Can Hero Make an IMPOSSIBLE Call?
ฝัง
- เผยแพร่เมื่อ 24 ก.ค. 2024
- Bart provides street-by-street analysis in a hand where the caller gets himself in a levelling war with a tough opponent. Can and should the hero make what seems to be an impossible call? Join Bart as he breaks down the hero's thought process and provides insightful coaching.
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0:00 - Intro
1:26 - Preflop
2:10 - Flop
8:49 - Turn
12:15 - River
19:35 - Hero Decision
19:45 - Reveal
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How would you have played this hand differently as the hero?
I think hero needs to raise bigger preflop, to bet bigger on the flop, and bet bigger on the turn.
Fold pre
I'd bet the river
Bet $1300-$1400 pre. Bet 2/3 combined pot on flop. Jam turn.
@@EllieBanks333 You got bigger balls than a lot of guys I know.
Amazing bluff. Villian is incredible for finding it. It's so easy to check behind, hoping to win, being scared of everything, and villian just found a phenomenal spot.
This was one of the better hands ever on your show imo. Very interesting
Being from Cali myself, I'm surprised no one tried to be like "oh you cant bet 1000 when the previous bet was 560". I see it several times a day sometimes. People don't understand you only have to double the raise amount and not the actual bet.
keep up the good work bart, haven't missed a video in months
he really is the best breaking hands down rite now. I like Doug Polk but he gets a little to technical and deep in the GTO Hole sometimes. Bart keeps it pretty easy to understand.
Agree. Bart is the best on TH-cam
I think a river block would be interesting. Like 1k?
Villain would have to have a ton of balls raise that without the Ks.
Hero could lose to some flushes but can still get called by plenty of Ax
Agree. I feel 1300-1400 blocker bet is a good play.
Imagine hero block betting, and V raising as a bluff. That would be sick. If hero doesn't over-bet on the turn, and then checks river, he's really setting himself up for this move by V.
Block for what? Block bets need to be able to get called by worse. No chance here lmao. Block to prevent a bluff that he can still run anyways?
Thank you so much Bart, for your content. Keep it up and I wish you the best. This remains one of the best, if not the best cash game study and review tool for anyone wanting to improve or for aspiring cash game pros like myself. As we continue to build our bankrolls and improve our game all the time. The learning continues.
love youre work bart ty
I think I like caller’s line and logic here all the way. Sometimes the runout just doesn’t cooperate.
Folding river seems right to me, results aside. I think AK no spade is the primary bluff for sure but we have to wonder if villain has all combos from flop. If yes as seems maybe the case in retrospect, it probably becomes a call. That’s 9 full bluff combos. For value, 3 combos of JJ with a spade, 3 combos of KK with a spade, 3 combos of AxKs all get here at pretty close to full frequency. In a spot like this I tend to discount the bluffs a lot more than the value hands that make sense because there are just a lot of ways that the hand could have gone differently vs those combos (AK might fold flop, it also might not realize in game that it needs to bluff river) so I think maybe theoretically over fold vs population. Maybe call vs this specific opponent.
I could see a check on the turn just to protect ourselves a bit out of position from this pot getting out of control. But I also was thinking neither player should turn flushes here. I think if we do bet turn the sizing should be bigger is my only nitpick.
Hero has to 4B bigger pre, bet bigger on flop, and over-bet pot on turn. No way V is getting to the river and making this play if hero bets bigger on the earlier streets.
Hero has an ace. Two aces three non spade kings. Only 6 non spade bluff combos.
Villain has two AKs, 3 KK with a spade,.and 3 JJ with a spade. AA can go for value IMO, so one combo there, maybe smaller sizing though.
9 value to 6 bluffs. Seems like villain is balanced AF.
This was a good one.
Interesting hand! Thanks
I think a fair way to deal with pot size here might be to discount the main pot by 1/2 since all things equal ( assumption ), all in player will win the side pot 1/3 of the time
so 1160 + 880 for a total pot size of 2040, therefore $500 would be about 25% on the flop
14:20 this discussion about villain having 22 or 33 or 66 here is just way out in lala land. It was stated that he is a good player. So he is either. Good player and doesn’t have those hands, or he’s actually a bad player and can have them. His most likely holds when he calls flop bet is AK. JJ isn’t floating here. Maybe with a spade.
