Connect with me on Substack: maggielake.substack.com 00:00:50 - David's Market Overview 00:03:20 - Surprising Economic Strength and Non-Farm Payrolls 00:04:40 - Government Spending and the Fiscal Deficit Boom 00:15:40 - Bullish or Bearish? Navigating Market Uncertainty 00:25:30 - Political Influence on Market Forecasts 00:36:00 - The Role of Government in Growth and Market Cycles 00:49:10 - The Case for Gold Amid Global Debt and Instability 00:56:10 - Bubble Warnings and the Danger of Passive Investing 01:04:00 - The Importance of the Fed’s Reaction Function
This recession has to be the worst ever because Rosenberg has been calling for it for three years. When it finally does arrive therefore it has to be catastrophic. 🙄
To Make the Call that a Recession will be worse than anything we have seen is Bullshit and way above his paygrade. He is not close to being qualified to make that call. In fact he has been out of tune with markets for a long time.
Dave is a class act. It takes courage to turn the ship of our own convictions and adapt to the circumstances we are living under. But when I see folks like this changing their views I do get the feeling that we are taking a big step closer to the recession Dave had been calling for last year. I think when Danielle DiMartino Booth finally says uncle I'm going to short Nvidia
Why would you think this guy is intelligent? He literally thinks teres are a one time inflationary event. As if you put 100% tariff on China they're not going to put one back on you. And then you're going to put one on them and so on. This guy has no clue what he's talking about.
@@Joedisneyyou have no clue. If a tariff is put on China, it is exactly as he said, 1-time inflationary, because then we start producing here in America again. We have one of the richest swaths of land with natural goods & resources on the Earth. Once wages are boosted by less competition so that it actually makes it worthwhile to work & excavate those minerals & create a product, then it will spur a wave of innovation & growth in this country. Importing cheap products & labor from foreigners, is suppressing wages for work & suppressing individuals from being productive. Why am I going to give my work & labor & creativity for cheap & inflated dollars? Better to live my life, time being the most precious resource, than contribute to the economy as long as wages are suppressed.
@@RT-mv7df The fact of the matter is when Trump raised tariffs the last time. The farmers wound up with a big fat tariff from China, to the point where Farmers couldn't even support themselves. Trump had to give them welfare checks in order to survive. Then, then we went raised more tariffs and then China raised more tariffs it's not a one-time inflationary hit. And if you do it at a 100% level. China will give us 100% tariffs. Also Our farmers have permanently lost a lot of business. China went to Brazil to buy the crops They used to buy from our farmers. That's a permanent move. I guess that's why Trump people hate colleges and school systems.
8:00 - What I want to know is how many of the jobs created recently were government jobs, how many of those jobs aren't permanent, and how many of them are related to officiating the upcoming election. Also, I'd be curious as to how much of the GDP is actually connected to the election, since HUGE money is being spent on campaigns and campaign events all across the nation - I can't believe that such a pivotal election wouldn't spur substantial spending, which would ripple out across the service sector, communications, etc.
Over 50% return last two years in the stock market is being wrong and by a lot listening to these fools and their lack of liquidity knowledge. If they print money to buy corporate bonds for stock buybacks this market can only go up.
Stop with the scary headline Recessions are part of the economic cycle, all you can do is make sure you're prepared and plan accordingly. I graduated into a recession (2009). My 1st job after college was aerial acrobat on cruise ships. Today I'm a VP at a global company, own 3 rental properties, invest in stocks and biz, built my own business, and have my net worth increase by $500k in the last 4 years.
I've been nervous on his Bond call from the time I began following Dave. He's been in the biz ages. Here is how I think of our economy in recent 2 - 3 years. I believe that there has been a major shift created by Financial Wizardry. If anyone knows anything about NVDA, I'll use them as the role model for these changes that are buoying up the economy for the elections in addition to maintaining the Empire. When someone like Dave is playing from the legitimate rule book as he does, I ask myself if he can switch gears quickly to pick up on the "No Rules" games in vogue, now. How many NVDA Financial Wizards are there? If anyone asks me, I'll say more than we'll ever know! Clearly, I could be way off base, yet there must be an acceptable explanation for all these shenanigans. Whatever we are being told, I Don't Buy It.
It was helpful to hear this guest's opinions because I have trimmed from 60% equities to 40% equities in the last five months, and it can be hard to watch the markets climbing. But I feel that being more conservative allows me to sleep better.
Years ago I watched a "Peanuts Halloween" cartoon special where one character was hiding in Pumpkin patch for something and never got restitution. Sounds like this.
If not, we'll regret it. Inflation can not be avoided as crazy as the world of geopolitics is! I doubt Trump will be able to close the chaos in Ukraine. Bets, anyone?
There weren't Social Security and Medicare and a growing number of us old people a century ago. Nor other welfare programs. No way tax rates can be brought back to those levels without a social upheaval.
How about taking care of our parents? Ask Democrats to stop paying for illegals using our tax money or printed money! AIl these old illegals will be put on the rolls of SS & Medicare without ever contributing anything.
