ฝัง
- เผยแพร่เมื่อ 13 ก.ค. 2024
- Download Bet Angel if you want to use the tool mentioned at the end of this video: -
www.betangel.com/trial/
If you want to learn how betting odds are created by bookmakers. This video will be perfect for you as it shows in detail how to create a set of betting odds for the winner of a Tennis match.
If you are sports betting or picking up some betting tips then you are probably looking for value. If you use these instructions you can compare your modelled odds to the betting odds on offer and see if there is value.
If you are Betfair trading, then you will have come up with some type of Betfair Tennis trading strategy and that will involve open and closing a position and benefiting from the price movement.
Therefore you face the same question, what will the odds be?
To solve the issue, you need to have some idea of what the odds will be and some basis for doing that. So we go into depth here with a simplistic model.
I also mention the football-related videos I have done in this video and you can find them on this playlist: -
• How to analyse, bet an...
Key points in this video: -
00:00 - Me playing Tennis!
00:48 - Why do you need a Tennis model?
03:41 - Looking at ATP tour stats
04:51 - Key ATP statistics that we are going to use
05:20 - What is the chance of winning a point on serve?
08:05 - What is the chance of winning a game?
12:20 - Working out the odds for all scenarios and the match
17:20 - My epic Tennis skills
#tennis #prediction #bettingtips - กีฬา
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The reality in tennis trading is that even if you calculate and calculate, none of that works when on the court you are seeing that your player is having a bad day, tennis trading is a strategy, but not before a live game, you can make a idea but not ensuring anything or wanting this or that to win, for the one who has to win to win and that of course that is where we have put money
Hi I would love a video showing how you work out the rest of the probability chances out for winning-15 etc would really appreciate it I’m not the best with equations etc lol thank you
I'll add that to the request list.
Is it possible to scrape the I.e. % of points won on serve instead of manually entering it in for every match as I find this awesome but very time consuming when any model data is basically available on the WTA and ATP sites?
Yes, somebody has done it on the forum - forum.betangel.com/viewtopic.php?f=31&t=22934
Hi, thanks for the video, the calibration tool is a little confusing.It's normally set at 0.65 (as I recall) per player .If one player starts to dominate are you supposed to increase their number ?If so, by how much ? And what does 0.65 mean ? I have noticed when trying to frame a trade the predicted odds can be up to 10 ticks' out ' , so obviously I may not be using it correctly.Although I do calibrate it every few mins ...
This is where it gets a little tricky as particpants in the market are constantly re-pricing the market all the time. So I acutally prefer to see the deviation from the inital price to see what people are doing.
It's impossbile for the model to match the odds you see in the market, because of the momentum people are discounting. But also there are 351 ticks in a market, but there is only 100%, so even a minor shift in % means you will be a few ticks out. That's sort of inevitable.
Do you have any tips for FanDuel?
Great video btw.👍
Sorry, no. I've never used FanDuel, yet!
how do i get in touch with you
I dind't get how the calculation for the winning to 15 was made? Can you explain, I thougt it would be the .7064^5 ? Also shouldn't we include the return % of the other player as a factor in?
The chance of winning a point on serve already accounts for the ability to return.
We were only calculating the chance of a game to love.
betangel not connect by vpn why sir.
i am from Bangladesh i use betfair vpn......
than how can use ur app
This can depend on where your account is registered. Have you tried a VPS?
Have you taken into consideration the average ranking of previous opponents?
The #100 ranked player could win 90% of his service game against weaker opponents in ATP250 tournaments, then be invited to an ATP500 tournament and statistically have a better serve % against a (stronger) opponent who has been consistently playing against the top 50 players in the rankings.
Sorry - meant to start out by saying thanks for compiling the video, excellent insight into calculating odds of winning from this viewpoint.
There is a deeper level to this and that would be to take the service stats from one player and adjust for the return ability of the opponent. But that's another video!
There are actually lots of refinements you can make on this, so really the only limit is your imagination.
Ok
Why doesn't Bet angel advise : Fault, let, injury time out like other software?
We can, but haven't had that many requests for it.
Worthless without a rigged match column 😉
If Betfair can provide a feed for it, we will put it in the product.
You are wrong...you just try to sell the tennis ad-on on the software.You don't need to know what odds will gone be...is usless.The odds will be or not is simple as that.Whats the difference if you know before?
I've told you in this video how to price odds in a market, how to predict the chance of a winner. Can't do much more than that!
Statistics doesn't matter much in tennis any given day an underdog can make favourite cry. It doesn't work that way. In any match when lots of money comes in into a player that player loose. Because all matches are fixed
Model is good but this guy is too long winded. He repeats things multiple times instead of just being straight to the point.
The world is so impatient nowadays!
No android apps?
Niether Andriod or Apple will allow us to charge for an app so we have zero development budget for those platforms.
But you can use a VPS to access Bet Angel via a smartphone - www.betangel.com/vps/