Very intresting hand
I mean, I get it. Seems sketch, good call.
I just struggle to make calls where I am losing to a lot of their "bluffs" even when I think I have the read. How often is the average low stakes player wrong on bluff v value, even before this point.
If hero is never checking a spade on the river than the villian can bluff a little wider. Might be a good hand to use minimum defense frequency. Hero can have sets of aces and queens played this way (6 combos) and AQ (9 combos). Call with the sets and fold the AQ.
This was an interesting hand. It makes me think about coining a term. We know Bart has reverse pot odds, so I'd like to claim reverse hand reading. What flush does hero ever have when he checks this river? During the call the idea of JJ got floated... really? Hero bets the turn here with JJ & then checks his flush on the river?? Villain in this hand was described as a pro right? I think he knows hero virtually never has a flush here. Maybe once in a blue moon hero decides to check the nuts here to induce, but no one is reading him for that.
If I was the villain here, I'd be thinking hero has no spades & I have no spades. Mr. short stack is pretty likely taking the main pot. Bluffing frequency was correctly discussed as low early in this hand, but ignored when it should be nearly 100% on river. If hero never has a flush, then any 1 pair holding should be bluffed. Once we realize this, finding bluffs for villain is easy. Any AK with no spade. KK with no spade. AQ with no spade. Does villain call pre with AJs ? At any rate, hero should have continued betting on this river even though that is counter-intuitive. Or he can bluff catch. But check-folding this river as played is a mistake.
When hero takes this small-bet sizing on every street, I think V can show up with a lot more flushes on the river, when he's IP against hero. When hero checks river, V correctly surmises hero doesn't have a flush, so V can bet all his flushes for value, and check-back with some of the stronger non-flush hands in his range. Every hand in V's range is going to have some showdown value, so he'd have to turn one of the weakest hands in his range into a bluff. But what hands does he have that A) weren't 5B's pre, B) continued on flop and turn, and C) aren't strong enough to just check back, or D) might bet to get hero off a chop?
Does AJs even get to the turn, much less the river? KK is probably a 5B pre, and it feels crazy to turn KK into a bluff, but I guess that's one. Maybe AKo if V just flats the 4B pre IP, but I wonder how often AKo with no spade gets to the river. I could see V playing AQ this way, to get hero off a chop.
But really, that's it - V's bluffs are all hands with some showdown value, some that could have 5B pre, and some sliver of hands that wouldn't 5B pre, some of which would just be chopping.
I agree hero should have continued to bet river, the way this was played. I would have preferred larger bet sizing on all previous streets, especially the turn. But the way this was played, once hero checks river, I think he's toast when V bets. Just because V knows hero doesn't have a flush, that doesn't mean V can just liberally bluff. Hero could have flopped or turned top set. Hero could get sticky with top 2. Hero might be getting tricky with JsJx or KsKx. I wouldn't expect V to be bluffing here often enough to make this call. I'd expect him to show a K- or J-high flush if we do call.
Kudos to V for owning hero's soul on this one.
@@1vailchris As you know, I usually dislike small sizing. In this particular spot I did not really see it as a huge issue. As to what hands V might 5 bet pre, I think Bart discussed that in the video. I agree with him that a 5 bet is not mandatory in this configuration. Some of your later points I'm afraid I disagree with....
" Just because V knows hero doesn't have a flush, that doesn't mean V can just liberally bluff." But he did! And he did it with a hand that had some showdown value. And I must add that I would also. If I'm villain here I'm betting any hand I arrive here with.
" Hero could get sticky with top 2" But he didn't! And having top 2 here blocks the sets. Would it help if hero had a stronger hand? Let's say hero had QQ here. Does that change his river play?
I stand by my read that hero does not bet turn & check river here with any hand that makes a flush.
@@EllieBanks333 I think hero misplayed his hand, and V got lucky that hero didn't snap him off. If you would have called here, as hero, V would look pretty silly for turning AKo into a bluff.
