@@rynesweeney I think we should look at the bigger picture first. Like, China is heading into major economic breakdown. Climate change and war is also playing into this.
@@fredguntern.e.4185 climate change will adjust how we live sure, but china is moving faster towards clean energy than any other major power. Chinese EVs in 2021 already are 90% of what a Tesla is. No other car maker is close. Legacy automakers have cars with competitive specs for 2021 that are debuting in 2024 or much later. China is now. 90% of a Tesla for 60% of the price? Its all China. War wont be anything major. Except for Taiwan, land isnt what anybody wants. Tech and intelligence will be whats fought over. And nobody wants to get into a war with the US. If so it probably would have already happened.
@@rynesweeney As far as war: China just tested a hyper sonic weapon. One US General said the only reason they would want this is to have first strike advantage. As far as clean energy: There is not just thing. Second China is snowballing anyone who thinks they care about the environment. Coal use has actually increased, and China will cheat anyway they can to make it look like the country is a corporate citizen. Remember; the communist party is a criminal enterprise.
@@fredguntern.e.4185 These statements are valid, though they are pieces of the big picture thats being ignored. China is using more and more energy. The country is so large that they need more coal, solar, wind, whatever energy. Coal increase because its needed. Supply isnt matching demand. Diversity and logistics are factors as well. The US has the most advanced military tech ever. More so that China. Are we bombing China? No. Were using drones to bomb some people in the middle east but not on a war type scale. China has some corrupt leaders thats for sure. But this isnt unique to only China…
Looks like Tesla will be lucky if they are producing 4million cars a year in 2030 as Elon does not care anymore about cars as he has put all his efforts in the Robot, Auto pilot which is already 8 years late according to Elons prediction and his now 6 other companies.
When this video was published the EV world production was 10 million, in 2023 its 40 Million, so the percentage of marketshare is not as important as the total of EV produced by year
You rock! You’ve become an ideal unbiased source of news about the alternative energy (specifically electric vehicles) economic sector. This is what TH-cam is supposed to be about !!!
Of course he can be unbiased. He's vlogging from Australia. There's no local car market to protect. This is a man with no relatives or industry or country to protect. An actual free market economy.
A few comments: - The limiting factor for any of these companies is battery production. I'm not convinced that GM or Ford have sufficient or adequate plans to secure their supply. They also have some huge cashflow and debt problems. They need to pivot to produce EVs at a level that will satisfy the market but also with enough margin to pay down their debt and keep the lights on. Right now I'm not sure that the can do this - The Chinese manufacturers will undoubtably make the largest *number* of EV's but how many of those are destined for export remains to be seen. A bunch of the manufacturers that you've listed there have had attempts at export before and the results haven't been great. The cars were cheap and had abysmally bad crash test performance - in fact the Chery J11 has the honour of the worst performing ANCAP safety rating ever tested with 2 stars and 0 out of 36 for pedestrian ratings. Other cars like the Wulang Mini-EV simply wouldn't pass many local safety requirements. - Along with my point above, the volumes of cars produced and sold doesn't really mean that much if the profitability from those cars is low. It could easily be a lot like the smartphone market, where Apple take ~20% of the total market but 80% of the profits. This doesn't mean that the other companies don't survive but will make it much harder for them to innovate than say a Tesla who have a cash printing machine in each of their factories. Once again, this will make it extremely hard for other companies like Renault or Toyota/Mitusbishi etc to attract investment and survive. - BYD has a great advantage and could be very successful but will really need to ramp up their software and customer service across the board to get acceptance. You mention in the video that "you'd be crazy to buy the Camry" compared to one of the Chinese cars, but this ignores a major component, local support. It's a much bigger risk to buy a car without a proper service support structure if you live outside of the major metropolitan areas. What would be a routine failure/repair could become a logistical nightmare for the owner. For example, imagine a simple problem like a broken window regulator, but you live in Dubbo and the only repair centre is in Sydney. A mate of mine has 22kWh of BYD batteries running his house. There is a combination of software and hardware issues with the system that makes it unstable (shutting down solar production etc) and BYD have been unable to fix it for the last 2 years. Customer service: non existent. He wishes he never bothered and should've bought a powerwall. Software is a major part of any successful EV and will be even more important going forward. This represents a challenge for all of the manufacturers and will play an ever increasing part of the puzzle.
@@Coltn3125 Having "an" LFP battery doesn't necessarily guarantee success. Other manufacturers (GM?) are still trying to build factories for what I presume are "high performance" cells (if their spiel is to be believed) Few, (bar Tesla) have produced compelling vehicles with LFP technology. Now, the combination of LifePo4 chemistry and the 4680 firm factor........ THAT'S interesting.
@@rogerstarkey5390 The biggest factor is BYD in their business core are battery company (BYD is 4th largest battery manufacture). So they able to mass produce their own car battery, Since they produce their own battery and LFP battery is cheaper than regular battery, Their car are cheaper than the competitor like tesla
You can’t be more wrong. They can leverage their investments in the startups like Lyft, cruise, brightdrop, rivian(ford) etc, those investments can bring in 100s of billions of investments if they were to go public and gm/ford chose to divest . Also GM is generating $14 billion yearly profits and it has more than enough to reinvest and also it has more profits than Tesla at the moment. GM is at the forefront than any other manufacturer(in-house battery tech, software and self driving) other than Tesla and already pledged $35 billion of investment in next 5 years. Also GM will be first manufacturer who will get the EV car under $30k because of their ultium cell chemistry and supply chain efficiencies, it is rumored it will be the cheapest (
The limiting factor is the power grid. No one is building power plants in any great number and many areas are beginning to suffer from brown out and even black outs (china, the eu, california, etc.). How are vehicles going to be charged when we don't even have the capacity to run our basics (lights, refrigeration, home electronics).
Charting exponential trajectory seems a bit arbitrary. The underlying fundamentals of the market are going to drive yearly sales. Also as the market becomes more saturated with EVs, there will be a percentage of customers who will hold out with their ICE vehicle preference.
I think there is an over reliance of incomplete data in making a prediction 9 years out. Tesla could have the manufacturing capacity, but the bottom line is once there are plenty of BEV models on the market, no one is buying a vehicle because of how many that company can make. People buy what they like, and I could point to Kia and Hyundai and say they have an advantage right now because they have some really NICE models on the market in the same price point as Tesla, or a little more, to where I'd rather buy those over Tesla. I have no skin in the game and am looking at this from as an outsider and without bias towards these companies. When I buy a BEV, if I do because I might not even buy a car, I'll be in the Philippines and will probably buy an economy car and right now it's only BYD that has something I would actually buy right now. These companies have about 4 years to put out something in the price range I want to pay and I don't think most of these companies can do that, and I don't know how much change there'll be by 2030, and I think if a company can do it other than Chinese makers, it will probably be Toyota or VW, possibly Ford. I'm skeptical that Tesla will unless they change their business model pretty quickly. Right now they're building to maximize profit. I understand this from a growth perspective but if they don't shift down to a vehicle in the low 20 thousands USD and another in the 15 - 20 thousand USD range, that will be wide open for Chinese companies to make a killing and I see Toyota getting into that market for sure, just like they do with ICE.
Sam, you tireless Viking. This is an amazing amount of information. Gathering and double checking MUST have been tedious. But to then log it all into a spreadsheet showing the actual relationships between car makers and their sales. You ROCK (oops, that may be copyrighted). THANK YOU.
It's hard to imagine that Nio will not introduce better value models to compete with Xpeng, Tesla etc. I think Lucid will try to do the same. I believe that Nio would have a much better chance of succeeding at that compared to Lucid.
@@simonbarrett9568 I think that's your Chinese bias. You are Chinese, right? Nio won't even sell in America for a good while! Nio will first try to make it in Europe, and start in Norway. If that goes successfully, which I doubt it will, it will try to expand to other European countries, and then America. They have to get repair shops going, make sure there are parts available, and the biggest problem Nio will have is the 25% tariff in America for Chinese cars! They will go where there is no tariff first.
If it sells well in Europe they could build a factory there and export to us, no tariffs, also quality control in China seems to surpass that in America, Europe has surpassed America for decades in build quality
It’s interesting that despite the meteoric growth that Tesla is experiencing they will continually lose market share and all the while becoming the world’s largest vehicle manufacturer. There is massive complacency in the US with the EV market variously described as minuscule or insignificant as it has only 4% share. However, as your example of exponential growth illustrates, by 2026 over half the cars sold in the US will be EVs and Tesla is uniquely placed to take the lions share. The doubly whammy facing legacy car makers is the loss of revenue from ICE vehicles combined with the heavy debt burden they are carrying. Who will lend the huge amounts of capital needed to help failing but ‘leading’ companies make the transition to EV manufacturing
It's very easy to produce a graph, but reality doesn't necessarily follow. Switching to 50% of all new cars sold to be EVs in the USA by 2026 is a pipe dream - the power network won't support it, for a start. China's already suffering from rolling blackouts and it's probably going to continue to do so for the next year or two. Few other major countries around the world could support more than 20% of their transportation being EVs right now. For 95% of all new cars sold to be EVs by 2030 is completely unrealistic as well. MAYBE we'll see 80% - 90% of new car sales being EVs by 2040, but it's hard to predict that far ahead.
They have been through worse and survived. If they improve manufacturing and supply a decent ev , it does not have to be a teslakiller as big auto will sell a car that people will see as just good enough for them and ignore the highly overpriced tesla especially when the cheap Ford vw Nissan Toyota etc will outsell tesla just due to build quality
You don't understand Chinese thinking. China welcomed Tesla to China during the hottest days of Trump's trade war. Being friendly is a traditional Chinese way of fighting a war.
Globalism is collapsing now. Trading will become regional instead. China’s position as the manufacturing capital of the world is over. Most American companies like Apple and nike are aggressively exiting mainland China. America’s largest trading partners is and will be Mexico and Canada. Tesla is smart because they have production facilities on every continent and look at the world market regionally. If China shuts them down Elon will move the Shanghai factory to India. Eventually Mexico will be the most productive factory for Tesla… all divisions.
@@G41251 If you're selling vehicles globally, it's cheaper to have a factory in the same area region/country. It's not just in case China drops the political hammer.
It is...but I still can't help but disagree with a number of his predictions. He thinks the US government will bail out GM and Ford. I disagree. Tesla will take over the USA and support for the legacy industry will collapse. That is the American way. They are far more interested in the next big thing, whatever that is, than supporting "legacy" industry in the name of social stability. Conversely, there will be virtually unlimited government support for various automakers in Europe and Asia.....in the name of social stability. Japan and Germany are both in big trouble. The auto sectors in those countries are simply too big to fail. Watch the government coffers open up in Germany in particular. Germany will nearly bankrupt itself trying to save its auto sector. Japan will bankrupt itself.
@@tRav285 Is it really that black and white, or does it take both? Gov subsidy/leadership (or sabotage) goes a long way in influencing who the winners are. e.g. Biden is playing a massive part in Ford and GM's electric renaissance but it could be flipped on its head by Trump '24, who may care less about electric cars/environment.
@@kenshin198406 I think its fundamentally wrong for the government to interfere either way. They end up propping up losers and holding back winners. Its all BS anyway they also give 5 Trillion a year to the fossil fuel industry.
First let me say that you are wrong! I would willingly listen to you for an hour! You actually have insight into things I want to know, unlike some other channels I have watched. Well done for your content and commentary. Now some questions, as I recently saw something concerning the sales of electric cars in China, namely that they are being sold in great numbers to „car sharing“ or taxi firms, but in reality they are being parked somewhere and left to rot. It’s a scam to steal from the government. So, how does this affect the numbers in terms of cars actually on the streets? What will be the affect on the carmakers if this scam unravels? Are large numbers of the Car sales in China only to wash money? Keep up the great content, and I will keep watching. Even over an hour.
Exponential growth cannot happen indefinitely. Adoption of EVs will follow an S-curve, like all other technologies. Somewhere before 80% EVs, the curve will start to level off with a long tail towards 100%.
Not necessarily. I mean, yes, it will be an S curve. But the tail towards 100% doesn’t need to be long - look at Norway, now close to 100%. Also, once a large enough proportion of vehicles are EVs, gas stations start to fail and close, and range anxiety is an ICE issue. After that ICE vehicles become novelty products, like horses, owned by enthusiasts for track days and not serious day to day transport.
Nice statistics for the present situation, but that is all about it..There are too many unknown variables in the equation - emergence and adoption of new technologies, politics, corporate mergers, business decisions that will take place in the next 9 years ( and neither you, nor anyone else knows them), etc. The only think we know is that the EV market is going to grow rapidly and the ICE will shrink. But nothing more.
Love your videos. FYI I polled my employees and 0 % have a BEV. Two 2 have Hybrids. Also zero plan to buy a BEV, but 2 are looking at a plug hybrid. People's taste in cars sometimes don't track logic. I think there will be a lot of BEVs by 2030, but not 100%. ICE, especially used vehicles, will hang around for a while longer. Especially in the $20,000 to $30,000 range.
"people's taste doesn't track logic". That's a pretty wide statement as "logic" is a lost art in today's society and population of those living in it. Logic to some has a completely different meaning with this subject. Myself. I have quite large street vehicle that is likely one of the largest available with Chevrolet and Ford having the same size, all the largest in size vehicles available in the use of common sense/logic in the application usage. Those of us with these 23foot long, 8 foot wide+ Diesel Dual rear wheel, 8 foot beds and crew cab/4 door trucks in the 350 or 3500 models will never think about the price of the EV vehicles out of the lack of desire of needing to know. There is no and will be no electric vehicle available to have the ability to perform the task of said vehicles. The largest part of the EV possible solution for the application I have to, HAVE TO have my diesel large truck for, the battery possiblity has not been invented as of yet. The range of anything today to tow a 25,000 pound trailer/5th wheel would have a range in the double digit miles, not the 400-500 mile range of our diesel pick up trucks available. By 2030 Chevy, Ford and Ram will still be quite strong and profitable corporations with or without selling any small, 4 or 6 cylinder model vehicles. WIl they have to add EV to their line up, yes in my opinion. Otherwise they will loss from the competition of the EV sellers. Still, regardless... not everyone will be sucked into the idea they need an EV. Not everyone has been convinced of the need of such a vehicle. I've spent some time in other countries around this world and I can assure you that America is the ONLY country with this "green technology" brainwashed mindset. Singapore, Philipines, Middle east (Baharain), along with the other surrounding areas in the middle east area, Mexico, Africa and the other areas I've conducted business do not care of the "green idea" what so ever. In the Middle east along with Phillipines and Mexico are only aware their vehicles are running by the smoke coming out of the tailpipe. In baharain I saw only a small handful of the vehicles on the road that did not spew smoke from the rear of their vehicles. America is one of very few other countries that are concerned about this "Global Warming" that had started during the Ice Age regardless. Japan is another. I can't speak for the east coast continents.
