Monetizing Modern: The Profitability of Power Creep
ฝัง
- เผยแพร่เมื่อ 7 ก.ค. 2024
- Modern Horizons 3 just released and along with it came a brand new Modern format. Your old favorite deck is probably dead or in need of hundreds of dollars of updates. Why does this happen every time a direct to Modern set releases? Here's my theory...
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#Opinion #MTG #magicthegathering - เกม
Something about “next year Marvel and Final Fantasy will rotate Modern again” makes me deflate like a balloon
It's one thing when the one ring and orcish bowmasters become staples, but Tony Stark and Cloud Strife being two of the best creatures in the format is not something I'm looking forward to
@@retronymph im definately picking up my fortnite lands for when thanos drops
@@retronymph With our luck, Wizards will make some B-tier characters into the most powerful cards in Modern. That Mr. Negative and Tonberry combo will be off the hook though…
@@lucidlullaby894 maybe they'll include LOTR reprints in all UB sets as a play booster throw in.
@@retronymph i want a Kirby dreamland UB or smurfs so I can "magic"
The MH3 tagline "your new forever-favourites" is even funnier if you consider how often modern now rotates
I know. Were in the assassins creed format now 😂
I actually found it kinda offensive tbh.
Irony cannot be lost
@@Leuber idk I've heard the Goldfish crew say that cards that are a year old are iconic because they see play now...
The appeal of modern was having a non-rotating format with different cards that were affordable, but still powerful. Both didn't succeed. Don't get me wrong, modern was pretty fun for a while and it still can be sometimes. However, the whole idea of the format failed.
We are down to pre-modern now as one of the few non-rotating formats that is still powerful. Vintage cube even has some rotations, though that isn't that bad of a turnover if you only need to buy a few cards and only one of each card. Also, it is perfectly fine using proxies in an offline cube, we don't even need real magic cards in it to play.
Seth casually getting some more miles out of that Ragavan art.
It's one of my favorites lol
“Sheoldred, the Apocalypse” has an anagram for “shareholder” in there somewhere and both of them slowly drain the joy out of Magic.
As said on Faithless Brewing podcasts, modern is now for the content creators, not players.
My group has come to call it "rotation tax" and it makes me feel bad as someone who really loved modern before all this started happening.
That's sad though, if Modern is just for content creators I don't think it will survive for long.
@@MTGGoldfish the amount you guys have been talking about the format on the podcast for the past month, while it's becoming more and more niche in the meantime, certainly points to this. Fortunately we're back to spoiler season now so the Modern talk can probably be put on hold for now.
Horizons and Universes Beyond pushed most of our modern players out of the format in our LGS. It was only until last month that we decided to play our own format without horizons or UB.
After a bit, the LGS started supporting it
I really like this idea. The best formats are the ones wotc isn't paying attention to or can't mess up.
If it really takes off internationally I’ll be astonished. Feels like a format that wotc would not be anxious to support in any way.
How has it been without Horizons or UB?
I'm for banning all UB sets but I like 80% of modern horizons cards. 😅 If you ban all MH you lose things like Thought Monitor and Kappa Cannoneer making affinity pretty hard to build.
I just think the ban list needs to be much larger and players should be the ones who decide what's too dumb for the format, not WotC. WotC is very obviously compromised by both insider trading and because they want to sell packs. They are therefore unfit to make B&R decisions because they will always prioritize profit over the health of the game or format.
Our LGS has a hard on for oathbreaker and you know what? It’s a solid format!
At what point does the game have to reset because the power creep is too much, and we have to go back to playing with Mogg Fanatics and Savannah Lions?
That'll take... quite a long time. A good framing is "how powerful can a 1 mana spell be" and there's theoretically no ceiling on that power.
In theory, that's what standard is. For other formats, they don't, they just make another pioneer every 8-9 years
@@DylanHunter64 If they moved pioneer from RTR to GRN it wouldn't change much
If Yugioh has lower power fan created formats in Goat and Edison, so can MtG.
@@irou95 GRN?
How long can this cycle continue before the consumers get tired of it? Magic players can be squeezed more than any other consumer base seemingly.
Chances are eventually the format will go the way of legacy and everyone will switch to pioneer
@@astarte768 and then Pioneer Horizons is rolled out
Everyone I know used to play paper legacy, then the lands started creeping up go 200 each and the format slowly faded into what it is now.
I give it another year and a half
People are already making a format with no UB and MH cards
I predict we will see a new format rise in popularity soon. Modern-minus. Modern, but with no direct to modern sets allowed. We don’t need a reset. We as the players get to decide how we want to use the game pieces we buy. The only thing required to return to the joys of OG modern (and not break our wallets) is to keep wizards from fucking with it directly.
Premodern is interesting because it's a fixed format. WOTC can never interfere by printing new cards for it. So much creativity and innovation, it will surprise you.
Without official support, I doubt it will. People might just start treating it as the new legacy and slowly trickle to Pioneer if things get too bad, but the lack of Reserved List ensures cards remain available, even if a $30 Phlage or $100 One Ring cost as much as a board game for 4+ people.
