Have been hearing that since 20 years. Sure there are short term dips. But with 1.4 billion people congested in a small space, real estate can never stop growing. People don't realise how huge China is as compared to India. We are a small country with lots of people.
That point arrived 5 years ago. 1000 sq ft 2 bhk 10-12 miles around the city of Boston can give you a monthly rent of $2800 to $3000 depending on how good the apartment/ house is maintained and it costs less than $600,000 to buy again 10 miles outside Boston where a white collar job gets you $130,000 minimum pa. The jobs are also not necessarily in the city of Boston so you could be working in a suburb of Boston hence could be living 3 miles away from work or 12 miles from work give or take any possibility.
This is very correct around half a million dollars you can get a much better deal in major city in usa may be slightly say 5-10 miles from downtown.with much better amenities once you move outside of your home I mean cleaning, infra etc..
Nikhil’s counter is absolutely right. Deflation in china’s real estate is best example of it. No demand means no supply. Population is not increasing rather it is seeing decline all over the world and India will not be exception to this.
Bangalore had a population of 1 Cr. just prior to the pandemic Feb. 2020. In 2024 it is estimated to be 1.4 Cr. Overall population might decline. But urbanisation and growth of particular sectors and cities will continue
China example doest fits us, our infrastructure is trying to catch up to the demand which is increasing the price. In cities Infrastructure is way behind compared the kind of population that lives there. We need more inventory and lots of planned urban affordable housing which is not happening. Artificial shortage has been made by government and builder nexus it take decades to convert farm land for residential use which drive the residential price sky high. We are land rich country still facing problems like Singapore because of slow government policies.
Exactly banks use this properties as collateral how will a bank lower the value of the collateral no bank will do it they will happily increase the value of the collateral this game will unravel but it will take time
Comparing real estate (land) to fake estate (apartments) is like comparing gold coin with copper nickel. While Land value will skyrocket in 10 years, Flat value will see a fall after 10 years. If you want to invest money in the real real estate, Invest in tier 2 and tier 3 cities across India where there is potential for your investment to grow in the next 10-15 years, Where you can afford to park a major chunk of your funds and wait for it to grow. Entering real estate in large metro cities is not just expensive it's not very lucrative in short term due to saturation of the market. Buying real estate in large metro cities like Mumbai or Bangalore in partnership will only expose you to future litigations, If you want to own real estate own it under your own name.
until INDIA remains the top IT service provider country, money will keep flowing in & Indian real estate will be stable & grow in a good average, but the day India lost its crown of being one of the top IT services provider then the real estate sector will start to go down like anything.
Real estate is basically an inventory, and not land. So better live on rent and buy a land in remote location and wait till it gets developed enough to increase in value.
Totally...! Wiping out forests trying to acquire land that are protected and then spiking the prices. There's absolutely no meaning in the Bangalore's housing prices.
I think price of Flats can go down because it's supply has no limit and fluctuations can happen in it's demand . The price of land will never go down because it's supply is limited and it will be always in demand.
Come to Noida, the prices have fallen by atleast 20%. It's just that old home buyers aren't willing to sell at loss and sticking to it thinking MAYBE after 5-6 years it will fetch them some Value.
@@raviaryatube @princeofheaven19 bought a plot on Noida Expressway in Sector 168 during 2011-12 Noida Hype (FOMO Trap). And next month I'll be selling that plot at 30% more valuation at which I had bought back then. Have been trying to sell that plot after COVID, but no buyer gave an attractive offer. This is the best valuation I've gotten. If I had spent that money in FD then my money had almost tripled during these 12 years.
90% of India earn less than 25k pm, remaining 10% 5-7 % earm between 50k-1 lakh, 2-3 % earning 1lakh to 3lakh pm, then how come and who buying such large real estate residential apartment where price touching 80-90lKh ,and 3-7 crore in major city, here not considering the vast amount of comercial real estate, how is this miss match working, can pls someone explain , how
@@navusingh6125 black money & NRIs. Also few new millionaires are buying these like crazy which leads to increase in price but common people don't have that money. For these common people owning such properties are a dream so when one of is got lucky with money, the first thing they buy is real estate or cars, and the cycle continues
Great Points. Those who are at top of buckets have multiple properties. I think builders exaggerate demands numbers. There must be many who are willing to sale but haven't getting a buyer.
You are abosolutely right, and let me tell you it's the NRIs who are buying these properties in India for investment purposes. These builders who have high pressure sales offices who can sell sand at 1 cr. per kilo to anybody, so these guys sell Under construction properties to these investors and mostly aspiring homeowners who think they have a home but in reality it's trap. They sign treacherous contracts for the UC properties where builder can get away with the money, and even if they complete that property, it's sub-par at best but their value has already been inflated. Real estate market in India is just a bubble which will burst soon.
@@shahijgdEven after a point if the income does not increase proportionally there will be NPA happening all over the banking industry and a chain reaction will happen and will take the shape of a loop, like China.
Stupidity is to expect flats prices to increase.. simply because chances of getting demand of a 10 yo flat is negligible.. i have a 5yo 2BHK which I am trying to sell for 2 years no luck.. sometimes I feel if i had kept the money in fd it would be better..
@@harshalgawai746 nope it's actually a beautiful well developed society with all amenities The Leaf Yewalewadi has 5 towers, with 14 floors each and 475 units on offer. Spread over an area of 10.8 acres, Problem is the builder made some budget flat in the same society and they are being sold at heavy discount.. and we are suffering
Here is my perspective. In Houston during pandemic the Real Estate market surged like crazy. 3 years down the line the market is crashing. Lot of houses were built looking at the boom, but no takers as people dont have money nor the interest rates are low. Prices have dropped upto 10%. People in india are hyper FoMo when it comes to homes. Thats the reason real estate downturn doesnt seem like a possibility for both buyers and realtors. I think once vertical expansion goes full scale FoMo will evaporate and prices wil be affordable. In the bargain many realtors wiill lose a lot of money. Thats ok becauee they have been greeedy and croony for a very long time.
