WAY too many battery factories are being built in the US with the wrong batteries
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- เผยแพร่เมื่อ 19 ส.ค. 2023
- WAY too many battery factories are being built in the US with the wrong batteries
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A brand new battery factory that hasn't locked in raw material supply is not a factory. It's just a warehouse to store battery making equipment.
It is a work in progress.
Build a wing so carz made last year can be striped of rare earth parts and sent through again
No. @@Glenn-F-Rice
The climate hysteria crisis plan is to rape and pillage the deep-sea for these raw materials
Looking at government incentives😉
CATL are using the same manufacturing facilities to produce each version of improved batteries. The changes occur in the pre-production chemistry or anode/cathode production cells. Other battery factories are surely configured to achieve similar outcomes. You don’t invest $B without future-proofing the facility.
Absolutely right. This is really a non issue.
Correct. It is possible to convert an NCM line to LFP. However on automobile applications, the optimal cell format is often chemistry linked. For instance the optimal modern NCM high nickel, SiOx format is the cylindrical format while the LFP best format is the prismatic long and short blade formats (600 to 1200mm long). Therefore converting an NCM pouch cell line to an LFP blade line will be quite expensive...
Respectfully disagree. Business decisions are frequently wrong. Our Country’s energy policy, if you can say we have one is fragmented and often wrong. Subsidies funded by generational debt don’t make sense to me. Bad decisions are often funded by these subsidies provided by supposedly well intentioned politicians.
GM invests (taxpayer) $Billions with no plan for the future...
Who says so?@@FrunkensteinVonZipperneck
Hey Viking. This one really provoked some reaction. My first EV will not have ternary battery pack. Neither will I have a ternary pack at my house for home solar. Sooner they quit making ternary NMC/NCA in favor of LFP or LFMP ... the better.
Did you tell Ryobi? Makita? Boeing?
LFP -- home battery packs; or entry-level, low-range EVs/golf carts (China)
NCM -- low/med/long range/performance EVs, SUVs, Pickup-trucks (Rest of the world)
the sooner your realize your place, the better.
LFP has advantages but range and performance are not on the list. I'll take better range and a faster car over longevity, so NCM for me.
Agreed. We in the U.S. have put up a lot of barriers to doing business with CATL. I don’t see any problem with allowing battery tech from China to be licenced by U.S. companies or even allowing BYD and CATL to build factories here. We need to get this right because there is a lot of opposition to electrification here because of vested interests.
It won't matter in the end, even if US lowers barriers Beijing will jump in and put one up, the only reason they haven't is because Washington is already doing it for them.
Even without the tech war its not in China's interest to license critical tech to the US, with the tech war and chip war, there's every incentive for China to restrict American access to any and all competitive technology.
@@vlhc4642 they do it in europe and asia so not a real argument
And speed up petroleum falling price, and hurt petro dollar lol I don't think US government will love what will happen in the next few decades.
Wasn't the battery factory that was blocked earlier a CATL factory?
that's what happens when government values politics over environment and people's livelihood
Well in theory, there's a couple of years between now and when these new factories will be ready for tooling, so there is a chance that they could use this opportunity to optimize their tooling for the best chemistry available at that time. Will they take advantage of this opportunity? Most likely not.
I would think a battery factory producing NMC batteries could move to LFP or LFPM without have to retrofit that much of the factory. That's just the cathode, right? The biggest hurdle of getting the factory built, staffed, and running would have already been overcome.
Nmc nickel cathode
LMFP ( proven greater energy density than lfp ( jus by adding manganese) lithium cathode………
M3P # 1
I drove past the Kentucky Ford SK plant yesterday. (Just south of Elizabethtown). This plant is a monster. It is still growing while under construction. We may see 2 to 3 big advancements in battery technology while the plant is being built. Hopefully the battery manufacturing tools on the inside will be flexible enough to take advantage of these new chemistries.
No nickel NO COBALT plez. Nickel sides being TOO HEAVY IS TOO EXPENSIVE
>> We may see 2 to 3 big advancements in battery technology while the plant is being built.
Good points…thanks
"We may see 2 to 3 big advancements in battery technology while the plant is being built" To be successful in business you don't use the "Ready, Fire, Aim" strategy. Problem is start ups want to elbow their way into the battery space without any clear technical objectives, which is a recipe for failure.
Quite touching the Viking is inviting folks to kip at his during the event. What a top bloke.
Would you please translate that for those of us across the pond?
@@ncdave4life Hehe sure... "kip at his" = "sleep at his home", "top bloke" = "great fellow" :-)
@@liammullan2197 Gracias, amigo!
