Could Russia Lose Crimea? - VisualPolitik EN
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Ukraine dreams of regaining the Crimean peninsula. But the United States doubts that this is possible... or even desirable. Putin has made it clear that this territory is his red line for pushing the nuclear button (maybe this is yet another bluff or maybe he is serious).
For Russia, this territory has a very important strategic and symbolic value. At the same time, Ukraine cannot accept that it should remain part of Russia: at least not under the current conditions. In fact, Zelenskiy has said several times that "everything began with Crimea, and it will end with Crimea". Ukrainian society is with him.
The real question is: Is it really feasible to take Crimea back? Why is this peninsula so important for Russia? Why is the United States so hesitant on this particular issue? In this video we answer these questions.
#Crimea #Ukraine #Russia
No one is mentioning the Budapest Memorandum of 1994 where several states promised to respect the borders of Ukraine in exchange for it giving up its nuclear weapons?
@johanmalmborg191 Three countries not several; one of them being Russia. The other two are slighting honouring that agreement.
@@crose7412 What I think I mean is that it shouldn't be any doubt from the USA that Crimea belongs to Ukraine?
US, UK, Russia, China, and France all gave Ukraine security assurances in exchange for Ukraine giving up their nuclear weapons.
@@johanmalmborg191 There's no doubt of ownership yet America are weirdly still wary of Russia dropping nuclear bombs if Crimea gets retaken. It seems highly unlikely but worth the "risk" for Ukraine to keep going.
@@IM_MOUNTAIN WTH is a Naxi? And what detail did he skip? Also, Crimea had nothing to do with the Budapest Memorandum anyway, until Russia took that land, ignoring their promises. Ukraine was given that territory freely by the then govt of Russia, in the Kremlin. And Ukraine is Ukraine because they exercised their right to secede from the USSR (Russia actually, at the dissolution of the USSR) which was written into their constitution as a USSR 'member', and Russia, as a member of the Ukraine recognizing UN, had no problem with it, obviously. Enough details yet? Seems as straightforward to me as it possibly could be.
Ukraine has two advantages in retaking Crimea: 1. Crimea is water starved. 2. It's a logistical nightmare to resupply without the bridge.
You must have landed from the moon
@@deedat81 Why? because I'm smart enough to avoid detection?
The dam that was blown a few weeks ago feeds water to Crimea. Ukraine was cutting water before the escalation last year and Crimea is not a water rich area. The prevailing winds don't let rain fall get very predictably.
@@mikefranklin7347 If Russia is winning, why is Prigozhin being a traitor to Russia as Putin describes?
@@mikefranklin7347 That's the theory. But Russia is going to have huge problems when it hits Moldova. Comrade poopski really wishes Hilary in 2016.
I can't see any chances that Ukraine taking Crimea but there's a chance NATO sending thousands of troops to die
Ukraine has said it will negotiate when no Russian troops occupy their nation...
Don't negotaite with terrorists.
And this is prob a negotiation tactic as well, aim high and then both parties have to come to an agreement that both can live with.
It all depends on who holds the strongest hand
Very unlikely, because then Ukraine will be accepted into NATO. Russia will continue their attacks, to prevent that.
@@ReekyCheeksyet the US negotiated with the Taliban and ISIS lol
@@hallelbimpong1901hardy a negotiation. Trump and Biden gave them everything for nothing.
Art of the Deal 🙄
Stop with this "Russia's only warm water port" Russia has lots of land on warm water... all over the Black Sea and the Sea of Azov.... people need to read maps... Novorossiysk, Starotitarovskaya area, Mayevskiy, Vityazevo, Gelendzhik, Sochi, how about all the places on the Sea of Azov? Taganrog, Gaevka, Natal'evka, Kagal'nik, Novomargaritovo there are many places Russia can develop as a warm water port. No need to invade Ukraine....
yes, imo the main reason why russia annexed Crimea is that putin needed to serve something to his people as a "win" when his period as a president came to an end. Such technologically and scientifically backward militaristic regime can't reach anything exept success on the battlefields
Very much so and on top of that what is the value of such port on the black sea unless russia lives in peace with significant parts of the world e.g. Turkey and the Bosporus?
You don't know what you are talking about.
@@samuelmorales2344 sure that is why all the Russian lands on the Black Sea and Sea of Azov are not warm water ports... or could be made into warm water ports... mmm read a map
@@gregmchale7974 While true Russia does have other Deep Draft ports in the Black Sea but they are not naval bases. Much the same way the US does not have a naval base in every Deep Draft port. Naval bases are more strategic. It was always obvious Russians had interest in Crimea. For over 200 years Sevastopol was a trade and naval base for Russia. They annexed Crimea in 2014 after the coup in February. Before that Russia was giving discount natural gas in exchange for the lease on Sevastopol which Ukrainian nationalist opposed. Those other ports you mentioned don't have naval bases. NATO is trying to encircle Russia and get Crimea under NATO control. The Ukraine conflict is about balance of power. NATO wants Russia to continue to recede militarily, remove buffer zones, and create instability in Russia.
