Its funny to me that legacy auto has tried to slow down the adoption of electric vehicles by producing less, but have ended up only helping Tesla get farther ahead. They have taken advantage of the public for decades, so it makes me happy to see them lose out now. Serves them right!
The phrase "Dead Man Walking" (a phrase traditionally used in U.S. prisons to announce a condemned prisoner being walked to the place of execution) comes to mind to describe what's coming for ICE vehicles. And it's coming fast.
Quite true. One big difference is that the change is much less visible. Horses and carriages looked very different from motor cars, but BEVs and ICE cars look pretty much the same to most people ( with the exception of Teslas and Rivians). The thing that most people will likely notice is air quality.
Something also overlooked in my opinion is the glut of used ice cars coming on the market. The value may decrease dramatically due to lack of buyers. Imagine buying a $50,000 car that goes to $5000 in a couple of years. Might happen: buyer beware!
Good thinking. Mercedes and BMW have lost their allure. Used cars from (former) "luxury" brands will be bargains - which will drive down the value of near-luxury, driving down the value of ordinary cars like Toyotas. Oops!
It may be worse. OEMs have loaned money (e.g. GMAC) for these cars. If we get a real recession, many of these loans will be defaulted and the car goes back to loan company. If these cars are worth only a tiny fraction of what was expected, the loan companies could lose billions.
As I think about what might happen in the remainder of the decade as EV adoption continues, it does not bode well for the OEMs. In the next 3 years, as EVs become cheaper than ICE cars, OEMs will need to drop retail prices of their ICE cars, and they will no longer be able to make a profit on sales. At the same time many of the OEMs will not yet have figured out how to make a profit on their EVs. You will start seeing OEMs reporting quarterly losses and their stock prices plummet. As ICE car parts suppliers stop making parts, the used ICE cars will need to become "parts cars" for those that still want to drive their old legacy autos. So, there may be a revival of ICE car junk yards. Most OEM stealerships will either be out of business, or they will only be ICE car service centers & used ICE car lots. Until robotaxis become available, only the people unable to afford a new EV will be buying used ICE cars & used EVs. Once robotaxis become available, we will be looking at a whole new adoption curve, as personal vehicles begin decreasing globally.
I think the legacy companies think they can hold back the tide, still. Others will rush in to fill the void they are leaving. It will likely be messy for a while.
Your right, he forgot the lack of knowledge in US, why have a simple car when you can have both worlds in a 1,4x complex car keeping maintenance business as ususal:)
Keep up the good work Lars! A couple of points to consider: - ICE cars will probably decline faster than plugin sales increase. The reason being the Osborne effect, as people wait for a suitable BEV to become available for them they will delay buying a new car. - The adoption of the new technology will be an s-curve, so once we pass about 50% adoption the rate will naturally begin to slow down and taper off as we get closer to 100%. I still think we'll be getting maybe about 90% by 2030 though!
LOL! The ICE OEM dilemma...."Like having to climb the Himalayas in shorts and flip flops"!! Yeah, that'll go well. Great visuals and perspective Lars, as always. Thanks!
The single biggest killer to the chart is NOT demand. It is the growth of production, demand for new ICE cars will continue to drop as people retain older "new" cars waiting for new available BEV's. New/refurbished factory's take years to build so may be do a chart on total factory output growth.
It's hard to be enthused about an industry or product that costs you money yet produces no profit. And when your entire paradigm was built on essentially a loss leader mentality with the bulk of your profit coming from finance, insurance and warranties etc. If I was a shareholder of GM I would cringe everytime Mary Barra opens her Maw. Honestly the amount of shit that leaves her mouth is just so painfully obvious and yet none of these reporters even bother fact checking her 😒😒😒 Truly Pathetic
I live in the San Francisco Bay Area, which is already crawling with Teslas. My coffee group is well-off guys in their 70s and 80s. All plan, if and when they need new cars, to get EVs. All have new enough, good enough ICE cars not to be in a rush. Several say they're putting off getting new cars until they like their available EV choices better. I figure many people, worldwide, are similarly holding off, waiting for a better deal. Let's see if such holding back depresses the ICE market in the next few years.
Same here in San Diego county. Teslas are everywhere. I'm 80 and only drive around 6000 miles per year max. My 2011 Honda Civic has less than 80 K miles so there is no compelling financial reason to spend $ 50000 on an EV. I'd rather that money remain in Tesla stock. Hoping for FSD robo taxies soon. Having said all that; I have two dual motor Cyber Trucks on order. At least one will be paid for purely from the post tax Tesla stock profits. I won't need the CT but it will just be so damn cool. With FSD I won't even have to drive it. BTW, I'd drive/travel a lot more with FSD. A LOT MORE.
I would have liked to see a 50% growth/year graph. That would have been really fun as a contrast and I actually think it's the most plausible outcome than any other scenario.
I think it is a bad idea for legacy auto to try to refurbish their old ICE plants to BEV...just look at the debacle in Zwickau. However, they pretty much have to, or they would take massive writedowns, and admit their ICE business does not help their BEV business. Between rock and hard place. ;^)
Remember that Tesla's Fremont factory is a repurposed ICE manufacturing plant and it's making about 40 % of their 2022 production. I would imagine that it cuts the cost and build time of a brand new plant by around 30 to 60 % . Of course Fremont's % will decrease from now on because it's fairly maxed out, but it makes total financial sense for the old OEMs to utilize what they have for right now.
@@terrysullivan1992 Well, Tesla was a start-up and bought the factory for pennies on the dollar from Toyota. That was a good decision at the time, but they have stated the factory is hardly ideal. However, the engineering prowess of Tesla is making more of it than legacy auto ever could. It is currently the USA's highest output car factory, of any manufacturer, but it will be dwarfed by giga-Texas because their new factories are so much more efficient, but also admittedly larger. So, VW spent $1B to retrofit Zwickau, and they will still have an outdated factory, not well suited to build BEVs. They also started their retrofit in 2017 and completed it in mid-2020. Tesla spent around $1.2B to build giga-Texas which will probably produce 2-3X what Zwickau will. Also, their construction timeline was 2020 start, with limited production in 2021. So, remind me what's great about reusing old ICE factories?
@@machoopichoo2 That is a really good point that most people and indeed Wall Street and the media seem to miss or willingly skip over. With ICE sales collapsing fast and Eve rising fast it makes sense for legacy auto to be as efficient as possible and acting money (they can not afford to waste) on repurposing current ICE factories is pretty dumb. It is not so much being between a rock and a hard place but more like being between a Mike Tyson punch and a Mohammed Ali punch 😂
@@taefravis Thanks bud, and also good points. I wanted to counter the stupid "analyst" and main stream media BS idea that legacy auto can just snap its fingers and switch from ICE to BEV.
HEY Lars… The chart @14:05 showing 60 million EV’s by 2027 with only 40% CAGR is 🤯. The charging and Grid infrastructure needed to support this is MASSIVE.
I learn something new every time I watch your video Lars. Only 5-10% of Nickle is used for EV market? Very good point.... I wonder about Cobalt & lithium...
