Ep. 129 - Hit Probability
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- เผยแพร่เมื่อ 29 พ.ค. 2024
- On this episode, Seth is joined by Jayden for another episode of Quinlan's Corner. This show dissects the five contributing factors as to why a bullet goes where it goes in a long range shot. The guys discuss how the variables at play can compound each other. By knowing and understanding the five factors, the shooter can start to establish their hit probability for a given target. The foundation has been laid for this with episodes 29, 31, 34, 44, 50, 52, and 57. We hope you enjoy this highly educational episode.
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“You’re groups are too small” should be on the shirt for sure
I would buy a couple of them for Hornaday haters I know.
And on the back should be "Your groups are still too small
This episode finally gets around to what I have argued and discussed with people for years. The accumulation of all the “stuff” that affects the path of the projectile! It would be awesome if that “Hit Probability” could be an add on in 4DOF with the group analysis feature; determine your cone of fire, distance, add target size and it could give a percentage of hit probability!?!? Anyone else like that idea?
🤷♂️ Because It is Still the Shooter Behind the Gun That Determines the Actual "Hit Outcome/ Success" (A Changing Variable That Can Also Be Measured), What About Tracking The Shooters Actual Outcome/Progress (Shooting Tendancies) and Comparing It to The "Theoretical Maximum Hit Probabilities"? This Would Help The Shooter Understand Their "Shooting Tendancies" and Where They Need To Improve! Is Their Problem Reading Wind or is "It" a Tendance to Flinch in a Certain Direction and What Does Their Gun Do On a Cold Bore Shot (Good Information For Hunting Purposes - Between a First and Second Shot)? 🤔
@@ronlowney4700 that’s why it would be linked to a Group Analysis profile you created for your rifle, shoot it like you use it, Group Analysis the shots with “the nut behind the bolt” enter your ES and SD’s at a given temperature. The powder burn rate temperature sensitivity is already there. Give the distance and target size it and a good computer program will be able to give a theoretical hit probability. I know wind is a variable, good data in, good data out!
Shirt idea: Seth's head (Bill Murray style) with the quote "the nut behind the bolt" 😅
A "Your groups are too small" t-shirt with Quinlan's Corner(QC) and the Hornady logo ? Take my money. I want at least two and a couple ball caps too.
You guys at Hornady are awesome
I would definitely buy a Quinlan's Corner T-shirt and bumper sticker. 😂👍
"Smart drunk uncle," Quinlan's corner hats and shirts
You guys should do "Quinlan's Corner" with a radar motif, "Miles Mode" with a rifle and a slide rule crossed like a coat of arms, "Slick Seth" with a guy shooting at a tornado and declaring "Wind? Never heard of her!", just to start. You could come up with a limited run for every employee you've had on the podcast and let them each pick their favorite charity from a Hornady-approved list to put proceeds toward.
I do think you guys give the best pod cast about fire arm and hunting, All involved
I really appreciate everything about the Podcasts; and yes I prefer the technical information most. From what I have found; there is no other manufacturer, willing to provide the in depth content that you guys are providing. There are other resources available for further learning, but Hornady is doing the best job of showing a comprehensive investment in the community and of course their customers.
And hell Yeah ‼️ The T-shirt, Hat, Decal idea is a winner 🏆
Yes for the Quinlan's Corner T-shirt! Hat too
I wish you would publish a article/white paper when you do a more technical matter, with some target results depicting in more detail on what you are doing and how you are doing the testing along with the results.
Yes, get the T-shirt!!! Got to include the glorious beard!!!
The beard is glorious, yet the man himself doesn't want to be depicted on it so let's respect that!
Great podcast, Seth and Jayden!
Well, yes we need a t shirt!! Great show and always enjoy the podcast. I also love the ARC developement info.
Shirt idea: example of dispersion and hit probability on target with calculated average radius….
Better T-shirt idea
“#InMilesWeTrust” with a mustache somewhere.
I enjoy all the pod casts, but I especially like the episode on the topics of hit probability and dispersion. Have you ever considered compiling the information you cover into a book? Having heard about Jeff Siewert’s book Ammunition Demystified on your podcast I purchased it and have started reading, it’s very interesting. I feel a book from Hornady based on the 5 or 6 episodes on the above topic would be a great companion piece.
Always good to hear from these analytical minded shooters.
