I’d love a world where John was Housing Minister. So thoughtful. “If you want homes to be affordable for families, it can’t be a cash cow for investors” - absolutely. It’s not all or nothing, but the balance got way off in recent years, and I agree that’s not the right path for our society. Living in Vancouver, we’ve really seen that a world of exponentially rising home prices, with rents that follow, creates a society with a lot of vulnerable people and deep problems that come with that.
Keep up the great work - I couldn't agree more with your philosophy! I always think of Maslow's hierarchy of needs...just take those basic fundamentals (food, health, housing) out of the profit-driven market (that doesn't mean efficiency should be ignored). Everything else is fair game in my opinion.
Congratulations, Dr. John. I am extremely proud of your achievements academically and otherwise, and especially of your work in empowering the public with knowledge. I am sure you will be different from other PhD holders who end up being " Permanent Head Damages" Good Luck at all times. RR
@@john_pasalisdo the people doing academic work on housing markets understand that every year during which housing cost appreciation outpaces income growth constitutes a year in which quality of life decreased? Do they understand that the American expectation for home prices to outpace incomes forever is mathematically impossible because implies portion of income spent on housing approaches 100%? Do they talk a responsible amount about long term vacancy taxes, or do they not talk about that a lot? Do they understand that the widespread beliefs about home prices and the economy are mostly wrong? That, while decreasing home prices are slightly negative for an economy, low prices (important distinction) are phenomenally good for economies?
Because housing, actually everything that others create/build, costs money and you can incorporate luxuries into literally anything. Having running water and electricity was once a luxury. People say "shelter" like its a damn lean-to made of sticks in the forest. If someone is going to take on massive risk buying something, even a house, then they should profit if that market goes up.
@jasonj4326 A lean-to doesn't keep the cold from killing you and doesn't provide safety, let alone an address to put on a resume. What you are saying boils down to if you don't make enough money you should die. That is why necessities to live shouldn't be profitable, if you require something even get a job then charging for it is making it impossible for a class of people to live.
@@huskavarnapunkband ya investors probably do make money off almost everything, because they invested, meaning they took a risk with their money and are now watching it grow. If you have RRSP's you're an investor, congratulations.
Congrats John, in your research what is the reason that when the average wage in Canada is not rising in double digits then why is it that the home prices keep going up. If it’s only because of speculation then when does it stop ?
That's a good question, and there isn't a perfect or easy answer. But the short answer (at least from my perspective) is that decades ago when homes were simply shelter (and a long term investment) for families - housing was largely constrained by incomes. As homes have become a financial asset for the rich, house prices are not constrained by income - they are driven by the amount of capital (money) flowing into housing. That's how home prices in Toronto can hit 10X the median income when households can only get a mortgage that is 4.5X their income
I don’t think it’s devils advocate, he’s been quite clear about what he thinks and this is based on his doctoral work- he’s clearly trying to make a point.
Congratulations John! After 40yrs of financializing housing it will be interesting to see how we can return to affordable home ownership while keeping the monetary music going. Especially here in Canada where the housing industry plays a huge roll in our economic prosperity. The political struggle between the "boomer" and the "zoomer" is just getting started. Thanks for the channel, the discussions are always insightful and well done.
Take a breath Prof. He’s a mature student and chose not to go to yet another convocation. It doesn’t diminish his accomplishment nor his enthusiasm. Your students, presumably much younger, will go to their convocation and are hopefully mature enough to not be influenced by the preferences of any TH-camr.
Low rise is supply-limited by Greenbelt. The relationship to rents of low rise is limited as there is also the potential to sell the land for conversion to higher density. There is also potential to sell to a large potential of land rich (previous SFH) homeowners or their immediate relatives. This would lead to a faster appreciation while the Greenbelt and mass immigration are priced into the market. This would cause the house price to income multiple to expand to factor this in until it reaches a point where you get a large number of people leaving to other regions in Canada and US/International. This would be the equilibrium. Wages, of course, do not rise meaningfully for most people except maybe at the very bottom.
I know a builder in Ontario close to a big city chargin 550k to build a single family detached home 1700sf, they don’t do any social media ad (small builder) but publish on MLS and I think it’s not a unique situation. There is some stills affordable pockets in Ontario.
John what do you think about the following: The only solution to housing problems is if the government gets involved. If they say to immigrants, you need to live in low province population for the first 5 years in order to get Canadians citizenship, many will stay in these low population provinces after 5 years. Older people will retire and move out of big cities and supply of low rise housing will increase. Another way the government can involved is they sell land directly to Canadians because the government owns 90% of land in Canada. There are many people who work remotely and can buy piece of land 3 hours away from major cities and build home on it.
Here is an idea…. Anyone who lives in a condo, pays half maintenance fees while those that do not actually live in the same condo pay double. Incentive to live in condos .
