remember: prediction is fine, but positioning is all! replay: replay.pokemonshowdown.com/smogtours-ou-169219 music: th-cam.com/video/LuEC2YKBLoQv/w-d-xo.html
i generally tell my newer friends: • find your threats • find their barriers to your threats • find their threats • find your barriers to their threats and even on that simple of a level the game makes a lot more sense
@The OG Knocking boots/leftovers/black sludge on a defensive mon is the only way to beat some of these stall teams. I think boots in particular have made knock off an even more important move
@@bigmonke3348 both the boost and the L of being crippled by losing the important item. Removing the good unknockable items made Knock even more spammable, and it already was one of the best physical moves around
I had a BW UU tournament game where not predicting won it for me. I had a Zapdos with rocks up, my opponent had a spinning Blastoise with a Rhyperior in the back. I was able to position my Zapdos in on his Blastoise every time. I clicked Thunderbolt, he switched to Rhyperior. The next two times, I once again pivoted in my Zapdos on his Blastoise and thunderbolted into the Rhyperior switch. Now, on the fourth time, he thought I would predict and no longer thunderbolt as I was thudding into a ground type every time, and he stayed in with his Blastoise to spin - I clicked tbolt once again and killed it. He got impatient and tried to predict me, but I had no interest in predicting - I considered clicking thunderbolt to be a spinblock. I would've clicked thunderbolt 16 times if he kept making that double, because I had rocks up and knew it was chipping him badly, and I wanted to prevent rapid spin at costs. READERS, YOU DON'T NEED TO PREDICT EVEN IF YOUR ATTACKS ARE DOING NO DAMAGE - STICK TO YOUR GAMEPLAN! A SOLID PLAN WILL ALWAYS WIN LONG-TERM! TRYING TO OUTPLAY YOUR OPPONENT WITH A RISKY PREDICTION WILL LOSE YOU THE GAME!
It depends totally on the situation. You could keeping Tbolting a Rhyperior because you certainly had a good Rhyperior answer in the back. Your opponent also probably knew that the continuous chip SR damage would put its Blastoise in a range for you to kill it even with HP Ice. What is important actually is to be able to see situations where you could have troubles based on your decision, so your ability to foresee turns over your opponent and the game overall, seeking for a win condition, is the main factor in my opinion.
When you gave the 6 heatran scarf chomp example it gave me a reminder to an adv example of this concept. When I use a team that has a lead hariyama I always have the name “I will knock off” because most of the time I will, unless they lead something like mence
as someone who has been top 10 on the current ou ladder many times, this is IMO why so many people get hardstuck in the 1600s range and why i find it to be the most frustrating part of the ladder to play through. players in that elo think that prediction is everything and are way more focused on 'winning' individual turns by predicting correctly than on winning the game as a whole.
I remember this DPP warstory on Smogon where one player just completely and utterly outplayed the other in the prediction game, using his Lefties Gengar to make incredibly ballsy plays with double-switching and Subs to wipe half of the other guy's team. And yet somehow the other player managed to play around it and wound up sweeping the other team entirely using Choice Band Azumarill and its Aqua Jet spam. The other guy was one move ahead the whole game, but failed to preserve his physically bulky checks, even blowing up his Metagross on a Celebi that was no threat to the rest of his team.
@@LuizOMenudo Unfortunately I don't have one, but you can find the warstory in Smogon's warstory archive, entitled Predicting Over and Under. One of the commenters even said the predicting player should be playing the lottery instead of Pokemon.
@@whydoiexist2180 Honestly I find that style of play very prevalent with mid-ladder players. It's precisely what BKC is talking about. They feel like they're winning in the moment because they get the turns right, failing to realise that I'm letting them get the predicts in because I'm focused on long term positioning, in this case weakening the Azumarill checks
Damn the players that think staying in on EQ with trapper Tran to get Lando Toxic'd thinking the Lando will Stealth Rock are going to be in for a rude awakening with this video.
no joke i remember the balloon tran vs lando I days in gen 8. if they go for earth power/sludge wave, then you got a free turn. if they go for focus blast, rip. made for some hilarious 50/50’s.
still, there is no "greater" feeling than getting screwed on using a status move on a choice-locked pokemon (like scarf thunder wave) against a pokemon staying in that had zero business staying in (because it can neither survive your attack nor threaten you back) but can threaten literally everything except for the pokemon you currently have out .... but then again ... I was using a specs heatran with stealth rock in that game .... I guess, the jokes ARE still on me :D
It's like in poker - if you start to think "I know that he knows that I know that he knows..." to make a play, it never ends, so whatever you do really becomes a toss-up. Better to think in terms of covering most options, having the most reward with less risk, etc, within a mixed strategy. It's like when people say "mind games" in fight games etc too
I think this is true in a certain respect, but by always choosing the "best option" your play becomes very brittle and predictable. "This option is the best option. I will win 60% of the time when I choose this. Therefore I will choose it every time."... as an attitude might win you 60% of games, but what happens when you're playing a game you can't afford to lose? When a 40% chance of losing is unacceptable? If all you do is pick the "best" strategy every time, you're playing no better than a computer and you'll lose like a computer. On the other hand, if the stakes aren't high, there's no reason to be afraid of failure. Failure is the catalyst of growth. Try out something newー something that isn't "the best option", and you may discover that your understanding of the game changes, and so do you as a player. The truth is, there is no "best option". There are safe options and risky options, but trying to be as safe as possible all the time carries risk of it's own. If there was a best option, everyone would bring the same team of Pokémon to every tournament and every fighting game player would play the same character. As silly as it sounds, I recommend picking "bad" options from time to time, if for no other reason than the power of surprise. When you do something unexpected, you take control of the momentum of the game. You do have to get enough value from that momentum to justify the difference in the value of the options, but if you can unseat your opponent from their comfort zone you're often already there.
One interesting part of the "there is no 50-50" is how that becomes more true the earlier in the game you adopt that mentality, because thinking like that tends to give you more endgame situations where safe options are possible then the ones where it is actually just a prediction, as both players will have few enough options for that to really happen
the saying is that there is no "TRUE" 50-50. Sometimes you have to take chances like needing to hit a Zapdos thunder on that weakened Snorlax to kill it before it can use rest. But those situations are not actually a 50% chance (or 70% in the case of thunder) to win. Because there is so many things surrounding that one turn: one of the players will benefit more from winning the "50-50" than the other will. Bringing yourself into a situation, where even losing such a "50-50" still leaves you in a good spot, THATS what competetive pokemon is about. But I fully agree. The earlier one adopts that mentality, the better.
God, I needed this video. I predict way too much, I know and accept this and it's something I need to change, and the line "My opponent was too bad for me to beat" is something I'm guilty of wayyyyy too much for way too long.
