Q3 2024 Stock Market Guide (Market, Economy, Rates, Valuations)
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- เผยแพร่เมื่อ 2 ส.ค. 2024
- Stock market guide for Q3 2024 - we look at the economics, rates, the FED's balance sheet, stock market valuations and discuss where to invest!
CAPE RATIO VID • The Shiller Cape PE Ra...
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0:00 Guide To Markets
0:29 The Market ATH
3:31 The Economy
7:20 Interest Rates
9:41 Valuations
11:58 Investing
I really appreciate your curating, summarizing and commenting on these reports out of major firms. Thank you
Glad you like them!
Very interesting, thanks Sven. I also downloaded the underlying document for further studying.
Please make similar video again when the next report comes out.
Will do!
difficult years for value investors when so many stocks seem over priced.
Small caps are cheap. Strip out AI and big tech, then it doesn't look pretty
Try your chance out of the USA.
E.g. compare value stocks like Stellantis or Verallia to their American counterparts Ford/GM or O-I Glass, and you'll notice both a jump in quality and decrease in PER
Did you see the video? US is overpriced. Other parts of the world are slightly underpriced. Also IT is overpriced.
@@durrer9038 Yes USA is like 70% of global capitalisation right now. For decades it has had a net investment balance, meaning foreign countries (including emerging) put their excess savings into US stuffs (bonds + stocks)
Soon or late this flow will reverse. Good candidates can be EU market, India, Philippines.
China has some amazing value companies too. BYD has better fundamentals than Tesla for 1/3 the price. But I wouldn't put my life savings into a market that wouldn't mind expropriating foreigners if the trade war turns sour
@@patrickshanghai2064 Most of the years are difficult almost always for Value investor. It is the end result, that counts. A wise man said, that we have to watch "paint dry". He never said it would be fun, or easy. This is the principal difference to growth investing, where is is always fun to watch stocks go up, until it isn't and one has a total loss in his/her account.
The biggest thing that’s different this time is the money printing. I gotta imagine that has a huge effect.
With the fed balance sheet being reduced, isn't there actually negative money printing?
Wonderful work. Always appreciative that you share it specially the views on macroeconomics since that has been my interest since undergrad. Again thank you!
Much appreciated!
@@Value-Investing I have used some of the ideas you use to explain certain topics as a starting point to find answers to macroeconomics questions I have that we're not addressed in undergrad or grad school.
Lots of good info, thanks! 👍
thanks
A very good video - informative and concise - thank you.
thanks!
Thanks for the quality education, as usual. Very helpful. Some of my takeaways: a) B/c of debt and therefore more money printing expected, inflation will continue, b) owning assets and businesses (like stocks) that increase in value w/ inflation, is a person's solution to the inflation problem, c) the conundrum is that (US) stock prices are high, which historically leads to low returns (thus not solving the inflation problem)....Your conclusion at 12:00 is spot-on. I think Warren and Charlie would agree....I.e., well said.
thanks!
I happened to watch your JPM video from 2022-q1 last night. Projected EPS for 2022, 2023 and 2024 were 225, 250 and 275. It is no wonder those forward PEs are always so low.
I also watched Tom Lee (always take it with a grain of salt...) this week on a video saying that by year end, SPY earnings should be reaching 285 (we seem to be on track for that if there is no earnings recesion), so if you slap a 20 PE on that number we will end the year at 5700 for the S&P500. I don't know where do those earnings estimates come from but if those numbers are legit, SPY is not even that expensive.
@@luigigetsu Those are rosy consensus analyst projections, designed to make things look cheap. My comment above shows the consensus estimates as of 2022-q1!
sp500 ACTUAL eps as of 2024-q1 is 197. Focus on reality and forget about estimates, or else keep dreaming.
It's funny how people don't even know what actual eps is, but do not hesitate to base their investments on whatever analyst projections they see on tv, however outlandish they are.
If current eps is 197, it needs to grow at 21% in both 2024 and 2025 in order to hit 285 by the end of 2025... It's just foolish.
The it will always go up crowd are starting to convince the sideline investors to hop in and the FOMO is rising which is rarely a good sign for markets.
thanks for sharing
Great information, Professor. Lets to think about here.
thanks
Amazing analysis. Thanks. !
Sven, would you please analyze how much money you have lost by timing the market over the last years?
@@mathewwilson9776 Yes he does time the market
I am fully invested, so I am not timing the market :-))
Thanks Sven! Great macro update. It's interesting the US market premium is so high. I think the factors: currency, GDP growth, financial market stability/reliability, ideology, country brand/history, securities regulation etc. only partially explain the premium (if we look just at the market, not the components).
Nice video, thanks for sharing
thanks!
Excellent video Sven
thanks
I plotted the returns of Voo in the backtest of various points in the last 25 years where a P/E ratio was above 25. Everytime I got decent or great returns meaning 8-13%. Current P/E ratio isnt useful in predicting stock returns.