Any real estate developer or gold reseller will always says its ultimate asset but I believe we are heading towards to ghost city similar to Detroit max 15 to 20 years ( no one is considering environmentally issues)
But you need to factor inflation, LTCG, maintananca charges, regostration charges, broker charges which is equal to depreciating capital. 10 years before (say 2013) a property worth 1 crore in all major cities is now worth just 1.6 to 1.8 crores excluding inflation, LTCG, maintananca charges, regostration charges, broker charges which is not even worth as the value did not double just like FD investment. So real estate/house is not an investment. It is just a personal requirement.
The value of asset is proportionate to time. Real estate is such an asset class, which takes upward trend with few minor hiccups. With huge population comes huge demand and competition.
Real estate prices are directly related to the population, India will peak its population in 2045 also given the rate of urbanisation, i believe agricultural land is a good investment opportunity now which is also tax free, better yields
The price of real estate is in land which has been there hundreds of thousands of years before any of us existed . It doesn't create anything new and it is not a relocatable asset . Someday humans are going to realise the few older people got lucky just because they were born few years early . People doing average income jobs can no longer afford a roof over their head in most part of the world anymore
But you need to factor inflation, LTCG, maintananca charges, regostration charges, broker charges which is equal to depreciating capital. 10 years before (say 2013) a property worth 1 crore in all major cities is now worth just 1.6 to 1.8 crores excluding inflation, LTCG, maintananca charges, regostration charges, broker charges which is not even worth as the value did not double just like FD investment. So real estate/house is not an investment. It is just a personal requirement.
The only favorable argument for investing in real-estate companies is that buying home is not a rational math driven decision in India. It has always been and will be an emotional decision to a large extent. Rationality dicatatea that renting will always be a better option than buying. We are yet to see a phase where that will not hold true.
Already gone down, see vasai virar or just outside Mumbai buildings prices go down as soon as you buy and building become too old within few years. The old builders have become stubborn as also can be seen here 😂
But you need to factor inflation, LTCG, maintananca charges, regostration charges, broker charges which is equal to depreciating capital. 10 years before (say 2013) a property worth 1 crore in all major cities is now worth just 1.6 to 1.8 crores excluding inflation, LTCG, maintananca charges, regostration charges, broker charges which is not even worth as the value did not double just like FD investment. So real estate/house is not an investment. It is just a personal requirement.
@@DK4u2007 they're increasing in the name of Bullet train and new Highway but see what happened to 41 buildings in Nalasopara. Even big projects don't have basics like water or 24 hr electricity or security at night outside the building premises.
Simple fact .. A strong job market will make price go higher due to demand and weak job market puts deflation.. The entire commercial real estate market around the world is very weak even today compared to residential market. Its all demand from the employers and employed people.
One important pointer why it will not reduce even in 30yrs. There are a lot of people who: - Currently are not living a house because they cannot afford it, mostly below poverty line - Joint family, recent trend shows a lot of young people are now preferring independent house.
95% of those who are poor will be stuck in debt spiral. They'll be in EMI trap. That's how all advertising companies and e-commerce makes money. Joint family to nuclear family trend is there, but since population has started to decrease, people will not buy new homes. Once their parents are dead or they're dependent, young folks move with them.
The truth, you don’t have any safe assets where you can invest apart from gold funds, or mutual funds, and that’s actually the best investment rather than real estate
While Nikhil tries to present an alternative view, the whole podcast is heavily skewed in one direction. Wish there was someone to balance the dialogue.
Real estate is one of the safest bet to park black money and hence as long as black money exist and registration costs remain high, prices will not drop
Irfan Razzak - owner of prestige group is greedy old man looted and spoiled Bangalore real estate market with high prices . Market lost its shine already and it will blast shortly
@@nitishasthana03 🤣 - agreed - what I meant is we need enforcement of laws and better policies where politicians cannot become businessmen and give govt contracts to themselves - at this rate, we will be left with nothing as citizens
The bubble is not in the real estate. Bubble is in the money. Govt and banks print so much money . That they have inflated the value of asset beyond their intrinsic value.
People live in city because of two reasons. In city, with lesser physical efforts, you can earn huge money. Secondly, there is no motivation for anyone to go back to village even if his income goes down later. Once you decide to stay, you borrow from bank to buy house and keep repaying.
work from home will show the real need. Real estate will stagnate in a month. Just do it and see. It will only benefit India, When US work can be done from Bangalore , why cant it be done from Dharwaad or himachal. As of now because we in India have developed only 8-10 cities that's why cost of living is going up up and up. because whole India wants to liv in those cities . This is not supply demand problem. This is poor network design problem
Didn't know these people except Kamath, found it to be an interesting discussion. then I saw who they are. They are in real estate business, of course they'll say real estate demand will always increase. What else are they expected to say about real estate market?
Not a single word from these realtors I'd ever believe...these guys have a business that can only profit from money that they siphon from people in the name of Under Construction projects...which rarely get completed on time and even if they do, they are sub-par at best and don't justify their initial asking price. These realtors are simply creating a Bubble, which will burst very soon
So the low quality products ( delayed possession, sub standard materials used in construction )that we are seeing can be clearly attributed to the confidence builders have because of insane demands in most of the metro cities.
Population is a bigger impact on real estate. In next 40 to 50 years, hardly any one put interest on buying real estate because it was already bought by his or her parents or grandparents parents in big cities in India. Demand will eventually go down.
