Is Belarus the Big Winner of the Wagner Mutiny?
ฝัง
- เผยแพร่เมื่อ 21 ก.ค. 2024
- Join the VisualPolitik community and support us on Patreon: / visualpolitik
After Prigozhin's coup attempt, we already have a clear winner: Alexander Lukashenko, the dictator of Belarus. Not only was he responsible for making Wagner turn back before reaching Moscow (avoiding a real bloodbath and an even bigger pulse for the Kremlin)... he has also just managed to get an elite Russian corps installed in his own country.
For years, Lukashenko has weathered all Putin's attempts to absorb Belarus and turn it into another region of the Russian Federation. It is true that these two countries have traditionally been allies... but that friendship had its limits. In fact, at times it has been on the verge of collapsing. However, the Belarusian dictator did not have enough military muscle to stand up to the autocrat in Moscow. Now the tables have turned. To what extent has Belarus benefited from Wagner's coup? What influence does the fact that Prigozhin is in Minsk have? Who has more power now, Putin or Lukashenko? In this video, we tell you about it.
#Belarus #Putin #VisualPolitik
![[SUB] 베몬이 교관님 멘탈을 탕탕 후루후루~٩(๑❛ᴗ❛๑)۶ FOREVER 웃게 되는 갓기들의 수련회 | 돌들의침묵 | BABYMONSTER(베이비몬스터) 'FOREVER'](http://i.ytimg.com/vi/FISAO7BwIxE/mqdefault.jpg)
Never use this VA to say Belarus ever again
Balearuss
It actually sounds like AI generated sound
Does anyone know of it's AI? If so I am unsubscribing
@@andrew.Go ahead, unsub.
@@balpreetsingh6834 it's a shame, I enjoyed their reporting otherwise 🙁 rip
Balearrus 😂 is that a new country
AI is not yet good enough to be used for VO. Previous videos had some pronounciation errors, but this Belarus pronounciation is just criminal.
First time I was sure it said Polaris
Yes it's horrible
belarus/stellaris
belarus/smellofbooze
wait, why? I thought old Lukashenko was the fresh prince of Bel Airus?
Is the voice over lady an AI? She often mispronounces proper names
Dunno, but that voiceover was a disgrace
Please fix this Visual Politic. She should at least be able to pronounce the name of counties correctly. If she can't do that then what is the point of her being any part of an international political channel
I love the line: “Putin use to be seen as a chad but now he is a simp” lol
And this channel mysteriously disappears
Or the hosts get pushed out a window after finding polonium in their tea
I think that's super cringe
@@turtleofpride4572 Indeed. A channel with aspirations to be taken seriously using teenagers memes and losers' slang
@@ThePowerMoves Exactly, trying to appeal to the lowest common denominator
I'm afraid Prigozhyn's secret of superwarriors is a bit like this: you take a pound of cannonfother, convicts, whatever... you throw them in the meatgrinder, and then you take your much better paid fighters and let them observe where the weak points are and where the enemy ran out of ammo, you then charge there... two problems there... where will they get the extra fother, where will they get the money to pay the experienced ones...
*Cannon fodder
@@guill90 thanks
arent they getting the money from several african projects, where they offer their military services for gold diamonds and oil?
@@Sarchein I'm also thinking what the role of the Chinese is in this, they also have business in Africa, and Prigozhyn is their guy 'that gets things done'... but will they stay with Prigozghyn? I guess in the near future you'll see some shifts in the African 'enterprise' of Wagner... changes in management and all... and more or less overt mutiny... Prigozhyn starting his own little corporate empire in Africa? How will the CIA deal with this? and other old colonial powers like France and even the UK?