True extended
@@amatheuslci like how people are complaining about the ring being 100 when Gofy used to cost 200
@@TheEvolver311 Counterpoint, it took 6 years for Goyf to hit the ring's currrent price. It came out last year and has licensing issues for reprinting.
At peak popularity, looking at MTGTop8, Goyf was "only" the 3rd most played creature. Birthing Pod, Affinity, Twin, Titan all went without. The One Ring is the most played nonland card in the entire format right now (a lot of it courtesy of MH3 and Nadu). It might as well be today's Goyf in terms of ubiquity. As far as draw engines go, Bob, at his peak, had a little over half of the popularity of the ring rn.
Also, by the time Goyf hit $200, it had "only" came out in three sets: Future Sight, in 2007, and Modern Masters, the original and the 2015 one, both at mythic. The first one came out when MTG was a much smaller game (Commander wasn't a thing to popularise with hordes of casual players) and the second one came out in a "niche" product.
The One Ring came out in one of the best selling products Hasbro ever made with a lottery ticket chase and wide casual appeal. The Ring was guaranteed with the gift bundle. There must be tons more copies of it than Goyf had at peak price. Now imagine how expensive it'll be in a year or two.
This is what pushed me out of modern. It started to get embarrassing showing up each week at my LGS just to get curbstomped by the MH1 and then MH2 cards I couldn’t afford. I really miss being able to enjoy the format with others
That'd what commander is for. Any competitive format, just play online as it is far cheaper than buying a paper deck that rotates once a year.
@@Logan-lz5gu Commander isn't much better. There are continuously more expensive cards printed into the format to keep up with, and on top of that you have to ensure your deck remains socially viable for multiplayer in addition to matching everyone else's powerlevel... you still need to buy an awful lot of cards.
@@Logan-lz5guuntil a rich guy shows up playing OG dual lands, moxes and stuff like that. Commander is Vintage singleton, it's not cheap at all, or you're just signing up to get lynched.
@@RafitoOoO you just kick that player out of your playgroup or ask them to play a different deck. Not everyone plays cedh or the most optimal builds
@@RafitoOoOtechnically it's Legacy Singleton. The Power 9, save Time Twister, last I checked. So yeah, it's literally missing the most important cards that make Vintage Vintage.
It’s inspiring, and sad to see Seth talking about this.
No typical cheerful introduction either - but given the context I respect the decision to leave it out. I agree 100%. I’ve had to rotate my deck multiple times in the past few years. Sad to see.
Well Seth can still do his job, play magic and make magic content and still be unhappy about certain trends. This is maybe the most frustrating part about Magic: the money part that negatively inlfuences the game, the players and the brand as a whole. I'm talking the lack of affordable cards, but also the decisionmaking to 'monetize' certain formats and playstyles.
Time to break off a new format that's exactly like modern but without any direct-to-modern sets being legal in it
So basically pioneer?
@@DragonAttack515 modern has over 10 years worth of standard legal sets that is not legal in pioneer.
im developing a new format that is Mirrodin - Shadowmoor and 8/9/10E called premythic modern.
Premodern is the best community format.
No cards after 2020 unless repeat?
"Consume next product"
Saffron Olive when MH1 wad announced celebrated WotC caving into players demanding a direct to Modern product for years. Maro even said specifically that the development team didn't want such a thing because of what it would do to forever change the format. 😊
Exactly, everyone's having a problem with this business model yet they keep buying and supporting it.🎉🎉🎉🎉
@@TheEvolver311 Direct to modern may not have been that bad if it was mostly about support cards for low tier decks, and a high power modern horizons draft. But a lot of the good cards are just generically better than old cards and expensive. The more staples you have to include, the more deckbuilding feels like a chore to me.
@rossmcbeath4997 what is funny is that for the most part all the MH sets have bolstered lower tier decks or built new archetypes. The real problem is thatit is impossible to with intention design cards for play in Modern without invalidating almost everycard in the format and many of the format staples that existed prior to MH1. Modern had been comprised of mostly power outliers from standard "mistakes", so at its floor for playability in Modern is busted standard cards. So any set designed go straight into Modern must at least be at that floor level and that means anything even slightly higher than that floor is going to wash away those standard mistakes. So they actually kind of did what you wanted it's just that even that rendered all previous strategies dead.
Because the set you described sounds like a failure that Modern players would have been irate over WotC producing since it was a multi year player lead push to nag WotC to make a direct to Modern set in the first place. And players didn't want weak sauce go watch Saffron Olive or Pleasant Kenobi's MH1 announcement videos. "Victory laps for the players" if you want the short. And yes players knew that format warping cards were very likely because WotC had already been making them for Legacy I Commander products with cards like TNN and Modern players specifically were demanding those kinds of new cards for Modern. Players were mad that "WotC treats Modern players with kids gloves and won't let us have these new cards that Legacy gets to use", and now they are crying "why did you give us exactly what we had been demanding, despite WotC warning us over and over again"
@@TheEvolver311just because he celebrated it he can't change his mind?
I remember going to my LGS on modern night 10 years ago and having over 20 players each week. Now they are lucky to even get 8 players.