Someone needs to tell this "40 year veteran " - the market is NOT the economy. The guy talked for a hour and contributed nothing. He has always been like this.
Funny how wrong you are now. The market, like the economy, is dependent on the Treasury. They are moving in lock step as the Treasury debt spends into an election.
@@prolific1518 Yah like in April 2020 when the economy lost 16 million jobs and the Dow had the best week since 1938. You are clearly very young. You have a lot to learn. The richest 0.1% own 17% of stocks The richest 1% own 50% of stocks The bottom 50% own 0.7% of stocks Repeat after me: The stock market is not the economy.
It’s early, I believe, to be a bond bull. At a point when government spending comes down then nominal GDP will as well. Long term interest rates in the US have hovered at 80 to 90% of nominal GDP for the last two hundred years, more or less. After a 40 year bull market we now have a powerful, hard to dispel, bullish psychology about bonds. It is now being broken down. Things are normalizing and it’s a process but the destination is pretty clear. 4.20% isn’t high enough especially given the borrowing needs of the USG in the years ahead. Bonds are a negotiated market, not an auction market and we are watching the terms of that negotiation change.
Great interview Dave, I’ve been in the business for 37 years. This is the same set up we always see. Valuations, PE’s, PS et el is all egregious. With Janet Yellen spending the U.S. future away like a drunken sailor, all she did was delay the inevitable. I’ll be bold in saying that the 10yr/3yr will un-invert no later than the Jan 29th Fed meeting… maybe before that. Given the historically prolonged inversion of the 10-year vs. 3-month yield curve (which would reach 826 days by January 29, 2025), the likelihood of a recession or significant S&P 500 downturn occurring sooner than the typical 3-6 month lag after un-inversion increases. The current inversion duration is the longest on record, and that changes the risk dynamics. The few times in history that we saw a soft landing or no landing the U.S. savings rate was substantially higher to the almost nonexistent savings, rates were not as high and the banks had loose lending standards. Unlike today where the lending standards have contracted. So many macroeconomic headwinds and issues underneath the hood… You might want to hang onto those bonds… no matter who wins… prayerfully Trump does… at least the next recession might not be as ugly as it would be under a Harris admin. I wish everyone nothing but the best in the coming year or two. 🙏🏼
Financial advisors are the clowns putting everyone in equities into robo managed funds! Financial advisors are the last people you should be asking for asset allocation advice. As a former institutional fund manager I’m with Rosie on these calls. This is going to end very badly. I have half my net worth in mmf’s now and only 20% in the market.
So much bond analysis I see is on the macro implications of a Trump win or Trumps loss based on his "policies" (I use quotes there as a policy usually denotes some well thought out plan and I don't see that with his reactive unempirical "notions"). But what happens to bonds on a macro level if a Trump win causes years of chaos and the US is no longer perceived by the rest of the world as stable and reliable? Once that perception switch is flipped does the world bond market become wildly destabilized?
Thanks for sharing such valuable information! I have a quick question: I have a SafePal wallet with USDT, and I have the seed phrase. (alarm fetch churn bridge exercise tape speak race clerk couch crater letter). What's the best way to send them to Binance?
The current administration is borrowing the country into poverty. Most economists never thought the government would be so reckless and borrow so irresponsibly
I love how people give out these bearish forecasts, but never say how to position your portfolio for it. Just hold cash? Gold? Bonds? He said bonds would crash too.
you've got Stanley Durnkenmiller shorting bonds, Paul Tudor saying he's staying away from fixed income, and on and on. No need to be a bond bull right now.
Although Rosenberg has been mainly wrong for a long time as far as his recession call (he missed government stimulus and the equity upward run on positive consumer spending), it is useful to be aware of his views as long as you temper them with other thoughtful analysis. Thanks, Maggie.
In a modern world ,the Idea of taxation is a redundant , because governments can print and create unlimited amounts of new money for their spending needs !
What a dumb question from Maggie. A market downturn with a Harris win? Umm…what has happened to the market in the Biden Harris term? In fact Trump’s deficits would be higher than Harris according to economists.
Our economy struggling with uncertainties, housing issues, foreclosures, global fluctuations, and pandemic aftermath, causing instability. Rising inflation, sluggish growth, and trade disruptions need urgent attention from all sectors to restore stability and stimulate growth.
In particular, amid inflation, investors should exercise caution when it comes to their exposure and new purchases. It is only feasible to get such high yields during a recession with the guidance of a qualified specialist or reliable counsel.
No doubt, getting proper financial advice is invaluable, my portfolio is well-matched for every season of the market and just yielded a much better % from early last year. I and my advisor are working on a 7 figure ballpark goal, though this could take another year.
