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I have had a Tesla Model S for 7 years that came with free supercharging for life. I have been charging it on the supercharger network almost exclusively (it's free so why wouldn't I) and my battery after 70,000 miles is down by about 5%. Fantastic.
Why you wouldn't is the time and trouble it would take to always go to the supercharger, unless you have one next door to your house or something. I have the same Tesla, with lifetime free supercharging, and I've only supercharged it a handful of times. I gotta say, when I do use it, it is convenient as hell, and quick too.
@@alastair440 One more year of warranty and when the battery suddenly is done the car is toast. In the future, if batteries become cheap, sure. But then you need to pay a mechanic to do the job. If the car is worth 5k and the cost for the mechanic is 1k is it worth it? With battery swap these issues are avoided. And you swap in a charged battery in 3 minutes. A guy driving Uber ended his Tesla battery in 12 months by always fast charging it.
I wouldn’t know how long my S battery would last because, as the denialists say, it’s caught fire three times a week for the four years I’ve had the car
Since the 1990s, the energy density of lithium-ion batteries has increased from 80 Wh/kg to around 300 Wh/kg. The highest reported energy density for a full cell is 711 Wh/kg. In 2008, the volumetric energy density of lithium-ion batteries was 55 watt-hours per liter, but by 2020 it had increased to 450 watt-hours per liter. Imagine what it's going to be like in a decade's time.
I think the idea is that being lighter, the vehicle will have less rolling resistance, and require less energy to accelerate, thus being more efficient. Less weight will mean smaller tyres, which also improves aerodynamics. I'm not sure about this because at higher speeds it's aerodynamics that play a more important role in efficiency, and I don't see aerodynamics improving that much.
I think if battery density increases the battery kwh will remain the same or increase. In the USA people buy the biggest car they can find. Bigger cars need more battery capacity to keep the range or increase it. The Ford F150 is the second largest selling vehicle here. Typical Suvs are taller than mini vans. @@ThisRandomUsername
@@ThisRandomUsernameless weight does help with increasing range but it’s not as much as many think. If a model 3 battery energy density improves by 20%, you’d probably save 200 lbs. that’s about the same as adding an adult to your car on a road trip. The range doesn’t change much at all. Your tire comment is important though and narrower tires would also improve range. If you reduce the battery weight by 200 lbs, would that be enough to reduce tire width? Maybe 10mm? So in total maybe your range is 3-5% better with a 200 lb weight reduction that uses narrower tires? I’ll take it but it’s not a huge number. What I’m more excited about is the impact on handling, ride and acceleration from reduced weight. If current energy density improvements continue, we could see a 50% improvement in the next five years. Imagine taking 350 pounds out of a Tesla model 3? It would probably weigh less than a comparable ice car! Not to mention the acceleration, range in handling will be noticeably better. Very cool stuff!
In over 50 years of car ownership I've never owned one where the body outlasted the engine. It should be interesting to see how well EVs hold-up to road salt - especially the Chinese cars.
I live in Southern Ontario and what you say USED to be true, but not so much anymore. My old beaters used to be more bondo than metal - and a 1970's Ford would rust as soon as you drove it off the lot. Now, my last car I'm driving until it drops since the price of used EVs hasn't reached sanity yet where I live (and I'm certainly NOT buying a non-EV NOW). My 2011 Ford has 125K miles and no rust and the engine seems excellent. The transmission - I pray it will hold together, it's the infamous 6-speed. If it dies I will likely buy a used Leaf, since a used BOLT costs about the same as a new one (if you can FIND ONE).
It really depends on the brand. I recently watched a video of a full disassembly of the Lixiang L9, and I must say, the thickness of the metal used is comparable to that of Rolls Royce, but at a fraction of the price.
There’s always going to be a second hand parts market, there’s someone near me selling almost new Tesla batteries for $6k for the complete assembly. As a mechanic I’ve done hundreds of engine repairs that are close to that or exceed that cost tremendously.
why are engine repairs expensive? If consumers actually bought things on the basis of how expensive maintaining it will be, would it be possible for engine repairs to be made a lot cheaper than they are today by support from the manufacturer? I feel like there may be social reasons that doesn't happen, and these also seem likely to apply to EV battery replacement costs?
The industry is moving to batteries that will outlast the car body. Million mile batteries. When the car body is trash the batteries will be removed and sold for energy storage, making the scrap value of EVs much higher than ICEVs. Any needed battery pack replacements should be very rare, due to some sort of manufacturing flaw. EV makers would be wise to give very lengthy battery pack warranties, folding that small cost into the price of their EVs.
@@bobwallace9753 Ah, so the social difference is thus: In the ICE world, the vehicle would always need repairs and no manufacturer is equipped to provide those themselves, so first-party guarantees couldn't easily be provided, and so there was never a way to put the burden of maintenance onto the manufacturer, and so they didn't build them to be maintainable. While in the EV world, it's much easier to provide a guarantee of reliability in the first place, and in the second place, battery replacements can be made much simpler than engine repairs, so manufacturers probably *can* take on that burden and probably will and maintainability will be prioritised a lot more by the manufacturer.
@@spaceprior With ICEVs the model has been for dealers to sell cars for not much profit, then make serious money on repairs and parts sales. The manufacturer covers the cost of repairs for a limited time (36 months, 30,000 miles). After that the owner is on the hook for repair costs. With EVs we should see few, if any, problems with battery packs, electric motors, and electronics. That profit center for dealers will disappear. If EV manufacturers want to expand their addressable market they can offer high mileage battery warranties (300k to 1M miles) which will reassure potential buyers of no battery costs over the life of the vehicle. Use LFP batteries and there will be no battery fire issues. Give access to the Tesla Supercharger system and there will be no range anxiety issues.
@@bobwallace9753 1. "When the car body is trash the batteries will be removed and sold for energy storage, making the scrap value of EVs much higher than ICEVs." - Someone will have to pay for recycling. Now the costs of it are hidden, but we know that it's a problem, and you won't be able forever, to ship it to Poland or Africa, throw it on a pile, and set it on fire when it becomes visible from Cosmos, so the local government deals with the environmental disaster. 2. "With ICEVs the model has been for dealers to sell cars for not much profit, then make serious money on repairs and parts sales. The manufacturer covers the cost of repairs for a limited time (36 months, 30,000 miles). After that the owner is on the hook for repair costs." - What do you think will the EV makers do, when they don't have to fight for the market share anymore???
7 years ago a 100 amp hour LifPo4 battery sold for an average of $ 1,000 to $ 1,200. dollars. That same battery today can be purchased for under $ 300, dollars with many brands selling at or under $ 250. dollars... for the same 100 amp hour battery.
Another issue is EV battery packs can be reconditioned for far less than full replacement. What's going on is a battery pack can only be charged and discharged to the level of the weakest battery cells. So reconditioning involves removing these weak cells and replacing these cells with cells matched to the good cells in the pack. Cost being about 1/2 to 1/3 of a full new pack. Usually the reconditioned pack being good for another 200k miles.
Quite often the burn out the fuses to the bad cell and the pack is good to go. Not sure about direct replacement though. I remember reading something about the replacement cell has to be very very close to the rest of the pack in voltage and a couple of other things as well. Been a while since I looked into it.
@@rustybucket2248 You can't replace Tesla cells because the space between cells is filled with that nasty expanding plastic foam. I mean, you CAN, but it would take forever to clean up that mess... so they generally replace the battery sections that have the bad cells.
This is how a EV battery recondition is done. Watch the video and you can do it yourself if you don't mind a little 400dc volt risk. th-cam.com/video/0HWnRSYCvNI/w-d-xo.htmlsi=Ig55x_fb11kzt9Sh
I would have thought that with the Chinese releasing 1-3 million km batteries that in reality batteries will soon be guaranteed way beyond the useful economic life of the rest of the vehicle and that these batteries would potentially have a second life as residential/commercial storage.
Guarantees are against the manufacturing or design defects but there are also other cases like some fairly minor accidents or some misuse that wont be covered by the guarantees but still require battery replacement. There are lots of people that are afraid of battery replacement cost and this would address their concerns and would make second hand EVs more interesting for them. For example car buyers that are buying cheaper and older cars and don't want to pay higher premiums for the comprehensive coverage might not be very interested about buying car that could bring them battery swap bill that equals value of the car.
@@Acemeistre No rust. No short drives only long slow stretches on dry dusty roads. AZ cars can last 40-60 years easily. The same car in the rust belt or in Norway, Germany, UK may last 10 years tops. The same goes for Utah - but they drive faster. Also Southern California but they have more salt in the air. New Mexico, East Texas, South Kansas. Everywhere there are dry long roads without sea salt or other contaminants.
Both lithium and cobalt are rarely occurring elements. I can see the countries where cobalt and lithium do exist forming a cartel to raise the price of both these commodities. Another factor is the tendency of lithium batteries to explode. In the UK at present there is a campaign to prevent e-bike/scooters from exploding, do not charge the vehicle indoors and near to your escape route is the message. Alternatively, sodium might be a better solution to batteries, what about capacitors as a storage method. There have recently been advances in this technology. Needless to say petrol will put up a fight. Just because electric is the best does not mean that it will triumph I.e. betamax v VHS. Love your stuff.
Having over capacity in battery productioon for the next several years will be a great boost to energy storage systems. Solar, wind, and batteries (SWB) is already cheapest form of electricity -- as batteries decrease in price/increase in availability, SWB will usher in super-abundant power. Combustion is dead.
SWB is NOT the the cheapest form of electricity production. Batteries cost similar to a gas turbine peaking plant in the US (with the cheapest gas costs in the developed world). And batteries can only last a few hours, whereas peaking plants can output indefinitely. Solar and wind are sometime cheaper on a LCOE basis, but NOT on a LACE basis. If you don't understand those terms, you don't understand electrical grid production.
@@dzcav3 According to current research, the statement "SWB is NOT the cheapest form of electricity production" is incorrect; most experts agree that a system combining solar, wind, and batteries (SWB) is currently considered one of the most cost-effective ways to generate electricity, often even cheaper than traditional power plants in many regions, making it a leading contender for the cheapest option.
Don't know why you would spend $5k on the Cruze as its value can't be that much. If you are in Colorado you should take advantage of their state rebates and the federal rebate before they go away. We have had 3 Leafs and they were fantastic cars for the money. But they are not road trip cars. They fast charge very slowly. Good luck on whatever you do.