@@chrischapman276 it's a pretty stong statement that EV's will never be able to compete in the 3500 dually diesel marketplace. Already by next year Tesla will be delivering a cybertruck that will blow away all 3500 series trucks as far as performance while delivering a 500 mile range. It's not unreasonable to think that in 5 years time and definitely by 2030 that 1000 mile range trucks can be offered with the ability to charge that massive battery in similar times it takes to charge a 350 mile range battery today. Most 3500 truck owners aren't putting 1000+ miles a day on their trucks and being able to charge at home or their business negates any range concerns for the vast majority of buyers. Today, even at sky high California energy rates the cost to "fill up" an electric truck vs. a 3500 series truck is 1/3rd of the price of diesel. In other areas with electricity costing 1/3rd of California rates the numbers get even more dismal for ICE vehicles. These cost savings won't be lost on business owners. Electric trucks can also power a jobsite with ease compared to lugging a generator and paying for even more gas. What about space utilization? Electric vehicles can simply pack more stuff in the same length vehicle. It's not unreasonable to think of a 23' electric truck with a 12' bed and seating for 5. Surely a 50% increase in cargo space could be quite useful. What do you think the cost of diesel is going to do in the next 5-8 years? Most likely it's going up and I won't be surprised to see $10/gal by 2030. Never is a pretty strong statement. Not only do I beleive electric will make current 3500 series trucks (including future generations) dumb by 2030, I think they will surpass them in marketshare. Do you really believe in 2040, or 2050 diesel 3500 trucks will be relevant? You did say never.
@@Ry-lx2kl You've made a very good and likely truthful statement and please pardon my ignorance in this matter. (That took a lot out of my pride to write! lol) Thinking about what you said about the likelyness of distance possibility and charging concept with our new Fulltime RV lifestyle the wife insisted on before we're dead and the idea of driving any longer than 500 miles is ridiculous especially now that I pull a 43 1/2 foot long, 18,000 pound trailer around these highways I've even informed her that it's going to be in the 300 mile range anyway! One of a few concerns I have about this concept though is, after just paying $86,000 for the new dually diesel truck I just bought is the price they're going to be set at?.... Let's face it, they aren't going to be in the $80K range to purchase one. Then the batteries..... I've already heard the horror stories of the price to replace them in the mere small cars and then what are we going to do with all that Lithium from the used and worn out batteries? We can't rebuild them like this Duramax or the Cummins I just got rid of. So where do all these batteries end up at? Can't just throw them in some land fill being the hazardous material. I think that last concern is the same as all us that just don't feel all warm and fuzzy about the new EV concept. Imagine the eventual collection of Lithium batteries at some future point of this earth we are trying to save with all going electric and abolishing any type of internal combustion vehicles. Where are these worthless batteries going to be thrown to eventually? Serious question on this subject.... Hell, I"ve got lithium batteries on my coach after replacing the still good lead cell batteries while I'm upgrading my solar set up to run more than the residential fridge and to include running the AC units on this rig. All this stuff is going to have to be disposed of one way or another. Maybe send them to another planet to let that planet worry about saving itself one day? EV's are great for some and just another concern as this government creates another problem while believing it's saving us from mother nature and this "global warming" BS they've fed so many people. After all.... hasn't global warming been going on since the ICE AGE? Another subject another time.
I know this was about EVs, so Toyota was justifiably left off the list. They may change their ways when forced to survive. We'll see how the next few years go.
Toyota, at this point, looks like a laggard. They don't appear to be taking the EV shift seriously. Perhaps they can pull a rabbit out of the hat with effective and cheaper solid-state batteries. But as of now, they just look like they are just falling behind. The hybrids they are offering are starting to look like yesterday's newspaper.
Their last hope lies in people who live in remote areas and would switch to hybrids. If hybrid range increases significantly in the next few years, it could become a viable option where chargers are few and far between.
What are you talking about with saying that Hyundai/Kia haven't committed to EVs? Ioniq 5, Ioniq 3, EV4, EV6, EV7, EV9. From the launch of the EGMP platform a year or so ago, to the vehicles built on that platform that are starting to come available now, to their commitment of 7 new EV models on the market by 2027 and they're working on a partnership to launch their own EV charging network. From where I'm sitting, they seem far more committed to EVs than the likes of Ford and GM. I think you may be underestimating them.
If full self driving happens your sales numbers may be way off. Tesla sales could fall WAY down if they stop selling cars to people, and in stead start offering cars as a service.
I live in a mostly middle-class neighborhood in the US. I'm noticing more and more Mustang MachE's parked next to houses. Although I wouldn't buy one myself at the moment (too much bad press about charging station availability and vehicle charging problems), I agree with you that Ford could very likely come out of the transition to EV's better than other legacy automakers.
What charging probelms ? Most ev charging is done at home. The average daily commute in the USA is only 30miles, means that the average commuter can charge their Tesla only once a week when they are out shopping if they cannot charge at home. Those who charge at home can replenish that 30 miles in less than 4 hours with a 240v outlet, or, less than 1hr with a 9kw charger installed. What were those charging problems you speak of ?
@@nordic5490 I've owned a 2014 BMW i3 for 5.5 years, I do 99% of charging at home. But my i3's range is limited to about 140 miles (it has the gasoline range extender), so I never take it on long trips. The MachE however is supposed to be able to travel long distances. Two TH-cam videos I've seen about it, one by a reviewer who drove one from Colorado to California, another about a test from New York City to Niagara Falls and back, both talked about how charging stations in key locations (obviously not Tesla superchargers) were either broken or malfunctioning, or the on-board charger in the car possibly wasn't working. It's enough bad press to make me skeptical at this time of buying a MachE for long-distance trips. They're obviously still working the bugs out.
No issues with D/C fast charging in Southern California. I have taken my MME on numerous trips from Los Angeles to San Francisco and to Pheonix and have yet to encounter an issue with D/C fast charging at electrify America. I own a Tesla model 3 as well, however the Mach E is now my preferred road tripper.
Sandy Munro and 30 of his engineers have been spending 3 to 4 months a year teaching EV manufacturers the secrets of EV design. More importantly, they've been teaching them best manufacturing practices so their production techniques are the best in the industry with the exception of Tesla. Next step? Some Chinese manufacturers licence Tesla technology, from the factory floor through operating systems to FSD. Look at Tesla's mission statement again. It's all about getting to an EV world, and if it's the Chinese industry that's going to make this happen, so be it.
May be, may be not cause first strong competitors are beating back on the Tesla market share which is basicly a model 3 company considering that model y shares the base. Model S versus Mercedes EQS ? Even the range of the EQS is now better, charging speed to and not to talk about quality and service network that Tesla is still lacking for a long time. And Tesla still can not repair a car after crash, spare parts are missing like a fender that took 2 months to arrive. I can get a Mercedes S class or Mercedes E 500 fender from 1990 even in 3 days. Same for other parts. Not cheap, but tesla parts are not cheap either but they feel like being cheap produced. I drove and owned all cars from small Smart for 2 coupe to SL 600 but also E-GOLF and others, but right now I prefer the long range Diesel and the EV for the usual 150 km range cause electricity prices are exploding in europe.
@@typxxilps Look at Tesla's profitability. They're the newcomer in the marketplace, and they have all the handicaps that newcomers have. It's incredible that they can outsell a 100-year-old automaker with anything they make. Where is Daimler's charging network? Tesla have more chargers built in Germany than any combination of any EV makers including the German government! Tesla had built everything themselves. They are contained environment where they control every aspect of the environment. The German Auto industry acknowledges that Tesla can build cars vastly more efficiently and faster than any German manufacturer. Elon has a soft spot for Daimler because without them, Tesla would not have survived past 2008. The survival of the German Auto industry depends on Tesla. I expect to see all of them licensing Tesla technology before the end of 2022. There is no way they can invent manufacturing environments fast enough to beat the Chinese, who are already planning to release electric vehicles in Germany in 2022.
Nio's battery swap is already paying off. They have a cheaper model coming soon under a different brand name. Like the stock, it is usually undervalued.
Interesting that you mentioned " the world reserve currency " . You know, the reserve currency is such because of middle east oil. But what happens when the middle east oil sales drop down significantly, due to decreased oil demand with all of these electric vehicles being sold ? If the Us government is pushing e.v. sales too, it says to me that they have been planning a change. I wonder what change they have in mind ?
Nio sold 160k vehicles in 2023 . With sales going down in 1st half of 2024 they have narrowly skirted going into bankruptcy. They are not profitable and their profit margin per vehicle has come down from 20% down to 9% due to price wars. Nio stock is at $5 vs. $56 at its peak .. So it doesn't look good over two years later.. Byd has grown to become the number one in EV car sales in 2023 with their very low cost cars and Tesla was number one until 2nd half of 2023
Because instead of churning out viable EV's which people might *want* to buy, they come up with a stupid and pointless concept for a pseudo "manual" gearbox for an electric car they aren't even producing!
I believe it is Lucid's plan to bring cheaper vehicles eventually, whether they can or not remains to be seen. I'd be surprised if any of the cars even Rivian are not going to to attempt to have lower cost vehicles down the road, which if they can figure it out then that would definitely raise their potential of car sales.
Fascinating insights into the world of electric car manufacturing. The one issue that concerns me is supplying the electricity to recharge those vehicles. The most powerful carbon-neutral generation technology is nuclear and here France has invested heavily, but Germany is still burning brown coal and even decommissioining nuclear power plants. Where I live in Switzerland we are lucky to have 65% hydro-electric production but it still doesn't meet demand. Despite the enthusiasts, wind has a hard time in Switzerland because of conservationists or other inconveniences and solar generation is hardly being encouraged by the government. So we import electricity from Germany where it is generated with coal. (The German wind turbines in the north & North Sea can't bring the supply to the south where it is needed). So where will the EXTRA SUPPLY come from? All the best, Rob in Switzerland
I think there is a bit of room on the southern drops of the Alps to make the missing electricity in winter. Trials are going in and panels there are steep enough to drop the snow, produce good power due to the low internal resistance in the cold. Still the need for batteries will prove who will win and Tesla got it well set up. Hopefully the stinking ICE engines can be recycled in Africa!
@@LawpickingLocksmith Can you be more specific? Where can I look this up? I can't believe this will make a significant contribution. Especially in winter because of the short days and statistically overcast weather. Switzerland is facing energy shortages already with a tiny proportion of EVs, this can't improve with a greater EV fleet. IMHO carbon-neutral nuclear is the only way to go but the unwashed and uneducated want to decommission them after Fukushima instead of studying the solution.
I think NIO is going to do a little bit better, maybe something between 1 and 2 millions... they are one of the first that came to Europe. Also some traditional big automakers like Honda, Toyota, Mercedes etc will keep at least 500.000 pre year for sure.
Nio only targeting to capture the niche market(coming cars would be more luxurious & get more expensive) so their sales would not be skyrocketing but profit margin would be pretty impressive.
@@sparkysho-ze7nmNo they will unfortunately not. Water has chemical formula, H2O, indicates that each of its molecules contains one oxygen and two hydrogen atoms. So if you mean by "water battery" hydrogen so no. When people understand that to MAKE hydrogen you need huge amount of energy to take out H from the water. Were is that energy coming from? Solar, wind, nuclear, coal or oil? So you see we must see the whole energy consumption and enveriomental impact. Hydrogen is not something you freely pump up from the ground like you do with raw oil that turns into gasoline, distillates such as diesel fuel and heating oil, jet fuel, petrochemical feedstocks, waxes, lubricating oils, and asphalt. 😂 But unfortunately everyone is just looking at what comes out from the car.. Water.. And don't care if the coal power plant that supply the energy is provide in the energy to extract H from H²O. So we just moved the exhaust pipe from the car to the power plant.. Out of sight out of mind. 😅 And that hydrogen Engine and usage has been known for a very LONG TIME nothing new at all. "The history of vehicles running on hydrogen dates back to 1807 when Swiss inventor Francois Isaac de Rivaz created the first four-wheel vehicle powered by hydrogen and oxygen. Many companies founded after the 1970s oil crisis focused on hydrogen cell technology as a clean, renewable source of energy." Then we need to build the infrastructure for that! 😅
Toyota actually is making uturn. before Toyota is not so interested on making a electric car. instead its concetrate is on highbrid and hydrogen. but what happens is that car consumer are more likely to inovation new tech. that is why Toyota was force to make its own BEV cause that are lossing sales. that was a very big mistake done by Toyota.
Time flies… and car company come and go… In this historic posted assessment of data as listed in this video in 2020/2021 … lots has definitely changed! As of now in 2023/24 we are needing an updated projection for 2030 please SAM. Please recast this chart. Thanks for all of your hard work Sam. May your wife and you too heal fast / and successfully! My guess is it could actually be BYD / Tesla #2? Will there be a VW leader role in the top 4? Or will it be Hyundai/ Kia? Will GM VW and Toyota even survive? Lucid? Rivian? as we know them now … as the “automotive bloodbath” rolls forward… it will be interesting!
Hybrids do still make sense for many people, such as: Those in apartments with no charging infrastructure (the demographic majority in many parts of the world); Those who make medium-to-long journeys with tight scheduling (eg, I was a gigging musician); Those whose finances dictate buying used vehicles, etc, etc.
