If Biden steps aside, Dems can win if they do this: Historian | Vargas Reports
ฝัง
- เผยแพร่เมื่อ 2 ก.ค. 2024
- Allan Lichtman, distinguished professor of history at American University, says if Democrats persuade President Joe Biden to give up his reelection bid, Biden should resign the presidency to give Kamala Harris a better chance of being elected. He tells “Elizabeth Vargas Reports” that incumbency is a major key to victory.
#joe biden #allan lichtman #kamala harris
Anchor Elizabeth Vargas delivers the biggest stories, without bias or opinion. Watch "Elizabeth Vargas Reports" every weeknight at 6p/5C on NewsNation. #VargasReports
NewsNation is your source for fact-based, unbiased news for all America.
More from NewsNation: www.newsnationnow.com/
Get our app: trib.al/TBXgYpp
Find us on cable: trib.al/YDOpGyG
How to watch on TV or streaming: trib.al/Vu0Ikij
Michelle Obama has said OVER AND OVER AGAIN THAT SHE’S NOT INTERESTED!! Stop this obsession already!!
I know she has said that...but things change....never know...and what M.O. says means nothing....I'd guess 50% chance she will run
Teflon Don 2024 🎉😊
I thought Democrats believed that "No" means "No." She already said "no." Leave her be.
@@User39. no absolutely not. You think this because you don’t know her. I’ve met her and I also know WHY she feels this way. ZERO CHANCE.
Michelle is enjoying the life of riley. The woman is not that stupid.
I flipped my WIG watching this guy.
Wondering if I can post on channels that aren't liberal. There, my posts have been getting through. Biden has to drop out.
He is ossified and inflexible...denying the truth everyone else can see.
@@greenscene5215 well, he is old, but on the other hand his opponent is a convicted felon, a liar and now there is enough evidence to show that he really wants to be the ruling dictator of the USA.
I think people are better of with Biden. If he really can't, Harris is there and ready.
Don't brush him aside. He's combed thru the facts.
🙂↔️🤣😂
I like how he’s just adjusting his own rules arbitrarily and citing his track record of success to mask the fact that he has no idea what the hell is going on, just like the rest of us.
I'm having trouble ignoring the fact this man has hair like a Lego character.
Is that his real hair? looks like a wig to me.
Actually the man has no hair....
I was thinking the same,lol....and he's wrong!
One of the very few who called 2016 for Trump and 2020 for Biden.
Lego my ego!
If polls were right Hillary would have been President, deafening to corporate media hosts possibly not to us voters.
Exactly, which means Trump leading doesn't mean anything, if they didn't for Hillary Clinton in 2016, and for Michael Dukakis in 1988 when he was beating George WH. Bush by 15 points prior to the 1988 election when pundits also said Dukakis will blow Bush out of the water, next thing you know election night, George WH. Bush beats Dukakis by a landslide in 1988, only because Republicans after Reagan were only 3 keys negative (false). If Ronald Reagan left with 6 or more keys not in his party's favor, then the polls would have been accurate on election night in Michael Dukakis beating George HW. Bush.
Right now Biden is only down 2 keys with 4 hanging, 2 leaning true and 2 leaning false. If he gets Gaza deal finished, Biden solidifies his re-election by turning foreign policy success key true, despite what polls and pundits suggest.
Hm, actually the majority of the voters did vote for Hillary, which would've made her the leader of the country in every modern and sane democracy. The 🍊🤡 was elected by that obscure institution and hence only was elected "Resident" (of the WH) but never really President (of the country)...🤷🏼♂️
No... SOME polls were right. Just need to rely on accurate polls, not the media spin bs of inaccurate polls and idiot professors using their microscopic sample sized guess to peddle books.
Trump is such a weak candidate that you could run a corpse against him and 45 would lose. Do people think we have forgotten what happened from 2017 to 2021? I don't respond to polls. I'm not loud about politics. But I'm the voter that elects politicians (or doesn't).
@@DrSeuss-nv9hw If you look at the right track/wrong track poll, the "right track" during Trump's presidency was higher than during any other presidency since Clinton. Your analysis is incorrect.
So Trump is only leading Kamala by 2 points? LOL GTFO~!~ Where did they take this poll, in downtown Chicago?
Kamala Harris will slaughter Trump. If she becomes the candidate, Trump is finished and everyone knows it.