Might be a while yet for Tesla. However, there are now at least 3 new non-OEM options for the Nissan Leaf using CATL cells. Two from China and one from New Zealand. I see this trend continuing soon for Kia, Hyundai and Chevy.
My wife and I were early EV adopters and still love our 8 year old Nissan Leaf. The battery has degraded, but it's still a perfect city car. We'll look at putting in a new active cooled battery in a couple of years. Great to hear prices are coming down. We'd love to keep our Leaf for another 10 years.
I looked up the cost of replacing various combustion related parts incl labor: spark plugs $600, transmission $3500 (and much more for luxury cars), engine $3000-8000.
In Finland replacing an engine in an old car cost around 3,000-6,000 euros. Replacing a battery cost 10,000-60,000 euros....But maybe in some day we can get new battery for 5000 euros.
Yeah a Jaguar Ipace and Porsche Taycan battery replacement is approx 40-45k. You must have a mental problem if you buy them second hand / out of warranty. But otherwise get one now that has 4 years of battery warranty left (not the mentioned cars) and you probably will pay significantly less than today for replacement in the future. A LR model 3 battery from 2019 should do 400k km easily. Not sure if you can cope with the interior quality and road noise for 400k km though.
The industry is moving to very high cycle life batteries. Replacing a battery pack is likely to become extremely rare. The only reason would be due to a manufacturing error and that should show up quickly while the car was still in warranty.
With the IQ and education of the average American, most household appliances are indistinguishable from magic. Seriously, think about how many people haven't the foggiest notion how most of the things in their house work.
That's the amazing compression ignition engine. You can magically put diesel fuel in it, vegetable oil, paint thinners, and magically it can still run. Compression ignition is the most versatile source of motive power
(6:19 - it's the reverse - we will want BIGGER not smaller kWh) As density and cost improves the kWh size of batteries will INCREASE, not decrease. More kWh = more energy = more range and it will be affordable .
Do we??? I honestly see abs 6:21 olutely no need for an EV to have more than 350 to 400 miles of range. As energy densities go up Batteries GET LIGHTER. Lighter vehicles get better range. This means doubling the energy density of a 77 Kwh battery would give you 50 to 80 miles more range. So a cheaper more dense 77 Kwh battery equals a 350 or more mile range vehicle.
@@johnlodge8546 Ofc I get that. However, in the video the electric viking claims the batteries will be smaller in capacity (the way I interpret it). I don't think that is the future, but maybe I am wrong.
There will be very few legacy automakers that will want to have anything to do with offering extremely inexpensive autos. They are large margin driven as we have all experienced...
And that is fast becoming a failed business model, high cost, high price. Only Mercedes, Ferrari, and the like will survive with high cost/high margin. It's a new world, or will be.
The legacy automakers are dying as we speak. Ford, Renault, WV, Audi Mercedes etc are all on the brink of extinction. They resisted with all their might but was beat by the chinese in the end. Same will happen to the chinese as well in time unless they roll with the times. Perhaps when Africa or Latin America emerges, who knows.
@@TheTuxmania I can't see major car manufacturers emerging from Africa or South/Central America. More likely, Chinese companies will continue to move into those areas and build plants. China, at the moment, has too many EV makers, a large number will likely go out of business. But my money is on China to dominate EV production. Tesla is likely to morph into a robotaxi company that builds its own taxis.
EV batteries are hundreds of the same part wired together and if properly designed can be almost totally put together automatically and when exhausted can be fully recycled recovering all the minerals and metals. Look at any ICE engine strip down video and you see why they are finished.
But to recycle them efficiently you need to get them out. That cannot be done manually on a billion cars. That is why battery swap is the future. E.g. NIO, Onvo, Firefly.
The USA and the EU have enough recycling capacity plants - on paper and in planning. They haven´t built them yet. One of the big players with big government spending and subsidies payed out/ a lot of factories on paper was Northvolt. Northvolt is bancrupt. In theory recycling is "easy". What does it cost in real life? Unfortunately I foresee a very near future where EVs will be dumped in Africa by all nature-loving western countries - while the big player China will be the one to make the first move.
Yeah if sodium batteries are eventually as weight efficient as lithium ones are now wow hope you have a vehicle that allows easy access to battery compartment🤯
You would still have to either change or re-program the BMS (and possibly car's body-computor) because the cells will have different voltages and current capacities.
I always thought this would be the case. The issue is, say you have a Tesla M3 your battery at some point needs replacing and the cost of the battery is low. Will companies like Tesla support swapping this out for a new battery that is cheaper and offers more range or do they want to be selling a new car.
To me, this is not speculation but merely an affirmation of the reality. If you consider how much labour there is to remove and overhaul and engine -- not to mention have all the parts shipped to the garage where it is done -- it makes total sense. Modern car engines are very complex and something as "simple" as a ring or valve job requires a lot of dissasembly and re-assembly. This is why it is often cheaper to replace an entire engine with a second-hand one. Structural battery packs can be replaced from the bottom (see Sandy Munro) and they will not be disassembled in the the shop. With improved design, they are much less likely to need replacement at the same number of service kms than an ICE engine. Solid state batteries promise even more, in this respect.
Does not make economic sense. There's the extra cost of batteries plus swapping stations. With DC charging times dropping lower and lower, battery swapping would save little time. And as we see more DC chargers at places like fast food restaurants and grocery stores people will be able to plug in and charge without losing any time.
Do you think the grid can support 1 billion electric cars all fast charging 😅🤣 Nio has the solution for supporting the grid with there battery packs and also earn money with it , charge them when its the cheapest and in dense cities you dont even have opportunity to charge your car it something isnt even allowed when you live in a appartment with a garage. What do you think when nio drive itself @ night in the future to a swap station so your car is full when you leave in the morning ? Alot a brands in China already joined nio's swapping station and will implement it its just a matter of time. Also your car isnt worthless when your battery is done like Seba told its all what nio does 😅. Keep being blind and let this company expend untill all people realise.
@@bobwallace9753that's not true because charging a car from 5-100 procent takes atleast 45 minuts if your lucky also fast charging degradates your battery faster then with normal charging wich makes totally sense to use battery swap also your car isnt worthless when your battery dies because its swappable 😅 they also guarantee that your battery is always approx above 88% capacity. My groceries get delivered at home and i maybe eat fast food once in months.
It is not the cost of the battery - it is the cost of work that is the issue - unless your car has SWAP. That is, a NIO or Onvo or Firefly that can swap battery in under 3 minutes.
When working on an ICE labour is free? 1 difference is that there are far fewer parts that need to be disconnected and reconnected with a battery pack.
Well battery swap is an advantage in that case for your likely one time repair. Tesla labor rate is currently $100/ hr and takes about 10 hrs give or take. Even at $150/hr it’s does not exceed the projected $3000 or so for the pack alone. In 10 years charging speeds will likely make swap even less important. I prefer the safety of a true structural battery pack that takes 10 hours or so to replace rather than a snap together vehicle. With home charging overnight time is generally not an issue for daily driving. Road trips driving 2-3 hours at a whack and stopping for a 10-30 minute fast charge is not a big deal either. I can’t imagine swap stations being as ubiquitous as Tesla superchargers.
@@Yippydog There are no benefits with integrating the battery in the chassis. The benefits of swap are many. Swap saves you charging time (and in comparison) fast charging kills the battery. When the battery is done, you can change it without taking the car apart. If your car is worth 5k the work to swap a Tesla battery is 1k, i.e. 20% of the value. With an EV with swap, you just go and swap. Read - the economic life of the car becomes much longer. Swap stations allow service to the batteries, slow charging overnight of many batteries - so people without a home charger (most people live in apartments) can power their cars. Swap stations balance the grid, buy power at night, sell power during peak hours at profit. Imagine a fleet of Taxis, they need to operate 24/7 to be the most efficient. And fast charging kills them + kills the grid. You can sell the car with a tiny 80 kwh battery and user swap in huge battery when going on vacation - saves weight, power, resources. There is no reason not to buy an EV without swap.
I wouldn’t bee surprised if solid state beings shipping in EV’s in 3 years time, initially expensive ones, but it will filter down. By 10 years time I think that sort of range/weight will be common.
@ yes I do as a pensioner I have my hobby weekends away Wales, Bradford etc and the convenience for me is doing the journey in one hit, stopping for a toilet break and a takeaway coffee and getting the journey done, then I can relax when I get to the hotel and not worry about mileage left in the car because I can gat back home on one tank of fuel in my auto. I understand that’s not everyone but it really suits my lifestyle at my age.
@@johngoff8923 If you stop for a pee and a coffee, you will have stopped long enough to charge from 20% to 80%. Do a little thinking. I'm assuming you can plug in at home, which means zero stops for fuel throughout your year. And very large cost savings by using electricity rather than fuel. If, in fact, driving an EV on your hobby weekends added ten or fifteen minutes to your travel time wouldn't it be worth it to save all that other refueling time and cost?
I think if you need an engine replacement for mid sized ICE from the Volkswagen Group, your 100kWh battery pack costing $56 per kWh is now already cheaper ($5600). Off course it’s not the price end consumers wil pay at this moment. Total Tesla battery replacement seems around €15000 at this moment (Netherlands). From what I understand most of the time it’s not necessary to replace the entire battery but just one defective module or battery management system (BMS). Tesla will replace the entire battery, but specialized companies only replace the defective module for €1000 - €2000. A total replacement will be necessary in case of bottom damage.
Have you seen how Munro extract a battery in structural packs? Forget cell replacements! And structural packs won't be a breeze either. If the pack is cheap, it will still be worth it.
There’s also the battery management system and chargers balancing unit, SRS pyrotechnic fuse and the case price to consider when costing a EV battery, not just the KWh to dollar amount. But still if that adds another $1500-2000 it’s still not bad if it lasts 10-15 years.
This is why everyone should not be afraid of getting an EV from a company you know will be around in the future. Drive your EV for well over 250K (assuming you take care of all the other parts of the car) or more. This will take most people 15-20 years. Then if you need another battery pack it will be cheap. You may also get a ton more range by then too as the energy density of standard batteries will have gotten much better. So you may have the option of getting a higher KWhr pack in the same size pack OR one that is similar in power to the old one but much lighter this also giving you more range. Who knows, with care, parts replacement, etc your EV may be the last car you will ever buy new.
