Copper Mining Stocks Investment Guide (SIA Natural Resources Conference)
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- เผยแพร่เมื่อ 2 ส.ค. 2024
- Detailed Copper Mining Stocks Investment Guide with most of the factors that will impact your investment returns if you are interested in investing in copper mining stocks. This video has my opinion but also two great presentations from the SIA Natural Resources Day Conference in Zurich.
0:00 Investing In Copper
2:07 Key Factors - Copper Cycle
3:03 Inventories
4:00 Cash Cost
5:37 Speculators
7:11 Production Costs
8:44 Life Of Mine
10:25 Diversification
11:50 Marcos Hernandez CIO SIA
12:16 Demand
15:00 Supply
18:15 Bob Brackett Bernstein
21:19 How To INvest
23:50 Recycling
23:34 My Strategy
Strategic Investor Advisors Group s-i-a.ch
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This is top quality content Sven, maeby even your best video to date. This Will be one too return to watch again in 6 months.
Thank you.
Glad you enjoyed it!
This video is pure GOLD (IRONically... 😅😅) ! Thanks a lot for the content.
Glad you enjoyed it!
You give us tremendous value! Thank you🙏🏻
Happy to help!
Thanks, I'm glad you were able to go to the conference and see what and how people are looking at copper and oil. Thanks for sharing the ideas.
Glad you enjoyed it
Good and detailed content. Made good returns on LAC after watching your video few years back. Thanks always for insights. Good stuff. 👌👌👌
great to hear!
Thank you for the new video Sven. Have a great day sir!
Thank you too!
Thank you Sven, great content and great value as always!
Glad you liked it!
This is my favorite kind of Sven video, lots of value shared. Thank you Sven
thanks!
Excellent video Sven. Its unfortunate that these sort of pieces dont get the viewership others do as these are the sort with true value in them. I too will be watching the copper sector in the next few years, probably after oil converges on its true value in the future (I'm a big oil bull right now).
actually it is fortunate, because that means the opportunity is left for us!
oil likely next week!
Best Value Stock for Lithium: SGML. It is both value and growth. BTW, great video.
Amazing Video and amazing research document you shared on the platform!
Glad you enjoyed it!
I wouldn't bet all on Copper, as you showed graph for Green Metals demand, Lithium, Graphite, Nickel and Cobalt are projected to be in higher demand than copper. True that they are more difficult to process, but the ones that figured that out will have huge demand in the near future. Lithium I'm watching Allkem, Ioneer, Mineral Resources, European Metals Holdings. For Graphite Talga (Sweden) is an absolute gem. And for nickel Ardea resources and Sunrise energy metals, but maybe those two are a bit two risky.
thanks for sharing!!!!
thanks for the vid sven, ive been rewatching your older vids they deserve far more views, no one else is talking about these things like you are
thanks, I really appreciate it!
Can't wait for more copper and nickel videos ! My favorite topic on your channel :)
I think the commodity for YT will be OIL, other will be for the research platform!
@@Value-Investing I'm not often heartbroken by YT comments, so thank you Sven for this new experience :D
Exceptional insights here. Thx Sven!
Glad it was helpful!
That was top quality video !!
Thanks you !!!
Top notch quality! Agree pretty much everything. Still too early to be confident on margin of safety. Atalaya Mining and Lundin are in my shopping list.
:-)
I like ATYM too. But the current market cap just seem to good to be true at 267M GBP. Is there something I'm missing here? I understand all the risk, copper prices, recession etc....The market cap is ~40% below tangible book value and they have plenty of cash and low debt? Even with all the risk it looks like it's getting close to a point where it's worth to start dipping the toes. With that being said, I am fully aware it could drop 20-50% more in the coming period
Very nice analysis. One thing the mining companies tend to do when financing is to dilute the stock to cover new CAPEX expenditures rather than debt financing. You may think everything is generating positive returns, but the stock price just vegetates.
Secondly, these deposits are hard to restart if a market crash occurs: they are large low-grade operations typically, and should they suspend operations the raining reserves may not be sufficient to reopen and recapitalize operations--- they will sit there for decades. Popular/political ramifications can easily be devastating. Of course on the plus side the high price elasticities of demand can generate some nice windfalls. I think Taleb's Lindy effect would be a good think to remember in your investment analysis.
great points, thanks!
just what i needed rn 😍😍😍😍
Could you do a video on Iron Ore as well. It is arguably the most important of all metals as well as being the main cash cow for the largest mining companies. In addition, the market for iron ore dr pellets is likely to see s much higher demand growth than that of copper.
Best type of content you make 👍
I agree, but YT says it is my worst performing video and less people want to watch it! While it is like that, it will be good for our investing :-)))))
Thanks for the update on copper!
:-)
Te son sempre El Re ' del rame druze Sven, grazie per il servizio
grazie!
thank you for your input on copper!
:-)))
Great video Sven !
Thank you very much!
Great video.
Great video, thank you very much!
