These Are the Battleground States of Future Presidential Elections
ฝัง
- เผยแพร่เมื่อ 19 พ.ค. 2024
- The 2024 Electoral College map is narrower than it ever has been, with as few as six key battlegrounds likely to decide the presidential election between Joe Biden and Donald Trump. But which states considered to be safe for either party will trend towards becoming swing states in future elections?
Check out my official 2024 forecasting website: www.electionpredictionsoffici...
Subscribing to my channel not only helps me out a tremendous amount, but also enables the ability for you to get every single one of my new videos in your subscription boxes; so you'll never miss content from me again! Also, don't forget to click the bell icon for notifications every-time I upload!
You can subscribe here: / @electionpredictionsof...
Election Predictions Official is the fastest-growing non-partisan political channel on TH-cam, focused on analyzing and forecasting elections based on socio-demographics, polling data, and voting patterns. My official 2020 Presidential Election Forecast correctly predicted the outcome in 49 of 50 states. My 2022 Senate Forecast accurately projected the winners in 33 of 34 races.
Follow me on social media:
Instagram: / electionpredictionsoff...
Facebook: / electionpredictionsoff...
Twitter: / epofficialyt
LinkedIn: / ryan-gest-011ab9214
Join our discord: / discord
Get in touch: electionpredictionsofficial@gmail.com
Become a member:
/ @electionpredictionsof...
Thank you to my channel members!
AllNewYear 2023
David Fierce
Angelica Martinez
TheDictator
David B
Michael Goodman
Daniel Gruhn
Dan Jones
Jerome Morrow
This channel is run solely by Ryan Gest, a student at The George Washington University's School of Media and Public Affairs, and an elections data science fellow at Decision Desk HQ.
Hashtags: #2024election #joebiden #donaldtrump
Election Predictions 2024 | Election Night 2024 | 2024 Governor Senate Races | 2024 Midterms Elections | 2024 Predictions | 2024 Polls | Election Polls 2024 | 2020 Election Data for 2024 | Democrats 2024 Strategies | National Polling Data 2024 | Donald Trump 2024 Campaign | Joe Biden 2024 Campaign | 2024 Presidential Election | How Democrats Can Win in 2024 | How Republicans Can Win in 2024 | Mitch McConnell 2024 Strategies | Chuck Schumer 2024 Strategies | Nancy Pelosi 2024 Role | AOC in 2024 | Kevin McCarthy 2024 Role | Will Democrats win in 2024 | 2024 Senate Predictions | 2024 Election Strategies | 2024 Electoral Map | 2024 Races and Candidates | 2024 Election Projections | Can Democrats win the Senate in 2024? | Will Democrats win midterms 2024 | 2024 Senate Elections | 2024 Midterm Elections | Will Democrats Win Midterms 2024? | Will Republicans Lose in 2024? | Will Republicans win in 2024? | Will Republicans Lose Seats in 2024? | 2024 Midterm Predictions | Will Democrats Take the House in 2024? | Will Republicans Retain the House in 2024? | Why are Democrats losing in the Polls for 2024? | Democrats Republicans Future in 2024 | Donald Trump 2024 Impact | Kamala Harris 2024 Campaign | 2024 Democratic Wave Possibility | Democrats' Chances in 2024 | Democratic Convention 2024 | Donald Trump Wins or Loses 2024 | Impeachment Impact on 2024 | Democrats Win 2024 Scenarios | Republicans Win 2024 Scenarios | Joe Biden Wins or Loses 2024 | Who Will Win 2024? | Jo Jorgensen 2024 Campaign | Howie Hawkins 2024 Campaign | Third Party Impact in 2024 | Election Polls 2024 | Polling Data 2024 | 2020 Election Data Analysis for 2024 | Winning Senate Strategies 2024 | Senate Majority Battle 2024 | House Majority Battle 2024 | Governorship Races 2024 | Kamala Harris 2024 Role | Harris for President 2024 | Mike Pence 2024 Speculations | Vice President Kamala Harris 2024 Role | Pence 2024 Campaign | FiveThirtyEight 2024 Predictions | Fox News 2024 Coverage | MSNBC 2024 Coverage | CNN 2024 Coverage | NBC 2024 Coverage | Nikki Haley 2024 Speculations | Ron DeSantis 2024 Speculations | Will Republicans Win in 2024? | Red Wave or Blue Wave in 2024 | Red Tsunami or Blue Tsunami in 2024 | Nancy Pelosi House Speaker Role in 2024 | COVID-19 Impact on 2024 Politics | Mask Mandates and 2024 Politics
![จังหวะนี้ - เม้ก อภิสิทธิ์ [ Official MV ] จอนนี่มิวสิค](http://i.ytimg.com/vi/4gQRZCkRyiU/mqdefault.jpg)
I initially started watching your vids just to see the election predictions, and I didn't give them much thought at first. But the more I've watched your channel, the more I'm surprised by how informative your videos are, especially with you taking a neutral stance on everything (which is a huge breath of fresh air). I never thought I'd find politics interesting, but your content proved me wrong, lol. Thanks for doing what you do.