It might be on the sooner side if we can avoid the massive recession economists expect. What GS left out was the 16 hours of labor to replace that engine. $3500 is just the parts. Add to this the recycle/reuse value of the battery pack and price parity is around the corner. The bottleneck will be finding a shop that can do the work. That side still needs to scale in most of the country.
Lead Acid car batteries don't seem to be shorting and exploding when cars get flooded now. I don't see how it would be much different with lithium ones.
I do love Seba and RethinkX, and they've inspired many of my own projections. Just to be clear, the study by Recurrent didn’t say 'fix' but 'replace,' so while some engine fixes might cost under 2k, replacing an engine would start around the 5k mark today.
Battery fixing instead of replacing is also becoming mainstream. 'Auto trader' TH-cam channel did video about a place where they fix the battery instead of replacing it all.
Current ev battery cost are in two area : changing cost is huge still bigger than fuel engine but its trend is going to be cheaper; the other cost is the industry has not have comprehensive chain for recycling and processing used high power car battery yet. Making these batteries and recycling these batteries cause more pollution than transitional engines still . Pollution on the road is less but its overall pollution on factory and processing sites are still high. We have a long way to go. Hopefully in 10-20 years the situation will will be much better.
The cost to replace my Mazda CX5 diesel was $26k … fortunately Mazda paid for it even though it was out of warranty… but yeah battery replacement is likely to be cheaper
The only major impact energy density has on range is weight. I am not sure that energy density increases in a few years will result in drastic reductions in the kWh of battery packs.
Auto manufacturers will continue to offer warranties so the replacement price might be for the third or fourth owner. Resale shouldn’t drop too much because replacing a battery pack won’t mean as much as it does now.
While the cost of EV battery parts has decreased significantly over the years, labor costs for battery replacement remain substantial. This is because many EV designs position the battery pack beneath the vehicle, requiring complex procedures to access and replace them. Although some manufacturers are exploring solutions like battery swapping to improve accessibility, these innovations are not yet widespread across the industry. My hot take is that the parts price will continue to drop (per your reporting, thanks for this), but the labor price will likely increase as manufacturers haven't standardized efforts to make batteries accessible for servicing. There is no hood or battery tray for ease of access.
Batteries are a perfect example of economies of scale in production. If you wanted to manufacture just one, it would cost millions, maybe hundreds of millions of dollars. But if you want to produce a hundred million, it won’t cost much more than making just one. The manufacturing complexity is lost in the scale of identical units. (For a comparison, imagine what a bespoke smartphone would cost, and look at what they cost when we make a hundred million of them.) So it makes sense that, as manufacturing experience grows, cost of manufacturing will approach the cost of the raw materials alone.
With batteries, it's all about the price of materials. There was a shortage of lithium which made battery prices high. Along with the high cost of cobalt. As EVs move to LFP batteries and lithium production has greatly increased material costs have plummeted.
@ There’s this myth that lithium is rare. It isn’t. But the mining facilities are still coming online in response to demand. And with exponential demand coming, there’s a LOT of motivation to get supply in the pipeline.
Sam - have you ever given it a thought where all the extra cupper that goes into an EV is going to come from ?? There are mountain ranges of money being poured into battery technology but almost nothing invested into new cupper mines ! The dream of all transportation being by bev's tomorrow is going to hit some bumps !
Hi Sam. Hope you are well. Looking forward to Electric Everything show in Sydney in 2025 Are you posting free tickets on your page for this event Tc and keep up the good work Alex
You are right the price of cells will plumet. New technology is always expensive, for example I can remember walking into JB-HiFi around 2005, there was a new plasma flat screen for $55,000, today I can buy a much better TV today for around $500. The IBM XT was $10,000, plus $7,000 for a 5Mb hard card (hard drive). Retail prices for technology always trend down at a rapid rate (except for Apple of course). So yes, your cost estimations are close. However, there are problems. In the early EV days, it was possible to remove the battery pack and replace a single defective cell. With the current Li-po battery packs this is both dangerous and or impossible. In some cases, the battery pack is built into the floor pan and physically can't be removed. Sodium batteries look like they are the future, however again the issue is they are going to be cheaper than lithium, however the energy density of the cell will be less than a lithium cell. This will be easily fixed by increasing the size of the battery pack, however, will decrease range due to an increase of weight of the vehicle. The energy density of LiPo cell technology hit a wall years ago, it has not increased hence the search for new battery chemistry. The real-world performance of a sodium battery pack is still unknown as the honesty of the media when it comes to EV's is abysmal. As for the ICE, it will be around for the foreseeable future. The EV has it's uses but also has its limitations. Electric boats, ships, trains, trucks, jets, aircraft, heavy machinery are not going to happen anytime soon. For anyone who drives long distances, tows, off roads or drives in weather extremes the EV is not an option. The other problem is cost, in Australia, the cost of electricity has sky-rocketed, and will continue to increase. Another issue with the EV is depreciation, with the rapid drop in new prices, trading in second-hand EVs also takes a hit.
In future you can buy a battery with small battery. The battery unit will contain a larger battery. You will be able to purchase the larger battery from company. Program code into car to access the larger battery capacity. Most cars will come with a standard size battery container. Easy replaced. Sealed for life, possible the property of the car manufacturer
Viking I'm a big fan!! But neither you nor the article mentions the value of the used batteries for the secondary market or the value of the minerals. I have a 2022 Model Y and by the time I need a new battery it will get swapped out in exchange for free for my current nickel battery! Can an ICE engine make that claim?
One of the main problem still facing EVs these days is the charging infrastructure... even an EV bull like me will admit that much! Setting up a V3 Supercharger costs Tesla around $25-40'000, everything included. This supercharger can service, at a busy time, an average of 3 vehicles per hour. The investment necessary to have 1 vehicle/hour charging capacity, in the present case the critical parameter, is of the order of $10-15'000. Setting up a battery swap station is said to cost around $420k PLUS the cost of leasing or buying the substantial plot of land it requires. That does NOT even include the immobilized value of the batteries that the station must have charging, or in reserve (I'll come back later on that), which is easily several hundred thousand dollars worth of batteries. Such a station, at a busy time, can swap around 10 batteries per hour. Therefore, the investment per vehicle/hour charging capacity is likely to be in excess of $60'000... roughly 5 TIMES higher than that of a supercharger! Furthermore, that station has lots of technology and moving parts. Maintaining it is therefore much more critical and costly than maintaining an equivalent charging capacity in superchargers (about 3 units, maybe 4). A battery swap will hence be more expensive to the customer than a direct DC fast charge! AND will make swapping stations rare and far between! In Europe each additional swap above the monthly subscription (which includes 4 swaps) is €30. I don't know how much it is if you have no subscription, but it is sure to be higher! A typical charge of my Model 3's battery at a Supercharger costs me €15-20! But the issues discussed above pale against the one of battery standardization. For the time being, just about EVERY electric car has a battery different from that of other models. Quite often, the same car model can be equipped by totally different types of batteries depending on where and when it was manufactured. But you need to standardize more than the battery itself, you also need to standardize the battery cooling system, as well as the sensor suite, and battery management system! Finally, battery swapping prohibits the possibility to make the battery structural, resulting in a considerably heavier vehicle! Such a standardization is extremely difficult to achieve within the models of a single brand, but completely impossible across brands! Therefore, a battery swapping station can serve ONLY the few, very few models it was designed for, and has batteries in store for (back to the initial point on the necessary storage of batteries). A DC fast-charger can technically service ANY EV (an adapter may occasionally be needed... but nothing worse than that). There are at least a half-dozen other points that make battery swapping a losing idea... and very very few advantages. Battery swapping is DEFINITELY not the future. Renault has tried it with its partner called Better Place (which went bankrupt due to too heavy investment requirements... my first point), as well as Tesla (the battery of the Model S... at least of the early models, CAN be swapped), who tried the idea, but very quickly abandoned it. Final note: you may rightfully ask: if battery-swapping is really that bad, why has Nio and a couple other Chinese manufactures gone with it? Are they totally dumb? No, probably they aren't. There may be a case for battery swapping in large Chinese cities. That much, I don't know. But there is NO case for it, neither in Europe nor in North America!
@st-ex8506 You must be (economically) able to swap out a faulty battery. That is the elephant in the room that you missed. NIO swap tech becomes the standard. In cities they may swap instead of charging. The same along highways. A lot of market actors are interested in building swap stations and chargers for various reasons. In the future, robots and swap stations will be able to handle both different batteries and car dimensions. The reason Firefly will get another swap station moden is because the car is to narrow for the other stations. Weight and resources - with swap you can drive with a small light battery and swap in a huge battery when going on vacation. That saves weight, power and resources. Soon there will be laws in Europe saying that cars need to be able to swap out their battery. Such a law regarding consumer electronics is already in place. What do you think the environmental groups will push for - integrating the battery in the chassis so you need to scrap the car as soon as something happens to the battery + making it a mess to recycle?
@st-ex8506 Superchargers kill the batteries. Uberdriver killed his Tesla battery in 12 months. With swap you do not have that issue and you save time. EVs without swap is a stupid solution. You need to be able to get the battery out cheaply and if you can also get the option to have a fully charged battery in 3 minutes - bingo. It is not rocket science to understand.
BTW, just a heads-up: I've seen you call the learning curve trend "Moore's law" it's actually called "the learning curve" or "Wright's Law", anyway, just a clarification, carry on!
Unfortunately, the current design with battery as frame seems to prevent this kind of repair. They need to design them so at least 20% of the batteries can be easily replaced and then work up some circuitry that uses those batteries first ( but doesn't take them below 15% unless the entire battery is running low).
In an EV with battery swap option (e.g. NIO) your battery will never fail - i.e. the battery will never force you to scrap the car - as with a Tesla. Integrating the battery in the chassis, like e.g. Tesla is a stupid solution.
@ISuperTed Show me a battery that has lasted 16 years of use. And 16 years is only the average. Quality cars last much longer. One dude driving Uber killed his Tesla battery in 12 months. You want an EV with battery swap. I have a Land Rover Defender that is 40 years old. The EU has passed a law making battery swap mandatory for consumer electronics. We are not moving towards less resource efficiency..