Real estate in India or owning a house in India - 1200 sq ft of a flat or apartment which is at least 30km away from heart of city is over ₹1.2 crore without fitting and wardrobes or other things. In smaller cities the price is the same with an exception that it is just 5-10km from heart of city depending on the city. Can these people tell which class of people have that kind of income to buy a 2BHK house of 1200sq. ft at 1.2crore+other things? It is obviously the very high income group (even amongst salaried class). remember one has to shell out at least ₹80K-90K every month for at least 240 months regardless of one's income which is quite unpredictable with the present geo-political situation. Its like asking the smuggler have ever stolen money. (S)he obviously say NO. So the real estate moguls can NEVER admit in open platform that real estate price WILL go down ONE DAY. And may not be so in next 5-10 yrs (depending the global situation remains the same without De-Dollarisation, NO Wars/conflicts, ...etc.). because then they are signaling to home buyers that it is not a good choice. And this will have a domino effect on sales and revenue. BUT the overall Indian population is going down significantly with a TFR of 2.1 below 2.2 or 2.3 which is a safe replacement rate across all communities and religions. PLUS there are significant incest problems of late not attributed to any specific community or religion but over all in all. PLUS there is a growing DINK. IF ever people could realize or visualize mathematical equation and its effects (I am sure these people with exception of NK are hardly learned forget about being educated to understand visualize math eq.), India's demographic dividend is ONLY for next 10-15 yrs. Had we seen real estate boom before 2000 or 2005? NO It rapidly boomed with some transient of course. The same with doom. It will not be overnight BUT IT WILL HAPPEN in next 15-20 yrs. Till then of course there is party time provided ....NO De-Dollarisation, NO WAR or conflict, ..etc. If one had told in 2019 in Jan that the world will close down. Countries will close down. ..etc. (S)he would have been forcefully admitted to mental asylum. But did it not happen due to covid? It was first time ever on earth because during previous pandemics, there was no country closure as population hardly travelled beyond their districts.
See indeed rates are increasing and the rate of increase is proportional to the development in that area....Also the mindset is changing in Genex...w.r.t affordability like township projects etc etc...where standalone building without amenities are getting redundant....So consider all factors w.r.t what is sellable n appreciating asset ...If you have the right product..it is going to make a difference with multiple x times of appreciation 😊
In india gst should be replaced by empty land tax aka wealth tax and inheritance tax,also real estate ownership should be linked with pan and it should be verified in IT return
Real estate will never decline,looking at the scenarios present generation who likes to leave individually with his wife and kid unlike older days even 5 siblings will leave to gather in single house
To explain person x buys for 1 cr in 2024 , prestige launces for 1.5 , person x think his value has appreciated to 1.5 and he list for 1.8 , person y buys from prestige bcoz he is offerong at 1.5 and same cycle continues ... all the gain is on paper for buyer ... who ever has power to hold will keep holding on paper returns
Real estate, furniture, and auto sectors, characterized by significant investments, flourish when economic conditions support robust consumer spending. Nonetheless, these sectors tend to peak near the end of economic cycles, making them potential harbingers of market decline.
After GST,,,prices of all the building products supplied by major companies for the project are more or less the same in PAN India.. still the gap in cost of flats are exorbitant from state to state with identical amenities and unsold flats are maximum in mumbai still the holding capacity of developers are minimum 5 to 10yrs..it clearly indicates politicians builder nexus. Middle-class is not their target audiences
Average property prices in all metros have gone beyond the affordable zone, even for the 98 percentile. Only under 1% can buy these properties now. Where is the demand coming from?
Working hard to secure a job, only to face rising prices and spend years repaying EMIs! Those fortunate enough to inherit ancestral wealth truly have an advantage.
Timestamps (Powered by Merlin AI) 00:07 - Real estate is considered the best investment class. 01:13 - Real estate prices continue due to population, urbanization, and aspirational demand. 02:13 - Real estate demand is driven by retirees and people from larger cities. 03:17 - Shifting demographics and changing work patterns could impact real estate prices. 04:30 - Real estate prices cannot collapse due to real shortage and increasing demand. 05:31 - Choosing a niche market for luxury housing can bring satisfaction 06:29 - Urbanization driving unprecedented real estate demand 07:25 - Real estate prices can't collapse due to supply-demand dynamics
well some neutral-3rd party should take an inventory of flats/homes which are un-used/not occupied/idle units at least in the major cities to start with.
People saying real estate prices not sustainable have been saying it for last 20 years, while thier friends bought flats , plots and did 10x thier value 😂
@@evensaj yes entry point is critical if u r buying flat only for investment and selling .. if it’s for end use phenomenon remains same for 15 year cycle
भाई इंडियन real-estate can't go down because of constant blackmoney supply is the only reality.... In pune every builder is asking 30-40 lack cash(black money). और निर्मलाजी salary वाले के पीछे पडी है...
Well the point nikhil was trying to make was a shift in the population pyramid..yes that can definately happen.. And the prices of real estate might tank.. Bcoz basic supply demand economics. Bcoz india is not japan land over here is not scarce it is abundant
What Indian cities and towns especially tier 2 & tier 3 need are better & bigger parks & grounds for jogging and running & for kids to play, ideally in every municipal ward, more greenery and better drainage & waste management. Any city that works on these three aspects will attract good investment.
They collectively dodged the question; but It’s kinda interesting how they dodged the question . We know that the prices are fundamentally fueled by fomo. But the way they are projecting the demand for the near future, it like they have a fomo effect amongst real estate investors or companies that fuels their minds to pump up the market prices.
What everyone is ignoring is money has flown into real estate from gains made in stock markets to save capital gains tax. Now this has got over with 20% LTCG, investors are first to pull up their pants & run.
Why you didn't ask about deforestation and what real estate is doing for plantation. Mainly real estate is responsible for cuttting trees. Government, real estate and people demanding more houses have to understand that we have limited space. And NO more plantes.
fear a housing crash due to people buying homes above asking prices with little equity. If prices drop, affordability and potential foreclosures may arise, worsened by future layoffs and rising living costs. I want to invest more than $300k, but I'm not sure on how to mitigate risk.
