the price and if you sell an expensive product like the Apple M3 computer you can still make money. It is the cheap products that will suffer but they will never have top performance anyway. In addition, if the defects on the chip is just one or a few transistors you can design the structures with redundancies that can compensate. It is already done but maybe the Chinese will take it to another level.
Thanks for these update. It is incredible what China are achieving despite facing vicious sanctions and other methods we try to circumvent natural competition.
Great work as always! 👍 I would love to see a video about how the various CPU Architectures differ in their design (x64, AMD, ARM, RISC-V....). A big ask? Yes, but you would probably be the only person who could make it make sense to me.🤣 Take care. ❤
If you are serious about conservation and protecting the planet and the ecosystem. Then it is absolutely essential to curb the Corporations, multi nationals, and the so-called governments who back them to the hilt. Even going so far as to excuse their rapacious behavior. Along with making it easier for the entities to behave badly by policies that place them ahead of all priorities. That is how we protect our world.
*THE ABSOLUTE BEST THING AM3RIC4 COULD DO FOR CHINA* was to restrict the supply of chips - OMG have they stepped up to the task, the speed of development is amazing. Sure they might not be 1 for 1 yet - but the rate of development they will have surpassed the US [?] chips very soon
You should look at Huawei Ascend 910c, not 910b which is superseded already. 910c competes directly with Nvidia H100 and H200, and in mass production in September
To a large extent this is a self-made problem for the US. Instead of attempting to block access to technology - the US could have used the last two decades to become more self-reliant and the world leader in IC design and most importantly local manufacturing. China is fast catching up and will likely become the world leader in chip design and fabrication within ten years. The dependence on Taiwan has become a single point of failure. The future of Apple, nVidia and other hardware-dependent companies looks increasingly fragile.
Yes Anastasia Will be interesting to analyze the GPU production bottleneck also because I see there are alternatives, at least for inference, with other chip architecture.
i bought some dutch ovens from spotsmen warehouse(in minasota) the handles fell off the ovens at the first touch they didn''t even spot weld the handles talk about 5 th world workmenship pew!!!indian products,no one even touch them!!!!
On a general level, the questions for Chinese semiconductor should be : 1) how much of of the current vertical integration of chip manufacturing is a result of stolen tech/processes? 2) can China truly innovate from within without access to US and western tech? This applies both to the manufacturing of as well as application of semiconductors 3)Can the west replace china while innovating? Will it innovate quickly enough to overcome Chinese semiconductor manufacturing's vertical integration?
From what I've read elsewhere, sanctions imposed by the USA is damaging western chip development by starving them of profits from their top customer, China. As for the less than perfect Chinese A.I chips, are they completely useless throwaways, or still viable in some lesser form?
China will fill the current need using the DUV, but it will be ineffective to go down the road of replication of EUV and packaging. They are probably working on commercializing a new tech to disrupt the market and become leaders as we speak.
@@adr2t look up their Taichi photonic chip. Thousands of times faster and more efficient than its Nvidia equivalent the H100. They also already have a pilot production line for mass producing these chips operational in Shanghai since last year. The West is still on the drawing board. Not even close to mass production.
China could also easily ban trade of rare earth metals , the the US would be able to produce no chips at all.. Luckily for the US, China is not petty like the US... If China really wanted to, China could easily, completely destroy Western manufacturing and their economies. Yes it would hurt China too, but not as much as it would hurt the West..
@AnastasiaInTech : The biggest bottle neck for China is the lithography machines, and I believe all other troubles come from there. I indeed believe that they will not replicate EUV but come up with something different (better or just different). It would be great if you could cover this? What are they investing the lithography R&D money in?
@@antonystringfellow5152 Are they, or is this just for PR. Intel, TSMC, have software with which you design what you want - Process Design Kits (PDKs). One throwaway comment I heard. "At the last conference, they were talking about how they are thinking about integrating AI in the design process." I'd like Anastasi to comment. I want to know if I'm wrong.