8-13% returns for the next 3 months? 2 years? Or 10 years?
@@horizonez till today, per annum. Plot it in some backtesting tool, I used european backtesting tool (CSPX).
@@horizonezThat's exactly the point. And the relevant question.
@@durrer9038 idk who or what removed my comment
@@durrer9038 Returns are until today, there have been 8 instances where PE was above 25 on january the 1st in the last 32 years, first of which was in 1992. Backtest didnt allow going further in history.
amei, love it,,,, I finally found content. good job
What an amazing, relevant, thought-provoking video! Thank you Sven. Things aren’t looking great and a visible disconnect with the market behaviour.
lol
It's simple. When you are a longterm investor, spend less than you earn & just keep compounding the S&P500 (VOO or SPY) and stay the course. If you have a certain wealth accumulated and your focus is on wealth preservation, buy & keep VOO as long as the index is above its EMA200 and sell it when it drops below to avoid heavier drawdowns. Get back in when it gets back above the EMA200.
Enjoy life! Happy Sunday.
thanks for sharing
great and real content. congrats
good day Sven
If you DCA in the SPY or set a 12% trailing stop loss, won't you be OK if the market crashes?
I retire next year and I had a huge run in energy stocks from 2020 with appreciation and dividends- more than a triple . Sold as they closed in on their highs earlier this year but the oil price did not match 2022. The market is topping if it already hasn’t . Can’t justify the drawdown risk .
If you bought energy stocks in 2020 you must have made a lot of money. I bought all of them but then sold in 2021
I share that same opinion. I've been reducing my positions in several ETFs and I am even contemplating selling stocks I bought based on the fundamentals. Buffet is sitting on a pile of cash, and there's no way I'm smarter than him... therefore, it's time to get out.
Great job Sven on sharing your insights.
Amazing to see how many strategists/economists are bearish - JPM just fired their head strategist - and the US stock market doesn't care yet!
Just imagine the size of the QE bazookas from G7 central banks when equity markets tank - maybe Covid QE stimuli will look prudent and well-calibrated in comparison! Get ready for Quadrillions as Trillions may become an outdated unit of measure?😷
ATM Buffett is only parked at 5,5%. 182 billion waiting on something worthwhile...
:-)
Brst video I’ve seen on the current situation of the markets!
All all your videos, this one is my favorite. Incredibly informative and allows the diligent investor to arrive at their own conclusions. It's pure math = objective. Buy low and sell high folks!
I would really like to see some videos comparing US economy to European, and the USD vs Euro. And why money is flowing into US stocks and not Eu stocks.
Great idea!
Yes. I can see the following reason: US citizens do like stock and Europeans don't (in general). As it gets easier to invest (online brokers, ETF) people in the US are the first to take the opportunity. Europeans see how mainly US stocks give them good returns compared to others and follow the trend. Same with ETFs: US stocks get more and more weighed in the All World ETFs and therefore more and more money needs to follow and the cycle repeats.
On the P/E differential between the US and non-US markets. Can't this in part be explained by the makeup of those markets, i.e. the US is full of high multiple tech companies while other markets will have more basic industries such as mining in the UK?
Japan, China, UK, India, etc. have also traded at idiotik multiples in the past. Subsequent returns were always poor.
The last time US traded at today's multiples it was also a result of high-multiple tech companies and you see how it ended: with 14 years of 0% returns.
In order to earn a return from an high multiple, you need sustained double-digit growth, sustained high margins and sustained high multiples. That is a whole lot to need and turns an investment into a mere bet.
Sven, question!
If companies that lead the market (aapl, goog etc), indeed do not grow in earnings anymore, but they do make massive amounts of cash every year. For the PE to stay the same, it means that the stock price can never go higher. But the cash positions keep going up so the companies are worth more.
So, once a company is mature, it makes sense that the PE will keep going up and up with earnings staying the same.
Thoghts?
Earnings always go up because of inflation alone.
It only makes sense if you are satisfied with the return that you earn.
Apple is a mature company that barely grows and that makes tons of cash but, at over 30x earnings, their 100b in net buybacks amount to an under 3% yield. So you get virtually no business return (0% growth + 2.7% buyback yield) while bearing massive valuation risk, which makes no sense at all. Where are future returns supposed to come from? Perpetual multiple expansion for no reason is not an investment thesis: you are just gambing.
they spend the money on buybacks, which make sense only if the company keeps growing and is reasonably priced
all the compeys im looking at are pe15 low with div of 7% but i think we got 5years not much grouth because comps got a lot of dept i feel
Remember, this is the same guy that recommended BABA at $220
outcome quality does not equal decision quality
could go 300
Baba at 220 had a favorable risk/reward. It was (and remains) a great business with no debt and expanding margins, and at the time it was growing at 30%.