Totally disagree with Ukraine giving up on Crimea, if they did, Russia would continue to control the Black Sea completely be stifling Ukraine's exports. Crimea is a total deal breaker for Ukraine so they HAVE to get it back imho
Still highly unlikely
@@DHEAS11 that russia can hold onto it while NATO and their pacific allies back ukraine? I agree. Russia is buying smart appliances to get chipsets for their missiles, how much longer can they afford to do that? How much longer until the oligarch sharks seize on Putins weakness in the aftermath of the Wagner rebellion? How many more tanks can Russia have if they're using T54's? And keep in mind, the larger more complex weapons systems haven't been delivered yet, or are just arriving and Ukraine hasn't had the chance to use them in a proper combined arms force push yet. Russia is done, I knew they were paper tigers before 2014, and I've been proven right. Russia is not in the same class as the US or China, militarily.
lol what are they giving..??first of all crimea was given to ukraine illegally and russia took it back and will never surrender it ever again
It's also a deal breaker for Russia, it's a deadlock
Ukraine will get Crimea back. Until they do... Russia will continue to pay dearly.
Like many powers in the past, their confidence and arrogance can be used against them. So yes Ukraine could take back Crimea, they will just have to be unconventional and inventive in their ways about it.
They need to destroy the railways to stop the Russian supplies
Yes, I do think that Ukraine will continue to try to take Crimea. Because Russia is completely non trust worthy and so they must go.
I don't think the Crimean population would be happy
That's just wishful thinking. Crimea was not historically a territory of Ukraine. It was gifted to Ukraine by Russia that thought the whole Ukraine would be under its sphere of influence. So taking it back is so delusional and not even the US will help Ukraine destroy itself by trying to take Crimea.
You can bet that there's absolutely no part of the future where Ukraine took Crimea and lived happily ever after.
@@vervetech9395 Just you wait.
@@richay1 How long should I wait exactly?
@@vervetech9395 You'll know when it happens
When Ukraine is able to reach the first line of Russian defenses in Zaporizhzha maybe you can START to talk about this. Until then lol
Remember what happened in Kherson and Kharkiv?
@@wyringen As we can see its not the same situation.
@@alvarorecobo821 My point is the attack on Kherson was very slow to start as well and some initial setbacks occurred. Russian trolls said the same things they are saying now. In the end Russia panicked and was defeated.
@@wyringen Remember Crimia 2014? 😂
Z🇷🇺
Ukraine can't defend itself without Crimea, and Russia sees it as crucial to its defense also. For Ukraine to give up Crimea, it would need security guarantees from the west, but then it only gave up its Soviet era nuclear weapons in exchange for such promises, which set the stage for Putin annexing Crimea and then invading Kyiv. As things stand, there is no reason for either side to come to the negotiating table.
Budapest gave no security guarantees. It gave assurances. As a America its not our responsibility to defend Ukraine in any way and I look forward to voting next November for pro settlement candidates. Preferably RFK or West but if forced to pick between Trump and Biden I'll vote Trump just to end the war. Me and my friends literally don't care if Crimea is Russian or Ukrainian. My friends cant even point to it on a map. If you think we care your in for a rude awakening. The goal is to kick Biden out the Whitehouse so the war ends.
I think the threat of losing Crimea is the only thing that could bring Russia to the negotiating table.
@@NickSteffenyea but Ukraine doesn’t seem to wanna let go of idea of taking it back… maybe just turn it into a separate country nobody gets it
@@dustintacohands1107 They have to give off that vibe or Russia would never believe it was under threat. If they think for a second that Ukraine would stop short of a full on invasion of Crimea they would never negotiate for it.
@@NickSteffen it would put the world to the brink of nuclear war russia would never allow that
Crimea belongs to the Greeks
Those pesky Ancient Greeks! 😁
Great video!
Almost every war for Crimea was lost. Crimea is hard to defend, because land invasion makes Crimea an “island” which is hard to supply. Ukraine showed twice that it is able to destroy or damage Crimean bridge. The hardest part of retaking Crimea is liberating 100 km of land before its borders.
Stop using the robot voice it ruins your content
If i had a drink every time this guy says IBIZA I'd be drunk af. 😂
Or if you were actually in ibiza
@@Pistolita221or if it were spelled in Catalan, but it's not so bottoms up! 😂
Brother! great content. Kudos!
Good job with this man.
Russia got lucky with its easy annexation of Crimea in 2014. This gave it an appetite for more of Ukraine.
How were they lucky , they took it plus 20% of East Ukraine
@@deedat81 Without any fight .. or any meaningful consequences .. how do you not understand the "lucky" part of that?
@@deedat81 A "perfect" victory is one in which you never fire a shot. That is essentially what Russia got in 2014. Their attempt to repeat it in early 2022 failed spectacularly.
Went there several times long before the occupation. Nobody argued, fought, it was for relaxing, not war.Slava Ukraine. It had its own internal government making law's and rules supported by Kiev money as it's economy was primarily tourism and wine.
that actually sounds amazing.
Russian world/peace just made life of people there worse. It always does
Washington is lame for this.
I think the argument that Ukraine should respect Russian control of Crimea because Russia treats it as part of Russian territory would hold a lot more water if Putin hadn't formally annexed other regions in eastern and southern Ukraine. Unless other countries are prepared to treat all of the annexed territories (including parts that Russia has never controlled) as sovereign Russian land, it doesn't make sense to make an exception for Crimea.
What would you say if you learned that the population of Crimea really supports russians and they identify themself as russians?