Hi Anastasia. Yes please do a video on TSMC struggle with some GPUs. Also where are the Chinese GPUs being manufactured? Are they 5nm equivalent to other foundries 5nm? Thanks
aside from producing the most advanced chip with the less NM, China is founding other innovative ways of getting the same performance with less. Look at the their latest 7nm, it's was able out perform most of the 5nm chips by qualcomm, apple and Samsung. Their 5nm should be able to match 3nm chips in the overalls performance
It should be interesting when China brings online their steady-state microbunching (SSMB) extreme-ultraviolet (EUV) light particle accelerator for chip manufacturing.
Compared to China, the US has a very small population. This means that the effort of every person counts... but our young generations want to be rich influencers. It's a direct response to hopelessness in the face of our current market adversity. Homes are 100 times over priced, and we're statistically underpaid. We have no engineers, and everyone is busy with politics. Our country isnt focused, and exactly where China wants us.
Thanks for the overview. So many players developing AI chips. Everyone is fighting for their place in the economic market and data centers. I think this will bring innovations and new developments, but the fight will be hard and sometimes dirty. Everyone wants to dominate the market. Will that work? I have my doubts. Best wishes from Germany 😎. (translated with Google-Ai)
I think China shoud focus more on manufacturing lithography machines than producing chips because if SMIC has newest ASML machines they wouldn't have these problems but they don't have it and I don't see that's changing
Gallium Nitrite semiconductors with a diamond substrate. China now capable of industrial production. Other countries still at lab stage. China also produces 95% of artificial diamonds in the world.
Check out Planet Wild: planetwild.com/r/anastasiintech/m14
thanks for the video !
please
*Definitely* do the video on blackwell
Thank you Anastasi
It might be worth mentioning that the only place that AGI has ever existed is in the minds of science fiction writers. All we have is Narrow AI, and even that is being generous since it isn't "intelligent" at all.
Huawei sales revenue increase of 34.3% .
On August 29 2024, Huawei announced its results for the first half of 2024. In the first half of the year, Huawei achieved a total sales revenue of 417.5 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 34.3%, and a net profit margin of 13.2%. Based on this calculation, Huawei’s net profit in the first half of the year was 55.11 billion yuan.
When it comes to subtlety you kinda suck lol
Whenever the Chinese enters an industry, prices drop by 90%. That is disastrous for incumbent players but wonderful for customers and consumers. The US literally shot itself in the foot but pushing Chinese semiconductor industry over the hump. Western media keeps saying ... "oh it doesn't matter. they can't produce the high end chips". When Chinese start proving them wrong, they change their narrative to "but their yields are horrible. They can't make any money." Take a look at Huawei's latest financials. They are making record levels of profits. I don't believe for a moment that all the losses are absorbed by SMIC. That is impossible. If the yields are terrible, Huawei will have to pay much higher prices for their chips and hence will eat into their profits. We don't see any evidence of that.
I remember 10 or 15 years ago, when western countries were laughing at China's inability to produce serious cars... Look at today... And guess how it will be in 10 years. So many Chinese cars everywhere (except USA). In China: it looked like 50% if the cars where Chinese brands, and there are so many different brands. A really boiling market.
No doubt Chips will follow the Car route.
Which means the original makers were exploiting the customers like Louis Vuitton and Hermes in woman's handbags.
That's because they aren't selling any AI chips. None whatsoever. All of their money is from phone sales, and government contracts.
@@sergedecoster5388 The CCP subsidizes companies like them.
No one on earth can buy Chinese AI accelerators- they don't yet exist.
See this is the problem. We took away the chips that we were exporting and forced the Chinese to produce their own. The Chinese are an absolute manufacturing powerhouse with more engineers graduating college every year than the total amount of engineers in the U.S. What do you think would happen? Our excellence would last forever?
Maybe the US is run by a bunch of morons.
Can't wait till they start mass producing. 50 million graduates are delivering food at the moment. When do you think China will launch their chips?.... When 500 million graduates are delivering food?... What's your estimate?
They are making their own and closing the gap on the most advanced chips. It's going to hurt US companies in the end, Intel in particular, but Nvidia as well.
