Stock Market To Drop 30%; Why Bullish Economist Turns Bearish | Peter Berezin
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- เผยแพร่เมื่อ 22 ก.ค. 2024
- Peter Berezin, Chief Global Strategist of BCA Research, gives his outlook for U.S. stock markets, economic growth, and the future of China.
Watch Peter's last interview with me: • Is China Collapsing? W...
*This video was recorded on July 2, 2024
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0:00 - Intro
1:15 - Bullish to bearish
3:00 - Stocks vs. real economy
4:05 - Consumer spending
6:13 - Small businesses
7:26 - Unemployment rate
9:38 - The Fed and inflation
13:35 - S&P 500 target
16:21 - Tech stocks
20:30 - Defensive sectors
21:30 - Election and assets
24:42 - China’s economy
27:46 - Chinese gold demand
29:22 - Geopolitics
30:13 - Base metals
32:20 - Chinese stocks
33:00 - China’s impact on the U.S.
34:13 - Treasury yields
#economy #stocks #investing
Is now the peak for U.S. equities? Comment below and don't forget to subscribe!
FOLLOW PETER BEREZIN:
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33:55 says he's going into long duration bonds. I agree. Been trading them.
Ho ho ho,... Merry Independence Day and Happy New Year,.. and stay warm out there,.. when your decking your balls and roasting your chestnuts.
Uhm,,.. wait,... anyway,.. I'm in it.
I'm Joe Brandon and I approve this message.
😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊😊
p? 5 r=assseee33s3³433334 4#=@a rfQ-?-3z
I think we are very close to an equity markets top
30% decline? about 60% give or take 10% - hold on even gold is screwed. tide has gone out your already high and dry.
Biggest lesson i've learnt in 2024 in the stock market is that nobody knows what is going to happen next, so practice some humility and follow a strategy with a long term edge.
This is Interesting because i bought NVIDIA around September last year. The company is selling shovels in a gold rush. It accounted for almost 80% of my market return last year, and I'm sure this year will present other interesting stocks.
Diversification is essential while investing. Because of this, I have focused my interests on a few major areas based on their performance and anticipated growth. They include coins, gold, the EV industry, renewable energy, and IT and health (AMD). Together with my financial advisor, I'm developing an AI-based investing strategy and researching stocks like Nvidia, Microsoft, and Alphabet, among others. A year and a half of consistent growth has passed.
Please can you leave the info of your investment advisor here? I’m in dire need for one
Amber Dawn Brummit is the licensed coach I use. Just research the name. You'd find necessary details to work with a correspondence to set up an appointment.
I looked up her name online and found her page. I emailed and made an appointment to talk with her. Thanks for the tip
Honestly, this situation makes me uneasy, especially with the potential depression, not just a recession. I'm not sure about my $130K investment strategy given the economic uncertainty.
If you're not familiar with market investing tactics, you should get advice from a financial counselor.
I agree! That's why I work with one. My $520K portfolio is well-prepared for all market conditions, having grown 85% since early last year. My advisor and I are planning for this year too. In my opinion, financial advisors are among the most important professionals, just like doctors.
I could really use the expertise of an advisor like that.
Her name is BONITA JEANETTE RODRIGUEZ. Just look her up
Thanks for sharing. I searched for her name and found her website. I reviewed her credentials and did my research before contacting her. Thanks again.
Biggest lesson i learnt in 2023 in the stock market is that nobody knows what is going to happen next, so practice some humility and low a strategy with a long term edge.
Nobody knows anything; You need to create your own process, manage risk, and stick to the plan, through thick or thin, While also continuously learning from mistakes and improving.
Uncertainty... it took me 5 years to stop trying to predict what about to happen in market based on charts studying, cause you never know. not having a mentor cost me 5 years of pain I learn to go we’re the market is wanting to go and keep it simple with discipline.
Could you kindly elaborate on the advisor background and qualifications?
“Iynne Marie Stella” is the licensed advisor I use. Just search the name. You’d find necessary details to work with to set up an appointment.