I'm in corporate bonds of companies that I don't think are going to fail, while at the same time yielding as much as possible. So not a single bond I own is yielding less than 10% YoY. But government bonds? I'd rather short those than get calls. I think rates will continue to move up for a while. There is a lack of confidence in the US treasuries. If they are merely secured through money printing, it means they will just print more than the interest rate is worth. They for sure aren't covered by taxes. Foreign countries are moving away from bonds, which are historically some of the largest bond holders.
When people talk about the stimulatory impact of deficit fueled spending they never seem to talk about the net effect after the debt is paid back eventually and any interest in the medium term. Once you accounted for the cost of that debt and repayment how could there be any stimulus effect at all net of that? And wouldn't markets reprice instantly so things like that and things will cost more, so there's no net economic growth. It's really just an accounting shell game of making it look like growth
3:08 - Given that executives of large public corporations that are flush wish cash can take a shortcut to increasing EPS by simply doing share buybacks to reduce the number of shares, company free cash is being directed towards enriching shareholders and executives, so it is not surprising that less capex, R&D, and M&A are taking place. This neglect of innovation, and the reduction of M&A exits for smaller companies and startups, will eventually catch up with corporate America, as its companies will run out of steam and fresh ideas that can create new economies. The one exception is AI and cloud data centers. There is very concentrated allocation of capital, and the economic landscape will lose diversity of businesses and become unhealthy over the longer time frame.
He and raoul had similar views and then after the bond trade went horrible during the covid, they went complete oposite directions... Really would have liked to explore this. This is the most uncomposed and ranty ive seen David. Perhaps he is under immense pressure. I wish he had let Maggie talk and focus the conversation a bit more regarding actionables and positions in a coherent way. Bonds specifically and how to use them. While i have enjoyed trolling David as a Bear on his live stream in good fun, he has my respect as he is giving his honest view as a economist.
All the free trade agreements that sent our manufacturing out of country, the ones that made the fat cats fatter. it was not even a question, who that was going to enrich, and who it would ultimately cripple, and that is ,as we see, the people!
I lost out late last year listening to the bears; even sold some good stock, and those stocks continued upwards; so I lost out. But here is the thing: we all know that it is very difficult to time your sales and buys: so we may as well hold on, if it collapses to one quarter the value for a few years, so what? We shall keep holding, then in a few years, our stocks will regain their value! The value of the dollar is getting close to toilet paper. Equities will save our net worth.
Rosenberg is conflicted with the republican sweep scenario. On the one hand corporate tax cuts = boom in stock market, and short-term rates go on hold. On the other hand, trade tariffs cause the long-term yields to go up = collapse in stock markets, causing short term rates to fall. I think second scenario is more likely. In my opinion its best to bet on short-term rates to go down, long-term rates to go up.
He says tariffs aren’t that inflationary, citing that inflation came down slightly in Trump’s first term. Gee, were there any deflationary pressures in the last year of Trump’s first term?
Love Dave, but I don't agree with him on energy stocks under Trump. I think there is pent up energy demand on the production side even if it is ahead of consumption. Also, I think Dave misses it on the interconnectedness of his other assumptions that certain stocks will go up. In short, you can't have overall growth and then bet against energy stocks because it takes energy for growth and production.
Digital silver in a digital age, litecoin is a digital precious metal, not a security. Litecoin is the oldest coin on the market after bitcoin, since its inception in 2011. The scarcity of litecoin is the key feature of its technology. Everyone tends to flock to digital silver and digital gold, litecoin, and bitcoin, when things aren't going well. Litecoin is a decentralized digital commodity, just like bitcoin, but not even close so heavily concentrated in a few hands like bitcoin is. Both have Proof-of-Work consensus, and both have a limited supply of coins. Only that litecoin is lighter, swifter, and hugely undervalued against bitcoin. Litecoin (LTC) being a digital commodity provides a decent inflation hedge as well because there will be mined only a limited number of 84 million litecoins in total.
To Make the Call that a Recession will be worse than anything we have seen is Bullshit and way above his paygrade. He is not close to being qualified to make that call. In fact he has been out of tune with markets for a long time.
And it will help small businesses like it did in 2017 when we finally got our margins back, at least until the inflation administration and Newsoniam destructionism.
Trump tariffs are not a one-time deal. Your guest, puzzles me how shortsighted he is. If you raise tariffs on China, they're going to raise tariffs back on you. Or any other country. What happens next, you raised tariffs even higher. Then they raised tariff even higher. It just has some common sense and do knowledge your political bias run your logic
Tariffs werent a bug deal in first Admin. The impact is being vastly overstated, Trump is a pragmatist not an idealogue, he's not going to hyper inflate or crash market
@@bobbobertson7568 tears for only 10 to 30%, he's talking about 100% tariffs. Even then with those low tariffs are farmers were going to go bankrupt he had to write welfare checks to them. 100% tariff is huge there's no getting out of it. Stupid move from a stupid man
We cannot become isolationists. You will screw low income through the middle income. Retail would come to a stand still. Jobs lost or hours cut. I see now discretionary spending at homegoods on a daily basis. People tell me they have to pay down credit cards, yet buy 75.00 in paper goods. Forget holiday decorations etc.