@@danhtran6401五亿？还不到总人口的一半？太少了，应该是全国所有人都在送外卖…
@@Quagma-b2i They are not closing in on TSMC. TSMC is already developing 2N with a clear roadmap to 16A while SMiC is still stuck debugging their 7N process.
The record of China's progress is always far better than that expected.
No, it is not.
It’s way better…Chinese don’t do things with 30% or even 50% yields.
@@vitamin168 lol. Perhaps you think this is still the 1990s or 2000s? If you don't know, they lead in 37 out of 44 NEW & CRITICAL TEchnology.
They are not like the west who likes to announce what they plan to do, the chinese just keep things to themselves. The west is always minimizing chinese progress in chips and they don't say anything, prefering the west to think that way until they stun the west when they finally comes out with the final product, ex. huawei phone with 7nm chips.
The record of chinese lies
@@vitamin168 taiwanese are chinese too
Never underestimate China"s ability to overcome peoblems.
@@thewelshdragon.5979
Peoblem = people problem?
that is a very common mistake in the west. people have a tendency to underestimate China, even those who should know better. They have problems, but also the capacity and will to overcome them.
@@Kawitamamayi 1.43 billion bat-rats
-rat problems
@@user-ki1bk5fi8b
The Rat baseball league certainly has enough Bat-Rats.
Having left the nano fabrication sector more than 8 years ago you video always fill me with a sense of sweet nostalgia for a work I was really passionate about.
Ciao from Italy :D
I was a yield engineer in the 1980s semiconductor industry at Texas Instruments. I moved yield from 30% to 80%, depending on the complexity of the chip. China's business is supported by the country at this stage of development. So, a lower yield will be OK for survival than private companies like TI in the US when they face the Japanese challenge in the 80s.
China is moving its vast capital from real estate to higher-tech, like green tech and semi. China used to spend more money on chips in the West than she paid for imported oil. Western chip money can't replace the missed business from China, especially in the long run.
Your technology talk is always clear every time.
agree
Absolutely, straight technical talk.
Like how she says there are a hundred thousand orders from a no source... 😂
@@danhtran6401 she is focused on the technical details. Stop throwing shade and go back to your hole.🕳️
@@fredfrond6148 she should focus on sources for credibility...
Once again great job. Thanks for video.
Wow that's amazing 😍🤩 Love From Nepal 🇳🇵🇳🇵
You are a phenomenal presenter
Love your videos and looking forward to future updates about the chip industry.
Super interesting: Such extraordinary developments, so clearly & excitingly described & chronicled & under pinning all of this is your love for the flora & fauna on our little blue dot in the cold darkness of space. Sometimes I despair of humanity, but you always make me feel that with people like you there is hope for our sinful species. Thank you for sharing!
You are totally a human being. I don't doubt it for a second
Yes, sheds more light on Blackwell because Cerebras is saying that there are problems that seem impossible for NVidia.
Yes please, a video explaining the trouble Nvidia is having making Blackwell would be much appreciated.
In Ireland 🇮🇪 data centres already consume 20% of the power
Wow, that's something! They sure need a lot of electricity to run this stuff.
21%
RISC-V or ARM anyone?
@@RickBeacham Arm is Risc lol. Look up what Arm means
@@thor.halsli Oh I forgot the -V.
Thanks for high lighting that. ;)
It may be an unpopular and increasingly dangerous view in the US, but I really want to see China succeed.
I do too, but I do understand why one might see AI as a critical military technology. But I hate all the random tariffs. And I still believe that the more economic development China sees the less authoritarian they become -- even if it's not as quick as many people want or a speedbump free road.
@@petergerdes1094the brevity in you comment is just beautiful. Only those that know exactly what to follow will agree with your point of view.
And here's what is being completely ignored. The global majority. Fort example. Embowale from Nigeria finished his degree. He wants to use AI cheaply to help his community. Does he buy a super expensive solution front Nvidia/Google? Or does he turn to a cheap and only slightly less powerful solution from China? The next 10 years is going to be revolutionary
So you like Chinese small sausages?
