How valuable are Florida State, Clemson, UNC & Miami to the ACC?
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- เผยแพร่เมื่อ 19 มิ.ย. 2024
- Excerpt from the 5/7 Big 12 Mafia Show
WildUte gives his financial analysis on just how valuable brands like #floridastate , #clemson , #miamihurricanes and #unc are to the #acc and how much survival may cost the conference.
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This is one of the best videos I've ever seen made on this. Remember, ESPN is running a business. It's not a charity. If FSU, Clemson, Miami, and UNC leaves; it cost ESPN roughly 51% of it's viewers. And it's not just the top brands. It has dramatic impacts on every game and every ACC Network subscription. This is what I mean. Even those schools on the botton, FSU v.s Duke or FSU v.s BC is going to give you much better numbers than say Cal v.s Duke or Cal v.s BC.....And how many ACC network subscribers are fans of FSU, Clemson, Miami, and UNC? What is the % on that? People are already leaving cable as is. If more than 50% of the subscribers cancel the ACC network; it's no longer profitable for ESPN. So if you are running the finances at ESPN, why would you keep the agreement in place, when you can get out of it? The % that Stanford, Cal, SMU, and say Tulane to replace those four are such a small % of the viewers and memberships ESPN had with those schools in the conference. Honestly, it's not worth it for ESPN to keep this ACC network or renew the option on the media deal.
Totally disagree. ESPN has lots and lots of airtime to fill. A bottom level ACC game is better than women’s lacrosse or reruns of the 1996 NC game. ESPN will renew the ESPN contract on some terms. The ACC will still have a number of mid tier teams like UNC and Pitt that will draw several hundred thousand viewers per game.
Once FSU & Clemson leave the Acc their tv contract will drop like a rock.
I’ve been saying it. The Big12 needs to focus on Miami, Louisville, VT, PITT & NCST. Then offer ND a ACC type deal
Great show guys from a WVU fan
Good stuff, great show. Some sources online are saying that initial moves/departures need to happen by the end of June. That is in order so the new addons will not be a factor. Supposedly, If the ACC falls below 14 schools (Clem/FSU departures), It breaks some conference agreement and makes it likely that Miami, UNC, and others will also depart. (I think i saw it on College Footbball Addiction??)
Thank you for the membership Shaunskee!
This is great analysis. I guess I don’t understand that FSU does not get a % in revenue based on viewers and why is the objective to save a bad company if the product is not competitive in all areas or members. The bottom teams get the same amount as FSU does.
So ND could keep making 78M a year by staying indy, by collecting 20M from espn/acc: 40M from Nbc; 18M - Cfp
Or they could join the B1G get their pick of 3 teams to come along and make $100+ million and play in a conference full of their rivals.
@@B12Mafia New A.D. Bevaqua has doubled down on wanting ND football to remain indy. However he is a close friend of the B1G commissioner. Stay tuned.
These stats just shows people how much the ACC parasites off of the Noles and Tigers. So much deadweight in this conference.
The 4.5% annual increase in the media value is extremely conservative. Most media contracts have doubled for a loosely calculated 10% annual increase. PE interest indicates the next B12 media contract will have a 100% increase from $32M to $64M!
How about a comparison of viewership of Colorado, ASU, UA, Utah, Oregon State, WSU?
Most likely payout to leave the ACC is going to be 60% of $140M or $72M. This would be similar to most conference exit fees for previous ACC teams leaving and also B12 schools. Also that $72M would be paid out over 10 years. That means the most likely money given back to the ACC from FSU and UC would be $14M per year for 10 years. Bleak 😮
Bottom TVs of the Big12 might have an issue. But they can be replaced by Miami, Louisville, VT, Pitt, NCST
Excellent video
Thank you, Doc!
Very unlikely to happen, but Utes analysis shows that without FSU and Clemson that the B12 is more valuable so if those two joined the B12 they would make more money long term. There were rumors of BY going to 24 teams with a C2C conference. UTE what might a conference be worth if the top 8 schools in ACC dissolve the conference and then join merge with the B12 for a 24 team conference? Assume that $499 would go north of $600M?
One very key thought missing...
Loss of FSU/Clemson - $49mil less than big 12
However, if the ACC exit fee is only $150mi than any team leaving for the big12 would then net $250mil.