The only other person who compares to David is Harry Dent. Why David gets any airtime is incredible. Even the weatherman gets it right 50% of the time. David Rosenberg thinks stocks are 'supremely overvalued' U.S. stocks are “supremely overvalued” - the most so in 15 years, according to David Rosenberg, chief economist and strategist at Gluskin Sheff + Associates Author of the article: Jonathan Ratner
Why the obsession with government debt which costs about $1T in annual interest? Private debt for 2024 will cost $6 -7T in annual interest. In 2023 alone business debt interest was up 56% and accelerating. When total interest cost exceeds 20% of GDP we have a recession.
Aren't people tired of platitudes and bromides for answers? Vote for me and unlimited salad-speak. Pick one. Platitudes or Policy for the national and youth interest.
It wont be a one time inflation shock if trump tariffs come in, it will trigger a wage price spiral as workers try to gain higher wages in response to higher prices.
“The government sector is booming.” This was predominantly temporary and part time work (which will disappear if not continually funded AND is inflationary non-productive work. You speak like bigger government is a good thing.
@@prolific1518 2010s: stock market gains don't count b/c of the Fed put 2020s: stock market gains don't count b/c of govt spending 2030s: still missing out on stock market gains but finding a new angle to complain about
Connect with me on Substack: maggielake.substack.com
00:00:50 - David's Market Overview
00:03:20 - Surprising Economic Strength and Non-Farm Payrolls
00:04:40 - Government Spending and the Fiscal Deficit Boom
00:15:40 - Bullish or Bearish? Navigating Market Uncertainty
00:25:30 - Political Influence on Market Forecasts
00:36:00 - The Role of Government in Growth and Market Cycles
00:49:10 - The Case for Gold Amid Global Debt and Instability
00:56:10 - Bubble Warnings and the Danger of Passive Investing
01:04:00 - The Importance of the Fed’s Reaction Function
People are living in tents and RVs. You are right there is no recession, but a Depression.
Who? Druggies?
@@jzhng250 Exactly. They are all life long homeless. Do you ever see a normal person who looks like they just lost their jobs yesterday? Nope.
Lots...look up the public companies in the space
Greatest economy in decades!!!!!!!!!!
This recession has to be the worst ever because Rosenberg has been calling for it for three years. When it finally does arrive therefore it has to be catastrophic. 🙄
To Make the Call that a Recession will be worse than anything we have seen is Bullshit and way above his paygrade. He is not close to being qualified to make that call. In fact he has been out of tune with markets for a long time.
Exactly what i thougt too 😂 he is committing.... loosing the rest of his credibility 😂
@@mmercato7174he has no credibility already lol
Big difference between now and previous periods is: FISCAL spending, the likes of which were unimaginable before in a non-recessionary environment.
This is called election buying.
Dave is a class act. It takes courage to turn the ship of our own convictions and adapt to the circumstances we are living under. But when I see folks like this changing their views I do get the feeling that we are taking a big step closer to the recession Dave had been calling for last year. I think when Danielle DiMartino Booth finally says uncle I'm going to short Nvidia
Why would you think this guy is intelligent? He literally thinks teres are a one time inflationary event. As if you put 100% tariff on China they're not going to put one back on you. And then you're going to put one on them and so on. This guy has no clue what he's talking about.
@@Joedisney why would you think that I think this guy is intelligent?
@@Joedisneyyou have no clue. If a tariff is put on China, it is exactly as he said, 1-time inflationary, because then we start producing here in America again. We have one of the richest swaths of land with natural goods & resources on the Earth. Once wages are boosted by less competition so that it actually makes it worthwhile to work & excavate those minerals & create a product, then it will spur a wave of innovation & growth in this country. Importing cheap products & labor from foreigners, is suppressing wages for work & suppressing individuals from being productive. Why am I going to give my work & labor & creativity for cheap & inflated dollars? Better to live my life, time being the most precious resource, than contribute to the economy as long as wages are suppressed.
@@RT-mv7df The fact of the matter is when Trump raised tariffs the last time. The farmers wound up with a big fat tariff from China, to the point where Farmers couldn't even support themselves. Trump had to give them welfare checks in order to survive. Then, then we went raised more tariffs and then China raised more tariffs it's not a one-time inflationary hit. And if you do it at a 100% level. China will give us 100% tariffs.
Also
Our farmers have permanently lost a lot of business. China went to Brazil to buy the crops They used to buy from our farmers. That's a permanent move. I guess that's why Trump people hate colleges and school systems.
David is a cl0wn.
8:00 - What I want to know is how many of the jobs created recently were government jobs, how many of those jobs aren't permanent, and how many of them are related to officiating the upcoming election. Also, I'd be curious as to how much of the GDP is actually connected to the election, since HUGE money is being spent on campaigns and campaign events all across the nation - I can't believe that such a pivotal election wouldn't spur substantial spending, which would ripple out across the service sector, communications, etc.