I've told my friends/family that the BEVs are essentially different from ICE cars because the MOTIVE FORCE is completely different. The best comparison is between horse-carriages and ICE vehicles. Once gas vehicles hit 10%, it only took ten years to hit 90%. That's what I expect for BEVs... watch any particular market hit 10% and then it's all over.
In the 1900 NYC Easter Parade there was 1 car among all of the horse & buggies. In the 1913 NYC Easter Parade there was 1 horse & buggy among all of the cars. People cannot fathom how quickly a new technology will disrupt and be adopted. That is especially true of EVs vs ICE, as supply chain problems & the pandemic are excuses of the OEMs for why they are not ramping EVs quickly even though demand continues growing. And the OEMs are in denial that their ICE business continues to increasingly decline since a peak in 2017.
@@tomdrewenskus8167 That is a really good point, especially about the NYC Easter Parade. I wonder what the usual suspects consisting of the finance media and Wall Street analysts excuses would be if they saw a picture of the 1900 NYC Easter Parade and the 1913 NYC Easter parade depicting exactly what you mention! How would they downplay it and make out that ICE has decades of new sales left lol
@@taefravis Well, the naysayers will downplay EV adoption, as the speed of change is potentially different in every country and every continent. But, change will happen faster as EV infrastructure grows. I live in Thailand now, and there are only a handful of EVs that I have seen (Teslas & Oras), with no charging network yet. BYD just announced a factory to assemble EVs near Rayong where I live, as Thailand is the 20th largest car market. Once consumers see that cost of EV ownership is cheaper than ICE, and fast chargers are readily available adoption speed will pick up. Currently, China & Europe are ahead of US in EV adoption, but that gap will narrow with the new 2023-2032 EV incentives.
In principle yes, however there needs to be a massive price correction. The most i have ever spent is £21k for my Skoda Superb. And that hurt a lot. This buys you practically nothing in the EV world. The comparable EV is a model Y. Good luck getting a used Y for anything like that. So I like the idea, and want one, but the prices have to get sensible.
At 7:06 in the video, look at the size of that hole in the ground. Who is going to fill it in when the mining is done? And fill it in with what? Just asking.
They never had that kind of money, the quaterly figures would oust the CEO, and now? Who will invest in that transition, do the math, already in debt to the ears after doing for decades what they do "best", lol.
You have to remember the disruption is not to just Legacy Auto Manufacturers, there are other industries that will be impacted as ICE sales fall and EV sales increase. * Factories OEM owned or 3rd party that make Engines, Transmissions and exhaust components. * Dealerships - It is hard for me to find sympathy for this industry and with their current process of selling far over the MSRP. It has long been known that dealerships do not make their operating costs from the sales of new cars it comes from the service department and those additional fees they push when buying a new car. The manufacturer/dealership partnership will come to an end. Ford is already planning on moving their EV products to a separate division. I've long suspected that the dealerships have pressured the OEM's to slow boat their EV's * Quick Oil change businesses * Transmission business * Muffler business Tire & Brake business should be ok, but will lose the revenue for any maintenance for components that EV cars do not have (Transmission, exhaust, engine, ect.) Local economies will feel the loss but should adjust.
Great analysis! I wonder how the market is playing out in Norway where they're well on their way w/this EV adoption curve? Is the residual value for recently bought ICE and hybrid cars dropping? Are gas stations closing or converting to EV charging? The industry and consumer experience in other countries will likely mirror that of Norway.
@@danielstapler4315 Yes, that will be the case in the US too for awhile. Used ICE car prices have been rising for a few years here in the US because BEVs are currently too expensive for lower income people regardless of overall savings in 5 to 10 years. Meanwhile; used EVs are holding value pretty well. Especially Teslas. I would guess a lot of used ICE cars will be sold in Russia. They've got plenty of oil and few emission restrictions.
@@danielstapler4315 not really, as the taxes and duties in Norway are among the highest in Europe (only Denmark is higher IIRC, so many years ago some would buy a new car in DK, export it and thus get taxes etc. refunded, and then pay the slightly lower Norwegian taxes on import. I seem to remember the difference often amounting to a couple thousand USD. This worked because the manufacturers would actually sell their cars cheaper to DK dealers than NO dealers). Just going across the border to Sweden, historically at least prices have been about *half* of the Norwegian prices. When listing a used car in Norway you'll often get contacted by someone out of country wanting to buy the car - this is almost always attempts at some form of fee scam.
Haven't really looked at the used ICE car market since getting rid of our last ICE three and a half year ago, but back then we were basically a year late in switching to all EV, as especially used diesel car prices had plummeted. We ended up getting about 1/4 of what the online calculators suggested as a reasonable price for ours. Now this wasn't *only* due to EV popularity, but also diesels suddenly going from being the most popular choice to being more or less vilified by the authorities.
My creator is considering a hybrid - his car died. But Lars is correct, the hybrid is a "stepping stone," since Doc can't get a pure EV. The local KIA dealer maaay have an EV6 in 8 months. An entire Canadian winter with no car? Not too attractive.
Lars what are they going to use to make the stainless steel cyber truck with. Most nickel is used to make stainless steel which is growing 5 percent a year. Love your numbers.
Hybrids are also very profitable for legacy auto. They get to keep making ICE and of course, service them. That's why Volvo, for example, is pushing their "self recharging" hybrids.
I completely agree with your assessment. however, I do not think legacy companies will go bankrupt as quickly as we think. They make most of their money from the sales of parts and the huge remaining ice fleet will mean they will have income from that for years to come. Even if GM stopped selling cars today they could probably survive a few more years on just selling parts for used cars. Not a good business plan, but it may help them stick around a little longer.
True-ish, but since GM and the other LICE makers don't make many of their parts (due to horizontal integration) that source of cash is not as big as one might think it is.
@@glenngarry4750 Very true Glenn. It's all those lower tier suppliers who will benefit from parts sales, not GM or Ford. Plus those suppliers don't have the massive debt and dealership millstone.
As much as I love Tesla and my M3P, its kinda sad to see legacy autos fail, because they do have some positive aspects that they bring to the automotive game. A Mercedes interior is stunning, it would be a pity if that disappeared altogether
Where are all the batteries going to come from? Where is all the electricity to "charge" those batteries going to come from??? No one ever talks about that...
The talk is always of exponentials but the growth is generally like an S-curve. Once you get to about 40% the growth is more linear. Over 60% and the rate slows. So, I think your projections are roughly right until the crossover point but after that things slow down. The slowdown in growth will be the mirror of the current increase in rate. Love your work.
You'll notice a trend with Lars, he oversells EV statistics and undersells ICE statistics. The movement is happening and obviously he is genuinely hyped, but it doesnt hide the fact that Lars clearly has a bias, and he cannot be trusted with his most of his information.
Sorry sir, but that is not correct. Technologies always exhibit exponential growth from their introduction until they reach 80% of the market. Then it starts to level off. The only exception to the rule is if another new technology comes along that is an even better value proposition. In which case it will die suddenly. Case study? Go look at what happened to desktop PC when laptops came along, and then how tablets stopped the laptop from continuing to expand its market share.
Yeah, that last 20% to 40% will probably take a while, especially as demand and the price for gas falls, making the ICE vehicles cheaper to operate. The poors and stubborn folks may be able to stick with ICE vehicles for quite a long time.