"So Trump is only leading Kamala by 2 points? "
That's reality. Adults face reality. Trumpsters don't, but adults do.
Trump is a lousy candidate. He offends lots of people for NO REASON other than his own immaturity. He didn't win 2016. Hillary lost 2016. Tons of Republicans ONLY pulled the lever for Trump to keep HER out of the White House. This year, tons of people will vote against Biden for the same reason.
If we had had a DECENT candidate in 2016, Hillary would have been buried in a landslide, and Joe would never have gotten into the White House.
As bad as Biden & Harris are, these polls should not even be CLOSE. The election should be a landslide, instead of being the nail biter that it currently is.
But it IS, precisely because it's TRUMP, instead of a DECENT candidate.
Agreed. That’s utter nonsense. Harris would get absolutely demolished. She is deeply deeply unpopular.
@@hammill444 totally agree.
@@hammill444 And Trump isn't 🤣😂🤣
It’s Biden with Donny’s hair.😮
Why doesn’t the media report on why Trump should leave the campaign?
Remember this phrase - it is very handy. FOLLOW.......THE.......MONEY. That is what detectives do to solve crimes. That is what we have her. Trump = Money for the media. Simple as that. Country be damned. FOLLOW THE MONEY.
Because the news is for things which are new, and people have being saying since 2015 the reasons Trump is unfit for office. And because the media want Trump to lose, rightly, and telling Biden to drop out is more likely to result in Trump not being president than telling Trump to drop out. And the media does still say why Trump is unfit
Good question
She's free of scandal 😅😅😅 California girl here knows her history - 😅😅😅
That's different from national scandal, which is what his keys are based on. Trump was filled with scandal in NYC before winning
She's freer of scandal than Trump is.
A National scandal.
@@les0101swillie brown disagrees with you.
@@les0101sLow bar but OK.
Harris. Noooooo way
He forgot to include a trigger key of whether a candidate has the cognitive ability to remember his own name.
or remember basic truths about not sleeping with a porn star or cheating on all of his wives or being civilly liable for assault or credibly accused of multiple others or fined 90m for defamation, etc, etc....
If he resigns that makes Kamala Harris president. So why bother with a resignation. Maybe the real reason why they want him to stay in office and get reelected is in hopes that they’ll eventually make Kamala Harris president without voting her in his president.
We need conservatives all over the country to show up at the polls this November and re-elect President Donald J. Trump.
Jack Kerkorian passed away.
I absolutely 💯 agree with Allan Lichtman! Polls are as irrelevant as the electoral college. I think Biden should stay in the race!
If he resigns and makes Kamala Harris President (she keeps the delegates), they win.
If he simply bows out of the race and there is a party fight, they lose.
If he stays in and cannot complete a sentence, a thought, and keeps acting like he has Dementia, they lose.
@@joshyoungforindiana come on man…Trump doesn’t deserve the power of the president and the other guy has dementia…RFK is the best option
"If Biden’s not the nominee, he should resign the presidency" ... mind is blown 🤯
It’s a ridiculous conclusion to draw.
@@Kivancli79 ...dont underestimate the ego of "The Big Guy"
Of course it’s the next turn of events in this election. Buckle up.
Would Democrats really vote for a woman who has been lying about Joe's condition to them for so long?
He said that was Plan B. But if you think about, if Biden is too unhealthy to be our candidate, then isn't he too unhealthy to be President?
Biden must not drop out
Actually, regardless of Kamala, it's dangerous for Biden to remain in office. Think about Biden having to make a 7 minute decision in the event a nuke is launched. Could he do it?
I just got an email from his campain saying that BIDEN IS RUNNING AND NOT GIVING UP!
I hope he stays in the race.
@@walterpierce6061 I just got an email from the Biden campaign.
BIDEN IS STAYING IN THE RACE! BIDEN 2024!
@@walterpierce6061 I hope so too. Cause if he does he might as well hand it over to Trump right now
The keys may have worked in the past but I can't see how the majority of the electors will vote for a president who has lost the ability to communicate the government policies properly. Most of the 13 keys can only be selected on a subjective basis .I think the professor is going to be embarrassed when the keys don't work this time .
Best BIDEN stays and move on because In few weeks this be History!
The issue is whether Biden can actually move at all
True unless he continues with the same behavior and can't even campaign. Remember - there is one more debate to go.
