Thank you John for keeping the way of Canadian life alive. The standards you keep stays with the generation that know and will keep. Whether it’s here in Canada or somewhere else.
Yeah, odd he doesn’t mention that he not only didn’t call out the bubble at its peak, but he mocked those of us who did as bears and doomers. We have the tapes John, you can’t hide from it!
Taxes are not slowing down the sales, but eliminating those taxes can help bring down the cost and price, which could lead to more sales and more supply.
@Hachikii Not in today's market. One builder may try it, but the competition and unsold units will force them to pass the benefit to the puhasers ( if any)
Thanks for sharing your insights! Bitcoin recently hit new highs, currently around $87,000, signaling strong upward momentum that could mean exciting opportunities for investors. This growth phase shows Bitcoin’s resilience and potential for further gains. Growing a portfolio from 3.2 BTC to 26.4 BTC amid these market dynamics is impressive. At the forefront of this evolution is Seren Wintersun, whose expertise in crypto and traditional trading has proven invaluable for navigating today’s market.
In a field as rapidly evolving as cryptocurrency, staying updated is crucial. Seren’s continual research and adaptation to the latest market changes have been instrumental in helping me make informed decisions.
The same high-yield potential exists in both bullish and bearish situations; what matters is how information and technique are used. Not neglecting professional advice.
One of the issues that isn't being talked about enough is that the decrease in city of Toronto revenue from development charges is not temporary. It is off the books funding or municipality operating expenses with loans. First to the the builders from banks, and then when the project completes the speculator gets a mortgage. Municipalities shouldn't even be allowed to charge development fees. Because it's just a cash cow to pump up revenues when real estate prices are rising. Where are the credit rating agencies? Completely silent since the pandemic. Their purpose is to put borrowers in check to slow down excessive borrowing. Federal, provincial, and municipal deficits are a major contributor to inflation. I watch alot of news. Why are credit rating agencies completely silent when every level of govt is running wild deficits?
Thank you for your honest and thoughtful analysis that takes into account the generational consequences of pundits cheerleading policies that result in a housing bubble! Prices shouldn’t accelerate beyond people’s ability to pay. Wages haven’t kept up. Therefore average people struggle to enter the market, or end up house-poor. That is terrible for people’s quality of life. No wonder people are annoyed with the cost of housing. Thanks for explaining how we got here.
Who would argue that investor-owners are the ONLY reason? I know John doesn't. But what's key and troubling is how investors are completely omitted from mention in so many quarters. Warren Buffet, hardly an anti-capitalist, warned about the moral hazard of ultra-low interest rates. Interestingly, the investment-housing nexus has induced a problem of a pattern that used to be confined to road-plannning: induced demand. Like automobile ownership, the investment-housing markets mean that no matter how much capacity you build, traffic will always be blocked, housing will stand empty.
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I love the points and they all make sense. Only thing I'm wondering is, what's the solution to fix the current housing issue? We can't go back and change bad policies, so what can we do?
John, taxes/development charges have exploded all over the GTA. Cities in particular have become fat and lazy using this source to meet their bloated budgets. Other taxes have heaped on the expense. Municipal delays, Nimbyism and environmental over reach piled on more expense. Then.... no trades... Plenty of computer programmers imported into Canada but no one who can swing a hammer...?
I really appreciate your excellent analysis. I am really worried about the next generation. I won't vote for governments that put investors (money) ahead of families. The Canadian birthrate is down to 1.23. A lot of ii has to do with not being able to get affordable housing.
I guess no one played SimTower from the 90s. At first its easy money building condos, then they all sell at the same time and you are broke. Happens every time.
Interesting comments on the right way to build rental housing. What about the right way to have fair land prices in the country with the most land per capita in the world?
You make excellent points that look at the real world, not wishful policy by academics. In Canada, we pay far too much attention to policy makers and academics rather than entrepreneurs and business people. Almost all the talking heads on shows about social issues aired on TVO and CBC are the former. It's as if publicly funded news outlets feel they have to justify the tax dollars spent on them by consulting exactly their own type of people - publicly funded "experts." This is wrong-minded and not the case in the US and other, more entrepreneurial nations. Knowledgeable business people should be consulted far more than they are to voice potential solutions to . I hope this starts to change.
