Risk of an “Economic Accident” Are Rising, Says Economist Who Predicted “No Recession” In 2023
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- เผยแพร่เมื่อ 2 ก.ค. 2024
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Timestamps:
00:00 Introduction
00:56 Is There An "Economic Accident" Brewing?
10:26 Why Neil Thinks The Fed Should Cut Before The Election
21:54 VanEck Ad
22:36 Odds Of A Recession
29:33 Is The Nonfarm Payroll (NFP) Data From Establishment Survey Overstating How Rosy U.S. Job Market Is?
48:25 Dutta Prefers Bonds Over Stocks
58:42 The Fiscal Deficit In 2025 And Beyond
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Disclaimer: Nothing discussed on Forward Guidance should be considered as investment advice. Please always do your own research & speak to a financial advisor before thinking about, thinking about putting your money into these crazy markets. - บันเทิง
Forward Guidance is sponsored by Van Eck. Learn more about the VanEck Morningstar Wide MOAT ETF (MOAT) at vaneck.com/MOATFG
I dont think 5.5% interest rates are that high given the insane amount of g9vernment spending.
Bingo! A 5.25% rate is NOT too tight if we are sustaining a 6%+ deficit spending, tappering QT, Fed's BTFP, Treasury issuing record high t-bills instead of bonds, etc. There is plenty of liquidity injection going on.
If the fed listened to this guy we would be in a depression
He more or less agrees with the Fed. And how can so many PhDs (in the Fed) be so wrong? But somehow, they are.
Economic accident? They're not going to lower the rate UNTIL an "economic accident" occurs.
Exactly. Which by then is too late by definition, because of lag effect.
I would love to see this man debate Daniel DeMartino Booth
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Great job Neil
if rates are cut, housing demand will surge & prices will go up. fed will wait to cut, at least until we’re in housing off-season
Explain to me why SOFR needs to be less than 5.0 % for an economy to be prosperous
You can't, because the SOFR didn't exist 10 years ago, and the LIBOR rate that it replaced was proven to be cooked.
Think about it, if the revision number is assumed to be correct and the number was released not as revision but as the first number, would the market behaved the same? To say that revision number doesn't matter, then why even correct it. It didn't matter anyway?
If it wasn't corrected, then the numbers would be even more hokey than they are.. Oh wait, my bad, I can't interpret correctly that the numbers are always the numbers according to the guest. And the Phillips curve is a thing.
Everything you’re saying makes sense. However, it all depends on how accurate the data is. There’s a lot of conflicting information out there.
The way I see if they can start cutting 25s soon or they can wait and start doing 50s and 100s with the s&p down 20%
Thanks guys
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He's literally saying, "It makes no difference how the real economy is doing. All that matters is what the fake data is saying, because that is how markets move."
tomorrow PCE lower and July higher... result...higher for longer...
Neil is consistent: in his world, "everyone" (a word he mindlessly uses repeatedly) is/was wrong and he is/was right. In his world, he's the only person who did not think we'd have a recession last year, which would be news to GS and all the others who never bought into the recession call. Also, as was pointed out on Bloomberg yesterday morning, Neil cherry picks his data much like many other people do. His arrogance prevents him from seeing this. Not that any of this means he wrong about anything in particular; rather, it's just that his shtick is getting old.
Ive been noticing this too over the last several months from all the TH-cam maccro people. The fed is always wrong, they've been wrong for years, and the terrible consequences of their mistakes are just about to hit. For years it's been the same story.
Could you imagine if someone got on one of these podcasts and said look, the Fed is full of smart people, they more or less know what they're doing, they're more or less in control, things are relatively good in both the markets and the economy more broadly.
Heads would explode, they would be laughed off of youtube, but they would have been proven right.
Well said
{sniff} The guest reeks of confirmation bias. That fact that he cites the NBER like it's gospel undermines his own thesis about business relevance of statistics, because the NBER proclaims a recession quarters after it officially begins, long after the proclamation would have any meaning to business. Those of us invested in the market don't wait for the NBER, we go risk off when the unemployment rate creeps up 50 basis points.
Is it really an accident if intentional
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Why would they cut?
Assets are high
and unemployment is low.
Inflation is still high.
Catch 22. Can keep fighting inflation or fight unemployment. Fed is responsible for both
Japan banks. FIMA repos can only go so far
Annoying knows it all dude .. hard to listen to….
Why is it that not a single bear correctly predicted what actually happened in the economy and market? But when Neil correctly predicts what did happen, he's crazy.
Bears are naive emotional newbies
Where is this guy getting his data? I don't know anyone who thinks the labor market or the economy is good. Is he on DMT?
@@randomanon7040 I mean it's good for me. Guess it depends.
He could be on endogenous DMT, without licking any frogs. The confirmation bias is strong in this one.
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32:16 😃maybe the data is fake?
Hehe, like the LIBOR was?
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The data is never wrong!!!! Spoken like a Democrat first, intelligence second. The data is always wrong, or manipulatively created. Why did the “super-core” come out of nowhere?????
Keep the rate at 5% forever. The Fed will not cut this year.
With the confidence this guys pushes id think his office would look nicer.
Been huffing his own farts it seems
Deflationary depression on the way
Perhaps, but governments fight tooth and nail to prevent such. The guest is basically a stagflation denier, and governments prefer stagflation over a deflationary depression.
This guest should at least have been challenged on one or two questions !!!?
why are you interviewing finance bros?
? name me an economist who has been more right over the past 18 months
@BlockworksHQ lolz
If you compare to Howell or Mosler for example this guy really has no coherent framework for analysis. Maybe in another interview he actually explains but it is lacking compared to other guests. Or at least he didn’t really express it well. So how can we even say he was right about anything?
this guy is a hack
? name me an economist who has been more right over the past 18 months