I do agree that getting rid of rent control and letting the market sort itself out would ultimately let us build our way out of this crisis. However The process would be ugly for our low income population during a process that would involve a period of multiple years of rapidly increasing homelessness. Eventually once these newly built units sit empty for a period of time (since your potential renters are living in tents) rents will correct themselves to the incomes of the targeted group of renters. IMO this process is political suicide for whoever is in office, and housing eventually corrects anyway.
How about before trying that - rent control doesn't fundamentally cost taxpayers anything - get rid of the demand side stimulus that is currently costing taxpayers 30B annually at the federal level, cut CMHC insurance to some sensible level (100k max sounds good) and offer zero additional subsidized loans etc. to anyone. See how that goes and then consider adjusting things which are already for free. In BC the 'fiscally conservative' con gov has offered up to 36k rebate annually (max 3.5B expense) to pay peoples mortgages. Like, wtf? Why are Canadians always talking about stupid shit that doesn't matter when the gov is wasting such an enormous amount of money propping up re eternally..
@@user-le2hu1ct4t They will prop it up as long as they can. Once it falls it will mark the beginning of Canada's second depression. They don't want that to happen until they escape with their pension and a vice president's job at Loblaws.
Carney's at work lol but we still need to get some money laundering groups in ! TD's fine in the US means we're still the money laundering cap. of N .Amer. lol !!
Why did the government of Canada ban all foreign buyers from the real estate market ? Isn't it pire xenophobia based on a myth that they were taking all the properties when we all know it's not true. And should the rest of the world reciprocate and ban all the Canadians? Since the housing situation is pretty much the same in all big cities of the world where it's expensive to live . Was blaming foreign buyers the solution or pure politics to gain some votes ? We all know the real speculators are Canadians, not foreigners.
Shame on u for not getting excited about ur accomplishments. I'm a university professor and I encourage my students to appreciate what they've accomplished. It's a stepping stone of what ur made of. For u to just brush this off doesn't say much about who u r What will my students say when they hear u say something about this. I praise my students. U just down played it. So again shame on u.
Thank you for the lecture, professor, but I must say it’s a bit unfortunate that you cannot appreciate that different people get different things out of this journey and celebrate and enjoy it in different ways. Much like Cavafy’s Ithaca, all of the treasures for me were found along the journey, not at the destination. They have already been treasured and celebrated every step of the way. For me, the destination did not have a celebratory mood, it was actually a tad melancholy because this wonderful journey had come to an end. Does this mean I didn’t treasure it or celebrate it? Of course not, I just celebrated it every step of the way rather than once at the very end - the way most people do. It is a shame, professor, that you do not have the intellectual curiosity to understand that different people will experience and celebrate their educational journey in a way that is unique to their own lives, intellectual pursuits and lived experiences. Instead, you think everyone should experience it and celebrate it in the way that you think is best. From your comment, I can only conclude that you are not a professor of philosophy because any person who has thought deeply about the human condition would never make the types of assumptions you make about people you know nothing about.
I've completed three degrees and haven't once attended graduation. In large part that's because I did not find the education I received to be meaningful but rather was something more akin to a series of hoops I had to jump through to get where I wanted to be in life. Out of politeness, I wouldn't ordinarily denigrate the work professors do or the pride they take in their work, but if you're going to try to shame someone for not attending their graduation ceremony then you should really come to grips with the fact that people are increasingly of the view that schools offer little of value and are just credentialing institutions that exist for their own benefit.
![[MV] A leap of faith...ความเชื่อใจครั้งสุดท้าย (From "Petrichor the series")](http://i.ytimg.com/vi/U1piZH2CNXA/mqdefault.jpg)
Congratulations! Finally a unbiased and well researched approach we really need that.
I’d love a world where John was Housing Minister. So thoughtful. “If you want homes to be affordable for families, it can’t be a cash cow for investors” - absolutely. It’s not all or nothing, but the balance got way off in recent years, and I agree that’s not the right path for our society. Living in Vancouver, we’ve really seen that a world of exponentially rising home prices, with rents that follow, creates a society with a lot of vulnerable people and deep problems that come with that.
Congratulations John!!!
Thank you!!
Your r an humble man John. Doctorate is an huge deal. Im glad im subscribed to u to watch your weekly videos. 🎉
Thank you! I appreciate it
Fantastic pod!! Wish I could chat more with you on this subject. Great work!
John we want you as the next housing minister 🎉
Haha, thank you! But I love what I do, and I definitely do not have the DNA of a politician
Great show, great insight! Thank you both
Looking forward to more thoughtful conversations like this!
Awesome ! Its great to have a serious educated perspective on this housing crisis. Want to hear more, write a book !