@@alvarorecobo821 You mean only the ones that were there before the 2014 invasion, right? Because of course the Russians who moved in after see themselves as Russians, since they came from Russia.
Russia treating it as Russian territory shouldn't be meaningful. Like abusive ex's see their former SO (let's be honest, mostly GF) as theirs too.
Why didn't Ukraine as a "democratic country" allow a referendum to decide if they wanted to stay a part of Ukraine? Maybe they wouldn't like the answer.....
Crimea was and always will be Ukrainian. No debate.
9:57
It's not true.
Euromaidan brought hundreds of thousands of demonstrators also in Lugansk, Donetsk and other major cities. There are literally tons of videos online to prove it.
Saying "it didn't go well" over there, it's Russian demagogy
The attack on Crimea can NEVER be compared with Normandie. Crimea can be attack hundreds of KM away with Rockets and 70-150km away with Artillery. That is by no mean compareable with the 2nd ww.
What is Crimea without Ukraiane water and a bridge?
Nikita Khrushchev knew this, exactly why he transferred the territory to Ukraine
In Russia's eyes, it's a big military base and a springboard to being the main political player in the black sea
In Russia it's a symbol.....the could care less if it was a pile of ruble
@@julianbrelsford strategical unimportant since NATO has control of the Bosporus strait, Turkey is the big dog in the Black sea
well it was still crimea without those two and russians there were happy to go back to where they have always belonged
Talking about Russian expansionism in 1853, meanwhile Britain controlled a quarter of he globe at the same time...
Just adding a bit of context.
2 wrongs don´t make 1 right
@@aroace7913 But pointing out others mistake while not acknowledging yours, what do you say about that?
@@aroace7913 The narrative about Russia is extremely biased when you consider they went to war with the single two most expansive empires.
One of them whitch went to war so they could continue to sell drugs against the wishes of the country (Opium wars).
No one got hurt from nuance and a bit of context, mate.
@@shiteshchourasia
That is called whataboutism and a common tatctic for russian bots.
@@aroace7913 Still labelling it doesn't wash all imperial countries sins
Not sure about your analysis of the position with Ukraine and Crimea. I believe after 500 some odd days following this war, Ukraine must take Crimea back. That’s it! Or they loose the war and any victory they may achieve in the rest of the occupied territories.
Blinken hasn't recently said anything about Crimea other than that it's Ukraine's decision and it's their country, plus the US will support them until the war is over 🤷🏼♂️
@@ructionradius2888 Good. I was kinda wondering if the information on the video was accurate and up to date. Thanks for the clarification.
Well Ukraine has already lost over 100k dead on the battlefield. Will loose about same to push back to pre February 22 borders. Not sure they'll have the stomach for loosing same or more for Crimea alone that doesn't want to be with Ukraine. But then again I've noticed that the most uncompromising on both sides are those farthest from the actual frontline
@@DHEAS11 That’s true in all wars. The political powers run the wars from their offices and never pay any price for their actions.
Having said that, I do hope Ukraine prevails and Putin loses his power over Russia and they can try to rebuild their country and economy after this ill fated war of aggression.
Putler needs to stay away from windows above the first floor. 🤔
@@DHEAS11 Because the big wigs aren't doing the heavy lifting
YES!
Yes, they can. And they WILL!
😅😅😅 with that counteroffensive they'd be lucky if they can take 1 village by the end of September.
@@DutyStalker96 yeah, the attack in the North is kinda useless
Oh... that robot voice... so bad
Informative content and helpful analysis in a tight, effective presentation. Thank you.
8:08 - “1954… most logical way to send resources to Crimea is through Ukraine”
This seems logical, but just because something is physically the case, is not the reason Kruschev moved Crimea to Ukraine.
You really needed more information than what you provided, to explain a real documented reason for Crimea’s return to Ukraine.
"You see, Russian expansion is not a new thing", while talking about British and French armies invading territory of Russian Empire. Can't make this up. 😅😅😅
Territory that Russia stole from TUkrey, who stole it from Kevian Rus. We can play the very same game that La Raza loves to play regarding Texas and California.
Russian empire is falling
to permanently disable the bridge they need to target the pillars
Crimea under Ukraine after 1991 always had a quasi independant status with its own legislature .. I was there often.. a man I knew in Kherson told me he was buying apartments but would not buy in Crimea because Russia was going to take it back one day ..
It was an autonomous province taken away from Russia in 1954 by a Ukrainian USSR leader Nikita Khruscov who took Crimea from Russia and gave it to Ukraine without any referendum.
lol you know nothing,,those ukraops silenced anyone who said crimea is russia
@@mdza yes, because Crimea is supplied best from Ukrainian territory. Without the irrigation infrastructure in Ukraine, Crimea has become a water starved desert peninsula. Ukraine having control over Crimea is what makes the most sense to meet the logistical realities of the region
@@briant5685 Russia had all the right of the world to retain it back in 1991 but didn't do it.
@@beatreuteler it was kinda falling apart all over, sooo
Crimea is easiest to get if west support. If Putin love Crimea then the moment he sees Crimea going he will rush to negotiation. Russia can't use nuclear because Russia can't afford lose it's only left alliance ( India and China)
@5:46 Looks like a mobile home!
😂
Russia has no Business being in Crimea!!!