Buying a home is always a loss. I have been living n my own flat for 20 yrs.bought for 20 lacs when gold was Rs500 per gram. Had i bought gold for 20 lacs then, i will be having gold worth 2.7 crores. My flat sells at 1 crire now. I woukd have paid 50 lacs for rent. Loss of 1.2 crores n buying . Only benefit is u can live peacefully without tension of owners attitude and trouble of vacating frequently.
No assets are safe. All have it's own vulnerability. It only takes one scam to wipe out investor money in stocks/ MF. So best options is to diversify across different assets.
I Think People understand that the problem here Isn't Going to Be a population decline or less demand but affordability. As Job Opportunities Shrink with the Advent Of AI and automation, Wealth Disparity Will Increase. We will see a Massive Decline Soon, but the Demand Will Never Decrease. Value Capital Will Probably Shrink and Inflate, And The Cycle Will Continue.
Oh God . Prices have increased due to purchase of properties for investment & money parking by ultra wealthy individuals. Majority of real estate transactions are almost 50% black of market price and not the Govt. price. We have enough land mass and also enough resources to build ultra affordable housing but it’s the nexus that is the result of heavy tax burden on businesses that has made real estate expensive for the new generation of the country. Its mot that u see people getting rich off of real estate but its the people who are ultra rich through other businesses venture into it.
Real estate will never crash, since investor will invest and other investor will buy. Caution: end user should stay away from paying unreasonable and unrealistic price, and shoud avoid buying in tier A city.
First you should not categorize flats in the category of real estate as they are deprecating assets and the life of concrete structure is fixed. If the appartment are high rise then even the plan of redevelopment is very tough to implement. Secondly, affordability has become an issue for larger population because of skyrocket prices. Most new high earning people can not afford a house today unless they decide to become a bonded labour to pay the price for rest of their life. Third the market is very opaque and there are lot of middlemen and transaction cost involved. The decision is being taken considering capital appreciation (gains) rather than cashflows that's why their rental yields are low.
The syndicate of Real estate owners collaborate to keep prices favourable to themselves. Plain and simple
The confidence of these people gives me the confidence that real estate will soon see a crash like never before. How soon, who knows.
Have been hearing this since the last 10 years
Have been hearing that since 20 years.
Sure there are short term dips. But with 1.4 billion people congested in a small space, real estate can never stop growing.
People don't realise how huge China is as compared to India. We are a small country with lots of people.
Not gonna happen
@@mathurp6889 Bro japan also have less land still prices collapsed and brings a lost decade in their economy
@@mathurp6889 China USA Canada prices have already crashed now. In which world are you living ?
There will be a point when houses in the US will seem cheaper than Bangalore
They are already
Already if you compare gurgaon and the quality of houses you get.
They already are
That point arrived 5 years ago. 1000 sq ft 2 bhk 10-12 miles around the city of Boston can give you a monthly rent of $2800 to $3000 depending on how good the apartment/ house is maintained and it costs less than $600,000 to buy again 10 miles outside Boston where a white collar job gets you $130,000 minimum pa. The jobs are also not necessarily in the city of Boston so you could be working in a suburb of Boston hence could be living 3 miles away from work or 12 miles from work give or take any possibility.
This is very correct around half a million dollars you can get a much better deal in major city in usa may be slightly say 5-10 miles from downtown.with much better amenities once you move outside of your home I mean cleaning, infra etc..
Nikhil’s counter is absolutely right. Deflation in china’s real estate is best example of it. No demand means no supply. Population is not increasing rather it is seeing decline all over the world and India will not be exception to this.
Bangalore had a population of 1 Cr. just prior to the pandemic Feb. 2020. In 2024 it is estimated to be 1.4 Cr. Overall population might decline. But urbanisation and growth of particular sectors and cities will continue
China example doest fits us, our infrastructure is trying to catch up to the demand which is increasing the price. In cities Infrastructure is way behind compared the kind of population that lives there.
We need more inventory and lots of planned urban affordable housing which is not happening.
Artificial shortage has been made by government and builder nexus it take decades to convert farm land for residential use which drive the residential price sky high. We are land rich country still facing problems like Singapore because of slow government policies.
Japan already has a huge problem of millions of abandoned homes in non urban areas.
Problem is we know china population is falling and Indias is still rising
Not for another 27 years boss
It's not about developers who have raised the prices of real estate. It's Banking System for whom Home Loan Interest is steady income.
Partly true, but developers could sell the inventories mostly because of home loans, otherwise their buyers would have been in less in number.
Exactly banks use this properties as collateral how will a bank lower the value of the collateral no bank will do it they will happily increase the value of the collateral this game will unravel but it will take time
Correct. Bank has Midas touch. Whatever they touch turns into gold.
Comparing real estate (land) to fake estate (apartments) is like comparing gold coin with copper nickel.
While Land value will skyrocket in 10 years, Flat value will see a fall after 10 years.
If you want to invest money in the real real estate, Invest in tier 2 and tier 3 cities across India where there is potential for your investment to grow in the next 10-15 years, Where you can afford to park a major chunk of your funds and wait for it to grow. Entering real estate in large metro cities is not just expensive it's not very lucrative in short term due to saturation of the market. Buying real estate in large metro cities like Mumbai or Bangalore in partnership will only expose you to future litigations, If you want to own real estate own it under your own name.
As someone with experience ve in the industry, Very, very smart advice!
until INDIA remains the top IT service provider country, money will keep flowing in & Indian real estate will be stable & grow in a good average, but the day India lost its crown of being one of the top IT services provider then the real estate sector will start to go down like anything.
Absolutely true.
it will come as south Asian pick up Chinese investment and gain English. They are getting both good education and skills
Vietnam 🇻🇳 say namaste
Real estate is basically an inventory, and not land. So better live on rent and buy a land in remote location and wait till it gets developed enough to increase in value.