10 years ago there were 64 player tournaments at my LGS, the store couldn't fit any more and had to turn away players over that number. Now the few commander players that are there rarely go over 4-5. Basically every other constructed format is dead and there is only the occasional 6-7 player draft and maybe two players that are into pauper.
@@stevsomeguy07 5 round modern, 3 days a week was a thing in NE Ohio. now every store just has open commander nights 24/7 , I don't participate
Yo is that a blood moon telecaster?
Ha, yeah! It's custom from Franz Vohwinkel who did the Blood Moon art. It's super cool!
@@MTGGoldfishDamn that's even cooler than it appears at first blush
Thats what i was looking at that guitar is sweet. Very nice art and the red is great color too.
Gurmag Angler did more to drop Tarmogoyf's price than all of the reprints combined.
Join the pauper bandwagon everyone. We just love playing magic
Shadow wizard poverty gang
we love casting spells
You don’t want that. The whales that ruined other formats will bring WOTC’s Ire, and they will ruin your format like they did commander and modern
@@ryanbolson23the first rule of Pauper Club is don’t talk about Pauper Club
Mythic commons incoming
TOO SLOW, unfortunately. Could be standardish speed at least.
What if we had a "standard sets only" version of Modern? There would still be an amount of power creep as new good standard cards are printed, but it might be closer to matching the pace of modern in the past.
I think it could be interesting to try for sure. I've heard of some people doing it at their local game stores and it catching on, so it seems like it could be a real thing.
@@MTGGoldfish The only problem is that can never be the most popular way of playing Modern. If direct-to-modern sets actually hurt the playerbase enough to lose them profits, they'd just print stuff like Symulacrum Syntesizer, Pest Control, Leyline of the Guildpact, Agatha's Soul Cauldron and Beseech the Mirror more often.
Players complained at WotC constantly about that pace of new card entry. We players complained at WotC to give us these sets and players celebrated WotC caving into those demands.
Ah yes, corporate greed.
This is why WotC doesn't get ANY of my money anymore. There should never be a "black border" card that skips Standard. If a card is too strong for Standard, it's too strong for Magic.
Well said.
Brainstorm wasn't notably powerful in standard. Synergy with fetchlands made it good. That's what old formats should be about.
@@JohnFromAccounting Agreed. That's why its frustrating to see cards like Nadu printed-- cards that are simply broken at face value and not due to the interactions with Magic's long history. Makes for a brain-dead Magic experience. But those brain-dead cards are much easier to develop and at the pace Wotc is moving at these days, that's all they can manage.
@@spencerbell8386 I mean, Nadu is broken specifically due to interactions with Magic's long history. That was a bad example. Nadu works specifically because a card like Shuko exists, an innocuous, seemingly garbage tier equipment that just happens to have a free targeted activated ability. Obviously Wizards knew Shuko existed in Modern, but still. The card is considerably weaker without Shuko, maybe not even good enough to see play considering all the other broken stuff in Modern.
Anyway, my preferred example is The One Ring, arguably the most broken card in the last 20 years of Magic, fits into practically every deck and makes the vast majority of them much better, requires no other pieces, and Wizards gets no benefit of the doubt on this one because unlike the power 9 it isn't accidentally broken, it isn't broken because they just haven't figured out how to assess a card's power level yet, it's specifically engineered to be so broken you have to buy it, and I'm 99% certain Wizards knew as they designed it that they would inevitably ban it in the future. That's the part that stings the most. It isn't technically fraud, since we know Wizards reserves the right to ban cards. But they also know that sales are predicated on the expected value of the product, in which longevity is a factor. There's sort of an implicit promise there, particularly for an allegedly "eternal" format. And probably the only reason the card hasn't already been banned is that Wizards doesn't want to be seen to break that promise too egregiously. Would be wise to find the optimal balance between format health and sales credibility, and basically drag it out for as long as necessary to maintain the illusion that bans are unexpected.
Maybe I'm more cynical than Wizards' product managers are, but I think not.
Right there with you. Left Modern and never looked back. WOTCs exploitation of its player base has gotten so egregious in recent years. I’m happy to spend money on a hobby, but not most of my hobby budget on one hobby.
Now I play commander and premodern and just treat magic as the board game I pull out of the closet from time to time, instead of a never-ending, wallet-milking chase it’s been recently.
I stopped going to FNM for modern years ago because of power creep. Just wasn't worth constantly buying new cards just to keep up 1-2 times a year. Modern is already legacy-lite nowadays, but it rotates like standard as well.
Standard: "Look at me, I rotate the fastest!"
Alchemy: "Uhm, excuse me, not so fast!"
Modern: "hold my beer..."