You may be underestimating future battery demand by focusing on cars. The transport sector includes semis, other trucks, trains and boats. However as the price falls the storage sector will quickly eclipse the transport sector. The demand for batteries may be almost insatiable.
The real choices will be between none Li technologies Na is on the way big time and the US sits ontop of 80% of the worlds known Na ash mine able reserves.
The real future batteries are going to involve sulpher and Al both of which will leave Li behind for larger batteries in a dozen different ways not least Li is a pain to produce and very limited in mineable quantities.. being very geographically limited and energy intensive.
As Prof Sadaway says investing in a lithium and or rare earth future is like investing in radio valves ...lifting the curtain to find piles of transistors..🤦🏻♂️
If energy storage gets even close to liquid fossil fuel densities say 8x now you can forget fossil fuels.
The other factor is it becomes a self enabling technology if you incorporate dispersed grid scale storage through easily available cheap recyclable chemistry batteries with life spans in decades ....
Building cars boats buses etc with Swappable batteries will be the normal because you dont want to junk the invested energy and materials just because someones tweaked the battery chemistry and come up with something better safer cheaper ...less polluting.
Al Sulpher based cells indicate they can already stand up to conditions that would destroy most Li technologies. The price is in tens of dollars per ton for Na and Sulpher compared to Li in the tens of thousands if the supply is even slightly squeezed.
A danger of the US adopting a national industrial policy is that decision-making is skewed to get the credits or subsidies. It is likely that this rush will result in waste in the form of unsaleable batteries with inferior chemistry materials.
@electricviking Tractor trailer trucks and big trucks that need the highest energy density batteries could soak up a crap ton of that "over supply" and add to that trains, short range aviation and boats and the potential demand for batteries is much higher than you think.
No. Tractor trailers will want to charge to 100%, that will drastically shorten the life of NMC
There are many uses for batteries. We haven’t even started on heavy machinery and other things that run on some type of fuel. The market for batteries is unlimited even for non state of the art ones.
Including the uses new technology has not even created yet
@@sparkysho-ze7nm Exactly, maybe I'll finally be able to buy a refrigerator with a backup battery.
Over investment isn't the problem, under investment is. I don't get his take here. I am more worried about enough lithium to supply all these factory's.
@@bp495599 I wouldn't invest in lithium right now. There will either be oversupply of it or batteries will no longer require as much if any over time.
The point is that if you have an option between a car with LFP or NMC you will choose LFP. And they are setting themselves up for that choice to be between a Chinese car and an American/German/Japanese car.
There does in fact need to be a rationalizaton of the battery factories. New breakthroughs leave many battery factories lagging behind. Those companies that get it right will make billions of dollars but those who get it wrong will lose billions of dollars!
The need for batteries is immense. Even factories that don't produce the least expensive, best batteries will find buyers as long as they have a decent product.
It is pretty straightforward to change the batttery chemistry. The basic fabrication techniques do not change.
@@rogerphelps9939 Not really. Dry battery electrode manufacturing is a huge innovation that requires factory upgrades/rebuilds.
Other than that, you are correct.
Nope. There will be MANY of the Batteries used in Battery Storage, where they don't have to be as mobile as in higher performance vehicles. PLENTY of Batteries are needed to improve Grid Resiliency and get people able to store Electricity at their residences and businesses.
Sodium Ion Battery - Tiamet news article - For projects on industrial production lines at gigafactories, there is no change to a production line except parameters such as speed or temperature, there is no modification needed, Reference "European manufacturing plan for sodium battery technology"
Interesting! I would actually prefer the new, 100% charge capability, LFPM battery even with lower energy density but a much longer life. I think it's crazy for Tesla to report mileage when the 80 % charge level produces 20% less range in reality! Give me the battery that is slightly less energy dense but can be fully charged every time without fear of reducing it's lifetime.
That is doable in the manufacturing process Now, long life compared to less range or long range to less life ,there is only essentially 2 or 3 main minerals I understand that make the EV lithium ion battery ,it's like mixing a cake recipe 😆
Current LFP batteries have that capability, it's not new technology. The CATL M3P LMFP (Lithium Manganese Ferro Phosphate) tolerate the same 100% charge on a regular basis. NMC/NCA batteries are about 25% more energy dense (kwh per kg) than current LFP batteries, the LMFP batteries are suspected of being only about 10% less energy dense than the NMC/NCA batteries.
The extra capacity may be more important than lifespan to some people who travel long-distance or want the ability to get to the Thunderdome when the SHTF, although maybe a more sensible prepper would prefer the rugged LFP for rebuilding civilisation.
Its all a numbers game but the numbers don't add up somehow, i got 16 to 32 bars to rock it, yet only 15% of profits ever seen my pocket. It's a numbers game but s**t don't add up somehow, they say it's the last straw that broke the camel's back, but here's the secret, there's a million other straws underneath it...
