What Do Military Simulations Show About Taiwan?
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- เผยแพร่เมื่อ 23 ก.ค. 2024
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What would happen if Beijing ultimately decides to invade Taiwan? Would the island be able to withstand the attack by the People's Republic of China? What role could the United States play? Would the U.S. military be able to withstand the Chinese onslaught? In this video we tell you all the details.
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#Taiwan #Military #visualpolitik
Never underestimate a soldier fighting to protect their homeland.
You are talking about the PLA, right. They are defending a Part of China called Taiwan.
@@bobcharles7716uh no. They would be invaders. Republic of china is the legitimate government of both Taiwan and mainland china.
Like bahmuk
@@bobcharles7716 Polylactic acid? This isn't the video on biodegradable plastics. Move along
@@thepeff Your wise crack (if you can call it that) is not nearly as good as mine.
Leaves out the fact that China is far more vulnerable to a blockade than Russia is, and Taiwan could easily be made unpalatable to invade.
A naval blockade against China will work only if Japan, the US, the Philippines and Vietnam will cooperate with each other to help Taiwan.
China is investing heavily into Pakistan, and want to build up their harbor. China have also started road construction from Pakistani harbor and all the way up to china. China is also gonna make a trump wall along the road to protect it from radical islam attack
entier Russia has almost the same GDP and industrial capacity as a Chinese province China,
China alone has higher GDP than Japan+India+South Korea+Russia all together,
but still so many people prentend that China is more vulnerable and easy to deal with,
to be honest, even the US can finally defeat China, it may takes several decennies and even more than one century, with enormous sacrifices and prices,
thr Anti-China alliamce is nothing new amd creative for the Chinezes, in 300-200 BC, the 6 Eastern States have already formed a Anti-Qin alliance, but unsuccessful,
China is not invincible, but not so vulnerable, it wil be the hardest, toughest opponent that the US have neve met before,
as the contemporary equal Of Roman empire, China survives, until today, rises again and again after each fall, when other empires are died definitely,
so who give us illusion that China is eay to deal with?
China is rerouting traffic through the BRI, although one wonders if it will be successful endeavor?
@@Emilechen China is dependent on raw material imports. All that GDP goes to almost nothing without the fuel, fertilizer, food, and ore they import.
Taiwan straddles trade routes for 90 percent of Japan's energy imports. Were it to invade Taiwan, China could put a stranglehold on Japan. So, I expect Japan to go "all in".
Fomer Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe said," Taiwan`s crisis is Japan`s crisis." Japan cannot be a bystander if China starts to invade Taiwan.
If that is the case Japan will be no more.
Japan could build nukes overnight
So will China
Never underestimate a soldier fighting for their homeland, way of life ,and their families
Never underestimate all the military experts and 5 star generals commenting here. 🤣
@@PeteBooty-JuiceNazi Germany and Imperial Japan like “hold my beer”.
A lot of simulation makes you look that Taiwan is completely defenseless and completely depends on the US. Everyone talks about the US sellling weapons like Harpoons to Taiwan, but Taiwan because of it's strong technology has developed really good missiles. Taiwan’s air-defense missile density (more than 6,000 missiles in stockpile) now ranks second only to Israel’s, with the intention of eventually surpassing that country. Its locally developed Hsiung Feng III and Hsiung Feng II missiles can now hit targets anywhere in the Taiwan Strait. They have more than 2,000 anti-ship missiles. Taiwan is also protected by the sea and natural fortifications such as mountain ranges, making the nation more difficult to penetrate than Ukraine. They would literally sink the whole PLA fleet even before they reach anywhere close to Taiwan. As much as Putin"s invasion of Ukraine was a stupid idea...invading Taiwan is actually 100 x more stupid.
Um, 2,000 missiles is not enough to sink a fleet, especially since that is compared between both anti-air and anti-ship missiles. Not to mention most of their anti-ship missiles are subsonic and not sea skimming, so they are easily shot down.
It looks like you forgot all military ships.have anti-air capabilities.
@@voidtempering8700I didn"t forget that ...but you forget we are dealing with China in this case. China better be careful not to use their military too much. Everything I've ever possessed from China breaks when used too much.
@@borisreljanovic7292 Why are you using an old stereotype that doesn't apply to their military equipment. Based on their export history, all their military gear works fine. It only breaks if you buy cheap items, which is not what their military does.
@@borisreljanovic7292like iphone or tesla?
@@voidtempering8700 I disagree. Despite all its tall claims, a lot of experts doubt the quality of the Chinese arms and weapons, given the overall fall in China’s global market share of arms exports. Besides the hidden costs, including the political ones, Chinese weapons are seemingly losing their charms as they remain largely untested in real combats, unlike the western systems that have proven their worth on battlefields.
Clarification: The CCP currently has 3 aircraft carriers but has plans to launch another 3 for a total of 6.
the catch is theyre made in china
@@chinesesparrows the catch is Taiwan is 100 miles from China. They need exactly 0 aircraft carriers.
@@chinesesparrowsthey have space station , they land rover on mars , they brought back dirt sample from dark side of the moon , whats your country have ? Balut or chicken masala?
@@M_Jono I’d trade the whole worthless CCP for a good chicken masala!!
All of those “achievements” you mentioned were stolen through dirty espionage, not true innovation. China-fascist slave labor camp.
The catch is the carriers are not far from WWII technology and they lacks a battle group to support it.
Great video. You should do an updated one that includes the video on the Philippines. The Philippines would significantly increase logistical capabilities and support for Taiwan.
The Philippines also said they will not join in a war against China to protect Taiwan. The Philippines can't even protect themselves!
I work in the semiconductor industry. Taiwan’s technology is absolutely top of the top and I understand the US need to keep it secure. It’s the oil fields of the next generation.
so the US only cares about the semi conductors in other-words. they don't give a shit about the tiawanese. if they could simply replace them all with Americans they would.
Makes you wonder why the US would allow such strategically important technology to be that close to China.
Are they willing to die to protect Taiwan's semiconductor chips though?
@ssss8162 of course. That's why America does all this shit
@tommygun5038 go have extra justification to box in China
It would be pretty safe to assume that the UK and Australia would be dragged into such a conflict through the AUKUS treaties.
Not to mention NATO. At least if China fires back when we defend Taiwan, that would trigger article 5. China would be facing down the barrels of the entire worlds arsenal. In reality itll be a proxy between Vietnam and Beijiing though. Unless Xi has the mind if a pooh bear.
If you don't want to do anything, then break that treaty and sever all relations with the US.
There you go, I just solved your problem.
And Japan and South Korea and if a US base is attacked the rest of NATO
@@cashewnuttel9054 Sever with the worlds only global super power ... over a nation who hasn't fired a weapon since 1979 ... Keep making my phones
@@markmierzejewski9534Jameslewis2635 does not want either the UK or Australia dragged into the conflict. However, the treaty they have with the US will drag them into it, I gave him a very simple solution to save thousands of British and Australians from death.
And I don't live in China if that's what you are implying with "Keep making my phones".
There has never been a naval invasion on the scale needed to take Taiwan, ever. The closest is probably Inchoen and Normandy, but both are more than 70 years ago, and both are landing into sympathetic territory. It is hard to say whether 70 years of technological advancements made it easier or harder.
Therefore efforts should likely go towards prevention of a naval blockade, which means either a huge naval showdown, or Taiwan needs to have enough anti-ship missiles to sink anything coming its way.
Taiwan's building a fleet of modern small submarines which would be a strong deterrent against a Chinese naval blockade
Incheon
A couple Destroyers in the Straits of Malacca can shutdown Chinese shipping and bring China to their knees if they move on Taiwan.
Germany invaded Norway and won despite Norway getting help from France, UK and Poland. Even the railroad was build inland and still is to this day because they wanted to prevent German bombing. The British also had a bigger navy. Norway was actually among the most anti-German countries also. Now compare norway to Finland which actually was able to hold off for many months without any help. Germany was also buisy invading Denmark and invaded France, Netherlands and Belgium 1 month later. It is impossible to predict the outcome of a war between China and Taiwan just like almost every other war.
