How Much Will Tesla Robotaxi Rides Cost?
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- เผยแพร่เมื่อ 15 มิ.ย. 2024
- What does a Tesla cost on a per mile basis. What will they cost in the future, and in a robotaxi world?
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#Tesla #robotaxi #costpermile - ยานยนต์และพาหนะ
What if the price of wiper fluid skyrockets....that will really screw with your math.
Why would a robotaxi need wiper fluid (or blades for that matter)?😂
Think your tire pricing is low. Just spent $750 to replace 2 tires on my M3. Replaced with the same tire that was delivered with my car
Yes
You aren't buying tires at wholesale prices. Plus the robotaxis can be optimized for the speeds and conditions they will experience, and tires are a component that can be greatly optimized if you know the car will never exceed, say, 65mph and will never need to handle snow and ice conditions, such as a robotaxi deployed to Ft Lauderdale, FL.
I would not be surprised if Tesla divides their larger robotaxis into 4 separate compartments to move multiple people to multiple destinations along a route simultaneously. This would work well if many people "subscribe" to their daily commutes. I believe utilizing that 4-passenger capacity regularly would often be possible. It would allow cheaper individual fairs if you chose the option to share a vehicle.
Thank you Warren. I always look forward to your videos
The 18 cents likely factors in cost of cleaning, inspection, maintenance associated with west and tear on the interior, people spilling coffee in the vehicles, and other issues associated with people riding in the vehicles who have no pride of ownership. And, as you mentioned, dead miles; miles driven without a passenger.
You forgot the cost of FSD, which is currently close to the cost of the $25k car and later on much higher, as Elon has said
Unless he is assuming that these are Tesla owned cars, in which case incremental cost of software is $0.
@@huskydogg7536 Sure, but the idea has been that normal users can become robotaxi fleet managers. Besides, the network's (Uber, Lyft, Tesla) has also been omitted
@@PetteriBergius Not denying that, only suggesting what Warren may be modelling here.
I mention the added cost of FSD late in the video.
If you want it and can swing it---get the FSD. However, I will not be paying 15K as long as I can drive myself.
One cost you left out is Cities imposing a Taxi tax or license or registration fee similar to the Taxi Medallion model in many major cities. I think they will jack the charge up to whatever the business can bear. This is fundamentally different than Uber because in that case the car owner is driving his personal car. So there is no precident for what can be legally imposed on a robotaxi.
Agreed. Localities will easily add at least $.02 a mile for taxes.
For $0.08 per mile, it will be commercially feasible to deliver Starbucks coffee at your doorstep.
There’s a theory that small flying drones will be faster and more cost effective
I take a taxi about once a month on a Saturday night ,on the south coast of England and i get charged between £6-10 for that mile as it is, so i would like to know if its going to be possible to charge pennies in the future?, As things are getting more expensive by the day - thanks
Brilliant analysis!
Calculating cost of service is a math exercise. I doubt the demand. Not selling the 25k car to consumers is a colossal mistake and makes me rethink my thesis.
I am watching from Japan, live here for good as a native European.
The figures wouldn't work over here. I drive 5.000 km/year by car.
The charging network is limited. Mostly no home charger. Installation cost is $25K, and half of this is reimbursed by government subsidy later. Destination chargers are mostly at shopping centers that charge parking fees (and a few hotels). Their charging speed is 3.5kw/h (older ones), and newer ones are at 7.5kw/h. Tesla destination charger could handle 11kw/h but old electricity lines only allow 7.5kw/h.
The network of Tesla Superchargers is growing fast. New ones are built to handle 250kw/h. But the majority is way, way below. At the moment for years to come, locations of superchargers are growing just in megacities and along significant freeways (Sendai-Tokyo-Osaka-Fukuoka). Backside Japan (west of the Japanese Alps) will be connected at a later stage (nobody knows when). An FSD? According to Tesla Japan, works only on Japanese toll-freeways. No estimate is given when the cities will be covered. Narrow roads in Japanese towns are too complex for the time being to be covered by FSD. And Robo Taxis? Still science fiction at current regulations...
The first Tesla I buy in a few years, not know. Tesla is a pure luxury item at double the total cost of comparable brands (ICD, EHV, BEV). Rumors here still say that for the next gigafactory, Japan is a hot candidate (battery makers are here, as well as qualified R&D and auto manufacturing engineers at low labor costs, and not to forget the right-hand steering hot spot in close proximity to Southeast Asia, Aus, and NZ). Tesla Japan is currently beefing up management and staff on all levels. Surely, something is cooking.