Unpopular inside US, outside everyone is tired of its imperialism
@@petergerdes1094 Well, I don't want to see an evil country succeed.
Can you please cover the Chinese chip more? I’m interested to know how they’re advancing so much
Of course she can't because there's not one product that has a Chinese chip... 😂
They are getting left behind. Still stuck debugging 7N to improve yields while TSMC is already working with 2N and has technology plans for 16A. That is 3 full process generations behind.
TSMC founder Zhang Yimou was born in Zhejiang, China, and is now an American immigrant. And TSMC's main shareholder is Wall Street. TSMC is an American company.
Chiplet and packaging may be the direction China is working on to advance performance (by allowing more flexibility in design). Regarding the yield, it costs more (the waffer), but the government can support by reducing e.g. tax for Huawei. Chinese engineers are also cheaper, compared to western engineers. On quantum computer, the world is at the beginning stage, so no one really has "first-mover advantage". Tsinghua University researches on particle accelerator to achieve what EUV can do. It may take years to come to market, but China's speed is knowingly an unbeatable advantage (read more: china two bombs one satellite). As backup solution, they can smuggle whatever western chips they like. Shell companies may be set up in 3rd countries to purchase US chips in bunch legally. PyTorch/Tensorflow can be more or less replaced with Mindspore (Huawei) or Paddlepaddle (Alibaba). The models, especially LLM, can be tailored toward specific purposes, such as LLM for healthcare, for education; thus, limiting the data demand needed to train; thus, no need for advanced chips. Doctors never care about relative theory, why should the LLM be fed with physic theory data? 😉 State-owned companies can be instructed to buy chips from Huawei to create revenues for Huawei... All those measures help buy time for China, until they can remove this chock point. Once for all. Another rarely known strategy is that China may put a lot resources on a specific corner, making it market competitive (cost, performance-wise); thus, convincing tech companies to use Chinese stuff in their supply chain. At some point, when this corner is dominated, China can use it to leverage against the US if the US escalates the war. (like: "any tech inheriting from this Chinese tech is not to be used in the US").
What is there to cover ? Do you see it in any product ?
The age of chips is a trip! TY
What doesn't kill you make you stronger
it is NOT a competition when only one side(U$A) can change rules.
Just like your classmate(U$A) use his family power coercing the stationary shop(ASML,Japan,..) NOT to sell stationary to you.
as long as you keep your favtories off limit to indians and vietnamese.
Make on tsmc struggles in making the Blackwell gpuss❤
Yes, but TSMC will make it and at volume.
Good luck in Huawei making any volume in this AI chip, it probably will need CCP financial backing to even be viable.
@@TheReferrer72so will have to
@@TheReferrer72 what are you talking about
ccp financial backing lmfao
huawei IS CCP
period
you fail at understanding the world
China has always been ahead of the entire world since ancient times.
In what way has China been ahead of the rest of the world in the last one hundred years? First to fly? First to the moon? First to develop computers? First to develop reusable rockets?
@@anderslindstrom8195 hehe landing on moon is the only achievement man kind achieved? Lol read some History dude lol
Yes, please; why is TSMC struggling with a new chip?
I'd be interested in seeing a video on why tsmc is struggling to make the chip you discussed.
Competition helps push and improve technology. Welcome!
China is a resilient nation. Despite all the international sanctions aimed at slowing its development, China is showing much faster progress than ever before.
Like how all the banks are filing bankruptcies and the house market is collapsing, graduates delivering food, and fighting in Putin's war. How successful do you have to be to die for Putin... 😂
@@danhtran6401 I heard that story every year and never becomes reality, sounds more as a wishful thinking.
But the reality told the opposite, is not Rusia, neither China who has economy problems here.
@@danhtran6401yeah yeah everything in China is "collapsing" lol. Meanwhile I'm living in China now and you're farting western nonsense
@@danhtran6401just remember where your DNA comes from, d+mn vietcong. It's from southwest China...