💯
Nice perspective 👍
This is true. Rental yield in india does not justify being stuck in an illiquid market. Renting is just better
Only if rental price is in check . The landlord is getting too greedy
Bengaluru's biggest SCAMMERS( REALTORS) sitting on the table ! Thanks for spiking property prices tho
@@Pallab-wx3rf floods & traffic
Totally...! Wiping out forests trying to acquire land that are protected and then spiking the prices. There's absolutely no meaning in the Bangalore's housing prices.
I think price of Flats can go down because it's supply has no limit and fluctuations can happen in it's demand .
The price of land will never go down because it's supply is limited and it will be always in demand.
Doesn't apply to India- inflation in land prices is a tsunami that will lift even 20-30 old flat prices- and it already has in most metro cities
Their argument is urbanisation, higher income and population. China had all these things. Look at their real estate.
Very true.
Awesome reference bro
Their population is decreasing and they built more than demand
China had massive oversupply.
China is way ahead of us. It would take 20-30 years for us to reach us there…
Come to Noida, the prices have fallen by atleast 20%. It's just that old home buyers aren't willing to sell at loss and sticking to it thinking MAYBE after 5-6 years it will fetch them some Value.
Dude which sector.. I don't think so..they have stagnanted but not dropped
Where in Noida , at least the gated communities are going strong
@@raviaryatube @princeofheaven19 bought a plot on Noida Expressway in Sector 168 during 2011-12 Noida Hype (FOMO Trap). And next month I'll be selling that plot at 30% more valuation at which I had bought back then.
Have been trying to sell that plot after COVID, but no buyer gave an attractive offer. This is the best valuation I've gotten.
If I had spent that money in FD then my money had almost tripled during these 12 years.
@@raviaryatube That is what he is telling, they are not ready to sell at lower prices.
@@prashanthb6521 yes if no one is selling..then falling price by whatever percentage doesn't matter
90% of India earn less than 25k pm, remaining 10% 5-7 % earm between 50k-1 lakh, 2-3 % earning 1lakh to 3lakh pm, then how come and who buying such large real estate residential apartment where price touching 80-90lKh ,and 3-7 crore in major city, here not considering the vast amount of comercial real estate, how is this miss match working, can pls someone explain , how
@@navusingh6125 black money & NRIs. Also few new millionaires are buying these like crazy which leads to increase in price but common people don't have that money.
For these common people owning such properties are a dream so when one of is got lucky with money, the first thing they buy is real estate or cars, and the cycle continues
Great Points.
Those who are at top of buckets have multiple properties.
I think builders exaggerate demands numbers. There must be many who are willing to sale but haven't getting a buyer.
Don't go by numbers, small businesses too have black money. Secondly, you don't buy real estate with 1 year income, there is bank leverage on that
You are abosolutely right, and let me tell you it's the NRIs who are buying these properties in India for investment purposes. These builders who have high pressure sales offices who can sell sand at 1 cr. per kilo to anybody, so these guys sell Under construction properties to these investors and mostly aspiring homeowners who think they have a home but in reality it's trap. They sign treacherous contracts for the UC properties where builder can get away with the money, and even if they complete that property, it's sub-par at best but their value has already been inflated.
Real estate market in India is just a bubble which will burst soon.
@@shahijgdEven after a point if the income does not increase proportionally there will be NPA happening all over the banking industry and a chain reaction will happen and will take the shape of a loop, like China.
Stupidity is to expect flats prices to increase.. simply because chances of getting demand of a 10 yo flat is negligible.. i have a 5yo 2BHK which I am trying to sell for 2 years no luck.. sometimes I feel if i had kept the money in fd it would be better..
Is ur flat in some small G+4 building? Is it some high rise tall tower. It's your issue that you bought the wrong property right?
@@harshalgawai746 nope it's actually a beautiful well developed society with all amenities
The Leaf Yewalewadi has 5 towers, with 14 floors each and 475 units on offer.
Spread over an area of 10.8 acres,
Problem is the builder made some budget flat in the same society and they are being sold at heavy discount.. and we are suffering
The uncle can't believe that RE can go down ever!
He is prestige group owner irfan Razaak
Uncle is one of the biggest RE guys in India
@@JaihindGM Yes. Understandable. His NW depends on it so I can see why.
And he is right 😂😂
Maybe not in his lifetime 😅
Here is my perspective. In Houston during pandemic the Real Estate market surged like crazy. 3 years down the line the market is crashing. Lot of houses were built looking at the boom, but no takers as people dont have money nor the interest rates are low. Prices have dropped upto 10%.
People in india are hyper FoMo when it comes to homes. Thats the reason real estate downturn doesnt seem like a possibility for both buyers and realtors. I think once vertical expansion goes full scale FoMo will evaporate and prices wil be affordable. In the bargain many realtors wiill lose a lot of money. Thats ok becauee they have been greeedy and croony for a very long time.
Just like the Titanic was considered unsinkable, many believe that real estate prices will never decline.
Very good discussion. India has very few cities where the next generation want to live… The prices would go up for a very long time..
Any real estate developer or gold reseller will always says its ultimate asset but I believe we are heading towards to ghost city similar to Detroit max 15 to 20 years ( no one is considering environmentally issues)
Exactly. Its like asking advice from the theif how to stop stealing 😅
@@PABJEEGamer A better Analogy would be if you ask a seller, should it be worth it buying his product he'll always say yes.
But you need to factor inflation, LTCG, maintananca charges, regostration charges, broker charges which is equal to depreciating capital. 10 years before (say 2013) a property worth 1 crore in all major cities is now worth just 1.6 to 1.8 crores excluding inflation, LTCG, maintananca charges, regostration charges, broker charges which is not even worth as the value did not double just like FD investment. So real estate/house is not an investment. It is just a personal requirement.
The value of asset is proportionate to time. Real estate is such an asset class, which takes upward trend with few minor hiccups. With huge population comes huge demand and competition.