One thing that's helped me is the idea of "what is my wincon? What do I need to do to be able to realize that?" I started on generation 5 and stuff like dragmag and mega charizard y offense really helped me learn how to get into a position that is good For example, in yard teams a lot of the time they have a weak check to yard like latios, so the 2 questions were "can I get my ttar in vs their latios" or "can my charizard come in safely 3 times so i can fire blast lati a bunch". Either way, I could win by getting to those positions (with or without predictions). You wanna play to your wincons, not play to try to beat out the opponent at every turn
before making a prediction, always ask your self two things: 1. "do I need to predict here?" and 2. "does getting the prediction wrong hurt me in the long run?". Based on the answers to these questions, it is usually much easier to decide what to do in that situation.
this is something people need to know about video games in general. predictions only happen with ample game knowledge, but unless you're competing at the top level game knowledge alone is more than enough to win in almost every situation.
Good video. One other thing that could be mentioned is that PokeTube in general over-emphasizes predictions because the cases in which they have an extreme reward for unjustifiably risky plays make for more exciting content. Effectively it is a metagame where players optimize for the most views/subs over the most wins, and while these things do coincide to a large degree, there is a conflict between them here that is more subtle than just running 'heat' mons/sets that are a clear handicap. And since the large PokeTubers are very good players in general and clearly influential, there is likely some effect in excessively promoting high risk/reward predictions in the 'real' metagame.
Love how you always find the most obvious/day to day topics in Pokémon and make them something special and well thought. This video was necessary and extremely didactic for newer players. Great job Kev, keep it up
The absolute gigachad move is predicting the predict. When you have Heatran and the opponent has Landorus, your opponent is going to predict that you switch to your Corviknight. Instead, you leave the Heatran in and click Stealth Rock, making Heatran take the U-turn. And then it burns it because you were using Flame Body heatran the whole time.
Just want to say watching this helped immensely. I like offensive teams, but I thought that you had to go for ballsy predictions or else you'd get walled. What actually matters is building a team with a real game plan and executing that plan, rather than loading up on sweepers and trying to predict. Thank you bkc
You know, this doesn’t really have to do with the topic, but this replay would definitely show how people underestimate defensive Terastallizing in upcoming SV. Device could pack on a Dark type resist without changing his team. Now Hydreigon has to suddenly deal with Fairy type Slowbro or Fighting type Thundurus with also Focus Blast.
I find it funny that playing Smash Bros actually made me realize the whole risk/ reward dynamic and looking for safe plays which can then be reapplied to Pokemon. When you're good at predicting you end up over-relying on it and it's a bad habit to undo.
I haven't watched the video yet, but usually I get push back when I say this. I don't like when youtubers keep their 4x weak mon, it dies, and then they go "What a moron!" after they already made 4 aggressive plays that game
If you’re put in a position where you have to predict it’s because you made a mistake so most time you’re better on making mid grounds because making a mid ground will get you more out the turn than a bad prediction. That being said, fire blast the heatran on a predicted ferrothorn switch to assert dominance does give you so much momentum both in the physical and mental part of the game.
This goes for every mental sport. There is a phrase that sums it up perfecty. "You are never going to beat someone at chess if they only play checkers". Basically, don't try to complicate things for yourself, before any serious mindgames happen, you have to know how to beat someone at their own game. I think many people reading this know the feeling of "how did this person beat me? I can beat better players but this guy is just too random", when in reality, high level strategies just don't work on low level.
As someone who has peaked #1 multiple times in ou, I can tell you that you are wrong about high level strategies losing to low level strategies. As the video posits, it’s all about positioning and keeping the long game in mind. For you to often lose to low level strategies with your “high level” strategy, it’s clear your strategy is not actually high level.
I think another very helpful way of thinking is in terms of "win conditions". You should always be making moves that bring you closer to your win condition. For example, in Gen 2 OU I play a team built around Marowak. *Usually* my win condition is: get Marowak out on the field with a Swords Dance, after first making sure anything that can outspeed it is either paralyzed or dead. So I'm always thinking along the lines of, "Does my opponent have any Marowak checks left? Are they crippled enough that Marowak can deal with them? What can I do to get closer to my ideal situation?" And I use that sort of flow chart mentality to inform my decision making. You can even take it a step further and think, "What is my *opponent's* win condition? How can I avoid letting them set that condition up? Which of my mons are critical to blocking their win condition?"
I have seen the AI switch a few times: it’s usually only when they have no moves that can even damage you (your Pokémon is immune to their move) but yeah they almost never switch
in more recent games the ai will sometimes switch if they have an imunity to the move your using in the back but thats really the only aplicable switch scenario I can think of
@@critaquil5011 more specifically, if they have an ability that makes them immune to the move that was last used on the pokemon that switches out. By the way, the AI even does that if the attacker has the ability mold breaker, lol.
@@critaquil5011 I can only talk about gen 6 because this is where I did all my battle maison challenges, but in that gen, it is specifically if the immunity comes from an ability, not if the immunity is due to typing.
Regarding the 6 Heatran examples, I feel that this is the primary reason something like Scald is so powerful, predictable, but does lots of damage and can potentially burn 90% of ‘mons.
I know like what were they doing with making scald, the fire types immune to burn are weak to the move, and Guts users usually aren't that great special defensively.
I would like to see a physical attacker with great special defense and Guts and Facade and it is also Water type and has a wide movepool. It would be the ultimate scald counter. Grass types are attacked by a stray Ice coverage move, and that’s it.
This, omg, THIS!!! Positioning is everything! This is one of the main reasons why I think competitive Pokémon is SO much more similar to chess than I think people give it credit for. Yeah, obviously same time turns, RNG, and team building are MASSIVE differences… but how you have to maintain your position throughout the game is so so similar. I’d argue the approach/strategy of early/mid/end game is very similar. The thought processes behind how to make the next best move overlap so much!
This is like saying "all strategy games are like chess because you need strategy to be good at it", which is true, but like, obvious. The issue here is a lot of people don't think of pokemon as a strategy game, even though, on a competitive level, it clearly is one.
@@henriquepacheco7473 very fair haha. I guess I’d go a little further and say in the “strategy game universe” that it’s even closer than people would expect. For example, I’d put Pokémon battling closer to chess than the Pokémon TCG (despite being same universe and also a strategy game) and other card-based strategy games in general. The “squad management” aspect is very different and (despite there being a lot of RNG), you always know every resource that’s currently/will soon be available to you in mons. (What I’m trying to say… random deck order makes card-based strategy games fundamentally further from mons and chess than they are from each other).