Nah, the crocodile bask of mega donors and power brokers are dragging this stubborn old wildebeest under the water's surface within the next couple weeks, just watch. Biden is finished. As one editorial pointed out, Americans by a large majority already doubted Biden's cognitive fitness BEFORE the debate, and what was seen confirmed their suspicions, and cannot be unseen.
“She is free of scandal.”
Downtown Willy Brown would like a word.
Still way less than the affairs Trump has had.
Local scandal is not the same as national scandal. That's what his keys are based on. Trump has local scandal before winning.
Ask the innocent guy she left on Deathrow. Would never vote for anyone like that. She got to go.
@@ricomajesticnah, Kamala-toe has been passed around the block more than a few times.
@@buckfiden946 Your sexism aside, hypocrisy is the mainstay of Rightwingers. Uluz.
Historian Heather Cox Richardson writes: Gish Gallop, "It's a rhetorical technique in which someone throws out a fast string of lies,non-sequiturs, and specious arguments, so many that it is impossible to fact-check or rebut them in the amount of time it took to say them. Trying to figure out how to respond makes the opponent look confused, because they don't know where to start grappling with the flood that just happened. It's a form of gaslighting". For me as a voter there was no debate Trump eliminated it, wasting all of our time. Trump's and Biden's answers to questions should be written and if not a real answer it is not read.
How could we possibly know that Jill wasn't whispering in Joe's ear if the answers are written?
@@mikewilliams6025 with the candidates sitting at tables on the stage at the debate & writing their answers instead of saying them.
Trump would have trouble with writing his answers because all he does is bluster, project, & lie. At least they shut off his mic this time.
I love Heather Cox Richardson!
Did you watch the debate??? After 12 days back from overseas, 7 days of rest & prep at camp David, that you can't see the biggest scandal of all, that president Biden is incapable of doing the job. I'm pissed. I feel like they have been gaslighting us and as an intelligent human being, I am done putting up with the fear mongering. Until the Democrats get the old ass elites who are running the party into the ground is gone... I'll be a NEVER DEMOCRAT #votethirdparty.
Even an AI Bot would find it impossible to respond to the barrage of lies Trump generates. Even an AI Bot would look bewildered and confused.
This guy sticks to his keys like Terrence Howard sticks to his math equations.
According to him, Trump is not charismatic, there is no scandal surrounding Biden, there have been no major foreign policy failures during Biden's presidency, and at least one major foreign policy achievement. Riiiight....
To be fair, I predicted trump's win in 2016 too. That didn't make me popular in my own household.
I predicted Trump would in in 2020, then he did and I wasn't popular when the system tried to hide it
@@johnstone2029 come on you know it’s not true. they were 60 court cases and there’s no evidence other than one 🍊 person, and one net
work that says this. & they lost a >$780 million law suit. (in fact they settled out of court, because they knew they had no basis & blatantly lied)
@@johnstone2029 come on, you know it’s not true. they were 60 court cases and there’s no evidence other than one 🍊 person, & one 🦊 network that says this. & they lost a >$700 million . . .
come on, you know it’s not true. they were over 59+ court cases, and there’s no evidence other than one 🍊 person, & one 🦊 network that says this.
@@johnstone2029 You guys are so darned cute, in your way.
If he does that I'm voting for RFK in Minnesota
OMG. Why in the world?
This is literally the only guy that makes predictions that I listen to. His track record is why. You notice how no one else likes to publish theirs. He does
All 9 guesses that he made, which is the equivalent of blind squirrel finding a nut results. 9 guesses....world's smallest sample size!
My prediction, based on Lichtman's own system, is that Trump will win this cycle. 1, 4, 8-13 are all obviously false. Lichtman wants you to believe that Trump is not charismatic? What? That Biden has had no major foreign policy/military failures? Really? That Biden has no scandals? Seriously?
He needs a new wig. Wrong color, too thick, too long and it’s a nutty style!
YOU'RE WRONG IT'S NOT ABOUT BIDEN, IT'S ABOUT OVERTHROWING TRUMP, NOT AUTOCRACE
stop yelling.
I don't believe anyone needs a "track record" to predict where this train wreck is heading.
He hasn't made his prediction yet. And who knows where it's headed. You have your ideas, but they may very well be completely wrong.