Only problem for investors is CRA has changed the rules for investment properties used as airBNB or short term rentals. The owners are NO longer allowed to deduct expenses from the airBNb menaning that all the rental income will be taxed without the benefit of deductions. These greedy MF investors are all screwed now royallly. Hence, this explains why so many investors have listed their condo for sale now. This is not an act of charity but the fact is they can no longer make money by turning their empty downtown condominiums into a short term rental. The playing hotel game is NOW over!!!! 🤔🤔🤔🤔
At the end he sure mentions investors alot, as in not to blame.. What hes referring to is regular folks who are not rich investors, who are also victims to the system that WAS CREATED ON PURPOSE AND NOT BY ACCIDENT. The investors he is referring to are also victims. Because they are regular people duped into the get rich quick scheme, and ALOT are currnetly losing their deposit and getting sued by buiders. The investors are definitely not to blame. If i have to pretend our federal MPs are oblivious, havent studied economics, and not 100% selfish animals... I would say its mostly osfis fault. Fixed payment variable rate mortgages should not be allowed. Cmhc mortgage insurance should not be allowed, because it guarantees moral hazard with bank/mortgage lenders, and banks adjusting mortgage terms for house poor borrowers should not be allowed. The system is designed to get them in as much debt as possible, with no risk of losses due to cmhc insurance, and then trap in them in their homes, house poor forever. Its the same thing as how a car salesman is allowed to trick a 25 year old kid into buying a $60,000 truck instead of a $30,000 one. Its only another $300 per month. Youll get laid more. Girls will like you, your friends will respect you. Should be the death penalty imho. If yall want me to explain how our society is geared to put anyone in debt that you can. Do reach out. But every one operates within the given system and is not inherently evil. Just get that mf to sign the dotted line if their credit rating checks out. I recommend studying psychology so you can manipulate the youth more. Who cares if the kid doesnt understand how long a 96 month payment is. Commision and money is god
Check condo prices in more developed countries. If people can't afford condos, how they can affor1.5-2.0M houses. Stop blaming investors and solve housing supply shortage.
Condos are just a failed idea. How long has the idea been around? How long does a building lifecycle last? Not hard to see. It's a hot potato. Sometimes theres a building fault. Thats just a plain rotten potato. Allowing people to decide if they're going to pay now or pay later. Its not hard to see which way human nature swings. And discipline is a lost art.
Assuming you are referring to condo apartments in hi-rise buildings I agree. Condos should be cheaper per square foot than ground based housing but they sell at a premium. Condo owners have no sense of the cost to replace window walls 500 feet in the air or to redo failed plumbing in a 60 story tower. Etc etc. Condo fees should be much higher and condo prices should be much lower. But builders get to bs buyers with “$0.45 a foot” fees since they have no responsibility 3 years down the road when the reality sets in and fees start to spike.
Wow 😲 investors are evil now. Tell banks, they are giving mortgage left and right to the investors. Obviously, people trying to plan for their retirement and the financial planer also telling them to have your egs in different nest.
The first thing a builder will think about when they get tax break, is how to pass that tax to the buyer and not hiring his cousin and pay them 100K consultation salary. That is why the government should pass the tax break if any to the consumer directly.
We need farmland for food security, not to mention the green belt ensures our urban centres don’t flood (see Mississauga). Less sprawl, mixed density and more green space is what helps ensure sustainability
@DavidM-es9qq Greenbelt ensures land is expensive and is used wisely. Dog-crate 50 story condos for all, even in Mississauga. We don't have Tokyo level transit, so all transportation is by car and Uber for the spouse as there is only one parking spot. People move even further out, drive from Shelbourne to Georgetown, then GO bus and then GO train to union. Multi-million dollar wealth for everyone that owns a detached house, which is now supply limited. No kids in dog-crate condos.