Ford and GM? Yes they'll probably still be propped up by their government as you said. But I think they'll be much lower on the list making mediocre electric cars and various trucks.
I disagree, because of Tesla's warranty on there cars i dont think they will be number 1,i think it will be a close call between Hyundai or Toyota or even Honda.
The problem with EV, there are plenty of developing countries that have poor electric supply. Blackout is regular, and there is hardly any plan to develop solar or wind power. They still focusing on reliably supplying electricity to their respective market. It will take more time for them to catch up.
Sure, the grid in many developing countries is not up to scratch. Neither are there roads for ICE. They' are getting the grid fixed before the roads though - through wind and solar because that is now cheapest.
According to a study by McKinsey & Co.’s 2024 Mobility Consumer Pulse, they found that 46 percent of EV owners in the United States want to revert back to ICE due to inadequate charging infrastructure. Congress provided $5 billion grant for charging stations in 2021. So far, less than 183,000 were built! Where did the money go?
people don't buy hybrid to burn gas, but to have an insurance. this means that hybrids are not necessarily dirtier. for some parts of the world where charging options are limited, i think hybrids make sense.
The worldwide market share analyses DOES NOT tell the whole story. TESLA has the monopoly in the USA market while NON of the Chinese EV WAS allowed to that market, however, the TESLA was and still is manufactured in CHINA and sold in CHINA, and permitted to be purchased in China with Chinese givernment tax cedits and also EXPORTED from China to other southeast Asian countries. You got the picture?
The big disruptor will be when Chinese auto manufacturers can sell cheap reliable cars in the USA, why Elon is doing everything to stop any competition, and Trump Tarrifs. Yet competition is what brings prices down as well as increasing reliability.
Sam what an awesome video. This is going to come as a shock to Joe Bidden and Mary Barra. (If only they had access to TH-cam.) Many thanks for the effort you put into your videos, most of the world has no idea of the disruption coming in the next 9-years. As Tesla has discovered it takes years to build a new car factory in Germany. The number of factories dedicated to the production of EV's is going to be the decider. Tesla appear to be much further ahead than some of their competitors. I would guess starting from scratch will be much easier than decommissioning an old ICE factory and the re-equipping that. My guess is long before 2030 we will be able to see who the winners will be by 2030. Once you fall behind the key players in any market you end up lacking the cash to catch-up. By 2026 the winners will be emerging. That is when the consolidations will start in an attempt to catch the market leaders.
Good analysis. I know though that with regard to Ford there's a large part of their debt from their financing arm "Ford Credit" -- that is to say that it's money that is coming back to them and doesn't really have much to do with their operations debt. Some other automakers are similarly seeming to have a high debt-load, but it's deceptive because of their internal financing groups debt -- which is generally only looked at as a lump sum rather than breaking it out. I'm not sure how many automakers have a similarly deceptive debt picture.
I wouldn't rule out that ICE cars will still have a place in 2030 because you cannot unconsider popular demand and politician turnarounds. The only way is that by bumping up gas prices and ecotaxes on registration people will want to get rid of ICE and not by enviromental or technical prowness of the evs.
If the US government had just a few brain cells that weren’t owned by lobbyists, they might not be in this situation as badly. Will making unions mandatory help? Will making GM the head of electrification instead of Tesla be more effective? Lobbyist’s money was on parade.
BYD make buses, so can't see them going away any time soon. They share some of the 421,000 unit market currently in China, and they will likely come to many other countries, and developing countries in time.
I enjoy all the Electric Viking episodes and have been a subscriber for a few months now. Fantastic job on the reporting. I would like to see more of the offerings from China coming out in 2022 and 2023. You make some bold projections for 2030 about the number of EV cars being sold, but what about the supply of electricity? The year 2030 projection has plenty of EV cars and assumes a charging infrastructure, but how much electricity can be produced for the increased demand of all the EV cars? It would be interesting for you to calculate the reduction in petrol consumption versus the increased kwh demand by country. How much CO2 will be eliminated or created by the conversion to EV cars? Can each country support the increased recharging demand. In the US California and Texas suffered brownouts of limited to no available electricity for normal everyday use. What will that mean for the EV plug in cars?
Renewable intermitent elect generation is a very fast and cheap build comodity. Eg wind generation now about 1/2 the cost per nameplate kw capacity. Intermitent is acceptable for charging batteries provided charge station are always available, eg at homes/apts and at work (or at robotaxi depots).
CIRCA MAY 32, 2028 McDonald's Eastern Region welcomes Mary Barra as the new District Manager, Detroit area. Barra spend years at GM before joining the Golden Arches
Love this episode. My only problem with your projection is that Tesla cars are not for most people, most people all over the world simply can’t afford it. I am sure there will be lots lots more lower end EV being sold than high end cars like Tesla.
Hopefully Tesla will start to make their 25k car in 2023, and make enough of them by 2025. And crossing my fingers that Tesla will do a 15k car in 2026. The future looks great! 😊
That's why in 2030 most cars sold around the world will be Chinese. Tesla and VW will be profitable because they are the top end of the market (like Mercedes or Lexus).
First, thank you for making this analysis and sharing it with us. I personally believe the picture might look not completely, but at least a little different. The term EV will be substituted by AV: autonomous vehicle. The electric drive will just be a basic necessity. This changes the picture. 1) Most people in metropolitan areas will not own a car any longer (to expensive, e.g. parking, city toll). 2) Companies with autonomous fleets will not buy mostly cheap cars, but rather more convinient and long lasting cars. Car producers might run their own autonomous fleets, their own insurances, etc. 3) The total number of cars will be significantly smaller than today. Most cars today are running only about 1 hour/day. These AV in 2030 will run 24 hours/day only shortly interrupted by fast-charging. Therefore we need only about 1/20 of the number of cars (or maybe 1/10) of today. We will even more telecommute than today. 3) All these Union-controlled companies, e.g. GM, Ford, VW, etc. will have ceased to exist. Car production in 2030 will be fully automatically performed by robots. 4) Cars will last very long. CONCLUSION: Only very few very large car companies will survive.
@@mrmozart41 That's a good and interesting point. No, the demand will differ. From an economic point of view, might it be cheaper to have a dedicated cost-intensive parking lot for an AV, or keep the AV running in an area with potential customers? I expect there will be waiting areas, e.g. outside airports, train stations, etc., but otherwise, they might keep roaming the streets. AVs also need maintenance, cleaning (especially the inside), recharging. It makes sense to perform those tasks during times of low demand.
@mrmozart41 Drivers and delivery workers will be automated, so AVs will deliver people in the daytime, goods at night. Plus long distance travel will take place at night in sleepers.
China is heading into a debt crisis in the next few years and many of the Chinese auto makers have a large amount of visible debt, as well as potentially large amounts of hidden debt. This won't cause them to crash (the central government will probably prevent that), but could lead a large amount of consolidation into only a few main companies.
I agree just like American automakers a few decades ago. This will allow them to concentrate resources and achieve economies of scale and greater innovation and r & d.
This comment will not age well. Why would anyone want old tech when everyone around are driving around with high tech electric robots. People are followers and move in masses.
I’ll date myself and declare my Engineering Degree from 1985. We learned and progressed from peer reviewed facts. Information today comes from social media and look at the train wrecks it has created. As it pertains to BEV’s, electricity production is not Carbon free (except Norway) and until it is it is social media driving the wrong behaviour to stop Global Warming. Not enough Engineers in Charge is what won’t age well.
Companies like Lucid may be around a while. They are a premium luxury brand. They don't have to sell volume as long as wealthy people see value, prestige, luxury,...)whatever reasons rich people buy cars)...in their cars. Bently doesn't sell many cars every year and their cars take forever to build. So, I think Lucid depends more on acceptance that production volume.
One of the interesting points is that there is a simple assumption that Tesla will be top of the pack in 2030. I’m not a Tesla hater or a Tesla fan-boy. I admire what they’ve done but think that they have some interesting decisions to make n the coming years and the actions they take might impact on their position in 2030. In Europe I’m convinced that the biggest selling vehicles will be small to medium sized cars. Tesla will need the type 2 or A class or whatever if they are going to dominate the European market. The longer they delay in marketing such a car the more opportunities they give legacy car makers or the Chinese to stake their claim. But , will a small Tesla tarnish the brand. At the moment in the UK if you say “my car is a Tesla” it’s a shorthand for “I would have been driving a luxury car like a Mercedes or BMW a few years ago but I have more sense than that now”. Will there still be that implication that you are something special when there is a small Tesla around? I suggest a small model is needed but it’s positioning will need to be managed carefully if it isn’t to damage sales of the 3. Then there is “second album - itis “. How do you keep a minimalistic car up to date? A couple f days ago this channel showed the new Ora large car and the Viking was justifiably impressed with the luxurious interior. As the range, charging times and performance of EVs of a certain size all coalesce at about the same point design is likely to become the most important factor and , maybe, Tesla minimalism won’t be seen as a stand out design in a year or so? In the US I can’t imagine that Ford and GM will just sit back and let the Cybertruck become the default vehicle. Tesla might find it harder to become the dominant force in the pick up market than they have in the sedan world. I’m not saying that Tesla won’t be the number one ( their control of battery supply and their mass production techniques clearly give them a strong position) but I just don’t think that you can assume it’s a given
GM and Ford will not be able to compete with the Cybertruck's specifications but most importantly on margin. The Cybertruck will out spec anything from Legacy and to compete with that GM and Ford will have to make a very expensive vehicle at very low margin.
Just heard on the TV that after 90 years GM is no longer the largest seller of cars in the USA. TOYOTA is now #1. GM & Ford neglected quality foe too many years. My first 3 chevies all had major rushing problems. My 3 new Ford's that I owned all leaked oil onto my driveway before 30k miles while both of my Hondas never leaked a drop of oil.
I noticed you did not include Toyota in your list of major EV producers in 2030. I have to assume that you lumped Toyota with others. FYI Toyota had a net income of $27 billion in their fiscal year ending March 2021. We have already seen how fast VW and Ford have caught up with Tesla in quality of their EV offerings. Toyota will do the same and I believe their EV sales will far exceed Tesla’s by 2030 , and they continue to make huge profits as they get there.
I think there go Hydro not a and not make a lot of EV funny as there not a lot of Platinum in the world you need for Hydro car and the price of platinum will rocket up
Vehicle to grid is awesome progress. Don't think about 1 car at 1 house....think about 1 grid, thousands of cars, thousands of houses. At any given time how many evs are plugged in and ready to help with the back and forth of solar power. Totally solves most problems.
Exactly what I have been thinking about. EVs are only just now reaching production scale to really get the benefit of scale (outside of Tesla of course). What happens when ICE sells as little as EVs do now?
Anybody else watch Engineering Explained? It's amazing how many engineering man-years are put into squeezing 1% more efficiency out of those ICEs. In doing so, they've had to make them extremely complicated with even more parts to go wrong or wear out.
The accelerated pace of technology change (exponential) would lead me to believe that it is almost impossible to predict a 2030 outcome, who knows what things will look like by then - based on technological advancements and innovation (think what the iPod did to the phone industry...). Video is too long for most audiences, consider breaking down reviews on individual suppliers and producing an overarching summary video (10 mins is a good target), that way consumers can pick or choose whether to watch the summary and the independent breakdowns. You should get more views this way and increase your channel stats - much more people will likely want to watch if bite sized.
Si H: Agreed. It's hard enough trying to make such predictions for 2025. And look how quickly things like batteries (just look at LFP progress), automated vehicles, etc. are changing, much less all the companies which will be fighting for EV market share. No disrespect at all to the folks trying to make such predictions -- I just think it's beyond human capacity to even make MEANINGFUL predictions with any detail that far ahead, for something as big and new and volatile as the BEV market.
The Chinese manufacturers are going to have a problem selling high value vehicles in the West with no dealer and service networks, no supply chain for spares, no brand recognition, no long term support history. I firmly believe that they will nearly all need to partner with or buy up existing recognisable brands in the West, like Volvo and and to a small extent MG.
As a Model Y owner I cannot help to think that the ‘Mericans driving huge, over-lifted, soot-belching Diesel trucks will keep the big 3 on life support. They love the noise, smoke and the polluting potential and say “ Ain’t tak’n my truck away, over my dead body!”
Perhaps, but that option will become increasingly expensive as Detroit OEM's truck numbers fall and their only profit is derived there. Pickups priced like Ferrari anyone?
As Len says, numbers WILL decline and as they do economy of scale decreases, si the price/ profit equation becomes "tricky". Add a similar dilemma in the oil industry, increasing fuel prices, or at least making them volatile, which will if course affect the high consumption vehicles more than others. "Loyalty" only extends as far as the wallet will allow.
You say car sales peaked in 2018, and you say China's per capita consumption of cars will continue increasing. Both cannot be true. Tesla is a fine company making fine EVs, but I doubt that it'll produce a quarter of all cars sold in 2030. Many pressures including political pressures resist this level of concentration.
@@rogerstarkey5390 What does "larger than a country" mean? Tesla's market cap is greater than a country's GDP? That compares a stock (market cap) with a flow (GDP). We could compare a country's GDP to Tesla's sales, around $30 billion in 2020, maybe $50 billion this year. That's roughly Tuvalu's GDP now. Tuvalu is an island nation of roughly ten square miles. EVs are coming with a vengeance, much faster than most people predicted only a few years ago, but legacy automakers are beginning to adapt. Only a few months ago, Viking was predicting Ford's bankruptcy. A few years ago, he might have said the same about VW. I doubt that Tesla has tied up the battery supply as thoroughly as Viking imagines. If most cars sold in 2030 will be EVs, the necessary battery production will be orders of magnitude greater than it is now. No one is contracting with Tesla for all of this future battery production now, and even if they did, the contracts are only as good as Tesla's future sales. I have no idea what Rivian will sell in 2030, but "they're all luxury vehicles" is something you could have said about Tesla only a few years ago. I also have no idea what startups that I've never heard of will sell in 2030. Of course, you can pay anything you like for a share of Tesla stock. Good luck to you.
Rise shine and sink... applies for almost everything....Even for car companies, countries, Twitter and so on... nothing is new under the sun. History over and over again.....