@@danhtran6401 how come one bank failing in China is like "omg all the banks in China are collapsing!" .. Meanwhile, 3 banks in ŰȘ collapsed but it's no big deal right?! Lol man get some ÎQ. Oh and BTW, the biggest bank in the world is a Chinese bank, ICBC😂
why TSMC is struggling manufacturing Blackwell GPUs?
Multipattering with DUV is what killed Intels manufacturing lead and let TSMC leapfrog them.
100% correct, but they are on the right path. Ow with the High NA EUV
To be honest people will always gladly choose 7nm over 4nm when it comes to patriotism, cost and Chinese name brand Huawei. Even for the international market it's a matter of marketing strategy at this point. The whole world wants China to succeed and over take US monopoly/hegemony. It's a moral dilemma rather than a technical one.
It's sad it has to go this way.. I really wish US would take a u turn and do the right thing
"The whole world."
Yeah, sure buddy.
Yes from Australia @@MrHav1k
@@MrHav1kYou are right. With part of the Americans as exception. Yes, I said "part of".
Comment to help the algorithm.
How much do you think that Ampere's story resembles the dilemma that the company Analog Devices faced back in the 1990's, when they started out as a prime mover of building Analog Integrated Circuits (along with Texas Instruments and many others), but early Digital tech was beginning to take over, putting them in an odd market squeeze? 🤔
Always impressively delivered information
Better than my university professor ❤🎉❤🎉
Re: Blackwell yield issues, I'd love to hear your thoughts on CoWoS and differing interposer approaches.
Wonderful video as always Anastasi. ^^
Just a little catch @6:50 it is Emerald Rapids on display.
Clearwater Forest has reached the fabs, but didn't made a public appearance yet to this day.
That's impressive progress by China!
beauty with brains.....subscribed ...
Yes please explain the Blackwell issues
A great informative video
TSMC uses Multi-patterning EUV as well as DUV. If SMIC is planning to go to 5nm, I wonder if they are planning to go to OctoMP. I would expect that SMIC will have serious yield issues. Earlier this year, I watched a video on performance testing of the latest and greatest Huawei cell phone with their most advanced mobile CPU. The video indicated that these phones had issues. These were atributed to SMIC's yield issues.
China is rapidly catching up with its advances in AI processors! As Intel continues to push the envelope in AI hardware, it's important to keep a watch on their advancements.
Yes. I would like to see a vid about why Nvidia order for tsmc is struggling for tsmc. Why Blackwell is so hard to develop? Bad question or good question
So the NVIDIA chip is not so functional?
@@emila6 No actually it turns out that blackwell has inference times that are 100,000 times faster than anything. THey just misread the "speedometer"
I always REALLY enjoy your videos, I have a tech background but never having paid much attention to chip vendors/capability you deliver and do so in a very sexy way :)
Sanctions on China .
China : hahahaha
Considering that all the power consumption from AI/crypto/rendering/web data centers ultimately ends up turning into heat, it's not as wasteful as it may seem. All that heat can be used to replace water and room heaters in homes and businesses, effectively resulting in no energy waste. With the current centralized approach it does require building the data centers in the middle of cities and connecting pipes to circulate the heat, but a better option it to replace the data centers with distributed computing nodes in each building and connect these to the existing water/heating system so that no new pipes are needed, just a good fiber optics link which is much cheaper to install and is going to be installed anyway sooner or later.
Explain how it is not a waste on summer, when you need less heat.
@@JorgetePanete You still need warm water for the kitchen, bathroom, laundry, and possibly even cooking (if there is a practical way to concentrate the heat, maybe using a special lens or reflector to focus the IR light radiating from a large heated surface?)
I love the AI and Planet Wild dual progress vision you have, it's beautiful to think a future where both can live in harmony might exist ;>
Discreet GPUs should be phased out because APUs are now capable enough. This could bring a lot of savings on power and would be great for the environment. But of course it's a different story for the AI chips, no matter how many environment we "save" it would still have an impact somewhere.
