our education system is completely destroyed: draining the savings of middle classes...parallel fees to coaching classes ...over population..unhealthy zero knowledge based schooling...
But India is right now in the low-income category. The question should be - will India be able to move to the middle-income category first? Average monthly income in India (2022; nominal): Self-employed: Rs 11,973 Regular salaried: Rs 19,010 Casual: Rs 8,267 Distribution of employment in India (2022): Self-employed: 55.8% Regular salaried: 21.5% Casual: 22.7% Source: ILO
The Pareto principle can also be used to explain middle-income. If you cannot rank among the top 20% of the world's advanced productivity, then you cannot earn high profits from middle/low income countrys and can only work as developed countrie's sweatshopsand with low profits . The world's population is now 8 billion, which means there is only 1.6 billion(20%) room for developed(rich) population. Western countries (the United States, Europe, Japan, and South Korea) have 1 billion, China has 1.4 billion, and India has 1.4 billion. China + US already 1.6 billion , so that's why those country are fighting with China. China is replaceing them. India think u can done better than china if u guys are in this sitution? Politically, Using Western democracy. Inefficiency Externally, it is always want to challenging China and Pakistan. even start to challenging Canada. not stable. Internally lot of landlords, big capitalists and Muslims .Chaos, division. Economically cannot use China's cheap product/technology(ideological problem) to finish industrialization ,only can relies on Japanese, Korean and EU companies with expensive price. Service industry are actully serves the West. So my view is India only will be a middle incoming country finally,India's target is squeeze the middle income share with EU/Japan/South Korea. Or Replace US or China for final goal. So which share India want to take over and How? The Pacific Ocean(world) is big enough to contain China and the United States, But Asia(world) is small not enough to contain China and India at same time.
We will continue to artifically inflate our GDP by making more and more Vande Bharat Trains,Bullet Trains ,High Value Infrastuctre which common public does not have access to. High Value Defence Products which do not result in public good.
You don't know that over 25% of African countries have higher per capita than India. Botswana is $ 6.708, Equatorial Guinea is $ 5.453, and many others.
USA is 21 trillion right now. India is 4 trillion today. 55 trillion in 2047, what a joke. These jokers aimed at 5 trillion in 2019, it’s 2024 now 😂😂😂. Get the low hanging fruit at least, then talk about 2047. Seriously, To get a job in Modi government, you don’t need education. You need to be have some stamp from foreign, be mediocre and be loud enough to shout propaganda .
Compounding is the 8th wonder of the world- Einstein. He is making an argument on sustaining the high growth rates of 7-10% which will result in the magic of compounding which will result in GDP reaching the levels of $10s of trillions. If we were having this argument even 10-20 years back, we would similarly be astonished at prediction of India becoming a $5T economy. But it is right now- because of compounding. Thats exactly how China did it (by 8-10% compounding over 20 years). If India does not get into socialist and other traps, continue to evolve our economy, we should achieve it as well. Its not a guarantee of course, its not inevitable, but doable with the right policies and incentives.
Poodle of big corporations is again defending Black Farm Laws under which the Ambanis and Adanis were to be handed over the lands of Haryana, Punjab and later of all states.
He sounds like one of those regime apologists who will be blaming Nehru in 2047 when India’s “developed country” dreams are shattered - before declaring that we are developed anyways.
Only few oligarchs will become more rich and then average out their income on total population and consider that country and its people have become rich? Stupid argument. Indian is not even in Middle income. India is in lower middle income group.
Typical diplomat talking style of being sweet and wearing a meaningless smile saying things everything is perfect, while doing those power games in behind…can’t buy a word THIS guy says!
India shouldn't be compared to the U.S. or other developed Western countries, nor to China. A fair comparison would be with countries like Brazil. The $55 trillion figure is misleading. I'm concerned that India's exports are limited to a few agricultural products, while it relies heavily on imported technologies, making it more of a consumer rather than an innovation hub!
Is he an economist or is a athlète preparing for next olympic ! Jumping from 5 trillion economy to 55 trillion in less than 20 years is an athleletic jump 😅
It will never happen. All BJP guys do is speak rubbish and then justify it with foolish reasoning. It's no wonder they couldn't complete any of their promises since 2014. They are nothing but crooks !
This interview is a clear example of the intellectual depth in public intellectuals that is dying a slow death in India. Far from a balanced view point, the book will only be worse.
Hope we don't get into a lower income trap.. Our projected GDP growth rate is a fallacy. We are actually growing by 2% only if inflation is adjusted. Again, the north south divide is growing at an alarming rate. Peninsular India is growing faster than the BIMARU states at its own esteem and not because of central support.
So this was the brain behind Modi’s farm laws under which 750 farmers died. Ask him if poverty has declined then why 5 kg ration is given to 80% of population of India.
You don't know that over 45% of African countries have higher per capita than India. Botswana is $ 6.708, Equatorial Guinea is $ 5.453, and many others.