Well I doubt that Belarus is short on prison population. Plenty of fodder there
"We will be together ...... someday" thats what she said 😢
Maybe worth going back to the relationship between Lukashenko and Yeltsin, when Lukashenko pursued a "unification" agenda, and harboured hopes that if the states were united he might succeed Yeltsin as president. Unfortunately for him, Yeltsin nominated Putin as his successor, and it's just possible that Lukashenko has since harboured a lifelong grudge against Putin. His subsequent actions have certainly demonstrated a willingness to take everything Putin offers him, without offering anything voluntarily by way of active cooperation. If we now consider the symbiotic relationship between Lukashenko and Prigozhin, Prigozhin and his mercenary fighters have a safe haven where they can not be arrested or persecuted by Putin: Lukashenko in return has acquired a military force capable of protection him from any military assault by Putin (given the reduced state of Russia's armed forces) If we turn to the additional "assets" that both can bring to the table, Lukashenko has been in power for a long time so will have an intimate knowledge of the Russian political oligarchy and their individual degrees of loyalty to Putin: Prigozhin is on good terms with many senior members of Russia's military, has a positive reputation amongst Russian soldiers, and is poplar with sections of the Russian population. On that basis, we appear to be looking at a duo who are a "dream team" to stage Putin's removal and replacement. Lukashenko is not well positioned to take over as Russian president himself, but he is well placed to take a role as "kingmaker", and ensure a new president sympathetic to him and willing to support his continued rule in Belarus. Were we to do some diplomatic digging, I suspect we would discover some "back channels" between Lukashenko and Zelensky, as well as "interesting" contacts between Lukashenko and some Western leaders. A well played hand by Lukashenko could see an end to the Ukrainian conflict, a relationship with the EU that quickly resolved Belarus' economic problems, and was sympathetic to his retention of political power. In addition, the war criminals amongst the Wagner group would not be pursued with "over enthusiastic vigour".
That's an interesting reply, this whole saga is nearly playing out like the Game of Thrones tv series, at this point i'm keeping a lookout for the three eyed Raven as it feels like anything is possible --- lol
The storm is coming, right beneath their feet
next time please format your text.
I would not be surprised if Lukashenko and Prigozhin are now in active talks with the CIA. But the next Russian dictator will be installed by none other than Winnie the Pooh.
Enjoyed this podcast. New to the channel & so glad I discovered it. Keep up the great work, guys! 👍
"who has more power, Putin or Lukashenko?"
The FSB, period!
the FSB works for Putin buddy
@@wesley135 Putin is in power by the grace of the FSB... buddy
Who protects proghozin ? Fsb
We are at the stage where the underlings are making plans against the big boss to save themselves.
Let's recap some of the key victory points for Lukashenko, that I feel weren't expanded enough on:
1) His own "Varangian Guard" - i.e. foreign mercenaries without local connections/loyalties who could be counted on to put down any local unrest/uprising.
2) A strong source of combat experience around land-based warfare using Russian- and Soviet-made equipment; which can be used to help modernise Belarus's military.
3) Evidence to the (Western) world that he has influence and Putin's ear, improving his position with them and potentially paving the way for the West to negotiate with him to try to influence Putin.
The main challenge is keeping Prigozhin in check and making sure he does not go rogue; be it to cause further trouble in Russia or to develop aspirations of his own to overthrow/replace Lukashenko.
Excellent analysis. I have a question, however. Does Lukashenko have the money to pay his new employees? These men are not loyal to the Belarus people or country, as you pointed out. They have no local connections, so they will not be motivated to defend any Belarus homeland. They work for money, and only money. No money, no work. Worse yet, if they have been promised money, and do not get what they were promised, they could turn on Lukashenko to extract whatever they want.
@@cherylk.2474 As mentioned in the video, Prigozhin and Wagner's revenue stream comes from the African mines they control. Which is why I mentioned the challenge being around Lukashenko keeping them in check. At present, the main motivation they have to ally with Lukashenko is his providing them asylum.
@@cherylk.2474 Yip think Odoacer and Roman emperor,
The way I see it, prigoshin has more troops as well as the money to pay them, than lukashenko. Nothing stopping him from taking over Belarus. Might have been Putin's plan all along
I have serious doubts that accepting a 25.000 men strong mercenary army in your small country is a voluntary deed. You really think Putin is a mug? Wagnerites are out of Russia and into a rebellious "union state". Lukashenko better be a good boy now.
WarGaming was founded by a Belarusian but had development teams in Belarus, Russia and Ukraine. they have multiple hundrets of employees in ukraine and decided to stand with them and get their belarusian and russian employees out as much as possible.
Or at least, that is what it looks like, or is supposed to look like. I am sure that they were feeling the pressure, having customers in Europe, North America, Asia and China (as a separate market from Asia). They could have lost all this, and would then only have had Russia left as customers. They HAD to put on a good face, but as long as Russian tanks are OP in the game, we can trust that their allegiance is not with the west.