Blue states that could shift right: New Mexico, Maine, New Jersey, Illinois, New York
Red states that could shift left: Texas, Kansas, Utah, Tennessee, Alaska
Why would Tennessee and Illinois be Swing States?
Tennessee isn't going red any time soon. Yeah we're getting a lot of blue state people moving in, but not all of them are liberal. There are several Californians at my church who are conservative and came here to escape the woke madness. Plus we have voter ID here, which helps prevent a lot of Democrat fuckery.
@@beagleboi1442 In the next 20 years. Illinois has been slowly shifting right and Tennessee is becoming a state in which a bunch of people are flooding
@@govols1995 I meant that it could become competitive, not become an all out blue state
Illinois will never go red but Virginia can definitely become a red state again in the near future
As a resident of Utah we will continue to consistently vote red for at least the next 25-30 years. We are considered a neocon state but there are a lot of residents here that are more aligning themselves with Trump and his America First platform. We are upset, annoyed, and angry of how the democrats, of Biden and his administration, the RINOS have been running our country the last 4 years and that has pretty much solidified Utah as a consistently Republican state. Unlike other states in the country SLC doesn’t dictate on what candidate will get our Electoral votes; there are plenty of communities north and south of SLC to offset one big city dictating our elections.
the southern metropolitan area of your state will vote blue and so will provolone cheese, and that is the nail in your coffin. sorry friend. if i had money i would bet your state is blue
Every state will shift right when they can't eat.....
Every state will shift left once gas prices skyrocket
@rh88841 they voted left and gas skyrockete 1:23 d
@@battle4truth701 you think that was bad? It'll be double digits if we continue to refuse to build renewable and nuclear energy infrastructure.
youre the reason its so high @@rh88841
@rh88841 you just graduated college didn't you?
I can confirm that the residents of Utah will always vote for the presidential candidate that will uphold the values of the US Constitution and the values of the American people.
I can attest to this due to the high population of religious Utahns. They will ensure the US Constitution is held in high regard.
So I don’t think that Utah will flip blue anytime soon (unless the Republican nominee declares to get rid of the 1st amendment, which will probably never happen).
The reason they’ve voted more for Evan McMullin and Mitt Romney is due to religious affiliation. Utah is red.
The reason that Utah has a high college education population is also due to religious reasons, they want their members to be educated. And just because someone is college educated does not mean they will vote blue. In Utah I think that’s the exact opposite.
This was a good video though! Great job!
Californian migration will keep utah trending left though.
Indeed. The only way I can see Utah (and surrounding Western states) become "swing" states is if the Libertarians becomes a politically viable party.
The religion issue was overlooked in this video. The declining birthrate of the blue areas was also overlooked.
@@Xanatos_Clutch I don’t think Utahns would turn to the libertarian. But it could always be a possibility.
@@Newbmann True, Californians have been making lots of states trend left. Like Texas, Arizona, Utah, North Carolina, and Florida.
I’m sorry my neighbors aren’t as politically aware and are abandoning our state to ruin another’s.