I'm so glad that i am mostly a Cube player and whenever a new set drops, i upgrade or change my cube a bit, maybe wait for prices to drop since i am in no rush and often the jank rares that don't find a home in constructed are the fun ones in draft that are nice build-arounds and go for 20 cents
It's funny you mention scammy video games from EA etc, with pre-orders and endless microtransactions because that is the exact model WOTC is using to monetize D&D. They have put forward a tiered pre-order list with bonuses based on which inflated price you pay. One of the bonuses for the higher tiers is literally getting the handbooks 2 weeks early. This is also reliant on signing up for the increasingly expensive D&D Beyond platform to be allowed to pay for this preorder. D&D Beyond of course is a monthly subscription service that is stacked with microtransactions for a bunch of useless bullshit cosmetics. They had one of the most rabid player bases willing to actually pay full price for their rule books for years... and now there is a huge amount of people who are going to go straight out and get the PDF that gets posted everywhere the day the pre-sale happens. WOTC is so good at legitimizing proxies, copies and counterfeits of their game pieces through mismanagement.
DnD players have the advantage over magic players thought that they basically need none of WOTC stuff to play the game; and no one (other than wizards), cares if people own the physical stuff. People play outside the purview of wizard events 99% of the time and a game store isn't going to stop people from playing DnD if that person doesn't own a PHB, or force restrictions on characters because they don't own the right supplement.
My friend and DM has every 5e book and we are not switching to One D&D. Everyone is content continuing with 5e and we mostly play in a homebrew world anyways. My friend only has all the books because he wanted to have the full collection after getting about half of the books.
@@bossman4799 Not to mention that most of the changes can easily be ported into regular 5e if a playgroup likes some of the changes and wants to implement them
I'm really interested and kind of scared to see where this goes. WotC has hilariously printed themselves into a corner. They lost Standard as a format awhile back, and since then, using a system of rotation to fuel their bottom line has not been effective, until they have started rotating Modern and Commander. However, we as the consumers don't have to allow this. I see people saying "I play Cube, and Cube can outlive the printing of new cards entirely". Many players continue to play their old cards, either through Commander or through fan-made formats, and forgo many newer products. While WotC can't allow this, they allow can't prevent it.
As a budget player, I can only spend so much money on the game. At this point, even if a new set came out every day, WotC won't make any more money off of me, since I have no more to give. The acceleration of product releases is definitively incapable of addressing this problem, because the community has a finite amount of money. Once the releases outstrip your ability to spend... you give up spending. I think the only answer is actually backwards.
By hitting the brakes on the releases, and selling fewer products, WotC could save money by not having to produce as much product. Fewer sets is fewer bills. These sets would also likely sell better since players wouldn't choose between this month's set and next month's set. The products wouldn't cannibalize each other. However, this tactic would serve to only stabilize their business, not grow it. They wouldn't be able to report "record profits", because they wouldn't be breaking records, they would have merely stabilized. This may be more healthy in the long term, but does not appease the hungry beast that is shareholders and corporate overlords.
The final thesis question to consider is posed to WotC, the shareholders, and the corporate overlords at Hasbro:
"Do you really think that profits can go up forever?"
Spoiler Alert: They can't. Learn from the story of Icarus, and don't fly too close to the sun, or you will go from taking all of our money to never getting another penny from anyone.
It's funny to see Wizards going the other direction in Standard and trying to slow down rotation.
Great post here. The infinite growth mindset is nothing but a fad. Nothing can grow forever, no market can absorb this amount of product and magic as a brand cannot continue to make more money continiously every year. Eventually the shore will break the ship that is trying to ram through it.
This brute force method of overproducing low quality, high power-level sets isn't going to last long. The trend isn't even that players quit the game in disgust, although that certainly happens, the trend is that players slowly turn to formats that they can no longer monetize, or will have an amazingly hard time doing so.
Magic will exist for a long time, easily for many decades, possibly even hundreds of years, but WotC will not. They will no longer be able to exist if they keep going this way, it is unsustainable long term.
Unless they somehow turn this ship around and it is not too late, they might be able to at least exist for part of the enormous time that Magic will remain playable. Or they go the way of the dodo and we will see other companies eventually take over the license and reprint the game like we see with the Vampire, the Masquarade cardgame. We will see them happily declare their first 'Alpha' sets that include the original game all over again.
@@pinobluevogel6458 Oh that is an interesting concept. I have been anticipating that WotC will eventually implode their brand, and that will result in the tapering off and eventual cessation of Magic products being produced. The player base and secondary market will continue afterward, but likely shrinking a little every year as people slowly move on and over time the supply of cards diminishes due to never being renewed.
However, a "reboot" could definitely be a way to resurrect the game out of the ashes like a phoenix, whether it is WotC who does it or the company who saves them from bankruptcy by buying the intellectual property. If you begin with printing some reprint sets, like the Masters or Remastered products, you can garner some new interest and start renewing the card supply. After that they could either move into only reprint sets, or even start introducing some newer cards. You could have a "Magic 2.0" set of formats with the new eternal format being only "cards that have been reprinted into the new version of the game". You could even do a fun rerun of old sets where you cut some duds and redo some cards to essentially make an edited and updated version of older V1 sets.
Come to think of it, that might be WotC's best option moving forward. They need to reboot their franchise. Start over with the design experience of today and the products of 20 years ago. This would allow for so much new space to work in.
@@MTGGoldfish They say that the definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over, but expecting different results. Well WotC showed them! You can't be insane if you try everything all at once and expect the same result from all of it!