@@Mahindrank-w6k That's the Tax Man taking his bite of the pie.
Real estate prices are directly related to the population,
India will peak its population in 2045 also given the rate of urbanisation, i believe agricultural land is a good investment opportunity now which is also tax free, better yields
The price of real estate is in land which has been there hundreds of thousands of years before any of us existed . It doesn't create anything new and it is not a relocatable asset . Someday humans are going to realise the few older people got lucky just because they were born few years early . People doing average income jobs can no longer afford a roof over their head in most part of the world anymore
He will never say there is going to be a collapse - not a fool to harm his own business.
One good thing about all the builders in this podcast is they take white money cheque for flats and lands
Residential property prices can go down , if supply is more than demand in a particular area
There is no price tag and no measure of oversupply. Also, appetite of seller is high, so doesn't matter till long time
But you need to factor inflation, LTCG, maintananca charges, regostration charges, broker charges which is equal to depreciating capital. 10 years before (say 2013) a property worth 1 crore in all major cities is now worth just 1.6 to 1.8 crores excluding inflation, LTCG, maintananca charges, regostration charges, broker charges which is not even worth as the value did not double just like FD investment. So real estate/house is not an investment. It is just a personal requirement.
The only favorable argument for investing in real-estate companies is that buying home is not a rational math driven decision in India. It has always been and will be an emotional decision to a large extent. Rationality dicatatea that renting will always be a better option than buying. We are yet to see a phase where that will not hold true.
you got no idea what's coming
Already gone down, see vasai virar or just outside Mumbai buildings prices go down as soon as you buy and building become too old within few years. The old builders have become stubborn as also can be seen here 😂
Bro, i m from vasai , 1 bhk in new building cost 60 lakhs , which was 30 lakhs 4 years ago..
But you need to factor inflation, LTCG, maintananca charges, regostration charges, broker charges which is equal to depreciating capital. 10 years before (say 2013) a property worth 1 crore in all major cities is now worth just 1.6 to 1.8 crores excluding inflation, LTCG, maintananca charges, regostration charges, broker charges which is not even worth as the value did not double just like FD investment. So real estate/house is not an investment. It is just a personal requirement.
@@Mahindrank-w6k i was talking about 3-4 years ago.. today 60 lakh is a decent amt to live in vasai..
@@DK4u2007 they're increasing in the name of Bullet train and new Highway but see what happened to 41 buildings in Nalasopara. Even big projects don't have basics like water or 24 hr electricity or security at night outside the building premises.
Exactly try selling a 15 year old apartment for 1.5cr or 1cr
No one buys specially if building condition is bad
Simple fact .. A strong job market will make price go higher due to demand and weak job market puts deflation.. The entire commercial real estate market around the world is very weak even today compared to residential market. Its all demand from the employers and employed people.
I think people should focus on innovation real estate never lasts long. One crisis everything is done
One important pointer why it will not reduce even in 30yrs. There are a lot of people who:
- Currently are not living a house because they cannot afford it, mostly below poverty line
- Joint family, recent trend shows a lot of young people are now preferring independent house.
95% of those who are poor will be stuck in debt spiral. They'll be in EMI trap. That's how all advertising companies and e-commerce makes money.
Joint family to nuclear family trend is there, but since population has started to decrease, people will not buy new homes. Once their parents are dead or they're dependent, young folks move with them.
The truth, you don’t have any safe assets where you can invest apart from gold funds, or mutual funds, and that’s actually the best investment rather than real estate
The key is good and wide roads that enable expansion of the cities. If there is easy mobility, everything will follow.
I feel that they are being very optimistic. Population will gradually reduce after few years which they are not accounting.
Nope,
Even if population reduces, urbanization won't stop
People used to live in joint family before while its not case now. So, large family vs small family doesnt stand. 😮😊❤
While Nikhil tries to present an alternative view, the whole podcast is heavily skewed in one direction. Wish there was someone to balance the dialogue.
Congratulations on buying your new home Nikhil
Real estate is one of the safest bet to park black money and hence as long as black money exist and registration costs remain high, prices will not drop
Irfan Razzak - owner of prestige group is greedy old man looted and spoiled Bangalore real estate market with high prices . Market lost its shine already and it will blast shortly
Brigade, Sobha, etc. are philanthropists?
I disagree on this point. Prestige is much better than Brigade, Sobha and other A-grade builders.
It is a mafia and nexus between builders and politicians - govt needs to step in and moderate
Bro politicians are the government 😂
@@nitishasthana03 🤣 - agreed - what I meant is we need enforcement of laws and better policies where politicians cannot become businessmen and give govt contracts to themselves - at this rate, we will be left with nothing as citizens
@@redemptionneeded
Kuch nahi hone wala
@@Shubham_12344 ruling party periodically change karo, new parties ko chance do. Sabki fategi, sab kaam karenge
Many politicians especially locals have partnerships in those real estate projects.
1:28 indian urbanisation is real problem which not spreading rather it is concentrating
Real Estate will crash, later it will deeper it will be
The complacency of these archaic chair warmers confirms that the market is due for an imminent collapse
The bubble is not in the real estate. Bubble is in the money. Govt and banks print so much money . That they have inflated the value of asset beyond their intrinsic value.
People live in city because of two reasons. In city, with lesser physical efforts, you can earn huge money. Secondly, there is no motivation for anyone to go back to village even if his income goes down later. Once you decide to stay, you borrow from bank to buy house and keep repaying.
work from home will show the real need. Real estate will stagnate in a month. Just do it and see. It will only benefit India, When US work can be done from Bangalore , why cant it be done from Dharwaad or himachal. As of now because we in India have developed only 8-10 cities that's why cost of living is going up up and up. because whole India wants to liv in those cities . This is not supply demand problem. This is poor network design problem
Didn't know these people except Kamath, found it to be an interesting discussion. then I saw who they are. They are in real estate business, of course they'll say real estate demand will always increase. What else are they expected to say about real estate market?