@@steffengustavsen9678 this is where Taiwan's small size is actually an advantage. There are so few possible landing spots that Taiwan knows exactly where China could land, meaning the defenders would be in place if and when they try, as opposed to trying to defend the huge Norwegian coastline. Not to mention that the presence of Penghu Island means that any supply lines from China would be cut off if they don't take Penghu first. So yeah, it is different than the Norwegian invasion by Germany.
Great informative report. Many thanks.
Taiwan is already incorporated into China and is already a genuine province of China if you don’t believe me then look up KLT music video on the divisions of China. Nicaragua and Cuba because of its strong technology has developed really good missiles. Cuba’s air-defense missile density (more than 7k missiles in stockpile) now ranks second only to Israel’s, with the intention of eventually surpassing that country. Its locally SS-4 SANDAL and SS-5 SKEAN missiles can now hit targets anywhere in the Florida Strait. They have more than 2.3k anti-ship missiles. Big Cuba is also protected by the sea and natural fortifications such as mountain ranges, making the nation more difficult to penetrate than Ukraine and Taiwan. They would literally sink the whole USA fleet even before they reach anywhere close to Cuba. As much as Bush’s invasion & loss in Afghanistan was a stupid idea… invading Cuba & Central America is 10,000x more stupid.
Bot
What? WTF is this lmao
You copied Boris Reljanovic comments about Taiwan's missile and replaced with Cuba bot.
Where's the proof? At no point of history has Taiwan ever been ruled by a communist government. This goes to explain why Taiwan is prosperous and china is the most indebted country in the world I'd suggest
Who said anything about invading Cuba?
Amphibious invasions just don't seem possible anymore to land a large amount of of armour/troops. Take the area/air first and then roll in. A modern day d-day would be a "fish in a barrel" situation if Taiwan is halfway capable. I guess the latter is the question.
I suspect that the Taiwanese would use Erwin Rommel's plan for the defense of Normandy that Hitler rejected. The Taiwanese would make Bloody Omaha look like an elementary school slap-fight.
amphibious landing is possible when bombs flatten out the protection edges. Study the China and India war in 1962 and you will see how capable Chinese soldiers are.
@@anttycoon Pretty easy to defeat your enemy when your enemy is equipped with bolt action rifles.
@@anttycoonlol 1962 and today are not same with your logic Japan will conquer all of Asia like it did during world war 2. China failed in Vietnam
@@anttycoon Look at the 1979 conflict with Vietnam to find out as well.
Idk what you’re spouting about saying China has 6 aircraft carriers, they have 1 super carrier and 2 smaller class aircraft carriers
Information your giving is amazing 👏 ❤
6:44
*Biden:* we're not gonna step back
*Also Biden:* *immediately steps back
CCP has never ruled over Taiwan while KMT (Taiwan) ruled over mainland China.
There is only one China, the elected Republic of China.
@@jeremyjackson7429 I hear the KMT recently rescinded their claim on Mongolia.
KMT is no longer the ruling party in Taiwan after Taiwanese were allowed to vote for their own president.
The current ruling party is DPP founded in Taiwan and is pro Taiwan independence.
The current leader of DPP and the president of Taiwan Tsai even has aboriginal Paiwan heritage.
KMT ruled over Taiwan for 50 years under dictatorship backed by the US. KMT and the Chinese refugees that lost civil war only count around 10% of Taiwan’s population. Most Taiwanese did not participate the founding of ROC and did not participate the Chinese civil war. Most Taiwanese were Japanese citizens and KMT’s ROC government even had a Chinese consulate in Taihoku:Taipei in 1930s.
KMT claims ROC to be China while DPP does not, so do most Taiwanese not.
A lot of videos talking about Taiwan ignore what Taiwanese think. They just mention about KMT’s old propaganda.
Btw, the Dutch and Spanish came to Taiwan before Qing. Qing only ruled over half of the island only. Japan was actually the first country to rule over the whole island. Before all those regimes came, Taiwan was inhibited by aborigines/Austronesian people. Most Chinese immigrants have nothing to do with Qing nor KMT anyways. They were like most Southeastern Chinese Asians that immigrated out of China centuries ago to find a better life overseas.
@@danielch6662 : They haven't. It is still in theri constitution
@@bctvanw That is true about the population not all being of Chinese descent. Around 5% are not chinese/han as Formosa was only handed over to the ROC in repearations for Japan's crimes in WW2. 95% though are Han Chinese refugees driven from the mainland. The CCP has never had control of Formosa.
the simulations also said Russia would take Ukraine in like a bunch of a days.
The simulations were never wrong.
It's how you use that arsenal.
Give me Russian arsenal and I will easily make Ukraine fall in next few hours.
Putin never ordered to blow the power plants and railway network of Ukraine even now which is the very basic thing to do in a war.
Nobody knew Russia was that incompetent.
cough, cough Afghanistan!
Correct. These simulations are retarded.
I don’t know how so many people still don’t get this. In war, no one wins.
Because Americans love war
What is that thing hanging on the wall behind you, next to the flat screen? Looks like Xmas tree lights hanging out of it somehow.
Even a succesful invasion would be catastrophic for Chinese economy, following inevitable decoupling from West due to sanctions.
The destruction that comes from nukes will be the biggest deterrent. When that shits land on an nation, the amount of destruction would be so large that Albert Einstein asserted that future wars beyond a nuclear war would be fought with stick and stones.
@João P K The west has many many more nukes than China. its 10 to 1 at least.
Like they have been catastrophic to Russia`s economy?? The west nolonger controls the worlds economy
Would be nice if the west pulled out of China before that even
How can China invade itself? Taiwan is apart of China. The US government even recognizes this. The US does not care about Taiwan or its people; it only cares about the semiconductor industry and gaining control of it.
9:02 "China launches the most advanced aircraft carrier on the planet outside the US...". Simply not true. France has nuclear powered carrier. China does not.
Nuclear power is the much of an advantage for a carrier anyway not when the rest of a battle group still needs fueling
Nuclear power is 1950s technology.
@@JA-pn4ji Diesel power is 1890 technology.
French carrier has jets from 1980s. Chinese carrier has 5th generation stealth jets.
@@forbeginnersandbeyond6089 Someone should tell the Brits that their new conventional powered twin aircraft carriers are less advanced than France's 22 year old nuclear aircraft carrier.
China has been digging an undersea tunnel towards Taiwan for years now
Someone needs to check this out
That would be one of the greatest civil engineering projects in human history even with multinational support and agreement. It would be like Hitler digging a channel tunnel from occupied France to Britain in World war 2.
@@joeyjojojrshabadoo7462 prove it though
@@Truther00 You said they were doing it!
I would not be surprised 😮 if that is true, Chinese has demonstrated they can accomplish what they want and have the patience to doit. Now a tunnel can be a easy target 🎯 i presume?
@@joeyjojojrshabadoo7462 Because China already have it.
The thing to note about direct military spending comparisons is they don't take into account what is being payed for. Taiwan only has to worry about preparing for a Chinese invasion for the most part while China has to make an army that can be useful for the various border disputes it has with its neighbours along with trying to secure the south china sea.
Granted Taiwan could probably do w/ focusing more on making any potential invasion painful via being able to continue an insurgency if an amphibious assault does succeed, but that's neither here nor there.
I think you'll find weapons designed to blow up one thing can also blow up other things.
And good luck running an insurgency on a small island with hundreds of drones overhead plus a dozen balloons running AI target tracking.
China does not "have to" secure the South Sea it is an aggressive choice. They can also be good neighbors to countries rather than conquering them like Tibet, Uzbeikistan, Mongolia, Manchuria, etc.
@@RonWagner They kinda can't though, nationalism is a crutch the government uses to deflect from internal issues.
Effectively a line of credit they can't simply choose to not pay back.