You address the raw materials issue with regard to EV batteries, but that ignores the HUGE need for increased mining that will be required for electricity GENERATION; wind turbines and solar panels are heavily dependent on raw materials, and they require extensive energy inputs to create.
Thanks Lars, I look forward to every single video you produce, so full of facts and intrinsic technical aspects. I think that the limited manufacturing ability of Tesla at the moment ( although exceptional in scope ) is saving the ICE industry a complete melt down much sooner. Once the extreme convenience of operating a good EV is well known, and the availability are abundant in the market, it would be very hard for the consumer to find any convenience of purchasing a new ICE or any of its surrogates.
Realize that Tesla makes less than 20 % of all EVs being sold. It is unlikely Tesla will ever have much more than that % of the EV market share, but that market is expanding at about 50 % per year. Elon is / has accomplished his ongoing goal of accelerating the change in vehicle transportation to be sustainable and non polluting. It is amazing that he has pulled this off.
@@terrysullivan1992 Yes and also what seems to go unnoticed is that legacy auto should be extremely worried about the Chinese because they are serious about EVs whereas legacy auto are not and the Chinese are also making rapid progress with EVs. Sandy Munro(the expert of experts regarding manufacturing) says that hardly any legacy OEM is buying his reports but you know who is buying them? The Chinese! They are THAT serious about Eve that they accept that Tesla are the leaders and it is Tesla they want to either catch up to(good luck) or more likely emulate as they realise that Tesla are making all the right moves and legacy auto are making all the wrong moves. MG is owned by the Chinese and their new EV the MG 4 is a compact EV like the VW ID 3 and insignificantly cheaper than the VW but better in many ways and not a bad 2nd attempt by MG. So if we look at where the Chinese auto industry was 10 years ago compared to today and see where they will probably be by 2030 wee can see a clear indication that the Chinese will be much stronger and dominant than legacy auto. This should be a clear sign to legacy auto to wake up, start panicking and start moving...fast!
for what i learned the last years about tesla and evs is that their only disadvantage for now are batteries, and those improve year after year. Bet against EVs after see what tesla has done (like put EVS on mainstream once for all) is dumb at best.
A big factor is new buyers are more savey, they are waiting for the right EV if they don't want to wait so long, so the new car market is contracting to meet the EV supply. It seems to be more used car buyers repeating the oil industry propaganda on EVs. I've been saying 2025 for a few years, but Covid has delay it a bit, as well as Tesla overreach on Numbers, but they will get there. My latest revision for the last combustion car sale is 2026. I'm hoping to buy a nice track day car like an Aston Martin as they go out of business for practically nothing.
I've seen an other similar analysis where the global sales will also drop for few years as people will prefer to wait for more EV availability. I think the ICE will drop faster than the rise of EVs.
with LFP batteries getting better all the time, what evs - other than long range commercial trucks, will still use silver & cobalt in the batteries? by the way, Lars, the word "ore" is just one syllable. your English pronunciation is amazing! this is intended as constructive criticism to correct a small error. there are actually 3 homophones here: ore, oar & or.
@12:00 _...will it rise, will it fall...?_ The durability of the batteries and of the overall vehicle ( _front, structural battery,_ and _rear castings_ ) will lower the vehicle replacement numbers. Even if it's only by 10% that is about 9,000,000 vehicles per year. (It is likely to be much higher than that.)
Great video Lars. I think 🧐, some of the big automakers could merge because of their debts and poor revenue? Some of them , may apply for chapter 11 ? In Europe, could be similar scenario 😮? In human history, the stronger does not survive but this human who could adopt to changing environment.
Regarding merging. Two turkeys don’t make an eagle. Also mergers are very expensive so not a good idea for failing companies, the savings (if any) take many years to materialise.
We'll hit that in the next 2 years or less globally as China just hit 28% through q2 total market share of nevs. 22% for ev only market share and the EU has several places also over 20% ev market share already this year. Even the U.S. when adjusting for per capita has the largest automotive market place is gonna hit 6-8% ev market share by eoy or more. And the ira bill is gonna ensure we're headed towards 50% ev market share in the next 3-5 year's if not sooner. It's exponential s curve growth rate from here on out. 😎👍🏻
Very good point... This is not so much about a decline in sales as it is about whether ICE car makers can stay in business. You are 100% correct... Once sales of ICE cars declines by 30%, it will not be economic for them to be manufactured.
What about people who regularly drive long distances? How is a plug-in going to be a viable solution for someone who needs to regularly drive 500 miles or more a day? What about when electricity shortages become so serious that government regulators begin establishing limits on how much electricity someone can use? How will we charge our vehicles then?
What happens in your chart if total car demand goes down? Like in the case of robo-taxis coming online. I would expect the lines to cross much faster and ICE to collapse completely by 2025 to 2026.
Robo-taxis have the same problem like all Tesla launches. Ramping up takes a long time. FSD still hasn’t exited beta. And exactly who will buy them? If Tesla is self-financing and entering the market, it enjoys a monopoly. Or a new taxi service or metro will buy them.
@@nickmcconnell1291 I don’t want to be right, as a Tesla investor I’m pleased people are so over exuberant. Just remember Elon time. First he shows a prototype the announcement of a 2 year production date and then he’s 3 years late. He’s over exuberant too!
It's nearly impossible to make money on ICE cars even today. The competition is fierce, and the product is very complex, hence expensive to make. Look at the hundreds and hundreds of moving parts in an ICE drive train! State of the art engineering, super precision manufacturing... hence not cheap! And so many things that can fail. Not a business I would care to be in.
18:22 The legacy manufacturers are trying to go through the "pass of Caradhras" but Tesla is taking the "Mines of Moria". Both are fraught with danger, but the mines of Moria are much faster.
@@andrewsaint6581 I was thinking Musk was Aragorn, but you may be right too. The Balrog is whoever is sitting in the oval office (regardless of party). I am open to alternate ideas :)
Can the S curve hold up because of production rates? Batteries and chips must be available for the S curve for total number of cars to succeed. On the other side with higher interest rates the total number of new car purchased may drop drastically and while a lower number of vehicles the EV percentage may grow more rapidly then expected.
I’m sure your listeners are familiar with Tony Seba who a few years ago predicted the rise of EV and the fall of ice cars well before 2030. The S-curve is just beginning to accelerate. It’s hard to imagine how legacy auto makers can be so blind when they have so much to lose.
Another factor not really considered is that EV's will most likely have much longer use lives compared to ICE. Evidence from early Model S and high milage Model 3's show this is likely. This means that the 70 million vehicles sold per year may decrease significantly due to a robust 2nd hand market in EV's. Therefore, legacy automakers will have to fight in a shrinking market. Another steep mountain to climb in flip flops :)
Hybrid is a joke, they are the worse of both world, ICE and BEV. Most hybrid are boring, not fun to drive, sounds terrible, bad handling due to weight, etc. It's the worst intro for customer to experience electric vehicles. They slow down the adoptation of BEV, not helping it.
Yes i think you are right so i will stick to ICE for at least a few more years especially since EVs are more or less as expensive to run here in the UK at the moment because of electricity prices plus they cost about 30% more to buy.
Watch Tesla stock skyrocket after it has been compressed like a coiled spring, when the exponential growth is finally accepted by even the Tesla bears.