PS: Do you still consider moving over here for serious romantic dating? I guess, for you to find a matching lady, chances are much higher that you will successfully meet that goal and at a faster speed than a Tesla business model to work over here on a large scale.
Yes I might move there soon. Will visit in late May. Thinking Fukuoka for living.
The big question is WHEN not those other details.
Respectfully if any of us could see the future that person would be God/or trillionair ..so asking ‘WHEN’ is not a fair question right ?
@Sudeepta Ghosh When is the critical question that is being dodged by Dr know-it-all. Elon said fsd level five would be here 3 years ago.
@@juzefzoozoo 😎they(including Elon) also would like to be Gods but they are not .. and unfortunately we have to deal with it .. 🤷♂️
How now I look at .. 1. is it a inevitability to me yes it is 2. Is tesla is fore front : yes they are and they may be the only player
@Sudeepta Ghosh Scientists predict the future all the time. They are not God nor necessarily trillionairs, right?
@Sudeepta Ghosh if Elon takes too long, he won't be in the forefront. Technology brings humanity closer to being Godly. And yes, science is All about prediction the future.
How much pay riders for Waymo where available?
Tires $1000 a set minimum
Fair comment......Is it possible that Tesla can vertically integrate the tyre production...or do a deal with a tyre manufacturer to cut the cost of tyres?
@@thomasoneill7365 very possible!!
For a smaller compact non-performance vehicle tires are less. Probably not $200, but I just bought a new set for $440
@@ryangerrity2851 yeah new tires on my Corolla (better michellin) $575. Depends on the quality of tire tesla uses. Also, my rolla has 195/65/15 which is small, model 3 uses 235/40/19 which is a much pricer tire
You don't need high performance tires for a robo taxi. A cheap long lasting rubber compound would likely be used.
At say 90,000 per year, and maybe 40mph average speed, that's about 6.2 hours per day 365 days a year assuming everything is evenly spread out. That would allow plenty of time for slow charging per day, which would allow the better longevity of the battery pack. The slow charging does 40 miles per hour of charge I believe, so you could do robotaxi 12 hours per day, then slow charge 12 hours per day. With solar on your house it could basically be free fuel.
LFP longevity is fine in fast charging
I think I’d best keep my old Buick …
The cost to the passengers will be $0. The income for Tesla owners will also be $0.
Your 20k car will be 40k with fsd, also I don’t believe Tesla will ever sell a car for less than 30k.
Is Tesla removing the AM band from their radio? How much would they save by removing AM radio?
No idea
Good vid
Low view but high audience retention. Weird results
Classic @@WarrenRedlich finance DD & analysis will always retain viewers
When Honda and Toyota went upmarket they rebranded to Acura and Lexus. Will Tesla do same when going downmarket?
No
Also add in robot car wash cost
Too many off the chart speculations hurt tesla stock. Tesla will do well even the robotaxi does not happen. They have too many revenue streams. Patience will pay. Most of the “content” creaters feel obliged to say something everyday. Things don’t move that fast.
Yeah, but that sweet TH-cam revenue tho
One guy on youtube only supercharged his tesla (he lived in an apartment) and had to replace the battery ($8,000 I think it was) pack at 120,000 miles.
More like $16,000. My 3 was mostly supercharged and the pack is still good at 104K miles
Tesla needs to scrap the Fabergé egg and introduce a CYBER SUV
That’ll take time
@@WarrenRedlich sure, but the extra effort should be minimal and a more classic back should be way cheaper to make than that intricate tonneau cover.
Parts reuse with the Cybertruck would be north of 80%
Nothing tesla does is minimal effort
@@WarrenRedlich that sounds like critique 😂. I hope you would agree that it wouldn’t be something on the scale of Falcon Wing Doors ( still wonder what Elon was on when he decided that)
warren youre right, youre right about it all. but damnit if im not getting tired of waiting. when fsd finally launches i expect dramatic stock improvement. 2022 insulted me to my core, it was disgusting.
This is your best type of content IMO
I like it too. But view count is low for some reason.
I believe that Elon once Quoted,.71 cents per mile ! ?
Does anyone know how often tesla is doing releases on their fsd software? 2 week sprints?
Seems more like a month
model 3 price drop from 40k to 20k? how is that possible?
The price will be much lower than the 2020 robotaxi fares.
Charging(supercharging)will probably be much more, don't you think?
You might be right
How about if you work back the other way?
If a car can drive 1m miles, and only half of those are billable;
If charging $1 per driven mile, max revenue generated is $500k
$0.80cents per driven mile, $400k
$0.60 per driven mile, $300k
$0.40 = $200k
$0.20 = $100k
That revenue needs to cover initial purchase price (+ interest/fees if financed), FSD, charging, insurance, licencing, tyres, servicing/maintenance, cleaning, storage (ie garage or parked up overnight/when not in use), UBER style bottled water + mints, admin costs?