That being said they have been more buddy buddy with central Asia ever since Russia started the process of ritual disembowlment it refuses to cease
who the hell cares?
we are not gonna bleed if China takes back their property.
Taiwan is not ours.
n
Japan and the US must help in the defense of Taiwan.
What about Canada?
@@cashewnuttel9054 it goes without mentioning.
Canada doesn’t really have a military
Unless US lift the treaty, Japan can't attack China even if it's to help Taiwan.
@@cashewnuttel9054 wtf has Canada ever done
West Taiwan isn't going to like this video 😂.
You do realize that officially there is no such thing as Taiwan. They also call themselves ROC.
@@theoutsider7331 or Taiwanese
I’ll say this much.
If such a war ever does break out Taiwans semi conductor industry will be lost forever. To both sides.
No matter who “wins”.
Yep.
Chip fabs are the ultimate "hothouse flower" technology.
And both China and USA are trying like mad to make ownshore replacement fabs as we type.
Interesting times....
VisualPolitik EN ...
you mentioned the PRC's problems with Taiwan, using the word invasion.
please explain what the word invasion means?
Let's not forget China is also in a worse economic condition than the u.s. China may be spending lots of money on its military the truth is they actually don't have any money left to rebuild itself.
hahahahaha
that was funny
The last time I check it is US banks geeting collapse not China or Russia 😂😂😂😂
Explain this, I don't understand
@@M_Jono Forgetting the Evergrande default? This crisis destroyed real estate confident in China which is a big part of economic growth. We don't even need to talk about Russia, the 3 days military special operation is now a costly 1 year + war.
Yeah, the idea that China's industrial and production capacity would not be targeted in a war with the US is naive. The video's assumption of that point is not based on reality.
Radar and missile accuracy have improved 10 fold since the world's last major amphibious assault. The oceans would be red with Chinese blood. I seriously doubt Chinese mothers would be just fine with their only sons going splat without even a chance to raise their rifle.
by the time chinese troops land on taiwan, the island would be more or less fighting with infantry weapons. China totally dominates taiwan in air, sea and artillery.
@@hughmungus2760 India says hello.
@@johnmcgill3603 india has its hands full with pakistan and trying to get over the himalayas
This is a random question but what is the song at 1:14? It sounds way too good
Taiwan should increase the length of the military service and increase their ground forces to 200k. No one can defend Taiwan unless Taiwan is ready to defend itself.
為什麼😂台灣人也是中國人啊，目前只是為了撈點利益和美國合作而已，怎麼會為你美國利益去和自己人戰鬥呢？沒有人會像烏克蘭一樣蠢好嗎。
Always wanted to visit Taiwan
If this escalates, the trip might be free, but mandatory. 😅
Taiwan is a beautiful country, lovely friendly people & so much to see & do 🏞️🥟🍱🍜🌃🇹🇼🇹🇼
@@itinnyi Yeah sadly hopefully cooler heads will prevail.
The suggestion that the US would not be able to see an invasion coming is absurd. Even Taiwan will know it's coming because China has to drain the Three Gorges Dam before an invasion as they'd lose massive amount of military hardware downstream. Taiwan is well aware of this and has been designing missiles to strike all dams or other strategic targets in China for decades.
Downstream that dam is directly a city with a population of 1,3 million people. Shooting that dam could possibly kill more people that the atomic bomb on Hiroshima and Nagasaki. And has no military value whatsoever. It’s a bid the same as bombing a nuclear power plant.
No country will do this, not only because of ethical reasons, but also because they will risk losing their Allies and support, they will increase the support for China could perhaps gain new allies, and all this to kill civilians and gain no military advantage whatsoever….
I am sure anyone attacking that dam will have a high probability of getting nuclear response
@@alfeeman and getting a bigger nuclear response in return.
@@johnblaze1878 Lets all die together then.
@@pasta502the point is nobody is going to launch an atomic weapon because of the deturance of a retaliatory atomic strike. Mutually assured destruction, MAD.
Thanks!
By far the best video ive seen on this topic. Appreciate the effort you put in here!
While direct support from Japan and South Korea might be slow, the US has a semi-permanent base agreement with the Philippines. The Philippines is playing a poker game, due to its relatively weak armed forces, the rotational bases agreement will definitely help deter Chinese invasion coming from the Kaoshiong straight, south of Taiwan. Although, president Marcos said that the Philippines will not allow use of the bases for offensive attacks by the US, it will allow the US to use the northern bases as staging points for defense.
I think Japan will support Taiwan as much as it will be able to. Japan is going to change its constitution to establish an army + it remilitarizes fast 🇯🇵
The Philippines are making a mistake. I wonder how many of you think that China is just going to get bombed by America and not do anything back. You know that China will send ICBMs to the US mainland right? They will also send some to the Philippines and any place that has US military soldiers. You guys are crazy thinking China is weak. Lmao
The Philippines has a decent military
@@rayray196 not really. Decent for land self defense, but not sea, nor air.
@@KenMikaze enough to defeat the shining path and abu sayad lol
Considering the performance of China's equipment in Ukraine, it's a paper tiger. They'll find this out the hard way when they try to attack Taiwan.
Taiwan is using old obsolete US equipment 2 - 3 generations old.
@@danielch6662 Which is still vastly superior to Chinese equipment. Military hardware doesn't require the cutting edge process nodes that consumer electronics do. Material and systems design is more important than using the latest chip. Of course using actual consumer hardware (like China does) is a recipe for disaster.
@@danielch6662 And that 2-3 generation old US equipment being used in Ukraine is absolutely mauling the Russians and their Chinese made equipment. Cope harder.
What Chinese equipment in Taiwan? Can you give lists and sources for which equipment and how it performed poorly?
you mean us is a paper tiger right lol, hasn't fought a real near peer rival. only some barbarians in slippers riding camels.
Do we have any idea how accurate these "simulations" are? Have the system been tested before wars to prove its reliability? Is it even possible to simulate a chaotic war where you don´t have a fraction of the information you need to predict anything and what you do know could change in a heartbeat. I just don´t see how you can simulate something like that with any meaningful degree of certainty.
I dont know how this software works, however i assume it will be similar to lets say weather forecast models. The software makes predictions on the basis of inputs you feed it with. The more data you feed it, the more "accurate" it is. That said, like with weather forecast models, one change or unpredicted scenario and your model can be very different from reality. Humans in this case are the "unpredictable scenario", unlike weather we dont follow easily predictable patterns. So if i should make guess, its usefull data, not something that will survive "first contact with the enemy" so to say. Its one of milions of possible scenarios that depends on the human inputs the software cant predict, or at least cant predict reliably.
VisualPolitic EN
you mentioned the PRC's problems with Taiwan, using the word invasion.
please explain what the word invasion means?
@0:57 The White House (whoever that is) later corrected the President on that answer.
😂😂
Yeah, kinda embarrassing when you are refuted and corrected, as a president, by your own staff eh?
I believe the key is to have enough missile systems (especially anti-ship) to make an invasion so costly that China will not be willing to pay that cost. Fighter jets and ground forces are great if they land but the point is not to let that happen. If enough ships and personnel are lost during the trip across the straight perhaps the Chinese people will pressure Ping and his cronies to call it quits. Then again, if the people are as radical as the Japanese in WW2, Taiwan may be screwed.
It’s not gonna end like how US withdrawal from Vietnam due to public outcry, it is not how china roll.
That's kind of what they're doing already, Taiwan has a ton of missile capacity already and is investing even more.
China hasn’t done anything rash to Taiwan in 70 years other than exchanging artillery fire with islands close to the Chinese mainland. This invasion of Taiwan by the Chinese is highly unlikely. China would more likely try a blockade of Taiwan which even then might not be successful.