The bookshelf in the background is much better than the empty walls. The growth curve will level off as there's a percentage of auto buyers that will refuse to buy an EV. Yes, they might be ignorant but that's just what the American buying public is, 40% Trump Supporters that well, enough said.
I think you are right about the stubbornness of a certain segment of American car buyers, especially pickup trucks. However, I don’t think that it is as high as 40% and also, whatever their numbers, they will not be large enough to be able to sustain the market for refined gasoline or diesel to power their vehicles. As the numbers decrease, economy of scale for refining petroleum (oil) will just continue to drive up the price at the pump. Same will happen for the maintenance and repair costs of those ice pickup trucks. It may take about 2 to 3 years after everyone else but their stubbornness will not be enough to sustain a market for ice vehicles.
In the USA the pickup truck, or ute in Aussie, is king of sales. What do you see happening in that part of the market? I don't see pulling my camper with an electric vehicle at this time. The tow range with my current vehicle is 300 miles. Do you see progression in battery capacity to equal that?
We're on the list for a cyber truck specifically so we can tow with it. Not sure what the tow range will be. Don't even know what we'll tow! But range isn't as important as cost, both to fuel and to maintain. You literally could not give me a tow vehicle with pistons and expect me to use it for that. I'd just sell it and put the money towards the CT.
I am sure there is a suitable ev for you in you future. Ask your self, how long do you drive without taking a break ? 200kms are recommended ? 300kms maximum recommended ? You can recharge during your break, and vehicles will become available to recharge that 300kms in the time it takes you to have a stretch, take a dump, and buy a coffee. Oz longest drive without fuel is the Canning Stock route and 1200km between fuel supplies. Out there, ev is very suited as solar is cheap. Many evs also support vehicle to vehicle charging now. Maybe you will progress to a light weight camper infuture A few drivers will still need ice for a while to come.
A couple times a year we tow to Colorado and Utah from Michigan. A typical day we will cover 1600km. Yes 1000 miles in a day. Drove to Idaho in two days.
suzuki/maruti and hyundai are no1 and no2 in the indian market, maybe if they produce small electric vehicles and if indians somehow get their stuff together then these companies can sell large qtys of small electric cars in india alone in 2030??
20% for "the rest" might be a bit low but is still a lot of the market. India, other existing legacy companies, and startups will need to fight for battery supply contracts. One thing is certain CATL has a great future.
@ 0ops1e Tesla would self-insure. Enough people would switch instantly as it saves money over a car payment and gas, plus there’s no legal liability in a crash. Regulatory matters will be the road block; enough per-mile taxation and they may OK it.
Hyundai just announced an all out EV assault, I'd be tipping they will beat Ford and GM to finish 4th. Toyota..... They may be late to the party and slow to change but my money would be on them with a top 10 finish. They've got huge resources, look for them to make a late charge.
I would be interested in the future of the petrol industry. At some point stations will start to disappear and eventually petrol will become very expensive due to lack of demand. Perception of these tipping points will influence ev sales.
Lots of good information and I think you have a good understanding of electrical car sales in general but I just can’t see the US truck market going completely electric. I guess it’s possible but Americans love trucks and are very willing to spend big to get what they want, 40 -90k no problem. A lot of us are also very stubborn and will do things against our own best interests, unfortunately. The other question I have is where all the battery supply will come from. Hopefully innovation helps a lot and I truly do hope you are correct.
I have to agree about the pickup truck market. The initial offerings are disappointing to people who use a truck as a truck. Anything less than a 6.5' bed is a toy to me, 8' much better. Charging infrastructure is a joke for everything but a Tesla, and even then there is no way to charge without dropping a trailer first. I have asked about snowplow options (I live in the northeast) and received no acknowledgement whatsoever (with the exception of one youtuber that thought I could just weld a plowframe onto a cybertruck - Really?) I would be surprised to see a true electric work truck in the next 10 years. (I'd love to plow snow with an 800 hp cybertruck, though).
Good video. Let me throw in my 2 cents. Volvo alone, within Geely, plans to sell 1,200,000 cars in 2025, half hybrid and half BEV. By 2030 Volvo plans to sell 100% all electric. Maybe 1,500,000 or more. And looking at the Polestar 5 and how stunning it looks, I think Polestar may be a sleeper. I think you might put Geely/Volvo/Polestar/Zeekr at more like 3, maybe 4 million by 2030. Anyway, there's my 2 cents. It's worth every penny.
Rewrite! "Volvo alone (😁) 'plans' to sell as many *FULL* BEV's in 2025 as Tesla produced in the first 3 Quarters of 2021........ " 🤔 Mmmmmm..... Ambition!
@@rogerstarkey5390 Volvo is not vying to be a big company. Maybe bigger than it was before, but Volvo has always been a niche player even though their sales nearly doubled from 2013 to 2019.. Volvo doesn't want to be the biggest.
@@Nightthefirst Volvo already has their battery supply for their BEV plans sewed up with CATL, LG Chem and Northvolt. Northvolt and Volvo are also building a 50 GWh battery plant in Sweden, which should be ready in a couple of years..
Sounds “GREAT”👍‼️ But what’s FSD do when you’re right out of Town, with no lines & the closest Speed Sign is a half hour way⁉️ just notify the Air Bags
Although this review is well organised it’s from a “Asian Pacific American” POV. The EV market is growing exponentially in Europe (in some countries EV sales is more than 30% of all new cars sales - booming petrol prices is helping). And now for a history lesson: Chinese manufacturers will have to produce their products in Europe (its not a maybe, it’s a certain) to avoid tariffs (the same they apply today to any European car export). They will have to offer a much better product for the price that they eventually end up selling in Europe). Renault will not disappear and the same for FIAT (now under the Stelantis group along with Peugeot although most of brands will die - I would say Peugeot, Citroen, FIAT, Chrysler will be keept, the other will disappear ). But for me the biggest stupidity of this video (based only on numbers and statistics) is not knowing that Mercedes is much more than a luxury brand (that it will survive just fine) and completely forgetting their large heavy duty trucks business. Mercedes and BMW already have great EV products to sell right now so I find strange that the author not even acknowledge that). The market is changing on a rapid pace, a lot of brands will die (or be discontinued), the market will consolidate around even bigger groups (more than it is today). The key factor will be the service and not only the car (drivetrain, batteries, software). And big tech companies will get in the game because of “software” essencial for a modern car.
@@benjaminsmith2287 I saw one video of him bashing the new iX just because it’s wasn’t “M-Sport” enough in his bs Australian gauge 🤦♂️😂 like BMW “only” makes sport cars or something. His understanding is severely affected by his geographical insulation. The same when he talks about the Renault Zoe and ignores the fact that for a long long time that was the only electric car in many markets (along side with Nissan Leaf) and that the Zoe project is old, really old!!! 😂
Regarding BMW and Mercedes, I think the point is not that they cannot make EV's, they have some small success already it is rather that they cannot make sufficient money on EV's to be viable and their stranded assets and requirement for new investment will put an end to them.
@@benjaminsmith2287 That's their problem, they only make money on ICE as this revenue source dries up and huge investment in batteries and manufacturing is needed staff need reducing and retraining and software expertise needs hiring (if it can be found). All these things mean they will fail, the Chinese are banging on the door.
Yeah. Toyota is a well run company with a long track record of deliverables. If they say they have solid state batteries it's not a scam. Mind you this doesn't necessarily mean something they have that exists in lab will be able to be scaled up to be cost competitive with non-solid state CATL offerings. Nevertheless, long term I'd bet on solid state. While you can salt them with other elements. there are known physics limitations on maximum theoretical energy density of Lithium. No one knows the maximum theoretical energy density of batteries made with solid state materials but there is good reason to believe it ultimately will be much higher than lithium. .
It'll come from the same places oil refineries get it from. But of course in time the oil refineries will only be using around 20% of the electricity they presently use, which will leave the other 80% in the grid as additional capacity.... In fact the total amount of electricity saved will be even greater, as there will be no need to use it to pump millions of gallons of crude out of the ground, before it even reaches the refineries. Plus many EV owners have solar panels, and generate some of their own electricity.
Electricity comes from numerous sources, Hydro , Wind, Geothermal , tidal Waves , lastly FOSSIL fuels which is not RENEWABLE, I watch movies that show people crossing oceans on SAILBOATS, I think Christopher Columbus was one of them🤔..😂
News from Europe: bmw did not renew the production contract with Dutch VDL for the Mini. The E-Mini is being produced in Oxford, UK. I seem to remember VDL had talks with Rivian to make their SUV but i never heard about it since then. The VDL factory in Born, NL is modern. Lets hope another car producer makes a deal to start production there.
Although the whole idea behind this video is nice, the contained information and also the conclusion is simply up to the creators mind. We all can agree that Tesla will play an important role in the 2030 BEV market, but putting them into first place with twice the amount of its successor is nonsense. This would mean that Tesla is competing on every car market, by country and by segment. The problem with Tesla is, that it is currently hyped a little too much so that people are buying Teslas just to sell them with a profit because of the limited supply. It's pretty similar to the PS5 scalpers. This will change with Giga Texas and Giga Berlin ramping up production. On the mid-term it will hurt the used Tesla market as well as the margin on new Teslas. Although Tesla can afford this easily, it will have an impact on the demand and also growth rate. And let's be honest, future growth will be defined by affordable cars and Teslas are far away from being affordable for the masses. Current growth is based on early adoption from EV enthusiasts who like the idea of electric performance cars, especially when they can get incentives from the government. Incentives won't be there forever, competitors are getting stronger in every segment and the average mass market user does not need a car with 0-62 mph in 4 seconds. In my opinion the actual advantages from Tesla are: - Supercharger network - Free advertising by all those Tesla fanboys - No dealership network (but also no service network in the other hand) - Ultra low time to market (because they simply ship new tech without proper testing and fanboys still accept that) There is still a chance Tesla won't be on the list of automakers in 2030. When they go for the 4680 cells with structural batteries and there is a major issue within the next 5 years, this could result in a mass recall of several hundred thousands or even millions of vehicles.
I think this is as good a guess as anyone and note and confirm your deep research. I am in the same boat, but my 1000’s of hours are split between EVs/Tesla and Crypto/Bitcoin. See what I did there? I like that EV also works for electric viking. I think I need to Patreon you. You have earned it big time.
The Chinese companies will almost certainly consolidate into 3 or 4 like US auto companies did decades ago, to put themselves in a stronger position.
In 2030, the largest auto manucfactures will be Chinese brands and Tesla.
@@rynesweeney I think we should look at the bigger picture first. Like, China is heading into major economic breakdown. Climate change and war is also playing into this.
@@fredguntern.e.4185 climate change will adjust how we live sure, but china is moving faster towards clean energy than any other major power. Chinese EVs in 2021 already are 90% of what a Tesla is. No other car maker is close. Legacy automakers have cars with competitive specs for 2021 that are debuting in 2024 or much later. China is now. 90% of a Tesla for 60% of the price? Its all China.
War wont be anything major. Except for Taiwan, land isnt what anybody wants. Tech and intelligence will be whats fought over. And nobody wants to get into a war with the US. If so it probably would have already happened.
@@rynesweeney As far as war: China just tested a hyper sonic weapon. One US General said the only reason they would want this is to have first strike advantage. As far as clean energy: There is not just thing. Second China is snowballing anyone who thinks they care about the environment. Coal use has actually increased, and China will cheat anyway they can to make it look like the country is a corporate citizen. Remember; the communist party is a criminal enterprise.
@@fredguntern.e.4185 These statements are valid, though they are pieces of the big picture thats being ignored.
China is using more and more energy. The country is so large that they need more coal, solar, wind, whatever energy. Coal increase because its needed. Supply isnt matching demand. Diversity and logistics are factors as well.
The US has the most advanced military tech ever. More so that China. Are we bombing China? No. Were using drones to bomb some people in the middle east but not on a war type scale.
China has some corrupt leaders thats for sure. But this isnt unique to only China…
2 years passed.What you think of your prediction?
Looks like Tesla will be lucky if they are producing 4million cars a year in 2030 as Elon does not care anymore about cars as he has put all his efforts in the Robot, Auto pilot which is already 8 years late according to Elons prediction and his now 6 other companies.
Tesla global market share is now less than 20%.
When this video was published the EV world production was 10 million, in 2023 its 40 Million, so the percentage of marketshare is not as important as the total of EV produced by year
Tesla only sells around 1.7 Million Cars this year,in a 90 Million global carmarket!!
@@SemiDadRemind me, how many US Tesla owners have gone back to ICE?
You rock! You’ve become an ideal unbiased source of news about the alternative energy (specifically electric vehicles) economic sector. This is what TH-cam is supposed to be about !!!
Of course he can be unbiased. He's vlogging from Australia. There's no local car market to protect. This is a man with no relatives or industry or country to protect. An actual free market economy.
I would swap Geely with GM and that would be my prediction. Thanks for the great research and video Viking!!!
GM is almost bankrupt
THe hold their head above water with money coming from their JV's in China
Same for Ford
Sam, you are a hard-working guy and smart as a whip (American expression)! Thank you a bunch for keeping us so well informed about EVs!
You are most welcome💖💖
A few comments:
- The limiting factor for any of these companies is battery production. I'm not convinced that GM or Ford have sufficient or adequate plans to secure their supply. They also have some huge cashflow and debt problems. They need to pivot to produce EVs at a level that will satisfy the market but also with enough margin to pay down their debt and keep the lights on. Right now I'm not sure that the can do this
- The Chinese manufacturers will undoubtably make the largest *number* of EV's but how many of those are destined for export remains to be seen. A bunch of the manufacturers that you've listed there have had attempts at export before and the results haven't been great. The cars were cheap and had abysmally bad crash test performance - in fact the Chery J11 has the honour of the worst performing ANCAP safety rating ever tested with 2 stars and 0 out of 36 for pedestrian ratings. Other cars like the Wulang Mini-EV simply wouldn't pass many local safety requirements.