2047: 23 years away: Lets assume India's GDP doubles in every 8 years (actual will be around 10 years). So you have a chance of doubling 3 times. Hence current 5T doubles to 10T in 2032, then doubles to 20T in 2040 and then doubles to 40T in 2048. Still falls short of 15T. The guest is an economist, I think he knows better. My guess, he might have created this hype for his book to be sold. When 800 million people are getting free ration, you need a very dynamic leader in India who can create a huge manufacturing base and generate employment income for these 800 million, then India can grow at 12% a year and thereby double the GDP in every 6 years.
karan. please don't invite crackpot theorists.. also you've done shabby work with not asking in detail how it'll not take 75 yrs for even $20k per capita
I don't know what everyone is smoking. Please take an excel spreadsheet. Take Thailand's per- capita income of approx USD 7K. Compound it by just 2.5%! India, with a current per-capita income of USD 2.9k, compounding at 7% will not catch up to Thailand even by 2050. Thailand is at the lower end of Middle Income i.e. India will remain a low-income country well after the 100th year of Independence.
@@stallionspirit9317 so? before covid, indias GDP growth declined every quarter between 2016 and 2020 march before lockdown..demonetization killed any growth
we dont make global quality products like german cars american cloud israeli cybersecurity no planes trains are made in lndia when it comes to the key high tech electronics software etc
Sir, we really need to have a discussion on "NO INCOME TO SOME INCOME" as reports suggest that the last assets of every indian households, which is GOLD jewellery but not biscuits or coins are being used for taking loans. Which itself suggests that there is severe income deficiency in the middle to lower middle income group.
He as an economic adviser was a big failure. Nothing he predicted had happened then & justied with evasive answers when asked rational questions. Please don't subscribe to these kind of economists. He is not sure of himself. 😅
The speaker anti farmer not an economist. The Indian state invested huge to build industrial base but failed to create worth in manufacturing. Only traders benefit. Cheap vegetables produced by farmers not helping them by middle men. Indian state is in a Bania trap. He is a neo Jagdish Bhagwati.
When youth jobless about 50% in their earning and skill improvement phase, expect great narratives to grow great of few corporates and less on ground reality. Being positive along with on ground realities otherwise it becomes dreams rather than reality. Providing job opportunities to all itself improve economic growth of country that itself becomes both production and consumption increase indicates reality of economy
Jai Hind sir. The rate of productivity and stable government are the key factors in functioning the smooth economy of our nation. The middle- income trap a tenuous concept is well illustrated in your channel and can be said an eye opening aspect to the people of India and to the existing government of India.
13 crore people in India-as per data released by WB couple fo days ago- earn less than 2 dollars ie less tha 84 rupees per day. More than 80 cr people are dependent on free ration. Rest, I leave upto common sense.I feel pity, that how such men have gine on to become economists and no wonder, why current regime has no blueprint for future.
Well, given the uniformly tardy rate of growth currently being registered by the cowbelt BIMARU states allied with Punjab and W Bengal and with no indication of any improvement in the near or distant future, which is bound to hold back severely the overall economic growth of the entire country, the forecast by this engineer-turned-economist that India can become an economic superpower with a 55 trillion dollar GDP in 2047 is at best a delusional dream. As the saying goes, if wishes were horses, beggars would ride!
21:06 Nicely done Mr. Economist, taking on Mr journalist on bringing his ideological leanings into this conversation. 22:08 good to come back to your own book and not go on about some prior interview that Mr journalist held
Of course, India’s GDP can and will reach $55T by 2047. Only issue is that much of the GDP’s rise will have been possible by way of high inflation. High inflation and middle-income trap are two sides of the same coin. So the economy will reach $55T in spite of the middle-income trap coming about. Citing past data of east Asian countries is just not appropriate. First, their work ethic is very different to ours. More importantly, the East Asian countries rode the globalization bus and were successful. We missed that bus even when it swung by India back in 1955, when Nobel economist Milton Friedman studied the Indian economy sitting in New Delhi for a whole month at the behest of the then Indian Govt. East Asia’s economic growth was primarily fueled by global trade and exports after WWII. It was a time of technological growth that made it to everyone’s home. Cars and Home appliances for cooking, air conditioning, entertainment, news, recording events for posterity, to name a few, were all things that were bought directly by consumers. Monetary expansion in those countries gradually and eventually followed the growth in economic activity to sustain it. Therefore inflation was kept in check in East Asian countries. We on the other hand have always been trying to fuel our economic growth with monetary expansion. Nothing can be further than the truth than the way in which our Govt in the last term went about spending money here and there without batting an eyelid. Didn’t this lead to high