Thank you for saying that about the polls. Polls haven't been right since 2016- big races or small.
Wrong. Polls accurately predicted Clinton would win the national popular vote by 3% and she won by 2%. Polls only predict the popular vote margin not the electoral college margin.
Yeah, they usually underestimate republicans and they always underestimate Trump.
they weren't right then either
I never respond to polls, and I never talk politics. I work quietly behind the scene to support free and fair elections and democracy. I do not vote for felons and women haters.
You are exactly why these polls are garbage. Like you, I don't respond to polls or talk politics. But I'm very observant and have a long memory.
Trump always outperforms polling. I don't vote for felons either, which is why I will vote for Trump.
Interesting answer. Famous Harvard and Democrat attorney Alan Dershowitz says those charges and the convictions against Trump are bogus.
TRUMP2024!
NO wars under Trump
3 wars under Biden, millions dead.
Trump 2024
Kamala can also run on the administration’s accomplishments: “Here is what we did…” No other candidate can do that.
💯
Kamala checks the yellow school bus question.
" Don' t release grades at Penn: ...GRump
Trump checks the Yellow Peril Kung-Flu box.
Kamala eats more curries. South Indian Origin.
I called every election since 2004 & was right, maybe I should reevaluate my career choices!
🎉🎉🎉
Prove it!
you don't have the media and family connections to make it into a career
Who’s winning this time
That's only 4 presidents.
The *MAIN KEY* _(not in your list)_ is, the candidate should be alive.
You're so smart!
@@rogerdebougainville889 Don't need to be smart to see that a dead man will not win.
He also shouldn't be a corrupt psychopath
@@stevenmartin7159 FYI About half the US presidents (and other world leaders) are corrupt psychopaths.
_They just do a better job of hiding it_
ROASTED!
The polls don't mean much, we'll see what happens in november
I think so
It'll be Trump vs Harris
@@controllerbrainTrump wins either way.
Trump wins.
Lichtman's own system points to a clear Trump victory. 1,4, 8-13 are all obviously false yet he won't admit it. Wonder why that is. You can also make an argument that a couple other are false too.
He’s become too full of himself. That always precedes a fall.
I've also noticed he no longer gives credit to Vladimir Keilis-Borok who was his partner in developing the keys system. According to Wikipedia, it was actually Keilis-Borok's idea and previous predictive models which served as the blueprint. He died in 2013 and now you only see them called "Lichtman's Keys to The White House"
Obviously the keys are effective, but there is a lot of subjectivity in them and history doesnt repeat - only rhymes.
A wise man once told me: keep yourself humble or life will do it for you. We will see how the keys do this go round
For Biden, walking across a stage or riding a bike also precedes a fall.
A lot of people have predicted the last 9-10, or even 10-10. I mean if you really look back, many of these elections were slam dunks. The problem with this guy is that he is an obvious Trump hater who's going to be 10-12 after this election and he'll just fade away.
@@Tyler-vw9bhHe literally goes into the story of how the keys were developed, and that was his seismologist friend.
@Tyler-vw9bh tbf to the guy, he often addresses this during his livestreams. He acknowledges there's subjectivity to it but he also can acknowledge he's no fool and is well equipped to follow the data and not the feeling.
80+ million of us will STILL be voting for President Biden.
Wrong, his voter turn out will be way way down
Keep telling yourself that, but you'll be in tears Nov. 6th.
or 40 million will be voting for Biden twice . . .
If I really thought Kamala Harris was electable, Biden's health wouldn't be as much of an issue in the upcoming election.
It is disenfranching the voters if the democrats go with someone other than Joe Biden. The media and his inner circle have told us he is sharp as a tack for 4 years. He needs to be on the ballot. Anyone can have a bad night at a debate.
And now the media and low level wh staffers are pissed off they were lied to. The problem isn't a bad debate. The problem is that the whole country knows they were lied to.
There was no real primary. In fact we were denied a real primary. We’ve already been disenfranchised. At least with Biden gone we have a fighting chance.
True I've never seen the media blow up one debate like now there over exaggerating.
Unless he drops out Trump will be President get over it
@@bowarrow9229 The convicted felon will lose again.
what happens to your key if your candidate is dead???
Well just because Trump is SUPER OBESE doesn't mean he's dead. But His younger brother & first wife died already so you never know...