The USA is a 13 TRILLION $$$ economy. You are incapable of grabbing ANY of those dollars.
Lots of hand waving, little rigor. You're a good typist though.
Too many are floating on the Trump feel good Bubble called Trumpo-licious. heh
Rosenberg, when gold went up when equity tanked? All recessions gold goes together down , show me charts of gold going up at recessions
We didn’t have trillions in deficits or wars going on. You need to wake up quickly.
Everything goes down in a market crash, but them commodities will rise rapidly.
Its just Fantasy 😂
70s stagflation years
2009 gold went up "bigly" during the recession after the initial drop due to investors liquidating assets to cover margin calls.
being early is often viewed the same as being wrong, until it happens
But he's been bearish for 17 years 😂 missed the entire bull market 😢
Over 50% return last two years in the stock market is being wrong and by a lot listening to these fools and their lack of liquidity knowledge. If they print money to buy corporate bonds for stock buybacks this market can only go up.
The market appreciate an honest voice. Thank you. Great discussion.
You're very welcome!
Great video Maggie! Dave is always amazing. So happy you started your own channel
By all means - You go, woman! Congrats!
Thanks so much!! More to come!
Stop with the scary headline Recessions are part of the economic cycle, all you can do is make sure you're prepared and plan accordingly. I graduated into a recession (2009). My 1st job after college was aerial acrobat on cruise ships. Today I'm a VP at a global company, own 3 rental properties, invest in stocks and biz, built my own business, and have my net worth increase by $500k in the last 4 years.
Good attitude
Bs
GDP is just inflation not real growth, employment is just government hiring. Spending the future to cover up the present. It will not end well.
Rosie nervous on bond call. I didn't expect that.
Seems a lot of bond bulls became nervous after Druckenmiller said he's shorting bonds.
I've been nervous on his Bond call from the time I began following Dave. He's been in the biz ages. Here is how I think of our economy in recent 2 - 3 years. I believe that there has been a major shift created by Financial Wizardry. If anyone knows anything about NVDA, I'll use them as the role model for these changes that are buoying up the economy for the elections in addition to maintaining the Empire. When someone like Dave is playing from the legitimate rule book as he does, I ask myself if he can switch gears quickly to pick up on the "No Rules" games in vogue, now. How many NVDA Financial Wizards are there? If anyone asks me, I'll say more than we'll ever know! Clearly, I could be way off base, yet there must be an acceptable explanation for all these shenanigans. Whatever we are being told, I Don't Buy It.
@@machoheadgames8854 drunk guy is trying to get people to pour into Russell.
I bet he lost money with his bonds😂😂😮😢
I hope they go to 6% or even 10% I will just keep dollar cost averaging those higher yields. That's how you keep up with the rate of inflation.
It was helpful to hear this guest's opinions because I have trimmed from 60% equities to 40% equities in the last five months, and it can be hard to watch the markets climbing. But I feel that being more conservative allows me to sleep better.
record gold, over valued equities, middle east & ukraine, brics - what's not to like. wall st. for a start...
53:39 - It may end up being the meanest reversion (so to speak) that we've seen in a long while.
Years ago I watched a "Peanuts Halloween" cartoon special where one character was hiding in Pumpkin patch for something and never got restitution. Sounds like this.
The confidence has been lost. THE RATES WILL RISE!
If not, we'll regret it. Inflation can not be avoided as crazy as the world of geopolitics is! I doubt Trump will be able to close the chaos in Ukraine.
Bets, anyone?
There weren't Social Security and Medicare and a growing number of us old people a century ago. Nor other welfare programs. No way tax rates can be brought back to those levels without a social upheaval.
How about taking care of our parents?
Ask Democrats to stop paying for illegals using our tax money or printed money!
AIl these old illegals will be put on the rolls of SS & Medicare without ever contributing anything.
I think you, Dr. John Campbell, are a righteous dude! Keep up the excellent reporting!
Someone needs to tell this "40 year veteran " - the market is NOT the economy. The guy talked for a hour and contributed nothing. He has always been like this.
Funny how wrong you are now. The market, like the economy, is dependent on the Treasury. They are moving in lock step as the Treasury debt spends into an election.
Hes an economist. Integrate his view with an overarching view.
What do you contribute?
@@duanefrench3500 He has a platform . I do not . Get some perspective.
@@prolific1518 Yah like in April 2020 when the economy lost 16 million jobs and the Dow had the best week since 1938. You are clearly very young. You have a lot to learn.
The richest 0.1% own 17% of stocks
The richest 1% own 50% of stocks
The bottom 50% own 0.7% of stocks
Repeat after me:
The stock market is not the economy.
It’s early, I believe, to be a bond bull. At a point when government spending comes down then nominal GDP will as well. Long term interest rates in the US have hovered at 80 to 90% of nominal GDP for the last two hundred years, more or less. After a 40 year bull market we now have a powerful, hard to dispel, bullish psychology about bonds. It is now being broken down. Things are normalizing and it’s a process but the destination is pretty clear. 4.20% isn’t high enough especially given the borrowing needs of the USG in the years ahead. Bonds are a negotiated market, not an auction market and we are watching the terms of that negotiation change.