- Along with my point above, the volumes of cars produced and sold doesn't really mean that much if the profitability from those cars is low. It could easily be a lot like the smartphone market, where Apple take ~20% of the total market but 80% of the profits. This doesn't mean that the other companies don't survive but will make it much harder for them to innovate than say a Tesla who have a cash printing machine in each of their factories. Once again, this will make it extremely hard for other companies like Renault or Toyota/Mitusbishi etc to attract investment and survive.
- BYD has a great advantage and could be very successful but will really need to ramp up their software and customer service across the board to get acceptance. You mention in the video that "you'd be crazy to buy the Camry" compared to one of the Chinese cars, but this ignores a major component, local support. It's a much bigger risk to buy a car without a proper service support structure if you live outside of the major metropolitan areas. What would be a routine failure/repair could become a logistical nightmare for the owner. For example, imagine a simple problem like a broken window regulator, but you live in Dubbo and the only repair centre is in Sydney.
A mate of mine has 22kWh of BYD batteries running his house. There is a combination of software and hardware issues with the system that makes it unstable (shutting down solar production etc) and BYD have been unable to fix it for the last 2 years. Customer service: non existent. He wishes he never bothered and should've bought a powerwall. Software is a major part of any successful EV and will be even more important going forward. This represents a challenge for all of the manufacturers and will play an ever increasing part of the puzzle.
This is largely bypassed with the LFP battery. The pattents open up outside of China next year so we will see them used massively everywhere.
@@Coltn3125
Having "an" LFP battery doesn't necessarily guarantee success.
Other manufacturers (GM?) are still trying to build factories for what I presume are "high performance" cells (if their spiel is to be believed)
Few, (bar Tesla) have produced compelling vehicles with LFP technology.
Now, the combination of LifePo4 chemistry and the 4680 firm factor........ THAT'S interesting.
@@rogerstarkey5390 The biggest factor is BYD in their business core are battery company (BYD is 4th largest battery manufacture). So they able to mass produce their own car battery, Since they produce their own battery and LFP battery is cheaper than regular battery, Their car are cheaper than the competitor like tesla
You can’t be more wrong. They can leverage their investments in the startups like Lyft, cruise, brightdrop, rivian(ford) etc, those investments can bring in 100s of billions of investments if they were to go public and gm/ford chose to divest . Also GM is generating $14 billion yearly profits and it has more than enough to reinvest and also it has more profits than Tesla at the moment. GM is at the forefront than any other manufacturer(in-house battery tech, software and self driving) other than Tesla and already pledged $35 billion of investment in next 5 years. Also GM will be first manufacturer who will get the EV car under $30k because of their ultium cell chemistry and supply chain efficiencies, it is rumored it will be the cheapest (
The limiting factor is the power grid. No one is building power plants in any great number and many areas are beginning to suffer from brown out and even black outs (china, the eu, california, etc.). How are vehicles going to be charged when we don't even have the capacity to run our basics (lights, refrigeration, home electronics).
You have an incredible passion for electric cars backed by amazing efforts and an impartial judgement based on data. Well done!
Charting exponential trajectory seems a bit arbitrary. The underlying fundamentals of the market are going to drive yearly sales. Also as the market becomes more saturated with EVs, there will be a percentage of customers who will hold out with their ICE vehicle preference.
I think there is an over reliance of incomplete data in making a prediction 9 years out. Tesla could have the manufacturing capacity, but the bottom line is once there are plenty of BEV models on the market, no one is buying a vehicle because of how many that company can make. People buy what they like, and I could point to Kia and Hyundai and say they have an advantage right now because they have some really NICE models on the market in the same price point as Tesla, or a little more, to where I'd rather buy those over Tesla. I have no skin in the game and am looking at this from as an outsider and without bias towards these companies.
When I buy a BEV, if I do because I might not even buy a car, I'll be in the Philippines and will probably buy an economy car and right now it's only BYD that has something I would actually buy right now. These companies have about 4 years to put out something in the price range I want to pay and I don't think most of these companies can do that, and I don't know how much change there'll be by 2030, and I think if a company can do it other than Chinese makers, it will probably be Toyota or VW, possibly Ford. I'm skeptical that Tesla will unless they change their business model pretty quickly. Right now they're building to maximize profit. I understand this from a growth perspective but if they don't shift down to a vehicle in the low 20 thousands USD and another in the 15 - 20 thousand USD range, that will be wide open for Chinese companies to make a killing and I see Toyota getting into that market for sure, just like they do with ICE.
Josh, we all know a few people who still use flip phones.
Sam, you tireless Viking. This is an amazing amount of information. Gathering and double checking MUST have been tedious. But to then log it all into a spreadsheet showing the actual relationships between car makers and their sales. You ROCK (oops, that may be copyrighted). THANK YOU.
It's hard to imagine that Nio will not introduce better value models to compete with Xpeng, Tesla etc. I think Lucid will try to do the same. I believe that Nio would have a much better chance of succeeding at that compared to Lucid.
Leave it to Chinese companies with govt subsidies to dominate the EV market in China.
Nio won't sell in any numbers outside China.
@@joeking433 but no one that drive a Tesla and a nio will buy a tesla all people say the nio is a lot better car by a long way
@@simonbarrett9568 I think that's your Chinese bias. You are Chinese, right? Nio won't even sell in America for a good while! Nio will first try to make it in Europe, and start in Norway. If that goes successfully, which I doubt it will, it will try to expand to other European countries, and then America. They have to get repair shops going, make sure there are parts available, and the biggest problem Nio will have is the 25% tariff in America for Chinese cars! They will go where there is no tariff first.
If it sells well in Europe they could build a factory there and export to us, no tariffs, also quality control in China seems to surpass that in America, Europe has surpassed America for decades in build quality
It’s interesting that despite the meteoric growth that Tesla is experiencing they will continually lose market share and all the while becoming the world’s largest vehicle manufacturer. There is massive complacency in the US with the EV market variously described as minuscule or insignificant as it has only 4% share. However, as your example of exponential growth illustrates, by 2026 over half the cars sold in the US will be EVs and Tesla is uniquely placed to take the lions share. The doubly whammy facing legacy car makers is the loss of revenue from ICE vehicles combined with the heavy debt burden they are carrying. Who will lend the huge amounts of capital needed to help failing but ‘leading’ companies make the transition to EV manufacturing
It's very easy to produce a graph, but reality doesn't necessarily follow. Switching to 50% of all new cars sold to be EVs in the USA by 2026 is a pipe dream - the power network won't support it, for a start. China's already suffering from rolling blackouts and it's probably going to continue to do so for the next year or two. Few other major countries around the world could support more than 20% of their transportation being EVs right now. For 95% of all new cars sold to be EVs by 2030 is completely unrealistic as well. MAYBE we'll see 80% - 90% of new car sales being EVs by 2040, but it's hard to predict that far ahead.
They have been through worse and survived. If they improve manufacturing and supply a decent ev , it does not have to be a teslakiller as big auto will sell a car that people will see as just good enough for them and ignore the highly overpriced tesla especially when the cheap Ford vw Nissan Toyota etc will outsell tesla just due to build quality
I get the feeling we are one major international incident away from the Chinese government ordering Tesla to shut down.
I’m surprised car companies,Tesla included, are looking at expanding manufacturing in China with the current political climate.
@@theknifedude1881 While companies like Apple are moving manufacturing to Vietnam and India.
You don't understand Chinese thinking. China welcomed Tesla to China during the hottest days of Trump's trade war. Being friendly is a traditional Chinese way of fighting a war.
Globalism is collapsing now. Trading will become regional instead. China’s position as the manufacturing capital of the world is over. Most American companies like Apple and nike are aggressively exiting mainland China. America’s largest trading partners is and will be Mexico and Canada.
Tesla is smart because they have production facilities on every continent and look at the world market regionally. If China shuts them down Elon will move the Shanghai factory to India. Eventually Mexico will be the most productive factory for Tesla… all divisions.
@@G41251 If you're selling vehicles globally, it's cheaper to have a factory in the same area region/country. It's not just in case China drops the political hammer.
Great analysis. I really like your ability to take in information and look at this industry. Fantastic job!
This report is both detailed, incredibly informed, and quite terrifying, well done!
It is...but I still can't help but disagree with a number of his predictions.
He thinks the US government will bail out GM and Ford. I disagree. Tesla will take over the USA and support for the legacy industry will collapse. That is the American way. They are far more interested in the next big thing, whatever that is, than supporting "legacy" industry in the name of social stability.
Conversely, there will be virtually unlimited government support for various automakers in Europe and Asia.....in the name of social stability.
Japan and Germany are both in big trouble. The auto sectors in those countries are simply too big to fail.
Watch the government coffers open up in Germany in particular. Germany will nearly bankrupt itself trying to save its auto sector.
Japan will bankrupt itself.
Watching your video is inspiring. Only wish our Australian government can get their act together and support green energy and EVs.
Free markets are how to win not government mandates
Change the current Govt and then watch it happen.
@@tRav285 Is it really that black and white, or does it take both? Gov subsidy/leadership (or sabotage) goes a long way in influencing who the winners are. e.g. Biden is playing a massive part in Ford and GM's electric renaissance but it could be flipped on its head by Trump '24, who may care less about electric cars/environment.
@@kenshin198406 I think its fundamentally wrong for the government to interfere either way. They end up propping up losers and holding back winners. Its all BS anyway they also give 5 Trillion a year to the fossil fuel industry.
@@tRav285
So the Aus government proposal to slap a double tax on battery stored energy is good or bad in your view?
Great new background! Thanks for all you do! 👊🏻
First let me say that you are wrong! I would willingly listen to you for an hour! You actually have insight into things I want to know, unlike some other channels I have watched. Well done for your content and commentary. Now some questions, as I recently saw something concerning the sales of electric cars in China, namely that they are being sold in great numbers to „car sharing“ or taxi firms, but in reality they are being parked somewhere and left to rot. It’s a scam to steal from the government. So, how does this affect the numbers in terms of cars actually on the streets? What will be the affect on the carmakers if this scam unravels? Are large numbers of the Car sales in China only to wash money? Keep up the great content, and I will keep watching. Even over an hour.
Exponential growth cannot happen indefinitely. Adoption of EVs will follow an S-curve, like all other technologies. Somewhere before 80% EVs, the curve will start to level off with a long tail towards 100%.
Not necessarily. I mean, yes, it will be an S curve. But the tail towards 100% doesn’t need to be long - look at Norway, now close to 100%. Also, once a large enough proportion of vehicles are EVs, gas stations start to fail and close, and range anxiety is an ICE issue. After that ICE vehicles become novelty products, like horses, owned by enthusiasts for track days and not serious day to day transport.
25th like
@R DOTTIN Yeah. That's what an S-curve looks like.
@R DOTTIN The exponential growth stops in the middle of the S-Curve.
@@jimdetry9420the growth of sales ceases to be exponential but the sales continue to be exponential.
I love the Total Recall book with Arnold on the cover (background)
Nice statistics for the present situation, but that is all about it..There are too many unknown variables in the equation - emergence and adoption of new technologies, politics, corporate mergers, business decisions that will take place in the next 9 years ( and neither you, nor anyone else knows them), etc.
The only think we know is that the EV market is going to grow rapidly and the ICE will shrink. But nothing more.
Love your videos. FYI I polled my employees and 0 % have a BEV. Two 2 have Hybrids. Also zero plan to buy a BEV, but 2 are looking at a plug hybrid. People's taste in cars sometimes don't track logic. I think there will be a lot of BEVs by 2030, but not 100%. ICE, especially used vehicles, will hang around for a while longer. Especially in the $20,000 to $30,000 range.
"people's taste doesn't track logic".
That's a pretty wide statement as "logic" is a lost art in today's society and population of those living in it.
Logic to some has a completely different meaning with this subject.
Myself. I have quite large street vehicle that is likely one of the largest available with Chevrolet and Ford having the same size, all the largest in size vehicles available in the use of common sense/logic in the application usage.
Those of us with these 23foot long, 8 foot wide+ Diesel Dual rear wheel, 8 foot beds and crew cab/4 door trucks in the 350 or 3500 models will never think about the price of the EV vehicles out of the lack of desire of needing to know.
There is no and will be no electric vehicle available to have the ability to perform the task of said vehicles.
The largest part of the EV possible solution for the application I have to, HAVE TO have my diesel large truck for, the battery possiblity has not been invented as of yet. The range of anything today to tow a 25,000 pound trailer/5th wheel would have a range in the double digit miles, not the 400-500 mile range of our diesel pick up trucks available.
By 2030 Chevy, Ford and Ram will still be quite strong and profitable corporations with or without selling any small, 4 or 6 cylinder model vehicles. WIl they have to add EV to their line up, yes in my opinion. Otherwise they will loss from the competition of the EV sellers.
Still, regardless... not everyone will be sucked into the idea they need an EV. Not everyone has been convinced of the need of such a vehicle. I've spent some time in other countries around this world and I can assure you that America is the ONLY country with this "green technology" brainwashed mindset. Singapore, Philipines, Middle east (Baharain), along with the other surrounding areas in the middle east area, Mexico, Africa and the other areas I've conducted business do not care of the "green idea" what so ever. In the Middle east along with Phillipines and Mexico are only aware their vehicles are running by the smoke coming out of the tailpipe. In baharain I saw only a small handful of the vehicles on the road that did not spew smoke from the rear of their vehicles.
America is one of very few other countries that are concerned about this "Global Warming" that had started during the Ice Age regardless. Japan is another. I can't speak for the east coast continents.