Hey bud, another lovely video. I was listening to an older one yesterday and you offhandedly mentioned how one could make the case for McMeghan being the GOAT (or one of them) across multiple generations. It got me thinking as one of the people here who only recently got into the scene and as a result is missing all the context of great players it would be super interesting to have a more player focused history video rather than the typical battle/mechanic focused videos - not to say I don't adore those. Totally understand if that's not something you're interested in covering but thought I'd throw it out there nonetheless. edit: Pokemon's Greatest Trainers 👀
I totally agree with you. Predictions literally turns into a guessing mind games more than skill game, unlike managing your positioning + knowing when to make positive sacrifices etc
You’d really benefit from a script. You made good points but they come across unfocused and rambling. It seems like you just recorded this on the fly and we’re discussing thoughts as they popped into your head. Good video otherwise. Very informative.
6:00 this part brings me flashbacks about the time I lost a match because my opponent brought encore accegelor to a gen 8 OU match. Sometimes your opponent just something so unfathomably stupid that you could never see it coming
This idea reminds me a lot of the Wolfey video where he would play games while literally telling his opponent what he is going to do, and would still be winning games because he’s just playing better.
Well said. It's so important to see your win conditions and evaluate risk/reward in a game like mons. It's easy to lose sight of your game plan and feel like you have to predict, but more games are probably lost on bad predictions than won on good ones. Oftentimes the best way to outplay is to set yourself up so you don't need to at all.
Hi, first-time viewer here, and I wanted to (kindly) note a few things, if you've got time to read them. - The start of the video has us sitting on a pause screen for well over ten minutes without anything to keep my eyes on it. This feels especially noticeable when you're speaking on the ADV Dugtrio scenario, making me imagine the battle in my head, but not providing any visual aid. It makes me wish I was _watching_ something, rather than imagining it. - Your wording makes it difficult to follow what you're trying to say. You go through multiple play-by-play scenarios every so often in the mid-section of the video, and changing your meaning halfway through a sentence means my own brain has to catch up while ignoring what was previously said. That there makes it harder to follow along, at least for me. Please know I mean no ill will! I myself am an aspiring video editor, about to get a desktop for the first time in years (the last one burst into flame LMAO), but I'm experienced with how annoying adding content can be. Just a little visual aid and scripting feels like it could go a long way here!
Thank you so much for doing this video ! I've been trying to explain this for so long, now I'll just link this video. Edit : someone could do a video called "Why prediction is overrated in competitive XXXXXXX ?" and that would be right for anything
I remember one game in Monotype (maybe Gen VII) I let my opponent kill my Staraptor on purpose just so I could bring in Porygon-Z for free against a good matchup and win with Z-Conversion, a play which I had planned beforehand. This resulted in me winning. My opponent got angry because of this because in his mind he outplayed me because he predicted I would stay in and killed my Pokémon due to it. But that kill only worked in my advantage since it allowed me a safe chance to set-up Z-Conversion and win, a chance I could not get otherwise. So he thought he got punished for outsmarting me because he got punished for predicting my immediate next move, even though really he got punished for being outsmart by me because I looked more than 1 turn ahead which he clearly did not. I think he focussed too much on prediction. It seemed like in his mind Pokémon is 100% about predicting the current turn and killing Pokémon by doing so. Positioning and looking mutiple turns ahead were things that did not exist to him. And to win through positioning and looking beyond the current turn against someone who predicted your immediate move seemed like cheating to him.
Hey man, this video would have gotten me to sub, but I feel the presentation is not where it should be. I really like the idea, and it's very clear you know what you're talking about, but you need to script this more. You handpicked this game because it so clearly shows what you want to talk about. You try to bring your message across and the viewer gets it; focus on Heidreigon dark pulsing and don't predict when there's a safer play. Success, I got it. However, even though I got the message, it's not enjoyable (to me) to listen to you talk about it. It's not your voice or anything, but you start SO many sentences and change your mind about what you're going to say halfway through. You either come back to the idea later, or not at all. It's incredibly jarring. I wouldn't mind if this were an everyday kind of vid where you just analyze a game you played, but you're trying to highlight a fundamental concept of playing the game; make safe plays over predictions, predictions can be high reward but are often high risk. To me, this video is meant to educate and to explain a way to think competitively. You gave it structure by first priming the viewer (garchomp EQ vs 6 heatrans) and then built on the structure by going over a very relevant game (heidreigon dark pulse is the garchomp EQ). Imo you then tore everything you built down by freestyling the play by play. If you didn't have notes, please make some; if you did have notes please make them more detailed. I would listen to/watch a thousand of these vids if they were more digestible. The idea was so core to the game and how to play, and the example was so perfect. Really great job on that, and I hope you don't take this the wrong way. It comes across like you think a little faster than you speak (and who doesn't, I get it) but it really puts me off wanting to hear more from you in that style. I'm not a video maker or anything so I can't know what goes into it, but because im having these thoughts, i'm sure other viewers/listeners feel the same. I'm greedy and would love to hear more of your thoughts on other aspects of the game.
Bullet Punch from Mega Sciz did 26%. Bug Bite is 3* stronger (2* from Super Effectiveness, 1.5* from the difference in base power.) 26*3=78, Hydreigon was at 88. Still risked a crit roll (and potentially risked it having more attack investment) but the odds were very highly stacked in Star's favor.
true, but first, it isn't even guaranteed to have the move and even if it does, he could still switch to landorus afterwards and keep hydreigon around to finish off slowbro at the end (crit nonwithstanding). Lopunny would then take care of everything else, basically. And this way, he is guaranteed to do a lot of damage to whatever stays in front of him, turning the resulting situation into one that can easily be converted to a win. Also, using dark pulse crucially ensures, that latios and slowbro cannot try to become clever and try to switch into a predicted flamethrower to subvert momentum, which is probably more important than dodging a potential crit on hydreigon. But yeah, definitely an interesting decision that has been made here. There is a lot of things to consider when making such a decision and there is certainly pros and cons to it. But playing it safe is definitely a decision that I personally can support.
Just some friendly advice for future vids, but if you're going to be talking for 12 mins straight have some form of footage playing because me staring at the start of a replay got me really disengaged (even though your explanation was wonderful)
This reminds me of gen 6, I tried playing smogon and I noticed compared to wifi things like mega swampert would never actually threaten my team and waste a turn setting up hazards 99% of the time. I stopped treating swampert would attack, went from around 1680ish to 1900 after that.
It has always seemed to me that making move choices based off prediction really comes down to risk versus reward. Obviously there is something to be said for learning your opponent as you're playing against them and slowly becoming familiar with their default choices, but it feels like a lot of times people don't actually properly weigh what they gained by predicting right and what they'll lose by predicting wrong. Even if we take the example of metagross using earthquake against a steel type knowing they have a flying type in the back, it could be very tempting to go for rokslide, but if you have something you can easily switch in to check whatever flying type might come in on the earthquake why even bother especially when the punishment for being wrong is taking status effect or just straight up dying. More often than not you're better off just playing what's on the field until your opponent has shown that they are willing to make the same choices consistently and even then it's still off and not worth the risk unless you're backed into a corner or the punishment for being wrong is guaranteed to be small which is obviously rare.