@@EllieBanks333 Curious what bet sizing you'd take here, as V? Are you expecting to lose the main pot to the CO? V bets $3k into a side-pot of just under $4k. Hero's getting almost 3:1 on the combined pot.
It just seems like such a weird spot for V to bluff with AKo no spade, and to take this sizing. I agree that AKo and KK aren't necessarily a mandatory 5B pre for V, and JJ is definitely not a 5B pre. V could conceivably have AxKs, KsKx, KsJs, JsJx, or Js9s, but there really aren't that many thick value hands V can credibly rep, especially since AKo and KK are going to be 5B pre at least some of the time, and AxKs, KsKx, and KsJs would all raise turn at some frequency.
Hero could conceivably be checking KsKx to induce a bet, or checking JsJx planning to check-call. Hero might be planning to check-call with AA/QQ/AQ no spades. It looks like hero is giving up when he checks, but how many hands does hero have that give up, but still beat V, when V has TPTK, and how many of those are going to fold to V's bluff, the way this was played, when hero is getting 3:1 on a call? Some opponents are just going to make crying calls with all the non-flush hands in hero's range, except perhaps KK/JJ no spade, the two hands V beats, which are just going to fold.
If V wants to bluff this river with AKo no spade, because he thinks hero is scared to bet or call without the nuts, and he thinks hero isn't slow-playing the nuts, I'd think he'd want to go bigger. I understand that logically, if hero is scared, V theoretically can go smaller. But how small can he go before hero feels he's getting too good a price to fold? If hero's scared money, V shouldn't be worried about a bigger bet getting a curiosity call.
I get that V's bluff worked here, and you like it, but you also said you'd have called as hero, in which case it wouldn't have worked. It only worked because hero mis-played his hand and put himself in this tough river spot. This view of V's play seems very player-specific / results-oriented.
@@1vailchris I thought villains sizing was fine. I might have gone slightly larger, but I would not really be looking to polarize. I want it to look like a value bet.
I see we are also back on the KK possibility. So obviously it is possible that hero has KKws for the nuts & is checking to induce. Anything is possible. However, my question would be how often does hero bet 1K on the turn when KK is usually no good in this configuration & then check river when it becomes the nuts? Especially since so many people are going to check back here. I think villain has a lot of AK here & most players will just check back in this spot and realize their showdown value. This is why I liked villain play so much. I find it creative. I think it functions well in a spot where you will be beat a fair amount, but you also realize it's very difficult for your opponent to call.
so here is what im thinking, you should be betting the flop as IF you have the spades to cut out any weird stuff, yes sometimes you will get blown out but you can decide that later down the line. it's important to keep YOUR range open post flop and turn for these exact reasons especially against a good player who will do tricky shit and find bluffs like this
It’s really difficult for him to have the flush.. and I can make the arguement that in order to make the bet he has to have the King of spades. Good hand for review
Agree. What flush can he have? KK, JJ, with a spade. Maybe but unlikely.
I think V could have KK/JJ, but when hero checks the river, it looks like he's giving up, so JsJx could bet there, knowing he's only losing to KsKx. I don't know if any worse pairs with a spade are getting to the river, but if 9s9x somehow held on that long, it would take some pretty big balls to bet.
It’s not really two over cards on the flop because he’s likely sharing the A with AQ or losing to QQ. He’s got two overs to JJ and TT which are 12 combos and is losing to AQ which is 12 combos and QQ which is 3. AK no spade has to be a fold no matter the bet size
what about AK of hearts...
AKhh should call I think
Just fold river. Gotta bet bigger on flop and turn to fold out pairs with a spade.
Because on the flop our primary goal should be to fold out hands with like 8% equity?
5:28 “I have to be very strong making that 4 bet in that spot” he says, as he makes the 4 bet with AQ off 🙄🙄
AQo is very strong sir
Is this never a lead on the river for 1.8 to 2? It seems like it just makes it so much harder to call a bet after checking when you can essentially represent what the villain would be betting with at the top
I’m a new player so if I’m wrong please let me know so I don’t try any crazy things at my 1-2 games
My guess was Villian had KK. I would of flipped a coin to see if I thought one of them was a Spade.