inflation? High inflation resulting from the use of monetary expansion to fuel economic growth is a science. Nobel economist Milton Friedman was awarded the Nobel prize for his work on the theory and science of monetary expansion. How much more stupid can we be? There are lots of other exceptions too to India’s economic fortunes. Our outrageously high population is a barrier to widespread uniform economic growth. The kind and amount of freebies close to 18% of our GDP is yet another barrier. Lack of people development is a gargantuan barrier too. Our level of love and respect for our own people is one more barrier yet. For whatever reason, our industries look at unorganized uneducated classes as necessary for keeping themselves profitable and, consequently, afloat par excellence. They and our governments, present and past, have always thought of our large population as assets (easily pushed labor on which to build profitable businesses). Unless we start to think of our uneducated and unorganized classes as also people who can (like us) not only get themselves educated, but also come up with innovative ideas and contribute to the nation as entrepreneurs, nothing is going to awaken the huge potential in India. It’s inane to build castles in the air without addressing the root cause of a dormant untapped potential. Which is why these advisors haven’t got the hang of economics yet. They’ve simply been throwing the math behind the economics. First it was $5T by 2024, then it was $10T by 2030, now after the 2024 elections it has been further fine tuned to $54T by 2047. Swallow their arguments and India will be drowned in massive inflation by then and an inequality the likes of which we have never seen! Mind you, I respect these advisors. But I am not convinced they’ve got the hang of economics yet. Economics is largely the study of human psychology / behavior in regard to how humans engage with one another when it comes to scarce resources. They are totally drowned in the mathematics of economics and economic growth. The proof is in the pudding. Can’t believe that the growth of 8% last year is still being bandied about as though it is a benchmark of note. In reality, that 8% was a bunch of high inflation masquerading as growth, wasn’t it? Would like these economic advisors to know that we also would like India to grow. There is not a single soul in India who doesn’t want economic growth. But that growth has to be palpable, first felt at the lowest level of society. Otherwise, playing with enormous GDP numbers and throwing them hither thither is like being in a state of pure delirium. It will happen only when the large population numbers of India turn themselves into a large market.
This government has relentlessly been managing inflation and wants to keep it at 4%. Assuming a average inflation rate of 4%, he is talking of 8.5% real GDP growth over the next 23 years. This has not happened anywhere in the world and it's not possible with the legal system we have. A lot of reforms are needed to expect 8.5% growth for consistently 10 years. In my view expecting an average growth rate of 5.5% per annum for 23 years as the baseline is realistic
The first question to ask him is who is responsible for tweaking data coming out of the govt. Every bit of data seems to be doctored or hidden thanks to weknowwho
The gdp is quoted in nominal terms and gdp growth in real terms. India’s real gdp growth rate is 6-7%. Nominal is around 10-11%. In theory the currency weakens by the inflation differential so when you convert back the GDP denominated in INR to USD then one comes back to real growth rate. However, if FII and/or FDI inflows are strong then currency may stay pretty stable (as it has been for quite some time). Hence a net 10% nominal growth rate at 7% real gdp is not impossible. 10% means double every 7 years. 21 years is 8 times. So 40T is not impossible. A net 12% will take us to 55T. Very difficult if not impossible.
22:00 So according to Mr Thapar, all 108 middle income economies have gender-based and faith-based biases! Karan genuinely needs to stop smoking funny things! 😂😂😅😂😅
I am surprised he was let on the show. Good for Karan to listen to a contrary point of view. I generally come here for my daily dose of doom and gloom. I believed it was inconceivable for an economist on this channel to make a valid point on the farm subsidies. I feel the main area India is not paying enough attention to is a conspicuous decline in FDIs.
His whole argument is superfluous. Since Modi's reign INR has depreciated against USD from around 57 to 84 in 10 years (4% PA), and 71 to 84 in last 5 years (3.4% PA). The trend doesn't imply a 1% depreciation as he seems to be claiming - after having thought deeply about it as he claims. Even if we just assume 2% depreciation, USD will have appreciated to 132 INR (instead of 105 at 1%) the number will be around 40 trillion. This after assuming that India does indeed grow at 8% every year for next 23 years and with the inflation around 5%. And this is completely unrealistic. India is yet to hit a single stretch of three years when we have touched 8%. The other aspect is that once your economy grows to a certain extent it can's grow at the same rate as it was growing earlier - there is only that much capacity that you can build.
Krushnamurthy Subramanian is a JOKER.....Even an undergraduate in Economics can tell that is prediction is way off.......I cannot believe that he was "CHIEF ECONOMIC ADVISOR."
Yes But it 'd cost $55 in 2047 to buy a cup of tea or coffee what otherwise 25 paise or 25 cents in last millennium, 25 years ago! Take that MoDani-MoBani-MoShah-MoRss cool-aid seller, said - 1.5 billion Indians!