I've been playing gen 3 OU for obvious reasons and it cracks me up whenever people pull crazy double switches to get a Pokemon in that they know that I have a direct counter to. Good job getting the Zapdos and on the skarmory doesn't really mean anything if you don't have the balls to triple switch as I go to the blissey that will wall your forever. Basic example I know but I see a lot of people do that and it's usually extremely risky for basically no reward
In defence of "everything is a 50 50", it's not that we truely believe it, it's just that it is an efficient way to model the situation and arrive at the correct way to position ourselves without having to model the situation perfectly. The might be a move that hit's the opponents pokemon for super effective damage, but resisted damage for the switch in, and another move that hits the resisted one but not the current pokemon, and a third which hits both. We can say it's a 50 50 between the mon currently in, and the one which will swap in. Then go for the one which hits both if it is sufficient to win. Or if a resisted hit is still winning, the resisted, because in this case it's 50 50 winning, and winning even more. The point being that we arrived at the correct solution without having to correctly judge the odds of each move happening. And that can save time for other thought processes.
The other big mistake is falling into the always midground play. You do need to make swing plays, you just want them to be highest reward, lowest risk and you always want to consider the position you're put in after. If you talk about the surf at 22:31 that was, in my opinion, as 50/50 as it gets. Latios is a huge threat just as hydreigon is, neither player can really afford to lose that respective mon but device is in a losing position, so taking a gamble that could swing the game is worth it for him
I sometimes use random number generation to randomise my moves, I think up odds, and then run them through rng, so I can make predictions when I need them, and be unpredictable myself. good luck trying to get into my head when it's empty. So if I make an insane read once in a blue moon, you can't do anything about it.
Hey BKC! I have a tangential question, because while I feel like I am good at thinking about the game state instead of the right predictions, it is so easy to go on autopilot on ladder and also play not with a plan from the beginning, but just developing it as the game moves forward. Do you have tips for staying in that planning mindstate any time you play, and do you think watching more tour games can help you develop that subconscious?
wish you talked a lil more about substitute since I like to use is in place of more risk oriented prediction and I feel it has more unique interactions with prediction itself
I think this video goes kinda well with your other one titled "How do we determine what makes a play 'good'?" th-cam.com/video/QVZL3SX88dY/w-d-xo.html In it you mention a question along the lines of "How stupid are you going to look if this doesn't work?" and I think that's the problem with trying to be too predict heavy where in people end up making moves based on what they think people will do rather than making moves based on what would be the lowest risk with the highest reward Of course there's stuff like RNG and your opponent predicting you and all that, and when that happens it can feel like you need to make your own predictions just to regain some lost ground, and I think that is a situation in which prediction can feel necessary, but in general I think doing so when you don't need to is a bad habit and one I'm trying to break out of as well
On turn 11 at roughly 23:00 , was it smartest to pivot amoongus on the possible surf or sac on Draco then pivot heatran. If heatran was max hp max speed surf wouldve at least been a 2HKO? And I think heatran was more important at that stage in the game. Also if amoongus got surfed then it could pivot out and regenerator
Yeah Pokemon AI only switch out Pokemon in like really weirdly specific scenarios, I've always wanted them to add a post-game boss that has like a metagame set
I play ADV OU and what you described at 6:44 is what loses me games low on the ladder all the time. Worse than that is when I try and predict their team and its just some rando that doesnt know the meta using their favorite mons and theres usually one thats hard to counter since no one builds their team around countering a Walrein or something lol
remember: prediction is fine, but positioning is all!
replay: replay.pokemonshowdown.com/smogtours-ou-169219
music: th-cam.com/video/LuEC2YKBLoQv/w-d-xo.html
Hello BKC. I enjoyed this video!
bkc do you know ways to make positioning easier from teambuilder
No one tell Blunder about this video.
If you don't overpredict and throw the game as a result, you're not a true agent.
I love the community around blunder lol
Agency represent
Or CTC
If you’re not going hard hippo every other turn you’re not a true agent
i generally tell my newer friends:
• find your threats
• find their barriers to your threats
• find their threats
• find your barriers to their threats
and even on that simple of a level the game makes a lot more sense
Knock-Off is arguably the best mid-ground move in the game. The enemy can know its coming, but it doesn't matter. Someone is losing an item.
@The OG Knocking boots/leftovers/black sludge on a defensive mon is the only way to beat some of these stall teams. I think boots in particular have made knock off an even more important move
Hence why z-moves and mega stones were good, they blocked knock off boost
It’s also why Zamazenta is even still in Ubers as the Pokémon who can tank Knock Off. The rest came later. Knock Off immunities really are important.
@@iantaakalla8180 Yup. Also the reason why Yveltal is the best Uber currently.
@@bigmonke3348 both the boost and the L of being crippled by losing the important item. Removing the good unknockable items made Knock even more spammable, and it already was one of the best physical moves around
I had a BW UU tournament game where not predicting won it for me. I had a Zapdos with rocks up, my opponent had a spinning Blastoise with a Rhyperior in the back. I was able to position my Zapdos in on his Blastoise every time.
I clicked Thunderbolt, he switched to Rhyperior. The next two times, I once again pivoted in my Zapdos on his Blastoise and thunderbolted into the Rhyperior switch.
Now, on the fourth time, he thought I would predict and no longer thunderbolt as I was thudding into a ground type every time, and he stayed in with his Blastoise to spin - I clicked tbolt once again and killed it.
He got impatient and tried to predict me, but I had no interest in predicting - I considered clicking thunderbolt to be a spinblock. I would've clicked thunderbolt 16 times if he kept making that double, because I had rocks up and knew it was chipping him badly, and I wanted to prevent rapid spin at costs.
READERS, YOU DON'T NEED TO PREDICT EVEN IF YOUR ATTACKS ARE DOING NO DAMAGE - STICK TO YOUR GAMEPLAN! A SOLID PLAN WILL ALWAYS WIN LONG-TERM! TRYING TO OUTPLAY YOUR OPPONENT WITH A RISKY PREDICTION WILL LOSE YOU THE GAME!
It depends totally on the situation. You could keeping Tbolting a Rhyperior because you certainly had a good Rhyperior answer in the back. Your opponent also probably knew that the continuous chip SR damage would put its Blastoise in a range for you to kill it even with HP Ice. What is important actually is to be able to see situations where you could have troubles based on your decision, so your ability to foresee turns over your opponent and the game overall, seeking for a win condition, is the main factor in my opinion.
Ace king vs ace queen 😎
That was predicting
but in this case you don’t need to predict because you have a way to punish switches. this is not ubiquitous
Thats.... Still predicting
BKC videos always feel like a college lecture in applied pokemon theory.