As played, couldn't MP have 55 with the 5 of spades and slow played a flopped set, then rivering a baby flush? If he came to the same conclusion that you did that you would not have a spade in this scenario, he would know that his spade would be good (and most likely his set was already good unless you flopped QQQ or turned AAA). I know it's an "unorthodox raise" from MP from 5's, but sometimes good players mix it up to throw off their opponents, or to be aggressive if they sense the table is too tight.
The way this was played, V's river bet seems like he's repping JJ with the Js. V likely would have 5B over hero's min-click 4B pre with AA/KK/AKs. JsJx would just flat call on this flop, and flat turn. When hero checks river, hero shouldn't be slow-playing KsKx, so V can v-bet with the J-high flush. Not sure how many other hands can bet for value in V's spot, the way this was played. All of the hands in V's range are going to have some showdown value, so this isn't a spot where V is going to have a lot of bluffs when he takes this smallish sizing on the river. Hero really should have bet bigger pre and on the flop, and over-bet turn. As played, I think the river is just a fold.
I’m going to lucky chances tonight 🍀
@crushlivepoker hey bart or any reading. Im playing 1 3nl at Caesars and im 185 deep w 7 players and get pk 10s utg. Raise to 16 and get 3 callers. Flop.comes out 10c 3s 4c amd small blind donks into me for 55. I think for mab 1 min stack a push my 170 my right folds amd button cold calls my all in amd sb folds. Turn is complete brick but the last card is a club and despite being slowed rolled i knew he hit amd turns over AJ clubs. Could i or should i of played this any different. Whats crazy is it was the last hand inwas playing. Figured i take it down here,good, if not iv got the nuts. Also guy in sb told me he folded 2 baby clubs when i turned over my top set. Can anyone please offer any suggestion. If i call then jam turn with 130 hes getting about the same price. Dont know if he would of folded but i dont think so. I just dont know. I guess if he though his overs were live then mab not a bad call but im a HUGE favorite especially after atleast 2 clubs were folded.and he lost to to pair the board. Thanks guys id really appreciate ANY AND ALL RESPONSES
Just a cooler. I like jamming flop to get value from flush draws. Not like you’re gonna fold to a jam on the turn so may as well stick it in that shallow.
@danielniese535 thanks for the response. Really do appreciate it..still ended the trip up but that pot would have been nice. Really seem to run bad in big spots but that's poker...
Should the hero have bet over 35% pot on the turn to give for example a 12 out hand a bad price?
I think I'm betting g a bit larger on flop. Initially my thought was 1200. Now thinking about 900 to 1k.
As played, I’m definitely folding as well, but I also would’ve shoved on the flop
So AK without a backdoor should just auto fold flop even if it’s a small bet? Given the hero is C betting a wide range why wouldn’t people call there? Isn’t that a decent hand even as a float?
Amazing hand
I kind of think you should have made your pre-flop three bet at least 1400 to 1600 minimum giving a good player two to one on his money is a pretty good deal
Interesting. I will give my analysis. I feel to be honest that the hero analysis here was not concise enough. He made a few valid points but when he said that the opponent can have a set of aces, that was way off. He needs to look at his bet sizing again. There was a slim chance that the villain would play aces this way but very slim. We are all learning and improving and that is what makes cash game poker an intriguing process. So, back to the pot: The 4 bet preflop, AQ offsuit is fine. Fairly standard. I don’t like the flop bet sizing, hero decided to bet only 20-25% pot, I feel that 40% is better. On the turn, we hit top 2 pair but we need to bet and protect against 7s, 8s, 9s, 10s, JJ, KK, that hold a spade, we get value from ace king, ace Jack, king queen, king jack suited, no spade, maybe even 10s but that would be with the 10 spade. The turn bet sizing needs to be at least 60% pot minimum, 70% is better, so we charge and force the weak flush draws to fold and maybe we get called by ace king, ace Jack, maybe king queen, no spade. We bet the turn strong to find out where we are and we can always consider the fold if the villain makes a big raise on the turn, he is saying he has a set or a flush. We can evaluate if he does raise. On the river, I think we have 2 plays, make a blocker bet, about 30% pot, say 1300 or 1400 into 3900 pot or we can check and evaluate if opponent goes for the bet. But the problem with the check is that a decent, experienced player make the play and turn a few holdings into bluffs, like ace king no spade, ace Jack no spade, not really caring what he have because he knows that hero does not have the king of spades. Probably not the jack of spades. The hero is not checking the nut flush. This means that if we do check we have to be prepared to hero. I feel the main mistake in this hand was the turn sizing it was too small and allowed the villain to see the river card, fairly cheap. Then the hero got exploited on a horrible runout. Unfortunate but it’s poker and it happens. It’s amazing how many times you face a brutal runout when you size down bets or slow play.