ऐसा माहौल बनाया जा रहा है जैसे हम जल्दी ही चीन और अमेरिका से आगे निकलने वाले हैं जबकि 80 करोड़ लोगों के हाथ में कटोरा है 😂 पहले मिडिल इनकम में तो आ जाओ 😂
Ask this expert to provide the progressive numbers i.e. what will be his numbers for the below years - 2024 - $3.7T (approx.) 2025 - ? 2030 - ? 2035 - ? 2040 - ? 2045 - ? 2047 - $55T I bet he will not provide these numbers 😇
I don’t think it’s a coincidence that this economist has compared so many parameters of economic performance during Modi’s 10 years and 10 years pre-Modi. And validly shown how India has made significant improvement on those eg near doubling of productivity. The proof though is in the outcomes. If 8% per annum GDP growth (or better CAGR) is critical why not look at this metric in the two time periods he has used repeatedly, 2002-2013 and 2024-2024. It was 7.7% versus 5.8%, nearly full 2% higher pre Modi (or as disingenuously the economist used 70% growth in number of countries that have joined high income - it should have been what percentage of middle or low income have become high income), one can state that in the pre Modi decade the GDP growth rate was 32% higher😂
Karan is desperate to portray that the scene is gloomy wrt economy & getting ripped apart by Dr Krishnaswamy. I appreciate former CEA’s openness in confronting the devil in his den rather than avoiding. Vikram Sampath did it on history with certain devil(s)’ advocates and now DrK in Economics. Kudos to him.
Magnus Carlsen, specialist beats Bill Gates, a generalist….According to him specialists are better than generalists… Microsoft would have done so much better if Magnus Carlsen or Mr. Subramanyam was the founder. Not at all simplistic…
India will not get stuck in middle income trap because we are stuck in low-income trap.
😂😂😂
increasing per capita income 2.5x times..in 10yrs...is gettign stuck?..lol
@@stallionspirit1576they r pretending to be blind 😂
@@stallionspirit1576yes. Especially when inflation is also taken in account
🤣
He is trying to justify Modi era as if miracle has happened suddenly in 2014 . He is no better than Kangana
What r your qualifications
@@prabhatranjan362Dont be offended bud.. Its clearly visible.. He wants to promote and justify his book
@@mdfaheemuddin2031 I read Raghuraman Rajans Breaking the Mould, if he can have his hypothesis, so can the former CEA. We can't write off any one
moving from fragile five in 2013..to 3rd largest economy in 2027-28 is a miracle...hai na?...
@@stallionspirit1576hum rahul key supporters hai ,isiliye hum nahi maneygey😢
our education system is completely destroyed: draining the savings of middle classes...parallel fees to coaching classes ...over population..unhealthy zero knowledge based schooling...
Education system has never been good to begin with, agree with other points.
But India is right now in the low-income category. The question should be - will India be able to move to the middle-income category first?
Average monthly income in India (2022; nominal):
Self-employed: Rs 11,973
Regular salaried: Rs 19,010
Casual: Rs 8,267
Distribution of employment in India (2022):
Self-employed: 55.8%
Regular salaried: 21.5%
Casual: 22.7%
Source: ILO
We were at top 10 years ago. 😅
The Pareto principle can also be used to explain middle-income.
If you cannot rank among the top 20% of the world's advanced productivity, then you cannot earn high profits from middle/low income countrys and can only work as developed countrie's sweatshopsand with low profits .
The world's population is now 8 billion, which means there is only 1.6 billion(20%) room for developed(rich) population. Western countries (the United States, Europe, Japan, and South Korea) have 1 billion, China has 1.4 billion, and India has 1.4 billion.
China + US already 1.6 billion , so that's why those country are fighting with China. China is replaceing them.
India think u can done better than china if u guys are in this sitution?
Politically, Using Western democracy. Inefficiency
Externally, it is always want to challenging China and Pakistan. even start to challenging Canada. not stable.
Internally lot of landlords, big capitalists and Muslims .Chaos, division.
Economically cannot use China's cheap product/technology(ideological problem) to finish industrialization ,only can relies on Japanese, Korean and EU companies with expensive price.
Service industry are actully serves the West.
So my view is India only will be a middle incoming country finally,India's target is squeeze the middle income share with EU/Japan/South Korea.
Or Replace US or China for final goal. So which share India want to take over and How?
The Pacific Ocean(world) is big enough to contain China and the United States, But Asia(world) is small not enough to contain China and India at same time.
We will continue to artifically inflate our GDP by making more and more Vande Bharat Trains,Bullet Trains ,High Value Infrastuctre which common public does not have access to. High Value Defence Products which do not result in public good.
@@Dadasahab1234yes we were top in 1757 wen British won battle of plassey. India controlled 25% of world GDP !!!...Modi ruined everything. 😅
@@dawner84well explained🙏
He might be smoking some good stuff ...
55 trillion usd 😂
and he's Former Chief Economic Advisor to Modi
Some people don’t care about how precise they can be but how aligned they can be with what state would like to hear
You don't know that over 25% of African countries have higher per capita than India. Botswana is $ 6.708, Equatorial Guinea is $ 5.453, and many others.
USA is 21 trillion right now. India is 4 trillion today. 55 trillion in 2047, what a joke. These jokers aimed at 5 trillion in 2019, it’s 2024 now 😂😂😂. Get the low hanging fruit at least, then talk about 2047. Seriously, To get a job in Modi government, you don’t need education. You need to be have some stamp from foreign, be mediocre and be loud enough to shout propaganda .