@@ethanglaeser9239 Well, like you I have been thinking and discussing the future of magic for quite a while. And this 'reprinting' of magic after WotC is gone, is probably our best hope to ever make the game into something as enjoyable and great again. Not too long ago, some people bought the rights for the Vampire the Masquarade cardgame (formerly known as Vampire, the Eternal Struggle and Jyhad) or it bacame public domain, I don't know the details. But they started reprinting old cards and renewing the interest in the game.
Imagine such a thing for Magic, which is infinitely more popular than that cardgame ever was. Even looking back there are probably more players that quit the game but could have renewed interest than there are currently active players. It could mean a complete resurgence of the hobby, including tournaments and organized play. Somebody has to do it though .. and Wizards has to go bankrupt first, which could take a while. (although if they keep at their current pace, it will certainly be decades sooner)
Another big consideration is how WOTC is one of the only segments of Hasbro that is doing well from a financial standpoint. The extreme monetization of Magic is partly driven by the rest of Hasbro falling off a cliff.
I remember playing legacy and playing my Karakas Control deck. It typically did alright against good matchups, was ruined by bad matchups, but I was overall pleased. Then Wrenn and Six came out from MH1. Everyone was wasteland looping like crazy and I couldn't use my deck anymore. So I sold off everything. I didn't want to pay for the privilege of playing legacy, I wanted to play my deck, my brew. I quit magic almost entirely, because it wasn't the sort of game I wanted to play anymore. Now with Uro, Oko, Omnath, and whatever else "ruins" the meta, I get flooded by this feeling of schadenfreude, glad I devested from this game almost completely.
I watch this channel, because Seth enjoys the aspects of magic I like, but has the mental fortitude to wade through things, I couldn't stand. And I salute him for that, and will continue to watch him as long as the decks are fun and interesting until magic fizzles out, like how all modern "unsinkable" brands are sinking.
Power creep is the very reason that I stopped playing Yogioh ten years ago, since new cards were everywhere with more and more absurd power - as most people enjoy playing powerful cards. Now, I have to admit that magic is on the same way with multiple formats. Not only modern, the standard nowadays has been power creeping for years. I recent played an original Eldrine draft on MTGA, and it feels like a new player welcome format to me, knowing it was an infamous power creep set back then.
This trend of powercreep and printing better cards for non-rotating formats has been going on for quite some time now. It is not a recent thing, altough it seems to have accelerated quite a bit.
Chaos Emperor Dragon was the envoy of the end of my interest in competitive yugioh, and Dark Armed Dragon was the nail in the coffin. But Magic is just like yugioh now, price-gouging because they have the popularity to get away with it. I'm sick of it and doubt I will shell out for a tournament quality deck any time soon.
@@rossmcbeath4997 It is sad to have yet a second game ruined by corporate greed. However, the only way to respond is with your wallet. Do not buy anything they put out and stick to that until they change their behaviour.
As a community we just need to embrace a new format that is Modern minus all modern horizons and LotR and any other future sets that dont go through standard
Why not just switch to Pioneer? I'm not a big pioneer player myself, but at least right now, nothing is being printed directly into it.
@@jeremyromney9372 I mean, I personally agree. I actually don't play modern myself because of the horizons sets. I play Standard, Alchemy, and Pioneer and love them all. I'm just saying for people that want to play with some older cards but not the direct to modern stuff, this would be the solution
@@jeremyromney9372because all of the good cards that were in modern aren't in pioneer
Not everybody feels this way. Mh3 completely warping modern is a good thing
@@josephandrees5381 To those that feel that way, they are welcome to play Modern and I hope they have a ton of fun doing it. It's just not for me
Yes the -planet- format got destroyed. But for a beautiful moment in time we created a lot of value for shareholders.
You know, what's sad is that the issue is not the product being "non-profitable", but rather being "under-monitized". The issue is not a lack of profits, but rather a lack of an increase in profits
Seth... thanks for existing. You nailed it.
Excellent video Seth. One of your best!
Thanks!
I stopped caring around War of the Spark. Not worth keeping up.
Whoa, never noticed the blood moon guitar, crazy!
Stopped all spending on MTG and WotC in general when secret lair was announced, me and my wallet have never been happier... More people will come to the same conclusion as the scaminess intensifies.
Bowmasters being good against Ragavan reminds me of how Pokémon TCG used to print power legendary cards and then the very next set would have a power card with a type advantage against it (making it unplayable).
That´s why I proxy, why would anyone pay more then 10€ for a deck of cards lol
Lol commander players. You should show up at your LGS with proxies for a modern event. Let me know how it goes.
@@BludMun I´m neither a commander player, nor do i know what LGS means. I just play magic with some friends
@@AAtac-hw2sf I don't disagree with you that we need wider acceptance of proxies for casual formats. I am incredulous that you're watching a video specifically about Modern and don't know what an LGS (Local Game Store) means. If I was mistaken though, now you know 😉
You are not the targeted audience
Doesnt play Modern, doesnt know what an LGS is, doesnt own Magic cards.