Jersey, Virginia, MN are longshots for 2024 but not impossible
Minnesota will be in the same package as Maine and NH.
Only possible under a amazing night for spoiler canidates.
Virginia and Jersey I SERIOUSLY DOUBT.
Even with that dem insider poll that had virginia within the margin of error.
New Jersey is impossible they voted for Biden by 16% points and voted for Hillary by 14% points.
This is similar to Illinois 17.1% point win for Biden and the 17.5% point win for Hillary.
@@beasley1232 The only reason it's on people's radar was there was a single poll that only had biden up by 2 there.
I wouldn't take it at face value and is nearly outside the margin of error but that massive of a polling swing certainly means something even if it's off by 5.
@@Newbmann Same here, I would take in that New Jersey poll with a microscopic grain of salt. Especially since it’s just 1 poll it doesn’t really mean anything, since it’s New Jersey, it’s unlikely to vote for Trump or even be competitive.
Colorado and NM seem likelier than Jersey and Virginia at the moment
I think the reason Utah is the way it is is because of the large Mormon population. They'd tend more toward socially conservative candidates, but I don't think that brash characters like Trump get their support as well as someone more, well, boring from my perspective.
He’s not very popular in Utah. Even nicki Hailey got a good amount of votes during the primary in the state.
I’d love to see a state literally swing 😂
Hard to take seriously "analysis" that fails to take into account the fact that Hispanics already pivoted to Republican
I like how you pigeonhole one of the largest voting blocks into one party. It’s split, just like the rest of this country…
I don't think Florida will shift left soon. Reps are benefitting from the population shit, and it has become a Republican refuge. The Urban areas is Miami and Tampa have grown and become more conservative. Republicans have almost a million more registered voters and that number is increasing.
Virginia is definitely gonna start shifting right in the near future since the population is not growing like it did from 2008-2014. And the DC suburbs are shrinking in population due to the high cost of housing.
While the Dems retook the state legislature it was by extremely narrow margins in many races so I definitely expect Virginia to gradually become a red state again
You underestimate NOVA
Oh God dont give me nightmares of an AOC Presidential term.... just go look at her district and you'll find out why
No kidding! I love my country and want to stay here, but even I would have to reconsider with AOC at the helm.
Globally the left has used a consistent and formidable winning strategy. That strategy is one of the most successful ones ranking up there with Christianity and Islam in engulfing people to its fold. It preys on people's empathy and laziness, employs corrupt rich people to fund infiltration into indoctrination channels and secures the system with rail guards. America is a living example. The Church generates plenty of a feeling of empathy in society. Mandatory schooling is the captive indoctrination channel. Billionaires can fund elections and the Judiciary can be bought bottom up. Where are any mechanisms to check infiltration of the ideology? In about 2 generations a thinking population is lost, indoctrinated into an ideology.
I would not rule AOC out with the kind of "education" people get.
she's got a great rack tho
Cool
AOC is an obvious choice because of brand recognition. But Obama and Trump were out of left field so you never now.
Thanks for the video
I Pray all our states be secured and well protected. We need honest people working. GOD, seal our elections. Let no hurt or harm come into. We don't want another year of obiden kind. We want Trump not another pinnochio.
You people are so pathetic
SC is safe for the GOP
That would be Georgia population keeps on growing among those counties being Fulton,Cobb,DeKalb, Gwinnett, once voting population top 1millions vts alone in one county the state would be more Democratic
Growth in the atlanta area has allready slowed from its peak around 2017-2019.
And even the post covid dead cat bounce has begun loseing alot of steam.
Not to mention trends in other parts of the state, like Athens,Savanah,or Marrieta which are trending right.
I still would bet on it, but not with much confidence.