I think this is absolutely obvious. Batteries are essentially tech that follow a cost curve which is dropping like a stone already. On top of this at some point it will be robot arms replacing batteries in the same way they do in the factory itself. So you've dropped your labour cost completely. But you don't need this disruption in labour to To see that cost curve decline of the battery itself is already dropping precipitously
I don’t understand why you would want a smaller kWh battery back just because energy density has gone up? If anything you would have a bigger kWh pack as you fit more in the same space in your vehicle and it would also be cheaper per kWh. Am I missing something?
Because for many people the range is already ok.. and a smaller lighter pack means reduced rolling resistance, more space for cargo, better handling, faster acceleration, reduce tyre wear, lower price
It would seem obvious EV car manufacturers will need to change how batteries are accessed. Changing a battery will need to be quick & easy. I still ask the question. Where are we going to get the electricity from to charge all these EV‘s. Here in the United States we are not creating additional electrical output is actually the opposite.
24GW factory in North Carolina: Natron Energy’s batteries are the only UL-listed sodium-ion batteries on the market today, and will be delivered to a wide range of customer end markets in the industrial power space, including data centers, mobility, EV fast charging, microgrids, and telecom, among others.
This may be the Timex story all over again. Do you remember when the Silica timer in watches made them amazingly accurate and amazingly cheap, that a Timex watch with this innovation was cheaper and cheaper until it wasn't worth while for a store to sell them. There wasn't enough profit in carrying Timex to make it worthwhile. I have read recently about LiFePO4 batteries that are coming in at around $100US per kWh and yet I just had a quote to install a battery to compliment my solar panels for 19 times that cost. At some point, the actual price of the battery is not relevant.
I suspect that replacement battery will cost you more than the one that came in your car. Same is true for any replacement unitsuch as printer cartridges...
Sam, my friend already performed a detailed price calculation of the material cost per 1 kWh of LFP battery cells. Guess the amount of USD? It's a little bit lower than 15 USD!!!!!!! So, when battery manufacturers pay debts, the LFP cells will cost 20 USD/kWh and they will still be making big money because of the scale. The complete battery for home storage will be around 30 USD/kWh very soon. A complete LFP EV battery with thermal management will still be below 50 USD/kWh. This will happen before 2030!
Labour costs on a battery replacement will be LOTS cheaper. Hiw much electrics, plumbing abd mechanical linkages are there to an engine. Vs main powerlines, comms harness and a cooling loop to a battery. They were designing them to go to battery swap facilities in 90 seconds at one point. Fully automated. Vs a couple of days at least in the shop for an emgine. My kast major failure was a valve and head replacement... so engine left in situ, and that was ~ £800 for parts and £1900 labour.
I was just about to say this makes CATL a questionable investment, as it would compress margins hugely, but then again, it the volumes of batteries that are purchased will rise exponentially.
*Tony Seba* got it right. Battery prices are dropping even as their cycle lives improve. Not only that but as battery recycling catches up, replacing a vehicle's battery pack will be a few minutes' long operation.
Not if they are structural packs. &/or not if the access is through the cabin with all those seats. Doable but not a breeze. But then look at the enthusiasts who polish inlet ports so the can comb their hair in them - it will become a hobby!
Efficiency of EV's like Tesla's aren't likely to change drastically in the future so you'll still want a 75kw to 100kw pack. Battery energy density will make the packs smaller and lighter but you'll still need the same amount of overall power. Those smaller and lighter packs will be the primary source of future EV's being more efficient than current day EV's. But it won't be such a large increase that you'll want a 50kw pack.
Car battery packs can't be measured in kw/h for there physical size. The kw/h will go up as the physical size goes down. Cars will not have 50kw/h packs because of energy density, they will have more, maybe 150 kw/h but in a size that is smaller than current 75kw/h packs.
So for ~4K plus labor i could replace the battery pack in my model Y. And still have the original battery pack, potentially wire it up to use it as a backup power (or off-grid power) for my house? Sweet.
Such good news for storage of grid electricity. Combined with solar, tidal, wind, hydro and geothermal, we will not need expensive, damaging coal, gas or nuclear! Hooray!!
Nissan Leaf 40kWh 11.500 Euros. Inverter etc. about 5000,-- Total cost for 30 kWh net capacity 16.500,-- Tesla powerwall 13,5kWh 7320,-- 27 kWh roughly 16.500,-- incl. Gateway I guess Tesla is still cheaper.
@@wolfgangpreier9160 l meant the general price of the battery’s to produce initially , which would be roughly around 700 dollars , then you’ve got the hardware etc on top of that ( powerwalls here are around $13400 )
Absolutely. You can buy a 28.6 kwh(14.3x2) eg4 battery for 7k and an 18k pv inverter for 5k. Add an additional 1k for install and you can install a 28kwh system for less than 13k.
@@KenSiebring According to many Websites Tesla Powerwall costs 9.300,-- US$ Minus incentives - i did not count incentives because they are locally very different. If you add the installer cost then both - Nissan Leaf and Tesla power wall cost about 1500,-- - 2.500,-- more. Not 4000,-- that is too much.
As EV battery energy density increases the number of battery cell in a battery pack will decrease while the total energy remain the same. For example for a 100 Kwh battery pack, a 50% increase in energy density will half the number of battery cell. In such a scenario the weight of EV vehicle will decrease substantially as well as vehicle material cost.
Sam, I think there's a misunderstanding here. If you're saying that higher energy density battery chemistries will lead to lower kWh in the car (you mention the example of 400Wh/kg leading to maybe max 50kWh batteries). I believe that is not correct. The argument would be: you'll get more range out of the same weight of battery OR your battery weight will be lower for the same amount of range. Also, this might not even affect batteries' physical size either since the gravimetric energy density doesn't tell you about the volumetric energy density. So based on this, I doubt cars will get lower average energy capacity batteries in future, rather the contrary: the average battery capacity will likely increase (from maybe 58kWh->70kWh) while battery weight remains similar. Unless for badget EV options, of course, in the case of which we'd still have maybe 50kWh capacity but since that will be lower weight, your car will still go further than present day 50kWh batteries. So also an improvement. I've heard you say this several times now in the last months and thus wanted to finally point that out.
you are confusing the production cost with end user price. looking at the spare parts prices today and price for installing it will be cost price X 3. No reason to think batteries will get smaller with falling price and weigth, more the oppesite if they can offer +500 miles range at not much higher price.
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I have had a Tesla Model S for 7 years that came with free supercharging for life. I have been charging it on the supercharger network almost exclusively (it's free so why wouldn't I) and my battery after 70,000 miles is down by about 5%. Fantastic.
Why you wouldn't is the time and trouble it would take to always go to the supercharger, unless you have one next door to your house or something. I have the same Tesla, with lifetime free supercharging, and I've only supercharged it a handful of times. I gotta say, when I do use it, it is convenient as hell, and quick too.
I have been having for 7 years.
@@alastair440 One more year of warranty and when the battery suddenly is done the car is toast. In the future, if batteries become cheap, sure. But then you need to pay a mechanic to do the job. If the car is worth 5k and the cost for the mechanic is 1k is it worth it? With battery swap these issues are avoided. And you swap in a charged battery in 3 minutes.
A guy driving Uber ended his Tesla battery in 12 months by always fast charging it.
I wouldn’t know how long my S battery would last because, as the denialists say, it’s caught fire three times a week for the four years I’ve had the car
@Wol747 You can end up paying $3k just in labour cost to have it changed. EVs with battery swap are a better solution.
Higher density doesn’t mean you want fewer KWhs capacity in your battery, it only means the size of the battery will smaller.
Since the 1990s, the energy density of lithium-ion batteries has increased from 80 Wh/kg to around 300 Wh/kg. The highest reported energy density for a full cell is 711 Wh/kg.
In 2008, the volumetric energy density of lithium-ion batteries was 55 watt-hours per liter, but by 2020 it had increased to 450 watt-hours per liter.
Imagine what it's going to be like in a decade's time.
I think the idea is that being lighter, the vehicle will have less rolling resistance, and require less energy to accelerate, thus being more efficient. Less weight will mean smaller tyres, which also improves aerodynamics. I'm not sure about this because at higher speeds it's aerodynamics that play a more important role in efficiency, and I don't see aerodynamics improving that much.
That is what I was thinking when he said that. If he said the smaller battery requirement due to charging rate increase, that would make more sense.
I think if battery density increases the battery kwh will remain the same or increase. In the USA people buy the biggest car they can find. Bigger cars need more battery capacity to keep the range or increase it. The Ford F150 is the second largest selling vehicle here. Typical Suvs are taller than mini vans. @@ThisRandomUsername
@@ThisRandomUsernameless weight does help with increasing range but it’s not as much as many think. If a model 3 battery energy density improves by 20%, you’d probably save 200 lbs. that’s about the same as adding an adult to your car on a road trip. The range doesn’t change much at all.
Your tire comment is important though and narrower tires would also improve range. If you reduce the battery weight by 200 lbs, would that be enough to reduce tire width? Maybe 10mm? So in total maybe your range is 3-5% better with a 200 lb weight reduction that uses narrower tires? I’ll take it but it’s not a huge number.
What I’m more excited about is the impact on handling, ride and acceleration from reduced weight. If current energy density improvements continue, we could see a 50% improvement in the next five years. Imagine taking 350 pounds out of a Tesla model 3? It would probably weigh less than a comparable ice car! Not to mention the acceleration, range in handling will be noticeably better. Very cool stuff!
In over 50 years of car ownership I've never owned one where the body outlasted the engine. It should be interesting to see how well EVs hold-up to road salt - especially the Chinese cars.
Buy an EV with a cast aluminum underbody if you live in an area that uses a lot of road salt. Some of the Chinese EVs are now using megacasting.
I live in Southern Ontario and what you say USED to be true, but not so much anymore. My old beaters used to be more bondo than metal - and a 1970's Ford would rust as soon as you drove it off the lot. Now, my last car I'm driving until it drops since the price of used EVs hasn't reached sanity yet where I live (and I'm certainly NOT buying a non-EV NOW). My 2011 Ford has 125K miles and no rust and the engine seems excellent. The transmission - I pray it will hold together, it's the infamous 6-speed.
If it dies I will likely buy a used Leaf, since a used BOLT costs about the same as a new one (if you can FIND ONE).
@@capnkirk5528 Funny, used Bolts are hard to find. Seems like people hold onto them!
It really depends on the brand. I recently watched a video of a full disassembly of the Lixiang L9, and I must say, the thickness of the metal used is comparable to that of Rolls Royce, but at a fraction of the price.