Mathematics mos def
It's time to stop this FUD about ternary batteries only being possible to charge to 80%. That is simply not true. If you are planning a long trip, you can easily charge to 100%. As long as you don't do that every day, you'll be fine. The vast majority of people do not need their full range very often. So just stop it. The full range is there if people need it.
Exactly why I said I am waiting on my GM Silverado EV is for THE Battery I think is state of the art. Your reviews like this tells me to wait....wait...wait.
GM uses the very dangerous Pouch Cell batteries called Ultium.
However, they are trying to switch over to a 4680 Tesla style round cell.
GM learned a very harsh lesson from the Pouch Cell batteries in the Bolt EVs.
Wait until the release of the Canyonero. A Simpson design.😊😅😂
@@malcolmrickarby2313 I've reserved the Marge Edition!
Since all these companies know LFP really well by now, they must know something that you don't.
What happens with end of life LFP? Landfill? There's no incentive to recycle it, because of the cheap materials in it. NCM is the clear winner in this case.
A second life as energy storage sounds nice, but isn't all that easy/profitable as it sounds.
There is much speculative in the video: 1) it depends on the structure of the financing and manufacturing set-up, if they are set-up properly, it doesn't necessarily put the parent companies at risk; 2) batteries may not be needed only for cars, given the massive incentives going forward for the transition to renewable power across the economy; 3) I can't speak to the technology and energy density and obviously companies that make the worst batteries will be the least competitive. But as I said, if the companies set-up the projects properly, they will be in separate subsidiaries, no guarantees or minimal for financing, and limiting liability from the parent to sustain the entity.
It is anticipated that a large amount of the batteries produced under the IRA will be used for renewable energy production. Batteries can be used to store energy generated by solar and wind power plants, which can then be used to power homes and businesses during peak demand hours. This can help to reduce reliance on fossil fuels and improve grid reliability. As you note, there are many very large incentives to buy the batteries made in America, and firms that follow those incentives most carefully can get up to 70% of the cost of converting to renewable power in tax incentives, which makes the projects effectively pay for themselves. So I'm not sure that the analysis addresses the potential for demand. Granted, best batteries are great, but are the materials available for Tesla to be the only supplier? It also seems unlikely that Tesla can supply all of the potential demand.
Thank you Sam!! This is arguably the most important video you have produced for prospective USA consumers! My take is if you want to buy an electric vehicle in the states that will still be in your garage 12 years from now, and has an actual working DC charging network, the only game in town for the next 12 months is a Tesla RWD model 3. I’ll be watching Volkswagen and Ford closely to see how their investment in LFP/LMFP plays out in the coming years.
The charging network might be less of an issue since Tesla released their connector patent and created the NACS standard, but there's no doubt that a full battery replacement is a financial time bomb for most people.
As ever changing battery technology improves
Pity you won't have option to buy BYD EVs any time soon
MG4 is a much better choice here in Oz
Also, only 40% of public chargers in the US are NACS,and,
90% of all ev charging events in the US atm are @ home,
thus, there is no need to paymore for the Tesla brand.
@@nordic5490that figure changes a lot if you are counting chargers that work.😊
I think the US should lift the barriers to doing business with Chinese battery companies. This would allow the US to access the best battery technology available and to build a domestic battery industry.
In addition to lifting the barriers to doing business with Chinese battery companies, the US government should also invest in battery research and development. This would help the US to develop its own battery technology and to become a leader in the global battery market.
>> I think the US should lift the barriers to doing business with Chinese battery companies.
You make some really good points! Seems as though it's an unfortunate forgone conclusion.
Battery cell costs will halve, then halve again. We know this because Wright’s law. The cost curve is similar to PV, small gains from performance, big gains from automation of production, right down the supply chain to raw materials.
Coal and oil are dead industries. Not a chance in hell of competing. Even outliers like long range flights and shipping it’ll be cheaper to make synthetic fuel using practically free solar. Everything else will use cheap batteries.
If batteries become cheap because of oversupply, it may be possible for every house to have a whole house UPS cheaply
1:24 Thought i agree with you for the first time. Bu then, you forgot about, that a batteryline can be switched and attuned to a different cemestry, dry coating and other good stuff, that makes a cell great. Just like Tesla did.
Nickel will be the prominent battery chemistry. There will also be LFP variants. There is already huge developments in Nickel chemistry such as single crystal process which addresses the issues of thermal stability and durability over multiple charge cycles also highlighted by Viking and has recently started mass production by LG for 4680 which will power cybertruck, semi and grid storage hence your oversupply will be absorbed by markets outside of EV’s
Of chem should stay outda semi an Ct….. scratching my head on dat comment don’t believe it
LG chem should stay out da CT………
Yup, that's a good point. After all Tesla is betting the farm on the 4680 wich is a ternary battery. Scratching my head here.