Thank you!
Congrats John! That is a lot of knowledge, thanks for sharing it!
Keep up the great work - I couldn't agree more with your philosophy! I always think of Maslow's hierarchy of needs...just take those basic fundamentals (food, health, housing) out of the profit-driven market (that doesn't mean efficiency should be ignored). Everything else is fair game in my opinion.
Congratulations, Dr. John. I am extremely proud of your achievements academically and otherwise, and especially of your work in empowering the public with knowledge.
I am sure you will be different from other PhD holders who end up being " Permanent Head Damages"
Good Luck at all times.
RR
Thank you, I appreciate your feedback and kind words
@@john_pasalisdo the people doing academic work on housing markets understand that every year during which housing cost appreciation outpaces income growth constitutes a year in which quality of life decreased? Do they understand that the American expectation for home prices to outpace incomes forever is mathematically impossible because implies portion of income spent on housing approaches 100%?
Do they talk a responsible amount about long term vacancy taxes, or do they not talk about that a lot?
Do they understand that the widespread beliefs about home prices and the economy are mostly wrong? That, while decreasing home prices are slightly negative for an economy, low prices (important distinction) are phenomenally good for economies?
Shelter shouldn't be a luxury, why should investors be able to profit from a necessity?
Good discussion though.
Because housing, actually everything that others create/build, costs money and you can incorporate luxuries into literally anything. Having running water and electricity was once a luxury. People say "shelter" like its a damn lean-to made of sticks in the forest. If someone is going to take on massive risk buying something, even a house, then they should profit if that market goes up.
@jasonj4326 A lean-to doesn't keep the cold from killing you and doesn't provide safety, let alone an address to put on a resume. What you are saying boils down to if you don't make enough money you should die. That is why necessities to live shouldn't be profitable, if you require something even get a job then charging for it is making it impossible for a class of people to live.
Don't investors make money off everything you buy already? Including food. !!
@@huskavarnapunkband ya investors probably do make money off almost everything, because they invested, meaning they took a risk with their money and are now watching it grow. If you have RRSP's you're an investor, congratulations.
Congrats John, in your research what is the reason that when the average wage in Canada is not rising in double digits then why is it that the home prices keep going up. If it’s only because of speculation then when does it stop ?
That's a good question, and there isn't a perfect or easy answer.
But the short answer (at least from my perspective) is that decades ago when homes were simply shelter (and a long term investment) for families - housing was largely constrained by incomes. As homes have become a financial asset for the rich, house prices are not constrained by income - they are driven by the amount of capital (money) flowing into housing.
That's how home prices in Toronto can hit 10X the median income when households can only get a mortgage that is 4.5X their income
John, you’re a gangster and I thoroughly enjoy listening to your show. Urmi is amazing also
Thank you!
Great work, John! Really helpful topic to explore here in Canada's biggest cities.
Thank you!
Well deserved John. An impressive accomplishment. 👏 I have always enjoyed playing Devil's advocate. Amen 🙏
Thank you!!
I don’t think it’s devils advocate, he’s been quite clear about what he thinks and this is based on his doctoral work- he’s clearly trying to make a point.
Congratulations John! After 40yrs of financializing housing it will be interesting to see how we can return to affordable home ownership while keeping the monetary music going. Especially here in Canada where the housing industry plays a huge roll in our economic prosperity. The political struggle between the "boomer" and the "zoomer" is just getting started. Thanks for the channel, the discussions are always insightful and well done.
Thank you for your kind words and feedback, I appreciate it
Take a breath Prof. He’s a mature student and chose not to go to yet another convocation. It doesn’t diminish his accomplishment nor his enthusiasm. Your students, presumably much younger, will go to their convocation and are hopefully mature enough to not be influenced by the preferences of any TH-camr.
congrats John!
Thanks!!
Congradulations. I wish there are some chart to look at and understand this. It is too technical.
Thanks, I might write a post for our blog summarizing it with some charts
Low rise is supply-limited by Greenbelt. The relationship to rents of low rise is limited as there is also the potential to sell the land for conversion to higher density. There is also potential to sell to a large potential of land rich (previous SFH) homeowners or their immediate relatives. This would lead to a faster appreciation while the Greenbelt and mass immigration are priced into the market. This would cause the house price to income multiple to expand to factor this in until it reaches a point where you get a large number of people leaving to other regions in Canada and US/International. This would be the equilibrium. Wages, of course, do not rise meaningfully for most people except maybe at the very bottom.
One of my favourite episodes from the show!!! It's hard for John to hide his feelings towards the neo-liberal views on housing 😅😂😅
Thank you and yes, very hard to hide my feelings about that :)
Congratulations John. Sorry, Dr. John? That is a great achievement.