Compounding is the 8th wonder of the world- Einstein. He is making an argument on sustaining the high growth rates of 7-10% which will result in the magic of compounding which will result in GDP reaching the levels of $10s of trillions. If we were having this argument even 10-20 years back, we would similarly be astonished at prediction of India becoming a $5T economy. But it is right now- because of compounding. Thats exactly how China did it (by 8-10% compounding over 20 years). If India does not get into socialist and other traps, continue to evolve our economy, we should achieve it as well. Its not a guarantee of course, its not inevitable, but doable with the right policies and incentives.
I am ashamed of such illiterate economist. India is now low income country, but he writes about middle income.
illetrate?
Why did you interview this guy. He is incompetent and whatever he says is B S.
Yes, even I am wondering the same. He just doesn't talk about realities of India he just talks about basic maths.
Says who 😂😂😂
This so-called incompetent guy is the chief economist of the IMF. What are your credentials?
Chamchanomist Krishnamurthy sidestepped the uncomfortable question on faith-based discrimination as it inconveniences his boss Modi...
Poodle of big corporations is again defending Black Farm Laws under which the Ambanis and Adanis were to be handed over the lands of Haryana, Punjab and later of all states.
👍
UP already started having big Adani warehouses to store agriculture produce.
He sounds like one of those regime apologists who will be blaming Nehru in 2047 when India’s “developed country” dreams are shattered - before declaring that we are developed anyways.
Only few oligarchs will become more rich and then average out their income on total population and consider that country and its people have become rich? Stupid argument. Indian is not even in Middle income. India is in lower middle income group.
Brother thats the plan from start. 😅
No offence, but the economist does not sound like a person of very good integrity!!
What a stupid man, former CEA of India, no wonder we are in such grinding poverty.
Ask the poor man in the street, what trap he is in?
This guy even looks like Sambit Patra..😅😅
Typical diplomat talking style of being sweet and wearing a meaningless smile saying things everything is perfect, while doing those power games in behind…can’t buy a word THIS guy says!
In last ten years how many trillions we added????
Roughly 2.5 Trillion Dollars during the Modi. India rose from 11/10th largest economy to 5th largest.
India shouldn't be compared to the U.S. or other developed Western countries, nor to China. A fair comparison would be with countries like Brazil. The $55 trillion figure is misleading. I'm concerned that India's exports are limited to a few agricultural products, while it relies heavily on imported technologies, making it more of a consumer rather than an innovation hub!
Is he an economist or is a athlète preparing for next olympic ! Jumping from 5 trillion economy to 55 trillion in less than 20 years is an athleletic jump 😅
55 trillion in year 2047😂😂 It looks like joke. If it happens , it is very good newa for Indians.
It will never happen. All BJP guys do is speak rubbish and then justify it with foolish reasoning. It's no wonder they couldn't complete any of their promises since 2014. They are nothing but crooks !
This interview is a clear example of the intellectual depth in public intellectuals that is dying a slow death in India. Far from a balanced view point, the book will only be worse.
Hope we don't get into a lower income trap.. Our projected GDP growth rate is a fallacy. We are actually growing by 2% only if inflation is adjusted. Again, the north south divide is growing at an alarming rate. Peninsular India is growing faster than the BIMARU states at its own esteem and not because of central support.
So this was the brain behind Modi’s farm laws under which 750 farmers died. Ask him if poverty has declined then why 5 kg ration is given to 80% of population of India.
By opposing Farm laws, some people in punjapb and haryana have caused harm to themselves
@@ramananvenkataraman4594do you know even Tamil.nadu farmers protested ?...maharshartra farmers protested and even Gujarat??
He is also responsible to great extent for the mess we are in now.
what was ur percapita from 1947 to 2014?
Remove top 10% earners, rest for 90 % per capita is at level of African countries....
You don't know that over 45% of African countries have higher per capita than India. Botswana is $ 6.708, Equatorial Guinea is $ 5.453, and many others.
He is just being all over the place. He is just not being articulate enough. 😅...just pleasing his masters. 😂
Lol...whenever he gets stuck. He just straightaway disagrees. Is he even literate ?😅
This is the reason being critical while planning is better than being optimistic while planning. 53-55 trillion dollars is too optimistic
I guess you were looking for the word "delusional" 😅😂.. not "too optimistic"..
@@mj1_5676 thank you
Kuch bhi bol do bhai, janta bewakoof hai... Maan jayegi🤡🤡🤡🤡
I believe future is brighter
😂😂
bewakoof hai...issiliye 3rd largest economy..banne jaa rahey hain..lol
Bangladesh and India have almost the same per capita income. That’s shameful.
Stop fooling..were not even middle income. Rural wages of 5k is a dream
2047: 23 years away: Lets assume India's GDP doubles in every 8 years (actual will be around 10 years). So you have a chance of doubling 3 times. Hence current 5T doubles to 10T in 2032, then doubles to 20T in 2040 and then doubles to 40T in 2048. Still falls short of 15T.