Which is less than $352mil
What happens when you add Miami, Louisville, VT, Pitt or NCST to the Big12 tv contract? And CPF money?
This assumes ESPN does not extend..but if they don't extend the GOR tied to the ESPN deal ends in 2027 so they will get basically nothing.
If ESPN does extend then they pay the same amount with or without FSU till 20236.
There are only 2 options since a renegotiated deal means a new GOR
Why did you do 8 years and not a decade? If the numbers ran for the last 10 years instead of 8 years, FSU is number 1 and FSU and Clemson combined account over 40% of tv viewership. I do not know why you wouldn’t do a solid decade.
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Thank you, much Joaquin! We’ll keep that good content coming.
Ute possibly you have left out the B12 tier 3 $. Someone out of TTU said they reported a $2.8M for tier 3 last year, but I can’t find reliable details on tier 3, have you?
Notice the odd time period look back to 8 years and not standard time like 10 or 5. Excluding the last two years the last 8 is the worse time for FSU football in 50 years. Is went back 10 years it would included a national championship and follow up year before massive decline
Big12 playoff money will go up once the ACc is taken out
Acc w/o Clemson & FSU. You still show CFP at 11%. Must likely that would drop
Does the data include post regular season?
This should have been ironed out 3 years ago. Let UNC, Clemson, and Florida State leave and get $200,000,000 in exit fees from each school. Let them keep their TV rights but make them leave immediately. Then replace them with West Virginia, Cincy, and UCF (and depending on the state of the Big 12 at the time maybe even grab a Texas school). Yes, it's a drop-off but not a cavernous one and we'd be avoiding this drama.
WVU doesn't want to do business with the ACC, they had a few chances over the years. They fit together with the Big XII fan bases much better than any ACC teams.
FSU & Clemson are not paying $294 each. More like $100 million
hi guys
Once a few schools leave the rest will bolt. No one wants to be OSU & WSU.
2 notes. 1, Assume FSU/Clemson to B1G & NC/ Va to SEC. Add back value of Miami, subtract UVa. 2, considering other leaving will have to pay some type of exit fee, ACC payout would not have to equal B12 payout, just be close enough that it's not worth paying the exit fee to go to the B12. I
Think Miami is going to the B1G still.
@wildute6958 I think Miami goes later, around time ND joins. Could see how 21-24 all comes on at the same time, triggered by ND. ND, Stanford, Duke, Miami.
@@CaydensDaddio Stanford aint triggering shit
@@tomdemay6147 ND wants Stanford & Duke. ND triggering
@@CaydensDaddio i dont know how many times i gotta say it but ND dont really give a rats ass about Stanford. its a fake rivalry.
Neither Clemson or FSU have filed notice of withdrawal yet. The option no one talks about, is that they both could be staying the ACC if it was made worth their while to stay put. There also could be a number on that, and I could envision a few ways that could happen...and, it may not involve just money, but leadership change and other far more lucrative options that would give them a greater voice in the reshapement of a coastal conference, especially if Notre Dame gets more involved too.
I think FSU is gone no matter what, not sure ACC could keep them no matter the $$
@mattmachado7930 FSU is a special case, by the numbers I've seen, they don't even have a Billion dollars in their endowment, they are a relatively young school in current format, and their graduates have be less than generous toward that end....So it's easy to understand the desperation. It ultimately may depend on how much the privates really want to keep the publics around, and what lengths they may go to.
@@MichaelSmith-xb5cp maybe, but FSU is gone, yes they are young, but for its age, historically better than most colleges, in sports, academics,research
Masters from Utah. I would have never admitted that. Jk WildUte.
Wake Forest won 11 -3 in 2021. They may not get eyeballs on TV screens, but they’re a hell of a lot better program than you guys are giving them credit for.
Agreed. WF had been one of the better programs in the ACC in recent years.
Yeah but they don’t have fans and no one watches them on tv. Sorry but viewership and attendance is king
Viewership matters more than wins and losses. This has been pointed out many times. That’s why FSU was still valuable during the dark ages of 2017-2021. Viewership was still up that’s what matters.
While I understand the charts, my concern is Miami being swapped for (an)other team(s) to leave before them. So there's too many scenarios that can be calculated.
Acc w/o Clemson & FSU. You still show CFP at 11%. Must likely that would drop