This cannot be true, Bob Lutz's salary was $150,000 in 2019. That means in today's dollars that now is $188,000 USD. He said during an interview "Elon, better watch out. The big boys are coming!" Now, the board at GM wouldn't be paying him $188k / year,,, if he didn't know what he is talking about? Simple math for those playing along at home.
i know quite a few people who hate EVs so much that they swear on their lives they will NEVER buy one, even if gas is like $20/gallon($5/L), so, there's those people, and they're very vocal on just about every comments section about anything EVs
Me too. It would focus on the cost and complexity. unfortunately most hybrids are not being driven for maximum efficiency, they could be sort of OK but it's not happening.
With the cost of a replacement battery for a Tesla being around $23k or more not many will actually wish to buy an EV if they are told the truth about things like this. Since cars already run on hydrogen the ICE vehicles just need to switch the source of where they hydrogen comes from. Now that a company has achieved 98% efficiency on hydrogen production from water fossil fuels don't stand a chance and know there are even better technologies out there to allow ICE vehicles to switch the source where they get their hydrogen from. Now that Africa is starting to Unite the materials that go into making EV's will start to pay their fair share to Africans as they always should have been doing all along. No more freebees.
Hi Lars Craig here from Western Australia. Joe Bite-Me will Crash the American Economy and so a huge market will disappear. The reason why::) debt and interest rates on that Debt! Also Huge Tax increases as well. Hope it doesn't happen but it will. Thanks for your promotion of Tesla and ATB, TC.
I agree, because imo , there a too few people, especially here in the USA, that are interested in cars and the car market. Those people have no clue what is taking place , that the entire automobile market is slowly and swiftly (!) switching to electric. Most of those people will not reject electric as a few people who comment say they do( “ I will be driving gas vehicles as long as I live, I will never buy an electric vehicle “) , they will just simply buy what’s available and adapt, learn the benefits of owning an electric vehicle, get an electrician to install for home charging, find out about the growing charging infrastructure, and go about their lives. Nothing the current ICE lovers say or do will stop this. Thanks Elon, and thanks Lars!
Used ICE market will be saturated with cheap barely used cars for years. So in that market the shift may take 10 years more, especially in places where most people cannot ever afford a new car. Extremely cheap new electric cars may cut this trend short, because EVs have the potential to be very significantly cheaper than ICE cars, they are much simpler after all.
Hybrids are worse than ICE cars. You cannot claim hybrids on the electric side of the ledger. Speak to people with hybrids and they are being used as far less efficient ICE cars - not as electric cars. They are made by legacy auto to beat the EU fleet CO2 quota. Tesla has a dilemma. Keep 25% gross margin or attack the bottom 70%(?) of the market. In the UK a basic MY cost more than an E Class Cabriolet.
It has already happened, but they bought into the wrong ones. Does Nikola ring a bell ? Legacy auto now have their own internal EV "start up' Divisions and they are ramping up as quickly as supply allows; mostly batteries and chips. One glaring exception is Toyota. They are just beginning to nibble at the EV thing and still seem to think that Hydrogen is a viable path. Wouldn't it be so darn fitting if Tesla decided to open a plant in Japan ? I don't think they will since Tesla can ship all the cars they want to Japan from Shanghai. Might be the balance between tariffs and material supply. Osaka would be perfect.
@@terrysullivan1992 I was meaning that legacy auto buys a startup that is already selling vehicles successfully for the ip of how to build a successful EV and then using the legacy auto's scale to ramp up the production of said EV's. I don't think Nikola counts, GM had previously put EV's in customers hands (EV1) and Nikola hadn't so I don't think that purchase counts as a means to catch up.
@@girowinters same here. Not so much for the environment, but everything else that comes from owning an ev . Tesla owner here to be clear. The tech is so good it's hard to ignore. I bought mine because for me to get the same performance I would have to pay more, and that's not even talking about maintenance. The environment being saved along the way is a good bonus. 👍
How big will the collector and ICE sports market be long-term? The collapse of ICE fuel and service will make the used car market crash and that is super depreciation. ICE cars are risky to buy now in my opinion. No wonder the EV demand.
Its funny to me that legacy auto has tried to slow down the adoption of electric vehicles by producing less, but have ended up only helping Tesla get farther ahead. They have taken advantage of the public for decades, so it makes me happy to see them lose out now. Serves them right!
And it's also given Chinese companies the time they need to catch up and pass them as well, in addition to making their cars safe too.
Screw OEMs.
As Forrest Gump's Mom explained, "stupid is, as stupid does."
Ouch
Love it! I don't really think people know how OEM's have been screwing us! (Along with big oil)
The phrase "Dead Man Walking" (a phrase traditionally used in U.S. prisons to announce a condemned prisoner being walked to the place of execution) comes to mind to describe what's coming for ICE vehicles. And it's coming fast.
Quite true. One big difference is that the change is much less visible. Horses and carriages looked very different from motor cars, but BEVs and ICE cars look pretty much the same to most people ( with the exception of Teslas and Rivians). The thing that most people will likely notice is air quality.
Something also overlooked in my opinion is the glut of used ice cars coming on the market. The value may decrease dramatically due to lack of buyers. Imagine buying a $50,000 car that goes to $5000 in a couple of years. Might happen: buyer beware!
Good thinking. Mercedes and BMW have lost their allure. Used cars from (former) "luxury" brands will be bargains - which will drive down the value of near-luxury, driving down the value of ordinary cars like Toyotas. Oops!
It may be worse. OEMs have loaned money (e.g. GMAC) for these cars. If we get a real recession, many of these loans will be defaulted and the car goes back to loan company. If these cars are worth only a tiny fraction of what was expected, the loan companies could lose billions.
Some people will be buying the car for $5000 so I doubt it will drop by that much.
As I think about what might happen in the remainder of the decade as EV adoption continues, it does not bode well for the OEMs.
In the next 3 years, as EVs become cheaper than ICE cars, OEMs will need to drop retail prices of their ICE cars, and they will no longer be able to make a profit on sales. At the same time many of the OEMs will not yet have figured out how to make a profit on their EVs. You will start seeing OEMs reporting quarterly losses and their stock prices plummet.
As ICE car parts suppliers stop making parts, the used ICE cars will need to become "parts cars" for those that still want to drive their old legacy autos. So, there may be a revival of ICE car junk yards. Most OEM stealerships will either be out of business, or they will only be ICE car service centers & used ICE car lots. Until robotaxis become available, only the people unable to afford a new EV will be buying used ICE cars & used EVs. Once robotaxis become available, we will be looking at a whole new adoption curve, as personal vehicles begin decreasing globally.
"paid cash for the car but the fuel is on credit"
I think the legacy companies think they can hold back the tide, still. Others will rush in to fill the void they are leaving. It will likely be messy for a while.
“ No one will be stupid enough to buy a hybrid“
Hey Lars have you been to America? 😂😂
Your right, he forgot the lack of knowledge in US, why have a simple car when you can have both worlds in a 1,4x complex car keeping maintenance business as ususal:)
I bought a Prius 3 - NEVER AGAIN!!! Next car will be an EV!!!
@@christhomas5804 Prius prime rules over any range car.