Yeah i can see Georgia, Arizona and even Utah& South Carolina sometimes in the future basically become like Virginia. Safe blue. And states like illinois and minnesote, even Oregon and washington become like Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennyslvania, which is more swing-ish
I could see Tennessee shifting toward the left with the large amount of Californians moving to East Tennessee, not anytime soon, but if East Tennessee flips to the left, then so does Tennessee because Nashville isn't big enough to counteract Memphis and Knoxville going blue
I don't see so. Tenn, outside of Nashville and Memphis is ruby red, with 80% of people voting Republican there. These two big cities would not be enough to overcome it, expecially if Democrats lose some of Black support (Biden won 87% of them in 2020, and now he's polling at below 80%)
I think the reason you can’t see any Democratic states trending Republican in 20 years, but you can see Republican ones trending Democratic, is mainly due to your Democratic bias. It is understandable, as a person who has a Republican bias would find a Democratic state, but not a Republican state.
I honestly see Maine being a battleground, I am shocked you rejected that. Hell, it Is going to be close this year as well. I agree that New Mexico is possible as well. Also, I would argue that Kansas has more of a chance of becoming a battleground over Utah, but maybe I’m just smoking crack, lol.
future is not bright for GOP as there are more educated people and more urbanized area and more diverse ppl. GOP will lose many of the current red states including Texas. Texas will become a swing state in few years and eventually blue state. Florida being red state will not last long as young hispanics favors dem. this will the last election that the GOP has a chance of winning it bc dem will win every election in the next several decades. the blue states are getting more blue and red states are becoming swing state and blue.. this is the fact.
If you think HE is bias to the Democrats then wait till you see Let's Talk Elections
Why is Kansas trending bluer than Missouri?
@@zerefsunlimitedshipworks because Wichita and Kansas City Metro have grown and Missouri has shifted Right in the last 10 years
McMullin is LDS, so that padded things quite a bit for Utah in the presidential race. I don't think it's Trump-ism, but rather, Trump himself that is the turnoff for a chunk of Utahans.
How do separate Trump vs Trump-ism? As a Utahn myself, there are plenty of MAGA Republicans who I dislike for the same reasons why I dislike Trump. Even if Trump disappears tomorrow, the movement may continue.
I think Kansas really has a shot to be competitive:
*Trump won it by 21 is 2016 and just 15 in 2020, 4 points more democrat than the national shift.
*The most populated county in the state, Johnson County (over 20% of the population), home to Kansas City suburbs like Overland Park and Olathe has rapidly shifted left after it voted for Trump in 2016. Biden swung it by 11 points, and it is a prime example of the suburbs leaving the Trump. The area also continues to grow rapidly.
*Most of the state lives near this area, and is also shifting left.
*Kansas elected Laura Kelly, a democrat, as governor twice.
Didn't you make an almost identical video in 2019 or 2020? Literally the only thing you changed is Oregon is no longer a state the GOP can capitalize on. I can (unfortunately) see Alaska as a left trending state and New Mexico being a red trending state eventually, but Utah? While you present a decent argument, I'll believe it when I see it.
he did cuz i watched it this morning, it was only 7 months ago
It shows the polarization. People vote with their feet right now. And I suggest everyone start really thinking about where they live and if it fits their values. If not that is not a community that will stand by you in the long run.
best to just leave the west altogether. i think christians have a better time in china than in usa
This will eventually be reorganized into a bunch of (inner) city states. The map will be red with a bunch of blue dots.
likely story.
ive got 40 million reasons why that wont happen.
Swing Blue: Texas, Alaska, Kansas, maybe Nebraska
Swing Red: New Mexico, Minnesota, Maine, maybe Delawere and Connecticut
Nj kansas louisiana and minnesota upcoming battlegrounds
. . .
You cant be serious about lousiana being a battleground after shreveport of all cities Flipped in 2023.
Also NJ I dont exsactly know where that ones comeing from but sure
Kansas and Minnesota I can see though.
@@Newbmannit’s because Trump claimed that he WILL win New Jersey and ofc his supporters believe him even tho Biden won New Jersey by 16% points. Similar to Illinois 17.1% point win for Biden.
@Newbmann mb I meant to say Virginia not Louisiana. I was watching a vid about Louisiana before this so it was in my mind. The Menendez situation In NJ is making the state realize what the democratic party really is and the polls are showing and trumps recent rally is too
NJ is like +20 dem
@@David-by4jf NJ is D+16
Are you going to come back and say you were wrong in November?