Without time limit, everything is possible.
I can't imagine Crimea being a micronation, it's too important strategically to not be under direct control of a superpower. Ukraine will get Crimea, it's entirely possible Russia implode before the end of the war, or that the Russian armed forces in Crimea mutiny or surrender once they realize they're properly stranded (jammed radio silence, cut off from resupply of food, amo, etc.)
An "independent" Crimea will not be independent for long: it will likely become a Russian puppet. The only acceptable outcome is for Crimea to remain Ukrainian.
Russia is not superpower.
Wow I didn’t know people can be this deluded about Russia 😂
@@jaylam Fun facts: three U.S. states have larger economies than Russia: California ($3.1 trillion), Texas ($1.78 trillion) and New York ($1.7 trillion).
And California’s GDP is more than twice the GDP of Russia.
It's doubtful radio communication will ever be cut off, but much more plausible that Crimea would be cut off from meaningful quantities of food/water/ammo/weapons imports
The Russian troops in Kherson could only hold on temporarily once Ukraine made concerted attacks against their bridge/ferry supply lines
The only way you get to negotiations is to present the possible worse option. This almost certainly means there will be a battle for Crimea.
I really like the hosts takes
One of your best videos
No matter. Ukraine is coming for Crimea. Come Nuclear or not, Zelenskyy is as stubborn as Putin, once they set their mind on something, nobody can change their mind. The unannounced deadline set by Zelenskyy is by the next summit. Meaning to say that the main force of Ukraine counter offensive will reveal itself somewhere around by the end of this year to fully retake Crimea.
Please get out of your mom's basement and see how the counter offensive is going on right now
If Ukraine allows this land to be ceded to Russia, Russia has a great island to conduct air raids, operate a fleet, etc. on the coast of Ukraine. It also emboldens Russia to try again after they regroup, because Ukraine "respected" russian annexation by invasion already. This is more about sending a message and strategic geographic locations for territorial sovereignty than it is about being stubborn imo for Ukraine. This entire war was a vanity project for Putin.
Stubborn with others money and weapons? Che zelensky will do what’s he is told or be cut off-let’s see how ‘grateful’ he can be
@@Pistolita221 lol Ukraine has nothing to surrender here, they were just given Crimea illegally and once the west overthrew the government of Ukraine Russia took it back forever
@@briant5685 Ruzzia signed the Budapest memorandum in 1994 confirming that Crimea belongs to Ukraine, thereby giving up any legal claim to it. If the orcs thought that Crimea should be Ruzzian, then they shouldn't have signed the treaty. But as it stands now, Ruzzia has absolutely 0 legal claim to it.
Washington is quite clearly in support of retaking Crimea 😂 the counter offensive is aimed directly at cutting off Crimea and taking it back.
Lol, its actually not. Blinken has stated to US congress quote "Kyiv may want to think about using diplomacy instead of military offensives in trying to take back some parts of its territory." which is clearly a hint at Crimea. The US has also refused to supply Ukraine with long range weapons like ATACMS to directly hit the bridge. "The West" considers Crimea to be a red line for Putin at which point WMD use becomes a tangible threat so they are (to quote France 24) reluctant to endorse the Crimea project.
@@antonk.2748 what date is this statement from? It's old. You can see quite clearly from the map that Ukraine's counter offensive is aimed at Crimea and evidently supported by US intelligence.
Pahahaaa it’s an old enough “quote” that Blinken isn’t even part of the US government
@@ructionradius2888 That statement was made on the 23rd of March this year. And how do you know its old if you didnt know when it was from? It almost seems like you are intepreting the data you obtain based on the views you already have? Well, you can clearly see from the map that Ukraines counteroffensive is aimed at reaching the black sea and cutting off the Russian supply lines, everything else is your interpretation. That is ofc helping a potential future invasion of Crimea but that doesnt mean the US is wholeheartedly supporting that. Just like someone might have my back when I get beaten up in a barfight but they are not that keen on helping me follow the guy home and torching his car...
@@antonk.2748 The UK and France has supplied storm shadow and the French equivalent both of which have a similar range. The US has also stated that they are considering supplying ATACAMS so your argument doesn't make sense.
I like this guy's English speaking, not sure if he's British or not, but I like his accent way more
Is the video slightly sped up? The guy seems to be very jittery and fast lol
I always find these videos odd. If Ukraine gets to the point Crimea is even on the table, that means Ukraine has reached the coast. If theyre at the coast, the Kerch Bridge is gone. Ukraine won't even need western help, they can use the domestically made Neptune missiles. The moment that bridge goes, crimea is lost. It'll run out of supplies and since Russia blew up the dam, will eventually starve because its entire irrigate system is gone.
The moment Crimea even comes into serious contention, that means Russia already lost it and will be negotiating peace to keep it from a position of weakness.
Possible but Not necessarily! Remember Russians are stocked up and fortified! If Ukraine makes it to the coast it will be exhausted and forces depleted and then Russia still has some of the most capable missile and air defense and electronic warfare systems and they can intercept rockets and missiles while holding out and ferrying over small amounts of supplies still!
@robvett8584 it doesn't matter how tired they are they can just wait. Ukraine is proving on a daily basis it can hit crimea already whatever defences are there. And once the bridge is gone it's only a matter of time until those defences are out of missiles.