He has but it's not readily visible. Lots of stupid and/or misinformed people here in the USA.
Absolutely. This will happen so fast people will be standing around at the gas station wondering What Happened?
At the closed gas station.
Lars, the succinct way you cut thru the FUD conventional "wisdom" is a joy to behold!! The definition of killing it!
👍👍 Thanks for watching
Let's talk now 🔝🔝
Keep up the good work Lars! A couple of points to consider:
- ICE cars will probably decline faster than plugin sales increase. The reason being the Osborne effect, as people wait for a suitable BEV to become available for them they will delay buying a new car.
- The adoption of the new technology will be an s-curve, so once we pass about 50% adoption the rate will naturally begin to slow down and taper off as we get closer to 100%. I still think we'll be getting maybe about 90% by 2030 though!
Yes, just so.
LOL! The ICE OEM dilemma...."Like having to climb the Himalayas in shorts and flip flops"!! Yeah, that'll go well. Great visuals and perspective Lars, as always. Thanks!
👍👍 Thanks for watching
Let's talk now 🔝🔝
Yep! That about sums up the situation for Legacy Auto. Well done Lars!
Thank you for excellent content as always.
The single biggest killer to the chart is NOT demand. It is the growth of production, demand for new ICE cars will continue to drop as people retain older "new" cars waiting for new available BEV's. New/refurbished factory's take years to build so may be do a chart on total factory output growth.
It's hard to be enthused about an industry or product that costs you money yet produces no profit. And when your entire paradigm was built on essentially a loss leader mentality with the bulk of your profit coming from finance, insurance and warranties etc.
If I was a shareholder of GM I would cringe everytime Mary Barra opens her Maw. Honestly the amount of shit that leaves her mouth is just so painfully obvious and yet none of these reporters even bother fact checking her 😒😒😒 Truly Pathetic
I live in the San Francisco Bay Area, which is already crawling with Teslas. My coffee group is well-off guys in their 70s and 80s. All plan, if and when they need new cars, to get EVs. All have new enough, good enough ICE cars not to be in a rush. Several say they're putting off getting new cars until they like their available EV choices better. I figure many people, worldwide, are similarly holding off, waiting for a better deal. Let's see if such holding back depresses the ICE market in the next few years.
Unlikely, their delay will cost your friends big time when they sell their ice vehicles a couple years too late.
Same here in San Diego county. Teslas are everywhere. I'm 80 and only drive around 6000 miles per year max. My 2011 Honda Civic has less than 80 K miles so there is no compelling financial reason to spend $ 50000 on an EV. I'd rather that money remain in Tesla stock. Hoping for FSD robo taxies soon. Having said all that; I have two dual motor Cyber Trucks on order. At least one will be paid for purely from the post tax Tesla stock profits. I won't need the CT but it will just be so damn cool. With FSD I won't even have to drive it. BTW, I'd drive/travel a lot more with FSD. A LOT MORE.
Nice analogy at the end there. Thanks for all your hard work and passion Lars!
Hi Lars, this Video really reminds me of my Bachelor Thesis i have sent to you. Nicely done!
thanks Lars
I would have liked to see a 50% growth/year graph. That would have been really fun as a contrast and I actually think it's the most plausible outcome than any other scenario.
I think it is a bad idea for legacy auto to try to refurbish their old ICE plants to BEV...just look at the debacle in Zwickau. However, they pretty much have to, or they would take massive writedowns, and admit their ICE business does not help their BEV business. Between rock and hard place. ;^)
Remember that Tesla's Fremont factory is a repurposed ICE manufacturing plant and it's making about 40 % of their 2022 production. I would imagine that it cuts the cost and build time of a brand new plant by around 30 to 60 % . Of course Fremont's % will decrease from now on because it's fairly maxed out, but it makes total financial sense for the old OEMs to utilize what they have for right now.
@@terrysullivan1992 Well, Tesla was a start-up and bought the factory for pennies on the dollar from Toyota. That was a good decision at the time, but they have stated the factory is hardly ideal. However, the engineering prowess of Tesla is making more of it than legacy auto ever could. It is currently the USA's highest output car factory, of any manufacturer, but it will be dwarfed by giga-Texas because their new factories are so much more efficient, but also admittedly larger.
So, VW spent $1B to retrofit Zwickau, and they will still have an outdated factory, not well suited to build BEVs. They also started their retrofit in 2017 and completed it in mid-2020.
Tesla spent around $1.2B to build giga-Texas which will probably produce 2-3X what Zwickau will. Also, their construction timeline was 2020 start, with limited production in 2021. So, remind me what's great about reusing old ICE factories?
@@machoopichoo2 That is a really good point that most people and indeed Wall Street and the media seem to miss or willingly skip over.
With ICE sales collapsing fast and Eve rising fast it makes sense for legacy auto to be as efficient as possible and acting money (they can not afford to waste) on repurposing current ICE factories is pretty dumb.
It is not so much being between a rock and a hard place but more like being between a Mike Tyson punch and a Mohammed Ali punch 😂
@@taefravis Thanks bud, and also good points.
I wanted to counter the stupid "analyst" and main stream media BS idea that legacy auto can just snap its fingers and switch from ICE to BEV.
@@machoopichoo2 Didn't Bob Lutz say in 2019, "Tesla better watch out, the Big Boys are coming!" 🤣
One day I m going to meet all members of this TH-cam channel... I love your all videos.. love you guyzzz proud to be your subscriber...
HEY Lars… The chart @14:05 showing 60 million EV’s by 2027 with only 40% CAGR is 🤯. The charging and Grid infrastructure needed to support this is MASSIVE.
10:05 The graph is a beautifully succinct debunking of the CW that ICE will still have 50% MS in 2030.
And the 'whistling my way to the bank' background music just adds to it.
Who in their right mind would buy an ICE car in the next 2-3 years as that car will have no value 2-3 years after that.
At 18:00...don't forget the the effects of debt for legacy on your list of reaons ...... something you have discussed before.
I learn something new every time I watch your video Lars. Only 5-10% of Nickle is used for EV market? Very good point.... I wonder about Cobalt & lithium...
I've told my friends/family that the BEVs are essentially different from ICE cars because the MOTIVE FORCE is completely different. The best comparison is between horse-carriages and ICE vehicles. Once gas vehicles hit 10%, it only took ten years to hit 90%. That's what I expect for BEVs... watch any particular market hit 10% and then it's all over.
In the 1900 NYC Easter Parade there was 1 car among all of the horse & buggies. In the 1913 NYC Easter Parade there was 1 horse & buggy among all of the cars. People cannot fathom how quickly a new technology will disrupt and be adopted. That is especially true of EVs vs ICE, as supply chain problems & the pandemic are excuses of the OEMs for why they are not ramping EVs quickly even though demand continues growing. And the OEMs are in denial that their ICE business continues to increasingly decline since a peak in 2017.
@@tomdrewenskus8167 That is a really good point, especially about the NYC Easter Parade. I wonder what the usual suspects consisting of the finance media and Wall Street analysts excuses would be if they saw a picture of the 1900 NYC Easter Parade and the 1913 NYC Easter parade depicting exactly what you mention!