No man no key
😂😂😅
@@ollyolly1221 😂😂😂😂😂😂
@@ollyolly1221No woman No cry
From what I see the only people actually talking about Biden dropping out are the news media and a few democrats desperate for attention. I’m riding with Biden. ❤
Months ago, this Lichtman guy said Biden needs to run again for 2024 as that would mean an incumbency advantage (one of the thirteen "keys").
Now, he wants Biden to step aside LOL 😂😂😂.
Mr. Lichtman, a way to go professor.
The clown predicted Biden would win and now is on damage control.
I think answer is fairly simple. The Dems would love for Biden to drop out, but they're not thrilled about Kamala taking over. So open it up to anyone to run, and let the delegates sort out who wins. If it's Kamala, fine. If not, then maybe it's someone else. It's the least worst idea right now.
The people voted for Joe in the primary. He won. Now you want to go against what the Dem voters voted for and have the party choose their candidate for them?
Yay Democracy!!🙄
Which makes an even stronger case for cnn's decision to keep rfk jr out of the debate stage criminal
Biden is the presumptive nominee there is no guarantee he will appear on enough states 270 electoral voted to win given he isn't the official nominee
Cnn really screwed over rfk jr and should be sued for this
This has collusion with the biden campaign written all.over it
Newsom has no chance against Trump, top midwestern governors don't have enough national name recognition. Biden's campaign funds can only go to Kamala.
That would be suicide. A contested convention overturns two keys.
The dems just announced,Joe Biden stays in the race.
Enough with your system! Listen to the people (Democrats)!
They must have taken the kamala Harris poll in mars
I hope Biden can continue running and everything be explained. But. With Biden or without Biden. What is absolutely imperative is to VOTE FOR DEMOCRATS.
We CAN'T ALLOW TRUMP TO RETURN.
We can't vote for a third party candidate either. That is risky.
The American people need to get united and VOTE FOR THE DEMOCRAT TICKET, VOTE FOR DEMOCRATS. IT'S THE ONLY WAY TO SAVE THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA.
PLEASE, VOTE BLUE. 🙏🗳💙🇺🇸
Predicting 9 of the 10 last elections is hardly impressive. The only two that would have been hard to predict were 2000 and 2016. So, anyone with a decent degree of judgement could have made the right call on all the others and flipped a coin on those two.
He got all 10 actually!
Actually, he predicted every one of them. 2000 was a stolen election, literally. Bc Gore won Florida, but the court gave it to Bush.
He called 2016 correctly and 2000 on a technicality (he was "wrong" because the SCOTUS chose Bush in 2000). Most people have also not predicted 9/10 elections. Hardly impressive to maybe a buffoon, but pretty solid to anyone with a decent level of knowledge.
@@TheRealCaptainGold it is impressive. But his system has never been tested when accounting for circumstances similar to those at play in this election. None of the last 10 general elections have had a candidate appear as senile, and lacking in mental acuity as Biden does now.
@@jojothetasmaniansassmonkey8866
It wasn’t tested against a black horse candidate like Trump back in 2016. It was right. Biden being old isn’t anything serious when compared to the lunacy that was 2016. Nor compared to 2020’s election in the middle of a once in a century pandemic. The model predicted both correctly.
for the past 9 months, I have been saying Biden should step aside and Democrats should elect M. Obama to run. She will defeat Trump. Kamala Harris has no charisma.
For a second I thought that was Bo Burnham in the thumbnail lol
I respect the track record of Professor Lichtman. I respect his criteria for predicting outcomes. I don't believe this cycle fits into anything he studied to come up with it. "Strange things are afoot at the Circle K." I'm usually someone who looks to history as prologue. I think in these times, reading the field in front of you is way more important than trusting what past tells you. For instance, his incumbency key has never been tested by a languishing president stepping down and an unfavorable VP stepping in. That may not fulfill the power that actual incumbency brings because she wasn't the president people voted for, or the president who made the decisions. This is poorly conceived, professor. Look at the field in front of you. Not the analytics page on your clip board.
Very excellent take. Thanks for your analysis
Well said.
You've got more than a point there🤔
Well said.
Actually, put aside Biden's mental decline and Trump is still the clear winner according to Lichtman's keys. 1, 4, 8-13 are all obviously false. Lichtman claims that: Trump is not charismatic, there is no major scandal surrounding Biden, there have been no major foreign policy failures during Biden's presidency, and at least one major foreign policy achievement. REALLY? The real question is....for what purpose is Lichtman sacrificing his own integrity in order to predict Biden as the winner? I hope they are paying him A LOT of money......