Professor BKC
When you gave the 6 heatran scarf chomp example it gave me a reminder to an adv example of this concept. When I use a team that has a lead hariyama I always have the name “I will knock off” because most of the time I will, unless they lead something like mence
"surely it's a mindgame and it's a focus punch set, he wouldn't say he was gonna knock off if he was going to..."
@@whitejacket9725 "Damn"
@@whitejacket9725 as they proceed to switch in gengar🤭
a gengar without lefties is awful though
@@tecul1 exactly that’s the point
as someone who has been top 10 on the current ou ladder many times, this is IMO why so many people get hardstuck in the 1600s range and why i find it to be the most frustrating part of the ladder to play through. players in that elo think that prediction is everything and are way more focused on 'winning' individual turns by predicting correctly than on winning the game as a whole.
As a guy hardstuck in the 1600s, the second part hurts
As a guy who sucks at ladder and it only at the 1400's my brain no work
Holy shit this post is so accurate it HURTS...mainly because it's calling me out specifically
I remember this DPP warstory on Smogon where one player just completely and utterly outplayed the other in the prediction game, using his Lefties Gengar to make incredibly ballsy plays with double-switching and Subs to wipe half of the other guy's team. And yet somehow the other player managed to play around it and wound up sweeping the other team entirely using Choice Band Azumarill and its Aqua Jet spam. The other guy was one move ahead the whole game, but failed to preserve his physically bulky checks, even blowing up his Metagross on a Celebi that was no threat to the rest of his team.
Replay, please! 🤭
honestly i relate to both of side of the story god predicting but losing huge and getting outpredicted but still win
@@LuizOMenudo Unfortunately I don't have one, but you can find the warstory in Smogon's warstory archive, entitled Predicting Over and Under. One of the commenters even said the predicting player should be playing the lottery instead of Pokemon.
Ctc moment
@@whydoiexist2180 Honestly I find that style of play very prevalent with mid-ladder players. It's precisely what BKC is talking about. They feel like they're winning in the moment because they get the turns right, failing to realise that I'm letting them get the predicts in because I'm focused on long term positioning, in this case weakening the Azumarill checks
Damn the players that think staying in on EQ with trapper Tran to get Lando Toxic'd thinking the Lando will Stealth Rock are going to be in for a rude awakening with this video.
no joke i remember the balloon tran vs lando I days in gen 8. if they go for earth power/sludge wave, then you got a free turn. if they go for focus blast, rip. made for some hilarious 50/50’s.
1700 OU ladder in a nutshell
CTC feeling a disturbance somewhere
Ferrothorn can stay in on Heatran as it will get up Stealth Rocks most of the time (FACT)
what i never understood about that lot is the way that they so often do it turn 1, which is like, the worst turn to make such a poor high-risk play
“it’s only an overpredict if it doesn’t work out”
5:50 "My opponent played too bad for me to win"
Reminds me of the time I lost to 6 scarf mons
still, there is no "greater" feeling than getting screwed on using a status move on a choice-locked pokemon (like scarf thunder wave) against a pokemon staying in that had zero business staying in (because it can neither survive your attack nor threaten you back) but can threaten literally everything except for the pokemon you currently have out ....
but then again ... I was using a specs heatran with stealth rock in that game .... I guess, the jokes ARE still on me :D
It's like in poker - if you start to think "I know that he knows that I know that he knows..." to make a play, it never ends, so whatever you do really becomes a toss-up. Better to think in terms of covering most options, having the most reward with less risk, etc, within a mixed strategy. It's like when people say "mind games" in fight games etc too
I think this is true in a certain respect, but by always choosing the "best option" your play becomes very brittle and predictable.
"This option is the best option. I will win 60% of the time when I choose this. Therefore I will choose it every time."... as an attitude might win you 60% of games, but what happens when you're playing a game you can't afford to lose? When a 40% chance of losing is unacceptable?
If all you do is pick the "best" strategy every time, you're playing no better than a computer and you'll lose like a computer.
On the other hand, if the stakes aren't high, there's no reason to be afraid of failure.
Failure is the catalyst of growth. Try out something newー something that isn't "the best option", and you may discover that your understanding of the game changes, and so do you as a player.
The truth is, there is no "best option". There are safe options and risky options, but trying to be as safe as possible all the time carries risk of it's own.
If there was a best option, everyone would bring the same team of Pokémon to every tournament and every fighting game player would play the same character.
As silly as it sounds, I recommend picking "bad" options from time to time, if for no other reason than the power of surprise. When you do something unexpected, you take control of the momentum of the game. You do have to get enough value from that momentum to justify the difference in the value of the options, but if you can unseat your opponent from their comfort zone you're often already there.
One interesting part of the "there is no 50-50" is how that becomes more true the earlier in the game you adopt that mentality, because thinking like that tends to give you more endgame situations where safe options are possible then the ones where it is actually just a prediction, as both players will have few enough options for that to really happen
the saying is that there is no "TRUE" 50-50. Sometimes you have to take chances like needing to hit a Zapdos thunder on that weakened Snorlax to kill it before it can use rest. But those situations are not actually a 50% chance (or 70% in the case of thunder) to win. Because there is so many things surrounding that one turn: one of the players will benefit more from winning the "50-50" than the other will. Bringing yourself into a situation, where even losing such a "50-50" still leaves you in a good spot, THATS what competetive pokemon is about. But I fully agree. The earlier one adopts that mentality, the better.
God, I needed this video. I predict way too much, I know and accept this and it's something I need to change, and the line "My opponent was too bad for me to beat" is something I'm guilty of wayyyyy too much for way too long.
One thing that's helped me is the idea of "what is my wincon? What do I need to do to be able to realize that?"
I started on generation 5 and stuff like dragmag and mega charizard y offense really helped me learn how to get into a position that is good
For example, in yard teams a lot of the time they have a weak check to yard like latios, so the 2 questions were "can I get my ttar in vs their latios" or "can my charizard come in safely 3 times so i can fire blast lati a bunch". Either way, I could win by getting to those positions (with or without predictions). You wanna play to your wincons, not play to try to beat out the opponent at every turn
before making a prediction, always ask your self two things: 1. "do I need to predict here?" and 2. "does getting the prediction wrong hurt me in the long run?". Based on the answers to these questions, it is usually much easier to decide what to do in that situation.
My girlfriend always wants to D-claw our cats. I always tell her to use to Draco Meteor though, predicting a U-turn out to the dog.
So your girlfriend is a mixed attacker
this is something people need to know about video games in general. predictions only happen with ample game knowledge, but unless you're competing at the top level game knowledge alone is more than enough to win in almost every situation.