The problem is that growth slowed down massively, while Chinese equities remain mired in negative sentiment.
If anything, this shows the risks of "growth investing": if you need sustained double digit growth in order to justify the price, you run into an issue if growth stalls.
What do you think will happen to Microsoft or Nvidia the day they miss Wall Street's absurd expectations?
company fundamentals attractiveness is not equivalent to chinese government policies and corruption i.e property sector collapse.
thanks for sharing!
Can we compare the market value to the value of the Dollar?
I’ve seen indications that inflation was far worse than what the government was reporting.
If we’ve devalued the dollar then it takes more dollars to represent the same value in the stock market.
Best Channel On TH-cam
i sense the SPX can go up even more on unicorn farts.
level-headed investors and traders will be in disbelief.
Hi Sven, Is MLI a stock you would be interested?
Great content, last slide was great. Though why can’t we do both value and tech. A barbell strategy. I actually love moats, dividends, and cash flows. There are some tech companies with great cash flows. Anyway, good luck to everyone. I think you’re right longterm, but not now. Are we in bubble? Not sure.
tech can also be value, just depends on the price
@@Value-Investing Do you have any tech positions currently ?
I moved to small caps, where the valuations are super low, back in January
thanks for sharing
Just out of morbid curiosity, who owns the US Federal Debt? $1,915 billion is a lot of money! Who's reaping the reward?
66% owned by american people. 33% by foreign govts.
I am reaping the reward from US debt. I buy US Treasuries. It’s a good way to park some cash. It’s easy to do, check with your broker. When you hear that Warren Buffet is holding billions in cash, that cash is in US Treasuries.
@@user-xw3vi4nk2y Thank you for your answer. When you say "American people", do you mean retail investors? Or financial institutions?
@@obijuan3004 You're a smart fella, thank you for your answer. But aren't US Treasuries just a fraction of the total debt?
@@afonsodeportugal financial institutions hold the debt on behalf of american people like their retirement funds and investment accounts.
Also Citizens can purchase govt bonds directly from FEDNOW platform as well.
If it keeps going up, I keep buying.
If it goes down, I keep buying.
Great time to be young
Annualized 15-year return from Shiller PE 35: 3%
Annualized 15-year return from Shiller PE 30: 5%
Annualized 15-year return from Shiller PE 25: 5-8%
Historically: brainless actions => poor results.
@@Amwatson801it’s like spitting in the wind, but at least @realestalex2728 is watching Sven and may learn this lesson before it becomes reality.
Quick question: how is Russia's MOEX stock index so high? Interest rates are at 16% there, there is no Western capital, they are subject to all sorts of sanctions, and yet...
Then you look at China, who hasn't invaded anyone, who grows and produces everything we use... still stuck at 2009 levels.
:-)
Right, BABA is an example. Very puzzling but you are right there is a huge flow of money to US. Riding this is the only way of having significant gains.
Hey Amigo, when would be good to buy $TLT?
depends on your strategy
@@Value-Investing strategy is to make money lol. mini-LumpSumps + DCA until interest rates are materialized and cash from 90ish to 140ish. But tempted to buy calls when they don't cut 2 this year. Perhaps 1 or 0, but it's elections #Tricky
Sven, I am big fan of the channel since January 2021.. never commented before.. could you take a look at $CAAS (china automotive systems). Market cap is 105m, cash on hand is 112m, no long term debt, profitable with PE of 2, what is going on here? I cant answer myself, if anyone can help that is you, thanks
The stocks going up are the mega caps and tech companies, not the small and mid caps.
thanks for sharing
I would like some research on Sprouts Farmers Market
thanks for suggesting!
Hello Sven, if the jobs report is always revised like the April and may recently, then why do people even pay so much attention to it anymore? I am not buying apple, msft right now because they have ballooned too much in value. 5 yrs ago apple worth maybe 800 billion and now almost 4 trillion. This is insane and not reflective of a functioning stock market.
Why are the shares of PARA (b) not at $15. One could think that there is some arbitrage to do related to the merger.
not following :-(
Have you any thoughts on Japanese stocks
No idea
I think the valuation for S&P500 does not reflect the entire stock market now. Small caps are very cheap now.
thanks for sharing - relatively cheap!
Here is my investor opinion. The economy is doing very well; 26 month historically low unemployment, wage growth, lots of open jobs, exciting new technology. This is happening while the Fed interest rate averages 5.3% for the last 12 months. Should the economy decline soon, the Fed has lots of room to drop interest rates to stoke the economic fires. While the market could have 10-15% pull back; IMO, most people will be buying the dip. ENJOY!
This is your speculator opinion, since you ignore business and valuation and rely on persistently loose monetary policy with no inflation and on sustained irrational herd mentality.
Same talk as in every past bubble. Same subpar returns to likely follow.