That’s literally his job raginrevenge1
Hawaii will swing if Tulsi ends up being Trumps VP.
new york?
I think you are mostly right. I would argue to switch out Utah for Kansas. Kansas is a state that could be more likely to swing closer to the left because of the growing metro areas of Wichita and Kansas City.
I think the same for Nebraska - Nebraska is centered around Omaha and Lincoln, and the rest of the state is very sparcely populated.
I see the GOP making gains among white/blue-collar workers in MN, WI, MI, PA, ME, and NY while making IL a swing state situation. However, I see Dem gains in AZ, NV, and TX, GA, and NC being a swing state. To simplify, I expect Dem gains in the southwest and southern Atlantic states with the GOP gaining the rust belt. I still see elections being highly competitive, but the demographics are changing to create greater racial and regional polarization.
This is a possibility especially with Arizona, Nevada and Georgia 🤨
Trump Maga 2024.Bless.
I think Maine could become swing state
Looking at the state of our country.. how anyone with a working 🧠 could vote for Biden is mind blowing🤯 , so happy I switched parties years ago.
I don't like neither of em. Give me one good reason to vote for Trump.
Biden2024
@@milogang3440For the sake of your safety, your history, your freedom and your country, If you are a Christian which i doubt your freedom of Worship is also at stake
@@milogang3440well for me I live in CA and I see how sick the Democrat party is in this state. It’s honestly evil. Not a good place to raise a child. Voting red saves us from this insanity.
@@milogang3440All that I want you to reflect on is how was your quality of life between 2016 and start of 2020. Compare that to your quality of life between 2020 and now. Was it better with Trump or Biden? Personally for me it was way better with Trump so therefore I’m voting for Trump.
I do think Texas will become a swing state by around 2030s or maybe 2040s. This is if Democrats can shift the Houston and Dallas suburbs so it becomes a swing state. Republicans are gaining ground with Hispanics in the Rio Grande Valley but the problem is that the Rio Grande Valley is not where the majority of Texans live and probably by the 2030s, or 2040s it will be maxed out.
@@JDuzzle Texas is not in play, the urban Hispanics are usually more liberal, the Miami Cubans might be an exception to the rule. I think the Texas suburbs will continue to shift left, southern Hispanics right. Is what it seems that is happening.
This video seems like a copy paste from the same battleground video from last year
Education level has very little to do with intelligence
Agreed, it has more to do with wealth
i would argue that there is a slight tendency for the more intelligent to avoid it at the moment.
@@kitkat47chrysalis95 True, college is more of an indicator of being a midwit
Keep telling yourself that! Keep hustling!
Education + life experience = intelligence
Trump fix
Without understanding why Utah is the way it is, you won’t understand why it stays red.
its the coffee that does it. BYU just doesnt have any good coffee shops on campus and the lack of coffee is turning the students red.
Dude really said, good luck conservatives (except you New Mexico :) )
It's the result of self imposed geographical sorting.
Trump 👌👌👌
WE LOVE YOU TRUMP
Полюбите и Байдена, если Вы настоящий христианин.
RFK Jr. might take both down..
He had the chance, but really dropped the ball with his "Middle Eastern" stance and his VP choice.
@@Xanatos_Clutch we all dont know on till nov
What would be your prediction when they kick biden out and Kennedy will be the democrat nominee?
Can they do that? Is there a way for them to actually do it?
@@TheBlockerNator they are democrats that do what they want
Would Kennedy even accept the Dem nomination, or keep running independent?
@@TheBlockerNatorYes. The Democratic Party is a private organization, so they don't even need to hold elections for their nominee if they don't want to. It's sort of the reason they have super delegates. That way, if Bernie wins the most delegates, they can make Hilary their nominee anyway.
@@ecthelion1735 He probably would. Being the democrat nominee gives him an actual shot at winning.
TRUMP 2024!
First 🎉
Biden, Biden, Biden!!!!
Dementia, Dementia, Dementia!!!
@@user-ft2zc5or9dI didn’t know Trump was so proud of his medical condition he decided to make it a chant 😭
@@Doughsz truly a swing-comments-section