I've had the same thought for a year as Canadian government is picking "winners" like VW for crap battery plants.
For the continental U.S., approximately 230,000 GWh of storage will be needed to make the electrical distribution system reliable. That's a lot of batteries.
Henry Ford didn't push for horses to be banned. The ice was adopted widely because it was often better.
Thanks for putting so much into being objective.
Keep it real.
There has been a pre owned market beyond the warranty because there was viable life left in the vehicle.
There will be opportunity for mend and make good technology.
Finite resources have a diminishing access problem.
LFP has 3000 charge cycles before start to degrade from 100% charge, at 4500 charge cycle at 80% and 10,000 charge cycle at 60%. If you full charge once day will probably take 8 yrs for them to degrade from 100% capacity.. and they can be charged up to 100%, unlike NMC Lithium Ion... and also LFP burn less reactively unlike NMC battery. I am puzzled why the US chose to build NMC instead of LFP.
Having more battery manufacturing capacity than necessary to meet EV demand is fine: you need extra production capacity for powerwall/UPS/"AC generator" type applications, peak-shaving energy storage for DC fast-charging stations, utility-scale grid stabilization to reduce the need for peaker plants, all of the small engine stuff that is already going electric now and will only become more common over time, etc. The world demand for good batteries is a few times larger than just EV cars and trucks. I'd love to have an LFP-based UPS with a battery pack that lasts 10+ years instead of lead-acid batteries with an intrinsic lifespan of about six years regardless of how infrequently they come under load.
I might be missing something here. If you build the battery factory, you can change the batteries chemistry correct ? Does anyone think we will be using current battery chemistry in 7 years ?
well the issue is that we are building factories of batteries with older technology and higher price. even they also develop.the new technology in, say, 5 years. the question is can they survive those 5 years because CATL will start its mass production of its newset super charge battery which can give your car 400km range under 10 min charge. and without too much drop in cold weather. basically the problem is we invested so much money on something already outdated and we dont have the latest technology.
Seems logical
Battery chemistry don't come out from nothing... They need R&D money and others like CATL and BYD have patented the formulas.... And they are already researching next gen batteries
Wrong. 400km range is about 250 miles. At 4 miles per kwh the charge required is 62.5kwh. If this is delivered in 10 minutes the average charging power is 375kw. That is not going to happen.@@jk9876
@@jk9876if you own Tesla mega packs you don’t need 10 minute charge & almost any battery will do
That’s easily correctable, but what’s important to point out here is the giant is waking on manufacturing in America from now on
God bless America 🇺🇸
Lada was also committed to manufacturing in the Soviet Union.
@@vlhc4642 who cares! We don’t care about Soviet or China we mind our own business as you should do perhaps 🤔
God blessed America 🇺🇸
My beloved country
@@NC.237 Only if
@@NC.237lol, did you seriously just say that with a straight face?
I love your channel man I sit and watch most of them you are a literal legend
Supply chain management 🙃😁
Great channel. I have learned so much from the Electric Viking.
Awesome, thank you!
By th way WELCOME TO THE PAAAAAARDE 👍
Be careful with that learning. A fair amount of what he says is dubious. Some of it is just wrong.
@@xxwookey Thank you for your comment. I think it’s always a good idea to be diligent in these situations. Have a nice day.
Northvolt, a Swedish cie will open, close to Montreal Qc., a new factory to produce batteries because all of the components used will be supply by the mines are already in Québec. And they said that they will be able to change any of the anode & cathode materials if they need to do so.
Sam you nailed it and I totally agree with you I saw this Coming at the beginning of the year with all the advertising going on and make new plans in US it’s at Cetera.