Good video. One other thing that could be mentioned is that PokeTube in general over-emphasizes predictions because the cases in which they have an extreme reward for unjustifiably risky plays make for more exciting content. Effectively it is a metagame where players optimize for the most views/subs over the most wins, and while these things do coincide to a large degree, there is a conflict between them here that is more subtle than just running 'heat' mons/sets that are a clear handicap. And since the large PokeTubers are very good players in general and clearly influential, there is likely some effect in excessively promoting high risk/reward predictions in the 'real' metagame.
Love how you always find the most obvious/day to day topics in Pokémon and make them something special and well thought. This video was necessary and extremely didactic for newer players. Great job Kev, keep it up
The absolute gigachad move is predicting the predict. When you have Heatran and the opponent has Landorus, your opponent is going to predict that you switch to your Corviknight. Instead, you leave the Heatran in and click Stealth Rock, making Heatran take the U-turn.
And then it burns it because you were using Flame Body heatran the whole time.
Just want to say watching this helped immensely. I like offensive teams, but I thought that you had to go for ballsy predictions or else you'd get walled. What actually matters is building a team with a real game plan and executing that plan, rather than loading up on sweepers and trying to predict. Thank you bkc
You know, this doesn’t really have to do with the topic, but this replay would definitely show how people underestimate defensive Terastallizing in upcoming SV. Device could pack on a Dark type resist without changing his team. Now Hydreigon has to suddenly deal with Fairy type Slowbro or Fighting type Thundurus with also Focus Blast.
This is probably gonna be the biggest application of the mechanic right here. Very insightful
Fuck that shit
I find it funny that playing Smash Bros actually made me realize the whole risk/ reward dynamic and looking for safe plays which can then be reapplied to Pokemon. When you're good at predicting you end up over-relying on it and it's a bad habit to undo.
I haven't watched the video yet, but usually I get push back when I say this. I don't like when youtubers keep their 4x weak mon, it dies, and then they go "What a moron!" after they already made 4 aggressive plays that game
If you’re put in a position where you have to predict it’s because you made a mistake so most time you’re better on making mid grounds because making a mid ground will get you more out the turn than a bad prediction. That being said, fire blast the heatran on a predicted ferrothorn switch to assert dominance does give you so much momentum both in the physical and mental part of the game.
This goes for every mental sport. There is a phrase that sums it up perfecty.
"You are never going to beat someone at chess if they only play checkers".
Basically, don't try to complicate things for yourself, before any serious mindgames happen, you have to know how to beat someone at their own game. I think many people reading this know the feeling of "how did this person beat me? I can beat better players but this guy is just too random", when in reality, high level strategies just don't work on low level.
As someone who has peaked #1 multiple times in ou, I can tell you that you are wrong about high level strategies losing to low level strategies. As the video posits, it’s all about positioning and keeping the long game in mind. For you to often lose to low level strategies with your “high level” strategy, it’s clear your strategy is not actually high level.
This comment is patently wrong and generally incoherent.
I think another very helpful way of thinking is in terms of "win conditions". You should always be making moves that bring you closer to your win condition.
For example, in Gen 2 OU I play a team built around Marowak. *Usually* my win condition is: get Marowak out on the field with a Swords Dance, after first making sure anything that can outspeed it is either paralyzed or dead. So I'm always thinking along the lines of, "Does my opponent have any Marowak checks left? Are they crippled enough that Marowak can deal with them? What can I do to get closer to my ideal situation?" And I use that sort of flow chart mentality to inform my decision making.
You can even take it a step further and think, "What is my *opponent's* win condition? How can I avoid letting them set that condition up? Which of my mons are critical to blocking their win condition?"
I have seen the AI switch a few times: it’s usually only when they have no moves that can even damage you (your Pokémon is immune to their move) but yeah they almost never switch
in more recent games the ai will sometimes switch if they have an imunity to the move your using in the back but thats really the only aplicable switch scenario I can think of
@@critaquil5011 the ai will also switch if affect by perish song
@@critaquil5011 more specifically, if they have an ability that makes them immune to the move that was last used on the pokemon that switches out. By the way, the AI even does that if the attacker has the ability mold breaker, lol.
@@IschmarVI is it only abilities? I thought it was also type-based immunities
@@critaquil5011 I can only talk about gen 6 because this is where I did all my battle maison challenges, but in that gen, it is specifically if the immunity comes from an ability, not if the immunity is due to typing.
The biggest flex is being in a position where you can tell your opponent what you’re gonna do because they can’t do shit to stop it :)
spore amoonguss be like
this video actually has helped me realize what im doing wrong wrt predictions. thank you for the wisdom!
1000% agree
Oh, hey
Coincidence that this video comes out right after the Baselord choked in his Smogon Champion league game because of overpredicting? I think not!
Regarding the 6 Heatran examples, I feel that this is the primary reason something like Scald is so powerful, predictable, but does lots of damage and can potentially burn 90% of ‘mons.
I know like what were they doing with making scald, the fire types immune to burn are weak to the move, and Guts users usually aren't that great special defensively.
I would like to see a physical attacker with great special defense and Guts and Facade and it is also Water type and has a wide movepool. It would be the ultimate scald counter.
Grass types are attacked by a stray Ice coverage move, and that’s it.
This, omg, THIS!!! Positioning is everything! This is one of the main reasons why I think competitive Pokémon is SO much more similar to chess than I think people give it credit for. Yeah, obviously same time turns, RNG, and team building are MASSIVE differences… but how you have to maintain your position throughout the game is so so similar. I’d argue the approach/strategy of early/mid/end game is very similar. The thought processes behind how to make the next best move overlap so much!
This is like saying "all strategy games are like chess because you need strategy to be good at it", which is true, but like, obvious. The issue here is a lot of people don't think of pokemon as a strategy game, even though, on a competitive level, it clearly is one.
@@henriquepacheco7473 very fair haha. I guess I’d go a little further and say in the “strategy game universe” that it’s even closer than people would expect. For example, I’d put Pokémon battling closer to chess than the Pokémon TCG (despite being same universe and also a strategy game) and other card-based strategy games in general. The “squad management” aspect is very different and (despite there being a lot of RNG), you always know every resource that’s currently/will soon be available to you in mons. (What I’m trying to say… random deck order makes card-based strategy games fundamentally further from mons and chess than they are from each other).
Idk what it is but something about BKC talking about pokemon for hours ticks my brain
What I learned from this video is that I should bring a dark resist.
…Besides being a good plug for myself.. huh, that’s what she said
Hey bud, another lovely video. I was listening to an older one yesterday and you offhandedly mentioned how one could make the case for McMeghan being the GOAT (or one of them) across multiple generations. It got me thinking as one of the people here who only recently got into the scene and as a result is missing all the context of great players it would be super interesting to have a more player focused history video rather than the typical battle/mechanic focused videos - not to say I don't adore those. Totally understand if that's not something you're interested in covering but thought I'd throw it out there nonetheless.
edit: Pokemon's Greatest Trainers 👀
that would be completely objective
Kevin spending 35 minutes to prepare another masterpiece to bless the Pokemon Community on TH-cam
I totally agree with you.