Glad you liked it!
Thank you. Great value for us. Added comment for the algo!
Very welcome!
Interesting and valuable content. Thanks!
Glad you enjoyed it!
Really enjoying your videos, even if they serve to reinforce how little I understand 🙂. One question/suggestion I have - a video discussing the value/role of considering 'Normalized Diluted EPS' in a company's financials over time - what this metric can help a would-be investor understand about the direction of travel, and any 'false positives' such figures might present. Keep them coming, and thanks for your contributions!
thanks for suggesting, on earnings you can write 10 books! So, perhaps focus on how the business creates value!
I’m invested in SBSW mining for the huge dividend and varied mining portfolio
thanks for sharing!
Video salvato in preferiti ;)
grande!!!
Amazing video!
Glad you think so!
great video Sven.
Thanks!
I’ve been in oil stocks since 2020 but I think I’ll eventually switch to copper stocks because it is less hated and probably better outlook long term. I think current valuations make it a 50/50 coin flip upside vs downside. Thinking I will be able to get a better price with likely another leg down in markets
there is also an oil thesis, we will discuss likely next week!
@@Value-Investing a lot of markets are manipulated so you need to know where and when to invest
Looking forward to it
@@Value-Investing ''vermillion energy'' and ''Norwegian energy company''. nice for oil and pipelinegas to europe exposure, but not on norwegian sector, companies operating in norway has 82%tax and higher valuations. The european majors also looks cheap BP, shell, repsol, other great smalers names are panoro energy, CRP, laredo petroleum. I expect oil to stay between 70 an 150$ for many years, and companies dont invest mush i capex, beacause they have been pissed on by the goverments, also underinvested since 2014. oil might fall below 70$ if resesion but will bounce back like it did in 2008. oil price are pushed down by US releasing for stategic reserves.
now the US most likely has blown up the nordstream 1 and 2 to prevent europe to have an easy way out with russia to get cheap gas to relieve inflation in exchange to relieve the sanctions, when really bad times and demonstations start because of lack of energy, and lowered living standars. You are right copper, nickel, alu and other will be needed in high amounts during the energy transition. when the companies are ready to invest. might be huge european stimulus packages when inflation has stabilized and interest rates are back down. The next 10 years will be incredably interesting, hopefully it will look less instead of more alike the start of the 1900 century. spanish flu raging from 1918 to 1920 maby the world goes in 100year cycles, who knows :) great resession 2 ahead.
Very interesting!
Glad you think so!
Norsk hydro is a cool one (other metals) that goes with the cyclicality of the industrial sector. It offers a dividend and green hydroelectric generation for downside protection. It's a get rich slow play if bought in a downturn.
Thanks for sharing Sven! So margin of safety only in 2028 until then it is a volatility play, based on a very well educated guess. But I see a risk in the thesis, look at this headline : "Carbon Nanotube Yarns Could Replace Copper Windings in Electric Motors CNT yarns could cut the losses of electricity in copper wires in half and ulitmately achieve three times their conductivity"
hasn't happened, but what is the cost of that - gold is even better than copper :-)
@@Value-Investing Good point. Will research that. Thanks!
Great video - thanks. Have been watching copper prices and companies for some time, and slowly preparing how to approach investing in these businesses. We might see attractive copper prices in the near future (3-9 months), so have to be ready to invest in the best companies when times come. Your research on the research platform helps a lot. Keep up the good work. 👍
Thanks!
Thanks for quality content.I learn a lot again.I have a little more question.Why graphite and cobalt considered hard to invest?
Thanks
Thank you!
Thanks a lot for this great video Sven. I was wondering whether you could point us towards books for further education on investing in commodity stocks?
I have to write that one!!!!
good vid Sven
thanks!
🙏🙏🙏
yes!!!
Thank you Sven! But where to find the current average production cost (AISC) for copper, any source online?
Thanks Sven, very helpful video. I always thought higher unit cost is a bad thing because more likely to go bankrupt if price drops, but high reward as earnings multiply more if prices go up. But wouldn't something like Capstone be high risk high reward, not low risk high reward?
who said low risk????
Certified Net Asset Value using discounted cash flows at various price points for copper and by products is a good measure as well.
thanks for sharing!
The video is so nice... and good 👍 im looking for investors on the same process
thanks!
Thanks. Enjoying the copper videos as am investing in copper mining and appreciate your take as I’m trying hard not to make big mistake Question. Do you play copper to buy low and sell high or buy and hold for 5 or more years. I see my copper stock go up and down over the years and wonder if I should be grabbing those profits when it goes up and buy back in on the next down cycle. But next time will it ever really go down due to the tailwinds and other things you’ve mentioned.
you can't know the future :-(
I always "smash" the "like button"... Because it is well deserved... 🙂
Thanks!
Sven: do you think it is worth the effort to find the best u.s.copper stock? If copper is as important as everyone says will there be geopolitical issues with investing in places like Peru, or Chile?
we will check all!