Large vessels will be struck by the domestically made Neptune missiles. Small ones won't be able to carry nearly enough and will be attacked by drones and precision artillery.
If Ukraine reaches the coast. Its over for crimea. Its just a matter of time.
@@Talshere88 what I was saying is by the time they make it to the coast but more so if their even able too they would barely have a man left to hold it and would just be taken back by the battered n weakened Russian forces from both directions! It’s not really feasible as of right now with the way it’s been going and the amount of losses they’ve taken in lives and materials it’s just not sustainable and thus may not be possible right now! They are only as good as the amount of limited reserves and ammunition they currently have! And so if they made it to the coast they wouldn’t be able to hold it for long and Russia would just bomb any new factories that make these domestic Neptune rockets as they have been recently bombing rear positions, ports, facilities, bridges and targets they’ve haven’t hit before! God knows why they waited so long but aye!
@@Talshere88 I know it was a what if-hypothetical scenario but I was still making my opinionated analysis based on the way the offensive was going right now in real time and statistics! They lost 30% of their new advanced western equipment and significantly large amount of lives dead, wounded and captured! In just it’s first week or two! Then they adapted to a more strategic approach based on mainly attritional warfare targeting of rear areas and GLOC from command and control, supply and logistics, ammo depots, weapons systems like tanks, armored and transport vehicles, air defense, radar stations, artillery and rocket launchers, but also most importantly trenches, fortifications and personnel dug in on the frontline but also the 2nd and 3rd defensive lines as well! While conducting small scale small unit based operations and probing attacks backed by fire support! And now just few days ago threw the last of their remaining experienced units, new reserves, advanced tanks, armored & infantry fighting vehicles and massive artillery cover an precision strikes in a major last effort thrust to break through! In the The fog of a war there hasn’t been any major information regarding their success or the offensive in general but there hasn’t been any breakthrough or loss of territory as of rn from any source so it not looking good
Any general seriously thinking about storming crimea is out of their mind. It’s just way too defensible. The best path to retaking Crimea is a long protracted siege
Blow the bridge and turn off the water. Ukrainians have time, those in Crimea... not so much.
Well the water supply was cut when that dam blew up. Crimea has reservoirs, but not enough to last for years.
That bridge needs to be attacked at the pilings, that will take a long time to repair.
The land route - through Russian occupied territories - can be harrassed with long range missiles.
“As Russian as Saint Pietersburg itself”
- Stolen land that they repopulated with their own people, sounds about like Saint Pietersburg.
All I can say to Ukraine on taking Crimea back is good luck
Short answer: No.
Long answer: No, but pretend I wrote more words.
For those who say: "Just negotiate." It's easier said than done. Trying telling Putin to abandon Crimea and the Donbas. Maybe Russia is willing to concede, but not Putin.
Given the " spring " offensive, maybe giving up Crimea would be a negotiating point to end the killing of men on both sides? It's not like Ukraine would have a chance if it wasn't for the western alliance supporting them!
Why would they give up crimea it was given to Ukrainian to make them happy after Soviet Union starved 20 million people to death Russia never seen crimea as part of ukrain only as a gift
@@abdallemadar5658 They could give it back to make Ukraine happy again, considering they've killed tens of thousands of Ukrainian civilians.
@@abdallemadar5658 the famine was in the soviet union area, and wen't from west across Russia to Siberia. Not only in that particular area.
Is getting it back, worth the loss of lives lost on both sides on a weekly basis? Sometimes it's not worth the last 5 %. Unless of course your in the gym, pushing weights.
It is absolutely worth it in for a penny in for a pound. Russia started the war and Ukraine has lost so many people to protect their sovereignty it would be a spit in the face of the dead if Ukraine is not able to unify its borders and Crimea is a massive strategic location for commercial and military purposes
Could have mentioned the pre-2014 surveys in Crimea, as well as the 1991 referendum in which the Crimeans voted for independence. The surveys showed that although many Crimeans identified as Russians, they also increasingly identified Ukraine as their motherland. Crimea used to be an autonomous republic with a high degree of self rule. Of course that has all gone now.
Short Answer : No
Detailed Answer : No
If Crimea is such a separate entity from Ukraine, maybe the Soviets should have, you know, made it a separate entity?
The Soviet leaders made it part of Ukraine because the Soviet leaders were Ukrainians.
Did you realise Russia moved its Black Sea fleet from Sevastopol to Novorossiysk?.
Without taking back Crimea, this war and the lives affected would be in vain.
So in the whole history of Ukraine i heard tatars ottomans and russians i didnt hear anything related to Ukraine so
Why Ukraine is claiming Crimea in fact Turkey has more legitimacy to claim Crimea than Ukraine
They own it on a mere legal technicality. Apparently that's all it takes.
Ottoman empire didnt exist anymore
That bridge 🌉 will fall
In answer to your headline question - YES!!!!!!
Why people dont include the Budabest agreement?????
The opinion of the inhabitants of Crimea needs to be viewed from the perspective that, if Ukraine lays siege to the area, there is likely to be a mass exodus.
You seriously think that Putin cares what people think?
@@michaeldunham3385Not Putin , Zelensky
Russia snow birds aren't going to stay to fight.
@@hallelbimpong1901 and you know that because?