100% any spade or aa should bet for value. That nice Bluff from the villain defiantly a crusher thinking player. The hero never has a spade good fold tho don't think you can ever call
Why does Villain need to turn red AK into a bluff? Kinda seems like a punt to me. If you don’t think that is good after hero checks the spade River why did you call the turn?
I’m probably wrong but would like to hear an explanation if anyone knows.
Maybe trying to bluff a lower spade but idk if the hero would have that given preflop.
He bluffs off two pairs and a set exactly. He knows the caller doesn't have space.
Normally turning TPTK into a bluff doesn't make much sense as it has considerable showdown value and better hands are unlikely to fold. However here we have a very narrow range for hero and villain might have deduced that AQ/AK forms a large part of hero's range which they will fold without a spade.
Question. I make it $15 and get three callers so there is $60 in the pot. The Flop has three random diamonds. I have the naked ace of diamonds. The guy next to me bets 125 and it folds back to me. He then shows me that he has Jack ten of diamonds and says that if I call he is jamming on the next street for 800 more dollars. Should I fold, call or go all in?
If it’s binding you should call
Contingent bets, such as "if you do X, I'll do Y", are not binding. In this case, you know he has a made hand, and six diamonds are accounted for. Your odds of making the nuts on the turn are roughly 15%. You have to call $125 to win $185. You should fold and find a better spot, unless you think you can make him fold by raising, since you have a blocker to the nuts.
I haven't seen the result yet. Fold on the river probably. 50% of all the pocket pairs contain a spade. And if the villain has a set he also beats the hero. Then again, he can always bluff. Villain has Ax or Qx they can be bluffing. But 1/4 of those hands win.
That's a pretty good bluff from the villain, ngl, I'm never calling here
It's an insanely good bluff, but hero's hand is pretty face up, allowing V to own him.
What hand is villain even trying to bluff out here? Maybe hero’s exact hand or a lower spade. Don’t think hero has any low spades given preflop. Seems like a punt if you’re only trying to bluff 1 hand (red AQ)
@@danielniese535 Hero could have all the combos of AA/KK/QQ/JJ/TT/AQ/AK with no spade, when he checks the river.
I think the logic is sensible that he doesn't have a lot of spades, and given the betting before the river, he doesn't seem very strong. Seemed like a river worth a call...
The villian is an absolute sicko. I think given that it is so likely one of the players probably has a flush it's an agonising fold. Without the main pot I'm inclined to call against a pro, as block value so maybe more bluffs? Red jacks, maybe T9s
I get that hero bet small flop and turn, but I really don't think most competent players are getting here with JJ or 99 with a spade given that there's an all in to beat and hero should have a very strong hand. Seems like lighting money on fire. Really just seems like the villain knows hero has no spade and is bluffing because now the side pot is large enough that it doesn't even matter if he can't win the main. He dumb lucks his way into a win with AxKs sometimes, but that's so narrow.
I think hero's min-click 4B pre allows V to show up on the river with a lot of flushes. V has position and a skill advantage over hero. Hero's small sizing on flop and turn allow him to continue with a wide range, both for value and with hands that can steal the pot on the river if hero slows down and checks.
@@1vailchris uh, why? It wasn't a minclick to the villain. It was a minclick over the all in player. It was a massive raise to the villain.
@@Jermo484No.... that was definitely not a huge raise. The raise was less than half pot (840 into 1760) with deep stacks (i.e. implied odds) behind.