Excellent analysis Sam! Nevertheless the inevitable succession of battery technology improvements has already been happening for many years and is likely to continue at even a faster rate going forward (think about how AI will be leveraged to engineer better battery chemistries & designs faster & cheaper). Keep in mind that this has been and will continue to be a good thing. Of course there will always be winners and losers when disruptive technologies emerge. The winners will be the battery makers and car makers that can pivot quickly. Pivoting doesn't just mean immediately switching to a new battery technology, it also means figuring out how to package and price the superseded battery tech in a compelling product to a niche market, likely at lower price, and still make a profit while the new battery tech ramps up. Look what Tesla did when they came out with the Model Y. Even though the Model Y cost less to build than the Model 3, Tesla deftly negotiated the supply & demand curve an sold the less expensive Model Y at a much higher price but still made a smaller but tidy profit selling the Model 3's at a lower price. Tesla is still making money selling Model S and Model X's using the most antiquated battery form factor. Tesla has clearly anticipated upcoming battery tech improvements for years now. It clearly no accident that Tesla has more "irons in the fire" when it comes to battery suppliers than any other auto maker and you can bet that any battery supplier seeking to maximize their profits on a new compelling product will and have been coordinating closely with the biggest EV auto maker. We can always count on supply and demand to dictate the selling price of batteries and EVs, so we might find compelling new-tech LFP EVs selling for more than some NMC EVs while the new-tech LFP batteries are ramping up. That will be a problem fo EV makers that are unable to pivot quickly. Tesla will continue to pivot as necessary in order to continue to produce compelling new and refreshed EVs at a profit. The other good news is that some people who bought older Teslas will find themselves lusting for the latest battery tech/performance and will sell their old Teslas to buy a new on, which in turn will put a larger supply of very good EVs in the used car market allowing people who can't afford a new Tesla to own one.
I pray ur right tytyty for ur comment
The whole rush to electric cars is ridiculous. The technology is changing so rapidly and has a lot of development yet. The world should be concentrating first on getting city commuter cars to be electric, especially in the Northern Hemisphere. This is where most gains can be made and reductions in air pollution for the vast bulk of people. Using huge quantities of batteries to build large vehicles is pretty much a waste. Governments would be better off getting houses/grid onto renewables - only then do electric cars really justify the environmental cost of producing them. We should also have recycling of the batteries sorted before sales! I live in a fairly small rural town. Our tip takes in car bodies and these are collected by recyclers with fairly crude equipment. I doubt very much that electric cars can be treated in the same way - yet as they get 10 years old the disposal of these will be occurring all over the place. People will just dump them. Sure they might be economical to dispose off in some places but I'll guarantee in a few years we'll be dealing with a large problem.
>> - yet as they get 10 years old the disposal of these will be occurring all over the place.
GM planned 4 battery factories; no plan to build 1 vehicle factory. Cray. With a capital Zee!
I ordered the one variant that had LFP, the Model 3 RWD, as the advantages seemed to outnumber the disadvantages by a lot. Like being able to charge to 100% (versus getting 20% more range and suffering degradation if charging above 80%), avoiding nickel and cobalt's environmental impact (having lived in Canada ten years, and knowing the extensive past impact of the Sudbury Ontario nickel smelter ), lowered risk of thermal runaway. Versus slightly lower energy density (but charging networks are infilling a bit each year, and more Airbnbs offer EV charging, so that's ever less an issue).
Ummm...... We just have to make a trillion flashlights. Sam, I just hope Australia wants a lot of flashlights.
Fascinating Sam! Very thoughtful and thorough. It makes sense to me. 👍
Glad you enjoyed it!
Quality sht tons of intelligent information tytyty
Keep up the good work mate, 👍
Thanks, will do!
I'm not sure you got all your facts right on this one, albeit, I agree with your overall sentiment. The Stellantis plant announced in Windsor was with LG, not Samsung.
"Stellantis and LG Energy Solution to Invest Over $5 Billion CAD in Joint Venture for First Large Scale Lithium-Ion Battery Production Plant in Canada"...from the Stellantis site. So maybe they're working with both?
Also, VW has talked about LFP batteries in conjunction with their investment in Gotion. It's hard to find the information, but I suspect they will produce LMFP batteries in North America.
Home battery packs can charge when demand is low and discharge it when demand is high. That helps stabilize the power grid without additional power plants. A plant can always change to make more than one chemistry or type of battery. The USA is refusing to be dependent on our military and economic competitor for such a major chunk of our future economy.
What you are neglecting to consider is that, in moving to the renewable age, sufficient battery supply is absolutely essential . The market will determine which chemistry will prevail. And yes, that prevailing technology will change over time.
China is more than half of global EV market and the market has already determined who will prevail.
@@vlhc4642 NO PARTNER SHOULD EVEN CONSIDER CHINA AS A SUPPLIER...CHINA GAVE WUHAN VIRUS TO OUR WORLD..WHAT TRUST ???? LIES CHEATS AND STEALS TECH FROM MANY NATIONS...STOP DEALS WITH THEM PERIOD!
@vlhc4642 How is your Betamax VCR doing these days ?
@@SomeTechGuy666 You know Betamax lost to VHS precisely because the world's largest home video market at the time chose VHS due to it's ability to record football?
>> The market will determine which chemistry will prevail. ...
Are you sure the North American factories that you are referring to are locked in to producing NMC and NCA batteries rather than LFP?
>> Are you sure the North American factories that you are referring to are locked in to producing NMC and NCA batteries rather than LFP?