US Navy would just bomb the hell out of close Chinese Cities and that would be that. China stands literally no chance against US Navy and Airforce if we decide to go total war on them. The CCP knows this. So they will probably never go so far. All their major cities right there on the coast. I think people don't realize how much stuff the US has in Asia. Two Biggest Straits in the World are Malacca and Sinai. The USA has military bases and fleets surrounding both. We owned Philippines. Took over Japan. Defended South Korea against the Communists. We have 30k troops SK. More in the latter countries. Our current force in Asia is likely stronger then China all ready. Beijing can literally be targeted from Japan. CCP won't do anything.
@@Dept246 I agree I doubt they attempt an invasion; a Taiwan invasion
would make what is happening in Ukraine look like a skirmish.
Its like hitting a beehive with a stick, then prepare to run away very fast.
Love for Taiwan 🇹🇼 ❤️❤️🙏🏾🙏🏾🙏🏾🙏🏾 from America 🇺🇸 💯💯💯
I look forward to the American Civil War, when will Texas be independent, when will Alaska be independent? ? Isn't the United States the warmonger who loves war the most in the world?
Ok in that case my response would be down with the USA, maybe if USA collapsed like the Roman Empire would the world be better in the long run.
Russia wouldn't be able to take advantage of the US's weakened state in the aftermath of this war due to their failure in Ukraine. Plus, wouldn't an attack on US navy, or US navy bases be seen as an attack on NATO?
The US federal government cartel attacked a German pipe line, a article 5 attack and NATO went all ssssshhhh
NATO is nothing without the U.S. And the current CIC of the U.S. Armed Forces is quite incompetent.
China's other related vulnerabilities are numerous. Their energy and trade sea routes are vulnerable to India with whom they have border disputes. Straits of Malacca choke point. For a country so dependent on freedom of navigation, their intent to destabilize the current order seems to pander to domestic and conservative military emotions rather than hard logic. Perhaps China will find their hands full with trying to build a rail and road link to European markets through some of the most unstable countries on earth.
My inddian Navy is a j0ke. We d0nt have en0ugh warships to do bl0ckade. Our Soviet era ships are outdated and we d0nt want t0 get hammered by china fr0m the n0rth again.
Nope... China can directly enter Indian ocean through Pakistan occupied kashmir...
Pakistan doesn't have a border with China but pakistan occupied kashmir gives them direct access... People need to understand the significance of kashmir...
If India takes kashmir which is occupied by Pakistan, they get road transit to Russia which means India dominates Russian market which is currently controlled by China...
Strait of Malacca is only good for stopping oil but with Russia/iran having no buyers thanks to USA sanctions.. China is buying it at a majority... Blocking Chinese trade will effect usa and Europe more than China itself...
This is the reason apple moving significant portion of their production to India...
Joe Biden/democrats are not smart compared to a business man like trump in this area... Trump knows China controls trade because they are dependent but joe Biden thinks they can hit Chinese economy with that dependency by removing all American companies from china... Thankfully China has not attacked Taiwan yet...
China runs $1 trillion a year in trade surplus, that should give you a clue to which side will have a shortage without trade.... which raises the question: for a country that runs $1 trillion sea-going trade deficit and already suffers record inflation, the US certainly seem eager to bite the hand that feeds them.
And no Strait of Malacca isn't a choke point, it's not the 19th century anymore, Chinese medium range hypersonics can cover the entire Indian ocean to the south and half of France to the west, China can import Russian oil while cutting off North America from Euroasia.
Indian wants war with China are Indian tried of living always talk of war with China
@@vlhc4642 See you really don't have a clue do you. That surplus trade is only because of western countries and businesses and so without that China's surplus goes away. China is nothing more then cheap labor and if this becomes a problem then we will find the next cheap market to deal with. Your dealings with Australia have shown that when you try to do something like that it hurts China more then it hurt Australia. You put bans on our products and so we just went and found other markets while China suffered.
Thank you❤
Surely if Taiwan had its own independent nuclear weapon capability, then this whole scenario would drastically change. Surely Taiwan must gain its own nuclear deterrence now, for survival, rather than relying on the USA.
India could be an extremely valuable ally in containing China. However, India seems to have lost the trust of the US and west due to its timid stance against Russia.
What timid stance? Ukraine would have fallen by now had it not been for US support. Either way, I don’t see India getting involved.
India national interest is destruction of Pakistan, if China and US is going to war, even if India doesn't join that, I don't see how India won't try to finish Pakistan off while China is looking away.
Lol and u thin we trust the Indians too? 😂😂😂😂😂
@@banditonehundred Read it again. He is saying that Indias reponse has been timid... I.E they have not acted with any morals in the situation. Acting blind to those things means people will act blind if it ever happens to you.
@@pewpewpew9239 there are no morals in foreign policy, if anything India has been very assertive.
Ah yes the kyiv for three days simulations.
Intimidate, hahaha. You meant to make us angry
Hey VisualPolitik team, protip: If there's any "x" in a Chinese name, if its before an "i" its pronounced as an "s", e.g. "Xi" or "Xin", if its before a "u" its pronounced like "sh", e.g. "Xue" or "Xu"
While the map showing how close Ukraine's supporters to do contrast, one must also consider the fact that Ukraine has a flat land border and Taiwan has 100 miles of ocean. Another big factor is that landing and trying to make a beach head would be complicated, as there are only a few places on the island big enough for China to land such a force.
Oh, and the weather. Even for D-Day, Eisenhower and his team were watching the weather closely when trying to decide when to move. The English Channel is not only much smaller than the Taiwan Straight, but it also gets typhoons between May and October. Mother Nature could really screw up logistics, communications and cause China to dump a bunch of seasick, soaked soldiers on the island (if they were lucky enough to survive the trip).
I sincerely hope all of this is just speculation and hypothesis, as such an event would just be horrible. The "One China" policy agreed to by the US and most of the world recognizes "one China" but I hope that cooler heads prevail and we collectively push both sides to search for a diplomatic solution. It might seem impossible, but it's definitely better than the alternative.
I don't think you will see an invasion, more likely a blockade with consessions on sovereignity and trade demaded.
Your mistake is to assume that China will have to make a successful amphibious landing to win a war with Taiwan. They can just take a leaf from Israel's books and bombard Taiwan until they surrender. Taiwan's geography works against them. There is nowhere to hide. China could expend 50% of their accumulated munitions on the island, and at the end of it there would be nothing bigger than a grapefruit left on the island. Or they can bombard on alternate weeks, with every other week being a ceasefire to allow civilians and/or military personnel to evacuate. Once everybody leaves, they drop a flag from a plane and "reclaim" the island. Nobody need to step foot on the island. That would be a useful thing if it is a nuclear wasteland by that point.
During WWII, USA did not dare to land on Formosa and the Pescadores. Instead, the US fleets hopped onto Okinawa.
True enough. Furthermore as far as I understand it the west coast of Taiwan has very shallow waters leading to only a few places (big)ships can actually land their supplies. So tricky easy to hit logistics. Doing an amphibious landing, probably the most complex millitairy operation, with a de facto green army is rather optimistic. You can train all you like and have an army that looks great on parades but you only will see the 'real' army in combat. How much operational combat experience has china? Eeehm, zero? Furthermore China is extremely vulnerable to blockades as it imports a lot of stuff it really needs ( e.g. food, 60-70%). Now Xi is not the brightest light bulb on the eastern hemisphere so stupid actions are allways an option.
@bctvanw I didn't know that but it doesn't surprise me. I do know the Americans bombed the island a few times. A landing would have been tough.
The real question should be if the US population are willing to go in a war with China and are willing to loose countless people in the war?
The US has become the most warlike country in the last century or so.
You really don't understand the American payche.
Many Americans are already calling for a war against China now..not even in some distant point in the future.
The real question is, Does the Chinese population at large (not the CCP) willing to lose tens of millions of their people in a war against the US?
Jorge the Chinese would get slaughtered in this hypothetical war.
Yes. Yes we are.
No more appeasement.
@@0816M3RC how?? why do people assume that us/nato have infinite supply of ammunitions lmao, bud ukraine is draining your supply reserve and bullets/shells dont grow on trees. dont forget us has a influx of military age male migrants.