This is like going to a video reviewing the latest Toyota Corolla and commenting “this is why I ride the bus”.
The problem is that a lot of these "shareholders" are also collectors. They are double dipping their investments. While not illegal, it is unethical. Because they benefit two fold from the same business pushing away normal consumers. Which then fuel stans to say stupid shit like "oh the poor thinks they know something again" or "if youre broke just say so". As if magic is some elite club for rich people and that any suggestions to make the game accessible will crumble their finances. We cant have regularion against this practice either becuause it only applies to actual stock investing.
Until we cultrally stamp out this "everything is fueling my retirement" mentality, there is no incentive to make the game consumer friendly.
I love the alliteration!
MH2 respected Tron, Titan, Burn and Jund, MH3 destryed what was left of old modern. Fury and Grief almost killed modern because wizards let them unbanned for much time, and then, the issues the bannings promised to solve where left unsolved, those bannings only made us more dependant to MH3.
Love that Telecaster in the background
The tragedy of this video is, that you are correct. We can see why they are doing it. We posit we do not like it. But they are the best selling sets ever. It’s sad 😔
imagine modern format with full bans on mh and lotr cards
Players complained about Modern al the time prior to MH1. In fact players complained WotC into making them.
stopped playing modern at modern horizons 1 expecting exactly this to occur and it's been correct. got into the format way back with your Emeria control in like, rtr-ish era (which actually got me into competitive magic in general) and it's just a shame watching it suffer.
Great video as always Seth. You guys always do a good job
The one thing MH did was turn me away from ever playing the format. When I got back into magic, it was my dream to play modern, I spent days, weeks looking at decklists, watching gameplays, learning play patterns, getting acquainted with the history. And then I saw what was being done to modern, I saw everything that looked cool in the format being killed by an overpowered 'out with the old in with the new' mentality, I watched wotcs predatory, anticonsumer and downright deceptive and exploitative business practices, and decided I was never spending money to get into this game again. Nowadays, I deleted arena and only play pauper (and mostly with borrowed decks). I really like the game for its potential and what it could be. I absolutely hate and despise it for what wotc has made of it. Your video did so well in reminding me how much I hate wotc business' practices I just unsubscribed from all modern creators I used to watch. Seeing the gameplay was just making me angry anyways
Massive respect to you for talking about this topic and telling it how it is, thank you. The moral of the story here: pressure whoever makes things you care about to never go public. Corporate has no investment in the long term satisfaction of players and no concept of consequences in the long term, as they'll shift their target market with an unrecognizable product or be ready to pull out by then. Oh, long time players are feeling alienated and your friends are getting out of the game? Number right now go up, who cares. The destiny of anything like this is to devolve into more and more desperate cash-grabs until finally they jump ship after making as much money as possible.
Love what you've done with your room, Seth :)
The legend himself
It's getting better! (Also, how are you Tawnos!?!)
This is also partly due to Commander being incredibly popular. You can't just print cards that mediocre forever, you need something that will get players to buy more cards. If Standard is awful and standard core sets don't have cards that are powerful enough to see play in other formats, then what's the point of making new cards?
This is what Yugioh players have been dealing with since 2002. However, Yugioh and Konami actually have *good* reprint policies. You can get a stack of staple playsets for about $50 that work in every deck (because Yugioh doesn't need specific colors for niche effects) and you can decide which 10-20 you want in your main/side decks, and your typical deck cores are about $50-$150. Outside of S:P Little Knight (a staple extra deck monster that is getting a much-needed reprint Soon™), you can build a competitive meta deck for under $200 that can hang with the meta for 2-3 years. Konami also spices things up with TONS of legacy support for older decks that often brings decks back from the dead (hell, Melodious support from the most recent YGO core set brought a deck that hadn't even sniffed a competitive event since its release in 2014 and turned it into one of the top meta contenders, same with Yubel, an unplayable ass-tier card from 2008 is now vying to be the best deck 16 years later).
You either get stale formats where nothing changes, or you get an evolving meta where things can come into and out of vogue.
Man I am glad that my favorite deck is Burn, the few new cards it does get are usually not over 5 dollars. I've been playing it since pretty much the beginning of Modern.
That's why I stopped playing modern
The moment Wizards convinced enough players that decreasing the value of modern cards doomed the game. Since that point it has become less and less justifiable to buy cards. Also allowed Wizards to make banning cards a normality which continued to undermine investments.
I used to spend thousands per year because I could justify resale later. I now effectively spend nothing.
Excellent video Seth, love content like this
I think this video makes sense except for the fact I think power creep has a limit and I think we are about to reach it very soon... I think there will be a point in which they cant make cards any more powerful due to sheer game mechanic restrictions and massive powercreep
I love the thorough explanation, but would be more likely to share the video if I knew what was more conjecture and what was based on evidence. Keep up the good work!
I feel like you hot the nail on the head on this topic. I think right now before the next modern rotation im going to sell out of my paper magic and just play arena where its free. It’s impossible to invest into game piece’s when the next power creep tanks every decks value. If i wait any longer I’ll probably miss out on thousands of dollars. Thanks
I'd be down for a modern format with all direct to modern sets being illegal.