This guys take is 100% wrong lol. Everyone loves to cry about the guy that sells the candy bar, or the guy that owns the candy bar....... never about the cost to make you your own candy bar....... if someone could make you a candy bar for cheaper than the current price, you wouldn't care about the guy that spent top dollar for a candy bar. Cost of construction (and all the new taxes) are the actual problem. Investors have no say on the cost to make new stuff, always hilarious when people try and place blame there.... this is where this guy goes way off the rails. There is no difference in cost of getting a builder to build a fourplex and PBRing all 4, or the builder building that 4 plex and selling each unit separately to separate investors and then those investors renting out the 4 units... the cost to build both of those scenarios is the same. Investors didn't increase the cost of anything, the builders (and the cost of inputs like lumber/labour) did. This guy also wants you to buy resale that is off of Tarion warranty...... a car that is 5 years old is priced far lower than a new car because it is off warranty and you don't know how well that car was treated by the original owner. If you want to go cheap, go buy a 1990 toyota (or a house/condo built in the 70s which is low in price but has more square footage). When you buy resale that is in that 2-5 year range, you are paying top dollar for something just off of warranty. Rest assured if you have 800k and you have the choice between something with a warranty (presale brand new), or something just off warranty (2-5 year old resale), people will pick the brand new item every time and thus far more demand if the pricepoint is anywhere similar... so there is always a price difference between new and used. New stuff also always rents for more than older stuff.
New builds these days, all segments, have shockingly low quality and high deficiencies. It isn't really a choice between new and old, more on a case-by-case basis. Not just due to inflationary pressures. You can get a great building from even the 70s and an abysmal build from 2018, or, shudder, 2024; and obviously vice versa. People seem to know nothing about building which has greatly incentivized a race to the bottom regarding quality. In Canada the best option is to rent only or buy an older house with real inspection - if you have a family etc.
Thank you John for keeping the way of Canadian life alive. The standards you keep stays with the generation that know and will keep. Whether it’s here in Canada or somewhere else.
John - you should try watch one of your videos from 2020 😅
Yeah, odd he doesn’t mention that he not only didn’t call out the bubble at its peak, but he mocked those of us who did as bears and doomers. We have the tapes John, you can’t hide from it!
Taxes are not slowing down the sales, but eliminating those taxes can help bring down the cost and price, which could lead to more sales and more supply.
Not really, the builders and sellers will adjust the prices to reap the gain from the tax reduction. So it's a greed issue.
@Hachikii Not in today's market. One builder may try it, but the competition and unsold units will force them to pass the benefit to the puhasers ( if any)
theres lots of us waiting to buy...we will NOT PAY these ridiculous prices
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SHE IS ON TELE GRAM.
@Serenwintersun
In a field as rapidly evolving as cryptocurrency, staying updated is crucial. Seren’s continual research and adaptation to the latest market changes have been instrumental in helping me make informed decisions.
Nice, I was just hoding before I found Wintersun. In my opinion she is the very best out there.
The same high-yield potential exists in both bullish and bearish situations; what matters is how information and technique are used. Not neglecting professional advice.
One of the issues that isn't being talked about enough is that the decrease in city of Toronto revenue from development charges is not temporary.
It is off the books funding or municipality operating expenses with loans. First to the the builders from banks, and then when the project completes the speculator gets a mortgage.
Municipalities shouldn't even be allowed to charge development fees. Because it's just a cash cow to pump up revenues when real estate prices are rising.
Where are the credit rating agencies? Completely silent since the pandemic. Their purpose is to put borrowers in check to slow down excessive borrowing. Federal, provincial, and municipal deficits are a major contributor to inflation.
I watch alot of news. Why are credit rating agencies completely silent when every level of govt is running wild deficits?
Thank you for your honest and thoughtful analysis that takes into account the generational consequences of pundits cheerleading policies that result in a housing bubble! Prices shouldn’t accelerate beyond people’s ability to pay. Wages haven’t kept up. Therefore average people struggle to enter the market, or end up house-poor. That is terrible for people’s quality of life.
No wonder people are annoyed with the cost of housing. Thanks for explaining how we got here.
Great analysis on the challenges in the current market!
If the rate go down to 2%., everyone is buying
Who would argue that investor-owners are the ONLY reason? I know John doesn't. But what's key and troubling is how investors are completely omitted from mention in so many quarters. Warren Buffet, hardly an anti-capitalist, warned about the moral hazard of ultra-low interest rates.
Interestingly, the investment-housing nexus has induced a problem of a pattern that used to be confined to road-plannning: induced demand. Like automobile ownership, the investment-housing markets mean that no matter how much capacity you build, traffic will always be blocked, housing will stand empty.