It's the same argument that says Markets always go up in the long term...RE is more solid than any other assets... Both are true...
The way talks with confidence about RE, it appears that real estate is going to fall soon...
Very wise person
Not a single word from these realtors I'd ever believe...these guys have a business that can only profit from money that they siphon from people in the name of Under Construction projects...which rarely get completed on time and even if they do, they are sub-par at best and don't justify their initial asking price.
These realtors are simply creating a Bubble, which will burst very soon
So the low quality products ( delayed possession, sub standard materials used in construction )that we are seeing can be clearly attributed to the confidence builders have because of insane demands in most of the metro cities.
there are still not enough houses in India. Demand is enormous. So prices will never collapse.
In a country which is massively over populated, property market can never crash
Population is a bigger impact on real estate. In next 40 to 50 years, hardly any one put interest on buying real estate because it was already bought by his or her parents or grandparents parents in big cities in India. Demand will eventually go down.
What was the point discussed?
Real estate in India or owning a house in India - 1200 sq ft of a flat or apartment which is at least 30km away from heart of city is over ₹1.2 crore without fitting and wardrobes or other things. In smaller cities the price is the same with an exception that it is just 5-10km from heart of city depending on the city. Can these people tell which class of people have that kind of income to buy a 2BHK house of 1200sq. ft at 1.2crore+other things? It is obviously the very high income group (even amongst salaried class). remember one has to shell out at least ₹80K-90K every month for at least 240 months regardless of one's income which is quite unpredictable with the present geo-political situation.
Its like asking the smuggler have ever stolen money. (S)he obviously say NO. So the real estate moguls can NEVER admit in open platform that real estate price WILL go down ONE DAY. And may not be so in next 5-10 yrs (depending the global situation remains the same without De-Dollarisation, NO Wars/conflicts, ...etc.). because then they are signaling to home buyers that it is not a good choice. And this will have a domino effect on sales and revenue.
BUT the overall Indian population is going down significantly with a TFR of 2.1 below 2.2 or 2.3 which is a safe replacement rate across all communities and religions. PLUS there are significant incest problems of late not attributed to any specific community or religion but over all in all. PLUS there is a growing DINK.
IF ever people could realize or visualize mathematical equation and its effects (I am sure these people with exception of NK are hardly learned forget about being educated to understand visualize math eq.), India's demographic dividend is ONLY for next 10-15 yrs. Had we seen real estate boom before 2000 or 2005? NO It rapidly boomed with some transient of course. The same with doom. It will not be overnight BUT IT WILL HAPPEN in next 15-20 yrs. Till then of course there is party time provided ....NO De-Dollarisation, NO WAR or conflict, ..etc.
If one had told in 2019 in Jan that the world will close down. Countries will close down. ..etc. (S)he would have been forcefully admitted to mental asylum. But did it not happen due to covid? It was first time ever on earth because during previous pandemics, there was no country closure as population hardly travelled beyond their districts.
Compare two flats of the same price, one in Bangalore and another in a smaller city. Rentals in smaller cities are lower.
Flats are not the only component of real estate😂
@@mihir2480 A person who will think between a renting or buying Flat (apartment) can ONLY afford a flat in metro, Tier 1 and Tier 2 cities.
Currently it takes 1 or 2 persons lifetime of earnings to repay the loans to buy a decent 2 BHK in decent locality.
See indeed rates are increasing and the rate of increase is proportional to the development in that area....Also the mindset is changing in Genex...w.r.t affordability like township projects etc etc...where standalone building without amenities are getting redundant....So consider all factors w.r.t what is sellable n appreciating asset ...If you have the right product..it is going to make a difference with multiple x times of appreciation 😊
In india gst should be replaced by empty land tax aka wealth tax and inheritance tax,also real estate ownership should be linked with pan and it should be verified in IT return
Real estate will never decline,looking at the scenarios present generation who likes to leave individually with his wife and kid unlike older days even 5 siblings will leave to gather in single house
To explain person x buys for 1 cr in 2024 , prestige launces for 1.5 , person x think his value has appreciated to 1.5 and he list for 1.8 , person y buys from prestige bcoz he is offerong at 1.5 and same cycle continues ... all the gain is on paper for buyer ... who ever has power to hold will keep holding on paper returns
Real estate, furniture, and auto sectors, characterized by significant investments, flourish when economic conditions support robust consumer spending. Nonetheless, these sectors tend to peak near the end of economic cycles, making them potential harbingers of market decline.
After GST,,,prices of all the building products supplied by major companies for the project are more or less the same in PAN India.. still the gap in cost of flats are exorbitant from state to state with identical amenities and unsold flats are maximum in mumbai still the holding capacity of developers are minimum 5 to 10yrs..it clearly indicates politicians builder nexus. Middle-class is not their target audiences
Prestige properrty on top of a lale bed 3 cr , prime mocation in denver with orivate lake for fishing 3 cr...
Average property prices in all metros have gone beyond the affordable zone, even for the 98 percentile. Only under 1% can buy these properties now. Where is the demand coming from?
Working hard to secure a job, only to face rising prices and spend years repaying EMIs! Those fortunate enough to inherit ancestral wealth truly have an advantage.
Reduce benefits given in 54F from selling old property and investing all gains inbuying a new house.
Timestamps (Powered by Merlin AI)
00:07 - Real estate is considered the best investment class.
01:13 - Real estate prices continue due to population, urbanization, and aspirational demand.
02:13 - Real estate demand is driven by retirees and people from larger cities.
03:17 - Shifting demographics and changing work patterns could impact real estate prices.
04:30 - Real estate prices cannot collapse due to real shortage and increasing demand.
05:31 - Choosing a niche market for luxury housing can bring satisfaction
06:29 - Urbanization driving unprecedented real estate demand
07:25 - Real estate prices can't collapse due to supply-demand dynamics
well some neutral-3rd party should take an inventory of flats/homes which are un-used/not occupied/idle units at least in the major cities to start with.