@@mathewwilson9776 I can’t control monetary policy, I can only adapt to the economic changes. The economy is real strong, in spite of inflation. The Fed has lots of room to have a positive effect on any economic downturn. Things look good until the election. Sure, a random event could crash the economy, but I’m ready for that too.
thanks for sharing
If you look at weighted S&P 500 it's flat
I like weighed and Russel 2000 atm if I want to invest into US stocks. Way cheaper.
thanks for sharing!
Hi dear. SPX has only 3 next relevant extensions metrics: 6100, 7100 and 9600. Nothing important will happen NEVER EVER out of a relevant Gods Fibonacci fractal metric.
Greetings.
Thanks for sharing
I've been hearing this doom and gloom ever since we came out of covid. The market is actually not going up and up. It's the magnificent 7 that are pulling the market. Dow Jones is lagging. Small Caps are lagging. So that whole PE thing isn't accurate for the whole market.
Exactly. 480 out of the 500 stocks in the S&P are basically trading sideways.
The PE Sven is talking about is for the combined S&P 500, so is definitely relevant if you are buying an index tracker.
I'm only buying international stocks, yields of 7 or 8% with growth. Dont intent to touch the american market as a value play.
You should however bear in mind that international stocks had significantly lower PEs than US stocks for the last 20 years, yet international stocks also significantly underperformed compared to the US market in the last 20 years. In my view it is not smart to bet against the US.
Equal weight 500 pe 20.
Sp500 pe 28.
This spread is not normal.
thanks for sharing!
No one can predict the market. Time in the market, not timing the market. This has been true forever. Let’s go bulls!!! Also looking for value, but. Not ignoring this bull market.
thanks for sharing!
Ah. Market too bubbly to find a good stock. Can you just tell us which stock you buy?
Warren Buffett: “The trick is, when there is nothing to do, do nothing.”
Park your cash in tbills or a HYSA and take your 5% interest
@@thetjt “swing you bum” - you’re right, we don’t have to swing
after 2/3 years of saying that stocks are over-priced now there is a sudden change of ideas. Invest in companies...
I don't see any change in strategy
People spent those stimulus checks in less than month lol
Very good videos! You make 5h of work into 10 Minutes, so we dont have to read the reports. Really value here ❤🎉🎉
Glad you like them!
your face is exuberant
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The first step to successful investment is figuring your goals and risk tolerance either on your own or with the help of a financial professional but it's very advisable you make use of professional
When you read someone calling something a bubble you can bet your top dollars that thing has easily another 30% upside
have fun speculating
From my perspective one must be "brain dead" to invest in the US stock market for the long term. If anything the risk is over the next 10-15 years to have a global switch toward Chinese stock market and other various stock market ( brazil , etc) rather than "let's go higher" considering that the US dollar is losing traction.
US seems good as a "casino" short term play, but long term the value is elsewhere.
Just my opinion.
thanks for sharing
Bubble bubble crisis crash
Bubble bubble crisis crash
Nostradamus Michael Burry Sven Carlin
Enron Sears lookin cosy, hold my beer and we're all in
Bear bull market doesn't matter, they're all insane
Now heed Sven's warning and hedge your bets
Because after sunshine there comes rain
Bubble bubble crisis crash
Bubble bubble crisis crash
hahaha
We need to start working less. The current path will only lead to further squeezing of workers time and energy.
The problem with your thesis, like Elliot's and many others, is that they have as an axiom that the "valuable" thing on the ordinate axis is the dollar, but they are all created just when that currency began its dominant period. But if you look at Napoleon's French franc today with those same theories you will find how those maximums mean NOTHING.
Thanks for sharing
If US stocks go up because of anticipated inflation, aren't emerging markets then a very interesting place to invest. They have a lot of US Dollar debt, so thanks to inflation it should be easier to pay of their debt? Not sure about this but maybe Sven can think about this?
yes, the key is to understand investing into emerging markets!
I DONT BELIEVE YOU! I AM 45% UP THIS YEAR AND I WILL KEEP INVESTING AND NOT PAYING ATTENTION TO ANY TALKING HEAD!!
great!
🤣Technology, AI....Blah blah blah😁
:-)
Petrodollar just took a heavy blow. I would not invest in a US company
thanks for sharing
blah blah blah
If Kodak （KODK）stock price is a beautiful mistake, what should we do? Personal opinions, not investment advice😅
:-)
@@Value-Investing Time will let us see the magic of value investing.
Have most of money invested in china now. I believe china is the best opportunity in years. The prices are insanely low.
Xi will love your money...when taking it for the"people"! If you not learned your lessen from BABA...nobody can help you mate.
@@trevorjones3530 i mean people like you are the reason why these stocks are so cheap so ty :) i guess we will see who is right in 10-20 years. See you then buddy :)
This time it’s different🫣