@@MorningNapalm by farvtheir biggest market is russia. the russian servers are multiple times larger than EU and US servers.
They moved their headquarters and banking to Cyprus years ago.
When one of the board members openly expressed support for Putin, they fired him.
I'm not saying they are anti-Russian at all; but they are doing the things that would be expected of a company trying to remain uninvolved or at least not openly picking sides in the war. In other words, remain a neutral business entity.
They make OK games, but they make great people.
@@RangerB66 you can be a patriotic russian (which would explain the very strong russian tanks), and still oppose putin and the war.
Imagine if Prigozhin had made it to Rostov in time to capture Shoigu & Gerasimov detained or even shot them on sight how different Russia would have been today
That's assuming if he'd actually kill em.
@@spicychad55 while they say they both are a Ukrainian asset and their loss would actually work against Ukraine it would have provided the impetus for Moscow supporters of Prigozhin to take control of key positions but seems like Shoigu fled in a helicopter while Gerasimov hid in a safe house thwarting the plan
If Shoigu and Gerasimov had been killed, Putin might have put someone actually competent in charge. Better that they stay there.
Lukashenko has a reverse card in his hand. Maybe even a draw 4 and choose colour.
They weren't able to change the computer voice's pronunciation from "bell-air-ooce" to BELL-a-ruse. 😆😅🤣
If anyone is curious just check out the Kornilov affair,it is very much the same situation Putin even mentioned 1917 to make the irony even bigger,humans never seem to learn from history and will repeat it.
Edit: Lukashenko was choosen for 2 reasons: Because he is friend with Prigozhin for over 20 years and Putin didnt want to negociate directly with Prigozhin.
That was very well presented today, I will give credit where it's due !! I do like it when you firmly take a side.
Female voice-over thinks she's in Spain... 🤔🤔
The computer voices reading the headlines wrong bring down the quality of your content in almost every video
be-la-RUS, lady!
Good video. Lots to think about here.
Argh! Cliffhanger! :D Thanks for the video!
I think you nailed this one way ahead of the crowd. Nice work.
According to other sources and Belarus’s President. Prigozhin is still in Russia.
But he's not in Minsk, he's in Russia
When Putin's enemy go to Russia you know Putin has lose some power .
Just because the nukes are in Belarus doesn't mean they can use them.
One of the best episodes of Visual Politics lmao
The whole thing make much sense to me now.
Thanks
you are sharp…love the video…thanks
“It is better to be a dictator than gay” 😂😂😂😂
Indeed!
why not both?
It's a hilarious quote, but by no means is it one of the "It's funny because it's true" quotes
I actually really enjoyed that quite informative very insightful I guess what you would call it and look at the big picture😊
This is incredible, and hillarious.
you got me off guard on world of tanks game bro kudos to you
jesus it will certialy be interesting to see developments
App “New Belarus” is not available in Apple App Store (from within germany). Was it removed or is it an issue of censorship?
Very enlightening... not that I like the situation, but you nailed it. 😮 wow!!
Very elaborate description of events swiftly unfolding in Russia, Ukraine and Belarus.
With many twists and turns. VP's description of Lukashenko's wild card is indeed a plot twist. But I don't think it will be enough to gain leverage over Russia's Iron man Putin. Putin is an old KGB fox. He always has some trick up his sleeve.
No. James Kar-Lindsay's recent video on Belarus is *much better* in elaborating on all aspects of Belarus' position.
By the way, your “reader” and the pronunciation of Belarus… “Bull-air-is”… 900 times throughout this video
Lukashenko signed the “Union state” agreement partially because at the time he was more established and popular leader than Yeltsin, he may have thought that he would be the leader if things in Russia stayed chaotic enough.
Kinda like how at first Mussolini was considered the biggest strongman in Europe, before the late 30s.
Lukashenko is a 30 year survivor.
An experienced politician
Clever man.
Excellent video!
It really isn't.
Ruskies attacked Kiev from the Belarusian border already....if they wanted to move troops to Belarus they didn't need to stage an elaborate and embarrassing coup. They would have just moved them like they already demonstrated they can do. That theory makes ZERO sense.
Follow the money
You’ll get your answer
"Rebel forces in Bell-air-uss"
I've now heard it all.