There’s always going to be a second hand parts market, there’s someone near me selling almost new Tesla batteries for $6k for the complete assembly.
As a mechanic I’ve done hundreds of engine repairs that are close to that or exceed that cost tremendously.
why are engine repairs expensive? If consumers actually bought things on the basis of how expensive maintaining it will be, would it be possible for engine repairs to be made a lot cheaper than they are today by support from the manufacturer?
I feel like there may be social reasons that doesn't happen, and these also seem likely to apply to EV battery replacement costs?
The industry is moving to batteries that will outlast the car body. Million mile batteries. When the car body is trash the batteries will be removed and sold for energy storage, making the scrap value of EVs much higher than ICEVs. Any needed battery pack replacements should be very rare, due to some sort of manufacturing flaw. EV makers would be wise to give very lengthy battery pack warranties, folding that small cost into the price of their EVs.
@@bobwallace9753
Ah, so the social difference is thus:
In the ICE world, the vehicle would always need repairs and no manufacturer is equipped to provide those themselves, so first-party guarantees couldn't easily be provided, and so there was never a way to put the burden of maintenance onto the manufacturer, and so they didn't build them to be maintainable.
While in the EV world, it's much easier to provide a guarantee of reliability in the first place, and in the second place, battery replacements can be made much simpler than engine repairs, so manufacturers probably *can* take on that burden and probably will and maintainability will be prioritised a lot more by the manufacturer.
@@spaceprior
With ICEVs the model has been for dealers to sell cars for not much profit, then make serious money on repairs and parts sales. The manufacturer covers the cost of repairs for a limited time (36 months, 30,000 miles). After that the owner is on the hook for repair costs.
With EVs we should see few, if any, problems with battery packs, electric motors, and electronics. That profit center for dealers will disappear.
If EV manufacturers want to expand their addressable market they can offer high mileage battery warranties (300k to 1M miles) which will reassure potential buyers of no battery costs over the life of the vehicle.
Use LFP batteries and there will be no battery fire issues. Give access to the Tesla Supercharger system and there will be no range anxiety issues.
@@bobwallace9753
1. "When the car body is trash the batteries will be removed and sold for energy storage, making the scrap value of EVs much higher than ICEVs." - Someone will have to pay for recycling. Now the costs of it are hidden, but we know that it's a problem, and you won't be able forever, to ship it to Poland or Africa, throw it on a pile, and set it on fire when it becomes visible from Cosmos, so the local government deals with the environmental disaster.
2. "With ICEVs the model has been for dealers to sell cars for not much profit, then make serious money on repairs and parts sales. The manufacturer covers the cost of repairs for a limited time (36 months, 30,000 miles). After that the owner is on the hook for repair costs." - What do you think will the EV makers do, when they don't have to fight for the market share anymore???
7 years ago a 100 amp hour LifPo4 battery sold for an average of $ 1,000 to $ 1,200. dollars. That same battery today can be purchased for under $ 300, dollars with many brands selling at or under $ 250. dollars... for the same 100 amp hour battery.
I've been shopping @Signature Solar; not seeing those low prices... Where are you shopping?
@@buixote::: Temu
@@buixote Just type in "100 amp hour battery" and you'll see plenty.
Amazon has great battery pricing
thats 15% CAGR
Another issue is EV battery packs can be reconditioned for far less than full replacement. What's going on is a battery pack can only be charged and discharged to the level of the weakest battery cells. So reconditioning involves removing these weak cells and replacing these cells with cells matched to the good cells in the pack. Cost being about 1/2 to 1/3 of a full new pack. Usually the reconditioned pack being good for another 200k miles.
I haven’t heard of anyone replacing individual cells in Tesla’s. What am I missing?
Quite often the burn out the fuses to the bad cell and the pack is good to go.
Not sure about direct replacement though.
I remember reading something about the replacement cell has to be very very close to the rest of the pack in voltage and a couple of other things as well.
Been a while since I looked into it.
@@rustybucket2248 You can't replace Tesla cells because the space between cells is filled with that nasty expanding plastic foam.
I mean, you CAN, but it would take forever to clean up that mess... so they generally replace the battery sections that have the bad cells.
This is how a EV battery recondition is done. Watch the video and you can do it yourself if you don't mind a little 400dc volt risk. th-cam.com/video/0HWnRSYCvNI/w-d-xo.htmlsi=Ig55x_fb11kzt9Sh
@@rustybucket2248 Tesla is not the consumer's friend. Right-to-repair from Tesla is on par with right-to-repair from Apple.
So many different batteries being worked on. That's what I am waiting for. Got me a old vw bug I'm going to convert to electric!
I would keep driving it until the engine fails.
My mates got a VW EV van sitting on his drive gathering moss in negative equity if you want to buy that 🤷♂
It does 30 miles in cold weather !
@@rocketmunkey1 He should sell it and let someone get it that wants it.
I would have thought that with the Chinese releasing 1-3 million km batteries that in reality batteries will soon be guaranteed way beyond the useful economic life of the rest of the vehicle and that these batteries would potentially have a second life as residential/commercial storage.
Guarantees are against the manufacturing or design defects but there are also other cases like some fairly minor accidents or some misuse that wont be covered by the guarantees but still require battery replacement. There are lots of people that are afraid of battery replacement cost and this would address their concerns and would make second hand EVs more interesting for them. For example car buyers that are buying cheaper and older cars and don't want to pay higher premiums for the comprehensive coverage might not be very interested about buying car that could bring them battery swap bill that equals value of the car.
Batteries last 450-600k km. Vehicles rarely last that long outside of Arizona.
@@wolfgangpreier9160 curious Brit here - why do they last so long in AZ?
@@Acemeistre No rust. No short drives only long slow stretches on dry dusty roads.
AZ cars can last 40-60 years easily. The same car in the rust belt or in Norway, Germany, UK may last 10 years tops.
The same goes for Utah - but they drive faster. Also Southern California but they have more salt in the air. New Mexico, East Texas, South Kansas. Everywhere there are dry long roads without sea salt or other contaminants.
Both lithium and cobalt are rarely occurring elements. I can see the countries where cobalt and lithium do exist forming a cartel to raise the price of both these commodities. Another factor is the tendency of lithium batteries to explode. In the UK at present there is a campaign to prevent e-bike/scooters from exploding, do not charge the vehicle indoors and near to your escape route is the message.
Alternatively, sodium might be a better solution to batteries, what about capacitors as a storage method. There have recently been advances in this technology. Needless to say petrol will put up a fight. Just because electric is the best does not mean that it will triumph I.e. betamax v VHS. Love your stuff.
Having over capacity in battery productioon for the next several years will be a great boost to energy storage systems. Solar, wind, and batteries (SWB) is already cheapest form of electricity -- as batteries decrease in price/increase in availability, SWB will usher in super-abundant power. Combustion is dead.
SWB is NOT the the cheapest form of electricity production. Batteries cost similar to a gas turbine peaking plant in the US (with the cheapest gas costs in the developed world). And batteries can only last a few hours, whereas peaking plants can output indefinitely. Solar and wind are sometime cheaper on a LCOE basis, but NOT on a LACE basis. If you don't understand those terms, you don't understand electrical grid production.
@@dzcav3 According to current research, the statement "SWB is NOT the cheapest form of electricity production" is incorrect; most experts agree that a system combining solar, wind, and batteries (SWB) is currently considered one of the most cost-effective ways to generate electricity, often even cheaper than traditional power plants in many regions, making it a leading contender for the cheapest option.
I'm replacing engine in my 50k mile 2018 Cruze now: $5k... While seeing $12K 2025 Leafs on AutoTrader in Colorado (Fed + State rebates).
2015 1.6t cruze, has been a nightmare of dumb ice failures from 110k miles, we are limping at 140k miles.
Good luck sir!
If the Leaf is a decent vehicle that is dirt cheap.
That is sad but relatively cheap. Would think about selling at 90k tho:)
Should have bought the Leaf.
Don't know why you would spend $5k on the Cruze as its value can't be that much. If you are in Colorado you should take advantage of their state rebates and the federal rebate before they go away. We have had 3 Leafs and they were fantastic cars for the money. But they are not road trip cars. They fast charge very slowly. Good luck on whatever you do.
Can't wait for aftermarket battery options as I'm planning to keep my MS100D until the tires fall off. 3rd party options will be a game changer.
Might be a while yet for Tesla. However, there are now at least 3 new non-OEM options for the Nissan Leaf using CATL cells. Two from China and one from New Zealand. I see this trend continuing soon for Kia, Hyundai and Chevy.
My wife and I were early EV adopters and still love our 8 year old Nissan Leaf. The battery has degraded, but it's still a perfect city car. We'll look at putting in a new active cooled battery in a couple of years. Great to hear prices are coming down. We'd love to keep our Leaf for another 10 years.
I looked up the cost of replacing various combustion related parts incl labor: spark plugs $600, transmission $3500 (and much more for luxury cars), engine $3000-8000.
This is game changing if true
In Finland replacing an engine in an old car cost around 3,000-6,000 euros. Replacing a battery cost 10,000-60,000 euros....But maybe in some day we can get new battery for 5000 euros.
Yeah a Jaguar Ipace and Porsche Taycan battery replacement is approx 40-45k. You must have a mental problem if you buy them second hand / out of warranty. But otherwise get one now that has 4 years of battery warranty left (not the mentioned cars) and you probably will pay significantly less than today for replacement in the future. A LR model 3 battery from 2019 should do 400k km easily. Not sure if you can cope with the interior quality and road noise for 400k km though.
The industry is moving to very high cycle life batteries. Replacing a battery pack is likely to become extremely rare. The only reason would be due to a manufacturing error and that should show up quickly while the car was still in warranty.
Any sufficiently advanced technology is indistinguishable from magic.
With the IQ and education of the average American, most household appliances are indistinguishable from magic.
Seriously, think about how many people haven't the foggiest notion how most of the things in their house work.
That's the amazing compression ignition engine. You can magically put diesel fuel in it, vegetable oil, paint thinners, and magically it can still run.
Compression ignition is the most versatile source of motive power
Wow. He talked for 9 minutes and actually said something for 9 minutes.
(6:19 - it's the reverse - we will want BIGGER not smaller kWh) As density and cost improves the kWh size of batteries will INCREASE, not decrease. More kWh = more energy = more range and it will be affordable .
Not necessarily.