I just googled her and I'm really impressed with her credentials; I reached out to her since I need all the assistance I can get. I just scheduled a caII.
How do i make money from the stock market, i've invested roughly 80K into stocks but my portfolio is not even making up to 5% increase yearly. what strategy should I use to maximize gains.
I was having similar experienced until I started using a broker to redistribute stocks in my portfolio. since then i've seen a lot of improvements.
@@Pickerell True, my portfolio had a massive crash in 2022, I nearly sold everything and put into cash savings, but i was advised to contact a broker. I followed the brokers instructions closely and my portfolio started to increase by 10% monthly.
@Papichulo-t1s pls how can I reach this expert, I need someone to help me manage my portfolio
@PapiChulo-t1s pls how can I reach this expert, I need someone to help me manage my portfolio
@Papchulo-t1s this is all new to me, How do I find a suitable fiduciary advisor, can you recommend any?
I came across some statements from big investors expressing concerns that the stock market rally could be short-lived. My concern is my $600K stock portfolio is still recovering from a dip of almost 40%, how do I navigate these complex situations?
Diversification and understanding market dynamics are crucial, especially during uncertainty. Monitor both positive and cautionary signals, or consult a professional expert.
A lot of folks downplay the role of advisors until being burned by their own emotions. Early last year after my lengthy divorce I needed a good boost to help my business stay afloat, hence I researched for licensed advisors and came across someone of utmost qualifications. She's helped grow my reserve notwithstanding inflation, from $275k to $850k.
Please can you leave the info of your investment advisor here? I'm in dire need for one.
Monica Shawn Marti is the licensed coach I use. Just research the name. You'd find necessary details to work with a correspondence to set up an appointment.
Wow, her track record looks really good from what I found online. I'll take a chance and see how it goes. Thanks for the info
I've been hearing this same forecast forever. The insiders have figured out how to kick the can down the road indefinitely.
Its an election year, theyll make sure to delay things until trump gets in and is forced to call a recession. Noone wants to take the blame
Agree to some extent but I think the big boys probably want a 2-5% drop every now and again so they can buy back in at the low after selling at the highs
Peter is insightful, good at articulating difficult concepts, and a fun listen. Please have him back.
Peter Berezin's perspectives are refreshingly interesting and most realistic. He is an excellent guest speaker - thank you.
his statements may not be groundbreaking,HOWEVERRR His vocabulary is truly astounding and a testament to his high level of intelligence. His choice of words not only enriches his communication but also highlights his erudition. This makes him both sagacious and lexically adept, setting him apart in any professional discourse. *I am currently striving to become more lexically adept but believe my sagaciousness is at lowest, subpar 😉😊🤭🏌♂️
There's still over $1T in RRP and TGA combined. Plenty of liquidity and govt spending to keep stock prices propped up. I'm not sure much else matters anymore .
13:08 «It’s that golden shower» 😂 But seriously: great interview, great insights.
Why didn't you ask any questions about de-dollarization, BRICS being able to bypass US Senctions and BRICS currency?
Because it's irelevant to anyone else besides Russian bots. China doesn't need this, and the rest are irelevant.
It’s a good conversation. I just will believe it when I see it.
That wrestling reference about becoming a heel made my night lol
Sam Altman speaking to the Vulture, I mean Venture Capitalists is hilarious. 😂
"All you have to do is make a few assumptions" 🤣
I'm running out of money to keep buying calls 😂 all your guests are amazing contras. Thank you for your service.
Don't stress it. The fewer you buy the less you'll lose.😂
Among all of the interview, HeiThe only person who actually knows China and understand the relationship between base metal and China, bring him back David
I really enjoyed this video, thank you.
Had a chance to meet Peter in person. Just amazing!
The only thing that matters to the S&P 500 or one should say the S&P Mag 7 is interest rates going lower or as we have seen these past 8 months is the assumption. And the reality is that the Mag 7 do not reflect the true economy.