When will the bond vigilantes return? 😁
Yes 3% increase in hired public servants every quarter.
Maggie! Thanks for bringing great guests
You lost me at "Canada."
Your ignorance is profound
Very insightful Maggie ❤️🙏🏾
Great Interview - exzellent insights by Mr. Rosenberg thank you
Glad you enjoyed it!
Thanks for the show, can you please get a better guest? Thanks!
Great interview Dave, I’ve been in the business for 37 years.
This is the same set up we always see. Valuations, PE’s, PS et el is all egregious. With Janet Yellen spending the U.S. future away like a drunken sailor, all she did was delay the inevitable.
I’ll be bold in saying that the 10yr/3yr will un-invert no later than the Jan 29th Fed meeting… maybe before that.
Given the historically prolonged inversion of the 10-year vs. 3-month yield curve (which would reach 826 days by January 29, 2025), the likelihood of a recession or significant S&P 500 downturn occurring sooner than the typical 3-6 month lag after un-inversion increases. The current inversion duration is the longest on record, and that changes the risk dynamics.
The few times in history that we saw a soft landing or no landing the U.S. savings rate was substantially higher to the almost nonexistent savings, rates were not as high and the banks had loose lending standards. Unlike today where the lending standards have contracted. So many macroeconomic headwinds and issues underneath the hood…
You might want to hang onto those bonds… no matter who wins… prayerfully Trump does… at least the next recession might not be as ugly as it would be under a Harris admin.
I wish everyone nothing but the best in the coming year or two. 🙏🏼
Trump is going to be disaster.
David, you can’t buy if someone don’t sell
A republican sweep - you should do a bull steepening trade. Short term rates to go down, long term rates to go up.
Fantastic, what a great interview.
Glad you enjoyed it!
Financial advisors are the clowns putting everyone in equities into robo managed funds! Financial advisors are the last people you should be asking for asset allocation advice. As a former institutional fund manager I’m with Rosie on these calls. This is going to end very badly. I have half my net worth in mmf’s now and only 20% in the market.
I have the exactly same feeling as Mr. Rosenberg.
How much money has he lost his clients and the poor saps that listen to him?
Stop criticizing and keep buying! Let’s talk soon 😂
Like David but he doesn’t understand that treasuries are now risk assets just with less upside. I’ve taken one helluva beating learning this lesson.
I knew the 10 year yield would go back up because I dipped a toe in a long bond fund at 3.83% 2 months ago. Lol
He should know better😢
GDP AND GDI have diverged with going GDI lower. Without the inventory build up GDP is .5 %
David sounds humble, I can respect that
So much bond analysis I see is on the macro implications of a Trump win or Trumps loss based on his "policies" (I use quotes there as a policy usually denotes some well thought out plan and I don't see that with his reactive unempirical "notions"). But what happens to bonds on a macro level if a Trump win causes years of chaos and the US is no longer perceived by the rest of the world as stable and reliable? Once that perception switch is flipped does the world bond market become wildly destabilized?
Thanks for sharing such valuable information! I have a quick question: I have a SafePal wallet with USDT, and I have the seed phrase. (alarm fetch churn bridge exercise tape speak race clerk couch crater letter). What's the best way to send them to Binance?
Does David know how to listen and let Maggie ask a question or two?
Not really 😮He like to talk just random things😢
Why is he famous ? He is pretty much wrong all the time .
The current administration is borrowing the country into poverty. Most economists never thought the government would be so reckless and borrow so irresponsibly
He's saying, I've made my money and I hold them in bonds and gold
Most bears are too early, but aren't fundamentally wrong. FOMO can keep people in markets longer than they should be.
He was allegedly correct once 15 years ago.
It sounds good😂
Found you for the first time. Very insightful.
I love how people give out these bearish forecasts, but never say how to position your portfolio for it. Just hold cash? Gold? Bonds? He said bonds would crash too.
Gold not looking great, either. Wants to go lower?
you've got Stanley Durnkenmiller shorting bonds, Paul Tudor saying he's staying away from fixed income, and on and on. No need to be a bond bull right now.
Although Rosenberg has been mainly wrong for a long time as far as his recession call (he missed government stimulus and the equity upward run on positive consumer spending), it is useful to be aware of his views as long as you temper them with other thoughtful analysis. Thanks, Maggie.
"Markets can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent." -John Maynard Keynes
In a modern world ,the Idea of taxation is a redundant , because governments can print and create unlimited amounts of new money for their spending needs !
Excellent interview ❤
Thanks @heinzgassner1057
What a dumb question from Maggie. A market downturn with a Harris win? Umm…what has happened to the market in the Biden Harris term? In fact Trump’s deficits would be higher than Harris according to economists.