Fully agree, smaller batteries would require even more chargers and more hpc ones. Also, for those using the trailer hitch it would be really bad.
Do we??? I honestly see abs 6:21 olutely no need for an EV to have more than 350 to 400 miles of range.
As energy densities go up Batteries GET LIGHTER. Lighter vehicles get better range. This means doubling the energy density of a 77 Kwh battery would give you 50 to 80 miles more range. So a cheaper more dense 77 Kwh battery equals a 350 or more mile range vehicle.
@simonengvall7433 What???? In the future a 77 Kwh battery will be half the size and weight.
Sure the battery will be smaller but MORE CAPABLE..
@@johnlodge8546 Ofc I get that. However, in the video the electric viking claims the batteries will be smaller in capacity (the way I interpret it). I don't think that is the future, but maybe I am wrong.
There will be very few legacy automakers that will want to have anything to do with offering extremely inexpensive autos. They are large margin driven as we have all experienced...
And that is fast becoming a failed business model, high cost, high price.
Only Mercedes, Ferrari, and the like will survive with high cost/high margin. It's a new world, or will be.
Their model is profits after sale - servicing, parts etc. That is coming to an end rapidly.
Either produce an EV the market wants to buy or go out of business. Hard times are coming for legacy automakers.
The legacy automakers are dying as we speak. Ford, Renault, WV, Audi Mercedes etc are all on the brink of extinction. They resisted with all their might but was beat by the chinese in the end. Same will happen to the chinese as well in time unless they roll with the times. Perhaps when Africa or Latin America emerges, who knows.
@@TheTuxmania
I can't see major car manufacturers emerging from Africa or South/Central America. More likely, Chinese companies will continue to move into those areas and build plants. China, at the moment, has too many EV makers, a large number will likely go out of business. But my money is on China to dominate EV production. Tesla is likely to morph into a robotaxi company that builds its own taxis.
EV batteries are hundreds of the same part wired together and if properly designed can be almost totally put together automatically and when exhausted can be fully recycled recovering all the minerals and metals. Look at any ICE engine strip down video and you see why they are finished.
But to recycle them efficiently you need to get them out. That cannot be done manually on a billion cars. That is why battery swap is the future. E.g. NIO, Onvo, Firefly.
The USA and the EU have enough recycling capacity plants - on paper and in planning. They haven´t built them yet. One of the big players with big government spending and subsidies payed out/ a lot of factories on paper was Northvolt. Northvolt is bancrupt. In theory recycling is "easy". What does it cost in real life? Unfortunately I foresee a very near future where EVs will be dumped in Africa by all nature-loving western countries - while the big player China will be the one to make the first move.
@@SunshineShane Separate the battery from the car is step one. A repetitive task - perfect for a robot. I.e. battery swap.
@SunshineShane The EVs without swap will be dumped there - that is why environmental groups will push for EVs with swap.
@@SunshineShane
Can't run a battery recycling operation until there are enough batteries to recycle.
Yeah if sodium batteries are eventually as weight efficient as lithium ones are now wow hope you have a vehicle that allows easy access to battery compartment🤯
You would still have to either change or re-program the BMS (and possibly car's body-computor) because the cells will have different voltages and current capacities.
@ 💯
Great news
I think an important question would be would that lower battery cost directly translate to cheaper products or bigger profits?
Imagine the potential for home battery storage as well
Home and large scale grid storage. Low cost, high cycle life batteries are the answer to a 100% renewable energy grid and low cost electricity.
Weight is less of a problem for stationary storage. So sodium or ??? will shine.
As a past automotive technician and a lifelong gear head I regretfully agree
But will the replaceable battery be recyclable. Otherwise, what's the improvement here?
I always thought this would be the case. The issue is, say you have a Tesla M3 your battery at some point needs replacing and the cost of the battery is low. Will companies like Tesla support swapping this out for a new battery that is cheaper and offers more range or do they want to be selling a new car.
Make interchangeable cells and allow access to them. Add software that reads cells conditions and it could be as simple as a oil change
John, agreed!
Sounds good, but…
It is all cost / benefit. It is just not worth it.
And not now does it cost more, it normally means a loss of reliability.
A replacement engine for a Toyota Camry is $11k AUD if you buy it from a dealer.. It wont be long before battery prices are less than that.
To me, this is not speculation but merely an affirmation of the reality. If you consider how much labour there is to remove and overhaul and engine -- not to mention have all the parts shipped to the garage where it is done -- it makes total sense. Modern car engines are very complex and something as "simple" as a ring or valve job requires a lot of dissasembly and re-assembly. This is why it is often cheaper to replace an entire engine with a second-hand one. Structural battery packs can be replaced from the bottom (see Sandy Munro) and they will not be disassembled in the the shop. With improved design, they are much less likely to need replacement at the same number of service kms than an ICE engine. Solid state batteries promise even more, in this respect.
204,000k,(2017 s) still fantastic,(and free electricty
I’m all in on XAI501x after seeing your analysis! This could be a game changer!
“Goldman Sachs said it, wow must be true”. Made me laugh
What bothers me is cell packs being a structural part of the shell. How can a battery pack be replaced when that has been done?
NIO will soon have a Billion battery swaps. So he is completely right.
Does not make economic sense. There's the extra cost of batteries plus swapping stations. With DC charging times dropping lower and lower, battery swapping would save little time. And as we see more DC chargers at places like fast food restaurants and grocery stores people will be able to plug in and charge without losing any time.
Do you think the grid can support 1 billion electric cars all fast charging 😅🤣 Nio has the solution for supporting the grid with there battery packs and also earn money with it , charge them when its the cheapest and in dense cities you dont even have opportunity to charge your car it something isnt even allowed when you live in a appartment with a garage. What do you think when nio drive itself @ night in the future to a swap station so your car is full when you leave in the morning ? Alot a brands in China already joined nio's swapping station and will implement it its just a matter of time. Also your car isnt worthless when your battery is done like Seba told its all what nio does 😅. Keep being blind and let this company expend untill all people realise.
@@bobwallace9753that's not true because charging a car from 5-100 procent takes atleast 45 minuts if your lucky also fast charging degradates your battery faster then with normal charging wich makes totally sense to use battery swap also your car isnt worthless when your battery dies because its swappable 😅 they also guarantee that your battery is always approx above 88% capacity. My groceries get delivered at home and i maybe eat fast food once in months.
@yannick-sy4ph Charging overnight in your own garage is far more convenient and cheaper.
@ Good news! You can charge, swap, or upgrade with NIO. You need to unlearn what you have learned. 🤨
This will be game changing. If all manufacturers adopt the 15 year battery warranty too ICE is over.
It is not the cost of the battery - it is the cost of work that is the issue - unless your car has SWAP. That is, a NIO or Onvo or Firefly that can swap battery in under 3 minutes.
The battery alone is about 30% of the cost of the car
When working on an ICE labour is free?
1 difference is that there are far fewer parts that need to be disconnected and reconnected with a battery pack.
@@walidoutaleb7121you may have outdated data, check again, lithium went down last year, batteries this year.
Well battery swap is an advantage in that case for your likely one time repair. Tesla labor rate is currently $100/ hr and takes about 10 hrs give or take. Even at $150/hr it’s does not exceed the projected $3000 or so for the pack alone. In 10 years charging speeds will likely make swap even less important. I prefer the safety of a true structural battery pack that takes 10 hours or so to replace rather than a snap together vehicle. With home charging overnight time is generally not an issue for daily driving. Road trips driving 2-3 hours at a whack and stopping for a 10-30 minute fast charge is not a big deal either. I can’t imagine swap stations being as ubiquitous as Tesla superchargers.
@@Yippydog There are no benefits with integrating the battery in the chassis. The benefits of swap are many.
Swap saves you charging time (and in comparison) fast charging kills the battery.
When the battery is done, you can change it without taking the car apart.
If your car is worth 5k the work to swap a Tesla battery is 1k, i.e. 20% of the value. With an EV with swap, you just go and swap. Read - the economic life of the car becomes much longer.
Swap stations allow service to the batteries, slow charging overnight of many batteries - so people without a home charger (most people live in apartments) can power their cars.
Swap stations balance the grid, buy power at night, sell power during peak hours at profit. Imagine a fleet of Taxis, they need to operate 24/7 to be the most efficient. And fast charging kills them + kills the grid.
You can sell the car with a tiny 80 kwh battery and user swap in huge battery when going on vacation - saves weight, power, resources.
There is no reason not to buy an EV without swap.
I see Toyota replacement costs on those 100k 20-23 Tundras is going to be about 8k today.
Can't believe I almost missed out on Cardano and XAI501x! Thanks for the heads-up in your video!
It would be good if we could have a lightweight storage device that held around 450-550 miles, sure it will happen within the next 10 years !
That type of battery will be in airplanes first, I think, due to price.
I wouldn’t bee surprised if solid state beings shipping in EV’s in 3 years time, initially expensive ones, but it will filter down. By 10 years time I think that sort of range/weight will be common.
Why do you need that much range? Do you ever drive 450 miles without stopping for a bite to eat or to take a pee?
@ yes I do as a pensioner I have my hobby weekends away Wales, Bradford etc and the convenience for me is doing the journey in one hit, stopping for a toilet break and a takeaway coffee and getting the journey done, then I can relax when I get to the hotel and not worry about mileage left in the car because I can gat back home on one tank of fuel in my auto.
I understand that’s not everyone but it really suits my lifestyle at my age.
@@johngoff8923
If you stop for a pee and a coffee, you will have stopped long enough to charge from 20% to 80%. Do a little thinking. I'm assuming you can plug in at home, which means zero stops for fuel throughout your year. And very large cost savings by using electricity rather than fuel. If, in fact, driving an EV on your hobby weekends added ten or fifteen minutes to your travel time wouldn't it be worth it to save all that other refueling time and cost?
Why would I need to replace the battery if they are good for 20 years?
I think if you need an engine replacement for mid sized ICE from the Volkswagen Group, your 100kWh battery pack costing $56 per kWh is now already cheaper ($5600). Off course it’s not the price end consumers wil pay at this moment. Total Tesla battery replacement seems around €15000 at this moment (Netherlands).
From what I understand most of the time it’s not necessary to replace the entire battery but just one defective module or battery management system (BMS). Tesla will replace the entire battery, but specialized companies only replace the defective module for €1000 - €2000. A total replacement will be necessary in case of bottom damage.