He forgot two MAJOR keys :
RACISM & SEXISM
it's not a key but it's under scandal keys and riots
Those ism's are valid. Trump 2024.
@emjay2045 That is very true. Sad, but true.
This guy hasn't figure November 6 into the equation, its either gonna be a party or Armageddon
We cannot rely on polling.
I love reading the comments from the Trump supporters... just think 🤔 President Harris...😅
The country can't have another Democrat administration.
MAGA is thinking it's time to look into Harris's birth certificate. Remember, a certificate of live birth is not good enough. It has to be a birth certificate.
I might mention that I was born in California, I don't have a birth certificate, I just have a certificate of live birth, like Obama. Damm, it looks like I can't run for president. And I am not even black.
Oh please! The Word Salad Queen!
Your own party hates her. She was the first to drop out of the 2020 primary because she was abysmal
If Donald Trump win,don’t blame President Biden.Blame the American people who did not care
No blame both
..El Salvador have Nayib Bukele........we have..j o e b i d e n.............
If families who worked in a mill became Millers, blacksmiths got the last name Smith. How did this man's family get their last name?
The occupational surname "Lichtman" combines "Licht" meaning candle and "man." "Lichtman" means "chandler," a person who makes or sells candles, soaps, and other tallow or wax-based goods.
Yes, yea yes ..will definitely work. Kamala Harris for President 2024
These 13 keys are overly reductive and do not cover the full range of considerations. However, if they lead the Democrats to believe Harris will defeat Trump, then by all means, keep relying on them!
The keys were developed with a seismologist in politics. It's been around since the 80's with a 100% accuracy rate.
The betting market for presidential election wins have a 96% accuracy rate.
Both lean toward Biden.
Both leaned toward Trump before he won as well.
Betting markets are with Trump at the moment, unfortunately for our democracy
What is less reductive to your mind? 13 criteria is a lot.
It's worked literally 10/10 times so your delusional for not buying into them
Right now, anybody can beat Trump, he simply does not have the votes, regardless of what the polls are saying. He has added few voters, since he incited the riot on January 6th, indicted 4 times on 88 charges. Lost three NY lawsuits in a row to the tune of 83 and 354 million dollars and convicted on 34 felony charges. Haley even got thousands of votes in those last GOP primaries and she dropped out months ago. Finally, people are not going to switch over and vote for Donald, because frankly he is disliked and despised!
A dingbat can get unusually lucky.
I'm 9-10 also, while missing on the Clinton, Bush and Perot election, however I'm just a lowly community college hack. The only reason I predicted my guy Trump would lose in the last election was the obvious voting law changes and the laptop coverup.I'm going to predict that the Republicans flip the West Virginia senate seat, I mean, see how how smart I am.
9.5 times out of 10? I don't know if that qualifies as luck.
He actually got all 10. The Supreme Court intervened in 2000, making the wrong decision.
@@jimanaz3318 None of the last 10 elections have had a candidate appear as senile as Biden does now. None of the last 10 have had a candidate who struggled to form sentences in a manor similar to how Biden struggles to do so now. His system has never had to account for anything like this.
Yeah, trump did it in 2016.
So ridiculous!! The leys are so subjective. You can go either way on so many of them. Btw he claims that hes 10 for 10 because Gore beat Bush in the common vote but by that reasoning he lost the trump clinton prediction because Hillary won in the common as well. Bottom line hes a clown!!
No, you've got it wrong. If the recount in Florida had been permitted, Al Gore would've won that state and its electoral votes. That's why he says his prediction was correct.
I really think this is a reliable system if it has worked, without fail, 10 friggin times. Why can’t ppl just embrace what this man is saying??
I do follow the leader and cash on this one, get odds too.
@@mrjuvy49 what?
Bet on the election in London and cash in..
@@mrjuvy49 I haven’t heard of this man using his system for any other country. I, honestly, wouldn’t b surprised, tho, it working somewhere outside the U.S.
Don't know about that, it is specifically geared to the American system . Happy 4th to you!
I’m still riding with Biden. The media needs to stop clutching their pearls and chill
It is quite late for anyone else.