How would they downplay it and make out that ICE has decades of new sales left lol
@@taefravis Well, the naysayers will downplay EV adoption, as the speed of change is potentially different in every country and every continent. But, change will happen faster as EV infrastructure grows. I live in Thailand now, and there are only a handful of EVs that I have seen (Teslas & Oras), with no charging network yet. BYD just announced a factory to assemble EVs near Rayong where I live, as Thailand is the 20th largest car market. Once consumers see that cost of EV ownership is cheaper than ICE, and fast chargers are readily available adoption speed will pick up. Currently, China & Europe are ahead of US in EV adoption, but that gap will narrow with the new 2023-2032 EV incentives.
In principle yes, however there needs to be a massive price correction. The most i have ever spent is £21k for my Skoda Superb. And that hurt a lot. This buys you practically nothing in the EV world. The comparable EV is a model Y. Good luck getting a used Y for anything like that.
So I like the idea, and want one, but the prices have to get sensible.
Thanks!
At 7:06 in the video, look at the size of that hole in the ground. Who is going to fill it in when the mining is done? And fill it in with what? Just asking.
It fills itself naturally. Unfortunately, with toxic water.
Ford and GM have spent 20 billion each trying to climb that mountain. If they had done that 10 years ago, they would have survived.
They never had that kind of money, the quaterly figures would oust the CEO, and now? Who will invest in that transition, do the math, already in debt to the ears after doing for decades what they do "best", lol.
A hybrid is an ICE car.
You have to remember the disruption is not to just Legacy Auto Manufacturers, there are other industries that will be impacted as ICE sales fall and EV sales increase.
* Factories OEM owned or 3rd party that make Engines, Transmissions and exhaust components.
* Dealerships - It is hard for me to find sympathy for this industry and with their current process of selling far over the MSRP. It has long been known that dealerships do not make their operating costs from the sales of new cars it comes from the service department and those additional fees they push when buying a new car. The manufacturer/dealership partnership will come to an end. Ford is already planning on moving their EV products to a separate division. I've long suspected that the dealerships have pressured the OEM's to slow boat their EV's
* Quick Oil change businesses
* Transmission business
* Muffler business
Tire & Brake business should be ok, but will lose the revenue for any maintenance for components that EV cars do not have (Transmission, exhaust, engine, ect.)
Local economies will feel the loss but should adjust.
Great analysis! I wonder how the market is playing out in Norway where they're well on their way w/this EV adoption curve? Is the residual value for recently bought ICE and hybrid cars dropping? Are gas stations closing or converting to EV charging? The industry and consumer experience in other countries will likely mirror that of Norway.
Good questions. Worth an episode on these.
I assume the Norwegian ICE cars can be sold in other parts of Europe so that limits the price drop.
@@danielstapler4315 Yes, that will be the case in the US too for awhile. Used ICE car prices have been rising for a few years here in the US because BEVs are currently too expensive for lower income people regardless of overall savings in 5 to 10 years. Meanwhile; used EVs are holding value pretty well. Especially Teslas. I would guess a lot of used ICE cars will be sold in Russia. They've got plenty of oil and few emission restrictions.
@@danielstapler4315 not really, as the taxes and duties in Norway are among the highest in Europe (only Denmark is higher IIRC, so many years ago some would buy a new car in DK, export it and thus get taxes etc. refunded, and then pay the slightly lower Norwegian taxes on import. I seem to remember the difference often amounting to a couple thousand USD. This worked because the manufacturers would actually sell their cars cheaper to DK dealers than NO dealers).
Just going across the border to Sweden, historically at least prices have been about *half* of the Norwegian prices. When listing a used car in Norway you'll often get contacted by someone out of country wanting to buy the car - this is almost always attempts at some form of fee scam.
Haven't really looked at the used ICE car market since getting rid of our last ICE three and a half year ago, but back then we were basically a year late in switching to all EV, as especially used diesel car prices had plummeted. We ended up getting about 1/4 of what the online calculators suggested as a reasonable price for ours.
Now this wasn't *only* due to EV popularity, but also diesels suddenly going from being the most popular choice to being more or less vilified by the authorities.
Vale is pronounce “va - lay” it is a Brazilian company and thus think Portuguese pronunciation.
Ternary batteries are economically recyclable. In the end the old batteries are the new raw materials.
The mining company "Vale" is a Brazilian company. It's name is pronounced "Var-lay"
Well done Lars! 👍
🤗👍 THANKS LARS
Keep on sharing with a good news, some might listen 🤷♂️💚💚💚
My creator is considering a hybrid - his car died. But Lars is correct, the hybrid is a "stepping stone," since Doc can't get a pure EV. The local KIA dealer maaay have an EV6 in 8 months. An entire Canadian winter with no car? Not too attractive.
Lol flip flops, good analogy
Great work Lars!
Lars what are they going to use to make the stainless steel cyber truck with. Most nickel is used to make stainless steel which is growing 5 percent a year. Love your numbers.
Hybrids are also very profitable for legacy auto. They get to keep making ICE and of course, service them. That's why Volvo, for example, is pushing their "self recharging" hybrids.
I thought that was Toyota?
@@taefravis Yes, Toyota is the greatest denier.
Giga metals!!!❤ 30cents per share
Excellent visualization.
I completely agree with your assessment. however, I do not think legacy companies will go bankrupt as quickly as we think. They make most of their money from the sales of parts and the huge remaining ice fleet will mean they will have income from that for years to come. Even if GM stopped selling cars today they could probably survive a few more years on just selling parts for used cars. Not a good business plan, but it may help them stick around a little longer.
True-ish, but since GM and the other LICE makers don't make many of their parts (due to horizontal integration) that source of cash is not as big as one might think it is.
@@glenngarry4750 Very true Glenn. It's all those lower tier suppliers who will benefit from parts sales, not
GM or Ford. Plus those suppliers don't have the massive debt and dealership millstone.
Shorts and flip flops!!!!!! 🤣😂🤣😂🤣😂😂🤣🤣🤣🤣🤪🤪🤪🤪🤪😵😵😵💫😵💫😵💫
Thanks
Trends have to be deep. The most important trend is the cost and availability of raw materials for batteries and magnets.
As much as I love Tesla and my M3P, its kinda sad to see legacy autos fail, because they do have some positive aspects that they bring to the automotive game. A Mercedes interior is stunning, it would be a pity if that disappeared altogether
Where are all the batteries going to come from? Where is all the electricity to "charge" those batteries going to come from??? No one ever talks about that...
the sun
The talk is always of exponentials but the growth is generally like an S-curve. Once you get to about 40% the growth is more linear. Over 60% and the rate slows. So, I think your projections are roughly right until the crossover point but after that things slow down. The slowdown in growth will be the mirror of the current increase in rate.
Love your work.
You'll notice a trend with Lars, he oversells EV statistics and undersells ICE statistics. The movement is happening and obviously he is genuinely hyped, but it doesnt hide the fact that Lars clearly has a bias, and he cannot be trusted with his most of his information.
Thinking of smartphones as an example they caught on pretty quickly. I think EVs will follow smartphones sales.
Sorry sir, but that is not correct. Technologies always exhibit exponential growth from their introduction until they reach 80% of the market. Then it starts to level off. The only exception to the rule is if another new technology comes along that is an even better value proposition. In which case it will die suddenly. Case study? Go look at what happened to desktop PC when laptops came along, and then how tablets stopped the laptop from continuing to expand its market share.