That’s a potentially one Hell of a UNO Reverse Card
This is what i have been saying to everyone ever since the mutiny. Lukashenko lost to Putin 20 years ago, and put himself low under Putin, even said he want to be a commander in his army. But now the winds have changed, Wagner are a battle experienced Russian force, and their leader Prigozhyn is now the most wanted man in Putin’s Russia, Lukashenko welcomed him in with opened arms.. what will happen?
Most likely nothing. Neither Luka nor Putin are in their prime years. Putin wanted to reestablish the Russian empire before kicking the bucket. The war in Ukraine and getting rid of Luka are part of that plan. Similarly, Luka is probably too old to rule over Russia at this point, his only play is to strengthen the country and appoint a successor. This either means getting a loyalist to take his place after he dies, or do what Francisco did in Spain - hand over power to a democratically elected government or unifying Belarus with Russia. The Wagner situation doesn't fundamentally change any of this.
The nukes sent by Putin is a security measure incase those 2 try some funny stuff.
@@macjulien613
At least publicly Lukashenko claims he has the capacity to use them.
According to all the reporting so far Prighozhin and all his forces are still russia, and as for the nuclear weapons in Belarus, the command and control is still in Moscow so it’s not like lukashenko can use them
Bit like the Cuban missile crisis the nuckes were on Cuban soil but controlled by Moscow.
For the love of god, please put some effort into pronunciations of slavic names. It is really not that hard to read it letter by letter. This happens on all of your videos about Ukraine related topis.
100% agreed
Lmao
Who the hell is "tiskihinishkiskaya" it is "tee-ha-no-vska-ya". Like you are literally making up sounds and letters.
8:00 Svetlana Ciezhkanozhkaja😂😂😂
You literally made her from The Quiet One (Cichanouska) to The Heavy Leg (Ciężka nóżka)
It's funny to watch this episode after recent Prighozin's death.
Well explained
Really need to fix that AI voice.
Belarus is a major supplier of night vision, laser sights, binoculars and rifle and handgun scopes to the Russian Army and the civilian market worldwide. They supply components for night vision products to many first tier companies and countries. After WWII Russian forces removed all of the tools, scientist and processes for making fine optical glass lens from the Zeiss Jena factory. Just a little trivia!
I would argue this was more of a mutiny than a coup. Unless the person running the coup had grander ambitions and quit while he was ahead, and not dead, then it was a coup. Realistically, it looked like a coup because of how the mercenary group was being treated and the at best toxic relationship between the MOD and The Wagnar mercenary group.
So how come Prigozhin had been seen in Saint Petersburg lately? I really don't understand what is going on behind the iron curtain
I think we should refer to him exclusivly as "definately not gay" lukashenko 😅
I having the same thoughts, but how stable for how long will this last
Interesting that a few days before this video Luka was stating he could launch the nukes himself.
Bah-Layer-Us? Bah-Lair-Oos? 🤣🤣
Seriously? Guys come on, teach the intern to properly pronounce the name of the country that's quite literally the focus of this whole episode!
The intern is an AI who is doing this for practically free!
It's an AI
@@sud33p77well the narrator could also learn to pronounce Tsikhanouskaya.
Love your channel, but the narrator…”buh-LAIRIS”🤣🙄
Every few days this situation changes.
“Bell-air-us” 💀💀😂
You are right.
The FIRST reporter to figure out the blatantly obvious!
Ba-lair-us. I love it! Now let's start pronouncing correctly these: Bright-ain; Cun-nay-duh; Amur-ee-cuh!! Nice job. I love it when narration is done accurately.
Putin's other opponents did not have a private army and this opponent is more ruthless than Putin .
-this video was definitely thinking outside the box, excellent
-i also think there was a prior time when lukashenko had ideas on taking over putin’s job in the kremlin
-i think when putin was weak one time before, lukashenko was thinking of running in the russian election for president, he would portray himself as a savior coming in to save russia
11:23 - 12:00 That is incredible
One problem.
Both Belarus and Wagner get their weapons and Ammunition from Russia .
A unarmed Wagner and Belarus group is not even a threat to the boy scouts let alone Russia .
Russian Nukes need Russia codes from Moscow to work .