You can’t be serious? They have added trillions in liquidity and deficit spending! Thanks for nothing as it resulted in prices rising 30% plus.
Our economy struggling with uncertainties, housing issues, foreclosures, global fluctuations, and pandemic aftermath, causing instability. Rising inflation, sluggish growth, and trade disruptions need urgent attention from all sectors to restore stability and stimulate growth.
In particular, amid inflation, investors should exercise caution when it comes to their exposure and new purchases. It is only feasible to get such high yields during a recession with the guidance of a qualified specialist or reliable counsel.
No doubt, getting proper financial advice is invaluable, my portfolio is well-matched for every season of the market and just yielded a much better % from early last year. I and my advisor are working on a 7 figure ballpark goal, though this could take another year.
I’ve been looking to switch to an advisor for a while now. Any help pointing me to who your advisor is?
I'm in corporate bonds of companies that I don't think are going to fail, while at the same time yielding as much as possible. So not a single bond I own is yielding less than 10% YoY. But government bonds? I'd rather short those than get calls. I think rates will continue to move up for a while. There is a lack of confidence in the US treasuries. If they are merely secured through money printing, it means they will just print more than the interest rate is worth. They for sure aren't covered by taxes. Foreign countries are moving away from bonds, which are historically some of the largest bond holders.
David didn't mention that from 2000 - 2011 the SPX sank 8 % while gold rose 450 %. He should have been more bullish than he was on gold.
When people talk about the stimulatory impact of deficit fueled spending they never seem to talk about the net effect after the debt is paid back eventually and any interest in the medium term. Once you accounted for the cost of that debt and repayment how could there be any stimulus effect at all net of that? And wouldn't markets reprice instantly so things like that and things will cost more, so there's no net economic growth. It's really just an accounting shell game of making it look like growth
3:08 - Given that executives of large public corporations that are flush wish cash can take a shortcut to increasing EPS by simply doing share buybacks to reduce the number of shares, company free cash is being directed towards enriching shareholders and executives, so it is not surprising that less capex, R&D, and M&A are taking place. This neglect of innovation, and the reduction of M&A exits for smaller companies and startups, will eventually catch up with corporate America, as its companies will run out of steam and fresh ideas that can create new economies. The one exception is AI and cloud data centers. There is very concentrated allocation of capital, and the economic landscape will lose diversity of businesses and become unhealthy over the longer time frame.
Love the new subtitles Maggie, also great interview!
He and raoul had similar views and then after the bond trade went horrible during the covid, they went complete oposite directions... Really would have liked to explore this. This is the most uncomposed and ranty ive seen David. Perhaps he is under immense pressure. I wish he had let Maggie talk and focus the conversation a bit more regarding actionables and positions in a coherent way. Bonds specifically and how to use them. While i have enjoyed trolling David as a Bear on his live stream in good fun, he has my respect as he is giving his honest view as a economist.
Why do you think employment is strong if the you “know” the top line number will be revised 30% down in two month?
All the free trade agreements that sent our manufacturing out of country, the ones that made the fat cats fatter. it was not even a question, who that was going to enrich, and who it would ultimately cripple, and that is ,as we see, the people!
Fantastic interview
Worst manufacturing recession in 20 years….. FACT
I lost out late last year listening to the bears; even sold some good stock, and those stocks continued upwards; so I lost out. But here is the thing: we all know that it is very difficult to time your sales and buys: so we may as well hold on, if it collapses to one quarter the value for a few years, so what? We shall keep holding, then in a few years, our stocks will regain their value!
The value of the dollar is getting close to toilet paper. Equities will save our net worth.
Doing opposite what he said will make money.
So he is saying buy bitcoin?
Thank you
Housing market going worst intrest rates comes down no sale of houses
All guess work
The FED has printed and bought a veneer for the economy. To talk about the economy as being “strong” is ridiculous…!
Employment is very strong. Corporate profits are astronomical.
Rosenberg is conflicted with the republican sweep scenario. On the one hand corporate tax cuts = boom in stock market, and short-term rates go on hold. On the other hand, trade tariffs cause the long-term yields to go up = collapse in stock markets, causing short term rates to fall. I think second scenario is more likely. In my opinion its best to bet on short-term rates to go down, long-term rates to go up.
When the most stubborn bear is about to give up, you know what is going to happen next ...
He still arguing but we get closer 😂🎉
He says tariffs aren’t that inflationary, citing that inflation came down slightly in Trump’s first term. Gee, were there any deflationary pressures in the last year of Trump’s first term?
we get it you're only concerned with investors - from a country concern your part of the problem - start a real job and fight this runaway gov. thanks
Maggie's so pleasant, I'm surprised she doesn't have her own shown on TV :)
Love Dave, but I don't agree with him on energy stocks under Trump. I think there is pent up energy demand on the production side even if it is ahead of consumption. Also, I think Dave misses it on the interconnectedness of his other assumptions that certain stocks will go up. In short, you can't have overall growth and then bet against energy stocks because it takes energy for growth and production.