I knew at some point the bull market will end and a bear begins, it goes on and on... I have a 7 figure ballpark goal and I intend spreading across maybe 50k - 150k on plummeting stocks, my question is how can I know when a market bottom has been reached?
many investors make common mistakes like not researching enough, and not having a clear plan. in my opinion, some financial situations can be handled on your own, while others are best navigated in consultation with an advisor.
Agreed, partnering with the right planner is invaluable, my portfolio is well-matched for every season of the market, and recently hit 140% rise from early last year. I and my CFP are working on a 7-figure ballpark goal, tho this could take another year.
truly appreciate the implementation of ideas and strategies that result to unmeasurable progress, thus the search for a reputable advisor... mind sharing info of this person guiding you please?
“Sharon Lynne Hart” is the licensed advisor I use. Just search the name. You’d find necessary details to work with to set up an appointment.
I just googled her and I'm really impressed with her credentials; I reached out to her since I need all the assistance I can get. I just scheduled a caII.
Great guest and great thorough analysis !
That was a good question from David. With ecb, boe, boc, cutting, why is the fed keeping higher for longer. For me, I feel like partly it is because the US is exporting inflation throughout the world. We have printed money non stop in response to covid shut down. Somehow we are not expecting inflation? Or are somehow shocked by how much inflation we are getting?
I heard about market crash 2 ywars ago , 3 . Recently in october and since then almost everzz week or two. And its slways opposite.wjat everybody expects csn simply not happen.
So your saying that the stock market CANNOT crash??
Is that definitely??
You don't need copper in a recession.
The demand for copper is only going to rise.
@@illusions46n2Not in a recession.
He's right, the economy is hitting a wall on many different metrics however, the SPX is also exhausting and will top in a week or so, if not sooner. See you at 35-3800 SPX later this year.
Definitely not. The printer must go BRRRR. Deflation risk is far worse than inflation. Japan went deflationary and never recovered.
@@Fearzero Doesn't matter, the charts don't lie. We called the covid crash 6 months ahead of time, we called the ensuing recovery from that period and even called this top in SPX, using EW. It's not that hard, the fundies come out in the technicals, not the other way around. Now we'll see 3*** SPX this year, and then a lower high in 18-30 months after we bottom...
Second Great Depression is coming soon.
@@cjb8993 Nope but have fun being 2 years early. You're still wrong. Short away and we'll see what happens.
@@Fearzero your thesis? Right, you don’t have one, just emotion steeped in confidence. What could go wrong? 😂
The problem with printing money is that it doesn't work when there's weak demand. What is money printing really? It's mainly banks lending money into existence. The thinking is that if rates are low, banks will lend more of it. But if the economy is slowing lending becomes much riskier, and banks will want a higher interest rate to compensate their increased risk, which works against the Fed's stimulus efforts. The situation is much more complicated than lower rates = more money in the economy.
The economy was hot two years ago? Where did you get that from?
Biden.
COVID stimulus
@jimscherer8072 Well if you were investing in Trump stocks with the Stimi checks, that's gonna pay off big in just a few months.
Over 40 years of investing in healthy and not so healthy markets and just today I had a conversation with a good friend after he said ,”have you been watching the market I’m kicking ass !”My answer, “When others get greedy I get going,” “I have been selling every high for the last two weeks and will continue this until the bust.” I explained in my bond portfolio that you do not hold this for the yield but for the convexity and the blank stare back was troubling. He said I’m ok,I’m invested in the total stock market and when I asked if he was worried about concentration risk he said, “what’s that.” I explained concentration risk to him and he said that he was frozen and that we will just have to see . Scary
An economist predicts stock market like a scientist treats patients. Noah, you need a physician. 😂
Finally someone talked about why the FED funds rate doesn't really matter. It's the 10 year yield that does. If it just stays here lots of buisnesses are in trouble. What happens when it surges up past 5% again and keeps going. It will be mass distruction. The FED has no control of the 10 year yield. When the FED comes in and buys up those failed auctions as a buyer of last resort... hyperinflation or said better stagflation is about to hit us like a train.
I don't think so. 10 year is going DOWN before it would do what you're saying.