Slightly off topic comment Random pattern size greater than a single hole whereas the pattern itself is not perfectly repeatable would constitute random error. Shot pattern scatter is beneficial in a shotgun load but rarely so in rifle and pistol shooting where the random error is difficult at best to correct.
In a properly functioning firearm having an acceptable chamber and barrel bore; the cartridge and projectile will tilt about the center of gravity and will be offset from the bore centerline. Additionally, other mechanisms such as ejectors, extractors, and breech faces are additive in nature within many firearm designs and tolerances.
The sum will equate too the total angle of the projectile in relation to bore centerline and likely will result in the exiting projectile having a cross velocity which in turn equates to a variability in both magnitude and direction. The initial projectile flight will begin with random variance relative to horizontal, vertical, or both thus resulting in the error dispersion.
In many hunting rifle and cartridge designs the top priority is function. Conversely, in a laboratory type environment the priority may present with the goal of complete elimination of these variables ( Excellent capability to refine cartridges, bullets, loadings,etc.). Generally, most people will be somewhere between these extremes. As a pup I learned that precision match grade rifle actions are absolutely lousy in the field - the real world. The very quickly foul due to environmental and combustion conditions which tends to degrade the design (tight tolerances) itself. Where are you?
🤔
I suggest, "In Quinlan, We Trust."
Yes, I would absolutely love to have a Quinlan‘s corner T-shirt and some stickers, especially team Hornady stickers don’t have many of those. This is the best podcast I have ever listened to you or watched. I hope y’all keep them coming. I’m a huge fan of the podcast and very loyal customer of Hornady, thank you so much Brian Cheek
Noted!
Enjoyed meeting a bunch of you guys at the NRA convention
Could you guys do a podcast on shotgun reloading, and pattern testing? I’ve just gotten into that world and after patterning some of your buckshot (thanks for using nickel plated!) I immediately thought of asking you about how you guys go about loading your shells.
I really like the technical podcasts and appreciate Jayden's measured discussions backed up by a lot of lab work. Have learned more about the mechanics of rifle shooting since Episode 24 than in all of my experience. I understand his reluctance to be a public figure, but I really appreciate that he does these podcasts.
I haven't been able to figure a way to calculate the effect of bullet drag variation on point of impact. Could Jayden provide some way to calculate it for other calibers like 308 Win? Thanks.
Really enjoy your podcast. Quinlan shirt would be great
Thank you Gentlemen! 2nd time thru this podcast and took as much notes as I could, and It all makes sense!! thank you for taking the time to do this, really sheds lights on "chasing your tail in the noise"!!
Glad you enjoyed it!
T-shirt and hat would be awesome! I'd buy 2 of each
Agree with Quinlan T-shirt and cap.
Yes, we need Quinlan's corner hats and shirts in the Hornady accessory catalog
F$ck yeah Quinlan is the man!!!
Here's one for you J.
When I'm riding my sport bike at 50 mph, in a 10mph cross wind, I can sit straight up and not experience a great influence on flight path (center of the lane) "low velocity high drag, less variability"; as compared to let's say 150mph in the tucked riding position, where cross wind is much more impactful, "high velocity low drag greater variability" and if I increase velocity to 175mph, the influence of the cross wind is even more pronounced; and would certainly result in chaos if I tried to sit up straight (high drag) vs being tucked in. Does that make sense for an analogy? It's definitely something you can experience!
Make sure they're available in Canada and I am down for a hat/T-shirt.
Love the content!
Quinlan's Corner T-shirt, but only is it has his face on it too. Doesn't have to be a photo, can be artistic like the Bill Murry shirt, but his face has to be on it in some capacity.
I keep watching this one. It's awesome ‼️ 👍
Glad you enjoy it!
@@hornady The more I gather from you guys; I'm reminded of the adage, "I'd rather be lucky, than good any day"😂
I think Seth has even said it on a podcast 🤣🤙
Great podcast, listened to it twice...used the info at the last match.
Great to hear!
Long time of flight reminds me of the time we were night firing the 8" Howitzers under illum rounds. We had approximately the same time of flight as the Mark Best Time for illumination. We called for the illum to be fired and seconds later fired the 8" high angle. About 15 seconds into the 65 second flight, we here the illum battery come on the radio and ask if we had traffic for that station. Pregnant pause from Hell followed by "did you fire?".........No. now we had 30 some seconds to ponder where our high angle shot was going to land! Luckily, there was another battery firing and their illum was good enough to see our splash. Talk about a pucker factor.