The guest is an economist, I think he knows better. My guess, he might have created this hype for his book to be sold.
When 800 million people are getting free ration, you need a very dynamic leader in India who can create a huge manufacturing base and generate employment income for these 800 million, then India can grow at 12% a year and thereby double the GDP in every 6 years.
karan. please don't invite crackpot theorists.. also you've done shabby work with not asking in detail how it'll not take 75 yrs for even $20k per capita
Krishnamurthy sounds absolutely like a BJP spokesperson, and nothing like an economist, which he actually he is. I wonder why😂😂
In per capita income , we are at 18% of the world average.
Ten years ago, we were on top.😅
per capita income of china was also low...in 2005...these are transint numbers ..for growing economies..duh!
I don't know what everyone is smoking. Please take an excel spreadsheet. Take Thailand's per- capita income of approx USD 7K. Compound it by just 2.5%! India, with a current per-capita income of USD 2.9k, compounding at 7% will not catch up to Thailand even by 2050. Thailand is at the lower end of Middle Income i.e. India will remain a low-income country well after the 100th year of Independence.
$5Trillion economy vt 2047??😳😳
Hadn't Modiji promised 5 trillion by 2022?
Was that a Jumla???
5 trillion by 2022 itself is a jhumla, realizing this Modi chamchas have now shifted the goalpost all the way to 2047..
rememeber covid happened for 2years??..lol
@@stallionspirit9317 so? before covid, indias GDP growth declined every quarter between 2016 and 2020 march before lockdown..demonetization killed any growth
we dont make global quality products like german cars american cloud israeli cybersecurity no planes trains are made in lndia when it comes to the key high tech electronics software etc
Sir, we really need to have a discussion on "NO INCOME TO SOME INCOME" as reports suggest that the last assets of every indian households, which is GOLD jewellery but not biscuits or coins are being used for taking loans. Which itself suggests that there is severe income deficiency in the middle to lower middle income group.
To presume that no global economic shocks like one we had in 2008 and local shocks is optimism to the core
is this guy real?
He as an economic adviser was a big failure. Nothing he predicted had happened then & justied with evasive answers when asked rational questions. Please don't subscribe to these kind of economists. He is not sure of himself. 😅
Year 2047, why not 2025?
Same as giving 15lakh😂 hypothetical interview in hypothetical regime. Currently per Capita income is 2600/ doller not 3500/ doller.
Karan’s overt bias is absolutely fun AND painful to watch, all at the same time 😂😅😂😅😂
its Krishamurthy is biased not Karan who asks the right no BS questions
The speaker anti farmer not an economist. The Indian state invested huge to build industrial base but failed to create worth in manufacturing. Only traders benefit. Cheap vegetables produced by farmers not helping them by middle men. Indian state is in a Bania trap. He is a neo Jagdish Bhagwati.
When youth jobless about 50% in their earning and skill improvement phase, expect great narratives to grow great of few corporates and less on ground reality. Being positive along with on ground realities otherwise it becomes dreams rather than reality. Providing job opportunities to all itself improve economic growth of country that itself becomes both production and consumption increase indicates reality of economy
He got totally exposed. 😅😂
Jai Hind sir. The rate of productivity and stable government are the key factors in functioning the smooth economy of our nation. The middle- income trap a tenuous concept is well illustrated in your channel and can be said an eye opening aspect to the people of India and to the existing government of India.
Kudos to both, even though they ideologically disagree with each other, didn't let that come between healthy intellectual discussion❤😊
13 crore people in India-as per data released by WB couple fo days ago- earn less than 2 dollars ie less tha 84 rupees per day.
More than 80 cr people are dependent on free ration.
Rest, I leave upto common sense.I feel pity, that how such men have gine on to become economists and no wonder, why current regime has no blueprint for future.
By all means india will become the second largest economy in 2047 by the prediction of imf ❤
But who will clean corruption bribery kickbacks hypocrisy below quality products and services jugaad chalta hai....we are farcftom the transition
last 1000 years we were invaded ruled by foreign powers...last 75 we destroyed ourselves even more😂😂
Yes 10 years were of atalbihari in it as well. 😅
if becoming 3rd largest economy..is becoming destroyed...i wish more...lol
@@stallionspirit9317 its about PER CAPITA GRP NOT NATIONAL GDP
Fantastic interview, worth watching. I am sure his research and predictions are interesting. Let us hope policy makers will do good job.
our cities are urban slum clusters congested roads high air pollution poor quality drinking water ....
Heehee sarkari blahblah. A good session wasted
Even if we manage to achieve half of what he says, we'll be a lot better for us than what it is today.
Underestimating corruption and black money, which is widening gap of high, muddle and low income group.
No some industrialists are definitely going to become High Income net worth, not people of India
Professional pessimists.😂 what a burn. Right on point
$55 Trillion? Meaning the Indian GDP will be more than the GDP of USA and China combined by 2047? 😅
I only listen to Jayant Bandhari and he is so right about India.