Let's be clear Putin has invaded Ukraine, Russians are dying and the economy is collapsing and for what exactly?
Now you explain to me why you think Putin cares about what Russians think given this disastrous pointless war?
Of people born there? Wouldn't count on that
Good analysis as always.
I think the status of Crimea as Ukrainian is too vital for Ukraine and Russia for any “demilitarised independent state” to work.
Without a military, Crimea will forever be vulnerable to another Russian invasion.
With a military, an independent Crimea would pose a military risk of invasion for Ukraine. Particularly if the Russians keep meddling with its politics and it retains a largely Russified population.
Both would pose constant concern for Ukraine. Both would restrict Ukraine’s recovery.
Both Russia and Ukraine need its warm water ports and strategic position.
So I can’t see any half hearted compromise working.
For Kiev, Crimea is crucial to ensuring its existence, security, and stability. Kiev not only wants Crimea back, but if they can’t have it they must make it basically impossible for the Russians to use it.
But they don’t have to invade Crimea to do that. They just have to cut of the supplies from Russia. Destroy the bridge and any traffic from Russia to Crimea. Exhaust the Russians there until they surrender. The problem is Kiev doesn’t yet have the means to make this happen. It needs more equipment, more military manufacturing of arms and armaments inside Ukraine, more air power, more defensive and offensive missile capabilities, and it needs to take back the rest of mainland Ukraine so it can militarily command and dominate the Sea of Azov and the peninsula. But, just reaching Melitopol may break the Russian forces, and make reclaiming all but Crimea quickly possible.
If Ukraine can do that, they won’t need to sue for peace or give up Crimea. They won’t be so dependent on EU or US military aid either. They just have to make it too painful for the Russians to keep, then wait. At some point the Russians will break, and either leave, or surrender, or die from disease and starvation. And very likely by the time this happens there will be no more Putin.
The disastrous Ukraine counter offensive is a colossal failure resulting in thousands of deaths and injuries for Ukraine. They are losing the best tanks France has to offer. Thinly armored US Bradley fighting vehicles are obsolete coffins operating in areas covered by cheap and plentiful drones. The US Army Abrams tanks are nowhere to be seen thus far. The reason is these tanks use a turbine engine that runs with a very hot exhaust temperature easily detected with thermal imaging anti tank weapons. They burn aviation fuel fuel at a very rapid rate and must be refueled more frequently than traditional diesel powered tanks. Russia is now on the march to take more territory used as buffer zone much like the demilitarized zone in Korea. I love how the bought-and-paid congressional military industrial complex msm clowns are now parsing words finally realizing Ukraine has no hope against a building Russian power. US F16's will do no better even if Ukraine pilots learn to fly them with some degree of efficiency. Ask any US airforce F16 pilot and they will tell you they would dread flying into contested airspace with Russian S-300's and S-400's scanning the skies. F16's are 35+ year old 4th gen fighter/bombers that would be like pigeons brought down with shotguns. Consider them as a one-sortie fighter. Just the facts people. Stop listening to these ridiculous propaganda media channels. They are full of lies, deception, and distortion. The proxy war fate is sealed in Russia's favor and Ukraine is bankrupt.
Impossible to retake the peninsula. And it’s not because of lack of ammunition. The fort lines built by Russia army is almost impossible to overcome.
And… you obviously have very little knowledge of Russian stamina if you think that struggles with supplies will make them surrender. Did you follow the fate of Donbass and those Russian who live there? Their problems are way more horrible that lack of supplies but very few of them would agree to surrender to Ukraine. The same was about the war in Chechnya: it required enormous sacrifices and lasted 10 years with very little progress, but it didn’t make Russians to make a step back.
@@bachelor3846 Russian conscripts prefer life. Especially if they're not getting food, water, first aid and medical care, ammo, and pay.
None of this is true. The Crimea parliament has voted to stay with Ukraine at every possible instance.
When Ukrainians voted for independence 66% of Crimea voted yes!
When Ukraine voted to uphold the new (old) constitution in 2014 after the Euromaidan protests almost 60% of Crimea voted yes.
There was another key vote that I don’t remember right now where Ukraine voted to uphold their existence as a integral part of Ukraine as opposed to initiating independence procedure.
Crimea, New California, was left out. That New California project was the main reason why Khrushchev, who was Ukrainian, give Crimea to Ukraine.
If their offensive hadn't been a failure then maybe. They're likely to lose Kharkov in some months.
Where have I heard that before? Oh yeah, the presumed fall of Kiev. Just like then you people vastly underestimate the Ukrainians.
@@davidford3115 The Ukrainians have reported that 100k Russian troops have been amassed in that direction with 900 tanks, not only that but the Russians do have air superiority as well as artillery superiority. Recently they secured a bridgehead moving towards that direction that is 5km long. Keep up with the war boomer.
@@davidford3115 Nah you just underestimate the Russians so much that you don't see this absolute massacre of Ukrainians as something actually taking place.
With the horrible impact of the current war on Russian international status and economy, and the post-war support to Ukraine and Ukraine's international status - particularly likely EU links - many of the Crimean citizens may start considering a change of national identity a good idea, and contact relatives who fled to Ukraine during the Russian invasion.
As if Ukraine is doing any better.
Crimea's economy has been in decline since 2014.