@@ryandeleon222 what if the FED slams the short end to zero really fast and folks realize that the US is in way worse shape then they have been reporting for the last year and will need to double the debt because that is what happens during a recession they need money to stimulate, and the debt goest to 70 trillion. Then what. Who is going to lend to the teenage girl that has all of her credit cards maxed out without requiring more money to assume the risk of her possibly never being able to pay it back... which means the 10 year is going higher not lower. It has. Broken out of the its 10 year weekly down trend and is now up trending. Money is no longer free and this is the real risk I think most are missing. What if I am correct? It's end game stuff and the US Government does not control the long end. They don't really even control the short end they really just follow the 2 year with a lag but hey what the hell do I know. Should I be correct and we will no soon enough just be ready because a 10 year going up not down would cause massive distruction and if you have read some books you know exactly how to take advantage of it. Should it not go up... we go into hyperinatation or worse stagflation. Pick one. A soft / no l landing was last year.
Still no time frame on the 3750 lol😂
August ‘25….
Great interview.
His speech is similar to Doomberg.
Interesting...Same person perhaps?
Great interview 👍
Are people using their credit cards to buy Bitcoin?
Hahaha
I have gotten loans to buy it. 68 percent CAGR for bitcoin. No brainer.
@@Fearzeroit’s down almost 20% from the high 3 years ago. How is it a no brainwr investment? meanwhile SPY just hit another ATH and gold flirting with its ath set not too long ago
Can I borrow the Frozen Glass analogy or do I have to pay a fee? 😂😂😂
That was a weak analogy
Very interesting 👏👏👏
For institutions to make money, they need to force price to extremes so that retail traders are convinced that price will keep going. Only then there will be enough retail liquidity that institutions will use to close out their positions with hefty profits. Otherwise they couldn't make a buck. Hence, when most retail thinks this market CAN'T go down, is when the market WILL go down. It's close now. A little more patience if you're a bear.
Just waiting until it crashes. I am waiting for a 25% or more drop.
It's mostly passive investing through 401Ks that's been driving up the price of a few stocks. Meanwhile, there are great companies that are values now that may fair better when the bubble bursts.
I’m just waking up and beginning to stretch.. 🥱
Sam nailed it... AI "generally intelligent."
How would gold miners perform in that environment?
Will any youtuber point out all those who make horrendous false calls about bull run or crashes?
Lazy people get what they deserve. Doesn't take much effort to search what someone has predicted before and if they were correct
But w/ treasury yields falling, gold will go up, right?
no peak or top especially when we have more bears coming out.
This didn't make any sense:
Regarding Chinese individual savings, it goes into households but even though the housing in China is a complete potemkin village, "The assets still exist"?
This is the lie in this interview. I believe we're talking about $20 trillion dollars representing the Chinese housing market and at least half of that is 100% fiction. Maybe 9/10ths.
This is a massive failure in this interview.
You have a main line to PBOC ? No one does. Put you head back up your butt hole.
Guy makes sense more then most on
We shall see about TLT longterm. Robert Prechter, Charles Nenner, and other market cycle analysts are forecasting a longterm bear market in bonds.
When countries like Japan dump US debt (the largest holder btw), it will drive interest rates higher. The bullish calls on long bonds are not without risk.
@@billadama Agree.
I’m skeptical on a long term basis, but I think there is a strong case for a short to intermediate term rally in U.S. bonds. I definitely would approach it as a trade not a long term investment.
@@billybudapest3129 Yes, they could rally early into rate cuts, as could the stock market for that matter.
TLT during the crash only.
Globalist investors always consider how politics affect current investments. Encouraging corporate growth through tariffs have an immediate effect, but like growing date palms(long term growth benefit), it will return industry to the USA. What is unknown is if common sense economic policy will turn our economy around before debt sinks the nation.
Hanke said China was bottoming, though, right?
The Australian Reserve Bank also is playing with the people of Australia and not telling the truth. Like a rubber band, the RB keeps stretching out the inflation issue and now considering rising interest rates.
thanks for bringing up XAI80K pair - Watching all your videos when I get notified
One of the mistake analyst make is to compare the markets 6 years ago or 10 years ago. Due to population boom. There will always be more money than in the past and hence Co-relation with the past PE is incorrect.
