PM School - How to Solve Guesstimates | Estimation Based Question in a Product Management Interview
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- เผยแพร่เมื่อ 7 มิ.ย. 2024
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Hey guys!
We're back with another video in the Explainers Series!
In Part 2 of this Series, Prashanth takes an elaborate look at what Guesstimates are and how to crack them. Do make sure to watch the video till the end!
0:00 - Introduction
0:08 - What are Guesstimates
0:32 - Approaches
0:37 - Top-Down Approach
1:07 - Bottom-Up Approach
1:43 - Constraint Based Approach
3:02 - Simple Math
3:24 - Number of iPhones sold in India last year
8:08 - Things to Remember
9:22 - Cheat Sheet
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Link to the cheat sheet -
drive.google.com/file/d/1iCqW...
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Speakers -
Prashanth Bhaskaran / prashanthbhaskar
PM School is the leading platform for Product Management aspirants in India, founded by BITS Pilani and IIT Bombay graduates. We believe Product, as a discipline, is best taught by industry practitioners. Our Live Program has produced PMs who now work at top companies like BYJU'S, Reliance Jio, Ninjacart, Games24x7, Classplus and Freecharge to name a few.
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#Tech #Product #MockInterview #Mock #ProductDesign #ProductManagement #PM #PMSchool #LeadTech
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This series is Gold! Please continue to make more such videos
Amazing explanation. One clarification - in the guesstimate for iphones sold in India, we calculated by finding his many own an iPhone and dividing that by the lifetime of iphone. But given that a significant number of iphone owners didn't really purchase the iPhone in India but from some other country say US, Dubai etc, shouldn't that also be factored into?
Clarity at its peaks,keep it up.
what a beautifully simply explained video!!
very informative video, great job!
This is so good, great stuff 🙌🏻
This video is a goldmine !!
Very Informative
This series is amazing
Very informative and easy to understand
Really helpful and helps in coming up with a well-defined approach to guesstimate problems.
Flawless
Awesome stuff, thanks for putting this together!
PS: not sure if people use bamboo sticks to brush teeth 🤣
Nice video
I don't understand why would you divide 200mn by 80. Shouldn't you divide this by the split of the age groups. so 200mn divided by 2 or 3?
We are not aware of
Population of each age group.
So we assume that population of each age group is same .
Let it would be x.
Total age groups : 80
So , total population = 80*x.
200 mn = 80*x.
x= 200mn/80
I got the correct answer using a different approach. I assumed that approx. 1% of population of India earns >=(1 lacs/month) and it would be safe to assume that only these people can afford to buy an iPhone. This gives a figure around 12 million. Considering other competitors like android, iPhone still have an edge over android for high end users, I considered that around 50% of these 12 million would be using iPhone. Now, out of these 6 million, it would be safe to assume that nearly 70% of these would be willing to upgrade phone every year. That gives around 4 million iPhones sold every year.
I solved it without seeing the solution. Kindly comment whatever you think about the solution.
How is occupancy related to the no. of flights taking off per day? Can you pls help?
My solution for one of the questions. Kindly provide feedback and let me know if the approach is correct.
# of flights taking off daily in India
Assumptions:
1. It takes 5min for a flight to take off.
2. Average no of runways in India per airport - 1.2
3. Flights are run across the day
4. 40% of the airports are commercial
Solution:
8min for a flight to take off, In 1hr, 7 flights can take off
In 1 hour based on average runways - 7x1.1 - 8 flights can take off per airport per hour
Number of cities in India - 3000
Average # of airports per city - 0.1
Total no of airports - 300
40% of the airports are commercial while the remaining 60% of them would be for flying school and military.
Total airports considered now is 300x40% = 120
Total number of flights per day = airports considered x # flights/hr x 24 = 120*8*24 = 23000
Sanity Check - 2019 stats show that 11000 flights were being flown per day.
Hey Ritesh,
Your approach looks good. You could further break down airport timings into peak and non-peak hours, where in the peak hours you’ll have say 100% runway utilisation and in non-peak you’d have say 60% runway utilisation, and get the total number of flights taking off in a day. In a real case/interview, it’s best if you clarify your assumptions and then move into the calculations.
@@pmschoolx Sure, will take into consideration. Thank you for the feedback.
Did you forget to take the no of runway while calculating?
Thank you.Session was really helpful but audio could have been better
We are working on it :)
How to estimate macbook users in pune?
Why did we divide 160/ 10 for getting the iPhone users? if its 1:10, shouldn't we divide by 11 instead?
is it a fair assumption that we took Rural to be 0 ?
The solution in the cheatsheet for TV revenue in 1 year has a flaw at the very last step. The cost of TV has been assumed as 10k, whereas the final #TV sold has been multiplied by 1k to generate the revenue. Please feel free to correct it :)
Can you specify what cheatsheet are you talking about
My guesstimate gave the answer 90 lacs iphones sold in a year , and this is quite close numbers stated in some news articles Checked on google. Major factors that differed from yours was considering 15+ age percentage of population being 70% , and average lifespan of mobile phones being 3 years, and considering the fact iphone has 25% market share, I arrived the answer. Really appreciate the video, and the concise explanation.
Why was 2.5 multiplied by 15 ? That’s the only part I didn’t quite get ?
2.5M per age group. 0 - 15 Years old will not be having a phone (assumption). That is 15 age groups and hence, 15 * 2.5M = 37.5M, which he approximated to 40M people.
@@aravindvenugopal4081 how 15 age groups? are we grouping by 15? os it that just an assumption that we are making?
@@keshavbalachandar5631 considering each age as an age group, like 0-1 as one age group, 1-2 as another age group, and like that 15 age groups. To put it in a simpler way, there would be 37.5M under 0-15 age group (select any age and there would be 2.5M people having the same age)
@@aravindvenugopal4081 ohhh got it got it. The name “age group” confused me. I thought 1-15, 16-20 is a group. It’s actually 1, 2…. Makes sense now. Thanks a lot
Audio is not good
We are working on it :)
Why 2.5 was multiplied by 15? That’s the only part I didn’t get in the video
Yeah me neither
To get the no. of users less than 15 years of age
🥲I wish I can take his brain for one day