Let the show begin
The United States' One-China policy was first stated in the Shanghai Communiqué of 1972: "the United States acknowledges that Chinese on either side of the Taiwan Strait maintain there is but one China and that Taiwan is a part of China.
As always, the easiest war to win is the one which doesn't happen; the one you prevent. So to prevent this one, the US and its allies must drive up the cost to China to such a degree that it will not even consider such a thing.
You do this three ways - 1) By building military capacity in the region to an unprecedented level, 2) de-coupling from China as much as possible, as quickly as possible and 3) carving away their allies, one by one.
You out-gun it militarily, starve it economically and isolate it diplomatically. Wars cost a lot of money and China's economic position is already precarious enough and it also has a well earned reputation as a regional and global diplomatic bully; two areas which the west can exploit. They've so far not been especially good at it; dear old Uncle Sam has not always been known for his own soft touch either but they can do it if they put the effort in.
You are right, but it may not be possible. China is probably going to need an external conflict in order to avoid an internal revolution, because their demographics indicate that their economy cannot sustain itself.
This plan cannot work. Imagine that you succeed. Taiwan declares independence, and China is so cowed, they do nothing. Victory !!! Then 5 years later an isolationist POTUS is elected. China attacks Taiwan, captures it in a month, because help doesn't come. The US does not respond. Next election cycle 3 years after that, he loses the election.
What are you gonna do? Start a new war to recapture the island? Remember that 90% of the population was lost in the first war. Dead, fled to other countries, or relocated by China to other parts of their country. The island now have a pro-PRC majority. Even if you could win back the island, it would be even more devastated after another war, and who are you going to settle there? The island is just 100 miles from China. You win it, they're just going to take it back in a couple of years. It isn't defensible in the long term.
A proper stable solution would be to relocate Taiwan to somewhere else. I suggest that they buy an island somewhere else and move the country there. Just let China have Taiwan. The purchase can be financed by selling land in Taiwan to people in the PRC. This would be a negotiated settlement to the Chinese civil war, with both sides working cooperatively to a final resolution.
We don't really know what China's Economic Position is, but we know ours. We're up to our ears in Debt. And China is successfully using Tik Tok to teach our Sons to have 7 second attention spans, and our Daughters that dancing like a stripper doesn't count if it's only for 7 seconds. Meanwhile they're using their own version of Tik Tok to teach their people that the CCP is Faultless, the West is Depraved and Evil, and whipping up Nationalist Fervour that Taiwan is rightfully theirs. Build our own Semi-Conductor Factories, and let them have Taiwan. Then let them get into as much Debt as we're all in trying to maintain that massive Military...
The best way to win a war is to do so without fighting
the ultimate victory
China has always said they want a peaceful unification with Taiwan. Meanwhile US has done nothing but talk about war.
Taiwan has two great assets. It is an island, it is extremely mountainous. It is effectively a fortress surrounded by a moat. Switzerland just has mountains, but it has effectively deterred invasions. In the 19th and 20th century, it has used the "stratégie du réduit national" (national redoubt) by turning it's mountains into a fortress to run to and fight from in case of invasion. In 1939, Switzerland fortified the Alps, trained it's troops to fight in the mountains, prepared to evacuate the plains (critical industry, population, military forces) towards the mountains in case of attack. Bridges and tunnels were rigged to explode cutting access to invaders (Nazi Germany).
Taiwan should take inspiration from Switzerland, use the hedgehog strategy of deterrence. You can try to invade, but the costs will be so high so as not to make it worthwhile.
Taiwan is way ahead of Switzerland
@@ROTHSTEIN01 Really? I disagree. Swits ahead of Taiwan in this defence terms
@@lapislazuli5451 what ?
@@ROTHSTEIN01 yes, I mean it
yeah the US said FUCK THAT during ww2 when they had complete sea and air domination. That island is giant fortress. They would need DDAY times 10 to take it.
Thank you. I think VP's analysis overlooks an important factor which every other analysis I've read overlooks: Taiwan is MUCH more useful to the Communist Party as a break-away province. Taiwan is the raison d'être for the existence of the Party. It is very similar to playing a high level chess game. The threat is often more useful than the attack. You heard it here first.
Absolutely agree. The CCP uses the situation to drum up mainland nationalism more than anything else; the threats and vows over Taiwan are the rhetoric that the CCP would prefer to use indefinitely if they have to...after all this has been the status quo for over half a century...why sabotage a valuable propaganda tool with a war?
CCP does not have competition lol.. They need no political drama like in the democrazy countries.
what did I just watch? bro you sure Taiwan is that weak?
17:00 this stuff about china's fleet size is always garbage, they are counting every llike little "maritime vessel" and canoe as a major military ship. the amount of ships in your flee it unimportant to what the ships can do. 300 ships made for smashing small filipino fishing vessels from their own territory, arent gonna like... overwhelm a carrier strike group.
many of these little boats carry half a dozen or more antiship missiles which are as deadly as a much larger vessel against any surface ship.
In littoral waters like around taiwan, smaller ships actually perform better because they can hide in the shallows and get closer to the shores.
What are the chances of going nuclear if the US bombs china's huge coastal cities?
Typical American attitude. Bigger is better. When in fact, more is better.
6:11 Taiwan army ain’t Playing, never seen tank units training to shoot target on water getting ready to fight off an amphibious invasion.
I can't help laughing.
🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣☝️
🤣🤣🤣🤣🤣☝️
One things for sure, those who have profited on war and destruction will win. That’s why there won’t be a war. Brothers of the same family don’t need no bully to force them to fight each other.
About the only thing I agree with this video is that it all starts with Taiwan being armed to the teeth and its people willing to resist for as long as it takes. Taiwan's survival depend on those things only and not so much American support or assistance in the opening hours, days and perhaps even weeks after opening hostilities. Under the best of circumstances, it's hard to believe that US military would be stationed in force on the island helping to actively defend. No, Taiwan in the beginning would have to be on its own operating defense systems, mobilizing and responding to attacks by the PLA.
Some of numerous things I disagree with this video...
The conclusions of the CSIS wargaming which I suspect was skewed to produce results for political gain. The only scenarios the US would suffer large numbers would be if the US rushed in recklessly to attack China without regard to its own health. The US military has never in its history (except cases in Vietnam) displayed poor military judgement. There are maybe individual incidents the US military has suffered losses like in Somalia and Afghanistan, but never for reasons of faulty doctrine which would result in the numbers the CSIS wargames suggest. And for good reason, the US has a number of battlefield advantages that would ensure success without extensive loss including China's inability to detect US strategic bombers, the inferiority of the J-20 vs the F-22, the superior investment of the US in training a volunteer military vs China's largely conscripted, untrained forces, China's lack of technology including fanjet engines.
In particular, the Chinese only a year ago started implementing its own indigenous fanjet engine in the J-10, and another a couple weeks ago in the J-20. As first generation engines, it's unlikely that those engines have anywhere close to the combination of performance and serviceability of American aircraft. Once could almost expect that after a week of wartime tempo, the PLAAF would be flying only 20% of their aircraft at a time while American aircraft should be flying up to 80% of the time in theater. That goes a long ways towards evening out any suggested inferiority of numbers of American aircraft, much less taking into account tech superiorities.
Speaking of aircraft, I think it's also telling that Taiwan is flying only F-16 tactical fighter aircraft and not the F-35 or even the F-15. Taiwan is expected to receive new deliveries of the latest version of the F-16 V late 2024 which should keep Taiwan's aircraft's technological edge over the PLAAF.