Am I wrong or does 25 cents per driven mile not sound anywhere near enough!
25 cents per mile makes sense if the vehicle is less expensive to build and operate
@@WarrenRedlich $125k total potential revenue for owning/operating a robotaxi for 1m miles...
I think this will only possibly make sense if more than 50% of the mileage is billable / it isn't driving around half the time for free in between jobs
The 25 cents/mile will be a less expensive vehicle to build and operate.
@@gzbg21 route optimization and an efficient dispatch system will be a requirement. I've long wished, as a long-time Apple investor, that apple would created these two pieces of the puzzle and make them available to any self-driving vehicle through CarPlay integration. That would allow Apple to take a small cut of every autonomous taxi ride while not owning any of the liability should the car crash; it's up to the vehicle, owned by Hertz or Uber or a future startup, to deal with the responsibility of driving, while integration with a master dispatch and route optimization service would allow it to participate in ride hailing. This way multiple robotaxi vendors could share the roads efficiently while offering the maximum availability to all consumers. Consumers would not need to pick Uber versus Hertz versus Tesla; they would simply hail a ride and the nearest available vehicle that has sufficient charge remaining to serve the ride would be assigned. The dispatch system would receive information on current charge status and location from each vehicle so that it could efficiently dispatch them and efficiently direct them to a depot for cleaning or a charging station for recharging.
Nice video. I think a couple of other things to consider are firstly operating costs for the robotaxi network. Uber is spending $14bn a year in operating costs, now maybe Tesla can make it more efficient but you still have to have customer services, legal, card fees etc.
Then yeah there's how much oversight is needed. Do the cars need remote overseers who help riders in distress or rescue stuck cars etc. Also where do robotaxis charge? Who plugs them in? There's also cleaning and maintenance of the interior of the vehicle. I think a big fleet operator who owns a lot of robotaxis would need their own facility, parking and maintainance workers to wash and clean them etc.
Basically you could take all the expenses of running a regular taxi company and just remove the driver salaries and that would give a pretty good estimate for what is required to support the network.
Tesla will probably use Dogecoin when robotaxi gets to scale
@@WarrenRedlich I think dogecoin is limited to 33 transactions per second and takes 1 minute to verify transactions. That's not really good enough for a large scale payment network.
Could use Algorand though, that would be awesome if they wanted a blockchain solution.
Warren steppin' it up with some graphics!
I did? 🤣🤣
Excellent and very informative thinking from a big thinker
Good analysis. Thanks for putting this together. Excited to see what the future holds with robotaxi. Hopefully we at least see the prototype by the end of 2024!
Big problem with your analysis: Cost of car is $40,000. Where is the cost for FSD? Currently $15,000!
I mention that in the video
I think it will be $100K
The concern I have about Tesla robotaxis is that they will lock out the middleman and take all the profit for themselves. For example, if I am an Uber driver who owns my own car and currently make money from driving people around, I would be out of a job because I am the middleman who will be eliminated and priced out of the market, because the income I am earning automatically defaults to the controller of the robotaxi network i.e. Tesla. Will Tesla cut me into a piece of the action for using my car as a robotaxi? Of course, they would have to or I wouldn't let them do that. Would I make as much money as by driving myself? Of course not, because then Tesla robotaxis would not be competitive against Uber. OK, so I could buy 5 Teslas and rent them all out as robotaxis, but what would be the ROI on that, given that I will be paying for the car repayments, the charging, the servicing, and I will have to spend time managing my robotaxi business. As a former taxi driver, I used to take home roughly half of the taxi fare, minus taxes and fuel costs. As the owner of a Tesla robotaxi, what kind of a percentage of the rideshare fee is Tesla going to pay me? Then we have to wonder what kind of relationship Tesla will get into with the existing rideshare networks like Uber, who control a large share of the rideshare market? Will Tesla just try to wipe them out by pricing them off the roads, much as they are doing to the automotive industry? Or will they cut some kind of deal with Uber to supply them with Tesla robotaxis and let them take a cut, in return for managing the servicing and administration of the robotaxi vehicles? Nothing is going to be simple about any of this, and I just see a lot of people being laid off. The only thing I can see is that my current business as an Uber Eats driver is probably not going to be affected so much, unless Tesla is going to sit a Tesla Bot in the seat of the robotaxi so it can run into the restaurant, pick up the pizza, and then run the pizza to the customer at the other end. That's a whole other conversation to be had...