Real-estate can't down cause of one reason only..BLACK MONEY
Real Estate people are best example of "सावन के अंधे को हमेशा हरा ही हरा नजर आता है।"
Real estate Price correct when is sold at much difference between cost of construction to sold price
Which is ultra luxurious properties
People saying real estate prices not sustainable have been saying it for last 20 years, while thier friends bought flats , plots and did 10x thier value 😂
Plots I stilllll agree flat no in 90% cases as for flat cycle is first 7 years rise next 5 years stagnant rest year very difficult to exit
@@Abcagra that cycle is usual. Apart from location time also matters
@@evensaj yes entry point is critical if u r buying flat only for investment and selling .. if it’s for end use phenomenon remains same for 15 year cycle
@@Abcagra buying a flat should be for roof, not a good investment imo
@@evensaj yes agree
They don't have quantifiable answer to Nikhil. Mostly using random data to benefit their argument.
If banks wdnt have provided loans , 90% of the ppl wnt buy homes
Indian population growth is already declining in middle class, rich people. We will see the effects in 20 years.
भाई इंडियन real-estate can't go down because of constant blackmoney supply is the only reality....
In pune every builder is asking 30-40 lack cash(black money).
और निर्मलाजी salary वाले के पीछे पडी है...
Govt should reduce loan interest to those who buy home for own use and don’t own any other property!
Well the point nikhil was trying to make was a shift in the population pyramid..yes that can definately happen.. And the prices of real estate might tank.. Bcoz basic supply demand economics. Bcoz india is not japan land over here is not scarce it is abundant
What Indian cities and towns especially tier 2 & tier 3 need are better & bigger parks & grounds for jogging and running & for kids to play, ideally in every municipal ward, more greenery and better drainage & waste management. Any city that works on these three aspects will attract good investment.
They collectively dodged the question; but It’s kinda interesting how they dodged the question .
We know that the prices are fundamentally fueled by fomo. But the way they are projecting the demand for the near future, it like they have a fomo effect amongst real estate investors or companies that fuels their minds to pump up the market prices.
What everyone is ignoring is money has flown into real estate from gains made in stock markets to save capital gains tax. Now this has got over with 20% LTCG, investors are first to pull up their pants & run.
Referring an elderly person uncle is soo good to hear. Otherwise calling an elderly person by name just because it is professional is not so pleasing.
Why you didn't ask about deforestation and what real estate is doing for plantation. Mainly real estate is responsible for cuttting trees. Government, real estate and people demanding more houses have to understand that we have limited space. And NO more plantes.
fear a housing crash due to people buying homes above asking prices with little equity. If prices drop, affordability and potential foreclosures may arise, worsened by future layoffs and rising living costs. I want to invest more than $300k, but I'm not sure on how to mitigate risk.
Irfan chacha affordable apartments launch karo ya sirf podcast mein hi gyaan doge
Buying a home is always a loss. I have been living n my own flat for 20 yrs.bought for 20 lacs when gold was Rs500 per gram. Had i bought gold for 20 lacs then, i will be having gold worth 2.7 crores. My flat sells at 1 crire now. I woukd have paid 50 lacs for rent. Loss of 1.2 crores n buying . Only benefit is u can live peacefully without tension of owners attitude and trouble of vacating frequently.
name your price for the peace you got?
No assets are safe. All have it's own vulnerability. It only takes one scam to wipe out investor money in stocks/ MF.
So best options is to diversify across different assets.
Simply put this asset class doesn't make sense because of its PE ratio or ROI whatever metric you chose.
PE is 25 in few localities in Bangalore. Much better than many blue chip stocks..
Alternative Investments such as PE, VC, stocks and Commodities has always out performed real estate, even cryptocurrency has out performed real estate
The problem is today's generation has never witnessed a macro recession in india. Nor imagined.
They think middle class in India is growing 😂😂😂 and upper middle class wanted to leave this country then whom are you wanted to sell...😂😂😂
Didn't want to go through whole podcast, but are they talking about flats alone? What about independent bungalows?
I Think People understand that the problem here Isn't Going to Be a population decline or less demand but affordability. As Job Opportunities Shrink with the Advent Of AI and automation, Wealth Disparity Will Increase. We will see a Massive Decline Soon, but the Demand Will Never Decrease. Value Capital Will Probably Shrink and Inflate, And The Cycle Will Continue.
Real estate market is one oversupply away from collapse.
Oh God . Prices have increased due to purchase of properties for investment & money parking by ultra wealthy individuals. Majority of real estate transactions are almost 50% black of market price and not the Govt. price. We have enough land mass and also enough resources to build ultra affordable housing but it’s the nexus that is the result of heavy tax burden on businesses that has made real estate expensive for the new generation of the country. Its mot that u see people getting rich off of real estate but its the people who are ultra rich through other businesses venture into it.
As long as there is significant black money RE will not crash. Due to hugh income taxes, there will be always black money.....
Real estate will never crash, since investor will invest and other investor will buy. Caution: end user should stay away from paying unreasonable and unrealistic price, and shoud avoid buying in tier A city.
Gossip..investing in any assets are good ..
Kamath needs to ask shorter questions. People get confused if it’s a question or his usual long rambling answer
RE prices do go down.
Best example, Jaipur
First you should not categorize flats in the category of real estate as they are deprecating assets and the life of concrete structure is fixed. If the appartment are high rise then even the plan of redevelopment is very tough to implement.
Secondly, affordability has become an issue for larger population because of skyrocket prices. Most new high earning people can not afford a house today unless they decide to become a bonded labour to pay the price for rest of their life.
Third the market is very opaque and there are lot of middlemen and transaction cost involved.
The decision is being taken considering capital appreciation (gains) rather than cashflows that's why their rental yields are low.