Air cover for both the PLA and Taiwan is important, but this video also does not clearly what kind of conflict Taiwan is supposed to defend itself against... Merely an attack inflicting destruction or an actual invasion? If an attack only, there's probably little Taiwan can do but survive the onslaught. Should China attack Taiwan, you'd think unlike Russia that China will be well stocked with missiles that can do enormous damage and hit targets accurately. But it's unlikely that China would ever be able to build an invading capability. It should be noted that if China attempted an amphibious landing by crossing the Taiwan Strait in surface ships, traversing the Strait under ideal weather conditions would still take about 3 hours. That's a long time to be vulnerable to fire and Taiwan could actually wait until the amphibious transport was barely off the beaches before sinking them. It makes little difference when amphibious transport is sunk, they just can't be allowed to make landfall. Any attempt by helicopter would require aircraft China doesn't have in quantity and doesn't know how to manufacture. An enormous helicopter fleet would have to be purchased from Russia and personnel trained to operate and support. An air drop would require air superiority or domination and extensive training. Additionally, any landing would require a large enough force to take an airfield or port to bring in heavier military equipment. Any successful invasion at first would be limited to what they can carry until a port or airfield can be captured and until then would be met with ground forces, artillery and Abrams.
Bottom line is that invading an island like Taiwan would never be an easy task even if highly skilled, trained and equipped, and the PLA isn't any of that today or for several years. If the PLA is seen to actually be doing things that threaten Taiwan or US military supremacy, then unless Taiwan and the US are asleep they will respond appropriately so that the PLA will always be disadvantaged.
為什麼美國不直接駐軍台灣並宣布納入核保護傘，如果中國入侵台灣就對中國核打擊
You raise a lot of fair points, and present them in a cogent way, but I will say one thing: Taiwan will not have long to wait for meaningful U.S. support .. because the U.S. is already there, and I'm not talking about just some ground forces (or anything else stationed on the island) either. The USA is a Pacific power, and whether Beijing likes it or not, it is there to stay.
@@rgohoo 戰略外交
We have learned a lot from the Russian invasion of Ukraine. (1) Whatever your ammunition and supply levels, they are not enough, (2) Logistics is critical in modern warfare. Ukraine and the west are doing this well, Russia is not, (3) High tech weapons like HYMARS cannot be produced fast enough to replace those used in battle. Hopefully this is being addressed by our military leaders.
The military cost of an actual invasion on the US & Japan would be high, but if China actually tried to send ships filled with troops to invade Taiwan, the Chinese losses would be horrendous and potentially could cause the CCP huge problems at home, especially if they were unsuccessful. The world economy runs on Taiwanese computer chips, and a war would probably cause a global recession. If the chip production facilities were destroyed in Taiwan, either by Chinese attacks or deliberate Taiwanese destruction if it looked like China was going to win, China would be forced to buy these chips from the only other countries that can make them: US, South Korea and Japan, its three opponents in this invasion. An attack on US bases and military would result in a complete blockade of any ships going to China or leaving Chinese ports, something that geography makes ridiculously easy since shipping must pass through narrow gaps between the island chains surrounding China. The US and others (including Taiwan) are looking at increasing production outside of Taiwan to mitigate somewhat the disaster the loss of high-end chips would cause if China attempted an invasion or blockade.
This doesn't mean that there will not be an invasion. If the proper intelligence had been available to Putin and logic had been used, he would have either not invaded at all or used a much larger military force from the start, before Ukraine was armed like it is today by the west. Both China and Russia have dictators in charge who may be insulated from realities on the ground, surrounded by "yes" men who tell Putin/Xi what they want to hear.
I'm not an expert in anything, but I learned from reading your stuff that it's a great strength to live in reality, and a weakness to be delusional. I will take comfort in that.
It's a choke point for major international trade routes too.
And so of China starts putting its fleet closer to Okinawa or its other close by bases its not just Usa China contends with, it's Usa allies that use those routes and bases too.
Tes
Interesting that you mentioned China's and US' perspectives but not Taiwan's.
I think that a PaTO patterned similar to NATO buy with improvements could work well to deter Chinese conquest.
PATO means duck (the bird) in Filipino. The Philippines will just laugh while battling China in case of a Taiwan invasion.
Who's gonna join? The US, Australia, Japan, South Korea? You're not adding anyone who would already follow wherever the US leads. And you'll have a hard time getting anybody else to join. The US today have this awful reputation where everybody would think they're only signing up to become pawns of the US.
they tried that in the 70s. SEATO but it fell apart because all of asia has alot of petty disputes with each other and nobody likes each other enough to want to respond to someone elses security issues.
Sure it's been tried before. Back when there was no real threat to everyone's security. Just like Europe in the early 2000's NATO started to fizzle out because the USSR no longer posed an existential threat to everyone.
But Russia suddenly starts acting aggressively towards weaker neighbors and ask if a sudden there's legitimate need for NATO again.
Currently China poses a pretty severe threat towards many smaller neighbors where no threat existed before. Whether through damming of rivers to the point where downriver countries are facing drought like conditions, or whether through territorial expansion in the south China Sea or whether through outright conquest as is threatened in Taiwan, or whether just through trade/economic predatory behavior. There's one specific and major threat that no one or even two nations in the area could hope to stand up to.
@@calebbearup4282 again outside of some disputes of islands in the south china seas there is no real military threat to countries in asia from china. China has not shown any interest in invading anyone other that Taiwan and it has so many economic ties to many of the countries in the region, that any defense alliance against china would quickly fall apart to chinese lobbying and economic leverage.
Not to mention many of these countries have overlapping territorial claims on the south china seas as well. Meaning allies could every bit as likely go to war with each other over some islands vs going to war with china over said islands.
2:30 Taiwan does not need to declare independance, here's why. Consider that the relationship between the US and the UK is analogous to that of China and Taiwan. In 1776, the United States declared its independence from the UK, marking the culmination of a revolutionary war. Similarly, in 1949, China declared its independence from Taiwan, ending their civil war. In both instances, the larger, younger country-China and the United States-separated from an older, already independent island nation-Taiwan and the UK, respectively.
The idea of a country already independent-such as the UK or Taiwan-declaring independence again is incongruous. Just as it is accepted that the UK doesn't need to declare independence from the USA, Taiwan should not need to declare independence from China, because both island nations were already recognized as independent entities when the younger countries separated. The scenario of the United States asserting that the UK belongs to it, or the idea of Taiwan "reunifying" with China, appears just as absurd to the Taiwanese. It's akin to the idea of the UK "reunifying" with the USA, a notion most would consider ridiculous.
This parallelism extends beyond just the political, with linguistic similarities further supporting the analogy. The differences between Taiwanese Mandarin and Chinese Mandarin are reminiscent of the variances between British English and American English. In each case, a local speaker can readily identify whether someone is Chinese or Taiwanese, or British or American, by the initial utterances made.
By examining these historical, political, and linguistic aspects, we gain a deeper truth, fostering a more comprehensive perspective.
then why does taiwan still call itself the ‘republic of china?’
@@user-uh5bx1zg7b If you actually read what I wrote, you would know It is the same answer as "then why does Britain still call itself the ‘UK?’", imagine if the USA named itself 'New UK' when it declared independence, should the original UK change its name?
I get what you’re saying but it’s not quite the same. The US declared independence from Britain but the CCP’s China didn’t declare independence from Taiwan’s China, they had a revolution to become the new ruling party of China and essentially succeeded. Essentially Taiwan is what’s left of the former ruling power in a civil war that basically had a cease fire and never really concluded. Only time will tell how it ends.
Jesus, look at your argument, you think it is logical?! everyone on earth acknowledges UK as an independent country, how many acknowledge Taiwan?!
@@tianxiabai1185 That means jack shit. If every nation in the world today stopped recognizing the US as a nation what would that mean? Nothing. The US would go on doing business as usual. Just like how Taiwan has been. As long as China can't physically take Taiwan, not a single nation has to recognize Taiwan. Taiwan just has to recognize its own government. Nothing stops them from being a nation. And if China starts a war, not only will it hurt because of Taiwan defending itself but even if it manages to win the powers of the world will economically f*** with China until it is desolate over however many years it takes. I'm just glad Russia kick started all this by invading Ukraine. LOL even Xi wasn't expecting this cause Putin lied to him about it.