Predictions literally turns into a guessing mind games more than skill game, unlike managing your positioning + knowing when to make positive sacrifices etc
Very much enjoyed this video. It touches on something I've been working on but never put into words
this is why i only run 4 coverage moves: i can always hit what’s in front of me
That’s not really what you should understand from this video
Based and monochoicepilled
@@atha5469 it was a joke comment anyway
@@fulltimeslackerii8229 ah mb
You’d really benefit from a script. You made good points but they come across unfocused and rambling. It seems like you just recorded this on the fly and we’re discussing thoughts as they popped into your head.
Good video otherwise. Very informative.
thanks much! I did, in fact, record this on the fly, as I always do
That title is me when my opponent switches a Flying type into my Earthquake
But what if I predict me getting 6-0'd? Is that overrated?
If you only focus on your opponent, you have no strategy of your own.
Dang it you totally beat me to this idea. I can't be bothered to complain. Everything you say is always a huge eye opener.
taking a rip out of the bong of knowledge, now thats sweeter than any cherry
6:00 this part brings me flashbacks about the time I lost a match because my opponent brought encore accegelor to a gen 8 OU match. Sometimes your opponent just something so unfathomably stupid that you could never see it coming
Skill issue
That's not stupid, then; that's just preparation lmao
Bro you got caught with encore accelgor in OU, that mon is a speed stat and a dream,, that player actually outplayed you hard as fuck
I get comically smacked by metaphorical giant anvils as a result of trying to predict my opponent all the time.
love videos like this, I know I definitely needed to hear a lot of it. I feel like a class on game theory could be taught using pokemon
'You know, you're new' died a little to that.
This idea reminds me a lot of the Wolfey video where he would play games while literally telling his opponent what he is going to do, and would still be winning games because he’s just playing better.
Well said. It's so important to see your win conditions and evaluate risk/reward in a game like mons. It's easy to lose sight of your game plan and feel like you have to predict, but more games are probably lost on bad predictions than won on good ones. Oftentimes the best way to outplay is to set yourself up so you don't need to at all.
"o my opponent played too bad for me to predict"
CTC in a nutshell 🤣
Pls make more like these. I really love these type of videos.
Hi, first-time viewer here, and I wanted to (kindly) note a few things, if you've got time to read them.
- The start of the video has us sitting on a pause screen for well over ten minutes without anything to keep my eyes on it. This feels especially noticeable when you're speaking on the ADV Dugtrio scenario, making me imagine the battle in my head, but not providing any visual aid. It makes me wish I was _watching_ something, rather than imagining it.
- Your wording makes it difficult to follow what you're trying to say. You go through multiple play-by-play scenarios every so often in the mid-section of the video, and changing your meaning halfway through a sentence means my own brain has to catch up while ignoring what was previously said. That there makes it harder to follow along, at least for me.
Please know I mean no ill will! I myself am an aspiring video editor, about to get a desktop for the first time in years (the last one burst into flame LMAO), but I'm experienced with how annoying adding content can be. Just a little visual aid and scripting feels like it could go a long way here!
Thank you so much for doing this video !
I've been trying to explain this for so long, now I'll just link this video.
Edit : someone could do a video called "Why prediction is overrated in competitive XXXXXXX ?" and that would be right for anything
I remember one game in Monotype (maybe Gen VII) I let my opponent kill my Staraptor on purpose just so I could bring in Porygon-Z for free against a good matchup and win with Z-Conversion, a play which I had planned beforehand. This resulted in me winning.
My opponent got angry because of this because in his mind he outplayed me because he predicted I would stay in and killed my Pokémon due to it. But that kill only worked in my advantage since it allowed me a safe chance to set-up Z-Conversion and win, a chance I could not get otherwise. So he thought he got punished for outsmarting me because he got punished for predicting my immediate next move, even though really he got punished for being outsmart by me because I looked more than 1 turn ahead which he clearly did not.
I think he focussed too much on prediction. It seemed like in his mind Pokémon is 100% about predicting the current turn and killing Pokémon by doing so. Positioning and looking mutiple turns ahead were things that did not exist to him. And to win through positioning and looking beyond the current turn against someone who predicted your immediate move seemed like cheating to him.
Im thinking about picking up competitive again when the new gen releases, thank you for the brush up!
I like your funny words old man but don't you think this hydreigon got tired from staying afloat throughout the whole team preview :((
Hey man, this video would have gotten me to sub, but I feel the presentation is not where it should be. I really like the idea, and it's very clear you know what you're talking about, but you need to script this more. You handpicked this game because it so clearly shows what you want to talk about. You try to bring your message across and the viewer gets it; focus on Heidreigon dark pulsing and don't predict when there's a safer play. Success, I got it.
However, even though I got the message, it's not enjoyable (to me) to listen to you talk about it. It's not your voice or anything, but you start SO many sentences and change your mind about what you're going to say halfway through. You either come back to the idea later, or not at all. It's incredibly jarring. I wouldn't mind if this were an everyday kind of vid where you just analyze a game you played, but you're trying to highlight a fundamental concept of playing the game; make safe plays over predictions, predictions can be high reward but are often high risk.
To me, this video is meant to educate and to explain a way to think competitively. You gave it structure by first priming the viewer (garchomp EQ vs 6 heatrans) and then built on the structure by going over a very relevant game (heidreigon dark pulse is the garchomp EQ).
Imo you then tore everything you built down by freestyling the play by play. If you didn't have notes, please make some; if you did have notes please make them more detailed. I would listen to/watch a thousand of these vids if they were more digestible. The idea was so core to the game and how to play, and the example was so perfect. Really great job on that, and I hope you don't take this the wrong way. It comes across like you think a little faster than you speak (and who doesn't, I get it) but it really puts me off wanting to hear more from you in that style. I'm not a video maker or anything so I can't know what goes into it, but because im having these thoughts, i'm sure other viewers/listeners feel the same. I'm greedy and would love to hear more of your thoughts on other aspects of the game.
Bullet Punch from Mega Sciz did 26%. Bug Bite is 3* stronger (2* from Super Effectiveness, 1.5* from the difference in base power.)
26*3=78, Hydreigon was at 88. Still risked a crit roll (and potentially risked it having more attack investment) but the odds were very highly stacked in Star's favor.
bites a rarity probably had superpower at best, with Uturn being the strongest likely option
true, but first, it isn't even guaranteed to have the move and even if it does, he could still switch to landorus afterwards and keep hydreigon around to finish off slowbro at the end (crit nonwithstanding). Lopunny would then take care of everything else, basically. And this way, he is guaranteed to do a lot of damage to whatever stays in front of him, turning the resulting situation into one that can easily be converted to a win. Also, using dark pulse crucially ensures, that latios and slowbro cannot try to become clever and try to switch into a predicted flamethrower to subvert momentum, which is probably more important than dodging a potential crit on hydreigon.