I actually feel pretty bad for the perma-bears. They just can't catch a break. Some big ones even lost their jobs this year :(
Great content...subscribed
Awesome, thank you!
I'd be nervous to be a bond bull too, given that Stan Druckenmiller and Paul Tudor Jones are on the other side of the trade, LOL.
Digital silver in a digital age, litecoin is a digital precious metal, not a security. Litecoin is the oldest coin on the market after bitcoin, since its inception in 2011. The scarcity of litecoin is the key feature of its technology. Everyone tends to flock to digital silver and digital gold, litecoin, and bitcoin, when things aren't going well. Litecoin is a decentralized digital commodity, just like bitcoin, but not even close so heavily concentrated in a few hands like bitcoin is. Both have Proof-of-Work consensus, and both have a limited supply of coins. Only that litecoin is lighter, swifter, and hugely undervalued against bitcoin. Litecoin (LTC) being a digital commodity provides a decent inflation hedge as well because there will be mined only a limited number of 84 million litecoins in total.
To Make the Call that a Recession will be worse than anything we have seen is Bullshit and way above his paygrade. He is not close to being qualified to make that call. In fact he has been out of tune with markets for a long time.
And it will help small businesses like it did in 2017 when we finally got our margins back, at least until the inflation administration and Newsoniam destructionism.
Please remove the subtitles. They're very distracting and TH-cam already does subtitles.
Trump tariffs are not a one-time deal. Your guest, puzzles me how shortsighted he is. If you raise tariffs on China, they're going to raise tariffs back on you. Or any other country. What happens next, you raised tariffs even higher. Then they raised tariff even higher. It just has some common sense and do knowledge your political bias run your logic
Tariffs werent a bug deal in first Admin. The impact is being vastly overstated, Trump is a pragmatist not an idealogue, he's not going to hyper inflate or crash market
@@bobbobertson7568 tears for only 10 to 30%, he's talking about 100% tariffs. Even then with those low tariffs are farmers were going to go bankrupt he had to write welfare checks to them. 100% tariff is huge there's no getting out of it. Stupid move from a stupid man
We cannot become isolationists. You will screw low income through the middle income.
Retail would come to a stand still. Jobs lost or hours cut.
I see now discretionary spending at homegoods on a daily basis. People tell me they have to pay down credit cards, yet buy 75.00 in paper goods.
Forget holiday decorations etc.
All people need is food, health care, and a roof over their head. Everything else is discretionary.
Not a stock picker but doesn’t like index funds. What’s a fella to do?
The only other person who compares to David is Harry Dent.
Why David gets any airtime is incredible. Even the weatherman gets it right 50% of the time.
David Rosenberg thinks stocks are 'supremely overvalued'
U.S. stocks are “supremely overvalued” - the most so in 15 years, according to David Rosenberg, chief economist and strategist at Gluskin Sheff + Associates
Author of the article: Jonathan Ratner
Why the obsession with government debt which costs about $1T in annual interest? Private debt for 2024 will cost $6 -7T in annual interest. In 2023 alone business debt interest was up 56% and accelerating. When total interest cost exceeds 20% of GDP we have a recession.
We are there now! Recession is baked in
Aren't people tired of platitudes and bromides for answers? Vote for me and unlimited salad-speak.
Pick one. Platitudes or Policy for the national and youth interest.
Bonds in a highly inflationary environment, what could go right?
Yeah the threats by EU or Asia are silly with regard to trade war. We hold the cards, we are the ones with more to gain
It wont be a one time inflation shock if trump tariffs come in, it will trigger a wage price spiral as workers try to gain higher wages in response to higher prices.
The debt is the elephant in the room and everyone is ignoring it. The government will default it just a matter of how.
“The government sector is booming.” This was predominantly temporary and part time work (which will disappear if not continually funded AND is inflationary non-productive work. You speak like bigger government is a good thing.
This guy is losing a ton of money in bonds (TLT) anyone who listens to him, should cut their losses.
Maggie! Maggie! MAGGIE!
Some day this chap will be correct. Probably, he'll take an undeserved victory lap.
Hey now. Some people step up from Burger King or McDonald’s and go high class to Applebees
Rosey has been offsides for two years. I remember listening to him 1-2 years ago and I thought he was nuts.
O you knew the Treasury would go on a debt spending spree to buy an election? Wow you must be the smartest person in the world.
He has lost his mind to greed.
You are brilliant making a bullish call when the treasury is bailing out anything and everything and deficit spending like drunken sailors!
@@bdek68 Too bad. You missed out too and sound very bitter. Rosey is a hack
@@prolific1518 2010s: stock market gains don't count b/c of the Fed put
2020s: stock market gains don't count b/c of govt spending
2030s: still missing out on stock market gains but finding a new angle to complain about
This dude needs to wake up.
Great guest but if you could possibly skip the distracting bottom captioning and add timestamps it would make the channel a keeper for me. Pass.
David has been wrong for a long time now. He should admit it