The media wants Trump to win. It's all about the $$$$$$$$. Sad, but, hey, this is America and we've all been taught that money is what it's all about. Trump means four years of views. Biden means stability and that's boring.
History doesn’t lie. Look into the past to predict the future. Facts and science are the backbone of a prediction
many misogynists have tried and failed to be dictators here already! The US government won't let itself be overthrown by anybody!
these supreme court justices are getting exposed for helping conald and epstein get away with decades of sex trafficking women and girls.
✔️✔️✔️💯
100% right. It was done by 3 PMs in the space of 10 years in Australia (they knifed the incumbents and rode their honeymoon periods to victory in the next election)
There it is the smell of desperation coming through my computer screen again. Lichtman is in major damage control on his own appearing everywhere just to save his own silly system.
He's trying to Will his predictions into reality lol
He is a partisan political hack.
The media must focus on “trump continues lie”.
Coping bad?
So does biden
He made a good point about his unpopular predictions that still turned out to be right.
If you notice “ The confident professor “ made no predictions …
I don't get it. There is no reason to resign or drop out if the party will rally behind and nominate Harris anyways. Just pacify voters concerns about Biden that Harris WILL be president if he can't make it through his term. And the odds of him making it through a second term are slim. Get Harris out there campaigning as if she's running for President, because for all practical purposes she is!
Yea it’s probably because in reality she polls even lower than Biden. They’re just lying when they try to claim she’s viable in any way.
No way in hell Kamala is only 2 points behind Trump, now that's funny I don't care who you are.
she's the President so get use to it!
He is very knowledgeable guys, I am seeing you guys not taking him serious
Have you noticed that a number of these swing states are kinda crappy, yet they decide the most powerful and influential job on the planet? 🤔🤷🏻♂️
It reminds me of Vince Lombardi’s famous quote “Winning is not everything, it is the only thing” Good luck to everyone in this world.
Hit 200k today. Thank you for all the knowledge and nuggets you had thrown my way over the last months. Started with 14k in last month 2024
Wow that's huge, how do you make that much monthly?
I'm 37 and have been looking for ways to be successful, please how??
Woah for real? I'm so excited. Angelia Marrie strategy has normalised winning trades for me also. and it's a huge milestone for me looking back to how it all started
I'm new at this, please how can I reach her?"
@missAngeliamarrie
No thanks for Harris!
Yeah no
Men: If you're going bald, go with it. These wigs look ridiculous and take away the credibility of the men wearing them!
This guy is so hilarious- he starts off every interview by stating that nobody has a clue but him 😂
Eh, hate to break it to you but no one is going to leave the country to Kamala.
If Trump is the nominee, she easily could beat him.
I'll gladly vote for Kamala as long as Trump is the GOP candidate.
@@jimanaz3318 That's because you haven't heard her speak enough yet.
She’s a million times more competent then trump! What are people smoking? She’s not my choice but wow how can anyone think trump is more competent then Kamala- insane. Y’all want to burn the country to the ground and all its people suffering even worse? That’s project 2025 aka trumps agenda. Literally hell on earth- how can anyone be like I don’t like Kamala so I choose hell? Seriously people wake up!
Yes, because she is of Indian origin and besides she is not white. Very simple.
@CNN. FFS knock it OFF - we do NOT want Joe to step down! YOU are fueling the 'calls for Biden to step down!" We're WITH JOE!
As a Trump supporter, I don't want Biden to step down either
80+ million of us will still vote for President Biden.
exactly
This guy has a face like he was created in a wax museum.
The guy who said Biden was a lock to win a few months ago. What happened?😂
My money is still on ole Joe over the Psycho.He's doing a great job RIGHT NOW not some hypothetical and by the way Trump was and is a disaster.
And the #ConvictedFelon has told everyone that he is ready to be worse, much worse, if he gets back into the White House. His goons are lining up.
The economy was better then. Just go to the food store. And the situation with the open border is shameful.
Re the Trump convictions…
Famous Harvard and Democrat attorney Alan Dershowitz says those charges and the convictions against Trump are bogus.
What was the disaster during trumps presidency?
COVID, he is responsible for over 500K deaths, loss of jobs, homes and closed down the country! Do you need more examples 🤡?
Yes Joe is doing great for the Criminals and Americas Foes, they just love him.