But yeah, definitely an interesting decision that has been made here. There is a lot of things to consider when making such a decision and there is certainly pros and cons to it. But playing it safe is definitely a decision that I personally can support.
Always coming up with good and intersting points and things to learn like prediction in this video, i love pokemon content, keep it up
BKC out here making this video hoping his opponents wont just blind switch-in their magneton on his no-earthquake metagross LOL
Switching is such a fundamental aspect of Pokémon, so why is it that none of the enemies do?
And yet they have a million items?
Just some friendly advice for future vids, but if you're going to be talking for 12 mins straight have some form of footage playing because me staring at the start of a replay got me really disengaged (even though your explanation was wonderful)
This reminds me of gen 6, I tried playing smogon and I noticed compared to wifi things like mega swampert would never actually threaten my team and waste a turn setting up hazards 99% of the time. I stopped treating swampert would attack, went from around 1680ish to 1900 after that.
Yo lmao
It has always seemed to me that making move choices based off prediction really comes down to risk versus reward. Obviously there is something to be said for learning your opponent as you're playing against them and slowly becoming familiar with their default choices, but it feels like a lot of times people don't actually properly weigh what they gained by predicting right and what they'll lose by predicting wrong.
Even if we take the example of metagross using earthquake against a steel type knowing they have a flying type in the back, it could be very tempting to go for rokslide, but if you have something you can easily switch in to check whatever flying type might come in on the earthquake why even bother especially when the punishment for being wrong is taking status effect or just straight up dying. More often than not you're better off just playing what's on the field until your opponent has shown that they are willing to make the same choices consistently and even then it's still off and not worth the risk unless you're backed into a corner or the punishment for being wrong is guaranteed to be small which is obviously rare.
I've been playing gen 3 OU for obvious reasons and it cracks me up whenever people pull crazy double switches to get a Pokemon in that they know that I have a direct counter to. Good job getting the Zapdos and on the skarmory doesn't really mean anything if you don't have the balls to triple switch as I go to the blissey that will wall your forever. Basic example I know but I see a lot of people do that and it's usually extremely risky for basically no reward
In defence of "everything is a 50 50", it's not that we truely believe it, it's just that it is an efficient way to model the situation and arrive at the correct way to position ourselves without having to model the situation perfectly.
The might be a move that hit's the opponents pokemon for super effective damage, but resisted damage for the switch in, and another move that hits the resisted one but not the current pokemon, and a third which hits both. We can say it's a 50 50 between the mon currently in, and the one which will swap in. Then go for the one which hits both if it is sufficient to win. Or if a resisted hit is still winning, the resisted, because in this case it's 50 50 winning, and winning even more.
The point being that we arrived at the correct solution without having to correctly judge the odds of each move happening. And that can save time for other thought processes.
Moral of the story? Run a team of 6 heatran
I love the rambling long content so keep on making more helpful videos!
prediction happens a lot in random battles
I waited so long for a vid like this 😍
The other big mistake is falling into the always midground play. You do need to make swing plays, you just want them to be highest reward, lowest risk and you always want to consider the position you're put in after. If you talk about the surf at 22:31 that was, in my opinion, as 50/50 as it gets. Latios is a huge threat just as hydreigon is, neither player can really afford to lose that respective mon but device is in a losing position, so taking a gamble that could swing the game is worth it for him
ok but have you thought that my skinner box brain gives me snack every time I HP ice a ground type switch in
Learned this from doing a shit ton of rotation battles
giving you a like just cause the plug joke had me giggling for longer than it should have
"How can you predict someone who has outstrategised you?"
I sometimes use random number generation to randomise my moves, I think up odds, and then run them through rng, so I can make predictions when I need them, and be unpredictable myself. good luck trying to get into my head when it's empty. So if I make an insane read once in a blue moon, you can't do anything about it.
i use band scizor a lot in natdex and most of the time i dont switch if i’m in late game, their bullet punches often do a hefty amount to most
BKC has been reading game theory, I see
hey bkc i know you love old gen content but when scarlet and violet come out please play it
Hey BKC! I have a tangential question, because while I feel like I am good at thinking about the game state instead of the right predictions, it is so easy to go on autopilot on ladder and also play not with a plan from the beginning, but just developing it as the game moves forward. Do you have tips for staying in that planning mindstate any time you play, and do you think watching more tour games can help you develop that subconscious?
"on turn 13 there were three 50/50s going on at the same time" -BKC
wish you talked a lil more about substitute since I like to use is in place of more risk oriented prediction and I feel it has more unique interactions with prediction itself
Why prediction is overrated: my miraidon never hits the overheat on iron treads
My fangame is going to have important trainers switch out their Pokémon to more advantageous matchups.
I think this video goes kinda well with your other one titled "How do we determine what makes a play 'good'?"
th-cam.com/video/QVZL3SX88dY/w-d-xo.html
In it you mention a question along the lines of "How stupid are you going to look if this doesn't work?" and I think that's the problem with trying to be too predict heavy where in people end up making moves based on what they think people will do rather than making moves based on what would be the lowest risk with the highest reward
Of course there's stuff like RNG and your opponent predicting you and all that, and when that happens it can feel like you need to make your own predictions just to regain some lost ground, and I think that is a situation in which prediction can feel necessary, but in general I think doing so when you don't need to is a bad habit and one I'm trying to break out of as well
tbf, seeing that magneton get earthquaked out of existence WAS satisfying, though
This is the most helpful video Ive seen from you.
No lie. I really be tryna press the replay play button when I watch these.
Do you play LC? I love your analysis and I’m an LC main and it’d be cool to see some content about it from you
The prediction is in the team building
On turn 11 at roughly 23:00 , was it smartest to pivot amoongus on the possible surf or sac on Draco then pivot heatran. If heatran was max hp max speed surf wouldve at least been a 2HKO? And I think heatran was more important at that stage in the game. Also if amoongus got surfed then it could pivot out and regenerator
Like that's gonna stop me from making a game throwing deep read turn one for the chance at a slight advantage [[:
Yeah Pokemon AI only switch out Pokemon in like really weirdly specific scenarios, I've always wanted them to add a post-game boss that has like a metagame set
good video but I think your microphone's gain is a little high
Your content is really good but I feel like it is drawn out. Your videos would benefit a TON from scripting.
I play ADV OU and what you described at 6:44 is what loses me games low on the ladder all the time. Worse than that is when I try and predict their team and its just some rando that doesnt know the meta using their favorite mons and theres usually one thats hard to counter since no one builds their team around countering a Walrein or something lol
thank you for the tutorial it will be useful for my next game.
this is my favorite video of yours of all time