Yeah, that last 20% to 40% will probably take a while, especially as demand and the price for gas falls, making the ICE vehicles cheaper to operate. The poors and stubborn folks may be able to stick with ICE vehicles for quite a long time.
A major portion of the S-curve is exponential. Most countries are currently in the exponential phase of the S-curve.
The problem will be raw material supply, possibly even grid capacity.
Re-locate or reallocate ?
You address the raw materials issue with regard to EV batteries, but that ignores the HUGE need for increased mining that will be required for electricity GENERATION; wind turbines and solar panels are heavily dependent on raw materials, and they require extensive energy inputs to create.
Yeah yeah yeah AND the grid can’t handle the load. You’re talking today, not tomorrow.
Thanks Lars, I look forward to every single video you produce, so full of facts and intrinsic technical aspects. I think that the limited manufacturing ability of Tesla at the moment ( although exceptional in scope ) is saving the ICE industry a complete melt down much sooner. Once the extreme convenience of operating a good EV is well known, and the availability are abundant in the market, it would be very hard for the consumer to find any convenience of purchasing a new ICE or any of its surrogates.
Realize that Tesla makes less than 20 % of all EVs being sold. It is unlikely Tesla will ever have much more than that % of the EV market share, but that market is expanding at about 50 % per year. Elon is / has accomplished his ongoing goal of accelerating the change in vehicle transportation to be sustainable and non polluting. It is amazing that he has pulled this off.
@@terrysullivan1992 Yes and also what seems to go unnoticed is that legacy auto should be extremely worried about the Chinese because they are serious about EVs whereas legacy auto are not and the Chinese are also making rapid progress with EVs.
Sandy Munro(the expert of experts regarding manufacturing) says that hardly any legacy OEM is buying his reports but you know who is buying them? The Chinese!
They are THAT serious about Eve that they accept that Tesla are the leaders and it is Tesla they want to either catch up to(good luck) or more likely emulate as they realise that Tesla are making all the right moves and legacy auto are making all the wrong moves.
MG is owned by the Chinese and their new EV the MG 4 is a compact EV like the VW ID 3 and insignificantly cheaper than the VW but better in many ways and not a bad 2nd attempt by MG.
So if we look at where the Chinese auto industry was 10 years ago compared to today and see where they will probably be by 2030 wee can see a clear indication that the Chinese will be much stronger and dominant than legacy auto.
This should be a clear sign to legacy auto to wake up, start panicking and start moving...fast!
I feel dizzy from going round and round in circles.
_So little to say, so much time to say it in_
Think you could get your hands on a NIO eT7?
The nickel price has shot way up which probably makes it too expensive for some uses and frees it up for EVs
Now I am scared; the utilities are not that fast to give us the energy we need.
for what i learned the last years about tesla and evs is that their only disadvantage for now are batteries, and those improve year after year. Bet against EVs after see what tesla has done (like put EVS on mainstream once for all) is dumb at best.
A big factor is new buyers are more savey, they are waiting for the right EV if they don't want to wait so long, so the new car market is contracting to meet the EV supply. It seems to be more used car buyers repeating the oil industry propaganda on EVs.
I've been saying 2025 for a few years, but Covid has delay it a bit, as well as Tesla overreach on Numbers, but they will get there. My latest revision for the last combustion car sale is 2026. I'm hoping to buy a nice track day car like an Aston Martin as they go out of business for practically nothing.
ROFL but if you are right I’ll get rich
So Tony Seba was right all along.
Legacy car makers will make Hybrids with small batteries and sell them (in the USA with a generous rebate) to people who will never plug them in.
Sadly, you are probably right. If the wiggle room is still present in policy.
I've seen an other similar analysis where the global sales will also drop for few years as people will prefer to wait for more EV availability. I think the ICE will drop faster than the rise of EVs.
with LFP batteries getting better all the time, what evs - other than long range commercial trucks, will still use silver & cobalt in the batteries?
by the way, Lars, the word "ore" is just one syllable. your English pronunciation is amazing! this is intended as constructive criticism to correct a small error. there are actually 3 homophones here: ore, oar & or.
Gm double the 27 , Mazda sales might even be in the hundreds
What's the projected date of the 50% crossover point for 65% growth, and for 70% growth?
2024
i think atleast 2023
Things can happen until 2030,hope for the best 👍 !!!!!
@12:00 _...will it rise, will it fall...?_ The durability of the batteries and of the overall vehicle ( _front, structural battery,_ and _rear castings_ ) will lower the vehicle replacement numbers.
Even if it's only by 10% that is about 9,000,000 vehicles per year. (It is likely to be much higher than that.)
Great video Lars.
I think 🧐, some of the big automakers could merge because of their debts and poor revenue?
Some of them , may apply for chapter 11 ?
In Europe, could be similar scenario 😮?
In human history, the stronger does not survive but
this human who could adopt to changing environment.
Regarding merging. Two turkeys don’t make an eagle.
Also mergers are very expensive so not a good idea for failing companies, the savings (if any) take many years to materialise.
When market share of ev reaches 30%, is the crossing point.
Gas cars will lose economies of scale.
We'll hit that in the next 2 years or less globally as China just hit 28% through q2 total market share of nevs. 22% for ev only market share and the EU has several places also over 20% ev market share already this year.
Even the U.S. when adjusting for per capita has the largest automotive market place is gonna hit 6-8% ev market share by eoy or more.
And the ira bill is gonna ensure we're headed towards 50% ev market share in the next 3-5 year's if not sooner. It's exponential s curve growth rate from here on out. 😎👍🏻
=90% of All legacy ICE automakers will go bankrupt before end of 2030
Very good point... This is not so much about a decline in sales as it is about whether ICE car makers can stay in business. You are 100% correct... Once sales of ICE cars declines by 30%, it will not be economic for them to be manufactured.
What about people who regularly drive long distances? How is a plug-in going to be a viable solution for someone who needs to regularly drive 500 miles or more a day? What about when electricity shortages become so serious that government regulators begin establishing limits on how much electricity someone can use? How will we charge our vehicles then?
What happens in your chart if total car demand goes down? Like in the case of robo-taxis coming online.
I would expect the lines to cross much faster and ICE to collapse completely by 2025 to 2026.
The total sales will drop slowly to a very low level, but it really depends on the price for robo taxi rides and subscription
Robo-taxis have the same problem like all Tesla launches. Ramping up takes a long time. FSD still hasn’t exited beta. And exactly who will buy them? If Tesla is self-financing and entering the market, it enjoys a monopoly. Or a new taxi service or metro will buy them.
Fsd won’t even be approved by then
@@richarddixon6352 Good point! You are probably right.
@@nickmcconnell1291 I don’t want to be right, as a Tesla investor I’m pleased people are so over exuberant. Just remember Elon time. First he shows a prototype the announcement of a 2 year production date and then he’s 3 years late. He’s over exuberant too!
It's nearly impossible to make money on ICE cars even today. The competition is fierce, and the product is very complex, hence expensive to make.