@@tooltalk I hear you re the current characteristics of LFP batteries, but BYD and CATL are increasing their energy density, and they have added advantages of being safer, fully charging, and longer lasting than today's NMC batteries.
@@jamesbensonjazzguitar4824 No problem. NCM8/9's energy density is nearly twice that of LFP and they already cost lower than LFP in raw material cost. And by 2025, there would be over 300 GWh new NCM capacity in the US, so there will be no supply shortage problem here.
LFP's main selling points are their lower cost, largely made possible by ample supply. LFP's contrary to popular belief can not be charge fullly to 100% without degrading the battery and reducing its lifecycle -- Tesla's and other EV OEMs recommends charging to 100 frequently because of LFP's memory effect and inaccurate SOC reading, but this does damage your battery. LFP's also catch fire quite frequently when they operate at high C-rates -- ie, EVs, which is why LFPs are strictly limited to entry-level, low-range EVs. Those low-cost, low-range EVs work for China, but the US has different driving needs -- they drive bigger and longer.
If they end up with surplus batteries that are not suitable for EV use. They will have to find alternative markets to sell them onto. Such as domestic power walls and aftermarket upgrades to ICE conversions.
By design due to laws and incentives. If there are too many or it becomes obsolete, then the politicians will forget there were laws and incentives that caused so-and-so. I remember when they asked a President many years ago about businesses decrepitating too much equipment - president didn't know why, when he gave a speech 2 years earlier talking about the new rule being a hallmark of a law he signed.
The factories can easily by retrofitted to build different types of batteries. Automobile factories change continually to produce new models.
Do not forget that when gasoline/diesel engines are banned, every vehicle on the road, farm, and even the sky will need battery power. All trucks due to the weight they haul will require massive amounts of batteries. Trains, a car battery pack will not work, again massive amounts of batteries. Just think when all ICE's are banned, every tool, think chainsaw, lawn mower, leaf blower, etc. will need batteries. I do not see a future where there will be to many batteries because most of these applications outside cars will work just fine with Li-ion batteries. As time passes they can phase in new chemistries that function better. But for the immediate future getting rid of ICE's is the prime directive.
Once again, a fabulous informative video
Glad you enjoyed it!
Good report.
Agree 100%. The industry are moving away from ternary cells. Lifepo4 much safer, much longer lifespan, getting closer in energy density.
These factories are being built because there's demand and there will be increasing demand of the older lithium batteries as replacement battery packs are increasingly needed for older EVs that need replacement battery packs.
Yes, these factories will have a huge supply of the current battery chemistry materials...BUT, IF they can use most of the machinery that they have only need to acquire the materials to make the better/newer batteries, then they are not completely out of luck.
Swedens Northvolt is also only building NMC, I expect thermal events in cars soon....
If you have the manufactioring facilities and find out it's the wrong substance in it you can allways switch to other ingridiences in them but the facility is there and the machinery
Turnary batteries might not be the best choice for grid level storage, but they work "fine" for domestic, and if there is an over supply then the prices will match that.
The problem is that is hasnt been till recently ( the last decade) that there has been significant rapid development of rechargeable batteries on a commercial scale like there is now, so there will be a rapid but long road of improvements, some can be worked into existing production methods, some probably will need new methods. but you have to start using the technology some where.
Old tech isnt always obsolete, pricing dictates its place in the market
>> Turnary batteries might not be the best choice for grid level storage, but they work "fine" for domestic, > Old tech isnt always obsolete, pricing dictates its place in the market
Electric Viking…hope you and your family are well. Have you done any videos on silicon anode batteries? There are a couple out there that are in production.
I think the problem is more about the pouch cell design.
Correct MAJOR. Problem
The US has always demonstrated incredible innovation. Once they get into making batteries they will quickly adjust to market conditions.
Not this time. Oil industry will drag it
How ironic is it that China is now leading the world in innovation. I guess that opinion makes me a “commie”.
I am afraid that politics is strangling innovation nowadays
Hopefully the equipment needed to make the batteries can be used to make batteries of different chemical compositions. Tesla is in the same boat too.
Tesla is da gd BOAT powered by a model s motor 20 years ahead of th game an PULLIN AWAY
It can. All these batteries are made the same way: smear goop onto separator. You can smear different goops and get different chemistry. So yes a load of different batteries can (at least in principle) be made with the same machinery/factory.
So Sam's whole argument her is essentially bollocks. It's just his usual LFP boosterism.
With a lot of these battery manufacturing projects, there is probably time enough to change their minds and make LMFP batteries instead.
…… never heard of them
Google and Alphabet have LMNOP battery chemistry!