Belarus was ex-Soviet, i wouldnt be surprised if they had piles and piles of soviet weaponry and ammo stockpiled. It might not sustain a prolonged war but probably good enough for Wagner and their own forces to use as 'intimidation'.
who knows if Lukashenko was really involved in anything other than lending his name to the story. at most he was probably just a messenger because putin couldn’t/ didn’t want to talk to Prigozhin directly
There's ONES peice that doesn't doesn't fit?
😂😂 Try a thousand things, and get back to us
When we needed him most, he returned.
Ummm am I the only one who saw the dead body? 0:45 bottom right
Faith makes one blind.
So where is General Surovikin? I would like to see some live footage, with him holding a Western newspaper of today...
IT industry is around 60-100k workers, but 200k left. Funny)
This is a misguided analysis. Luveshenko has been trying to decouple himself from Russia & Putin. Where once he was open to a union with Russia. This has put him in an embrace he does not want. The last thing he needed was his fate to be tied to Putin's.
I have an alternative hypothesis:
That the whole Wagner mutiny was a charade orchestrated by the Putin and his FSB to weed out disloyal generals/chiefs and the whole "Lukashenko offering Pryghoshin and his Wagner forces sanctuary in Belarus" affair is just another way for this to be put aside for a while and forgotten, with Wagner quietly going back to business as usual after a short time.
Maybe, but the whole thing made Putin look weak. I see it more as a power play between Prigozhin amd Shoigu. A mutiny that could have turned into a coup.
Dang! Looks in the background at 00:47
4:30 That's a fact!!!😂
I keep wondering ... what if they regroup then go to Poland 🇵🇱 ?!!???
KGB agent outsmarted by chicken farmer. Ouch!
Wasn't it reported this week that Prigozhyn was back in Russia?
The video must have taken a couple of days to make
so you didnt know that prigojin met pootin few days after the mutiny
Great video, but just in regards to the nukes, I doubt Belarus has access to the codes etc to launch on their own. Yes the nukes are physically in Belarus but under control of Russian troops and presumably need codes from the Kremlin to work.
Wagner (Terrorist Organization) + Belarus (dictatorship with nukeson site) is not a good combination. 😕
It is not that easy to just use those nuclear weapons. They're still under Russian control.
Bolaris is that a new country? Never heard of it
I'm very sad to hear a digital voice, with atrocious syllable stress, in your excellent videos. It reduces the value considerably.
So, a group of rebellious mercenaries have taken refugee in a rogue state and are armed with nuclear weapons. Where the hell is Solid Snake when you need him?!
when i heard that russia sent nukes to belarus i wondered if it was an outright gift, with instruction on how to use them or if it was just being based in belarus under the control of russia. or worse if they were just bombs designed to go off if belarus needed a black eye... 🙂
they werent given to belarus, they were placed in belarus... why would putin trust belarus with control of their nukes. use your brain.
Nukes in Belarus is Putin's ace up his sleeve. If those 2 try something funny Belarus could be the second country to get nuked. Plus a nuked Belarus is a border you don't have to defend. 😁
@@adamvifrye2690
Lukashenko has discussed them as if he can launch them.
He specifically said he would not hesitate to use them if Belarus was threatened.
@@user136002 well, Putin has discussed these weapons as if they are simply based in Belarus, even using the same terminology used by the U.S. and Soviets during the Cold War, they are in a 'nuclear sharing' capacity.
What this means is the weapons are based in a non-nuclear weapon holding country and the PALs (unlock codes), are maintained with the superpower. In time of war, Russia then has the option to either use the warheads with their own platforms, or provide the warheads and codes to Belarus.
It's never as simple as 'grab a warhead, slap it on a missile and shoot.'
Russia would have to be involved in every step of the decision, and consciously decide to use or provide the warhead(s). If the situation has reached that point, then it really doesn't matter which knucklehead gets to push the button; there will be bigger things to worry about, like Civil Defense and who bought a policy with Vault-Tech.
Creasy feel like the 1900
This topic is now an obsession
Oh boy............
Hey its Red Face Yellow Teeth!! He looks like Uncle Fester of the Addams Family!
At this point idk whose gonna be thrown out of the window, Vladimir Monke or the potato peeler man.
Ya, Machiavelli once said "depend utterly and completely on mercenary forces to ensure the stability of your rule."
Call me prejudice but that line
"It's better to be a dictator than gay. " Caught me all the way off guard no pun intended
0:47 there's a picture of dead soldiers, itll be best if you crop that out.