@@chrischapman276 it's a pretty stong statement that EV's will never be able to compete in the 3500 dually diesel marketplace. Already by next year Tesla will be delivering a cybertruck that will blow away all 3500 series trucks as far as performance while delivering a 500 mile range. It's not unreasonable to think that in 5 years time and definitely by 2030 that 1000 mile range trucks can be offered with the ability to charge that massive battery in similar times it takes to charge a 350 mile range battery today. Most 3500 truck owners aren't putting 1000+ miles a day on their trucks and being able to charge at home or their business negates any range concerns for the vast majority of buyers. Today, even at sky high California energy rates the cost to "fill up" an electric truck vs. a 3500 series truck is 1/3rd of the price of diesel. In other areas with electricity costing 1/3rd of California rates the numbers get even more dismal for ICE vehicles. These cost savings won't be lost on business owners. Electric trucks can also power a jobsite with ease compared to lugging a generator and paying for even more gas. What about space utilization? Electric vehicles can simply pack more stuff in the same length vehicle. It's not unreasonable to think of a 23' electric truck with a 12' bed and seating for 5. Surely a 50% increase in cargo space could be quite useful. What do you think the cost of diesel is going to do in the next 5-8 years? Most likely it's going up and I won't be surprised to see $10/gal by 2030. Never is a pretty strong statement. Not only do I beleive electric will make current 3500 series trucks (including future generations) dumb by 2030, I think they will surpass them in marketshare. Do you really believe in 2040, or 2050 diesel 3500 trucks will be relevant? You did say never.
@@Ry-lx2kl
You've made a very good and likely truthful statement and please pardon my ignorance in this matter. (That took a lot out of my pride to write! lol)
Thinking about what you said about the likelyness of distance possibility and charging concept with our new Fulltime RV lifestyle the wife insisted on before we're dead and the idea of driving any longer than 500 miles is ridiculous especially now that I pull a 43 1/2 foot long, 18,000 pound trailer around these highways I've even informed her that it's going to be in the 300 mile range anyway!
One of a few concerns I have about this concept though is, after just paying $86,000 for the new dually diesel truck I just bought is the price they're going to be set at?.... Let's face it, they aren't going to be in the $80K range to purchase one.
Then the batteries.....
I've already heard the horror stories of the price to replace them in the mere small cars and then what are we going to do with all that Lithium from the used and worn out batteries? We can't rebuild them like this Duramax or the Cummins I just got rid of. So where do all these batteries end up at? Can't just throw them in some land fill being the hazardous material. I think that last concern is the same as all us that just don't feel all warm and fuzzy about the new EV concept. Imagine the eventual collection of Lithium batteries at some future point of this earth we are trying to save with all going electric and abolishing any type of internal combustion vehicles. Where are these worthless batteries going to be thrown to eventually? Serious question on this subject.... Hell, I"ve got lithium batteries on my coach after replacing the still good lead cell batteries while I'm upgrading my solar set up to run more than the residential fridge and to include running the AC units on this rig. All this stuff is going to have to be disposed of one way or another. Maybe send them to another planet to let that planet worry about saving itself one day?
EV's are great for some and just another concern as this government creates another problem while believing it's saving us from mother nature and this "global warming" BS they've fed so many people. After all.... hasn't global warming been going on since the ICE AGE? Another subject another time.
There's always the problem if you might happen to need a charge in California though......
Do you still hawe same opinion about GM Ford ram?
I know this was about EVs, so Toyota was justifiably left off the list. They may change their ways when forced to survive. We'll see how the next few years go.
Supposedly they’re working on solid state batteries. Will they last long enough as a company to get to production?
Toyota, at this point, looks like a laggard. They don't appear to be taking the EV shift seriously. Perhaps they can pull a rabbit out of the hat with effective and cheaper solid-state batteries. But as of now, they just look like they are just falling behind. The hybrids they are offering are starting to look like yesterday's newspaper.
"Toyota, powered by BYD"
(Possibly OWNED by BYD?)
Their last hope lies in people who live in remote areas and would switch to hybrids. If hybrid range increases significantly in the next few years, it could become a viable option where chargers are few and far between.
@@rogerstarkey5390 Magna will be a major producer of vehicles for corporations that can't do it themselves... :)
You should lower the temp in your dryer, shirts are shrinking a bit :-).
What are you talking about with saying that Hyundai/Kia haven't committed to EVs? Ioniq 5, Ioniq 3, EV4, EV6, EV7, EV9. From the launch of the EGMP platform a year or so ago, to the vehicles built on that platform that are starting to come available now, to their commitment of 7 new EV models on the market by 2027 and they're working on a partnership to launch their own EV charging network. From where I'm sitting, they seem far more committed to EVs than the likes of Ford and GM. I think you may be underestimating them.
Agree, EV’s spreading as fast as smartphone/internet in 10 years
If full self driving happens your sales numbers may be way off. Tesla sales could fall WAY down if they stop selling cars to people, and in stead start offering cars as a service.
I live in a mostly middle-class neighborhood in the US. I'm noticing more and more Mustang MachE's parked next to houses. Although I wouldn't buy one myself at the moment (too much bad press about charging station availability and vehicle charging problems), I agree with you that Ford could very likely come out of the transition to EV's better than other legacy automakers.
What charging probelms ? Most ev charging is done at home. The average daily commute in the USA is only 30miles, means that the average commuter can charge their Tesla only once a week when they are out shopping if they cannot charge at home.
Those who charge at home can replenish that 30 miles in less than 4 hours with a 240v outlet, or, less than 1hr with a 9kw charger installed.
What were those charging problems you speak of ?
@@nordic5490 I've owned a 2014 BMW i3 for 5.5 years, I do 99% of charging at home. But my i3's range is limited to about 140 miles (it has the gasoline range extender), so I never take it on long trips. The MachE however is supposed to be able to travel long distances. Two TH-cam videos I've seen about it, one by a reviewer who drove one from Colorado to California, another about a test from New York City to Niagara Falls and back, both talked about how charging stations in key locations (obviously not Tesla superchargers) were either broken or malfunctioning, or the on-board charger in the car possibly wasn't working. It's enough bad press to make me skeptical at this time of buying a MachE for long-distance trips. They're obviously still working the bugs out.
No issues with D/C fast charging in Southern California. I have taken my MME on numerous trips from Los Angeles to San Francisco and to Pheonix and have yet to encounter an issue with D/C fast charging at electrify America. I own a Tesla model 3 as well, however the Mach E is now my preferred road tripper.
Sandy Munro and 30 of his engineers have been spending 3 to 4 months a year teaching EV manufacturers the secrets of EV design. More importantly, they've been teaching them best manufacturing practices so their production techniques are the best in the industry with the exception of Tesla.
Next step? Some Chinese manufacturers licence Tesla technology, from the factory floor through operating systems to FSD.
Look at Tesla's mission statement again. It's all about getting to an EV world, and if it's the Chinese industry that's going to make this happen, so be it.
May be, may be not cause first strong competitors are beating back on the Tesla market share which is basicly a model 3 company considering that model y shares the base. Model S versus Mercedes EQS ?
Even the range of the EQS is now better, charging speed to and not to talk about quality and service network that Tesla is still lacking for a long time. And Tesla still can not repair a car after crash, spare parts are missing like a fender that took 2 months to arrive. I can get a Mercedes S class or Mercedes E 500 fender from 1990 even in 3 days. Same for other parts. Not cheap, but tesla parts are not cheap either but they feel like being cheap produced.
I drove and owned all cars from small Smart for 2 coupe to SL 600 but also E-GOLF and others, but right now I prefer the long range Diesel and the EV for the usual 150 km range cause electricity prices are exploding in europe.
@@typxxilps Look at Tesla's profitability. They're the newcomer in the marketplace, and they have all the handicaps that newcomers have. It's incredible that they can outsell a 100-year-old automaker with anything they make.
Where is Daimler's charging network? Tesla have more chargers built in Germany than any combination of any EV makers including the German government!
Tesla had built everything themselves. They are contained environment where they control every aspect of the environment. The German Auto industry acknowledges that Tesla can build cars vastly more efficiently and faster than any German manufacturer.
Elon has a soft spot for Daimler because without them, Tesla would not have survived past 2008.
The survival of the German Auto industry depends on Tesla. I expect to see all of them licensing Tesla technology before the end of 2022. There is no way they can invent manufacturing environments fast enough to beat the Chinese, who are already planning to release electric vehicles in Germany in 2022.
Wrong, wrong, Musk will continue to hold his values.
Nio's battery swap is already paying off. They have a cheaper model coming soon under a different brand name. Like the stock, it is usually undervalued.
Interesting that you mentioned
" the world reserve currency " . You know, the reserve currency is such because of middle east oil. But what happens when the middle east oil sales drop down significantly, due to decreased oil demand with all of these electric vehicles being sold ? If the Us government is pushing e.v. sales too, it says to me that they have been planning a change. I wonder what change they have in mind ?
There's no way Nio will be only producing 500K cars in 2030. I believe Nio will hit 500K mark in 2025 if not sooner.
I would think NIO would hit 150 to 200 in 2022 only 500 in 2030?
this is the one part i find off. NIO/Xpeng will be selling a lot more than he indicates
Nio sold 160k vehicles in 2023 . With sales going down in 1st half of 2024 they have narrowly skirted going into bankruptcy. They are not profitable and their profit margin per vehicle has come down from 20% down to 9% due to price wars.
Nio stock is at $5 vs. $56 at its peak ..
So it doesn't look good over two years later..
Byd has grown to become the number one in EV car sales in 2023 with their very low cost cars and Tesla was number one until 2nd half of 2023
Thanks
Current #1 TOYOTA just disappears?
How can that happen?
Because instead of churning out viable EV's which people might *want* to buy, they come up with a stupid and pointless concept for a pseudo "manual" gearbox for an electric car they aren't even producing!
Viking, you rock. This video shows how much work you put in to make it
I believe it is Lucid's plan to bring cheaper vehicles eventually, whether they can or not remains to be seen. I'd be surprised if any of the cars even Rivian are not going to to attempt to have lower cost vehicles down the road, which if they can figure it out then that would definitely raise their potential of car sales.
Lucid have a lot of 'plans'
Fascinating insights into the world of electric car manufacturing. The one issue that concerns me is supplying the electricity to recharge those vehicles. The most powerful carbon-neutral generation technology is nuclear and here France has invested heavily, but Germany is still burning brown coal and even decommissioining nuclear power plants. Where I live in Switzerland we are lucky to have 65% hydro-electric production but it still doesn't meet demand. Despite the enthusiasts, wind has a hard time in Switzerland because of conservationists or other inconveniences and solar generation is hardly being encouraged by the government. So we import electricity from Germany where it is generated with coal. (The German wind turbines in the north & North Sea can't bring the supply to the south where it is needed). So where will the EXTRA SUPPLY come from? All the best, Rob in Switzerland
I think there is a bit of room on the southern drops of the Alps to make the missing electricity in winter. Trials are going in and panels there are steep enough to drop the snow, produce good power due to the low internal resistance in the cold. Still the need for batteries will prove who will win and Tesla got it well set up. Hopefully the stinking ICE engines can be recycled in Africa!
@@LawpickingLocksmith Can you be more specific? Where can I look this up? I can't believe this will make a significant contribution. Especially in winter because of the short days and statistically overcast weather. Switzerland is facing energy shortages already with a tiny proportion of EVs, this can't improve with a greater EV fleet. IMHO carbon-neutral nuclear is the only way to go but the unwashed and uneducated want to decommission them after Fukushima instead of studying the solution.
I think NIO is going to do a little bit better, maybe something between 1 and 2 millions... they are one of the first that came to Europe. Also some traditional big automakers like Honda, Toyota, Mercedes etc will keep at least 500.000 pre year for sure.
Nio only targeting to capture the niche market(coming cars would be more luxurious & get more expensive) so their sales would not be skyrocketing but profit margin would be pretty impressive.
After 2 years what is your updated thoughts on this
Missed Toyota, that's a mistake, if Ford have back tracked on EVs, Toyota has back tracked even more!
Th new Toyota water battery supposed to cccrush entire ev industry
@@sparkysho-ze7nmNo they will unfortunately not.
Water has chemical formula, H2O, indicates that each of its molecules contains one oxygen and two hydrogen atoms.
So if you mean by "water battery" hydrogen so no.
When people understand that to MAKE hydrogen you need huge amount of energy to take out H from the water.
Were is that energy coming from? Solar, wind, nuclear, coal or oil?
So you see we must see the whole energy consumption and enveriomental impact.
Hydrogen is not something you freely pump up from the ground like you do with raw oil that turns into gasoline, distillates such as diesel fuel and heating oil, jet fuel, petrochemical feedstocks, waxes, lubricating oils, and asphalt. 😂
But unfortunately everyone is just looking at what comes out from the car.. Water.. And don't care if the coal power plant that supply the energy is provide in the energy to extract H from H²O.
So we just moved the exhaust pipe from the car to the power plant..
Out of sight out of mind. 😅
And that hydrogen Engine and usage has been known for a very LONG TIME nothing new at all.
"The history of vehicles running on hydrogen dates back to 1807 when Swiss inventor Francois Isaac de Rivaz created the first four-wheel vehicle powered by hydrogen and oxygen.
Many companies founded after the 1970s oil crisis focused on hydrogen cell technology as a clean, renewable source of energy."
Then we need to build the infrastructure for that! 😅
Toyota actually is making uturn. before Toyota is not so interested on making a electric car. instead its concetrate is on highbrid and hydrogen. but what happens is that car consumer are more likely to inovation new tech. that is why Toyota was force to make its own BEV cause that are lossing sales. that was a very big mistake done by Toyota.
@@nurbelen5 yeah, my comment is 2 years old, lots of things have changed in 2 years
Time flies…
and car company come and go…
In this historic posted assessment of data as listed in this video in 2020/2021 … lots has definitely changed!
As of now in
2023/24 we are needing an updated projection for 2030 please SAM.
Please recast this chart.
Thanks for all of your hard work Sam.
May your wife and you too heal fast / and successfully!
My guess is it could actually be BYD / Tesla #2? Will there be a VW leader role in the top 4?
Or will it be Hyundai/ Kia?
Will GM VW and Toyota even survive? Lucid?
Rivian? as we know them now … as the “automotive bloodbath” rolls forward… it will be interesting!
Interesting how Toyota does not break the top 10...I don't see Toyota going quietly into the night. Great presentation - very thought provoking!
me too. they have too many resources to drop out of top 10 in my opinion
Toyota closed the curtains and turned off the lights a long time ago.
Toyota won't make electric only hybrid. Hybrid IS the way forward
Since Germany's government likes to back it's car companies I'm quite certain that at least a few of the largest German brands will make it.
And the US government likes to back its car companies too, but that won't save GM or Chrysler this time.