Head. It’s my favorite thing.
Rice. What is that?
Last night? I ate a cat.
Yes.
One important thing to notice was that is most scenarios, the us would lose TWO aircraft carriers. And, the report notes: the US would be unable to replace them because current infrastructure is only sufficient to replace aging carriers, not to add any.
I've read the same thing. They certainly wouldn't be able to replace those overnight, but if America decided they had to be replaced in the short term, like in other wars, American industry would gear up and do so over a several year period. The scenarios you mention, even the most pessimistic of them, have the USA and it's allies winning the war and China losing over 120 warships.
@@alkers372 that would be the absolute best case scenario and dream results for the US, which I highly doubt about it tbh. The only possibility for that to happen is the war took place right in front of the American door step, not China’s. Otherwise the US airforce and Navy won’t stand a good chance to survive from China’s defence.
Do you realize what the American industry built for World War II in a matter of months?
It can't be understated that China can't take those losses compared to the U.S. especially Taiwan. China has a problem with old people. A war where the young go and fight would be devastating for the long run. Also would most likely be the downfall of the CCP with or without a conquered Taiwan. But your point on other powers using the war to their benefit is extremely likely. 🤔 great vid
China would have to pull off an amphibious invasion bigger then d-day and there is only a small seasonal window where that could take place. So it would be pretty obvious when they were coming. If they made it across the straight, the terrain of taiwan would make every beach landing far more difficult then the omaha beach landing. Even if they did get off the beaches, they would then have to have a mountain/jungle war across all of Taiwan. Omaha was so deadly because of cliffs, in taiwan theyre mountains. After the allies took the beachs on d-day the biggest thing that then slowed them down was hedge rows, in taiwan its jungles and mountains.
in reality china would just pound taiwan into submission until they give into political demands. taiwan could be sent back to the stone age by mainland bombardment and disease/starvation would take out a large chunk of the island's population.
It might sound cruel but this is how medieval sieges typically ended.
@@hughmungus2760 One problem...China wants to capture Taiwan mostly 'intact' due to their industry and also, it would heavily publicize...which is kind of bad. So yea, if they decide to go with massive bombardment...they would realistically be shooting themselves in the foot both short and long term.
Attacking is more difficult than defending.
What's been the track record of the U.S. since the 1960's?
Cut and run.
What do you think will happen if they ever fight China?
They will do nothing but lip services, sorry my honest opinion lol. And even sanctions wise, as if there’s any further sanctions we can possibly apply to china without hurting our economy too much, the US already done everything possible during the trade war, there’s no other options we have from the west, plus under the current global economic situation, the west needs China soooo much more then ever before, without the economic growth from China or Chinese market, who’s gonna buy these cars, bags, computers ets we produce? Definitely not Taiwan hahaha.
It would be interesting to see the stance of countries such as Vietnam, Indonesia, Singapore, and the Philippines etc .if such a conflict were to happen
They will be watching carefully to see who will win and align themself with the winner. If Taiwan falls into China’s hands, US military dominance in Asia Pacific is over.
Well Vietnam hates China.
All but Singapore have territorial dispute with China.
A: No-one would win, different sides might lose by differing amounts.
There are always winners in wars and the winners are the ones who didn't surrender.
@@cashewnuttel9054 you are incorrect, no war has ever had a winner.
What you think of as a winner is just the one deemed to have the lowest net loss.
@@Craznar The Allies won WW2. The European colonizers won their wars of conquest against the natives of their colonies. The natives of colonies won their war for independence. South Korea sort of won their war against the North. CCP won their war against the Nationalists. The USA won their war against Mexico. Vietnam won their war against the USA. The Romans won their wars of conquest for a time to able to build their empire.
There are a lot of instances where there are clear winners in war.
And if you don't like war then you might as well exterminate the human race or keep its population to an absolute possible minimum because for as long as humans are around or are around in large numbers, there will always be wars because of something called human nature.
@@cashewnuttel9054 WW2 : Allies 61 million dead, Axis 12 million dead, Russia 20 million dead.
SO yeah, The Allies didn't win ...
@@yuyoshida2076 I said they "sort of won". They won prosperity, a functioning government, and they are not suffering like many third world countries.
Isn't that "sort of a win"?
One aircraft carrier group ought to do it.
It seems wild to think that the nation producing all the chips doesnt already have a massive droid army
The Gundam defence.
Taiwan really leaning into their period as part of Japan there.
@@xanderreyno I cant help but think of swarm carriers that drop air, land and sea drones.... and cluster missiles. If only metal storm and gauss cannon weapon tech took off
Taiwan needs to do more to provide for its own defense. They only recently changed their conscription law to one year of service. It takes a year to train an infantryman. This means that they'll be discharging them just after they achieve proficiency. They need to retain them for at least 4 years and build their training pipeline for 800-1000 men per week. They will need every soldier they can get their hands on when the battle starts. Also, defense spending needs to be doubled. Begin asymmetrical warfare training and positioning. Covert operations capabilities should be established on the mainland because it will be a target rich environment and vital to interfering with the invasion. Also, Taiwan should begin undermining the CCPs moral authority to rule. The Chinese people already distrust their government. The political attacks on the CCPs incompetence, corruption and illegitimacy should be early and often.
see taiwan;s intelligence capabilities are abysmal because the current pro-independence party is actively in conflict with the KMT which historically makes up much of the military and police forces on the island. Half the senior military officers would sooner see the PLA take over than be replaced by some 'pan green' political appointee flagrantly disregards the constitution of the ROC. For them the only thing worse than a commie is a treasonous secessionist.
China is also the last place you want to try covert ops because of its survailance state and incredibly efficient counterintelligence ops. Even the CIA gets its face torn off when they try to go into china.
I often wonder why they don't engage in the discussion of why only the Chinese People are incapable of becoming a free people. Taiwan has been very successful and is an excellent model of what China could be if they become a free nation. They need a Radio Free China effort!!!!
There is no catching up with China's enormous leap in defense. The disparity is too great by the population and productivity levels. Even the US is afraid. And forget about offensive covert operation. They are all CHINESE and much more likely Taiwan have been infiltrated with China's sleeper agents. They all better off having a peaceful reunification because the main enemy are the western nations who always want to divide growing nations to maintain their old imperialistic hegemony.
@@dennishassler605 Because chinese people already believe they are free. Free from western imperialism and to determine their own national destiny.
Despite what you might think chinese people do get news from outside of china and they see the freakshows in so called 'free' countries. Nobody wants to see the chaos you have in the US or Europe on chinese streets or watch western backed puppets turn their countries into warzones.
The political attacks on the CCPs incompetence, corruption and illegitimacy should be early and often.
As a Chinese, I don't see that
Invading Taiwan would be very costly for China. It would be very difficult for China to get troops on Taiwan without massive losses. Ukraine managed to repel Russia with a poorly trained and equipped military. Taiwan on the other hand has a large, well trained, and well equipped military. Not to mention China would end up like Russia, isolated, and sanctioned by the West causing their economy to retract significantly.
Western commentators make the mistake of thinking that China has to take the entire Island. It doesn't, as long as it is able to land its troops and create a military presence on the island it would have won.
Taiwan isn't Ukraine, and China isn't Russia.
Taiwan is the Donbas. A separatist region of the country, operating effectively beyond the control of the central government, claiming to be a separate country, but without international support. The central government is prevented from reclaiming control by force, because the breakaway region is being supported by another stronger country.
China is Ukraine, the US is Russia.
@@danielch6662 You got that bass ackwards. Taiwan is NOT the Donbas. For one, the Donbas has a land border with Russia. Taiwan does not.
Secondly, the Chinese military's tussles with the Indian military have shown that they are just as unruly and unprofessional as the Russian military.
@@davidford3115in real war, china will fight two front war with India on eastern front and US military on the western front.
@@ROTHSTEIN01 I hope so. But I don't think the Indians have been convinced to join that fight just yet. They have their own priorities to worry about which I entirely understand. The trick is, can the West convince India that it is in their best interest to join the battle?