You spoke about "Anchoring" in a recent video while reading comments on Intel. I looked it up and think it's important to make a video on this type of bias and maybe other biases in investing.
enjoy th-cam.com/video/9nu95YipKAU/w-d-xo.html
@@Value-Investing thank you!
Hi Sven, do I read correctly that Seeking Alpha under you refferal is USD 99 annually, but not just for the first year? There is no typical "renews for USD 239 after first year" or something like that.
Lovely video, Sven thanks. Interesting times
What a shame EBITDA is a bullshit non-GAAP measure. Ok as a general guide but not to hang your hat on. I think I will stick to costs and looking at the company. That said, it’s fun to try and guess copper prices. Guess being the main word.
Looking forward to reading your detailed report on individual companies on the platform that’s where the value is
:-)) The volatility is our opportunity!
I would like to recommend me three coppers stocks ! Thank you !
What do you think of diversified miners, like VALE or BHP? (I'd also add Rio Tinto to the list, but you have talked about it in the past already.)
those are iron ore miners, not really that much diversified, BHP a bit!
Hello Sven. You once mentioned that juniors are too risky for you. So what are you rather looking at? Majors like BHP and RIo? The dividend is great, I guess, however we won’t see any fireworks there in terms of the stock price
BHP and RIO are IRON ORE MINING COMPANIES :-)
Thanks again Sven! Will you make another video once price hits 90th percentile for lazy subscribers?
lazy subs? RESEARCH PLATFORM :-) There is just the core of it all in one email weekly!
does anyone know if graphene manufacturing development could affect long term copper demand?
many things that didn't work over the last decades
23:23 You can make out well no matter the margins, you can also lose a lot no matter the margins - does this contradict the earlier idea, that increasing margins tend to drag down the dividends?
What are your thoughts about MPW (Medical Properties Trust Inc)? Its a good investment?
don't know much about it!
Thank you Sven, these are the videos I enjoy, no noise, long-term macro economic view, education that show the path but your viewers have to choose to take that path to further educate themselves.
Glad you like them!
What’s your view on Ivanhoe?
copper, thus I'm waiting for a recession...
How are you coping with 17% inflation in neatherlands?
Not in the NL anymore, but I have my own garden :-)))
I need to get a Bloomberg terminal
:-)))
What do you mean with the 90th% cash cost ? What is that
how much it costs to produce a pound of copper in cash! Not including capital costs etc...
of all miners 90% produce at a lower cost, 10% at ahigher cash cost!
Have you looked at Filo Mining? 1km³ of copper intercepts and growing
just working on the copper miners! :-) Filo is added to the list!
@@Value-Investing I'd love to know what you think
hi sven, i have a stock review request, encore wire, a company which produces copper wire for a lot of industrial secotrs, they have really good financials and fundamentals
Great suggestion! that a sector I could look into!
Still remember when you talked me out of buying Turquoise Hill at $5 ;(
I talked you out of something :-) I am sure that I shared the risks if you asked that and my opinion :-)
What do you think about Southern Copper?
$SCCO
old analysis but still with some points th-cam.com/video/oxkSzU5rU3E/w-d-xo.html
Ahhhh...I’ll just wait till you add a copper miner into the model portfolio and I’ll do the same.
I hope to do it twice over the next decade - that is enough for me!
Some electric infrastructure can be substituted with aluminum. Maybe some countries go that route.
Sven, as a long time viewer I get annoyed at some of your videos - as you ask a question, and then the answer usually turns out to be "whatever fits you, you need to think of your own goals blablabla" - which after I've heard this 20 times I already know and am looking for additional insight!
This video however was fantastic, extremely informative - thank you!
You're without a doubt the TH-camr who has taught me the most about real investing - thank you!
Good point, but also keep in mind that in most situations there is no answer when it comes to investing! Patience is required to wait for the right play. I would love to give you an answer on all questions, but keep in mind I don't have one on 99% of situations!
Aurubis is my copper play. They are Europe's biggest copper smelter.
thanks for sharing, another to look at!
7:12 those charts looks like the performance of most of the cryptocurrencies.
but this have fundamentals!
👀
:-)
13:00 “positive tail winds” 🤔
:-)
I don't need a guru for that to know if the commodity price is cheap, to buy the sector. I am stuck with crappy stocks from you which are 50 % down, one can say it is my own fault, but then again, I was not the one calling myself a professional who can do the research for you.
sorry to hear you are down - up and down is part of investing!
It is 100% your own fault.
Copper is down 57 % since 2013
copper goes up and down! We made money on it twice in the last 5years!
@@Value-Investing is it long term or short term investment. How did u make on the way down
Couple of other things to consider? 1)dividends. This can be very enticing for investing in mining. 2)some miners dally in oil which can significantly hedge their production cost?
but only for a few miners, dividend cuts hurt the most! Will check on oil too!
Hello Mr. DONT BUY analyst
that is actually good! So, when I buy, will matter!
Why do you come here if you don't care?