Hybrids do still make sense for many people, such as: Those in apartments with no charging infrastructure (the demographic majority in many parts of the world); Those who make medium-to-long journeys with tight scheduling (eg, I was a gigging musician); Those whose finances dictate buying used vehicles, etc, etc.
It also makes sense for those that don't drive many miles a years.
Ford and GM? Yes they'll probably still be propped up by their government as you said. But I think they'll be much lower on the list making mediocre electric cars and various trucks.
I think I watched all 620 .....thanks for condensing and sharing all that knowledge!
Thanks for watching!
I disagree, because of Tesla's warranty on there cars i dont think they will be number 1,i think it will be a close call between Hyundai or Toyota or even Honda.
What's a there car?
@@Brian-om2hh Tesla cars
Thanks!
Welcome!
The problem with EV, there are plenty of developing countries that have poor electric supply. Blackout is regular, and there is hardly any plan to develop solar or wind power. They still focusing on reliably supplying electricity to their respective market. It will take more time for them to catch up.
Sure, the grid in many developing countries is not up to scratch. Neither are there roads for ICE. They' are getting the grid fixed before the roads though - through wind and solar because that is now cheapest.
According to a study by McKinsey & Co.’s 2024 Mobility Consumer Pulse, they found that 46 percent of EV owners in the United States want to revert back to ICE due to inadequate charging infrastructure.
Congress provided $5 billion grant for charging stations in 2021. So far, less than 183,000 were built! Where did the money go?
Interesting to watch older videos to see just how quickly the EV market changes :)
A
I love how some of the comments aged badly , that bet against China and Tesla
people don't buy hybrid to burn gas, but to have an insurance. this means that hybrids are not necessarily dirtier. for some parts of the world where charging options are limited, i think hybrids make sense.
Toyota didn't even make the list? I believe by 2030, it will be among the top 5 ranking.
They won't even get a look in...
They will be the top selling auto maker behind BYD.
@@grantbuttenshawyoure probably much closer to being correct over all these other kool-aid drinkers. Where do you think tesla and Volkswagen will be
NO OTHER CAR COMPANY IS ALSO AN ENERGY ENERGY COMPANY, like TESLA! Powerwalls!! Batteries are the key for cars snd the Holy Grail SUPPLY/DEMAND
The worldwide market share analyses DOES NOT tell the whole story. TESLA has the monopoly in the USA market while NON of the Chinese EV WAS allowed to that market, however, the TESLA was and still is manufactured in CHINA and sold in CHINA, and permitted to be purchased in China with Chinese givernment tax cedits and also EXPORTED from China to other southeast Asian countries. You got the picture?
The big disruptor will be when Chinese auto manufacturers can sell cheap reliable cars in the USA, why Elon is doing everything to stop any competition, and Trump Tarrifs. Yet competition is what brings prices down as well as increasing reliability.
Sam what an awesome video. This is going to come as a shock to Joe Bidden and Mary Barra. (If only they had access to TH-cam.) Many thanks for the effort you put into your videos, most of the world has no idea of the disruption coming in the next 9-years. As Tesla has discovered it takes years to build a new car factory in Germany. The number of factories dedicated to the production of EV's is going to be the decider. Tesla appear to be much further ahead than some of their competitors. I would guess starting from scratch will be much easier than decommissioning an old ICE factory and the re-equipping that. My guess is long before 2030 we will be able to see who the winners will be by 2030. Once you fall behind the key players in any market you end up lacking the cash to catch-up. By 2026 the winners will be emerging. That is when the consolidations will start in an attempt to catch the market leaders.
But you don't understand........Mary Barra led, and it matters.
you are underestimating Xpeng. No Doubt.
Good analysis. I know though that with regard to Ford there's a large part of their debt from their financing arm "Ford Credit" -- that is to say that it's money that is coming back to them and doesn't really have much to do with their operations debt. Some other automakers are similarly seeming to have a high debt-load, but it's deceptive because of their internal financing groups debt -- which is generally only looked at as a lump sum rather than breaking it out.
I'm not sure how many automakers have a similarly deceptive debt picture.
I wouldn't rule out that ICE cars will still have a place in 2030 because you cannot unconsider popular demand and politician turnarounds. The only way is that by bumping up gas prices and ecotaxes on registration people will want to get rid of ICE and not by enviromental or technical prowness of the evs.
If the US government had just a few brain cells that weren’t owned by lobbyists, they might not be in this situation as badly. Will making unions mandatory help? Will making GM the head of electrification instead of Tesla be more effective? Lobbyist’s money was on parade.
BYD make buses, so can't see them going away any time soon. They share some of the 421,000 unit market currently in China, and they will likely come to many other countries, and developing countries in time.
This is a good point. The rest of the world, including the US, is WAY behind China in electrifying urban public transport.
I enjoy all the Electric Viking episodes and have been a subscriber for a few months now. Fantastic job on the reporting. I would like to see more of the offerings from China coming out in 2022 and 2023.
You make some bold projections for 2030 about the number of EV cars being sold, but what about the supply of electricity? The year 2030 projection has plenty of EV cars and assumes a charging infrastructure, but how much electricity can be produced for the increased demand of all the EV cars? It would be interesting for you to calculate the reduction in petrol consumption versus the increased kwh demand by country. How much CO2 will be eliminated or created by the conversion to EV cars? Can each country support the increased recharging demand. In the US California and Texas suffered brownouts of limited to no available electricity for normal everyday use. What will that mean for the EV plug in cars?
Renewable intermitent elect generation is a very fast and cheap build comodity. Eg wind generation now about 1/2 the cost per nameplate kw capacity. Intermitent is acceptable for charging batteries provided charge station are always available, eg at homes/apts and at work (or at robotaxi depots).
CIRCA MAY 32, 2028
McDonald's Eastern Region welcomes Mary Barra as the new District Manager, Detroit area. Barra spend years at GM before joining the Golden Arches
Love this episode. My only problem with your projection is that Tesla cars are not for most people, most people all over the world simply can’t afford it. I am sure there will be lots lots more lower end EV being sold than high end cars like Tesla.
Hopefully Tesla will start to make their 25k car in 2023, and make enough of them by 2025.
And crossing my fingers that Tesla will do a 15k car in 2026.
The future looks great! 😊
That’s what the Nokia boss said about iPhone, $500 DOLLARS no one gonna buy that that’s too expensive
That's why in 2030 most cars sold around the world will be Chinese. Tesla and VW will be profitable because they are the top end of the market (like Mercedes or Lexus).
Would you change your 2030 prediction from tesla to BYD as the largest manufacturer now that BYD over took Telsa?
First, thank you for making this analysis and sharing it with us. I personally believe the picture might look not completely, but at least a little different. The term EV will be substituted by AV: autonomous vehicle. The electric drive will just be a basic necessity. This changes the picture. 1) Most people in metropolitan areas will not own a car any longer (to expensive, e.g. parking, city toll). 2) Companies with autonomous fleets will not buy mostly cheap cars, but rather more convinient and long lasting cars. Car producers might run their own autonomous fleets, their own insurances, etc. 3) The total number of cars will be significantly smaller than today. Most cars today are running only about 1 hour/day. These AV in 2030 will run 24 hours/day only shortly interrupted by fast-charging. Therefore we need only about 1/20 of the number of cars (or maybe 1/10) of today. We will even more telecommute than today. 3) All these Union-controlled companies, e.g. GM, Ford, VW, etc. will have ceased to exist. Car production in 2030 will be fully automatically performed by robots. 4) Cars will last very long. CONCLUSION: Only very few very large car companies will survive.
AVs running 24 hours/day? Do you really think that there will be the same demand for rides at 3AM as during rush hour?
@@mrmozart41 That's a good and interesting point. No, the demand will differ. From an economic point of view, might it be cheaper to have a dedicated cost-intensive parking lot for an AV, or keep the AV running in an area with potential customers? I expect there will be waiting areas, e.g. outside airports, train stations, etc., but otherwise, they might keep roaming the streets. AVs also need maintenance, cleaning (especially the inside), recharging. It makes sense to perform those tasks during times of low demand.
@mrmozart41 Drivers and delivery workers will be automated, so AVs will deliver people in the daytime, goods at night. Plus long distance travel will take place at night in sleepers.
@@juliahello6673 That are really smart thoughts. Cool.
I predict NIO with Battery Swap. And BaaS. Its not only about Cars. Its producing EV Cars, producing Electricity and sell the E to the EV.
China is heading into a debt crisis in the next few years and many of the Chinese auto makers have a large amount of visible debt, as well as potentially large amounts of hidden debt. This won't cause them to crash (the central government will probably prevent that), but could lead a large amount of consolidation into only a few main companies.
I agree just like American automakers a few decades ago.
This will allow them to concentrate resources and achieve economies of scale and greater innovation and r & d.
I like my polluting Dodge hellcat AND my model Y perf. What am i to do?
IF BEV sales are 95% of the market…great analysis. ICE isn’t going away that fast despite claims by many. Try BEV at 30 to 40%. We’ll see.
This comment will not age well. Why would anyone want old tech when everyone around are driving around with high tech electric robots. People are followers and move in masses.
I’ll date myself and declare my Engineering Degree from 1985. We learned and progressed from peer reviewed facts. Information today comes from social media and look at the train wrecks it has created. As it pertains to BEV’s, electricity production is not Carbon free (except Norway) and until it is it is social media driving the wrong behaviour to stop Global Warming. Not enough Engineers in Charge is what won’t age well.
Companies like Lucid may be around a while. They are a premium luxury brand. They don't have to sell volume as long as wealthy people see value, prestige, luxury,...)whatever reasons rich people buy cars)...in their cars. Bently doesn't sell many cars every year and their cars take forever to build. So, I think Lucid depends more on acceptance that production volume.
One of the interesting points is that there is a simple assumption that Tesla will be top of the pack in 2030. I’m not a Tesla hater or a Tesla fan-boy. I admire what they’ve done but think that they have some interesting decisions to make n the coming years and the actions they take might impact on their position in 2030.
In Europe I’m convinced that the biggest selling vehicles will be small to medium sized cars. Tesla will need the type 2 or A class or whatever if they are going to dominate the European market. The longer they delay in marketing such a car the more opportunities they give legacy car makers or the Chinese to stake their claim. But , will a small Tesla tarnish the brand. At the moment in the UK if you say “my car is a Tesla” it’s a shorthand for “I would have been driving a luxury car like a Mercedes or BMW a few years ago but I have more sense than that now”. Will there still be that implication that you are something special when there is a small Tesla around? I suggest a small model is needed but it’s positioning will need to be managed carefully if it isn’t to damage sales of the 3.
Then there is “second album - itis “. How do you keep a minimalistic car up to date? A couple f days ago this channel showed the new Ora large car and the Viking was justifiably impressed with the luxurious interior. As the range, charging times and performance of EVs of a certain size all coalesce at about the same point design is likely to become the most important factor and , maybe, Tesla minimalism won’t be seen as a stand out design in a year or so?
In the US I can’t imagine that Ford and GM will just sit back and let the Cybertruck become the default vehicle. Tesla might find it harder to become the dominant force in the pick up market than they have in the sedan world.
I’m not saying that Tesla won’t be the number one ( their control of battery supply and their mass production techniques clearly give them a strong position) but I just don’t think that you can assume it’s a given
FSD is also a factor to consider. Plus luxury comes with stability. The future is not looking stable due to China/Russia relations with USA
GM and Ford will not be able to compete with the Cybertruck's specifications but most importantly on margin. The Cybertruck will out spec anything from Legacy and to compete with that GM and Ford will have to make a very expensive vehicle at very low margin.
Just heard on the TV that after 90 years GM is no longer the largest seller of cars in the USA. TOYOTA is now #1. GM & Ford neglected quality foe too many years. My first 3 chevies all had major rushing problems. My 3 new Ford's that I owned all leaked oil onto my driveway before 30k miles while both of my Hondas never leaked a drop of oil.
I noticed you did not include Toyota in your list of major EV producers in 2030. I have to assume that you lumped Toyota with others. FYI Toyota had a net income of $27 billion in their fiscal year ending March 2021. We have already seen how fast VW and Ford have caught up with Tesla in quality of their EV offerings. Toyota will do the same and I believe their EV sales will far exceed Tesla’s by 2030 , and they continue to make huge profits as they get there.
I think there go Hydro not a and not make a lot of EV funny as there not a lot of Platinum in the world you need for Hydro car and the price of platinum will rocket up
Vehicle to grid is awesome progress. Don't think about 1 car at 1 house....think about 1 grid, thousands of cars, thousands of houses. At any given time how many evs are plugged in and ready to help with the back and forth of solar power. Totally solves most problems.
Has your research included a global collapse of the gasoline / diesel market due to low volume of production?
It should.
Exactly what I have been thinking about. EVs are only just now reaching production scale to really get the benefit of scale (outside of Tesla of course). What happens when ICE sells as little as EVs do now?
Anybody else watch Engineering Explained? It's amazing how many engineering man-years are put into squeezing 1% more efficiency out of those ICEs.
In doing so, they've had to make them extremely complicated with even more parts to go wrong or wear out.
The accelerated pace of technology change (exponential) would lead me to believe that it is almost impossible to predict a 2030 outcome, who knows what things will look like by then - based on technological advancements and innovation (think what the iPod did to the phone industry...).
Video is too long for most audiences, consider breaking down reviews on individual suppliers and producing an overarching summary video (10 mins is a good target), that way consumers can pick or choose whether to watch the summary and the independent breakdowns. You should get more views this way and increase your channel stats - much more people will likely want to watch if bite sized.
Si H: Agreed. It's hard enough trying to make such predictions for 2025. And look how quickly things like batteries (just look at LFP progress), automated vehicles, etc. are changing, much less all the companies which will be fighting for EV market share.
No disrespect at all to the folks trying to make such predictions -- I just think it's beyond human capacity to even make MEANINGFUL predictions with any detail that far ahead, for something as big and new and volatile as the BEV market.