FORD and CATL battery deal is for LFP battery chemistry....Just a FYI
Well said! This segment answers a number of questions I have about the new battery factories which are going to be built in North America. If the batteries are really that much less competative that the new CATL batteries then there will be a lot of EVs sitting on the legacy dealers lots. This is what is happening to Ford now with the Mach-E.
>> . This is what is happening to Ford now with the Mach-E.
Getting the staffing is going to be difficult in areas where McDonalds are offering higher wages .😅
@@malcolmrickarby2313 : that's b/c the battery manufacturing is highly automated; youa re getting paid like a security guard b/c that's the type of work you would doing on the factory floor: just babysitting big machines. All those McDonalds jobs require some physical effort.
Batteries are needed in more than cars. Farm tractors, trucks, boats, busses, locomotives, and locomotives to name some.
The batteries factories will be able to change which type of batteries they are making, if they need to.
scottb7 • Correct. There's no other way. You can adapt the production line to use any new battery technology like different geometries and chemistries, semi-solid electrolyte, solid state, etc , but you need first the buildings erected and the lines to be working.
Doing nothing is not a solution.
I’m not sure that’s how it works but I could be wrong.
Some of the battery companies may not have the necessary LFP tech and IPs.
After being sued for batteries catching fire.
@@PeterXiao1yeah but the ones that do can refit a plant of a failing company
The issue I see coming up is that grid storage batteries are gonna be a lot heavier and cheaper with completely different chemistries and sizes than regular li ion and lifpo4
Some factories will be able to refit for aircraft density lithium ion batteries which will be in use in the next 5 years
The question is how much miles a car needs. I used to buy 2-3 year old ICE cars since 1995 and drive them a long time, maybe give them to family members. So cars stay a long time in the family and we can see how old they get with good maintenence.
Some ICE run for 300-400.000 in 17-19 years, one was 24 years old with 240.000 kms and still ok. But here is the point: these cars get hopeless outdated, especially in Europe. Their bad milleage and high tax due to pollution makes their upkeep expensive. Some are also difficult to get spare parts.
So at a certain point you need something new as a daily driver even when the car is in a overall good condition. And this may happen to EVs also, maybe a bit later. But when new EVs with a better milleage or intresting features like highly efficent solar roofs on the market or energy costs rise, you may think twice about the EV you bought 15 years ago.
This happen to all things. So I am not very intrested in a battery which would last a million kilometres, when I could get a 300.000-400.000 km lifespann battery way cheaper.
Panasonic batteries are excellent. I've never had one leak and they last longer than anything else
Totally agree! I'll go further and state that any lithium based battery is a 5 year dead end. We should be focusing on sustainable batteries that utilize common elements and that can be easily recycled (there are several candidates with higher energy densities under development).
For cars, it doesn’t matter what the battery chemistry is the level 3 fast chargers are more broken than not.
Tesla maintains it’s NACS stations with reliable alacrity. It get’s irritating after a while.
I’d expect all those factories can adjust their assembly lines for the type of battery the want to produce. Just lie the car companies adjust their assembly lines every few years.
I agree with you that if they are starting with less valuable battery technology, that seems like a missed opportunity. Having batteries at all will be valuable. Let’s let them get started and see how they innovate.
Like using manganese doped LFP BATTERIES 18650 369 2170 4680 9369 or 6981
Given the current track record of embracing changes, the news of tomorrow on battery manufacturing won't be good for USA
There will be lots of unfinished plants & closures
The "problems" of too many battery factories and too much wind and solar power...
I'm sure we can find a use for them.
It shouldn't be that difficult for battery factories to update the chemistry of the cells they are manufacturing.
The real problem is that CATL (and China in general) is moving much faster than LG Chem, Panasonic and US in general. Just a few years ago, CATL battery was cheaper but generally considered inferior in every way. But just within these few years, CATL batteries are practically better in almost every way. Meanwhile, almost nothing happened in CATL’s competitor. That’s the core problem no amount of money print is going to solve.
>> The real problem is that CATL (and China in general) is moving much faster than LG Chem, > . Meanwhile, almost nothing happened in CATL’s competitor. That’s the core problem no amount of money print is going to solve.
@@tooltalk Not interested in arguing with someone who has “CCP” in first sentence in their argument because I haven’t met a single person who use “CCP” that can view anything China objectively. Good luck & we’ll see in 10 years from now.
@@hakuhyo174: LOL, are you sad that the Viking is a CCP paid shill? LOL
I doubt this will be a problem. They should be able to modify their manufacturing processes. It's just like designing and making a new car. Probably easier. They would have factored in change of technologies. They have been doing this for years with the same battery factories. Also with state of the art programable robotics, I doubt it will be a major concern. Just don't see a major issue here.