I wonder if at some point someone starts a non-universes beyond and non-modern Horizon format. Essentially modern with no direct to modern printed cards. Might bring back what people liked about the format and allow people to play their standard cards.
There is. Theres competitive player run leagues you can join that are literally "no horizon modern". I haven't looked into it but I watch D00mwake co-ordinate a league a few weeks back on mtgo.
I loved MH1, but I didn't realize that it would harken the beginning of the end of my time with MTG. The way card design changed, making every card a must-kill threat, removed any viable control strategy or response action from the game. Every game is now, "who wins first." I played for 14 years, but my large group has moved on to games where skill still maters, not just the initial draw.
All that said, MTGGoldfish just makes awesome content, so I still check back from time to time.
The issue is the speed of the power creep, not the creep itself. Every expandable game requires either complexity creep or power creep. If every set did the same things but worse you would never buy any set ever. New design space adds complexity and players want to play with powerful cards. People have been complaining about power creep since the games first expansion, but it’s a needed part of the game. The issue is it’s too quick now, most people can afford small purchases or trades over time to get cards, but dumping dozens or more new staples every set is exhausting for even veteran players.
Part of the joy of Modern was new cards coming out that were viable. It was rare, so you could get creative if you thought something was going to be good.
Now, you can just slap together 37 Modern Horizons cards and 23 lands and call it a day.
There's seldom excitement around most set releases. The only time anything in Modern changes is when direct-to-Modern sets release, so Magic feels less interesting for Modern players outside a few times a year. It's sad.
I miss 2017.
"Don't ask questions, just consume product and get excited for next products"
This! This is why I stopped playing modern when MH2 came out, I saw that this was WoTCs gameplay even then and I have better things to do with my money
I am the QT scandal about TOR on twitter glad to see you addressing this.
Nice plug Seth.
While this new cycle does make some cards tank in value or become unplayable, it also activates cards that were relegated to the bench. Snapcaster Mage, Soul Spike, Desperate/Pyretic Ritual, Trinisphere - to name a few cards that were collecting dust - now have real value and power. If you’re a player that only buys cards for your decks, this new cycle hurts you. For those of us that collect over the years, it evens out.
This is one of the better takes I've heard on the subject matter.
Though, I would make the point that it does not just apply to Modern but has also been a focus of the Commander, the most popular format, as well.
Wizards has engaged in power creep in all sorts of janky cards to take Commander from something where one was predominantly finding interesting uses for cards that did not see regular play in other formats into a format where the 99 is increasingly dictated by the latest sets to be released and push out all the old cards.
As someone who has been playing since 1994 and seen things like the Power 9 and other cards get restricted and banned from most formats to now just regularly see really high power creep (yes, granted, Homelands and Fallen Empires were a swing too strongly in the nerf direction) I have been somewhat shocked by the rapidity with which they have been pumping out absolute haymakers into the various formats.
I guess it's good for the bottom line. But, for me, I tire of trying to keep up with the Jones's.
Same. Devaluing old cards fundamentally changes the game. The average length of game and mana value of decks of Commander has been gradually lowering. For a social format designed to play big behemoths that would otherwise not see play it's failing. Big cards even from the Alara, Zendikar, Scars, Innistrad era are too weak now to see play. Why would anyone play a card like Vigor or Urabrask, the Hidden? They're just so bad by modern Commander standards. Sheoldred, the Whispering One isn't even good enough for high casual tables anymore.
Nothing is more important than the flow of share holder value!
I think I am switching back to pokemon at this point. Never thought I would see the day. I completely agree that they treated modern as 'undermonetized' and got rid of what the players liked about it--making decks that could hold value and playability. It's noteworthy that for commander, the process was somewhat samey. Both formats were player friendly and you (supposedly) could make a deck that lasted a long time. That's simultaneously a big aspect of their popularity/appeal, and exactly why they got targeted for 'monetization'.
Fantastic analysis seth
Love that this video call out the greed from wotc
11:13 MH2 came out 3 years ago. It’s funny how modern was celebrated as a “non-rotating” format and now this is the future.
Good analysis, its like the stock market: sell your cards before the rotation.
I'm selling my collection. Wizards is just more and more dirty with his player base
I don't know why I've never noticed that Blood Moon Telecaster before. That's sick!
That is an awesome guitar in the background 😮
6:28
They already did that, remember?
FIRES DESIGN..
war of the spark, eldraine, etc
I've said it before, the monetization schema you are describing, is adopted by most games, and most games squeeze the blood of users, and never last very long. I think they are about to finally tire most of their player base away.
It would be great to hear you and Rudy @alphainvestments discuss these topics in a joint video. Clearly very opposite sides of the game, but I think it would be interesting to see how the conversation plays out. Great video!