Yes, it would be interesting to hear about NVIDIA's struggles with their latest chip. This should help explain where the state of the art is. Presumably it's because of large die sizes, complex interposers, poor yield for the smallest process node or something. Cerebris patented ways to get around different thermal expansion rates in different materials; I wonder if NVIDIA will need something like this. Of course I'd rather wait for your next video than look up the real answer....
nvidia design is too close to thermal limit, it difficult to go higher with the same architectural. rather than pursuit way to stablised the thermal problem which may relief the problem fora generation, they should just change their architectural for better long term solution.
The presenter suggested to simplify the layout design to solve the low yield problem in China. But that will increase the chip size. May be that is okay, if it increases the yield.
Nice explanations
Please, keep going
the main reason U$A will never able to compete in Chip manufacturing.
All the country that do well in chip manufacturing , has Confucianism culture.
For chip manufacturing, a high level of discipline is the key, and most Americans today don't possess it.
They call it “forced labour"
Taiwanese media reported on August 2 that TSMC claimed the production holdup at its Arizona facility was caused by a shortage of trained American labour and that they had sent staff from Taiwan to assist with the factory's development. Labour union officials in Arizona, on the other hand, criticised TSMC for exploiting this as a justification to bring in "low-wage foreign labour."
They are developed in USA lol
"Labour union officials in Arizona, on the other hand, criticised TSMC for exploiting this...."
Tell me you've never been to the US, without telling me you've never been to the US
2024-8-14 TSMC’s U$. factory has yet to produce a single chip.
Cumulative investment in 4 years reached US$65 billion.
Japan TSMC started production , after 2 years setup
why you think the US has a twenty two trillion gdp. everything is hyperinflated.my cousin drives a garbbage truch in san jose,ca he makes 124k/year and he is a high scool drop out. my sister in law makes 88$/ hr at stanford .fine me another country that gives that amont of obscene wages!
I'm a huge fan of your work! Your videos are always packed with valuable insights, and your clear, easy-to-follow explanations make complex topics so accessible. It would be great to see you cover more companies from your portfolio or those you believe have strong growth potential in the semiconductor space. With your unique technical background, your insights would be incredibly valuable to your subscribers. Also, I'd love to hear your thoughts on NVIDIA’s future-where do you see the company heading in the next few years?
China 🇨🇳 is amazing 👏
Ampere and other companies have a tricky problem when their biggest customers are making their own hardware. I wonder if in- house design at hyper scalers will continue? Usually big companies outsource everything they can.
What I'm really interested is not whether China has solved their yields or EUV progress since those 2 will be eventually resolved over time with enough R&D resources thrown at it as China begins to create the missing supply chains. What I think is something that hasn't been spoken much about or at least on both the Media and Topic Specific Channels is whether China has started on an alternative to CUDA. CUDA is the reason why Nvidia has 90% market share and almost every single major or high perf LLM/AI effort is written around CUDA using Python/Pytorch/etc.
Without an ecosystem built around a CUDA alternative, the Huawei or any other "AI" chip that China may produce will most probably fail or have lots of interoperability issues when trying to interface with other platforms. This is the same thing with HarmonyOS, although Huawei did an excellent job promoting and building the HMS ecosystem, it is still missing interoperability either due to sanctions or the reluctance of non-Chinese apps to compile HMS versions so HMS really isn't a factor yet in the grand scheme of things even inside China.
My greatest concern is water. At the moment we are pumping billions of gallons of fresh water into chip manufacture.When/Where is the tipping point at which we decide that people having fresh water is less important than computer chips?
Also electricity
It's still possible to get abundance of fresh water by converting sea water using the reverse osmosis filtration system. The real question is cost as the process uses a lot of electricity and leaves a lot of by products such as sludge.
this is not a problem for countries that get hit by typhoons and has virtually no desert, rainwater is plenty and abundant.. the reality here is that people still die in floods, in 2024
Oh my..
You are so beautiful!! and informative, making complex things understandable❤
Yield problems affect just the price and if you sell an expensive product like the Apple M3 computer you can still make money. It is the cheap products that will suffer but they will never have top performance anyway. In addition, if the defects on the chip is just one or a few transistors you can design the structures with redundancies that can compensate. It is already done but maybe the Chinese will take it to another level.