I think Tesla plans to include our vehicles along with tesla owned vehicles. It will be many years before there are enough robotaxis built.
i can answer for you, robotaxi is PR bull shit, it wont be a thing. Tesla is not making an AI that can drive because they wont take any responsibility for any wrong doing.
Their AI driving automatically turned off seconds before a crash to blame it on the driver is such a funny thing
😂 RoboTaxi. 😂😂😂😂 LOL. More like RoboScam!!
Tire cost is your only maintenence? 😂
You really expecting to drive 1 million miles without spending a penny on maintenance?
What a joke- people believe the robot taxi is a thing? What will insurance be like for running a taxi that drives itself? Which BTW they are so far behind any kind of autonomous driving its hilarious people still believe this is a thing.
And if its going to earn you 30k in fantasy land, everyone would buy one for that kind of return! 30k a year! lol
I like the idea of your project. It's gonna help poorer countries tremendously. I hope you can make it happen. I also hope you can meet Elon in person and get his take on your idea. He's definitely got a lot of insight.
Does anybody realize this robo taxi is never going to happen?
noway u are still thinking this? He said YEARS AGO buy a tesla 25k make 30k a year??????????? ITS NOT HAPPENING delusional its scary at this point
You don't need to worry about the Tesla RoboTaxi - it will never happen - ever.
FSD was designed from the ground up based on AI principles and not navigation principles
a major mistake as Elon listened to the siren song of "AI is the answer to everything"
FSD will never reach Level 4 autonomous driving where you watch a movie while the car drives you to work. Level 5 requires no steering wheel nor driver - it drives itself and can get out of any trouble it should ever find itself in - that isn't even a wild dream of FSD.
So other systems will easily get to Level 5 and true robotaxies but not Teslas....
Other systems? Ok boomer
@@WarrenRedlich Sure - the ones now using fenced-in areas will easily get to Level 5 and they will add more areas quickly.
Elon took the approach that every inch the Tesla drives is brand new - it's never ever seen it before - that's because the old technology of neural networks (80 years old now) has no memory it only IDs things that 100,000 images have been shown to it.
Elon is at a point where he probably will declare FSD a "success" when it is 90% accurate and of course that won't stand up in any court of law.
FSD is hopelessly down the wrong rabbit hole and can't back out.
Your "No Left Turns" name is accurate fo the systems based on geo-fenced maps and LIDAR buecause those systems will often make 3 right turns instead of a left turn; just not smart enough.
@@jimdetry9420 Left turns are 10X more dangerous than right turns - something that Elon's FSD is too stupid to keep track of.
A REAL self-driving system would grade each turn - all turns and assign a safety score to it. In fact, it should tap into state highway systems and insurance systems to get even more safety information.
So if the driving system detects many occupants in the car, meaning there is a lot more mass in the car, it should take a safer route and avoid left-hand turns even more. Elon's stupid FSD has none of this and safety is something the AI geeks have yet to think about.
@@noleftturns Name one accident Tesla's FSD has had making a left turn.
No worries. There never ever will be a robotaxi. Elon is promising full self driving almost a decade and it is not even close. 😆
These prices are ridiculous. Uber charges between 1 and 2 dollars per mile in the US and they keep 25 percent. So Uber keeps between 25 and 50 cents per mile and they normally loose money while the driver pays all the car expenses. If there is a fleet of cars owned by Tesla or whoever Tesla needs to charge at least what Uber charges just to manage the software. This would not leave a lot of profit for Tesla. Then there are the fleet costs of buying the cars, insuring the cars, repairing the cars, storing the cars when not in use. What happens in blizzards, etc, etc, etc,. In the end in a perfect world if it ever happens the price might be slightly lower than Uber but not by much. If the price was that low then people would stop taking buses and cities would be unlivable traffic jams. There are going to be special taxes put on robotaxis to limit their numbers. Warren's fantasy of virtually free instant rides with no traffic jams while everybody gets rich is not going to happen. None of it makes any sense.
Uber hasn’t scaled like robotaxi will scale
1st
Come on man , this is the 100th time you make cost assumptions about robotaxi . Every time we are " close " to robotaxi. Please shut up until the technology is there
SAVAGE, lmao. Tru tho
The tech is close enough
I’m not saying this is dead on. It’s in the ballpark
When will the Tesla Robotaxi come out?? For sure Elon is a snake oil salesman!!
Warren might be right---but I would not recommend you buy Tesla stock banking on a sea of robotaxis.
When is Tesla stock going to 100k?
Not looking forward to that day because I like being above ground.
@@huskydogg7536 😂
100K post split would be 2030s if ever