Nonsense economics
Well, given the uniformly tardy rate of growth currently being registered by the cowbelt BIMARU states allied with Punjab and W Bengal and with no indication of any improvement in the near or distant future,
which is bound to hold back severely the overall economic growth of the entire country, the forecast by this engineer-turned-economist that India can become an economic superpower with a 55 trillion dollar GDP in 2047 is at best a delusional dream. As the saying goes, if wishes were horses, beggars would ride!
21:06 Nicely done Mr. Economist, taking on Mr journalist on bringing his ideological leanings into this conversation.
22:08 good to come back to your own book and not go on about some prior interview that Mr journalist held
5Tn toh ho nahi raha aj bi
55tn banaega?😂
Of course, India’s GDP can and will reach $55T by 2047. Only issue is that much of the GDP’s rise will have been possible by way of high inflation.
High inflation and middle-income trap are two sides of the same coin. So the economy will reach $55T in spite of the middle-income trap coming about.
Citing past data of east Asian countries is just not appropriate. First, their work ethic is very different to ours.
More importantly, the East Asian countries rode the globalization bus and were successful. We missed that bus even when it swung by India back in 1955, when Nobel economist Milton Friedman studied the Indian economy sitting in New Delhi for a whole month at the behest of the then Indian Govt.
East Asia’s economic growth was primarily fueled by global trade and exports after WWII. It was a time of technological growth that made it to everyone’s home. Cars and Home appliances for cooking, air conditioning, entertainment, news, recording events for posterity, to name a few, were all things that were bought directly by consumers. Monetary expansion in those countries gradually and eventually followed the growth in economic activity to sustain it. Therefore inflation was kept in check in East Asian countries. We on the other hand have always been trying to fuel our economic growth with monetary expansion. Nothing can be further than the truth than the way in which our Govt in the last term went about spending money here and there without batting an eyelid. Didn’t this lead to high inflation? High inflation resulting from the use of monetary expansion to fuel economic growth is a science. Nobel economist Milton Friedman was awarded the Nobel prize for his work on the theory and science of monetary expansion. How much more stupid can we be?
There are lots of other exceptions too to India’s economic fortunes. Our outrageously high population is a barrier to widespread uniform economic growth. The kind and amount of freebies close to 18% of our GDP is yet another barrier. Lack of people development is a gargantuan barrier too.
Our level of love and respect for our own people is one more barrier yet. For whatever reason, our industries look at unorganized uneducated classes as necessary for keeping themselves profitable and, consequently, afloat par excellence. They and our governments, present and past, have always thought of our large population as assets (easily pushed labor on which to build profitable businesses). Unless we start to think of our uneducated and unorganized classes as also people who can (like us) not only get themselves educated, but also come up with innovative ideas and contribute to the nation as entrepreneurs, nothing is going to awaken the huge potential in India. It’s inane to build castles in the air without addressing the root cause of a dormant untapped potential. Which is why these advisors haven’t got the hang of economics yet. They’ve simply been throwing the math behind the economics. First it was $5T by 2024, then it was $10T by 2030, now after the 2024 elections it has been further fine tuned to $54T by 2047. Swallow their arguments and India will be drowned in massive inflation by then and an inequality the likes of which we have never seen!
Mind you, I respect these advisors. But I am not convinced they’ve got the hang of economics yet. Economics is largely the study of human psychology / behavior in regard to how humans engage with one another when it comes to scarce resources. They are totally drowned in the mathematics of economics and economic growth. The proof is in the pudding. Can’t believe that the growth of 8% last year is still being bandied about as though it is a benchmark of note. In reality, that 8% was a bunch of high inflation masquerading as growth, wasn’t it?
Would like these economic advisors to know that we also would like India to grow. There is not a single soul in India who doesn’t want economic growth. But that growth has to be palpable, first felt at the lowest level of society. Otherwise, playing with enormous GDP numbers and throwing them hither thither is like being in a state of pure delirium. It will happen only when the large population numbers of India turn themselves into a large market.
This government has relentlessly been managing inflation and wants to keep it at 4%. Assuming a average inflation rate of 4%, he is talking of 8.5% real GDP growth over the next 23 years. This has not happened anywhere in the world and it's not possible with the legal system we have. A lot of reforms are needed to expect 8.5% growth for consistently 10 years. In my view expecting an average growth rate of 5.5% per annum for 23 years as the baseline is realistic
The first question to ask him is who is responsible for tweaking data coming out of the govt.
Every bit of data seems to be doctored or hidden thanks to weknowwho
can govt of lndia pass a law : capital punishment for corruption bribery kickbacks?
The gdp is quoted in nominal terms and gdp growth in real terms. India’s real gdp growth rate is 6-7%. Nominal is around 10-11%.
In theory the currency weakens by the inflation differential so when you convert back the GDP denominated in INR to USD then one comes back to real growth rate.
However, if FII and/or FDI inflows are strong then currency may stay pretty stable (as it has been for quite some time).
Hence a net 10% nominal growth rate at 7% real gdp is not impossible.