@@Jermo484 Hero's pre-flop 4B was basically a min-click. It was barely 2x the 3B jam. V is getting 2:1 on a call. With position and a skill advantage over hero, and with these stack depths, V is incentivized to call with a pretty wide range. Hero should have 4B to $1300-$1400.
When hero bets small on flop and turn, then checks river, he's basically giving up. The way this was played, hero has almost no flushes on the river, so V can liberally bet with all his flushes. I don't love V's bluff here, but when hero checks, and V bets, it makes sense to fold.
@@1vailchris I think you need to rewatch the preflop action
i never have the balls to call here. i might have block bet river though
From Villians point of view Hero cannot have K spades
And he’s capable
Just sayin
Don’t know if I call tho
Jam all day on turn
“He can get ace queen to fold” yeah. Somebody is ever thinking that ever…
I’d give the villain small pocket pair pre flop
Kings no spade is isolating pre after you put all that money in
Just saw the reveal. Poker is easy.
If this were being played for $100 instead of $10,000 you’d have called in a second. That should tell you something
For me hero never has a flush as played, which is obvious to villlain.
JJs at best, kings not existing hoping for a bluff.
Other player is almost irrelevant given size of side pot.
I would consider playing Kj the way villain played if he ever gets there, but doesn't. So really only qqs or aces that are blocked.
Think it has to be a call, as played, could lose to a random spade from all in, but given monies invested and expected return from the side pot. Feel its a call. Fair chance to scoop with randomness of all in player
why would hero never have a flush as played?
There's a slight chance hero could have played KsKx this way, and checked river to induce a bet from V. If hero does have KsKx, and he bets river, what hands can call? This is a spot where hero would have few if any bluffs on the river. It's unlikely V would call with a worse flush, a straight, a set, or 2P.
@@explicit90 only two that make any sense preflop are jack's and kings with a spade. Kings could check hoping v bets, but then has to call a raise.
Jack's can be beat and the only other hand.
In this configuration with ace on the board what other spades does hero have open 4b! An all in player does he have?
Villain absolutely should know this, so can bluff hero off potentially better locking up the side and potentially beating all in player
I'm sorry that you should have been betting like 1/2 to 2/3 pot and I mean the whole pot not just the small ass little side one. He's 4 betting aces or Kings pre-flop and yes he could have Queens but it's less likely with you holding one. I think you just made that way too easy of a call for him at that price.
I wonder if IP could and would value bet AT+ for value here vs a check being that hero almost never has a flush here. I’ve seen other good pros go pretty light for value on the 4 flush runouts in spots where OOP actually could have a few flushes. The bluffs are AhJh and hands like that.
Unless you think that you're dominating the professional you literally made all of those bets baby size bets like keeping him in
How does he not show? I guess if he doesn’t win main pot.
Hero folded, so V automatically wins the side-pot. V only has to show if he wants to win the main pot. When CO shows the flush, V can just muck.
That's a bit of a sick spot on the river. Could you not block bet like £1k? AK no spade probably has to call and i'm really not sure they would turn that into a bluff.
dishevelled Bart today, what's going on, handsome
No way does he have KK no spade. He would have reraised preflop.
Why not 5 😊bet kings pre
There is an all in hand. You should have had the dealer show his hand. I would have asked to see it, its not un couthe especially considering the 3rd person all in there.
Careful. You're challenging the sacred poker traditions.
It's not a tournament... let people muck in peace.
9s9x
AK with the K spades would have raised turn
Why would AxKs raise the turn? Only better hands call
@@EkoostikMartin-wv8vo AxKs is top pair, top kicker, with a blocker to the nuts.
@@EkoostikMartin-wv8vo even if you're behind you draw to the nuts. And the ace came in. Him having AQ is less likely than him just barreling.
This is just a fold preflop.
The 560 bet shouldnt be a strong hand. That's 14 bb. There is already 19 bb in the pot. With the dead money in the middle he should be jamming unsuited high cards like KQo against a MP open.
Well pull up $10K and get into the game. I'm sure you'll be welcome.
@@Mathemagical55 exactly, he probably plays 1/2 lol