You're doing a fantastic job! I have a quick question: My OKX wallet holds some USDT, and I have the seed phrase. (alarm fetch churn bridge exercise tape speak race clerk couch crater letter). How should I go about transferring them to Binance?
One house gets sold, and it's a boom in sales, and prices will go up. Better buy now.!!! -Realtor ..
I love the points and they all make sense. Only thing I'm wondering is, what's the solution to fix the current housing issue? We can't go back and change bad policies, so what can we do?
John, taxes/development charges have exploded all over the GTA. Cities in particular have become fat and lazy using this source to meet their bloated budgets. Other taxes have heaped on the expense. Municipal delays, Nimbyism and environmental over reach piled on more expense. Then.... no trades... Plenty of computer programmers imported into Canada but no one who can swing a hammer...?
I really appreciate your excellent analysis. I am really worried about the next generation. I won't vote for governments that put investors (money) ahead of families. The Canadian birthrate is down to 1.23. A lot of ii has to do with not being able to get affordable housing.
I guess no one played SimTower from the 90s. At first its easy money building condos, then they all sell at the same time and you are broke. Happens every time.
😂 never saw that game back then... i had seen sim city, sim life, flight sim, tycoon, etc but not about tower constructions
Interesting comments on the right way to build rental housing.
What about the right way to have fair land prices in the country with the most land per capita in the world?
Is it good to buy or sell now ?
It's a good time for both. The market is neither crazy up nor collapsing. But, a better decision is to assess your needs.
No one is flipping the Pre Sale. That's why it's not selling.
You make excellent points that look at the real world, not wishful policy by academics. In Canada, we pay far too much attention to policy makers and academics rather than entrepreneurs and business people.
Almost all the talking heads on shows about social issues aired on TVO and CBC are the former. It's as if publicly funded news outlets feel they have to justify the tax dollars spent on them by consulting exactly their own type of people - publicly funded "experts." This is wrong-minded and not the case in the US and other, more entrepreneurial nations.
Knowledgeable business people should be consulted far more than they are to voice potential solutions to . I hope this starts to change.
And no attention at all, in fact, they completely ignore the existence of regular every day workers, and people who want to start and keep a family...
Only problem for investors is CRA has changed the rules for investment properties used as airBNB or short term rentals. The owners are NO longer allowed to deduct expenses from the airBNb menaning that all the rental income will be taxed without the benefit of deductions. These greedy MF investors are all screwed now royallly. Hence, this explains why so many investors have listed their condo for sale now. This is not an act of charity but the fact is they can no longer make money by turning their empty downtown condominiums into a short term rental. The playing hotel game is NOW over!!!!
🤔🤔🤔🤔
At the end he sure mentions investors alot, as in not to blame..
What hes referring to is regular folks who are not rich investors, who are also victims to the system that WAS CREATED ON PURPOSE AND NOT BY ACCIDENT.
The investors he is referring to are also victims. Because they are regular people duped into the get rich quick scheme, and ALOT are currnetly losing their deposit and getting sued by buiders.
The investors are definitely not to blame.
If i have to pretend our federal MPs are oblivious, havent studied economics, and not 100% selfish animals... I would say its mostly osfis fault. Fixed payment variable rate mortgages should not be allowed. Cmhc mortgage insurance should not be allowed, because it guarantees moral hazard with bank/mortgage lenders, and banks adjusting mortgage terms for house poor borrowers should not be allowed.
The system is designed to get them in as much debt as possible, with no risk of losses due to cmhc insurance, and then trap in them in their homes, house poor forever.
Its the same thing as how a car salesman is allowed to trick a 25 year old kid into buying a $60,000 truck instead of a $30,000 one. Its only another $300 per month. Youll get laid more. Girls will like you, your friends will respect you. Should be the death penalty imho.
If yall want me to explain how our society is geared to put anyone in debt that you can. Do reach out.
But every one operates within the given system and is not inherently evil.
Just get that mf to sign the dotted line if their credit rating checks out. I recommend studying psychology so you can manipulate the youth more. Who cares if the kid doesnt understand how long a 96 month payment is. Commision and money is god
Bottomline is the government going to bail out the banks in this condo debacle?
why does it sound like broken record , repeating the same thing over last 2 years
Check condo prices in more developed countries. If people can't afford condos, how they can affor1.5-2.0M houses. Stop blaming investors and solve housing supply shortage.