10% means double every 7 years. 21 years is 8 times. So 40T is not impossible. A net 12% will take us to 55T. Very difficult if not impossible.
Ive reported this video as misinfo
22:00 So according to Mr Thapar, all 108 middle income economies have gender-based and faith-based biases! Karan genuinely needs to stop smoking funny things! 😂😂😅😂😅
someone should know basic, for india to be a 55 trillion economy in 23, years, India has to grow at average of 11% annually, which it has never done.
I am surprised he was let on the show. Good for Karan to listen to a contrary point of view. I generally come here for my daily dose of doom and gloom. I believed it was inconceivable for an economist on this channel to make a valid point on the farm subsidies. I feel the main area India is not paying enough attention to is a conspicuous decline in FDIs.
it was good to expose his lies too..he is a known right wing chamchanomist..
Sir, focus on EVM system of India. This is the main reason damages India.
His whole argument is superfluous. Since Modi's reign INR has depreciated against USD from around 57 to 84 in 10 years (4% PA), and 71 to 84 in last 5 years (3.4% PA). The trend doesn't imply a 1% depreciation as he seems to be claiming - after having thought deeply about it as he claims. Even if we just assume 2% depreciation, USD will have appreciated to 132 INR (instead of 105 at 1%) the number will be around 40 trillion. This after assuming that India does indeed grow at 8% every year for next 23 years and with the inflation around 5%. And this is completely unrealistic. India is yet to hit a single stretch of three years when we have touched 8%. The other aspect is that once your economy grows to a certain extent it can's grow at the same rate as it was growing earlier - there is only that much capacity that you can build.
How do you include geopolitical and global influences in your hypothesis on Indian economical growth ?
Krushnamurthy Subramanian is a JOKER.....Even an undergraduate in Economics can tell that is prediction is way off.......I cannot believe that he was "CHIEF ECONOMIC ADVISOR."
इंटरवियू लेने वाला बड़ा मूर्ख है जो इस मूढ़ का इंटरव्यू ले रहा है ❤
these guys simply play with emotions without any solid backing. Learning some self motivation bs books and using it with economical terms.
Yes But it 'd cost $55 in 2047 to buy a cup of tea or coffee what otherwise 25 paise or 25 cents in last millennium, 25 years ago! Take that MoDani-MoBani-MoShah-MoRss cool-aid seller, said - 1.5 billion Indians!
ऐसा माहौल बनाया जा रहा है जैसे हम जल्दी ही चीन और अमेरिका से आगे निकलने वाले हैं जबकि 80 करोड़ लोगों के हाथ में कटोरा है 😂
पहले मिडिल इनकम में तो आ जाओ 😂
all in all our DNA doesnt have focus discipline quality hygiene of global standards
Ask this expert to provide the progressive numbers i.e. what will be his numbers for the below years -
2024 - $3.7T (approx.)
2025 - ?
2030 - ?
2035 - ?
2040 - ?
2045 - ?
2047 - $55T
I bet he will not provide these numbers 😇
Former CEA is Modi's stooge
Dude, you are a professional pessimist. Please don't come to the show if you can't respect the platform. Go to beer biceps. He has ton of knowledge. 😅
We are Ambani and Adani country!!
I don’t think it’s a coincidence that this economist has compared so many parameters of economic performance during Modi’s 10 years and 10 years pre-Modi. And validly shown how India has made significant improvement on those eg near doubling of productivity. The proof though is in the outcomes.
If 8% per annum GDP growth (or better CAGR) is critical why not look at this metric in the two time periods he has used repeatedly, 2002-2013 and 2024-2024. It was 7.7% versus 5.8%, nearly full 2% higher pre Modi (or as disingenuously the economist used 70% growth in number of countries that have joined high income - it should have been what percentage of middle or low income have become high income), one can state that in the pre Modi decade the GDP growth rate was 32% higher😂
Karan. Please do not get such people on your show. 2047???????
I would love to debate with this innocent economist. I live only 40 miles from his IMF office.
But there can't be a debate, can there. He'll simply ask you to practice his favorite form of yoga.
Thankyou yah sahi hai video
Karan is desperate to portray that the scene is gloomy wrt economy & getting ripped apart by Dr Krishnaswamy. I appreciate former CEA’s openness in confronting the devil in his den rather than avoiding. Vikram Sampath did it on history with certain devil(s)’ advocates and now DrK in Economics. Kudos to him.
Too many fundamental problems
2047 तक 55 trillion होने के लिए 12% की दर से GDP बढ़नी चाहिए, अभी 7% पर अटके हुए हैं, वैसे सपने देखने में कोई हर्ज नहीं है 😂
Hawabazi karke chala gaya subramanian
like his boss Modi
This guy seems to be BJP member and possible future Rajya Sabha Member. competence fit for BJP position.
Magnus Carlsen, specialist beats Bill Gates, a generalist….According to him specialists are better than generalists… Microsoft would have done so much better if Magnus Carlsen or Mr. Subramanyam was the founder. Not at all simplistic…