There might be a consumer recession but this wont effect rhe fact that megacaps will massively increase capex for genAI as they are doing now most tech smh companies are sold out for 2025 too those earnings will come insane
he wants or predicts, but it is risky. You are reactive which is the right approach.
Improbable!
This channel is hilarious. Bears stroking eachother
Love the frozen glass analogy
Cutting funds rate does not amount to easing, QE is easing!
I'm new to trading, and I've lost a good sum trying out strategies I found in online tutorials. I would sincerely appreciate any recommendations you have.
I think all you need is an expert assigned by a brokerage company that will trade for you and handle your capital professionally and give you weekly returns of investment without any extra fees attached
Evelyn Turner is the professional that guides me and her optimal returns are really impressive
Yeah, I believe investing with a professional is the optimal approach, as it mitigates the risk of significant losses. Did you genuinely know her? I was under the impression that I was the sole beneficiary of her guidance through the challenges of trading.
Goodness gracious I'm so excited seeing Ms. Evelyn Turner been mentioned here also. Didn't know she has been good to other people too, this is wonderful because I also started with a TH-cam referral like this
Seeing a remark regarding my manager Evelyn Turner is quite energizing. It was just like this when I first met her a few weeks ago. Having started with just 4k about 2-3 weeks ago, I have already made it to 21 k. She is very remarkable!
YOUR GUEST = MR ANALOGY
do you only interview with permabear guest? cause the market is going up for a while
they make more money on bear content
22:59
U.S. Total Capital Expenditures
2010-2016: +47%
2017-2023: +52%
Home construction went up and other cap ex held steady. Housing demand went up. The counterfactual is home construction going up and other cap ex *going* *down*.
I want to be reincarnated as an economic commentator. You can just be wrong about everything all the time.
And...In the meantime....price go up.
I'm staying in XAI80K till after ETFs being approved and will move into alts after that...
Which stocks will cause this crash?? The S&P 500 has 500 stocks, its impossible to predict what it will do.
Every market expert says...means it wont happen😀😀
He talks about Friedman but not about the money supply!
By Aug 2025. The floor by Oct 2024 is 46xx
See I don't think 150 BP cut is going to help much. For companies refinancing it's going to be way higher than when they financed with rates 0 in 2020-2021. CRE values are way underwater and vacancies are worse than the GFC so prices won't go higher. Housing prices are at 126 year high adjusted for inflation, so those can't go higher, and the consumer is... toast. The Fed hikes lag and so do the cuts. The last hike from July 2023 will still affect the economy 18 months down the line, as will the FFR every month since then affect the economy 18 months in the future. There's much more, I'm not even being creative.
Why is XAI80K doing so well? That is concerning to me.
US inflation isn’t 3% or 3.5%, it’s 11% the way they used to count it, so I’m ignoring all of this and buying more gold and silver. Have fun everyone.
so what american companies are still in china????????????????????? he's wrong about that fact.
That mean it goin to run up more and more ..I don’t see any bearish stock anytime soon ..don’t listen to anyone juts watch the number ..number don’t lie people do
The problem is the easy times are over for the American empire. Now inflation is a major risk since the world will no longer subsidize American consumption at the same levels through the dollar’s world reserve currency status. The Fed has 2 options: let a recession cure inflation or give up and let stagflation take over. No easy solution for decades of American overconsumption.
A somber warning of what the market could do. Clearly the guest does not understand AI. I bet he does not invest in Bitcoin.
The Fourth Turning is Now.
Goolsbe said they should cut soon. Jp Morgan just fired top guy for advice like this
Good news XAI80K will be added to Binance 🚀🚀
Each time this guy comes out markets outperform 10/15% up😂
Nvidia is a factoryless and use industry like Intel tmsc to produce!
shorts are rekt again
One important aspect of Trump returning to office would be the U.S. returning to energy independence. This would lower costs across many sectors.