Biden doesn't need to quit, im voting for Biden and no one else.
And that folks is why I don’t wear a hairpiece.
With just 4 months away from the election it barely even counts as harris being a incumbent at this point.
Inspire America with a young, energetic candidate, able to withstand the bully, dictator wannabe. America deserves better.
Your right, Biden is a bully and a dictator.
Biden is a bully, dictator wannabe, isn't he?
I’m like rooting for a day that Jasmine Crocket is president- I don’t think she ready yet - so I’m like we should vote in her cheerleader Jaimie Raskin
The polls are telling us that the other possible Democratic candidate do not poll as well against Trump as Biden does. There are a lot of advantages of being an incumbent president, particularly with a strong economy. I'll believe America wants a young energetic candidate when the polls start telling me this about Newson or someone else. In the meantime, I'm sticking with Biden.
Republicans are saying- please run Harris please please.
@@stevenboldt6489 Not this Republican...
@@stevenboldt6489 I think the Dems are saying that more.
These guy is challenging Trump's hairstyles.
People should not be voting for a man. It isn't about the man, it's about what the man represents and what their party represents. Biden and the Democrats represent and defend democracy, Trump and the Republicans represents fascism and tearing down our democratic system. Which one do you want? I will vote BLUE across the board.
Better look up the definition of Fascism...
@@nunuvurbiz6905: Fascism: Right-wing, authoritarian, nationalist ideology
This professor is great.
Right, he's a "gold nugget" of facts and stats in an objective methodical hierarchy to support a theory and continues to TEST that theory...!
@@skeeterbodeen8326 He is right in his prediction. He predicted the results of 2016 and 2020 accurately.
@@skeeterbodeen8326 So you agree that Trump is not charismatic and there have been no major foreign policy failures? REALLY?
@@jasonlou2013S His system is right, but this time HE is not. His own system shows Trump is the clear winner this cycle. 1, 4, 8-13 are all obviously false.
@Mark-kq6ch the systems pretty good but doesn't work when you ignore reality. No scandals for kamala? Willie Brown, track record as prosecutor just ignored by this dude. Foreign policy is a key win for Dems? Umm is he on drugs?
These are insane days or period. We difficult not to be anxious about what will be at the end of this roller-coaster madness
You ask for our Vote but we’re not important enough to demand for a candidate that can at least finish a complete sentence 🤣🫡🇺🇸🧠🧼🍻
"Can win" is very different from "will win".
Only two elections in the last ten have been uncertain. 2000 and 2016. Dude is batting 50 percent. Completely unimpressive
2020 was certain, that Trump won.
2000, Gore did win the electoral college. But because of a Supreme Court ruling on what happened in FL, the votes went to Bush instead, and 2016 wasn't uncertain. A lot of people, including Harvard professor Amy Chua, predicted that Trump would win.
Read his book , I did Trump will be 50%
Exactly, was no great prediction feat. Take this to Vegas, I predict the New York Jets, will NOT win the Super Bowl in 2025, Nor 2026, Nor 2027, Nor 2028, Nor 2029, Nor 2030 etc etc.
Come to my town. Vegas and take the odds, be my guest.
It wasn’t just a “Bad” night. He has really “Aged” A LOT, since his State of the Union address, in January. The debate was seriously devastating. (regardless of how well/alert he acted at the waffle place after the debate) AT THAT AGE, you are only going to worse, as you get older. It’s not like somebody in their 30s, who is overweight, and starts going to the gym, and then starts becoming healthy, & looking better. When you’re 81, (& showing obvious signs of declining) it’s a very SLIM chance that you’re going to get more alert, & better health, as you get older.
That's one heck of a wig.
Trump should also step aside.. Actually all of MAGA But Biden too
He is good. Love his Predictions
Get Ann Coulter on here.
But anyone is better than narcissist Trump. So no, Biden’s admin is what I am voting for. Biden/Harris 💙💙💙💙💙💙
They keep talking with this guy because he claims to know who’ll win.
Only problem is Biden beat Kamala handily in 2019 primary. He also beat Trump in 2020. Don't get hoodwinked or bamboozled.
And Trump just does not have the votes, where would he get them from, nobody has answered that since I asked. The reason those polls are worthless, is they don't factor in how many people dislike Trump, remember Hilary in 206?
Biden wasn't half the deer-in-headlights in 2020 that he is now.