Have you seen how Munro extract a battery in structural packs? Forget cell replacements! And structural packs won't be a breeze either. If the pack is cheap, it will still be worth it.
Nio Battery Swapp Cheap. Always the best Battery 5 minute Swapp. Standard Cheap Batteries and Swapp, charged with Solar Power.
There’s also the battery management system and chargers balancing unit, SRS pyrotechnic fuse and the case price to consider when costing a EV battery, not just the KWh to dollar amount.
But still if that adds another $1500-2000 it’s still not bad if it lasts 10-15 years.
This is why everyone should not be afraid of getting an EV from a company you know will be around in the future. Drive your EV for well over 250K (assuming you take care of all the other parts of the car) or more. This will take most people 15-20 years. Then if you need another battery pack it will be cheap.
You may also get a ton more range by then too as the energy density of standard batteries will have gotten much better. So you may have the option of getting a higher KWhr pack in the same size pack OR one that is similar in power to the old one but much lighter this also giving you more range.
Who knows, with care, parts replacement, etc your EV may be the last car you will ever buy new.
It might be on the sooner side if we can avoid the massive recession economists expect. What GS left out was the 16 hours of labor to replace that engine. $3500 is just the parts. Add to this the recycle/reuse value of the battery pack and price parity is around the corner. The bottleneck will be finding a shop that can do the work. That side still needs to scale in most of the country.
@@titanispi1998 Just do the reconditioning yourself. Never mind the 400dcv minor hazard. th-cam.com/video/0HWnRSYCvNI/w-d-xo.htmlsi=Ig55x_fb11kzt9Sh
What are the risks associated with lithium batteries causing vehicle fires when they come in contact with water (such as floods)?
Lead Acid car batteries don't seem to be shorting and exploding when cars get flooded now. I don't see how it would be much different with lithium ones.
Dammit even Tony Seeba on the ozempic! Nooooo
I do love Seba and RethinkX, and they've inspired many of my own projections. Just to be clear, the study by Recurrent didn’t say 'fix' but 'replace,' so while some engine fixes might cost under 2k, replacing an engine would start around the 5k mark today.
Battery fixing instead of replacing is also becoming mainstream. 'Auto trader' TH-cam channel did video about a place where they fix the battery instead of replacing it all.
Current ev battery cost are in two area : changing cost is huge still bigger than fuel engine but its trend is going to be cheaper; the other cost is the industry has not have comprehensive chain for recycling and processing used high power car battery yet. Making these batteries and recycling these batteries cause more pollution than transitional engines still . Pollution on the road is less but its overall pollution on factory and processing sites are still high. We have a long way to go. Hopefully in 10-20 years the situation will will be much better.
The cost to replace my Mazda CX5 diesel was $26k … fortunately Mazda paid for it even though it was out of warranty… but yeah battery replacement is likely to be cheaper
That actually sounds just like the future to me. The trend has been a bit obvious actually, range anxiety will be rarer than TDS soon!
How more energy density will require less energy capacity?
Easy there is less weight to lug around.
Yeah, Sam is confused, higher energy density means lighter/smaller batteries. It doesn't mean you'll need less capacity.
The only major impact energy density has on range is weight. I am not sure that energy density increases in a few years will result in drastic reductions in the kWh of battery packs.
Auto manufacturers will continue to offer warranties so the replacement price might be for the third or fourth owner. Resale shouldn’t drop too much because replacing a battery pack won’t mean as much as it does now.
While the cost of EV battery parts has decreased significantly over the years, labor costs for battery replacement remain substantial. This is because many EV designs position the battery pack beneath the vehicle, requiring complex procedures to access and replace them. Although some manufacturers are exploring solutions like battery swapping to improve accessibility, these innovations are not yet widespread across the industry. My hot take is that the parts price will continue to drop (per your reporting, thanks for this), but the labor price will likely increase as manufacturers haven't standardized efforts to make batteries accessible for servicing. There is no hood or battery tray for ease of access.
Batteries are a perfect example of economies of scale in production. If you wanted to manufacture just one, it would cost millions, maybe hundreds of millions of dollars. But if you want to produce a hundred million, it won’t cost much more than making just one. The manufacturing complexity is lost in the scale of identical units. (For a comparison, imagine what a bespoke smartphone would cost, and look at what they cost when we make a hundred million of them.) So it makes sense that, as manufacturing experience grows, cost of manufacturing will approach the cost of the raw materials alone.
With batteries, it's all about the price of materials. There was a shortage of lithium which made battery prices high. Along with the high cost of cobalt. As EVs move to LFP batteries and lithium production has greatly increased material costs have plummeted.
@ There’s this myth that lithium is rare. It isn’t. But the mining facilities are still coming online in response to demand. And with exponential demand coming, there’s a LOT of motivation to get supply in the pipeline.
Sam - have you ever given it a thought where all the extra cupper that goes into an EV is going to come from ?? There are mountain ranges of money being poured into battery technology but almost nothing invested into new cupper mines ! The dream of all transportation being by bev's tomorrow is going to hit some bumps !
Hi Sam. Hope you are well. Looking forward to Electric Everything show in Sydney in 2025
Are you posting free tickets on your page for this event
Tc and keep up the good work
Alex
You are right the price of cells will plumet. New technology is always expensive, for example I can remember walking into JB-HiFi around 2005, there was a new plasma flat screen for $55,000, today I can buy a much better TV today for around $500. The IBM XT was $10,000, plus $7,000 for a 5Mb hard card (hard drive). Retail prices for technology always trend down at a rapid rate (except for Apple of course). So yes, your cost estimations are close. However, there are problems. In the early EV days, it was possible to remove the battery pack and replace a single defective cell. With the current Li-po battery packs this is both dangerous and or impossible. In some cases, the battery pack is built into the floor pan and physically can't be removed. Sodium batteries look like they are the future, however again the issue is they are going to be cheaper than lithium, however the energy density of the cell will be less than a lithium cell. This will be easily fixed by increasing the size of the battery pack, however, will decrease range due to an increase of weight of the vehicle. The energy density of LiPo cell technology hit a wall years ago, it has not increased hence the search for new battery chemistry. The real-world performance of a sodium battery pack is still unknown as the honesty of the media when it comes to EV's is abysmal. As for the ICE, it will be around for the foreseeable future. The EV has it's uses but also has its limitations. Electric boats, ships, trains, trucks, jets, aircraft, heavy machinery are not going to happen anytime soon. For anyone who drives long distances, tows, off roads or drives in weather extremes the EV is not an option. The other problem is cost, in Australia, the cost of electricity has sky-rocketed, and will continue to increase. Another issue with the EV is depreciation, with the rapid drop in new prices, trading in second-hand EVs also takes a hit.
In future you can buy a battery with small battery. The battery unit will contain a larger battery. You will be able to purchase the larger battery from company. Program code into car to access the larger battery capacity. Most cars will come with a standard size battery container. Easy replaced. Sealed for life, possible the property of the car manufacturer
What will happen with used prices for old EV?
Your insights on XAI501x were exactly what I needed! Ready to make my move and buy!
I wish i could pay $56 a kwh for my home solar system. Ebay has 300 ah lifepo4 batteries ( 3.84 kwh ) for $390 right now. That's $102 per kwh.
56$ per kWh is without shipping, shipping adds a good chunk to the prices, also BMS and other work, still $100 per kWh is awesome to see
@@sebyst7907 Agreed. I paid $119 / kwh just 4 months ago. The future is bright.
Viking I'm a big fan!! But neither you nor the article mentions the value of the used batteries for the secondary market or the value of the minerals. I have a 2022 Model Y and by the time I need a new battery it will get swapped out in exchange for free for my current nickel battery! Can an ICE engine make that claim?
Battery cost will come down but will we get to solid-state before then? The energy density still needs to at least double for the weight they are now.
This is why battery swap (NIO, Onvo, Firefly) is the future.
How so?
One of the main problem still facing EVs these days is the charging infrastructure... even an EV bull like me will admit that much!
Setting up a V3 Supercharger costs Tesla around $25-40'000, everything included. This supercharger can service, at a busy time, an average of 3 vehicles per hour. The investment necessary to have 1 vehicle/hour charging capacity, in the present case the critical parameter, is of the order of $10-15'000.
Setting up a battery swap station is said to cost around $420k PLUS the cost of leasing or buying the substantial plot of land it requires. That does NOT even include the immobilized value of the batteries that the station must have charging, or in reserve (I'll come back later on that), which is easily several hundred thousand dollars worth of batteries. Such a station, at a busy time, can swap around 10 batteries per hour. Therefore, the investment per vehicle/hour charging capacity is likely to be in excess of $60'000... roughly 5 TIMES higher than that of a supercharger!
Furthermore, that station has lots of technology and moving parts. Maintaining it is therefore much more critical and costly than maintaining an equivalent charging capacity in superchargers (about 3 units, maybe 4).
A battery swap will hence be more expensive to the customer than a direct DC fast charge! AND will make swapping stations rare and far between! In Europe each additional swap above the monthly subscription (which includes 4 swaps) is €30. I don't know how much it is if you have no subscription, but it is sure to be higher! A typical charge of my Model 3's battery at a Supercharger costs me €15-20!
But the issues discussed above pale against the one of battery standardization. For the time being, just about EVERY electric car has a battery different from that of other models. Quite often, the same car model can be equipped by totally different types of batteries depending on where and when it was manufactured. But you need to standardize more than the battery itself, you also need to standardize the battery cooling system, as well as the sensor suite, and battery management system! Finally, battery swapping prohibits the possibility to make the battery structural, resulting in a considerably heavier vehicle!
Such a standardization is extremely difficult to achieve within the models of a single brand, but completely impossible across brands! Therefore, a battery swapping station can serve ONLY the few, very few models it was designed for, and has batteries in store for (back to the initial point on the necessary storage of batteries).
A DC fast-charger can technically service ANY EV (an adapter may occasionally be needed... but nothing worse than that).
There are at least a half-dozen other points that make battery swapping a losing idea... and very very few advantages.
Battery swapping is DEFINITELY not the future. Renault has tried it with its partner called Better Place (which went bankrupt due to too heavy investment requirements... my first point), as well as Tesla (the battery of the Model S... at least of the early models, CAN be swapped), who tried the idea, but very quickly abandoned it.