Thanks for these update. It is incredible what China are achieving despite facing vicious sanctions and other methods we try to circumvent natural competition.
Great work as always! 👍 I would love to see a video about how the various CPU Architectures differ in their design (x64, AMD, ARM, RISC-V....). A big ask? Yes, but you would probably be the only person who could make it make sense to me.🤣 Take care. ❤
Be nice if you discussed AMD Zen design, AMD Radeon designs & perhaps intel CPU and GPU's.
If you are serious about conservation and protecting the planet and the ecosystem. Then it is absolutely essential to curb the Corporations, multi nationals, and the so-called governments who back them to the hilt. Even going so far as to excuse their rapacious behavior. Along with making it easier for the entities to behave badly by policies that place them ahead of all priorities. That is how we protect our world.
Hi @AnastasiInTech any forecast regarding Intel and analysis on current situation?
*THE ABSOLUTE BEST THING AM3RIC4 COULD DO FOR CHINA* was to restrict the supply of chips - OMG have they stepped up to the task, the speed of development is amazing.
Sure they might not be 1 for 1 yet - but the rate of development they will have surpassed the US [?] chips very soon
Among all chips i pick the edible ones 😂. Intresting video. Thanks a lot.
i like chinese shrimp chipsall natural ingredians no chemicals infested like in US.
You should look at Huawei Ascend 910c, not 910b which is superseded already. 910c competes directly with Nvidia H100 and H200, and in mass production in September
Tiny RISC-V with tensor module!
To a large extent this is a self-made problem for the US. Instead of attempting to block access to technology - the US could have used the last two decades to become more self-reliant and the world leader in IC design and most importantly local manufacturing.
China is fast catching up and will likely become the world leader in chip design and fabrication within ten years.
The dependence on Taiwan has become a single point of failure. The future of Apple, nVidia and other hardware-dependent companies looks increasingly fragile.
Yes Anastasia Will be interesting to analyze the GPU production bottleneck also because I see there are alternatives, at least for inference, with other chip architecture.
We want china to succeed
I love your content, just the facts that’s all.
Do a video on Tesla.
10 years ago...... The chinese phone will fall apart without even being touch.
Today......... Some considered it as the best.
OPPO has the best and longest battery life
i bought some dutch ovens from spotsmen warehouse(in minasota) the handles fell off the ovens at the first touch they didn''t even spot weld the handles talk about 5 th world workmenship pew!!!indian products,no one even touch them!!!!
On a general level, the questions for Chinese semiconductor should be :
1) how much of of the current vertical integration of chip manufacturing is a result of stolen tech/processes?
2) can China truly innovate from within without access to US and western tech? This applies both to the manufacturing of as well as application of semiconductors
3)Can the west replace china while innovating? Will it innovate quickly enough to overcome Chinese semiconductor manufacturing's vertical integration?
how many arses have you korean kissed.no body wanted to buy your snbpar nip copies(corollas) hundais 30 years ago biogot
From what I've read elsewhere, sanctions imposed by the USA is damaging western chip development by starving them of profits from their top customer, China. As for the less than perfect Chinese A.I chips, are they completely useless throwaways, or still viable in some lesser form?
Do you recommend a magazine or a book on this subject?
pls do a semiconductor 101 course i personally wanna learn this stuff and build a minimal/simple home lab for this stuff 😊.
@@ethical-not-evil google sam zeloof. this is not something you can just do.
Good luck with that - it is not a cheap business to get started with…
@@daveozip4326 yeah but once setup and designed perfectly it maybe cheaper to consume electronics. idk
China will fill the current need using the DUV, but it will be ineffective to go down the road of replication of EUV and packaging.
They are probably working on commercializing a new tech to disrupt the market and become leaders as we speak.
China is already leading in photonic chip R&D and the tech to mass produce them.
Current chip tech will be rendered obsolete.