Look at the hundreds and hundreds of moving parts in an ICE drive train! State of the art engineering, super precision manufacturing... hence not cheap! And so many things that can fail. Not a business I would care to be in.
OEMs believe 15% when it is currently 56%, what else can you say. Thanks Lars, very interesting as always.
It’s not pronounce Vale it’s pronounce Val-Ee
18:22 The legacy manufacturers are trying to go through the "pass of Caradhras" but Tesla is taking the "Mines of Moria". Both are fraught with danger, but the mines of Moria are much faster.
Good analogy.
Is Musk Mithrandir?
Who's the Balrog?
@@andrewsaint6581 I was thinking Musk was Aragorn, but you may be right too. The Balrog is whoever is sitting in the oval office (regardless of party). I am open to alternate ideas :)
BESTinTesla - LARS for most that chart is too Confusing.
GRAPH plot should be ICE vehicles and Hybrids (DECLINE) and BEV are Continuing mass Increase.
Can the S curve hold up because of production rates? Batteries and chips must be available for the S curve for total number of cars to succeed. On the other side with higher interest rates the total number of new car purchased may drop drastically and while a lower number of vehicles the EV percentage may grow more rapidly then expected.
"Batteries and chips" ARE available for Tesla and the Chinese makers. Legas never thought about the supply until 2022 ...
I’m sure your listeners are familiar with Tony Seba who a few years ago predicted the rise of EV and the fall of ice cars well before 2030. The S-curve is just beginning to accelerate. It’s hard to imagine how legacy auto makers can be so blind when they have so much to lose.
Lars: Vale pronounced like “ballet”.
I see🤗 good
Another factor not really considered is that EV's will most likely have much longer use lives compared to ICE. Evidence from early Model S and high milage Model 3's show this is likely. This means that the 70 million vehicles sold per year may decrease significantly due to a robust 2nd hand market in EV's. Therefore, legacy automakers will have to fight in a shrinking market. Another steep mountain to climb in flip flops :)
Hybrid is a joke, they are the worse of both world, ICE and BEV. Most hybrid are boring, not fun to drive, sounds terrible, bad handling due to weight, etc. It's the worst intro for customer to experience electric vehicles. They slow down the adoptation of BEV, not helping it.
Yes i think you are right so i will stick to ICE for at least a few more years especially since EVs are more or less as expensive to run here in the UK at the moment because of electricity prices plus they cost about 30% more to buy.
Watch Tesla stock skyrocket after it has been compressed like a coiled spring, when the exponential growth is finally accepted by even the Tesla bears.
It's like iphone vs blackberry!
Anything powered by electricity can fail at any time; how reliable is that.
This cannot be true, Bob Lutz's salary was $150,000 in 2019. That means in today's dollars that now is $188,000 USD.
He said during an interview "Elon, better watch out. The big boys are coming!"
Now, the board at GM wouldn't be paying him $188k / year,,, if he didn't know what he is talking about?
Simple math for those playing along at home.
i know quite a few people who hate EVs so much that they swear on their lives they will NEVER buy one, even if gas is like $20/gallon($5/L), so, there's those people, and they're very vocal on just about every comments section about anything EVs
Great vlog, they should not have laughed at Elon and bet against him 😂🤣🤣🤣😂🤣😂🤣😂🤣😂🤣🤣😂🤣🤣🤣🦍
Lars, I would love to see an in-depth video on why PHEV's are so inferior.
Me too. It would focus on the cost and complexity. unfortunately most hybrids are not being driven for maximum efficiency, they could be sort of OK but it's not happening.
With the cost of a replacement battery for a Tesla being around $23k or more not many will actually wish to buy an EV if they are told the truth about things like this. Since cars already run on hydrogen the ICE vehicles just need to switch the source of where they hydrogen comes from. Now that a company has achieved 98% efficiency on hydrogen production from water fossil fuels don't stand a chance and know there are even better technologies out there to allow ICE vehicles to switch the source where they get their hydrogen from. Now that Africa is starting to Unite the materials that go into making EV's will start to pay their fair share to Africans as they always should have been doing all along. No more freebees.
I understand that it would be odd to need to replace a battery if it lasted through the long warranty period.
Hi Lars Craig here from Western Australia. Joe Bite-Me will Crash the American Economy and so a huge market will disappear. The reason why::) debt and interest rates on that Debt! Also Huge Tax increases as well. Hope it doesn't happen but it will. Thanks for your promotion of Tesla and ATB, TC.
I agree, because imo , there a too few people, especially here in the USA, that are interested in cars and the car market. Those people have no clue what is taking place , that the entire automobile market is slowly and swiftly (!) switching to electric. Most of those people will not reject electric as a few people who comment say they do( “ I will be driving gas vehicles as long as I live, I will never buy an electric vehicle “) , they will just simply buy what’s available and adapt, learn the benefits of owning an electric vehicle, get an electrician to install for home charging, find out about the growing charging infrastructure, and go about their lives. Nothing the current ICE lovers say or do will stop this. Thanks Elon, and thanks Lars!
Used ICE market will be saturated with cheap barely used cars for years. So in that market the shift may take 10 years more, especially in places where most people cannot ever afford a new car.
Extremely cheap new electric cars may cut this trend short, because EVs have the potential to be very significantly cheaper than ICE cars, they are much simpler after all.
Hybrids are worse than ICE cars. You cannot claim hybrids on the electric side of the ledger. Speak to people with hybrids and they are being used as far less efficient ICE cars - not as electric cars. They are made by legacy auto to beat the EU fleet CO2 quota. Tesla has a dilemma. Keep 25% gross margin or attack the bottom 70%(?) of the market. In the UK a basic MY cost more than an E Class Cabriolet.
Are the power companies planning/capable of ramping up fast enough to support this growth?
I wonder when we will see legacy auto buying startups as a means to catchup?
It has already happened, but they bought into the wrong ones. Does Nikola ring a bell ? Legacy auto now have their own internal EV "start up' Divisions and they are ramping up as quickly as supply allows; mostly batteries and chips. One glaring exception is Toyota. They are just beginning to nibble at the EV thing and still seem to think that Hydrogen is a viable path. Wouldn't it be so darn fitting if Tesla decided to open a plant in Japan ? I don't think they will since Tesla can ship all the cars they want to Japan from Shanghai. Might be the balance between tariffs and material supply. Osaka would be perfect.
@@terrysullivan1992 I was meaning that legacy auto buys a startup that is already selling vehicles successfully for the ip of how to build a successful EV and then using the legacy auto's scale to ramp up the production of said EV's. I don't think Nikola counts, GM had previously put EV's in customers hands (EV1) and Nikola hadn't so I don't think that purchase counts as a means to catch up.
Good luck. Everybody believes in and wants an EV except the buyer.
I'm a buyer and love them. will never go back to poison based fuel
@@girowinters same here. Not so much for the environment, but everything else that comes from owning an ev . Tesla owner here to be clear. The tech is so good it's hard to ignore. I bought mine because for me to get the same performance I would have to pay more, and that's not even talking about maintenance. The environment being saved along the way is a good bonus. 👍
How big will the collector and ICE sports market be long-term? The collapse of ICE fuel and service will make the used car market crash and that is super depreciation. ICE cars are risky to buy now in my opinion. No wonder the EV demand.