16:20 You might be the only commentor pointed this out. A lot of commentors only see the advantage of surrounding sea in prevention of a land invasion, but they neglect the problem with foreigh military aid to arrive in taiwan.
"China is launching 6 new aircraft carriers?" You kinda doubled the number.
All I'm going to say is supply chains. Atm the usa holds upper hand over china due to china's needs mainly coming through the sea. If Russia had pivoted over the last 8-9 years to do pipe lines for gas and crude to China instead China as we soak would be in a vastly different position and the supply lines issue would turn to the usa when talking about the ability to project power to forces at Taiwan. Yes I know oil and gas isn't the only supply issue for China but its the main one they would face in terms of sections or a embargo as you know the usa and their allies wouldn't be able to halt stuff coming from Russia or central Asia which could act as 3rd party buyers for China for certain goods
Do you even realize that US are pretty much import most of their stuff especially from china? So i dont think that US have the upper hand of supply chain.
If Taiwan faces China alone, they would likely lose the initial conflict while inflicting heavy losses on China making China's best-case scenario a pyhrric victory. Holding the island would be difficult for China given the local resistance they would face. And the combination of the initial and long-term conflicts would likely destroy anything of strategic value in Taiwan rendering such a "victory" purely symbolic.
Now add in the costs of economic sanctions, the political fall-out with China's neighbors, and it becomes clear that the US military involvement is not required to forge an adequate deterrent to war. Adding in US military support, as well as that of Japan, South Korea and likely one or more defense coalitions in the Pacific and SE Asia and it becomes clear that China cannot win such a war. Attempting to blockade the island without declaring war or taking direct military action against the island as a means of coercion is a far more likely scenario. It's a dangerous game of chicken, but it's one in which China might win concessions it could not get by peace or by war.
An interesting question is whether Vietnam, the Philippines and perhaps other countries would want to get involved.
I had the same thought but when I looked at the Ukraine war, then I knew no one will be REALLY involved, apart from lip services 😂
@@vincent860212 NATO troops are on the ground in Ukraine. Not in large numbers but they're there. Whether they'll do the same for Taiwan, I kind of doubt.
@@AllAhabNoMoby would be much harder, since Taiwan is an island
@@vincent860212 Yep, fortunately for the Taiwanese!
just like computers cant simulate poor drivers while simulating traffic.
Why is there never any mention of the US and India cooperating in the event Taiwan is attacked. I know India is usually only interested in India, but perhaps they will be willing to learn that working with the US to confront China is really in their best interest. While India is not known for its military prowess, they can be a formidable force if properly led and encouraged.
India can open another front, don't forget India actually has Tibetans in her army
6 chinese carriers? Dont think so. 3 so far
Note: PRC was not on the side of the Viet Namese during the Viet Nam war, as Viet Nam were (and still are) rivals. It was the USSR that supplied Viet Nam with arms and expertise. The US did however engage in armed conflict with the PRC during the Korean War.
Between 1950 and 1970, China supplied over $20B in military and economic aid to Vietnam. Their contribution was huge. it was only afterwards, in 1979, when Vietnam invaded China's ally, Cambodia, that relations soured and a war was fought.
@@alkers372 China support pol pot? Woah! Never knew 'bout that!
Cool shirt
The war would be about more than just Taiwan, democracy, or semiconductors, it would be about control of the South China Sea and whether we get to trade with Asia in general. Moreover, the Phillipines would also be at stake if Taiwan fell and that situation was to be left as is. I think this would be the biggest war most of us have ever seen in our times, and it would be inescapable. While the fair point was made that we would probably win in the short run, but be behind on re-arming ourselves in the future, the possibility that the CCP could be toppled internally following a failed war would be the best news by far.
A war would be unlimited and short. Once TSMC etc is destroyed, USA has zero chips to replace a 1st strike and cannot defend. USA has no defence against hyper sonic, and has no hyper sonic. The Navy is floating ducks, easily sunk. The only real threat is the submarines, and these are trackable and can be countered before they launch. As the USA attempts a 1st strike, China will strike the US mainland. Once amurcunts see their cities vapourised, they may realise war means the world destruction. The majority of people on the planet want the planet to continue, so the amurcunts will revolt and sue for peace before they are too late.
copium
"If South Vietnam falls to communism, then its all over"
Guess what? Taiwan's democrazy is actually a good example to mainland Chinese that do not put public decisions to unprofessional uneducated votes.
菲律賓為什麼不歸還中華民國在南海的島嶼呢？
To a certain extent strategic ambiguity is advantageous because it would make much less likely a surprise first strike upon US assets, which did happen in CSIS's wargame. If China is convinced that the US will help Taiwan if invaded then US deterrent value is already no less than it would be without strategic ambiguity. If China is not convinced, then the US retains the ability to strike first against China if they do invade.
Moreover, it also makes the Taiwanese more willing to stand up for themselves. They are more ready for war than most western & middle European countries.
Yes
@@themc.kennyshow6585 bro, you are joking right? they have reduce their mandatory military training from 2 years to 6 months and most of the recruits reflected that they did not use a rifle during the 6 months of training.When the president tried to lengthen the training from 6 months to 1 year, she was faced with strong opposition
Two points: 1) The Strait between Luzon and Taiwan is vital for World trade, making US/Japanese/UK/Australian/Philippine intervention mandatory, and 2) China imports the majority of its petroleum and food, so closing the Strait of Molucca would significantly cripple Chinese capabilities.
You have some good points and resources here but there’s also so many things to consider and factor into this equation. 1, Information & deception, are the details we have truly accurate or is there an alternative motive or message with its release for example. 2, geographic conditions of both China & Taiwan. Geography plays such a significant force on warfare & logistics. An hour and easily be spent summarizing each nation’s and how it would affect things. 3, true technologies capabilities and then the ability to actually execute. For example China may have more ships but that doesn’t mean they are truly great or effective. Same goes for troops. China’s true military numbers have always been deceptive. Everyone seems to focus on their peak numbers which always drop 2-3 months after students graduate school because they leave the indoctrination classes. all those students are counted as members of their military until they leave. Most wouldn’t qualify to actually be able to serve/ fight for China. Then you have actual logistics, then economics, global support, experience of troops and their morale/ motivations or willingness to fight and die. So many issues to review and discuss. More and more I’m less concerned about a war. I think China would get desperate and attack but it would end relatively quick and only accelerate china’s collapse.
Think the most likely scenario is that China takes a page out of the US's strategy and blockades Taiwan similarly to the Cuban missile crisis. Where it goes from there is hard to guess, probably a series of minor escalations that lead to war. I don't think China will strike with a bolt out of the blue attack. That would only serve to rally US allies and the world in general against this war and China is aware that one of the most important things to monitor is the will to fight of the American populace in general. Bolt out of the blew would be similar to the attack on Pearl Harbor and we know how that ended.
I agree a "soft" blockade is a far more likely scenario. Possibly slowing trade down but not completely cutting of the island. Extended war games, missile tests, etc. With an intent to gain Taiwanese concessions and keep chips from reaching the west.
@@JWPanimationimpossible, a blockade is an act of war, US military will clear any such blockade
@@ROTHSTEIN01 of course it is, that does not mean China won't do it. They have done it before when Pelosi visted.
@@ROTHSTEIN01 U just rename it like the US did and then not so scary say for example quarrantine, lol
@@guitarninjarick8179 what?
Island state, Mountainous, high density of defensive equipment, strong cultural sense of independence.
Even with no help, China will not have fun invading.
Also US help will happen depending on how much of the advanced chips production was still in Taiwan. If China was to invade tomorrow, the US would 100% engage. Since losing Taiwan chokes the world of advanced chips atm.
AUKUS might drag the UK into the fight but it's shrunken military might mean its contribution is token. Yes the UK has two new (only occasionally working) carriers but has too few escorts capable of serious war fighting
At this point I don't think we wanna find out