@@adr2t look up their Taichi photonic chip. Thousands of times faster and more efficient than its Nvidia equivalent the H100.
They also already have a pilot production line for mass producing these chips operational in Shanghai since last year. The West is still on the drawing board. Not even close to mass production.
Yes they are developing SSMB lithography to produce 1nm chip
China could also easily ban trade of rare earth metals , the the US would be able to produce no chips at all..
Luckily for the US, China is not petty like the US...
If China really wanted to, China could easily, completely destroy Western manufacturing and their economies.
Yes it would hurt China too, but not as much as it would hurt the West..
@AnastasiaInTech : The biggest bottle neck for China is the lithography machines, and I believe all other troubles come from there. I indeed believe that they will not replicate EUV but come up with something different (better or just different). It would be great if you could cover this? What are they investing the lithography R&D money in?
Makes me wonder if chip company's are using AI technology to desighn more powerfull AI chips !
@@antonystringfellow5152 Are they, or is this just for PR. Intel, TSMC, have software with which you design what you want - Process Design Kits (PDKs). One throwaway comment I heard. "At the last conference, they were talking about how they are thinking about integrating AI in the design process." I'd like Anastasi to comment. I want to know if I'm wrong.
The future boss of Intel speaks.
Hi Anastasia.
Yes please do a video on TSMC struggle with some GPUs.
Also where are the Chinese GPUs being manufactured? Are they 5nm equivalent to other foundries 5nm?
Thanks
yes, tell us pls why its so difficult
Nice too see, and lower power consumption, cool
aside from producing the most advanced chip with the less NM, China is founding other innovative ways of getting the same performance with less. Look at the their latest 7nm, it's was able out perform most of the 5nm chips by qualcomm, apple and Samsung. Their 5nm should be able to match 3nm chips in the overalls performance
It should be interesting when China brings online their steady-state microbunching (SSMB) extreme-ultraviolet (EUV) light particle accelerator for chip manufacturing.
Make a video about why tsmc is struggling.
what comes after EUV
high-k (high NA) EUV
FUV
A fleeting belief in the continuation of Moore's Law.
Likely quantum computers, biological processors that are grown in a green house. Maybe a printer that prints out your own custom RISC processor?
*XYZ* 😂😂😂
Compared to China, the US has a very small population. This means that the effort of every person counts... but our young generations want to be rich influencers.
It's a direct response to hopelessness in the face of our current market adversity. Homes are 100 times over priced, and we're statistically underpaid. We have no engineers, and everyone is busy with politics.
Our country isnt focused, and exactly where China wants us.
Yes, i want to know why?
Does every chip maker do their own performance test, or is there a official version that all chip makers use that tracks the performance of them all?
Thanks for the overview. So many players developing AI chips. Everyone is fighting for their place in the economic market and data centers. I think this will bring innovations and new developments, but the fight will be hard and sometimes dirty. Everyone wants to dominate the market. Will that work? I have my doubts. Best wishes from Germany 😎. (translated with Google-Ai)
I think China shoud focus more on manufacturing lithography machines than producing chips because if SMIC has newest ASML machines they wouldn't have these problems but they don't have it and I don't see that's changing
they are using grafene base instead of silicon,by passing the litho machines
Even if SMIC’s yield is 99%, it’s still gonna say its yield is low just not to invite more unwanted attentions.
TSMC yes
China is super-fast development 🎉
Chinese developed a diamond chip that will spark a technological revolution
BS
@@lomotil3370it is planned for mass production
Already announced officially, means it is already in use
😂
Check with ...
National Academy of Sciences - US
Gallium Nitrite semiconductors with a diamond substrate. China now capable of industrial production. Other countries still at lab stage. China also produces 95% of artificial diamonds in the world.
The American keep encourage the Chinese to developing semiconductor just like Space station😂. They will regret in few years time.
Is it an advertisement for Ampere?
Indeed
What's your take on the Netherland limiting ASML's maintenance service to China's DUV machines?
Hi.. I am a mechanical engineer but very interested in chip design, so you can guide me for the next revolution career.