I think that you have not considered 3 important facts.
1.- Battery factories can change and adapt and change their production lines to other battery chemistries and types, they ate not stuck to one and only one battery type.
2.- The rest of the world, south america, central america, south pacific, india, and why not, other countries in east europe, all of them are behind in the electrification race and will catch up eventually consuming any excess battery production.
3-. There are other untapped markets that are going to explode eventually, like heavy tranportation trucks (tesla lowry competence), mass transportation buses, commercial delivery vans, marine applications, light and heavy, and why not, air transportation and too many more to describe here.
But you get the idea, there is no shortage in potencial battery consumers.
In reality large economic decisions need to be economically viable and proven at the time. Its great to say these factories need to have the latest in Chinese tech, but its impossible to get large amounts of capital for this scenario. IMHO US industry needs to build, then innovate future generations from there over decades.
Thanks for pointing this out
Any time
Automotive isn't the largest TAM. Grid storage is what they're building these factories for.
Great video Sam. Enjoy the Melbourne EV show and catching up with your mates.
This is very true unless they can truly get NCM chemistries with higher energy density, seems like SK innovation and Samsung, and Panasonic seem to have no interest in LFP/ LFPM, also sourcing from Canada will be crucial for the future, which seems to be slow, legacy auto except for ford I guess have been slow to switch to LFP, they all want to target ‘maximum range’ for customer advertising and cold weather performance, but LFP you get to charge to 100% vs NCM only 80%, energy density has to be AT least 30% higher in NCA vs LFPM
Which big supply chain management entities and OEMs will be left behind by batteries 2.0?
It seems like CATL is still stuck at NCM811 b/c of numerous recalls (ie, fires) while the rest of the industry, especially the Korean trios, moved on to ultra-nickel NCM/A. That being said, LG did announced last year that they are also building a LG plant in AZ, US for ESS applications.
>> LFP you get to charge to 100% vs NCM only 80%, energy density has to be AT least 30% higher in NCA vs LFPM
It's too late!!! Ford just received $9.2 billion from the Energy Department and GM received $2.0 billion to build battery factories in the USA.
Lots of the ones with issues are the pouch batteries. Not clear from this which ones have those.
I am not a fan of glued together 4680 packs. One faulty cell and the entire pack needs to be replaced. That is the definition of poor design.
that goo did look tough to deal with. they should still be able to isolate a bad cell I would think. dk if they would go through hassle to do it tho. @@nordic5490
The batteries can be used for grid energy storage when made in quantity.
Aggreed that better batteries are the heart of better EVs
GM helped fund Mitra Chem for specifically for the purpose of coming up with a good LFP or LMFP by 2025, which they plan to be the Ultium II cells. And GM has already stated that Ultium cells are chemically agnostic, meaning same form factor pouch and same machinery for a different cell chemistry. And since GM owns 50% of Ultium, it is only logical that GM would not have a signed a contract that required them to produce only LCM cells.
In addition, the GM's 3rd factory won't be ready until after Ultium II cell planned release date.
I completely agree. A lot of people in the comments here are missing the point, these factories are going to be producing price and tech competitive batteries. Innovation and iteration is going at a breakneck speed, and these companies are not gonna license their top of the line stuff. They make more money, at better margins, selling the product.
Would be so good to meet up at the car show/house, unfortunately we will still be in London. Have a great time everyone
This is likely due to money managers being in charge. When I built my ebike 3 years ago, I specifically looked for an LFP battery. Yes I paid a small premium on both cost and weight, however the number of charge cycles & much lower risk of thermal run away were well worth the costs.
I was a hobbyist researching his own components and was able to get to this point & my budget was
the big car companies all have a line to the gov bailout desk. a few billion is barely a blip on the radar regarding their debts.
For manufacturers who always has planned obsolescence in mind ternary battery is what they love, due to less durability and high probability of failure after warranty period ended.
Thanks so much Sam
You are so welcome!
What about the canoo battery plant in Pryor OK, US.
Ford is partnering with CATL to build a factory in the USA. While I haven't looked at the contract, I can't imagine that it doesn't include the right to newer battery designs as they become available. To lock in production of current tech without an upgrade path would be idiotic.
We still have to replace several million diesel trucks for Canada, US and Mexico. Until this need is substantially addressed there will be a HUGE deficit of batteries.
>> We still have to replace several million diesel trucks for Canada, US and Mexico
(1) How hard is it to convert these factories to Sodium Ion Batteries Manufacturing circa 2028 thru 2032? (2) US has the supply of soda ash in Wyoming - 30% world wide comes from Wyoming and 70 % domestic (3) Look at the format of the Tiamat battery (4) Excess capacity could be used for residential storage to get rid of peaking plants