Great interview!
Very interesting, transformation to “pessimism.”
Dow Jones will hit 50,000 then comes the big crash. Food prices will go much higher as commoidity futures skyrocket and force all the prices up. Food prices are more like oil prices. Generalities with a hundred variables. 25%+ of consumers will have to stop spending. New comers will be spending more as they have never had it so good.
Time for shopping
I do not care about stock. The face reality make me tight belt and reduce spending as much as I can.
Dividends in the right stock keep up with inflation, do yourself a favor
I am at the beginning of my "investment journey" I plan to put 185K into dividend stocks so that I will be making up to 30% per year in dividend returns. Any advice for stocks that can outperform the S&P500 this 2024?
the ones you dont buy
I’m not well vast with the conditions of the marketplace, the avenue flow of transactions, not equipped enough with information. My best guess as to what outperforms the S&P is BRK or perhaps NVDA
The issue is most folks have the “I want to do it myself mentality” but not skilled enough during crash, apparently they get burnt. Ideally, advisors are perfect reps for investing jobs and at first-hand experience, my portfolio has yielded over 350%, since the covid-outbreak to date, summing up nearly $1m.
@@Lindsay-jy truly appreciate the implementation of ideas and strategies that result to unmeasurable progress, thus the search for a reputable advisor... mind sharing info of this person guiding you please?
Katherine Nance Dietz is the licensed advisor I use. Just google the name. You’d find necessary deets. To be honest, I almost didn't buy the idea of letting someone handle growing my finance, but so glad I did.
I think it will be imperative to almost completely isolate most people before they start using AI as a human friend replacement. To achieve that, I believe they are starting with their "new normal" strategy, and soon they will literally give everyone Chinese style shoebox housing with free connection to AI. Average incomes will be too low to afford anything, so city owned bikes and scooters will be rented out to everyone to enjoy their economic 15- min city. Now THAT is control.
Not until it hits $7,000+ first
😂 you are going against the mega 6
I hope Bitcoin returns to 16K. 😂😂😂
How about to zero 😂
no one wants to hear the truth; nothing keeps going up for ever
ITS 50 50 CHANCE
NO POINT SAYING THIS
Tech stocks will plunder for at least 8 months. A correction of the current improvements with AI 86% failure in projects in the corporate world.
Nope. AI isn't like the dot com bubble at all. It has real world use case and will continue higher, particularly because the money printer must also go BRRR as deflation is a risk at this point.
@@Fearzero exactly, i have been using AI a lot for the past 1 year
@@Fearzero Yeah it was pretty disappointing when no one ended up using the internet.
Trump said multiple times he’s gonna negotiate better Trade agreements because we get tariffs That means he’s gonna try to work out a deal for free trade if not I want tariffs because other countries do the same to us
Fake news says Trump just wants to increase tariffs. You are right that the real story is that Trump wants to use tariffs as a bargaining chip to get better trade deals, especially with China. The irony is that better trade deals would actually help China as well as the U.S. in the long term.
Tariffs is going raise interest rates. Trump had good economy because Obama. 4 yrs in office he made ecomomy bad because he didnt take covid serious 400k people die over his watch.
Tariffs increase the price that you the consumer pays for a product. They are actually a terrible policy.
@@CreativeBotSam guess u don’t know what a negotiation is? So you’re ok with them giving us tariffs but we shouldn’t? Idc if it is more I rather not put money in our enemies pockets either way
more scamming ads here about online bookkeeping!! fraud!!
Being early is still being wrong.
Only if your horizon is 3-6 months out. If you're willing to wait a few years it's a different story.
Being early is getting out the exit door before you're trampled. Avoiding the big loss is far better than missing the last 15-20% of the melt up.
@@RichardArthur-jh1ph Stop losses exist for a reason.
Who’s buying the debt? I sense cheating
What goes up must come down, I know it and vegetable lasagna know it ,and all these so-called economists ,they know it .they have been talking The talk walking the walk for a deacade ,can you give me a window..,that window is within 12 months.