Been very very dry here in nw Illinois for 4 years. Most Iowa or Illinois precip has continued to miss this area last summer and even in November. Not a complaint. Great cattle weather with no mud…
What I love about forecasts is the correlation between weather and food! When you mentioned the freeze warning in Northern Florida it made me wonder what crops would be affected by this. So I had to look it up!
Historical patterns suggests your hypothesis is unlikely. Until MJO progresses into active 8 or 1, Positive PNA persist, even if a trough breaks through west coast ridge or under cuts it. PNA models are consistently wrong on this during weak or neutral ENSO periods.
wait - I think we are on the same page here. I don't think the positive PNA lasts either. I do think (as I mentioned in the previous videos) that the move to phase 8-1 will be difficult while the trades are strengthening right now. So a collapse into NULL is a possibility with the MJO. But the split flow in the west may start to break down and a few of the larger ridges in AK/BC could fold over given the rest of the US a different flow regime and increase the odds of ridging in the Southeast. Too many things not adding up together in this pattern.
No - but it does mean keeping sustained cold air across the east is more difficult. I think there are plenty of chances for cold air across the East this winter. Check out the video for Fri Dec 6 as I covered the new winter outlook from the ECMWF Long Range.
Eric - I would love to listen to your webinar Monday but have a conflict with a previous engagement. Will you have a recording to watch at a later time?
Eric- I thought the same about the Columbia basin based on the GOES images but we have a scientist in that territory in the tri cities area and claimed it wasn’t fog but said on the west of the cascades there was significant fog. So what is this mass in the Colombia basin? I am in Visalia and like to watch the tule fog on the ground and on satellite and it looked the same visually as whats up in the Columbia basin. What am I missing here?
It's a really shallow cloud layer. The fog is mainly in the valleys but across the whole basin, it is a dense, low-level cloud field. I mistakingly called it fog for the whole Columbia Basin.
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Been very very dry here in nw Illinois for 4 years. Most Iowa or Illinois precip has continued to miss this area last summer and even in November. Not a complaint. Great cattle weather with no mud…
What I love about forecasts is the correlation between weather and food! When you mentioned the freeze warning in Northern Florida it made me wonder what crops would be affected by this. So I had to look it up!
thanks for the update, I look forward to the webinar on the 9th!!!!!!
should be an interesting topic to discuss!
5" yesterday in East Texas.
WHOA!
Hey Eric, glad to find you again, I kept asking what happened to you and no one would answer me.
I'm here!
Eric SNODGRASS my friend LA NINA VERY WEAK OR ENSO NEUTRAL LA Nada this season. Winter outlook have changed. Happy holidays
Historical patterns suggests your hypothesis is unlikely. Until MJO progresses into active 8 or 1, Positive PNA persist, even if a trough breaks through west coast ridge or under cuts it. PNA models are consistently wrong on this during weak or neutral ENSO periods.
If you study all the models at 120 hours, you will see PNA positive transition is unlikely.
wait - I think we are on the same page here. I don't think the positive PNA lasts either. I do think (as I mentioned in the previous videos) that the move to phase 8-1 will be difficult while the trades are strengthening right now. So a collapse into NULL is a possibility with the MJO. But the split flow in the west may start to break down and a few of the larger ridges in AK/BC could fold over given the rest of the US a different flow regime and increase the odds of ridging in the Southeast. Too many things not adding up together in this pattern.
So just Cuase the PNA stays negative doesn’t mean cold air is impossible for the east coast does it?
No - but it does mean keeping sustained cold air across the east is more difficult. I think there are plenty of chances for cold air across the East this winter. Check out the video for Fri Dec 6 as I covered the new winter outlook from the ECMWF Long Range.
Eric - I would love to listen to your webinar Monday but have a conflict with a previous engagement. Will you have a recording to watch at a later time?
yes - that is the plan. If you register, you will be sent the recording.
@ConduitAg thank you! I will be sure to register!
Eric- I thought the same about the Columbia basin based on the GOES images but we have a scientist in that territory in the tri cities area and claimed it wasn’t fog but said on the west of the cascades there was significant fog. So what is this mass in the Colombia basin? I am in Visalia and like to watch the tule fog on the ground and on satellite and it looked the same visually as whats up in the Columbia basin. What am I missing here?
It's a really shallow cloud layer. The fog is mainly in the valleys but across the whole basin, it is a dense, low-level cloud field. I mistakingly called it fog for the whole Columbia Basin.
Eric do you think you could record it and upload it to youtube after?
We will record it and send it out to the participants who sign up.
@ 👍
More dry more drought. Wash rinse repeat. Never changes. Now next year could be worse..
Eric, where in comments is your 9th webinar?
us06web.zoom.us/webinar/register/WN_dIwZoBHeS1ScL7TjeHPMOg
You haven't missed much around the Syracuse area. This event is looking more and more like a dud.
Where I sign up?
There's a link in the description.