I was watching a podcast from Jan 25, 2024 and Seth had a silver yeti type cup and now at the end of May he's sporting a Hornady yeti style cup!👍
I’d totally wear a JQ approved shirt. Maybe with “I’m goin back to my cave on the back
Yeah I’d buy one of them t shirts.
excellent again
Thank you! Cheers!
I have been thinking more of a natural dispersion donut, with the mean radius as the apex of the dispersion. The biggest thing I need to figure out too is what the sigma is of my dispersion. It would take a lot to figure out but could be cool to have.
I’ll buy a shirt if y’all put it out. That would be awesome.
Id love a Quinlan's Corner shirt and possibly a hoodie too
As a fellow person that likes to be in my cave i would put a quinlins corner decal on my car for sure.
Yes please for T-shirts 🙏
Can Normandy please address why 4DOF will not load on my iPhone. I have contacted customer support and they have failed to get back. I'd like to use the app but it simply will not load.
Same
T-Shirt idea:
Front of the shirt: standard hornady logo on upper right
Back of the shirt: Jayden’s head silhouette of just his baseball cap and beard. Caption: “QC”
Oh, a sticker too. I'm down for having that on my car
I don't buy a ton of merch, but I would absolutely buy a Quinlan's Corner t-shirt, or even better a long sleeved hoodie sun shirt. I'll buy 2 if JQ's handsome, bearded face is on them. 😂
Quintana corner with a pick of my drunk uncle at a professors podium or some type of character made up to represent Mr Q!
Manson reamers wants some gear!!
“Your groups are too small” with big beard & ball cap. Put me down for one.
I need a shirt with the beard on it! Or maybe a steve-o type shirt!
It's been a while since I read Mr. Siwert's book, so I will ask the question, is this what he referred to as Error Bugdet?
Error budget is the components that go into determining the hit probability.
Please please go into detail on subsonic ammunition. I still don’t understand why it’s less accurate than supersonic rounds.
Question: does using different manufaturer cases , make a difference when loading the same load ?
Please do an in depth analysis of loading SUBSONIC ammo.
I have seen people using H100 to make Creedmoor Subsonic rounds and that feels unsafe in my mind.
I recently started weighing my projectiles. I was having strange inconsistent grouping. I have found some bullets to have a .1 or .2 variance. The 178 eldx has some as low as 177.1 and high as 178.5. I used 2 separate scales. So if I shot once @ 177.1, next shot 178.5. At 300 yard plus this would create quite a ballistic change. My 212 eldx weighed within .1 gr for 25 projectiles. What is your spec and results in testing.
Is a Cliff Notes version of this video available?
I would like to see the results and standards of accuracy testing of your bullets. No top competitors that I am aware of in f-class shoot red box bullets.
My husband definitely would buy a shirt and sticker!
Love that!
Can you do a talk on the claims you can't shoot monolithic after shooting jacketed bullets? Makes no sense to me because they are both copper fouling. Why would mono bullets shoot worse after shooting jacketed lead?
Hey mate, I load ssts and ttsx for my 308. I've noticed in my own rifle that after shooting cup and cores, my ttsx groups open up from .4-.5" to 1.5-2", unless I clean the bore. I believe it's to do with the gilding jacket of cup and cores being softer than the copper in monolithics.
Any chance you can reupload Episode 29: External Ballistics Part 1 to Spotify? 1-29 are missing. Thanks!
Looking in to this issue
Should have it fixed now
@@hornady Yessir it's fixed. Going through the 7 episodes you listed for hit probability homework. I appreciate it, thanks.
I could use some hornady swag
I want a tee
I want a t shirts 3x tall please.
Shirt sure, but a hat..........
If you'll ship them to the UK I'd definitely go for a Quinlan's Corner T!
And with all due respect, also love the "Smart drunk uncle" idea from @markmiller9894.
Easy answer, zero in a tunnel range 😉
The closest one to me is about 400 miles. I think not. I have free shooting ranges one to 610 yards the other to 1200 plus (there are 1500 and 1800 yard targets for fun shooting). Yes, environmental factors are there, but usually early mornings in Northern Nevada. On a non stormy day, the wind is 5-6 mph or less and shooting is good.
29.25 WROOONG! The atmosphere doesn't "magnify" the sun
or the moon when they're close to the horizon lol.... only in
your minds eye young fella...
Yes for the Quinlan's Corner T-shirt! Hat too