Brics+. Ever heard of it?
@@gavasiarobinssson5108 BRICS:
*China's economy is like 80% of the association
*India doesn't like China
*China doesn't like India
*South Africa is a failed state
*Brazil is negotiating a trade deal with the EU, while no is talking about Russian trade
*BICS countries have more trade ties with the West than Russia, and they will always prefer those ties to the Russian basket case.
The vast majority of Crimeans are pro Russian. Most of them are fine with the Russians being there. Whatever the Western media said about it, most of them voted to remain part of Russia. Same goes for Lugansk and Donetsk.
The possible solution: wait until Putin isn't a factor anymore, I'm sure that's something being considered
Maybe Svestapol could be given up as a Russian exclave and then Ukraine takes the remainder of Crimea.
At first Ukraine should take Melitopol. Then it would be a question of price. Is Ukraine ready to lose a big part of male population in order to take territory where they arent welcome?
Who said that Ukrainians are not welcome in Ukraine? Russians?
Russia are less welcome!?!
The real question is "Does anyone think ruzzia can hold onto Crimea", NOT can Ukraine take their lands back.
The disastrous Ukraine counter offensive is a colossal failure resulting in thousands of deaths and injuries for Ukraine. They are losing the best tanks France has to offer. Thinly armored US Bradley fighting vehicles are obsolete coffins operating in areas covered by cheap and plentiful drones. The US Army Abrams tanks are nowhere to be seen thus far. The reason is these tanks use a turbine engine that runs with a very hot exhaust temperature easily detected with thermal imaging anti tank weapons. They burn aviation fuel fuel at a very rapid rate and must be refueled more frequently than traditional diesel powered tanks. Russia is now on the march to take more territory used as buffer zone much like the demilitarized zone in Korea. I love how the bought-and-paid congressional military industrial complex msm clowns are now parsing words finally realizing Ukraine has no hope against a building Russian power. US F16's will do no better even if Ukraine pilots learn to fly them with some degree of efficiency. Ask any US airforce F16 pilot and they will tell you they would dread flying into contested airspace with Russian S-300's and S-400's scanning the skies. F16's are 35+ year old 4th gen fighter/bombers that would be like pigeons brought down with shotguns. Consider them as a one-sortie fighter. Just the facts people. Stop listening to these ridiculous propaganda media channels. They are full of lies, deception, and distortion. The proxy war fate is sealed in Russia's favor and Ukraine is bankrupt.
@@Kaatu-barada-nikto The disastrous Russian offensive against Ukraine showed the world how pitiful, corrupt, and incompetent the Russian military is.
That AI voice pronouncing 'Crimea', though... xD
For sure they must advance to the Sea of Azov and cut the land bridge to isolate Crimea. That's how eventually Crimea will fall.
Crimea MUST be retaken for this war to end. If Russia retains it, it means any "peace" is temporary until the Russian military can rebuild and try to take all of more of Ukraine again. Russia controlling Crimea means that they also control any shipping going to or from Ukrainian ports. Russia retaining Crimea also rewards Russian aggression.
Russia will forever control Crimea
There's a better option: Russia wins, Ukraine is totally destroyed and dismembered by its neighbours, case closed, everyone enjoys peace
First
Please don't let this robovoice try to say Crimea
Please!
"Kray-mah-ah" lol fucking hell
Of course we are going to get it back, why even ask?
Surely Khrushchev giving Crimea to Ukraine SSR in 1954 is worth headlining at the top.
Remember we're talking about a time when it was all the Soviet Union
It's multiple lies in singe statement. 1, Crimea was removed from Ukraine just 30 years before that, so it returned. 2, Khrushchev was nobody at time, when Crimea passed back. Crimea was given back to Ukraine by Malenkov. 3, Russians performed genocide of native Crimeans, then replaced them by Russians. These Russians are from wet lands and swamps, so they have no idea, how to raise food in arid climate, so hunger started, thus they requested help and Malenkov forced Ukraine to help the invaders.
It wasn't given, it was an exchange.
@@markmd9exchange for what?
@@jevgenijs39 land for land
Russia may see Crimea as distinct from Ukraine, but well...so what? Crimea voted to be a part of Ukraine when the USSR was dissolved, and the native population, Crimean Tatars, choose overwhelmingly to be part of Ukraine. As for how Ukraine can take Crimea - from the Russian perspective, Crimea is functionally an island. Ukraine doesn't need to storm it, they just need to besiege it.
No it didn't. 😂 it voted for independence from soviet Union not to join ukraine.
Crimeans celebrated in 2014
@@skp8748 Yeah, I suspect your "Crimean celebrations" were staged just like Russia was going to do when they marched into Kiev. Look up what a Potemkin Village is.
@@skp8748 These clowns love to gaslight huh?
U wrong at 1st sentence it did not voted for it
Turkey is jealous of Russia Crimea is more important than the Bosphorus.Russian politic said this
Talking about how Ukraine taking Crimea is like talking about how Russia taking Kiev. Both too far from current situation on front line
Please 'can' the distracting shutter noise between photos.
it began with 2014 coup
You are actually wrong, it began with a pro Russian Ukrainian president who not only endorsed rampant corruption and funneling of the countries wealth into his own pocket to finance his mansions (so he probably got on well with Putin) but also tried to scrap the EU association deal wich many, especially young, Ukrainians saw (rightly so) as their president selling their economic future down the river to appease Russia.