Final note: you may rightfully ask: if battery-swapping is really that bad, why has Nio and a couple other Chinese manufactures gone with it? Are they totally dumb? No, probably they aren't. There may be a case for battery swapping in large Chinese cities. That much, I don't know. But there is NO case for it, neither in Europe nor in North America!
@st-ex8506 You must be (economically) able to swap out a faulty battery. That is the elephant in the room that you missed. NIO swap tech becomes the standard. In cities they may swap instead of charging. The same along highways. A lot of market actors are interested in building swap stations and chargers for various reasons. In the future, robots and swap stations will be able to handle both different batteries and car dimensions. The reason Firefly will get another swap station moden is because the car is to narrow for the other stations.
Weight and resources - with swap you can drive with a small light battery and swap in a huge battery when going on vacation. That saves weight, power and resources.
Soon there will be laws in Europe saying that cars need to be able to swap out their battery. Such a law regarding consumer electronics is already in place.
What do you think the environmental groups will push for - integrating the battery in the chassis so you need to scrap the car as soon as something happens to the battery + making it a mess to recycle?
I don’t want a battery in my garage that was potentially damaged by someone else. Maybe when battery technology changes and is less delicate.
@st-ex8506 Superchargers kill the batteries. Uberdriver killed his Tesla battery in 12 months. With swap you do not have that issue and you save time. EVs without swap is a stupid solution. You need to be able to get the battery out cheaply and if you can also get the option to have a fully charged battery in 3 minutes - bingo. It is not rocket science to understand.
BTW, just a heads-up: I've seen you call the learning curve trend "Moore's law" it's actually called "the learning curve" or "Wright's Law", anyway, just a clarification, carry on!
Unfortunately, the current design with battery as frame seems to prevent this kind of repair.
They need to design them so at least 20% of the batteries can be easily replaced and then work up some circuitry that uses those batteries first ( but doesn't take them below 15% unless the entire battery is running low).
Car A and B are the same, but one also has swap. Which one do you choose?
That would be awesome if battery costs dropped that much
In an EV with battery swap option (e.g. NIO) your battery will never fail - i.e. the battery will never force you to scrap the car - as with a Tesla.
Integrating the battery in the chassis, like e.g. Tesla is a stupid solution.
You assume the battery will fail.
@@Islamisthecultofsinit will. Nothing lasts Forever. Warranty is limited for a reason.
I guess the thing is, 95% of car bodies will die before the battery does, so it’s not needed.
@ISuperTed Show me a battery that has lasted 16 years of use. And 16 years is only the average. Quality cars last much longer.
One dude driving Uber killed his Tesla battery in 12 months.
You want an EV with battery swap.
I have a Land Rover Defender that is 40 years old. The EU has passed a law making battery swap mandatory for consumer electronics.
We are not moving towards less resource efficiency..
@@Islamisthecultofsin Yes it will. If it will not, manufacturers could offer 25 years 100% full warranty for the ev battery.
I think this is absolutely obvious. Batteries are essentially tech that follow a cost curve which is dropping like a stone already. On top of this at some point it will be robot arms replacing batteries in the same way they do in the factory itself. So you've dropped your labour cost completely. But you don't need this disruption in labour to To see that cost curve decline of the battery itself is already dropping precipitously
I don’t understand why you would want a smaller kWh battery back just because energy density has gone up? If anything you would have a bigger kWh pack as you fit more in the same space in your vehicle and it would also be cheaper per kWh. Am I missing something?
Because for many people the range is already ok.. and a smaller lighter pack means reduced rolling resistance, more space for cargo, better handling, faster acceleration, reduce tyre wear, lower price
Weight.
If true I'd buy one.
It would seem obvious EV car manufacturers will need to change how batteries are accessed. Changing a battery will need to be quick & easy. I still ask the question. Where are we going to get the electricity from to charge all these EV‘s. Here in the United States we are not creating additional electrical output is actually the opposite.
That is why there are EVs with battery swap. You have a robot do the job. Fast, cheap, safe.
From your roof.
24GW factory in North Carolina: Natron Energy’s batteries are the only UL-listed sodium-ion batteries on the market today, and will be delivered to a wide range of customer end markets in the industrial power space, including data centers, mobility, EV fast charging, microgrids, and telecom, among others.
This may be the Timex story all over again. Do you remember when the Silica timer in watches made them amazingly accurate and amazingly cheap, that a Timex watch with this innovation was cheaper and cheaper until it wasn't worth while for a store to sell them. There wasn't enough profit in carrying Timex to make it worthwhile. I have read recently about LiFePO4 batteries that are coming in at around $100US per kWh and yet I just had a quote to install a battery to compliment my solar panels for 19 times that cost. At some point, the actual price of the battery is not relevant.
My "friend" had a broken plastictube in his aircondition, it leaked water and ruined his electrics in his Audi, it was like 4k to repair!
I suspect that replacement battery will cost you more than the one that came in your car.
Same is true for any replacement unitsuch as printer cartridges...
@@davesradiorepairs6344 Exactly. Will be like drug dealers giving you free samples.
Not necessarily, there’s a whole business founded on refurbishing printer cartridges, same will apply, in fact it already does
Sam, my friend already performed a detailed price calculation of the material cost per 1 kWh of LFP battery cells. Guess the amount of USD? It's a little bit lower than 15 USD!!!!!!! So, when battery manufacturers pay debts, the LFP cells will cost 20 USD/kWh and they will still be making big money because of the scale. The complete battery for home storage will be around 30 USD/kWh very soon. A complete LFP EV battery with thermal management will still be below 50 USD/kWh. This will happen before 2030!
I know that this is coming and I'm waiting for trust, me.😊😊
George Davis
I wish I could just send a dollar tip easily through this stupid app. You would become a millionaire my friend.
Superthanks
Labour costs on a battery replacement will be LOTS cheaper. Hiw much electrics, plumbing abd mechanical linkages are there to an engine. Vs main powerlines, comms harness and a cooling loop to a battery. They were designing them to go to battery swap facilities in 90 seconds at one point. Fully automated. Vs a couple of days at least in the shop for an emgine. My kast major failure was a valve and head replacement... so engine left in situ, and that was ~ £800 for parts and £1900 labour.
I was just about to say this makes CATL a questionable investment, as it would compress margins hugely, but then again, it the volumes of batteries that are purchased will rise exponentially.
*Tony Seba* got it right. Battery prices are dropping even as their cycle lives improve.
Not only that but as battery recycling catches up, replacing a vehicle's battery pack will be a few minutes' long operation.
Not if they are structural packs. &/or not if the access is through the cabin with all those seats. Doable but not a breeze. But then look at the enthusiasts who polish inlet ports so the can comb their hair in them - it will become a hobby!
Efficiency of EV's like Tesla's aren't likely to change drastically in the future so you'll still want a 75kw to 100kw pack. Battery energy density will make the packs smaller and lighter but you'll still need the same amount of overall power. Those smaller and lighter packs will be the primary source of future EV's being more efficient than current day EV's. But it won't be such a large increase that you'll want a 50kw pack.
Car battery packs can't be measured in kw/h for there physical size. The kw/h will go up as the physical size goes down. Cars will not have 50kw/h packs because of energy density, they will have more, maybe 150 kw/h but in a size that is smaller than current 75kw/h packs.
So for ~4K plus labor i could replace the battery pack in my model Y. And still have the original battery pack, potentially wire it up to use it as a backup power (or off-grid power) for my house? Sweet.
Sell the old pack - it will still be worth something.
Such good news for storage of grid electricity. Combined with solar, tidal, wind, hydro and geothermal, we will not need expensive, damaging coal, gas or nuclear! Hooray!!
Well, someday. Here in New York, we don't burn any coal or oil, so that's a start.
@ yes good start, but economics will favour solar, wind and hydro without any shadow of nuclear into the future!
We certainly are getting gouged on powerwalls then aren’t we …..
Nissan Leaf 40kWh 11.500 Euros.
Inverter etc. about 5000,--
Total cost for 30 kWh net capacity 16.500,--
Tesla powerwall 13,5kWh 7320,--
27 kWh roughly 16.500,-- incl. Gateway
I guess Tesla is still cheaper.
@@wolfgangpreier9160 l meant the general price of the battery’s to produce initially , which would be roughly around 700 dollars , then you’ve got the hardware etc on top of that ( powerwalls here are around $13400 )
Absolutely. You can buy a 28.6 kwh(14.3x2) eg4 battery for 7k and an 18k pv inverter for 5k.
Add an additional 1k for install and you can install a 28kwh system for less than 13k.
@@KenSiebring According to many Websites Tesla Powerwall costs 9.300,-- US$ Minus incentives - i did not count incentives because they are locally very different.
If you add the installer cost then both - Nissan Leaf and Tesla power wall cost about 1500,-- - 2.500,-- more.
Not 4000,-- that is too much.
Yup. Even non-Tesla House Batteries remain expensive.
told you! teased you about your estimates.
As EV battery energy density increases the number of battery cell in a battery pack will decrease while the total energy remain the same. For example for a 100 Kwh battery pack, a 50% increase in energy density will half the number of battery cell. In such a scenario the weight of EV vehicle will decrease substantially as well as vehicle material cost.
Charge with what?
I don't think most people understand how bad the status quo actually is and compare new products do so with a slanted view.
Sam, I think there's a misunderstanding here. If you're saying that higher energy density battery chemistries will lead to lower kWh in the car (you mention the example of 400Wh/kg leading to maybe max 50kWh batteries).
I believe that is not correct. The argument would be: you'll get more range out of the same weight of battery OR your battery weight will be lower for the same amount of range. Also, this might not even affect batteries' physical size either since the gravimetric energy density doesn't tell you about the volumetric energy density. So based on this, I doubt cars will get lower average energy capacity batteries in future, rather the contrary: the average battery capacity will likely increase (from maybe 58kWh->70kWh) while battery weight remains similar. Unless for badget EV options, of course, in the case of which we'd still have maybe 50kWh capacity but since that will be lower weight, your car will still go further than present day 50kWh batteries. So also an improvement.
I've heard you say this several times now in the last months and thus wanted to finally point that out.
Once they go to sodium batteries, it might be possible. Wait and see.
It will cheaper replacing the battery pack than replacing a combustion engine in modern cars.
you are confusing the production cost with end user price. looking at the spare parts prices today and price for installing it will be cost price X 3. No reason to think batteries will get smaller with falling price and weigth, more the oppesite if they can offer +500 miles range at not much higher price.
Solid State