The Chinese manufacturers are going to have a problem selling high value vehicles in the West with no dealer and service networks, no supply chain for spares, no brand recognition, no long term support history. I firmly believe that they will nearly all need to partner with or buy up existing recognisable brands in the West, like Volvo and and to a small extent MG.
Since many of those brands will be at or near bankruptcy in a few years, buying them shouldn't be a problem.
As a Model Y owner I cannot help to think that the ‘Mericans driving huge, over-lifted, soot-belching Diesel trucks will keep the big 3 on life support. They love the noise, smoke and the polluting potential and say “ Ain’t tak’n my truck away, over my dead body!”
Perhaps, but that option will become increasingly expensive as Detroit OEM's truck numbers fall and their only profit is derived there. Pickups priced like Ferrari anyone?
As Len says, numbers WILL decline and as they do economy of scale decreases, si the price/ profit equation becomes "tricky". Add a similar dilemma in the oil industry, increasing fuel prices, or at least making them volatile, which will if course affect the high consumption vehicles more than others.
"Loyalty" only extends as far as the wallet will allow.
A bit puzzled by the absence of Toyota. Even China is a significant supplier of battery, Panasonic is one of the current big 3 supplies too!
White bias
“Even China”?
You say car sales peaked in 2018, and you say China's per capita consumption of cars will continue increasing. Both cannot be true.
Tesla is a fine company making fine EVs, but I doubt that it'll produce a quarter of all cars sold in 2030. Many pressures including political pressures resist this level of concentration.
By 2030, Tesla will be essentially "larger" (financially) than many countries.
@@rogerstarkey5390 What does "larger than a country" mean? Tesla's market cap is greater than a country's GDP? That compares a stock (market cap) with a flow (GDP).
We could compare a country's GDP to Tesla's sales, around $30 billion in 2020, maybe $50 billion this year. That's roughly Tuvalu's GDP now. Tuvalu is an island nation of roughly ten square miles.
EVs are coming with a vengeance, much faster than most people predicted only a few years ago, but legacy automakers are beginning to adapt. Only a few months ago, Viking was predicting Ford's bankruptcy. A few years ago, he might have said the same about VW. I doubt that Tesla has tied up the battery supply as thoroughly as Viking imagines. If most cars sold in 2030 will be EVs, the necessary battery production will be orders of magnitude greater than it is now. No one is contracting with Tesla for all of this future battery production now, and even if they did, the contracts are only as good as Tesla's future sales.
I have no idea what Rivian will sell in 2030, but "they're all luxury vehicles" is something you could have said about Tesla only a few years ago. I also have no idea what startups that I've never heard of will sell in 2030.
Of course, you can pay anything you like for a share of Tesla stock. Good luck to you.
Rise shine and sink... applies for almost everything....Even for car companies, countries, Twitter and so on... nothing is new under the sun. History over and over again.....
The bookshelf in the background is much better than the empty walls. The growth curve will level off as there's a percentage of auto buyers that will refuse to buy an EV. Yes, they might be ignorant but that's just what the American buying public is, 40% Trump Supporters that well, enough said.
I think you are right about the stubbornness of a certain segment of American car buyers, especially pickup trucks. However, I don’t think that it is as high as 40% and also, whatever their numbers, they will not be large enough to be able to sustain the market for refined gasoline or diesel to power their vehicles. As the numbers decrease, economy of scale for refining petroleum (oil) will just continue to drive up the price at the pump. Same will happen for the maintenance and repair costs of those ice pickup trucks. It may take about 2 to 3 years after everyone else but their stubbornness will not be enough to sustain a market for ice vehicles.
In the USA the pickup truck, or ute in Aussie, is king of sales. What do you see happening in that part of the market? I don't see pulling my camper with an electric vehicle at this time. The tow range with my current vehicle is 300 miles. Do you see progression in battery capacity to equal that?
We're on the list for a cyber truck specifically so we can tow with it. Not sure what the tow range will be. Don't even know what we'll tow! But range isn't as important as cost, both to fuel and to maintain. You literally could not give me a tow vehicle with pistons and expect me to use it for that. I'd just sell it and put the money towards the CT.
I am sure there is a suitable ev for you in you future. Ask your self, how long do you drive without taking a break ? 200kms are recommended ? 300kms maximum recommended ? You can recharge during your break, and vehicles will become available to recharge that 300kms in the time it takes you to have a stretch, take a dump, and buy a coffee.
Oz longest drive without fuel is the Canning Stock route and 1200km between fuel supplies. Out there, ev is very suited as solar is cheap.
Many evs also support vehicle to vehicle charging now.
Maybe you will progress to a light weight camper infuture
A few drivers will still need ice for a while to come.
A couple times a year we tow to Colorado and Utah from Michigan. A typical day we will cover 1600km. Yes 1000 miles in a day. Drove to Idaho in two days.
suzuki/maruti and hyundai are no1 and no2 in the indian market, maybe if they produce small electric vehicles and if indians somehow get their stuff together then these companies can sell large qtys of small electric cars in india alone in 2030??
I do think the Indian market is a large hole in the analysis. I'd love to know more about how that market will evolve.
20% for "the rest" might be a bit low but is still a lot of the market. India, other existing legacy companies, and startups will need to fight for battery supply contracts. One thing is certain CATL has a great future.
It’s all about the robotaxis. If Tesla can get an FSD system that can drive in Indian or Addis traffic, it’s game over. No car ownership required.
@@EMichaelBall still very dependant on regulations and insurance. If the tech existed now we would still be 10 years from wide adoption.
@ 0ops1e Tesla would self-insure. Enough people would switch instantly as it saves money over a car payment and gas, plus there’s no legal liability in a crash. Regulatory matters will be the road block; enough per-mile taxation and they may OK it.
There is a report that a fleet has purchased 600 Australian MG ZS EVs leaving three for sale in Australia.
That would explain a lot
You forgot to take into consideration WWIII.
Hyundai just announced an all out EV assault, I'd be tipping they will beat Ford and GM to finish 4th.
Toyota..... They may be late to the party and slow to change but my money would be on them with a top 10 finish.
They've got huge resources, look for them to make a late charge.
I would be interested in the future of the petrol industry. At some point stations will start to disappear and eventually petrol will become very expensive due to lack of demand. Perception of these tipping points will influence ev sales.
Already happening in Norway. Shell in Norway are removing petrol pumps from some forecourts there, and installing EV chargers in their place.
Lots of good information and I think you have a good understanding of electrical car sales in general but I just can’t see the US truck market going completely electric. I guess it’s possible but Americans love trucks and are very willing to spend big to get what they want, 40 -90k no problem. A lot of us are also very stubborn and will do things against our own best interests, unfortunately. The other question I have is where all the battery supply will come from. Hopefully innovation helps a lot and I truly do hope you are correct.
I have to agree about the pickup truck market. The initial offerings are disappointing to people who use a truck as a truck. Anything less than a 6.5' bed is a toy to me, 8' much better. Charging infrastructure is a joke for everything but a Tesla, and even then there is no way to charge without dropping a trailer first. I have asked about snowplow options (I live in the northeast) and received no acknowledgement whatsoever (with the exception of one youtuber that thought I could just weld a plowframe onto a cybertruck - Really?) I would be surprised to see a true electric work truck in the next 10 years. (I'd love to plow snow with an 800 hp cybertruck, though).
Good video. Let me throw in my 2 cents. Volvo alone, within Geely, plans to sell 1,200,000 cars in 2025, half hybrid and half BEV. By 2030 Volvo plans to sell 100% all electric. Maybe 1,500,000 or more. And looking at the Polestar 5 and how stunning it looks, I think Polestar may be a sleeper. I think you might put Geely/Volvo/Polestar/Zeekr at more like 3, maybe 4 million by 2030. Anyway, there's my 2 cents. It's worth every penny.
Rewrite!
"Volvo alone (😁) 'plans' to sell as many *FULL* BEV's in 2025 as Tesla produced in the first 3 Quarters of 2021........ "
🤔
Mmmmmm..... Ambition!
@@rogerstarkey5390 Volvo is not vying to be a big company. Maybe bigger than it was before, but Volvo has always been a niche player even though their sales nearly doubled from 2013 to 2019.. Volvo doesn't want to be the biggest.
Funny thing there won’t be enough battery for these company if they are not getting the material early on.
@@Nightthefirst Volvo already has their battery supply for their BEV plans sewed up with CATL, LG Chem and Northvolt. Northvolt and Volvo are also building a 50 GWh battery plant in Sweden, which should be ready in a couple of years..
Sounds “GREAT”👍‼️ But what’s FSD do when you’re right out of Town, with no lines & the closest Speed Sign is a half hour way⁉️ just notify the Air Bags
Just notify the Ait Bags
Although this review is well organised it’s from a “Asian Pacific American” POV.
The EV market is growing exponentially in Europe (in some countries EV sales is more than 30% of all new cars sales - booming petrol prices is helping).
And now for a history lesson: Chinese manufacturers will have to produce their products in Europe (its not a maybe, it’s a certain) to avoid tariffs (the same they apply today to any European car export). They will have to offer a much better product for the price that they eventually end up selling in Europe).
Renault will not disappear and the same for FIAT (now under the Stelantis group along with Peugeot although most of brands will die - I would say Peugeot, Citroen, FIAT, Chrysler will be keept, the other will disappear ).
But for me the biggest stupidity of this video (based only on numbers and statistics) is not knowing that Mercedes is much more than a luxury brand (that it will survive just fine) and completely forgetting their large heavy duty trucks business.
Mercedes and BMW already have great EV products to sell right now so I find strange that the author not even acknowledge that).
The market is changing on a rapid pace, a lot of brands will die (or be discontinued), the market will consolidate around even bigger groups (more than it is today). The key factor will be the service and not only the car (drivetrain, batteries, software). And big tech companies will get in the game because of “software” essencial for a modern car.
@@benjaminsmith2287 I saw one video of him bashing the new iX just because it’s wasn’t “M-Sport” enough in his bs Australian gauge 🤦♂️😂 like BMW “only” makes sport cars or something. His understanding is severely affected by his geographical insulation.
The same when he talks about the Renault Zoe and ignores the fact that for a long long time that was the only electric car in many markets (along side with Nissan Leaf) and that the Zoe project is old, really old!!! 😂
Regarding BMW and Mercedes, I think the point is not that they cannot make EV's, they have some small success already it is rather that they cannot make sufficient money on EV's to be viable and their stranded assets and requirement for new investment will put an end to them.
@@benjaminsmith2287 That's their problem, they only make money on ICE as this revenue source dries up and huge investment in batteries and manufacturing is needed staff need reducing and retraining and software expertise needs hiring (if it can be found). All these things mean they will fail, the Chinese are banging on the door.
Are you familiar with the Broadway picture comparison? In 1900 , it was all horses and one motor car. In 1910, it was aĺ motor cars and one horse.
Toyota may be late to the game, but I'd bet on them roaring back to reach top 5 status.
This comment hasn’t aged well…
Yeah. Toyota is a well run company with a long track record of deliverables. If they say they have solid state batteries it's not a scam. Mind you this doesn't necessarily mean something they have that exists in lab will be able to be scaled up to be cost competitive with non-solid state CATL offerings. Nevertheless, long term I'd bet on solid state. While you can salt them with other elements. there are known physics limitations on maximum theoretical energy density of Lithium. No one knows the maximum theoretical energy density of batteries made with solid state materials but there is good reason to believe it ultimately will be much higher than lithium. .
Well, I sure hope you have a crystal ball since I own 4 EV stocks and they are your top 4!
Oh biased one, do you think the world will wake up and realize from where electricity comes?
It'll come from the same places oil refineries get it from. But of course in time the oil refineries will only be using around 20% of the electricity they presently use, which will leave the other 80% in the grid as additional capacity.... In fact the total amount of electricity saved will be even greater, as there will be no need to use it to pump millions of gallons of crude out of the ground, before it even reaches the refineries. Plus many EV owners have solar panels, and generate some of their own electricity.
Electricity comes from numerous sources, Hydro , Wind, Geothermal , tidal Waves , lastly FOSSIL fuels which is not RENEWABLE, I watch movies that show people crossing oceans on SAILBOATS, I think Christopher Columbus was one of them🤔..😂
News from Europe: bmw did not renew the production contract with Dutch VDL for the Mini.
The E-Mini is being produced in Oxford, UK.
I seem to remember VDL had talks with Rivian to make their SUV but i never heard about it since then.
The VDL factory in Born, NL is modern. Lets hope another car producer makes a deal to start production there.
Although the whole idea behind this video is nice, the contained information and also the conclusion is simply up to the creators mind. We all can agree that Tesla will play an important role in the 2030 BEV market, but putting them into first place with twice the amount of its successor is nonsense. This would mean that Tesla is competing on every car market, by country and by segment.
The problem with Tesla is, that it is currently hyped a little too much so that people are buying Teslas just to sell them with a profit because of the limited supply. It's pretty similar to the PS5 scalpers. This will change with Giga Texas and Giga Berlin ramping up production. On the mid-term it will hurt the used Tesla market as well as the margin on new Teslas. Although Tesla can afford this easily, it will have an impact on the demand and also growth rate.
And let's be honest, future growth will be defined by affordable cars and Teslas are far away from being affordable for the masses. Current growth is based on early adoption from EV enthusiasts who like the idea of electric performance cars, especially when they can get incentives from the government. Incentives won't be there forever, competitors are getting stronger in every segment and the average mass market user does not need a car with 0-62 mph in 4 seconds.
In my opinion the actual advantages from Tesla are:
- Supercharger network
- Free advertising by all those Tesla fanboys
- No dealership network (but also no service network in the other hand)
- Ultra low time to market (because they simply ship new tech without proper testing and fanboys still accept that)
There is still a chance Tesla won't be on the list of automakers in 2030. When they go for the 4680 cells with structural batteries and there is a major issue within the next 5 years, this could result in a mass recall of several hundred thousands or even millions of vehicles.
I think this is as good a guess as anyone and note and confirm your deep research. I am in the same boat, but my 1000’s of hours are split between EVs/Tesla and Crypto/Bitcoin. See what I did there? I like that EV also works for electric viking. I think I need to Patreon you. You have earned it big time.