Thank you
I know a builder in Ontario close to a big city chargin 550k to build a single family detached home 1700sf, they don’t do any social media ad (small builder) but publish on MLS and I think it’s not a unique situation. There is some stills affordable pockets in Ontario.
John what do you think about the following: The only solution to housing problems is if the government gets involved. If they say to immigrants, you need to live in low province population for the first 5 years in order to get Canadians citizenship, many will stay in these low population provinces after 5 years. Older people will retire and move out of big cities and supply of low rise housing will increase. Another way the government can involved is they sell land directly to Canadians because the government owns 90% of land in Canada. There are many people who work remotely and can buy piece of land 3 hours away from major cities and build home on it.
The issue isn't so much where people decide to live, it's that our current population growth rate of 1.3M people per year is not sustainable
@5:10 The research project
Here is an idea…. Anyone who lives in a condo, pays half maintenance fees while those that do not actually live in the same condo pay double. Incentive to live in condos .
Developers are holding onto condo units that buyers couldn't afford, hoping and waiting for them to sell at peak bubble prices.
I do agree that getting rid of rent control and letting the market sort itself out would ultimately let us build our way out of this crisis.
However
The process would be ugly for our low income population during a process that would involve a period of multiple years of rapidly increasing homelessness.
Eventually once these newly built units sit empty for a period of time (since your potential renters are living in tents) rents will correct themselves to the incomes of the targeted group of renters.
IMO this process is political suicide for whoever is in office, and housing eventually corrects anyway.
How about before trying that - rent control doesn't fundamentally cost taxpayers anything - get rid of the demand side stimulus that is currently costing taxpayers 30B annually at the federal level, cut CMHC insurance to some sensible level (100k max sounds good) and offer zero additional subsidized loans etc. to anyone. See how that goes and then consider adjusting things which are already for free. In BC the 'fiscally conservative' con gov has offered up to 36k rebate annually (max 3.5B expense) to pay peoples mortgages. Like, wtf? Why are Canadians always talking about stupid shit that doesn't matter when the gov is wasting such an enormous amount of money propping up re eternally..
@@user-le2hu1ct4t
They will prop it up as long as they can.
Once it falls it will mark the beginning of Canada's second depression.
They don't want that to happen until they escape with their pension and a vice president's job at Loblaws.
Carney's at work lol but we still need to get some money laundering groups in ! TD's fine in the US means we're still the money laundering cap. of N .Amer. lol !!
Where is your pumper friend?
Why did the government of Canada ban all foreign buyers from the real estate market ? Isn't it pire xenophobia based on a myth that they were taking all the properties when we all know it's not true. And should the rest of the world reciprocate and ban all the Canadians? Since the housing situation is pretty much the same in all big cities of the world where it's expensive to live . Was blaming foreign buyers the solution or pure politics to gain some votes ? We all know the real speculators are Canadians, not foreigners.
Shame on u for not getting excited about ur accomplishments.
I'm a university professor and I encourage my students to appreciate what they've accomplished. It's a stepping stone of what ur made of. For u to just brush this off doesn't say much about who u r
What will my students say when they hear u say something about this. I praise my students. U just down played it. So again shame on u.
Thank you for the lecture, professor, but I must say it’s a bit unfortunate that you cannot appreciate that different people get different things out of this journey and celebrate and enjoy it in different ways.
Much like Cavafy’s Ithaca, all of the treasures for me were found along the journey, not at the destination. They have already been treasured and celebrated every step of the way. For me, the destination did not have a celebratory mood, it was actually a tad melancholy because this wonderful journey had come to an end.
Does this mean I didn’t treasure it or celebrate it? Of course not, I just celebrated it every step of the way rather than once at the very end - the way most people do.
It is a shame, professor, that you do not have the intellectual curiosity to understand that different people will experience and celebrate their educational journey in a way that is unique to their own lives, intellectual pursuits and lived experiences. Instead, you think everyone should experience it and celebrate it in the way that you think is best.
From your comment, I can only conclude that you are not a professor of philosophy because any person who has thought deeply about the human condition would never make the types of assumptions you make about people you know nothing about.
I've completed three degrees and haven't once attended graduation.
In large part that's because I did not find the education I received to be meaningful but rather was something more akin to a series of hoops I had to jump through to get where I wanted to be in life.
Out of politeness, I wouldn't ordinarily denigrate the work professors do or the pride they take in their work, but if you're going to try to shame someone for not attending their graduation ceremony then you should really come to grips with the fact that people are increasingly of the view that schools offer little of value and are just credentialing institutions that exist for their own benefit.
@@john_pasalis Wonderfully said John, I agree. Its the journey.
"ur Accomplishments"? U sure don't sound like a prof with all the text speak.
@@john_pasalis I have never seen a professor write u for you.