Condos are just a failed idea. How long has the idea been around? How long does a building lifecycle last? Not hard to see. It's a hot potato. Sometimes theres a building fault. Thats just a plain rotten potato. Allowing people to decide if they're going to pay now or pay later. Its not hard to see which way human nature swings. And discipline is a lost art.
Assuming you are referring to condo apartments in hi-rise buildings I agree. Condos should be cheaper per square foot than ground based housing but they sell at a premium. Condo owners have no sense of the cost to replace window walls 500 feet in the air or to redo failed plumbing in a 60 story tower. Etc etc. Condo fees should be much higher and condo prices should be much lower. But builders get to bs buyers with “$0.45 a foot” fees since they have no responsibility 3 years down the road when the reality sets in and fees start to spike.
This. I'd love to hear this discussion.
Wow 😲 investors are evil now. Tell banks, they are giving mortgage left and right to the investors. Obviously, people trying to plan for their retirement and the financial planer also telling them to have your egs in different nest.
The first thing a builder will think about when they get tax break, is how to pass that tax to the buyer and not hiring his cousin and pay them 100K consultation salary. That is why the government should pass the tax break if any to the consumer directly.
What are you talking about? A builder wants to sell a house. Pricing is a factor to motivate buyers.
You have to get land prices down. Open up the Greenbelt. Go back to what we had at the end of the Harris/Eves government.
We need farmland for food security, not to mention the green belt ensures our urban centres don’t flood (see Mississauga). Less sprawl, mixed density and more green space is what helps ensure sustainability
@DavidM-es9qq Greenbelt ensures land is expensive and is used wisely. Dog-crate 50 story condos for all, even in Mississauga. We don't have Tokyo level transit, so all transportation is by car and Uber for the spouse as there is only one parking spot. People move even further out, drive from Shelbourne to Georgetown, then GO bus and then GO train to union. Multi-million dollar wealth for everyone that owns a detached house, which is now supply limited. No kids in dog-crate condos.
@@DavidM-es9qqdo you understand how much land we have? The greenbelt was all about votes.
@@DF-hu1jx Greenbelt made some real estate developer families that sit on land for decades, very wealthy.
This guys take is 100% wrong lol.
Everyone loves to cry about the guy that sells the candy bar, or the guy that owns the candy bar....... never about the cost to make you your own candy bar....... if someone could make you a candy bar for cheaper than the current price, you wouldn't care about the guy that spent top dollar for a candy bar.
Cost of construction (and all the new taxes) are the actual problem. Investors have no say on the cost to make new stuff, always hilarious when people try and place blame there.... this is where this guy goes way off the rails. There is no difference in cost of getting a builder to build a fourplex and PBRing all 4, or the builder building that 4 plex and selling each unit separately to separate investors and then those investors renting out the 4 units... the cost to build both of those scenarios is the same. Investors didn't increase the cost of anything, the builders (and the cost of inputs like lumber/labour) did.
This guy also wants you to buy resale that is off of Tarion warranty...... a car that is 5 years old is priced far lower than a new car because it is off warranty and you don't know how well that car was treated by the original owner. If you want to go cheap, go buy a 1990 toyota (or a house/condo built in the 70s which is low in price but has more square footage). When you buy resale that is in that 2-5 year range, you are paying top dollar for something just off of warranty.
Rest assured if you have 800k and you have the choice between something with a warranty (presale brand new), or something just off warranty (2-5 year old resale), people will pick the brand new item every time and thus far more demand if the pricepoint is anywhere similar... so there is always a price difference between new and used. New stuff also always rents for more than older stuff.
New builds these days, all segments, have shockingly low quality and high deficiencies. It isn't really a choice between new and old, more on a case-by-case basis. Not just due to inflationary pressures. You can get a great building from even the 70s and an abysmal build from 2018, or, shudder, 2024; and obviously vice versa. People seem to know nothing about building which has greatly incentivized a race to the bottom regarding quality. In Canada the best option is to rent only or buy an older house with real inspection - if you have a family etc.
This guy does not know what he is talking about. Do calculation, not ideology.
Go ahead and do the calculation which demonstrates he is wrong.
Hey let me know what your real estate education YT channel is….😂