You missed the period of the Ukrainian People's Republic in the video, when Ukrainian troops entered Crimea. At that time, it was part of the UPR. It is wrong to start the history of Ukrainian Crimea from the 50s of the 20th century. You also forgot to mention that there were settlements in Crimea during the times of Kyivan Rus
Ottomans Britsh and French were like, LETS COLONIZE.
Couple hundred years later... Now
You pronounce the city name "SEVASTOPOL" wrong: you make stress on 2nd, like "sevAstopol" but originally the stress should be on 3rd: "sevastOpol"
imagine thinking words in English are pronounced the same way they are in Russian 🤡🤡🤡
Russia can lose Crimea only if Ukraine will have a very strong army and the will to fight to the end.
True red pill is - does it really worth it? Crimea has pretty much Russian population, now Ukraine has a strong anti-Russian rhetoric. Too divisive. If the want to get Crimea and integrate it, this has to be something non-military. War has to stop.
@@simpleman7203 The Russian population could be forced to emigrate to Russia if Ukraine gets back Crimea.
@@dragosstanciu9866 Applying the Russian tradition of expulsion to Russians.😂
Nonsense. Ukraine can starve Russians out of Crimea. 🌻💀🌻
Slava Ukraine. 🇺🇦🇬🇧
Ukraine lost 90% of its EEZ, thus Ukraine needs to take back Crimea.
Naaaa Russia already lost and collapsed, Putin already assassinated last year. CNN told me so, and I must believe CNN, the most "trusted" name in news.
Do you have any realistic logistical suggestions on how that's possible?
@@SeptikAvenger Seige it and advance slowly. It's joined to Ukraine. That means that it will be harder for Russia to resupply than for Ukraine to invade from their own lands.
@@Randomstuffs261 I said realistic. They can't even advance slowly through Zaporozhye.
Delusional
If you take back what the thief stole it's a red line for the thief 😂😂😂😂
What is up with the weird AI sounding womans voice doing the headlines, it's so jarring.
Considering Russia is in the middle of completely ignoring the Budapest Memorandum, which it signed, I have trouble believing that negotiations can settle anthing now. The Ukrainian government simply cannot count on the Russian government to actually abide by any terms.
Well, without negotiations', the war will just not end. Will be a frozen conflict. Ukraine doesnt have the ability to enforce its will upon their enemy. And, a frozen conflict will be to Russias benefit. With massive amounts of western money being used to prop Ukraine up forever, the war stopping the joining of EU or NATO. 40 million people vs around 120 million people.
Funny how people conveniently ignore that Russia has violated every agreement it ever made with independent Ukraine.
Simple and straight forward answer is "no way". Ukraine cant take Crimea by force it is impossible. Just look at the progress of counter offensive, they didn't even make it to the main russian defense line after loosing 20% to 30% of there force.
Don't count your eggs before they hatch. Same thing was said about the defense of Kiev. They said the same thing about Kherson. One thing you people keep doing is grossly underestimate the Ukrainains.
I don't think this is even feseable anymore
I thought the city on Crimea is called Sevastopol not Sebastopol
After watching the counter attack I'd say no. they just don't have enough troops
Don't counter your eggs before they hatch. Ukraine always said their counter-attack was going to be slow and methodical. A Kherson style rather than Karkov.
@davidford3115 ya but this is to slow as an American we want to see progress. I think we're gonna lose interest if they don't cut the Russian lines in half by fall
@@jeremypuckett9533 Ukraine tried to set expectations low. The Russians will try to claim anything less than a rapid breakthrough is a failure. The Land battle for Guadalcanal in WW2 was several months long.
CRIMEA WIll be Retaken by Ukraine- nNo Negotiations whatsoever..period.--Thanks for a fantastic history on the peninsula of Crimea-extremely Informative, Telling & most of all Thought Provoking..--excellent Video as ever VisualPolitik EN.
Slava Ukraine. 🇺🇦🇬🇧
😂😂😂😂ok
@@iamsorryforbeingrudebefore1626 You know it makes me so happy, and I'm sure that you'll agree, that all that Cold War military equipment is being used for what it was originally intended - to kill Russians. After all you have to admit, the only good Russian is a dead Russian, but I'm sure you know that. 🌻💀🌻
Like I said before, Slava Ukraine. 🇺🇦🇬🇧
It's not going happen
Y’all won’t get back Crimea lol (still have a long way to go) and it belongs to Russia.
Visual Politik needs a dental plan
Tatar and Tartar - not the same, go check it
Just a thought: I would not bet on a Russian nuclear threat. Zelenski has had enough time, they have the material, and lots of knowledge and scientists to make a little toy of their own. Or two. And they are close enough to Moscow to drive it in or use other means. My guess is it would be used in back channels to get Putin to back off any such threat.
We should be more worried about whether Ukraine could remain as a country albeit reduced in size than be contemplating retaking Crimea.
Yes
Russia will not lose Crimea. Russia will not lose the war. You should watch Scott Ritter and Colonel Douglas Macgregor view and opinion.
Yes Ukraine can!!!!!!!! Awesome video 📹 buds!!! Slava Ukraine 🇺🇦
The counteroffensive?