It’s like Yugioh now. Every new set has high rare new staples and cards that powercreep the old ones so you have to sell your $1000 deck to get the new $1000 deck. It’s hard to guess when you should sell too cuz sometimes they’ll ban a deck after 3 months and other times a deck might survive for a year rarely two years but as a fringe deck by then. The reason they ban decks early sometimes is because if a deck is too good that it’s better than the next wave of powercreep then they have to ban it to sell packs. If it’s not too good then after a year it’ll be completely powercrept and worthless so they will print it again for dirt cheap in a reprint set or they’ll ban it for good measure. There have also been plenty of examples where some crazy broken card comes out like Nadu and some weird old card suddenly becomes relevant and spikes in price. Oftentimes Konami will reprint that card in some smaller reprint set to sell it. The first deck that really powercept everything before it was dragon rulers in 2013. They could all be played from the hand or grave by exiling two creatures with the same color and had other abilities to discard to load the grave. They were the first cards I thought of when I read hogaak for the first time. As a Yugioh player I actually got excited to play modern cuz I had been taken by vengevine as a card even though the deck wasn’t good but now it had a crazy new tool at its disposal. I knew a ban was coming after MCIV so I waited and got the cards cheap playing Hedron Crab now. Still if I want to play the best version I would need to pick up the blue and black flares plus psychic frog to upgrade the deck and it’s still not really playable anyway especially since most people don’t know how to make the mulligan decisions with the deck. I’ve played it since 2019 so I might be able to spike an FNM if I dodge grave hate but that’s it. Very few people would take it to a pro tour and none would finish well. But the comparisons to Yugioh after Hogaak continue. There are so many free spells now. Hogaak was a free spell. Around 2015 when the set Duelist Alliance came out every deck that had ever come before was completely powercrept and it’s continued exponentially to this day. The biggest example being the card Firewall Dragon which facilitated many turn combos that would burn the opponent. Anyways that’s my observations as both a Yugioh and Modern player who started playing just after the modern horizons era began and I started playing Yugioh just after Duelist Alliance as well. Kinda weird but you are absolutely right that the trend will continue. It’s how Yugioh has gone as a game and the similarities to me are striking
I kind of hope that Marvel and FF aren't power crept. They have big enough audiences and draw that I think they'll be very profitable even without a great deal of creep. It would make better financial sense to save the true creep cards for after those when they need a new shot in the arm.
Almost the same exact problem is happening with Commander too. As soon as Wizards realized there was money to be made, and started printed cards specifically targeted for EDH, it became less fun and more focused on Commander Staples. I am unhappy with what Magic is becoming
What sucks the most is that when the Marvel and FF Universes Beyond sets come out they will most likely be Modern viable, hell they may even make them even better. The problem is that LoTR works in MTG because that universe and its lore fits almost perfectly with Magic’s aesthetic. However, myself and I imagine many other players are not going to be happy when we start seeing Vision Storm, Cloud Aggro and Ironman Artifacts archetypes start dominating the Modern metagame. We are moving ever closer to the world wherein I find myself casting Tommy Pickles and in response my opponent flashes in Fishstick to prevent my Peppa Pig from triggering.
"Modern is a Gacha Game" was not the statement I was expecting to wake up to this morning, but damn, is that such a funny allusion.
"Wait... it's all genshin impact?"
*click* "Always has been!"
Well done, Seth!
yo, off topic but that blood moon guitar is sick
Corporate world will eat its own in the end. Always does.
The Warhammer people been able to get a few of the magic players into 40k and Age of Sigmar recently since you pretty much build your army and update whenever you get a new codex or points get changed.
Surprised we didn’t talk about the new magic set “core set of core sets”
I know a lot of players I've talked to have left modern for pioneer since it's rotating but less so nowadays.
However, I feel like what I've been missing most is the interesting games that used to be inspired by what we got just from standard which has me far more excited for pauper.
I feel kind of sad to see modern become what it is today due to modern horizon.
Just going to add my voice to the list of "This caused me to quit the game." Mostly because I simply can't afford it anymore, but I really hated having decks be completely blown up so regularly. Swapping out 8-12 cards every 6-12 months is one thing, but entire archetypes being rendered obsolete so frequently definitely took it out of me.
“…and the shareholders are hungry”
-Seth
Really great to see this
This is why commander is the only format I play anymore. There's a lot less pressure to play the most optimized version of your deck, and even if you want to do that in cEDH pods, you can always proxy.
This seems destined to be a cautionary tale about late-stage capitalism. Nothing is ever profitable enough and then it's squeezed dry and collapses and no one's happy.
It's just so depressing. I absolutely loved this format and what it represented. It's now been mangled beyond recognition. I really hope this "pure modern" idea takes off. If not, I guess I'll try out pioneer again. Sad times
I feel like over time the power level of MH3 will balance out. I just sucks we had to lose so many old cards in the process
One of the best video essays I’ve seen, the use of statistics to show a proper argument as to why Modern Horizons has hurt the game a lot
Imagine the power we have as a magic community around the world. To stop this crazy (however fun) power-creep and deep dig into our pockets, we could as a collective choose to stop buying lets say, the next modern horizons set. Just keep playing the old decks in pro-tours etc. We could show wizards our strength, and i think its a good idea to plant into the community. #makemodernstable
Thank god for pioneer. The only pure format left.